The Betfair Sportsbook price on the Conservatives in Birmingham Edgbaston is astonishingly generous - I've backed it from 11/10 and it's still 4/5. Without Gisela Stuart for Labour, this must surely be closer to 2/5 or shorter.
Didn't the constituency vote heavily for remain?
It voted Remain. I'm not sure the average Edgbastonian is a natural supporter of Jeremy Corbyn though. A seat held by Labour at the last election against the odds on a huge personal vote looks exposed with a large further adverse swing and without that personal vote.
Is she definitely not standing? She was being somewhat ambiguous on R4 yesterday morning. Need to speak to my Constituency party etc.
Another loss. Not on the Osborne scale of course but another distinctive and interesting voice lost from the Commons. There are far too few people of talent in UK politics these days. It looks as if after this election there may be even fewer.
Apart from her backing for Brexit what was distinctive and interesting about Gisela Stuart? She seemed a straight down the line moderate Labour MP to me.
This eulogising of Gisela shows the Tory love of the turncoat. The rats are never quite as attractive when they turn the other way.
Just imagine the Tory clamour for a Damehood for Kate Hoey if she gave up her seat!
Others in her own party remember her canoodling with Nigel Farage at the time he brought out his 'Syrian Refugee' poster.
TM seems to have calculated that enough remain Tories will stay with her to target UKIP and Labour leavers with her Brexit policy.
I am not one of those who will stay. I may be a Conservative party member but I am voting Lib Dem this election after the Daily Mail headlines today. My seat is SNP solid so it will make little difference but it is the principle.
I never thought I would see the split up of the UK but today is the first day that I can imagine it happening.
OT Christies has an auction of "geopolitical snapshots" including posters and leaflets covering international and British politics from the 1930s to the 80s (when you could join Labour for £3).
I am voting Lib Dem this election after the Daily Mail headlines today. My seat is SNP solid so it will make little difference but it is the principle.
You decide your vote on principle on the basis of Daily Mail headlines?
TM seems to have calculated that enough remain Tories will stay with her to target UKIP and Labour leavers with her Brexit policy.
I am not one of those who will stay. I may be a Conservative party member but I am voting Lib Dem this election after the Daily Mail headlines today. My seat is SNP solid so it will make little difference but it is the principle.
I never thought I would see the split up of the UK but today is the first day that I can imagine it happening.
What are Mail saying?
"Shoot the Traitors?"
Basically. I'm glad its cost the Tories at least one vote.
I am not one of those who will stay. I may be a Conservative party member but I am voting Lib Dem this election after the Daily Mail headlines today. My seat is SNP solid so it will make little difference but it is the principle.
The Brexiteer in my solid Tory constituency will also not be getting my vote this time round
The Betfair Sportsbook price on the Conservatives in Birmingham Edgbaston is astonishingly generous - I've backed it from 11/10 and it's still 4/5. Without Gisela Stuart for Labour, this must surely be closer to 2/5 or shorter.
Didn't the constituency vote heavily for remain?
It voted Remain. I'm not sure the average Edgbastonian is a natural supporter of Jeremy Corbyn though. A seat held by Labour at the last election against the odds on a huge personal vote looks exposed with a large further adverse swing and without that personal vote.
Is she definitely not standing? She was being somewhat ambiguous on R4 yesterday morning. Need to speak to my Constituency party etc.
Another loss. Not on the Osborne scale of course but another distinctive and interesting voice lost from the Commons. There are far too few people of talent in UK politics these days. It looks as if after this election there may be even fewer.
Apart from her backing for Brexit what was distinctive and interesting about Gisela Stuart? She seemed a straight down the line moderate Labour MP to me.
This eulogising of Gisela shows the Tory love of the turncoat. The rats are never quite as attractive when they turn the other way.
Just imagine the Tory clamour for a Damehood for Kate Hoey if she gave up her seat!
Others in her own party remember her canoodling with Nigel Farage at the time he brought out his 'Syrian Refugee' poster.
I am not one of those who will stay. I may be a Conservative party member but I am voting Lib Dem this election after the Daily Mail headlines today. My seat is SNP solid so it will make little difference but it is the principle.
The Brexiteer in my solid Tory constituency will also not be getting my vote this time round
I'm guessing it didn't take an awful mail headline to sway you.
If the lost UKIP votes are ex-Tories returning to the fold, doesn't that mainly mean much bigger Tory majorities in seats they already hold? Obviously, the Tories are going to win a number of Labour-held marginals, but I suspect that a lot if their extra votes are going to come in seats they already hold. That may mean Labour closer to 170/180 seats than 140/150.
I think there is an element of truth in that. I banged on and on in 2015 about how the UKIP vote was likely to make the Tory vote more efficient than it had been in 2010 and an unwind of it is not likely to help in a lot of seats. But some Tories with smallish majorities facing Lib Dems will be glad of it as will some Tory challengers hunting down Labour majorities smaller than the UKIP vote in their constituencies last time out.
The best constituency bets are likely to be in Labour held seats with a strong vote for both Con and UKIP. I have just had a punt on Tories take Dagenham on Sportsbook. 11/4 seemed good odds.
I appreciate that I have a huge vested interest in it as the constituency's Conservative Association's chairman but let me mention Hemsworth. This used to be absolutely rock-solid Labour - it had a 70% Lab share in 1997 and as high as 85% in the 1960s - but times have changed. Trickett only won 51% in 2015, with Con and UKIP in the low 20s a piece. It was heavily Leave and ticks the boxes matching the other demographics that have seen disproportional swings since the last GE. I'm not saying it'll be a gain. It probably won't be a target and will have such activist support as is willing asked to help out in Wakefield, Dewsbury and Morley & Outwood. But it's the sort of seat which if the 20+ poll leads remain, might come onto the radar.
The Betfair Sportsbook price on the Conservatives in Birmingham Edgbaston is astonishingly generous - I've backed it from 11/10 and it's still 4/5. Without Gisela Stuart for Labour, this must surely be closer to 2/5 or shorter.
Didn't the constituency vote heavily for remain?
It voted Remain. I'm not sure the average Edgbastonian is a natural supporter of Jeremy Corbyn though. A seat held by Labour at the last election against the odds on a huge personal vote looks exposed with a large further adverse swing and without that personal vote.
Is she definitely not standing? She was being somewhat ambiguous on R4 yesterday morning. Need to speak to my Constituency party etc.
Another loss. Not on the Osborne scale of course but another distinctive and interesting voice lost from the Commons. There are far too few people of talent in UK politics these days. It looks as if after this election there may be even fewer.
Apart from her backing for Brexit what was distinctive and interesting about Gisela Stuart? She seemed a straight down the line moderate Labour MP to me.
This eulogising of Gisela shows the Tory love of the turncoat. The rats are never quite as attractive when they turn the other way.
Just imagine the Tory clamour for a Damehood for Kate Hoey if she gave up her seat!
Others in her own party remember her canoodling with Nigel Farage at the time he brought out his 'Syrian Refugee' poster.
She's not a turncoat. She took the other side in the referendum from the Tory leadership and the same one as the Labour leadership, deep down.
I am not one of those who will stay. I may be a Conservative party member but I am voting Lib Dem this election after the Daily Mail headlines today. My seat is SNP solid so it will make little difference but it is the principle.
The Brexiteer in my solid Tory constituency will also not be getting my vote this time round
I am not one of those who will stay. I may be a Conservative party member but I am voting Lib Dem this election after the Daily Mail headlines today. My seat is SNP solid so it will make little difference but it is the principle.
The Brexiteer in my solid Tory constituency will also not be getting my vote this time round
I'm guessing it didn't take an awful mail headline to sway you.
I am not one of those who will stay. I may be a Conservative party member but I am voting Lib Dem this election after the Daily Mail headlines today. My seat is SNP solid so it will make little difference but it is the principle.
The Brexiteer in my solid Tory constituency will also not be getting my vote this time round
Getting rid of the triple lock is a bold move. It shows a certain hubris and complacency to start doing massive diarrhetic shits on your core vote assuming they have nowhere else to go.
They won't care about the triple lock as long as the increases come anyway. What getting rid of the pledge does do is give wriggle room if there's a legitimate reason to cut back, such as a recession.
If the lost UKIP votes are ex-Tories returning to the fold, doesn't that mainly mean much bigger Tory majorities in seats they already hold? Obviously, the Tories are going to win a number of Labour-held marginals, but I suspect that a lot if their extra votes are going to come in seats they already hold. That may mean Labour closer to 170/180 seats than 140/150.
I think there is an element of truth in that. I banged on and on in 2015 about how the UKIP vote was likely to make the Tory vote more efficient than it had been in 2010 and an unwind of it is not likely to help in a lot of seats. But some Tories with smallish majorities facing Lib Dems will be glad of it as will some Tory challengers hunting down Labour majorities smaller than the UKIP vote in their constituencies last time out.
IMHO, the unpopularity of the Labour party in many working class Leave constituencies puts seats in play that shouldn't be in play. IMO, all but 90 or so Labour seats are vulnerable (I'm not forecasting 140 Labour losses, but I am forecasting losses up to the 91st safest seat).
I think they might lose some of those seats, that even on a 20 point Tory lead should on paper be safe, but they'll also hold ones that people think are good as gone. The lds are getting a bit carried away and the Tories will also pile up votes where they don't need them.
As was discussed yesterday, Curtice doesn't seem to think it need be that conclusive given the extent of so many safe Lab seats.
I think this will be harder for TM than many think, she is uncomfortable campaigning and 7 weeks is a long time, I am not sure she will handle the constant media and political sniping as well as her predecessor, her position on the TV debates hints at a PM uncomfortable in the spotlight, opponent s need to focus on the fact that the Tories are more divided than the media state - John Major's comments and Hezza's, among others should provide ample evidence of splits which journos worth their salt will draw on with MPs sympathetic to the EU
UKIP is a real unknown, harping on about BREXIT may actually fuel their support so I am not sure after 3-4 weeks that message will remain attractive. Austerity is a real issue for many in local govt, the public services and those on benefits - my overall conclusion, lets not get too carried away and there is a lot of froth about 50% of the vote.......
Happy to be corrected, not sure where to punt.....turnout perhaps?
Getting rid of the triple lock is a bold move. It shows a certain hubris and complacency to start doing massive diarrhetic shits on your core vote assuming they have nowhere else to go.
They won't care about the triple lock as long as the increases come anyway. What getting rid of the pledge does do is give wriggle room if there's a legitimate reason to cut back, such as a recession.
TM seems to have calculated that enough remain Tories will stay with her to target UKIP and Labour leavers with her Brexit policy.
I am not one of those who will stay. I may be a Conservative party member but I am voting Lib Dem this election after the Daily Mail headlines today. My seat is SNP solid so it will make little difference but it is the principle.
I never thought I would see the split up of the UK but today is the first day that I can imagine it happening.
What are Mail saying?
"Shoot the Traitors?"
I guess if you voted Remain because you genuinely estimate that to to be in your country's interest, but accept a decision not to on democratic grounds, you're not going to be happy to be seen as saboteur to be crushed. It depends on whether you reckon Theresa May thinks of you like that too. She probably wouldn't use those words, of course. Her rhetoric justifying the election was pretty authoritarian and very similar to that of Erdogan's justification of his referendum, even if the effects will be different.
On topic it was a bloody disgrace that the CPS leaked to Channel 4 news the other day.
As I said at the time. Doesn't surprise me though - politicised incompetence is a key behavioural skill within the CPS. It genuinely surprises me that Starmer has such enthusiastic supporters here given his background there.
I am not one of those who will stay. I may be a Conservative party member but I am voting Lib Dem this election after the Daily Mail headlines today. My seat is SNP solid so it will make little difference but it is the principle.
The Brexiteer in my solid Tory constituency will also not be getting my vote this time round
We are leaving the EU. Get over it.
You can vote for people based on their past record, I have a feeling the Tories will be keen to do so for corbyn. (It's also more relevant for him, since he makes such a deal of consistent principles).
I think the CPS would be loathe to make an announcement during an election especially given Starmer position on one side of the fence
Moreover even if individual MPs are found guilty if they have been cleanly re-elected in the meantime I think the courts will not disbar them. Big fine for the party possibly, but once the electorate has spoken that is it.
Any MP convicted automatically loses their seat and is barred from voting or holding elected office for 3 years under the Representation of the Peoples Act 1983 S173. The courts do not have any say in this. They cannot decide that an MP can remain in office after conviction.
Just a side-note to this election stuff: if Corbyn does toddle off afterwards, assuming he loses, it must make the odds on Sadiq Khan becoming leader rather longer.
Also, this is off-topic, but given the reaction to what may Tim Farron's views on homosexuality (even though he voted for Gay marriage) I wonder how the GOP are thought of on here, given that according to Pew Research, 54% of them think homosexuality is morally unacceptable.
The howls of outrage that the EU plan to cut us off from data have been deafening........so I expect they won't mind when we do the same.......
And you post that as though excluding each other from valuable sources of information were somehow to be celebrated.
And there's me thinking the Tories were the soi-disant party of economic growth.
The furore from the REMAINERS that the UK might not share data with the EU in the absence of an agreement has not been matched when the EU plans the same.
May's spokesman says she May appear before a TV audience at an individual event but not head to head with other candidates in an echo of what the party leaders did in 2005 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39649119
TM seems to have calculated that enough remain Tories will stay with her to target UKIP and Labour leavers with her Brexit policy.
I am not one of those who will stay. I may be a Conservative party member but I am voting Lib Dem this election after the Daily Mail headlines today. My seat is SNP solid so it will make little difference but it is the principle.
I never thought I would see the split up of the UK but today is the first day that I can imagine it happening.
What are Mail saying?
"Shoot the Traitors?"
I guess if you voted Remain because you genuinely estimate that to to be in your country's interest, but accept a decision not to on democratic grounds, you're not going to be happy to be seen as saboteur to be crushed. It depends on whether you reckon Theresa May thinks of you like that too. She probably wouldn't use those words, of course. Her rhetoric justifying the election was pretty authoritarian and very similar to that of Erdogan's justification of his referendum, even if the effects will be different.
I would not compare her to erdogan, but while she does not go as inflammatory as the Mail, her attitude and language make clear she Regards opposition of any kind as illegitimate, and she stirs up the media rhetoric, I have to assume intentionally. She 'warned' the judges not to go against democracy according to the telegraph when her own lawyers conceded they were doing their job, she is still calling out the lords for disruption when in fact they didn't, they did their job, and backed down when the commons rejected the changes they suggested, and so on.
Also, this is off-topic, but given the reaction to what may Tim Farron's views on homosexuality (even though he voted for Gay marriage) I wonder how the GOP are thought of on here, given that according to Pew Research, 54% of them think homosexuality is morally unacceptable.
Getting rid of the triple lock is a bold move. It shows a certain hubris and complacency to start doing massive diarrhetic shits on your core vote assuming they have nowhere else to go.
They won't care about the triple lock as long as the increases come anyway. What getting rid of the pledge does do is give wriggle room if there's a legitimate reason to cut back, such as a recession.
Or a day with a Y in it.
Good. It might be risky to assume that core vote has nowhere to go, but from what I've read on here the policy is unsustainable, a grey vote bribe, and better she drop it, take some hit and still win, than win then drop it. So wiggle room a good thing.
If the lost UKIP votes are ex-Tories returning to the fold, doesn't that mainly mean much bigger Tory majorities in seats they already hold? Obviously, the Tories are going to win a number of Labour-held marginals, but I suspect that a lot if their extra votes are going to come in seats they already hold. That may mean Labour closer to 170/180 seats than 140/150.
I think there is an element of truth in that. I banged on and on in 2015 about how the UKIP vote was likely to make the Tory vote more efficient than it had been in 2010 and an unwind of it is not likely to help in a lot of seats. But some Tories with smallish majorities facing Lib Dems will be glad of it as will some Tory challengers hunting down Labour majorities smaller than the UKIP vote in their constituencies last time out.
The best constituency bets are likely to be in Labour held seats with a strong vote for both Con and UKIP. I have just had a punt on Tories take Dagenham on Sportsbook. 11/4 seemed good odds.
I appreciate that I have a huge vested interest in it as the constituency's Conservative Association's chairman but let me mention Hemsworth. This used to be absolutely rock-solid Labour - it had a 70% Lab share in 1997 and as high as 85% in the 1960s - but times have changed. Trickett only won 51% in 2015, with Con and UKIP in the low 20s a piece. It was heavily Leave and ticks the boxes matching the other demographics that have seen disproportional swings since the last GE. I'm not saying it'll be a gain. It probably won't be a target and will have such activist support as is willing asked to help out in Wakefield, Dewsbury and Morley & Outwood. But it's the sort of seat which if the 20+ poll leads remain, might come onto the radar.
The potential for a shift in WWC support away from Labour to the Tories (some via UKIP) is definitely there and could dramatically impact some Labour seats that look, on the face of it, to be impervious.
I suspect like many are saying on here that we will see closer-run contests in LD/Tory battleground seats in the South, and Tory/Lab battleground seats in London, and some wild swings in constituencies in the Midlands and the North.
Labour's electoral coalition could lose one of its biggest components in this election. Whether that's permanent or not, tricky to say. I think May potentially has a large personal vote, more than anything (the leadership and Brexit factors are in play here). As I said last night, you could not imagine Cameron targeting the Labour North with anything like the chances of success.
Also, this is off-topic, but given the reaction to what may Tim Farron's views on homosexuality (even though he voted for Gay marriage) I wonder how the GOP are thought of on here, given that according to Pew Research, 54% of them think homosexuality is morally unacceptable.
Well, they are definitely on the right track on human origins, with only 40% of them accepting the quasi-scientific tenets of so-called "Darwinism", so I would also have a lot of respect for their views on other matters
Also, this is off-topic, but given the reaction to what may Tim Farron's views on homosexuality (even though he voted for Gay marriage) I wonder how the GOP are thought of on here, given that according to Pew Research, 54% of them think homosexuality is morally unacceptable.
I guess I was shocked that more than half those who identify with a mainstream party have such views. Also 46% believing premarital sex is morally unacceptable I thought was pretty shocking given the age we live in now.
If it were to emerge that 10 Downing Street had been tipped off by someone within CPS that prosecutions were likely - it would be deeply damaging to the Conservatives and Mrs May's reputation.
If the lost UKIP votes are ex-Tories returning to the fold, doesn't that mainly mean much bigger Tory majorities in seats they already hold? Obviously, the Tories are going to win a number of Labour-held marginals, but I suspect that a lot if their extra votes are going to come in seats they already hold. That may mean Labour closer to 170/180 seats than 140/150.
I think there is an element of truth in that. I banged on and on in 2015 about how the UKIP vote was likely to make the Tory vote more efficient than it had been in 2010 and an unwind of it is not likely to help in a lot of seats. But some Tories with smallish majorities facing Lib Dems will be glad of it as will some Tory challengers hunting down Labour majorities smaller than the UKIP vote in their constituencies last time out.
IMHO, the unpopularity of the Labour party in many working class Leave constituencies puts seats in play that shouldn't be in play. IMO, all but 90 or so Labour seats are vulnerable (I'm not forecasting 140 Labour losses, but I am forecasting losses up to the 91st safest seat).
I think they might lose some of those seats, that even on a 20 point Tory lead should on paper be safe, but they'll also hold ones that people think are good as gone. The lds are getting a bit carried away and the Tories will also pile up votes where they don't need them.
As was discussed yesterday, Curtice doesn't seem to think it need be that conclusive given the extent of so many safe Lab seats.
The more cautious Tories are prepping for 50-80 it seems. Shirt of major changes orid forbid Diane Abbott being correct, that looks solid, it's the 130 maj crowd who will be disappointed
Thanks for letting me know Scott. However, I tend to get info directly from my CLP secretary.
Oh, and the reason for the '2018' tag is that we were gearing up for the all-out elections to Leeds City Council next year. Not because we don't know what year it is.
If it were to emerge that 10 Downing Street had been tipped off by someone within CPS that prosecutions were likely - it would be deeply damaging to the Conservatives and Mrs May's reputation.
Perhaps No 10 overheard them gossiping to C4 news?
Also, this is off-topic, but given the reaction to what may Tim Farron's views on homosexuality (even though he voted for Gay marriage) I wonder how the GOP are thought of on here, given that according to Pew Research, 54% of them think homosexuality is morally unacceptable.
I guess I was shocked that more than half those who identify with a mainstream party have such views. Also 46% believing premarital sex is morally unacceptable I thought was pretty shocking given the age we live in now.
Yes, but the median age of the population is 40, the moral attitudes of the younger generations are often very different to those of the older generations.
If it were to emerge that 10 Downing Street had been tipped off by someone within CPS that prosecutions were likely - it would be deeply damaging to the Conservatives and Mrs May's reputation.
Damaging, yes, but deeply? Less clear. People forgive or ignore a lot if they line one side enough, or dislike the other. Heck, politicians under outright investigation in France could still win the presidency, if they're lucky. May's so far ahead, she can afford a hit so long as it's a one off.
Also, this is off-topic, but given the reaction to what may Tim Farron's views on homosexuality (even though he voted for Gay marriage) I wonder how the GOP are thought of on here, given that according to Pew Research, 54% of them think homosexuality is morally unacceptable.
I guess I was shocked that more than half those who identify with a mainstream party have such views. Also 46% believing premarital sex is morally unacceptable I thought was pretty shocking given the age we live in now.
Joking aside, the opinions of US Republicans are in line with public opinion in the world as a whole.
24% may yet be a giddy aspiration for Labour come 8 June.
Would it really make a difference? They may not know about his past but they surely already know he's a dishonest bully with a very limited intellect. If they're still willing to vote for him with that cleared up, then surely the rest will just be shrugged at?
I'd be more worried, if I were Labour, that his policy offerings on tax, housing and public spending will spook potential voters fearing an imminent Fourth Great Depression (while we're still stuck in number 3).
If it were to emerge that 10 Downing Street had been tipped off by someone within CPS that prosecutions were likely - it would be deeply damaging to the Conservatives and Mrs May's reputation.
Damaging, yes, but deeply? Less clear. People forgive or ignore a lot if they line one side enough, or dislike the other. Heck, politicians under outright investigation in France could still win the presidency, if they're lucky. May's so far ahead, she can afford a hit so long as it's a one off.
You must be new here. Hyperbole is the name of the game on PB.
Ms. Apocalypse, well, quite. It's a huge and disconcerting cultural difference.
I don't have the link, alas, but some time ago (maybe 3-4 years) a friend from the US who lives in the UK, and has done for some time, shared a study of attitudes towards atheism.
I think the question people (theists from America) were asked was regarding the sort of people with whom they'd like to accept a lift. Rapists and atheists came equal last.
TM seems to have calculated that enough remain Tories will stay with her to target UKIP and Labour leavers with her Brexit policy.
I am not one of those who will stay. I may be a Conservative party member but I am voting Lib Dem this election after the Daily Mail headlines today. My seat is SNP solid so it will make little difference but it is the principle.
I never thought I would see the split up of the UK but today is the first day that I can imagine it happening.
Unionist parties may actually gain some seats from the SNP
Also, this is off-topic, but given the reaction to what may Tim Farron's views on homosexuality (even though he voted for Gay marriage) I wonder how the GOP are thought of on here, given that according to Pew Research, 54% of them think homosexuality is morally unacceptable.
Well, they are definitely on the right track on human origins, with only 40% of them accepting the quasi-scientific tenets of so-called "Darwinism", so I would also have a lot of respect for their views on other matters
You don't believe in evolution (or maybe you're being sarscastic and I'm not picking it up)?
Interestingly enough, that link says that 60% of Republicans believe humans were created 10,000 years ago by God. More worringly, it's view shared by a significant minority of Democrats and Independents.
Thanks for letting me know Scott. However, I tend to get info directly from my CLP secretary.
Oh, and the reason for the '2018' tag is that we were gearing up for the all-out elections to Leeds City Council next year. Not because we don't know what year it is.
What could possibly have happened in 1973 that gave a big and long-lasting boost to the UK economy?
Are you attributing that to one thing? Because that would be truly economically illiterate.
Over the last few decades global trade barriers have come down, currencies are now generally free floating, telecommunications advances have made a huge difference to trade, containerisation and ever larger ships have dramatically cut costs, and labour costs in developing economies are tiny.
I would put EU membership quite far down the list of significant changes to UK trade.
Also, this is off-topic, but given the reaction to what may Tim Farron's views on homosexuality (even though he voted for Gay marriage) I wonder how the GOP are thought of on here, given that according to Pew Research, 54% of them think homosexuality is morally unacceptable.
A majority of Tory voters opposed gay marriage when the bill legalising it was passed, most GOP voters also oppose abortion too in that poll and a plurality oppose pre marital sex as well
TM seems to have calculated that enough remain Tories will stay with her to target UKIP and Labour leavers with her Brexit policy.
I am not one of those who will stay. I may be a Conservative party member but I am voting Lib Dem this election after the Daily Mail headlines today. My seat is SNP solid so it will make little difference but it is the principle.
I never thought I would see the split up of the UK but today is the first day that I can imagine it happening.
Unionist parties may actually gain some seats from the SNP
I agree as people hate the uncertainity that SNP has created.
If the lost UKIP votes are ex-Tories returning to the fold, doesn't that mainly mean much bigger Tory majorities in seats they already hold? Obviously, the Tories are going to win a number of Labour-held marginals, but I suspect that a lot if their extra votes are going to come in seats they already hold. That may mean Labour closer to 170/180 seats than 140/150.
I think there is an element of truth in that. I banged on and on in 2015 about how the UKIP vote was likely to make the Tory vote more efficient than it had been in 2010 and an unwind of it is not likely to help in a lot of seats. But some Tories with smallish majorities facing Lib Dems will be glad of it as will some Tory challengers hunting down Labour majorities smaller than the UKIP vote in their constituencies last time out.
IMHO, the unpopularity of the Labour party in many working class Leave constituencies puts seats in play that shouldn't be in play. IMO, all but 90 or so Labour seats are vulnerable (I'm not forecasting 140 Labour losses, but I am forecasting losses up to the 91st safest seat).
I think they might lose some of those seats, that even on a 20 point Tory lead should on paper be safe, but they'll also hold ones that people think are good as gone. The lds are getting a bit carried away and the Tories will also pile up votes where they don't need them.
As was discussed yesterday, Curtice doesn't seem to think it need be that conclusive given the extent of so many safe Lab seats.
The more cautious Tories are prepping for 50-80 it seems. Shirt of major changes orid forbid Diane Abbott being correct, that looks solid, it's the 130 maj crowd who will be disappointed
Thanks for letting me know Scott. However, I tend to get info directly from my CLP secretary.
Oh, and the reason for the '2018' tag is that we were gearing up for the all-out elections to Leeds City Council next year. Not because we don't know what year it is.
Hey, Sandy, all the jokes about the current Labour Party and time are about them being stuck in the 1970s or the age of the dinosaurs (delete as appropriate).
I would actually be glad to think Labour have moved on a year - by then Corbyn and Macdonnell will have left the party or been expelled and unable to damage it further!!!
TM seems to have calculated that enough remain Tories will stay with her to target UKIP and Labour leavers with her Brexit policy.
I am not one of those who will stay. I may be a Conservative party member but I am voting Lib Dem this election after the Daily Mail headlines today. My seat is SNP solid so it will make little difference but it is the principle.
I never thought I would see the split up of the UK but today is the first day that I can imagine it happening.
Unionist parties may actually gain some seats from the SNP
I agree as people hate the uncertainity that SNP has created.
The Scottish economy has been downhill fast since the referendum.
Ms. Apocalypse, well, quite. It's a huge and disconcerting cultural difference.
I don't have the link, alas, but some time ago (maybe 3-4 years) a friend from the US who lives in the UK, and has done for some time, shared a study of attitudes towards atheism.
I think the question people (theists from America) were asked was regarding the sort of people with whom they'd like to accept a lift. Rapists and atheists came equal last.
Being an open atheist would be a bar to getting elected in the US, outside of some very Blue districts.
What could possibly have happened in 1973 that gave a big and long-lasting boost to the UK economy?
Are you attributing that to one thing? Because that would be truly economically illiterate.
Over the last few decades global trade barriers have come down, currencies are now generally free floating, telecommunications advances have made a huge difference to trade, containerisation and ever larger ships have dramatically cut costs, and labour costs in developing economies are tiny.
I would put EU membership quite far down the list of significant changes to UK trade.
On a scale of 0 to 0, how significant do you think the opportunity is from signing 'our own trade deals' versus those negotiated through the EU?
If the lost UKIP votes are ex-Tories returning to the fold, doesn't that mainly mean much bigger Tory majorities in seats they already hold? Obviously, the Tories are going to win a number of Labour-held marginals, but I suspect that a lot if their extra votes are going to come in seats they already hold. That may mean Labour closer to 170/180 seats than 140/150.
I think there is an element of truth in that. I banged on and on in 2015 about how the UKIP vote was likely to make the Tory vote more efficient than it had been in 2010 and an unwind of it is not likely to help in a lot of seats. But some Tories with smallish majorities facing Lib Dems will be glad of it as will some Tory challengers hunting down Labour majorities smaller than the UKIP vote in their constituencies last time out.
IMHO, the unpopularity of the Labour party in many working class Leave constituencies puts seats in play that shouldn't be in play. IMO, all but 90 or so Labour seats are vulnerable (I'm not forecasting 140 Labour losses, but I am forecasting losses up to the 91st safest seat).
I think they might lose some of those seats, that even on a 20 point Tory lead should on paper be safe, but they'll also hold ones that people think are good as gone. The lds are getting a bit carried away and the Tories will also pile up votes where they don't need them.
Actually, from what SeanF posted yesterday, the Tories seem to getting big swings in Labour seats and bigger swings in Labour Leave seats - along with only small swings in their own seats. That is exactly where they need them to take seats off Labour in midlands, Wales and the North.
24% may yet be a giddy aspiration for Labour come 8 June.
Would it really make a difference? They may not know about his past but they surely already know he's a dishonest bully with a very limited intellect. If they're still willing to vote for him with that cleared up, then surely the rest will just be shrugged at?
I'd be more worried, if I were Labour, that his policy offerings on tax, housing and public spending will spook potential voters fearing an imminent Fourth Great Depression (while we're still stuck in number 3).
I don't think the man in the street thinks of corbyn as a dishonest bully. Outside of him having the occasional petulant moan at a press conference all they'll have seen of him is a rather soothing, gentle manner. And since he was plucked from obscurity most won't know about his past views and if he has been dishonest.
The man in the street may think him a fool, but not dishonest or a bully in my opinion.
What could possibly have happened in 1973 that gave a big and long-lasting boost to the UK economy?
Are you attributing that to one thing? Because that would be truly economically illiterate.
Over the last few decades global trade barriers have come down, currencies are now generally free floating, telecommunications advances have made a huge difference to trade, containerisation and ever larger ships have dramatically cut costs, and labour costs in developing economies are tiny.
I would put EU membership quite far down the list of significant changes to UK trade.
On a scale of 0 to 0, how significant do you think the opportunity is form signing 'our own trade deals' versus those negotiated through the EU?
Makes you wonder why any country not in the EU would negotiate trade deals.
Thanks for letting me know Scott. However, I tend to get info directly from my CLP secretary.
Oh, and the reason for the '2018' tag is that we were gearing up for the all-out elections to Leeds City Council next year. Not because we don't know what year it is.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges Yesterday McDonnell said Labour would target anyone earning over £70,000. Today Thornberry won't back him. And so it begins...
Thanks for letting me know Scott. However, I tend to get info directly from my CLP secretary.
Oh, and the reason for the '2018' tag is that we were gearing up for the all-out elections to Leeds City Council next year. Not because we don't know what year it is.
So is Ed Balls standing or not?
I doubt it, he is a Labour politician who can kind of understand numbers.
Also, this is off-topic, but given the reaction to what may Tim Farron's views on homosexuality (even though he voted for Gay marriage) I wonder how the GOP are thought of on here, given that according to Pew Research, 54% of them think homosexuality is morally unacceptable.
I guess I was shocked that more than half those who identify with a mainstream party have such views. Also 46% believing premarital sex is morally unacceptable I thought was pretty shocking given the age we live in now.
If you are a strict Catholic or evangelical Christian or Muslim you would also hold those views
TM seems to have calculated that enough remain Tories will stay with her to target UKIP and Labour leavers with her Brexit policy.
I am not one of those who will stay. I may be a Conservative party member but I am voting Lib Dem this election after the Daily Mail headlines today. My seat is SNP solid so it will make little difference but it is the principle.
I never thought I would see the split up of the UK but today is the first day that I can imagine it happening.
Unionist parties may actually gain some seats from the SNP
Unfortunately that does not really speak to the longer term chances of the union. They did better than coukd have been dreamed last time, losing a handful of seats doesn't make them not the most popular party in Scotland and a few percentage points from victory.
TM seems to have calculated that enough remain Tories will stay with her to target UKIP and Labour leavers with her Brexit policy.
I am not one of those who will stay. I may be a Conservative party member but I am voting Lib Dem this election after the Daily Mail headlines today. My seat is SNP solid so it will make little difference but it is the principle.
I never thought I would see the split up of the UK but today is the first day that I can imagine it happening.
Unionist parties may actually gain some seats from the SNP
I agree as people hate the uncertainity that SNP has created.
The Scottish economy has been downhill fast since the referendum.
The first estimate of the latest quarter's GDP is due next week.
Scotland contracted by 0.2% in the last quarter. Another contraction would be two successive quarters, so technically a recession. Zero growth in 2016.
TM seems to have calculated that enough remain Tories will stay with her to target UKIP and Labour leavers with her Brexit policy.
I am not one of those who will stay. I may be a Conservative party member but I am voting Lib Dem this election after the Daily Mail headlines today. My seat is SNP solid so it will make little difference but it is the principle.
I never thought I would see the split up of the UK but today is the first day that I can imagine it happening.
Thanks for letting me know Scott. However, I tend to get info directly from my CLP secretary.
Oh, and the reason for the '2018' tag is that we were gearing up for the all-out elections to Leeds City Council next year. Not because we don't know what year it is.
Hey, Sandy, all the jokes about the current Labour Party and time are about them being stuck in the 1970s or the age of the dinosaurs (delete as appropriate).
I would actually be glad to think Labour have moved on a year - by then Corbyn and Macdonnell will have left the party or been expelled and unable to damage it further!!!
It did occur to me yesterday that our job in Leeds next year will likely be a lot easier in a post-Corbyn world.
I presume it is too late for the CONS to rush through the proposed constituency boundary changes?
I posted in detail on this early in one of yesterday's threads. The likelihood is that they will continue on the original timetable, be agreed in 2018, ready for a 2021/22 GE. But the legislation will probably need to be revisited at some point and there may well be calls for a delay, or re-start with more up-to-date data. It depends on the size of the Tory majority and how much they like the revised proposals.
Also, this is off-topic, but given the reaction to what may Tim Farron's views on homosexuality (even though he voted for Gay marriage) I wonder how the GOP are thought of on here, given that according to Pew Research, 54% of them think homosexuality is morally unacceptable.
I guess I was shocked that more than half those who identify with a mainstream party have such views. Also 46% believing premarital sex is morally unacceptable I thought was pretty shocking given the age we live in now.
Yes, but the median age of the population is 40, the moral attitudes of the younger generations are often very different to those of the older generations.
Oh yes, I'd agree with you there. Polling (by pew again) shows that the younger GOPers are generally more to left than older GOPers, and that they are more supportive of gay marriage. Hopefully they'll take the party in a bit of a more moderate direction in the future. The party have had issues in recent years with Millenials (1980s to mid 1990s voters) who appear to be more firmly Democrat/Dem leaning than previous generations of younger voters. I think their stances on gay marriage, climate change and what some GOPers have said regarding gender roles have played a part in this.
''But in addition to the generation’s Democratic tendency, Millennials who identify with the GOP are also less conservative than Republicans in other generations: Among the roughly one-third of Millennials who affiliate with or lean Republican, just 31% have a mix of political values that are right-of-center, while about half (51%) take a mix of liberal and conservative positions and 18% have consistently or mostly liberal views. Among all Republicans and Republican leaners, 53% have conservative views; in the two oldest generations, Silents and Boomers, about two-thirds are consistently or mostly conservative.
In short, not only are Millennials less likely than older generations to identify as Republicans, but even those who do express significantly less conservative values than do their elders.''
If the lost UKIP votes are ex-Tories returning to the fold, doesn't that mainly mean much bigger Tory majorities in seats they already hold? Obviously, the Tories are going to win a number of Labour-held marginals, but I suspect that a lot if their extra votes are going to come in seats they already hold. That may mean Labour closer to 170/180 seats than 140/150.
I think there is an element of truth in that. I banged on and on in 2015 about how the UKIP vote was likely to make the Tory vote more efficient than it had been in 2010 and an unwind of it is not likely to help in a lot of seats. But some Tories with smallish majorities facing Lib Dems will be glad of it as will some Tory challengers hunting down Labour majorities smaller than the UKIP vote in their constituencies last time out.
IMHO, the unpopularity of the Labour party in many working class Leave constituencies puts seats in play that shouldn't be in play. IMO, all but 90 or so Labour seats are vulnerable (I'm not forecasting 140 Labour losses, but I am forecasting losses up to the 91st safest seat).
I think they might lose some of those seats, that even on a 20 point Tory lead should on paper be safe, but they'll also hold ones that people think are good as gone. The lds are getting a bit carried away and the Tories will also pile up votes where they don't need them.
As was discussed yesterday, Curtice doesn't seem to think it need be that conclusive given the extent of so many safe Lab seats.
The more cautious Tories are prepping for 50-80 it seems. Shirt of major changes orid forbid Diane Abbott being correct, that looks solid, it's the 130 maj crowd who will be disappointed
Nobody is ever disappointed to win an election.
Relative disappointment. No ones happy to lose one either, but they can be relatively happy if they don't get wiped out.
What could possibly have happened in 1973 that gave a big and long-lasting boost to the UK economy?
Are you attributing that to one thing? Because that would be truly economically illiterate.
Over the last few decades global trade barriers have come down, currencies are now generally free floating, telecommunications advances have made a huge difference to trade, containerisation and ever larger ships have dramatically cut costs, and labour costs in developing economies are tiny.
I would put EU membership quite far down the list of significant changes to UK trade.
On a scale of 0 to 0, how significant do you think the opportunity is form signing 'our own trade deals' versus those negotiated through the EU?
Makes you wonder why any country not in the EU would negotiate trade deals.
They don't have the luxury of having the EU work for them. People who don't have cleaners still need to mop the floor.
Also, this is off-topic, but given the reaction to what may Tim Farron's views on homosexuality (even though he voted for Gay marriage) I wonder how the GOP are thought of on here, given that according to Pew Research, 54% of them think homosexuality is morally unacceptable.
Well, they are definitely on the right track on human origins, with only 40% of them accepting the quasi-scientific tenets of so-called "Darwinism", so I would also have a lot of respect for their views on other matters
You don't believe in evolution (or maybe you're being sarscastic and I'm not picking it up)?
Interestingly enough, that link says that 60% of Republicans believe humans were created 10,000 years ago by God. More worringly, it's view shared by a significant minority of Democrats and Independents.
TM seems to have calculated that enough remain Tories will stay with her to target UKIP and Labour leavers with her Brexit policy.
I am not one of those who will stay. I may be a Conservative party member but I am voting Lib Dem this election after the Daily Mail headlines today. My seat is SNP solid so it will make little difference but it is the principle.
I never thought I would see the split up of the UK but today is the first day that I can imagine it happening.
Unionist parties may actually gain some seats from the SNP
I agree as people hate the uncertainity that SNP has created.
The Scottish economy has been downhill fast since the referendum.
The first estimate of the latest quarter's GDP is due next week.
Scotland contracted by 0.2% in the last quarter. Another contraction would be two successive quarters, so technically a recession.
If the oil industry is excluded, what is the figure?
Surely it is the oil price that makes the difference.
What could possibly have happened in 1973 that gave a big and long-lasting boost to the UK economy?
Are you attributing that to one thing? Because that would be truly economically illiterate.
Over the last few decades global trade barriers have come down, currencies are now generally free floating, telecommunications advances have made a huge difference to trade, containerisation and ever larger ships have dramatically cut costs, and labour costs in developing economies are tiny.
I would put EU membership quite far down the list of significant changes to UK trade.
On a scale of 0 to 0, how significant do you think the opportunity is form signing 'our own trade deals' versus those negotiated through the EU?
Makes you wonder why any country not in the EU would negotiate trade deals.
They don't have the luxury of having the EU work for them. People who don't have cleaners still need to mop the floor.
What could possibly have happened in 1973 that gave a big and long-lasting boost to the UK economy?
Are you attributing that to one thing? Because that would be truly economically illiterate.
Over the last few decades global trade barriers have come down, currencies are now generally free floating, telecommunications advances have made a huge difference to trade, containerisation and ever larger ships have dramatically cut costs, and labour costs in developing economies are tiny.
I would put EU membership quite far down the list of significant changes to UK trade.
As a manufacturer of goods, I agree global trading of goods is much easier these days. I export outside EC a third of goods I make. My technical service sales are 90% UK based and 10% EC based. Brexit is not a big deal for UK manufacturers but could be a bad day for technical services such as banking, lawyers, consultants etc.
Why are bookies still offering odds on the Gorton by-election?
It is still going ahead, I understood.
Last I heard is that parliament now needs to give the ARO the power it previously said she already had. So there are two hurdles to go through before it is formally cancelled; until then it is formally on.
Getting rid of the triple lock is a bold move. It shows a certain hubris and complacency to start doing massive diarrhetic shits on your core vote assuming they have nowhere else to go.
They won't care about the triple lock as long as the increases come anyway. What getting rid of the pledge does do is give wriggle room if there's a legitimate reason to cut back, such as a recession.
Or a day with a Y in it.
Good. It might be risky to assume that core vote has nowhere to go, but from what I've read on here the policy is unsustainable, a grey vote bribe, and better she drop it, take some hit and still win, than win then drop it. So wiggle room a good thing.
The triple lock was slowly returning the state pension to its real value in 1979 vs average incomes. It's a f*** you to anyone aged 55 or over and approaching an age where they may be reliant almost entirely on the state pension of c. £7.5 k per year. Median income of those of working age £26k per year?
She's been experimenting with a lower pitch voice too, it's early years Thatcher ... Aargh.
If the lost UKIP votes are ex-Tories returning to the fold, doesn't that mainly mean much bigger Tory majorities in seats they already hold? Obviously, the Tories are going to win a number of Labour-held marginals, but I suspect that a lot if their extra votes are going to come in seats they already hold. That may mean Labour closer to 170/180 seats than 140/150.
I think there is an element of truth in that. I banged on and on in 2015 about how the UKIP vote was likely to make the Tory vote more efficient than it had been in 2010 and an unwind of it is not likely to help in a lot of seats. But some Tories with smallish majorities facing Lib Dems will be glad of it as will some Tory challengers hunting down Labour majorities smaller than the UKIP vote in their constituencies last time out.
IMHO, the unpopularity of the Labour party in many working class Leave constituencies puts seats in play that shouldn't be in play. IMO, all but 90 or so Labour seats are vulnerable (I'm not forecasting 140 Labour losses, but I am forecasting losses up to the 91st safest seat).
I think they might lose some of those seats, that even on a 20 point Tory lead should on paper be safe, but they'll also hold ones that people think are good as gone. The lds are getting a bit carried away and the Tories will also pile up votes where they don't need them.
Actually, from what SeanF posted yesterday, the Tories seem to getting big swings in Labour seats and bigger swings in Labour Leave seats - along with only small swings in their own seats. That is exactly where they need them to take seats off Labour in midlands, Wales and the North.
Yes, but my gut says it won't be quite like that! It steered me wrong in 2015, but I trust my gut!
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges Yesterday McDonnell said Labour would target anyone earning over £70,000. Today Thornberry won't back him. And so it begins...
Ms. Apocalypse, well, quite. It's a huge and disconcerting cultural difference.
I don't have the link, alas, but some time ago (maybe 3-4 years) a friend from the US who lives in the UK, and has done for some time, shared a study of attitudes towards atheism.
I think the question people (theists from America) were asked was regarding the sort of people with whom they'd like to accept a lift. Rapists and atheists came equal last.
Yes. Thankfully, in this country I think we are much less judgemental of atheists. More polling showed that while we don't think you have to be religious to be a good person (many European countries thought the same) Americans had a different view. Still, among the younger generation in America atheism is growing - so hopefully it becomes more acceptable to the American public as a whole. Sadly the religious right in the US appear to be desperate to drag the country back to the 1950s with evangelicals at the forefront of this.
May's spokesman says she May appear before a TV audience at an individual event but not head to head with other candidates in an echo of what the party leaders did in 2005 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39649119
I'm amazed the Prime Minister has time to venture into the television studios given her statement yesterday that she'll be visiting everywhere in the nation.
She will surely require some stout and sensible shoes for her countrywide perambulations.
TM seems to have calculated that enough remain Tories will stay with her to target UKIP and Labour leavers with her Brexit policy.
I am not one of those who will stay. I may be a Conservative party member but I am voting Lib Dem this election after the Daily Mail headlines today. My seat is SNP solid so it will make little difference but it is the principle.
I never thought I would see the split up of the UK but today is the first day that I can imagine it happening.
Unionist parties may actually gain some seats from the SNP
I agree as people hate the uncertainity that SNP has created.
The Scottish economy has been downhill fast since the referendum.
The first estimate of the latest quarter's GDP is due next week.
Scotland contracted by 0.2% in the last quarter. Another contraction would be two successive quarters, so technically a recession.
If the oil industry is excluded, what is the figure?
Surely it is the oil price that makes the difference.
I don't know the numbers with oil excluded but drawing attention to the volatility of the oil production sector can't be something SIndy fans want to do.
Makes you wonder why any country not in the EU would negotiate trade deals.
It's not that I think that EU membership has no upsides, what I object to is the ludicrous over simplification and exaggeration, as though the EU is the fount of all good things.
EU membership is not the only factor in growing trade, there are many other big changes that have happened post war, some of which I mentioned. And EU membership was not the only factor in keeping peace in Europe, NATO and a common enemy in the USSR and Eastern bloc might have played a part.
It's not hard to see why some people think that the EU has an almost religious following.
Comments
Not that's untrue, exactly, but in trying to make it seem unfair or sinister.
I could live with an ed m government, I could not with a Corbyn led one, I finally understand why people vote against rather than for candidates.
He's going to moan about how unfair it is for months, isn't he? Christ.
Just imagine the Tory clamour for a Damehood for Kate Hoey if she gave up her seat!
Others in her own party remember her canoodling with Nigel Farage at the time he brought out his 'Syrian Refugee' poster.
"Shoot the Traitors?"
https://onlineonly.christies.com/s/uprising-geopolitical-snapshots-20th-century/lots/344
Okaaaaay......
On that graph: if you were looking at the line alone, you'd probably put the start of the upturn around 1953 or so.
From there to roughly 1994 the graph follows (with bobbling, of course) a pretty much straight line.
https://twitter.com/ChorleyTories/status/854953365540917248
Stick on social media for every seat.
Lindsay Hoyle would still be a better speaker than Bercow.
https://twitter.com/election_data/status/854948690489987072
24% may yet be a giddy aspiration for Labour come 8 June.
UKIP is a real unknown, harping on about BREXIT may actually fuel their support so I am not sure after 3-4 weeks that message will remain attractive. Austerity is a real issue for many in local govt, the public services and those on benefits - my overall conclusion, lets not get too carried away and there is a lot of froth about 50% of the vote.......
Happy to be corrected, not sure where to punt.....turnout perhaps?
On topic, things can have more than one purpose.
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/04/15/whats-morally-acceptable-it-depends-on-where-in-the-world-you-live
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39649119
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-39637770
I suspect like many are saying on here that we will see closer-run contests in LD/Tory battleground seats in the South, and Tory/Lab battleground seats in London, and some wild swings in constituencies in the Midlands and the North.
Labour's electoral coalition could lose one of its biggest components in this election. Whether that's permanent or not, tricky to say. I think May potentially has a large personal vote, more than anything (the leadership and Brexit factors are in play here). As I said last night, you could not imagine Cameron targeting the Labour North with anything like the chances of success.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/108226/republicans-democrats-differ-creationism.aspx
Oh, and the reason for the '2018' tag is that we were gearing up for the all-out elections to Leeds City Council next year. Not because we don't know what year it is.
I'd be more worried, if I were Labour, that his policy offerings on tax, housing and public spending will spook potential voters fearing an imminent Fourth Great Depression (while we're still stuck in number 3).
Ms. Apocalypse, well, quite. It's a huge and disconcerting cultural difference.
I don't have the link, alas, but some time ago (maybe 3-4 years) a friend from the US who lives in the UK, and has done for some time, shared a study of attitudes towards atheism.
I think the question people (theists from America) were asked was regarding the sort of people with whom they'd like to accept a lift. Rapists and atheists came equal last.
Interestingly enough, that link says that 60% of Republicans believe humans were created 10,000 years ago by God. More worringly, it's view shared by a significant minority of Democrats and Independents.
Over the last few decades global trade barriers have come down, currencies are now generally free floating, telecommunications advances have made a huge difference to trade, containerisation and ever larger ships have dramatically cut costs, and labour costs in developing economies are tiny.
I would put EU membership quite far down the list of significant changes to UK trade.
I would actually be glad to think Labour have moved on a year - by then Corbyn and Macdonnell will have left the party or been expelled and unable to damage it further!!!
Can we bet on whether or not it takes place?
The man in the street may think him a fool, but not dishonest or a bully in my opinion.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges
Yesterday McDonnell said Labour would target anyone earning over £70,000. Today Thornberry won't back him. And so it begins...
Scotland contracted by 0.2% in the last quarter. Another contraction would be two successive quarters, so technically a recession. Zero growth in 2016.
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/09/25/the-gops-millennial-problem-runs-deep/
''But in addition to the generation’s Democratic tendency, Millennials who identify with the GOP are also less conservative than Republicans in other generations: Among the roughly one-third of Millennials who affiliate with or lean Republican, just 31% have a mix of political values that are right-of-center, while about half (51%) take a mix of liberal and conservative positions and 18% have consistently or mostly liberal views. Among all Republicans and Republican leaners, 53% have conservative views; in the two oldest generations, Silents and Boomers, about two-thirds are consistently or mostly conservative.
In short, not only are Millennials less likely than older generations to identify as Republicans, but even those who do express significantly less conservative values than do their elders.''
Surely it is the oil price that makes the difference.
She's been experimenting with a lower pitch voice too, it's early years Thatcher ... Aargh.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/d/Grocery/Bulk-Grains-Organic-Yellow-Popcorn/B001KW90YY/
She will surely require some stout and sensible shoes for her countrywide perambulations.
EU membership is not the only factor in growing trade, there are many other big changes that have happened post war, some of which I mentioned. And EU membership was not the only factor in keeping peace in Europe, NATO and a common enemy in the USSR and Eastern bloc might have played a part.
It's not hard to see why some people think that the EU has an almost religious following.