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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Polling Matters on the Lib Dem fightback – how high can their

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  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Hang on - Turkey will count as VALID papers without the required seal.........

  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Where France's Front National is on the rise https://mobile.twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/853626684767121408

    Many of Roger's friends and neighbours must be voting FN.
    Looks like he won't be inviting the neighbours around for dinner then this summer
    Perhaps privately, Roger shares their opinions, and he posts here as a left wing alter ego.
    I think Roger is completely genuine.

    Nobody, when composing an alter ego, would actually create a narcissistic, Roman Polanski-defending tampon advertiser.

    Or would they.... hmmm. Now you've got me wondering too.
  • Options
    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,721
    RobD said:

    Europe Elects‏
    @EuropeElects

    Numbers presented here are based on the results published by the Turkish authorities. We cannot confirm if rigged or not. #TurkeyReferendum

    That's a bit worrying.

    Has there been suggestions of that? Otherwise a bit cheeky of them to raise the spectre of vote rigging.
    Turkey Untold has published on twitter a video where the head of Catbasi village council, in the Mus retion, comes out of the voting cabin with five envelopes and then apparently proceeds to cast his ‘votes’.
    Turkey Untold raises serious concerns about about vote rigging in some Turkish villages.
    http://www.newsincyprus.com/news/69455/turkey-vote-rigging-allegations

    It's not the first time that the suggestion has been made:
    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/was-the-turkish-election-rigged-a6724226.html
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,995
    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    The LDs are now the only party committed to staying in the EU rather than just the single market so as they have that market all to themselves though as the article suggests they are unlikely to get more than 25% on that platform

    You forgot the SNP exist
    No I didn't, the SNP now back staying in the EEA effectively rather than the EU like Labour, partly as a third of SNP voters voted Leave
    rubbish, that is just fantasy unionist bollox
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Floater said:

    Hang on - Turkey will count as VALID papers without the required seal.........

    Sounds a bit like Al Franken winning Minnesota after the discovery of a car-boot full of ballots marked for the Democrats.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,995
    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    The LDs are now the only party committed to staying in the EU rather than just the single market so as they have that market all to themselves though as the article suggests they are unlikely to get more than 25% on that platform

    You forgot the SNP exist
    I thought they now wanted EFTA?
    Rob they want in EU, they are pragmatic and accept they may need to have a half way house for a short period. Unlike the Tories and Brexit they can face the realities of what is required.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    The LDs are now the only party committed to staying in the EU rather than just the single market so as they have that market all to themselves though as the article suggests they are unlikely to get more than 25% on that platform

    You forgot the SNP exist
    No I didn't, the SNP now back staying in the EEA effectively rather than the EU like Labour, partly as a third of SNP voters voted Leave
    rubbish, that is just fantasy unionist bollox
    No it isn't, the SNP and Sturgeon are pushing against 'Hard Brexit' and to keep Scotland in the single market, Sturgeon has basically stopped saying there should be no Brexit at all, her position is little different to Keith Starmer or Chuka Umunna's
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Congratulations to @Morris_Dancer for a winning F1 tip.

    I'm only typing that for the rarity value. It's not a sentence you'll see often :)
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,631
    GeoffM said:

    Congratulations to @Morris_Dancer for a winning F1 tip.

    I'm only typing that for the rarity value. It's not a sentence you'll see often :)

    Harsh !
    Pretty good call from MD - the price was certainly value. I have to say though, that tactically and operationally, Mercedes threw a race victory away, as they has the speed to win.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Jeremy Cliffe‏Verified account @JeremyCliffe 1h1 hour ago

    Celebrations already underway in Berlin. Convoy of cars honking horns and flying Turkish flag just swept up Reinhardtstraße."
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    GeoffM said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Where France's Front National is on the rise https://mobile.twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/853626684767121408

    Many of Roger's friends and neighbours must be voting FN.
    Looks like he won't be inviting the neighbours around for dinner then this summer
    Perhaps privately, Roger shares their opinions, and he posts here as a left wing alter ego.
    I think Roger is completely genuine.

    Nobody, when composing an alter ego, would actually create a narcissistic, Roman Polanski-defending tampon advertiser.

    Or would they.... hmmm. Now you've got me wondering too.
    Not quite as unlikely as a labour supporting Cheshire farmer who never left his pc to go out to work the land and had an Asian gentleman farmer as his closest neighbour.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,995
    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    The LDs are now the only party committed to staying in the EU rather than just the single market so as they have that market all to themselves though as the article suggests they are unlikely to get more than 25% on that platform

    You forgot the SNP exist
    No I didn't, the SNP now back staying in the EEA effectively rather than the EU like Labour, partly as a third of SNP voters voted Leave
    rubbish, that is just fantasy unionist bollox
    No it isn't, the SNP and Sturgeon are pushing against 'Hard Brexit' and to keep Scotland in the single market, Sturgeon has basically stopped saying there should be no Brexit at all, her position is little different to Keith Starmer or Chuka Umunna's
    Look we know you have no clue re the nuances of Scottish politics. Their position is clear , they want to stay in the EU but acept that they may have to be pragmatic and take a halfway house for a short period. It has been said clearly and often in Scotland but ignored by right wing London rags.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,631
    RoyalBlue said:

    SeanT said:
    I don't see how No can win.

    Turkish Republic, 1923-2017. RIP.
    And welcome to another Putin style presidency, by the looks of it.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited April 2017
    SeanT said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Jeremy Cliffe‏Verified account @JeremyCliffe 1h1 hour ago

    Celebrations already underway in Berlin. Convoy of cars honking horns and flying Turkish flag just swept up Reinhardtstraße."

    That must give Germans a lovely *wilkommmen* vibe
    I am bemused, what do all these ex-pat Turks in Germany see in a putin-esque wannabe dictator?
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    edited April 2017

    On topic - how high can The Libdems go ?
    What a lot of this misses is any grasp of just how badly Brexit could go wrong & just what is happening to Labour. Its not just Local contests, over the last year Labour Polling average has been on a steady slide, losing roughly 1% every 2 Months. The causes of the decline are well known but there is nothing anyone in Labour can do. Even the Nuclear option of a split is of the table because both Left & Right are divided over Brexit.
    Labour members are leaving at around 3,000 every week, largely unnoticed by The Media. Of course with nearly half a Million members that slow leak can drag on a long time with no obvious effect but it is damaging whats left of Labour morale.
    The Libdems cant yet challenge Labour for 2nd place In The Polls (on the ground is another matter) but wait a year or two & look again.

    Is Brexit the new Iraq for the Lib Dems?
    No. It is the next Betamax for the LibDems.
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    GeoffM said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Where France's Front National is on the rise https://mobile.twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/853626684767121408

    Many of Roger's friends and neighbours must be voting FN.
    Looks like he won't be inviting the neighbours around for dinner then this summer
    Perhaps privately, Roger shares their opinions, and he posts here as a left wing alter ego.
    I think Roger is completely genuine.

    Nobody, when composing an alter ego, would actually create a narcissistic, Roman Polanski-defending tampon advertiser.

    Or would they.... hmmm. Now you've got me wondering too.
    Not quite as unlikely as a labour supporting Cheshire farmer who never left his pc to go out to work the land and had an Asian gentleman farmer as his closest neighbour.
    I'm sure an international wine merchants was involved somewhere too?
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Jeremy Cliffe‏Verified account @JeremyCliffe 1h1 hour ago

    Celebrations already underway in Berlin. Convoy of cars honking horns and flying Turkish flag just swept up Reinhardtstraße."

    That must give Germans a lovely *wilkommmen* vibe
    I am bemused, what do all these ex-pat Turks in Germany see in a putin-esque wannabe dictator?
    Conservative Islam.
    Bodes well eh?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    The LDs are now the only party committed to staying in the EU rather than just the single market so as they have that market all to themselves though as the article suggests they are unlikely to get more than 25% on that platform

    You forgot the SNP exist
    No I didn't, the SNP now back staying in the EEA effectively rather than the EU like Labour, partly as a third of SNP voters voted Leave
    rubbish, that is just fantasy unionist bollox
    No it isn't, the SNP and Sturgeon are pushing against 'Hard Brexit' and to keep Scotland in the single market, Sturgeon has basically stopped saying there should be no Brexit at all, her position is little different to Keith Starmer or Chuka Umunna's
    Look we know you have no clue re the nuances of Scottish politics. Their position is clear , they want to stay in the EU but acept that they may have to be pragmatic and take a halfway house for a short period. It has been said clearly and often in Scotland but ignored by right wing London rags.
    So even you have admitted the SNP have now abandoned keeping Scotland in the EU to campaign simply to keep Scotland in the single market. Therefore you have confirmed my original point that the LDs are the only party still committed to staying in the EU
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    The LDs are now the only party committed to staying in the EU rather than just the single market so as they have that market all to themselves though as the article suggests they are unlikely to get more than 25% on that platform

    You forgot the SNP exist
    No I didn't, the SNP now back staying in the EEA effectively rather than the EU like Labour, partly as a third of SNP voters voted Leave
    rubbish, that is just fantasy unionist bollox
    No it isn't, the SNP and Sturgeon are pushing against 'Hard Brexit' and to keep Scotland in the single market, Sturgeon has basically stopped saying there should be no Brexit at all, her position is little different to Keith Starmer or Chuka Umunna's
    Look we know you have no clue re the nuances of Scottish politics. Their position is clear , they want to stay in the EU but acept that they may have to be pragmatic and take a halfway house for a short period. It has been said clearly and often in Scotland but ignored by right wing London rags.
    What is this EU "half-way house"? Is it like being a little bit pregnant?
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    GeoffM said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Where France's Front National is on the rise https://mobile.twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/853626684767121408

    Many of Roger's friends and neighbours must be voting FN.
    Looks like he won't be inviting the neighbours around for dinner then this summer
    Perhaps privately, Roger shares their opinions, and he posts here as a left wing alter ego.
    I think Roger is completely genuine.

    Nobody, when composing an alter ego, would actually create a narcissistic, Roman Polanski-defending tampon advertiser.

    Or would they.... hmmm. Now you've got me wondering too.
    Roger is clearly a Labour man.

    After all he detests and sneers at the working class.
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Floater said:

    GeoffM said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Where France's Front National is on the rise https://mobile.twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/853626684767121408

    Many of Roger's friends and neighbours must be voting FN.
    Looks like he won't be inviting the neighbours around for dinner then this summer
    Perhaps privately, Roger shares their opinions, and he posts here as a left wing alter ego.
    I think Roger is completely genuine.

    Nobody, when composing an alter ego, would actually create a narcissistic, Roman Polanski-defending tampon advertiser.

    Or would they.... hmmm. Now you've got me wondering too.
    Roger is clearly a Labour man.

    After all he detests and sneers at the working class.
    Oh, he seems to have a fixation on a certain small nation surrounded by enemies in the Middle East..........
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    The LDs are now the only party committed to staying in the EU rather than just the single market so as they have that market all to themselves though as the article suggests they are unlikely to get more than 25% on that platform

    You forgot the SNP exist
    No I didn't, the SNP now back staying in the EEA effectively rather than the EU like Labour, partly as a third of SNP voters voted Leave
    rubbish, that is just fantasy unionist bollox
    No it isn't, the SNP and Sturgeon are pushing against 'Hard Brexit' and to keep Scotland in the single market, Sturgeon has basically stopped saying there should be no Brexit at all, her position is little different to Keith Starmer or Chuka Umunna's
    Look we know you have no clue re the nuances of Scottish politics. Their position is clear , they want to stay in the EU but acept that they may have to be pragmatic and take a halfway house for a short period. It has been said clearly and often in Scotland but ignored by right wing London rags.
    What is this EU "half-way house"? Is it like being a little bit pregnant?
    In this example, it's closer to being just a half-beaten wife.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    SeanT said:

    Floater said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Jeremy Cliffe‏Verified account @JeremyCliffe 1h1 hour ago

    Celebrations already underway in Berlin. Convoy of cars honking horns and flying Turkish flag just swept up Reinhardtstraße."

    That must give Germans a lovely *wilkommmen* vibe
    I am bemused, what do all these ex-pat Turks in Germany see in a putin-esque wannabe dictator?
    Conservative Islam.
    Bodes well eh?
    Ataturk was right.
    I know little of Ataturk, but considering what was apparently in place before him, and the moderate (if occasionally coup happy) nation that he left behind, and what it seems to be becoming now, he seems to have been an incredible man.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,995

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    The LDs are now the only party committed to staying in the EU rather than just the single market so as they have that market all to themselves though as the article suggests they are unlikely to get more than 25% on that platform

    You forgot the SNP exist
    No I didn't, the SNP now back staying in the EEA effectively rather than the EU like Labour, partly as a third of SNP voters voted Leave
    rubbish, that is just fantasy unionist bollox
    No it isn't, the SNP and Sturgeon are pushing against 'Hard Brexit' and to keep Scotland in the single market, Sturgeon has basically stopped saying there should be no Brexit at all, her position is little different to Keith Starmer or Chuka Umunna's
    Look we know you have no clue re the nuances of Scottish politics. Their position is clear , they want to stay in the EU but acept that they may have to be pragmatic and take a halfway house for a short period. It has been said clearly and often in Scotland but ignored by right wing London rags.
    What is this EU "half-way house"? Is it like being a little bit pregnant?
    It is a transitory position to retaining EU membership due to UK interference in democracy. No big deal.
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    GeoffM said:

    GeoffM said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Where France's Front National is on the rise https://mobile.twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/853626684767121408

    Many of Roger's friends and neighbours must be voting FN.
    Looks like he won't be inviting the neighbours around for dinner then this summer
    Perhaps privately, Roger shares their opinions, and he posts here as a left wing alter ego.
    I think Roger is completely genuine.

    Nobody, when composing an alter ego, would actually create a narcissistic, Roman Polanski-defending tampon advertiser.

    Or would they.... hmmm. Now you've got me wondering too.
    Not quite as unlikely as a labour supporting Cheshire farmer who never left his pc to go out to work the land and had an Asian gentleman farmer as his closest neighbour.
    I'm sure an international wine merchants was involved somewhere too?
    He actually was a wine merchant :-)

    He also had a bit of a problem with women posters as I recall ......
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,995
    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    The LDs are now the only party committed to staying in the EU rather than just the single market so as they have that market all to themselves though as the article suggests they are unlikely to get more than 25% on that platform

    You forgot the SNP exist
    No I didn't, the SNP now back staying in the EEA effectively rather than the EU like Labour, partly as a third of SNP voters voted Leave
    rubbish, that is just fantasy unionist bollox
    No it isn't, the SNP and Sturgeon are pushing against 'Hard Brexit' and to keep Scotland in the single market, Sturgeon has basically stopped saying there should be no Brexit at all, her position is little different to Keith Starmer or Chuka Umunna's
    Look we know you have no clue re the nuances of Scottish politics. Their position is clear , they want to stay in the EU but acept that they may have to be pragmatic and take a halfway house for a short period. It has been said clearly and often in Scotland but ignored by right wing London rags.
    So even you have admitted the SNP have now abandoned keeping Scotland in the EU to campaign simply to keep Scotland in the single market. Therefore you have confirmed my original point that the LDs are the only party still committed to staying in the EU
    Like talking to a brick wall
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850

    Turkish referendum figures vary a lot by country.
    UK, Italy, Greece, Spain, Bulgaria, Hungary, Sweden all very much 'No'.
    Austria, Netherlands and Germany very much 'Yes'

    UK Turks are very integrated. There are a fair number of them in Conservative associations in parts of North London.
  • Options
    calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    The LDs are now the only party committed to staying in the EU rather than just the single market so as they have that market all to themselves though as the article suggests they are unlikely to get more than 25% on that platform

    You forgot the SNP exist
    No I didn't, the SNP now back staying in the EEA effectively rather than the EU like Labour, partly as a third of SNP voters voted Leave
    rubbish, that is just fantasy unionist bollox
    No it isn't, the SNP and Sturgeon are pushing against 'Hard Brexit' and to keep Scotland in the single market, Sturgeon has basically stopped saying there should be no Brexit at all, her position is little different to Keith Starmer or Chuka Umunna's
    Sturgeon is keeping options open but is accepting the UK is "leaving" the EU in 2 yrs - via a 3 yr EEA like transition - leaving plenty time for Scotland to negotiate a sensible EEA deal with a willing EU
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Floater said:

    GeoffM said:

    GeoffM said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Where France's Front National is on the rise https://mobile.twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/853626684767121408

    Many of Roger's friends and neighbours must be voting FN.
    Looks like he won't be inviting the neighbours around for dinner then this summer
    Perhaps privately, Roger shares their opinions, and he posts here as a left wing alter ego.
    I think Roger is completely genuine.

    Nobody, when composing an alter ego, would actually create a narcissistic, Roman Polanski-defending tampon advertiser.

    Or would they.... hmmm. Now you've got me wondering too.
    Not quite as unlikely as a labour supporting Cheshire farmer who never left his pc to go out to work the land and had an Asian gentleman farmer as his closest neighbour.
    I'm sure an international wine merchants was involved somewhere too?
    He actually was a wine merchant :-)

    He also had a bit of a problem with women posters as I recall ......
    Working in Thresher didn't count.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,987
    Good evening, everyone.

    Mr. M, you bounder.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LAf0QnLFS7Q

    Rather enjoyable race.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2017
    This is basically an enormous strop from Erdogan because the EU wouldn't let Turkey join about 10 years ago.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Floater said:

    GeoffM said:

    GeoffM said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Where France's Front National is on the rise https://mobile.twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/853626684767121408

    Many of Roger's friends and neighbours must be voting FN.
    Looks like he won't be inviting the neighbours around for dinner then this summer
    Perhaps privately, Roger shares their opinions, and he posts here as a left wing alter ego.
    I think Roger is completely genuine.

    Nobody, when composing an alter ego, would actually create a narcissistic, Roman Polanski-defending tampon advertiser.

    Or would they.... hmmm. Now you've got me wondering too.
    Not quite as unlikely as a labour supporting Cheshire farmer who never left his pc to go out to work the land and had an Asian gentleman farmer as his closest neighbour.
    I'm sure an international wine merchants was involved somewhere too?
    He actually was a wine merchant :-)

    He also had a bit of a problem with women posters as I recall ......
    Don't you mean whine merchant?
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Looks like it'll be 51-49.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    AndyJS said:

    Looks like it'll be 51-49.

    I am guessing in Turkey they don't have the equivalent of the Lib Dems to call for a second referendum...
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    calum said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    The LDs are now the only party committed to staying in the EU rather than just the single market so as they have that market all to themselves though as the article suggests they are unlikely to get more than 25% on that platform

    You forgot the SNP exist
    No I didn't, the SNP now back staying in the EEA effectively rather than the EU like Labour, partly as a third of SNP voters voted Leave
    rubbish, that is just fantasy unionist bollox
    No it isn't, the SNP and Sturgeon are pushing against 'Hard Brexit' and to keep Scotland in the single market, Sturgeon has basically stopped saying there should be no Brexit at all, her position is little different to Keith Starmer or Chuka Umunna's
    Sturgeon is keeping options open but is accepting the UK is "leaving" the EU in 2 yrs - via a 3 yr EEA like transition - leaving plenty time for Scotland to negotiate a sensible EEA deal with a willing EU
    So still an EEA deal not staying in the EU as the LDs still want
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited April 2017
    Lloyds Banking Group has decided to set up a European base in Germany after the UK leaves the EU, the BBC understands.

    Lloyds has decided to convert its Berlin branch into a European hub, in order to maintain a presence inside the EU, sources told the BBC.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39613888

    So no major move....just a rebranding and some paperwork.
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Lloyds Banking Group has decided to set up a European base in Germany after the UK leaves the EU, the BBC understands.

    Lloyds has decided to convert its Berlin branch into a European hub, in order to maintain a presence inside the EU, sources told the BBC.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39613888

    So no major move....just a rebranding and some paperwork.

    A welcome (if temporary and minor) boost for the Berlin brassplate sign-making sector.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,987
    Writing the post-race ramble. Busy race, so I may miss bits out by mistake.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,079
    Theresa May now trying to take the credit for the absence of a nuclear holocaust.

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/853654520974409728
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798

    Writing the post-race ramble. Busy race, so I may miss bits out by mistake.

    Should have said 'will omit certain detail in the interests of clarity' so it seems intentional.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Opposition in Turkey calls for a recount of up to 60% of ballots.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    edited April 2017

    Theresa May now trying to take the credit for the absence of a nuclear holocaust.

    hts://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/853654520974409728

    'Has privately urged' apparently means 'has leaked to the press that he x'.
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,786

    Lloyds Banking Group has decided to set up a European base in Germany after the UK leaves the EU, the BBC understands.

    Lloyds has decided to convert its Berlin branch into a European hub, in order to maintain a presence inside the EU, sources told the BBC.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39613888

    So no major move....just a rebranding and some paperwork.

    Lloyds is just not an international player. I really find it hard to believe that they employ 300 people in Berlin.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,987
    Mr. kle4, the mistakes of Morris Dancer are sometimes his best moments. I remember being delighted at long odds on Perez being top 6, tipping it, then discovering he had a grid penalty. He finished top 6 anyway.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929

    Theresa May now trying to take the credit for the absence of a nuclear holocaust.

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/853654520974409728

    The Ed Miliband of the pacific ?
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    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,786

    Mr. kle4, the mistakes of Morris Dancer are sometimes his best moments. I remember being delighted at long odds on Perez being top 6, tipping it, then discovering he had a grid penalty. He finished top 6 anyway.

    If illeism is good enough for Caesar it's good enough for you eh!?

    (I discovered the above word after trying to mug you off on similar but different lines)
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    Theresa May now trying to take the credit for the absence of a nuclear holocaust.

    #DespiteBrexit
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,987
    Mr. Omnium, got to say, Morris Dancer found that style of writing one of the least attractive parts of The Gallic War.

    F1: McLaren has a DNS/DNF rate of 5/6. Shocking.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    isam said:

    This is fantastic!

    hps://twitter.com/dailymailuk/status/853662789298253826

    When filling out Electronic System for Travel Authorisation (ESTA) immigration forms needed to enter the United States, Kenyon accidentally ticked 'yes' in the section asking if the trip was for terrorism on baby Harvey's document


    I know they have silly questions, but really? Good to be thorough I guess.

  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    kle4 said:

    isam said:

    This is fantastic!

    hps://twitter.com/dailymailuk/status/853662789298253826

    When filling out Electronic System for Travel Authorisation (ESTA) immigration forms needed to enter the United States, Kenyon accidentally ticked 'yes' in the section asking if the trip was for terrorism on baby Harvey's document


    I know they have silly questions, but really? Good to be thorough I guess.

    I think that is the same question where they ask if you were involved with the Nazi regime specifically
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    AndyJS said:

    Looks like it'll be 51-49.

    I am guessing in Turkey they don't have the equivalent of the Lib Dems to call for a second referendum...
    If they did they would either be banned or worse.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    GeoffM said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Where France's Front National is on the rise https://mobile.twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/853626684767121408

    Many of Roger's friends and neighbours must be voting FN.
    Looks like he won't be inviting the neighbours around for dinner then this summer
    Perhaps privately, Roger shares their opinions, and he posts here as a left wing alter ego.
    I think Roger is completely genuine.

    Nobody, when composing an alter ego, would actually create a narcissistic, Roman Polanski-defending tampon advertiser.

    Or would they.... hmmm. Now you've got me wondering too.
    Having been drinking with roger at a PB function, I can vouch for him being a genuine lefty, and very witty company. My only criticism is that he is a wine rather than beer drinker. A sad but tolerable fault.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850

    Mr. Omnium, got to say, Morris Dancer found that style of writing one of the least attractive parts of The Gallic War.

    F1: McLaren has a DNS/DNF rate of 5/6. Shocking.

    Surely, that was just the literary convention of the time.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,344


    Labour members are leaving at around 3,000 every week, largely unnoticed by The Media. Of course with nearly half a Million members that slow leak can drag on a long time with no obvious effect but it is damaging whats left of Labour morale.
    .

    Citation needed for your figures - I read the original alarmist story, but I don't think it's actually happening. I'm membership secretary for my (north Nottingham) area and there have been precisely 2 resignations and 2 lapses (and 2 new members) in the last 3 months. That's possibly partly because nearly everyone is now on direct debit. It's a WWC area and I doubt if the position is very different elsewhere. If the LibDems even exist locally, they're showing no sign of it.

    I do think the LibDems have a good opportunity at the moment and of course Labour is in difficulty, but it's not obvious that the LibDems are making much headway beyond a useful ability to gain tactical support in well-canvassed local eleections.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    isam said:

    This is fantastic!

    hps://twitter.com/dailymailuk/status/853662789298253826

    When filling out Electronic System for Travel Authorisation (ESTA) immigration forms needed to enter the United States, Kenyon accidentally ticked 'yes' in the section asking if the trip was for terrorism on baby Harvey's document


    I know they have silly questions, but really? Good to be thorough I guess.

    I think that is the same question where they ask if you were involved with the Nazi regime specifically
    Lately? Not at all.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    SeanT said:

    Floater said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Jeremy Cliffe‏Verified account @JeremyCliffe 1h1 hour ago

    Celebrations already underway in Berlin. Convoy of cars honking horns and flying Turkish flag just swept up Reinhardtstraße."

    That must give Germans a lovely *wilkommmen* vibe
    I am bemused, what do all these ex-pat Turks in Germany see in a putin-esque wannabe dictator?
    Conservative Islam.
    Bodes well eh?
    Islam and democracy are incompatible. Ataturk was right.
    Pity Merkel didn't get the memo :-)
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,987
    Mr. F, yeah, it was, but I still dislike it.

    So, it's a bit like crucifixion.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    isam said:

    This is fantastic!

    hps://twitter.com/dailymailuk/status/853662789298253826

    When filling out Electronic System for Travel Authorisation (ESTA) immigration forms needed to enter the United States, Kenyon accidentally ticked 'yes' in the section asking if the trip was for terrorism on baby Harvey's document


    I know they have silly questions, but really? Good to be thorough I guess.

    I think that is the same question where they ask if you were involved with the Nazi regime specifically
    Lately? Not at all.
    Yes, it's all been a bit quiet on that front recently!
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Theresa May now trying to take the credit for the absence of a nuclear holocaust.

    htps://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/853654520974409728

    I am 98% certain that such statements are agreed by both parties to the conversation prior to release and therefore the claim is true and Trump wishes it to be known that it is true. Your problem is that it confirms that the UK remains a player on the world stage, in particular because of TMay's astute handling of our relationship with Washington. This was never meant to happen after Brexit, and a little twinge of butt hurt has spoiled your Easter.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548


    Labour members are leaving at around 3,000 every week, largely unnoticed by The Media. Of course with nearly half a Million members that slow leak can drag on a long time with no obvious effect but it is damaging whats left of Labour morale.
    .

    Citation needed for your figures - I read the original alarmist story, but I don't think it's actually happening. I'm membership secretary for my (north Nottingham) area and there have been precisely 2 resignations and 2 lapses (and 2 new members) in the last 3 months. That's possibly partly because nearly everyone is now on direct debit. It's a WWC area and I doubt if the position is very different elsewhere. If the LibDems even exist locally, they're showing no sign of it.

    I do think the LibDems have a good opportunity at the moment and of course Labour is in difficulty, but it's not obvious that the LibDems are making much headway beyond a useful ability to gain tactical support in well-canvassed local eleections.
    I think different geographies for Labour and LD, with crossover in a few patches. Across shire and suburban England, Labour are not in the game. Labour should hold a couple of Loughborough seats in Leics, Melton and a couple of Coalville, but otherwise extinct.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,987
    From the BBC story: "Opponents have attacked a decision to accept unstamped ballot papers as valid unless proven otherwise."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39612562

    *raises an eyebrow*
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285

    From the BBC story: "Opponents have attacked a decision to accept unstamped ballot papers as valid unless proven otherwise."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39612562

    *raises an eyebrow*

    Nothing dodgy there, absolutely nothing what so ever...
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969

    From the BBC story: "Opponents have attacked a decision to accept unstamped ballot papers as valid unless proven otherwise."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39612562

    *raises an eyebrow*

    Three people were shot dead near a polling station in the south-eastern province of Diyarbakir, reportedly during a dispute over how they were voting.

    Blimey!
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,465

    GeoffM said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Where France's Front National is on the rise https://mobile.twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/853626684767121408

    Many of Roger's friends and neighbours must be voting FN.
    Looks like he won't be inviting the neighbours around for dinner then this summer
    Perhaps privately, Roger shares their opinions, and he posts here as a left wing alter ego.
    I think Roger is completely genuine.

    Nobody, when composing an alter ego, would actually create a narcissistic, Roman Polanski-defending tampon advertiser.

    Or would they.... hmmm. Now you've got me wondering too.
    Having been drinking with roger at a PB function, I can vouch for him being a genuine lefty, and very witty company. My only criticism is that he is a wine rather than beer drinker. A sad but tolerable fault.
    Odd that he doesn't treat us to some of that wit in print here.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,987
    Mr. D, sounds like a free and fair election to me. ....
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    edited April 2017

    From the BBC story: "Opponents have attacked a decision to accept unstamped ballot papers as valid unless proven otherwise."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39612562

    *raises an eyebrow*

    If stamping is a requirement of the process, surely not being stamped is itself proof they are not valid so how could that be justified by defenders? If stamping is not a requirement the opponents have no case anyway?

    Eh, it'd take a lot of ballots to be accepted as phony to change the result. I have a sneaking suspicious all will be well for the Sulta...President.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited April 2017

    Mr. D, sounds like a free and fair election to me. ....

    They should have sent this crack team of election observers to ensure it was free and fair...

    image
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,995
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Theresa May now trying to take the credit for the absence of a nuclear holocaust.

    htps://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/853654520974409728

    I am 98% certain that such statements are agreed by both parties to the conversation prior to release and therefore the claim is true and Trump wishes it to be known that it is true. Your problem is that it confirms that the UK remains a player on the world stage, in particular because of TMay's astute handling of our relationship with Washington. This was never meant to happen after Brexit, and a little twinge of butt hurt has spoiled your Easter.
    You must be kidding, that has to be the joke of the day
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    edited April 2017
    RoyalBlue said:

    SeanT said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    SeanT said:
    I don't see how No can win.

    Turkish Republic, 1923-2017. RIP.
    Yes. Kemal Ataturk's Turkey was, for all its flaws, a good thing. Secular, pro-Western, democratic.

    Now this. Sad.
    Democratic? To some extent. The secular elite are now paying the price for stamping on the culture and traditions of Anatolia. The heartland would tolerate it from Ataturk, but not the self-seeking elites who followed.
    The turkish heartland is rejecting the coastal elite......
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,325
    Will the Turkish YES vote equal or exceed that of the UK's YES vote last year of 51.8%?
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,314
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Theresa May now trying to take the credit for the absence of a nuclear holocaust.

    htps://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/853654520974409728

    I am 98% certain that such statements are agreed by both parties to the conversation prior to release and therefore the claim is true and Trump wishes it to be known that it is true. Your problem is that it confirms that the UK remains a player on the world stage, in particular because of TMay's astute handling of our relationship with Washington. This was never meant to happen after Brexit, and a little twinge of butt hurt has spoiled your Easter.
    Only 98%, eh?

    So out of 100 twitter stories, you believe two will be fabricated. Who's to say this isn't one of them?
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,931
    Saw this happen on video on twitter earlier, quite shocking

    https://twitter.com/mrdane1982/status/853452510656430081
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    TOPPING said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Theresa May now trying to take the credit for the absence of a nuclear holocaust.

    htps://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/853654520974409728

    I am 98% certain that such statements are agreed by both parties to the conversation prior to release and therefore the claim is true and Trump wishes it to be known that it is true. Your problem is that it confirms that the UK remains a player on the world stage, in particular because of TMay's astute handling of our relationship with Washington. This was never meant to happen after Brexit, and a little twinge of butt hurt has spoiled your Easter.
    Only 98%, eh?

    So out of 100 twitter stories, you believe two will be fabricated. Who's to say this isn't one of them?
    Well, two out of 100 Sun stories. :)
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,987
    F1: post-race analysis is now up. Lib Dems may be interested to know there's a bar chart (and a line graph too):
    http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/04/bahrain-post-race-analysis-2017.html
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    On topic - how high can The Libdems go ?
    What a lot of this misses is any grasp of just how badly Brexit could go wrong & just what is happening to Labour. Its not just Local contests, over the last year Labour Polling average has been on a steady slide, losing roughly 1% every 2 Months. The causes of the decline are well known but there is nothing anyone in Labour can do. Even the Nuclear option of a split is of the table because both Left & Right are divided over Brexit.
    Labour members are leaving at around 3,000 every week, largely unnoticed by The Media. Of course with nearly half a Million members that slow leak can drag on a long time with no obvious effect but it is damaging whats left of Labour morale.
    The Libdems cant yet challenge Labour for 2nd place In The Polls (on the ground is another matter) but wait a year or two & look again.

    Labour has actually been pretty stable in the polls since early December.
  • Options
    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    nunu said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    SeanT said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    SeanT said:
    I don't see how No can win.

    Turkish Republic, 1923-2017. RIP.
    Yes. Kemal Ataturk's Turkey was, for all its flaws, a good thing. Secular, pro-Western, democratic.

    Now this. Sad.
    Democratic? To some extent. The secular elite are now paying the price for stamping on the culture and traditions of Anatolia. The heartland would tolerate it from Ataturk, but not the self-seeking elites who followed.
    The turkish heartland is rejecting the costal elite......
    The truth is Turkey is split down the middle, and has been for years. It makes the divide over Brexit look like a storm in a teacup.
  • Options
    As a Man Utd supporter since 1953 I can say I was proud of the reds today who played their best football of the season. Good luck to all Spurs supporters and I would remind Chelsea supporters of the words of the greatest manager of all time, Sir Alex Ferguson, 'its squeaky bum time'
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969

    F1: post-race analysis is now up. Lib Dems may be interested to know there's a bar chart (and a line graph too):
    http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/04/bahrain-post-race-analysis-2017.html

    I think you forgot the "Only Mercedes can win here" arrow. :D
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,081
    Poor Turkey. Ataturk will be spinning in his grave.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,987
    Mr. D, in my defence, Vettel forgot it twice.
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    isam said:

    Saw this happen on video on twitter earlier, quite shocking

    https://twitter.com/mrdane1982/status/853452510656430081

    That is horrific
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285

    isam said:

    Saw this happen on video on twitter earlier, quite shocking

    https://twitter.com/mrdane1982/status/853452510656430081

    That is horrific
    There were a lot of really nasty incidents from that "protest".
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,314
    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Theresa May now trying to take the credit for the absence of a nuclear holocaust.

    htps://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/853654520974409728

    I am 98% certain that such statements are agreed by both parties to the conversation prior to release and therefore the claim is true and Trump wishes it to be known that it is true. Your problem is that it confirms that the UK remains a player on the world stage, in particular because of TMay's astute handling of our relationship with Washington. This was never meant to happen after Brexit, and a little twinge of butt hurt has spoiled your Easter.
    Only 98%, eh?

    So out of 100 twitter stories, you believe two will be fabricated. Who's to say this isn't one of them?
    Well, two out of 100 Sun stories. :)
    well it was also a twitter link in this instance, but yes...
  • Options

    isam said:

    Saw this happen on video on twitter earlier, quite shocking

    https://twitter.com/mrdane1982/status/853452510656430081

    That is horrific
    There were a lot of really nasty incidents from that "protest".
    Where was it
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited April 2017

    isam said:

    Saw this happen on video on twitter earlier, quite shocking

    https://twitter.com/mrdane1982/status/853452510656430081

    That is horrific
    There were a lot of really nasty incidents from that "protest".
    Where was it
    Berkeley.

    There appears to be reports that again the police just stood by and let a lot of it happen.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Poor Turkey. Ataturk will be spinning in his grave.

    Why ? He was a dictator.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    surbiton said:

    Poor Turkey. Ataturk will be spinning in his grave.

    Why ? He was a dictator.
    Dictators cannot spin in their graves at a country taking a turn they would not like?
  • Options
    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    Poor Turkey. Ataturk will be spinning in his grave.

    He did great things for his country, but the institutions he left were less than perfect. He reminds me a little of De Gaulle.

    If only Britain could have had a statesman to equal either. I guess Thatcher was the closest.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    As a Man Utd supporter since 1953 I can say I was proud of the reds today who played their best football of the season. Good luck to all Spurs supporters and I would remind Chelsea supporters of the words of the greatest manager of all time, Sir Alex Ferguson, 'its squeaky bum time'

    MU played their best game since Fergie left. Rashford was outstanding. 4-4-2 suits the team best.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Will the Turkish YES vote equal or exceed that of the UK's YES vote last year of 51.8%?

    UK voted No.
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    SeanT said:

    Sean_F said:

    Turkish referendum figures vary a lot by country.
    UK, Italy, Greece, Spain, Bulgaria, Hungary, Sweden all very much 'No'.
    Austria, Netherlands and Germany very much 'Yes'

    UK Turks are very integrated. There are a fair number of them in Conservative associations in parts of North London.
    Also a lot of them are Kurds.
    Why such a difference between expats in u.k and Germany/Netherlands? They are both sunni muslim right?
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Theresa May now trying to take the credit for the absence of a nuclear holocaust.

    htps://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/853654520974409728

    I am 98% certain that such statements are agreed by both parties to the conversation prior to release and therefore the claim is true and Trump wishes it to be known that it is true. Your problem is that it confirms that the UK remains a player on the world stage, in particular because of TMay's astute handling of our relationship with Washington. This was never meant to happen after Brexit, and a little twinge of butt hurt has spoiled your Easter.
    Only 98%, eh?

    So out of 100 twitter stories, you believe two will be fabricated. Who's to say this isn't one of them?
    Well, two out of 100 Sun stories. :)
    well it was also a twitter link in this instance, but yes...
    OK, so if I tweet, let us say, the laws of thermodynamics, that calls them into question because as well as being the laws of thermodynamics they are "also a twitter link in this instance"?

    And can you not distinguish between stories in the Sun which say "Lord Lucan spotted in Tierra del Fuego" (not easily disproven) and "Downing Street says x" (disproven in an instant by a denial from Downing Street, whose own statement is in turn disproven in an instant by a tweet from the Donald?) Really, how difficult is this?
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    nunu said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    SeanT said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    SeanT said:
    I don't see how No can win.

    Turkish Republic, 1923-2017. RIP.
    Yes. Kemal Ataturk's Turkey was, for all its flaws, a good thing. Secular, pro-Western, democratic.

    Now this. Sad.
    Democratic? To some extent. The secular elite are now paying the price for stamping on the culture and traditions of Anatolia. The heartland would tolerate it from Ataturk, but not the self-seeking elites who followed.
    The turkish heartland is rejecting the coastal elite......
    The vote is exactly the same as it would have been 50 years ago or even 60. The AK party's predecessor, the Justice Party and it's predecessor, the Democrat Party also got their votes from the Anatolian heartland and provincial towns. Only under Erdogan that they began to win in Istanbut and Ankara. I understand today, "Evet" may have lost in Ankara and Istanbul.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,325
    Will the Turkish YES vote equal or exceed that of the UK's LEAVE vote last year of 51.8%?
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,325
    surbiton said:

    Poor Turkey. Ataturk will be spinning in his grave.

    Why ? He was a dictator.
    But secular? Like Assad?
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited April 2017
    kle4 said:

    surbiton said:

    Poor Turkey. Ataturk will be spinning in his grave.

    Why ? He was a dictator.
    Dictators cannot spin in their graves at a country taking a turn they would not like?
    Whether you like it or not, the vote represents many similar splits in the Turkish fabric. The west and parts of the south being liberal. The heartland voting strongly with the conservative party and the east voting against simply because they are Kurds.

    The Liberal Establishment hanged an elected Prime Minister, ousted another one and may have planned a similar fate for Erdogan as well. So much for democracy.
This discussion has been closed.