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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The French Presidency, Manchester Gorton & how long will Trump last – latest betting market round-up
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First first?0
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Since it's directly relevant to this thread, I'll repost this FPT:AlastairMeeks said:
I think this got lost in all the drama yesterday:
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/844666461385842689
The precision is, of course, ridiculous. The thrust of the numbers is interesting, though it seems to me to understate the chance of a shock. @Cyan will be appalled to see that his horse isn't even listed as a starter.
For completeness, this was the site's closing prediction for the US election:
http://www.thecrosstab.com/2016 Forecast/0 -
Unlike Gareth Snell the Labour candidate has been busy cleaning up his Twitter account. Nothing to hide, nothing to fear.0
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Weapons found in the car in antwerp.0
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FPT - analysis in Guardian suggesting yesterday's attack a sign of weakness of terrorists:
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/mar/23/crude-nature-of-attack-suggests-lack-of-isis-network-in-britain0 -
I fully expect Trump to complete the first term. Value there, I think. I think Le Pen marginally more likely to win the French presidency than Labour lose Gorton, but neither is interesting from the odds point of view - although both interesting from a political point of view.0
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Ninth!0
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Why do they do such things? If someone digs up an archived copy of something even halfway controversial, they immediately look shifty even if they did not delete to try to hide certain comments.dr_spyn said:Unlike Gareth Snell the Labour candidate has been busy cleaning up his Twitter account. Nothing to hide, nothing to fear.
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Who's the red line that spiked early on?0
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Sky reporting that the authorities in antwerp have said it is a foiled terrorist attack.0
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Juppé at the height of Fillon's troubles.kle4 said:Who's the red line that spiked early on?
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Interesting phrasing - Trump 'to leave' before end of first term.0
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He certainly doesn't appear hugely interested in being an MP.CarlottaVance said:0 -
How did they see him if he was camouflaged?FrancisUrquhart said:More details...
https://twitter.com/kayburley/status/8449053557380382720 -
PS candidate?kle4 said:Who's the red line that spiked early on?
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Ah yes. It really does seem to have worked out very well for Macron.AlastairMeeks said:
Juppé at the height of Fillon's troubles.kle4 said:Who's the red line that spiked early on?
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I also fully expect DT to complete first term & quite possibly a second.The DNC are a total disgrace not only for hypocrisy but also juvenile in their behaviour.This Russian thing is a set-up job in my opinion.0
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So Macron's chances of winning are 0.3% higher according to this outfit than Hilary's were. It's a margin of comfort I suppose.AlastairMeeks said:Since it's directly relevant to this thread, I'll repost this FPT:
AlastairMeeks said:I think this got lost in all the drama yesterday:
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/844666461385842689
The precision is, of course, ridiculous. The thrust of the numbers is interesting, though it seems to me to understate the chance of a shock. @Cyan will be appalled to see that his horse isn't even listed as a starter.
For completeness, this was the site's closing prediction for the US election:
http://www.thecrosstab.com/2016 Forecast/
It's looking like Macron will do it, but I'm far from convinced it's an 85% chance.0 -
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Man arrested in #Antwerp is French national living in France with knives and other weapons in his car - Prosecutor0
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AYE.Mortimer said:Truckles booked for 6pm Wednesday 29th. I've asked for the reservation to read 'Mr Mortimer of PB'.
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The extreme difficulty in getting either access to guns or any facility with them remains our most important weapon in this fight. Without it yesterday could have been so much worse.FrancisUrquhart said:Weapons found in the car in antwerp.
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French man arrested is of Tunisian descent.0
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Ithink the value bet is on Trump going in 2017. You can lay at 4.7 or so last time i checked.FF43 said:I fully expect Trump to complete the first term. Value there, I think. I think Le Pen marginally more likely to win the French presidency than Labour lose Gorton, but neither is interesting from the odds point of view - although both interesting from a political point of view.
Not bad for a 9 month return.
If Dems do very well in mid terms i think they would start impeachment.0 -
Absolutely. The advantage of strict laws and being an island.DavidL said:
The extreme difficulty in getting either access to guns or any facility with them remains our most important weapon in this fight. Without it yesterday could have been so much worse.FrancisUrquhart said:Weapons found in the car in antwerp.
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I thought it was an early birthday party for me (given that my birthday, March 30, in 2019 will be our first day of freedom...)Mortimer said:0 -
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Deleted as original source was a tweet.0
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Having two rounds of itself introduces uncertainty. This calculation says Macron has almost the same chance of winning the presidency as he does of getting into the second round, even though we don't know at this stage who is going to be in the second round. By contrast, Le Pen is down as a dead cert to be in the second round but is guaranteed not to be president, even though, as we have just said, we don't know who is going to be in the second round. The presidency probability for Macron should be lower and Le Pen higher. I would say Betfair is about right at 65%/22% Macron/Le Pen, rather than 85%/4%AlastairMeeks said:I think this got lost in all the drama yesterday:
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/844666461385842689
The precision is, of course, ridiculous. The thrust of the numbers is interesting, though it seems to me to understate the chance of a shock. @Cyan will be appalled to see that his horse isn't even listed as a starter.
For completeness, this was the site's closing prediction for the US election:
http://www.thecrosstab.com/2016 Forecast/
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Did you remember to tell them that famous local author S K Tremayne (TWO places in the German TOP TEN!) is footing the bill?Mortimer said:Truckles booked for 6pm Wednesday 29th. I've asked for the reservation to read 'Mr Mortimer of PB'.
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Afternoon all.
A sad 24 hours.
I'm not one for "We are not afraid" tweets. My reaction - other than to feel sad at the loss of life and admiration for the police, paramedics and that MP who tried to help - is "Piss off ISIS. We're better - much much better than you. And we're going to crush you and your evil."
And I also hope to God that my son who is going to Paris tomorrow will come home in one piece, safe and sound. So I'm not afraid to say that I am a touch afraid, even if I'm still bloody well going to carry on living my life how I damn well like.0 -
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And of most terrorists being lone wolves who are clueless about how and where to buy guns. Or like the French guy on the train, not knowing how to use the one he had got. There are enough gang-related shootings to quell complacency.FrancisUrquhart said:
Absolutely. The advantage of strict laws and being an island.DavidL said:
The extreme difficulty in getting either access to guns or any facility with them remains our most important weapon in this fight. Without it yesterday could have been so much worse.FrancisUrquhart said:Weapons found in the car in antwerp.
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There's a condolences page for Keith Palmer here if anyone would like to sign. Your comments may be displayed, though without your name.
https://beta.met.police.uk/condolences/0 -
Enjoy yourselves peasants ....Mortimer said:
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The most worrying thing from the panorama report on the Belgium terrorists was that there is a cell on europe (who haven't been caught) who will deliver weapons to ISIS members on request.DecrepitJohnL said:
And of most terrorists being lone wolves who are clueless about how and where to buy guns. Or like the French guy on the train, not knowing how to use the one he had got. There are enough gang-related shootings to quell complacency.FrancisUrquhart said:
Absolutely. The advantage of strict laws and being an island.DavidL said:
The extreme difficulty in getting either access to guns or any facility with them remains our most important weapon in this fight. Without it yesterday could have been so much worse.FrancisUrquhart said:Weapons found in the car in antwerp.
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I've no idea about the case, of course, but I'm baffled why anyone ever would have false signatures on a nomination paper - even a Monster Raving Loony candidate can rustle up a dozen names without too much difficulty. And who you actually get to nominate you is almost irrelevant - nobody ever bothers to look (except your opponents).dr_spyn said:Bob Spink in a bit of local difficulty.
https://twitter.com/BBCEssex/status/8449104558480998410 -
Yes, they fail to take into account the possibility of a polling fail (unlikely) or a Black Swan event affecting Macron (also unlikely - but who knows given the shenanigans across the pond). I'd put Macron's chances at about 70% now. The key question is whether he can get into the 2nd round. Polling for all candidates is still so low that there is a chance of a slip up on small margins - say if Macron fell back 3-4% to 22% that would open the door to Fillon v Le Pen and give Le Pen her best chance. Against Le Pen Macron would be a dead cert.FormerToryOrange said:
So Macron's chances of winning are 0.3% higher according to this outfit than Hilary's were. It's a margin of comfort I suppose.AlastairMeeks said:Since it's directly relevant to this thread, I'll repost this FPT:
AlastairMeeks said:I think this got lost in all the drama yesterday:
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/844666461385842689
The precision is, of course, ridiculous. The thrust of the numbers is interesting, though it seems to me to understate the chance of a shock. @Cyan will be appalled to see that his horse isn't even listed as a starter.
For completeness, this was the site's closing prediction for the US election:
http://www.thecrosstab.com/2016 Forecast/
It's looking like Macron will do it, but I'm far from convinced it's an 85% chance.0 -
Well done!Mortimer said:Truckles booked for 6pm Wednesday 29th. I've asked for the reservation to read 'Mr Mortimer of PB'.
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Happy birthday for then. You share the day with a dear friend of mine who is a rabid Europhile. I rather wish the A50 date had been the 30th, if only to tease her that it happened on her birthday,Charles said:
I thought it was an early birthday party for me (given that my birthday, March 30, in 2019 will be our first day of freedom...)Mortimer said:
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One can only assume this part of France doesn't look like a jungle.TwistedFireStopper said:
How did they see him if he was camouflaged?FrancisUrquhart said:More details...
https://twitter.com/kayburley/status/844905355738038272
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Could have been desert camouflage...notme said:
One can only assume this part of France doesn't look like a jungle.TwistedFireStopper said:
How did they see him if he was camouflaged?FrancisUrquhart said:More details...
https://twitter.com/kayburley/status/844905355738038272 0 -
But on the other hand, how many people predicted that Clinton would lose the electoral college despite winning the popular vote by 2.1%?FormerToryOrange said:
So Macron's chances of winning are 0.3% higher according to this outfit than Hilary's were. It's a margin of comfort I suppose.AlastairMeeks said:Since it's directly relevant to this thread, I'll repost this FPT:
AlastairMeeks said:I think this got lost in all the drama yesterday:
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/844666461385842689
The precision is, of course, ridiculous. The thrust of the numbers is interesting, though it seems to me to understate the chance of a shock. @Cyan will be appalled to see that his horse isn't even listed as a starter.
For completeness, this was the site's closing prediction for the US election:
http://www.thecrosstab.com/2016 Forecast/
It's looking like Macron will do it, but I'm far from convinced it's an 85% chance.0 -
Taking the strain off @Fat_Steve for once! Will he and @MikeSmithson be coming along?Casino_Royale said:
Well done!Mortimer said:Truckles booked for 6pm Wednesday 29th. I've asked for the reservation to read 'Mr Mortimer of PB'.
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It is amazing to think that Donald Trump got a smaller share of the vote than Mitt Romney.Chris said:
But on the other hand, how many people predicted that Clinton would lose the electoral college despite winning the popular vote by 2.1%?FormerToryOrange said:
So Macron's chances of winning are 0.3% higher according to this outfit than Hilary's were. It's a margin of comfort I suppose.AlastairMeeks said:Since it's directly relevant to this thread, I'll repost this FPT:
AlastairMeeks said:I think this got lost in all the drama yesterday:
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/844666461385842689
The precision is, of course, ridiculous. The thrust of the numbers is interesting, though it seems to me to understate the chance of a shock. @Cyan will be appalled to see that his horse isn't even listed as a starter.
For completeness, this was the site's closing prediction for the US election:
http://www.thecrosstab.com/2016 Forecast/
It's looking like Macron will do it, but I'm far from convinced it's an 85% chance.0 -
Just to double check, there is no electoral college in France - right ?0
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I've taken some of the evens on Donald Trump to remain in office for the rest of his first term. This looks absurdly long to me, even ignoring the fact that bets are voided if there's an assassination attempt.0
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Looking at the pictures of where this guy was trying to attack it seems like the people of Antwerp have had a very lucky escape.0
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If Putin has access to FSB dirt on Macron, he'll release it at the right time, which is after the choice is down to Macron and Le Pen.Chris said:
But on the other hand, how many people predicted that Clinton would lose the electoral college despite winning the popular vote by 2.1%?FormerToryOrange said:
So Macron's chances of winning are 0.3% higher according to this outfit than Hilary's were. It's a margin of comfort I suppose.AlastairMeeks said:Since it's directly relevant to this thread, I'll repost this FPT:
AlastairMeeks said:I think this got lost in all the drama yesterday:
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/844666461385842689
The precision is, of course, ridiculous. The thrust of the numbers is interesting, though it seems to me to understate the chance of a shock. @Cyan will be appalled to see that his horse isn't even listed as a starter.
For completeness, this was the site's closing prediction for the US election:
http://www.thecrosstab.com/2016 Forecast/
It's looking like Macron will do it, but I'm far from convinced it's an 85% chance.
Is it even worth a small stake on Le Pen after Macron's price shortens further but before the Kremlin makes a move, and when might that be to within a few days?0 -
On the subject of French elections, if you haven't watched this, I would recommend it:
http://www.channel4.com/programmes/spin
There has been a 3rd series, but not on Walter Presents yet.0 -
More probably dessert camouflage and he got his timing wrong by an hour or two.RobD said:
Could have been desert camouflage...notme said:
One can only assume this part of France doesn't look like a jungle.TwistedFireStopper said:
How did they see him if he was camouflaged?FrancisUrquhart said:More details...
https://twitter.com/kayburley/status/8449053557380382720 -
Why would we assume that there is any dirt on Macron? He was economy minister for about two minutes, and was an investment banker before that.rural_voter said:
If Putin has access to FSB dirt on Macron, he'll release it at the right time, which is after the choice is down to Macron and Le Pen.Chris said:
But on the other hand, how many people predicted that Clinton would lose the electoral college despite winning the popular vote by 2.1%?FormerToryOrange said:
So Macron's chances of winning are 0.3% higher according to this outfit than Hilary's were. It's a margin of comfort I suppose.AlastairMeeks said:Since it's directly relevant to this thread, I'll repost this FPT:
AlastairMeeks said:I think this got lost in all the drama yesterday:
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/844666461385842689
The precision is, of course, ridiculous. The thrust of the numbers is interesting, though it seems to me to understate the chance of a shock. @Cyan will be appalled to see that his horse isn't even listed as a starter.
For completeness, this was the site's closing prediction for the US election:
http://www.thecrosstab.com/2016 Forecast/
It's looking like Macron will do it, but I'm far from convinced it's an 85% chance.
Is it even worth a small stake on Le Pen after Macron's price shortens further but before the Kremlin makes a move, and when might that be to within a few days?
He may be gay, or have had an affair or two (or he may not), but the odds on (a) there being dirt on Macron, (b) it only being known to the FSB, and (c) it being enough to swing the election have to be quite small, I would have thought. What, a 2% possibility? 5% at most.
More likely, there is polling error. Centre-right candidates have been outperforming their poll scores for a couple of years now - the Conservatives in the UK, the PP in Spain, the Republicans in the US and the VVD in the Netherlands all outperformed, often by large margins.
And the FN has typically underperfomed its polls shares (3-5% in 2015). If Fillon is on 20% in the final polls and MLP on 24-5%, then could he (damaged as he is) slip past her and into the second round?0 -
Thoughts on the headline?
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People on my twitter are annoyed by May's 'British born' as it means 'not really British'williamglenn said:Thoughts on the headline?
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Police believe the man responsible for the attack on Westminster on Wednesday is Khalid Masood. Age 52, born in Kent.
http://www.itv.com/news/2017-03-23/westminster-terror-attacker-named-by-police/0 -
BREAKING: UK police name Westminster attack suspect
London police have named the man they believe was responsible for the attacks on Westminster yesterday.
In a statement, the Metropolitan Police said Khalid Masood, age 52, was born in Kent and most recently lived in the West Midlands.0 -
Scotland Yard said Masood had previous convictions for assaults, including GBH, possession of offensive weapons and public order offences.
'His first conviction was in November 1983 for criminal damage and his last conviction was in December 2003 for possession of a knife.
It is believed the attacker was not on an MI5 list of 3,000 people thought to be capable of mounting an attack, The Guardian reported.0 -
The Taliban have captured the crucial south Afghan district of Sangin after a year-long battle, officials say. Government forces say they have made a tactical retreat from the centre of Sangin. A spokesman for Helmand's governor confirmed the district police and governor's headquarters were now in militant hands.
Almost a quarter of British troops killed during the UK's combat mission in Afghanistan died defending Sangin.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-393653300 -
Khalid from Kent.0
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Tragic.FrancisUrquhart said:The Taliban have captured the crucial south Afghan district of Sangin after a year-long battle, officials say. Government forces say they have made a tactical retreat from the centre of Sangin. A spokesman for Helmand's governor confirmed the district police and governor's headquarters were now in militant hands.
Almost a quarter of British troops killed during the UK's combat mission in Afghanistan died defending Sangin.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-393653300 -
Known locally as Kev from Kent?TOPPING said:Khalid from Kent.
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Good afternoon, everyone.
If it's an Islamic/Islamist terror attack, that should be the focus. The fact he happened to be born in this country is irrelevant.
By that logic, the 7/7 attack should've been all about them (3/4) being from Beeston.
It's mealy-mouthed to only refer to Islamic fundamentalism when worrying about a far right response (the first time it was mentioned on the news last night was when the police officer doing the late press conference referred to such a concern).
Of course, when attacks aren't of that nature (Breivik being the most obvious example), that should also be made clear.0 -
Mr DJL,
"And of most terrorists being lone wolves who are clueless about how and where to buy guns."
Frank Gardiner this morning on R5L was saying this is a myth. They virtually never work alone. They may not have companions, but they do have helpers. I also wondered about guns, but if they're on a watch-list of any kind, they might be cautious about attracting unwanted attention.
I'm sympathetic to the "Let's show them we're not cowed' theme, but I suspect they're not entirely bothered. They regard us (and most other sects of Islam) as less than dogs anyway.0 -
But was he a Kentish Khalid or a Khalid of Kent?TOPPING said:Khalid from Kent.
Or perhaps there's a new category, Kent born Khalid.0 -
If this actually happened, it must be the stupidest case I have ever heard.NickPalmer said:
I've no idea about the case, of course, but I'm baffled why anyone ever would have false signatures on a nomination paper - even a Monster Raving Loony candidate can rustle up a dozen names without too much difficulty. And who you actually get to nominate you is almost irrelevant - nobody ever bothers to look (except your opponents).dr_spyn said:Bob Spink in a bit of local difficulty.
https://twitter.com/BBCEssex/status/8449104558480998410 -
Totally O/T, but also left field news...
Portsmouth are to enter into exclusive discussions with former Walt Disney chief executive Michael Eisner about a potential takeover of the club.0 -
No electoral college in France and no second round in the USA. Makes big difference.Chris said:
But on the other hand, how many people predicted that Clinton would lose the electoral college despite winning the popular vote by 2.1%?FormerToryOrange said:
So Macron's chances of winning are 0.3% higher according to this outfit than Hilary's were. It's a margin of comfort I suppose.AlastairMeeks said:Since it's directly relevant to this thread, I'll repost this FPT:
AlastairMeeks said:I think this got lost in all the drama yesterday:
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/844666461385842689
The precision is, of course, ridiculous. The thrust of the numbers is interesting, though it seems to me to understate the chance of a shock. @Cyan will be appalled to see that his horse isn't even listed as a starter.
For completeness, this was the site's closing prediction for the US election:
http://www.thecrosstab.com/2016 Forecast/
It's looking like Macron will do it, but I'm far from convinced it's an 85% chance.0 -
That's an unusual age for a terrorist. Similar to Thomas Mair.rcs1000 said:BREAKING: UK police name Westminster attack suspect
London police have named the man they believe was responsible for the attacks on Westminster yesterday.
In a statement, the Metropolitan Police said Khalid Masood, age 52, was born in Kent and most recently lived in the West Midlands.0 -
https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/844937978527043585Theuniondivvie said:
But was he a Kentish Khalid or a Khalid of Kent?TOPPING said:Khalid from Kent.
Or perhaps there's a new category, Kent born Khalid.0 -
I stay in the Hilton Groenplaats when I go to Antwerp, and have walked along Mier towards the station (and diamond district)FrancisUrquhart said:Looking at the pictures of where this guy was trying to attack it seems like the people of Antwerp have had a very lucky escape.
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Mr. Pong, indeed. Most terrorists (or violent people throughout history) have been young men. That said, plenty who are older have joined the likes of ISIS, so it's unusual but not an especial shock.
Mr. Urquhart, I'm not au fait with football. Is Portsmouth a Mickey Mouse club?0 -
So we now have a terrorist from the same county as Farage.TheScreamingEagles said:
https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/844937978527043585Theuniondivvie said:
But was he a Kentish Khalid or a Khalid of Kent?TOPPING said:Khalid from Kent.
Or perhaps there's a new category, Kent born Khalid.0 -
I would say his nationality is far more important than his religion. I find the fact that someone British born should choose to behave like this is far more concerning than that he should self designate as an islamistMorris_Dancer said:Good afternoon, everyone.
If it's an Islamic/Islamist terror attack, that should be the focus. The fact he happened to be born in this country is irrelevant.
By that logic, the 7/7 attack should've been all about them (3/4) being from Beeston.
It's mealy-mouthed to only refer to Islamic fundamentalism when worrying about a far right response (the first time it was mentioned on the news last night was when the police officer doing the late press conference referred to such a concern).
Of course, when attacks aren't of that nature (Breivik being the most obvious example), that should also be made clear.0 -
These days they are. They are in the lowest league of professional football. I am shocked such an individual would even know Portsmouth FC exists given they don't play in the PREEEEEMier League.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Pong, indeed. Most terrorists (or violent people throughout history) have been young men. That said, plenty who are older have joined the likes of ISIS, so it's unusual but not an especial shock.
Mr. Urquhart, I'm not au fait with football. Is Portsmouth a Mickey Mouse club?0 -
Mr. Roger, the common factor for almost all terrorism in recent years has been the religious zealotry of the perpetrators, not nationality.
The 7/7 bombers and 21/7 failures were all British.
This isn't a problem with extreme Britons. It's a problem with extreme Islamic fundamentalists.0 -
Actually his being born here might be very relevant for two reasons. First is the second generation effect whereby children of immigrants tend to have a more idealised view of the old country than do their parents who actually lived there. Second, it suggests any radicalisation occurred here, so it might be worth investigating how that happened.Morris_Dancer said:Good afternoon, everyone.
If it's an Islamic/Islamist terror attack, that should be the focus. The fact he happened to be born in this country is irrelevant.
By that logic, the 7/7 attack should've been all about them (3/4) being from Beeston.
It's mealy-mouthed to only refer to Islamic fundamentalism when worrying about a far right response (the first time it was mentioned on the news last night was when the police officer doing the late press conference referred to such a concern).
Of course, when attacks aren't of that nature (Breivik being the most obvious example), that should also be made clear.
On an unrelated note, governments of both stripes seem inordinately fond of faith schools.0 -
Lol.TheScreamingEagles said:
https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/844937978527043585Theuniondivvie said:
But was he a Kentish Khalid or a Khalid of Kent?TOPPING said:Khalid from Kent.
Or perhaps there's a new category, Kent born Khalid.
I've been wrong before, but a slight feeling in the air that the Farage/Banks/Hopkins etc Trajectory of Fuckwittery may be on its downward path.0 -
Personally I don't draw much comfort from the fact that people who have been born and raised in this country still seem ready to attack it. It seems that some people are dis-integrating.
Though obviously it does completely undermine the swivel-eyed attacks on recent immigration, which seems to have no particular relevance to recent events except to provide another subject about which the empty vessels can make most noise.0 -
On Masood,Did I hear on the news he was a English teacher,if so,how the hell did that happen with all those GBH convictions.0
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I would say his religion is a far more determining factor regarding his behaviour than where he was born.Roger said:
I would say his nationality is far more important than his religion. I find the fact that someone British born should choose to behave like this is far more concerning than that he should self designate as an islamistMorris_Dancer said:Good afternoon, everyone.
If it's an Islamic/Islamist terror attack, that should be the focus. The fact he happened to be born in this country is irrelevant.
By that logic, the 7/7 attack should've been all about them (3/4) being from Beeston.
It's mealy-mouthed to only refer to Islamic fundamentalism when worrying about a far right response (the first time it was mentioned on the news last night was when the police officer doing the late press conference referred to such a concern).
Of course, when attacks aren't of that nature (Breivik being the most obvious example), that should also be made clear.0 -
Taking poetry slams to their logical conclusion.Tykejohnno said:On Masood,Did I hear on the news he was a English teacher,if so,how the hell did that happen with all those GBH convictions.
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Some of the papers are reporting this, they are also reporting he had a number of aliases. Perhaps he slipped through the checks by using his alternative identities.Tykejohnno said:On Masood,Did I hear on the news he was a English teacher,if so,how the hell did that happen with all those GBH convictions.
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Maybe maybe not but it puts into question Nigel's appearance in front of a large poster of Turkish would-be immigrants together with the implication that we must stop importing terrorism.Jason said:
I would say his religion is a far more determining factor regarding his behaviour than where he was born.Roger said:
I would say his nationality is far more important than his religion. I find the fact that someone British born should choose to behave like this is far more concerning than that he should self designate as an islamistMorris_Dancer said:Good afternoon, everyone.
If it's an Islamic/Islamist terror attack, that should be the focus. The fact he happened to be born in this country is irrelevant.
By that logic, the 7/7 attack should've been all about them (3/4) being from Beeston.
It's mealy-mouthed to only refer to Islamic fundamentalism when worrying about a far right response (the first time it was mentioned on the news last night was when the police officer doing the late press conference referred to such a concern).
Of course, when attacks aren't of that nature (Breivik being the most obvious example), that should also be made clear.0 -
Or the authorities "did a Rotherham".FrancisUrquhart said:
Some of the papers are reporting this, they are also reporting he had a number of aliases. Perhaps he slipped through the checks by using his alternative identities.Tykejohnno said:On Masood,Did I hear on the news he was a English teacher,if so,how the hell did that happen with all those GBH convictions.
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Well we also know that a number of schools in Birmingham have an interesting view of what a teacher should be like.SandyRentool said:
Or the authorities "did a Rotherham".FrancisUrquhart said:
Some of the papers are reporting this, they are also reporting he had a number of aliases. Perhaps he slipped through the checks by using his alternative identities.Tykejohnno said:On Masood,Did I hear on the news he was a English teacher,if so,how the hell did that happen with all those GBH convictions.
However, at this moment in time by English teacher we don't know if that is in a traditional school or language school or something else.0 -
Clearly under an Australian-style points based system we wouldn't give terrorists work visas as we already have enoughTOPPING said:
Maybe maybe not but it puts into question Nigel's appearance in front of a large poster of Turkish would-be immigrants together with the implication that we must stop importing terrorism.Jason said:
I would say his religion is a far more determining factor regarding his behaviour than where he was born.Roger said:
I would say his nationality is far more important than his religion. I find the fact that someone British born should choose to behave like this is far more concerning than that he should self designate as an islamistMorris_Dancer said:Good afternoon, everyone.
If it's an Islamic/Islamist terror attack, that should be the focus. The fact he happened to be born in this country is irrelevant.
By that logic, the 7/7 attack should've been all about them (3/4) being from Beeston.
It's mealy-mouthed to only refer to Islamic fundamentalism when worrying about a far right response (the first time it was mentioned on the news last night was when the police officer doing the late press conference referred to such a concern).
Of course, when attacks aren't of that nature (Breivik being the most obvious example), that should also be made clear.0
