politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Fillon moves to second favourite in the French race after new

#presitrack 17/04MLP 22% (-1)EM 22% (=)FF 21% (+1)JLM 18% (+1)BH 8% (-1)@LesEchos @ORPI_France @radioclassique https://t.co/7ux5fUL7f6 pic.twitter.com/cvdDDGqL8g
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SECOND!
Sigh: original article said Five horse race, but my dad edited it to say Four. So the joke(s) are lost.
In the first round it's all about shoring up your core vote. In the second round about being the least objectionable to the most number of people. Macron is the odd one out because he doesn't have a core vote to shore up. However he does have distinct message - that France can progress by embracing the modern world. The three others all think the modern world is a problem. Macron has to hope that a quarter of French men and women agree sufficiently to vote for him. If they do, he will probably win by being less objectionable then the other one. I can't see Melenchon voters switching to Fillon or vice versa. It's doubtful Le Pen has detoxified her party enough to win half the votes.
If Le Pen doesn't make it, now that'd be embarrassing after being most likely to get through to the final poll for so long. Parents always let you down.
But wait...what's this? Sputnik News, who got their fingers rapped by France's polling commission for giving too much weight to a poll by Moscow-based Brand Analytics which showed Fillon in the lead, are doing it again! The BA poll to which they refer today has the candidates as follows:
Fillon 24.4%
Macron 22.3%
Mélenchon 19.9%
Le Pen 16.3%
Hamon 7.1%
Dupont-Aignan 1.7%
What a load of codswallop!
Anyway, I must be off.
https://twitter.com/BraidenHT/status/854032447461261312
Only 7 Kippertories would surely be disappointing in the home of the Scottish ultra Yoon.
SLAB - 18%
SCON + 1%
Greens N/C
He meant to type Tories 44, SNP 7
Well at least they had more viewers than Naughty Cats Make You Laugh Out Loud.
Just.
I know the weather in Scotland can be rough, but it's not quite as bad as the Antarctic.
Too late now but Euro-federalist Clarkson should have been hired by the Remain campaign. His words were far more heartfelt and positive than most from that side of the argument even if they must have caused some of his Mail-reading fans to choke in horror
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2016/03/13/jeremy-clarkson-remaining-european-union_n_9450576.html
https://youtu.be/0a2lv4IwZFY
On the positive side...The h'american was good.
Where Top Gear also struggles is that unlike The Grand Tour, it ain't filmed in 4k.
Watching things in 4k is an absolute treat.
Macron 24 (-0.5)
Melenchon 22 (+2.5)
Le Pen 21.5 (-2.5)
Fillon 17.5 (+2)
https://blog-scanresearch.leterrain.fr/2017/04/17/jl-melenchon-devance-de-peu-m-le-pen/
Are they ahead of the curve or is it an outlier?
https://order-order.com/2017/04/17/no-mug-burnham-not-a-fan-of-posh-coffee/
https://twitter.com/GOsborneGenius/status/853749857567346688
Mélenchon promises to withdraw. Le Pen and Dupont-Aignan promise to withdraw from the integrated command structure. Fillon and Macron are basically fine with NATO as it is.
Say you're Putin. Who are you going to support?
Meanwhile, on the front page of his website Fillon is telling people how to vote by proxy. I suppose proxy is one of the things that established party machines are good at.
https://twitter.com/CNNTURK_ENG/status/854059951106424836
'Liam Fox's team travelled 240,000 miles during 35 trips - but have made NO post-Brexit trade deals'
http://tinyurl.com/kf4zw3j
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017
If you do fancy Fillon, I'd suggest going for the first round win stakes - you can get 7 there and are basically gambling on a late surge putting him over. If he takes out Le Pen, he simply loses to Macron. I agree that if he takes out Macron, he wins, but that still looks unlikely.
Mmm
President of France ??
And if you look at the polls he has plateaued since he became the front runner and the more you look at this the more it looks like Fillion really has a chance of not only getting into R2 but the Elysee
Utterly ridiculous.
[a href="http://www.some-website.com/index.html"]This[/a] is the article
replacing "[" and "]" with "<" and ">".
That comes out like this:
this is the article.
Less bother than going to tinyurl.com.
Overall, Macron and Le Pen still look neck-and-neck in the first round, with Fillon and Mélenchon disputing third place and around three to four points behind the top two.