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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The French Presidency, Manchester Gorton & how long will Trump

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  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,355
    Alistair said:

    Have certain pbers managed to live down their rabid screams to demand to know the religion of the Glasgow bin lorry driver?
    Some part of them will always believe that a pale, overweight pie eater from Baillieston is a follower of the prophet.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235

    Your logic is faulty because those of breeding age would have bred with descendants of John of Gaunt. It only takes one drop along the way.

    However, in practice I expect that the John of Gaunt statistic is wrong because the descendants would have been disproportionately likely to be breeding with each other rather than bringing proles into the Gaunt bloodline.
    " disproportionately likely to be breeding with each other rather than bringing proles into the Gaunt bloodline"

    This is where daughters are important, once married off to another man their fortune is no longer relevant to the gentry. And THEIR daughter is right out.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    RobD said:

    Hmm, are we sure that Charles isn't *the* Charles? ;)
    Do you really think I'd be daft enough to post under my real name if I was?
  • TOPPING said:

    It was posited as being a remedy for terrorism.
    Which in isolation it is not, but is a pretty obvious contributor. To say that "implying we must stop importing terrorism" is questionable as a remedial measure for terrorism is absurd.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    Pulpstar said:

    " disproportionately likely to be breeding with each other rather than bringing proles into the Gaunt bloodline"

    This is where daughters are important, once married off to another man their fortune is no longer relevant to the gentry. And THEIR daughter is right out.
    Genghis Khan:

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2003/mar/02/science.research
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    RobD said:

    Yeah, it's *only* about twenty generations (using the non-Scottish definition of the word here), so the chance that all non-John of Gaunt descendants have intermarried with the 1% are probably pretty slim. Saying that, if they are efficient at intermarrying they would be up to 2% after the first generation, 4% in the second, 8%.. etc. That would quickly build up.
    Don't forget that the population was much smaller, and the noble classes probably had a higher percentage change of surviving longer and procreating more (both within wedlock and as by-blows).

    (Although I am descended from both John of Gaunt and Mohammed with the paperwork to prove it)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,134
    @Pulpstar re. your question earlier, it was just a slip of the tongue. She meant infinite.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,348
    That'll teach @Mortimer to organise a drink up
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,570
    Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 2h2 hours ago

    Voters disapprove of the GOP plan to replace Obamacare by a staggering 56 to 17% margin


    And yet someone voted for Trump and his plan. I am reminded of the TV clip during the election when a Trump voter said he hated Obamacare and was voting the Donald in to get rid of it. The reporter asked him what he would do for medical insurance. Oh, I'm ok was the reply - I'm covered on the Affordable Care Act.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235

    Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 2h2 hours ago

    Voters disapprove of the GOP plan to replace Obamacare by a staggering 56 to 17% margin


    And yet someone voted for Trump and his plan. I am reminded of the TV clip during the election when a Trump voter said he hated Obamacare and was voting the Donald in to get rid of it. The reporter asked him what he would do for medical insurance. Oh, I'm ok was the reply - I'm covered on the Affordable Care Act.

    Trump REPEATEDLY said Obamacare was a "disaster" on the campaign trail. People can hardly say they weren't given due warning..
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Barnesian said:

    I believe the main motive of ISIS terrorism is to provoke us to turn against Muslims in general and thereby radicalise more Muslims in a vicious circle. It is ISIS's only leverage.
    Well yes, that is exactly what ISIS have said the aim of their terrorism is.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,487
    Mr. Charles, yes.

    You are the Prince of Wales, and I claim an earldom.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,688
    Charles said:

    Do you really think I'd be daft enough to post under my real name if I was?
    George VII? :)
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Charles said:

    Do you really think I'd be daft enough to post under my real name if I was?
    Is that a double-bluff?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    RobD said:

    20 million is a lower bound though, say, for example, the John of Gaunt descendants typically had five children compared with two for the peasant classes.
    The fecundity of the nobility is known down the ages and by the aged .... :smile:
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,570
    Alistair said:

    Well yes, that is exactly what ISIS have said the aim of their terrorism is.
    Actually, I think it is worse than this (if that is possible). ISIS believe Muslims who live among non-believers (i.e. here in christian west) are as bad as the non-believers and deserve to die as well.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651
    TudorRose said:

    And it completely ignores what you define as 'overrun'. You could argue all of the countries on the chart are over-run or none of them, depending on your viewpoint. The fact that the UK is in the centre of a statistical distribution doesn't justify the conclusion. If it were a student of mine I'd be suggesting that they try harder!
    I didn't define "overrun". I was asking a question. If you were my teacher, I'd expect a constructive attempt to engage!

  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    Cyclefree said:

    I didn't define "overrun". I was asking a question. If you were my teacher, I'd expect a constructive attempt to engage!

    I wasn't criticising you, I was criticising the statement on the slide - that's what the 'it' refers to in my first line.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538
    Pulpstar said:

    Oh Lol its miles off, I'm guessing either @Charles or @tlg86 is closest to the Queen here.
    I reckon I'm about 85,000th in line to the thrown...
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    GeoffM said:

    Is that a double-bluff?
    Were you one of the 823?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,688
    Charles said:

    Were you one of the 823?
    Geoff used up all of his 823 votes in the Referendum :lol:
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    JackW said:

    The fecundity of the nobility is known down the ages and by the aged .... :smile:
    As is the fact that while the noble is away doing noble stuff in the wars, his castle's policies are full of lusty young ghillies and gamekeepers and so forth.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    edited March 2017

    Mr. Charles, yes.

    You are the Prince of Wales, and I claim an earldom.

    Earl Morris of The Dance? Or will it be Earl Dancer of the Whiffle Stick? Though thinking about it, that sort of title is used for lesser mortals - Viscounts and Barons. Earls are more direct in their titles. So perhaps we could Earl of Writers' Block or, maybe, Earl of Bleedin'HellWhenDidHeSayTheNextBookWasComingOut.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Pulpstar said:

    Trump REPEATEDLY said Obamacare was a "disaster" on the campaign trail. People can hardly say they weren't given due warning..
    Trump did say Obamacare was a disaster but he also pledged to replace it with something better -- but what he has done is not present Trumpcare (better, cheaper, full provision) but basically endorse the Ryan plan which is worse for many Americans but does not go far enough down the repeal route for some GOPpers.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    tlg86 said:

    I reckon I'm about 85,000th in line to the thrown...
    As in Game of Throwns, that epic saga set in the world of high-stakes poker dice?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    edited March 2017
    tlg86 said:

    I reckon I'm about 85,000th in line to the thrown...
    Probably about right if Rose Leveson Gower (Nee Bowes Lyon) was your great grandmother.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,572
    IanB2 said:

    @Pulpstar re. your question earlier, it was just a slip of the tongue. She meant infinite.

    Of course. So what she said had no content. Meaningless platitude.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Trump did say Obamacare was a disaster but he also pledged to replace it with something better -- but what he has done is not present Trumpcare (better, cheaper, full provision) but basically endorse the Ryan plan which is worse for many Americans but does not go far enough down the repeal route for some GOPpers.
    The two most popular features of Ryancare comes from Obamacare !!
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited March 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    Trump REPEATEDLY said Obamacare was a "disaster" on the campaign trail. People can hardly say they weren't given due warning..
    I'll be honest, even now, I'm still not sure exactly what "Obamacare" actually entails. The US healthcare system seems such a tangled mess that I give up trying to read how it works (and what Obamacare changed about it) halfway through any article I read on it.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Ishmael_Z said:

    As is the fact that while the noble is away doing noble stuff in the wars, his castle's policies are full of lusty young ghillies and gamekeepers and so forth.
    The occasion influx of stout yeoman stock is no bad thing .... so I'm told.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,724
    Cyclefree said:

    It's not a remedy. But when you have a problem with integration or, indeed, de-integration of second/third generations, then it really does not make a whole lot of sense to increase the numbers in a particular community. That is not going to aid integration. And unintegrated communities are likely to pose a higher risk of creating the breeding grounds for terrorism and other extremist behavior or behavior at odds with the norms of the society. That is not good for social cohesion.

    To misquote a famous person's words: There is such a thing as society. I don't want the society I live in to end up fractured because we refuse to apply any sort of common-sense or intelligent judgment to the question of who should be permitted to join it.

    There is a discussion to be had about further levels of immigration and integration. But let's look at practicalities. The government seems to be about to clamp down on Polish plumbers while doing nothing about non-EU immigration.

    So even if we think there should be no more immigration from Muslim countries the UK does not seem about to do anything about it.

    But that's beside the point. Reducing such immigration in future will not address the issue of British terrorists today.
  • Cyclefree said:

    I didn't define "overrun". I was asking a question. If you were my teacher, I'd expect a constructive attempt to engage!

    Could be wrong, but I think TR's comment was directed at williamglenn (as an adjunct to your earlier comment) and not at you.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,572
    I wonder what percentage of the UK's mosques tomorrow will be telling their faithful that the Westminster terrorist is now burning in hell. As will all who follow in his footsteps. As will all who sit on information about others planning to follow in his footsteps.

    Surely, it will have to be 100%? /sarcasm-mode
  • isamisam Posts: 41,348
    TOPPING said:

    There is a discussion to be had about further levels of immigration and integration. But let's look at practicalities. The government seems to be about to clamp down on Polish plumbers while doing nothing about non-EU immigration.

    So even if we think there should be no more immigration from Muslim countries the UK does not seem about to do anything about it.

    But that's beside the point. Reducing such immigration in future will not address the issue of British terrorists today.
    Do you think there is a solution? Personally I think it is too late, and this is the new normal. Extreme surveillance, less freedom, more anxiety
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Charles said:

    Do you really think I'd be daft enough to post under my real name if I was?
    Possibly you'd think it was hiding in plain sight.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,487
    Mr. Llama, I'd be Lord of the Dance, but I believe that title's already taken...

    Book scheduling/ramble:
    Well, Traitor's Prize was originally intended for November/December, and I'm going to try and release it June/July.
    I also have two exciting innovative projects (a serial and a tip-top secret something) that should be out in the next month or two.

    I might be trying to draw some sketches for the serial (for promotional nonsense) so that might add a little to the time.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364
    JackW said:

    The occasion influx of stout yeoman stock is no bad thing .... so I'm told.
    We don't want any Charles Hapsburg repeats. :smiley:
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,724
    edited March 2017
    isam said:

    Do you think there is a solution? Personally I think it is too late, and this is the new normal. Extreme surveillance, less freedom, more anxiety
    I don't actually think there is a solution beyond an active promotion of our values. Whose values? Post reformation, enlightenment values for me. But plenty of Brits value Islamic Fundamentalism.

    I think the modern globalised world has thrown up some challenges for which the answers are still a work in progress.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538
    edited March 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    Probably about right if Rose Leveson Gower (Nee Bowes Lyon) was your great grandmother.
    Afraid not. I'm the great grandson of Evelyn Marmaduke Gresham Leveson Gower:

    http://thepeerage.com/p1570.htm#i15691

    And Elo Janet Catherine Farquharson:

    http://thepeerage.com/p1571.htm#i15710
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364
    tlg86 said:

    Afraid not. I'm the great grandson of Evelyn Marmaduke Gresham Leveson Gower:

    http://thepeerage.com/p1570.htm#i15691

    And Elo Janet Catherine Farquharson:

    http://thepeerage.com/p1571.htm#i15710
    Consanguinity index of 0%! You lucky sod ;)
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    Trump REPEATEDLY said Obamacare was a "disaster" on the campaign trail. People can hardly say they weren't given due warning..
    Many American voters don't know what Obamacare was and didn't know they were getting their healthcare under and Obamacare provision.

    Many Trump voter though that 'others' were getting Obamacare and sponging off them. They were happy to vote for others to no longer have healthcare.

    The repeal attempt has revealed to many that Obamacare is the only thing keeping them in health insurance.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,348
    edited March 2017
    TOPPING said:

    I don't actually think there is a solution beyond an active promotion of our values. Whose values? Post reformation, enlightenment values for me. But plenty of Brits value Islamic Fundamentalism.

    I think the modern globalised world has thrown up some challenges for which the answers are still a work in progress.
    I think in a game of Values Top Trumps, Islamic beats Secular hands down in the "commitment" category

    The mistake humans have made in the last half a century or so seems to be switching from "don't try it in case it makes a mess" to "just try it and clear up the mess as best you can" in almost every aspect. We celebrate the happy accidents and ignore the permanent stains
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    @tlg86 I note your G G Grandmother was a "Leigh". Which makes us 15th cousins or so :p
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    If PB becomes a dosshouse for minor royalty and 1st Class passengers I’m gonna flounce...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235

    If PB becomes a dosshouse for minor royalty and 1st Class passengers I’m gonna flounce...

    We're all sons of Mohammed here :>
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538
    tlg86 said:

    Afraid not. I'm the great grandson of Evelyn Marmaduke Gresham Leveson Gower:

    http://thepeerage.com/p1570.htm#i15691

    And Elo Janet Catherine Farquharson:

    http://thepeerage.com/p1571.htm#i15710
    Just checked, I had to go back nine generations to this guy to find someone in common with the bloke that the Queen Mother's sister married:

    http://thepeerage.com/p10559.htm#i105589
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538
    Pulpstar said:

    @tlg86 I note your G G Grandmother was a "Leigh". Which makes us 15th cousins or so :p

    Delighted to hear it.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,688
    Pulpstar said:

    We're all sons of Mohammed here :>
    The world's first Islamist?

    :innocent:
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,520

    Too bad that what the ancient Greeks actually used to get up to(including probably Plato and Socrates) to would have got them long jail terms and a record as sex offenders nowadays. And that's just the Athenians. The Spartans, if anything, were worse.
    Many of our top public schools were modelled on the Spartan system. Vile food, cold showers, lots of sport in all weathers, and compulsory pederasty.
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    When the IRA bombing campaign was in full spate I don't recall anyone calling for an end to the common travel area with Eire.

    Just saying.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Sean_F said:

    Many of our top public schools were modelled on the Spartan system. Vile food, cold showers, lots of sport in all weathers, and compulsory pederasty.
    They used to put bromide in the tea at my school. Sometimes I think it's wearing off.....
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    Too bad that what the ancient Greeks actually used to get up to(including probably Plato and Socrates) to would have got them long jail terms and a record as sex offenders nowadays. And that's just the Athenians. The Spartans, if anything, were worse.
    And a career at the BBC.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited March 2017

    Ok, I'll bite.
    To me the fella that did this isn't British. He might have been born here and have a British passport, but he clearly doesn't identify as British, as British people shouldn't feel the need to mow down innocent people and stab a police officer to death in the name of some crazy branch of a religion, that has been hijacked by an evil terrorist group that wants to turn the western world into part of its warped Caliphate. I dunno what you'd call him.
    The rise of the BIPO. British in passport only.

    There's a lot of it about.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,487
    Mr. Chestnut, that acronym will stick.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538
    Btw, @Pulpstar, have you noticed the scandal in my family?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538
    Thread nouveau
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Sean_F said:

    Many of our top public schools were modelled on the Spartan system. Vile food, cold showers, lots of sport in all weathers, and compulsory pederasty.
    One of my uncle's went to Winchester in the early forties and then joined up at eighteen , landing at Normandy with the Commandos. I said that must have been quite a shock, he said not really.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Charles said:

    Were you one of the 823?
    @Charles Of course, and proud of it!
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    edited March 2017
    test
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    edited March 2017
    test
This discussion has been closed.