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SystemSystem Posts: 12,651
edited February 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Don Brind explores the intriguing silence of Len McCluskey in the post Copeland debate

Some time ago I went up to introduce myself to Angela Rayner. I wanted to congratulate her on her debut speech to the Labour conference as Shadow Education Secretary.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,466
    The Unions still need to front up about what they want from BREXIT, Labour and REMAIN voters until then this issue will run and run
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,942
    Interesting. I can't believe it's beyond the wit of market research to know exactly why and when working class (or any other class) support for Labour disappeared
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    edited February 2017
    A good piece from Don. It's nearly always more interesting looking at what isn't happening than what is, especially when what isn't happening is something that might, in the absence of what we know, be something that we'd assume would be happening!

    But yes, Len is either worried that his own position is at risk or that he's backed the wrong horse (or both). Not sufficiently worried to echo Prentis yet though.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,038
    edited February 2017
    Maybe he has been too busy on another foreign union paid gambling trip jolly to a conference.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited February 2017
    Roger said:

    Interesting. I can't believe it's beyond the wit of market research to know exactly why and when working class (or any other class) support for Labour disappeared

    Because the "working class" as a whole is not a left wing as Corbyn and Momentum?

    I thought it was also well established that the electorate does not like party disunity and under Corbyn Labour seems to be a shambles devolving into an irrelevance.
  • madasafishmadasafish Posts: 659
    Len McCluskey is THE perfect contrarian indicator for Party Leaders. You can be sure if Len supports one particular candidate, voters will not vote him into power. Note I said "him".. Unite approves of bullying women apparently,,,http://tinyurl.com/gmownoa
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,315
    Cyclefree said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Cyclefree said:


    The meme of betrayal is quite strong on the Left. I have written a thread on just this topic which OGH may or may not use.

    For a fictional version see, for instance, A Very British Coup by Chris Mullin or the TV series G.B.H.

    Worth noting in that context that Chris Mullin had by last Autumn come around to the following view on Corbyn:
    "One way or another Jeremy needs to be replaced by someone capable of offering strong leadership in both the party and the country. Labour needs to get its act together and fast. Failure to do so risks not merely defeat, but annihilation."

    I have very little sympathy for the PLP on this. Back in 2015 they had one job to do: to nominate those candidates whom they thought capable of being leader and PM. Out of sentimentality and/or stupidity they nominated someone whom they didn't think was so capable. A bit much of them now to complain that a useless candidate has turned out to be a useless leader.

    They have reaped what they sowed.

    (And they've been pretty bloody useless since then, as well.)

    Indeed. They agreed a system which deliberately had a screening process in it, the MP nominations limit, and then proceeded to ignore that process's spirit in the interests of 'widening the debate'. If they had felt that was the most important factor, they should not need an MP limit at all to get on the ballot in the first place.
  • JenSJenS Posts: 91
    edited February 2017
    The Theo Bertram article that Don links to in his excellent thread header is a truly jaw-dropping piece of research. It will be interesting to see who really cares about the Labour Party (those who take the figures seriously) and who only cares about Jeremy Corbyn (Theo Bertram is a Blairite, blah blah blah).
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,468
    edited February 2017
    The position of which Leicester City can only dream...

    I'd say that McCluskey needs to internalise the fact that half or more of his members do not vote Labour, and begin to reflect on the implications.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited February 2017
    the intriguing silence of Len McCluskey: Hasn’t Len got an election coming up soon? He’s Probably keeping his powder dry until he’s ready to give Jeremy both barrels.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,315
    Hedging his bets, I'd imagine. WIth Prestiss openly warning Corbyn, Len does not have to but relative silence can be taken as support if Corbyn comes through this, or reinforces the warning through lack of open support being offered, should Corbyn fall.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,942
    edited February 2017
    OT Oscars. Every year I go to the bookmakers and put £10 on each of my tips. Usually somewhere between 16 and 20. This is the first year since I started doing them that I've made a loss albeit on a £180 stake just £12.

    I was saved by Hacksaw Ridge for best editing at 5/1 which was nice as it was produced by my ex PA! A much more pleasing result than any winnings!
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Eliminating grammar schools has eliminated a working class leadership echelon for Labour. They killed the goose that laid the golden egg.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,027
    FPT:
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    O/T The Guardian spin on this story is really rather funny:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/feb/27/tax-changes-uk-public-sector-workers-salary-exodus-nhs

    Yes, this is the same Guardian which runs zillions of indignant pieces about tax avoidance.

    "is to be changed to require public sector employers to subtract tax and national insurance contributions from agency workers’ pay packets at source rather than allowing these workers to calculate their own tax contributions."

    Surely those should be the same ?
    The affected workers can always write HMRC a letter or do self assesment to explain why they think their Tax/NI ought to be altered at any rate.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    I think he should be having a rethink because of the evidence that he is driving away working class voters from Labour

    To be fair - and this is where Corbynistas have something of a point - Labour have been driving working class voters away from Labour for far longer. Corbyn is just a massive accelerant.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,038
    Pulpstar said:

    FPT:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    O/T The Guardian spin on this story is really rather funny:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/feb/27/tax-changes-uk-public-sector-workers-salary-exodus-nhs

    Yes, this is the same Guardian which runs zillions of indignant pieces about tax avoidance.

    "is to be changed to require public sector employers to subtract tax and national insurance contributions from agency workers’ pay packets at source rather than allowing these workers to calculate their own tax contributions."

    Surely those should be the same ?
    The affected workers can always write HMRC a letter or do self assesment to explain why they think their Tax/NI ought to be altered at any rate.
    I thought the Guardian was all pro tax efficiency these days...that is what they wrote in relation to their defence of Gary Lineker against the Mail's attack pointing out Gary's history of aggressive tax efficiency.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited February 2017
    Greetings from kyrenia Cyprus 21c large g and t happy days... what is the PB consensus on likely loss of vote share in Gorton svp
    No time to read prev comments sadly ta
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,619
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Pulpstar said:

    FPT:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    O/T The Guardian spin on this story is really rather funny:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/feb/27/tax-changes-uk-public-sector-workers-salary-exodus-nhs

    Yes, this is the same Guardian which runs zillions of indignant pieces about tax avoidance.

    "is to be changed to require public sector employers to subtract tax and national insurance contributions from agency workers’ pay packets at source rather than allowing these workers to calculate their own tax contributions."

    Surely those should be the same ?
    The affected workers can always write HMRC a letter or do self assesment to explain why they think their Tax/NI ought to be altered at any rate.
    I thought the Guardian was all pro tax efficiency these days...that is what they wrote in relation to their defence of Gary Lineker against the Mail's attack pointing out Gary's history of aggressive tax efficiency.
    They're certainly big fans of their own tax efficiency, being based in the Cayman Islands.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,739
    Roger said:

    OT Oscars. Every year I go to the bookmakers and put £10 on each of my tips. Usually somewhere between 16 and 20. This is the first year since I started doing them that I've made a loss albeit on a £180 stake just £12.

    I was saved by Hacksaw Ridge for best editing at 5/1 which was nice as it was produced by my ex PA! A much more pleasing result than any winnings!

    Maybe if you backed both your first and second picks (maybe the second with a fiver?) you'd still be in the money? Still, it's only your Ex Machina winnings you are playing with anyway!

    At least these Oscars will now be memorable for something, if not the movies...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,524
    edited February 2017
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Eliminating grammar schools has eliminated a working class leadership echelon for Labour. They killed the goose that laid the golden egg.

    Not grammar schools again. I'm 50 and there were no grammar schools for me. The PM is 60, and her grammar was made into a comprehensive. So how old does this leadership echelon have to be? There are plenty of people like Burnham who went to state schools. Most people under 55 have no idea what a grammar school is or was!
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    Beverley_C said:

    Roger said:

    Interesting. I can't believe it's beyond the wit of market research to know exactly why and when working class (or any other class) support for Labour disappeared

    Because the "working class" as a whole is not a left wing as Corbyn and Momentum?
    I think it's more an 'elitist establishment vs ordinary man' thing. Blair was no serious lefty but lost the working man because of 'rub their noses in it'.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,492
    Tissue_Price said:

    I think he should be having a rethink because of the evidence that he is driving away working class voters from Labour

    To be fair - and this is where Corbynistas have something of a point - Labour have been driving working class voters away from Labour for far longer. Corbyn is just a massive accelerant.

    Damn that Tony Blair for making Labour so popular in 1997. :lol:
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    dixiedean said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Eliminating grammar schools has eliminated a working class leadership echelon for Labour. They killed the goose that laid the golden egg.

    Not grammar schools again. I'm 50 and there were no grammar schools for me. The PM is 60, and her grammar was made into a comprehensive. So how old does this leadership echelon have to be? There are plenty of people like Burnham who went to state schools.
    Labour's past prestige was built by grammar school boys. All long gone now.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    SquareRoot said:

    Greetings from kyrenia Cyprus 21c large g and t happy days... what is the PB consensus on likely loss of vote share in Gorton svp
    No time to read prev comments sadly ta

    We want photos of donkeys with red rosettes!
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,388
    Roger,

    I know nothing about films - the last time I went to the pictures it was too see a new release called 'Boogie Nights' - but you've an enviable reputation for getting it right. In my total ignorance, I did toy with the idea of betting on the PC films this year after the furore last year.

    Would that have worked out?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,492
    Worst euphemism ever. Late night typewriter.

    @PolhomeEditor: Barry Gardiner says John McDonnell's 'soft coup' claim was just "frustration ... he got on the late-night typewriter and penned this."
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,245
    There are two sets of data out today that show all that is wrong with both the Eurozone and UK economies.

    In the Eurozone, everyone is celebrating that household loan growth has edged up to 2.2% year-over-year. Which is a decline in real terms, as GDP growth is 1.5% and inflation 2% (or so). In other words, Eurozone domestic demand remains too low.

    In the UK, we're seeing personal credit expand at around 10% per year, against nominal income growth of just under 4%.

    They need to spend more, and we need to take our foot off the gas.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,398
    https://twitter.com/holbornlolz/status/836201862814662660
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    dixiedean said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Eliminating grammar schools has eliminated a working class leadership echelon for Labour. They killed the goose that laid the golden egg.

    Not grammar schools again. I'm 50 and there were no grammar schools for me. The PM is 60, and her grammar was made into a comprehensive. So how old does this leadership echelon have to be? There are plenty of people like Burnham who went to state schools. Most people under 55 have no idea what a grammar school is or was!
    Clearly you don't. A grammar school is a state school. (There are quite a few local authorities which still have grammars, as an aside, including some which are frequently Labour-run such as Calderdale).
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,492
    rcs1000 said:

    There are two sets of data out today that show all that is wrong with both the Eurozone and UK economies.

    In the Eurozone, everyone is celebrating that household loan growth has edged up to 2.2% year-over-year. Which is a decline in real terms, as GDP growth is 1.5% and inflation 2% (or so). In other words, Eurozone domestic demand remains too low.

    In the UK, we're seeing personal credit expand at around 10% per year, against nominal income growth of just under 4%.

    They need to spend more, and we need to take our foot off the gas.

    I've applied for a new credit card today and you've just made me feel quite guilty now.

    In my defence, I always clear my balance off in full each month.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    After Copeland, broke a personal rule and started arguing for change within the local CLP Facebook group.

    I usually confine arguing on the internet to PB (for a more varied class of argument), but felt compelled to say something.

    We just seem split straight down the middle, with the Corbyn supporter still edging it because they have a real zeal.



  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,492
    Awesome pun from the RSPCA

    https://twitter.com/ptr_yeung/status/836212947068284929
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,524
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    dixiedean said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Eliminating grammar schools has eliminated a working class leadership echelon for Labour. They killed the goose that laid the golden egg.

    Not grammar schools again. I'm 50 and there were no grammar schools for me. The PM is 60, and her grammar was made into a comprehensive. So how old does this leadership echelon have to be? There are plenty of people like Burnham who went to state schools.
    Labour's past prestige was built by grammar school boys. All long gone now.
    Certainly not in the 1945 govt. Grammars existed for a relatively short time, and a certain generation who attended them look back fondly on them. Parents of school age children today don't know what they were unless they live in one of the few areas which have them. I notice no progress made in bringing them back! We already have selection at 14. It is called setting.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,492
    Jonathan said:

    After Copeland, broke a personal rule and started arguing for change within the local CLP Facebook group.

    I usually confine arguing on the internet to PB (for a more varied class of argument), but felt compelled to say something.

    We just seem split straight down the middle, with the Corbyn supporter still edging it because they have a real zeal.

    I reckon an avalanche of Labour councillors losing their seats in 2017 and 2018 might reduce their zeal? Or will they blame Murdoch and the Blairites for the losses?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,325
    https://twitter.com/FoxHedgehog/status/836211740568322048

    McDonnell banging away like a late night typewriter.
  • BojabobBojabob Posts: 642
    @Cyclefree

    Yes, I see. Sorry. And agreed.
  • BojabobBojabob Posts: 642
    FPT

    @Cyclefree

    Yes, I see. Sorry. And agreed.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    I think he should be having a rethink because of the evidence that he is driving away working class voters from Labour

    To be fair - and this is where Corbynistas have something of a point - Labour have been driving working class voters away from Labour for far longer. Corbyn is just a massive accelerant.

    Damn that Tony Blair for making Labour so popular in 1997. :lol:
    I think us blues helped! Blair did lose a lot of voters 1997-2001, to non-voting rather than another party. Perhaps we should have read more into that at the time rather than simply attributing the poor turnout to an uncompetitive election?
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Cyclefree said:


    The meme of betrayal is quite strong on the Left. I have written a thread on just this topic which OGH may or may not use.

    For a fictional version see, for instance, A Very British Coup by Chris Mullin or the TV series G.B.H.

    Worth noting in that context that Chris Mullin had by last Autumn come around to the following view on Corbyn:
    "One way or another Jeremy needs to be replaced by someone capable of offering strong leadership in both the party and the country. Labour needs to get its act together and fast. Failure to do so risks not merely defeat, but annihilation."

    I have very little sympathy for the PLP on this. Back in 2015 they had one job to do: to nominate those candidates whom they thought capable of being leader and PM. Out of sentimentality and/or stupidity they nominated someone whom they didn't think was so capable. A bit much of them now to complain that a useless candidate has turned out to be a useless leader.

    They have reaped what they sowed.

    (And they've been pretty bloody useless since then, as well.)

    Indeed. They agreed a system which deliberately had a screening process in it, the MP nominations limit, and then proceeded to ignore that process's spirit in the interests of 'widening the debate'. If they had felt that was the most important factor, they should not need an MP limit at all to get on the ballot in the first place.

    Well the debate's pretty darn wide now.

    Perhaps the next time they want to widen it, they can place a small thermonuclear device in it, and press the button.

    Probably cause less damage.

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,891
    German sense of humour.

    https://twitter.com/BinsterUK/status/836198993029890053
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,524
    david_herdson said:

    dixiedean said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Eliminating grammar schools has eliminated a working class leadership echelon for Labour. They killed the goose that laid the golden egg.

    Not grammar schools again. I'm 50 and there were no grammar schools for me. The PM is 60, and her grammar was made into a comprehensive. So how old does this leadership echelon have to be? There are plenty of people like Burnham who went to state schools. Most people under 55 have no idea what a grammar school is or was!
    Clearly you don't. A grammar school is a state school. (There are quite a few local authorities which still have grammars, as an aside, including some which are frequently Labour-run such as Calderdale).
    Vanishingly few. I repeat the vast majority of people under 55 have no idea what a grammar school was. And yes I know they were state schools.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,492
    Tissue_Price said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    I think he should be having a rethink because of the evidence that he is driving away working class voters from Labour

    To be fair - and this is where Corbynistas have something of a point - Labour have been driving working class voters away from Labour for far longer. Corbyn is just a massive accelerant.

    Damn that Tony Blair for making Labour so popular in 1997. :lol:
    I think us blues helped! Blair did lose a lot of voters 1997-2001, to non-voting rather than another party. Perhaps we should have read more into that at the time rather than simply attributing the poor turnout to an uncompetitive election?
    What's really intriguing me and makes me think that

    1) The next election isn't in the bag for the blues

    or

    2) Labour are on course for a 1931esque result

    is what will those extra votes that turned out in the EURef that didn't turn out at GE 2015 do in 2020?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    rcs1000 said:

    There are two sets of data out today that show all that is wrong with both the Eurozone and UK economies.

    In the Eurozone, everyone is celebrating that household loan growth has edged up to 2.2% year-over-year. Which is a decline in real terms, as GDP growth is 1.5% and inflation 2% (or so). In other words, Eurozone domestic demand remains too low.

    In the UK, we're seeing personal credit expand at around 10% per year, against nominal income growth of just under 4%.

    They need to spend more, and we need to take our foot off the gas.

    On the UK personal credit figures, do they include credit-card expenditure which is going to be paid in full when the credit-card bill arrives? If so, and if that is a significant part of the total figure, it's very misleading.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,884
    Interesting article, Don, many thanks.

    It would be in keeping with Mr Corbyn's background & mind-set for him to be fully convinced that the workers are necessarily revolutionaries, who only need a proper revolutionary leader to break out into revolution.

    Sadly for him, the times have changed and the workers are more interested in personal achievements than in revolution.

    A pity when someone's mind is so set in concrete from so early an age. I don't think I've ever encountered anyone so wedded to his early ideas.

    Good afternoon, everyone.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,038
    Following on from the conversation the other day of movies vs HBO / netflix.

    http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/01/why-hollywood-as-we-know-it-is-already-over
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Theuniondivvie said:

    German sense of humour.

    https://twitter.com/BinsterUK/status/836198993029890053

    Düsseldorf carnival of 1940 had similar examples of Teutonic gaiety.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,315
    Tissue_Price said:

    I think he should be having a rethink because of the evidence that he is driving away working class voters from Labour

    To be fair - and this is where Corbynistas have something of a point - Labour have been driving working class voters away from Labour for far longer. Corbyn is just a massive accelerant.

    Even their own excise, that it is a long term thing, does not absolve them, as they haven stopped it. That's how poor an excuse it is.
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    Theuniondivvie said:

    German sense of humour.
    https://twitter.com/BinsterUK/status/836198993029890053

    This is the funniest German joke ever - but don't seek to translate it if you want to survive!:
    Wenn ist das Nunstück git und Slotermeyer? Ja! Beiherhund das Oder die Flipperwaldt gersput!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,027
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    rcs1000 said:

    There are two sets of data out today that show all that is wrong with both the Eurozone and UK economies.

    In the Eurozone, everyone is celebrating that household loan growth has edged up to 2.2% year-over-year. Which is a decline in real terms, as GDP growth is 1.5% and inflation 2% (or so). In other words, Eurozone domestic demand remains too low.

    In the UK, we're seeing personal credit expand at around 10% per year, against nominal income growth of just under 4%.

    They need to spend more, and we need to take our foot off the gas.

    On the UK personal credit figures, do they include credit-card expenditure which is going to be paid in full when the credit-card bill arrives? If so, and if that is a significant part of the total figure, it's very misleading.
    What about 0% credit card debt that is covered by liquid assets to repay when the due date comes ?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    CD13 said:

    Roger,

    I know nothing about films - the last time I went to the pictures it was too see a new release called 'Boogie Nights' - but you've an enviable reputation for getting it right. In my total ignorance, I did toy with the idea of betting on the PC films this year after the furore last year.

    Would that have worked out?

    To an extent. I backed Midnight for best film, and The White Helmets for best short Doc, so came out at a modest profit. Tiddly stakes though, as always for Specials.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,718
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    I think he should be having a rethink because of the evidence that he is driving away working class voters from Labour

    To be fair - and this is where Corbynistas have something of a point - Labour have been driving working class voters away from Labour for far longer. Corbyn is just a massive accelerant.

    Damn that Tony Blair for making Labour so popular in 1997. :lol:
    I think us blues helped! Blair did lose a lot of voters 1997-2001, to non-voting rather than another party. Perhaps we should have read more into that at the time rather than simply attributing the poor turnout to an uncompetitive election?
    What's really intriguing me and makes me think that

    1) The next election isn't in the bag for the blues

    or

    2) Labour are on course for a 1931esque result

    is what will those extra votes that turned out in the EURef that didn't turn out at GE 2015 do in 2020?
    That rather depends whether they vote at all. After all, as Mr Cameron kept on pointing out, every vote mattered in the referendum whereas, all too often, in a GE lots of votes don't matter at all.

    Perhaps an alternative voting system might help? Maybe someone could describe its merits?
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Jonathan said:

    After Copeland, broke a personal rule and started arguing for change within the local CLP Facebook group.

    I usually confine arguing on the internet to PB (for a more varied class of argument), but felt compelled to say something.

    We just seem split straight down the middle, with the Corbyn supporter still edging it because they have a real zeal.

    I reckon an avalanche of Labour councillors losing their seats in 2017 and 2018 might reduce their zeal? Or will they blame Murdoch and the Blairites for the losses?
    If you look at the numbers, Labour won't lose many seats, unless they have a real meltdown. Often Labour have big Ward majorities, and big majorities on Councils. They will lose vote share, no doubt, but it will be interesting to see how this will translate. We need to hear from magnificent people like Curtis et all and Andy JS to advise us.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,245
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    rcs1000 said:

    There are two sets of data out today that show all that is wrong with both the Eurozone and UK economies.

    In the Eurozone, everyone is celebrating that household loan growth has edged up to 2.2% year-over-year. Which is a decline in real terms, as GDP growth is 1.5% and inflation 2% (or so). In other words, Eurozone domestic demand remains too low.

    In the UK, we're seeing personal credit expand at around 10% per year, against nominal income growth of just under 4%.

    They need to spend more, and we need to take our foot off the gas.

    On the UK personal credit figures, do they include credit-card expenditure which is going to be paid in full when the credit-card bill arrives? If so, and if that is a significant part of the total figure, it's very misleading.
    That wouldn't affect the annual growth rate
  • Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    Tissue_Price said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    I think he should be having a rethink because of the evidence that he is driving away working class voters from Labour

    To be fair - and this is where Corbynistas have something of a point - Labour have been driving working class voters away from Labour for far longer. Corbyn is just a massive accelerant.

    Damn that Tony Blair for making Labour so popular in 1997. :lol:
    us blues
    Reminds me of the poster Phil Roberts who used to be on here in yesteryear.

  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    isam said:

    https://twitter.com/holbornlolz/status/836201862814662660

    very funny
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,966
    Patrick said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    German sense of humour.
    https://twitter.com/BinsterUK/status/836198993029890053

    This is the funniest German joke ever - but don't seek to translate it if you want to survive!:
    Wenn ist das Nunstück git und Slotermeyer? Ja! Beiherhund das Oder die Flipperwaldt gersput!
    According to Google translate, the English is '[FATAL ERROR]'.

    I don't get it...
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    Charles said:

    SquareRoot said:

    Greetings from kyrenia Cyprus 21c large g and t happy days... what is the PB consensus on likely loss of vote share in Gorton svp
    No time to read prev comments sadly ta

    We want photos of donkeys with red rosettes!
    I was in Cyprus last week and took photo of donkey. Sadly, his penis was so large, photo had to be deleted. Anyway, don't know how to upload photos on here.
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    rcs1000 said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    rcs1000 said:

    There are two sets of data out today that show all that is wrong with both the Eurozone and UK economies.

    In the Eurozone, everyone is celebrating that household loan growth has edged up to 2.2% year-over-year. Which is a decline in real terms, as GDP growth is 1.5% and inflation 2% (or so). In other words, Eurozone domestic demand remains too low.

    In the UK, we're seeing personal credit expand at around 10% per year, against nominal income growth of just under 4%.

    They need to spend more, and we need to take our foot off the gas.

    On the UK personal credit figures, do they include credit-card expenditure which is going to be paid in full when the credit-card bill arrives? If so, and if that is a significant part of the total figure, it's very misleading.
    That wouldn't affect the annual growth rate
    Surely if someone is doing their shopping with a credit card and then paying it off every month they're not falling into debt? If at any given balance sheet date X% of all credit card 'debt' is the as yet unpaid for this type of custmer it can give a somewhat misleading view to how indebted we are as a nation (very).
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    SquareRoot said:

    Greetings from kyrenia Cyprus 21c large g and t happy days... what is the PB consensus on likely loss of vote share in Gorton svp
    No time to read prev comments sadly ta

    Lab 10% down. Libs 8% up. Greens 3% down, UKIP 2% up. Tories 3% up
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,966
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    I think he should be having a rethink because of the evidence that he is driving away working class voters from Labour

    To be fair - and this is where Corbynistas have something of a point - Labour have been driving working class voters away from Labour for far longer. Corbyn is just a massive accelerant.

    Damn that Tony Blair for making Labour so popular in 1997. :lol:
    I think us blues helped! Blair did lose a lot of voters 1997-2001, to non-voting rather than another party. Perhaps we should have read more into that at the time rather than simply attributing the poor turnout to an uncompetitive election?
    What's really intriguing me and makes me think that

    1) The next election isn't in the bag for the blues

    or

    2) Labour are on course for a 1931esque result

    is what will those extra votes that turned out in the EURef that didn't turn out at GE 2015 do in 2020?
    The even higher level of extra turnout in IndyRef2014 didn't seem to have an impact in GE2015. Of course this could be different, with the change option having won. The extra EURef turnout certainly wasn't there in S-O-T C, but perhaps the comparison with a by-election is unfair.
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    edited February 2017
    Essexit said:

    Patrick said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    German sense of humour.
    https://twitter.com/BinsterUK/status/836198993029890053

    This is the funniest German joke ever - but don't seek to translate it if you want to survive!:
    Wenn ist das Nunstück git und Slotermeyer? Ja! Beiherhund das Oder die Flipperwaldt gersput!
    According to Google translate, the English is '[FATAL ERROR]'.

    I don't get it...
    It's the killing joke from Monty Python. Used as a weapon of mass destruction to overcome the Hun...

    10/10 to Google for playing along!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,492
    Cyclefree said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    I think he should be having a rethink because of the evidence that he is driving away working class voters from Labour

    To be fair - and this is where Corbynistas have something of a point - Labour have been driving working class voters away from Labour for far longer. Corbyn is just a massive accelerant.

    Damn that Tony Blair for making Labour so popular in 1997. :lol:
    I think us blues helped! Blair did lose a lot of voters 1997-2001, to non-voting rather than another party. Perhaps we should have read more into that at the time rather than simply attributing the poor turnout to an uncompetitive election?
    What's really intriguing me and makes me think that

    1) The next election isn't in the bag for the blues

    or

    2) Labour are on course for a 1931esque result

    is what will those extra votes that turned out in the EURef that didn't turn out at GE 2015 do in 2020?
    That rather depends whether they vote at all. After all, as Mr Cameron kept on pointing out, every vote mattered in the referendum whereas, all too often, in a GE lots of votes don't matter at all.

    Perhaps an alternative voting system might help? Maybe someone could describe its merits?
    In the next few weeks I'll be publishing a thread on the various voting systems being used in May's elections.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,784
    McCluskey's silence is I think due to the upcoming Unite leadership election which he triggered. He realises that Coyne's chances of winning will be enhanced if he comes out all guns blazing for Corbyn in the aftermath of these by-elections.

    That said, it is difficult how McCluskey could not see that Corbyn is a liability to Labour's chances, if he appreciates that Corbyn is a liability to his own.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited February 2017

    That sums up my view of the economics of Brexit. All that is missing is a Dunce's hat for the Fantasy Economics she keeps pushing .....
    Theuniondivvie said:

    German sense of humour.

    https://twitter.com/BinsterUK/status/836198993029890053

  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    Beverley_C said:

    Roger said:

    Interesting. I can't believe it's beyond the wit of market research to know exactly why and when working class (or any other class) support for Labour disappeared

    Because the "working class" as a whole is not a left wing as Corbyn and Momentum?

    I thought it was also well established that the electorate does not like party disunity and under Corbyn Labour seems to be a shambles devolving into an irrelevance.
    Indeed. It's because the EU puts Brits last. It's made WWC more nationalist. Labour have gone madly the other way.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Dixie said:

    Charles said:

    SquareRoot said:

    Greetings from kyrenia Cyprus 21c large g and t happy days... what is the PB consensus on likely loss of vote share in Gorton svp
    No time to read prev comments sadly ta

    We want photos of donkeys with red rosettes!
    I was in Cyprus last week and took photo of donkey. Sadly, his penis was so large, photo had to be deleted. Anyway, don't know how to upload photos on here.
    Donkey hung like a horse.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Dixie said:

    Indeed. It's because the EU puts Brits last. It's made WWC more nationalist. Labour have gone madly the other way.

    Really? I thought the surveys showed Labour voters where dispropotionately more for "Remain" and that Labour/Corbyn's pro-Brexit status was alienating the Labour vote.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,966
    Patrick said:

    Essexit said:

    Patrick said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    German sense of humour.
    https://twitter.com/BinsterUK/status/836198993029890053

    This is the funniest German joke ever - but don't seek to translate it if you want to survive!:
    Wenn ist das Nunstück git und Slotermeyer? Ja! Beiherhund das Oder die Flipperwaldt gersput!
    According to Google translate, the English is '[FATAL ERROR]'.

    I don't get it...
    It's the killing joke from Monty Python. Used as a weapon of mass destruction to overcome the Hun...

    10/10 to Google for playing along!
    Excellent - Google can always be counted on to have easter eggs for this sort of thing :)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,245
    Patrick said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    rcs1000 said:

    There are two sets of data out today that show all that is wrong with both the Eurozone and UK economies.

    In the Eurozone, everyone is celebrating that household loan growth has edged up to 2.2% year-over-year. Which is a decline in real terms, as GDP growth is 1.5% and inflation 2% (or so). In other words, Eurozone domestic demand remains too low.

    In the UK, we're seeing personal credit expand at around 10% per year, against nominal income growth of just under 4%.

    They need to spend more, and we need to take our foot off the gas.

    On the UK personal credit figures, do they include credit-card expenditure which is going to be paid in full when the credit-card bill arrives? If so, and if that is a significant part of the total figure, it's very misleading.
    That wouldn't affect the annual growth rate
    Surely if someone is doing their shopping with a credit card and then paying it off every month they're not falling into debt? If at any given balance sheet date X% of all credit card 'debt' is the as yet unpaid for this type of custmer it can give a somewhat misleading view to how indebted we are as a nation (very).
    I will dig out the exact numbers when I'm back in the office, but credit cards are under 10% of total household debt, and the proportion of people that pay off in full every month is going to be no more than half of that number, so I'd be surprised if it could have a meaningful impact on the numbers.
  • BojabobBojabob Posts: 642
    Beverley_C said:

    Dixie said:

    Indeed. It's because the EU puts Brits last. It's made WWC more nationalist. Labour have gone madly the other way.

    Really? I thought the surveys showed Labour voters where dispropotionately more for "Remain" and that Labour/Corbyn's pro-Brexit status was alienating the Labour vote.
    You are letting the facts get in the way of a good story there Beverley. Have you never met the PB Leavers??
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,492
    edited February 2017
    https://twitter.com/LondonerVince/status/836219096182231040
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    On that Air France crash:

    It's only by means of a trick that the captain can even reach Paris without going under the legally required minimum reserves of kerosene that must still be in the plane's tanks upon arrival in the French capital. A loophole allows him to enter Bordeaux -- which lies several hundred kilometers closer than Paris -- as the fictitious destination for his fuel calculations.

    http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/death-in-the-atlantic-the-last-four-minutes-of-air-france-flight-447-a-679980.html
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited February 2017
    rcs1000 said:

    That wouldn't affect the annual growth rate

    Yes, it would transfer that element of an increase in spending which is fully covered by money in the bank into the total 'household debt' figure.

    For example, if the credit-card spending of the Nabavi household is included, then we've 'borrowed' more than the figure for the same month a year ago. But the dosh is sitting in the bank and the bill will be cleared in full by direct debit, so it's not really relevant to the figures on household debt.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Great piece, Mr Brind. The comment on Cameron masking the collapse in working class support for Labour, and May's role in ripping the plaster off was particularly illuminating for me. Thanks.
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Awesome pun from the RSPCA

    https://twitter.com/ptr_yeung/status/836212947068284929

    We actually had a cat called Astrophe. What was weird was that whenever we had to take him to the vet we were always asked where we'd got the name from!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Theresa May reportedly plans to end rights given to EU nationals under freedom of movement rules when she triggers Article 50 next month, with a Government source claiming that otherwise “half of Romania and Bulgaria” might come to the UK before Brexit."

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-theresa-may-eu-citizens-live-in-uk-freedom-of-movement-european-union-a7601051.html
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    MTimT said:

    Great piece, Mr Brind. The comment on Cameron masking the collapse in working class support for Labour, and May's role in ripping the plaster off was particularly illuminating for me. Thanks.

    I've been making this point for ages to the 'the-coup-destroyed-Labour's-support' mob. It didn't. The crucial change that propelled the Tories into a huge lead was the change in the approval rating of the Con leader (itself brought about by a change in personnel). Cameron was polling dreadfully by the end. That Labour was behind against such poor scores told of the underlying weakness that would be laid bare if the Con leader's approval improved - as it did.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited February 2017
    CarlottaVance said:

    On that Air France crash:

    It's only by means of a trick that the captain can even reach Paris without going under the legally required minimum reserves of kerosene that must still be in the plane's tanks upon arrival in the French capital. A loophole allows him to enter Bordeaux -- which lies several hundred kilometers closer than Paris -- as the fictitious destination for his fuel calculations.

    http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/death-in-the-atlantic-the-last-four-minutes-of-air-france-flight-447-a-679980.html

    I've been interested in this air crash since it happened. The main mistake was the fact that the chief pilot decided to take a break just as the plane was about to enter a storm, handing control over to the most junior pilot. I didn't know about the fuel aspect though.

    Channel 4 documentary:

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=YJzg6W2f7Ng
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Bojabob said:

    Beverley_C said:

    Dixie said:

    Indeed. It's because the EU puts Brits last. It's made WWC more nationalist. Labour have gone madly the other way.

    Really? I thought the surveys showed Labour voters where dispropotionately more for "Remain" and that Labour/Corbyn's pro-Brexit status was alienating the Labour vote.
    You are letting the facts get in the way of a good story there Beverley. Have you never met the PB Leavers??
    I have never met ANYONE from PB. I nearly made it to one of the PB Manchester do's but real life intervened.... :D
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    CarlottaVance said:

    On that Air France crash:

    It's only by means of a trick that the captain can even reach Paris without going under the legally required minimum reserves of kerosene that must still be in the plane's tanks upon arrival in the French capital. A loophole allows him to enter Bordeaux -- which lies several hundred kilometers closer than Paris -- as the fictitious destination for his fuel calculations.

    http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/death-in-the-atlantic-the-last-four-minutes-of-air-france-flight-447-a-679980.html

    Well that is pure idiocy as the recent South American crash shows....
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Beverley_C said:

    Bojabob said:

    Beverley_C said:

    Dixie said:

    Indeed. It's because the EU puts Brits last. It's made WWC more nationalist. Labour have gone madly the other way.

    Really? I thought the surveys showed Labour voters where dispropotionately more for "Remain" and that Labour/Corbyn's pro-Brexit status was alienating the Labour vote.
    You are letting the facts get in the way of a good story there Beverley. Have you never met the PB Leavers??
    I have never met ANYONE from PB. I nearly made it to one of the PB Manchester do's but real life intervened.... :D
    How do you know you have never met someone from PB? We have people everywhere. There could be someone with you right now. They may be dressed as a cat.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    foxinsoxuk said:

    CD13 said:

    Roger,

    I know nothing about films - the last time I went to the pictures it was too see a new release called 'Boogie Nights' - but you've an enviable reputation for getting it right. In my total ignorance, I did toy with the idea of betting on the PC films this year after the furore last year.

    Would that have worked out?

    To an extent. I backed Midnight for best film, and The White Helmets for best short Doc, so came out at a modest profit. Tiddly stakes though, as always for Specials.
    Saw Arrival last night. Can see why it was not a strong Oscar contender. Two mildly interesting ideas about language and time wrapped in endless maudlin tedium.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    Beverley_C said:

    Dixie said:

    Indeed. It's because the EU puts Brits last. It's made WWC more nationalist. Labour have gone madly the other way.

    Really? I thought the surveys showed Labour voters where dispropotionately more for "Remain" and that Labour/Corbyn's pro-Brexit status was alienating the Labour vote.
    It's probably more likely alienating a certain section of the Labour middle-class vote, which will be where the Lab-LD swing has come from (note that the LDs have very low C2DE support).

    WWC (ex-)Lab is definitely pro-Brexit; it's where a lot of the UKIP vote has come from. Of course, by definition, once you strip out the UKIP switchers, what remains is likely to be more pro-Remain.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,619
    edited February 2017
    CarlottaVance said:

    On that Air France crash:

    It's only by means of a trick that the captain can even reach Paris without going under the legally required minimum reserves of kerosene that must still be in the plane's tanks upon arrival in the French capital. A loophole allows him to enter Bordeaux -- which lies several hundred kilometers closer than Paris -- as the fictitious destination for his fuel calculations.

    http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/death-in-the-atlantic-the-last-four-minutes-of-air-france-flight-447-a-679980.html

    Ah, the old "Aternate Destination" trick. It's not actually not too much of a problem in practice as somewhere like southern France has loads of runways, but it saves the airlines a fortune in fuel every year, albeit at the cost of an occasional diversion when the numbers don't work out.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Sandpit said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    On that Air France crash:

    It's only by means of a trick that the captain can even reach Paris without going under the legally required minimum reserves of kerosene that must still be in the plane's tanks upon arrival in the French capital. A loophole allows him to enter Bordeaux -- which lies several hundred kilometers closer than Paris -- as the fictitious destination for his fuel calculations.

    http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/death-in-the-atlantic-the-last-four-minutes-of-air-france-flight-447-a-679980.html

    Ah, the old "Aternate Destination" trick. It's not actually not too much of a problem in practice as somewhere like southern France has loads of runways, but it saves the airlines a fortune in fuel every year, albeit at the cost of an occasional diversion when the numbers don't work out.
    And as long as you do not get unexpected headwinds which reduce the cruising range...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,492
    MTimT said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    CD13 said:

    Roger,

    I know nothing about films - the last time I went to the pictures it was too see a new release called 'Boogie Nights' - but you've an enviable reputation for getting it right. In my total ignorance, I did toy with the idea of betting on the PC films this year after the furore last year.

    Would that have worked out?

    To an extent. I backed Midnight for best film, and The White Helmets for best short Doc, so came out at a modest profit. Tiddly stakes though, as always for Specials.
    Saw Arrival last night. Can see why it was not a strong Oscar contender. Two mildly interesting ideas about language and time wrapped in endless maudlin tedium.
    What? That has to be the most idiotic comment in the history of PB, and we've had people saying they like pineapple on pizzas.

    J'adore Arrival.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    david_herdson said:

    Beverley_C said:

    Dixie said:

    Indeed. It's because the EU puts Brits last. It's made WWC more nationalist. Labour have gone madly the other way.

    Really? I thought the surveys showed Labour voters where dispropotionately more for "Remain" and that Labour/Corbyn's pro-Brexit status was alienating the Labour vote.
    It's probably more likely alienating a certain section of the Labour middle-class vote, which will be where the Lab-LD swing has come from (note that the LDs have very low C2DE support).

    WWC (ex-)Lab is definitely pro-Brexit; it's where a lot of the UKIP vote has come from. Of course, by definition, once you strip out the UKIP switchers, what remains is likely to be more pro-Remain.
    A bit of a mess then... rather like Corbyn's Labour ;)

    Thank you for the clarification
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,619
    Beverley_C said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    On that Air France crash:

    It's only by means of a trick that the captain can even reach Paris without going under the legally required minimum reserves of kerosene that must still be in the plane's tanks upon arrival in the French capital. A loophole allows him to enter Bordeaux -- which lies several hundred kilometers closer than Paris -- as the fictitious destination for his fuel calculations.

    http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/death-in-the-atlantic-the-last-four-minutes-of-air-france-flight-447-a-679980.html

    Well that is pure idiocy as the recent South American crash shows....
    The recent one that killed the football team was gross negligence. That plane should never have been allowed to take off.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,718
    AndyJS said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    On that Air France crash:

    It's only by means of a trick that the captain can even reach Paris without going under the legally required minimum reserves of kerosene that must still be in the plane's tanks upon arrival in the French capital. A loophole allows him to enter Bordeaux -- which lies several hundred kilometers closer than Paris -- as the fictitious destination for his fuel calculations.

    http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/death-in-the-atlantic-the-last-four-minutes-of-air-france-flight-447-a-679980.html

    I've been interested in this air crash since it happened. The main mistake was the fact that the chief pilot decided to take a break just as the plane was about to enter a storm, handing control over to the most junior pilot. I didn't know about the fuel aspect though.

    Channel 4 documentary:

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=YJzg6W2f7Ng
    There are mistakes made during the flight. And then there may be the fons et origo mistake i.e. that the flight plan and the decision not to divert away from the storms were made to preserve fuel and save costs rather than for safety reasons.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    Political parties do not need working class MPs. That sounds like identity politics. What they need is COMPETENCE. Whether an MP is university educated or not, or from a council estate or a gated community in Surrey, it is surely more important to have the requisite communication skills, and the ability to articulate enormously complicated issues into common language. Tony Blair and Margaret Thatcher did that better than anyone else, and nobody would accuse those two of being 'working class', whatever that means. It just so happens that they are Oxbridge educated - an elite, if you will - but that is the purpose of elite education, like Eton. David Cameron didn't become party leader then PM because he had a chip on his shoulder due to his upbringing. We are so anti-intellectual in this country that a first class education is sneered at instead of being embraced, and someone's accent becomes a primary driver of their chances.

    If you believe a party needs to have more representatives because of how they look, or their gender, or sexuality, or a certain religion, or even where they were born, then what really matters - their ability - becomes redundant. I think that just about sums up the modern Left.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,619
    edited February 2017
    Beverley_C said:

    Sandpit said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    On that Air France crash:

    It's only by means of a trick that the captain can even reach Paris without going under the legally required minimum reserves of kerosene that must still be in the plane's tanks upon arrival in the French capital. A loophole allows him to enter Bordeaux -- which lies several hundred kilometers closer than Paris -- as the fictitious destination for his fuel calculations.

    http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/death-in-the-atlantic-the-last-four-minutes-of-air-france-flight-447-a-679980.html

    Ah, the old "Aternate Destination" trick. It's not actually not too much of a problem in practice as somewhere like southern France has loads of runways, but it saves the airlines a fortune in fuel every year, albeit at the cost of an occasional diversion when the numbers don't work out.
    And as long as you do not get unexpected headwinds which reduce the cruising range...
    Indeed, and that's the day they end up in Bordeaux instead of Paris!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,732
    Beverley_C said:

    Bojabob said:

    Beverley_C said:

    Dixie said:

    Indeed. It's because the EU puts Brits last. It's made WWC more nationalist. Labour have gone madly the other way.

    Really? I thought the surveys showed Labour voters where dispropotionately more for "Remain" and that Labour/Corbyn's pro-Brexit status was alienating the Labour vote.
    You are letting the facts get in the way of a good story there Beverley. Have you never met the PB Leavers??
    I have never met ANYONE from PB. I nearly made it to one of the PB Manchester do's but real life intervened.... :D
    I visited Altrincham in November :lol:
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    dixiedean said:

    david_herdson said:

    dixiedean said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Eliminating grammar schools has eliminated a working class leadership echelon for Labour. They killed the goose that laid the golden egg.

    Not grammar schools again. I'm 50 and there were no grammar schools for me. The PM is 60, and her grammar was made into a comprehensive. So how old does this leadership echelon have to be? There are plenty of people like Burnham who went to state schools. Most people under 55 have no idea what a grammar school is or was!
    Clearly you don't. A grammar school is a state school. (There are quite a few local authorities which still have grammars, as an aside, including some which are frequently Labour-run such as Calderdale).
    Vanishingly few. I repeat the vast majority of people under 55 have no idea what a grammar school was. And yes I know they were state schools.
    If you know they were state schools, why did you introduce 'state schools' into it?

    There look to be about 168 grammar schools in England, which is about 5.4% of the total. As grammars will be a minority even in areas where they operate, that probably equates to around a fifth of kids being educated in selective educational environments. A minority, to be sure, but hardly 'vanishingly few'.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,860
    Sandpit said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    On that Air France crash:

    It's only by means of a trick that the captain can even reach Paris without going under the legally required minimum reserves of kerosene that must still be in the plane's tanks upon arrival in the French capital. A loophole allows him to enter Bordeaux -- which lies several hundred kilometers closer than Paris -- as the fictitious destination for his fuel calculations.

    http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/death-in-the-atlantic-the-last-four-minutes-of-air-france-flight-447-a-679980.html

    Ah, the old "Aternate Destination" trick. It's not actually not too much of a problem in practice as somewhere like southern France has loads of runways, but it saves the airlines a fortune in fuel every year, albeit at the cost of an occasional diversion when the numbers don't work out.
    So they declare their destination as Bordeaux and their alternate as Paris, while intending all along to fly to Paris. That seems scarcely credible, though after Avianca Flight 52 who knows? Surely they'd have to give some reason for "diverting" from Bordeaux to Paris though?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Jason said:

    Political parties do not need working class MPs. That sounds like identity politics. What they need is COMPETENCE. Whether an MP is university educated or not, or from a council estate or a gated community in Surrey, it is surely more important to have the requisite communication skills, and the ability to articulate enormously complicated issues into common language. Tony Blair and Margaret Thatcher did that better than anyone else, and nobody would accuse those two of being 'working class', whatever that means. It just so happens that they are Oxbridge educated - an elite, if you will - but that is the purpose of elite education, like Eton. David Cameron didn't become party leader then PM because he had a chip on his shoulder due to his upbringing. We are so anti-intellectual in this country that a first class education is sneered at instead of being embraced, and someone's accent becomes a primary driver of their chances.

    If you believe a party needs to have more representatives because of how they look, or their gender, or sexuality, or a certain religion, or even where they were born, then what really matters - their ability - becomes redundant. I think that just about sums up the modern Left.

    Nah, "Competence" is subjective. We benefit from having a variety of experience and skills in Parliament. If some MPs can remember (rather than imagine) what it is like to be poor, I can't see how that is a bad thing.



  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    SeanT said:

    Beverley_C said:


    That sums up my view of the economics of Brexit. All that is missing is a Dunce's hat for the Fantasy Economics she keeps pushing .....

    Theuniondivvie said:

    German sense of humour.

    https://twitter.com/BinsterUK/status/836198993029890053

    The medium shock treasury forecasts (confessedly pessimistic) for the negative outcome of Brexit were a loss of about 3-5% GDP by 2025-2030. We can ignore their severe shock forecasts which predicted a decline of 6% in the first two years. Lol

    But let's say their medium forecasts are better. A loss of 5% GDP over 15 years is 0.3% a year. We will barely notice it. Yet lunatic Remainers like you think this equals "national economic suicide".

    Do you realise how insane you guys sound?
    ...and also money blinkered. A very significant part of the Leave vote was folks like me who simply refuse ever to join an EU superstate. I value my vote. I wish to be able to elect a different policy direction. This is not compatible with EU membership. Remainers never, ever, ever talk about the catastrophe to our democracy a vote to remain would have entailed...funny that...
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,732
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/LondonerVince/status/836219096182231040

    L'anglais est la meilleure langue du monde!
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,577
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MTimT said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    CD13 said:

    Roger,

    I know nothing about films - the last time I went to the pictures it was too see a new release called 'Boogie Nights' - but you've an enviable reputation for getting it right. In my total ignorance, I did toy with the idea of betting on the PC films this year after the furore last year.

    Would that have worked out?

    To an extent. I backed Midnight for best film, and The White Helmets for best short Doc, so came out at a modest profit. Tiddly stakes though, as always for Specials.
    Saw Arrival last night. Can see why it was not a strong Oscar contender. Two mildly interesting ideas about language and time wrapped in endless maudlin tedium.
    What? That has to be the most idiotic comment in the history of PB, and we've had people saying they like pineapple on pizzas.

    J'adore Arrival.
    Yep. Best film of 2016. Of course it takes intelligence to appreciate it which might be why some people found it difficult.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,619
    edited February 2017
    FeersumEnjineeya said:

    Sandpit said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    On that Air France crash:

    It's only by means of a trick that the captain can even reach Paris without going under the legally required minimum reserves of kerosene that must still be in the plane's tanks upon arrival in the French capital. A loophole allows him to enter Bordeaux -- which lies several hundred kilometers closer than Paris -- as the fictitious destination for his fuel calculations.

    http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/death-in-the-atlantic-the-last-four-minutes-of-air-france-flight-447-a-679980.html

    Ah, the old "Aternate Destination" trick. It's not actually not too much of a problem in practice as somewhere like southern France has loads of runways, but it saves the airlines a fortune in fuel every year, albeit at the cost of an occasional diversion when the numbers don't work out.
    So they declare their destination as Bordeaux and their alternate as Paris, while intending all along to fly to Paris. That seems scarcely credible, though after Avianca Flight 52 who knows? Surely they'd have to give some reason for "diverting" from Bordeaux to Paris though?
    Yes, they declare Bordeaux as the destination in the flight plan and Paris as the alternate, then when close to Bordeaux they have to decide whether to continue to Paris or land in Bordeaux. It saves several tons of fuel on a long flight, as the heavier aircraft burns more fuel. Occasionally they do end up in Bordeaux for a splash of fuel, but overall it saves airlines a fortune. All airlines do this, not just AF, and there are really strict rules about it. You'll be getting tea and biscuits with the chief pilot (with no tea and no biscuits) if you carry on when you should have landed.

    FPT I see you're studying for a PPL, good luck and Godspeed, as they say!
  • BojabobBojabob Posts: 642
    Beverley_C said:

    Bojabob said:

    Beverley_C said:

    Dixie said:

    Indeed. It's because the EU puts Brits last. It's made WWC more nationalist. Labour have gone madly the other way.

    Really? I thought the surveys showed Labour voters where dispropotionately more for "Remain" and that Labour/Corbyn's pro-Brexit status was alienating the Labour vote.
    You are letting the facts get in the way of a good story there Beverley. Have you never met the PB Leavers??
    I have never met ANYONE from PB. I nearly made it to one of the PB Manchester do's but real life intervened.... :D
    Yes, sorry, me neither. I mean 'met' in the internet forum sense, meaning exchanged views with an anonymous poster who may exist or who may not!
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