politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The quite extraordinary demographics of Manchester Gorton wher
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The quite extraordinary demographics of Manchester Gorton where the next Westminster by-election will be held
The following is based on a briefing by David Cowling who writes that the “incomparable House of Commons Library have produced the following summary of 2011 census data for Manchester Gorton constituency”
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Liberal/SDP/Liberal Democrat
Brent Central, 2015: - 35.8%
Sheffield Central, 2015: -31.2%
Dunfermline and West Fife, 2015: -31.1%
Hereford and South Herefordshire, 2015: -30.5%
Edinburgh South, 2015: -30.3%
Until 2015, the greatest drop in Liberal vote share was 29.9% at Plymouth Devonport in 1992.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election_records
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/02/gerald-kaufman-labour-hero-jewish-villain/
American allies, including the British and the Dutch, had provided information describing meetings in European cities between Russian officials — and others close to Russia’s president, Vladimir V. Putin — and associates of President-elect Trump
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/01/us/politics/obama-trump-russia-election-hacking.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur&_r=0
Lab 52%
LD 28%
Con 7%
UKIP 6%
Grn 5%
Oth 2%
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/01/lords-defeat-government-over-rights-of-eu-citizens-in-uk-brexit-bill
a turning point after the disappointment of copeland.
I wonder why the Tories let it through? Cock up? (most likely) - or a trap for Labour in the Hoc?
Good luck with that 'turning point' - I'm not sure 'Labour prioritises foreigners over Brits' is the strongest platform to mount a relaunch from....
http://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/lets-kill-the-drill-approach-in-schools
Singapore education discourages creativity and thinking for yourself.....I wonder why [Innocent Face]
I think most people, when they look in to the issues, would support the position taken by the government ie that any guarantee must be reciprocated by the EU for British citizens overseas. In the meantime the government should act immediately to make a more straightforward and inexpensive route to permanent residency for long term EU residents here. This would give certainty to people and avoid people leaving due to the uncertainty of Brexit.
Manchester Gorton: - ‘Latest betting has LDs second favourite.’
I doubt the Lib Dems can go from losing their deposit in GE2015, to overturning a 24K majority 2017, but to come in the top three would be quite an achievement for them.
On EU residents it does sound as though the government could simplify the process and significantly increase handling capacity......
Interesting article about the education system, IMO a balance is needed between rote leaning of facts and teaching students to be able to think for themselves.
However, I really don't think PB is the right place to conduct your illicit affair.
http://www.sistic.com.sg/events/ceddie0217
If you have the chance the Singapore National Gallery is well worth checking out - the art is not bad, but the repurposing of two colonial era buildings masterful
The Commons will overturn the amendment and send the bill back to the Lords, where it's likely that enough Peers will either accept the will of the elected, or understand that going into negotiations with one hand tied behind your back isn't a good look for the PM. If however the Lords vote for it again, then we end up with Parliamentary ping pong!
Have to go to the Long Bar for a Sling, even though it's about £25, and the huge casino is fun, if only to observe the Chinese tourists there with stacks of $10,000 chips
It would be interesting if this is the case because the LDs would be building up their position presumably without much data. Historic data will be useless in a constituency where electors move more regularly so the build up will be by leaflet bombing in the campaign itself.
The LDs task will be to stop flaky voters going for the Greens instead of themselves so expect some very nasty anti-green stuff in the LD leaflets. In essence I think JL is very close to what will happen but I would think the LDs will struggle to break 25% and the free votes will go to the Greens.
A hyper charismatic Green candidate would bugger it for the LDs.
You can't have it both ways.
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/837091005576974342
My rule of thumb is that the best price is usually with the destination's airline, because they're incentivised to bring inbound tourism.
But not Air France, for reasons discussed the other day.
No joy. He said none of them could think for themselves.
Easy Labour hold.
"Kaufman condemned Palestinian violence with the crisp impatience of a man keen to reach the comma"
The prime mover in this situation is the UK, the responsibility lies with the Government to set out its principles for leaving.
All this bluster presages the odious line we will be fed by the Government, the media and the PB toryherd every time the UK doesn't get its own way - it's all the fault of Johnny Foreigner for not rolling over and it proves we were right to quit the EU in favour of cuddling up to that nice Mr Trump.
Sweden set to reintroduce conscription: broadcaster SR https://t.co/8GpnplEuW7
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/02/gerald-kaufman-labour-hero-jewish-villain/
I just can't see the logic. As someone who has another home outside of the UK (in the EU) I would feel much more confident of my position if the UK had unilaterally given an undertaking to those foreigners living in this country. Wouldn't you?
Cnut.
No name calling, unless you're dyslexic.
I didn't say that.
The lack of any guarantee to UK citizens by the EU (for this issue is to be negotiated at that level and not by any member state) is simply because those negotiations cannot start until after A50 is triggered. The EU has rightly taken that stance since 24/6/16.
I'll ask again, what aspect of a unilateral guarantee requires a negotiation?
@CarlottaVance plenty of EU27 citizens primarily want residency. They have jobs, they have housing. They don't want to be at risk of being bundled onto a plane with £12 in their pocket and separated from their spouse of 27 years.
I'd assumed that at least some EU citizens will be - certainly those who haven't got permanent residency and don't meet an income threshold... I might be totally wrong on this though.
'Get on yer bike!
It also doesn't help that you're wrong on this point. Immigration is officially an EU matter, but the EU has chosen to lump it in with the A50 negotiations which are run by heads of government (admittedly Junker has tried to launch a power grab on that in his usual - ahem - tired and emotional way, but Merkel is the one who in practice made this call).
The key question to my mind is what good this posturing is doing to anybody. It's merely reminding EU citizens that their status is not guaranteed while simultaneously stiffening the resolve of a government that has been very doveish on this issue not to back down. It's just about the worst imaginable way of doing things.
Why couldn't they have made their stand on something economically important but emotionally neutral like the question of customs?
Anyone who thinks the press are going to be on the side of foreigners in this foolish debate should study which papers are read on the Costas....
Both Britain and the EU have behaved badly on this but the idea that the British government has been doveish on this is very wide of the mark.
One of Shaw's....
1). You can't vote or have a passport
2). If you leave the UK for more than 2 years, you lose your residency
Not EU citizens who haven't come yet?
Don't people with indefinite leave to remain have the ability to use NHS free of charge, receive tax credits etc?
If the government overturns the HoL it looks heartless and that brutal negotiating stance could backfire. "So Mrs May, I think the first item on the agenda should be do you wish to treat EU citizens like Mexicans in Trump's America"
If the Government doesn't - well there are 27 other countries, primarily Spain that have a superior hand before we begin.
A difficult position for May indeed.
I'm content to let the Lords & Commons have democracy run their process, whatever the outcome. After all that is what 'taking back control' is all about. The central point of Art 50 has been ceeded, as is correct.
Your point about prenegotiations is true, but if this process has shown one thing it is that A50 is completely unfit for purpose (largely because of course its creators never dreamed anyone would want to leave their perfect EU so in practice it would never be used). Two years is an impossibly short time to agree a deal for exit. It needs to be deal first, then exit, in everyone's interests. It's too late to alter it for us of course but that's one thing the EU will have to change going forward especially with other countries still at risk of leaving.