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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on whether Paul Nuttall will still be UKIP leader at t

SystemSystem Posts: 12,150
edited April 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on whether Paul Nuttall will still be UKIP leader at the end of 2017

William Hill have a market up on whether Paul Nuttall will still be UKIP leader at the end of 2017, to be honest neither of the odds seem attractive to me.

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Comments

  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,122
    First, like Mrs May!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Second like REMAIN and YES
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Agree with TSE - who cares enough to want him out? Unless a strong "betrayal" narrative gets going and the USA becomes uncongenial to Mr Farage I suspect no one really cares enough to want to shift him.....though Coburn would undoubtedly add to the Gaiety of the Nation...
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    I wonder what time the CCHQ morning shift start. These are hard workers!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,755
    What happens if there is not a UKIP party to lead?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,509
    Morning. Not sure I'd want to bet on anything to do with UKIP this year (except their losing seats on May 4th). Their time will come back if the PM messes up the Brexit negotiations but that won't be clear until much later. If it all goes reasonably according to plan then UKIP have served their purpose and probably fall away to nothing.

    F1: it's raining but not pouring, looks like a wet/dry race. 45 mins until the start.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,321
    Mr Eagles, you have just said the Mr Nuttall lost the Stoke Central by-election. I think you will find it was an unnamed acquaintance of his and that he was somewhere nearby in Newcastle under Lyme at the time, receiving an honorary doctorate from Keele in the related fields of politics and creative writing.

    Or at least, that's what I'm told his new CV will say.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Morning all.

    Nuttall will remain the UKIP leader well beyond 2017 and long after everyone else has left it...

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,152
    Not my sort of bet, but I'd suggest the 8/11 on Nuttall to still be leader at the end of 2017 is value.
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107
    The leader of Ukip is an irrelevance, I can't imagine anybody being interested enough to place a bet on it. The party will fold next year when the MEPs finish and the money dries up.

    Still, job done and they continue to rattle plenty of cages on here, so its been a blast.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,152
    Btw, what an opportunistic shit Tim Farron is.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    There are unconfirmed reports that The Dear Leader Nuttall will abdicate as UKIP leader to take up his positions as President of France, Russia and Chancellor of Germany.

    The only impediment being that as Duke of Stoke, Nuttall is booked for several engagements with the Potteries Potty Pre-eminent Political Potentates and as Life President his grace is determined to swell the membership above one.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    tlg86 said:

    Btw, what an opportunistic shit Tim Farron is.

    If correct we must surely congratulate Mr Farron on securing a vital element of successful political leadership.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    The leader of Ukip is an irrelevance, I can't imagine anybody being interested enough to place a bet on it. The party will fold next year when the MEPs finish and the money dries up.

    Still, job done and they continue to rattle plenty of cages on here, so its been a blast.

    I agree that UKIP is now a pointless irrelevance now, with no idea of what to do next and even the TPD deserting the ship. Even so it polls circa 10% showing that we are entering purple rosette on a donkey territory.

    It may have a future as a slighly more acceptable BNP style party.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,401
    I’m actually beginning to feel sorry for the fellow.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,152
    JackW said:

    tlg86 said:

    Btw, what an opportunistic shit Tim Farron is.

    If correct we must surely congratulate Mr Farron on securing a vital element of successful political leadership.
    Foreign affairs is the one area where opposition leaders have to be very careful not to be seen to be opportunistic shits. I don't know how much it damaged Ed Miliband, but his behaviour in 2013 was despicable. Fortunately for the Lib Dems, most people haven't heard of Tim Farron.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    Ukip no longer have a purpose. The LDs do - they survive to howl at the moon as they attempt to subvert democracy.

    So sad. A once great party reduced to this as their raison d'etre.

    Oh, and greetings from sunny Sydney.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited April 2017
    tlg86 said:

    JackW said:

    tlg86 said:

    Btw, what an opportunistic shit Tim Farron is.

    If correct we must surely congratulate Mr Farron on securing a vital element of successful political leadership.
    Foreign affairs is the one area where opposition leaders have to be very careful not to be seen to be opportunistic shits. I don't know how much it damaged Ed Miliband, but his behaviour in 2013 was despicable. Fortunately for the Lib Dems, most people haven't heard of Tim Farron.
    Whether Miliband or Farron fall into your political accolade of "opportunist shits" is open to debate. The same and worse was said during the Iraq war of Charles Kennedy.

    It might be said of foreign affairs, especially involving military intervention, that forensic scrutiny and scepticism from the opposition is no bad thing. Government backers will roar opportunism, the more cautious will reserve judgement.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    What makes her think the Conservatives, would want or need a third rater like her?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    CD13 said:

    Ukip no longer have a purpose. The LDs do - they survive to howl at the moon as they attempt to subvert democracy.

    So sad. A once great party reduced to this as their raison d'etre.

    Oh, and greetings from sunny Sydney.

    It is perfectly democratic to try to garner support for a change in Britains policy towards our European neighbours.

    I am less convinced by Farrons support for Trump's "Wag the Dog" conversion to bombing Assad. America is now bombing both sides in the Syrian Civil War, with no plan as to what to do next.

    Credit where it is due, Nuttall has condemned the bombing, alongside Jezza and the Green Party.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,605
    Blukip is definitely a thing now. Not sure what's in it for the Tories.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,638
    saddened said:

    What makes her think the Conservatives, would want or need a third rater like her?

    If there is a way back for a mediocrity like Reckless, surely James has a chance.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,638

    CD13 said:

    Ukip no longer have a purpose. The LDs do - they survive to howl at the moon as they attempt to subvert democracy.

    So sad. A once great party reduced to this as their raison d'etre.

    Oh, and greetings from sunny Sydney.

    It is perfectly democratic to try to garner support for a change in Britains policy towards our European neighbours.

    I am less convinced by Farrons support for Trump's "Wag the Dog" conversion to bombing Assad. America is now bombing both sides in the Syrian Civil War, with no plan as to what to do next.

    Credit where it is due, Nuttall has condemned the bombing, alongside Jezza and the Green Party.

    With the Tories heading right and Labour destroying itself on the far left, the gap in the centre is getting bigger and bigger. It won't happen quickly, but the LDs must fancy their chances over the longer term of filling it.

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Jonathan said:

    Blukip is definitely a thing now. Not sure what's in it for the Tories.

    Reabsorbing the purple frothers protects the right flank, and is something entirely in keeping with where the Tories sympathies lie.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,605
    Forget Farron. What's Fallon up to?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,605

    Jonathan said:

    Blukip is definitely a thing now. Not sure what's in it for the Tories.

    Reabsorbing the purple frothers protects the right flank, and is something entirely in keeping with where the Tories sympathies lie.
    Sympathy maybe. I always thought it served the Tories very well, almost to the point of genius, to outsource its Tea Party fringe.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,152
    JackW said:

    tlg86 said:

    JackW said:

    tlg86 said:

    Btw, what an opportunistic shit Tim Farron is.

    If correct we must surely congratulate Mr Farron on securing a vital element of successful political leadership.
    Foreign affairs is the one area where opposition leaders have to be very careful not to be seen to be opportunistic shits. I don't know how much it damaged Ed Miliband, but his behaviour in 2013 was despicable. Fortunately for the Lib Dems, most people haven't heard of Tim Farron.
    Whether Miliband or Farron fall into your political accolade of "opportunist shits" is open to debate. The same and worse was said during the Iraq war of Charles Kennedy.

    It might be said of foreign affairs, especially involving military intervention, that forensic scrutiny and scepticism from the opposition is no bad thing. Government backers will roar opportunism, the more cautious will reserve judgement.
    I'd say the flip side is that the government has an obligation to not play games over this stuff and be up front and honest. That certainly wasn't the case with Iraq and fair play to Kennedy calling it out.

    But calling the Foreign Secretary a "poodle of Washington" is just bizarre. From what I can tell, we're coordinating our response to the chemical attack with the Americans which seems sensible. Perhaps it shows that being Foreign Secretary isn't that big a deal these days, but I'd have thought the Lib Dems would be happy about that.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Jonathan said:

    Forget Farron. What's Fallon up to?

    Inspecting our air craft carriers. He'll be home by yesterday.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,605

    CD13 said:

    Ukip no longer have a purpose. The LDs do - they survive to howl at the moon as they attempt to subvert democracy.

    So sad. A once great party reduced to this as their raison d'etre.

    Oh, and greetings from sunny Sydney.

    It is perfectly democratic to try to garner support for a change in Britains policy towards our European neighbours.

    I am less convinced by Farrons support for Trump's "Wag the Dog" conversion to bombing Assad. America is now bombing both sides in the Syrian Civil War, with no plan as to what to do next.

    Credit where it is due, Nuttall has condemned the bombing, alongside Jezza and the Green Party.

    With the Tories heading right and Labour destroying itself on the far left, the gap in the centre is getting bigger and bigger. It won't happen quickly, but the LDs must fancy their chances over the longer term of filling it.

    But weirdly they're not. Stubbornly stuck on 10%. The coalition casts a long shadow and Labour still present by far the most likely alternative
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,638
    Jonathan said:

    Blukip is definitely a thing now. Not sure what's in it for the Tories.

    For as long as Labour is controlled by the hard left, the Tories can do what they like. Their rightward journey only becomes an issue once a strong centre re-emerges and given the electoral system we have that will take a bit of time.

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Blukip is definitely a thing now. Not sure what's in it for the Tories.

    Reabsorbing the purple frothers protects the right flank, and is something entirely in keeping with where the Tories sympathies lie.
    Sympathy maybe. I always thought it served the Tories very well, almost to the point of genius, to outsource its Tea Party fringe.
    The lunatics have now taken over the asylum.

    Exhibit one: BoJo as Foreign Secretary pulling out of meetings in Moscow. This is very much the time to open communications with Russia, not cut them off. If anyone can put pressure on Assad, it is Putin.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Jonathan said:

    CD13 said:

    Ukip no longer have a purpose. The LDs do - they survive to howl at the moon as they attempt to subvert democracy.

    So sad. A once great party reduced to this as their raison d'etre.

    Oh, and greetings from sunny Sydney.

    It is perfectly democratic to try to garner support for a change in Britains policy towards our European neighbours.

    I am less convinced by Farrons support for Trump's "Wag the Dog" conversion to bombing Assad. America is now bombing both sides in the Syrian Civil War, with no plan as to what to do next.

    Credit where it is due, Nuttall has condemned the bombing, alongside Jezza and the Green Party.

    With the Tories heading right and Labour destroying itself on the far left, the gap in the centre is getting bigger and bigger. It won't happen quickly, but the LDs must fancy their chances over the longer term of filling it.

    But weirdly they're not. Stubbornly stuck on 10%. The coalition casts a long shadow and Labour still present by far the most likely alternative
    the Tories aren't turning right. That's why the LD's are stuck on 10%. There are right wing nuts in the Tories but Labour has been taken over by the left and are stuffed.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,605

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Blukip is definitely a thing now. Not sure what's in it for the Tories.

    Reabsorbing the purple frothers protects the right flank, and is something entirely in keeping with where the Tories sympathies lie.
    Sympathy maybe. I always thought it served the Tories very well, almost to the point of genius, to outsource its Tea Party fringe.
    The lunatics have now taken over the asylum.

    Exhibit one: BoJo as Foreign Secretary pulling out of meetings in Moscow. This is very much the time to open communications with Russia, not cut them off. If anyone can put pressure on Assad, it is Putin.
    Fallon is on full frontal assault on Russia.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,605

    Jonathan said:

    CD13 said:

    Ukip no longer have a purpose. The LDs do - they survive to howl at the moon as they attempt to subvert democracy.

    So sad. A once great party reduced to this as their raison d'etre.

    Oh, and greetings from sunny Sydney.

    It is perfectly democratic to try to garner support for a change in Britains policy towards our European neighbours.

    I am less convinced by Farrons support for Trump's "Wag the Dog" conversion to bombing Assad. America is now bombing both sides in the Syrian Civil War, with no plan as to what to do next.

    Credit where it is due, Nuttall has condemned the bombing, alongside Jezza and the Green Party.

    With the Tories heading right and Labour destroying itself on the far left, the gap in the centre is getting bigger and bigger. It won't happen quickly, but the LDs must fancy their chances over the longer term of filling it.

    But weirdly they're not. Stubbornly stuck on 10%. The coalition casts a long shadow and Labour still present by far the most likely alternative
    the Tories aren't turning right. That's why the LD's are stuck on 10%. There are right wing nuts in the Tories but Labour has been taken over by the left and are stuffed.
    Tories are Reckless
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Jonathan said:

    CD13 said:

    Ukip no longer have a purpose. The LDs do - they survive to howl at the moon as they attempt to subvert democracy.

    So sad. A once great party reduced to this as their raison d'etre.

    Oh, and greetings from sunny Sydney.

    It is perfectly democratic to try to garner support for a change in Britains policy towards our European neighbours.

    I am less convinced by Farrons support for Trump's "Wag the Dog" conversion to bombing Assad. America is now bombing both sides in the Syrian Civil War, with no plan as to what to do next.

    Credit where it is due, Nuttall has condemned the bombing, alongside Jezza and the Green Party.

    With the Tories heading right and Labour destroying itself on the far left, the gap in the centre is getting bigger and bigger. It won't happen quickly, but the LDs must fancy their chances over the longer term of filling it.

    But weirdly they're not. Stubbornly stuck on 10%. The coalition casts a long shadow and Labour still present by far the most likely alternative
    It depends on where you are in the country. In much of it, and particularly in the areas having elections in May, the opposition to the govt is not Labour.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,638
    edited April 2017
    Jonathan said:

    CD13 said:

    Ukip no longer have a purpose. The LDs do - they survive to howl at the moon as they attempt to subvert democracy.

    So sad. A once great party reduced to this as their raison d'etre.

    Oh, and greetings from sunny Sydney.

    It is perfectly democratic to try to garner support for a change in Britains policy towards our European neighbours.

    I am less convinced by Farrons support for Trump's "Wag the Dog" conversion to bombing Assad. America is now bombing both sides in the Syrian Civil War, with no plan as to what to do next.

    Credit where it is due, Nuttall has condemned the bombing, alongside Jezza and the Green Party.

    With the Tories heading right and Labour destroying itself on the far left, the gap in the centre is getting bigger and bigger. It won't happen quickly, but the LDs must fancy their chances over the longer term of filling it.

    But weirdly they're not. Stubbornly stuck on 10%. The coalition casts a long shadow and Labour still present by far the most likely alternative

    Labour is killing itself. At some stage there will be a tipping point when all but the most obstinate far leftist will realise there is no way back for the party. Right now, a lot of people on the centre left are betting that Corbyn will be gone before the next GE. But with McCluskey set to be strengthened by re-election, that is now looking a lot less likely. I do think Farron is a problem for the LDs, but he is not in insurmountable one.

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,152

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Blukip is definitely a thing now. Not sure what's in it for the Tories.

    Reabsorbing the purple frothers protects the right flank, and is something entirely in keeping with where the Tories sympathies lie.
    Sympathy maybe. I always thought it served the Tories very well, almost to the point of genius, to outsource its Tea Party fringe.
    The lunatics have now taken over the asylum.

    Exhibit one: BoJo as Foreign Secretary pulling out of meetings in Moscow. This is very much the time to open communications with Russia, not cut them off. If anyone can put pressure on Assad, it is Putin.
    That was Obama's approach, was it not? Given what happened last week, the time for soft power is surely over.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,638

    Jonathan said:

    CD13 said:

    Ukip no longer have a purpose. The LDs do - they survive to howl at the moon as they attempt to subvert democracy.

    So sad. A once great party reduced to this as their raison d'etre.

    Oh, and greetings from sunny Sydney.

    It is perfectly democratic to try to garner support for a change in Britains policy towards our European neighbours.

    I am less convinced by Farrons support for Trump's "Wag the Dog" conversion to bombing Assad. America is now bombing both sides in the Syrian Civil War, with no plan as to what to do next.

    Credit where it is due, Nuttall has condemned the bombing, alongside Jezza and the Green Party.

    With the Tories heading right and Labour destroying itself on the far left, the gap in the centre is getting bigger and bigger. It won't happen quickly, but the LDs must fancy their chances over the longer term of filling it.

    But weirdly they're not. Stubbornly stuck on 10%. The coalition casts a long shadow and Labour still present by far the most likely alternative
    the Tories aren't turning right. That's why the LD's are stuck on 10%. There are right wing nuts in the Tories but Labour has been taken over by the left and are stuffed.

    The Tories are turning right - that's why UKIPers are returning. But a right wing party that waves the flag will always do better than a left wing party that spurns it - especially when it is led by such a grotesque incompetent as Corbyn. Once the far left's hegemony in Labour is sealed, a lot of centre leftists giving it one last chance will walk away completely.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,605

    Jonathan said:

    CD13 said:

    Ukip no longer have a purpose. The LDs do - they survive to howl at the moon as they attempt to subvert democracy.

    So sad. A once great party reduced to this as their raison d'etre.

    Oh, and greetings from sunny Sydney.

    It is perfectly democratic to try to garner support for a change in Britains policy towards our European neighbours.

    I am less convinced by Farrons support for Trump's "Wag the Dog" conversion to bombing Assad. America is now bombing both sides in the Syrian Civil War, with no plan as to what to do next.

    Credit where it is due, Nuttall has condemned the bombing, alongside Jezza and the Green Party.

    With the Tories heading right and Labour destroying itself on the far left, the gap in the centre is getting bigger and bigger. It won't happen quickly, but the LDs must fancy their chances over the longer term of filling it.

    But weirdly they're not. Stubbornly stuck on 10%. The coalition casts a long shadow and Labour still present by far the most likely alternative
    It depends on where you are in the country. In much of it, and particularly in the areas having elections in May, the opposition to the govt is not Labour.
    Sure. In about 50 of 650 winnable seats perhaps. Labour still operates on a different scale.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    tlg86 said:

    JackW said:

    tlg86 said:

    JackW said:

    tlg86 said:

    Btw, what an opportunistic shit Tim Farron is.

    If correct we must surely congratulate Mr Farron on securing a vital element of successful political leadership.
    Foreign affairs is the one area where opposition leaders have to be very careful not to be seen to be opportunistic shits. I don't know how much it damaged Ed Miliband, but his behaviour in 2013 was despicable. Fortunately for the Lib Dems, most people haven't heard of Tim Farron.
    Whether Miliband or Farron fall into your political accolade of "opportunist shits" is open to debate. The same and worse was said during the Iraq war of Charles Kennedy.

    It might be said of foreign affairs, especially involving military intervention, that forensic scrutiny and scepticism from the opposition is no bad thing. Government backers will roar opportunism, the more cautious will reserve judgement.
    I'd say the flip side is that the government has an obligation to not play games over this stuff and be up front and honest. That certainly wasn't the case with Iraq and fair play to Kennedy calling it out.

    But calling the Foreign Secretary a "poodle of Washington" is just bizarre. From what I can tell, we're coordinating our response to the chemical attack with the Americans which seems sensible. Perhaps it shows that being Foreign Secretary isn't that big a deal these days, but I'd have thought the Lib Dems would be happy about that.
    Noting Boris as a "poodle of Washington" should have lovers of the breed in a frenzy. No self respecting pooch of French heritage would be seen dead promenading along Pennsylvania Avenue with a shaggy main that our Foreign Secretary sports.

    Woof woof whiff whaff .....
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,638
    tlg86 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Blukip is definitely a thing now. Not sure what's in it for the Tories.

    Reabsorbing the purple frothers protects the right flank, and is something entirely in keeping with where the Tories sympathies lie.
    Sympathy maybe. I always thought it served the Tories very well, almost to the point of genius, to outsource its Tea Party fringe.
    The lunatics have now taken over the asylum.

    Exhibit one: BoJo as Foreign Secretary pulling out of meetings in Moscow. This is very much the time to open communications with Russia, not cut them off. If anyone can put pressure on Assad, it is Putin.
    That was Obama's approach, was it not? Given what happened last week, the time for soft power is surely over.

    Johnson pulling out of the Moscow trip is a demonstration of no power.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,321
    saddened said:

    What makes her think the Conservatives, would want or need a third rater like her?
    Observation of Liam Fox's performance in government?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Blukip is definitely a thing now. Not sure what's in it for the Tories.

    Reabsorbing the purple frothers protects the right flank, and is something entirely in keeping with where the Tories sympathies lie.
    Sympathy maybe. I always thought it served the Tories very well, almost to the point of genius, to outsource its Tea Party fringe.
    The lunatics have now taken over the asylum.

    Exhibit one: BoJo as Foreign Secretary pulling out of meetings in Moscow. This is very much the time to open communications with Russia, not cut them off. If anyone can put pressure on Assad, it is Putin.
    Fallon is on full frontal assault on Russia.
    Hopefully not literally, or we can all kiss our asses goodbye!

    Chemical weapons are appalling, but there is more than a whiff of hypocrisy from our government that sees killing civilians in Syria as a war crime, but bombing starving civilians in Yemen as a sales opportunity.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,605

    Jonathan said:

    CD13 said:

    Ukip no longer have a purpose. The LDs do - they survive to howl at the moon as they attempt to subvert democracy.

    So sad. A once great party reduced to this as their raison d'etre.

    Oh, and greetings from sunny Sydney.

    It is perfectly democratic to try to garner support for a change in Britains policy towards our European neighbours.

    I am less convinced by Farrons support for Trump's "Wag the Dog" conversion to bombing Assad. America is now bombing both sides in the Syrian Civil War, with no plan as to what to do next.

    Credit where it is due, Nuttall has condemned the bombing, alongside Jezza and the Green Party.

    With the Tories heading right and Labour destroying itself on the far left, the gap in the centre is getting bigger and bigger. It won't happen quickly, but the LDs must fancy their chances over the longer term of filling it.

    But weirdly they're not. Stubbornly stuck on 10%. The coalition casts a long shadow and Labour still present by far the most likely alternative

    Labour is killing itself. At some stage there will be a tipping point when all but the most obstinate far leftist will realise there is no way back for the party. Right now, a lot of people on the centre left are betting that Corbyn will be go before the next GE. But with McCluskey set to be strengthened by re-election, that is now looking a lot less likely. I do think Farron is a problem for the LDs, but he is not in insurmountable one.

    The LDs are very, very far from providing a left wing alternative. More Plaid Cymru than SNP. The quickest route to alternative is still to fix Labour.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,152

    tlg86 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Blukip is definitely a thing now. Not sure what's in it for the Tories.

    Reabsorbing the purple frothers protects the right flank, and is something entirely in keeping with where the Tories sympathies lie.
    Sympathy maybe. I always thought it served the Tories very well, almost to the point of genius, to outsource its Tea Party fringe.
    The lunatics have now taken over the asylum.

    Exhibit one: BoJo as Foreign Secretary pulling out of meetings in Moscow. This is very much the time to open communications with Russia, not cut them off. If anyone can put pressure on Assad, it is Putin.
    That was Obama's approach, was it not? Given what happened last week, the time for soft power is surely over.

    Johnson pulling out of the Moscow trip is a demonstration of no power.

    But why would we want to do our own thing in such circumstances? Clearly the Americans are interested in this situation and whether we like it or not realistically we can only offer our point of view and support/opposition as we see fit. What would the critics of Mr Johnson rather he was doing differently to what the Americans are doing?
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited April 2017

    Jonathan said:

    CD13 said:

    Ukip no longer have a purpose. The LDs do - they survive to howl at the moon as they attempt to subvert democracy.

    So sad. A once great party reduced to this as their raison d'etre.

    Oh, and greetings from sunny Sydney.

    It is perfectly democratic to try to garner support for a change in Britains policy towards our European neighbours.

    I am less convinced by Farrons support for Trump's "Wag the Dog" conversion to bombing Assad. America is now bombing both sides in the Syrian Civil War, with no plan as to what to do next.

    Credit where it is due, Nuttall has condemned the bombing, alongside Jezza and the Green Party.

    With the Tories heading right and Labour destroying itself on the far left, the gap in the centre is getting bigger and bigger. It won't happen quickly, but the LDs must fancy their chances over the longer term of filling it.

    But weirdly they're not. Stubbornly stuck on 10%. The coalition casts a long shadow and Labour still present by far the most likely alternative
    the Tories aren't turning right. That's why the LD's are stuck on 10%. There are right wing nuts in the Tories but Labour has been taken over by the left and are stuffed.

    The Tories are turning right - that's why UKIPers are returning. But a right wing party that waves the flag will always do better than a left wing party that spurns it - especially when it is led by such a grotesque incompetent as Corbyn. Once the far left's hegemony in Labour is sealed, a lot of centre leftists giving it one last chance will walk away completely.

    err no IMHO. If Kippers are returning (and not all kippers are Tories) its because there is no UKIP party left. Its a shell.
    It suits you to paint the Tories as right wing, even if its untrue, Mrs May is centreist.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,638
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    CD13 said:

    Ukip no longer have a purpose. The LDs do - they survive to howl at the moon as they attempt to subvert democracy.

    So sad. A once great party reduced to this as their raison d'etre.

    Oh, and greetings from sunny Sydney.

    It is perfectly democratic to try to garner support for a change in Britains policy towards our European neighbours.

    I am less convinced by Farrons support for Trump's "Wag the Dog" conversion to bombing Assad. America is now bombing both sides in the Syrian Civil War, with no plan as to what to do next.

    Credit where it is due, Nuttall has condemned the bombing, alongside Jezza and the Green Party.

    With the Tories heading right and Labour destroying itself on the far left, the gap in the centre is getting bigger and bigger. It won't happen quickly, but the LDs must fancy their chances over the longer term of filling it.

    But weirdly they're not. Stubbornly stuck on 10%. The coalition casts a long shadow and Labour still present by far the most likely alternative

    Labour is killing itself. At some stage there will be a tipping point when all but the most obstinate far leftist will realise there is no way back for the party. Right now, a lot of people on the centre left are betting that Corbyn will be go before the next GE. But with McCluskey set to be strengthened by re-election, that is now looking a lot less likely. I do think Farron is a problem for the LDs, but he is not in insurmountable one.

    The LDs are very, very far from providing a left wing alternative. More Plaid Cymru than SNP. The quickest route to alternative is still to fix Labour.

    Sadly, I fear that horse has bolted. The Livingstone whitewash, followed by Corbyn's Stop the War Lite reaction to the Syrian bombing and McCluskey's re-election have confirmed that it is all over for Labour.

    The Tories have power for the next 10 years. Being Tories they will move ever rightwards. That will open the way for a new centrist party, that is likely to be called the Liberal Democrats, to challenge for power in 2025.

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Jonathan said:

    CD13 said:

    Ukip no longer have a purpose. The LDs do - they survive to howl at the moon as they attempt to subvert democracy.

    So sad. A once great party reduced to this as their raison d'etre.

    Oh, and greetings from sunny Sydney.

    It is perfectly democratic to try to garner support for a change in Britains policy towards our European neighbours.

    I am less convinced by Farrons support for Trump's "Wag the Dog" conversion to bombing Assad. America is now bombing both sides in the Syrian Civil War, with no plan as to what to do next.

    Credit where it is due, Nuttall has condemned the bombing, alongside Jezza and the Green Party.

    With the Tories heading right and Labour destroying itself on the far left, the gap in the centre is getting bigger and bigger. It won't happen quickly, but the LDs must fancy their chances over the longer term of filling it.

    But weirdly they're not. Stubbornly stuck on 10%. The coalition casts a long shadow and Labour still present by far the most likely alternative
    My instinct is that whereas the polls overestimated the LibDems in the years up to the 2015 GE by 2-4 points they are now under estimating them in the same range. The evidence of most by-elections would seem to confirm a level of uptick.

    Clearly the May elections will give us a broader appreciation from a much larger pool of voters.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,638

    Jonathan said:

    CD13 said:

    Ukip no longer have a purpose. The LDs do - they survive to howl at the moon as they attempt to subvert democracy.

    So sad. A once great party reduced to this as their raison d'etre.

    Oh, and greetings from sunny Sydney.

    It is perfectly democratic to try to garner support for a change in Britains policy towards our European neighbours.

    I am less convinced by Farrons support for Trump's "Wag the Dog" conversion to bombing Assad. America is now bombing both sides in the Syrian Civil War, with no plan as to what to do next.

    Credit where it is due, Nuttall has condemned the bombing, alongside Jezza and the Green Party.

    With the Tories heading right and Labour destroying itself on the far left, the gap in the centre is getting bigger and bigger. It won't happen quickly, but the LDs must fancy their chances over the longer term of filling it.

    But weirdly they're not. Stubbornly stuck on 10%. The coalition casts a long shadow and Labour still present by far the most likely alternative
    the Tories aren't turning right. That's why the LD's are stuck on 10%. There are right wing nuts in the Tories but Labour has been taken over by the left and are stuffed.

    The Tories are turning right - that's why UKIPers are returning. But a right wing party that waves the flag will always do better than a left wing party that spurns it - especially when it is led by such a grotesque incompetent as Corbyn. Once the far left's hegemony in Labour is sealed, a lot of centre leftists giving it one last chance will walk away completely.

    err no IMHO. If Kippers are returning (and not all kippers are Tories) its because there is no UKIP party left. Its a shell.
    It suits you to paint the Tories as right wing, even if its untrue, Mrs May is centreist.

    In what way?

  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Blukip is definitely a thing now. Not sure what's in it for the Tories.

    Reabsorbing the purple frothers protects the right flank, and is something entirely in keeping with where the Tories sympathies lie.
    Sympathy maybe. I always thought it served the Tories very well, almost to the point of genius, to outsource its Tea Party fringe.
    The lunatics have now taken over the asylum.

    Exhibit one: BoJo as Foreign Secretary pulling out of meetings in Moscow. This is very much the time to open communications with Russia, not cut them off. If anyone can put pressure on Assad, it is Putin.
    Johnson goes to Moscow: private meeting followed by communique about frank and forthright exchange of views. Johnson cancels trip: 24 hours of world headlines.

    Which puts more pressure on Putin?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,638
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Blukip is definitely a thing now. Not sure what's in it for the Tories.

    Reabsorbing the purple frothers protects the right flank, and is something entirely in keeping with where the Tories sympathies lie.
    Sympathy maybe. I always thought it served the Tories very well, almost to the point of genius, to outsource its Tea Party fringe.
    The lunatics have now taken over the asylum.

    Exhibit one: BoJo as Foreign Secretary pulling out of meetings in Moscow. This is very much the time to open communications with Russia, not cut them off. If anyone can put pressure on Assad, it is Putin.
    That was Obama's approach, was it not? Given what happened last week, the time for soft power is surely over.

    Johnson pulling out of the Moscow trip is a demonstration of no power.

    But why would we want to do our own thing in such circumstances? Clearly the Americans are interested in this situation and whether we like it or not realistically we can only offer our point of view and support/opposition as we see fit. What would the critics of Mr Johnson rather he was doing differently to what the Americans are doing?

    Exactly. The UK is an irrelevance in all of this. The only thing we have had for years now is soft power and we have decided to dilute that. It is not replaceable with anything else, though.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,605

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    CD13 said:

    Ukip no longer have a purpose. The LDs do - they survive to howl at the moon as they attempt to subvert democracy.

    So sad. A once great party reduced to this as their raison d'etre.

    Oh, and greetings from sunny Sydney.

    It is perfectly democratic to try to garner support for a change in Britains policy towards our European neighbours.

    I am less convinced by Farrons support for Trump's "Wag the Dog" conversion to bombing Assad. America is now bombing both sides in the Syrian Civil War, with no plan as to what to do next.

    Credit where it is due, Nuttall has condemned the bombing, alongside Jezza and the Green Party.

    With the Tories heading right and Labour destroying itself on the far left, the gap in the centre is getting bigger and bigger. It won't happen quickly, but the LDs must fancy their chances over the longer term of filling it.

    But weirdly they're not. Stubbornly stuck on 10%. The coalition casts a long shadow and Labour still present by far the most likely alternative

    Labour is killing itself. At some stage there will be a tipping point when all but the most obstinate far leftist will realise there is no way back for the party. Right now, a lot of people on the centre left are betting that Corbyn will be go before the next GE. But with McCluskey set to be strengthened by re-election, that is now looking a lot less likely. I do think Farron is a problem for the LDs, but he is not in insurmountable one.

    The LDs are very, very far from providing a left wing alternative. More Plaid Cymru than SNP. The quickest route to alternative is still to fix Labour.

    Sadly, I fear that horse has bolted. The Livingstone whitewash, followed by Corbyn's Stop the War Lite reaction to the Syrian bombing and McCluskey's re-election have confirmed that it is all over for Labour.

    The Tories have power for the next 10 years. Being Tories they will move ever rightwards. That will open the way for a new centrist party, that is likely to be called the Liberal Democrats, to challenge for power in 2025.

    It has been all over for Labour many, many times before. It is possible that this is it and that Scotland will happen in England. But the LibDems are showing absolutely zero potential at the moment as a viable alternative government. None.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,605

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Blukip is definitely a thing now. Not sure what's in it for the Tories.

    Reabsorbing the purple frothers protects the right flank, and is something entirely in keeping with where the Tories sympathies lie.
    Sympathy maybe. I always thought it served the Tories very well, almost to the point of genius, to outsource its Tea Party fringe.
    The lunatics have now taken over the asylum.

    Exhibit one: BoJo as Foreign Secretary pulling out of meetings in Moscow. This is very much the time to open communications with Russia, not cut them off. If anyone can put pressure on Assad, it is Putin.
    That was Obama's approach, was it not? Given what happened last week, the time for soft power is surely over.

    Johnson pulling out of the Moscow trip is a demonstration of no power.

    But why would we want to do our own thing in such circumstances? Clearly the Americans are interested in this situation and whether we like it or not realistically we can only offer our point of view and support/opposition as we see fit. What would the critics of Mr Johnson rather he was doing differently to what the Americans are doing?

    Exactly. The UK is an irrelevance in all of this. The only thing we have had for years now is soft power and we have decided to dilute that. It is not replaceable with anything else, though.

    Cyprus?
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    CD13 said:

    Ukip no longer have a purpose. The LDs do - they survive to howl at the moon as they attempt to subvert democracy.

    So sad. A once great party reduced to this as their raison d'etre.

    Oh, and greetings from sunny Sydney.

    It is perfectly democratic to try to garner support for a change in Britains policy towards our European neighbours.

    I am less convinced by Farrons support for Trump's "Wag the Dog" conversion to bombing Assad. America is now bombing both sides in the Syrian Civil War, with no plan as to what to do next.

    Credit where it is due, Nuttall has condemned the bombing, alongside Jezza and the Green Party.

    With the Tories heading right and Labour destroying itself on the far left, the gap in the centre is getting bigger and bigger. It won't happen quickly, but the LDs must fancy their chances over the longer term of filling it.

    But weirdly they're not. Stubbornly stuck on 10%. The coalition casts a long shadow and Labour still present by far the most likely alternative

    Labour is killing itself. At some stage there will be a tipping point when all but the most obstinate far leftist will realise there is no way back for the party. Right now, a lot of people on the centre left are betting that Corbyn will be go before the next GE. But with McCluskey set to be strengthened by re-election, that is now looking a lot less likely. I do think Farron is a problem for the LDs, but he is not in insurmountable one.

    The LDs are very, very far from providing a left wing alternative. More Plaid Cymru than SNP. The quickest route to alternative is still to fix Labour.

    Sadly, I fear that horse has bolted. The Livingstone whitewash, followed by Corbyn's Stop the War Lite reaction to the Syrian bombing and McCluskey's re-election have confirmed that it is all over for Labour.

    The Tories have power for the next 10 years. Being Tories they will move ever rightwards. That will open the way for a new centrist party, that is likely to be called the Liberal Democrats, to challenge for power in 2025.

    I'm not sure the Tories are moving right or even what it means, but if they are it reflects the growing view of an electorate that is tired of mass immigration, a bloated public sector, wasteful Foreign Aid and crackpot idealists in the Labour Party.

    I wouldn't vote Conservative but nobody is offering an effective alternative.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,152

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Blukip is definitely a thing now. Not sure what's in it for the Tories.

    Reabsorbing the purple frothers protects the right flank, and is something entirely in keeping with where the Tories sympathies lie.
    Sympathy maybe. I always thought it served the Tories very well, almost to the point of genius, to outsource its Tea Party fringe.
    The lunatics have now taken over the asylum.

    Exhibit one: BoJo as Foreign Secretary pulling out of meetings in Moscow. This is very much the time to open communications with Russia, not cut them off. If anyone can put pressure on Assad, it is Putin.
    That was Obama's approach, was it not? Given what happened last week, the time for soft power is surely over.

    Johnson pulling out of the Moscow trip is a demonstration of no power.

    But why would we want to do our own thing in such circumstances? Clearly the Americans are interested in this situation and whether we like it or not realistically we can only offer our point of view and support/opposition as we see fit. What would the critics of Mr Johnson rather he was doing differently to what the Americans are doing?

    Exactly. The UK is an irrelevance in all of this. The only thing we have had for years now is soft power and we have decided to dilute that. It is not replaceable with anything else, though.

    And? When America decides to get involved everyone else is an irrelevance, that's a fact of life.

    I suggested a couple of days ago that if we want to show the Russians that we're really angry with them, we should boycott the 2018 World Cup.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    Jonathan said:

    CD13 said:

    Ukip no longer have a purpose. The LDs do - they survive to howl at the moon as they attempt to subvert democracy.

    So sad. A once great party reduced to this as their raison d'etre.

    Oh, and greetings from sunny Sydney.

    It is perfectly democratic to try to garner support for a change in Britains policy towards our European neighbours.

    I am less convinced by Farrons support for Trump's "Wag the Dog" conversion to bombing Assad. America is now bombing both sides in the Syrian Civil War, with no plan as to what to do next.

    Credit where it is due, Nuttall has condemned the bombing, alongside Jezza and the Green Party.

    With the Tories heading right and Labour destroying itself on the far left, the gap in the centre is getting bigger and bigger. It won't happen quickly, but the LDs must fancy their chances over the longer term of filling it.

    But weirdly they're not. Stubbornly stuck on 10%. The coalition casts a long shadow and Labour still present by far the most likely alternative
    the Tories aren't turning right. That's why the LD's are stuck on 10%. There are right wing nuts in the Tories but Labour has been taken over by the left and are stuffed.

    The Tories are turning right - that's why UKIPers are returning. But a right wing party that waves the flag will always do better than a left wing party that spurns it - especially when it is led by such a grotesque incompetent as Corbyn. Once the far left's hegemony in Labour is sealed, a lot of centre leftists giving it one last chance will walk away completely.

    err no IMHO. If Kippers are returning (and not all kippers are Tories) its because there is no UKIP party left. Its a shell.
    It suits you to paint the Tories as right wing, even if its untrue, Mrs May is centreist.

    In what way?

    because you are fish out of water, floundering, not knowing how to help your party and stop it destroying itself . So you attack the Tories, its a form of lashing out in utter desperation.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,638
    ydoethur said:

    saddened said:

    What makes her think the Conservatives, would want or need a third rater like her?
    Observation of Liam Fox's performance in government?

    If the likes of Liam Fox, Andrea Leadsom, Priti Patel, Amber Rudd, Elizabeth Truss, Sajid Javid, Boris Johnson, David Davis and Chris Grayling can sit in the cabinet, why not Mark Reckless and Diane James?

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,638

    Jonathan said:

    CD13 said:

    Ukip no longer have a purpose. The LDs do - they survive to howl at the moon as they attempt to subvert democracy.

    So sad. A once great party reduced to this as their raison d'etre.

    Oh, and greetings from sunny Sydney.

    It is perfectly democratic to try to garner support for a change in Britains policy towards our European neighbours.

    I am less convinced by Farrons support for Trump's "Wag the Dog" conversion to bombing Assad. America is now bombing both sides in the Syrian Civil War, with no plan as to what to do next.

    Credit where it is due, Nuttall has condemned the bombing, alongside Jezza and the Green Party.

    With the Tories heading right and Labour destroying itself on the far left, the gap in the centre is getting bigger and bigger. It won't happen quickly, but the LDs must fancy their chances over the longer term of filling it.

    But weirdly they're not. Stubbornly stuck on 10%. The coalition casts a long shadow and Labour still present by far the most likely alternative
    the Tories aren't turning right. That's why the LD's are stuck on 10%. There are right wing nuts in the Tories but Labour has been taken over by the left and are stuffed.

    The Tories are turning right - that's why UKIPers are returning. But a right wing party that waves the flag will always do better than a left wing party that spurns it - especially when it is led by such a grotesque incompetent as Corbyn. Once the far left's hegemony in Labour is sealed, a lot of centre leftists giving it one last chance will walk away completely.

    err no IMHO. If Kippers are returning (and not all kippers are Tories) its because there is no UKIP party left. Its a shell.
    It suits you to paint the Tories as right wing, even if its untrue, Mrs May is centreist.

    In what way?

    because you are fish out of water, floundering, not knowing how to help your party and stop it destroying itself . So you attack the Tories, its a form of lashing out in utter desperation.

    Sorry, I am afraid that does not demonstrate Theresa May is a centrist. A centrist would not have backed down on taxation of the self-employed the moment the Tory press cried foul. A centrist would have slapped down Michael Howard for implying we would go to war over Gibraltar. A centrist would not be contemplating walking away form Brexit talks and creating a low tax, low regulation, small state offshore island.

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    CD13 said:

    Ukip no longer have a purpose. The LDs do - they survive to howl at the moon as they attempt to subvert democracy.

    So sad. A once great party reduced to this as their raison d'etre.

    Oh, and greetings from sunny Sydney.

    It is perfectly democratic to try to garner support for a change in Britains policy towards our European neighbours.

    I am less convinced by Farrons support for Trump's "Wag the Dog" conversion to bombing Assad. America is now bombing both sides in the Syrian Civil War, with no plan as to what to do next.

    Credit where it is due, Nuttall has condemned the bombing, alongside Jezza and the Green Party.

    With the Tories heading right and Labour destroying itself on the far left, the gap in the centre is getting bigger and bigger. It won't happen quickly, but the LDs must fancy their chances over the longer term of filling it.

    But weirdly they're not. Stubbornly stuck on 10%. The coalition casts a long shadow and Labour still present by far the most likely alternative

    Labour is killing itself. At some stage there will be a tipping point when all but the most obstinate far leftist will realise there is no way back for the party. Right now, a lot of people on the centre left are betting that Corbyn will be go before the next GE. But with McCluskey set to be strengthened by re-election, that is now looking a lot less likely. I do think Farron is a problem for the LDs, but he is not in insurmountable one.

    The LDs are very, very far from providing a left wing alternative. More Plaid Cymru than SNP. The quickest route to alternative is still to fix Labour.

    Sadly, I fear that horse has bolted. The Livingstone whitewash, followed by Corbyn's Stop the War Lite reaction to the Syrian bombing and McCluskey's re-election have confirmed that it is all over for Labour.

    The Tories have power for the next 10 years. Being Tories they will move ever rightwards. That will open the way for a new centrist party, that is likely to be called the Liberal Democrats, to challenge for power in 2025.

    Opposition to bombing the Middle East may be a little controversial now, but in pretty much every situation of the last 20 years has been the right call, and popular in the end.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    CD13 said:

    Ukip no longer have a purpose. The LDs do - they survive to howl at the moon as they attempt to subvert democracy.

    So sad. A once great party reduced to this as their raison d'etre.

    Oh, and greetings from sunny Sydney.

    It is perfectly democratic to try to garner support for a change in Britains policy towards our European neighbours.

    I am less convinced by Farrons support for Trump's "Wag the Dog" conversion to bombing Assad. America is now bombing both sides in the Syrian Civil War, with no plan as to what to do next.

    Credit where it is due, Nuttall has condemned the bombing, alongside Jezza and the Green Party.

    With the Tories heading right and Labour destroying itself on the far left, the gap in the centre is getting bigger and bigger. It won't happen quickly, but the LDs must fancy their chances over the longer term of filling it.

    But weirdly they're not. Stubbornly stuck on 10%. The coalition casts a long shadow and Labour still present by far the most likely alternative

    Labour is killing itself. At some stage there will be a tipping point when all but the most obstinate far leftist will realise there is no way back for the party. Right now, a lot of people on the centre left are betting that Corbyn will be go before the next GE. But with McCluskey set to be strengthened by re-election, that is now looking a lot less likely. I do think Farron is a problem for the LDs, but he is not in insurmountable one.

    The LDs are very, very far from providing a left wing alternative. More Plaid Cymru than SNP. The quickest route to alternative is still to fix Labour.

    Sadly, I fear that horse has bolted. The Livingstone whitewash, followed by Corbyn's Stop the War Lite reaction to the Syrian bombing and McCluskey's re-election have confirmed that it is all over for Labour.

    The Tories have power for the next 10 years. Being Tories they will move ever rightwards. That will open the way for a new centrist party, that is likely to be called the Liberal Democrats, to challenge for power in 2025.

    It is all over for you for Labour but I think there is a lot more people in the party who will be willing to fight and not be so defeatist.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994

    Jonathan said:

    CD13 said:

    Ukip no longer have a purpose. The LDs do - they survive to howl at the moon as they attempt to subvert democracy.

    So sad. A once great party reduced to this as their raison d'etre.

    Oh, and greetings from sunny Sydney.

    It is perfectly democratic to try to garner support for a change in Britains policy towards our European neighbours.

    I am less convinced by Farrons support for Trump's "Wag the Dog" conversion to bombing Assad. America is now bombing both sides in the Syrian Civil War, with no plan as to what to do next.

    Credit where it is due, Nuttall has condemned the bombing, alongside Jezza and the Green Party.

    With the Tories heading right and Labour destroying itself on the far left, the gap in the centre is getting bigger and bigger. It won't happen quickly, but the LDs must fancy their chances over the longer term of filling it.

    But weirdly they're not. Stubbornly stuck on 10%. The coalition casts a long shadow and Labour still present by far the most likely alternative
    the Tories aren't turning right. That's why the LD's are stuck on 10%. There are right wing nuts in the Tories but Labour has been taken over by the left and are stuffed.

    The Tories are turning right - that's why UKIPers are returning. But a right wing party that waves the flag will always do better than a left wing party that spurns it - especially when it is led by such a grotesque incompetent as Corbyn. Once the far left's hegemony in Labour is sealed, a lot of centre leftists giving it one last chance will walk away completely.

    err no IMHO. If Kippers are returning (and not all kippers are Tories) its because there is no UKIP party left. Its a shell.
    It suits you to paint the Tories as right wing, even if its untrue, Mrs May is centreist.
    I'm not convinced. UKIP completing their task is true, but they wouldn't be flocking back, those that used to be Tories, unless they felt not only was ukip done but that the Tories were 'fixed'.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,605

    Jonathan said:

    CD13 said:

    Ukip no longer have a purpose. The LDs do - they survive to howl at the moon as they attempt to subvert democracy.

    So sad. A once great party reduced to this as their raison d'etre.

    Oh, and greetings from sunny Sydney.

    It is perfectly democratic to try to garner support for a change in Britains policy towards our European neighbours.

    I am less convinced by Farrons support for Trump's "Wag the Dog" conversion to bombing Assad. America is now bombing both sides in the Syrian Civil War, with no plan as to what to do next.

    Credit where it is due, Nuttall has condemned the bombing, alongside Jezza and the Green Party.

    With the Tories heading right and Labour destroying itself on the far left, the gap in the centre is getting bigger and bigger. It won't happen quickly, but the LDs must fancy their chances over the longer term of filling it.

    But weirdly they're not. Stubbornly stuck on 10%. The coalition casts a long shadow and Labour still present by far the most likely alternative
    the Tories aren't turning right. That's why the LD's are stuck on 10%. There are right wing nuts in the Tories but Labour has been taken over by the left and are stuffed.

    The Tories are turning right - that's why UKIPers are returning. But a right wing party that waves the flag will always do better than a left wing party that spurns it - especially when it is led by such a grotesque incompetent as Corbyn. Once the far left's hegemony in Labour is sealed, a lot of centre leftists giving it one last chance will walk away completely.

    err no IMHO. If Kippers are returning (and not all kippers are Tories) its because there is no UKIP party left. Its a shell.
    It suits you to paint the Tories as right wing, even if its untrue, Mrs May is centreist.

    In what way?

    because you are fish out of water, floundering, not knowing how to help your party and stop it destroying itself . So you attack the Tories, its a form of lashing out in utter desperation.
    Oh come on. A ex party leader joining a rival is a biggish story that asks a few questions. Blukip is real. The Tories are expanding to the right ,moving the centre of mass. The question is, what does it mean long-term
  • tlg86 said:

    Btw, what an opportunistic shit Tim Farron is.

    I could have told you that in 1999
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107
    "A centrist would not be contemplating walking away form Brexit talks and creating a low tax, low regulation, small state offshore island."

    I take back what I said about May, if what this poster has said is true she seems ideal. However it isn't true so I won't be supporting her.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,152
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    CD13 said:

    Ukip no longer have a purpose. The LDs do - they survive to howl at the moon as they attempt to subvert democracy.

    So sad. A once great party reduced to this as their raison d'etre.

    Oh, and greetings from sunny Sydney.

    It is perfectly democratic to try to garner support for a change in Britains policy towards our European neighbours.

    I am less convinced by Farrons support for Trump's "Wag the Dog" conversion to bombing Assad. America is now bombing both sides in the Syrian Civil War, with no plan as to what to do next.

    Credit where it is due, Nuttall has condemned the bombing, alongside Jezza and the Green Party.

    With the Tories heading right and Labour destroying itself on the far left, the gap in the centre is getting bigger and bigger. It won't happen quickly, but the LDs must fancy their chances over the longer term of filling it.

    But weirdly they're not. Stubbornly stuck on 10%. The coalition casts a long shadow and Labour still present by far the most likely alternative
    the Tories aren't turning right. That's why the LD's are stuck on 10%. There are right wing nuts in the Tories but Labour has been taken over by the left and are stuffed.

    The Tories are turning right - that's why UKIPers are returning. But a right wing party that waves the flag will always do better than a left wing party that spurns it - especially when it is led by such a grotesque incompetent as Corbyn. Once the far left's hegemony in Labour is sealed, a lot of centre leftists giving it one last chance will walk away completely.

    err no IMHO. If Kippers are returning (and not all kippers are Tories) its because there is no UKIP party left. Its a shell.
    It suits you to paint the Tories as right wing, even if its untrue, Mrs May is centreist.

    In what way?

    because you are fish out of water, floundering, not knowing how to help your party and stop it destroying itself . So you attack the Tories, its a form of lashing out in utter desperation.
    Oh come on. A ex party leader joining a rival is a biggish story that asks a few questions. Blukip is real. The Tories are expanding to the right ,moving the centre of mass. The question is, what does it mean long-term
    Not that I'm bothered by this but do you think the Tories should ban people who have been members of Ukip from joining their party in the same way Ukip banned ex members of the BNP/NF?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    CD13 said:

    Ukip no longer have a purpose. The LDs do - they survive to howl at the moon as they attempt to subvert democracy.

    So sad. A once great party reduced to this as their raison d'etre.

    Oh, and greetings from sunny Sydney.

    It is perfectly democratic to try to garner support for a change in Britains policy towards our European neighbours.

    I am less convinced by Farrons support for Trump's "Wag the Dog" conversion to bombing Assad. America is now bombing both sides in the Syrian Civil War, with no plan as to what to do next.

    Credit where it is due, Nuttall has condemned the bombing, alongside Jezza and the Green Party.

    With they, but the LDs must fancy their chances over the longer term of filling it.

    But weirdly they're not. Stubbornly stuck on 10%. The coalition casts a long shadow and Labour still present by far the most likely alternative

    Labour is killing itself. At some stage there will be a tipping point when all but the most obstinate far leftist will realise there is no way back for the party. Right now, a lot of people on the centre left are betting that Corbyn will be go before the next GE. But with McCluskey set to be strengthened by re-election, that is now looking a lot less likely. I do think Farron is a problem for the LDs, but he is not in insurmountable one.

    The LDs are very, very far from providing a left wing alternative. More Plaid Cymru than SNP. The quickest route to alternative is still to fix Labour.

    Sadly, I fear that horse has bolted. The Livingstone whitewash, followed by Corbyn's Stop the War Lite reaction to the Syrian bombing and McCluskey's re-election have confirmed that it is all over for Labour.

    The Tories have power for the next 10 years. Being Tories they will move ever rightwards. That will open the way for a new centrist party, that is likely to be called the Liberal Democrats, to challenge for power in 2025.

    It has been all over for Labour many, many times before. It is possible that this is it and that Scotland will happen in England. But the LibDems are showing absolutely zero potential at the moment as a viable alternative government. None.
    That's the cold hard truth. I'd like them to be reviving at the least, and there's green shoots coming out of the locals, but Richmond aside there's not much to persuade that they've hit a shot in parliamentaries, let alone to replace lab.
  • tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Blukip is definitely a thing now. Not sure what's in it for the Tories.

    Reabsorbing the purple frothers protects the right flank, and is something entirely in keeping with where the Tories sympathies lie.
    Sympathy maybe. I always thought it served the Tories very well, almost to the point of genius, to outsource its Tea Party fringe.
    The lunatics have now taken over the asylum.

    Exhibit one: BoJo as Foreign Secretary pulling out of meetings in Moscow. This is very much the time to open communications with Russia, not cut them off. If anyone can put pressure on Assad, it is Putin.
    That was Obama's approach, was it not? Given what happened last week, the time for soft power is surely over.

    Johnson pulling out of the Moscow trip is a demonstration of no power.

    But why would we want to do our own thing in such circumstances? Clearly the Americans are interested in this situation and whether we like it or not realistically we can only offer our point of view and support/opposition as we see fit. What would the critics of Mr Johnson rather he was doing differently to what the Americans are doing?

    Exactly. The UK is an irrelevance in all of this. The only thing we have had for years now is soft power and we have decided to dilute that. It is not replaceable with anything else, though.

    And? When America decides to get involved everyone else is an irrelevance, that's a fact of life.

    I suggested a couple of days ago that if we want to show the Russians that we're really angry with them, we should boycott the 2018 World Cup.
    We will boycott it after the group games
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,498
    Jonathan said:

    Oh come on. A ex party leader joining a rival is a biggish story that asks a few questions. Blukip is real. The Tories are expanding to the right ,moving the centre of mass. The question is, what does it mean long-term

    Here's a recent example of centrist Blukip thinking. How many Tory MPs agree?

    https://twitter.com/DianeJamesMEP/status/850011897751642112
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited April 2017

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Blukip is definitely a thing now. Not sure what's in it for the Tories.

    Reabsorbing the purple frothers protects the right flank, and is something entirely in keeping with where the Tories sympathies lie.
    Sympathy maybe. I always thought it served the Tories very well, almost to the point of genius, to outsource its Tea Party fringe.
    The lunatics have now taken over the asylum.

    Exhibit one: BoJo as Foreign Secretary pulling out of meetings in Moscow. This is very much the time to open communications with Russia, not cut them off. If anyone can put pressure on Assad, it is Putin.
    That was Obama's approach, was it not? Given what happened last week, the time for soft power is surely over.

    Johnson pulling out of the Moscow trip is a demonstration of no power.

    But why would we want to do our own thing in such circumstances? Clearly the Americans are interested in this situation and whether we like it or not realistically we can only offer our point of view and support/opposition as we see fit. What would the critics of Mr Johnson rather he was doing differently to what the Americans are doing?

    Exactly. The UK is an irrelevance in all of this. The only thing we have had for years now is soft power and we have decided to dilute that. It is not replaceable with anything else, though.

    And? When America decides to get involved everyone else is an irrelevance, that's a fact of life.

    I suggested a couple of days ago that if we want to show the Russians that we're really angry with them, we should boycott the 2018 World Cup.
    We will boycott it after the group games
    Nah, Paul Nuttall will be winning the tournament Golden Boot.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994

    Jonathan said:

    Oh come on. A ex party leader joining a rival is a biggish story that asks a few questions. Blukip is real. The Tories are expanding to the right ,moving the centre of mass. The question is, what does it mean long-term

    Here's a recent example of centrist Blukip thinking. How many Tory MPs agree?

    https://twitter.com/DianeJamesMEP/status/850011897751642112
    Given there were plenty of Tories who acted like kippers but didn't have the balls of Carswell and reckless, I would think quite a few.
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    CD13 said:

    Ukip no longer have a purpose. The LDs do - they survive to howl at the moon as they attempt to subvert democracy.

    So sad. A once great party reduced to this as their raison d'etre.

    Oh, and greetings from sunny Sydney.

    It is perfectly democratic to try to garner support for a change in Britains policy towards our European neighbours.

    I am less convinced by Farrons support for Trump's "Wag the Dog" conversion to bombing Assad. America is now bombing both sides in the Syrian Civil War, with no plan as to what to do next.

    Credit where it is due, Nuttall has condemned the bombing, alongside Jezza and the Green Party.

    With the Tories heading right and Labour destroying itself on the far left, the gap in the centre is getting bigger and bigger. It won't happen quickly, but the LDs must fancy their chances over the longer term of filling it.

    But weirdly they're not. Stubbornly stuck on 10%. The coalition casts a long shadow and Labour still present by far the most likely alternative

    Labour is killing itself. At some stage there will be a tipping point when all but the most obstinate far leftist will realise there is no way back for the party. Right now, a lot of people on the centre left are betting that Corbyn will be go before the next GE. But with McCluskey set to be strengthened by re-election, that is now looking a lot less likely. I do think Farron is a problem for the LDs, but he is not in insurmountable one.

    The LDs are very, very far from providing a left wing alternative. More Plaid Cymru than SNP. The quickest route to alternative is still to fix Labour.

    Sadly, I fear that horse has bolted. The Livingstone whitewash, followed by Corbyn's Stop the War Lite reaction to the Syrian bombing and McCluskey's re-election have confirmed that it is all over for Labour.

    The Tories have power for the next 10 years. Being Tories they will move ever rightwards. That will open the way for a new centrist party, that is likely to be called the Liberal Democrats, to challenge for power in 2025.

    I'd agree with that, and could perhaps be persuaded to vote LD in the future, but not while they want to dive straight back into the full throttle EU. That would be a big stumbling block for a lot of people like me, I guess.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,280
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    CD13 said:

    Ukip no longer have a purpose. The LDs do - they survive to howl at the moon as they attempt to subvert democracy.

    So sad. A once great party reduced to this as their raison d'etre.

    Oh, and greetings from sunny Sydney.

    It is perfectly democratic to try to garner support for a change in Britains policy towards our European neighbours.

    I am less convinced by Farrons support for Trump's "Wag the Dog" conversion to bombing Assad. America is now bombing both sides in the Syrian Civil War, with no plan as to what to do next.

    Credit where it is due, Nuttall has condemned the bombing, alongside Jezza and the Green Party.

    With the Tories heading right and Labour destroying itself on the far left, the gap in the centre is getting bigger and bigger. It won't happen quickly, but the LDs must fancy their chances over the longer term of filling it.

    But weirdly they're not. Stubbornly stuck on 10%. The coalition casts a long shadow and Labour still present by far the most likely alternative
    the Tories aren't turning right. That's why the LD's are stuck on 10%. There are right wing nuts in the Tories but Labour has been taken over by the left and are stuffed.

    The Tories are turning right - that's why UKIPers are returning. But a right wing party that waves the flag will always do better than a left wing party that spurns it - especially when it is led by such a grotesque incompetent as Corbyn. Once the far left's hegemony in Labour is sealed, a lot of centre leftists giving it one last chance will walk away completely.

    err no IMHO. If Kippers are returning (and not all kippers are Tories) its because there is no UKIP party left. Its a shell.
    It suits you to paint the Tories as right wing, even if its untrue, Mrs May is centreist.

    In what way?

    because you are fish out of water, floundering, not knowing how to help your party and stop it destroying itself . So you attack the Tories, its a form of lashing out in utter desperation.
    Oh come on. A ex party leader joining a rival is a biggish story that asks a few questions. Blukip is real. The Tories are expanding to the right ,moving the centre of mass. The question is, what does it mean long-term
    In the long term? The Tories get back to the level of support they had in the Fifties, but from different sections of the electorate.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,638

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    CD13 said:

    Ukip no longer have a purpose. The LDs do - they survive to howl at the moon as they attempt to subvert democracy.

    So sad. A once great party reduced to this as their raison d'etre.

    Oh, and greetings from sunny Sydney.

    It is perfectly democratic to try to garner support for a change in Britains policy towards our European neighbours.

    I am less convinced by Farrons support for Trump's "Wag the Dog" conversion to bombing Assad. America is now bombing both sides in the Syrian Civil War, with no plan as to what to do next.

    Credit where it is due, Nuttall has condemned the bombing, alongside Jezza and the Green Party.

    With the Tories heading right and Labour destroying itself on the far left, the gap in the centre is getting bigger and bigger. It won't happen quickly, but the LDs must fancy their chances over the longer term of filling it.

    But weirdly they're not. Stubbornly stuck on 10%. The coalition casts a long shadow and Labour still present by far the most likely alternative

    Labour one.

    The LDs are very, very far from providing a left wing alternative. More Plaid Cymru than SNP. The quickest route to alternative is still to fix Labour.

    Sadly, I fear that horse has bolted. The Livingstone whitewash, followed by Corbyn's Stop the War Lite reaction to the Syrian bombing and McCluskey's re-election have confirmed that it is all over for Labour.

    The Tories have power for the next 10 years. Being Tories they will move ever rightwards. That will open the way for a new centrist party, that is likely to be called the Liberal Democrats, to challenge for power in 2025.

    Opposition to bombing the Middle East may be a little controversial now, but in pretty much every situation of the last 20 years has been the right call, and popular in the end.

    In his statement Corbyn singularly failed to condemn Assad for the chemical attack and also said that Russia should have a veto over all action designed to rein in his use of such weapons on civilians. It was Stop the War Lite. It is not a popular position and never will be.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,638
    Yorkcity said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    CD13 said:

    Ukip no longer have a purpose. The LDs do - they survive to howl at the moon as they attempt to subvert democracy.

    So sad. A once great party reduced to this as their raison d'etre.

    Oh, and greetings from sunny Sydney.

    It is perfectly democratic to try to garner support for a change in Britains policy towards our European neighbours.

    I am less convinced by Farrons support for Trump's "Wag the Dog" conversion to bombing Assad. America is now bombing both sides in the Syrian Civil War, with no plan as to what to do next.

    Credit where it is due, Nuttall has condemned the bombing, alongside Jezza and the Green Party.

    With the Tories heading right and Labour destroying itself on the far left, the gap in the centre is getting bigger and bigger. It won't happen quickly, but the LDs must fancy their chances over the longer term of filling it.

    But weirdly they're not. Stubbornly stuck on 10%. The coalition casts a long shadow and Labour still present by far the most likely alternative

    Labour is killing itself. At some stage there will be a tipping point when all but the most obstinate far leftist will realise there is no way back for the party. Right now, a lot of people on the centre left are betting that Corbyn will be go before the next GE. But with McCluskey set to be strengthened by re-election, that is now looking a lot less likely. I do think Farron is a problem for the LDs, but he is not in insurmountable one.

    The LDs are very, very far from providing a left wing alternative. More Plaid Cymru than SNP. The quickest route to alternative is still to fix Labour.

    Sadly, I fear that horse has bolted. The Livingstone whitewash, followed by Corbyn's Stop the War Lite reaction to the Syrian bombing and McCluskey's re-election have confirmed that it is all over for Labour.

    The Tories have power for the next 10 years. Being Tories they will move ever rightwards. That will open the way for a new centrist party, that is likely to be called the Liberal Democrats, to challenge for power in 2025.

    It is all over for you for Labour but I think there is a lot more people in the party who will be willing to fight and not be so defeatist.

    Yep - there are still many, many good people in Labour. I hope they prevail and want desperately to be proved wrong.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    I thought we were often told that UKIP were to the left on several economic policies. To the right on social issues. Therefore I suggest it is simplistic twaddle to say UKIP members joining the Conservative party automatically push it right.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Sorry Morris Dancer .....

    But Paul Nuttall wins the Chinese Grand Prix ....

    What an effort after taking the Grand National yesterday and tonight going into the final round of the US Masters ten shots up .....

    Simply unbelievable .....
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,638
    philiph said:

    I thought we were often told that UKIP were to the left on several economic policies. To the right on social issues. Therefore I suggest it is simplistic twaddle to say UKIP members joining the Conservative party automatically push it right.

    It's the ex-Tories that are going back.



  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,638
    Sean_F said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    CD13 said:

    Ukip no longer have a purpose. The LDs do - they survive to howl at the moon as they attempt to subvert democracy.

    So sad. A once great party reduced to this as their raison d'etre.

    Oh, and greetings from sunny Sydney.

    It is perfectly democratic to try to garner support for a change in Britains policy towards our European neighbours.

    I am less convinced by Farrons support for Trump's "Wag the Dog" conversion to bombing Assad. America is now bombing both sides in the Syrian Civil War, with no plan as to what to do next.

    Credit where it is due, Nuttall has condemned the bombing, alongside Jezza and the Green Party.

    With the Tories heading right and Labour destroying itself on the far left, the gap in the centre is getting bigger and bigger. It won't happen quickly, but the LDs must fancy their chances over the longer term of filling it.

    But weirdly they're not. Stubbornly stuck on 10%. The coalition casts a long shadow and Labour still present by far the most likely alternative
    the Tories are stuffed.

    The Tories completely.

    err no IMHO. If Kippers are returning (and not all kippers are Tories) its because there is no UKIP party left. Its a shell.
    It suits you to paint the Tories as right wing, even if its untrue, Mrs May is centreist.

    In what way?

    because you are fish out of water, floundering, not knowing how to help your party and stop it destroying itself . So you attack the Tories, its a form of lashing out in utter desperation.
    Oh come on. A ex party leader joining a rival is a biggish story that asks a few questions. Blukip is real. The Tories are expanding to the right ,moving the centre of mass. The question is, what does it mean long-term
    In the long term? The Tories get back to the level of support they had in the Fifties, but from different sections of the electorate.

    I doubt that in the long term. Such a coalition would be far too hard to maintain. Interests are now too divergent.

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    CD13 said:

    Ukip no longer have a purpose. The LDs do - they survive to howl at the moon as they attempt to subvert democracy.

    So sad. A once great party reduced to this as their raison d'etre.

    Oh, and greetings from sunny Sydney.

    It is perfectly democratic to try to garner support for a change in Britains policy towards our European neighbours.

    I am less convinced by Farrons support for Trump's "Wag the Dog" conversion to bombing Assad. America is now bombing both sides in the Syrian Civil War, with no plan as to what to do next.

    Credit where it is due, Nuttall has condemned the bombing, alongside Jezza and the Green Party.

    With the Tories heading right and Labour destroying itself on the far left, the gap in the centre is getting bigger and bigger. It won't happen quickly, but the LDs must fancy their chances over the longer term of filling it.

    But weirdly they're not. Stubbornly stuck on 10%. The coalition casts a long shadow and Labour still present by far the most likely alternative

    Labour is killing itself.

    The LDs are very, very far from providing a left wing alternative. More Plaid Cymru than SNP. The quickest route to alternative is still to fix Labour.

    Sadly, I fear that horse has bolted. The Livingstone whitewash, followed by Corbyn's Stop the War Lite reaction to the Syrian bombing and McCluskey's re-election have confirmed that it is all over for Labour.

    The Tories have power for the next 10 years. Being Tories they will move ever rightwards. That will open the way for a new centrist party, that is likely to be called the Liberal Democrats, to challenge for power in 2025.

    I'd agree with that, and could perhaps be persuaded to vote LD in the future, but not while they want to dive straight back into the full throttle EU. That would be a big stumbling block for a lot of people like me, I guess.
    There is a good LD slate in the Leics county elections:

    http://m.leicestermercury.co.uk/lib-dems-set-out-to-end-tory-council-control/story-30256913-detail/story.html

    I would agree that re-entry as policy at the next election would bre a mistake, but a policy of joining the EEA is really quite sensible.

    Apart from anything else, I don't think that the EU would let us rejoinn for at least another generation.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,638

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    CD13 said:

    Ukip no longer have a purpose. The LDs do - they survive to howl at the moon as they attempt to subvert democracy.

    So sad. A once great party reduced to this as their raison d'etre.

    Oh, and greetings from sunny Sydney.

    It is perfectly democratic to try to garner support for a change in Britains policy towards our European neighbours.

    I am to what to do next.

    Credit where it is due, Nuttall has condemned the bombing, alongside Jezza and the Green Party.

    With filling it.

    But weirdly they're not. Stubbornly stuck on 10%. The coalition casts a long shadow and Labour still present by far the most likely alternative

    Labour is killing itself.

    The LDs are very, very far from providing a left wing alternative. More Plaid Cymru than SNP. The quickest route to alternative is still to fix Labour.

    Sadly, I fear that horse has bolted. The Livingstone whitewash, followed by Corbyn's Stop the War Lite reaction to the Syrian bombing and McCluskey's re-election have confirmed that it is all over for Labour.

    The Tories have power for the next 10 years. Being Tories they will move ever rightwards. That will open the way for a new centrist party, that is likely to be called the Liberal Democrats, to challenge for power in 2025.

    I'd agree with that, and could perhaps be persuaded to vote LD in the future, but not while they want to dive straight back into the full throttle EU. That would be a big stumbling block for a lot of people like me, I guess.
    There is a good LD slate in the Leics county elections:

    http://m.leicestermercury.co.uk/lib-dems-set-out-to-end-tory-council-control/story-30256913-detail/story.html

    I would agree that re-entry as policy at the next election would bre a mistake, but a policy of joining the EEA is really quite sensible.

    Apart from anything else, I don't think that the EU would let us rejoinn for at least another generation.

    I agree. Once we are out, we are out. EEA membership is something I would back and it's why I was not that bothered about losing the referendum as, foolishly, I believed that is where sensible Tories would take us to. I did not imagine - again foolishly in retrospect - that May would prioritise her coverage in the right wing Tory press over everything else.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,605
    Sean_F said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    CD13 said:

    Ukip no longer have a purpose. The LDs do - they survive to howl at the moon as they attempt to subvert democracy.

    So sad. A once great party reduced to this as their raison d'etre.

    Oh, and greetings from sunny Sydney.

    It is perfectly democratic to try to garner support for a change in Britains policy towards our European neighbours.

    I am less convinced by Farrons support fto what to do next.

    Credit where it is due, Nuttall has condemned the bombing, alongside Jezza and the Green Party.

    With the Tories heading right and Labour destroying itself on the far left, the gap in the centre is getting bigger and bigger. It won't happen quickly, but the LDs must fancy their chances over the longer term of filling it.

    But weirdly they're not. Stubbornly stuck on 10%. The coalition casts a long shadow and Labour still present by far the most likely alternative
    the Tories aren't turning right. That's why the LD's are stuck on 10%. There are right wing nuts in the Tories but Labour has been taken over by the left and are stuffed.

    The Tories are turning right - that's why UKare returning. But a right wing party that waves the flag will always do better than a left wing party that spurns it - especially when it is led by such a grotesque incompetent as Corbyn. Once the far left's hegemony in Labour is sealed, a lot of centre leftists giving it one last chance will walk away completely.

    err no IMHO. If Kippers are returning (and not all kippers are Tories) its because there is no UKIP party left. Its a shell.
    It suits you to paint the Tories as right wing, even if its untrue, Mrs May is centreist.

    In what way?

    because you are fish out of water, floundering, not knowing how to help your party and stop it destroying itself . So you attack the Tories, its a form of lashing out in utter desperation.
    Oh come on. A ex party leader joining a rival is a biggish story that asks a few questions. Blukip is real. The Tories are expanding to the right ,moving the centre of mass. The question is, what does it mean long-term
    In the long term? The Tories get back to the level of support they had in the Fifties, but from different sections of the electorate.
    Look at Labour. There is your future.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    philiph said:

    I thought we were often told that UKIP were to the left on several economic policies. To the right on social issues. Therefore I suggest it is simplistic twaddle to say UKIP members joining the Conservative party automatically push it right.

    UKIP only ever gave lip service to left wing issues. It was always a bit lacking in credibility to see Carswell and Farage campaigning against the Bedroom Tax and for the NHS.

    It was only ever a means to an end.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,163

    saddened said:

    What makes her think the Conservatives, would want or need a third rater like her?

    If there is a way back for a mediocrity like Reckless, surely James has a chance.

    He's not actually back but I suppose if the 'sinner repents' etc. I'd say she is probably a better option than Reckless either way.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    edited April 2017

    tlg86 said:

    Btw, what an opportunistic shit Tim Farron is.

    I could have told you that in 1999
    Two extremely right-wing Tories agree with one another. Wonders will never end!

    Tim Farron is doing very well indeed for the Lib Dems, thank you very much. It`s just posters operating on behalf of the Tory black ops propaganda machine that do not like him.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Blukip is definitely a thing now. Not sure what's in it for the Tories.

    Reabsorbing the purple frothers protects the right flank, and is something entirely in keeping with where the Tories sympathies lie.
    Sympathy maybe. I always thought it served the Tories very well, almost to the point of genius, to outsource its Tea Party fringe.
    The lunatics have now taken over the asylum.

    Exhibit one: BoJo as Foreign Secretary pulling out of meetings in Moscow. This is very much the time to open communications with Russia, not cut them off. If anyone can put pressure on Assad, it is Putin.
    That was Obama's approach, was it not? Given what happened last week, the time for soft power is surely over.

    Johnson pulling out of the Moscow trip is a demonstration of no power.

    But why would we want to do our own thing in such circumstances? Clearly the Americans are interested in this situation and whether we like it or not realistically we can only offer our point of view and support/opposition as we see fit. What would the critics of Mr Johnson rather he was doing differently to what the Americans are doing?

    Exactly. The UK is an irrelevance in all of this. The only thing we have had for years now is soft power and we have decided to dilute that. It is not replaceable with anything else, though.

    And? When America decides to get involved everyone else is an irrelevance, that's a fact of life.

    I suggested a couple of days ago that if we want to show the Russians that we're really angry with them, we should boycott the 2018 World Cup.
    We will boycott it after the group games
    You can get Russia at 40/1 to win WC2018 which must be good value given a) they'll be doped to fuck b) the team's parents will get investigated for "income tax irregularities" if they lose and c) ZA RODINU!
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,163
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    CD13 said:

    Ukip no longer have a purpose. The LDs do - they survive to howl at the moon as they attempt to subvert democracy.

    So sad. A once great party reduced to this as their raison d'etre.

    Oh, and greetings from sunny Sydney.

    It is perfectly democratic to try to garner support for a change in Britains policy towards our European neighbours.



    With the Tories heading right and Labour destroying itself on the far left, the gap in the centre is getting bigger and bigger. It won't happen quickly, but the LDs must fancy their chances over the longer term of filling it.

    But weirdly they're not. Stubbornly stuck on 10%. The coalition casts a long shadow and Labour still present by far the most likely alternative

    Labour is killing itself. At some stage there will be a tipping point when all but the most obstinate far leftist will realise there is no way back for the party. Right now, a lot of people on the centre left are betting that Corbyn will be go before the next GE. But with McCluskey set to be strengthened by re-election, that is now looking a lot less likely. I do think Farron is a problem for the LDs, but he is not in insurmountable one.

    The LDs are very, very far from providing a left wing alternative. More Plaid Cymru than SNP. The quickest route to alternative is still to fix Labour.

    Sadly, I fear that horse has bolted. The Livingstone whitewash, followed by Corbyn's Stop the War Lite reaction to the Syrian bombing and McCluskey's re-election have confirmed that it is all over for Labour.

    The Tories have power for the next 10 years. Being Tories they will move ever rightwards. That will open the way for a new centrist party, that is likely to be called the Liberal Democrats, to challenge for power in 2025.

    It has been all over for Labour many, many times before. It is possible that this is it and that Scotland will happen in England. But the LibDems are showing absolutely zero potential at the moment as a viable alternative government. None.
    Agree - I have no time for Labour but watching the 1992 inquest yesterday was a timely reminder that parties can come back from the brink with remarkable ease and the LDs are really not going to soak up the left-wing or even left centre vote anytime soon.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,751
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: interesting race, not quite the classic it might have been due to an early twist of fate. Will set about writing the post-race ramble now.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited April 2017

    Sean_F said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:



    It is perfectly democratic to try to garner support for a change in Britains policy towards our European neighbours.

    I am less convinced by Farrons support for Trump's "Wag the Dog" conversion to bombing Assad. America is now bombing both sides in the Syrian Civil War, with no plan as to what to do next.

    Credit where it is due, Nuttall has condemned the bombing, alongside Jezza and the Green Party.

    With the Tories heading right and Labour destroying itself on the far left, the gap in the centre is getting bigger and bigger. It won't happen quickly, but the LDs must fancy their chances over the longer term of filling it.

    But weirdly they're not. Stubbornly stuck on 10%. The coalition casts a long shadow and Labour still present by far the most likely alternative
    the Tories are stuffed.

    The Tories completely.

    err no IMHO. If Kippers are returning (and not all kippers are Tories) its because there is no UKIP party left. Its a shell.
    It suits you to paint the Tories as right wing, even if its untrue, Mrs May is centreist.

    In what way?

    because you are fish out of water, floundering, not knowing how to help your party and stop it destroying itself . So you attack the Tories, its a form of lashing out in utter desperation.
    Oh come on. A ex party leader joining a rival is a biggish story that asks a few questions. Blukip is real. The Tories are expanding to the right ,moving the centre of mass. The question is, what does it mean long-term
    In the long term? The Tories get back to the level of support they had in the Fifties, but from different sections of the electorate.

    I doubt that in the long term. Such a coalition would be far too hard to maintain. Interests are now too divergent.

    This plays into my point about TM's JAM sandwich. If she wants to keep the new (sub)urban tory c2 voters, she'll need to put forward policies which are in their interests - just like corbyn's VAT on private school fees to pay for *their* kids school dinners.

    Although the JAM stuff is a viable political strategy, I think she's too weak to pull it off.

    Those voters will swing straight back to labour once they're led by someone who isn't corbyn.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,401

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Blukip is definitely a thing now. Not sure what's in it for the Tories.

    Reabsorbing the purple frothers protects the right flank, and is something entirely in keeping with where the Tories sympathies lie.
    Sympathy maybe. I always thought it served the Tories very well, almost to the point of genius, to outsource its Tea Party fringe.
    The lunatics have now taken over the asylum.

    Exhibit one: BoJo as Foreign Secretary pulling out of meetings in Moscow. This is very much the time to open communications with Russia, not cut them off. If anyone can put pressure on Assad, it is Putin.
    Quite agree. Mind you, keeping Boris away from other people is in our national interest.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Blukip is definitely a thing now. Not sure what's in it for the Tories.

    Reabsorbing the purple frothers protects the right flank, and is something entirely in keeping with where the Tories sympathies lie.
    Sympathy maybe. I always thought it served the Tories very well, almost to the point of genius, to outsource its Tea Party fringe.
    The lunatics have now taken over the asylum.

    Exhibit one: BoJo as Foreign Secretary pulling out of meetings in Moscow. This is very much the time to open communications with Russia, not cut them off. If anyone can put pressure on Assad, it is Putin.
    Quite agree. Mind you, keeping Boris away from other people is in our national interest.
    Everyone loved Boris when he was Mayor of London especially as he kept out the hideously ghastly Livingstone.
    His attempt to become Tory leader failed, Mayor of London is about his level.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846

    Jonathan said:

    CD13 said:

    Ukip no longer have a purpose. The LDs do - they survive to howl at the moon as they attempt to subvert democracy.

    So sad. A once great party reduced to this as their raison d'etre.

    Oh, and greetings from sunny Sydney.

    It is perfectly democratic to try to garner support for a change in Britains policy towards our European neighbours.

    I am less convinced by Farrons support for Trump's "Wag the Dog" conversion to bombing Assad. America is now bombing both sides in the Syrian Civil War, with no plan as to what to do next.

    Credit where it is due, Nuttall has condemned the bombing, alongside Jezza and the Green Party.

    With the Tories heading right and Labour destroying itself on the far left, the gap in the centre is getting bigger and bigger. It won't happen quickly, but the LDs must fancy their chances over the longer term of filling it.

    But weirdly they're not. Stubbornly stuck on 10%. The coalition casts a long shadow and Labour still present by far the most likely alternative
    It depends on where you are in the country. In much of it, and particularly in the areas having elections in May, the opposition to the govt is not Labour.
    I think that's a key point for the LibDems - it is all too easy to look at politics in national terms and forget that it can feel very different in different parts of the country. In much of the shires Labour has put itself beyond the pale, and people's effective choice is now between LibDem and Tory. This is where the LDs would want to be in the South West and elsewhere.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,280
    felix said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    CD13 said:

    Ukip no longer have a purpose. The LDs do - they survive to howl at the moon as they attempt to subvert democracy.

    So sad. A once great party reduced to this as their raison d'etre.

    Oh, and greetings from sunny Sydney.

    It is perfectly democratic to try to garner support for a change in Britains policy towards our European neighbours.



    With the Tories heading right and Labour destroying itself on the far left, the gap in the centre is getting bigger and bigger. It won't happen quickly, but the LDs must fancy their chances over the longer term of filling it.

    But weirdly they're not. Stubbornly stuck on 10%. The coalition casts a long shadow and Labour still present by far the most likely alternative

    Labour is killing itself. At some stage there will

    The LDs are very, very far from providing a left wing alternative. More Plaid Cymru than SNP. The quickest route to alternative is still to fix Labour.

    Sadly, I fear that horse has bolted. The Livingstone whitewash, followed by Corbyn's Stop the War Lite reaction to the Syrian bombing and McCluskey's re-election have confirmed that it is all over for Labour.

    The Tories have power for the next 10 years. Being Tories they will move ever rightwards. That will open the way for a new centrist party, that is likely to be called the Liberal Democrats, to challenge for power in 2025.

    It has been all over for Labour many, many times before. It is possible that this is it and that Scotland will happen in England. But the LibDems are showing absolutely zero potential at the moment as a viable alternative government. None.
    Agree - I have no time for Labour but watching the 1992 inquest yesterday was a timely reminder that parties can come back from the brink with remarkable ease and the LDs are really not going to soak up the left-wing or even left centre vote anytime soon.
    Because Labour lost an election they were expected to win, commentators tended to ignore the fact they gained 40 seats, and didn't lose by much.

    Subsequent events then favoured Labour, whereas now they've favoured the Conservatives.

    Labour were very unlucky to lose Ed Balls. Had he become leader, I'm sure Labour would have the standard mid-term lead that an Opposition ought to have.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Sean_F said:

    felix said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    CD13 said:

    Ukip no longer have a purpose. The LDs do - they survive to howl at the moon as they attempt to subvert democracy.

    So sad. A once great party reduced to this as their raison d'etre.

    Oh, and greetings from sunny Sydney.

    It is perfectly democratic to try to garner support for a change in Britains policy towards our European neighbours.



    With the Tories heading right and Labour destroying itself on the far left, the gap in the centre is getting bigger and bigger. It won't happen quickly, but the LDs must fancy their chances over the longer term of filling it.

    But weirdly they're not. Stubbornly stuck on 10%. The coalition casts a long shadow and Labour still present by far the most likely alternative

    Labour is killing itself. At some stage there will

    The LDs are very, very far from providing a left wing alternative. More Plaid Cymru than SNP. The quickest route to alternative is still to fix Labour.

    Sadly, I fear that horse has bolted. The Livingstone whitewash, followed by Corbyn's Stop the War Lite reaction to the Syrian bombing and McCluskey's re-election have confirmed that it is all over for Labour.

    The Tories have power for the next 10 years. Being Tories they will move ever rightwards. That will open the way for a new centrist party, that is likely to be called the Liberal Democrats, to challenge for power in 2025.

    It has been all over for Labour many, many times before. It is possible that this is it and that Scotland will happen in England. But the LibDems are showing absolutely zero potential at the moment as a viable alternative government. None.
    Agree - I have no time for Labour but watching the 1992 inquest yesterday was a timely reminder that parties can come back from the brink with remarkable ease and the LDs are really not going to soak up the left-wing or even left centre vote anytime soon.
    Because Labour lost an election they were expected to win, commentators tended to ignore the fact they gained 40 seats, and didn't lose by much.

    Subsequent events then favoured Labour, whereas now they've favoured the Conservatives.

    Labour were very unlucky to lose Ed Balls. Had he become leader, I'm sure Labour would have the standard mid-term lead that an Opposition ought to have.
    Unlucky/.. I think not, He took his eye off his own seat,. very foolish, self preservation should have kicked in
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Jonathan said:

    Oh come on. A ex party leader joining a rival is a biggish story that asks a few questions. Blukip is real. The Tories are expanding to the right ,moving the centre of mass. The question is, what does it mean long-term

    Here's a recent example of centrist Blukip thinking. How many Tory MPs agree?

    https://twitter.com/DianeJamesMEP/status/850011897751642112
    She's possibly right. Changes are what create the biggest opportunities and given that the Eurozone has performed dreadfully since its inception it might be an opportunity if it were to break up. I doubt it, there are too many factors in play there that didn't affect us but it's possible.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846
    Sean_F said:

    felix said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    CD13 said:

    Ukip no longer have a purpose. The LDs do - they survive to howl at the moon as they attempt to subvert democracy.
    .






    But weirdly they're not. Stubbornly stuck on 10%. The coalition casts a long shadow and Labour still present by far the most likely alternative

    Labour is killing itself. At some stage there will

    The LDs are very, very far from providing a left wing alternative. More Plaid Cymru than SNP. The quickest route to alternative is still to fix Labour.

    Sadly, I fear that horse has bolted. The Livingstone whitewash, followed by Corbyn's Stop the War Lite reaction to the Syrian bombing and McCluskey's re-election have confirmed that it is all over for Labour.

    The Tories have power for the next 10 years. Being Tories they will move ever rightwards. That will open the way for a new centrist party, that is likely to be called the Liberal Democrats, to challenge for power in 2025.

    It has been all over for Labour many, many times before. It is possible that this is it and that Scotland will happen in England. But the LibDems are showing absolutely zero potential at the moment as a viable alternative government. None.
    Agree - I have no time for Labour but watching the 1992 inquest yesterday was a timely reminder that parties can come back from the brink with remarkable ease and the LDs are really not going to soak up the left-wing or even left centre vote anytime soon.
    Because Labour lost an election they were expected to win, commentators tended to ignore the fact they gained 40 seats, and didn't lose by much.

    Subsequent events then favoured Labour, whereas now they've favoured the Conservatives.

    Labour were very unlucky to lose Ed Balls. Had he become leader, I'm sure Labour would have the standard mid-term lead that an Opposition ought to have.
    Unlike felix I would hardly describe Labour's journey from 1983 to 1997 and all the associated pain along the way as "remarkable ease"! It took a Herculean effort by the moderates, a very long time, and the chance arrival of just the right leader for the times to get back into contention. In 2017 the necessary work or progress hasn't even started; indeed surely Labour is still on the way down.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    IanB2 said:

    Jonathan said:

    CD13 said:

    Ukip no longer have a purpose. The LDs do - they survive to howl at the moon as they attempt to subvert democracy.

    So sad. A once great party reduced to this as their raison d'etre.

    Oh, and greetings from sunny Sydney.

    It is perfectly democratic to try to garner support for a change in Britains policy towards our European neighbours.

    I am less convinced by Farrons support for Trump's "Wag the Dog" conversion to bombing Assad. America is now bombing both sides in the Syrian Civil War, with no plan as to what to do next.

    Credit where it is due, Nuttall has condemned the bombing, alongside Jezza and the Green Party.

    With the Tories heading right and Labour destroying itself on the far left, the gap in the centre is getting bigger and bigger. It won't happen quickly, but the LDs must fancy their chances over the longer term of filling it.

    But weirdly they're not. Stubbornly stuck on 10%. The coalition casts a long shadow and Labour still present by far the most likely alternative
    It depends on where you are in the country. In much of it, and particularly in the areas having elections in May, the opposition to the govt is not Labour.
    I think that's a key point for the LibDems - it is all too easy to look at politics in national terms and forget that it can feel very different in different parts of the country. In much of the shires Labour has put itself beyond the pale, and people's effective choice is now between LibDem and Tory. This is where the LDs would want to be in the South West and elsewhere.
    Of course the lds fell to third or fourth in many south west parliamentary seats in 2015 - what they need is proof hey are indeed the alternative choice there once again. I would expect them to be, but they'd like confirmation.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846

    Jonathan said:

    Oh come on. A ex party leader joining a rival is a biggish story that asks a few questions. Blukip is real. The Tories are expanding to the right ,moving the centre of mass. The question is, what does it mean long-term

    Here's a recent example of centrist Blukip thinking. How many Tory MPs agree?

    https://twitter.com/DianeJamesMEP/status/850011897751642112
    She's possibly right. Changes are what create the biggest opportunities and given that the Eurozone has performed dreadfully since its inception it might be an opportunity if it were to break up. I doubt it, there are too many factors in play there that didn't affect us but it's possible.
    ''tis simply an unfocused aspiration for Albion to resume its traditional policy of divide-and-rule when it comes to influence on the continent, brokering between the various continental powers. Whereas the more likely reality is that the EU will remain coherent and we have shut ourselves out of significant influence on the continent altogether.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,163

    Jonathan said:

    Oh come on. A ex party leader joining a rival is a biggish story that asks a few questions. Blukip is real. The Tories are expanding to the right ,moving the centre of mass. The question is, what does it mean long-term

    Here's a recent example of centrist Blukip thinking. How many Tory MPs agree?

    https://twitter.com/DianeJamesMEP/status/850011897751642112
    She's possibly right. Changes are what create the biggest opportunities and given that the Eurozone has performed dreadfully since its inception it might be an opportunity if it were to break up. I doubt it, there are too many factors in play there that didn't affect us but it's possible.
    I don't think it will easily fracture but it needs significant reform for which the will seems to be lacking. For me it is too inward looking and protectionist while the pressure for a USE seems doomed to fail.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846

    Sean_F said:

    felix said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    CD13 said:

    Ukip no longer have a purpose. The LDs do - they survive to howl at the moon as they attempt to subvert democracy.

    So sad. A once great party reduced to this as their raison d'etre.

    Oh, and greetings from sunny Sydney.

    It is perfectly democratic to try to garner support for a change in Britains policy towards our European neighbours.





    But weirdly they're not. Stubbornly stuck on 10%. The coalition casts a long shadow and Labour still present by far the most likely alternative

    Labour is killing itself. At some stage there will

    The LDs are very, very far from providing a left wing alternative. More Plaid Cymru than SNP. The quickest route to alternative is still to fix Labour.

    Sadly, I fear that horse has bolted. The Livingstone whitewash, followed by Corbyn's Stop the War Lite reaction to the Syrian bombing and McCluskey's re-election have confirmed that it is all over for Labour.


    It has been all over for Labour many, many times before. It is possible that this is it and that Scotland will happen in England. But the LibDems are showing absolutely zero potential at the moment as a viable alternative government. None.
    Agree - I have no time for Labour but watching the 1992 inquest yesterday was a timely reminder that parties can come back from the brink with remarkable ease and the LDs are really not going to soak up the left-wing or even left centre vote anytime soon.
    Because Labour lost an election they were expected to win, commentators tended to ignore the fact they gained 40 seats, and didn't lose by much.

    Subsequent events then favoured Labour, whereas now they've favoured the Conservatives.

    Labour were very unlucky to lose Ed Balls. Had he become leader, I'm sure Labour would have the standard mid-term lead that an Opposition ought to have.
    Unlucky/.. I think not, He took his eye off his own seat,. very foolish, self preservation should have kicked in
    He also tended to behave alternately like an oaf or a tit in parliament, which didn't do his image any favours. If, as it might appear, he is actually a decent guy, it didn't come across when it mattered.
This discussion has been closed.