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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why the Conservatives may fall short of their hopes
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why the Conservatives may fall short of their hopes
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Third
Got to run, but in response to the second bullet point, polling indicates 68% support the election being held, with 26% opposed. So, I'm not sure that's a problem.
Still early to assess how many incumbents are stepping down, but it does appear that some Labour MPs don't fancy their chances on June 8th.
We all know this is in the bag, so people won't turn out.
(Except in Scotland, I think turnout might rise)
To be clear there are 49 Lab seats with majority less than 10 pts, 42 that wd be lost to Cons on 5% swing, 81 that wd likely go on 10% swing
Matthew Goodwin @GoodwinMJ
There are around 50 Lab seats that wd fall to Cons on just a 5% swing -which underlines how easy it would be for Lab to fall under 200 mark
Violating a sense of Fair Play - not taking part in the TV debates is being frit, not anything to do with playing fair, I would think. While it has been done mostly for partisan advantage, the fact Labour agreed to do it I think will undercut any attempt to suggest this was for the Tory interest above the country - if Labour for instance say that, why did they vote for it?
The Crushing of the Saboteurs - That headline was disgusting, and I hope it cost them some votes at least. Hubris and general arrogance is a powerful potential issue for the Tories. They are trying not to be overconfident, you can tell, but someone will crack in the campaign, particularly if the locals go very well, and there will be gloating and 'rue the day' type stuff which could put some off. But overall the strong position means I don't think it can change the direction of travel.
Brexit means Brexit? - Yes, I think you've called this one right. So far she's seeking a mandate for a blank cheque.
The lack of any credible threat - Careful, 'I don't know a single person who x' is the sort of thing Milibanders said in shock after they lost! But I think it's right turnout will be down as a result - AlistairMeeks put it will when he identified two trends, the returning labour voters scared into ensuring the party survives even if they are very dispirited by Corbyn, and those who stay at home, with the latter being larger, though the first might save more seats than thought.
30-40 losses for Lab, max.
The 0.7% of GDP for overseas aid is something we can and should be very proud of.
There will always be issues about how these things are administered and who gets the money but that is a question of reviewing and revising our criteria for overseas aid, not getting rid of or reducing it. I hope that leaving the EU might help this as significant amounts of overseas aid was channelled through them and the convoluted way in which it was administered made the whole thing rather opaque.
But the basic principle that rich countries should help poor ones for the long term benefit of everyone seems very sensible and admirable to me.
I would add that I have never understood the antipathy amongst some Tory politicians towards overseas aid. It seems a very old fashioned Conservative thing to do to help those les fortunate than oneself.
MPs who want to stand again can do so subject to the approval of either their exec or full membership. Candidates from target seats (unclear whether this is 2015 or 2017), can do the same.
Where there's a vacancy in a Con-held seat or a key target, there'll be a shortlist of three drawn up between the CCHQ and the Association officers and put to a general meeting.
For the non-target seats (which given current polling may be some which are ultimately gained), CCHQ will impose a candidate. I can foresee some grumbling about that.
So I should only have one selection to run rather than two. Woohoo.
https://yougov.co.uk/opi/surveys/results#/survey/ac4f13f0-241b-11e7-939c-aada186fb1ac/question/105547e0-241f-11e7-939c-aada186fb1ac/toplines
It's the last time for REMAIN to stop Brexit and LEAVE to secure Brexit. Turnout will be high.
Add to that the Jezza Factor and I think we can say Theresa May is on for a big win on a high turnout.
https://www.wessexfm.com/news/dorset-news/2271845/oliver-letwin-to-stand-again-in-june-general-election/
There have been lots of comments from right wing posters that rival it over the last year, though.
Be nice, people. Let's stick to betting.
Public think Theresa May right to call an early election by three to one
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/04/18/public-think-theresa-may-right-call-early-election/
(Sorry, I may have missed such examples due to not being on much during the working hours)
For god's sake man, you're both out of UKIP now, let it go!
https://order-order.com/2017/04/19/arron-banks-know-nothing-clacton/
1) I was told Letwin knows his stuff, and can analyse new stuff straight away.
2) He doesn't mind being the fall guy when something does go wrong, even when it isn't his fault
3) He's a very nice man
If he was as bad as people think he is, do you think Mrs Thatcher would have kept him on as her Policy Unit Chief for three years?
they said there couldnt be an early election and Mrs May was indecisive - wrong on both accounts it seems
Plenty of soon to be ex Glasgow councillors might fancy a shot.
https://www.twitter.com/schafersam/status/854272498342522880
https://www.twitter.com/schafersam/status/854273096806739968
https://www.twitter.com/schafersam/status/854273356794929153
Not sure i agree on it being an old fashioned conservative thing to do!
Generally I think conservatives would say they prefer private charity?
On a random related note, Freakonomics had two guys from the nudge unit on the other week. Very interesting. One of Team Cameron's good things and UK government should be doing more of it.
One is lack of message discipline from Conservatives, with the media asking candidates from different wings what they think Brexit means Brexit actually does mean.
Second will be if Conservatives try to repudiate promises made in the Brexit referendum, such as £350 million a week to the NHS.
That, along with Cameron's no tax rises promise and the triple lock on pensions promises has just flown out of the window.
Taxes to go up, pensioners to be hit...any opposition with an ounce of sense will jump on that. ..of course we don't have one
Not that they'll particularly matter.
But they definitely were not wrong on her being indecisive - if she is not indecisive and changed her mind in a month on seeking an early GE, then she lied about wanting to seek one before! So is she a liar, or is she indecisive?
And no, I don't expect her to face electoral consequences either way, but she was not decisive on this issue, she said repeatedly we were not having one, now we are.
Tories - Brexit means Brexit
Lib Dem - No we don't have to Brexit
Labour - NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS
SNP - IndyRef2
UKIP - Brexit means rock hard Brexit.
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/what-snap-election-means-existing-major-bills-and-policies
I thought it very likely she would hold a snap GE right up to the point that the A50 trigger passed (indeed, I was semi-expecting an announcement to coincide with the A50 trigger, or making the trigger conditional on winning a majority with a "Within 24 hours, I'll be on the train to brussels with this piece of paper in my hand" campaign).
Once A50 had passed though, I began to change my mind and figured she was just a bit crap at politics and walking into a gigantic hole.
He read everything. Everything they sent them and when they briefed had loads of questions that showed he had really got to grips with it. Colleague hated it but said it was bloody impressive.
It'll tell us whether TM has really got into bed with the bastards.
shes a politician
I find it little short of amazing that people on a politics site expect politicians to be archbishops.
The Scotsman are reporting that she's going for it.
The temptation was always very high, and if she thought it benefited the party and country enough of course she'd do it.
What is silly is the idea that this proves she is decisive.
Backing out of your word can be the right call, and even if it isn't, well, its politics, voters will judge you for it if they want. But it argues against her being decisive.
I have always voted Conservative in past General Elections.
I voted remain in 2016, so in this GE I think I will vote Lib Dem. Hopefully the Lib Dems will commit to revoking article 50 and continuing EU membership on the terms pre A50. I know of other Tory voters living in the same Constituency that are going to vote LD this time because of Brexit. It will probably mean the potential Tory gain of a Labour seat will not happen here if enough people do likewise. I don't think the Tories will convert lifelong Labour voters to support them whether they were for Brexit or not.