politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Deputy Speaker election is hard to call
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Mitchell = EnglandTheScreamingEagles said:
Police = Poland0 -
Tim Nothing much has changed, the next election still depends on the UKIP score, cut UKIP down to 5% and switch those voters to the Tories and switch 3% from Labour to the LDs and you get CON 40%, LAB 36%, LD 12%, UKIP 5%0
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Wednesday's secret ballot will take between 11.30 BST and 1400 BST, with the result being announced soon after.NickPalmer said:AndreaParma_82 said:If it had not been posted yet..here's who nominated who in the Deputy Speaker race...
Thanks Andrea. Clear edge by Laing and Streeter there in terms of heavyweight mainstream support. I'd think the Labour vote will go heavily to those two. When is the vote?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-245383450 -
Mitchell = Depeche ModeSunil_Prasannan said:
Police = Joe Dolce0 -
Avery, did you say the other day that you went to Marlborough?0
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I fancy the Old Etonian who is in remainder to an Irish Baronetcy.NickPalmer said:
Thanks Andrea. Clear edge by Laing and Streeter there in terms of heavyweight mainstream support. I'd think the Labour vote will go heavily to those two. When is the vote?AndreaParma_82 said:If it had not been posted yet..here's who nominated who in the Deputy Speaker race...
It is a sign of the times.
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I am an O.M.JonnyJimmy said:Avery, did you say the other day that you went to Marlborough?
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@Carlotta
I saw your post about Westminster Dog of the Year but I had to leave for work reasons for a couple of days....so I didn't have the chance to reply....was Rossindel and his patriotic dog in sight?0 -
Did you start learning your Russian with Miss Collison there?AveryLP said:0 -
"It’s really too bad somebody leaked this before he was ready to announce. Glenn Greenwald, the crusading blogger who came to international recognition this year for his part in the NSA leaks from Edward Snowden, is leaving his perch at the London-based Guardian. "
http://www.thedailybeast.com/cheats/2013/10/15/glenn-greenwald-leaving-guardian.html0 -
Oh no.JonnyJimmy said:
Did you start learning your Russian with Miss Collison there?AveryLP said:
I learnt my Russian from taxi drivers and tarts in Moscow.
I am not sure Russian was taught in my day: it was all Latin and Greek although some enterprising beak did try to introduce lessons in Business Studies.
The Business Studies bit was used to advertise the school as modern. My days date from when there was a real swimming pool.
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Don't know I'm afraid - this is all I saw:AndreaParma_82 said:@Carlotta
I saw your post about Westminster Dog of the Year but I had to leave for work reasons for a couple of days....so I didn't have the chance to reply....was Rossindel and his patriotic dog in sight?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-244784610 -
Are not business studies best studied in practical form, such as the sixth form card school, and black market tuck sales?AveryLP said:
Oh no.JonnyJimmy said:
Did you start learning your Russian with Miss Collison there?AveryLP said:
I learnt my Russian from taxi drivers and tarts in Moscow.
I am not sure Russian was taught in my day: it was all Latin and Greek although some enterprising beak did try to introduce lessons in Business Studies.
The Business Studies bit was used to advertise the school as modern. My days date from when there was a real swimming pool.0 -
I remember the real swimming pool! Freezing cold even in the middle of summer... How about John Osbourne for Latin? Or John Byrom for English? I don't want to ask what years you were there, seems inappropriate somehow.AveryLP said:
Oh no.JonnyJimmy said:
Did you start learning your Russian with Miss Collison there?AveryLP said:
I learnt my Russian from taxi drivers and tarts in Moscow.
I am not sure Russian was taught in my day: it was all Latin and Greek although some enterprising beak did try to introduce lessons in Business Studies.
The Business Studies bit was used to advertise the school as modern. My days date from when there was a real swimming pool.
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Are you going to be the third Old Marlburian to come out on PB, JJ?JonnyJimmy said:
Did you start learning your Russian with Miss Collison there?AveryLP said:
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I came out as one long ago! I've mentioned I went there but left for the local comp for 6th form to improve my chances of getting in to Oxford (crazy plan that worked). Who's the other one?AveryLP said:
Are you going to be the third Old Marlburian to come out on PB, JJ?JonnyJimmy said:
Did you start learning your Russian with Miss Collison there?AveryLP said:
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I have to say that I find Plebgate II, the sequel, truly astonishing. Members of the Police Federation, who IIRC were on the media day after day after day for about 3 weeks before Mitchell resigned have a meeting with him. Unbeknown to them the meeting is secretly recorded.
The complaint is made that they substantially and materially inaccurately report the content of the meeting. Complaints are made which various police officers investigate, supposedly under supervision. Many, many months later the police decide to clear the officers concerned and not to have any disciplinary proceedings. The Independent Police Investigation body says this is ridiculous.
It took the playing of a 10 second snippet from the secret recording on Drive to demonstrate that it was indeed ridiculous. And the main police response seems to be that the independent investigator was wrong to point this out.
Plebgate II does not involve criminal charges but it does involve highly disreputable and dishonest behaviour by elected representatives of the Police Federation. Was disciplining them really that frightening?
Quis custiodet ipsos custodes? We have a major problem here.0 -
Tuck was readily available and purchased from a shop and café outside the school gates called Kennedy's.foxinsoxuk said:Are not business studies best studied in practical form, such as the sixth form card school, and black market tuck sales?
AveryLP said:
Oh no.JonnyJimmy said:
Did you start learning your Russian with Miss Collison there?AveryLP said:
I learnt my Russian from taxi drivers and tarts in Moscow.
I am not sure Russian was taught in my day: it was all Latin and Greek although some enterprising beak did try to introduce lessons in Business Studies.
The Business Studies bit was used to advertise the school as modern. My days date from when there was a real swimming pool.
As for sixth form card schools they took place in the local pubs renamed to maintain subterfuge. For example the Turret and Testicle (with parents only) or when alone the Who'd A Thought It in Lockeridge.
[I note from google maps that Kennedy's has now become "G.Hatto Barbershops"]
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I learnt how to read Russian Cyrillic by looking at pictures showing the name-plates of Soviet warships in "Jane's All The World's Fighting Ships" back in the 80s (when I still at school!).0
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Patrick.JonnyJimmy said:
I came out as one long ago! I've mentioned I went there but left for the local comp for 6th form to improve my chances of getting in to Oxford (crazy plan that worked). Who's the other one?AveryLP said:
Are you going to be the third Old Marlburian to come out on PB, JJ?JonnyJimmy said:
Did you start learning your Russian with Miss Collison there?AveryLP said:
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It was a barber's when I was there, called Razor Bill's.AveryLP said:
Tuck was readily available and purchased from a shop and café outside the school gates called Kennedy's.foxinsoxuk said:Are not business studies best studied in practical form, such as the sixth form card school, and black market tuck sales?
AveryLP said:
Oh no.JonnyJimmy said:
Did you start learning your Russian with Miss Collison there?AveryLP said:
I learnt my Russian from taxi drivers and tarts in Moscow.
I am not sure Russian was taught in my day: it was all Latin and Greek although some enterprising beak did try to introduce lessons in Business Studies.
The Business Studies bit was used to advertise the school as modern. My days date from when there was a real swimming pool.
As for sixth form card schools they took place in the local pubs renamed to maintain subterfuge. For example the Turret and Testicle (with parents only) or when alone the Who'd A Thought It in Lockeridge.
[I note from google maps that Kennedy's has now become "G.Hatto Barbershops"]
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When I last saw him he told me that Spike was sadly no longer with us. I don't know if Spike has had a patriotic successor, though.CarlottaVance said:
Don't know I'm afraid - this is all I saw:AndreaParma_82 said:@Carlotta
I saw your post about Westminster Dog of the Year but I had to leave for work reasons for a couple of days....so I didn't have the chance to reply....was Rossindel and his patriotic dog in sight?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24478461
Andrew's a surprisingly varied chap, not really the one-dimensional dour right-winger of his image - e.g. he's probably the leading expert in Parliament on Iceland. We shared general Scandiphilia and liking for animals - one of those unlikely cross-party congenialities (if that's a word).
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I arrived during the (enlightened) Mastership of John Dancy and departed under Roger Ellis..JonnyJimmy said:
I remember the real swimming pool! Freezing cold even in the middle of summer... How about John Osbourne for Latin? Or John Byrom for English? I don't want to ask what years you were there, seems inappropriate somehow.AveryLP said:
Oh no.JonnyJimmy said:
Did you start learning your Russian with Miss Collison there?AveryLP said:
I learnt my Russian from taxi drivers and tarts in Moscow.
I am not sure Russian was taught in my day: it was all Latin and Greek although some enterprising beak did try to introduce lessons in Business Studies.
The Business Studies bit was used to advertise the school as modern. My days date from when there was a real swimming pool.
Sadly almost all the beaks/housemasters I encountered have died over the past three years although I believe Dancy is still going.
I was taught by Patrick's housemaster though, the inimitable Hugh Wheldon [sp??).
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DavidL said:
I have to say that I find Plebgate II, the sequel, truly astonishing. Members of the Police Federation, who IIRC were on the media day after day after day for about 3 weeks before Mitchell resigned have a meeting with him. Unbeknown to them the meeting is secretly recorded.
The complaint is made that they substantially and materially inaccurately report the content of the meeting. Complaints are made which various police officers investigate, supposedly under supervision. Many, many months later the police decide to clear the officers concerned and not to have any disciplinary proceedings. The Independent Police Investigation body says this is ridiculous.
It took the playing of a 10 second snippet from the secret recording on Drive to demonstrate that it was indeed ridiculous. And the main police response seems to be that the independent investigator was wrong to point this out.
Plebgate II does not involve criminal charges but it does involve highly disreputable and dishonest behaviour by elected representatives of the Police Federation. Was disciplining them really that frightening?
Quis custiodet ipsos custodes? We have a major problem here.
I cannot make out what the police are up to. The tape of the Mitchell meeting clearly showed that the three policeman who attended the meeting lied, yet today the West Mercia police issue a statement that they are shocked by the IPCCs findings and want a meeting with the Home secretary to discuss the matter. Are they mad? Any sane person hearing the tape of the meeting knows that the three policeman lied to try and stitch up Mitchell, yet the police are still defending them to the hilt and do not consider they have done anything wrong. What are they going to say at the select committee next week? Will there defence be Mitchell is a nasty tory so its ok that we tried to stitch him up? Its like someone who is caught on CCTV clearly stealing something issuing a statement that they are shocked that anyone could reach the conclusion they are stealing something and therefore have no case to answer.
Complete madness.
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Ah, a few years before my time; I was there after all the current leaders' wives too (went to the same prep school as Mrs Osborne I found out recently). Were you there at the same time as Hugh Pym?AveryLP said:
I arrived during the (enlightened) Mastership of John Dancy and departed under Roger Ellis..JonnyJimmy said:
I remember the real swimming pool! Freezing cold even in the middle of summer... How about John Osbourne for Latin? Or John Byrom for English? I don't want to ask what years you were there, seems inappropriate somehow.AveryLP said:
Oh no.JonnyJimmy said:
Did you start learning your Russian with Miss Collison there?AveryLP said:
I learnt my Russian from taxi drivers and tarts in Moscow.
I am not sure Russian was taught in my day: it was all Latin and Greek although some enterprising beak did try to introduce lessons in Business Studies.
The Business Studies bit was used to advertise the school as modern. My days date from when there was a real swimming pool.
Sadly almost all the beaks/housemasters I encountered have died over the past three years although I believe Dancy is still going.
I was taught by Patrick's housemaster though, the inimitable Hugh Wheldon [sp??).
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I mean by that Mrs Cameron, Mrs Osborne and Mrs Bercow if it wasn't clear.. Quite remarkable that the wives of the PM, chancellor and speaker all went to the same school.JonnyJimmy said:was there after all the current leaders' wives too
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How to price the IPO of a state owned company was taught at prep school, tim.tim said:
I think they learn by underpricing a privatisation twenty five years after they leave these placesfoxinsoxuk said:Are not business studies best studied in practical form, such as the sixth form card school, and black market tuck sales?
AveryLP said:
Oh no.JonnyJimmy said:
Did you start learning your Russian with Miss Collison there?AveryLP said:
I learnt my Russian from taxi drivers and tarts in Moscow.
I am not sure Russian was taught in my day: it was all Latin and Greek although some enterprising beak did try to introduce lessons in Business Studies.
The Business Studies bit was used to advertise the school as modern. My days date from when there was a real swimming pool.
The key points:
1. Set a price point at which the public can turn a quick profit. If they make a fast buck on the first issue they will come back for more when the discount can be eased.
2. Limit the shares available to the public to ensure the issue is oversubscribed by a massive multiple and prices are forced up in the markets immediately after flotation while the media are still watching. For oversubscribed IPOs all publicity, positive or negative, is good publicity.
3. Oversubscription and high initial market prices keeps the institutional investors happy and makes them feel good and clever for making more substantial purchases. The warmth added to by the prospect of a second offer which can be used to bolster the price if it starts flagging.
4. Enable the ONS to mark to market the residual shares held by the government thereby increasing the value of public sector assets and reducing net liabilities (i.e. public borrowing).
Success breeds success, tim. The discount earned in the initial flotation is now more likely to be paid back in the sale of the government's remaining holdings.
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I cannot remember him but judging from the fact he graduated from Oxford in 1981 the overlap would probably have been a single year at most.JonnyJimmy said:
Ah, a few years before my time; I was there after all the current leaders' wives too (went to the same prep school as Mrs Osborne I found out recently). Were you there at the same time as Hugh Pym?AveryLP said:
I arrived during the (enlightened) Mastership of John Dancy and departed under Roger Ellis..JonnyJimmy said:
I remember the real swimming pool! Freezing cold even in the middle of summer... How about John Osbourne for Latin? Or John Byrom for English? I don't want to ask what years you were there, seems inappropriate somehow.AveryLP said:
Oh no.JonnyJimmy said:
Did you start learning your Russian with Miss Collison there?AveryLP said:
I learnt my Russian from taxi drivers and tarts in Moscow.
I am not sure Russian was taught in my day: it was all Latin and Greek although some enterprising beak did try to introduce lessons in Business Studies.
The Business Studies bit was used to advertise the school as modern. My days date from when there was a real swimming pool.
Sadly almost all the beaks/housemasters I encountered have died over the past three years although I believe Dancy is still going.
I was taught by Patrick's housemaster though, the inimitable Hugh Wheldon [sp??).
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I'm on Burns for a bit also Mike. I think Tories want someone in there to irritate Bercow.0
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I'm sure there must be a good joke about Old Marlboro(ugh) and fags but I don't know it.
Perhaps the next Old Malburian to come out here can enlighten us?0 -
A bitterly fractured US Congress was still struggling to find an exit from the fiscal crisis gripping Washington with nervous markets shedding value and the White House standing firm against any significant tinkering with President Barack Obama’s healthcare law. A top credit agency put America’s credit rating on review.
... The back and forth led to new market nervousness about what the rest of the week will bring. After sliding slowly all day the Dow Jones industrial average in New York closed down 133 points or almost one per cent.
Meanwhile Fitch said it was pondering a downgrading of America’s triple A credit rating...
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/congress-still-struggling-to-find-a-way-to-end-us-shutdown-8881573.html0 -
Simon Burns was defending a Conservative majority of 378 in 1987 inherited from Norman St John Stevas. The Liberals were expecting to win the seat but Burns increased the Tory majority to 7,761 and to 18,260 in 1992.0
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Rep. Andy Harris, R-Md., said he remained skeptical that the deadline to extend the debt limit is Thursday. "I don't know what deadline is Thursday," he said, saying the date was "artificially created by the administration."
He said, "This didn't come down on tablets. It's not statute. It's not legislation."
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2013/10/15/house-republicans-boehner/2986085/
They really don't care, do they?
Equity markets are going to be fun tomorrow.0 -
How? Selling books?SeanT said:Tonight I made €10,000. Anyone beat that?
I made £25 on the result of the England match. It took me about 2 minutes to both choose and place the bets. So I made money at a rate of £750/hour or £18,000 per day.
Unfortunately the other 23 hours and 58 minutes of yesterday were not quite as profitable.
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Structured Product. Today happened to be the strike date. ;-)stjohn said:
Treated as capital gain, so amount just exactly on the CGT allowance, hence tax-free...0 -
My dad has published two well-received books but unfortunately the topic is so specialised that he only makes about £500 a year from them.0
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Dating game going great too (combination of PUA and very sneaky computer wizardry)
Nice Liverpool girl with good 'lungs' tomorrow
Brazilian firefly on Thursday, in love with the name Rodrigo and my deep, testosterone-filled voice (her words). I will have to blow out the Russian who thinks I'm seeing her that night...
Cheshire slut wants to do me on Friday. She has booked and paid for the hotel...
God bless the Internet...0 -
Just occurred to me that if everyone who's watched my YouTube videos had been paying 50p each time I'd be a millionaire. But it wouldn't be ethical because the content is mainly election shows from BBC/ITN/Sky.0
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Just make sure they don't sue your arse off, or you'll be a minus millionaire...AndyJS said:Just occurred to me that if everyone who's watched my YouTube videos had been paying 50p each time I'd be a millionaire. But it wouldn't be ethical because the content is mainly election shows from BBC/ITN/Sky.
;-)0 -
I admire your modesty, Rod!
Do you see any value in the betting markets? Is the recent tory swingback signal or noise?0 -
My bets are on the Tories winning the popular vote and a hung parliament.Pong said:I admire your modesty, Rod!
Do you see any value in the betting markets? Is the recent tory swingback signal or noise?
If things become clearer, I'll update everyone.
When's the October IPSOS Monitor out? It's late....
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Senior registrar: about 20% of civil marriages in London could be bogus:
http://news.sky.com/story/1155062/immigration-one-in-five-marriages-a-sham0 -
1) Get a job as a teacher at a posh school.AveryLP said:How to price the IPO of a state owned company was taught at prep school, tim.
The key points:
1. Set a price point at which the public can turn a quick profit. If they make a fast buck on the first issue they will come back for more when the discount can be eased.
2. Limit the shares available to the public to ensure the issue is oversubscribed by a massive multiple and prices are forced up in the markets immediately after flotation while the media are still watching. For oversubscribed IPOs all publicity, positive or negative, is good publicity.
3. Oversubscription and high initial market prices keeps the institutional investors happy and makes them feel good and clever for making more substantial purchases. The warmth added to by the prospect of a second offer which can be used to bolster the price if it starts flagging.
4. Enable the ONS to mark to market the residual shares held by the government thereby increasing the value of public sector assets and reducing net liabilities (i.e. public borrowing).
Success breeds success, tim. The discount earned in the initial flotation is now more likely to be paid back in the sale of the government's remaining holdings.
2) Tell the kids some barking bonkers crazy shit about how you should sell shares belonging to other people at giveaway prices.
3) Wait 40 years.
4) Apply for shares.
5) Profit!0 -
You beat me. I just 'sold' my one to the Frenchies for €6,000. A couple of friends had a slight pop at me y'day for spending two months abroad. They seemed to think I was holidaying when I was conducting research and writing. Sure beats 9-5 though.SeanT said:
I *sold* my new thriller - finished last Wednesday - to a French publisher. And they offered €10k today. However a new French publisher expressed overt interest this arvo, having heard about the book from a US scout.AndyJS said:
How did you do it? Or is that a boring question...SeanT said:Tonight I made €10,000. Anyone beat that?
So we may demur and ask the 1st guys for more. At the same time I fielded a convo from Penguin USA who are also V keen to buy.
Bewildering. Odd. Unsettling. OTOH it's much nicer than writing a book which everyone ignores.
Re. the Tim bet vs a 3-1 bet with Will Hill, to those who were deriding this y'day there are two points:
1. Betting against Tim I don't have to tie up the £20 for 19 months
2. It's the thought of beating Tim. £20 is worth it.0 -
The Sun newspaper really have produced another classic, probably not one in everyone's taste. Under the front page headline 'WE GOT A BRAZILIAN' is the sub-title 'It's a Close Shave but we Wax Poles'.
Oh Lord ...!0 -
Latest YouGov / The Sun results 15th October - Con 34%, Lab 39%, LD 9%, UKIP 11%; APP -260
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See the massive leap in Ed's ratings!Financier said:Latest YouGov / The Sun results 15th October - Con 34%, Lab 39%, LD 9%, UKIP 11%; APP -26
The Torees never dare call Ed "weak" again!
Ed bestrides Westminster as a strong charismatic natural leader!
Strong: 8 (+1)
Charismatic: 5 (-)
Natural Leader: 4 (-)
YouGov still has a problem with underweight young M/F - not as bad as yesterday - but still ~60% weighted base - and showing a 23 Labour lead in this demographic vs even yesterday.
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What has Brazil got to do with England and/or Poland?Ricardohos said:The Sun newspaper really have produced another classic, probably not one in everyone's taste. Under the front page headline 'WE GOT A BRAZILIAN' is the sub-title 'It's a Close Shave but we Wax Poles'.
Oh Lord ...!
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England qualified for the world cup finals in Brazil by beating Poland last night.
Some good performances too, particularly by relatively new players in the team. Shrek looked a better player than for some years too.
A quarter final team perhaps once more, but not good enough to win. Should add some entertainment to next summer.JohnLoony said:
What has Brazil got to do with England and/or Poland?Ricardohos said:The Sun newspaper really have produced another classic, probably not one in everyone's taste. Under the front page headline 'WE GOT A BRAZILIAN' is the sub-title 'It's a Close Shave but we Wax Poles'.
Oh Lord ...!0 -
I forgot to mention:
Scotland dinna qualify
This means Scottish players have the summer free to watch telly and debate the pros and cons of independence.foxinsoxuk said:England qualified for the world cup finals in Brazil by beating Poland last night.
Some good performances too, particularly by relatively new players in the team. Shrek looked a better player than for some years too.
A quarter final team perhaps once more, but not good enough to win. Should add some entertainment to next summer.JohnLoony said:
What has Brazil got to do with England and/or Poland?Ricardohos said:The Sun newspaper really have produced another classic, probably not one in everyone's taste. Under the front page headline 'WE GOT A BRAZILIAN' is the sub-title 'It's a Close Shave but we Wax Poles'.
Oh Lord ...!foxinsoxuk said:England qualified for the world cup finals in Brazil by beating Poland last night.
Some good performances too, particularly by relatively new players in the team. Shrek looked a better player than for some years too.
A quarter final team perhaps once more, but not good enough to win. Should add some entertainment to next summer.JohnLoony said:
What has Brazil got to do with England and/or Poland?Ricardohos said:The Sun newspaper really have produced another classic, probably not one in everyone's taste. Under the front page headline 'WE GOT A BRAZILIAN' is the sub-title 'It's a Close Shave but we Wax Poles'.
Oh Lord ...!0 -
On Tread
If the deputy Speaker is elected by MP's, can the Speaker sack them if he doesn't like them?0 -
LOLRicardohos said:
The Sun newspaper really have produced another classic, probably not one in everyone's taste. Under the front page headline 'WE GOT A BRAZILIAN' is the sub-title 'It's a Close Shave but we Wax Poles'.
Oh Lord ...!0 -
The sheer lunacy of the Republicans in the House is truly a thing to behold. As well as being a wonderful advertisement for FPTP. The world economy is on the edge of catastrophe thanks to the actions of a party that won a majority despite losing the popular vote. Great stuff!0
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Just checked out the comments under the Plebgate article in the Times - 254 comments - I think I've counted 5 or 6 that are either Meh or trying to maintain Mitchell is guilty because he's a Tory.
The rest are very critical - and rightly so, I can't decide if Plebgate I is worse than the handling of Plebgate II in terms of a scandal for the police.
Hugh Orde is on Today at 08100 -
Tim, I'm not putting £200 at Evens on that 19 months out. That's one where I'd definitely be better off placing a £70 @ 3/1 thanks. The £20 stake is a bit of light-hearted fun to challenge you, not what I'd call serious betting.0
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They are patriots who hate their country and huge numbers of the people who live in it. You'd like to think there'd be a reckoning at some stage, but they have endured that the districts are so gerrymandered they are largely untouchable.tim said:
The Tea Party loons don't give a toss about the Republican Party though, a bunch of Derek Hattons and Dan Hannans playing to a 20% base they feel comfortable with, collateral damage is inevitable, even desirable to some of them.SouthamObserver said:The sheer lunacy of the Republicans in the House is truly a thing to behold. As well as being a wonderful advertisement for FPTP. The world economy is on the edge of catastrophe thanks to the actions of a party that won a majority despite losing the popular vote. Great stuff!
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