Ishmael_Z said:

Mortimer said:

PClipp said:

MarkHopkins said:

At least in this country when we have a referendum the result is clear cut, no one argues about, or moans, or tries to go to Court to get it overturned, or asks for it to be re-run, or says that it was won on the back of lies, or anything like that.

You sound like a sore loser, Mr Hopkins.

(Leavers = Losers)

Remain Winning Here, eh Mr Clipp?

War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength. Leave is Remain.

Winners by small margin turn out to be Losers for the county.

So Opinium was the outlier.

If Con is 21 points ahead, then we could be looking at a new Con high or a new Lab low. The recent (post-2010) respective records are 47 for Con and 24 for Lab.

HYUFD said:

brokenwheel said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

chestnut said:

It's new. It's a Yougov to go with the Com Res.

Now that Labour are exclusively a party for well off Londoners I think we can safely assume they're all abroad on their aetheist easter Springtival hols.

Corrected for you...

Those not abroad were probably all too busy on their non-religious egg hunts to answer the phone or emails.

Speaking of which,

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/04/13/only-55-brits-associate-jesus-christ-easter/

"New YouGov research finds that the son of God is fourth on the list of things people associate with Easter."

Still, over 50% associate Jesus Christ with Easter

The important thing is 14% associate Easter with Simnel cake.

I had thought that the 21-pt ComRes lead was, if not an outlier, then certainly topside and was still working on the more recent 16-17 point leads that most polls had reported these last 2 months.

But if 21 is the new norm, what does that mean for May 4?

david_herdson said:

If Con is 21 points ahead, then we could be looking at a new Con high or a new Lab low. The recent (post-2010) respective records are 47 for Con and 24 for Lab.

If Tory is +4 and the comparable poll is the one on the YouGov website then tories are at 46%

TheScreamingEagles said:

david_herdson said:

I had thought that the 21-pt ComRes lead was, if not an outlier, then certainly topside and was still working on the more recent 16-17 point leads that most polls had reported these last 2 months.

But if 21 is the new norm, what does that mean for May 4?

It means the force is not with Corbyn or Labour on May the Fourth.

A local candidate's material in my patch did indeed sign off with 'May the 4th be with us'. It's cheesy, and hardly original, but I appreciated it nonetheless.

rottenborough said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

david_herdson said:

I had thought that the 21-pt ComRes lead was, if not an outlier, then certainly topside and was still working on the more recent 16-17 point leads that most polls had reported these last 2 months.

But if 21 is the new norm, what does that mean for May 4?

It means the force is not with Corbyn or Labour on May the Fourth.

It means the utter annihilation of Labour. Yet another leadership election this summer?

He did once say he wanted annual elections, I believe?

Managing expectations is going to be super easy for Labour at these locals - hold Gorton, the key mayoralties, and retain a single councillor in Scotland, and it shall be a triumph, as Cat Smith would say.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Makes you wonder what's the bloody point of Brexit?

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/853720195092930560

What in the actual ?!

Are people selling coffee actually net economic contributors when all costs have been taken into account.
I don't, I mean I can't get my head round this. There's never been many near where I've lived mainly because people don't like to buy shite overpriced coffee.
I'm a remainer and I don't see the point of this. Its not as essential job. Is this some sort of London thing ?

TheScreamingEagles said:

david_herdson said:

I had thought that the 21-pt ComRes lead was, if not an outlier, then certainly topside and was still working on the more recent 16-17 point leads that most polls had reported these last 2 months.

But if 21 is the new norm, what does that mean for May 4?

It means the force is not with Corbyn or Labour on May the Fourth.

Ah, but Corbyn looks like Obi-Wan. If you strike him down, he'll become more powerful than you can ever imagine.

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Makes you wonder what's the bloody point of Brexit?

Surely it's the perfect occupation for our own frothers.

Bravo

kle4 said:

Managing expectations is going to be super easy for Labour at these locals - hold Gorton, the key mayoralties, and retain a single councillor in Scotland, and it shall be a triumph, as Cat Smith would say.

Pyrrhic victory. Jezza stays. The agony continues.

kle4 said:

Managing expectations is going to be super easy for Labour at these locals - hold Gorton, the key mayoralties, and retain a single councillor in Scotland, and it shall be a triumph, as Cat Smith would say.

Which are the key mayoralties? If 21% is right, only Liverpool can be regarded as confidently safe.

david_herdson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

david_herdson said:

I had thought that the 21-pt ComRes lead was, if not an outlier, then certainly topside and was still working on the more recent 16-17 point leads that most polls had reported these last 2 months.

But if 21 is the new norm, what does that mean for May 4?

It means the force is not with Corbyn or Labour on May the Fourth.

Ah, but Corbyn looks like Obi-Wan. If you strike him down, he'll become more powerful than you can ever imagine.

We all know he's Jar Jar Binks.

david_herdson said:

rottenborough said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

david_herdson said:

I had thought that the 21-pt ComRes lead was, if not an outlier, then certainly topside and was still working on the more recent 16-17 point leads that most polls had reported these last 2 months.

But if 21 is the new norm, what does that mean for May 4?

It means the force is not with Corbyn or Labour on May the Fourth.

It means the utter annihilation of Labour. Yet another leadership election this summer?

None of the main parties has ever had contested leadership contests in three successive years. So that'd be another first for Corbyn.

The closest is Labour in 1960-1961-1963, though that last one was down to a death, so not quite the same.

He'll probably be happy. He is always happiest when zooming around the country on Virgin trains mouthing platitudes to his cult audience of political neophytes.

Surely it's only trendy metropolitan luvvies that use these coffee shops.
All right minded staunch brits drink tea.

FrancisUrquhart said:

rottenborough said:

david_herdson said:

rottenborough said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

david_herdson said:

I had thought that the 21-pt ComRes lead was, if not an outlier, then certainly topside and was still working on the more recent 16-17 point leads that most polls had reported these last 2 months.

But if 21 is the new norm, what does that mean for May 4?

It means the force is not with Corbyn or Labour on May the Fourth.

It means the utter annihilation of Labour. Yet another leadership election this summer?

None of the main parties has ever had contested leadership contests in three successive years. So that'd be another first for Corbyn.

The closest is Labour in 1960-1961-1963, though that last one was down to a death, so not quite the same.

He'll probably be happy. He is always happiest when zooming around the country on Virgin trains mouthing platitudes to his cult audience of political neophytes.

I am surprised he isn't boycotting Virgin trains for some or other reason relating to beardy branson or how they treat unions or something.

His last known public appearance was in a train toilet wearing a baseball cap iirc. I have no idea why, but seems suitable.

OUT said:

Surely it's only trendy metropolitan luvvies that use these coffee shops.
All right minded staunch brits drink tea.

Sod the NHS, Amber Rudd can't bear to go without her morning Starbucks.

Scrapheap_as_was said:

shortly... there will be a new thread.....

Nope, Mike's on holiday and in bed, and my stint as Editor of PB on Sunday ends at 10.30pm on Sundays.

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

shortly... there will be a new thread.....

Nope, Mike's on holiday and in bed, and my stint as Editor of PB on Sunday ends at 10.30pm on Sundays.

Oh god....global thermo-nuclear war is nailed on then.

It's a UK based holiday, and he's been on on holiday since last week, experience tells me the major stuff only happens when Mike goes abroad.

YouGov


Con 44 (+2) Lab 23 (-2) Lib Dems 12 (+1) UKIP 10 (-1)

TheScreamingEagles said:

YouGov


Con 44 (+2) Lab 23 (-2) Lib Dems 12 (+1) UKIP 10 (-1)

Labour's share of the vote is the lowest YouGov have recorded since 2009.

The Liberal Democrats have climbed back to 12 per cent, their equal best level of public support this parliament, which they matched once before in December.

TheScreamingEagles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

YouGov


Con 44 (+2) Lab 23 (-2) Lib Dems 12 (+1) UKIP 10 (-1)

Labour's share of the vote is the lowest YouGov have recorded since 2009.

5...4...3...2...1....Justin Short Straws tell us why it isn't that bad for Labour and GE 2020 will be very close.

brokenwheel said:

I don't want Corbyn to go

Not yet.

In all seriousness, he's in no danger of going just yet - short of an apocalypse on May 4th (eg Gorton being lost), they won't even challenge him again.

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/853748235764191232

No_Offence_Alan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

YouGov


Con 44 (+2) Lab 23 (-2) Lib Dems 12 (+1) UKIP 10 (-1)

I thought Labour's floor was 25%?

Margin of error.

kle4 said:

brokenwheel said:

I don't want Corbyn to go

Not yet.

In all seriousness, he's in no danger of going just yet - short of an apocalypse on May 4th (eg Gorton being lost), they won't even challenge him again.

What you are trying to say is that Kim Jong Un is in more danger of being replaced than the supreme leader of the UK.

No_Offence_Alan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

YouGov


Con 44 (+2) Lab 23 (-2) Lib Dems 12 (+1) UKIP 10 (-1)

I thought Labour's floor was 25%?

Well the Corbynites will tell you the polls have been wrong in the past.

I talked to a pollster last week, and I mentioned the fact I tipped Labour to poll below 20% at the next general election, he told me I might as well start spending my winnings already.

TheScreamingEagles said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

YouGov


Con 44 (+2) Lab 23 (-2) Lib Dems 12 (+1) UKIP 10 (-1)

I thought Labour's floor was 25%?

Well the Corbynites will tell you the polls have been wrong in the past.

I talked to a pollster last week, and I mentioned the fact I tipped Labour to poll below 20% at the next general election, he told me I might as well start spending my winnings already.

Have Paddy Power out on the Tories winning the 2020 GE yet? Gotta be pretty soon if they haven't.

TheScreamingEagles said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

YouGov


Con 44 (+2) Lab 23 (-2) Lib Dems 12 (+1) UKIP 10 (-1)

I thought Labour's floor was 25%?

Well the Corbynites will tell you the polls have been wrong in the past.
.

But they like polls now - there were those ones showing Labour policies were popular and Corbyn's name didn't drag down approval of them either.

Plus I hear his name alone is worth 20 points. I forget who it was worth 20 points to, but that's probably not important.

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

YouGov


Con 44 (+2) Lab 23 (-2) Lib Dems 12 (+1) UKIP 10 (-1)

I thought Labour's floor was 25%?

Well the Corbynites will tell you the polls have been wrong in the past.
.

But they like polls now - there were those ones showing Labour policies were popular and Corbyn's name didn't drag down approval of them either.

Plus I hear his name alone is worth 20 points. I forget who it was worth 20 points to, but that's probably not important.

This is what Mike and Matt Singh tweeted a few days ago.

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/850340274329006080

https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/850342037849329665

AndyJS said:

"The pragmatic case for moving Britain’s capital to Manchester"

http://www.economist.com/blogs/bagehot/2017/02/go-north

I'm no fan of London, but I don't like the idea myself. The benefits to such options always seem overly optimistic to me, as well as reaching to areas I am not convinced it would (piercing the establishment bubble for instance - the idea moving the political capital would affect the culture to any significant degree is unrealistic as far as I can see, supposition more than anything else, like the idea abandoning a few archaic but harmless traditions will suddenly make politics more open and engaging to normal people). Although it is true the costs, of moving or renovating the Palace for working use (I assume renovating as a museum would cost less, while still being expensive), will be enormous. I assume we should just quadruple any estimate and triple the time estimate too.

But I hear Manchester is nice.

NEW THREAD

AndyJS said:

Labour members were warned that if they elected Corbyn as leader they would eventually be down to 20% in the polls. They didn't listen.

They still believe in him (or in the brand, in spite of him). 25% didn't phase them, 23% won't, nor will 20%. Copeland barely phased them. No MPs will jump ship to another party, I guarantee it. It's doubtful if any will even go Indy. If the polls and previous results and the leadership group of the party cannot cause the members to wake up, what will? Will Gorton (which will be easily won) be enough? Greater Manchester? Even Liverpool?

justin124 said:

RobD said:

justin124 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

kle4 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

So two polls that past 24hrs, are the Tories leading by 9 or 21% ?

Probably neither, although number cruncher tried answering the same question.

https://www.ncpolitics.uk/2017/04/is-the-conservative-lead-21-points-or-9-points.html/

I get the difficulty over the Easter hols, but it does make pollsters look pretty ridiculous when you are getting a giant difference and the direction of travel being polar opposite.

When the robots have taken over, at least the first issue won't be a problem as they don't take holidays...

Indeed! On the same basis why should we trust polls conducted in the holiday months of July and August?

People's holidays are more spread out over that period.

Maybe so - but Easter is hardly like Xmas. How many people really travel far at this time of the year?

I suspect that its become more frequent in recent years, ditto the October school holidays. I have certainly noticed that far more people with kids are choosing to take them away for a break at Easter or in October rather than during the Summer, unless your budget runs to two or more holidays a year.