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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » My 70-1 Andrew Mitchell next CON leader bet is looking a ta

Just before Christmas last year, a couple of days after the Michael Crick film raising doubts about the whole Plebgate issue, I put a bit of money on Andrew Mitchell for next CON leader with Betfair at 70/1.
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There was little enthusiasm is the summer of 2005 when I said get on Cameron for next CON leader. I got bets at 11/1.
I got on EdM two years out at 33/1 and my recommendation to back Galloway in the Bradford by election at 33/1 was widely rubbished.
But could you elucidate on how many duds you placed your bets on while you achieved your successes on the above three?I suspect bets on Andrew Mitchell are a dud but we`ll wait to see.
Tabitha Browne @TabithaBrowne
#LeftyLogic I'm pro-choice! Except about alcohol, tobacco, guns, your weight, your lightbulbs, your car, your kids' diet, education..
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-24572522
I don't know enough of his politics.
At 70/1 you've got a lot of margin for not getting it right. Bets are all about judging the prices and the chances of it happening.
In the case of Mitchell I've been impressed by the way David Davis (the "certainty" in 2005) is working closely with Mitchell.
Which polls do we have the pleasure of looking forward to anguishing over this evening?
I cannot see beyond the joint favs of Boris Johnson and Teresa May.The opinion poll giving the Tory party a Boris Bounce swings the balance his way and undoubtedly he will get the support of Murdoch and possibly Lord Ashcroft.His record though shows he doesn't put the graft in and does not apply himself.He is fine as a ceremonial showman but without any real depth.
Teresa May at 5-1 is my bet.She's taken on the police and shown great courage in facing them down.She may well be one of the few politicians to have not been consigned to the graveyard by the Home Office brief.The nasty party label she perfected has stuck too but it is more likely her publicly stated diabetes will be used by her opponents in the party against her.To me it is simply a statement of her humanity.Her willingness to repeal the Human Rights Act will stand her in good stead in the party.
Mike is welcome to his punt.Not for me as I think Mitchell did not get his nickname for nothing,ideal qulaities for a chief whip,not PM.
However,the Tory party is an odd beast,especially when wounded and could become extremely so febrile and turbulent anything could happen.
If Cameron went before 2015 it would be May,and Boris if he went after 2015.If he wins in 2015,Osborne will take over just after 2018.
Cameron, I'm afraid, has rather queered the pitch for those with that background.
Predicting what the Tories will be like if they are defeated is tricky. They got the wrong leaders in 1997 with Hague and in 2001 with IDS. Howard was a good move in 2003 and stabilised the ship. Cameron's has yet to win an overall majority.
One major reason why Andrew Mitchell is a longshot is that the Conservatives see themselves as the party of law and order, and the policeman's friend (whether the police see it that way is another matter). Electing Andrew Mitchell would be to declare the Conservative party to be the policeman's enemy.
So much of what all three of them do that is wrong or shallow I put down to youth and inexperience.
The local graduates have obvious advantages in communication,so no surprise they do quite well in this exam.
http://www.snp.org/blog/post/2013/oct/alex-salmond-conference-address
Perhaps he has only just moved to joined up writing from capital letters.
"Delegates, we are entering a new chapter in our nation’s history.
In less than one year’s time the people of Scotland will have the opportunity of a generation.
That opportunity on September the 18th 2014 is this:
TO BUILD A PROSPEROUS COUNTRY
TO CREATE A JUST SOCIETY.
TO BECOME AN INDEPENDENT COUNTRY."
If he ever gets bored with being a big fish in a very small pond he's make an excellent leader of the Labour Party
Shame I don't get a vote.
That, I think, explains why Cameron was not prepared to go out on a limb for him when he had his little difficulty with the Police. He is however widely regarded as capable, so if the Tories are hungry enough for power after an election defeat, they may well consider him. He's certainly a decent trading bet at 70/1.
There would be no problem with him and the Police. He has been remarkably restained in the circumstances and no reasonable copper - and most of them are damned reasonable - would want to be seen as supporting the numpties and Police Fed officials who are due to be taken in for questioning. There are plenty enough decent coppers out there who would support a PM who supported them, and not the Keystone bunch who have tended to dominate the news lately.
'I thought Labour have been driving on the right for years.....'
Tom Harris @TomHarrisMP 1m
Salmond urges party faithful to tap their heels together and repeat three times: "There's no place like independence." #snp13
Tom Harris @TomHarrisMP 3m
Unexpectedly, the towering figure of Salmond commanded: "Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain! Now, where were we...?" #snp13
"I’m out tonight, but for those who aren’t you can expect to see a new ComRes for the Sunday Indy and Sunday Mirror, the fortnightly Opinium poll for the Observer and the regular weekly YouGov poll for the Sunday Times."
"ComRes for the Sunday Indy and Sunday Mirror, the fortnightly Opinium poll for the Observer and the regular weekly YouGov poll for the Sunday Times."
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8264
The difference between the two is that Boris would swear at the officials and make them laugh at his insults.
More SeanT on a bike than Mike Senior in a Merc.
Andrew Mitchell won't be elected leader of the Conservative Party.
http://news.sky.com/story/1156862/ten-parachutists-dead-in-belgium-plane-crash
(or, potentially, with May in the non-job as Deputy PM)
Mike Smithson is right. Our PMs - and senior politicians in general - have been far too young for far too long: witness the insanities of the Major/Blair/Brown era. In fairness, 'indecisive inaction' would be a better term for Major's government.
I would regard excellent communication skills as the pre-requisite for a GP - together with a wealth of experience, compassion and understanding. So if their all-round communication skills are not exemplary, they should become a pathologist instead.
AS: Danny Alexander pledged fuel discount scheme for 2 highland villages without filling stations. "only the Lib Dems"
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/education/Pages/inflation/calculator/flash/default.aspx
Tom Harris @TomHarrisMP 3m
Delegates at #snp13 end conference with rousing rendition of "Somewhere Over The Rainbow".
Makes you wonder about the approach they took to selecting all the sites in Lib Dem constituencies to benefit. I cant remember a recent case of a UK politician indulging in pork for his constituency on a US or Irish scale like this. Not worth laying into him too heavily though as it would probably just help him hold on!
Norman Smith tweets: Scottish Govt may send out a "Prospectus for Independence" to Scottish voters
Will that count against the 'spend' for the referendum?
Will 'Better Together' get to send out a similar document?
1750 - 1950 : 200 years : £10 becomes £64.70 (devalued over 6x)
1950 - 2000 : 50 years : £10 becomes £203.57 (devalued over 20x)
Hammond would be a safe pair of hands if still in govenment, but he does not look the type to do 5 years hard graft as leader of the opposition.
You need to be in your early forties to be the loto if 5 years away from a GE.
http://stephentall.org/2013/10/19/in-the-next-month-21-seats-will-select-wannabe-lib-dem-mps/
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/oct/19/snp-conference-alex-salmonds-speech-politics-live-blog#block-5262a14ce4b0ebb74892f4ab
"Not sure about Howard.The real move was the appointment of Lynton Crosby who managed to get the Tories some momentum in 2005 with his dog-whistles."
The momentum of a 0.7 per cent increase in the Conservative vote.
Gove Hammond May Other
+63.3 +257.46 16.78 -20
http://ukgeneralelection2015.blogspot.co.uk/2013/10/6th-month-review-of-cyber-warriors.html
Short money alone would not allow him to save £2 billion a year.
Hammond could have a little bit of a setback if his crazy plans to privatise defence procurement come unstuck as it seems they may.
https://maps.google.co.uk/maps?q=kirkby+in+furness&hl=en&ll=54.186147,-3.069992&spn=0.17478,0.528374&sll=57.347644,-4.415474&sspn=0.161897,0.528374&hnear=Kirkby-in-Furness,+Cumbria,+United+Kingdom&t=m&z=12
We can all read politicshome - can you cut out the links for Hortence's sake please?
So Labour policy would have been to privatise Royal Mail at a higher initial offer price?
Civil servants everywhere must be amused that one of the plans for "fixing" MOD procurement is to pay people a lot more to do it.
The Royal Mail share price has received criticism, but compare them with Google:-
Google went to IPO on Aug 19, 2004 at $85 per share.
By Sep 1st 2004, that share price was $130.
Today Google shares are at around $1000.
So, was Google sold too cheaply?
Or is that how IPOs go.
Labour. Out of touch with reality.
'Scottish Labour is horribly out of its depth. Again. Ed Miliband needs to send in the cavalry with a ‘clarifying statement’. Again. There is a very serious economic crisis at Grangemouth. I, and other MPs, have lobbied UK ministers to help Ineos with investment. The unions need to engage with the situation properly – not fanny around making stupid political gestures. Labour MSPs need to get engaged too. But they won’t be led to it by Lamont, Gray or Findlay.
I’ve just walked through Perth. SNP members are laughing their socks off.'
http://ericjoyce.co.uk/2013/10/2081/
"The SNP has had eighty years to work up its independence position so it is surprising that it has taken them this long to produce their White Paper. Let's hope the wait will have been worth it.
Scots deserve answers based on fact, not assertion. In areas like pensions, financial services, defence sector jobs where they would have the power to act, the Scottish government should answer the detailed questions about what independence would mean."
Anas Sarwar:
"When will our first minister stop acting like he is in opposition and realise he is in Government? This speech was all about the powers he wants, not about what he will do with the powers he's got.
Scotland remains on pause while the nationalists dream up goodies for the referendum campaign that they know they won't have to deliver on."
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/oct/19/snp-conference-alex-salmonds-speech-politics-live-blog#block-5262ab8ce4b0760efba2afe6
Not every family has a cross-dressing aunt locked up in the attic during the week.
You suspect Francis Maude may be behind it?
Perhaps we should lift the veil?
You can add 'Nato' and 'currency' to that list.....
"SNP: Tartan Tories No More - It's 'Red Alex'"
http://news.sky.com/story/1156878/snp-tartan-tories-no-more-its-red-alex