Now that Labour are exclusively a party for well off Londoners I think we can safely assume they're all abroad on their aetheist easterSpringtival hols.
Corrected for you...
Those not abroad were probably all too busy on their non-religious egg hunts to answer the phone or emails.
At least in this country when we have a referendum the result is clear cut, no one argues about, or moans, or tries to go to Court to get it overturned, or asks for it to be re-run, or says that it was won on the back of lies, or anything like that.
You sound like a sore loser, Mr Hopkins.
(Leavers = Losers)
Remain Winning Here, eh Mr Clipp?
War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength. Leave is Remain.
Winners by small margin turn out to be Losers for the county.
Now that Labour are exclusively a party for well off Londoners I think we can safely assume they're all abroad on their aetheist easterSpringtival hols.
Corrected for you...
Those not abroad were probably all too busy on their non-religious egg hunts to answer the phone or emails.
If Con is 21 points ahead, then we could be looking at a new Con high or a new Lab low. The recent (post-2010) respective records are 47 for Con and 24 for Lab.
I still don't believe it, even as an upper range - this government is not extraordinary enough to get a 21 point lead, and Corbyn's Labour have been moribund for long enough that there's no reason for an uptick or downtick respectively.
Now that Labour are exclusively a party for well off Londoners I think we can safely assume they're all abroad on their aetheist easterSpringtival hols.
Corrected for you...
Those not abroad were probably all too busy on their non-religious egg hunts to answer the phone or emails.
I had thought that the 21-pt ComRes lead was, if not an outlier, then certainly topside and was still working on the more recent 16-17 point leads that most polls had reported these last 2 months.
But if 21 is the new norm, what does that mean for May 4?
I had thought that the 21-pt ComRes lead was, if not an outlier, then certainly topside and was still working on the more recent 16-17 point leads that most polls had reported these last 2 months.
But if 21 is the new norm, what does that mean for May 4?
It means the force is not with Corbyn or Labour on May the Fourth.
If Con is 21 points ahead, then we could be looking at a new Con high or a new Lab low. The recent (post-2010) respective records are 47 for Con and 24 for Lab.
If Tory is +4 and the comparable poll is the one on the YouGov website then tories are at 46%
I still don't believe it, even as an upper range - this government is not extraordinary enough to get a 21 point lead, and Corbyn's Labour have been moribund for long enough that there's no reason for an uptick or downtick respectively.
I don't believe it either. 25% for Labour? That's way too high.
I had thought that the 21-pt ComRes lead was, if not an outlier, then certainly topside and was still working on the more recent 16-17 point leads that most polls had reported these last 2 months.
But if 21 is the new norm, what does that mean for May 4?
It means the force is not with Corbyn or Labour on May the Fourth.
A local candidate's material in my patch did indeed sign off with 'May the 4th be with us'. It's cheesy, and hardly original, but I appreciated it nonetheless.
I had thought that the 21-pt ComRes lead was, if not an outlier, then certainly topside and was still working on the more recent 16-17 point leads that most polls had reported these last 2 months.
But if 21 is the new norm, what does that mean for May 4?
It means the force is not with Corbyn or Labour on May the Fourth.
It means the utter annihilation of Labour. Yet another leadership election this summer?
I had thought that the 21-pt ComRes lead was, if not an outlier, then certainly topside and was still working on the more recent 16-17 point leads that most polls had reported these last 2 months.
But if 21 is the new norm, what does that mean for May 4?
It means the force is not with Corbyn or Labour on May the Fourth.
It means the utter annihilation of Labour. Yet another leadership election this summer?
He did once say he wanted annual elections, I believe?
Managing expectations is going to be super easy for Labour at these locals - hold Gorton, the key mayoralties, and retain a single councillor in Scotland, and it shall be a triumph, as Cat Smith would say.
I still don't believe it, even as an upper range - this government is not extraordinary enough to get a 21 point lead, and Corbyn's Labour have been moribund for long enough that there's no reason for an uptick or downtick respectively.
I don't believe it either. 25% for Labour? That's way too high.
Indeed. Although for GE rather than locals - there is a slim chance that voters will see that local councillors, who are nothing to do with Corbyn, are doing a decent job. As I say, slim.
But GE 2019/20 is looking like Scotland-style wipeout for Labour. Midland marginals truly hate Corbyn and will vote accordingly.
Are people selling coffee actually net economic contributors when all costs have been taken into account. I don't, I mean I can't get my head round this. There's never been many near where I've lived mainly because people don't like to buy shite overpriced coffee. I'm a remainer and I don't see the point of this. Its not as essential job. Is this some sort of London thing ?
I had thought that the 21-pt ComRes lead was, if not an outlier, then certainly topside and was still working on the more recent 16-17 point leads that most polls had reported these last 2 months.
But if 21 is the new norm, what does that mean for May 4?
It means the force is not with Corbyn or Labour on May the Fourth.
Ah, but Corbyn looks like Obi-Wan. If you strike him down, he'll become more powerful than you can ever imagine.
I had thought that the 21-pt ComRes lead was, if not an outlier, then certainly topside and was still working on the more recent 16-17 point leads that most polls had reported these last 2 months.
But if 21 is the new norm, what does that mean for May 4?
It means the force is not with Corbyn or Labour on May the Fourth.
Ah, but Corbyn looks like Obi-Wan. If you strike him down, he'll become more powerful than you can ever imagine.
Are people selling coffee actually net economic contributors when all costs have been taken into account. I don't, I mean I can't get my head round this. There's never been many near where I've lived mainly because people don't like to buy shite overpriced coffee. I'm a remainer and I don't see the point of this. Its not as essential job. Is this some sort of London thing ?
Its even worse than the nonsense call that all curry restaurants will have to shut down if we make it much harder for people from the sub-continent to come to work in curry kitchens.
Managing expectations is going to be super easy for Labour at these locals - hold Gorton, the key mayoralties, and retain a single councillor in Scotland, and it shall be a triumph, as Cat Smith would say.
Pyrrhic victory. Jezza stays. The agony continues.
I had thought that the 21-pt ComRes lead was, if not an outlier, then certainly topside and was still working on the more recent 16-17 point leads that most polls had reported these last 2 months.
But if 21 is the new norm, what does that mean for May 4?
It means the force is not with Corbyn or Labour on May the Fourth.
It means the utter annihilation of Labour. Yet another leadership election this summer?
None of the main parties has ever had contested leadership contests in three successive years. So that'd be another first for Corbyn.
The closest is Labour in 1960-1961-1963, though that last one was down to a death, so not quite the same.
Managing expectations is going to be super easy for Labour at these locals - hold Gorton, the key mayoralties, and retain a single councillor in Scotland, and it shall be a triumph, as Cat Smith would say.
Which are the key mayoralties? If 21% is right, only Liverpool can be regarded as confidently safe.
I had thought that the 21-pt ComRes lead was, if not an outlier, then certainly topside and was still working on the more recent 16-17 point leads that most polls had reported these last 2 months.
But if 21 is the new norm, what does that mean for May 4?
It means the force is not with Corbyn or Labour on May the Fourth.
It means the utter annihilation of Labour. Yet another leadership election this summer?
None of the main parties has ever had contested leadership contests in three successive years. So that'd be another first for Corbyn.
The closest is Labour in 1960-1961-1963, though that last one was down to a death, so not quite the same.
I had thought that the 21-pt ComRes lead was, if not an outlier, then certainly topside and was still working on the more recent 16-17 point leads that most polls had reported these last 2 months.
But if 21 is the new norm, what does that mean for May 4?
It means the force is not with Corbyn or Labour on May the Fourth.
Ah, but Corbyn looks like Obi-Wan. If you strike him down, he'll become more powerful than you can ever imagine.
Managing expectations is going to be super easy for Labour at these locals - hold Gorton, the key mayoralties, and retain a single councillor in Scotland, and it shall be a triumph, as Cat Smith would say.
Which are the key mayoralties? If 21% is right, only Liverpool can be regarded as confidently safe.
Andy B will get in i suspect.
I think Labour could win the West Mids but lose Tees Valley, the latter is much more rural - I'd expect the swing there to be larger. The Tories won that BE in Middlesbrough the other day did they not ?
I had thought that the 21-pt ComRes lead was, if not an outlier, then certainly topside and was still working on the more recent 16-17 point leads that most polls had reported these last 2 months.
But if 21 is the new norm, what does that mean for May 4?
It means the force is not with Corbyn or Labour on May the Fourth.
It means the utter annihilation of Labour. Yet another leadership election this summer?
None of the main parties has ever had contested leadership contests in three successive years. So that'd be another first for Corbyn.
The closest is Labour in 1960-1961-1963, though that last one was down to a death, so not quite the same.
He'll probably be happy. He is always happiest when zooming around the country on Virgin trains mouthing platitudes to his cult audience of political neophytes.
Managing expectations is going to be super easy for Labour at these locals - hold Gorton, the key mayoralties, and retain a single councillor in Scotland, and it shall be a triumph, as Cat Smith would say.
Which are the key mayoralties? If 21% is right, only Liverpool can be regarded as confidently safe.
Layman's view? I'd think bottom of the barrel they have to win Liverpool and Greater Manchester.
I truly think the core Labour places will remain rock solid - there is just nowhere for non Corbynistas to go in such places, and push comes to shove they'll go for Labour rather than risk an alternative, especially as a local labour candidate may not be a Corbynista. Even at the lowest ends of the scale Liverpool is safe, and Greater Manchester surely should be, though not as safe.
I had thought that the 21-pt ComRes lead was, if not an outlier, then certainly topside and was still working on the more recent 16-17 point leads that most polls had reported these last 2 months.
But if 21 is the new norm, what does that mean for May 4?
It means the force is not with Corbyn or Labour on May the Fourth.
It means the utter annihilation of Labour. Yet another leadership election this summer?
None of the main parties has ever had contested leadership contests in three successive years. So that'd be another first for Corbyn.
The closest is Labour in 1960-1961-1963, though that last one was down to a death, so not quite the same.
He'll probably be happy. He is always happiest when zooming around the country on Virgin trains mouthing platitudes to his cult audience of political neophytes.
I am surprised he isn't boycotting Virgin trains for some or other reason relating to beardy branson or how they treat unions or something.
I had thought that the 21-pt ComRes lead was, if not an outlier, then certainly topside and was still working on the more recent 16-17 point leads that most polls had reported these last 2 months.
But if 21 is the new norm, what does that mean for May 4?
It means the force is not with Corbyn or Labour on May the Fourth.
It means the utter annihilation of Labour. Yet another leadership election this summer?
None of the main parties has ever had contested leadership contests in three successive years. So that'd be another first for Corbyn.
The closest is Labour in 1960-1961-1963, though that last one was down to a death, so not quite the same.
He'll probably be happy. He is always happiest when zooming around the country on Virgin trains mouthing platitudes to his cult audience of political neophytes.
I am surprised he isn't boycotting Virgin trains for some or other reason relating to beardy branson or how they treat unions or something.
His last known public appearance was in a train toilet wearing a baseball cap iirc. I have no idea why, but seems suitable.
Labour's share of the vote is the lowest YouGov have recorded since 2009.
The Liberal Democrats have climbed back to 12 per cent, their equal best level of public support this parliament, which they matched once before in December.
In all seriousness, he's in no danger of going just yet - short of an apocalypse on May 4th (eg Gorton being lost), they won't even challenge him again.
Don't worry the spread of 21st Century socialism is actually totally on track...it is just the Zionist run biased media that are faking these polls to try to derail the crowning of the supreme leader *....
In all seriousness, he's in no danger of going just yet - short of an apocalypse on May 4th (eg Gorton being lost), they won't even challenge him again.
What you are trying to say is that Kim Jong Un is in more danger of being replaced than the supreme leader of the UK.
Well the Corbynites will tell you the polls have been wrong in the past.
I talked to a pollster last week, and I mentioned the fact I tipped Labour to poll below 20% at the next general election, he told me I might as well start spending my winnings already.
Well the Corbynites will tell you the polls have been wrong in the past.
I talked to a pollster last week, and I mentioned the fact I tipped Labour to poll below 20% at the next general election, he told me I might as well start spending my winnings already.
Have Paddy Power out on the Tories winning the 2020 GE yet? Gotta be pretty soon if they haven't.
Don't worry the spread of 21st Century socialism is actually totally on track...it is just the Zionist run biased media that are faking these polls to try to derail the crowning of the supreme leader *....
* that is at least what my twitter feed says.
Remember I've been accused of being a Zionist pollster.
I'm no fan of London, but I don't like the idea myself. The benefits to such options always seem overly optimistic to me, as well as reaching to areas I am not convinced it would (piercing the establishment bubble for instance - the idea moving the political capital would affect the culture to any significant degree is unrealistic as far as I can see, supposition more than anything else, like the idea abandoning a few archaic but harmless traditions will suddenly make politics more open and engaging to normal people). Although it is true the costs, of moving or renovating the Palace for working use (I assume renovating as a museum would cost less, while still being expensive), will be enormous. I assume we should just quadruple any estimate and triple the time estimate too.
Labour members were warned that if they elected Corbyn as leader they would eventually be down to 20% in the polls. They didn't listen.
They still believe in him (or in the brand, in spite of him). 25% didn't phase them, 23% won't, nor will 20%. Copeland barely phased them. No MPs will jump ship to another party, I guarantee it. It's doubtful if any will even go Indy. If the polls and previous results and the leadership group of the party cannot cause the members to wake up, what will? Will Gorton (which will be easily won) be enough? Greater Manchester? Even Liverpool?
I wouldn't be surprised if, in ten years' time, Turkey is an islamo-fascist hell-hole with an Iraqi-style civil war and mass flight of the urban youth to Europe.
I get the difficulty over the Easter hols, but it does make pollsters look pretty ridiculous when you are getting a giant difference and the direction of travel being polar opposite.
When the robots have taken over, at least the first issue won't be a problem as they don't take holidays...
Indeed! On the same basis why should we trust polls conducted in the holiday months of July and August?
People's holidays are more spread out over that period.
Maybe so - but Easter is hardly like Xmas. How many people really travel far at this time of the year?
I suspect that its become more frequent in recent years, ditto the October school holidays. I have certainly noticed that far more people with kids are choosing to take them away for a break at Easter or in October rather than during the Summer, unless your budget runs to two or more holidays a year.
I'd rather back Chelsea to win this season's Premier League title at the same 1/6 odds and see my winnings paid in 4 weeks' time rather than having to wait 8 months to see Bercow continue as Speaker into 2018.
Comments
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/04/13/only-55-brits-associate-jesus-christ-easter/
"New YouGov research finds that the son of God is fourth on the list of things people associate with Easter."
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/853720195092930560
But if 21 is the new norm, what does that mean for May 4?
But GE 2019/20 is looking like Scotland-style wipeout for Labour. Midland marginals truly hate Corbyn and will vote accordingly.
Are people selling coffee actually net economic contributors when all costs have been taken into account.
I don't, I mean I can't get my head round this. There's never been many near where I've lived mainly because people don't like to buy shite overpriced coffee.
I'm a remainer and I don't see the point of this. Its not as essential job. Is this some sort of London thing ?
The closest is Labour in 1960-1961-1963, though that last one was down to a death, so not quite the same.
I think Labour could win the West Mids but lose Tees Valley, the latter is much more rural - I'd expect the swing there to be larger.
The Tories won that BE in Middlesbrough the other day did they not ?
I truly think the core Labour places will remain rock solid - there is just nowhere for non Corbynistas to go in such places, and push comes to shove they'll go for Labour rather than risk an alternative, especially as a local labour candidate may not be a Corbynista. Even at the lowest ends of the scale Liverpool is safe, and Greater Manchester surely should be, though not as safe.
All right minded staunch brits drink tea.
Con 44 (+2) Lab 23 (-2) Lib Dems 12 (+1) UKIP 10 (-1)
The Liberal Democrats have climbed back to 12 per cent, their equal best level of public support this parliament, which they matched once before in December.
Not yet.
* that is at least what my twitter feed says.
I talked to a pollster last week, and I mentioned the fact I tipped Labour to poll below 20% at the next general election, he told me I might as well start spending my winnings already.
Plus I hear his name alone is worth 20 points. I forget who it was worth 20 points to, but that's probably not important.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/bagehot/2017/02/go-north
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/850340274329006080
https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/850342037849329665
But I hear Manchester is nice.
NEW THREAD
I'd rather back Chelsea to win this season's Premier League title at the same 1/6 odds and see my winnings paid in 4 weeks' time rather than having to wait 8 months to see Bercow continue as Speaker into 2018.