politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If you fancy a 16% return in just over eight months, this migh
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If you fancy a 16% return in just over eight months, this might be the bet for you
William Hill have a market up on whether John Bercow will be Speaker until 2018. Ordinarily I’m not in favour of backing 1/6 shots, but given that the much hyped attempt by Tory MP James Dudderidge to topple Speaker Bercow turned out to be a Spursy* as only five MPs sign motion of no confidence in John Bercow.
Comments
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surbiton said:
If you look at the map, the spread is the same as in most Turkish elections. You are right, both Istanbul and Ankara voted No. But the heartland voted Yes even more strongly as the Turkish nationalists [ MHP ] also supported Yes.RoyalBlue said:
Istanbul has grown vastly since the 1970s. The population is now much more Anatolian, and hence the AK party does better than in the past.surbiton said:
The vote is exactly the same as it would have been 50 years ago or even 60. The AK party's predecessor, the Justice Party and it's predecessor, the Democrat Party also got their votes from the Anatolian heartland and provincial towns. Only under Erdogan that they began to win in Istanbut and Ankara. I understand today, "Evet" may have lost in Ankara and Istanbul.nunu said:
The turkish heartland is rejecting the coastal elite......RoyalBlue said:
Democratic? To some extent. The secular elite are now paying the price for stamping on the culture and traditions of Anatolia. The heartland would tolerate it from Ataturk, but not the self-seeking elites who followed.SeanT said:
Yes. Kemal Ataturk's Turkey was, for all its flaws, a good thing. Secular, pro-Western, democratic.RoyalBlue said:
I don't see how No can win.SeanT said:it really is going to be 52/48
https://twitter.com/aa_balkans/status/853640384307752961
Turkish Republic, 1923-2017. RIP.
Now this. Sad.
Losing there today will irritate Erdogan immensely.
I presume some of the "liberal" AK party supporters voted No.
If you go back to most Turkish elections in the past 60 years [ except when predecessor parties of AK were banned by the Military ], the result spread would be very similar.0 -
This header Mr TSE is rather a large trolling of yours truly.0
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Seems sound. Bercow has enemies, but they moved way too soon.0
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Bit ironic a Spursy going into the dictionary the year they win the Premiership. Chelsea showed a chronic lack of belief today and are there for the taking for a Spurs team on fire.0
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Still too far in front, probably. Spurs are on a great run, but have to maintain that, dropping next to no points, for another six games, unless Chelsea truly mess up, which while they played poorly today seems unlikely, that both will occur.DavidL said:Bit ironic a Spursy going into the dictionary the year they win the Premiership. Chelsea showed a chronic lack of belief today and are there for the taking for a Spurs team on fire.
Unlikw Bercow's enemies, Spurs left it too late.0 -
Spurs have only been in contention for a major trophy twice in my lifetime, one of those times is now & they aren't even favs to win it! So how are they serial bottlers?
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Yes, kind of sucks, but there are knock on effects to taking such an action.nielh said:
She is a British national by birth rather than naturalisation, which makes it different from other cases reported recently.kle4 said:
Attractive lady.calum said:
Seem to recall there were suggestions of this a few years back, and the response was basically 'It's complicated'.
If her citizenship is revoked then it sets a precedent whereby we simply revoke the citizenship of anyone who commits a crime, like the medieval punishment of banishment.
She hasn't committed a crime and hasn't been proven guilty of anything, other than occasionally defending the Assad regime in the media, which is hardly even a crime, indeed Assad has his supporters on this forum.
In my view people shouldn't get their nationality revoked, because otherwise it makes nationality a meaningless concept. By all means the government could make it harder to obtain British citizenship, or they could even prevent people from having dual nationality status (ie if you are becoming british, you have to revoke your yemeni/ sudanese/ syrian/ afghan/ iraqi nationality). But you cant just turn the whole thing in to something that is temporary and can be removed at the whim of politicians.0 -
Collapsing at first sign of pressure does not necessarily mean at the pressure of potentially winning the title.isam said:Spurs have only been in contention for a major trophy twice in my lifetime, one of those times is now & they aren't even favs to win it! So how are they serial bottlers?
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When I hear Spursy I associate it with what Roy Keane said in his book - that you didn't really need a tactical team talk (which he hated). Spurs would play some pretty football but would be fairly easy to beat in 90 minutes.isam said:Spurs have only been in contention for a major trophy twice in my lifetime, one of those times is now & they aren't even favs to win it! So how are they serial bottlers?
Unfortunately, I can now imagine managers walking into their changing room and saying "lads, it's Arsenal."0 -
That does look like a weird bet.
Speaking of value, my post-race ramble is up here. It has two exciting graphs, and many words:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/04/bahrain-post-race-analysis-2017.html0 -
@Morris_Dancer - I must take issue with your opening line "the race was exciting from start to finish."
Was it? After the safety car they all spread out and the result never looked in doubt. If you want excitement from start to finish I highly recommend watching the Indianapolis 500.0 -
Mr. 86, Hamilton could've won today. After a late retirement (forget who, maybe Magnussen) a safety car could've emerged. Without the penalty, Hamilton and Vettel would've been very close. Even so, he was gaining substantial lap time. At the restart, Bottas came within a whisker of passing Vettel. It was unclear whether Hamilton would pit again. Verstappen was going very well until his brakes went.
I certainly wasn't relaxed about my bet, and there were many incidents from start to finish.0 -
Thanks very much for the tip on Vettel. Gratefully banked.Morris_Dancer said:That does look like a weird bet.
Speaking of value, my post-race ramble is up here. It has two exciting graphs, and many words:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/04/bahrain-post-race-analysis-2017.html0 -
Mr. Barnesian, np. I was quite surprised he started so well. Ferrari's strategy calls this year have been very good (they were unlucky with the safety car last time, if memory serves).0
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Look on the bright side, if Spurs win the title this season, then this thread is going to be my Sion Simon momentScrapheap_as_was said:This header Mr TSE is rather a large trolling of yours truly.
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So two polls that past 24hrs, are the Tories leading by 9 or 21% ?0
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Congratulations on your bet. It seemed to me that Vettel had the race in control once in front. Had Hamilton not played silly buggers in the pit stop then he might have had a chance.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. 86, Hamilton could've won today. After a late retirement (forget who, maybe Magnussen) a safety car could've emerged. Without the penalty, Hamilton and Vettel would've been very close. Even so, he was gaining substantial lap time. At the restart, Bottas came within a whisker of passing Vettel. It was unclear whether Hamilton would pit again. Verstappen was going very well until his brakes went.
I certainly wasn't relaxed about my bet, and there were many incidents from start to finish.
The good/bad thing with Indy 500 is that it's all about being in the right place at the right time. It's all about staying out of trouble and hoping you pit just before a caution which can make it a bit of a lottery. But the last 30 laps are usually box office.0 -
Probably neither, although number cruncher tried answering the same question.FrancisUrquhart said:So two polls that past 24hrs, are the Tories leading by 9 or 21% ?
https://www.ncpolitics.uk/2017/04/is-the-conservative-lead-21-points-or-9-points.html/
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Mr. 86, given Alonso's luck, he'll be ahead on the final lap and end up decapitated by a low-flying flamingo.
Thanks. Wasn't quite as tense as Spain 2016, but still a bit.
Fortnight until Russia, alas. Whilst not the best circuit, might still be scope for a nice race and some good betting.0 -
I'm pretty sure if I'd had money on Vettel, I'd have found it thrilling throughout...tlg86 said:@Morris_Dancer - I must take issue with your opening line "the race was exciting from start to finish."
Was it? After the safety car they all spread out and the result never looked in doubt. If you want excitement from start to finish I highly recommend watching the Indianapolis 500.
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Yeah the tables have turned alrighttlg86 said:
When I hear Spursy I associate it with what Roy Keane said in his book - that you didn't really need a tactical team talk (which he hated). Spurs would play some pretty football but would be fairly easy to beat in 90 minutes.isam said:Spurs have only been in contention for a major trophy twice in my lifetime, one of those times is now & they aren't even favs to win it! So how are they serial bottlers?
Unfortunately, I can now imagine managers walking into their changing room and saying "lads, it's Arsenal."0 -
I get the difficulty over the Easter hols, but it does make pollsters look pretty ridiculous when you are getting a giant difference and the direction of travel being polar opposite.kle4 said:
Probably neither, although number cruncher tried answering the same question.FrancisUrquhart said:So two polls that past 24hrs, are the Tories leading by 9 or 21% ?
https://www.ncpolitics.uk/2017/04/is-the-conservative-lead-21-points-or-9-points.html/
When the robots have taken over, at least the first issue won't be a problem as they don't take holidays...0 -
FT: A Bad Brexit Deal is worse than none at all
https://www.ft.com/content/25c1e244-2291-11e7-a34a-538b4cb30025
FT: The EU needs to avoid a multi-speed Europe
https://www.ft.com/content/e0051162-1ee0-11e7-b7d3-163f5a7f229c
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11% return on Andy Burnham in Greater Manchester Mayoral looks a good and quicker payout still.0
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Mr. B, swings and roundabouts. My bets in China didn't thrill me...
Anyway, I must be off.0 -
Sounds like from those titles neither the EU nor the UK governments will be fans of the FT.chestnut said:FT: A Bad Brexit Deal is worse than none at all
https://www.ft.com/content/25c1e244-2291-11e7-a34a-538b4cb30025
FT: The EU needs to avoid a multi-speed Europe
https://www.ft.com/content/e0051162-1ee0-11e7-b7d3-163f5a7f229c0 -
What about Robonukah?FrancisUrquhart said:
I get the difficulty over the Easter hols, but it does make pollsters look pretty ridiculous when you are getting a giant difference and the direction of travel being polar opposite.kle4 said:
Probably neither, although number cruncher tried answering the same question.FrancisUrquhart said:So two polls that past 24hrs, are the Tories leading by 9 or 21% ?
https://www.ncpolitics.uk/2017/04/is-the-conservative-lead-21-points-or-9-points.html/
When the robots have taken over, at least the first issue won't be a problem as they don't take holidays...0 -
No!FrancisUrquhart said:So two polls that past 24hrs, are the Tories leading by 9 or 21% ?
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At least elections will be counted instantly...kle4 said:
What about Robonukah?FrancisUrquhart said:
I get the difficulty over the Easter hols, but it does make pollsters look pretty ridiculous when you are getting a giant difference and the direction of travel being polar opposite.kle4 said:
Probably neither, although number cruncher tried answering the same question.FrancisUrquhart said:So two polls that past 24hrs, are the Tories leading by 9 or 21% ?
https://www.ncpolitics.uk/2017/04/is-the-conservative-lead-21-points-or-9-points.html/
When the robots have taken over, at least the first issue won't be a problem as they don't take holidays...
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Did Erdogan graduate from the Mugabe School of Leadership?nunu said:0 -
Indeed! On the same basis why should we trust polls conducted in the holiday months of July and August?FrancisUrquhart said:
I get the difficulty over the Easter hols, but it does make pollsters look pretty ridiculous when you are getting a giant difference and the direction of travel being polar opposite.kle4 said:
Probably neither, although number cruncher tried answering the same question.FrancisUrquhart said:So two polls that past 24hrs, are the Tories leading by 9 or 21% ?
https://www.ncpolitics.uk/2017/04/is-the-conservative-lead-21-points-or-9-points.html/
When the robots have taken over, at least the first issue won't be a problem as they don't take holidays...0 -
Holidays are more spread out over that period.justin124 said:
Indeed! On the same basis why should we trust polls conducted in the holiday months of July and August?FrancisUrquhart said:
I get the difficulty over the Easter hols, but it does make pollsters look pretty ridiculous when you are getting a giant difference and the direction of travel being polar opposite.kle4 said:
Probably neither, although number cruncher tried answering the same question.FrancisUrquhart said:So two polls that past 24hrs, are the Tories leading by 9 or 21% ?
https://www.ncpolitics.uk/2017/04/is-the-conservative-lead-21-points-or-9-points.html/
When the robots have taken over, at least the first issue won't be a problem as they don't take holidays...0 -
Maybe so - but Easter is hardly like Xmas. How many people really travel far at this time of the year?RobD said:
People's holidays are more spread out over that period.justin124 said:
Indeed! On the same basis why should we trust polls conducted in the holiday months of July and August?FrancisUrquhart said:
I get the difficulty over the Easter hols, but it does make pollsters look pretty ridiculous when you are getting a giant difference and the direction of travel being polar opposite.kle4 said:
Probably neither, although number cruncher tried answering the same question.FrancisUrquhart said:So two polls that past 24hrs, are the Tories leading by 9 or 21% ?
https://www.ncpolitics.uk/2017/04/is-the-conservative-lead-21-points-or-9-points.html/
When the robots have taken over, at least the first issue won't be a problem as they don't take holidays...0 -
Quite a few, judging by the traffic!justin124 said:
Maybe so - but Easter is hardly like Xmas. How many people really travel far at this time of the year?RobD said:
People's holidays are more spread out over that period.justin124 said:
Indeed! On the same basis why should we trust polls conducted in the holiday months of July and August?FrancisUrquhart said:
I get the difficulty over the Easter hols, but it does make pollsters look pretty ridiculous when you are getting a giant difference and the direction of travel being polar opposite.kle4 said:
Probably neither, although number cruncher tried answering the same question.FrancisUrquhart said:So two polls that past 24hrs, are the Tories leading by 9 or 21% ?
https://www.ncpolitics.uk/2017/04/is-the-conservative-lead-21-points-or-9-points.html/
When the robots have taken over, at least the first issue won't be a problem as they don't take holidays...0 -
But probably not beyond the weekend itself.RobD said:
Quite a few, judging by the traffic!justin124 said:
Maybe so - but Easter is hardly like Xmas. How many people really travel far at this time of the year?RobD said:
People's holidays are more spread out over that period.justin124 said:
Indeed! On the same basis why should we trust polls conducted in the holiday months of July and August?FrancisUrquhart said:
I get the difficulty over the Easter hols, but it does make pollsters look pretty ridiculous when you are getting a giant difference and the direction of travel being polar opposite.kle4 said:
Probably neither, although number cruncher tried answering the same question.FrancisUrquhart said:So two polls that past 24hrs, are the Tories leading by 9 or 21% ?
https://www.ncpolitics.uk/2017/04/is-the-conservative-lead-21-points-or-9-points.html/
When the robots have taken over, at least the first issue won't be a problem as they don't take holidays...0 -
Isn't it supposed to be one of the busiest weekends on the roads?justin124 said:
But probably not beyond the weekend itself.RobD said:
Quite a few, judging by the traffic!justin124 said:
Maybe so - but Easter is hardly like Xmas. How many people really travel far at this time of the year?RobD said:
People's holidays are more spread out over that period.justin124 said:
Indeed! On the same basis why should we trust polls conducted in the holiday months of July and August?FrancisUrquhart said:
I get the difficulty over the Easter hols, but it does make pollsters look pretty ridiculous when you are getting a giant difference and the direction of travel being polar opposite.kle4 said:
Probably neither, although number cruncher tried answering the same question.FrancisUrquhart said:So two polls that past 24hrs, are the Tories leading by 9 or 21% ?
https://www.ncpolitics.uk/2017/04/is-the-conservative-lead-21-points-or-9-points.html/
When the robots have taken over, at least the first issue won't be a problem as they don't take holidays...
e.g.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/apr/13/easter-getaway-busy-roads-and-mild-weather-forecast
Traffic experts predicted a quieter Easter than last year, but roads were still expected to be considerably busier than usual. Traffic is likely to peak on Thursday night and after lunchtime on Monday.0 -
No problem - I'm pleased for you, and didn't actually lose on the race myself... and am pondering some interesting (to me, at least) trading bets which I may post tomorrow,Morris_Dancer said:Mr. B, swings and roundabouts. My bets in China didn't thrill me...
Anyway, I must be off.
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I'm usually on the 16:30 out of Waterloo. I can assure you it's been like the Mary Celeste the last two weeks.justin124 said:
But probably not beyond the weekend itself.RobD said:
Quite a few, judging by the traffic!justin124 said:
Maybe so - but Easter is hardly like Xmas. How many people really travel far at this time of the year?RobD said:
People's holidays are more spread out over that period.justin124 said:
Indeed! On the same basis why should we trust polls conducted in the holiday months of July and August?FrancisUrquhart said:
I get the difficulty over the Easter hols, but it does make pollsters look pretty ridiculous when you are getting a giant difference and the direction of travel being polar opposite.kle4 said:
Probably neither, although number cruncher tried answering the same question.FrancisUrquhart said:So two polls that past 24hrs, are the Tories leading by 9 or 21% ?
https://www.ncpolitics.uk/2017/04/is-the-conservative-lead-21-points-or-9-points.html/
When the robots have taken over, at least the first issue won't be a problem as they don't take holidays...0 -
I am on Rotheram in liverpool at 1-10.partypoliticalorphan said:11% return on Andy Burnham in Greater Manchester Mayoral looks a good and quicker payout still.
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FrancisUrquhart said:
Did Erdogan graduate from the Mugabe School of Leadership?nunu said:
At least in this country when we have a referendum the result is clear cut, no one argues about, or moans, or tries to go to Court to get it overturned, or asks for it to be re-run, or says that it was won on the back of lies, or anything like that.
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Didn't Bercow say he'd serve nine years? If so, TSE will land his bet.0
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Worst possible result in Turkey it seems.0
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Evening all
I didn't get the chance to comment on the last thread as I was enjoying Easter Day with the clan Stodge (excellent lunch by the way).
Defining political identity solely on the basis of how one voted on 23/6/16 is foolish in extremis. There are LEAVE and REMAIN supporters in the Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat and Green parties.
The ability of each party to hold these seemingly divergent positions together is perhaps more reflective of the notion it's not the defining issue some think.
To assume therefore the only source of potential support for the LDs is among REMAIN voters is also folly. It is tradition the first port of call for the disaffected Conservative isn't Labour but the Liberal Democrats. Though A50 dominates the political conversation, the day-to-day world of governance goes on and the truth is it's not the big things but a cumulation of the little things which drag down Governments.
The huge advantage the incumbent Government has is the incumbent Opposition but that's a double edge sword in some ways. The total lack of a credible alternative (or danger) makes protesting easier as there is no consequence so the possibility of disaffected Conservatives voting LD in local contests is stronger even though most (if not all) will return to the blue camp for the GE.
The real electoral danger for a Government comes when its supporters move directly to the Opposition - that won't happen while Corbyn is in charge obviously. That doesn't close down avenues of protest by any means but provides the LDs with a chance to pick up both disaffected Conservative and Labour supporters.
The paradox for the Party, as in the 1980s, is that electoral strength in local contests between elections is a chimera when it comes to the GE. Losing the Conservative Council to NOC or LD control is one thing but for many electors, the only vote that matters is the GE and the Conservatives remain in a dominant position for now.0 -
Attorney general Jeremy Wright QC is attempting to block Tony Blair being prosecuted over the Iraq war.
The private prosecution seeks the trial of former prime minister Tony Blair, the foreign secretary Jack Straw, and Lord Goldsmith, the attorney general at the time.
However the current attorney general claims the case - based on the damning findings of last year's Chilcot report - is 'hopeless' because it seeks their conviction for the crime of 'aggression' - a crime which does not exist in British law.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4416852/Attorney-General-court-block-Tony-Blair-prosecution.html0 -
If he's right then it sounds like a block would indeed be sensible.FrancisUrquhart said:Attorney general Jeremy Wright QC is attempting to block Tony Blair being prosecuted over the Iraq war.
The private prosecution seeks the trial of former prime minister Tony Blair, the foreign secretary Jack Straw, and Lord Goldsmith, the attorney general at the time.
However the current attorney general claims the case - based on the damning findings of last year's Chilcot report - is 'hopeless' because it seeks their conviction for the crime of 'aggression' - a crime which does not exist in British law.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4416852/Attorney-General-court-block-Tony-Blair-prosecution.html
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Good evening, my fellow PB Monkeys!
Spent the day at Monkey World in Dorset 0 -
If confirmed, the "Yes" vote could also see Mr Erdogan remain in office until 2029.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39612562
Dictatorship...0 -
Why stop then, he'd only be 75?FrancisUrquhart said:If confirmed, the "Yes" vote could also see Mr Erdogan remain in office until 2029.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-396125620 -
"With more than 99% of ballots counted, "Yes" was on 51.36% and "No" on 48.64%."
Eerily familiar looking figures.0 -
Olympique Lyonnais have had quite a few days. After the crowd trouble before their Europa League Quarter Final tie with Besiktas, Lyon players were attacked by Bastia fans before their game in Corsica this afternoon (apparently there is bad blood between the teams - but the Corsicans seem to have bad blood with everyone). We are very lucky in this country that the worst behaviour we have is Arsenal fans not giving the ball back to their own players!0
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By then, I am sure he will find a way to extend it if he chooses.kle4 said:
Why stop then, he'd only be 75?FrancisUrquhart said:If confirmed, the "Yes" vote could also see Mr Erdogan remain in office until 2029.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-396125620 -
You sound like a sore loser, Mr Hopkins.MarkHopkins said:At least in this country when we have a referendum the result is clear cut, no one argues about, or moans, or tries to go to Court to get it overturned, or asks for it to be re-run, or says that it was won on the back of lies, or anything like that.
(Leavers = Losers)0 -
Thanks for the clarification at the end. There I was going around thinking Leave had actually won the referendum.PClipp said:
You sound like a sore loser, Mr Hopkins.MarkHopkins said:At least in this country when we have a referendum the result is clear cut, no one argues about, or moans, or tries to go to Court to get it overturned, or asks for it to be re-run, or says that it was won on the back of lies, or anything like that.
(Leavers = Losers)0 -
LEAVE 51.9%Ishmael_Z said:"With more than 99% of ballots counted, "Yes" was on 51.36% and "No" on 48.64%."
Eerily familiar looking figures.
REMAIN 48.1%-1 -
Remain Winning Here, eh Mr Clipp?PClipp said:
You sound like a sore loser, Mr Hopkins.MarkHopkins said:At least in this country when we have a referendum the result is clear cut, no one argues about, or moans, or tries to go to Court to get it overturned, or asks for it to be re-run, or says that it was won on the back of lies, or anything like that.
(Leavers = Losers)0 -
Not quite, Mr Clipp!PClipp said:
You sound like a sore loser, Mr Hopkins.MarkHopkins said:At least in this country when we have a referendum the result is clear cut, no one argues about, or moans, or tries to go to Court to get it overturned, or asks for it to be re-run, or says that it was won on the back of lies, or anything like that.
(Leavers = Losers)
LEAVE 52%
REMAIN 48%
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Turkey's Erdogan wins crucial vote to expand presidential powers but two main opposition parties challenge results0
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Provided he wins two elections.FrancisUrquhart said:If confirmed, the "Yes" vote could also see Mr Erdogan remain in office until 2029.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39612562
Dictatorship...0 -
Free and Fair ones I am sure....surbiton said:
Provided he wins two elections.FrancisUrquhart said:If confirmed, the "Yes" vote could also see Mr Erdogan remain in office until 2029.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39612562
Dictatorship...0 -
War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength. Leave is Remain.Mortimer said:
Remain Winning Here, eh Mr Clipp?PClipp said:
You sound like a sore loser, Mr Hopkins.MarkHopkins said:At least in this country when we have a referendum the result is clear cut, no one argues about, or moans, or tries to go to Court to get it overturned, or asks for it to be re-run, or says that it was won on the back of lies, or anything like that.
(Leavers = Losers)0 -
Turkey has had many elections. I have not heard of any funny business except:FrancisUrquhart said:
Free and Fair ones I am sure....surbiton said:
Provided he wins two elections.FrancisUrquhart said:If confirmed, the "Yes" vote could also see Mr Erdogan remain in office until 2029.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39612562
Dictatorship...
when the military hanged the Prime Minister
and, one of the AK Party's predecessor was banned.0 -
No funny business..."accept unstamped ballot papers as valid"..no absolutely no funny business....surbiton said:
Turkey has had many elections. I have not heard of any funny business except:FrancisUrquhart said:
Free and Fair ones I am sure....surbiton said:
Provided he wins two elections.FrancisUrquhart said:If confirmed, the "Yes" vote could also see Mr Erdogan remain in office until 2029.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39612562
Dictatorship...
when the military hanged the Prime Minister
and, one of the AK Party's predecessor was banned.0 -
The powers which Erdogan seeks are truly terrible. He will also seek the death penalty soon.FrancisUrquhart said:Turkey's Erdogan wins crucial vote to expand presidential powers but two main opposition parties challenge results
But the 52 / 48 divide has been with Turkey for decades. The European west and the south against the rest of Turkey. Kurds vote against for different reasons.0 -
You have a one track mind. I was referring to "elections" and not to "referendums".FrancisUrquhart said:
No funny business..."accept unstamped ballot papers as valid"..no absolutely no funny business....surbiton said:
Turkey has had many elections. I have not heard of any funny business except:FrancisUrquhart said:
Free and Fair ones I am sure....surbiton said:
Provided he wins two elections.FrancisUrquhart said:If confirmed, the "Yes" vote could also see Mr Erdogan remain in office until 2029.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39612562
Dictatorship...
when the military hanged the Prime Minister
and, one of the AK Party's predecessor was banned.0 -
No, just stating that things have got very bad in Turkey, where a guy is becoming more and more what appears to be a brutal dictator. 100,000s sacked from their jobs, 1000s locked up, now dodgy voting to give him more power, looks like the death penalty will be reinstated, etc etc etc.surbiton said:
You have a one track mind. I was referring to elections and not to referendums.FrancisUrquhart said:
No funny business..."accept unstamped ballot papers as valid"..no absolutely no funny business....surbiton said:
Turkey has had many elections. I have not heard of any funny business except:FrancisUrquhart said:
Free and Fair ones I am sure....surbiton said:
Provided he wins two elections.FrancisUrquhart said:If confirmed, the "Yes" vote could also see Mr Erdogan remain in office until 2029.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39612562
Dictatorship...
when the military hanged the Prime Minister
and, one of the AK Party's predecessor was banned.
None of that bodes well for free and fair elections should it look like his power is slipping away over the course of the next 10+ years.0 -
I haven't been following the details of this referendum. Can anyone tell me what reasons were put forward in favour of expanding the President's powers, please? It doesn't sound the sort of thing that would find favour here.FrancisUrquhart said:
No, just stating that things have got very bad in Turkey, where a guy is becoming more and more what appears to be a brutal dictator. 100,000s sacked from their jobs, 1000s locked up, now dodgy voting to give him more power, looks like the death penalty will be reinstated, etc etc etc.surbiton said:
You have a one track mind. I was referring to elections and not to referendums.FrancisUrquhart said:
No funny business..."accept unstamped ballot papers as valid"..no absolutely no funny business....surbiton said:
Turkey has had many elections. I have not heard of any funny business except:FrancisUrquhart said:
Free and Fair ones I am sure....surbiton said:
Provided he wins two elections.FrancisUrquhart said:If confirmed, the "Yes" vote could also see Mr Erdogan remain in office until 2029.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39612562
Dictatorship...
when the military hanged the Prime Minister
and, one of the AK Party's predecessor was banned.
None of that bodes well for free and fair elections should it look like his power is slipping away over the course of the next 10+ years.
Good evening, everyone.
Edited for spelling.0 -
Turkish Lira up 2% against the Dollar. A contrast to the Brexit market reaction. 0
-
Supporters see the new system as an essential modernisation step for Turkey that will remove the risk of the political chaos that blighted the 1990s and is blamed for the 2000-2001 financial crisis.AnneJGP said:
I haven't been following the details of this referendum. Can anyone tell me what reasons were put forward in favour of expanding the President's powers, please? It doesn't sound the sort of thing that would find favour here.FrancisUrquhart said:
No, just stating that things have got very bad in Turkey, where a guy is becoming more and more what appears to be a brutal dictator. 100,000s sacked from their jobs, 1000s locked up, now dodgy voting to give him more power, looks like the death penalty will be reinstated, etc etc etc.surbiton said:
You have a one track mind. I was referring to elections and not to referendums.FrancisUrquhart said:
No funny business..."accept unstamped ballot papers as valid"..no absolutely no funny business....surbiton said:
Turkey has had many elections. I have not heard of any funny business except:FrancisUrquhart said:
Free and Fair ones I am sure....surbiton said:
Provided he wins two elections.FrancisUrquhart said:If confirmed, the "Yes" vote could also see Mr Erdogan remain in office until 2029.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39612562
Dictatorship...
when the military hanged the Prime Minister
and, one of the AK Party's predecessor was banned.
None of that bodes well for free and fair elections should it look like his power is slipping away over the course of the next 10+ years.
Good evening, everyone.
Edited for spelling.
Proponents of the reform argue that it would end the current 'two-headed system' in which both the president and parliament are directly elected, a situation they argue could lead to deadlock0 -
Many thanks.FrancisUrquhart said:
Supporters see the new system as an essential modernisation step for Turkey that will remove the risk of the political chaos that blighted the 1990s and is blamed for the 2000-2001 financial crisis.AnneJGP said:
I haven't been following the details of this referendum. Can anyone tell me what reasons were put forward in favour of expanding the President's powers, please? It doesn't sound the sort of thing that would find favour here.FrancisUrquhart said:
No, just stating that things have got very bad in Turkey, where a guy is becoming more and more what appears to be a brutal dictator. 100,000s sacked from their jobs, 1000s locked up, now dodgy voting to give him more power, looks like the death penalty will be reinstated, etc etc etc.surbiton said:
You have a one track mind. I was referring to elections and not to referendums.FrancisUrquhart said:
No funny business..."accept unstamped ballot papers as valid"..no absolutely no funny business....surbiton said:
Turkey has had many elections. I have not heard of any funny business except:FrancisUrquhart said:
Free and Fair ones I am sure....surbiton said:
Provided he wins two elections.FrancisUrquhart said:If confirmed, the "Yes" vote could also see Mr Erdogan remain in office until 2029.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39612562
Dictatorship...
when the military hanged the Prime Minister
and, one of the AK Party's predecessor was banned.
None of that bodes well for free and fair elections should it look like his power is slipping away over the course of the next 10+ years.
Good evening, everyone.
Edited for spelling.0 -
williamglenn said:
Turkish Lira up 2% against the Dollar. A contrast to the Brexit market reaction.
Fascist bankers expect to make money.williamglenn said:Turkish Lira up 2% against the Dollar. A contrast to the Brexit market reaction.
0 -
Wasn't this result expected, and therefore priced in?williamglenn said:Turkish Lira up 2% against the Dollar. A contrast to the Brexit market reaction.
0 -
Looks like the BBC saw the praise for the NYT piece which SeanT was orgasmic about and resurrected their similar style magazine pieces.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-sh/Erdogans_Turkey0 -
Yeah, the guy who the military plotters were looking to kill. He just did not happen to be where they thought he was.FrancisUrquhart said:
No, just stating that things have got very bad in Turkey, where a guy is becoming more and more what appears to be a brutal dictator. 100,000s sacked from their jobs, 1000s locked up, now dodgy voting to give him more power, looks like the death penalty will be reinstated, etc etc etc.surbiton said:
You have a one track mind. I was referring to elections and not to referendums.FrancisUrquhart said:
No funny business..."accept unstamped ballot papers as valid"..no absolutely no funny business....surbiton said:
Turkey has had many elections. I have not heard of any funny business except:FrancisUrquhart said:
Free and Fair ones I am sure....surbiton said:
Provided he wins two elections.FrancisUrquhart said:If confirmed, the "Yes" vote could also see Mr Erdogan remain in office until 2029.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39612562
Dictatorship...
when the military hanged the Prime Minister
and, one of the AK Party's predecessor was banned.
None of that bodes well for free and fair elections should it look like his power is slipping away over the course of the next 10+ years.
The Turkish Military Generals are still western , secular minded. Except, they cannot now decide who will be President or Prime Minister as they used to.
The Turkish Military are still Ataturk's children.0 -
IIRC Erdogan began his move towards dictatorship when the moderate Kurdish parties won more seats and Erdogan's party lost its majority. The later attempted coup was an excuse for him to eliminate his opposition.surbiton said:
The powers which Erdogan seeks are truly terrible. He will also seek the death penalty soon.FrancisUrquhart said:Turkey's Erdogan wins crucial vote to expand presidential powers but two main opposition parties challenge results
But the 52 / 48 divide has been with Turkey for decades. The European west and the south against the rest of Turkey. Kurds vote against for different reasons.0 -
Are you secular minded, surbiton?surbiton said:
Yeah, the guy who the military plotters were looking to kill. He just did not happen to be where they thought he was.FrancisUrquhart said:
No, just stating that things have got very bad in Turkey, where a guy is becoming more and more what appears to be a brutal dictator. 100,000s sacked from their jobs, 1000s locked up, now dodgy voting to give him more power, looks like the death penalty will be reinstated, etc etc etc.surbiton said:
You have a one track mind. I was referring to elections and not to referendums.FrancisUrquhart said:
No funny business..."accept unstamped ballot papers as valid"..no absolutely no funny business....surbiton said:
Turkey has had many elections. I have not heard of any funny business except:FrancisUrquhart said:
Free and Fair ones I am sure....surbiton said:
Provided he wins two elections.FrancisUrquhart said:If confirmed, the "Yes" vote could also see Mr Erdogan remain in office until 2029.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39612562
Dictatorship...
when the military hanged the Prime Minister
and, one of the AK Party's predecessor was banned.
None of that bodes well for free and fair elections should it look like his power is slipping away over the course of the next 10+ years.
The Turkish Military Generals are still western , secular minded. Except, they cannot now decide who will be President or Prime Minister as they used to.
The Turkish Military are still Ataturk's children.0 -
I assume the guy who apologised for calling you mad, will now apologise for apologising for calling you mad.williamglenn said:Turkish Lira up 2% against the Dollar. A contrast to the Brexit market reaction.
0 -
The Russians accidentally used the same Referendum Outcome programme....Ishmael_Z said:"With more than 99% of ballots counted, "Yes" was on 51.36% and "No" on 48.64%."
Eerily familiar looking figures.0 -
Judgement is being withheld.Ishmael_Z said:
I assume the guy who apologised for calling you mad, will now apologise for apologising for calling you mad.williamglenn said:Turkish Lira up 2% against the Dollar. A contrast to the Brexit market reaction.
0 -
It was not accidental except his knowledge of foreign languages is not very good. He thought, in English, Leave meant Yes.MarqueeMark said:
The Russians accidentally used the same Referendum Outcome programme....Ishmael_Z said:"With more than 99% of ballots counted, "Yes" was on 51.36% and "No" on 48.64%."
Eerily familiar looking figures.0 -
Yes. I am an aethist.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Are you secular minded, surbiton?surbiton said:
Yeah, the guy who the military plotters were looking to kill. He just did not happen to be where they thought he was.FrancisUrquhart said:
No, just stating that things have got very bad in Turkey, where a guy is becoming more and more what appears to be a brutal dictator. 100,000s sacked from their jobs, 1000s locked up, now dodgy voting to give him more power, looks like the death penalty will be reinstated, etc etc etc.surbiton said:
You have a one track mind. I was referring to elections and not to referendums.FrancisUrquhart said:
No funny business..."accept unstamped ballot papers as valid"..no absolutely no funny business....surbiton said:
Turkey has had many elections. I have not heard of any funny business except:FrancisUrquhart said:
Free and Fair ones I am sure....surbiton said:
Provided he wins two elections.FrancisUrquhart said:If confirmed, the "Yes" vote could also see Mr Erdogan remain in office until 2029.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39612562
Dictatorship...
when the military hanged the Prime Minister
and, one of the AK Party's predecessor was banned.
None of that bodes well for free and fair elections should it look like his power is slipping away over the course of the next 10+ years.
The Turkish Military Generals are still western , secular minded. Except, they cannot now decide who will be President or Prime Minister as they used to.
The Turkish Military are still Ataturk's children.0 -
Maybe. But when you cheat death, do not be surprised he wants change.perdix said:
IIRC Erdogan began his move towards dictatorship when the moderate Kurdish parties won more seats and Erdogan's party lost its majority. The later attempted coup was an excuse for him to eliminate his opposition.surbiton said:
The powers which Erdogan seeks are truly terrible. He will also seek the death penalty soon.FrancisUrquhart said:Turkey's Erdogan wins crucial vote to expand presidential powers but two main opposition parties challenge results
But the 52 / 48 divide has been with Turkey for decades. The European west and the south against the rest of Turkey. Kurds vote against for different reasons.0 -
Removal of failed asylum seekers has collapsed to a record low - adding to concerns that Britain is failing to get a grip on its borders.
Latest figures show the number of unsuccessful refugees booted out of the country has plunged by two-thirds since 2010, when the Tories came to power.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4416972/Row-number-failed-asylum-seekers-removed.html
Mrs May...tough on illegal immigration, tough on the causes of illegal immigration....0 -
Goodnight. Sad night for Turkey. A friend of mine is distraught. But I have to say I expected this. To be fair, some urban AK Party supporters voted No, particularly in Istanbul and Ankara. But Erdogan got the ultra nationalist MHD votes, so got his majority.0
-
Mrs May...NOT tough on illegal immigration, NOT tough on the causes of illegal immigration....FrancisUrquhart said:Removal of failed asylum seekers has collapsed to a record low - adding to concerns that Britain is failing to get a grip on its borders.
Latest figures show the number of unsuccessful refugees booted out of the country has plunged by two-thirds since 2010, when the Tories came to power.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4416972/Row-number-failed-asylum-seekers-removed.html
Mrs May...tough on illegal immigration, tough on the causes of illegal immigration....
THe most incompetent Home Secretary in recent times.0 -
Excellent! Me too!surbiton said:
Yes. I am an aethist.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Are you secular minded, surbiton?surbiton said:
Yeah, the guy who the military plotters were looking to kill. He just did not happen to be where they thought he was.FrancisUrquhart said:
No, just stating that things have got very bad in Turkey, where a guy is becoming more and more what appears to be a brutal dictator. 100,000s sacked from their jobs, 1000s locked up, now dodgy voting to give him more power, looks like the death penalty will be reinstated, etc etc etc.surbiton said:
You have a one track mind. I was referring to elections and not to referendums.FrancisUrquhart said:
No funny business..."accept unstamped ballot papers as valid"..no absolutely no funny business....surbiton said:
Turkey has had many elections. I have not heard of any funny business except:FrancisUrquhart said:
Free and Fair ones I am sure....surbiton said:
Provided he wins two elections.FrancisUrquhart said:If confirmed, the "Yes" vote could also see Mr Erdogan remain in office until 2029.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39612562
Dictatorship...
when the military hanged the Prime Minister
and, one of the AK Party's predecessor was banned.
None of that bodes well for free and fair elections should it look like his power is slipping away over the course of the next 10+ years.
The Turkish Military Generals are still western , secular minded. Except, they cannot now decide who will be President or Prime Minister as they used to.
The Turkish Military are still Ataturk's children.0 -
In contrast to Brexit, Turkey is actually leaving Europe and placing itself firmly in the Middle East.williamglenn said:Turkish Lira up 2% against the Dollar. A contrast to the Brexit market reaction.
0 -
Simply a reaction to a more stable Turkey with a firm hand in the driving seat, Erdogan can now effectively abolish Parliament and the opposition and run Turkey as he wishes. Perhaps PM May could use it as an example of how to make a success of Brexit! Like Erdogan May is also far more popular in rural areas than she is in the big cities and Erdogan won 52% to 48% ie exactly the same margin as Leave won bywilliamglenn said:Turkish Lira up 2% against the Dollar. A contrast to the Brexit market reaction.
0 -
Jezza is doing it for her....HYUFD said:
Simply a reaction to a more stable Turkey with a firm hand in the driving seat, Erdogan can now effectively abolish Parliament and the opposition and run Turkey as he wishes. Perhaps PM May could use it as an example of how to make a success of Brexit!williamglenn said:Turkish Lira up 2% against the Dollar. A contrast to the Brexit market reaction.
0 -
Tonight's Homeland.
Epic sad face0 -
"Sorry Sir, I lost my kit."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2017/04/16/aaron-finch-dropped-ipl-match-losing-kit/
They should have made him play in his pants.0 -
Half a story.FrancisUrquhart said:Removal of failed asylum seekers has collapsed to a record low - adding to concerns that Britain is failing to get a grip on its borders.
Latest figures show the number of unsuccessful refugees booted out of the country has plunged by two-thirds since 2010, when the Tories came to power.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4416972/Row-number-failed-asylum-seekers-removed.html
Mrs May...tough on illegal immigration, tough on the causes of illegal immigration....
Asylum seeker numbers have dropped from over 80k a year back in 2002 to about a third of that now.
So the need for removals will fall, surely?0 -
Perhaps she should appoint him official leader of the opposition for lifeFrancisUrquhart said:
Jezza is doing it for her....HYUFD said:
Simply a reaction to a more stable Turkey with a firm hand in the driving seat, Erdogan can now effectively abolish Parliament and the opposition and run Turkey as he wishes. Perhaps PM May could use it as an example of how to make a success of Brexit!williamglenn said:Turkish Lira up 2% against the Dollar. A contrast to the Brexit market reaction.
0 -
0
-
Yes down thread....discussion of why two polls can return a massive difference. Tory lead of 9% vs 21%.brokenwheel said:No one mentioned this?
twitter.com/adampayne26/status/853727436210667521
Oh no wait, is that a new new poll?0 -
No, this is another one. Yougov, not Comres.0
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All those richbrokenwheel said:No, this is another one. Yougov, not Comres.
ToriesLefty Luvvies on their ski holidays...0 -
It's new. It's a Yougov to go with the Com Res.
Now that Labour are exclusively a party for well off Londoners I think we can safely assume they're all abroad on their aetheist easter hols.0 -
Corrected for you...chestnut said:It's new. It's a Yougov to go with the Com Res.
Now that Labour are exclusively a party for well off Londoners I think we can safely assume they're all abroad on theiraetheist easterSpringtival hols.
Those not abroad were probably all too busy on their non-religious egg hunts to answer the phone or emails.0 -
I do wonder if Nunu was right before; maybe the party social grade changes the polls have shown since the GE have altered the the ski holiday effect against Labour.0
