politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Yvette Cooper moves into favourite slot as Corbyn’s successor

That chart is a 'which is the most beautiful camel' chart really isn't it?

Yvette was available at 28 in February. How times change.

Patrick said:

That chart is a 'which is the most beautiful camel' chart really isn't it?

But, as Keynes almost said, we're not trying to judge which is the most beautiful camel, we're trying to judge which camel is the one which the judges will deem most beautiful.

We have a nip !

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@Conorpope: Exodus of capable staffers from Theresa May's top team does not give the sense of a confident government with a positive vision, does it?

@PickardJE: Am told by someone in Number 10 that the mood has changed from "day to night" since Cameron left. twitter.com/Conorpope/stat…

Richard_Nabavi said:

Patrick said:

That chart is a 'which is the most beautiful camel' chart really isn't it?

But, as Keynes almost said, we're not trying to judge which is the most beautiful camel, we're trying to judge which camel is the one which the judges will deem most beautiful.

You're dead right of course. But the end result is still a camel.

@britainelects: Conservative GAIN Kenton East (Harrow) from Labour.

TheScreamingEagles said:

I still wouldn't rule out Diane Abbott.

Now that IS a camel.

Her and Starmer are probably both a bit short - I'm not going to particularly lay any realistic runners this close to the event though.

Those are:

Starmer, Cooper, Ummuna, Nandy, Lewis I think.

YBarddCwsc said:

DavidL said:

She allegedly made the most telling contribution at the PLP meeting on Wednesday as well. I fear her continued ambition is one reason that her even more talented husband is not standing again though. And that is a heavy price for Labour to pay.

Largely agreed. Though AIUI, Ed Balls has simply ruled out standing in Morley & Outwood He hasn't ruled out standing.

Yvette has never really looked to me as though she wanted to be leader. She famously went on holiday while Jazza was canvassing in 2015.

Yesterday he ruled out standing anywhere.

Pulpstar said:

Her and Starmer are probably both a bit short - I'm not going to particularly lay any realistic runners this close to the event though.

Those are:

Starmer, Cooper, Ummuna, Nandy, Lewis I think.

Until they change the system under which any mouth-breathing trot has the same voting rights as an MP, then I wouldn't touch the market with a bargepole (other than for light trading, natch)

Conservatives gain Harrow Kenton East

Con 1585
Lab 1328
LDem 65
Ind 54

She may be a good performer in the HoC when challenging Ministers, as OGH points out, but I've found Ms Cooper ineffective when on the receiving end, sometimes surprisingly poor for someone of her experience.
For this reason, I doubt very much that she'll ever become Labour leader ..... she simply doesn't have that magic ingredient of authority.
As it happens *cough*, I've already declared my hand about an hour ago - I'm going for Heidi (yes really, that's her name) Alexander, available at 55 with Betfair, although I do of course reserve the right to change my mind.

Corbyn won't quit, because Tory expectations have been set so high, that when the tories win a majority of only 60 or so, instead of 150, he will be able to claim that as a moral victory and an indication that the country is on the road to socialism.

Corbyn will do better than polls suggest simply because he is so incredible as PM, and the tories monstering of him so aggressive, that many 2015 labour voter waverers will vote Labour out of fear that the party will get annihilated.

TheScreamingEagles said:

I still wouldn't rule out Diane Abbott.

For what activity?

She won't get to be leader because she won't be nominated. Even the left of the PLP couldn't put her forward.

YBarddCwsc said:

DavidL said:

She allegedly made the most telling contribution at the PLP meeting on Wednesday as well. I fear her continued ambition is one reason that her even more talented husband is not standing again though. And that is a heavy price for Labour to pay.

Largely agreed. Though AIUI, Ed Balls has simply ruled out standing in Morley & Outwood He hasn't ruled out standing someplace else (preferably with a maj>12k).

Yvette has never really looked to me as though she wanted to be leader. She famously went on holiday while Jazza was canvassing in 2015.

I think that is true. I think she sees herself as a campaigner railing against stuff, not a manager. She is probably right but the choice is not great and looks likely to be even more limited on 9th June.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/855375538118119424

Theuniondivvie said:

A tweet from the 1950s just in.

https://twitter.com/johnredwood/status/855363138820206592

The funny bit, of course, is that the car assembled in the UK factory might have a smaller % of content from the UK than the one assembled in France.

Theuniondivvie said:

A tweet from the 1950s just in.

https://twitter.com/johnredwood/status/855363138820206592

Oh dear. Unhelpful.

Pulpstar said:

Her and Starmer are probably both a bit short - I'm not going to particularly lay any realistic runners this close to the event though.

Those are:

Starmer, Cooper, Ummuna, Nandy, Lewis I think.

Umunna may be the leader after next

Interesting table

https://twitter.com/tomfrench85/status/855368963357904897

Things have come to a pretty pass when simply being moderately competent is seen as enough to be seen as the next Labour leader. Yvette Cooper is not terribly impressive, she's dull, mechanical and relentlessly on-message, and the highlight of her ministerial career was the HIPs disaster. Still, in other circumstances she'd be credible as a possible PM, she could coordinate a coherent set of policies to go into a manifesto, she wouldn't gaffe, she'd be able to handle PMQs without difficulty, she wouldn't come over as an economic nutjob, and she's not tainted with support for terrorism, all of which makes her a zillion times more suitable to lead the party than the current incumbent. In a thin field, she ought, logically, to be one of the leading contenders, but I'm not sure logic applies here.

Ipsos France 1st round

Macron 24%
Le Pen 22%
Fillon 19%
Melenchon 19%
http://m.ipsos.fr/presidentielle2017/phone/intention-de-vote.html

GIN1138 said:

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

Her and Starmer are probably both a bit short - I'm not going to particularly lay any realistic runners this close to the event though.

Those are:

Starmer, Cooper, Ummuna, Nandy, Lewis I think.

Umunna may be the leader after next

Umummmmmnananananaananananaanan will never be Labour leader. He doesn't have the temperament for it.

He is a telegenic Blairite and that is what will get Labour back to power in about a decade

Anybody else loving the idea of Ed Balls playing Denis Thatcher?

Mr. Animal, surely a sign he believes in equality of the sexes?

Mr. Calum, hmm. What percentage of people are gay? I wonder if those who think a demographically representative political body is a good thing want more straight people standing as SNP MPs.

[For the record, I don't care. Election should be on merit. It is, however, intellectually indefensible and inconsistent for those who advocate (for example) a perfect gender balance to not oppose over-representation of other groups].

Mr. HYUFD, cheers for that.

HYUFD said:

GIN1138 said:

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

Her and Starmer are probably both a bit short - I'm not going to particularly lay any realistic runners this close to the event though.

Those are:

Starmer, Cooper, Ummuna, Nandy, Lewis I think.

Umunna may be the leader after next

Umummmmmnananananaananananaanan will never be Labour leader. He doesn't have the temperament for it.

He is a telegenic Blairite and that is what will get Labour back to power in about a decade

Yeah.... But it won't be him. Chances are ten years from now he'll have quit politics altogether.

david_herdson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I still wouldn't rule out Diane Abbott.

For what activity?

She won't get to be leader because she won't be nominated. Even the left of the PLP couldn't put her forward.

The more Labour are wiped out the number of nominations to stand as Leader fall.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Things have come to a pretty pass when simply being moderately competent is seen as enough to be seen as the next Labour leader.

Worked (or rather didn't) for Ed Miliband, who I would put at a similar level of ability to Cooper. Problem is they need someone considably better that that to even get to hung parliment position.

The default assumption on here seems to be that post-defeat Labour will suddenly become more moderate?

There's surely an alternative scenario where the surviving MPs are more left-wing (and the mostly moderate MEPs soon lose their jobs anyway), the nomination threshold for a smaller party is lower even without the McDonnell amendment, moderate politicians and members start to drift away.... in which another leader from the left wing is quite possible?

Correction to Harrow result

For Ind 54 should be
UKIP 54

Mr. Llama, agree, but she'd still be miles better than the incumbent.

When you're starving to death, even boiled cabbage is an improvement.

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

Her and Starmer are probably both a bit short - I'm not going to particularly lay any realistic runners this close to the event though.

Those are:

Starmer, Cooper, Ummuna, Nandy, Lewis I think.

Umunna may be the leader after next

Nandy is a smart cookie and has the advantage of being a woman .... pollsters have just woken up to the fact that most women voters vote for women to become party leader, or at least Tory women do, Labour women have never been given the chance. Perhaps their time is nigh.

Lisa's main problem is her voice, but possibly nothing that some training couldn't put right. Scoff if you will, but it IS important.

Slackbladder said:

GIN1138 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/guidofawkes/status/855377673119555584

Interesting. If Labour does put up a candidate against Speaker B so should the Tories...

I assume it's a oversight.

Perhaps. But it would be typical Jezza to do away with "convention" and field a candidate against the Speaker.

peter_from_putney said:

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

Her and Starmer are probably both a bit short - I'm not going to particularly lay any realistic runners this close to the event though.

Those are:

Starmer, Cooper, Ummuna, Nandy, Lewis I think.

Umunna may be the leader after next

Nandy is a smart cookie and has the advantage of being a woman .... pollsters have just woken up to the fact that most women voters vote for women to become party leader, or at least Tory women do, Labour women have never been given the chance. Perhaps their time is nigh.

Lisa's main problem is her voice, but possibly nothing that some training couldn't put right. Scoff if you will, but it IS important.

Maggie found it important enough to lower her speaking voice an octave and slow down her delivery. Went from shrill harridan to patronizing mother, but nevertheless was a huge improvement.

Tony said:

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

Paristonda said:

HYUFD said:

Meanwhile Macron was in conversation with Obama today on defending their 'progressive values'
https://twitter.com/EmmanuelMacron/status/855129811144118274

Smart for him to do so, makes him look like a President in waiting. Obama remains very popular in France and even more so when compared to Trump. Obama obviously didn't make any back of the queue comments to the French so hasn't dented his reputation there either.

It will certainly go down well in most of France and especially in Paris but I think the more depressed industrial areas of France are as unenthused by 'progressive politics' as the rustbelt was in the US and that will be the base for Le Pen's vote in the runoff

Macron will be quite content for it to be him v Le Pen in the runoff. He'd be a locked-on certainty by that point.

The biggest risk for Macron is that his vote doesn't turnout and he gets pipped out of a Fillon v Le Pen runoff.

Probably, though if Macron does get through polls now suggest Le Pen will run him closer than Fillon would

My French other half has gone to bed in a huff , switching to Le Pen from Macron.
The waltzing of the terrorists across the open border from Belgium has gone down very badly.
No doubt she'll be back to Macron after breakfast

What is her position now?

And out of interest, when she was (or now that she is again) intending to vote for Macron, what preference did (or will) she have in R2 if it is between Fillon and Le Pen?

Hypothetical polling stats for R2 indicate there's a sizeable demographic who say they will vote for Macron in R1 but if Macron fails to get into R2 then they will vote for Le Pen against Fillon.

My analysis of polling and voting stats from 2012 makes me think that Le Pen will top R1 and that Fillon is more likely than Macron to join her in the runoff. (I think I've underestimated Fillon's chances in the past, mainly because I think he's a smug git.) But if it's Le Pen versus Macron, how flaky could Macron's support be, in the face of further terror attacks for example, perhaps between the two rounds? Let's hope to goodness there are no further attacks, but it's very likely that there will be street disturbances in Paris at the Mayday weekend (bang between the two rounds) if Le Pen is still in contention. If enough potential floaters think they'll be safer with Le Pen, she'll win.

It may well be people with similar thoughts and preferences to your other half's who decide this election.

IanB2 said:

The default assumption on here seems to be that post-defeat Labour will suddenly become more moderate?

There's surely an alternative scenario where the surviving MPs are more left-wing (and the mostly moderate MEPs soon lose their jobs anyway), the nomination threshold for a smaller party is lower even without the McDonnell amendment, moderate politicians and members start to drift away.... in which another leader from the left wing is quite possible?

It requires Labour members to "do the math". If the Cons are on 48% and Labour on 24%, the only way Labour is going to be in government is by turning over at least one third of current Conservative supporters, by making a pitch that appeals to those that are happy to vote Tory. Talk of "progressive alliances" is a catastrophic distraction. Corbynistas aren't good at maths.

chestnut said:

MarqueeMark said:

Anorak said:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/855375538118119424

London is going to be interesting if there are 10% swings from Labour.....

Dagenham and Rainham, Westminster N, Eltham plus Erith and Thamesmead as well as the four they lost in 2015.

premature to be carried away on 1 council seat. Where are the missing % from last time? Independent?

Leave the breathless extrapolation from one local election to Mark Senior et al :-)

HYUFD said:

Nandy is too left-wing and too lightweight

So.. we should pile on?

IanB2 said:

The default assumption on here seems to be that post-defeat Labour will suddenly become more moderate?

There's surely an alternative scenario where the surviving MPs are more left-wing (and the mostly moderate MEPs soon lose their jobs anyway), the nomination threshold for a smaller party is lower even without the McDonnell amendment, moderate politicians and members start to drift away.... in which another leader from the left wing is quite possible?

If, if there's a big defeat and labout are reduced to sub 200 MPs, then i don't think anyone can predict what might happen.

A proper split of the party might be best option at that point.

YBarddCwsc said:

IanB2 said:

YBarddCwsc said:

IanB2 said:

YBarddCwsc said:

DavidL said:

She allegedly made the most telling contribution at the PLP meeting on Wednesday as well. I fear her continued ambition is one reason that her even more talented husband is not standing again though. And that is a heavy price for Labour to pay.

Largely agreed. Though AIUI, Ed Balls has simply ruled out standing in Morley & Outwood He hasn't ruled out standing.

Yvette has never really looked to me as though she wanted to be leader. She famously went on holiday while Jazza was canvassing in 2015.

Yesterday he ruled out standing anywhere.

Source. Not that I doubt you, just interested to read his reasons.

If Balls is not standing, I guess it means he thinks it is 10 years hard work for the Labour party leader to remould the party. and he'll be too old & exhausted by the end of it.

Most of today's papers. Apparently he fears it would reduce Yvette's chances of succeeding Corbyn (according to the Mail).

...." (according to the Mail)."

So that's one reason we can rule out.

True - although just as likely, it's a convenient answer from Ed that keeps his wife in the spotlight and avoids him having to say he can't be bothered or he doesn't think it's worth it?

calum said:

Interesting table

https://twitter.com/tomfrench85/status/855368963357904897

NZ, as always, leading the world on social issues. But extraordinary that the UK has 3 of the top 11. Rather disproves the notion of post-Brexit Brits as bigots.

Question for Mark S

Re Harrow - was the increase in conservative vote share drawn from both labour and UKIP and why little move to the Lib Dems.

I think you said earlier turnout was 37% - is that high for a local election

Anorak said:

Corrected result. Larger swing than previously.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/855379009844195328

Still a 9% swing or so. In london.

FF43 said:

IanB2 said:

The default assumption on here seems to be that post-defeat Labour will suddenly become more moderate?

There's surely an alternative scenario where the surviving MPs are more left-wing (and the mostly moderate MEPs soon lose their jobs anyway), the nomination threshold for a smaller party is lower even without the McDonnell amendment, moderate politicians and members start to drift away.... in which another leader from the left wing is quite possible?

It requires Labour members to "do the math". If the Cons are on 48% and Labour on 24%, the only way Labour is going to be in government is by turning over at least one third of current Conservative supporters, by making a pitch that appeals to those that are happy to vote Tory. Talk of "progressive alliances" is a catastrophic distraction. Corbynistas aren't good at maths.

We're rediscovering that the UK is a small 'c' conservative country and that the leftier your election offering is (leader or policy) the shittier you're going to do.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Question for Mark S

Re Harrow - was the increase in conservative vote share drawn from both labour and UKIP and why little move to the Lib Dems.

I think you said earlier turnout was 37% - is that high for a local election

The situation is complicated by the 15% or so scored by three independents the last time around. It depends on who they were - if some sort of residents' group then they might have been Tory-leaning voters already.

The turnout is about par for an outer London local by-election. In the set of London elections you'd be looking at nearer 50%.