politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why the Conservatives may fall short of their hopes
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50:50 chance Farage will stand again in South Thanet, he says..... Channel 4 News0
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Don't think a green candidate would stand to take 4500 pro Indy votes.AndyJS said:
Edinburgh South would be the best shot for her. She'd win it I reckon. Bit like Edinburgh Central at the Scottish election.williamglenn said:0 -
Putting in a wheel to generate free electricity?RobD said:
What else are they for...malcolmg said:
LOL , she is a Tory. She would sell her granny for money.williamglenn said:0 -
Well, she does seem pretty talented to me, if that puts me in your bad books, but I concede the only things I have to go on are a few media performances, which is not much of course. Certainly of the ones they have, she's the only one I've heard of, apart from Mundell's son, so I presume she must be best of the bunch, whatever her objective merits or not.malcolmg said:
KLE, I thought you had lost it , they could not spell talent.kle4 said:
I was conjecturing as to their rationale behind such a move, should it occur.malcolmg said:
Talent , FFS are you insanekle4 said:
Are you allowed to double job between Holyrood and Westminster, or would they decide the SCON brand is doing about as well as it can and is relatively set at its current level, so no harm getting some of the talent to Westminster?williamglenn said:
Happy General Election Announcement Day everyone, play nice.0 -
Sorry but the Tories aren't going to lose a seat where they have a 26% majority.murali_s said:Early canvassing (from a few Labour pals) here in Wimbledon suggests the LDs are looking strong here. Outside chance of winning maybe with Labour likely to be pushed from second to third.
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Cable, farage, etc it is groundhog! Gordon isn't very busy these days, perhaps he fancies another go.MarqueeMark said:50:50 chance Farage will stand again in South Thanet, he says..... Channel 4 News
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You said May deserved a polonium pill.justin124 said:
I have not wished death on anyone!RobD said:
Are you impartial in wishing death and dismemberment on your friends as well as your enemies?justin124 said:
At least I have been impartial - can you claim that?FrancisUrquhart said:Been for dinner, has Justin kill'em all short Straws managed to go an hour without wishing death on anybody?
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I know you and I have our disagreements, but well said.Richard_Tyndall said:
Twenty or thirty years ago maybe. Thankfully today aid is targeted far better (though there are still some issues) and is making a real difference to the lives of tens of millions of people around the world. Where do you think the money came from to eradicate smallpox? Or fight Ebola, or Polio? Who helps pay when there is an earthquake or the 2004 Boxing Day Tsunami?Ishmael_Z said:
Overseas aid is a painless mechanism for transferring money from poor people in rich countries to rich people in poor countries. The well-heeled like to defend it because they feel virtuous at no personal cost: it is their money going to good causes, innit, even if it goes via the taxman? The poor, who actually could do with the money themselves, not so much.murali_s said:
I know we have crossed swords on here but this is a superb post. Bravo!Richard_Tyndall said:Got caught by the New Thread trap so FPT:
The 0.7% of GDP for overseas aid is something we can and should be very proud of.
There will always be issues about how these things are administered and who gets the money but that is a question of reviewing and revising our criteria for overseas aid, not getting rid of or reducing it. I hope that leaving the EU might help this as significant amounts of overseas aid was channelled through them and the convoluted way in which it was administered made the whole thing rather opaque.
But the basic principle that rich countries should help poor ones for the long term benefit of everyone seems very sensible and admirable to me.
I would add that I have never understood the antipathy amongst some Tory politicians towards overseas aid. It seems a very old fashioned Conservative thing to do to help those les fortunate than oneself.
Properly directed International Aid makes a vast difference to people's lives and as communications and transparency improve the amounts being lost or paid to dodgy governments is being driven down continuously.
Just because a few policeman beat up a man in a cell or frame someone does not mean we should disband the police. It means we tighten up on the rules that govern a very necessary service.
If you want to say we should not help those in need because it is not our problem then that is a valid (if to my mind wrong and immoral) argument. But saying we should not have International Aid because a small amount of it gets misused is simply illogical.0 -
He has a point. Labour might stabilise - or even improve - if they think there is no risk of Corbyn as PM, and it's about keeping their local MP.SquareRoot said:
In Horsham? that bastion of Labour voters?Jonathan said:Anecdote alert.
Canvassed for Labour this afternoon. A few doubts expressed about Corbyn, but no sign of collapse. LDs will benefit from doubters. But in the main it is business as usual.
However, this won't be universal and won't help them much in their most vulnerable seats in Midlands and the North.0 -
Think a lot of folk here were significantly off with their predictions. If you look back to my posts I did mention in polling week that things were not looking great for Labour.YBarddCwsc said:
I hope you don’t mind me mentioning it, but your track record from 2015 on seat predictions does not give me very much confidence.murali_s said:Early canvassing (from a few Labour pals) here in Wimbledon suggests the LDs are looking strong here. Outside chance of winning maybe with Labour likely to be pushed from second to third.
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We differ on means not ends I believe. That is true for much of political argument.JosiasJessop said:
I know you and I have our disagreements, but well said.Richard_Tyndall said:
Twenty or thirty years ago maybe. Thankfully today aid is targeted far better (though there are still some issues) and is making a real difference to the lives of tens of millions of people around the world. Where do you think the money came from to eradicate smallpox? Or fight Ebola, or Polio? Who helps pay when there is an earthquake or the 2004 Boxing Day Tsunami?Ishmael_Z said:
Overseas aid is a painless mechanism for transferring money from poor people in rich countries to rich people in poor countries. The well-heeled like to defend it because they feel virtuous at no personal cost: it is their money going to good causes, innit, even if it goes via the taxman? The poor, who actually could do with the money themselves, not so much.murali_s said:
I know we have crossed swords on here but this is a superb post. Bravo!Richard_Tyndall said:Got caught by the New Thread trap so FPT:
The 0.7% of GDP for overseas aid is something we can and should be very proud of.
There will always be issues about how these things are administered and who gets the money but that is a question of reviewing and revising our criteria for overseas aid, not getting rid of or reducing it. I hope that leaving the EU might help this as significant amounts of overseas aid was channelled through them and the convoluted way in which it was administered made the whole thing rather opaque.
But the basic principle that rich countries should help poor ones for the long term benefit of everyone seems very sensible and admirable to me.
I would add that I have never understood the antipathy amongst some Tory politicians towards overseas aid. It seems a very old fashioned Conservative thing to do to help those les fortunate than oneself.
Properly directed International Aid makes a vast difference to people's lives and as communications and transparency improve the amounts being lost or paid to dodgy governments is being driven down continuously.
Just because a few policeman beat up a man in a cell or frame someone does not mean we should disband the police. It means we tighten up on the rules that govern a very necessary service.
If you want to say we should not help those in need because it is not our problem then that is a valid (if to my mind wrong and immoral) argument. But saying we should not have International Aid because a small amount of it gets misused is simply illogical.0 -
Barely had the Prime Minister shut the door of Number 10 behind her than the SNP leader was beating a path to the nearest BBC camera.
She can’t get someone halfway competent to run Scotland’s schools but she knows where to find Brian Taylor and a microphone in a pinch.
Miss Sturgeon pronounced Theresa May guilty of a ‘huge political miscalculation’ for calling an early general election. This means one of two things: 1) Theresa May made a huge political miscalculation in calling an early election, or 2) Nicola Sturgeon does not want a general election at this moment in time.
https://stephendaisley.com/2017/04/19/sturgeon-knows-her-party-has-peaked-thats-why-she-doesnt-want-this-election/0 -
In two weeks time there will be the local elections in the UK. The headlines will be: gains for Conservatives and LibDems, and LibDems second in terms of votes in England.justin124 said:Media coverage of the LibDems will surely be more limited this time as a result of their very weak performance at the 2015 election and their continued low standing in the polls.The coverage given to them by Broadcasters in 2015 was determined by their 2010 performance.
Now, you can argue that's misleading (because it is). But that will be the narrative.
I have stated my views on LibDem performance. I think they will get 12-16% of the vote and perhaps 15 or 16 seats. But Labour under Corbyn, with Brexit raging, does offer them a once in a lifetime opportunity. As a Labour supporter, you should be extremely glad that it is Farron leading the LibDems and not Clegg or Lamb.0 -
Cable standing again?
The people of Twickenham deserve better.0 -
Also that Yougov poll mentioned earlier would suggest we should not expect much Lab-Con swing in Conservative Remainia. Indeed all the big swings in the polling have been in the Midlands and the North.AndyJS said:
Horsham? Labour were on just 11% last time. They haven't exactly got a lot of votes to lose, they must be almost down to rock-bottom already.Jonathan said:
Horsham. One of the competitive wards.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Jonathan, where were you canvassing?
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PoliticsHome @politicshome
Senior Labour MP Iain Wright becomes latest to quit amid ‘exodus’ warning0 -
On the Lib Dems, I suspect they will do well in SW London, the Home Counties commuter belt, the Thames Valley, English spa towns and other affluent suburbs in the North, like Cheadle.
I expect them to not advance very much in the South West, or the more rural shire seats.0 -
Anyway, I must be off. Be nice, everyone.0
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I can only assume that Ruth, being a patriotic woman, would like to be in a position to be able to direct aid to a newly independent Scotland.0
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Much of the problem with inefficiency of aid is on our end, too. In the US, in particular, the practice of using primes and 'costs plus' pricing not only removes the incentive for efficiency, but eliminates efficient subs as the primes refuse ever to work with them again for losing them their share of the 'plus'.Richard_Tyndall said:
Twenty or thirty years ago maybe. Thankfully today aid is targeted far better (though there are still some issues) and is making a real difference to the lives of tens of millions of people around the world. Where do you think the money came from to eradicate smallpox? Or fight Ebola, or Polio? Who helps pay when there is an earthquake or the 2004 Boxing Day Tsunami?
Properly directed International Aid makes a vast difference to people's lives and as communications and transparency improve the amounts being lost or paid to dodgy governments is being driven down continuously.
Just because a few policeman beat up a man in a cell or frame someone does not mean we should disband the police. It means we tighten up on the rules that govern a very necessary service.
If you want to say we should not help those in need because it is not our problem then that is a valid (if to my mind wrong and immoral) argument. But saying we should not have International Aid because a small amount of it gets misused is simply illogical.
In my area, for DoD contracts, there are only 4 primes, including for the international aid work. Efficient subs get to be known very quickly and booted out of the club.0 -
There may well be an antidote for that by now.No - it was all about suffering -which is supposed to be so good for the soul.May knows all about suffering , given how much of it she and the Government she represents has imposed on poor vulnerable people since 2010. She has effectively provided us with a Masterclass of the Nasty Party at play.RobD said:
You said May deserved a polonium pill.justin124 said:
I have not wished death on anyone!RobD said:
Are you impartial in wishing death and dismemberment on your friends as well as your enemies?justin124 said:
At least I have been impartial - can you claim that?FrancisUrquhart said:Been for dinner, has Justin kill'em all short Straws managed to go an hour without wishing death on anybody?
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I think you're way too pessimistic on their prospects. Even with Farron, I think the campaign will see them make significant inroads and I'm expecting >20% of the vote.rcs1000 said:I have stated my views on LibDem performance. I think they will get 12-16% of the vote and perhaps 15 or 16 seats. But Labour under Corbyn, with Brexit raging, does offer them a once in a lifetime opportunity. As a Labour supporter, you should be extremely glad that it is Farron leading the LibDems and not Clegg or Lamb.
Current polling has Labour only a few points below the score Brown achieved after a brilliant campaign by Mandelson in 2010. It's not credible that they'll do anything like that well this time.0 -
Oh no! Gisella Stuart is not standing....0
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What a pitiful excuse for your disgusting comments,justin124 said:
There may well be an antidote for that by now.No - it was all about suffering -which is supposed to be so good for the soul.May knows all about suffering , given how much of it she and the Government she represents has imposed on poor vulnerable people since 2010. She has effectively provided us with a Masterclass of the Nasty Party at play.RobD said:
You said May deserved a polonium pill.justin124 said:
I have not wished death on anyone!RobD said:
Are you impartial in wishing death and dismemberment on your friends as well as your enemies?justin124 said:
At least I have been impartial - can you claim that?FrancisUrquhart said:Been for dinner, has Justin kill'em all short Straws managed to go an hour without wishing death on anybody?
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malc I didntmalcolmg said:
Alan , di d you see my response to your scurilous post , is our bet on.Alanbrooke said:
ROFLkle4 said:
If they said there couldn't be one they were factually wrong, if they said there wouldn't be one they just called it wrong (if someone merely said she had no power to call one they were right and still are, she did not call one, parliament did, albeit at her urging).Alanbrooke said:
the pundits are a lttle out of touch atmFrancisUrquhart said:Straight away yesterday the media were hooked on this idea of voters not wanting a GE and voter fatigue. Now when have we seen the media being totally out of step with the rest of the country...innocent face..
they said there couldnt be an early election and Mrs May was indecisive - wrong on both accounts it seems
But they definitely were not wrong on her being indecisive - if she is not indecisive and changed her mind in a month on seeking an early GE, then she lied about wanting to seek one before! So is she a liar, or is she indecisive?
And no, I don't expect her to face electoral consequences either way, but she was not decisive on this issue, she said repeatedly we were not having one, now we are.
shes a politician
I find it little short of amazing that people on a politics site expect politicians to be archbishops.
but youre on
would you like to pay up now ? :-)0 -
Justin:justin124 said:
There may well be an antidote for that by now.No - it was all about suffering -which is supposed to be so good for the soul.May knows all about suffering , given how much of it she and the Government she represents has imposed on poor vulnerable people since 2010. She has effectively provided us with a Masterclass of the Nasty Party at play.RobD said:
You said May deserved a polonium pill.justin124 said:
I have not wished death on anyone!RobD said:
Are you impartial in wishing death and dismemberment on your friends as well as your enemies?justin124 said:
At least I have been impartial - can you claim that?FrancisUrquhart said:Been for dinner, has Justin kill'em all short Straws managed to go an hour without wishing death on anybody?
We've had lots of good arguments on history over the last couple of years. Can I refer you to a statement by a Labour chancellor in days of yore:
'When you are in a hole - STOP DIGGING!'0 -
Political leader seeks TV exposure in election – what an effing shockerCarlottaVance said:Barely had the Prime Minister shut the door of Number 10 behind her than the SNP leader was beating a path to the nearest BBC camera.
She can’t get someone halfway competent to run Scotland’s schools but she knows where to find Brian Taylor and a microphone in a pinch.
Miss Sturgeon pronounced Theresa May guilty of a ‘huge political miscalculation’ for calling an early general election. This means one of two things: 1) Theresa May made a huge political miscalculation in calling an early election, or 2) Nicola Sturgeon does not want a general election at this moment in time.
https://stephendaisley.com/2017/04/19/sturgeon-knows-her-party-has-peaked-thats-why-she-doesnt-want-this-election/0 -
You are ahead of him there then currently...Richard_Tyndall said:
Excuse me? Not only have I not returned to the Tory party, but I vote based on principles not personal gain. I certainly don't associate myself with Reckless. I am a Carswell man all the way.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Indeed - that's him! Seems a thoroughly good egg too. although I'm not sure which 'wing' of the Blue team he's on... the newly returned Reckless/Tyndall side or the various names RobD recalls for me or wets for short.TheScreamingEagles said:
I loved Bread. It has to be the Proddy Vicar that is the Tory candidate.Scrapheap_as_was said:
what do we think re Carswell, the Tory candidate was Giles Watling and he's still up for beating Douglas this time around and seems to want the nomination again?TheScreamingEagles said:
All but in name.SimonStClare said:
I must have missed it, when did Mark Reckless rejoin the Tory party?TheScreamingEagles said:
I want a majority of fewer than 12.Scrapheap_as_was said:I agree - I'd be happy with 40-50 maj
So I can say she's not as good as Dave.
What a grim week for us, Mark Reckless rejoins the party and George Osborne ceases to be an MP.
He should have been told to fuck off by the Welsh Conservatives, like the way you avoid an ex girlfriend with the clap, but they didn't.
Lilo Lil, she is a tart.0 -
Do the Conservatives want to keep Bath?Chameleon said:
Well, not thinking that homosexuals are dirty sinners is a pretty key belief for a Lib Dem. If the Tories want to keep seats like Bath then they should exploit Farron's backwards views.Roger said:If anyone cares less whether Tim Farron thinks it's a sin to be gay hoot your horn.....
I wonder if any country in the world spends as much time discussing trivia as the UK.0 -
Cable was bloody useless in the coalition. All their supposed wisdom and he got the square root of fuck all done. In comparison beaker the former park ranger was very harshly treated to lose their seat. Him and Webb are big losses for the lib dems.0
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0
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Stop being an obnoxious fool.justin124 said:
There may well be an antidote for that by now.No - it was all about suffering -which is supposed to be so good for the soul.May knows all about suffering , given how much of it she and the Government she represents has imposed on poor vulnerable people since 2010. She has effectively provided us with a Masterclass of the Nasty Party at play.RobD said:
You said May deserved a polonium pill.justin124 said:
I have not wished death on anyone!RobD said:
Are you impartial in wishing death and dismemberment on your friends as well as your enemies?justin124 said:
At least I have been impartial - can you claim that?FrancisUrquhart said:Been for dinner, has Justin kill'em all short Straws managed to go an hour without wishing death on anybody?
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I’m sure Paul Nuttall (UKiP) has had something to say, but I’ve noticed the media simply are not covering it to the same extent they would if it were Farage. I don’t expect UKiP to do well in the May locals, but with Nuttall still in charge come June, they’ll be lucky to win their deposit.0
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I know that sitting MPs will be challenged, and that unsuccessful 2015 candidates will be allowed to restand, but does this new bias the slate elsewhere towards Corbynistas? Genuine question for those who might have some insight:
"The NEC will directly fill any vacancies in England triggered by retirements" [BBC online news]0 -
As with SO, we know that for anyone with political commitment, such decisions are traumatic and deserve respect.TheScreamingEagles said:My Tory membership is up for renewal next month.
Been a member for 20 years, but I feel the party has left me.
But I feel sure you don't belong with people like this:
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2017/04/garry-heath-lets-seize-this-chance-to-purge-our-party-and-deselect-the-remainers.html
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Is she a secret UKIP agent dedicated to making remainers look as crazy and electorally unappealing as possible?Theuniondivvie said:Lights fuse etc
https://twitter.com/bingomouse75/status/854763783767588880
The alternatives are even more terrible to contemplate...0 -
Libs may well do better than forecast. 55 seats in 2010 means they have form. Labour demise could mean they get 70 seats0
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Delusions of grandeur.Theuniondivvie said:Lights fuse etc
https://twitter.com/bingomouse75/status/8547637837675888800 -
Will the YouGov daily tracker be making a reappearance?
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Tories too over confident. Huge danger. Reckon on 50 seat majority max0
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I thought one of the reasons Corbyn wasrefusing to go was because despite an extremely nasty campaign notable for the police getting involved to try and check his crazier supporters he had failed to take over the NEC. He wanted to hang in until he could capture it and change the rules to lock the hard left in power.MTimT said:I know that sitting MPs will be challenged, and that unsuccessful 2015 candidates will be allowed to restand, but does this new bias the slate elsewhere towards Corbynistas? Genuine question for those who might have some insight:
"The NEC will directly fill any vacancies in England triggered by retirements" [BBC online news]
So I would say no.0 -
I would be ruder.MaxPB said:
Delusions of grandeur.Theuniondivvie said:Lights fuse etc
https://twitter.com/bingomouse75/status/8547637837675888800 -
I see no hole!ydoethur said:
Justin:justin124 said:
There may well be an antidote for that by now.No - it was all about suffering -which is supposed to be so good for the soul.May knows all about suffering , given how much of it she and the Government she represents has imposed on poor vulnerable people since 2010. She has effectively provided us with a Masterclass of the Nasty Party at play.RobD said:
You said May deserved a polonium pill.justin124 said:
I have not wished death on anyone!RobD said:
Are you impartial in wishing death and dismemberment on your friends as well as your enemies?justin124 said:
At least I have been impartial - can you claim that?FrancisUrquhart said:Been for dinner, has Justin kill'em all short Straws managed to go an hour without wishing death on anybody?
We've had lots of good arguments on history over the last couple of years. Can I refer you to a statement by a Labour chancellor in days of yore:
'When you are in a hole - STOP DIGGING!'0 -
Received my postal vote today for the CC elections will be back in the post tomorrow .0
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Your Brexit is not going to happen without a fight.rcs1000 said:
I would be ruder.MaxPB said:
Delusions of grandeur.Theuniondivvie said:Lights fuse etc
https://twitter.com/bingomouse75/status/8547637837675888800 -
The Sage of Twickenham?rcs1000 said:Cable standing again?
The people of Twickenham deserve better.0 -
That is a very commendable first effort, beating ChrisA’s 50 LD seats.Insider said:Libs may well do better than forecast. 55 seats in 2010 means they have form. Labour demise could mean they get 70 seats
But, it dwarfs WilliamGlenn’s spectacle of 150 LD MPs.
My guess is that they’ll get ~10 MPs.
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Then frankly Justin you are the one who appears to have a problem with his eyesight.justin124 said:
I see no hole!ydoethur said:
Justin:justin124 said:
There may well be an antidote for that by now.No - it was all about suffering -which is supposed to be so good for the soul.May knows all about suffering , given how much of it she and the Government she represents has imposed on poor vulnerable people since 2010. She has effectively provided us with a Masterclass of the Nasty Party at play.RobD said:
You said May deserved a polonium pill.justin124 said:
I have not wished death on anyone!RobD said:
Are you impartial in wishing death and dismemberment on your friends as well as your enemies?justin124 said:
At least I have been impartial - can you claim that?FrancisUrquhart said:Been for dinner, has Justin kill'em all short Straws managed to go an hour without wishing death on anybody?
We've had lots of good arguments on history over the last couple of years. Can I refer you to a statement by a Labour chancellor in days of yore:
'When you are in a hole - STOP DIGGING!'0 -
Shame you didn't start your fight before the election..williamglenn said:
Your Brexit is not going to happen without a fight.rcs1000 said:
I would be ruder.MaxPB said:
Delusions of grandeur.Theuniondivvie said:Lights fuse etc
https://twitter.com/bingomouse75/status/8547637837675888800 -
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I was fond of Norman Baker too. (And Lamb is OK.)FrancisUrquhart said:Cable was bloody useless in the coalition. All their supposed wisdom and he got the square root of fuck all done. In comparison beaker the former park ranger was very harshly treated to lose their seat. Him and Webb are big losses for the lib dems.
The rest, not so much.0 -
Why does she just stand for parliament ?Theuniondivvie said:Lights fuse etc
https://twitter.com/bingomouse75/status/8547637837675888800 -
The fightback starts June 9th.Mortimer said:
Shame you didn't start your fight before the election..williamglenn said:
Your Brexit is not going to happen without a fight.rcs1000 said:
I would be ruder.MaxPB said:
Delusions of grandeur.Theuniondivvie said:Lights fuse etc
https://twitter.com/bingomouse75/status/8547637837675888800 -
No chance. I'm sort-of a fan of Farron, but this GE will be disappointing for them.Insider said:Libs may well do better than forecast. 55 seats in 2010 means they have form. Labour demise could mean they get 70 seats
If anything, this GE's coming far too early for them - they're still rebuilding. I bet Farron would have preferred 2020, or next year at a pinch.0 -
Farron's very clear reply to the intervention from Nigel Evans during today's HoC debate should dispel such nonsense.Sean_F said:
Do the Conservatives want to keep Bath?Chameleon said:
Well, not thinking that homosexuals are dirty sinners is a pretty key belief for a Lib Dem. If the Tories want to keep seats like Bath then they should exploit Farron's backwards views.Roger said:If anyone cares less whether Tim Farron thinks it's a sin to be gay hoot your horn.....
I wonder if any country in the world spends as much time discussing trivia as the UK.0 -
Guffaw. Let the frothing commence.Theuniondivvie said:Lights fuse etc
https://twitter.com/bingomouse75/status/8547637837675888800 -
I am NOT a Labour supporter and will not vote for them on June 8th - nor on May 4th.My point related to the coverage given to political parties in the course of the campaign. It is a fact that the poor performance of the LibDems in 2015 relative to 2010 will adversely affect the coverage they are given by the Broadcasters in 2017.rcs1000 said:
In two weeks time there will be the local elections in the UK. The headlines will be: gains for Conservatives and LibDems, and LibDems second in terms of votes in England.justin124 said:Media coverage of the LibDems will surely be more limited this time as a result of their very weak performance at the 2015 election and their continued low standing in the polls.The coverage given to them by Broadcasters in 2015 was determined by their 2010 performance.
Now, you can argue that's misleading (because it is). But that will be the narrative.
I have stated my views on LibDem performance. I think they will get 12-16% of the vote and perhaps 15 or 16 seats. But Labour under Corbyn, with Brexit raging, does offer them a once in a lifetime opportunity. As a Labour supporter, you should be extremely glad that it is Farron leading the LibDems and not Clegg or Lamb.0 -
Oh dear oh dear, you are down to scrabbling in the gutter already. Desperate times.CarlottaVance said:Barely had the Prime Minister shut the door of Number 10 behind her than the SNP leader was beating a path to the nearest BBC camera.
She can’t get someone halfway competent to run Scotland’s schools but she knows where to find Brian Taylor and a microphone in a pinch.
Miss Sturgeon pronounced Theresa May guilty of a ‘huge political miscalculation’ for calling an early general election. This means one of two things: 1) Theresa May made a huge political miscalculation in calling an early election, or 2) Nicola Sturgeon does not want a general election at this moment in time.
https://stephendaisley.com/2017/04/19/sturgeon-knows-her-party-has-peaked-thats-why-she-doesnt-want-this-election/0 -
Almost on par with the prediction of UKIP at 100 MPs in 2015!!YBarddCwsc said:
That is a very commendable first effort, beating ChrisA’s 50 LD seats.Insider said:Libs may well do better than forecast. 55 seats in 2010 means they have form. Labour demise could mean they get 70 seats
But, it dwarfs WilliamGlenn’s spectacle of 150 LD MPs.
My guess is that they’ll get ~10 MPs.0 -
I met Norman lamb, I was impressed. His heart was really in the right place during the coalition and he put in place some things relating to people with learning difficulties which have gone largely unnoticed and hopefully made some real differences to people lives.rcs1000 said:
I was fond of Norman Baker too. (And Lamb is OK.)FrancisUrquhart said:Cable was bloody useless in the coalition. All their supposed wisdom and he got the square root of fuck all done. In comparison beaker the former park ranger was very harshly treated to lose their seat. Him and Webb are big losses for the lib dems.
The rest, not so much.
He was like the anti-chuka...Much better in person and really sincere / knew his stuff.0 -
So does the "Progressive Alliance" have a chance?0
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I think this piece by Nicky Tyrone has an interesting seat estimation in the comments:
http://nicktyrone.com/right-general-election-june-8th-2017-whats-going-happen-predictions
Basically the commenter is saying it's a re-run of 1983, minus the Scottish Labour MPs: so Tories on about 400, Labour on 150, LD 20, SNP 56.0 -
Like taking candy off a babyAlanbrooke said:
malc I didntmalcolmg said:
Alan , di d you see my response to your scurilous post , is our bet on.Alanbrooke said:
ROFLkle4 said:
If they said there couldn't be one they were factually wrong, if they said there wouldn't be one they just called it wrong (if someone merely said she had no power to call one they were right and still are, she did not call one, parliament did, albeit at her urging).Alanbrooke said:
the pundits are a lttle out of touch atmFrancisUrquhart said:Straight away yesterday the media were hooked on this idea of voters not wanting a GE and voter fatigue. Now when have we seen the media being totally out of step with the rest of the country...innocent face..
they said there couldnt be an early election and Mrs May was indecisive - wrong on both accounts it seems
But they definitely were not wrong on her being indecisive - if she is not indecisive and changed her mind in a month on seeking an early GE, then she lied about wanting to seek one before! So is she a liar, or is she indecisive?
And no, I don't expect her to face electoral consequences either way, but she was not decisive on this issue, she said repeatedly we were not having one, now we are.
shes a politician
I find it little short of amazing that people on a politics site expect politicians to be archbishops.
but youre on
would you like to pay up now ? :-)
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Thanksydoethur said:
I thought one of the reasons Corbyn wasrefusing to go was because despite an extremely nasty campaign notable for the police getting involved to try and check his crazier supporters he had failed to take over the NEC. He wanted to hang in until he could capture it and change the rules to lock the hard left in power.MTimT said:I know that sitting MPs will be challenged, and that unsuccessful 2015 candidates will be allowed to restand, but does this new bias the slate elsewhere towards Corbynistas? Genuine question for those who might have some insight:
"The NEC will directly fill any vacancies in England triggered by retirements" [BBC online news]
So I would say no.0 -
I can absolutely see the point of specific, targeted interventions to combat disease and famine. What I object to is the back-to-front setting of an arbitrary, high financial yearly target and finding projects to hit the target, bearing in mind that tax is other peoples' money (including other, comparatively poor peoples' money). Any well-off person advocating high government expenditure on overseas aid who does not voluntarily pay a significant proportion of his own income to one of the numerous and excellent charities providing third world relief of one sort or another, needs to examine the moral coherence of his position. I am not of course making any assumptions nor impliedly asking you to tell me what your personal position is on this.Richard_Tyndall said:
Twenty or thirty years ago maybe. Thankfully today aid is targeted far better (though there are still some issues) and is making a real difference to the lives of tens of millions of people around the world. Where do you think the money came from to eradicate smallpox? Or fight Ebola, or Polio? Who helps pay when there is an earthquake or the 2004 Boxing Day Tsunami?
Properly directed International Aid makes a vast difference to people's lives and as communications and transparency improve the amounts being lost or paid to dodgy governments is being driven down continuously.
Just because a few policeman beat up a man in a cell or frame someone does not mean we should disband the police. It means we tighten up on the rules that govern a very necessary service.
If you want to say we should not help those in need because it is not our problem then that is a valid (if to my mind wrong and immoral) argument. But saying we should not have International Aid because a small amount of it gets misused is simply illogical.
And I very seriously question whether "only a small amount" of aid money goes astray, though in the nature of things it is hard to know, but here is Ban Ki Moon saying 30% of all aid lost to corruption in 2012. https://www.devex.com/news/30-percent-of-aid-lost-to-corruption-ban-ki-moon-786430 -
No gains at all?YBarddCwsc said:
That is a very commendable first effort, beating ChrisA’s 50 LD seats.Insider said:Libs may well do better than forecast. 55 seats in 2010 means they have form. Labour demise could mean they get 70 seats
But, it dwarfs WilliamGlenn’s spectacle of 150 LD MPs.
My guess is that they’ll get ~10 MPs.
Not Edinburgh West nor Fife NE nor Dumbartonshire East?
Not even in leafy SW London? Or the hearts of Remainia? And no benefit from Labour being down 5 percentage points or more, while the LDs have increased their vote share by 50%?
I reckon 12 seats in the minimum.
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Labour MPs standing down in Hull, Hartlepool, Middlesbrough and Durham.
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I don’t think Sturgeon has the backing of Labour – I doubt she even bothered to ask anyone.Sean_F said:So does the "Progressive Alliance" have a chance?
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Ive doubled up malc as JPJ2 was laughing as you hid in the heather so I took him on too :-)malcolmg said:
Like taking candy off a babyAlanbrooke said:
malc I didntmalcolmg said:
Alan , di d you see my response to your scurilous post , is our bet on.Alanbrooke said:
ROFLkle4 said:
If they said there couldn't be one they were factually wrong, if they said there wouldn't be one they just called it wrong (if someone merely said she had no power to call one they were right and still are, she did not call one, parliament did, albeit at her urging).Alanbrooke said:
the pundits are a lttle out of touch atmFrancisUrquhart said:Straight away yesterday the media were hooked on this idea of voters not wanting a GE and voter fatigue. Now when have we seen the media being totally out of step with the rest of the country...innocent face..
they said there couldnt be an early election and Mrs May was indecisive - wrong on both accounts it seems
But they definitely were not wrong on her being indecisive - if she is not indecisive and changed her mind in a month on seeking an early GE, then she lied about wanting to seek one before! So is she a liar, or is she indecisive?
And no, I don't expect her to face electoral consequences either way, but she was not decisive on this issue, she said repeatedly we were not having one, now we are.
shes a politician
I find it little short of amazing that people on a politics site expect politicians to be archbishops.
but youre on
would you like to pay up now ? :-)
so thats £20 Salmond loses his seat proceeds to the site
none of your dodgy scottish notes either :-)
real money !0 -
Very modest ratings for TV news last night:
BBC1 6pm - 4.60m
BBC1 10pm - 3.86m
ITV 6.30pm - 3.06m
ITV 10pm - 1.01m
If anything a bit lower than normal for this time of year.
Implies lack of public interest - may point to low turnout but also more importantly people not interested in the campaign - minds already made up - so hard for any party to significantly change existing poll ratings. Also apathy following recent GE and referenda.0 -
I can't see how they won't gain seats. they got 9 when they got no votes. Local by-elections show they have a chance. more than 20 nailed on.rcs1000 said:
No gains at all?YBarddCwsc said:
That is a very commendable first effort, beating ChrisA’s 50 LD seats.Insider said:Libs may well do better than forecast. 55 seats in 2010 means they have form. Labour demise could mean they get 70 seats
But, it dwarfs WilliamGlenn’s spectacle of 150 LD MPs.
My guess is that they’ll get ~10 MPs.
Not Edinburgh West nor Fife NE nor Dumbartonshire East?
Not even in leafy SW London? Or the hearts of Remainia? And no benefit from Labour being down 5 percentage points or more, while the LDs have increased their vote share by 50%?
I reckon 12 seats in the minimum.0 -
He said Theresa May should eat a polonium pill and he hoped she went blind and lost a few limbs as a result of her diabetes.SeanT said:
Speaking as an egregiously offensive bastard, I'm all agog to know what Justin said that was SO bad, to shock so many?Anorak said:
Assuming you're talking about amputations, Hitler, "lying bitches", and polonium, then the comments are all still there. If that's the moderate stuff that wasn't deleted, then, well, I'm not sure what to say...MikeSmithson said:
It has been deletedFrancisUrquhart said:
Pure filth, the likes we haven't seem on here for a long long time.Sean_F said:I certainly think Justin124 merits a ban for his comments on the last thread.
I was out walking the Sussex bluebell woods all day - and very very beautiful they were. Perfect Spring weather. Lovely.
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strategic tactical voting, a paradox, will always fail. Bring it on though as will destroy Labour.bobajobPB said:
Guffaw. Let the frothing commence.Theuniondivvie said:Lights fuse etc
https://twitter.com/bingomouse75/status/8547637837675888800 -
Problem they would then be faced with is converting the temporary gains. The new MPs would need to do really well by all those voters who never ever thought they'd be voting Conservative, to have any chance of getting another vote once Mr Corbyn is replaced.Insider said:
That means the Government would need to really well by those voters, and what have the Government got to offer them?0 -
And he won't live it down quickly. PB has a long memory... IOS, for instance *innocent face*rcs1000 said:
He said Theresa May should eat a polonium pill and he hoped she went blind and lost a few limbs as a result of her diabetes.SeanT said:
Speaking as an egregiously offensive bastard, I'm all agog to know what Justin said that was SO bad, to shock so many?Anorak said:
Assuming you're talking about amputations, Hitler, "lying bitches", and polonium, then the comments are all still there. If that's the moderate stuff that wasn't deleted, then, well, I'm not sure what to say...MikeSmithson said:
It has been deletedFrancisUrquhart said:
Pure filth, the likes we haven't seem on here for a long long time.Sean_F said:I certainly think Justin124 merits a ban for his comments on the last thread.
I was out walking the Sussex bluebell woods all day - and very very beautiful they were. Perfect Spring weather. Lovely.0 -
They have 8 seats plus Richmond. I expect they will lose Carshalton & Southport. And possibly Ceredigion where the MP has been mired in election expenses scandal.rcs1000 said:
No gains at all?YBarddCwsc said:
That is a very commendable first effort, beating ChrisA’s 50 LD seats.Insider said:Libs may well do better than forecast. 55 seats in 2010 means they have form. Labour demise could mean they get 70 seats
But, it dwarfs WilliamGlenn’s spectacle of 150 LD MPs.
My guess is that they’ll get ~10 MPs.
Not Edinburgh West nor Fife NE nor Dumbartonshire East?
Not even in leafy SW London? Or the hearts of Remainia? And no benefit from Labour being down 5 percentage points or more, while the LDs have increased their vote share by 50%?
I reckon 12 seats in the minimum.
I expect they will gain two seats in London (say Twickenham and Sutton). The University seats are mainly in the hands of fervent Remainer Labour MPs, except Bath. I think they will probably take Bath.
I think they will gain one, perhaps two of their old Scottish redoubts.
That makes 11., possibly 12.
Cambridge and the egregious Mr Huppert -- he’s got a tough fight on, in my opinion.0 -
102 I believe, by Mike K.RobD said:
Almost on par with the prediction of UKIP at 100 MPs in 2015!!YBarddCwsc said:
That is a very commendable first effort, beating ChrisA’s 50 LD seats.Insider said:Libs may well do better than forecast. 55 seats in 2010 means they have form. Labour demise could mean they get 70 seats
But, it dwarfs WilliamGlenn’s spectacle of 150 LD MPs.
My guess is that they’ll get ~10 MPs.
It should be easier to get right this time.0 -
Sky just announced that US House of Representatives Speaker, Paul Ryan, said today, on a visit to London, that the US is ready to forge a new bi-lateral trade deal with the UK as soon as possible.
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How are you going to form a "progressive" alliance to stop Brexit when the biggest party of the left is split from top to bottom in favour of Remain and Leave?Theuniondivvie said:Lights fuse etc
https://twitter.com/bingomouse75/status/8547637837675888800 -
Banter.rcs1000 said:
He said Theresa May should eat a polonium pill and he hoped she went blind and lost a few limbs as a result of her diabetes.SeanT said:
Speaking as an egregiously offensive bastard, I'm all agog to know what Justin said that was SO bad, to shock so many?Anorak said:
Assuming you're talking about amputations, Hitler, "lying bitches", and polonium, then the comments are all still there. If that's the moderate stuff that wasn't deleted, then, well, I'm not sure what to say...MikeSmithson said:
It has been deletedFrancisUrquhart said:
Pure filth, the likes we haven't seem on here for a long long time.Sean_F said:I certainly think Justin124 merits a ban for his comments on the last thread.
I was out walking the Sussex bluebell woods all day - and very very beautiful they were. Perfect Spring weather. Lovely.0 -
Farage is the wildcard. He just might do it. Although he probably won'tfoxinsoxuk said:
102 I believe, by Mike K.RobD said:
Almost on par with the prediction of UKIP at 100 MPs in 2015!!YBarddCwsc said:
That is a very commendable first effort, beating ChrisA’s 50 LD seats.Insider said:Libs may well do better than forecast. 55 seats in 2010 means they have form. Labour demise could mean they get 70 seats
But, it dwarfs WilliamGlenn’s spectacle of 150 LD MPs.
My guess is that they’ll get ~10 MPs.
It should be easier to get right this time.
0 -
It was unnecessary and unacceptableIshmael_Z said:
Banter.rcs1000 said:
He said Theresa May should eat a polonium pill and he hoped she went blind and lost a few limbs as a result of her diabetes.SeanT said:
Speaking as an egregiously offensive bastard, I'm all agog to know what Justin said that was SO bad, to shock so many?Anorak said:
Assuming you're talking about amputations, Hitler, "lying bitches", and polonium, then the comments are all still there. If that's the moderate stuff that wasn't deleted, then, well, I'm not sure what to say...MikeSmithson said:
It has been deletedFrancisUrquhart said:
Pure filth, the likes we haven't seem on here for a long long time.Sean_F said:I certainly think Justin124 merits a ban for his comments on the last thread.
I was out walking the Sussex bluebell woods all day - and very very beautiful they were. Perfect Spring weather. Lovely.0 -
Ooh Aah just a little bit.MaxPB said:
Delusions of grandeur.Theuniondivvie said:Lights fuse etc
https://twitter.com/bingomouse75/status/8547637837675888800 -
I'm shocked our william did not post that. He loves keeping PB up to date with the latest trade negotiations.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky just announced that US House of Representatives Speaker, Paul Ryan, said today, on a visit to London, that the US is ready to forge a new bi-lateral trade deal with the UK as soon as possible.
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No. Labour's factions are at war with each other (the Far Left particularly loathes the Blairites.) Association with Corbynite Labour is electorally toxic to the Liberal Democrats, whose main hope is to profit from Remainer sentiment against Tory incumbents in parts of the South. And the rotten smell of a "Progressive" Government propped up by Scottish Nationalism (something that most English voters distrust if not despise) hangs over all efforts to construct such a thing.Sean_F said:So does the "Progressive Alliance" have a chance?
The progressive alliance is a comfort blanket for anti-Tories who don't want to put in the many years of hard work rebuilding trust, and painful compromises with the electorate over policy, needed to win a General Election. It assumes that having unpopular policies and a very unpopular leader is something that can easily be overcome, if only the various niche or weak parties arrayed against the Conservatives merely agreed a slate of unity candidates. That's bollocks.
A centre-left revival will come either when Labour regains credibility, or is gradually and methodically wiped out by an alternative Opposition that possesses it. There are no convenient shortcuts to this end.0 -
TM's viewSean_F said:So does the "Progressive Alliance" have a chance?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/19/nicola-sturgeon-says-snp-will-seek-progressive-alliance-labour/0 -
Way beyond banter.Ishmael_Z said:
Banter.rcs1000 said:
He said Theresa May should eat a polonium pill and he hoped she went blind and lost a few limbs as a result of her diabetes.SeanT said:
Speaking as an egregiously offensive bastard, I'm all agog to know what Justin said that was SO bad, to shock so many?Anorak said:
Assuming you're talking about amputations, Hitler, "lying bitches", and polonium, then the comments are all still there. If that's the moderate stuff that wasn't deleted, then, well, I'm not sure what to say...MikeSmithson said:
It has been deletedFrancisUrquhart said:
Pure filth, the likes we haven't seem on here for a long long time.Sean_F said:I certainly think Justin124 merits a ban for his comments on the last thread.
I was out walking the Sussex bluebell woods all day - and very very beautiful they were. Perfect Spring weather. Lovely.0 -
Libs can benefit from Lab demise and win back blue seats. If they got 55 in 2010, then they could get 70 this time. Might be worth a flutter0
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Is a bad deal better than no deal?RobD said:
I'm shocked our william did not post that. He loves keeping PB up to date with the latest trade negotiations.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky just announced that US House of Representatives Speaker, Paul Ryan, said today, on a visit to London, that the US is ready to forge a new bi-lateral trade deal with the UK as soon as possible.
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I have only ever met one LibDem MP. I was seriously unimpressed.FrancisUrquhart said:
I met Norman lamb, I was impressed. His heart was really in the right place during the coalition and he put in place some things relating to people with learning difficulties which have gone largely unnoticed and hopefully made some real differences to people lives.rcs1000 said:
I was fond of Norman Baker too. (And Lamb is OK.)FrancisUrquhart said:Cable was bloody useless in the coalition. All their supposed wisdom and he got the square root of fuck all done. In comparison beaker the former park ranger was very harshly treated to lose their seat. Him and Webb are big losses for the lib dems.
The rest, not so much.
He was like the anti-chuka...Much better in person and really sincere / knew his stuff.
Not that I have ever met more than a couple of other MPs of any party, but those others have had at least some sort of presence.0 -
Seriously, you’re predicting the Lib Dems to gain 61 seats? – Oh and welcome btw.Insider said:Libs can benefit from Lab demise and win back blue seats. If they got 55 in 2010, then they could get 70 this time. Might be worth a flutter
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That was intended ironically.RobD said:
Way beyond banter.Ishmael_Z said:
Banter.rcs1000 said:
He said Theresa May should eat a polonium pill and he hoped she went blind and lost a few limbs as a result of her diabetes.SeanT said:
Speaking as an egregiously offensive bastard, I'm all agog to know what Justin said that was SO bad, to shock so many?Anorak said:
Assuming you're talking about amputations, Hitler, "lying bitches", and polonium, then the comments are all still there. If that's the moderate stuff that wasn't deleted, then, well, I'm not sure what to say...MikeSmithson said:
It has been deletedFrancisUrquhart said:
Pure filth, the likes we haven't seem on here for a long long time.Sean_F said:I certainly think Justin124 merits a ban for his comments on the last thread.
I was out walking the Sussex bluebell woods all day - and very very beautiful they were. Perfect Spring weather. Lovely.0 -
Oh dear oh dear. Both Malc and Nicola out of touch with the Scottish electorate who are in favour of the GE (net +17). Heck, even SNP voters are in favour - but by a much smaller margin- I wonder why? I they were awfully keen on votes?malcolmg said:
Oh dear oh dear, you are down to scrabbling in the gutter already. Desperate times.CarlottaVance said:Barely had the Prime Minister shut the door of Number 10 behind her than the SNP leader was beating a path to the nearest BBC camera.
She can’t get someone halfway competent to run Scotland’s schools but she knows where to find Brian Taylor and a microphone in a pinch.
Miss Sturgeon pronounced Theresa May guilty of a ‘huge political miscalculation’ for calling an early general election. This means one of two things: 1) Theresa May made a huge political miscalculation in calling an early election, or 2) Nicola Sturgeon does not want a general election at this moment in time.
https://stephendaisley.com/2017/04/19/sturgeon-knows-her-party-has-peaked-thats-why-she-doesnt-want-this-election/0
