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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP: circling the whirlpool
UKIP was very good for Brexit: if the party had never been created, Britain would almost certainly still be a member of the European Union.* Brexit, by contrast, has been disastrous for UKIP. Stripped of their two greatest assets – their mission and by far their most effective leader – UKIP has struggled since last July to find a purpose or a direction. Compounded by internal divisions, the estrangement of their major funder, and a gaffe-prone leadership, you might have expected that the inevitable result would be a major hit to their polling. In fact, it’s not quite as simple as that.
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Always a pleasure to see the good Lord grace our thread headers.... titters.
Thanks David, an interesting read. I am cautiously optimistic about the locals for Team Blue. Should be an exciting night!0 -
Oh, and First
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Second. Not like UKIP.0
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Just watching the Trump/Merkel conference - did May really leave her mark? Trump apparently stated his strong support for NATO!
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Good thread. There is less support for a single-issue party once its issue has been largely neutralised, and it is punished remorselessly by FPTP. Unless there is some drastic change in circumstances, such as the government somehow reneging on Brexit, I imagine it'll fade into irrelevance.
Contrast with the Greens incidentally. I don't think they'll ever fade away completely, because there is always more that one can do on the environment. Or with Labour: the income distribution will always be unequal, though absolute poverty has been largely consigned to the past. The Scots Nats are somewhere in between: even once Scotland has its independence, if it ever does, Scottish interests will still need protecting.0 -
Excellent article - on the fundamental question "without UKIP no BREXIT" I think that's fair - but I doubt there will be much public appetite for the specific details as long as May delivers more or less what she's promised. Of course there will be a number of people unhappy on both extremes - but whether this is enough to represent a serious force, I doubt.
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Didn't you get the memo? It was a complete disaster for May and an unmitigated triumph for Merkel.....actually not even the Guardian is trying that.....RobD said:Just watching the Trump/Merkel conference - did May really leave her mark? Trump apparently stated his strong support for NATO!
Special relationship vs strained relationship
“This was your choice of a question? There goes that relationship,” Trump joked after May called upon the BBC’s political editor, Laura Kuenssberg, who rose to her feet to ask a particularly tough question. There was raucous laughter in the room.
“Would you like to go first? Nice friendly reporter,” Trump said after Merkel called upon a reporter from the German Press Agency, who asked a similarly tough question. This time almost no one was laughing.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/mar/17/may-trumps-merkel-in-relationship-with-us-president0 -
The question is, when are they "sticking up for Scotland " and when are they "sticking up for the SNP"?Fishing said:The Scots Nats are somewhere in between: even once Scotland has its independence, if it ever does, Scottish interests will still need protecting.
Thank Goodness - the Four Day War is Over
Well, I’m glad that’s over and we can all get on with our lives, undisturbed by the prospect of a two-year campaign leading to indyRef2. Launched on Monday, sunk on Thursday – a mercifully short voyage.
Nicola Sturgeon’s unlikely success in allowing a Tory Prime Minister to speak for the great Scottish majority – who did not want to kick off another referendum, 30 months after the last one – is unlikely to be looked back on as her finest hour.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/brian-wilson-thank-goodness-the-four-day-war-is-over-1-4394217/amp
I fear the writer is a little optimistic, but Mrs McTrump appears to be back pedalling.....0 -
Hah, the article linked in that section is entitled - "Will Trump’s presidency finally kill the myth of the special relationship?"... no, it probably wont...CarlottaVance said:
Didn't you get the memo? It was a complete disaster for May and an unmitigated triumph for Merkel.....actually not even the Guardian is trying that.....RobD said:Just watching the Trump/Merkel conference - did May really leave her mark? Trump apparently stated his strong support for NATO!
Special relationship vs strained relationship
“This was your choice of a question? There goes that relationship,” Trump joked after May called upon the BBC’s political editor, Laura Kuenssberg, who rose to her feet to ask a particularly tough question. There was raucous laughter in the room.
“Would you like to go first? Nice friendly reporter,” Trump said after Merkel called upon a reporter from the German Press Agency, who asked a similarly tough question. This time almost no one was laughing.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/mar/17/may-trumps-merkel-in-relationship-with-us-president 0 -
I expect the usual suspects will be lining up to condemn that sycophantic Tory rag, the Guardian:RobD said:
Hah, the article linked in that section is entitled - "Will Trump’s presidency finally kill the myth of the special relationship?"... no, it probably wont...CarlottaVance said:
Didn't you get the memo? It was a complete disaster for May and an unmitigated triumph for Merkel.....actually not even the Guardian is trying that.....RobD said:Just watching the Trump/Merkel conference - did May really leave her mark? Trump apparently stated his strong support for NATO!
Special relationship vs strained relationship
“This was your choice of a question? There goes that relationship,” Trump joked after May called upon the BBC’s political editor, Laura Kuenssberg, who rose to her feet to ask a particularly tough question. There was raucous laughter in the room.
“Would you like to go first? Nice friendly reporter,” Trump said after Merkel called upon a reporter from the German Press Agency, who asked a similarly tough question. This time almost no one was laughing.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/mar/17/may-trumps-merkel-in-relationship-with-us-president
May’s win vs Merkel’s score draw
May was able to come away from the US trumpeting a guarantee from Trump that he supported Nato, despite his having earlier called it an obsolete institution. While Merkel was able to extract a similar show of support for Nato from the US president, it came with strings attached. Trump said he had “reiterated strong support for Nato, as well as the need for our allies to pay their fair share”. He accused other nations of owing “vast sums”, which was unfair on the US. They “must pay what they owe”, he warned.0 -
More Tory propaganda:
Alloa suggests Sturgeon may not be reading her nation’s mood with her customary skill. Residents this week described a sense that Sturgeon was breaking the promise that the 2014 was a “once-in-a-generation” opportunity, and expressed a surprising indifference about the whole question of Brexit, as well as a growing ennui with politics in general.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/17/no-one-is-talking-about-it-has-sturgeon-misjudged-mood-for-independence0 -
Tory media owned by off shore, tax avoiding foreign billionaires.CarlottaVance said:
I expect the usual suspects will be lining up to condemn that sycophantic Tory rag, the Guardian:RobD said:
Hah, the article linked in that section is entitled - "Will Trump’s presidency finally kill the myth of the special relationship?"... no, it probably wont...CarlottaVance said:
Didn't you get the memo? It was a complete disaster for May and an unmitigated triumph for Merkel.....actually not even the Guardian is trying that.....RobD said:Just watching the Trump/Merkel conference - did May really leave her mark? Trump apparently stated his strong support for NATO!
Special relationship vs strained relationship
“This was your choice of a question? There goes that relationship,” Trump joked after May called upon the BBC’s political editor, Laura Kuenssberg, who rose to her feet to ask a particularly tough question. There was raucous laughter in the room.
“Would you like to go first? Nice friendly reporter,” Trump said after Merkel called upon a reporter from the German Press Agency, who asked a similarly tough question. This time almost no one was laughing.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/mar/17/may-trumps-merkel-in-relationship-with-us-president
May’s win vs Merkel’s score draw
May was able to come away from the US trumpeting a guarantee from Trump that he supported Nato, despite his having earlier called it an obsolete institution. While Merkel was able to extract a similar show of support for Nato from the US president, it came with strings attached. Trump said he had “reiterated strong support for Nato, as well as the need for our allies to pay their fair share”. He accused other nations of owing “vast sums”, which was unfair on the US. They “must pay what they owe”, he warned.0 -
A question for the legal bods on PB. Why was this second clause in the EU (Notification of Withdrawal) Bill included?
(2)This section has effect despite any provision made by or under the European Communities Act 1972 or any other enactment.
Could provisions in other Acts have made the first clause void?
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Not a legal bod, but presumably to prevent any other unexpected legal challenges on spurious grounds?RobD said:A question for the legal bods on PB. Why was this second clause in the EU (Notification of Withdrawal) Bill included?
(2)This section has effect despite any provision made by or under the European Communities Act 1972 or any other enactment.
Could provisions in other Acts have made the first clause void?
It makes quite clear that the will of Parliament is that the government issues an Article 50 notification0 -
I guess so. Also, it can also only be applying to past enactments, otherwise it would be binding future parliaments.Charles said:
Not a legal bod, but presumably to prevent any other unexpected legal challenges on spurious grounds?RobD said:A question for the legal bods on PB. Why was this second clause in the EU (Notification of Withdrawal) Bill included?
(2)This section has effect despite any provision made by or under the European Communities Act 1972 or any other enactment.
Could provisions in other Acts have made the first clause void?
It makes quite clear that the will of Parliament is that the government issues an Article 50 notification0 -
On April 6th there are four DC by-elections, two of them in UKIP seats. One of the seats is in Tendring, in Carswell’s constituency. Two seat ward, the other being held by a Conservative. Five candidates, Con, UKIP, Lab, LD & Green Last two didn’t fight the ward last time, and second Tory beat 2nd UKIP.0
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Doesn't that strengthen May's hand?williamglenn said:0 -
Yes but don't expect him to get that.Charles said:
Doesn't that strengthen May's hand?williamglenn said:0 -
It's clear me that to save the party, His Excellence The Grand Universal Leader Nuttall of UKIP should temporarily restrain himself from performing miracles for the masses - the loaves and fishes stunt is bit passe at food banks now - and lend an ear to the concerns of Kipper members and voters who are clearly a tad underwhelmed that the Great Leader has so far failed to solve worldwide poverty, disease and the complete inability of Burnley FC to win the Champions League.
And it'll get worse tomorrow .... on the seventh day God rested ....0 -
There's an obvious solution.williamglenn said:0 -
Interesting academic analysis of referendum Twitter:
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/03/16/more-positive-assertive-and-forward-looking-how-leave-won-twitter/
Some extracts:
in most of the period the tweets by the Leave side dominated the day-to-day volume of tweets. A large-scale surge of tweets by Remain users came too late, right after the referendum on 24 June
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we also found that the language by Leave users was, relative to the text of pro-Remain users [...] oriented toward the future more, and less toward the past;0 -
Ireland is one of the few cards in Britain's hands. It will be arguing for soft borders from within the EU. I don't think it will have an effective veto however as the default option - minimal deal - is the one it's trying to avoid.Charles said:
Doesn't that strengthen May's hand?williamglenn said:0 -
That's about the shortest way of saying that, no matter what else Parliament may have said in the past, the Executive has the right to give notice under Article 50. Probably, as @Charles says, to stop Gina Miller arguing that something written in another Act somewhere (there have been several EU acts over the years) somehow over-rides the A50 Bill.RobD said:
I guess so. Also, it can also only be applying to past enactments, otherwise it would be binding future parliaments.Charles said:
Not a legal bod, but presumably to prevent any other unexpected legal challenges on spurious grounds?RobD said:A question for the legal bods on PB. Why was this second clause in the EU (Notification of Withdrawal) Bill included?
(2)This section has effect despite any provision made by or under the European Communities Act 1972 or any other enactment.
Could provisions in other Acts have made the first clause void?
It makes quite clear that the will of Parliament is that the government issues an Article 50 notification
It was also a fantastic job by the government whips in both houses to get such a short Bill through unamended. Not even Ken Clarke voted against the final division!0 -
Ireland's vote is only technically needed to extend negotiations. Approval of the deal is subject to QMV.Charles said:
Doesn't that strengthen May's hand?williamglenn said:
The UK government's current position is that this question can be magicked away with technology. Will that stand up to reality?0 -
The implication is that if there is "no deal" and a hard border then Eire will have no option but to leave the EU as well. I doubt it would ever be spelt out that obviously, but if they can't have a hard border and there is no alternative on offer...FF43 said:
Ireland is one of the few cards in Britain's hands. It will be arguing for soft borders from within the EU. I don't think it will have an effective veto however as the default option - minimal deal - is the one it's trying to avoid.Charles said:
Doesn't that strengthen May's hand?williamglenn said:0 -
Good morning, everyone.
Gordon Brown really is a ****ing idiot. Just a day after I say something nice about him, he's banging on about flinging more powers at Holyrood/the SNP.
Yeah, because constantly giving ground to devolution in one part of the UK has worked really well so far, hasn't it?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39309133
Edited extra bit: I should add, I'm not saying the constitutional settlement should remain as is forever (indeed, I want an English Parliament) but reacting to the current situation by throwing a raft of powers at Holyrood will only embolden the SNP and exacerbate the as yet unanswered (unasked, you might even say) West Lothian Question.
it's short term tactical bullshit neglecting utterly the strategic picture. Very New Labour.0 -
Yes it is subject to QMV - but if Ireland won't sign a deal then it would have to leave the EU.williamglenn said:
Ireland's vote is only technically needed to extend negotiations. Approval of the deal is subject to QMV.Charles said:
Doesn't that strengthen May's hand?williamglenn said:
The UK government's current position is that this question can be magicked away with technology. Will that stand up to reality?
It increases the cost of failure for the EU - another factor encouraging them to act rationally in negotiations0 -
Didn't we all work that one out somewhere around 2002?Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Gordon Brown really is a ****ing idiot.
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Playing brinkmanship over issues like this would be the surest way to ensure the UK's territorial integrity is called into question.Charles said:
Yes it is subject to QMV - but if Ireland won't sign a deal then it would have to leave the EU.williamglenn said:
Ireland's vote is only technically needed to extend negotiations. Approval of the deal is subject to QMV.Charles said:
Doesn't that strengthen May's hand?williamglenn said:
The UK government's current position is that this question can be magicked away with technology. Will that stand up to reality?
It increases the cost of failure for the EU - another factor encouraging them to act rationally in negotiations0 -
That's why we won't play the card. Everyone knows it exists, that's all that matterswilliamglenn said:
Playing brinkmanship over issues like this would be the surest way to ensure the UK's territorial integrity is called into question.Charles said:
Yes it is subject to QMV - but if Ireland won't sign a deal then it would have to leave the EU.williamglenn said:
Ireland's vote is only technically needed to extend negotiations. Approval of the deal is subject to QMV.Charles said:
Doesn't that strengthen May's hand?williamglenn said:
The UK government's current position is that this question can be magicked away with technology. Will that stand up to reality?
It increases the cost of failure for the EU - another factor encouraging them to act rationally in negotiations
You've really never done much negotiating, have you?0 -
I wonder if Brown fancies himself as Scotland's FM at some point.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Gordon Brown really is a ****ing idiot. Just a day after I say something nice about him, he's banging on about flinging more powers at Holyrood/the SNP.
Yeah, because constantly giving ground to devolution in one part of the UK has worked really well so far, hasn't it?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39309133
Edited extra bit: I should add, I'm not saying the constitutional settlement should remain as is forever (indeed, I want an English Parliament) but reacting to the current situation by throwing a raft of powers at Holyrood will only embolden the SNP and exacerbate the as yet unanswered (unasked, you might even say) West Lothian Question.
it's short term tactical bullshit neglecting utterly the strategic picture. Very New Labour.0 -
Broon to the rescue!
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/843006167836254209
Bad idea. If Scotland leaves the United Kingdom, they'd claim the 'Scotland' bit, however nonsensical that might be. If you want to change the name, call it 'Bank of United Kingdom'.....not that I'd bother.....0 -
It's a matter of Scotland "taking back control" from Westminster which is fixated on union and prevents Scotland from enacting its own laws. Strategically there is a clear analogy with the case for Brexit.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Gordon Brown really is a ****ing idiot. Just a day after I say something nice about him, he's banging on about flinging more powers at Holyrood/the SNP.
Yeah, because constantly giving ground to devolution in one part of the UK has worked really well so far, hasn't it?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39309133
Edited extra bit: I should add, I'm not saying the constitutional settlement should remain as is forever (indeed, I want an English Parliament) but reacting to the current situation by throwing a raft of powers at Holyrood will only embolden the SNP and exacerbate the as yet unanswered (unasked, you might even say) West Lothian Question.
it's short term tactical bullshit neglecting utterly the strategic picture. Very New Labour.0 -
williamglenn said:
Playing brinkmanship over issues like this would be the surest way to ensure the UK's territorial integrity is called into question.Charles said:
Yes it is subject to QMV - but if Ireland won't sign a deal then it would have to leave the EU.williamglenn said:
Ireland's vote is only technically needed to extend negotiations. Approval of the deal is subject to QMV.Charles said:
Doesn't that strengthen May's hand?williamglenn said:
The UK government's current position is that this question can be magicked away with technology. Will that stand up to reality?
It increases the cost of failure for the EU - another factor encouraging them to act rationally in negotiations
Based on your sentiments, having coffee on a day with a Y in it would call the "UK's territorial integrity is called into question".
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Miss DiCanio, entirely possible.
Mr. Sandpit, not everyone... now May has to handle this as well as the SNP wanting another referendum and negotiating the EU exit.
Brown's a ****ing idiot. I know I wrote that already, but it's such an important point I felt it best I write it again just in case anyone missed it the first time.0 -
There aren't issues like this, other than this one.williamglenn said:
Playing brinkmanship over issues like this would be the surest way to ensure the UK's territorial integrity is called into question.Charles said:
Yes it is subject to QMV - but if Ireland won't sign a deal then it would have to leave the EU.williamglenn said:
Ireland's vote is only technically needed to extend negotiations. Approval of the deal is subject to QMV.Charles said:
Doesn't that strengthen May's hand?williamglenn said:
The UK government's current position is that this question can be magicked away with technology. Will that stand up to reality?
It increases the cost of failure for the EU - another factor encouraging them to act rationally in negotiations
I don't understand why Ireland would have to leave if it vetoed a deal. Sorry to be dim but could someone explain?0 -
Along with us somehow bestriding the world with Donald Trump, this is Atlanticist fantasy. Anyone with even the remotest understanding of Irish history would know that there is no way on God's earth the Irish will leave the EU and throw their lot in with the British. Quite frankly, as the Brexit vote shows, we can never be relied on to do the right thing by Ireland.Charles said:
The implication is that if there is "no deal" and a hard border then Eire will have no option but to leave the EU as well. I doubt it would ever be spelt out that obviously, but if they can't have a hard border and there is no alternative on offer...FF43 said:
Ireland is one of the few cards in Britain's hands. It will be arguing for soft borders from within the EU. I don't think it will have an effective veto however as the default option - minimal deal - is the one it's trying to avoid.Charles said:
Doesn't that strengthen May's hand?williamglenn said:
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Oh please. In just the same way, you could say the EU won't play the card of demanding Scottish self-determination, but it exists.Charles said:
That's why we won't play the card. Everyone knows it exists, that's all that matterswilliamglenn said:
Playing brinkmanship over issues like this would be the surest way to ensure the UK's territorial integrity is called into question.Charles said:
Yes it is subject to QMV - but if Ireland won't sign a deal then it would have to leave the EU.williamglenn said:
Ireland's vote is only technically needed to extend negotiations. Approval of the deal is subject to QMV.Charles said:
Doesn't that strengthen May's hand?williamglenn said:
The UK government's current position is that this question can be magicked away with technology. Will that stand up to reality?
It increases the cost of failure for the EU - another factor encouraging them to act rationally in negotiations
You've really never done much negotiating, have you?
Conducting the negotiation with an imperialist hauteur that assumes the other countries of the British Isles have no choice but to follow the English simply guarantees the death of the UK.0 -
He can't help himself and 'rise above it' to 'play the statesman' can he?Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Gordon Brown really is a ****ing idiot. Just a day after I say something nice about him, he's banging on about flinging more powers at Holyrood/the SNP.
If he really wanted to help he'd discuss how together the parties can come up with a solution - rather than playing sainted Labour vs evil Tories & extremist SNP.
I don't see why - consistent with the effective functioning of the UK single market - powers shouldn't be devolved as far as possible - including beyond Holyrood/Westminster......lets see how keen the SNP are on that!0 -
I think that's right. Leaving the EU is UKIP's USP. It's been the most successful single issue party since the Irish Parliamentary Party, but that single issue has now been achieved.Fishing said:Good thread. There is less support for a single-issue party once its issue has been largely neutralised, and it is punished remorselessly by FPTP. Unless there is some drastic change in circumstances, such as the government somehow reneging on Brexit, I imagine it'll fade into irrelevance.
Contrast with the Greens incidentally. I don't think they'll ever fade away completely, because there is always more that one can do on the environment. Or with Labour: the income distribution will always be unequal, though absolute poverty has been largely consigned to the past. The Scots Nats are somewhere in between: even once Scotland has its independence, if it ever does, Scottish interests will still need protecting.0 -
When it comes down to it English Tories only want a UK that exists on English Tory terms.williamglenn said:
Playing brinkmanship over issues like this would be the surest way to ensure the UK's territorial integrity is called into question.Charles said:
Yes it is subject to QMV - but if Ireland won't sign a deal then it would have to leave the EU.williamglenn said:
Ireland's vote is only technically needed to extend negotiations. Approval of the deal is subject to QMV.Charles said:
Doesn't that strengthen May's hand?williamglenn said:
The UK government's current position is that this question can be magicked away with technology. Will that stand up to reality?
It increases the cost of failure for the EU - another factor encouraging them to act rationally in negotiations
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Ireland can't veto a deal - it's under QMV. But it's said that it *won't* sign a deal with a hard border.Ishmael_Z said:
There aren't issues like this, other than this one.williamglenn said:
Playing brinkmanship over issues like this would be the surest way to ensure the UK's territorial integrity is called into question.Charles said:
Yes it is subject to QMV - but if Ireland won't sign a deal then it would have to leave the EU.williamglenn said:
Ireland's vote is only technically needed to extend negotiations. Approval of the deal is subject to QMV.Charles said:
Doesn't that strengthen May's hand?williamglenn said:
The UK government's current position is that this question can be magicked away with technology. Will that stand up to reality?
It increases the cost of failure for the EU - another factor encouraging them to act rationally in negotiations
I don't understand why Ireland would have to leave if it vetoed a deal. Sorry to be dim but could someone explain?
If it sticks to its position then it would need to leave the EU rather than stay in with a hard border.
More likely the EU would come up with some transfer payments or some other way to manage what will be a substantial issue for Eire.
But either way it materially increases the cost/downside of a "no deal" option for the EU0 -
You may have forgotten, I have a very long institutional memory of Anglo-Irish affairsSouthamObserver said:
Along with us somehow bestriding the world with Donald Trump, this is Atlanticist fantasy. Anyone with even the remotest understanding of Irish history would know that there is no way on God's earth the Irish will leave the EU and throw their lot in with the British. Quite frankly, as the Brexit vote shows, we can never be relied on to do the right thing by Ireland.Charles said:
The implication is that if there is "no deal" and a hard border then Eire will have no option but to leave the EU as well. I doubt it would ever be spelt out that obviously, but if they can't have a hard border and there is no alternative on offer...FF43 said:
Ireland is one of the few cards in Britain's hands. It will be arguing for soft borders from within the EU. I don't think it will have an effective veto however as the default option - minimal deal - is the one it's trying to avoid.Charles said:
Doesn't that strengthen May's hand?williamglenn said:
(but to be clear, as per my other post, I think they are setting up a financial ask from the EU as compensation)0 -
Scottish self determination is not a card available to the EU as Spain and every other country would throw a fit.williamglenn said:
Oh please. In just the same way, you could say the EU won't play the card of demanding Scottish self-determination, but it exists.Charles said:
That's why we won't play the card. Everyone knows it exists, that's all that matterswilliamglenn said:
Playing brinkmanship over issues like this would be the surest way to ensure the UK's territorial integrity is called into question.Charles said:
Yes it is subject to QMV - but if Ireland won't sign a deal then it would have to leave the EU.williamglenn said:
Ireland's vote is only technically needed to extend negotiations. Approval of the deal is subject to QMV.Charles said:
Doesn't that strengthen May's hand?williamglenn said:
The UK government's current position is that this question can be magicked away with technology. Will that stand up to reality?
It increases the cost of failure for the EU - another factor encouraging them to act rationally in negotiations
You've really never done much negotiating, have you?
Conducting the negotiation with an imperialist hauteur that assumes the other countries of the British Isles have no choice but to follow the English simply guarantees the death of the UK.
It would be the end of the EU if the EU were to meddle in a countries territorial integrity.0 -
It looks very sensible to me. We need an imaginative constitutional settlement that works for all parts of the UK. That means devolving powers away from Westminster or, in this case, Brussels. The only way the Union is going to survive is if English Tories accept this.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Gordon Brown really is a ****ing idiot. Just a day after I say something nice about him, he's banging on about flinging more powers at Holyrood/the SNP.
Yeah, because constantly giving ground to devolution in one part of the UK has worked really well so far, hasn't it?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39309133
Edited extra bit: I should add, I'm not saying the constitutional settlement should remain as is forever (indeed, I want an English Parliament) but reacting to the current situation by throwing a raft of powers at Holyrood will only embolden the SNP and exacerbate the as yet unanswered (unasked, you might even say) West Lothian Question.
it's short term tactical bullshit neglecting utterly the strategic picture. Very New Labour.
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Morris_Dancer said:
Miss DiCanio, entirely possible.
Mr. Sandpit, not everyone... now May has to handle this as well as the SNP wanting another referendum and negotiating the EU exit.
Brown's a ****ing idiot. I know I wrote that already, but it's such an important point I felt it best I write it again just in case anyone missed it the first time.
Agreed. It seems Brown wants to do to our constitution what he did to our economy.
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Whatever happened to the Anglo-Irish?Charles said:
You may have forgotten, I have a very long institutional memory of Anglo-Irish affairsSouthamObserver said:
Along with us somehow bestriding the world with Donald Trump, this is Atlanticist fantasy. Anyone with even the remotest understanding of Irish history would know that there is no way on God's earth the Irish will leave the EU and throw their lot in with the British. Quite frankly, as the Brexit vote shows, we can never be relied on to do the right thing by Ireland.Charles said:
The implication is that if there is "no deal" and a hard border then Eire will have no option but to leave the EU as well. I doubt it would ever be spelt out that obviously, but if they can't have a hard border and there is no alternative on offer...FF43 said:
Ireland is one of the few cards in Britain's hands. It will be arguing for soft borders from within the EU. I don't think it will have an effective veto however as the default option - minimal deal - is the one it's trying to avoid.Charles said:
Doesn't that strengthen May's hand?williamglenn said:
(but to be clear, as per my other post, I think they are setting up a financial ask from the EU as compensation)
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I wonder why he isn't busy regaling us with tales of Merkel's triumph in Washington?felix said:
Yes but don't expect him to get that.Charles said:
Doesn't that strengthen May's hand?williamglenn said:0 -
You make it sound like the Scottish Parliament doesn't exist.Barnesian said:
It's a matter of Scotland "taking back control" from Westminster which is fixated on union and prevents Scotland from enacting its own laws. Strategically there is a clear analogy with the case for Brexit.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Gordon Brown really is a ****ing idiot. Just a day after I say something nice about him, he's banging on about flinging more powers at Holyrood/the SNP.
Yeah, because constantly giving ground to devolution in one part of the UK has worked really well so far, hasn't it?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39309133
Edited extra bit: I should add, I'm not saying the constitutional settlement should remain as is forever (indeed, I want an English Parliament) but reacting to the current situation by throwing a raft of powers at Holyrood will only embolden the SNP and exacerbate the as yet unanswered (unasked, you might even say) West Lothian Question.
it's short term tactical bullshit neglecting utterly the strategic picture. Very New Labour.0 -
If Ireland can't accept a hard border with the UK and staying in the EU means a hard border with the UK then Ireland logically has to leave the EU.Ishmael_Z said:
There aren't issues like this, other than this one.williamglenn said:
Playing brinkmanship over issues like this would be the surest way to ensure the UK's territorial integrity is called into question.Charles said:
Yes it is subject to QMV - but if Ireland won't sign a deal then it would have to leave the EU.williamglenn said:
Ireland's vote is only technically needed to extend negotiations. Approval of the deal is subject to QMV.Charles said:
Doesn't that strengthen May's hand?williamglenn said:
The UK government's current position is that this question can be magicked away with technology. Will that stand up to reality?
It increases the cost of failure for the EU - another factor encouraging them to act rationally in negotiations
I don't understand why Ireland would have to leave if it vetoed a deal. Sorry to be dim but could someone explain?0 -
The EU has no locus in Scotland. The UK has no locus in Eire.williamglenn said:
Oh please. In just the same way, you could say the EU won't play the card of demanding Scottish self-determination, but it exists.Charles said:
That's why we won't play the card. Everyone knows it exists, that's all that matterswilliamglenn said:
Playing brinkmanship over issues like this would be the surest way to ensure the UK's territorial integrity is called into question.Charles said:
Yes it is subject to QMV - but if Ireland won't sign a deal then it would have to leave the EU.williamglenn said:
Ireland's vote is only technically needed to extend negotiations. Approval of the deal is subject to QMV.Charles said:
Doesn't that strengthen May's hand?williamglenn said:
The UK government's current position is that this question can be magicked away with technology. Will that stand up to reality?
It increases the cost of failure for the EU - another factor encouraging them to act rationally in negotiations
You've really never done much negotiating, have you?
Conducting the negotiation with an imperialist hauteur that assumes the other countries of the British Isles have no choice but to follow the English simply guarantees the death of the UK.
But the TD has said that Eire won't agree to a deal with a hard border. I reckon that (at least for now!) he does have some right to speak for Eire.0 -
We either choose to negotiate around the deal the EU offers us or we walk away and inflict immense damage on ourselves. We know this (see David Davis and the Brexit committee this week) and the EU knows this. It has been clear since the very start. The swivel-eyed Tory right wingers in the Commons and the press are clearly gunning for the walking away option now and May will do nothing to upset the Four Editors of the Brexopalypse, so that is what is likely to happen. The Europeans will, of course, be blamed.williamglenn said:
Oh please. In just the same way, you could say the EU won't play the card of demanding Scottish self-determination, but it exists.Charles said:
That's why we won't play the card. Everyone knows it exists, that's all that matterswilliamglenn said:
Playing brinkmanship over issues like this would be the surest way to ensure the UK's territorial integrity is called into question.Charles said:
Yes it is subject to QMV - but if Ireland won't sign a deal then it would have to leave the EU.williamglenn said:
Ireland's vote is only technically needed to extend negotiations. Approval of the deal is subject to QMV.Charles said:
Doesn't that strengthen May's hand?williamglenn said:
The UK government's current position is that this question can be magicked away with technology. Will that stand up to reality?
It increases the cost of failure for the EU - another factor encouraging them to act rationally in negotiations
You've really never done much negotiating, have you?
Conducting the negotiation with an imperialist hauteur that assumes the other countries of the British Isles have no choice but to follow the English simply guarantees the death of the UK.
0 -
0
-
We weren't members of the Ascendancy - who in many cases behaved poorly. We were one of the Tribes, who had a very different relationship with our fellow countrymen.SouthamObserver said:
Whatever happened to the Anglo-Irish?Charles said:
You may have forgotten, I have a very long institutional memory of Anglo-Irish affairsSouthamObserver said:
Along with us somehow bestriding the world with Donald Trump, this is Atlanticist fantasy. Anyone with even the remotest understanding of Irish history would know that there is no way on God's earth the Irish will leave the EU and throw their lot in with the British. Quite frankly, as the Brexit vote shows, we can never be relied on to do the right thing by Ireland.Charles said:
The implication is that if there is "no deal" and a hard border then Eire will have no option but to leave the EU as well. I doubt it would ever be spelt out that obviously, but if they can't have a hard border and there is no alternative on offer...FF43 said:
Ireland is one of the few cards in Britain's hands. It will be arguing for soft borders from within the EU. I don't think it will have an effective veto however as the default option - minimal deal - is the one it's trying to avoid.Charles said:
Doesn't that strengthen May's hand?williamglenn said:
(but to be clear, as per my other post, I think they are setting up a financial ask from the EU as compensation)0 -
Mr. Hopkins, I don't know if Brown's maliciously trying to harm the UK, but his cretinism is beyond doubt.
Mr. Observer, throwing more power at Holyrood whilst England has nothing is unsustainable.
Let's say we did what Brown suggested. What's the point of Scottish MPs? Practically nothing they vote on will apply to their own constituents. Why should England then effectively be in a currency union with a practically independent Scotland?
If Scots want independence, they should vote for it. If there's a desire for increased devolution and a new settlement that applies to England, Wales and Scotland (Northern Ireland is obviously different for historical reasons) then fine. But chucking more power at one part of the UK is ****ing stupid.0 -
He never has yet. He spent 13 years in government prioritising "what is bad for the Tories" above "what is good for Gordon Brown", "what is good for Labour" and, less surprisingly for a politician, "what is good for the country".CarlottaVance said:
He can't help himself and 'rise above it' to 'play the statesman' can he?Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Gordon Brown really is a ****ing idiot. Just a day after I say something nice about him, he's banging on about flinging more powers at Holyrood/the SNP.
0 -
Anyone with even the remotest knowledge of your powers of prediction would bet on Eirexit.SouthamObserver said:
Along with us somehow bestriding the world with Donald Trump, this is Atlanticist fantasy. Anyone with even the remotest understanding of Irish history would know that there is no way on God's earth the Irish will leave the EU and throw their lot in with the British. Quite frankly, as the Brexit vote shows, we can never be relied on to do the right thing by Ireland.Charles said:
The implication is that if there is "no deal" and a hard border then Eire will have no option but to leave the EU as well. I doubt it would ever be spelt out that obviously, but if they can't have a hard border and there is no alternative on offer...FF43 said:
Ireland is one of the few cards in Britain's hands. It will be arguing for soft borders from within the EU. I don't think it will have an effective veto however as the default option - minimal deal - is the one it's trying to avoid.Charles said:
Doesn't that strengthen May's hand?williamglenn said:0 -
So Trump has essentially gone back on what he said to May. Not sure how that is a win.CarlottaVance said:
I expect the usual suspects will be lining up to condemn that sycophantic Tory rag, the Guardian:RobD said:
Hah, the article linked in that section is entitled - "Will Trump’s presidency finally kill the myth of the special relationship?"... no, it probably wont...CarlottaVance said:
Didn't you get the memo? It was a complete disaster for May and an unmitigated triumph for Merkel.....actually not even the Guardian is trying that.....RobD said:Just watching the Trump/Merkel conference - did May really leave her mark? Trump apparently stated his strong support for NATO!
Special relationship vs strained relationship
“This was your choice of a question? There goes that relationship,” Trump joked after May called upon the BBC’s political editor, Laura Kuenssberg, who rose to her feet to ask a particularly tough question. There was raucous laughter in the room.
“Would you like to go first? Nice friendly reporter,” Trump said after Merkel called upon a reporter from the German Press Agency, who asked a similarly tough question. This time almost no one was laughing.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/mar/17/may-trumps-merkel-in-relationship-with-us-president
May’s win vs Merkel’s score draw
May was able to come away from the US trumpeting a guarantee from Trump that he supported Nato, despite his having earlier called it an obsolete institution. While Merkel was able to extract a similar show of support for Nato from the US president, it came with strings attached. Trump said he had “reiterated strong support for Nato, as well as the need for our allies to pay their fair share”. He accused other nations of owing “vast sums”, which was unfair on the US. They “must pay what they owe”, he warned.
0 -
Did we vote to stay in the EU? I must have missed that one. I thought I called that right - along with Labour losing seats in 2015.MonikerDiCanio said:
Anyone with even the remotest knowledge of your powers of prediction would bet on Eirexit.SouthamObserver said:
Along with us somehow bestriding the world with Donald Trump, this is Atlanticist fantasy. Anyone with even the remotest understanding of Irish history would know that there is no way on God's earth the Irish will leave the EU and throw their lot in with the British. Quite frankly, as the Brexit vote shows, we can never be relied on to do the right thing by Ireland.Charles said:
The implication is that if there is "no deal" and a hard border then Eire will have no option but to leave the EU as well. I doubt it would ever be spelt out that obviously, but if they can't have a hard border and there is no alternative on offer...FF43 said:
Ireland is one of the few cards in Britain's hands. It will be arguing for soft borders from within the EU. I don't think it will have an effective veto however as the default option - minimal deal - is the one it's trying to avoid.Charles said:
Doesn't that strengthen May's hand?williamglenn said:
0 -
Brown's comments are a load of the brown stuff.
On thread.. Nuttall is damaged beyond recovery, his by election disaster has seen to that, Unless Farage retakes the reins, UKIP are pretty much finished..0 -
Not at all. I could have said to Brexiteers saying "Take Back Control" that you make it sound as if the Westminster Parliament doesn't exist.ThreeQuidder said:
You make it sound like the Scottish Parliament doesn't exist.Barnesian said:
It's a matter of Scotland "taking back control" from Westminster which is fixated on union and prevents Scotland from enacting its own laws. Strategically there is a clear analogy with the case for Brexit.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Gordon Brown really is a ****ing idiot. Just a day after I say something nice about him, he's banging on about flinging more powers at Holyrood/the SNP.
Yeah, because constantly giving ground to devolution in one part of the UK has worked really well so far, hasn't it?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39309133
Edited extra bit: I should add, I'm not saying the constitutional settlement should remain as is forever (indeed, I want an English Parliament) but reacting to the current situation by throwing a raft of powers at Holyrood will only embolden the SNP and exacerbate the as yet unanswered (unasked, you might even say) West Lothian Question.
it's short term tactical bullshit neglecting utterly the strategic picture. Very New Labour.0 -
As a Scot based in Scotland who wants Scotland to remain in the Union, Brown is making proposals for Scotland. He is not saying that these should be considered in isolation. It is up to the UK government to create a constitutional settlement that works for al parts of the UK. It is conspicuously failing to do that.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Hopkins, I don't know if Brown's maliciously trying to harm the UK, but his cretinism is beyond doubt.
Mr. Observer, throwing more power at Holyrood whilst England has nothing is unsustainable.
Let's say we did what Brown suggested. What's the point of Scottish MPs? Practically nothing they vote on will apply to their own constituents. Why should England then effectively be in a currency union with a practically independent Scotland?
If Scots want independence, they should vote for it. If there's a desire for increased devolution and a new settlement that applies to England, Wales and Scotland (Northern Ireland is obviously different for historical reasons) then fine. But chucking more power at one part of the UK is ****ing stupid.
0 -
Then you should know that the Irish will never leave the EU to throw their lot in with the British. The British cannot be trusted to do the right thing by Ireland. See Brexit.Charles said:
We weren't members of the Ascendancy - who in many cases behaved poorly. We were one of the Tribes, who had a very different relationship with our fellow countrymen.SouthamObserver said:
Whatever happened to the Anglo-Irish?Charles said:
You may have forgotten, I have a very long institutional memory of Anglo-Irish affairsSouthamObserver said:
Along with us somehow bestriding the world with Donald Trump, this is Atlanticist fantasy. Anyone with even the remotest understanding of Irish history would know that there is no way on God's earth the Irish will leave the EU and throw their lot in with the British. Quite frankly, as the Brexit vote shows, we can never be relied on to do the right thing by Ireland.Charles said:
The implication is that if there is "no deal" and a hard border then Eire will have no option but to leave the EU as well. I doubt it would ever be spelt out that obviously, but if they can't have a hard border and there is no alternative on offer...FF43 said:
Ireland is one of the few cards in Britain's hands. It will be arguing for soft borders from within the EU. I don't think it will have an effective veto however as the default option - minimal deal - is the one it's trying to avoid.Charles said:
Doesn't that strengthen May's hand?williamglenn said:
(but to be clear, as per my other post, I think they are setting up a financial ask from the EU as compensation)
0 -
Funny but passionate speech by Tim Farron yesterday.
"Our friends over at Leave.EU very kindly decided to crown me 2016 Remoaner of the Year
Obviously I’m speechless, incredibly proud, and I couldn’t have done it without you.
And that title is obviously nothing compared to what I’m called on Twitter. The foul-mouthed creativity is actually quite marvellous – especially when you consider that its mostly from a bunch of blokes sat at home in their pants."
And the odd woman I would add.
http://www.markpack.org.uk/148806/tim-farron-york-conference-rally-speech/
0 -
The really big difference between the UK's relationship with Brussels and Scotland's relationship with Westminster is that Brussels could not block our referendum.Barnesian said:
Not at all. I could have said to Brexiteers saying "Take Back Control" that you make it sound as if the Westminster Parliament doesn't exist.ThreeQuidder said:
You make it sound like the Scottish Parliament doesn't exist.Barnesian said:
It's a matter of Scotland "taking back control" from Westminster which is fixated on union and prevents Scotland from enacting its own laws. Strategically there is a clear analogy with the case for Brexit.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Gordon Brown really is a ****ing idiot. Just a day after I say something nice about him, he's banging on about flinging more powers at Holyrood/the SNP.
Yeah, because constantly giving ground to devolution in one part of the UK has worked really well so far, hasn't it?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39309133
Edited extra bit: I should add, I'm not saying the constitutional settlement should remain as is forever (indeed, I want an English Parliament) but reacting to the current situation by throwing a raft of powers at Holyrood will only embolden the SNP and exacerbate the as yet unanswered (unasked, you might even say) West Lothian Question.
it's short term tactical bullshit neglecting utterly the strategic picture. Very New Labour.
0 -
I didn't realise Chris Bryant had it in for Irrelevant Farron.Barnesian said:Funny but passionate speech by Tim Farron yesterday.
"Our friends over at Leave.EU very kindly decided to crown me 2016 Remoaner of the Year
Obviously I’m speechless, incredibly proud, and I couldn’t have done it without you.
And that title is obviously nothing compared to what I’m called on Twitter. The foul-mouthed creativity is actually quite marvellous – especially when you consider that its mostly from a bunch of blokes sat at home in their pants."
And the odd woman I would add.
http://www.markpack.org.uk/148806/tim-farron-york-conference-rally-speech/0 -
Which is why - as I've said twice so far on the thread but you haven't considered - is that they are really looking for compensation from the EU.SouthamObserver said:
Then you should know that the Irish will never leave the EU to throw their lot in with the British. The British cannot be trusted to do the right thing by Ireland. See Brexit.Charles said:
We weren't members of the Ascendancy - who in many cases behaved poorly. We were one of the Tribes, who had a very different relationship with our fellow countrymen.SouthamObserver said:
Whatever happened to the Anglo-Irish?Charles said:
You may have forgotten, I have a very long institutional memory of Anglo-Irish affairsSouthamObserver said:
Along with us somehow bestriding the world with Donald Trump, this is Atlanticist fantasy. Anyone with even the remotest understanding of Irish history would know that there is no way on God's earth the Irish will leave the EU and throw their lot in with the British. Quite frankly, as the Brexit vote shows, we can never be relied on to do the right thing by Ireland.Charles said:
The implication is that if there is "no deal" and a hard border then Eire will have no option but to leave the EU as well. I doubt it would ever be spelt out that obviously, but if they can't have a hard border and there is no alternative on offer...FF43 said:
Ireland is one of the few cards in Britain's hands. It will be arguing for soft borders from within the EU. I don't think it will have an effective veto however as the default option - minimal deal - is the one it's trying to avoid.Charles said:
Doesn't that strengthen May's hand?williamglenn said:
(but to be clear, as per my other post, I think they are setting up a financial ask from the EU as compensation)
But it doesn't matter whether it's a financial cost or Eire leaving - either way it makes the "no deal" option less palatable for the EU0 -
There is another option: a 32 county Irish republic within the EU. The recent assembly elections in the north suggest that the mood is changing there and that the day when SF become the largest party in the 6 counties may not be far off.ThreeQuidder said:
If Ireland can't accept a hard border with the UK and staying in the EU means a hard border with the UK then Ireland logically has to leave the EU.Ishmael_Z said:
There aren't issues like this, other than this one.williamglenn said:
Playing brinkmanship over issues like this would be the surest way to ensure the UK's territorial integrity is called into question.Charles said:
Yes it is subject to QMV - but if Ireland won't sign a deal then it would have to leave the EU.williamglenn said:
Ireland's vote is only technically needed to extend negotiations. Approval of the deal is subject to QMV.Charles said:
Doesn't that strengthen May's hand?williamglenn said:
The UK government's current position is that this question can be magicked away with technology. Will that stand up to reality?
It increases the cost of failure for the EU - another factor encouraging them to act rationally in negotiations
I don't understand why Ireland would have to leave if it vetoed a deal. Sorry to be dim but could someone explain?0 -
I'll be intrigued to see how much he is criticised by @AlastairMeeks and others for "not reaching out" to people on the other side of the debateBarnesian said:Funny but passionate speech by Tim Farron yesterday.
"Our friends over at Leave.EU very kindly decided to crown me 2016 Remoaner of the Year
Obviously I’m speechless, incredibly proud, and I couldn’t have done it without you.
And that title is obviously nothing compared to what I’m called on Twitter. The foul-mouthed creativity is actually quite marvellous – especially when you consider that its mostly from a bunch of blokes sat at home in their pants."
And the odd woman I would add.
http://www.markpack.org.uk/148806/tim-farron-york-conference-rally-speech/0 -
Not gone back on, he's not reverted to saying it's obsolete, but he's still critical.SouthamObserver said:
So Trump has essentially gone back on what he said to May. Not sure how that is a win.CarlottaVance said:
I expect the usual suspects will be lining up to condemn that sycophantic Tory rag, the Guardian:RobD said:
Hah, the article linked in that section is entitled - "Will Trump’s presidency finally kill the myth of the special relationship?"... no, it probably wont...CarlottaVance said:
Didn't you get the memo? It was a complete disaster for May and an unmitigated triumph for Merkel.....actually not even the Guardian is trying that.....RobD said:Just watching the Trump/Merkel conference - did May really leave her mark? Trump apparently stated his strong support for NATO!
Special relationship vs strained relationship
“This was your choice of a question? There goes that relationship,” Trump joked after May called upon the BBC’s political editor, Laura Kuenssberg, who rose to her feet to ask a particularly tough question. There was raucous laughter in the room.
“Would you like to go first? Nice friendly reporter,” Trump said after Merkel called upon a reporter from the German Press Agency, who asked a similarly tough question. This time almost no one was laughing.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/mar/17/may-trumps-merkel-in-relationship-with-us-president
May’s win vs Merkel’s score draw
May was able to come away from the US trumpeting a guarantee from Trump that he supported Nato, despite his having earlier called it an obsolete institution. While Merkel was able to extract a similar show of support for Nato from the US president, it came with strings attached. Trump said he had “reiterated strong support for Nato, as well as the need for our allies to pay their fair share”. He accused other nations of owing “vast sums”, which was unfair on the US. They “must pay what they owe”, he warned.0 -
How palatable the no deal option is to the EU is immaterial given that it is not a credible threat to begin with.Charles said:But it doesn't matter whether it's a financial cost or Eire leaving - either way it makes the "no deal" option less palatable for the EU
0 -
Rewarding the SNP with more power sticks in the craw, but I'd guess even more would be popular in Scotland.0
-
No deal puts the ball in the UK's court over the border. What do we do?Charles said:
Which is why - as I've said twice so far on the thread but you haven't considered - is that they are really looking for compensation from the EU.SouthamObserver said:
Then you should know that the Irish will never leave the EU to throw their lot in with the British. The British cannot be trusted to do the right thing by Ireland. See Brexit.Charles said:
We weren't members of the Ascendancy - who in many cases behaved poorly. We were one of the Tribes, who had a very different relationship with our fellow countrymen.SouthamObserver said:
Whatever happened to the Anglo-Irish?Charles said:
You may have forgotten, I have a very long institutional memory of Anglo-Irish affairsSouthamObserver said:
Along with us somehow bestriding the world with Donald Trump, this is Atlanticist fantasy. Anyone with even the remotest understanding of Irish history would know that there is no way on God's earth the Irish will leave the EU and throw their lot in with the British. Quite frankly, as the Brexit vote shows, we can never be relied on to do the right thing by Ireland.Charles said:
The implication is that if there is "no deal" and a hard border then Eire will have no option but to leave the EU as well. I doubt it would ever be spelt out that obviously, but if they can't have a hard border and there is no alternative on offer...FF43 said:
Ireland is one of the few cards in Britain's hands. It will be arguing for soft borders from within the EU. I don't think it will have an effective veto however as the default option - minimal deal - is the one it's trying to avoid.Charles said:
Doesn't that strengthen May's hand?williamglenn said:
(but to be clear, as per my other post, I think they are setting up a financial ask from the EU as compensation)
But it doesn't matter whether it's a financial cost or Eire leaving - either way it makes the "no deal" option less palatable for the EU
0 -
We're used to you being wrong about the future but now you're adding the very recent past to your dismal repertoire.SouthamObserver said:
The really big difference between the UK's relationship with Brussels and Scotland's relationship with Westminster is that Brussels could not block our referendum.Barnesian said:
Not at all. I could have said to Brexiteers saying "Take Back Control" that you make it sound as if the Westminster Parliament doesn't exist.ThreeQuidder said:
You make it sound like the Scottish Parliament doesn't exist.Barnesian said:
It's a matter of Scotland "taking back control" from Westminster which is fixated on union and prevents Scotland from enacting its own laws. Strategically there is a clear analogy with the case for Brexit.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Gordon Brown really is a ****ing idiot. Just a day after I say something nice about him, he's banging on about flinging more powers at Holyrood/the SNP.
Yeah, because constantly giving ground to devolution in one part of the UK has worked really well so far, hasn't it?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39309133
Edited extra bit: I should add, I'm not saying the constitutional settlement should remain as is forever (indeed, I want an English Parliament) but reacting to the current situation by throwing a raft of powers at Holyrood will only embolden the SNP and exacerbate the as yet unanswered (unasked, you might even say) West Lothian Question.
it's short term tactical bullshit neglecting utterly the strategic picture. Very New Labour.0 -
Mr. Observer, Brown's making a difficult situation worse because he's a short-sighted, narrow-minded buffoon.
Now if there's a referendum and a No vote the SNP will be bleating for a raft of new powers, with Brown on backing vocals.0 -
How is gina miller not top of the remoaners?Barnesian said:Funny but passionate speech by Tim Farron yesterday.
"Our friends over at Leave.EU very kindly decided to crown me 2016 Remoaner of the Year
Obviously I’m speechless, incredibly proud, and I couldn’t have done it without you.
And that title is obviously nothing compared to what I’m called on Twitter. The foul-mouthed creativity is actually quite marvellous – especially when you consider that its mostly from a bunch of blokes sat at home in their pants."
And the odd woman I would add.
http://www.markpack.org.uk/148806/tim-farron-york-conference-rally-speech/0 -
The absolute worst thing about indie 2....., gordon brown back with us.0
-
No. May extracted unequivocal support for Nato.SouthamObserver said:
So Trump has essentially gone back on what he said to May. Not sure how that is a win.CarlottaVance said:
I expect the usual suspects will be lining up to condemn that sycophantic Tory rag, the Guardian:RobD said:
Hah, the article linked in that section is entitled - "Will Trump’s presidency finally kill the myth of the special relationship?"... no, it probably wont...CarlottaVance said:
Didn't you get the memo? It was a complete disaster for May and an unmitigated triumph for Merkel.....actually not even the Guardian is trying that.....RobD said:Just watching the Trump/Merkel conference - did May really leave her mark? Trump apparently stated his strong support for NATO!
Special relationship vs strained relationship
“This was your choice of a question? There goes that relationship,” Trump joked after May called upon the BBC’s political editor, Laura Kuenssberg, who rose to her feet to ask a particularly tough question. There was raucous laughter in the room.
“Would you like to go first? Nice friendly reporter,” Trump said after Merkel called upon a reporter from the German Press Agency, who asked a similarly tough question. This time almost no one was laughing.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/mar/17/may-trumps-merkel-in-relationship-with-us-president
May’s win vs Merkel’s score draw
May was able to come away from the US trumpeting a guarantee from Trump that he supported Nato, despite his having earlier called it an obsolete institution. While Merkel was able to extract a similar show of support for Nato from the US president, it came with strings attached. Trump said he had “reiterated strong support for Nato, as well as the need for our allies to pay their fair share”. He accused other nations of owing “vast sums”, which was unfair on the US. They “must pay what they owe”, he warned.
Angela 1.2% of GDP on Defence Merkel got strings attached....
0 -
Yup. Emperors new clothes fooled a lot of people for a long time...Sandpit said:
Didn't we all work that one out somewhere around 2002?Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Gordon Brown really is a ****ing idiot.0 -
Nothing. Unless we are so foolish as to slap high tariffs on imports from the EU.SouthamObserver said:
No deal puts the ball in the UK's court over the border. What do we do?Charles said:
Which is why - as I've said twice so far on the thread but you haven't considered - is that they are really looking for compensation from the EU.SouthamObserver said:
Then you should know that the Irish will never leave the EU to throw their lot in with the British. The British cannot be trusted to do the right thing by Ireland. See Brexit.Charles said:
We weren't members of the Ascendancy - who in many cases behaved poorly. We were one of the Tribes, who had a very different relationship with our fellow countrymen.SouthamObserver said:
Whatever happened to the Anglo-Irish?Charles said:
You may have forgotten, I have a very long institutional memory of Anglo-Irish affairsSouthamObserver said:
Along with us somehow bestriding the world with Donald Trump, this is Atlanticist fantasy. Anyone with even the remotest understanding of Irish history would know that there is no way on God's earth the Irish will leave the EU and throw their lot in with the British. Quite frankly, as the Brexit vote shows, we can never be relied on to do the right thing by Ireland.Charles said:
The implication is that if there is "no deal" and a hard border then Eire will have no option but to leave the EU as well. I doubt it would ever be spelt out that obviously, but if they can't have a hard border and there is no alternative on offer...FF43 said:
Ireland is one of the few cards in Britain's hands. It will be arguing for soft borders from within the EU. I don't think it will have an effective veto however as the default option - minimal deal - is the one it's trying to avoid.Charles said:
Doesn't that strengthen May's hand?williamglenn said:
(but to be clear, as per my other post, I think they are setting up a financial ask from the EU as compensation)
But it doesn't matter whether it's a financial cost or Eire leaving - either way it makes the "no deal" option less palatable for the EU0 -
That is a very witty, passionate speech. Bravo to the man.Barnesian said:Funny but passionate speech by Tim Farron yesterday.
"Our friends over at Leave.EU very kindly decided to crown me 2016 Remoaner of the Year
Obviously I’m speechless, incredibly proud, and I couldn’t have done it without you.
And that title is obviously nothing compared to what I’m called on Twitter. The foul-mouthed creativity is actually quite marvellous – especially when you consider that its mostly from a bunch of blokes sat at home in their pants."
And the odd woman I would add.
http://www.markpack.org.uk/148806/tim-farron-york-conference-rally-speech/
It limits the LDs appeal though, doesn't it? He's just as divisive as May and Sturgeon with the way he prioritises the EU above all else. It's just preaching to the converted.0 -
Your dictionary must have a strange definition of unequivocal.CarlottaVance said:
No. May extracted unequivocal support for Nato.SouthamObserver said:
So Trump has essentially gone back on what he said to May. Not sure how that is a win.CarlottaVance said:
I expect the usual suspects will be lining up to condemn that sycophantic Tory rag, the Guardian:RobD said:
Hah, the article linked in that section is entitled - "Will Trump’s presidency finally kill the myth of the special relationship?"... no, it probably wont...CarlottaVance said:
Didn't you get the memo? It was a complete disaster for May and an unmitigated triumph for Merkel.....actually not even the Guardian is trying that.....RobD said:Just watching the Trump/Merkel conference - did May really leave her mark? Trump apparently stated his strong support for NATO!
Special relationship vs strained relationship
“This was your choice of a question? There goes that relationship,” Trump joked after May called upon the BBC’s political editor, Laura Kuenssberg, who rose to her feet to ask a particularly tough question. There was raucous laughter in the room.
“Would you like to go first? Nice friendly reporter,” Trump said after Merkel called upon a reporter from the German Press Agency, who asked a similarly tough question. This time almost no one was laughing.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/mar/17/may-trumps-merkel-in-relationship-with-us-president
May’s win vs Merkel’s score draw
May was able to come away from the US trumpeting a guarantee from Trump that he supported Nato, despite his having earlier called it an obsolete institution. While Merkel was able to extract a similar show of support for Nato from the US president, it came with strings attached. Trump said he had “reiterated strong support for Nato, as well as the need for our allies to pay their fair share”. He accused other nations of owing “vast sums”, which was unfair on the US. They “must pay what they owe”, he warned.
Angela 1.2% of GDP on Defence Merkel got strings attached....0 -
So how is that a win for May? His position on NATO is clearly not as previously described. If what was said in Washington DC this week by the Trump administration about NATO and UK intelligence had been said while Obama was president the right's fury would have known no bounds. It's amazing what a bust of Winston Churchill that Trump has already forgotten about can achieve.kle4 said:
Not gone back on, he's not reverted to saying it's obsolete, but he's still critical.SouthamObserver said:
So Trump has essentially gone back on what he said to May. Not sure how that is a win.CarlottaVance said:
I expect the usual suspects will be lining up to condemn that sycophantic Tory rag, the Guardian:RobD said:
Hah, the article linked in that section is entitled - "Will Trump’s presidency finally kill the myth of the special relationship?"... no, it probably wont...CarlottaVance said:
Didn't you get the memo? It was a complete disaster for May and an unmitigated triumph for Merkel.....actually not even the Guardian is trying that.....RobD said:Just watching the Trump/Merkel conference - did May really leave her mark? Trump apparently stated his strong support for NATO!
Special relationship vs strained relationship
“This was your choice of a question? There goes that relationship,” Trump joked after May called upon the BBC’s political editor, Laura Kuenssberg, who rose to her feet to ask a particularly tough question. There was raucous laughter in the room.
“Would you like to go first? Nice friendly reporter,” Trump said after Merkel called upon a reporter from the German Press Agency, who asked a similarly tough question. This time almost no one was laughing.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/mar/17/may-trumps-merkel-in-relationship-with-us-president
May’s win vs Merkel’s score draw
May was able to come away from the US trumpeting a guarantee from Trump that he supported Nato, despite his having earlier called it an obsolete institution. While Merkel was able to extract a similar show of support for Nato from the US president, it came with strings attached. Trump said he had “reiterated strong support for Nato, as well as the need for our allies to pay their fair share”. He accused other nations of owing “vast sums”, which was unfair on the US. They “must pay what they owe”, he warned.
0 -
His support is clearly not unequivocal, though.CarlottaVance said:
No. May extracted unequivocal support for Nato.SouthamObserver said:
So Trump has essentially gone back on what he said to May. Not sure how that is a win.CarlottaVance said:
I expect the usual suspects will be lining up to condemn that sycophantic Tory rag, the Guardian:RobD said:
Hah, the article linked in that section is entitled - "Will Trump’s presidency finally kill the myth of the special relationship?"... no, it probably wont...CarlottaVance said:
Didn't you get the memo? It was a complete disaster for May and an unmitigated triumph for Merkel.....actually not even the Guardian is trying that.....RobD said:Just watching the Trump/Merkel conference - did May really leave her mark? Trump apparently stated his strong support for NATO!
Special relationship vs strained relationship
“This was your choice of a question? There goes that relationship,” Trump joked after May called upon the BBC’s political editor, Laura Kuenssberg, who rose to her feet to ask a particularly tough question. There was raucous laughter in the room.
“Would you like to go first? Nice friendly reporter,” Trump said after Merkel called upon a reporter from the German Press Agency, who asked a similarly tough question. This time almost no one was laughing.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/mar/17/may-trumps-merkel-in-relationship-with-us-president
May’s win vs Merkel’s score draw
May was able to come away from the US trumpeting a guarantee from Trump that he supported Nato, despite his having earlier called it an obsolete institution. While Merkel was able to extract a similar show of support for Nato from the US president, it came with strings attached. Trump said he had “reiterated strong support for Nato, as well as the need for our allies to pay their fair share”. He accused other nations of owing “vast sums”, which was unfair on the US. They “must pay what they owe”, he warned.
Angela 1.2% of GDP on Defence Merkel got strings attached....
0 -
Meeks and that lot have already criticised him as much as they are going to.Charles said:
I'll be intrigued to see how much he is criticised by @AlastairMeeks and others for "not reaching out" to people on the other side of the debateBarnesian said:Funny but passionate speech by Tim Farron yesterday.
"Our friends over at Leave.EU very kindly decided to crown me 2016 Remoaner of the Year
Obviously I’m speechless, incredibly proud, and I couldn’t have done it without you.
And that title is obviously nothing compared to what I’m called on Twitter. The foul-mouthed creativity is actually quite marvellous – especially when you consider that its mostly from a bunch of blokes sat at home in their pants."
And the odd woman I would add.
http://www.markpack.org.uk/148806/tim-farron-york-conference-rally-speech/0 -
good to see your views are so firmly rooted in the nineteenth centurySouthamObserver said:
Then you should know that the Irish will never leave the EU to throw their lot in with the British. The British cannot be trusted to do the right thing by Ireland. See Brexit.Charles said:
We weren't members of the Ascendancy - who in many cases behaved poorly. We were one of the Tribes, who had a very different relationship with our fellow countrymen.SouthamObserver said:
Whatever happened to the Anglo-Irish?Charles said:
You may have forgotten, I have a very long institutional memory of Anglo-Irish affairsSouthamObserver said:
Along with us somehow bestriding the world with Donald Trump, this is Atlanticist fantasy. Anyone with even the remotest understanding of Irish history would know that there is no way on God's earth the Irish will leave the EU and throw their lot in with the British. Quite frankly, as the Brexit vote shows, we can never be relied on to do the right thing by Ireland.Charles said:
The implication is that if there is "no deal" and a hard border then Eire will have no option but to leave the EU as well. I doubt it would ever be spelt out that obviously, but if they can't have a hard border and there is no alternative on offer...FF43 said:
Ireland is one of the few cards in Britain's hands. It will be arguing for soft borders from within the EU. I don't think it will have an effective veto however as the default option - minimal deal - is the one it's trying to avoid.Charles said:
Doesn't that strengthen May's hand?williamglenn said:
(but to be clear, as per my other post, I think they are setting up a financial ask from the EU as compensation)
and shouldnt that be "english" so you can get back to loathing your fellow country men0 -
Was Enda Kenny's threat to not sign a deal with hard borders in Ireland aimed at the UK or the EU?. I assumed the former. Either way it's a empty threat because no deal means the hardest borders.Charles said:
The implication is that if there is "no deal" and a hard border then Eire will have no option but to leave the EU as well. I doubt it would ever be spelt out that obviously, but if they can't have a hard border and there is no alternative on offer...FF43 said:
Ireland is one of the few cards in Britain's hands. It will be arguing for soft borders from within the EU. I don't think it will have an effective veto however as the default option - minimal deal - is the one it's trying to avoid.Charles said:
Doesn't that strengthen May's hand?williamglenn said:
AFAIK there's no serious talk in Ireland to leave the EU.It transformed an economically depressed country into one of the most prosperous states in Europe. Ireland is an EU success story0 -
My countrymen have been let down almost as many times as the Irish by the right wing, English-nationalist establishment.Alanbrooke said:
good to see your views are so firmly rooted in the nineteenth centurySouthamObserver said:
Then you should know that the Irish will never leave the EU to throw their lot in with the British. The British cannot be trusted to do the right thing by Ireland. See Brexit.Charles said:
We weren't members of the Ascendancy - who in many cases behaved poorly. We were one of the Tribes, who had a very different relationship with our fellow countrymen.SouthamObserver said:
Whatever happened to the Anglo-Irish?Charles said:
You may have forgotten, I have a very long institutional memory of Anglo-Irish affairsSouthamObserver said:
Along with us somehow bestriding the world with Donald Trump, this is Atlanticist fantasy. Anyone with even the remotest understanding of Irish history would know that there is no way on God's earth the Irish will leave the EU and throw their lot in with the British. Quite frankly, as the Brexit vote shows, we can never be relied on to do the right thing by Ireland.Charles said:
The implication is that if there is "no deal" and a hard border then Eire will have no option but to leave the EU as well. I doubt it would ever be spelt out that obviously, but if they can't have a hard border and there is no alternative on offer...FF43 said:
Ireland is one of the few cards in Britain's hands. It will be arguing for soft borders from within the EU. I don't think it will have an effective veto however as the default option - minimal deal - is the one it's trying to avoid.Charles said:
Doesn't that strengthen May's hand?williamglenn said:
(but to be clear, as per my other post, I think they are setting up a financial ask from the EU as compensation)
and shouldnt that be "english" so you can get back to loathing your fellow country men
The Brexit vote - which was a huge blow for Ireland - happened in the 21st century, of course.
0 -
So, Ireland will be fine without a deal. We won't be.CarlottaVance said:
Nothing. Unless we are so foolish as to slap high tariffs on imports from the EU.SouthamObserver said:
No deal puts the ball in the UK's court over the border. What do we do?Charles said:
Which is why - as I've said twice so far on the thread but you haven't considered - is that they are really looking for compensation from the EU.SouthamObserver said:
Then you should know that the Irish will never leave the EU to throw their lot in with the British. The British cannot be trusted to do the right thing by Ireland. See Brexit.Charles said:
We weren't members of the Ascendancy - who in many cases behaved poorly. We were one of the Tribes, who had a very different relationship with our fellow countrymen.SouthamObserver said:
Whatever happened to the Anglo-Irish?Charles said:
You may have forgotten, I have a very long institutional memory of Anglo-Irish affairsSouthamObserver said:
Along with us somehow bestriding the world with Donald Trump, this is Atlanticist fantasy. Anyone with even the remotest understanding of Irish history would know that there is no way on God's earth the Irish will leave the EU and throw their lot in with the British. Quite frankly, as the Brexit vote shows, we can never be relied on to do the right thing by Ireland.Charles said:
The implication is that if there is "no deal" and a hard border then Eire will have no option but to leave the EU as well. I doubt it would ever be spelt out that obviously, but if they can't have a hard border and there is no alternative on offer...FF43 said:
Ireland is one of the few cards in Britain's hands. It will be arguing for soft borders from within the EU. I don't think it will have an effective veto however as the default option - minimal deal - is the one it's trying to avoid.Charles said:
Doesn't that strengthen May's hand?williamglenn said:
(but to be clear, as per my other post, I think they are setting up a financial ask from the EU as compensation)
But it doesn't matter whether it's a financial cost or Eire leaving - either way it makes the "no deal" option less palatable for the EU
0 -
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Yes - he's preaching to the 48%. But he's got them all to himself. The 52% are shared between Conservative, Labour and UKIP.TwistedFireStopper said:
That is a very witty, passionate speech. Bravo to the man.Barnesian said:Funny but passionate speech by Tim Farron yesterday.
"Our friends over at Leave.EU very kindly decided to crown me 2016 Remoaner of the Year
Obviously I’m speechless, incredibly proud, and I couldn’t have done it without you.
And that title is obviously nothing compared to what I’m called on Twitter. The foul-mouthed creativity is actually quite marvellous – especially when you consider that its mostly from a bunch of blokes sat at home in their pants."
And the odd woman I would add.
http://www.markpack.org.uk/148806/tim-farron-york-conference-rally-speech/
It limits the LDs appeal though, doesn't it? He's just as divisive as May and Sturgeon with the way he prioritises the EU above all else. It's just preaching to the converted.0 -
The borders will be what the British and Irish want them to be. If the EU doesn't like it, what are they going to do?FF43 said:
no deal means the hardest borders.Charles said:
The implication is that if there is "no deal" and a hard border then Eire will have no option but to leave the EU as well. I doubt it would ever be spelt out that obviously, but if they can't have a hard border and there is no alternative on offer...FF43 said:
Ireland is one of the few cards in Britain's hands. It will be arguing for soft borders from within the EU. I don't think it will have an effective veto however as the default option - minimal deal - is the one it's trying to avoid.Charles said:
Doesn't that strengthen May's hand?williamglenn said:0 -
Brown is looking for solutions. If only others were as well.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Observer, Brown's making a difficult situation worse because he's a short-sighted, narrow-minded buffoon.
Now if there's a referendum and a No vote the SNP will be bleating for a raft of new powers, with Brown on backing vocals.
0 -
Morris_Dancer said:
Good morning, everyone.
Gordon Brown really is a ****ing idiot.
Mr Dancer, be careful. That comment might potentially be libellous. And being sued by ****ing idiots angry at being compared to Gordon Brown would be embarrassing for you - not to say expensive.
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It's a mirage. The enormous emigration of Irish youth ( largely to England and Commonwealth countries ) over the past decade is the brutal reality.FF43 said:
Was Enda Kenny's threat to not sign a deal with hard borders in Ireland aimed at the UK or the EU?. I assumed the former. Either way it's a empty threat because no deal means the hardest borders.Charles said:
The implication is that if there is "no deal" and a hard border then Eire will have no option but to leave the EU as well. I doubt it would ever be spelt out that obviously, but if they can't have a hard border and there is no alternative on offer...FF43 said:
Ireland is one of the few cards in Britain's hands. It will be arguing for soft borders from within the EU. I don't think it will have an effective veto however as the default option - minimal deal - is the one it's trying to avoid.Charles said:
Doesn't that strengthen May's hand?williamglenn said:
AFAIK there's no serious talk in Ireland to leave the EU.It transformed an economically depressed country into one of the most prosperous states in Europe. Ireland is an EU success story0 -
OK.MonikerDiCanio said:
We're used to you being wrong about the future but now you're adding the very recent past to your dismal repertoire.SouthamObserver said:
The really big difference between the UK's relationship with Brussels and Scotland's relationship with Westminster is that Brussels could not block our referendum.Barnesian said:
Not at all. I could have said to Brexiteers saying "Take Back Control" that you make it sound as if the Westminster Parliament doesn't exist.ThreeQuidder said:
You make it sound like the Scottish Parliament doesn't exist.Barnesian said:
It's a matter of Scotland "taking back control" from Westminster which is fixated on union and prevents Scotland from enacting its own laws. Strategically there is a clear analogy with the case for Brexit.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Gordon Brown really is a ****ing idiot. Just a day after I say something nice about him, he's banging on about flinging more powers at Holyrood/the SNP.
Yeah, because constantly giving ground to devolution in one part of the UK has worked really well so far, hasn't it?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39309133
Edited extra bit: I should add, I'm not saying the constitutional settlement should remain as is forever (indeed, I want an English Parliament) but reacting to the current situation by throwing a raft of powers at Holyrood will only embolden the SNP and exacerbate the as yet unanswered (unasked, you might even say) West Lothian Question.
it's short term tactical bullshit neglecting utterly the strategic picture. Very New Labour.
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By calling other parties names?SouthamObserver said:
Brown is looking for solutions.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Observer, Brown's making a difficult situation worse because he's a short-sighted, narrow-minded buffoon.
Now if there's a referendum and a No vote the SNP will be bleating for a raft of new powers, with Brown on backing vocals.
Good luck with that......
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Unconfirmed reports of shots fired Orly Airport
http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/breaking-paris-orly-airport-evacuated-after-gunshots-fired-inside-terminal-as-police-launch-security-operation/ar-BByiUiG?li=AAmiR2Z&ocid=spartandhp0 -
Mr. Observer, if a man's solution to his mother's low ceiling is to cut off her head, it's better to stick with your original problem. Fatal medicine's no way to fight a disease.
Brown's a moron.
Mr. Observer (2), you're still going on about English nationalists, who don't even have a party, whilst the SNP wants another referendum three years after their once-in-a-generation vote and the imbecile Brown is seeking to throw more powers to Scotland (with no devolution for England).
Honestly. I fear you're missing the point as much as a man who throws out a superfine nymphomaniac and her twin sister because they didn't fold their clothes up when they disrobed...0
This discussion has been closed.