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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As ICM reports another gigantic CON lead Number 10 moves to sq

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  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,257
    Sean_F said:

    Given the amount of oil it has, Nigeria could be a pretty wealthy country.
    A family member has an interest in a large order for 'techie stuff; which has been placed with Nigeria. Prudently (IMHO and experience) the shippers are not doing so until the cheque has at least been signed. However apparently the President is off sick, perhaps dead, and he needs to countersign it!
    Allegedly!
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Sean_F said:

    Given the amount of oil it has, Nigeria could be a pretty wealthy country.
    Could have been a wealthy country. I rather think it is too late now. South Africa seems to be following the Zimbabwe route as is Kenya.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,003

    A predictive one :-) Just wondering how you saw the WM contest, really - Andy Street looks quite a short price considering...
    https://twitter.com/Psephography/status/842817820652158977
    Paint Coventry South blue for the moment for starters.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited March 2017

    Give a man a Poisson process, and he'll eat at random yet underlyingly predictable times for ever.
    Teach a man to fish and he'll never go hungry

    Teach a man to fish for compliments and he becomes vain and insufferable

    (Wish there was a like button to let me see how many people that amused)
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Must admit I missed the car tax changes in the budget last year. Can not understand how they help trying to get people to use less polluting vehicles.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,047
    Charles said:

    Why would you buy in ahead of the initial depreciation?
    Because I wanted a brand new Jaguar customised exactly as I wanted it.

    A car is a consumable to me, not an investment.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,566
    malcolmg said:

    Money has been thrown at Africa for at least 50 years and it has had little impact, majority gets stolen , wasted or used for fat cat charities.
    Only way is to fund and run the actual projects yourself otherwise it si money down the drain as we have seen.
    The health gains in particular in Africa have been extraordinary over the last fifty years.
    Things like the eradication of smallpox, near eradication of guinea worm, enormous reductions in diseases like polio, maternal mortality, infant mortality etc.

    Simply couldn't have been done without foreign aid.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,298
    F1: as feared, the start times for qualifying and the race, respectively, are 6am and 5am. Bloody daft times.
  • isam said:

    Teach a man to fish and he'll never go hungry

    Teach a man to fish for compliments and he becomes vain and insufferable

    (Wish there was a like button to let me see how many people that amused)
    Teach a man to fish and he will sit in a boat drinking beer all day.

  • prh47bridgeprh47bridge Posts: 465

    "It would require Labour support or at least abstention to get to the two thirds threshold. "

    I think its written that abstentions count as no - i.e. it needs 434 positive votes for an election but humbly submit to someone who has read it more recently.

    That is correct. Empty seats (e.g. seats waiting for a by election) also effectively count as no votes. The number of MPs voting in favour must be at least two thirds of the total number of seats in the Commons.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,556
    FF43 said:

    If you bring money into a place you become a stakeholder in whatever "system" exists there. If it's a bunch of warlords or corrupt officials you have to deal with them. You need to be clear that whatever outcomes you are looking for can be met and be justified.

    Or not.

    Linda Polman as I mentioned is very good on this. Her initial example (I'm half remembering): in order to allow you to deliver aid to an IDP camp where people are starving you are asked by the local warlords to "donate" half your aid convoy to them, which they will then sell in order to buy armaments to continue the conflict.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    7 out of 72

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Yorkshire_County_Council
    Cheers Sandy surprised at that .Thought York was the only place .
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,047
    Sean_F said:

    One should give what one can afford.
    Or, one should buy what one needs to in order to achieve a clear conscience.

    I know one individual who (only half-jokingly) subscribes £2-£3 a month to an animal rescue, famine relief, cancer/heart disease, domestic violence/homelessness charity, as well as mental health and the National Trust, on the basis that they've thereby "covered all the bases".
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,556
    Sean_F said:

    Given the amount of oil it has, Nigeria could be a pretty wealthy country.
    = the resource curse.
  • F1: as feared, the start times for qualifying and the race, respectively, are 6am and 5am. Bloody daft times.

    I hope so, it means I can watch in peace while the family are asleep. Then I am free to spend the rest of the day doing what they want.
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221

    A predictive one :-) Just wondering how you saw the WM contest, really - Andy Street looks quite a short price considering...
    https://twitter.com/Psephography/status/842817820652158977
    Tories think it is winnable.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,298
    edited March 2017
    Mr. Mawbs, those times are from the BBC's radio coverage, so they should be right. I'll check ahead of time to make sure.

    Will probably just listen on the radio, as getting up would necessitate walking/feeding the dog, so to be sure of getting all that done I'd need to get up at about half four.

    Edited extra bit: ahem. I don't think it's on Channel 4 anyway.

    ....
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,836

    Teach a man to fish and he will sit in a boat drinking beer all day.

    Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Dixie said:

    Tories think it is winnable.
    In 2015, half the vote was Tory or UKIP. Surely they have a chance?
  • Or, one should buy what one needs to in order to achieve a clear conscience.

    I know one individual who (only half-jokingly) subscribes £2-£3 a month to an animal rescue, famine relief, cancer/heart disease, domestic violence/homelessness charity, as well as mental health and the National Trust, on the basis that they've thereby "covered all the bases".
    I have to say I am much more likely to give money to a natural disaster like Haiti than something which looks to be man made (whether due to war, dictatorship or overpopulation)
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,111

    That is correct. Empty seats (e.g. seats waiting for a by election) also effectively count as no votes. The number of MPs voting in favour must be at least two thirds of the total number of seats in the Commons.
    Yes. So Gerald Kaufman, John Bercow and Sinn Fein are all effectively in the No lobby.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited March 2017

    Or, one should buy what one needs to in order to achieve a clear conscience.

    I know one individual who (only half-jokingly) subscribes £2-£3 a month to an animal rescue, famine relief, cancer/heart disease, domestic violence/homelessness charity, as well as mental health and the National Trust, on the basis that they've thereby "covered all the bases".
    The absurdity of modern life and "want" culture. Two things that really brought this home to me are the book "Enough" by John Naish, and the story "Those who walk away from Omelas" by Ursula Le Guin

    A couple of months ago I was buying a new pair of running shoes.. I decided on a pair of asics that were blue with yellow stripe.. £80.. they had the same pair in blue with an orange stripe for £50, and I almost paid the extra £30 because I slightly preferred the yellow. When you think of what £30 would man to some people that is absurd! It shows what effect our culture has. When faced with choices like that I think we should bu the cheaper option and give the difference to charity (although I don't think I did that)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "The Tories 19-point lead has been beaten by only three ICM/Guardian polls: two with a 20-point lead (1983 and 2008) and one of 21-points back in June 1983."

    https://www.icmunlimited.com/polls/
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,111

    TSE's point is that The Zanzibar war lasted all of 38 minutes :lol:
    And Zanzibar was required to pay for the shells lobbed at it. That would at least be one way to avoid another election expenses scandal.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    rkrkrk said:



    The health gains in particular in Africa have been extraordinary over the last fifty years.
    Things like the eradication of smallpox, near eradication of guinea worm, enormous reductions in diseases like polio, maternal mortality, infant mortality etc.

    Simply couldn't have been done without foreign aid.

    Who donated the money to achieve similar benefits in Europe/USA in the 19th and early 20th centuries? I am really not sure that saying third world countries cannot do anything for themselves is helpful.

    To be sure we can and should help, but only when asked by the local governments. Furthermore, we should demand a price, not in terms of money, that the "ruling class" have to pay (e.g. why the feck should UK taxpayers be giving aid to a state that has nuclear arms is beyond me).
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,766
    edited March 2017
    MTimT said:

    A further option is not to give the money in direct aid but to seed public private partnerships that have a profit incentive but create sustainable growth and jobs in the target country. The key is to engage the recipient in deciding true priorities and to use trusted partners.
    I am trying to recall something I read about a project with the diamond trade in the Congo, which is about as desperate a place as you can get. From what I remember, the aim was to get the local warlords on board with taxation and infrastructure. If they could agree on allowing roads and bridges to be built and to ensure they were kept clear and then take a tax on the trafficeveryone would benefit. There wouldn't be a lot of trust involved but the parties would have some shared objectives.

    Further to your point, I know a bit about charity work in China. Local charities walk on eggshells in their relationship with government. But the locals understand how the system works - what you need to do, what you mustn't do and how to get round barriers. Outsiders would never have this knowledge.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    rkrkrk said:

    The health gains in particular in Africa have been extraordinary over the last fifty years.
    Things like the eradication of smallpox, near eradication of guinea worm, enormous reductions in diseases like polio, maternal mortality, infant mortality etc.

    Simply couldn't have been done without foreign aid.
    But there's an unsustainable population explosion taking place in Africa at the moment because the gains in heath haven't been matched by the expected reduction in fertility.
  • madasafishmadasafish Posts: 659
    Sean_F said:

    Given the amount of oil it has, Nigeria could be a pretty wealthy country.
    I have been to Nigeria as well.
    I can understand why so many Nigerians emigrate. It's a country with great potential utterly ruined by incompetence,tribalism and corruption.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,188
    edited March 2017

    F1: as feared, the start times for qualifying and the race, respectively, are 6am and 5am. Bloody daft times.

    6am for the race because of the clocks going forward I thought?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,556
    AndyJS said:

    But there's an unsustainable population explosion taking place in Africa at the moment because the gains in heath haven't been matched by the expected reduction in fertility.
    Give it time, with greater wealth comes lower population growth. If you're a bit richer you don't have to worry about providing children for your pension, of whom several may die before they can start working so best to over-compensate.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,249
    isam said:
    I doubt if the City or rich boroughs will be queuing up to be ruled by the London Labour Party.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,018

    The kicker from this poll, by Martin Boon

    "When 18-24s split 41% vs 29% for the Conservatives, Labour can only be in some sort of historic mess."

    Nah, it'll be fine. Just down to the evil media and blairites, right lads?

    Odd how the common people, who clearly must hate tories and love socialist policies, are so easily duped into giving huge leads to the tories, when they and the blairites are all so irrelevant and out of touch thesedays.
  • Sean_F said:

    I doubt if the City or rich boroughs will be queuing up to be ruled by the London Labour Party.
    Depends if it was a city state like Sparta.

    You could go round kicking emissaries from other city states/countries who annoy/threaten you by saying 'This is London'
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,298
    Mr. Isam, Lammy's off his ****ing head.

    Mr. Eagles, hmm. Possibly, although that's not what the BBC radio time is.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,249

    Depends if it was a city state like Sparta.

    You could go round kicking emissaries from other city states/countries who annoy/threaten you by saying 'This is London'
    Maybe they could extend the Corporation of London's system of enfranchisement across the whole of London.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    isam said:
    The man is as thick as two short planks and clearly has given no thought to the practicalities of his "solution".

    That such stupid people have risen to prominence in the Labour Party is perhaps a part of the reason it is in such dire straights.
  • Oh my

    Sir Bill Cash said the government should “tactfully” remind the Germans that Britain helped to pay of half of German debt after the second world war. This was debt dating back to the Treaty of Versailles. He said this one reason why the UK should not have to pay the EU anything when it left. He said:
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,047
    FF43 said:

    I am trying to recall something I read about a project with the diamond trade in the Congo, which is about as desperate a place as you can get. From what I remember, the aim was to get the local warlords on board with taxation and infrastructure. If they could agree on allowing roads and bridges to be built and to ensure they were kept clear and then take a tax on the trafficeveryone would benefit. There wouldn't be a lot of trust involved but the parties would have some shared objectives.

    Further to your point, I know a bit about charity work in China. Local charities walk on eggshells in their relationship with government. But the locals understand how the system works - what you need to do, what you mustn't do and how to get round barriers. Outsiders would never have this knowledge.
    I don't blame the Chinese. If I were living in China, I'd keep my head down and my nose clean too.
  • Mr. Isam, Lammy's off his ****ing head.

    Mr. Eagles, hmm. Possibly, although that's not what the BBC radio time is.

    I'm going by Sky's adverts.

    Show starts at 4.30am and race starts at 6am

    http://www.skysports.com/f1/schedule-results
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,188
    edited March 2017
    Sean_F said:

    Maybe they could extend the Corporation of London's system of enfranchisement across the whole of London.
    Sadiq Khan = Leonidas

    But who is Xerxes I?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,047

    Depends if it was a city state like Sparta.

    You could go round kicking emissaries from other city states/countries who annoy/threaten you by saying 'This is London'
    Lol.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    On topic:

    I don't think this has anything to do with the law, I think it is all about optics.

    No sitting PM, in a strong position, wants to be see to be in hindsight a turkey voting for Christmas.
  • I'm on team Osborne, but I'm deeply uncomfortable about this.

    1) A newspaper edited by someone who is from the ruling party/recently the Finance minister is something you'd expect to see in Africa or communist states

    2) Imagine if Michael Crick was working for the Standard, would he really bring the expenses story to Osborne?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,558
    Yorkcity said:

    Cheers Sandy surprised at that .Thought York was the only place .
    The one that surprises me is the Kipper representing a ward in Harrogate!
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,566

    Who donated the money to achieve similar benefits in Europe/USA in the 19th and early 20th centuries? I am really not sure that saying third world countries cannot do anything for themselves is helpful.

    To be sure we can and should help, but only when asked by the local governments. Furthermore, we should demand a price, not in terms of money, that the "ruling class" have to pay (e.g. why the feck should UK taxpayers be giving aid to a state that has nuclear arms is beyond me).
    Who said third world countries can't do anything for themselves?

    It's very very obvious though that more can be achieved when they are supported with resources and expertise. The pace of progress in poor countries has actually been quite a bit faster than in Europe.

    Child mortality in Bangladesh fell from 341/1000 in 1950s to less than 50 today.
    That same fall took nearly two hundred years in Sweden.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,298
    Mr. Eagles, I doubt Leonidas would have been against bikini-wearing blonde women.

    Also, even by your standards that's a bloody horrendous analogy. Leonidas did not have any patience with despotic regimes from the east trying to impose their rules on the West. Khan was happy to criticise Trump's migration policy, then sat down with representatives from nations with a far harsher stance towards Israel.

    Cheers for the race info, I'll pay suitable attention nearer the time.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,047

    Oh my

    Sir Bill Cash said the government should “tactfully” remind the Germans that Britain helped to pay of half of German debt after the second world war. This was debt dating back to the Treaty of Versailles. He said this one reason why the UK should not have to pay the EU anything when it left. He said:

    We should tactfully pay some of the debt to the Germans with free DVDs of The Colditz Story, The Dambusters, the Great Escape, and the Battle of Britain.
  • Mr. Eagles, I doubt Leonidas would have been against bikini-wearing blonde women.

    Also, even by your standards that's a bloody horrendous analogy. Leonidas did not have any patience with despotic regimes from the east trying to impose their rules on the West. Khan was happy to criticise Trump's migration policy, then sat down with representatives from nations with a far harsher stance towards Israel.

    Cheers for the race info, I'll pay suitable attention nearer the time.

    I merely picked Sparta as it was the first city state that came into my mind.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,298
    Mr. Royale, at the end of a visit by German exchange students to my high school, the band finished a farewell concert by playing music from The Great Escape.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Corbyn is doing a marvellous job.He has moved the overton window.This by getting the conservative government to implement part of the 1983 Labour manifesto , leave the EU , threaten the house of lord's ,nationalise banks national minimum wage, abolish fox hunting.Not bad really.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,554

    I have been to Nigeria as well.
    I can understand why so many Nigerians emigrate. It's a country with great potential utterly ruined by incompetence,tribalism and corruption.
    And is all that incompetence, tribalism and corruption some sort of Act of God or might it have something to do with how Nigerians themselves behave?

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,047

    I'm on team Osborne, but I'm deeply uncomfortable about this.

    1) A newspaper edited by someone who is from the ruling party/recently the Finance minister is something you'd expect to see in Africa or communist states

    2) Imagine if Michael Crick was working for the Standard, would he really bring the expenses story to Osborne?

    You are close to him and his camp. Why not have a word?
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    rkrkrk said:

    Who said third world countries can't do anything for themselves?

    You did.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    rkrkrk said:

    Who said third world countries can't do anything for themselves?

    It's very very obvious though that more can be achieved when they are supported with resources and expertise. The pace of progress in poor countries has actually been quite a bit faster than in Europe.

    Child mortality in Bangladesh fell from 341/1000 in 1950s to less than 50 today.
    That same fall took nearly two hundred years in Sweden.
    The fall in Sweden happened in no small part because it took time to develop the technology that facilitated that fall. That technology is already developed now.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,298
    Mr. T, it's a subsample, though.

    Still can't quite believe what an absolute ****ing idiot Lammy is.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,566

    You did.
    Nope.

    Saying foreign aid was a necessary condition for enormous improvements in health

    Does not mean

    Nothing could have been achieved without foreign aid.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,990
    isam said:
    We're building a wall. And all those bankers from the leafy suburbs? Hundred pound a day admittance fee. And no, you can't take food in.

    Oh, and we're damning the Thames. For shits and giggles. And so you have to fly everything into City Airport.
  • We're building a wall. And all those bankers from the leafy suburbs? Hundred pound a day admittance fee. And no, you can't take food in.

    Oh, and we're damning the Thames. For shits and giggles. And so you have to fly everything into City Airport.
    They'll need to get past the SAM sites at Barking first.

  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Yorkcity said:

    Corbyn is doing a marvellous job.He has moved the overton window.This by getting the conservative government to implement part of the 1983 Labour manifesto , leave the EU , threaten the house of lord's ,nationalise banks national minimum wage, abolish fox hunting.Not bad really.

    Mr. City, Nick Palmer posted on here a few years ago that much of Kinnock's manifesto of the 1980s had now been achieved, mostly through or at least with the consent of Conservative MPs.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    The one that surprises me is the Kipper representing a ward in Harrogate!
    Yes very always thought Harrogate was true blue .Was a real shock when it went Lib Dem through the new labour years.
  • You are close to him and his camp. Why not have a word?
    My influence on Team Osborne is massively overestimated, as evidenced by the lack of subtle pop music references in the budgets of 2010 to 2016.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    We're building a wall. And all those bankers from the leafy suburbs? Hundred pound a day admittance fee. And no, you can't take food in.

    Oh, and we're damning the Thames. For shits and giggles. And so you have to fly everything into City Airport.
    The exclusion zone is our Oyster!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,990

    They'll need to get past the SAM sites at Barking first.

    And the trebuchets, lobbing in diseased animals.
  • SeanT said:

    Labour in Scotland on...... 12.

    12.

    That's terminal, I think. Has any major party ever come back from national polling that low?

    Unless the SNP split over a lost referendum, or SLAB suddenly find an incredible, inspirational leader, Labour are finished north of the Border.
    Sub sample old bean.

    There's enough proper polling from Scotland showing Labour are buggered.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,111
    Yorkcity said:

    Yes very always thought Harrogate was true blue .Was a real shock when it went Lib Dem through the new labour years.
    Blame Norman Lamont for that. It is true Blue but it's also Yorkshire and doesn't take kindly to parachuted-in offcumdens.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,298
    Mr. Mark, ahem. Live ammunition (excepting political figures in the space cannon) would be immoral.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited March 2017
    SeanT said:

    I have to renew my passport next year. I am genuinely intrigued to know what it will look like. They surely can't keep printing the old EU passports, which will be obsolete a year later.
    I'd have thought that if we leave the EU on say 29 March 2019 then it is entirely possible that a passport printed on 28 March 2019 would still have the EU flag on it. Until we're out, we remain in.
  • And the trebuchets, lobbing in diseased animals.
    I suppose they could re-commission HMS Belfast and shell Scratchwood in retaliation.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    SeanT said:

    I have to renew my passport next year. I am genuinely intrigued to know what it will look like. They surely can't keep printing the old EU passports, which will be obsolete a year later.
    Yes you would think they would have something in place for renewal of a British passport.Will they go back to the old style blue or another colour to signify change ?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    SeanT said:

    Labour in Scotland on...... 12.

    12.

    That's terminal, I think. Has any major party ever come back from national polling that low?

    Unless the SNP split over a lost referendum, or SLAB suddenly find an incredible, inspirational leader, Labour are finished north of the Border.
    Scottish Conservatives were once on 12 weren't they? Labour are now in the same position the Scottish Tories used to be.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,249
    Yorkcity said:

    Corbyn is doing a marvellous job.He has moved the overton window.This by getting the conservative government to implement part of the 1983 Labour manifesto , leave the EU , threaten the house of lord's ,nationalise banks national minimum wage, abolish fox hunting.Not bad really.

    Banks are still mostly privately owned, and fox hunting is still going strong.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,047
    SeanT said:

    I have to renew my passport next year. I am genuinely intrigued to know what it will look like. They surely can't keep printing the old EU passports, which will be obsolete a year later.
    I expect they probably will until we are out.

    I would expect an announcement on new passports prior to GE2020, however.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,111

    Mr. T, it's a subsample, though.

    Still can't quite believe what an absolute ****ing idiot Lammy is.

    It's a subsample which is entirely in line with plenty of other Scottish subsamples. In fact, it's slightly higher than at least one. I've seen an 11 reported for Scot Lab before.
  • SeanT said:

    Of course. But as you say, proper polling is almost as grim.
    Makes you wonder, if Corbyn/Labour is polling that badly in Scotland, where you think Corbynism would be the most popular, just how badly Corbyn is polling in England, especially in the marginals.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Sean_F said:

    Banks are still mostly privately owned, and fox hunting is still going strong.
    Yes I know but to think any of this was unimaginable by many in 1983.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited March 2017

    Makes you wonder, if Corbyn/Labour is polling that badly in Scotland, where you think Corbynism would be the most popular, just how badly Corbyn is polling in England, especially in the marginals.
    Inner London surely is where Corbynism is expected to be most popular?
  • SeanT said:

    Good point. But SCON benefited, uniquely, from an excellent new leader, and huge realignment after indyref.

    Labour need a similar unique - and therefore unlikely - revolution in Scottish politics.
    Perhaps a victory for the Union in the second indyref might change the political landscape in Scotland once more.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046

    It's a subsample which is entirely in line with plenty of other Scottish subsamples. In fact, it's slightly higher than at least one. I've seen an 11 reported for Scot Lab before.
    Once SLAB no doubt start kicking out any members who publicly express support for independence (or even another ref !!) - then they will touch their true low point. Even the SCON are going to need to be careful with how they handle their small band of independence supporters.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,836
    SeanT said:

    I have to renew my passport next year. I am genuinely intrigued to know what it will look like. They surely can't keep printing the old EU passports, which will be obsolete a year later.
    The design of passports (in terms of size, features, layout, RFID) is set internationally, so that will likely not change at all. The European Union is only mentioned in two places: on the front cover in a smaller font than UNITED KINGDOM, and on page three (again in relatively small font). I would expect that your passport will lose those two references to the EU next year.

    Now, will it go black? Of course, there is nothing to stop the UK having a black passport now. Croatia, for example, is in the EU and has very dark blue passport. My guess is that by 2020 we'll probably return to black, but otherwise the design (other than losing the words "European Union") will be absolutely the same as it is now.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,836

    I'd have thought that if we leave the EU on say 29 March 2019 then it is entirely possible that a passport printed on 28 March 2019 would still have the EU flag on it. Until we're out, we remain in.
    Our passports don't have the EU flag on them now.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,249
    edited March 2017
    rcs1000 said:

    The design of passports (in terms of size, features, layout, RFID) is set internationally, so that will likely not change at all. The European Union is only mentioned in two places: on the front cover in a smaller font than UNITED KINGDOM, and on page three (again in relatively small font). I would expect that your passport will lose those two references to the EU next year.

    Now, will it go black? Of course, there is nothing to stop the UK having a black passport now. Croatia, for example, is in the EU and has very dark blue passport. My guess is that by 2020 we'll probably return to black, but otherwise the design (other than losing the words "European Union") will be absolutely the same as it is now.
    Perhaps the Government will call it FREE STATE OF THE UNITED KINGDOM, with a motif of two dead Frenchmen lying on top of a pile of dead Frenchmen.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Mr. City, Nick Palmer posted on here a few years ago that much of Kinnock's manifesto of the 1980s had now been achieved, mostly through or at least with the consent of Conservative MPs.
    Yes I would not argue with that.The conservative leadership, maybe not so much supporters ,who just have to follow , are very pragmatic and that is why so successful .
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,836
    Sean_F said:

    Perhaps the Government will call it FREE STATE OF THE UNITED KINGDOM.
    I think they'll probably just lose the two words "EUROPEAN" and "UNION", but you may be right.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,558
    Sean_F said:

    Perhaps the Government will call it FREE STATE OF THE UNITED KINGDOM, with a motif of two dead Frenchmen lying on top of a pile of dead Frenchmen.
    "Free State" and "Kingdom" are a bit contradictory.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,998
    This Momentum spokesperson is extraordinary.
    https://twitter.com/daily_politics/status/843826111242948609
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,142
    Michel Barnier prepares the EU to call the government's bluff on hard Brexit.

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/843833525652676608
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,836
    Passport fact of the day. Only one country has a genuinely black passport. Said country is in Europe.

    Can anyone name it?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,925
    rcs1000 said:

    The design of passports (in terms of size, features, layout, RFID) is set internationally, so that will likely not change at all. The European Union is only mentioned in two places: on the front cover in a smaller font than UNITED KINGDOM, and on page three (again in relatively small font). I would expect that your passport will lose those two references to the EU next year.

    Now, will it go black? Of course, there is nothing to stop the UK having a black passport now. Croatia, for example, is in the EU and has very dark blue passport. My guess is that by 2020 we'll probably return to black, but otherwise the design (other than losing the words "European Union") will be absolutely the same as it is now.
    That's put a bit of a downer on it really. On PB this very morning, someone was citing the return of the Great British blue passports as one of the great prizes of Brexit.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,990

    Mr. Mark, ahem. Live ammunition (excepting political figures in the space cannon) would be immoral.

    Carcasses will do....
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited March 2017

    This Momentum spokesperson is extraordinary.
    https://twitter.com/daily_politics/status/843826111242948609

    Do you mean because you cant tell if she is a bloke? Looks a bit like the bass player out of the Jimi Hendrix Experience
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,998
    isam said:

    Inner London surely is where Corbynism is expected to be most popular?

    London is about the least Corbyn friendly part of the country in terms of the membership. The North West is where he is most popular.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,298
    Mr. 1000, Liechtenstein?

    Mr. Eagles, that could well happen in Scotland. If the SNP tide receded, it should help Labour.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,142
    Sean_F said:

    Perhaps the Government will call it FREE STATE OF THE UNITED KINGDOM, with a motif of two dead Frenchmen lying on top of a pile of dead Frenchmen.

    And change the Conservative Party's name to the European National Congress?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,111
    Yorkcity said:

    Yes I know but to think any of this was unimaginable by many in 1983.
    I doubt it. The number of industries and services owned and operated by the government in 1983 was huge. For a government - a future Labour one, presumably - to have taken over a bank wouldn't have been outside people's frame of reference.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,836
    SeanT said:

    It will also - at some point - lose all the foreign translations of the words - German to Maltese to Polish, and go back to just English, with perhaps Welsh, and Scots Gaelic? Maybe French (I hope not)
    The old British passport had French translations in, presumably as it was the lingua franca in the old days.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,836

    Mr. 1000, Liechtenstein?

    Mr. Eagles, that could well happen in Scotland. If the SNP tide receded, it should help Labour.

    Good guess, but no.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Blame Norman Lamont for that. It is true Blue but it's also Yorkshire and doesn't take kindly to parachuted-in offcumdens.
    Good point always surprised with the difference between York and Harrogate both quite wealthy places. York used to be marginal upto ,1987 but then very Labour ,maybe the Universities in York have an influence.
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