Yet this is where I see some hope for Labour. Corbyn has not attempted to parachute in his Londoncentric acolytes into Northern safeseats. Both Snell and Troughton were local people picked by local parties.
If this policy continues, the PLP will become one representing the provinces much more than the Metropolis.
IF... we shall see...
(1) We've not had boundary reform necessitating mass reselections yet.
(2) If the Corbyn wing are able to get the handful of additional votes they need for a majority on the NEC then they can change the nomination rules for the succession, so no significant degree of support will be needed in the PLP to nominate a Far Left replacement for Corbyn.
(3) If it goes into a General Election under current management, Labour could be so badly mauled that its Parliamentary forces would be reduced to a rump. This would promote radicalism firstly because parties have an unwelcome tendency to believe that they lost the last election because they weren't extreme enough; secondly through the departure of more moderate party members (those most likely to want to get the party back into Government) in despair; thirdly because victory will seem a more remote prospect than ever to the survivors, which will tempt them to give up on any notion of compromise with ungrateful voters and enjoy being true to themselves; and fourthly because the surviving MPs will be drawn disproportionately from inner city strongholds, which are more likely to be represented by regressive leftists or obsessed Continuity Remainers.
Scotland + SE England + SW England + Eastern England = c.260 seats. Labour currently holds 13 of them. Not moving in the appropriate direction to make gains.
Looked at more positively they don't have a lot to lose in these areas. If they do better in the Cities (and there is some indications of that, particularly in London) the damage might not be quite as severe as it really ought to be. I think getting rid of Labour and growing a replacement opposition is going to prove much more difficult than some seem to be assuming.
They should be worried about Wales and the North East, which have seen huge falls in Labour support, having been Labour strongholds. Wales has reached a tipping point, where the Tories are close to overhauling Labour. The North East could reach that tipping point in 10 years' time.
I think at the next election it is the east and west midlands that they will need to worry about. They have a lot more to lose there.
East and West Midlands are a bit like Ohio, going from ultra-marginal to quite firmly Right.
Some parts, like Nuneaton and Kettering, others like Warwick and Leamington and Broxtowe are still pretty marginal
Can a 5,000 and a 4,200 majority be still considered marginal? Pre 2015 they were marginal. They might be again, but they're not at the moment.
What Labour needs to do is have a plan to win again in Loughborough. I cannot see it yet.
She's asking the right questions though: "With five times more members in Islington than a town like Wigan, there is a risk that Labour’s perspective will be skewed away from the needs and aspirations of people in towns across the country."
Aren't there more Lab members in London than the rest of the country put together? Ivstr reading this somewhere.
Though remember, while the party in London and suburbs is bigger than the rUK Labour party, the rUK Labour party is still bigger than Tories and kippers in the whole UK. rUK Labour is still a big party.
Which is precisely why I am not so confident as many Tories are about the next election.
Soon Labour will have almost as many members as voters, though its membership has started to dip a little after Corbyn backed Article 50
My weathervane luvvy mate Corbynista has quietened down very much since that. Thank heavens for small mercies.
Scotland + SE England + SW England + Eastern England = c.260 seats. Labour currently holds 13 of them. Not moving in the appropriate direction to make gains.
Looked at more positively they don't have a lot to lose in these areas. If they do better in the Cities (and there is some indications of that, particularly in London) the damage might not be quite as severe as it really ought to be. I think getting rid of Labour and growing a replacement opposition is going to prove much more difficult than some seem to be assuming.
They should be worried about Wales and the North East, which have seen huge falls in Labour support, having been Labour strongholds. Wales has reached a tipping point, where the Tories are close to overhauling Labour. The North East could reach that tipping point in 10 years' time.
I think at the next election it is the east and west midlands that they will need to worry about. They have a lot more to lose there.
East and West Midlands are a bit like Ohio, going from ultra-marginal to quite firmly Right.
Some parts, like Nuneaton and Kettering, others like Warwick and Leamington and Broxtowe are still pretty marginal
Based on the 2015 result. As for next time, well...
What Labour needs to do is have a plan to win again in Loughborough. I cannot see it yet.
She's asking the right questions though: "With five times more members in Islington than a town like Wigan, there is a risk that Labour’s perspective will be skewed away from the needs and aspirations of people in towns across the country."
Aren't there more Lab members in London than the rest of the country put together? Ivstr reading this somewhere.
Though remember, while the party in London and suburbs is bigger than the rUK Labour party, the rUK Labour party is still bigger than Tories and kippers in the whole UK. rUK Labour is still a big party.
Which is precisely why I am not so confident as many Tories are about the next election.
Soon Labour will have almost as many members as voters, though its membership has started to dip a little after Corbyn backed Article 50
My weathervane luvvy mate Corbynista has quietened down very much since that. Thank heavens for small mercies.
I suspect when the history books are written this will be the moment the scales fell from the Corbyn worshipers. Although I have no idea why - Corbyn is a Bennite and Benn famously campaigned to get out of EU/EC.
I did warn them, I wrote this back in September 2015.
Were David Cameron to campaign for Remain and Leave won then that would almost certainly trigger his immediate resignation/removal as Conservative Party leader and thus First Lord of the Treasury, so the fate of the Prime Minister could well be in Mr Corbyn’s hands. Over to you Mr Corbyn.
Yesterday’s ICM poll gave Remain a 4% lead when you add in the potential for a very disunited Labour party on the EU referendum, Remain supporters should be very nervous about the outcome.
The best odds on Leave winning are 3/1 with Paddy Power.
What Labour needs to do is have a plan to win again in Loughborough. I cannot see it yet.
She's asking the right questions though: "With five times more members in Islington than a town like Wigan, there is a risk that Labour’s perspective will be skewed away from the needs and aspirations of people in towns across the country."
Aren't there more Lab members in London than the rest of the country put together? Ivstr reading this somewhere.
...
... Anyway, the point is - of course - that Labour's priorities are driven by the majority in the London & Home Counties wing of the party, who promulgate an agenda focused on human rights activism and niche foreign policy issues, and who are far more interested in filling in online petitions and feeling self-righteous than they are in the slog of trying to get into Government.
And why would these people want a Labour Government? Firstly this would
Labour is now a campaign movement for a small minority of enraged left-liberals, with an ailing political party bolted on one side. This may change, but I wouldn't put any money on it.
Yet this is where I see
If this policy continues, the PLP will become one representing the provinces much more than the Metropolis.
If this policy continues then the candidates will be diverse; but in a Corbyn continues the PLP will be very metropolitan. They'll be trounced by Tories in the provinces.
That is the opposite of what I think. The new MPs, and those chosen by local parties at reselection will be chosen by non-metropolitan members, and as SO points out the majority of those are old school Labour. Snell is a bit of a loose cannon, but Troughton is no flighty metropolitan. Of course a policy of localism carries risk of major talent being overlooked, but I think that risk is low.
Not sure you're understanding me Dr Fox. In a general election campaign, when the media focus is on leaders at Westminster, voters won't care as much about local candidates as they might in by elections. In the provinces Labour will lose to Tories, big time - because Corbyn scares the horses.
I understand but disagree. For example, which of the 3 Leicester seats held by Labour would you expect to be lost?
Scotland + SE England + SW England + Eastern England = c.260 seats. Labour currently holds 13 of them. Not moving in the appropriate direction to make gains.
Looked at more positively they don't have a lot to lose in these areas. If they do better in the Cities (and there is some indications of that, particularly in London) the damage might not be quite as severe as it really ought to be. I think getting rid of Labour and growing a replacement opposition is going to prove much more difficult than some seem to be assuming.
They should be worried about Wales and the North East, which have seen huge falls in Labour support, having been Labour strongholds. Wales has reached a tipping point, where the Tories are close to overhauling Labour. The North East could reach that tipping point in 10 years' time.
I think at the next election it is the east and west midlands that they will need to worry about. They have a lot more to lose there.
East and West Midlands are a bit like Ohio, going from ultra-marginal to quite firmly Right.
Some parts, like Nuneaton and Kettering, others like Warwick and Leamington and Broxtowe are still pretty marginal
Can a 5,000 and a 4,200 majority be still considered marginal? Pre 2015 they were marginal. They might be again, but they're not at the moment.
I campaigned in Warwick and Leamington in 2001 when it had a 5,000 Labour majority so I would say both are still marginal yes
Twitter Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 2h2 hours ago Lab sources: "everybody" who broke whip- including 3 whips themselves - hv been sent disciplinary letter from Chief Whip over Article50 vote
Gosh, a disciplinary letter – that’s telling them…
Twitter Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 2h2 hours ago Lab sources: "everybody" who broke whip- including 3 whips themselves - hv been sent disciplinary letter from Chief Whip over Article50 vote
Gosh, a disciplinary letter – that’s telling them…
It doesn't sound like there was any particular rush to dispatch these letters after the vote...
there used to be a popular comment along the lines of whether or not you would want a chap beside you in the trenches. Most Remainers would very clearly fail that test.
On the contrary.
Ask Boris how happy he was in a trench with Gove?
Nuttal with Farage?
Any EU citizen with Gisela Stuart?
At least they stepped up to the plate rather than crying and wailing about how horrible it all is. Post Brexit Remainers really are the biggest bunch of whining maggots. You couldn't be arsed to actually do anything before the vote and now you sit around all day moaning about how horrible it is all going to be if only we wait long enough. Not a single spine between the lot of you.
What Labour needs to do is have a plan to win again in Loughborough. I cannot see it yet.
She's asking the right questions though: "With five times more members in Islington than a town like Wigan, there is a risk that Labour’s perspective will be skewed away from the needs and aspirations of people in towns across the country."
Aren't there more Lab members in London than the rest of the country put together? Ivstr reading this somewhere.
...
... ...
And why would these people want a Labour Government? Firstly this would
Labour is now a campaign movement for a small minority of enraged left-liberals, with an ailing political party bolted on one side. This may change, but I wouldn't put any money on it.
Yet this is where I see
If this policy continues, the PLP will become one representing the provinces much more than the Metropolis.
If this policy continues then the candidates will be diverse; but in a Corbyn continues the PLP will be very metropolitan. They'll be trounced by Tories in the provinces.
That is the opposite of what I think. The new MPs, and those chosen by local parties at reselection will be chosen by non-metropolitan members, and as SO points out the majority of those are old school Labour. Snell is a bit of a loose cannon, but Troughton is no flighty metropolitan. Of course a policy of localism carries risk of major talent being overlooked, but I think that risk is low.
Not sure you're understanding me Dr Fox. In a general election campaign, when the media focus is on leaders at Westminster, voters won't care as much about local candidates as they might in by elections. In the provinces Labour will lose to Tories, big time - because Corbyn scares the horses.
I understand but disagree. For example, which of the 3 Leicester seats held by Labour would you expect to be lost?
Likely not Leicester seats, but perhaps two Coventry seats...
There is Brexit role for Remainers, which is to help produce an outcome which is worse than what we had before, but better than it would otherwise be. The problem is that Remainers don't see why they should deal with problems that they think others caused; while Leavers don't accept the consequences of their earlier decision and are therefore incapable of dealing with those consequences.
We will deal with the consequences as and when they appear rather than sitting around claiming the sky is falling when it quite clearly is not.
Many years ago when such things were still fresh in people's minds, there used to be a popular comment along the lines of whether or not you would want a chap beside you in the trenches. Most Remainers would very clearly fail that test.
That's hardly a recipe for Brexit success. Particularly when Leavers refuse to accept they started the war.
What Labour needs to do is have a plan to win again in Loughborough. I cannot see it yet.
She's asking the right questions though: "With five times more members in Islington than a town like Wigan, there is a risk that Labour’s perspective will be skewed away from the needs and aspirations of people in towns across the country."
Aren't there more Lab members in London than the rest of the country put together? Ivstr reading this somewhere.
Though remember, while the party in London and suburbs is bigger than the rUK Labour party, the rUK Labour party is still bigger than Tories and kippers in the whole UK. rUK Labour is still a big party.
... Anyway,
And why would these people want a Labour Government? Firstly this would
Labour is now a campaign movement for a small minority of enraged left-liberals, with an ailing political party bolted on one side. This may change, but I wouldn't put any money on it.
Yet this is where I see some hope for Labour. Corbyn has not attempted to parachute in his Londoncentric acolytes into Northern safeseats. Both Snell and Troughton were local people picked by local parties.
If this policy continues, the PLP will become one representing the provinces much more than the Metropolis.
If this policy continues then the candidates will be diverse; but in a Corbyn continues the PLP will be very metropolitan. They'll be trounced by Tories in the provinces.
That is the opposite of what I think. The new MPs, and those chosen by
Troughton is probably going to lose on Thursday, though she is at least giving the Tories a figh, local candidates at parliamentary level only add about 500-1000 votes at best beyond the national poll rating
I agree that UNS is the biggest determinant, but post an election most of the MPs will be non Londoners chosen by Non Londoners. The PLP will look different, and not Corbynite different.
In effect a Constituency Member in Wigan will have 10 times the voting effect of one in Islington.
There is Brexit role for Remainers, which is to help produce an outcome which is worse than what we had before, but better than it would otherwise be. The problem is that Remainers don't see why they should deal with problems that they think others caused; while Leavers don't accept the consequences of their earlier decision and are therefore incapable of dealing with those consequences.
We will deal with the consequences as and when they appear rather than sitting around claiming the sky is falling when it quite clearly is not.
Many years ago when such things were still fresh in people's minds, there used to be a popular comment along the lines of whether or not you would want a chap beside you in the trenches. Most Remainers would very clearly fail that test.
That's hardly a recipe for Brexit success. Particularly when Leavers refuse to accept they were the ones that started the war.
When the war actually starts we will see how to deal with it. Until then the pointless whining just keeps everyone else awake.
What Labour needs to do is have a plan to win again in Loughborough. I cannot see it yet.
She's asking the right questions though: "With five times more members in Islington than a town like Wigan, there is a risk that Labour’s perspective will be skewed away from the needs and aspirations of people in towns across the country."
Aren't there more Lab members in London than the rest of the country put together? Ivstr reading this somewhere.
Though remember, while the party in London and suburbs is bigger than the rUK Labour party, the rUK Labour party is still bigger than Tories and kippers in the whole UK. rUK Labour is still a big party.
... Anyway,
And why would these people want a Labour Government? Firstly this would
Labour is now a campaign movement for a small minority of enraged left-liberals, with an ailing political party bolted on one side. This may change, but I wouldn't put any money on it.
Yet this is where I see some hope for Labour. Corbyn has not attempted to parachute in his Londoncentric acolytes into Northern safeseats. Both Snell and Troughton were local people picked by local parties.
If this policy continues, the PLP will become one representing the provinces much more than the Metropolis.
If this policy continues then the candidates will be diverse; but in a Corbyn continues the PLP will be very metropolitan. They'll be trounced by Tories in the provinces.
That is the opposite of what I think. The new MPs, and those chosen by
Troughton is probably going to lose on Thursday, though she is at least giving the Tories a figh, local candidates at parliamentary level only add about 500-1000 votes at best beyond the national poll rating
I agree that UNS is the biggest determinant, but post an election most of the MPs will be non Londoners chosen by Non Londoners. The PLP will look different, and not Corbynite different.
In effect a Constituency Member in Wigan will have 10 times the voting effect of one in Islington.
What Labour needs to do is have a plan to win again in Loughborough. I cannot see it yet.
She's asking the right questions though: "With five times more members in Islington than a town like Wigan, there is a risk that Labour’s perspective will be skewed away from the needs and aspirations of people in towns across the country."
Aren't there more Lab members in London than the rest of the country put together? Ivstr reading this somewhere.
...
... ...
And why would these people want a Labour Government? Firstly this would
Labour is now a campaign movement for a small minority of enraged left-liberals, with an ailing political party bolted on one side. This may change, but I wouldn't put any money on it.
Yet this is where I see
If this policy continues, the PLP will become one representing the provinces much more than the Metropolis.
If this policy continues then the candidates will be diverse; but in a Corbyn continues the PLP will be very metropolitan. They'll be trounced by Tories in the provinces.
That is the opposite of what I think. The new MPs, and those chosen by local parties at reselection will be chosen by non-metropolitan members, and as SO points out the majority of those are old school Labour. Snell is a bit of a loose cannon, but Troughton is no flighty metropolitan. Of course a policy of localism carries risk of major talent being overlooked, but I think that risk is low.
Not sure you're understanding me Dr Fox. In a general election campaign, when the media focus is on leaders at Westminster, voters won't care as much about local candidates as they might in by elections. In the provinces Labour will lose to Tories, big time - because Corbyn scares the horses.
I understand but disagree. For example, which of the 3 Leicester seats held by Labour would you expect to be lost?
Likely not Leicester seats, but perhaps two Coventry seats...
Cov South looks to be a penalty kick to me with Corbyn in charge at a GE.
Scotland + SE England + SW England + Eastern England = c.260 seats. Labour currently holds 13 of them. Not moving in the appropriate direction to make gains.
Looked at more positively they don't have a lot to lose in these areas. If they do better in the Cities (and there is some indications of that, particularly in London) the damage might not be quite as severe as it really ought to be. I think getting rid of Labour and growing a replacement opposition is going to prove much more difficult than some seem to be assuming.
They should be worried about Wales and the North East, which have seen huge falls in Labour support, having been Labour strongholds. Wales has reached a tipping point, where the Tories are close to overhauling Labour. The North East could reach that tipping point in 10 years' time.
Certainly while Labour remains dominated by the hard left and the Tories keep an anti immigration agenda that is the case especially in rural and market towns in Wales and the North East but at the same time London and the big cities of the North West like Liverpool and Manchester will become more strongly Labour and the LDs will also start to make further progress in the South East
Given the current polling position, and assuming the implementation of boundary change, the Conservatives may be close to parity with Labour in Wales post-2020. Of course, if there's an early election based on the current boundaries then Labour should be able to hold onto the bulk of its under-sized constituencies in the South and North-East of Wales.
Labour's grip on most of inner London, Birmingham, Liverpool and Manchester will ultimately be useless to it if it is failing to make gains anywhere else, and in outright retreat in dozens of marginals around the fringes of the major conurbations. It could end up with enough safe seats to render itself extremely hard to dislodge as the main Opposition, yet simultaneously appeal to such a narrow range of voters that it might struggle ever to return to Government. This is very dangerous for the country: Labour could simply sit there uselessly for a decade or more, stifling the birth of a successor whilst the Conservatives are left to do what they like.
The Liberal Democrats have effectively remodelled themselves as a single issue Europhile campaign group, a fact reflected in the difficulty they are having even in overtaking Ukip for third place in national VI polling. As things stand they are most unlikely to make a significant impact at the next General Election, except perhaps in helping to facilitate a Conservative landslide by stealing Labour votes in some marginal seats.
What Labour needs to do is have a plan to win again in Loughborough. I cannot see it yet.
She's asking the right questions though: "With five times more members in Islington than a town like Wigan, there is a risk that Labour’s perspective will be skewed away from the needs and aspirations of people in towns across the country."
Aren't there more Lab members in London than the rest of the country put together? Ivstr reading this somewhere.
Though remember, while the party in London and suburbs is bigger than the rUK Labour party, the rUK Labour party is still bigger than Tories and kippers in the whole UK. rUK Labour is still a big party.
... Anyway,
And why would these people want a Labour Government? Firstly this would
Labour is now a campaign movement for a small minority of enraged left-liberals, with an ailing political party bolted on one side. This may change, but I wouldn't put any money on it.
Yet this is where I see some hope for Labour. Corbyn has not attempted to parachute in his Londoncentric acolytes into Northern safeseats. Both Snell and Troughton were local people picked by local parties.
If this policy continues, the PLP will become one representing the provinces much more than the Metropolis.
If this policy continues then the candidates will be diverse; but in a Corbyn continues the PLP will be very metropolitan. They'll be trounced by Tories in the provinces.
That is the opposite of what I think. The new MPs, and those chosen by
Troughton is probably going to lose on Thursday, though she is at least giving the Tories a figh, local candidates at parliamentary level only add about 500-1000 votes at best beyond the national poll rating
I agree that UNS is the biggest determinant, but post an election most of the MPs will be non Londoners chosen by Non Londoners. The PLP will look different, and not Corbynite different.
In effect a Constituency Member in Wigan will have 10 times the voting effect of one in Islington.
Provided Labour hold Wigan of course!
Labour have a 31% majority there. They will hold it.
Scotland + SE England + SW England + Eastern England = c.260 seats. Labour currently holds 13 of them. Not moving in the appropriate direction to make gains.
Looked at more positively they don't have a lot to lose in these areas. If they do better in the Cities (and there is some indications of that, particularly in London) the damage might not be quite as severe as it really ought to be. I think getting rid of Labour and growing a replacement opposition is going to prove much more difficult than some seem to be assuming.
They should be worried about Wales and the North East, which have seen huge falls in Labour support, having been Labour strongholds. Wales has reached a tipping point, where the Tories are close to overhauling Labour. The North East could reach that tipping point in 10 years' time.
I think at the next election it is the east and west midlands that they will need to worry about. They have a lot more to lose there.
The north too. Plenty of Brexity marginals / targets in the North West and Yorkshire.
In fact, it's everywhere except London (where they're doing ok) and the south and Scotland (where they've hardly any MPs to lose).
Scotland + SE England + SW England + Eastern England = c.260 seats. Labour currently holds 13 of them. Not moving in the appropriate direction to make gains.
Looked at more positively they don't have a lot to lose in these areas. If they do better in the Cities (and there is some indications of that, particularly in London) the damage might not be quite as severe as it really ought to be. I think getting rid of Labour and growing a replacement opposition is going to prove much more difficult than some seem to be assuming.
They should be worried about Wales and the North East, which have seen huge falls in Labour support, having been Labour strongholds. Wales has reached a tipping point, where the Tories are close to overhauling Labour. The North East could reach that tipping point in 10 years' time.
Certainly while Labour remains dominated East
Given the current polling position, and assuming the implementation of boundary change, the Conservatives may be close to parity with Labour in Wales post-2020. Of course, if there's an early election based on the current boundaries then Labour should be able to hold onto the bulk of its under-sized constituencies in the South and North-East of Wales.
Labour's grip on most of inner London, Birmingham, Liverpool and Manchester will ultimately be useless to it if it is failing to make gains anywhere else, and in outright retreat in dozens of marginals around the fringes of the major conurbations. It could end up with enough safe seats to render itself extremely hard to dislodge as the main Opposition, yet simultaneously appeal to such a narrow range of voters that it might struggle ever to return to Government. This is very dangerous for the country: Labour could simply sit there uselessly for a decade or more, stifling the birth of a successor whilst the Conservatives are left to do what they like.
The Liberal Democrats have effectively remodelled themselves as a single issue Europhile campaign group, a fact reflected in the difficulty they are having even in overtaking Ukip for third place in national VI polling. As things stand they are most unlikely to make a significant impact at the next General Election, except perhaps in helping to facilitate a Conservative landslide by stealing Labour votes in some marginal seats.
I expect the LDs to be competitive over a large section of Southern, South Western suburban and rural England and Wales, while Labour has over 150 rock solid urban seats. They will be competitive in different geographies.
What Labour needs to do is have a plan to win again in Loughborough. I cannot see it yet.
She's asking the right questions though: "With five times more members in Islington than a town like Wigan, there is a risk that Labour’s perspective will be skewed away from the needs and aspirations of people in towns across the country."
Aren't there more Lab members in London than the rest of the country put together? Ivstr reading this somewhere.
Though remember, while the party in London and suburbs is bigger than the rUK Labour party, the rUK Labour party is still bigger than Tories and kippers in the whole UK. rUK Labour is still a big party.
... Anyway,
And why would these people want a Labour Government? Firstly this would
Labour is now a campaign movement for a small minority of enraged left-liberals, with an ailing political party bolted on one side. This may change, but I wouldn't put any money on it.
Yet this is where I see some hope for Labour. Corbyn has not attempted to parachute in his Londoncentric acolytes into Northern safeseats. Both Snell and Troughton were local people picked by .
If this policy continues then the candidates will be diverse; but in a Corbyn continues the PLP will be very metropolitan. They'll be trounced by Tories in the provinces.
That is the opposite of what I think. The new MPs, and those chosen by
Troughton is probably going to lose on Thursday, though she is at least giving the Tories a figh, local candidates at parliamentary level only add about 500-1000 votes at best beyond the national poll rating
I agree that UNS is the biggest determinant, but post an election most of the MPs will be non Londoners chosen by Non Londoners. The PLP will look different, and not Corbynite different.
In effect a Constituency Member in Wigan will have 10 times the voting effect of one in Islington.
Provided Labour hold Wigan of course!
Labour have a 31% majority there. They will hold it.
There would be a few jitters though if Labour lose Stoke
Twitter Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 2h2 hours ago Lab sources: "everybody" who broke whip- including 3 whips themselves - hv been sent disciplinary letter from Chief Whip over Article50 vote
Gosh, a disciplinary letter – that’s telling them…
Whatever next? Send for super nanny & sent to the naughty step?
What Labour needs to do is have a plan to win again in Loughborough. I cannot see it yet.
She's asking the right questions though: "With five times more members in Islington than a town like Wigan, there is a risk that Labour’s perspective will be skewed away from the needs and aspirations of people in towns across the country."
Aren't there more Lab members in London than the rest of the country put together? Ivstr reading this somewhere.
Though remember, while the party in London and suburbs is bigger than the rUK Labour party, the rUK Labour party is still bigger than Tories and kippers in the whole UK. rUK Labour is still a big party.
... Anyway,
And why would these people want a Labour Government? Firstly this would
Labour is now a campaign movement for a small minority of enraged left-liberals, with an ailing political party bolted on one side. This may change, but I wouldn't put any money on it.
Yet this is where I see some hope for Labour. Corbyn has not attempted to parachute in his Londoncentric acolytes into Northern safeseats. Both Snell and Troughton were local people picked by .
If this policy continues then the candidates will be diverse; but in a Corbyn continues the PLP will be very metropolitan. They'll be trounced by Tories in the provinces.
That is the opposite of what I think. The new MPs, and those chosen by
Troughton is probably going to lose on Thursday, though she is at least giving the Tories a figh, local candidates at parliamentary level only add about 500-1000 votes at best beyond the national poll rating
I agree that UNS is the biggest determinant, but post an election most of the MPs will be non Londoners chosen by Non Londoners. The PLP will look different, and not Corbynite different.
In effect a Constituency Member in Wigan will have 10 times the voting effect of one in Islington.
Provided Labour hold Wigan of course!
Labour have a 31% majority there. They will hold it.
There would be a few jitters though if Labour lose Stoke
Scotland + SE England + SW England + Eastern England = c.260 seats. Labour currently holds 13 of them. Not moving in the appropriate direction to make gains.
Looked at more positively they don't have a lot to lose in these areas. If they do better in the Cities (and there is some indications of that, particularly in London) the damage might not be quite as severe as it really ought to be. I think getting rid of Labour and growing a replacement opposition is going to prove much more difficult than some seem to be assuming.
They should be worried about Wales and the North East, which have seen huge falls in Labour support, having been Labour strongholds. Wales has reached a tipping point, where the Tories are close to overhauling Labour. The North East could reach that tipping point in 10 years' time.
Certainly while Labour remains dominated by the hard left and the Tories keep an anti immigration agenda that is the case especially in rural and market towns in Wales and the North East but at the same time London and the big cities of the North West like Liverpool and Manchester will become more strongly Labour and the LDs will also start to make further progress in the South East
Given the current polling position, and assuming the implementation of boundary -sized constituencies in the South and North-East of Wales.
Labour's grip on most of inner London, Birmingham, Liverpool and Manchester will ultimately be useless to it if it is failing to make gains anywhere else, and in outright retreat in dozens of marginals around the fringes whilst the Conservatives are left to do what they like.
The Liberal Democrats have effectively remodelled themselves as a single issue Europhile campaign group, a fact reflected in the difficulty they are having even in overtaking Ukip for third place in national VI polling. As things stand they are most unlikely to make a significant impact at the next General Election, except perhaps in helping to facilitate a Conservative landslide by stealing Labour votes in some marginal seats.
As long as Labour is led by Corbyn or a Corbynista then Labour has no hope of making much progress outside its safe seats and the inner cities no (unless Brexit causes an economic depression). The LDs though have a number of Remain voting Tory seats like Twickenham, Kingston Upon Thames, Lewes, Guildford, Bath etc in the South and prosperous outer London suburbs they used to hold and could win again as Richmond Park showed
Scotland + SE England + SW England + Eastern England = c.260 seats. Labour currently holds 13 of them. Not moving in the appropriate direction to make gains.
Looked at more positively they don't have a lot to lose in these areas. If they do better in the Cities (and there is some indications of that, particularly in London) the damage might not be quite as severe as it really ought to be. I think getting rid of Labour and growing a replacement opposition is going to prove much more difficult than some seem to be assuming.
They should be worried about Wales and the North East, which have seen huge falls in Labour support, having been Labour strongholds. Wales has reached a tipping point, where the Tories are close to overhauling Labour. The North East could reach that tipping point in 10 years' time.
I think at the next election it is the east and west midlands that they will need to worry about. They have a lot more to lose there.
The north too. Plenty of Brexity marginals / targets in the North West and Yorkshire.
In fact, it's everywhere except London (where they're doing ok) and the south and Scotland (where they've hardly any MPs to lose).
Which is why Labour is feeling its way towards a Red Brexit that protects the workers rather than a Blue Bosses Brexit.
UKIP are toast, and those votes can be won back by the right sort of Brexit, one that actually serves up the extra £350 million per week for the NHS.
The complexity of the act of self harming that is Brexit is certainly beyond me.
Referring to experts I draw attention to a recent article in the Economist (February 11 to 17, 2017, page 19ff) that discusses the possible size of a Brexit exit charge. It could be humongous.
This really is the dumbest argument the Europhiles have come up with. Even taking the highest figure, what they are actually arguing is that because we might be liable for the equivalent of 4 years gross payments, we should instead commit ourselves to making those gross payments every year for ever more.
With arguments like that it is no wonder the Eurofanatics lost.
The complexity of the act of self harming that is Brexit is certainly beyond me.
Referring to experts I draw attention to a recent article in the Economist (February 11 to 17, 2017, page 19ff) that discusses the possible size of a Brexit exit charge. It could be humongous.
This really is the dumbest argument the Europhiles have come up with. Even taking the highest figure, what they are actually arguing is that because we might be liable for the equivalent of 4 years gross payments, we should instead commit ourselves to making those gross payments every year for ever more.
With arguments like that it is no wonder the Eurofanatics lost.
The complexity of the act of self harming that is Brexit is certainly beyond me.
Referring to experts I draw attention to a recent article in the Economist (February 11 to 17, 2017, page 19ff) that discusses the possible size of a Brexit exit charge. It could be humongous.
This really is the dumbest argument the Europhiles have come up with. Even taking the highest figure, what they are actually arguing is that because we might be liable for the equivalent of 4 years gross payments, we should instead commit ourselves to making those gross payments every year for ever more.
With arguments like that it is no wonder the Eurofanatics lost.
And you have to pay that bill upfront.
We don't have to do anything - we are a sovereign Country
Scotland + SE England + SW England + Eastern England = c.260 seats. Labour currently holds 13 of them. Not moving in the appropriate direction to make gains.
Looked at more positively they don't have a lot to lose in these areas. If they do better in the Cities (and there is some indications of that, particularly in London) the damage might not be quite as severe as it really ought to be. I think getting rid of Labour and growing a replacement opposition is going to prove much more difficult than some seem to be assuming.
They should be worried about Wales and the North East, which have seen huge falls in Labour support, having been Labour strongholds. Wales has reached a tipping point, where the Tories are close to overhauling Labour. The North East could reach that tipping point in 10 years' time.
I think at the next election it is the east and west midlands that they will need to worry about. They have a lot more to lose there.
The north too. Plenty of Brexity marginals / targets in the North West and Yorkshire.
In fact, it's everywhere except London (where they're doing ok) and the south and Scotland (where they've hardly any MPs to lose).
Which is why Labour is feeling its way towards a Red Brexit that protects the workers rather than a Blue Bosses Brexit.
UKIP are toast, and those votes can be won back by the right sort of Brexit, one tbat actually serves up the extra £350 million per week for the NHS.
Is Labour feeling its way towards that? Corbyn is - sensibly for once - but he seems to be struggling to take his party with him.
A helpful reminder that not all polities are alike: in France, voter support for the most Right-wing option goes DOWN with age.
Macron has the most support amongst the young though, Le Pen's biggest support is with the middle aged and Fillon is still a rightwing option and indeed on economics more of a rightwing option than Le Pen
Post Brexit Remainers really are the biggest bunch of whining maggots.
ROFLMAO
After the EU referendum, a curious thing happened. The winners were neither happy, nor triumphant. The victory announcement by Boris Johnson was funereal, almost resentful. It was almost as though the campaigners had practised and perfected their “outsiders against the establishment” lines during the campaign, and once on the winning side had no script.
Sure enough, once the shock of the result dissipated, the sharp tone of the leave campaign returned to fill the vacuum. Any issues with Brexit were the fault of those who voted remain: they were “talking Britain down”, as if the pound’s depreciation were more sensitive to the chatter of negative remainers than to the seismic shock of a vote to leave the largest economic union on earth. Having gone through a polarising referendum and secured an unlikely victory, those on the winning side are still angry, angrier even than they were before.
I expect the LDs to be competitive over a large section of Southern, South Western suburban and rural England and Wales, while Labour has over 150 rock solid urban seats. They will be competitive in different geographies.
There are very few close Con/LD marginals, so this requires one to make some pretty heroic assumptions about the ability of the Lib Dems to win back large numbers of voters from other parties. This probably means significant movements directly from the Tories, as well as squeezing Labour for votes. And needless to say, this is rather more difficult in the context of a General Election - having to fight all of your target seats at once, and get yourself heard in a 2.5 party system in which the SNP, not you, are the 0.5 - than in a one-off contest in a custom-made seat like Richmond Park.
There is little evidence, as yet, to suggest that they are likely to prove able to achieve the swings required.
There is Brexit role for Remainers, which is to help produce an outcome which is worse than what we had before, but better than it would otherwise be. The problem is that Remainers don't see why they should deal with problems that they think others caused; while Leavers don't accept the consequences of their earlier decision and are therefore incapable of dealing with those consequences.
We will deal with the consequences as and when they appear rather than sitting around claiming the sky is falling when it quite clearly is not.
Many years ago when such things were still fresh in people's minds, there used to be a popular comment along the lines of whether or not you would want a chap beside you in the trenches. Most Remainers would very clearly fail that test.
That's hardly a recipe for Brexit success. Particularly when Leavers refuse to accept they started the war.
Lol, delusional like the rest of your EUphile rabble. Fuck off to Europe.
Scotland + SE England + SW England + Eastern England = c.260 seats. Labour currently holds 13 of them. Not moving in the appropriate direction to make gains.
Looked at more positively they don't have a lot to lose in these areas. If they do better in the Cities (and there is some indications of that, particularly in London) the damage might not be quite as severe assuming.
They should be worried about Wales and the North East, which have seen huge falls in Labour support, having been Labour strongholds. Wales has reached a tipping point, where the Tories are close to overhauling Labour. The North East could reach that tipping point in 10 years' time.
Certainly while Labour remains dominated East
Given the current polling position, and assuming the implementation of boundary change, the Conservatives may be close to parity with Labour in Wales post-2020. Of course, if there's an early election based on the current boundaries then Labour should be able to hold onto the bulk of its under-sized constituencies in the South and North-East of Wales.
Labour's grip on most of inner London, Birmingham, Liverpool and Manchester will ultimately be useless to it if it is failing to make gains anywhere else, and in outright retreat in dozens of marginals around the fringes of the major conurbations. It could end up with enough safe seats to render itself extremely hard to dislodge as the main Opposition, yet simultaneously appeal to such a narrow range of voters that it might struggle ever to return to Government. This is very dangerous for the country: Labour could simply sit there uselessly for a decade or more, stifling the birth of a successor whilst the Conservatives are left to do what they like.
The Liberal Democrats have effectively remodelled themselves as a single issue Europhile campaign group, a fact reflected in the difficulty they are having even in overtaking Ukip for third place in national VI polling. As things stand they are most unlikely to make a significant impact at the next General Election, except perhaps in helping to facilitate a Conservative landslide by stealing Labour votes in some marginal seats.
I expect the LDs to be competitive over a large section of Southern, South Western suburban and rural England and Wales, while Labour has over 150 rock solid urban seats. They will be competitive in different geographies.
I expect the Lib Dems can regain a lot of strong second places. I don't think they'll trouble many Conservative incumbents.
Post Brexit Remainers really are the biggest bunch of whining maggots.
ROFLMAO
After the EU referendum, a curious thing happened. The winners were neither happy, nor triumphant. The victory announcement by Boris Johnson was funereal, almost resentful. It was almost as though the campaigners had practised and perfected their “outsiders against the establishment” lines during the campaign, and once on the winning side had no script.
Sure enough, once the shock of the result dissipated, the sharp tone of the leave campaign returned to fill the vacuum. Any issues with Brexit were the fault of those who voted remain: they were “talking Britain down”, as if the pound’s depreciation were more sensitive to the chatter of negative remainers than to the seismic shock of a vote to leave the largest economic union on earth. Having gone through a polarising referendum and secured an unlikely victory, those on the winning side are still angry, angrier even than they were before.
Keep posting the same old rubbish Scott. It makes you look even more idiotic than when you have to run those two brain cells together for original thought.
I predict the controversial attention seeker who says shocking things to court publicity will be shocked at the shocked reaction to the controversial this he has said in the past to court publicity.
Scotland + SE England + SW England + Eastern England = c.260 seats. Labour currently holds 13 of them. Not moving in the appropriate direction to make gains.
Looked at more positively they don't have a lot to lose in these areas. If they do better in the Cities (and there is some indications of that, particularly in London) the damage might not be quite as severe as it really ought to be. I think getting rid of Labour and growing a replacement opposition is going to prove much more difficult than some seem to be assuming.
They should be worried about Wales and the North East, which have seen huge falls in Labour support, having been Labour strongholds. Wales has reached a tipping point, where the Tories are close to overhauling Labour. The North East could reach that tipping point in 10 years' time.
I think at the next election it is the east and west midlands that they will need to worry about. They have a lot more to lose there.
The north too. Plenty of Brexity marginals / targets in the North West and Yorkshire.
In fact, it's everywhere except London (where they're doing ok) and the south and Scotland (where they've hardly any MPs to lose).
Which is why Labour is feeling its way towards a Red Brexit that protects the workers rather than a Blue Bosses Brexit.
UKIP are toast, and those votes can be won back by the right sort of Brexit, one that actually serves up the extra £350 million per week for the NHS.
Just imagine what it would be like were the NHS to actually receive an additional £350 million per week
Chauffeur-driven Rolls Royces to take the nurses to and from their hospitals.
Gold-plated bedsteads for the patients and Gordon Ramsay designed menus.
£10,000 per week for the locums ....... oh wait ......!
Scotland + SE England + SW England + Eastern England = c.260 seats. Labour currently holds 13 of them. Not moving in the appropriate direction to make gains.
Looked at more positively they don't have a lot to lose in these areas. If they do better in the Cities (and there is some indications of that, particularly in London) the damage might not be quite as severe as it really ought to be. I think getting rid of Labour and growing a replacement opposition is going to prove much more difficult than some seem to be assuming.
They should be worried about Wales and the North East, which have seen huge falls in Labour support, having been Labour strongholds. Wales has reached a tipping point, where the Tories are close to overhauling Labour. The North East could reach that tipping point in 10 years' time.
I think at the next election it is the east and west midlands that they will need to worry about. They have a lot more to lose there.
The north too. Plenty of Brexity marginals / targets in the North West and Yorkshire.
In fact, it's everywhere except London (where they're doing ok) and the south and Scotland (where they've hardly any MPs to lose).
Which is why Labour is feeling its way towards a Red Brexit that protects the workers rather than a Blue Bosses Brexit.
UKIP are toast, and those votes can be won back by the right sort of Brexit, one tbat actually serves up the extra £350 million per week for the NHS.
Is Labour feeling its way towards that? Corbyn is - sensibly for once - but he seems to be struggling to take his party with him.
Sure, the road ahead is not yet clear, but that is true also for the Tories, when their business backers want a bonfire of the welfare state as the price of the inevitable Hard Brexit.
British social conservatism is not like American social conservatism. Britons are not that bothered if gays marry ostentatiously, but threaten their local hospital with downgrading and there is hell to pay.
The Tory STP's are looking at closing a lot of smaller hospitals in marginal constituencies across provincial England. That may not be difficult to sell in Surrey, but it will not sell in Copeland. It is why Copeland is the one to watch on Thursday. Stoke is a circus, with clowns.
Post Brexit Remainers really are the biggest bunch of whining maggots.
ROFLMAO
After the EU referendum, a curious thing happened. The winners were neither happy, nor triumphant. The victory announcement by Boris Johnson was funereal, almost resentful. It was almost as though the campaigners had practised and perfected their “outsiders against the establishment” lines during the campaign, and once on the winning side had no script.
Sure enough, once the shock of the result dissipated, the sharp tone of the leave campaign returned to fill the vacuum. Any issues with Brexit were the fault of those who voted remain: they were “talking Britain down”, as if the pound’s depreciation were more sensitive to the chatter of negative remainers than to the seismic shock of a vote to leave the largest economic union on earth. Having gone through a polarising referendum and secured an unlikely victory, those on the winning side are still angry, angrier even than they were before.
Now Milo's book cancelled. Blizzards of snowflakes everywhere. People in power soon ditch the no longer useful idiots.
It's all part of a cunning masterplan to get loads of clicks on Youtube, or to distract from what Trump is really up to, or to get people to realise what a disaster liberal Europe is.
Scotland + SE England + SW England + Eastern England = c.260 seats. Labour currently holds 13 of them. Not moving in the appropriate direction to make gains.
Looked at more positively they don't have a lot to lose in these areas. If they do better in the Cities (and there is some indications of that, particularly in London) the damage might not be quite as severe as it really ought to be. I think getting rid of Labour and growing a replacement opposition is going to prove much more difficult than some seem to be assuming.
They should be worried about Wales and the North East, which have seen huge falls in Labour support, having been Labour strongholds. Wales has reached a tipping point, where the Tories are close to overhauling Labour. The North East could reach that tipping point in 10 years' time.
I think at the next election it is the east and west midlands that they will need to worry about. They have a lot more to lose there.
The north too. Plenty of Brexity marginals / targets in the North West and Yorkshire.
In fact, it's everywhere except London (where they're doing ok) and the south and Scotland (where they've hardly any MPs to lose).
But, as these byelections are showing, Brexit is not an obstacle to Labour. While all reports say Labour is having problems in both seats, virtually noone on the doorsteps is apparently citing Brexit as a reason. Labour Leave voters do not see a contradiction between support Brexit, yet at the same time still generally having a Labourish view on most other issues.
Admittedly, that might be because Corbyn may have neutralised the issue by voting for Article 50 - if Labour were seen as trying to block it, there might be more appetite to vote for the Tories or UKIP from LabLeave voters to try and make sure it happens. But still, the thought process that "people in this seat voted Leave, therefore they'll never vote Labour again" is being shown to be ridiculously simplistic, judging from these byelections.
I expect the LDs to be competitive over a large section of Southern, South Western suburban and rural England and Wales, while Labour has over 150 rock solid urban seats. They will be competitive in different geographies.
There are very few close Con/LD marginals, so this requires one to make some pretty heroic assumptions about the ability of the Lib Dems to win back large numbers of voters from other parties. This probably means significant movements directly from the Tories, as well as squeezing Labour for votes. And needless to say, this is rather more difficult in the context of a General Election - having to fight all of your target seats at once, and get yourself heard in a 2.5 party system in which the SNP, not you, are the 0.5 - than in a one-off contest in a custom-made seat like Richmond Park.
There is little evidence, as yet, to suggest that they are likely to prove able to achieve the swings required.
Remain voting Tory seats which used to have a LD MP like Bath, Kingston Upon Thames, Twickenham, Lewes, Guildford, Winchester, Harrogate as well as of course Richmond Park are all potential LD gains at the next election if they work them hard enough and for a party which only has 8 MPs every gain is significant
Now Milo's book cancelled. Blizzards of snowflakes everywhere. People in power soon ditch the no longer useful idiots.
It's all part of a cunning masterplan to get loads of clicks on Youtube, or to distract from what Trump is really up to, or to get people to realise what a disaster liberal Europe is.
Post Brexit Remainers really are the biggest bunch of whining maggots.
ROFLMAO
After the EU referendum, a curious thing happened. The winners were neither happy, nor triumphant. The victory announcement by Boris Johnson was funereal, almost resentful. It was almost as though the campaigners had practised and perfected their “outsiders against the establishment” lines during the campaign, and once on the winning side had no script.
Sure enough, once the shock of the result dissipated, the sharp tone of the leave campaign returned to fill the vacuum. Any issues with Brexit were the fault of those who voted remain: they were “talking Britain down”, as if the pound’s depreciation were more sensitive to the chatter of negative remainers than to the seismic shock of a vote to leave the largest economic union on earth. Having gone through a polarising referendum and secured an unlikely victory, those on the winning side are still angry, angrier even than they were before.
Requoting moronic Guardian pieces which have already been proved wrong is hardly the way to advance your cause. Even though that does seem to be the limit of your abilities.
We don't have to do anything - we are a sovereign Country
...while still a member of the EU...
How is that possible ? !!!!!
Big G, you will have to explain it to them in big letters with short words and lots of coloured pictures. They are too dumb for anything more advanced.
Scotland + SE England + SW England + Eastern England = c.260 seats. Labour currently holds 13 of them. Not moving in the appropriate direction to make gains.
Looked at more positively they don't have a lot to lose in these areas. If they do better in the Cities (and there is some indications of that, particularly in London) the damage might not be quite as severe as it really ought to be. I think getting rid of Labour and growing a replacement opposition is going to prove much more difficult than some seem to be assuming.
They should be worried about Wales and the North East, which have seen huge falls in Labour support, having been Labour strongholds. Wales has reached a tipping point, where the Tories are close to overhauling Labour. The North East could reach that tipping point in 10 years' time.
I think at the next election it is the east and west midlands that they will need to worry about. They have a lot more to lose there.
The north too. Plenty of Brexity marginals / targets in the North West and Yorkshire.
In fact, it's everywhere except London (where they're doing ok) and the south and Scotland (where they've hardly any MPs to lose).
Which is why Labour is feeling its way towards a Red Brexit that protects the workers rather than a Blue Bosses Brexit.
UKIP are toast, and those votes can be won back by the right sort of Brexit, one that actually serves up the extra £350 million per week for the NHS.
Just imagine what it would be like were the NHS to actually receive an additional £350 million per week
Chauffeur-driven Rolls Royces to take the nurses to and from their hospitals.
Gold-plated bedsteads for the patients and Gordon Ramsay designed menus.
£10,000 per week for the locums ....... oh wait ......!
Well, higher pay for British workers by removing foreign labour is the purpose of Brexit, is it not?
Or is it only higher pay for plumbers not nurses and locums that you have in mind?
I am going locum in a few years, so I can pick my own hours and payscales. Brexit will be a workers paradise.
There is Brexit role for Remainers, which is to help produce an outcome which is worse than what we had before, but better than it would otherwise be. The problem is that Remainers don't see why they should deal with problems that they think others caused; while Leavers don't accept the consequences of their earlier decision and are therefore incapable of dealing with those consequences.
We will deal with the consequences as and when they appear rather than sitting around claiming the sky is falling when it quite clearly is not.
Many years ago when such things were still fresh in people's minds, there used to be a popular comment along the lines of whether or not you would want a chap beside you in the trenches. Most Remainers would very clearly fail that test.
That's hardly a recipe for Brexit success. Particularly when Leavers refuse to accept they started the war.
Lol, delusional like the rest of your EUphile rabble. Fuck off to Europe.
So Brexit is not just withdrawal from the EU, but also from Europe? Wow.
There is Brexit role for Remainers, which is to help produce an outcome which is worse than what we had before, but better than it would otherwise be. The problem is that Remainers don't see why they should deal with problems that they think others caused; while Leavers don't accept the consequences of their earlier decision and are therefore incapable of dealing with those consequences.
We will deal with the consequences as and when they appear rather than sitting around claiming the sky is falling when it quite clearly is not.
Many years ago when such things were still fresh in people's minds, there used to be a popular comment along the lines of whether or not you would want a chap beside you in the trenches. Most Remainers would very clearly fail that test.
That's hardly a recipe for Brexit success. Particularly when Leavers refuse to accept they started the war.
Lol, delusional like the rest of your EUphile rabble. Fuck off to Europe.
You Brexiters are coming across as very angry, tetchy "winners", anyone would think you were worried that it's going to turn out to be a total f*ing disaster!
Now Milo's book cancelled. Blizzards of snowflakes everywhere. People in power soon ditch the no longer useful idiots.
It's all part of a cunning masterplan to get loads of clicks on Youtube, or to distract from what Trump is really up to, or to get people to realise what a disaster liberal Europe is.
Or something.
Indeed. We heard that protests would merely introduce Milo's views to a whole new audience who previously didn't know of him. Unfortunately, those people were his employers and Republicans wanting to be re-elected. Alanis Morissette could have written a song about it.
There is Brexit role for Remainers, which is to help produce an outcome which is worse than what we had before, but better than it would otherwise be. The problem is that Remainers don't see why they should deal with problems that they think others caused; while Leavers don't accept the consequences of their earlier decision and are therefore incapable of dealing with those consequences.
We will deal with the consequences as and when they appear rather than sitting around claiming the sky is falling when it quite clearly is not.
Many years ago when such things were still fresh in people's minds, there used to be a popular comment along the lines of whether or not you would want a chap beside you in the trenches. Most Remainers would very clearly fail that test.
That's hardly a recipe for Brexit success. Particularly when Leavers refuse to accept they started the war.
Lol, delusional like the rest of your EUphile rabble. Fuck off to Europe.
You Brexiters are coming across as very angry, tetchy "winners", anyone would think you were worried that it's going to turn out to be a total f*ing disaster!
Requoting moronic Guardian pieces which have already been proved wrong is hardly the way to advance your cause. Even though that does seem to be the limit of your abilities.
Clearly you are not a whining, angry Brexiter. AT ALL!
Now Milo's book cancelled. Blizzards of snowflakes everywhere. People in power soon ditch the no longer useful idiots.
It's all part of a cunning masterplan to get loads of clicks on Youtube, or to distract from what Trump is really up to, or to get people to realise what a disaster liberal Europe is.
You Brexiters are coming across as very angry, tetchy "winners", anyone would think you were worried that it's going to turn out to be a total f*ing disaster!
Scotland + SE England + SW England + Eastern England = c.260 seats. Labour currently holds 13 of them. Not moving in the appropriate direction to make gains.
Looked at more positively they don't have a lot to lose in these areas. If they do better in the Cities (and there is some indications of that, particularly in London) the damage might not be quite as severe as it really ought to be. I think getting rid of Labour and growing a replacement opposition is going to prove much more difficult than some seem to be assuming.
They should be worried about Wales and the North East, which have seen huge falls in Labour support, having been Labour strongholds. Wales has reached a tipping point, where the Tories are close to overhauling Labour. The North East could reach that tipping point in 10 years' time.
I think at the next election it is the east and west midlands that they will need to worry about. They have a lot more to lose there.
The north too. Plenty of Brexity marginals / targets in the North West and Yorkshire.
In fact, it's everywhere except London (where they're doing ok) and the south and Scotland (where they've hardly any MPs to lose).
Which is why Labour is feeling its way towards a Red Brexit that protects the workers rather than a Blue Bosses Brexit.
UKIP are toast, and those votes can be won back by the right sort of Brexit, one that actually serves up the extra £350 million per week for the NHS.
Just imagine what it would be like were the NHS to actually receive an additional £350 million per week
Chauffeur-driven Rolls Royces to take the nurses to and from their hospitals.
Gold-plated bedsteads for the patients and Gordon Ramsay designed menus.
£10,000 per week for the locums ....... oh wait ......!
Well, higher pay for British workers by removing foreign labour is the purpose of Brexit, is it not?
Or is it only higher pay for plumbers not nurses and locums that you have in mind?
I am going locum in a few years, so I can pick my own hours and payscales. Brexit will be a workers paradise.
We are spending 120bn on the NHS this year (King's Fund figure) which is 2.3 bn a week, so a 350m boost while not negligible is not that exciting.
Just been to the Sutton Utd V The Arse game. Fantastic atmosphere, dull game. And who should stand next to me , but Mr Speaker Bercow. Taller than expected. He wasn't grumpy or bashful, but happy. Clearly an Arsenal fan.
I expect the LDs to be competitive over a large section of Southern, South Western suburban and rural England and Wales, while Labour has over 150 rock solid urban seats. They will be competitive in different geographies.
There are very few close Con/LD marginals, so this requires one to make some pretty heroic assumptions about the ability of the Lib Dems to win back large numbers of voters from other parties. This probably means significant movements directly from the Tories, as well as squeezing Labour for votes. And needless to say, this is rather more difficult in the context of a General Election - having to fight all of your target seats at once, and get yourself heard in a 2.5 party system in which the SNP, not you, are the 0.5 - than in a one-off contest in a custom-made seat like Richmond Park.
There is little evidence, as yet, to suggest that they are likely to prove able to achieve the swings required.
Remain voting Tory seats which used to have a LD MP like Bath, Kingston Upon Thames, Twickenham, Lewes, Guildford, Winchester, Harrogate as well as of course Richmond Park are all potential LD gains at the next election if they work them hard enough and for a party which only has 8 MPs every gain is significant
Conversely, under boundary change it is currently estimated that four of the eight seats they won in 2015 would be notionally held by another party. Even in the event of an early election, it's arguable that none of their MPs are safe apart from Farron himself. So they must also defend.
There's enough evidence from the polls now to reasonably suggest that the Lib Dems have recovered support, crudely speaking, from around 8% to 11%, principally at Labour's expense. But they still have a Hell of a long way to go.
There is Brexit role for Remainers, which is to help produce an outcome which is worse than what we had before, but better than it would otherwise be. The problem is that Remainers don't see why they should deal with problems that they think others caused; while Leavers don't accept the consequences of their earlier decision and are therefore incapable of dealing with those consequences.
We will deal with the consequences as and when they appear rather than sitting around claiming the sky is falling when it quite clearly is not.
Many years ago when such things were still fresh in people's minds, there used to be a popular comment along the lines of whether or not you would want a chap beside you in the trenches. Most Remainers would very clearly fail that test.
That's hardly a recipe for Brexit success. Particularly when Leavers refuse to accept they started the war.
Lol, delusional like the rest of your EUphile rabble. Fuck off to Europe.
Exactly! You and RT demonstrate my original point. Remainers don't want to be engaged, while Leavers refuse to take responsibility. That isn't a good situation.
Scotland + SE England + SW England + Eastern England = c.260 seats. Labour currently holds 13 of them. Not moving in the appropriate direction to make gains.
Looked at more positively they don't have a lot to lose in these areas. If they do better in the Cities (and there is some indications of that, particularly in London) the damage might not be quite as severe as it really ought to be. I think getting rid of Labour and growing a replacement opposition is going to prove much more difficult than some seem to be assuming.
They should be worried about Wales and the North East, which have seen huge falls in Labour support, having been Labour strongholds. Wales has reached a tipping point, where the Tories are close to overhauling Labour. The North East could reach that tipping point in 10 years' time.
I think at the next election it is the east and west midlands that they will need to worry about. They have a lot more to lose there.
The north too. Plenty of Brexity marginals / targets in the North West and Yorkshire.
In fact, it's everywhere except London (where they're doing ok) and the south and Scotland (where they've hardly any MPs to lose).
Which is why Labour is feeling its way towards a Red Brexit that protects the workers rather than a Blue Bosses Brexit.
UKIP are toast, and those votes can be won back by the right sort of Brexit, one that actually serves up the extra £350 million per week for the NHS.
Just imagine what it would be like were the NHS to actually receive an additional £350 million per week
Chauffeur-driven Rolls Royces to take the nurses to and from their hospitals.
Gold-plated bedsteads for the patients and Gordon Ramsay designed menus.
£10,000 per week for the locums ....... oh wait ......!
Well, higher pay for British workers by removing foreign labour is the purpose of Brexit, is it not?
Or is it only higher pay for plumbers not nurses and locums that you have in mind?
I am going locum in a few years, so I can pick my own hours and payscales. Brexit will be a workers paradise.
We are spending 120bn on the NHS this year (King's Fund figure) which is 2.3 bn a week, so a 350m boost while not negligible is not that exciting.
OK ..... in that case scrap the gold-plated bedsteads!
Scotland + SE England + SW England + Eastern England = c.260 seats. Labour currently holds 13 of them. Not moving in the appropriate direction to make gains.
Looked at more positively they don't have a lot to lose in these areas. If they do better in the Cities (and there is some indications of that, particularly in London) the damage might not be quite as severe as it really ought to be. I think getting rid of Labour and growing a replacement opposition is going to prove much more difficult than some seem to be assuming.
They should be worried about Wales and the North East, which have seen huge falls in Labour support, having been Labour strongholds. Wales has reached a tipping point, where the Tories are close to overhauling Labour. The North East could reach that tipping point in 10 years' time.
I think at the next election it is the east and west midlands that they will need to worry about. They have a lot more to lose there.
The north too. Plenty of Brexity marginals / targets in the North West and Yorkshire.
In fact, it's everywhere except London (where they're doing ok) and the south and Scotland (where they've hardly any MPs to lose).
Which is why Labour is week for the NHS.
Is Labour feeling its way towards that? Corbyn is - sensibly for once - but he seems to be struggling to take his party with him.
Sure, the road ahead is not yet clear, but that is true also for the Tories, when their business backers want a bonfire of the welfare state as the price of the inevitable Hard Brexit.
British social conservatism is not like American social conservatism. Britons are not that bothered if gays marry ostentatiously, but threaten their local hospital with downgrading and there is hell to pay.
The Tory STP's are looking at closing a lot of smaller hospitals in marginal constituencies across provincial England. That may not be difficult to sell in Surrey, but it will not sell in Copeland. It is why Copeland is the one to watch on Thursday. Stoke is a circus, with clowns.
The Tories are actually putting more money into the NHS across the course of this parliament and May is economically actually if anything slightly left of Cameron, where she has moved right is on the EU and immigration and grammar schools so she actually has shifted marginally away from ABC1 voters more towards C2DEs. Gay marriage is now legal in the US as well as the UK and even Trump is not going to try and repeal it
Now Milo's book cancelled. Blizzards of snowflakes everywhere. People in power soon ditch the no longer useful idiots.
It's all part of a cunning masterplan to get loads of clicks on Youtube, or to distract from what Trump is really up to, or to get people to realise what a disaster liberal Europe is.
There is Brexit role for Remainers, which is to help produce an outcome which is worse than what we had before, but better than it would otherwise be. The problem is that Remainers don't see why they should deal with problems that they think others caused; while Leavers don't accept the consequences of their earlier decision and are therefore incapable of dealing with those consequences.
We will deal with the consequences as and when they appear rather than sitting around claiming the sky is falling when it quite clearly is not.
Many years ago when such things were still fresh in people's minds, there used to be a popular comment along the lines of whether or not you would want a chap beside you in the trenches. Most Remainers would very clearly fail that test.
That's hardly a recipe for Brexit success. Particularly when Leavers refuse to accept they started the war.
Lol, delusional like the rest of your EUphile rabble. Fuck off to Europe.
So Brexit is not just withdrawal from the EU, but also from Europe? Wow.
Surely it is MaxPB that has "fucked off to Europe"? his Eurosceptic language is not matched by his actions, like many PB Expat Leavers. A sort of Bostonian Expat Irish that are very patriotic, just don't want to live there.
There is Brexit role for Remainers, which is to help produce an outcome which is worse than what we had before, but better than it would otherwise be. The problem is that Remainers don't see why they should deal with problems that they think others caused; while Leavers don't accept the consequences of their earlier decision and are therefore incapable of dealing with those consequences.
We will deal with the consequences as and when they appear rather than sitting around claiming the sky is falling when it quite clearly is not.
Many years ago when such things were still fresh in people's minds, there used to be a popular comment along the lines of whether or not you would want a chap beside you in the trenches. Most Remainers would very clearly fail that test.
That's hardly a recipe for Brexit success. Particularly when Leavers refuse to accept they started the war.
Lol, delusional like the rest of your EUphile rabble. Fuck off to Europe.
You Brexiters are coming across as very angry, tetchy "winners", anyone would think you were worried that it's going to turn out to be a total f*ing disaster!
Not really, I just tire of the same fucking bullshit day after day after day. When brexit turns out to be a middling compromise which is neither successful nor a failure I do hope everyone will just move on. Those who can't really should fuck off the Brussels with Mandy and Blair, some of your lot seem to have gone round the bend.
Requoting moronic Guardian pieces which have already been proved wrong is hardly the way to advance your cause. Even though that does seem to be the limit of your abilities.
Clearly you are not a whining, angry Brexiter. AT ALL!
Glad you accept that. And why should I whine. We won. You lost. I don't say it often but once in a while it is nice to remind you of just how much of a failure you have been. You carry on predicting disaster and the rest of us will carry on enjoying our success.
Just been to the Sutton Utd V The Arse game. Fantastic atmosphere, dull game. And who should stand next to me , but Mr Speaker Bercow. Taller than expected. He wasn't grumpy or bashful, but happy. Clearly an Arsenal fan.
Seemed quite a good game on TV. But maybe I'm used to watching Everton.
Glad you accept that. And why should I whine. We won. You lost. I don't say it often but once in a while it is nice to remind you of just how much of a failure you have been. You carry on predicting disaster and the rest of us will carry on enjoying our success.
I expect the LDs to be competitive over a large section of Southern, South Western suburban and rural England and Wales, while Labour has over 150 rock solid urban seats. They will be competitive in different geographies.
There are very few close Con/LD marginals, so this requires one to make some pretty heroic assumptions about the ability of the Lib Dems to win back large numbers of voters from other parties. This probably means significant movements directly from the Tories, as well as squeezing Labour for votes. And needless to say, this is rather more difficult in the context of a General Election - having to fight all of your target seats at once, and get yourself heard in a 2.5 party system in which the SNP, not you, are the 0.5 - than in a one-off contest in a custom-made seat like Richmond Park.
There is little evidence, as yet, to suggest that they are likely to prove able to achieve the swings required.
Remain voting Tory seats which used to have a LD MP like Bath, Kingston Upon Thames, Twickenham, Lewes, Guildford, Winchester, Harrogate as well as of course Richmond Park are all potential LD gains at the next election if they work them hard enough and for a party which only has 8 MPs every gain is significant
Conversely, under boundary change it is currently estimated that four of the eight seats they won in 2015 would be notionally held by another party. Even in the event of an early election, it's arguable that none of their MPs are safe apart from Farron himself. So they must also defend.
There's enough evidence from the polls now to reasonably suggest that the Lib Dems have recovered support, crudely speaking, from around 8% to 11%, principally at Labour's expense. But they still have a Hell of a long way to go.
If the LDs are good at anything it is pouring into their selected targets, as their council and Richmond Park by election wins show, they will go hard at the next election in a few selected Tory and Labour Remain seats they held sometime between 1997-2015
There is Brexit role for Remainers, which is to help produce an outcome which is worse than what we had before, but better than it would otherwise be. The problem is that Remainers don't see why they should deal with problems that they think others caused; while Leavers don't accept the consequences of their earlier decision and are therefore incapable of dealing with those consequences.
We will deal with the consequences as and when they appear rather than sitting around claiming the sky is falling when it quite clearly is not.
Many years ago when such things were still fresh in people's minds, there used to be a popular comment along the lines of whether or not you would want a chap beside you in the trenches. Most Remainers would very clearly fail that test.
That's hardly a recipe for Brexit success. Particularly when Leavers refuse to accept they started the war.
Lol, delusional like the rest of your EUphile rabble. Fuck off to Europe.
Exactly! You and RT demonstrate my original point. Remainers don't want to be engaged, while Leavers refuse to take responsibility. That isn't a good situation.
Your version of engagement is "the EU is great, the UK is shit". As I said since you seem to love the EU so very much you should think about fucking off there and not looking back, since you seem to loathe the UK so much or at least think so little of our great nation.
Just been to the Sutton Utd V The Arse game. Fantastic atmosphere, dull game. And who should stand next to me , but Mr Speaker Bercow. Taller than expected. He wasn't grumpy or bashful, but happy. Clearly an Arsenal fan.
There is Brexit role for Remainers, which is to help produce an outcome which is worse than what we had before, but better than it would otherwise be. The problem is that Remainers don't see why they should deal with problems that they think others caused; while Leavers don't accept the consequences of their earlier decision and are therefore incapable of dealing with those consequences.
We will deal with the consequences as and when they appear rather than sitting around claiming the sky is falling when it quite clearly is not.
Many years ago when such things were still fresh in people's minds, there used to be a popular comment along the lines of whether or not you would want a chap beside you in the trenches. Most Remainers would very clearly fail that test.
That's hardly a recipe for Brexit success. Particularly when Leavers refuse to accept they started the war.
Lol, delusional like the rest of your EUphile rabble. Fuck off to Europe.
Exactly! You and RT demonstrate my original point. Remainers don't want to be engaged, while Leavers refuse to take responsibility. That isn't a good situation.
I am happy to take full responsibility. Just tell me what imaginary disaster we have caused. Until then stop moaning about nothing.
There is Brexit role for Remainers, which is to help produce an outcome which is worse than what we had before, but better than it would otherwise be. The problem is that Remainers don't see why they should deal with problems that they think others caused; while Leavers don't accept the consequences of their earlier decision and are therefore incapable of dealing with those consequences.
We will deal with the consequences as and when they appear rather than sitting around claiming the sky is falling when it quite clearly is not.
Many years ago when such things were still fresh in people's minds, there used to be a popular comment along the lines of whether or not you would want a chap beside you in the trenches. Most Remainers would very clearly fail that test.
That's hardly a recipe for Brexit success. Particularly when Leavers refuse to accept they started the war.
Lol, delusional like the rest of your EUphile rabble. Fuck off to Europe.
So Brexit is not just withdrawal from the EU, but also from Europe? Wow.
Surely it is MaxPB that has "fucked off to Europe"? his Eurosceptic language is not matched by his actions, like many PB Expat Leavers. A sort of Bostonian Expat Irish that are very patriotic, just don't want to live there.
Currently in the UK, back to Zurich tomorrow morning.
Glad you accept that. And why should I whine. We won. You lost. I don't say it often but once in a while it is nice to remind you of just how much of a failure you have been. You carry on predicting disaster and the rest of us will carry on enjoying our success.
That's a keeper
I tried to keep the words short so you would understand.
Comments
(1) We've not had boundary reform necessitating mass reselections yet.
(2) If the Corbyn wing are able to get the handful of additional votes they need for a majority on the NEC then they can change the nomination rules for the succession, so no significant degree of support will be needed in the PLP to nominate a Far Left replacement for Corbyn.
(3) If it goes into a General Election under current management, Labour could be so badly mauled that its Parliamentary forces would be reduced to a rump. This would promote radicalism firstly because parties have an unwelcome tendency to believe that they lost the last election because they weren't extreme enough; secondly through the departure of more moderate party members (those most likely to want to get the party back into Government) in despair; thirdly because victory will seem a more remote prospect than ever to the survivors, which will tempt them to give up on any notion of compromise with ungrateful voters and enjoy being true to themselves; and fourthly because the surviving MPs will be drawn disproportionately from inner city strongholds, which are more likely to be represented by regressive leftists or obsessed Continuity Remainers.
Were David Cameron to campaign for Remain and Leave won then that would almost certainly trigger his immediate resignation/removal as Conservative Party leader and thus First Lord of the Treasury, so the fate of the Prime Minister could well be in Mr Corbyn’s hands. Over to you Mr Corbyn.
Yesterday’s ICM poll gave Remain a 4% lead when you add in the potential for a very disunited Labour party on the EU referendum, Remain supporters should be very nervous about the outcome.
The best odds on Leave winning are 3/1 with Paddy Power.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/09/16/how-mr-corbyn-could-end-camerons-premiership/
I voted for Wes Streeting
In effect a Constituency Member in Wigan will have 10 times the voting effect of one in Islington.
Does Milo eat pizza by any chance?
All this thuggery will rebound eventually.
Labour's grip on most of inner London, Birmingham, Liverpool and Manchester will ultimately be useless to it if it is failing to make gains anywhere else, and in outright retreat in dozens of marginals around the fringes of the major conurbations. It could end up with enough safe seats to render itself extremely hard to dislodge as the main Opposition, yet simultaneously appeal to such a narrow range of voters that it might struggle ever to return to Government. This is very dangerous for the country: Labour could simply sit there uselessly for a decade or more, stifling the birth of a successor whilst the Conservatives are left to do what they like.
The Liberal Democrats have effectively remodelled themselves as a single issue Europhile campaign group, a fact reflected in the difficulty they are having even in overtaking Ukip for third place in national VI polling. As things stand they are most unlikely to make a significant impact at the next General Election, except perhaps in helping to facilitate a Conservative landslide by stealing Labour votes in some marginal seats.
In fact, it's everywhere except London (where they're doing ok) and the south and Scotland (where they've hardly any MPs to lose).
http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/769783/Marine-Le-Pen-Offices-Raided-Police-Jobs-Scandal-Fake-Investigation-Front-National
http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/769425/French-election-Marine-Le-Pen-no-chance-winning-Euro-weaker-RBC-Capital-Markets
I wonder if RCS 1000 is intending to offer a bet to PBers on the outcome?
A helpful reminder that not all polities are alike: in France, voter support for the most Right-wing option goes DOWN with age.
It will be published in the next few days, once Mike and myself have backed all his tips.
UKIP are toast, and those votes can be won back by the right sort of Brexit, one that actually serves up the extra £350 million per week for the NHS.
https://twitter.com/PublishersWkly/status/833802274187120640
How is that possible ? !!!!!
After the EU referendum, a curious thing happened. The winners were neither happy, nor triumphant. The victory announcement by Boris Johnson was funereal, almost resentful. It was almost as though the campaigners had practised and perfected their “outsiders against the establishment” lines during the campaign, and once on the winning side had no script.
Sure enough, once the shock of the result dissipated, the sharp tone of the leave campaign returned to fill the vacuum. Any issues with Brexit were the fault of those who voted remain: they were “talking Britain down”, as if the pound’s depreciation were more sensitive to the chatter of negative remainers than to the seismic shock of a vote to leave the largest economic union on earth. Having gone through a polarising referendum and secured an unlikely victory, those on the winning side are still angry, angrier even than they were before.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/dec/02/brexit-trump-populists-sore-winners-play-victim
There is little evidence, as yet, to suggest that they are likely to prove able to achieve the swings required.
Shockingly.
Chauffeur-driven Rolls Royces to take the nurses to and from their hospitals.
Gold-plated bedsteads for the patients and Gordon Ramsay designed menus.
£10,000 per week for the locums ....... oh wait ......!
British social conservatism is not like American social conservatism. Britons are not that bothered if gays marry ostentatiously, but threaten their local hospital with downgrading and there is hell to pay.
The Tory STP's are looking at closing a lot of smaller hospitals in marginal constituencies across provincial England. That may not be difficult to sell in Surrey, but it will not sell in Copeland. It is why Copeland is the one to watch on Thursday. Stoke is a circus, with clowns.
Or something.
Admittedly, that might be because Corbyn may have neutralised the issue by voting for Article 50 - if Labour were seen as trying to block it, there might be more appetite to vote for the Tories or UKIP from LabLeave voters to try and make sure it happens. But still, the thought process that "people in this seat voted Leave, therefore they'll never vote Labour again" is being shown to be ridiculously simplistic, judging from these byelections.
https://twitter.com/matthaig1/status/833799967525498880
Let's not feed this dimwit. Move on.
Or is it only higher pay for plumbers not nurses and locums that you have in mind?
I am going locum in a few years, so I can pick my own hours and payscales. Brexit will be a workers paradise.
There's enough evidence from the polls now to reasonably suggest that the Lib Dems have recovered support, crudely speaking, from around 8% to 11%, principally at Labour's expense. But they still have a Hell of a long way to go.
No doubt Scott Adams will make it all clear.