politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As ICM reports another gigantic CON lead Number 10 moves to sq

They know Osborne will be leader in the future.

https://twitter.com/owenjbennett/status/843856411134255104

Mr. Rog, a bit like this?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uDXtVlG2VW0

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

Casino_Royale said:

notme said:

Casino_Royale said:

But, will these leads hold for another three years?

Next year, and 2019, will be pivotal years. But, even if Labour chuck out Corbyn post-Brexit one wonders whether they can claw this deficit back inside 12 months.

You can't fatten a pig on market day.

I expect the Conservatives want to be going into GE2020 with the deficit 2-4 years away from flipping to an absolute surplus, a few wins on Brexit already banked (blue passports, a few nice trade deals in the pipeline, and some extra migration controls) and ask the electorate if they want Labour to ruin it all again.

I got my new drivers licence the other day. Super impressed it has a union flag on it. It expires in 2019. Can't wait to get one sans the European Union flag.

I insisted to the dealership that the numberplate for my new Jaguar came without an EU flag on it.

And it didn't.

It did come with customised Union flag wheel badges, which I specifically ordered.

I have to renew my passport next year. I am genuinely intrigued to know what it will look like. They surely can't keep printing the old EU passports, which will be obsolete a year later.

The design of passports (in terms of size, features, layout, RFID) is set internationally, so that will likely not change at all. The European Union is only mentioned in two places: on the front cover in a smaller font than UNITED KINGDOM, and on page three (again in relatively small font). I would expect that your passport will lose those two references to the EU next year.

Now, will it go black? Of course, there is nothing to stop the UK having a black passport now. Croatia, for example, is in the EU and has very dark blue passport. My guess is that by 2020 we'll probably return to black, but otherwise the design (other than losing the words "European Union") will be absolutely the same as it is now.

It will also - at some point - lose all the foreign translations of the words - German to Maltese to Polish, and go back to just English, with perhaps Welsh, and Scots Gaelic? Maybe French (I hope not)

The old British passport had French translations in, presumably as it was the lingua franca in the old days.

Now that English is the 'language of the Franks' we should probably start translating that phrase just to rub it in.

Passports? Who needs passports? We are the United Kingdom. We don't need no stinking passports. Certainly not when we were landing on the beaches of Normandy, to bail Europe out from itself....

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Tory lead before the spiral of silence adjustment was 21%

Pre spiral of silence adjustment, Scottish sub sample amusement

SNP 47% Con 30% Lab 12% LD 2% UKIP 4% Greens 5%

https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/2017_guardian_march17_poll2.pdf

Labour in Scotland on...... 12.

12.

That's terminal, I think. Has any major party ever come back from national polling that low?

Unless the SNP split over a lost referendum, or SLAB suddenly find an incredible, inspirational leader, Labour are finished north of the Border.

Sub sample old bean.

There's enough proper polling from Scotland showing Labour are buggered.

Of course. But as you say, proper polling is almost as grim.

Makes you wonder, if Corbyn/Labour is polling that badly in Scotland, where you think Corbynism would be the most popular, just how badly Corbyn is polling in England, especially in the marginals.

Inner London surely is where Corbynism is expected to be most popular?

London is about the least Corbyn friendly part of the country in terms of the membership. The North West is where he is most popular.

"Inner" London, as I said, or London as a whole?

I rather meant where his leadership of the party will lose least votes. How do you decipher the membership stats?

Only 45%?

Lots of people appear to want the old style passports back.

But they can't decide if they were blue or black.

I'm hoping for the word "Republic" to appear on my passport before I'm too old to use one. But I'm not hopeful.

BannedInParis said:

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

This Momentum spokesperson is extraordinary.
https://twitter.com/daily_politics/status/843826111242948609

Do you mean because you cant tell if she is a bloke? Looks a bit like the bass player out of the Jimi Hendrix Experience

the absolute state of that

Speaks well though!

SandyRentool said:

Lots of people appear to want the old style passports back.

But they can't decide if they were blue or black.

I'm hoping for the word "Republic" to appear on my passport before I'm too old to use one. But I'm not hopeful.

So long as it doesn't say Dieu et mon droit on the passport.

david_herdson said:

Midlands (derived)

Con 56 (!!!)
Lab 23
UKIP 11
LD 7
Grn 3

We do what we can.

david_herdson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Tory lead before the spiral of silence adjustment was 21%

Pre spiral of silence adjustment, Scottish sub sample amusement

SNP 47% Con 30% Lab 12% LD 2% UKIP 4% Greens 5%

https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/2017_guardian_march17_poll2.pdf

Labour in Scotland on...... 12.

12.

That's terminal, I think. Has any major party ever come back from national polling that low?

Unless the SNP split over a lost referendum, or SLAB suddenly find an incredible, inspirational leader, Labour are finished north of the Border.

Sub sample old bean.

There's enough proper polling from Scotland showing Labour are buggered.

Of course. But as you say, proper polling is almost as grim.

Makes you wonder, if Corbyn/Labour is polling that badly in Scotland, where you think Corbynism would be the most popular, just how badly Corbyn is polling in England, especially in the marginals.

The regional breakdowns from today's ICM (other than Scotland, which has already been discussed):

Wales

Con 38
Lab 27
Plaid 16
UKIP 9
Grn 5
LD 3

North of England (derived)

Con 40
Lab 36
LD 11
UKIP 11
Grn 3

Midlands (derived)

Con 56 (!!!)
Lab 23
UKIP 11
LD 7
Grn 3

South

Con 49
Lab 23
LD 12
UKIP 12
Grn 3

I've long posited that the West Midlands will be an utter bloodbath for a Corbyn led Labour party.

Those past IRA connections and the memories of the pub bombings might lead to an utter shellacking.

Stark_Dawning said:

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

Casino_Royale said:

notme said:

Casino_Royale said:

But, will these leads hold for another three years?

Next year, and 2019, will be pivotal years. But, even if Labour chuck out Corbyn post-Brexit one wonders whether they can claw this deficit back inside 12 months.

You can't fatten a pig on market day.

I expect the Conservatives want to be going into GE2020 with the deficit 2-4 years away from flipping to an absolute surplus, a few wins on Brexit already banked (blue passports, a few nice trade deals in the pipeline, and some extra migration controls) and ask the electorate if they want Labour to ruin it all again.

I got my new drivers licence the other day. Super impressed it has a union flag on it. It expires in 2019. Can't wait to get one sans the European Union flag.

I insisted to the dealership that the numberplate for my new Jaguar came without an EU flag on it.

And it didn't.

It did come with customised Union flag wheel badges, which I specifically ordered.

I have to renew my passport next year. I am genuinely intrigued to know what it will look like. They surely can't keep printing the old EU passports, which will be obsolete a year later.

The design of passports (in terms of size, features, layout, RFID) is set internationally, so that will likely not change at all. The European Union is only mentioned in two places: on the front cover in a smaller font than UNITED KINGDOM, and on page three (again in relatively small font). I would expect that your passport will lose those two references to the EU next year.

Now, will it go black? Of course, there is nothing to stop the UK having a black passport now. Croatia, for example, is in the EU and has very dark blue passport. My guess is that by 2020 we'll probably return to black, but otherwise the design (other than losing the words "European Union") will be absolutely the same as it is now.

That's put a bit of a downer on it really. On PB this very morning, someone was citing the return of the Great British blue passports as one of the great prizes of Brexit.

The passports are a microcosm of the harsh reality of Brexit - we think we've now got the ability to do what we like, but in practice we'll have to follow the rules that everyone else follows and won't necessarily have a say in them.

SeanT said:

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

Casino_Royale said:

notme said:

Casino_Royale said:

But, will these leads hold for another three years?

Next year, and 2019, will be pivotal years. But, even if Labour chuck out Corbyn post-Brexit one wonders whether they can claw this deficit back inside 12 months.

You can't fatten a pig on market day.

I expect the Conservatives want to be going into GE2020 with the deficit 2-4 years away from flipping to an absolute surplus, a few wins on Brexit already banked (blue passports, a few nice trade deals in the pipeline, and some extra migration controls) and ask the electorate if they want Labour to ruin it all again.

I got my new drivers licence the other day. Super impressed it has a union flag on it. It expires in 2019. Can't wait to get one sans the European Union flag.

I insisted to the dealership that the numberplate for my new Jaguar came without an EU flag on it.

And it didn't.

It did come with customised Union flag wheel badges, which I specifically ordered.

I have to renew my passport next year. I am genuinely intrigued to know what it will look like. They surely can't keep printing the old EU passports, which will be obsolete a year later.

The design of passports (in terms of size, features, layout, RFID) is set internationally, so that will likely not change at all. The European Union is only mentioned in two places: on the front cover in a smaller font than UNITED KINGDOM, and on page three (again in relatively small font). I would expect that your passport will lose those two references to the EU next year.

Now, will it go black? Of course, there is nothing to stop the UK having a black passport now. Croatia, for example, is in the EU and has very dark blue passport. My guess is that by 2020 we'll probably return to black, but otherwise the design (other than losing the words "European Union") will be absolutely the same as it is now.

It will also - at some point - lose all the foreign translations of the words - German to Maltese to Polish, and go back to just English, with perhaps Welsh, and Scots Gaelic? Maybe French (I hope not)

I think the international standard mandates that all passports have English and French transaltions

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Re SLab, from a full sized poll.

https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/843856307815940101

How did that happen?

A question to which SLab are currently ramming their fingers into their ears and going LALALALA.

Obviously the usual reason of being the Tories biaches during the last kerfuffle. Personally I think their inability to keep a consistent and clearly expressed position on anything also has something to do with it, eg Europe, Devo, Trident, the Constitution.

And they're turnips.

SandyRentool said:

I'm hoping for the word "Republic" to appear on my passport before I'm too old to use one. But I'm not hopeful.

I have a premonition that in a future referendum campaign you'll be pushing leaflets through people's doors saying, "The monarchy costs us £xxx million a week. Let's spend it on the NHS instead."

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Tory lead before the spiral of silence adjustment was 21%

Pre spiral of silence adjustment, Scottish sub sample amusement

SNP 47% Con 30% Lab 12% LD 2% UKIP 4% Greens 5%

https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/2017_guardian_march17_poll2.pdf

Labour in Scotland on...... 12.

12.

That's terminal, I think. Has any major party ever come back from national polling that low?

Unless the SNP split over a lost referendum, or SLAB suddenly find an incredible, inspirational leader, Labour are finished north of the Border.

Sub sample old bean.

There's enough proper polling from Scotland showing Labour are buggered.

Of course. But as you say, proper polling is almost as grim.

Makes you wonder, if Corbyn/Labour is polling that badly in Scotland, where you think Corbynism would be the most popular, just how badly Corbyn is polling in England, especially in the marginals.

Inner London surely is where Corbynism is expected to be most popular?

London is about the least Corbyn friendly part of the country in terms of the membership. The North West is where he is most popular.

"Inner" London, as I said, or London as a whole?

I rather meant where his leadership of the party will lose least votes. How do you decipher the membership stats?

It'll be a mixed picture for Labour in inner London. South of the river I suspect that seats may go or at least turn very marginal, ditto in the west. In the north and east Labour will do better; though Hampstead, which is inner and outer, is just about a nailed on Tory gain.

In terms of member views, the recent opinion polls have shown backing for Corbyn collapsing in London.

TheScreamingEagles said:

david_herdson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Tory lead before the spiral of silence adjustment was 21%

Pre spiral of silence adjustment, Scottish sub sample amusement

SNP 47% Con 30% Lab 12% LD 2% UKIP 4% Greens 5%

https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/2017_guardian_march17_poll2.pdf

Labour in Scotland on...... 12.

12.

That's terminal, I think. Has any major party ever come back from national polling that low?

Unless the SNP split over a lost referendum, or SLAB suddenly find an incredible, inspirational leader, Labour are finished north of the Border.

Sub sample old bean.

There's enough proper polling from Scotland showing Labour are buggered.

Of course. But as you say, proper polling is almost as grim.

Makes you wonder, if Corbyn/Labour is polling that badly in Scotland, where you think Corbynism would be the most popular, just how badly Corbyn is polling in England, especially in the marginals.

The regional breakdowns from today's ICM (other than Scotland, which has already been discussed):

Wales

Con 38
Lab 27
Plaid 16
UKIP 9
Grn 5
LD 3

North of England (derived)

Con 40
Lab 36
LD 11
UKIP 11
Grn 3

Midlands (derived)

Con 56 (!!!)
Lab 23
UKIP 11
LD 7
Grn 3

South

Con 49
Lab 23
LD 12
UKIP 12
Grn 3

I've long posited that the West Midlands will be an utter bloodbath for a Corbyn led Labour party.

Those past IRA connections and the memories of the pub bombings might lead to an utter shellacking.

Totally agree - it will be absolute carnage.

Mr. Rentool, don't talk rot. For a start, it's only the South that's a People's Republic. And when we were last independent it was with King Erik Bloodaxe as king of York.

May's US VOGUE interview:

http://www.vogue.com/article/british-prime-minister-theresa-may-interview-brexit-political-views

david_herdson said:

SandyRentool said:

Lots of people appear to want the old style passports back.

But they can't decide if they were blue or black.

I'm hoping for the word "Republic" to appear on my passport before I'm too old to use one. But I'm not hopeful.

You could always apply to be French.

Assuming they don't bring their own monarchy back.

They could honour the Treaty of Troyes.

williamglenn said:

SandyRentool said:

I'm hoping for the word "Republic" to appear on my passport before I'm too old to use one. But I'm not hopeful.

I have a premonition that in a future referendum campaign you'll be pushing leaflets through people's doors saying, "The monarchy costs us £xxx million a week. Let's spend it on the NHS instead."

Excellent!!!

not_on_fire said:

Stark_Dawning said:

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

Casino_Royale said:

notme said:

Casino_Royale said:

But, will these leads hold for another three years?

Next year, and 2019, will be pivotal years. But, even if Labour chuck out Corbyn post-Brexit one wonders whether they can claw this deficit back inside 12 months.

You can't fatten a pig on market day.

I expect the Conservatives want to be going into GE2020 with the deficit 2-4 years away from flipping to an absolute surplus, a few wins on Brexit already banked (blue passports, a few nice trade deals in the pipeline, and some extra migration controls) and ask the electorate if they want Labour to ruin it all again.

I got my new drivers licence the other day. Super impressed it has a union flag on it. It expires in 2019. Can't wait to get one sans the European Union flag.

I insisted to the dealership that the numberplate for my new Jaguar came without an EU flag on it.

And it didn't.

It did come with customised Union flag wheel badges, which I specifically ordered.

I have to renew my passport next year. I am genuinely intrigued to know what it will look like. They surely can't keep printing the old EU passports, which will be obsolete a year later.

.

That's put a bit of a downer on it really. On PB this very morning, someone was citing the return of the Great British blue passports as one of the great prizes of Brexit.

The passports are a microcosm of the harsh reality of Brexit - we think we've now got the ability to do what we like, but in practice we'll have to follow the rules that everyone else follows and won't necessarily have a say in them.

Some would say we never seemed to have any say in them anyway.

That said, of all my niggles about the EU, the passport comes a long way down the list. I actually rather like it. I certainly prefer the size of it - which fits into a trouser pocket - to its British predecessor - which didn't.
I can also happily report that the EU-style passport can survive being accidentally left in a trouser pocket as the trousers in question are put through the wash.

I actually haven't had a passport since 2014, and I can't see myself needing one any time soon. Since having children - or, more specifically, since having school-age children - abroad is effectively financially unreachable.

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Tory lead before the spiral of silence adjustment was 21%

Pre spiral of silence adjustment, Scottish sub sample amusement

SNP 47% Con 30% Lab 12% LD 2% UKIP 4% Greens 5%

https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/2017_guardian_march17_poll2.pdf

Labour in Scotland on...... 12.

12.

That's terminal, I think. Has any major party ever come back from national polling that low?

Unless the SNP split over a lost referendum, or SLAB suddenly find an incredible, inspirational leader, Labour are finished north of the Border.

Sub sample old bean.

There's enough proper polling from Scotland showing Labour are buggered.

Of course. But as you say, proper polling is almost as grim.

Makes you wonder, if Corbyn/Labour is polling that badly in Scotland, where you think Corbynism would be the most popular, just how badly Corbyn is polling in England, especially in the marginals.

Inner London surely is where Corbynism is expected to be most popular?

London is about the least Corbyn friendly part of the country in terms of the membership. The North West is where he is most popular.

"Inner" London, as I said, or London as a whole?

I rather meant where his leadership of the party will lose least votes. How do you decipher the membership stats?

It'll be a mixed picture for Labour in inner London. South of the river I suspect that seats may go or at least turn very marginal, ditto in the west. In the north and east Labour will do better; though Hampstead, which is inner and outer, is just about a nailed on Tory gain.

In terms of member views, the recent opinion polls have shown backing for Corbyn collapsing in London.

This will sound like after timing, but in my original post I was going to say "North and East Inner London", but thought that was too specific.


Map of momentum groups

https://groups.peoplesmomentum.com/

TOPPING said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Re SLab, from a full sized poll.

https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/843856307815940101

How did that happen?

A question to which SLab are currently ramming their fingers into their ears and going LALALALA.
Obviously the usual reason of being the Tories biaches during the last kerfuffle. Personally I think their inability to keep a consistent and clearly expressed position on anything also has something to do with it, eg Europe, Devo, Trident, the Constitution.

And they're turnips..

Devo? Strange band. Saw them with The Clash Remote Control tour and a skinhead got up on stage and attacked them.

I would like to say I'd seen Europe in concert, but..

Theuniondivvie said:

TOPPING said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Re SLab, from a full sized poll.

https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/843856307815940101

How did that happen?

A question to which SLab are currently ramming their fingers into their ears and going LALALALA.
Obviously the usual reason of being the Tories biaches during the last kerfuffle. Personally I think their inability to keep a consistent and clearly expressed position on anything also has something to do with it, eg Europe, Devo, Trident, the Constitution.

And they're turnips..

Devo? Strange band. Saw them with The Clash Remote Control tour and a skinhead got up on stage and attacked them.

I would like to say I'd seen Europe in concert, but..

I've asked Mike if I can do the thread next Wednesday on the triggering of Article 50.

The headline will be 'Brexit: Europe, The Final Countdown'

Sean_F said:

rcs1000 said:

Things I learned today: "When applying for a passport or a national ID card, all Pakistanis are required to sign an oath declaring Mirza Ghulam Ahmad to be an impostor prophet and all Ahmadis to be non-Muslims."

Do you need to tell them what you consider to be the appropriate punishment for blasphemy?

The BBC were asking that question the other day

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TOPPING said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Re SLab, from a full sized poll.

https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/843856307815940101

How did that happen?

A question to which SLab are currently ramming their fingers into their ears and going LALALALA.
Obviously the usual reason of being the Tories biaches during the last kerfuffle. Personally I think their inability to keep a consistent and clearly expressed position on anything also has something to do with it, eg Europe, Devo, Trident, the Constitution.

And they're turnips..

Devo? Strange band. Saw them with The Clash Remote Control tour and a skinhead got up on stage and attacked them.

I would like to say I'd seen Europe in concert, but..

I've asked Mike if I can do the thread next Wednesday on the triggering of Article 50.

The headline will be 'Brexit: Europe, The Final Countdown'

I'm still sulking that no one acknowledged my A Day, B Day gag.

Assuming Scotland votes for independence (and at this stage I think it less than 50%, but I said the same about Brexit, so what do I know?) and Northern Ireland is frozen forever as the Transdniester of North West Europe, what do people think the residual country will be called? Candidates:

United Kingdom would be a joke. Foreigners and others would say the two words slowly and laugh.
Britain with or without the embarrassing adjective of "Great" is inaccurate in its geography as it refers to the whole island.
England and Wales is a bit like Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. There's a reason why serious countries don't have a conjunction.
Plain old England is perhaps the reality but the Welsh might be miffed.
Blighty has its attractions and can mean whatever you want it to mean, but outsiders wouldn't get the reference.
My preferred option, South Britain has a neat parallelism with the imperial designations of West Britain (Ireland) and North Britain (Scotland). The faint overtones of East Germany and North Korea (nuclear armed rogue state, bearing a grudge) can be dismissed.

CarlottaVance said:

May's US VOGUE interview:

http://www.vogue.com/article/british-prime-minister-theresa-may-interview-brexit-political-views

The Edina Monsoon of Brexit.

FF43 said:

Assuming Scotland votes for independence (and at this stage I think it less than 50%, but I said the same about Brexit, so what do I know?) and Northern Ireland is frozen forever as the Transdniester of North West Europe, what do people think the residual country will be called? Candidates:

United Kingdom would be a joke. Foreigners and others would say the two words slowly and laugh.
Britain with or without the embarrassing adjective of "Great" is inaccurate in its geography as it refers to the whole island.
England and Wales is a bit like Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. There's a reason why serious countries don't have a conjunction.
Plain old England is perhaps the reality but the Welsh might be miffed.
Blighty has its attractions and can mean whatever you want it to mean, but outsiders wouldn't get the reference.
My preferred option, South Britain has a neat parallelism with the imperial designations of West Britain (Ireland) and North Britain (Scotland). The faint overtones of East Germany and North Korea (nuclear armed rogue state, bearing a grudge) can be dismissed.

It will continue to be called the United Kingdom, of course.

FF43 said:

Assuming Scotland votes for independence (and at this stage I think it less than 50%, but I said the same about Brexit, so what do I know?) and Northern Ireland is frozen forever as the Transdniester of North West Europe, what do people think the residual country will be called? Candidates:

United Kingdom would be a joke. Foreigners and others would say the two words slowly and laugh.
Britain with or without the embarrassing adjective of "Great" is inaccurate in its geography as it refers to the whole island.
England and Wales is a bit like Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. There's a reason why serious countries don't have a conjunction.
Plain old England is perhaps the reality but the Welsh might be miffed.
Blighty has its attractions and can mean whatever you want it to mean, but outsiders wouldn't get the reference.
My preferred option, South Britain has a neat parallelism with the imperial designations of West Britain (Ireland) and North Britain (Scotland). The faint overtones of East Germany and North Korea (nuclear armed rogue state, bearing a grudge) can be dismissed.

How about Little Britain?

Floater said:

Sean_F said:

rcs1000 said:

Things I learned today: "When applying for a passport or a national ID card, all Pakistanis are required to sign an oath declaring Mirza Ghulam Ahmad to be an impostor prophet and all Ahmadis to be non-Muslims."

Do you need to tell them what you consider to be the appropriate punishment for blasphemy?

The BBC were asking that question the other day

And then trying to weasel out of it by saying it was 'poorly worded'.

Yorkcity said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Re SLab, from a full sized poll.

https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/843856307815940101

How did that happen?

A question to which SLab are currently ramming their fingers into their ears and going LALALALA.

Obviously the usual reason of being the Tories biaches during the last kerfuffle. Personally I think their inability to keep a consistent and clearly expressed position on anything also has something to do with it, eg Europe, Devo, Trident, the Constitution.

And they're turnips.

A few weeks ago I spoke to a politics professor about Scottish Labour, he thinks Labour are unlucky in some respects, he said people like Donald Dewar, John Smith, and Robin Cook had their lives cruelly robbed short.

They might have ensured a much healthier victory for No in 2014 as well as being better equipped to deal with the aftermath of the result as well as mentoring the new generation of SLAB.

Instead we get the likes of Iain Gray.

Thanks TSE seems a good observation .However when Hugh Gaitskell died they had an election winner in Harold Wilson the same with John Smith followed by Tony Blair.However as you say to lose so much experience from Scotland has not helped.

It's a shame Jack McConnell didn;t hang around longer after the 2007 election really. Not in the league of Dewar or Cook, but a very solid first minister from memory.

FF43 said:

Assuming Scotland votes for independence (and at this stage I think it less than 50%, but I said the same about Brexit, so what do I know?) and Northern Ireland is frozen forever as the Transdniester of North West Europe, what do people think the residual country will be called? Candidates:

United Kingdom would be a joke. Foreigners and others would say the two words slowly and laugh.
Britain with or without the embarrassing adjective of "Great" is inaccurate in its geography as it refers to the whole island.
England and Wales is a bit like Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. There's a reason why serious countries don't have a conjunction.
Plain old England is perhaps the reality but the Welsh might be miffed.
Blighty has its attractions and can mean whatever you want it to mean, but outsiders wouldn't get the reference.
My preferred option, South Britain has a neat parallelism with the imperial designations of West Britain (Ireland) and North Britain (Scotland). The faint overtones of East Germany and North Korea (nuclear armed rogue state, bearing a grudge) can be dismissed.

Ingrowing Britain

AlastairMeeks said:

FF43 said:

Assuming Scotland votes for independence (and at this stage I think it less than 50%, but I said the same about Brexit, so what do I know?) and Northern Ireland is frozen forever as the Transdniester of North West Europe, what do people think the residual country will be called? Candidates:

United Kingdom would be a joke. Foreigners and others would say the two words slowly and laugh.
Britain with or without the embarrassing adjective of "Great" is inaccurate in its geography as it refers to the whole island.
England and Wales is a bit like Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. There's a reason why serious countries don't have a conjunction.
Plain old England is perhaps the reality but the Welsh might be miffed.
Blighty has its attractions and can mean whatever you want it to mean, but outsiders wouldn't get the reference.
My preferred option, South Britain has a neat parallelism with the imperial designations of West Britain (Ireland) and North Britain (Scotland). The faint overtones of East Germany and North Korea (nuclear armed rogue state, bearing a grudge) can be dismissed.

Ingrowing Britain

I'm using rUK for the next 50 years if there is a split.

rcs1000 said:

Lennon said:

rcs1000 said:

Passport fact of the day. Only one country has a genuinely black passport. Said country is in Europe.

Can anyone name it?

Vatican City?

Exactly right. Did you Google?

No - but wouldn't have got it if you hadn't said 'Leichtenstien was good, but not right' - made me think of all the micro-states and which one was likely to he allowed to get away with being 'different' because 'history'.

Is Labour yet sufficiently unpopular that Andy Burnham is in any danger in Greater Manchester. We've discussed in the past how Corbynism maybe isn't the turn-off in Manchester that it is elsewhere, but Manchester <> Greater Manchester.
To my mind, if Jane Brophy (LD) can get into the second round against Andy Burnham, she could win, as more Conservative votes will transfer to her than to him. But the reverse is not necessarily true - i.e. if Sean Anstee gets into the final two against Andy Burnham then Jane Brophy's votes don't necessarily transfer to him.
UKIP further complicates matters; Central Manchester isn't particularly strong UKIP territory, but outside the M60 they're a non-negligible presence, and make vote transfers in a two-round system complicated.

Cookie said:

not_on_fire said:

Stark_Dawning said:

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

Casino_Royale said:

notme said:

Casino_Royale said:

But, will these leads hold for another three years?

Next year, and 2019, will be pivotal years. But, even if Labour chuck out Corbyn post-Brexit one wonders whether they can claw this deficit back inside 12 months.

You can't fatten a pig on market day.

I expect the Conservatives want to be going into GE2020 with the deficit 2-4 years away from flipping to an absolute surplus, a few wins on Brexit already banked (blue passports, a few nice trade deals in the pipeline, and some extra migration controls) and ask the electorate if they want Labour to ruin it all again.

I got my new drivers licence the other day. Super impressed it has a union flag on it. It expires in 2019. Can't wait to get one sans the European Union flag.

I insisted to the dealership that the numberplate for my new Jaguar came without an EU flag on it.

And it didn't.

It did come with customised Union flag wheel badges, which I specifically ordered.

I have to renew my passport next year. I am genuinely intrigued to know what it will look like. They surely can't keep printing the old EU passports, which will be obsolete a year later.

.

That's put a bit of a downer on it really. On PB this very morning, someone was citing the return of the Great British blue passports as one of the great prizes of Brexit.

The passports are a microcosm of the harsh reality of Brexit - we think we've now got the ability to do what we like, but in practice we'll have to follow the rules that everyone else follows and won't necessarily have a say in them.

Some would say we never seemed to have any say in them anyway.

That said, of all my niggles about the EU, the passport comes a long way down the list. I actually rather like it. I certainly prefer the size of it - which fits into a trouser pocket - to its British predecessor - which didn't.
I can also happily report that the EU-style passport can survive being accidentally left in a trouser pocket as the trousers in question are put through the wash.

I actually haven't had a passport since 2014, and I can't see myself needing one any time soon. Since having children - or, more specifically, since having school-age children - abroad is effectively financially unreachable.

Indeed, I don't think many people would seriously want the old size passport back, with the possible exception of Daily Mail readers who never travel.

Pulpstar said:

AlastairMeeks said:

FF43 said:

Assuming Scotland votes for independence (and at this stage I think it less than 50%, but I said the same about Brexit, so what do I know?) and Northern Ireland is frozen forever as the Transdniester of North West Europe, what do people think the residual country will be called? Candidates:

United Kingdom would be a joke. Foreigners and others would say the two words slowly and laugh.
Britain with or without the embarrassing adjective of "Great" is inaccurate in its geography as it refers to the whole island.
England and Wales is a bit like Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. There's a reason why serious countries don't have a conjunction.
Plain old England is perhaps the reality but the Welsh might be miffed.
Blighty has its attractions and can mean whatever you want it to mean, but outsiders wouldn't get the reference.
My preferred option, South Britain has a neat parallelism with the imperial designations of West Britain (Ireland) and North Britain (Scotland). The faint overtones of East Germany and North Korea (nuclear armed rogue state, bearing a grudge) can be dismissed.

Ingrowing Britain

I'm using rUK for the next 50 years if there is a split.

With my Unionist sympathies, I quite like that. It implies this madness can be overturned. A sort of United Kingdom in exile or Taiwan calling itself the Republic of China.

Yorkcity said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Re SLab, from a full sized poll.

https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/843856307815940101

How did that happen?

A question to which SLab are currently ramming their fingers into their ears and going LALALALA.

Obviously the usual reason of being the Tories biaches during the last kerfuffle. Personally I think their inability to keep a consistent and clearly expressed position on anything also has something to do with it, eg Europe, Devo, Trident, the Constitution.

And they're turnips.

A few weeks ago I spoke to a politics professor about Scottish Labour, he thinks Labour are unlucky in some respects, he said people like Donald Dewar, John Smith, and Robin Cook had their lives cruelly robbed short.

They might have ensured a much healthier victory for No in 2014 as well as being better equipped to deal with the aftermath of the result as well as mentoring the new generation of SLAB.

Instead we get the likes of Iain Gray.

Thanks TSE seems a good observation .However when Hugh Gaitskell died they had an election winner in Harold Wilson the same with John Smith followed by Tony Blair.However as you say to lose so much experience from Scotland has not helped.

But they would have lost it anyway. John Smith would be 78 now, Robin Cook would be 71 and Donald Dewar would be 79. Even if they'd lived, they'd all be retired some time ago. Perhaps they would have done more to bring through another generation but in reality, the next generation was not short of talent: Brown, Darling, Reid and Robertson, for example. It was the one after that - which the Brown-era Scottish Labour should have brought on - which is so disastrously short of talent.

rcs1000 said:

not_on_fire said:

SeanT said:

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

Casino_Royale said:

notme said:

Casino_Royale said:

But, will these leads hold for another three years?

Next year, and 2019, will be pivotal years. But, even if Labour chuck out Corbyn post-Brexit one wonders whether they can claw this deficit back inside 12 months.

You can't fatten a pig on market day.

I expect the Conservatives want to be going into GE2020 with the deficit 2-4 years away from flipping to an absolute surplus, a few wins on Brexit already banked (blue passports, a few nice trade deals in the pipeline, and some extra migration controls) and ask the electorate if they want Labour to ruin it all again.

I got my new drivers licence the other day. Super impressed it has a union flag on it. It expires in 2019. Can't wait to get one sans the European Union flag.

I insisted to the dealership that the numberplate for my new Jaguar came without an EU flag on it.

And it didn't.

It did come with customised Union flag wheel badges, which I specifically ordered.

I have to renew my passport next year. I am genuinely intrigued to know what it will look like. They surely can't keep printing the old EU passports, which will be obsolete a year later.

The design of passports (in terms of size, features, layout, RFID) is set internationally, so that will likely not change at all. The European Union is only mentioned in two places: on the front cover in a smaller font than UNITED KINGDOM, and on page three (again in relatively small font). I would expect that your passport will lose those two references to the EU next year.

Now, will it go black? Of course, there is nothing to stop the UK having a black passport now. Croatia, for example, is in the EU and has very dark blue passport. My guess is that by 2020 we'll probably return to black, but otherwise the design (other than losing the words "European Union") will be absolutely the same as it is now.

It will also - at some point - lose all the foreign translations of the words - German to Maltese to Polish, and go back to just English, with perhaps Welsh, and Scots Gaelic? Maybe French (I hope not)

I think the international standard mandates that all passports have English and French transaltions

It is an ICAO recommendation, but not an absolute requirement.

I am always amused by the French insistence that the official abbreviation of the "world organisation for animal health" is OIE.

Of course the full and official title will be:

The United Kingdom of England, Wales & Northern Ireland.

FF43 said:

Assuming Scotland votes for independence (and at this stage I think it less than 50%, but I said the same about Brexit, so what do I know?) and Northern Ireland is frozen forever as the Transdniester of North West Europe, what do people think the residual country will be called? Candidates:

United Kingdom would be a joke. Foreigners and others would say the two words slowly and laugh.
Britain with or without the embarrassing adjective of "Great" is inaccurate in its geography as it refers to the whole island.
England and Wales is a bit like Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. There's a reason why serious countries don't have a conjunction.
Plain old England is perhaps the reality but the Welsh might be miffed.
Blighty has its attractions and can mean whatever you want it to mean, but outsiders wouldn't get the reference.
My preferred option, South Britain has a neat parallelism with the imperial designations of West Britain (Ireland) and North Britain (Scotland). The faint overtones of East Germany and North Korea (nuclear armed rogue state, bearing a grudge) can be dismissed.

TCFKATUK

Charles said:

FF43 said:

Assuming Scotland votes for independence (and at this stage I think it less than 50%, but I said the same about Brexit, so what do I know?) and Northern Ireland is frozen forever as the Transdniester of North West Europe, what do people think the residual country will be called? Candidates:

United Kingdom would be a joke. Foreigners and others would say the two words slowly and laugh.
Britain with or without the embarrassing adjective of "Great" is inaccurate in its geography as it refers to the whole island.
England and Wales is a bit like Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. There's a reason why serious countries don't have a conjunction.
Plain old England is perhaps the reality but the Welsh might be miffed.
Blighty has its attractions and can mean whatever you want it to mean, but outsiders wouldn't get the reference.
My preferred option, South Britain has a neat parallelism with the imperial designations of West Britain (Ireland) and North Britain (Scotland). The faint overtones of East Germany and North Korea (nuclear armed rogue state, bearing a grudge) can be dismissed.

Just "the UK".

Doesn't have to stand for anything.

Like when Swiss Bank Corporation merged with Union Bank of Switzerland the resulting company was called UBS.

But it definitely didn't stand for anything.

At various times over the years, it stood for "Unemployed By Spring" or "Utter Bull Sh*t".

Carolus_Rex said:

Lennon said:

rcs1000 said:

Lennon said:

rcs1000 said:

Passport fact of the day. Only one country has a genuinely black passport. Said country is in Europe.

Can anyone name it?

Vatican City?

Exactly right. Did you Google?

No - but wouldn't have got it if you hadn't said 'Leichtenstien was good, but not right' - made me think of all the micro-states and which one was likely to he allowed to get away with being 'different' because 'history'.

Apart from (presumably) His Holiness, how many people actually carry Vatican City passports? Not a lot I imagine.

Money laundering cardinals and Mafiosi mainly.

Two very interesting ELABE second round French polls.

In one, Fillon's lead over Le Pen drops to just 12 points. In the other, Macron's increases to 26 points.

david_herdson said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Re SLab, from a full sized poll.

https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/843856307815940101

Never mind that, though it's remarkable enough. Look a little to the left in the table: Con at 48% with voters who backed No and at 41% (ahead of SNP) with those who didn't vote.

By one respondent out of seventeen - wonder what the MoE is on that!

What is surprising to me is this: over the last few months there have been various announcements by companies of investment (in some cases sizeable investment) in the UK. Now I cannot believe that these companies have not looked at the possibility of relocation elsewhere in Europe to take advantage of the Single Market and/or have not been wooed by the governments of other countries.

They knew when Article 50 would be triggered and the timing. They have heard what the PM has said about being out of the Single Market. They've heard what the EU Commission and various European leaders have said about no cherry picking / about the UK being a "third country" / about WTO and customs duties and the rest of it.

They may have been given some private assurances by the UK government but how much reliance can they place on these?

But despite all of this there seems to be no Gadarene rush for the doors to the exit from the UK. So what the hell is going on?

Is it:

1. Everyone is being impossibly naïve about what can be agreed in 2 years and what it will mean?

2. Everyone believes (or has been told) that the UK's opening position is a gambit only and that the likely outcome is something broadly similar to what we have now?

3. The UK is such a good place to do business that companies will stay regardless of hard Brexit and WTO rules and customs checks? Would be nice but seems a tad unlikely.

4. There have been private soundings with EU governments which have reassured these companies.

5. Companies hope that by staying in the UK they will effectively force the UK government to do a deal which favours them because the alternative is likely to be so horrendous. A high risk strategy.

And if not any of the above, what might be the reason or reasons?

Cyclefree said:

What is surprising to me is this: over the last few months there have been various announcements by companies of investment (in some cases sizeable investment) in the UK. Now I cannot believe that these companies have not looked at the possibility of relocation elsewhere in Europe to take advantage of the Single Market and/or have not been wooed by the governments of other countries.

They knew when Article 50 would be triggered and the timing. They have heard what the PM has said about being out of the Single Market. They've heard what the EU Commission and various European leaders have said about no cherry picking / about the UK being a "third country" / about WTO and customs duties and the rest of it.

They may have been given some private assurances by the UK government but how much reliance can they place on these?

But despite all of this there seems to be no Gadarene rush for the doors to the exit from the UK. So what the hell is going on?

Is it:

1. Everyone is being impossibly naïve about what can be agreed in 2 years and what it will mean?

2. Everyone believes (or has been told) that the UK's opening position is a gambit only and that the likely outcome is something broadly similar to what we have now?

3. The UK is such a good place to do business that companies will stay regardless of hard Brexit and WTO rules and customs checks? Would be nice but seems a tad unlikely.

4. There have been private soundings with EU governments which have reassured these companies.

5. Companies hope that by staying in the UK they will effectively force the UK government to do a deal which favours them because the alternative is likely to be so horrendous. A high risk strategy.

And if not any of the above, what might be the reason or reasons?

The big downward move in Sterling will have played a role.