politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » My 70-1 Andrew Mitchell next CON leader bet is looking a ta
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » My 70-1 Andrew Mitchell next CON leader bet is looking a tad more promising
Just before Christmas last year, a couple of days after the Michael Crick film raising doubts about the whole Plebgate issue, I put a bit of money on Andrew Mitchell for next CON leader with Betfair at 70/1.
Comments
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He should be made next Foreign Sec !0
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It`s not a long shot.It`s money down the drain0
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That was the response here in May 2005 when I said get on Obama at 50/1.SMukesh said:It`s not a long shot.It`s money down the drain
There was little enthusiasm is the summer of 2005 when I said get on Cameron for next CON leader. I got bets at 11/1.
I got on EdM two years out at 33/1 and my recommendation to back Galloway in the Bradford by election at 33/1 was widely rubbished.
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Key problem is he isn't very likeable, and his only profile beyond plebgate is as the willing frontman of one of the most unpopular policies amongst the party members who will decide the next leadership election. 100-1 would be too short.0
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Well done on your successes as Obama,Galloway and Ed Miliband are good ones.MikeSmithson said:
That was the response here in May 2005 when I said get on Obama at 50/1.SMukesh said:It`s not a long shot.It`s money down the drain
There was little enthusiasm is the summer of 2005 when I said get on Cameron for next CON leader. I got bets at 11/1.
I got on EdM two years out at 33/1 and my recommendation to back Galloway in the Bradford by election at 33/1 was widely rubbished.
But could you elucidate on how many duds you placed your bets on while you achieved your successes on the above three?I suspect bets on Andrew Mitchell are a dud but we`ll wait to see.0 -
:^ )
Tabitha Browne @TabithaBrowne
#LeftyLogic I'm pro-choice! Except about alcohol, tobacco, guns, your weight, your lightbulbs, your car, your kids' diet, education..0 -
Isnt he likely to be EU trade commissioner in 2015? Not a great platform for a leadership bid! But there's a much better than 70/1 chance that he wont be in Brussels then.0
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He's not an Etonian I suppose, but will the Cons really go for another chip off the old public school and City block?0
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Next Duke of Edinburgh0
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....as somebody else might say "always wrong and they never ever learn".MikeSmithson said:
That was the response here in May 2005 when I said get on Obama at 50/1.SMukesh said:It`s not a long shot.It`s money down the drain
There was little enthusiasm is the summer of 2005 when I said get on Cameron for next CON leader. I got bets at 11/1.
I got on EdM two years out at 33/1 and my recommendation to back Galloway in the Bradford by election at 33/1 was widely rubbished.0 -
"UK ethnic minority doctors are four times more likely than white candidates to fail their clinical GP exam, the General Medical Council has found."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-245725220 -
What does/could the Andrew Mitchell wing of the Tories look like?
I don't know enough of his politics.0 -
The odds have definitely shortened. I'd say it's now about a 70/1 shot.0
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"He will make an excellent drone"Pulpstar said:He should be made next Foreign Sec !
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Just about all my betting on political markets is mentioned here for the very reason you suggest.SMukesh said:
Well done on your successes as Obama,Galloway and Ed Miliband are good ones.MikeSmithson said:
That was the response here in May 2005 when I said get on Obama at 50/1.SMukesh said:It`s not a long shot.It`s money down the drain
There was little enthusiasm is the summer of 2005 when I said get on Cameron for next CON leader. I got bets at 11/1.
I got on EdM two years out at 33/1 and my recommendation to back Galloway in the Bradford by election at 33/1 was widely rubbished.
But could you elucidate on how many duds you placed your bets on while you achieved your successes on the above three?I suspect bets on Andrew Mitchell are a dud but we`ll wait to see.
At 70/1 you've got a lot of margin for not getting it right. Bets are all about judging the prices and the chances of it happening.
In the case of Mitchell I've been impressed by the way David Davis (the "certainty" in 2005) is working closely with Mitchell.0 -
Good afternoon all. As David Cameron will lead the Tories to victory at GE2015 the suggestion of an Andrew Mitchell leadership of the Tory party is pure fantasy or wishful thinking among the anti-Tory PBers.
Which polls do we have the pleasure of looking forward to anguishing over this evening?0 -
I had a similar punting strategy in this market but my punt on Owen Patterson,now 66-1,looks to have gone astray after those pesky badgers moved the goalposts.My rationale was that post 2015 the Tory party would go back into a comfort-zone of bringing back fox hunting,hanging,compulsory repatriation of immigrants,that sort of thing.
I cannot see beyond the joint favs of Boris Johnson and Teresa May.The opinion poll giving the Tory party a Boris Bounce swings the balance his way and undoubtedly he will get the support of Murdoch and possibly Lord Ashcroft.His record though shows he doesn't put the graft in and does not apply himself.He is fine as a ceremonial showman but without any real depth.
Teresa May at 5-1 is my bet.She's taken on the police and shown great courage in facing them down.She may well be one of the few politicians to have not been consigned to the graveyard by the Home Office brief.The nasty party label she perfected has stuck too but it is more likely her publicly stated diabetes will be used by her opponents in the party against her.To me it is simply a statement of her humanity.Her willingness to repeal the Human Rights Act will stand her in good stead in the party.
Mike is welcome to his punt.Not for me as I think Mitchell did not get his nickname for nothing,ideal qulaities for a chief whip,not PM.
However,the Tory party is an odd beast,especially when wounded and could become extremely so febrile and turbulent anything could happen.
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I agree with you.volcanopete said:I had a similar punting strategy in this market but my punt on Owen Patterson,now 66-1,looks to have gone astray after those pesky badgers moved the goalposts.My rationale was that post 2015 the Tory party would go back into a comfort-zone of bringing back fox hunting,hanging,compulsory repatriation of immigrants,that sort of thing.
I cannot see beyond the joint favs of Boris Johnson and Teresa May.The opinion poll giving the Tory party a Boris Bounce swings the balance his way and undoubtedly he will get the support of Murdoch and possibly Lord Ashcroft.His record though shows he doesn't put the graft in and does not apply himself.He is fine as a ceremonial showman but without any real depth.
Teresa May at 5-1 is my bet.She's taken on the police and shown great courage in facing them down.She may well be one of the few politicians to have not been consigned to the graveyard by the Home Office brief.The nasty party label she perfected has stuck too but it is more likely her publicly stated diabetes will be used by her opponents in the party against her.To me it is simply a statement of her humanity.Her willingness to repeal the Human Rights Act will stand her in good stead in the party.
Mike is welcome to his punt.Not for me as I think Mitchell did not get his nickname for nothing,ideal qulaities for a chief whip,not PM.
However,the Tory party is an odd beast,especially when wounded and could become extremely so febrile and turbulent anything could happen.
If Cameron went before 2015 it would be May,and Boris if he went after 2015.If he wins in 2015,Osborne will take over just after 2018.0 -
It won't be Boris - another old Etonian Bullingdon boy.SMukesh said:
I agree with you.volcanopete said:I had a similar punting strategy in this market but my punt on Owen Patterson,now 66-1,looks to have gone astray after those pesky badgers moved the goalposts.My rationale was that post 2015 the Tory party would go back into a comfort-zone of bringing back fox hunting,hanging,compulsory repatriation of immigrants,that sort of thing.
I cannot see beyond the joint favs of Boris Johnson and Teresa May.The opinion poll giving the Tory party a Boris Bounce swings the balance his way and undoubtedly he will get the support of Murdoch and possibly Lord Ashcroft.His record though shows he doesn't put the graft in and does not apply himself.He is fine as a ceremonial showman but without any real depth.
Teresa May at 5-1 is my bet.She's taken on the police and shown great courage in facing them down.She may well be one of the few politicians to have not been consigned to the graveyard by the Home Office brief.The nasty party label she perfected has stuck too but it is more likely her publicly stated diabetes will be used by her opponents in the party against her.To me it is simply a statement of her humanity.Her willingness to repeal the Human Rights Act will stand her in good stead in the party.
Mike is welcome to his punt.Not for me as I think Mitchell did not get his nickname for nothing,ideal qulaities for a chief whip,not PM.
However,the Tory party is an odd beast,especially when wounded and could become extremely so febrile and turbulent anything could happen.
If Cameron went before 2015 it would be May,and Boris if he went after 2015.If he wins in 2015,Osborne will take over just after 2018.
Cameron, I'm afraid, has rather queered the pitch for those with that background.
Predicting what the Tories will be like if they are defeated is tricky. They got the wrong leaders in 1997 with Hague and in 2001 with IDS. Howard was a good move in 2003 and stabilised the ship. Cameron's has yet to win an overall majority.
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If Boris ever becomes Tory leader I'll eat my hat.MikeSmithson said:
It won't be Boris - another old Etonian Bullingdon boy.SMukesh said:
I agree with you.volcanopete said:I had a similar punting strategy in this market but my punt on Owen Patterson,now 66-1,looks to have gone astray after those pesky badgers moved the goalposts.My rationale was that post 2015 the Tory party would go back into a comfort-zone of bringing back fox hunting,hanging,compulsory repatriation of immigrants,that sort of thing.
I cannot see beyond the joint favs of Boris Johnson and Teresa May.The opinion poll giving the Tory party a Boris Bounce swings the balance his way and undoubtedly he will get the support of Murdoch and possibly Lord Ashcroft.His record though shows he doesn't put the graft in and does not apply himself.He is fine as a ceremonial showman but without any real depth.
Teresa May at 5-1 is my bet.She's taken on the police and shown great courage in facing them down.She may well be one of the few politicians to have not been consigned to the graveyard by the Home Office brief.The nasty party label she perfected has stuck too but it is more likely her publicly stated diabetes will be used by her opponents in the party against her.To me it is simply a statement of her humanity.Her willingness to repeal the Human Rights Act will stand her in good stead in the party.
Mike is welcome to his punt.Not for me as I think Mitchell did not get his nickname for nothing,ideal qulaities for a chief whip,not PM.
However,the Tory party is an odd beast,especially when wounded and could become extremely so febrile and turbulent anything could happen.
If Cameron went before 2015 it would be May,and Boris if he went after 2015.If he wins in 2015,Osborne will take over just after 2018.
Cameron, I'm afraid, has rather queered the pitch for those with that background.
Predicting what the Tories will be like if they are defeated is tricky. They got the wrong leaders in 1997 with Hague and in 2001 with IDS. Howard was a good move in 2003 and stabilised the ship. Cameron's has yet to win an overall majority.0 -
I agree that Cammo has done for Boris. Boris however, would be an amazingly successful foreign minister, in my estimation.MikeSmithson said:
It won't be Boris - another old Etonian Bullingdon boy.SMukesh said:
I agree with you.volcanopete said:I had a similar punting strategy in this market but my punt on Owen Patterson,now 66-1,looks to have gone astray after those pesky badgers moved the goalposts.My rationale was that post 2015 the Tory party would go back into a comfort-zone of bringing back fox hunting,hanging,compulsory repatriation of immigrants,that sort of thing.
I cannot see beyond the joint favs of Boris Johnson and Teresa May.The opinion poll giving the Tory party a Boris Bounce swings the balance his way and undoubtedly he will get the support of Murdoch and possibly Lord Ashcroft.His record though shows he doesn't put the graft in and does not apply himself.He is fine as a ceremonial showman but without any real depth.
Teresa May at 5-1 is my bet.She's taken on the police and shown great courage in facing them down.She may well be one of the few politicians to have not been consigned to the graveyard by the Home Office brief.The nasty party label she perfected has stuck too but it is more likely her publicly stated diabetes will be used by her opponents in the party against her.To me it is simply a statement of her humanity.Her willingness to repeal the Human Rights Act will stand her in good stead in the party.
Mike is welcome to his punt.Not for me as I think Mitchell did not get his nickname for nothing,ideal qulaities for a chief whip,not PM.
However,the Tory party is an odd beast,especially when wounded and could become extremely so febrile and turbulent anything could happen.
If Cameron went before 2015 it would be May,and Boris if he went after 2015.If he wins in 2015,Osborne will take over just after 2018.
Cameron, I'm afraid, has rather queered the pitch for those with that background.
Predicting what the Tories will be like if they are defeated is tricky. They got the wrong leaders in 1997 with Hague and in 2001 with IDS. Howard was a good move in 2003 and stabilised the ship. Cameron's has yet to win an overall majority.
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Not sure about Howard.The real move was the appointment of Lynton Crosby who managed to get the Tories some momentum in 2005 with his dog-whistles.MikeSmithson said:
It won't be Boris - another old Etonian Bullingdon boy.SMukesh said:
I agree with you.volcanopete said:I had a similar punting strategy in this market but my punt on Owen Patterson,now 66-1,looks to have gone astray after those pesky badgers moved the goalposts.My rationale was that post 2015 the Tory party would go back into a comfort-zone of bringing back fox hunting,hanging,compulsory repatriation of immigrants,that sort of thing.
I cannot see beyond the joint favs of Boris Johnson and Teresa May.The opinion poll giving the Tory party a Boris Bounce swings the balance his way and undoubtedly he will get the support of Murdoch and possibly Lord Ashcroft.His record though shows he doesn't put the graft in and does not apply himself.He is fine as a ceremonial showman but without any real depth.
Teresa May at 5-1 is my bet.She's taken on the police and shown great courage in facing them down.She may well be one of the few politicians to have not been consigned to the graveyard by the Home Office brief.The nasty party label she perfected has stuck too but it is more likely her publicly stated diabetes will be used by her opponents in the party against her.To me it is simply a statement of her humanity.Her willingness to repeal the Human Rights Act will stand her in good stead in the party.
Mike is welcome to his punt.Not for me as I think Mitchell did not get his nickname for nothing,ideal qulaities for a chief whip,not PM.
However,the Tory party is an odd beast,especially when wounded and could become extremely so febrile and turbulent anything could happen.
If Cameron went before 2015 it would be May,and Boris if he went after 2015.If he wins in 2015,Osborne will take over just after 2018.
Cameron, I'm afraid, has rather queered the pitch for those with that background.
Predicting what the Tories will be like if they are defeated is tricky. They got the wrong leaders in 1997 with Hague and in 2001 with IDS. Howard was a good move in 2003 and stabilised the ship. Cameron's has yet to win an overall majority.0 -
I think one of the reasons people are supporting UKIP is because they're fed up with the party leaders being too young (in their opinion). All of them are about 10 years younger than the average person who bothers to vote. If the other parties selected older leaders a lot of them would probably come back to the mainstream parties.0
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The 12/1 on Philip Hammond looks the best bet available to me. Unflashy, socially conservative and competent - he should be appealing to all wings of the party not seduced by Boris Johnson. While he's fishing in the same pool as Theresa May, lack of charisma is a bigger problem for a woman candidate than for a male candidate in the Conservative party.
One major reason why Andrew Mitchell is a longshot is that the Conservatives see themselves as the party of law and order, and the policeman's friend (whether the police see it that way is another matter). Electing Andrew Mitchell would be to declare the Conservative party to be the policeman's enemy.0 -
One thing about leadership elections is there are huge unknowns about how MPs privately rate each other and interact behind the scenes. For that reason alone I suspect betting on anyone in the Cabinet who isn't being talked about as leader is good value. History suggests that it's as often the person you least expect as the front-runner.0
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I wouldn't want to be diagnosed by the chap who only passed on his 5th attempt.AndyJS said:"UK ethnic minority doctors are four times more likely than white candidates to fail their clinical GP exam, the General Medical Council has found."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-24572522
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I agree wth that completely. Young leaders, like Ed/Dave/Nick compound the problem by giving preferement to those of their generation so those in their 50s with vast experience are kicked to one side.AndyJS said:I think one of the reasons people are supporting UKIP is because they're fed up with the party leaders being too young (in their opinion). All of them are about 10 years younger than the average person who bothers to vote. If the other parties selected older leaders a lot of them would probably come back to the mainstream parties.
So much of what all three of them do that is wrong or shallow I put down to youth and inexperience.0 -
Actually these exams more about communication skills and I know a couple of them who are outstanding doctors but couldn`t get through this exam.Sean_F said:
I wouldn't want to be diagnosed by the chap who only passed on his 5th attempt.AndyJS said:"UK ethnic minority doctors are four times more likely than white candidates to fail their clinical GP exam, the General Medical Council has found."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-24572522
The local graduates have obvious advantages in communication,so no surprise they do quite well in this exam.0 -
One of our older leaders, Alex Salmond at 58, is doing ok........But its difficult to see any of the three traditional UK parties opting for experience over youth - unless its May/Hammond (both 57) for the Conservatives, Darling (59) for Labour (pity Milburn, 55 is not in Parliament), and the Lib Dems.......?MikeSmithson said:
So much of what all three of them do that is wrong or shallow I put down to youth and inexperience.AndyJS said:I think one of the reasons people are supporting UKIP is because they're fed up with the party leaders being too young (in their opinion). All of them are about 10 years younger than the average person who bothers to vote. If the other parties selected older leaders a lot of them would probably come back to the mainstream parties.
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Salmond shouting out his message to the SNP faithful.
http://www.snp.org/blog/post/2013/oct/alex-salmond-conference-address
Perhaps he has only just moved to joined up writing from capital letters.
"Delegates, we are entering a new chapter in our nation’s history.
In less than one year’s time the people of Scotland will have the opportunity of a generation.
That opportunity on September the 18th 2014 is this:
TO BUILD A PROSPEROUS COUNTRY
TO CREATE A JUST SOCIETY.
TO BECOME AN INDEPENDENT COUNTRY."0 -
OT. The clips I've heard from Salmond sound very good. He's a fine speaker and a fine left of centre one.
If he ever gets bored with being a big fish in a very small pond he's make an excellent leader of the Labour Party0 -
To be honest, the more he goes on, the more I can't wait for Sept 18 2014, and for the answer to be Yes.dr_spyn said:Salmond shouting out his message to the SNP faithful.
http://www.snp.org/blog/post/2013/oct/alex-salmond-conference-address
Perhaps he has only just moved to joined up writing from capital letters.
"Delegates, we are entering a new chapter in our nation’s history.
In less than one year’s time the people of Scotland will have the opportunity of a generation.
That opportunity on September the 18th 2014 is this:
TO BUILD A PROSPEROUS COUNTRY
TO CREATE A JUST SOCIETY.
TO BECOME AN INDEPENDENT COUNTRY."
Shame I don't get a vote.
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Mitchell is an abrasive character, Mike, and not well-liked in the Party generally.
That, I think, explains why Cameron was not prepared to go out on a limb for him when he had his little difficulty with the Police. He is however widely regarded as capable, so if the Tories are hungry enough for power after an election defeat, they may well consider him. He's certainly a decent trading bet at 70/1.
There would be no problem with him and the Police. He has been remarkably restained in the circumstances and no reasonable copper - and most of them are damned reasonable - would want to be seen as supporting the numpties and Police Fed officials who are due to be taken in for questioning. There are plenty enough decent coppers out there who would support a PM who supported them, and not the Keystone bunch who have tended to dominate the news lately.0 -
he's certainly self centred enough.Roger said:OT. The clips I've heard from Salmond sound very good. He's a fine speaker and a fine left of centre one.
If he ever gets bored with being a big fish in a very small pond he's make an excellent leader of the Labour Party0 -
He made a fine joke against Labour - about Dougie Alexander's nightmare of 'reaching the border, having to fish out his passport, then drive on the right'Roger said:OT. The clips I've heard from Salmond sound very good. He's a fine speaker and a fine left of centre one.
If he ever gets bored with being a big fish in a very small pond he's make an excellent leader of the Labour Party
'I thought Labour have been driving on the right for years.....'
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@TomHarrisMP: Salmond announces that in an independent Scotland, many a mickle will mak TWICE a muckle. The noo. #snp130
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Twitter
Tom Harris @TomHarrisMP 1m
Salmond urges party faithful to tap their heels together and repeat three times: "There's no place like independence." #snp13
Tom Harris @TomHarrisMP 3m
Unexpectedly, the towering figure of Salmond commanded: "Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain! Now, where were we...?" #snp130 -
@TomHarrisMP: Braw, bricht moonlicht nichts to be far more common in an independent Scotland, vows Salmond. #snp130
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Anthony Wells at UK Polling Report - Saturday night polls
"I’m out tonight, but for those who aren’t you can expect to see a new ComRes for the Sunday Indy and Sunday Mirror, the fortnightly Opinium poll for the Observer and the regular weekly YouGov poll for the Sunday Times."0 -
Three polls tonight:
"ComRes for the Sunday Indy and Sunday Mirror, the fortnightly Opinium poll for the Observer and the regular weekly YouGov poll for the Sunday Times."
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/82640 -
Both Boris and Andrew Mitchell are as likely as each other to get into tangles with petty officialdom.
The difference between the two is that Boris would swear at the officials and make them laugh at his insults.
More SeanT on a bike than Mike Senior in a Merc.
Andrew Mitchell won't be elected leader of the Conservative Party.0 -
"Ten parachutists and a pilot are feared to have died after the plane they were in crashed shortly after taking off in Belgium."
http://news.sky.com/story/1156862/ten-parachutists-dead-in-belgium-plane-crash0 -
It was Andy Burnham (he actually said 'I also don’t want to drive up the M6 and get my passport out or have to drive on the right when I want to drive on the left). I'd give credit to wee Dougie for being a bit more clued up than that.CarlottaVance said:
He made a fine joke against Labour - about Dougie Alexander's nightmare of 'reaching the border, having to fish out his passport, then drive on the right'Roger said:OT. The clips I've heard from Salmond sound very good. He's a fine speaker and a fine left of centre one.
If he ever gets bored with being a big fish in a very small pond he's make an excellent leader of the Labour Party
'I thought Labour have been driving on the right for years.....'
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Next Con leader will be one of Gove, Hammond, May, with the other two as CotE and FS/HS
(or, potentially, with May in the non-job as Deputy PM)
Mike Smithson is right. Our PMs - and senior politicians in general - have been far too young for far too long: witness the insanities of the Major/Blair/Brown era. In fairness, 'indecisive inaction' would be a better term for Major's government.
I would regard excellent communication skills as the pre-requisite for a GP - together with a wealth of experience, compassion and understanding. So if their all-round communication skills are not exemplary, they should become a pathologist instead.0 -
Holyrood magazine @HolyroodDaily 1h
AS: Danny Alexander pledged fuel discount scheme for 2 highland villages without filling stations. "only the Lib Dems"0 -
Regarding the blog article in the Telegraph a few days ago mentioning the fact that a house next to Kew Gardens cost £8,000 in 1964, using the Bank of England's inflation calculator it turns out that that amount of money was equivalent to £137,290 in 2012. The house was sold a few years ago for £2.5 million.
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/education/Pages/inflation/calculator/flash/default.aspx0 -
Twitter
Tom Harris @TomHarrisMP 3m
Delegates at #snp13 end conference with rousing rendition of "Somewhere Over The Rainbow".0 -
@old_labour
Makes you wonder about the approach they took to selecting all the sites in Lib Dem constituencies to benefit. I cant remember a recent case of a UK politician indulging in pork for his constituency on a US or Irish scale like this. Not worth laying into him too heavily though as it would probably just help him hold on!0 -
Interesting.
Norman Smith tweets: Scottish Govt may send out a "Prospectus for Independence" to Scottish voters
Will that count against the 'spend' for the referendum?
Will 'Better Together' get to send out a similar document?0 -
Does Tom Harris think he is funny?0
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InflationAndyJS said:Regarding the blog article in the Telegraph a few days ago mentioning the fact that a house next to Kew Gardens cost £8,000 in 1964, using the Bank of England's inflation calculator it turns out that that amount of money was equivalent to £137,290 in 2012. The house was sold a few years ago for £2.5 million.
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/education/Pages/inflation/calculator/flash/default.aspx
1750 - 1950 : 200 years : £10 becomes £64.70 (devalued over 6x)
1950 - 2000 : 50 years : £10 becomes £203.57 (devalued over 20x)
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May does not look to well and has aged considerably since taking office.WelshJones said:Next Con leader will be one of Gove, Hammond, May, with the other two as CotE and FS/HS
(or, potentially, with May in the non-job as Deputy PM)
Mike Smithson is right. Our PMs - and senior politicians in general - have been far too young for far too long: witness the insanities of the Major/Blair/Brown era. In fairness, 'indecisive inaction' would be a better term for Major's government.
I would regard excellent communication skills as the pre-requisite for a GP - together with a wealth of experience, compassion and understanding. So if their all-round communication skills are not exemplary, they should become a pathologist instead.
Hammond would be a safe pair of hands if still in govenment, but he does not look the type to do 5 years hard graft as leader of the opposition.
You need to be in your early forties to be the loto if 5 years away from a GE.
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November Lib Dem Westminster selections:
http://stephentall.org/2013/10/19/in-the-next-month-21-seats-will-select-wannabe-lib-dem-mps/0 -
It's even worse than that, the re-tweeters think he's funny.Neil said:Does Tom Harris think he is funny?
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Andrew Sparrow's analysis of Salmond's speech:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/oct/19/snp-conference-alex-salmonds-speech-politics-live-blog#block-5262a14ce4b0ebb74892f4ab0 -
"Not sure about Howard.The real move was the appointment of Lynton Crosby who managed to get the Tories some momentum in 2005 with his dog-whistles."
The momentum of a 0.7 per cent increase in the Conservative vote.0 -
"Ha! Ha!" or "Peculiar"?Neil said:Does Tom Harris think he is funny?
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I'd like to think that's the case:antifrank said:The 12/1 on Philip Hammond looks the best bet available to me. Unflashy, socially conservative and competent - he should be appealing to all wings of the party not seduced by Boris Johnson. While he's fishing in the same pool as Theresa May, lack of charisma is a bigger problem for a woman candidate than for a male candidate in the Conservative party.
One major reason why Andrew Mitchell is a longshot is that the Conservatives see themselves as the party of law and order, and the policeman's friend (whether the police see it that way is another matter). Electing Andrew Mitchell would be to declare the Conservative party to be the policeman's enemy.
Gove Hammond May Other
+63.3 +257.46 16.78 -20
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He'll be suggesting subsidies for areas that are reported to have monsters in inland water areas next because of the losses to the tourist industry due to people being scared to visit.Neil said:
@old_labour
Makes you wonder about the approach they took to selecting all the sites in Lib Dem constituencies to benefit. I cant remember a recent case of a UK politician indulging in pork for his constituency on a US or Irish scale like this. Not worth laying into him too heavily though as it would probably just help him hold on!0 -
Labour winning on Twitter - Cons hold a diminishing lead on Facebook (Lib Dems going backwards....)
http://ukgeneralelection2015.blogspot.co.uk/2013/10/6th-month-review-of-cyber-warriors.html0 -
Thanks for the updates but we are all capable of using Twitter thanks. Inane quips are bad enough the first time around without being recycled ad infinitum.fitalass said:Twitter
Tom Harris @TomHarrisMP 1m
Salmond urges party faithful to tap their heels together and repeat three times: "There's no place like independence." #snp13
Tom Harris @TomHarrisMP 3m
Unexpectedly, the towering figure of Salmond commanded: "Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain! Now, where were we...?" #snp13-1 -
Like all ex-businessmen, Hammond needs to underspend against a large budget.Neil said:
What leads you to think this?Yorkcity said:
Hammond would be a safe pair of hands if still in govenment, but he does not look the type to do 5 years hard graft as leader of the opposition.
Short money alone would not allow him to save £2 billion a year.
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Will you be making this point to everybody who posts tweets? Or just to people you don't agree with?HortenceWithering said:
Thanks for the updates but we are all capable of using Twitter thanks. Inane quips are bad enough the first time around without being recycled ad infinitum.fitalass said:Twitter
Tom Harris @TomHarrisMP 1m
Salmond urges party faithful to tap their heels together and repeat three times: "There's no place like independence." #snp13
Tom Harris @TomHarrisMP 3m
Unexpectedly, the towering figure of Salmond commanded: "Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain! Now, where were we...?" #snp13
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I think we all know the answer to that.saddened said:
Will you be making this point to everybody who posts tweets? Or just to people you don't agree with?HortenceWithering said:
Thanks for the updates but we are all capable of using Twitter thanks. Inane quips are bad enough the first time around without being recycled ad infinitum.fitalass said:Twitter
Tom Harris @TomHarrisMP 1m
Salmond urges party faithful to tap their heels together and repeat three times: "There's no place like independence." #snp13
Tom Harris @TomHarrisMP 3m
Unexpectedly, the towering figure of Salmond commanded: "Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain! Now, where were we...?" #snp130 -
I hope OGH hasn't put too much on Mr. Mitchell, Adam Afriyie is the clear favourite for the post isn't he?0
-
He certainly had a strong lead in an earlier poll of Windsor MPs.Scrapheap_as_was said:I hope OGH hasn't put too much on Mr. Mitchell, Adam Afriyie is the clear favourite for the post isn't he?
0 -
Nah. Pork's urban air has always struck me as being more lowland than highland.tim said:Petrol subsidies from Danny Alexander - May contain pork
Acharacle (Scotland – Lochaber), postcode: PH36 - LIB DEM
Achnasheen (Scotland – Ross & Cromarty), postcode: IV22 -LIB DEM
Appin (Scotland – Argyll and Bute) postcode: PA38 - LIB DEM
Carrbridge (Scotland - Badenoch and Strathspey), postcode: PH23 LIB DEM - DANNY ALEXANDER
Dalwhinnie (Scotland - Badenoch and Strathspey), postcode: PH19 LIB DEM - DANNY ALEXANDER
Gairloch (Scotland - Ross & Cromarty), postcode: IV21 LIB DEM
Hawes (England – North Yorkshire), postcode: DL8 3 CON
Kirkby-in-Furness (England – Cumbria), postcode: LA17 LABOUR
Lynton (England – Devon), postcode: EX35 LIB DEM
Strathpeffer (Scotland - Ross & Cromarty), postcode: IV14 LIB DEM.
0 -
I think you don't. We can all use twitter if we wish too and read inane one liners to the hearts content. Do we really need a constant barrage of it here though ? And yes, leaving aside your arrogance in presuming to know what I think, that does apply to tweets I agree with. If you want to tweet do it on twitter.Neil said:
I think we all know the answer to that.saddened said:
Will you be making this point to everybody who posts tweets? Or just to people you don't agree with?HortenceWithering said:
Thanks for the updates but we are all capable of using Twitter thanks. Inane quips are bad enough the first time around without being recycled ad infinitum.fitalass said:Twitter
Tom Harris @TomHarrisMP 1m
Salmond urges party faithful to tap their heels together and repeat three times: "There's no place like independence." #snp13
Tom Harris @TomHarrisMP 3m
Unexpectedly, the towering figure of Salmond commanded: "Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain! Now, where were we...?" #snp130 -
This tactic doesn't surprise me, its an attempt by the SNP to try and get their chosen edited 'highlights' of their White Paper directly to Scottish voters bypassing the MSM. I have no problem with that as long as its a direct mail drop clearly labelled and funded by the SNP or the Yes Campaign. What concerns me is Norman Smith suggesting that the Scottish Government many send out a 'Prospectus for Independence', that really would be a misuse of the SNP's position in Government. This could yet be another sign of the recent fracturing of the Yes campaign in different directions.CarlottaVance said:
Interesting.
Norman Smith tweets: Scottish Govt may send out a "Prospectus for Independence" to Scottish voters
Will that count against the 'spend' for the referendum?
Will 'Better Together' get to send out a similar document?0 -
It is so obvious that he was desperate to get a small town in a Labour controlled area to make the proposal seem" fair and balanced". Kirkby-in-Furness is not exactly in the middle of nowhere as can be seen from this link.
https://maps.google.co.uk/maps?q=kirkby+in+furness&hl=en&ll=54.186147,-3.069992&spn=0.17478,0.528374&sll=57.347644,-4.415474&sspn=0.161897,0.528374&hnear=Kirkby-in-Furness,+Cumbria,+United+Kingdom&t=m&z=12tim said:Petrol subsidies from Danny Alexander - May contain pork
Acharacle (Scotland – Lochaber), postcode: PH36 - LIB DEM
Achnasheen (Scotland – Ross & Cromarty), postcode: IV22 -LIB DEM
Appin (Scotland – Argyll and Bute) postcode: PA38 - LIB DEM
Carrbridge (Scotland - Badenoch and Strathspey), postcode: PH23 LIB DEM - DANNY ALEXANDER
Dalwhinnie (Scotland - Badenoch and Strathspey), postcode: PH19 LIB DEM - DANNY ALEXANDER
Gairloch (Scotland - Ross & Cromarty), postcode: IV21 LIB DEM
Hawes (England – North Yorkshire), postcode: DL8 3 CON
Kirkby-in-Furness (England – Cumbria), postcode: LA17 LABOUR
Lynton (England – Devon), postcode: EX35 LIB DEM
Strathpeffer (Scotland - Ross & Cromarty), postcode: IV14 LIB DEM.0 -
You'll forgive me if I let time be the judge of your statement.HortenceWithering said:
I think you don't. We can all use twitter if we wish too and read inane one liners to the hearts content. Do we really need a constant barrage of it here though ? And yes, leaving aside your arrogance in presuming to know what I think, that does apply to tweets I agree with. If you want to tweet do it on twitter.Neil said:
I think we all know the answer to that.saddened said:
Will you be making this point to everybody who posts tweets? Or just to people you don't agree with?HortenceWithering said:
Thanks for the updates but we are all capable of using Twitter thanks. Inane quips are bad enough the first time around without being recycled ad infinitum.fitalass said:Twitter
Tom Harris @TomHarrisMP 1m
Salmond urges party faithful to tap their heels together and repeat three times: "There's no place like independence." #snp13
Tom Harris @TomHarrisMP 3m
Unexpectedly, the towering figure of Salmond commanded: "Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain! Now, where were we...?" #snp13
0 -
Adrian Edward Bailey (born 11 December 1949) is a British Labour Co-operative politician, who has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for West Bromwich West since winning the seat at a by-election in 2000.tim said:Buy two thirds of Royal Mail, get the other third free.
"The Government allowed its financial advisers to "defraud the taxpayer" of between £750m and £1bn over the sale of Royal Mail, the chair of the Business, Innovation and Skills Committee, Adrian Bailey, has said."
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/story/37951/
So Labour policy would have been to privatise Royal Mail at a higher initial offer price?
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I'll repost my own comment from earlier:tim said:Buy two thirds of Royal Mail, get the other third free.
"The Government allowed its financial advisers to "defraud the taxpayer" of between £750m and £1bn over the sale of Royal Mail, the chair of the Business, Innovation and Skills Committee, Adrian Bailey, has said."
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/story/37951/
The Royal Mail share price has received criticism, but compare them with Google:-
Google went to IPO on Aug 19, 2004 at $85 per share.
By Sep 1st 2004, that share price was $130.
Today Google shares are at around $1000.
So, was Google sold too cheaply?
Or is that how IPOs go.
Labour. Out of touch with reality.0 -
Would you mind posting without putting the previous comment in - we can read them you know! Anyway, it upsets Hortence.....saddened said:
You'll forgive me if I let time be the judge of your statement.HortenceWithering said:
I think you don't. We can all use twitter if we wish too and read inane one liners to the hearts content. Do we really need a constant barrage of it here though ? And yes, leaving aside your arrogance in presuming to know what I think, that does apply to tweets I agree with. If you want to tweet do it on twitter.Neil said:
I think we all know the answer to that.saddened said:
Will you be making this point to everybody who posts tweets? Or just to people you don't agree with?HortenceWithering said:
Thanks for the updates but we are all capable of using Twitter thanks. Inane quips are bad enough the first time around without being recycled ad infinitum.fitalass said:Twitter
Tom Harris @TomHarrisMP 1m
Salmond urges party faithful to tap their heels together and repeat three times: "There's no place like independence." #snp13
Tom Harris @TomHarrisMP 3m
Unexpectedly, the towering figure of Salmond commanded: "Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain! Now, where were we...?" #snp13
0 -
Eric Joyce giving SLAB a taste of what he gave to several Westminster Tories.
'Scottish Labour is horribly out of its depth. Again. Ed Miliband needs to send in the cavalry with a ‘clarifying statement’. Again. There is a very serious economic crisis at Grangemouth. I, and other MPs, have lobbied UK ministers to help Ineos with investment. The unions need to engage with the situation properly – not fanny around making stupid political gestures. Labour MSPs need to get engaged too. But they won’t be led to it by Lamont, Gray or Findlay.
I’ve just walked through Perth. SNP members are laughing their socks off.'
http://ericjoyce.co.uk/2013/10/2081/0 -
Doesn't the government still own ~45% of Royal Mail?tim said:Buy two thirds of Royal Mail, get the other third free.
"The Government allowed its financial advisers to "defraud the taxpayer" of between £750m and £1bn over the sale of Royal Mail, the chair of the Business, Innovation and Skills Committee, Adrian Bailey, has said."
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/story/37951/0 -
If you need absolution from a complete stranger on the internet then I am happy to let you have it,saddened said:
You'll forgive me if I let time be the judge of your statement.HortenceWithering said:
I think you don't. We can all use twitter if we wish too and read inane one liners to the hearts content. Do we really need a constant barrage of it here though ? And yes, leaving aside your arrogance in presuming to know what I think, that does apply to tweets I agree with. If you want to tweet do it on twitter.Neil said:
I think we all know the answer to that.saddened said:
Will you be making this point to everybody who posts tweets? Or just to people you don't agree with?HortenceWithering said:
Thanks for the updates but we are all capable of using Twitter thanks. Inane quips are bad enough the first time around without being recycled ad infinitum.fitalass said:Twitter
Tom Harris @TomHarrisMP 1m
Salmond urges party faithful to tap their heels together and repeat three times: "There's no place like independence." #snp13
Tom Harris @TomHarrisMP 3m
Unexpectedly, the towering figure of Salmond commanded: "Pay no attention to that ou neman behind the curtain! Now, where were we...?" #snp130 -
Alastair Carmichael on Salmond's speech:
"The SNP has had eighty years to work up its independence position so it is surprising that it has taken them this long to produce their White Paper. Let's hope the wait will have been worth it.
Scots deserve answers based on fact, not assertion. In areas like pensions, financial services, defence sector jobs where they would have the power to act, the Scottish government should answer the detailed questions about what independence would mean."
Anas Sarwar:
"When will our first minister stop acting like he is in opposition and realise he is in Government? This speech was all about the powers he wants, not about what he will do with the powers he's got.
Scotland remains on pause while the nationalists dream up goodies for the referendum campaign that they know they won't have to deliver on."
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/oct/19/snp-conference-alex-salmonds-speech-politics-live-blog#block-5262ab8ce4b0760efba2afe6
0 -
-
Oh go on, its better than 'the prime minister's horse' or 'man cries at funeral'.......we had days of those - anyway, its jolly entertaining to see Labour sorts go on about energy infrastructure.....like that's going to end well for them.....Neil said:
Please, please dont let this be a new thing. It's not funny and it's already tiresome on just its second outing.tim said:sign up with Gid-Eon Chinese Nuclear Direct Debit
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Yorkcity said:
I agree 100% about May - she's worn out and looks haggard: she's also done a very good job as Home Sec.WelshJones said:Next Con leader will be one of Gove, Hammond, May, with the other two as CotE and FS/HS
(or, potentially, with May in the non-job as Deputy PM)
derably since taking office.
Hammond would be a safe pair of hands if still in govenment, but he does not look the type to do 5 years hard graft as leader of the opposition.
You need to be in your early forties to be the loto if 5 years away from a GE.
Otherwise, I'd disagree with your analysis. If you want to appeal to the right-of-centre older voter, you need to be 55+ as first LotO and (if replacing an incumbent PM) nearer 65.
Older people like older voters and an MP who was 45+ before entering Westminster would have a wealth of external experience (and contacts?) that would be most useful.
I have no problems whatsoever with a PM who shows wisdom and experience, if not so much 'energy' and desire to be loved/liked and to be seen 'to be doing something' all the time.
If they happen to be 70+ so much the better as it will make it so much easier for them to raise the pension age dramatically.
Seriously - the idea of a PM is their 40's is bonkers - you're there to manage and direct the government and represent the nation, not race around the shop-floor and issue PR hand-outs.
And never, ever, EVER under-estimate the influence and effect on government's decisions of the PM's 'significant other': their views, priorities and circle of close friends and associates have a direct line to the PM on his pillow and around the breakfast table.
PMs are married and want a happy, contented home life, just like everyone else. And that means keeping your partner happy. So if they are overtly political, watch them too.
Evidence: Bercow, Prescott, Blair, Brown (and Mrs T)0 -
Darling is finished , he was a dud at his prime and has no hope of going anywhere other than as Cammo's stooge for breaking up the UK.CarlottaVance said:
One of our older leaders, Alex Salmond at 58, is doing ok........But its difficult to see any of the three traditional UK parties opting for experience over youth - unless its May/Hammond (both 57) for the Conservatives, Darling (59) for Labour (pity Milburn, 55 is not in Parliament), and the Lib Dems.......?MikeSmithson said:
So much of what all three of them do that is wrong or shallow I put down to youth and inexperience.AndyJS said:I think one of the reasons people are supporting UKIP is because they're fed up with the party leaders being too young (in their opinion). All of them are about 10 years younger than the average person who bothers to vote. If the other parties selected older leaders a lot of them would probably come back to the mainstream parties.
0 -
Can those two tell me if we will be in or out of the EU by 2020, I ask myself.CarlottaVance said:
Alastair Carmichael on Salmond's speech:
"The SNP has had eighty years to work up its independence position so it is surprising that it has taken them this long to produce their White Paper. Let's hope the wait will have been worth it.
Scots deserve answers based on fact, not assertion. In areas like pensions, financial services, defence sector jobs where they would have the power to act, the Scottish government should answer the detailed questions about what independence would mean."
Anas Sarwar:
"When will our first minister stop acting like he is in opposition and realise he is in Government? This speech was all about the powers he wants, not about what he will do with the powers he's got.
Scotland remains on pause while the nationalists dream up goodies for the referendum campaign that they know they won't have to deliver on."
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/oct/19/snp-conference-alex-salmonds-speech-politics-live-blog#block-5262ab8ce4b0760efba2afe60 -
@VMcAVSKY: Alistair Darling - former Chancellor and leader of @UK_Together - talks Scottish Independence tomorrow on @SkyNews #Murnaghan0
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The stark contrast with the other parties is amazing , they had sparse attendance with sea of empty seats. SNP have a fully packed hall, says it all.dr_spyn said:Salmond shouting out his message to the SNP faithful.
http://www.snp.org/blog/post/2013/oct/alex-salmond-conference-address
Perhaps he has only just moved to joined up writing from capital letters.
"Delegates, we are entering a new chapter in our nation’s history.
In less than one year’s time the people of Scotland will have the opportunity of a generation.
That opportunity on September the 18th 2014 is this:
TO BUILD A PROSPEROUS COUNTRY
TO CREATE A JUST SOCIETY.
TO BECOME AN INDEPENDENT COUNTRY."0 -
No.tim said:
If I buy a house with Help To Buy subsidies, next to a garage with the Danny Pork Discount, get my letters with a rural subsidy from a sold-on-the cheap Royal Mail and sign up with Gid-Eon Chinese Nuclear Direct Debit (35 year double the price plan) can I then complain about Labour trying to rig the energy market?old_labour said:It is so obvious that he was desperate to get a small town in a Labour controlled area to make the proposal seem" fair and balanced". Kirkby-in-Furness is not exactly in the middle of nowhere as can be seen from this link.
https://maps.google.co.uk/maps?q=kirkby+in+furness&hl=en&ll=54.186147,-3.069992&spn=0.17478,0.528374&sll=57.347644,-4.415474&sspn=0.161897,0.528374&hnear=Kirkby-in-Furness,+Cumbria,+United+Kingdom&t=m&z=12tim said:Petrol subsidies from Danny Alexander - May contain pork
Acharacle (Scotland – Lochaber), postcode: PH36 - LIB DEM
Achnasheen (Scotland – Ross & Cromarty), postcode: IV22 -LIB DEM
Appin (Scotland – Argyll and Bute) postcode: PA38 - LIB DEM
Carrbridge (Scotland - Badenoch and Strathspey), postcode: PH23 LIB DEM - DANNY ALEXANDER
Dalwhinnie (Scotland - Badenoch and Strathspey), postcode: PH19 LIB DEM - DANNY ALEXANDER
Gairloch (Scotland - Ross & Cromarty), postcode: IV21 LIB DEM
Hawes (England – North Yorkshire), postcode: DL8 3 CON
Kirkby-in-Furness (England – Cumbria), postcode: LA17 LABOUR
Lynton (England – Devon), postcode: EX35 LIB DEM
Strathpeffer (Scotland - Ross & Cromarty), postcode: IV14 LIB DEM.
0 -
How the pygmies squeal.fitalass said:Twitter
Tom Harris @TomHarrisMP 1m
Salmond urges party faithful to tap their heels together and repeat three times: "There's no place like independence." #snp13
Tom Harris @TomHarrisMP 3m
Unexpectedly, the towering figure of Salmond commanded: "Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain! Now, where were we...?" #snp130 -
Certainly more common than Tory MP's , even panda's manage that.Scott_P said:@TomHarrisMP: Braw, bricht moonlicht nichts to be far more common in an independent Scotland, vows Salmond. #snp13
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Can Salmond?
You can add 'Nato' and 'currency' to that list.....old_labour said:Can those two tell me if we will be in or out of the EU by 2020, I ask myself.
CarlottaVance said:Alastair Carmichael on Salmond's speech:
"The SNP has had eighty years to work up its independence position so it is surprising that it has taken them this long to produce their White Paper. Let's hope the wait will have been worth it.
Scots deserve answers based on fact, not assertion. In areas like pensions, financial services, defence sector jobs where they would have the power to act, the Scottish government should answer the detailed questions about what independence would mean."
Anas Sarwar:
"When will our first minister stop acting like he is in opposition and realise he is in Government? This speech was all about the powers he wants, not about what he will do with the powers he's got.
Scotland remains on pause while the nationalists dream up goodies for the referendum campaign that they know they won't have to deliver on."
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/oct/19/snp-conference-alex-salmonds-speech-politics-live-blog#block-5262ab8ce4b0760efba2afe60 -
SKY's take:
"SNP: Tartan Tories No More - It's 'Red Alex'"
http://news.sky.com/story/1156878/snp-tartan-tories-no-more-its-red-alex0 -
They send out packs of lies on a daily basis , we don't need any more from those clowns. Perfectly acceptable for the elected government to give the Sottish people information on the referendum. Better Together can use their donations from foreigners to pay for their garbage.CarlottaVance said:Interesting.
Norman Smith tweets: Scottish Govt may send out a "Prospectus for Independence" to Scottish voters
Will that count against the 'spend' for the referendum?
Will 'Better Together' get to send out a similar document?0
