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SystemSystem Posts: 12,681
edited February 2017 in General
imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Latest YouGov sees LAB in third place, 3% behind UKIP, amongst the C2DEs

One very striking feature of the latest YouGov poll out this morning is LAB position amongst the lower socio-economic groups. The numbers are in the chart. As can be seen in this segment LAB is on just 20% which is 3% behind UKIP.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,165
    edited February 2017
    First, just to put the last thread out of its misery.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    Here's the VI of the 65 year olds and over

    Con 60%, UKIP 14%, Lab 11%, Lib Dem 9%

    So Lab in danger of finishing 4th among those who are most likely to vote.

    Take a bow Jeremy Corbyn, take a bow.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,705
    Glorious third!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Considering C2DEs are supposed to be Labour's "core vote" this just shows how much has gone wrong.

    I wonder what proportion of the ABC1s who are going for Labour are public sector employees.

    Labour has gone from being the party of what was once called the working class, to the party of those on the nation's payroll.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    Gareth Snell sounds like a pound shop Donald Trump

    He described Loose Women panellists as “Squabbling sour faced ladies”:

    The charmer said a “Speccy blonde girl” on the Apprentice is “f**king annoying“, and asked her: “why don’t you piss off”.

    Snell described the X Factor judge Danni Minogue as “bitchy“:

    Dismissed an unknown person who appeared on Question Time as a “stupid woman”:

    https://order-order.com/2017/02/13/labour-stoke-candidate-on-women-bitchy-sour-faced-stupid-and-fing-annoying/
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,891
    Mr. Smithson, remarkable indeed, but Labour are also third in Scotland. Would've got tasty odds on that a few years ago.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    On the face of it, ABC1s are now more left-wing on average than C2DEs.

    49:39 right-left versus 62:27 right-left, or a 10% lead and 35% lead, respectively.

    That's a hell of a turnaround compared to 15 years ago.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,818
    Sounds like Paul Mason getting in on the action of being utterly unpleasant:

    https://order-order.com/2017/02/13/paul-mason-ukip-voters-are-bike-nicking-toe-rags/
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    Luckily for everyone only about half of C2DEs actually vote.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,811
    what out for those upsts!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    When Labour is doing badly, it does badly with C2DEs? Well I am shocked.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Casino_Royale said:

    On the face of it, ABC1s are now more left-wing on average than C2DEs.

    49:39 right-left versus 62:27 right-left, or a 10% lead and 35% lead, respectively.

    That's a hell of a turnaround compared to 15 years ago.

    That's an interesting point.
  • theakestheakes Posts: 967
    Yes but UKIPs national vote is falling and falling, if you had taken this survey 12-18 months ago UKIPS figure would have been even higher. As usual there is a danger of overating their current danger. Given another 12-18 months where will they be. Their ground operation at Stoke is not so good, their % vote could fall.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,258
    edited February 2017
    Labour is no longer the party of the white working class but public sector workers and ethnic minorities however it is now losing ABC1 Remain voters to the LDs too
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Gareth Snell sounds like a pound shop Donald Trump

    He described Loose Women panellists as “Squabbling sour faced ladies”:

    The charmer said a “Speccy blonde girl” on the Apprentice is “f**king annoying“, and asked her: “why don’t you piss off”.

    Snell described the X Factor judge Danni Minogue as “bitchy“:

    Dismissed an unknown person who appeared on Question Time as a “stupid woman”:

    https://order-order.com/2017/02/13/labour-stoke-candidate-on-women-bitchy-sour-faced-stupid-and-fing-annoying/

    labour is going to lose stoke, the candidate is awful. When Labour have held their seats in by elections recently they have had hald decent candidates. Snell however is not even half decent. (sorry if you're reading this).
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 26,052
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Considering C2DEs are supposed to be Labour's "core vote" this just shows how much has gone wrong.

    I wonder what proportion of the ABC1s who are going for Labour are public sector employees.

    Labour has gone from being the party of what was once called the working class, to the party of those on the nation's payroll.

    Labour just needs to keep wheeling out Emily Thornberry or Yvette Cooper to remind the thickies that they are thick and should do what their betters tell them.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    All Labour need to do is get Geoffrey Wheatcroft to publish a book called 'The Strange Death of Labour England' and they'll be back in government in 5 years
  • scotslassscotslass Posts: 912
    I know it is just a sub sample but the scores on the boards from Scotland are SNP 54 TORY 23 AND LABOUR 14 which is virtually identical to yesterday's ComRes sub sample.Combine that with the 49 per cent indy support in last week's Herald poll.

    I think Ms Sturgeon is about to push the referendum button and May will come to regret beaking the promise she made last July to formulate an agreed UK position backed by Scotland.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    PB Labouristes are nearly all grinding snobs, so no surprise.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Considering C2DEs are supposed to be Labour's "core vote" this just shows how much has gone wrong.

    I wonder what proportion of the ABC1s who are going for Labour are public sector employees.

    Labour has gone from being the party of what was once called the working class, to the party of those on the nation's payroll.

    Labour's core vote is now 18-24.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    'The problem with both the coming by-elections is that the turnout is expected to be very low indeed and this could make a mockery of efforts to applying national polling to a local situation.'

    Finally someone writes some sense about national polling figures and the fool's errand of trying to link them with local, low turnout elections.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    theakes said:

    Yes but UKIPs national vote is falling and falling, if you had taken this survey 12-18 months ago UKIPS figure would have been even higher. As usual there is a danger of overating their current danger. Given another 12-18 months where will they be. Their ground operation at Stoke is not so good, their % vote could fall.

    It's not a good sign to fall behind something that is itself falling.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 26,052
    scotslass said:

    I know it is just a sub sample but the scores on the boards from Scotland are SNP 54 TORY 23 AND LABOUR 14 which is virtually identical to yesterday's ComRes sub sample.Combine that with the 49 per cent indy support in last week's Herald poll.

    I think Ms Sturgeon is about to push the referendum button and May will come to regret beaking the promise she made last July to formulate an agreed UK position backed by Scotland.

    rue the day etc.

  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    Jonathan said:

    When Labour is doing badly, it does badly with C2DEs? Well I am shocked.

    It's doing *disproportionately* badly with C2DEs. Labour wasn't behind in that group at the general election. Considering the demographic make-up of the current Tory target seats, that ought to be extremely worrying for Labour.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 26,052
    david_herdson said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Considering C2DEs are supposed to be Labour's "core vote" this just shows how much has gone wrong.

    I wonder what proportion of the ABC1s who are going for Labour are public sector employees.

    Labour has gone from being the party of what was once called the working class, to the party of those on the nation's payroll.

    Labour's core vote is now 18-24.
    so that's a core vote of non voters
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Dadge said:

    Luckily for everyone only about half of C2DEs actually vote.

    How many voted in the referendum? They will vote if they care - previously many didn't vote because they lived in Labour solid seats and their vote didn't matter. But they have seen what can happen to Labour in Scotland.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    scotslass said:

    I think Ms Sturgeon is about to push the referendum button and May will come to regret beaking the promise she made last July to formulate an agreed UK position backed by Scotland.

    Popcorn on standby....

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Kavanagh upbeat in The Sun:

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/opinion/2848046/uk-dealt-aces-after-calling-remain-bluff-on-brexit/
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    theakes said:

    Yes but UKIPs national vote is falling and falling, if you had taken this survey 12-18 months ago UKIPS figure would have been even higher. As usual there is a danger of overating their current danger. Given another 12-18 months where will they be. Their ground operation at Stoke is not so good, their % vote could fall.

    That's true. However, a possibility shouldn't be taken for a certainty. UKIP might get its act together in terms of ground game. Alternatively, if Labour's slump continues (or if the mainstream splits from the party organisation, though that's looking less likely now), it might not matter.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    ‪Bercow toast ?‬

    https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/831116967826251777
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Alanbrooke said:

    scotslass said:

    I know it is just a sub sample but the scores on the boards from Scotland are SNP 54 TORY 23 AND LABOUR 14 which is virtually identical to yesterday's ComRes sub sample.Combine that with the 49 per cent indy support in last week's Herald poll.

    I think Ms Sturgeon is about to push the referendum button and May will come to regret beaking the promise she made last July to formulate an agreed UK position backed by Scotland.

    rue the day etc.

    Overall, Brexit is considered to be the most important issue facing society today according to 28% of Scots, followed by the NHS, immigration and the cost of living.

    The issue of Scottish independence was only ranked as the most important by 8% of people.

    A total of 36% of respondents who voted SNP in 2015 agreed with the statement the party should “stop talking about referendums and get on with the job of governing Scotland”.

    https://www.sundaypost.com/fp/scots-want-to-keep-after-independence/
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    scotslass said:

    I know it is just a sub sample but the scores on the boards from Scotland are SNP 54 TORY 23 AND LABOUR 14 which is virtually identical to yesterday's ComRes sub sample.Combine that with the 49 per cent indy support in last week's Herald poll.

    I think Ms Sturgeon is about to push the referendum button and May will come to regret beaking the promise she made last July to formulate an agreed UK position backed by Scotland.

    Don't hold your breath.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,388
    Mr Eagles

    "Here's the VI of the 65 year olds and over."

    Speaking as one of that group, isn't it time Jezza grew up?

    We remember what Labour used to represent. The extremists were just the young firebrands, kept away from the knives and forks, and the reins of power, by the grown-ups. Now they lead the party. Chuck in the metropolitan luvvies and you're a recipe for electoral disaster.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    Jason said:

    'The problem with both the coming by-elections is that the turnout is expected to be very low indeed and this could make a mockery of efforts to applying national polling to a local situation.'

    Finally someone writes some sense about national polling figures and the fool's errand of trying to link them with local, low turnout elections.

    The problem is not so much "link[ing] them [national polling figures] with local, low turnout elections", but linking them with high octane campaign low turnout elections.

    By-elections give a very good insight into the national picture as long as they aren't overly affected by local issues or where the level of campaigning doesn't correspond to what might be expected at a GE.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    SeanT said:

    Beverley_C said:

    scotslass said:

    I think Ms Sturgeon is about to push the referendum button and May will come to regret beaking the promise she made last July to formulate an agreed UK position backed by Scotland.

    Popcorn on standby....

    But Sturgeon doesn't want to push the button. She wants to make it look likeshe is about to push the button any minute now, any minute, a few more seconds, here we go, look, she's about to push it, here we gooooooooo - thus provoking TMay into saying there can be no indyref2 until Brexit is completed. And Westminster has the final say on this.

    Thus Sturgeon avoids a vote she would likely lose (not one poll has YES ahead, even now), and gets to stoke the fires of Scots grievance for a swift vote post-Brexit.

    However Sturgeon might go so far in her brinkmanship that she HAS to call a plebiscite or risk a huge war within her own ranks. A dangerous game for all.
    One of the issues the Nats are getting exercised about is whether EU Nationals would get a vote......obviously not if we've left the EU, but then even before we leave the franchise is up to Westminster.....
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    Alanbrooke said:

    david_herdson said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Considering C2DEs are supposed to be Labour's "core vote" this just shows how much has gone wrong.

    I wonder what proportion of the ABC1s who are going for Labour are public sector employees.

    Labour has gone from being the party of what was once called the working class, to the party of those on the nation's payroll.

    Labour's core vote is now 18-24.
    so that's a core vote of non voters
    It's a lot of tweets though.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    david_herdson said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Considering C2DEs are supposed to be Labour's "core vote" this just shows how much has gone wrong.

    I wonder what proportion of the ABC1s who are going for Labour are public sector employees.

    Labour has gone from being the party of what was once called the working class, to the party of those on the nation's payroll.

    Labour's core vote is now 18-24.
    And that's 18 to 24 people, not the 18-24 age group.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,328
    UKIP likely to gain Stoke, as I've been saying for several weeks.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    SeanT said:

    Beverley_C said:

    scotslass said:

    I think Ms Sturgeon is about to push the referendum button and May will come to regret beaking the promise she made last July to formulate an agreed UK position backed by Scotland.

    Popcorn on standby....

    But Sturgeon doesn't want to push the button. She wants to make it look likeshe is about to push the button any minute now, any minute, a few more seconds, here we go, look, she's about to push it, here we gooooooooo - thus provoking TMay into saying there can be no indyref2 until Brexit is completed. And Westminster has the final say on this.

    Thus Sturgeon avoids a vote she would likely lose (not one poll has YES ahead, even now), and gets to stoke the fires of Scots grievance for a swift vote post-Brexit.

    However Sturgeon might go so far in her brinkmanship that she HAS to call a plebiscite or risk a huge war within her own ranks. A dangerous game for all.
    Your optimism somewhat undermined by the fact that the SNP are great campaigners and made up 20pts in the heat of the last independence campaign. (Salmond was miles behind at the start). Now they are 2pts behind, on the latest polling.

    Meantime, unionist continue to play into Wee Nicky's hands by being desperate for the EU to reject Scotland and advancing ludicrous scare stories about border patrol boats on the Tweed (but not, for some reason, on the Foyle).

    Sober up before you post on this topic again.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,818
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ‪Bercow toast ?‬

    https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/831116967826251777

    He's looking more and more shakey. I expect he would 'win' any vote on numbers, but surely if enough people don't have faith in him he should step down.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    SeanT said:

    fpt

    All these arguments about the "right" levels of immigration into the UK, are like arguments about the "best" use and disposal of horse manure in London streets, in about 1890


    So you are comparing people to faeces now?

    Drink some coffee and dry out man.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    CarlottaVance said:

    Kavanagh upbeat in The Sun:

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/opinion/2848046/uk-dealt-aces-after-calling-remain-bluff-on-brexit/

    Deluded....

    He starts with "It really is extraordinary. Nobody – not even swivel-eyed eurosceptics like me – could have guessed how well Brexit would pan out."

    Perhaps someone should explain to him - we have not Brexited yet. We are still in the EU. If he cannot even get that basic bit right then there is not much point in reading the rest of the article
  • scotslassscotslass Posts: 912
    Carlotta

    Salmond decided the franchise in 2014 as Sturgeon will for 2018. It will be the same 16-17 year olds in and European Citizens.It will be the same franchise as elected the Parliament which is about to vote for the referendum.

    If Cameron had taken Salmond's advice and included these groups last June he would still be Prime Minister!!!
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    edited February 2017
    Beverley_C said:

    scotslass said:

    I think Ms Sturgeon is about to push the referendum button and May will come to regret beaking the promise she made last July to formulate an agreed UK position backed by Scotland.

    Popcorn on standby....

    Or May will approve IndyRef2 for 2021 and let the Scots try and make the running that its not soon enough, not on the whole a winning position when sensible people understand there is a BrExit negotiation to happen first.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    Jobabob said:

    SeanT said:

    Beverley_C said:

    scotslass said:

    I think Ms Sturgeon is about to push the referendum button and May will come to regret beaking the promise she made last July to formulate an agreed UK position backed by Scotland.

    Popcorn on standby....

    But Sturgeon doesn't want to push the button. She wants to make it look likeshe is about to push the button any minute now, any minute, a few more seconds, here we go, look, she's about to push it, here we gooooooooo - thus provoking TMay into saying there can be no indyref2 until Brexit is completed. And Westminster has the final say on this.

    Thus Sturgeon avoids a vote she would likely lose (not one poll has YES ahead, even now), and gets to stoke the fires of Scots grievance for a swift vote post-Brexit.

    However Sturgeon might go so far in her brinkmanship that she HAS to call a plebiscite or risk a huge war within her own ranks. A dangerous game for all.
    Your optimism somewhat undermined by the fact that the SNP are great campaigners and made up 20pts in the heat of the last independence campaign. (Salmond was miles behind at the start). Now they are 2pts behind, on the latest polling.

    Meantime, unionist continue to play into Wee Nicky's hands by being desperate for the EU to reject Scotland and advancing ludicrous scare stories about border patrol boats on the Tweed (but not, for some reason, on the Foyle).

    Sober up before you post on this topic again.
    1. Three years' less oil.
    2. Oil half the price it was in 2014.
    3. The currency question hasn't gone away. EU membership = Euro. Especially so as Scotland hasn't a currency of its own.
    4. rUK leaving the EU means no guaranteed freedom of movement to England and the genuine risk of a hard border at Berwick.

    Seant is right. She's bluffing. The risk is that someone calls that bluff so openly that she feels obliged to demand a vote all the same.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Jobabob said:

    SeanT said:

    Beverley_C said:

    scotslass said:

    I think Ms Sturgeon is about to push the referendum button and May will come to regret beaking the promise she made last July to formulate an agreed UK position backed by Scotland.

    Popcorn on standby....

    But Sturgeon doesn't want to push the button. She wants to make it look likeshe is about to push the button any minute now, any minute, a few more seconds, here we go, look, she's about to push it, here we gooooooooo - thus provoking TMay into saying there can be no indyref2 until Brexit is completed. And Westminster has the final say on this.

    Thus Sturgeon avoids a vote she would likely lose (not one poll has YES ahead, even now), and gets to stoke the fires of Scots grievance for a swift vote post-Brexit.

    However Sturgeon might go so far in her brinkmanship that she HAS to call a plebiscite or risk a huge war within her own ranks. A dangerous game for all.
    Your optimism somewhat undermined by the fact that the SNP are great campaigners and made up 20pts in the heat of the last independence campaign. (Salmond was miles behind at the start). Now they are 2pts behind, on the latest polling.

    Meantime, unionist continue to play into Wee Nicky's hands by being desperate for the EU to reject Scotland and advancing ludicrous scare stories about border patrol boats on the Tweed (but not, for some reason, on the Foyle).

    Sober up before you post on this topic again.
    They lost the last referendum because of 'Currency' - what's the answer this time?
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    This would be fantastic if it came off

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/02/13/land-rover-defender-lives-billionaire-owner-ineos-plots-new/
  • theakestheakes Posts: 967
    David Herdson: yes but they are up against two pretty good machines working at ground level, Labour and the Lib Dems. This does count. UKIPs effort appears somewhat ameteurish by comparison.Labour would have had a data base to start with. So all they need is to go back to those on that base.
    The electoral results over the last 12 months, their opinion poll ratings dropping makes me suspect they could well finish third with a lower % vote than last time. There is very little evidence yet of previous Conseravtive voters in the seat backing them, apparently there are cases of Conservative voters refusing their leaflets!.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    scotslass said:

    Carlotta

    Salmond decided the franchise in 2014 as Sturgeon will for 2018. It will be the same 16-17 year olds in and European Citizens.It will be the same franchise as elected the Parliament which is about to vote for the referendum.

    If Cameron had taken Salmond's advice and included these groups last June he would still be Prime Minister!!!

    No.

    The Article 30 agreement delegated that decision to Scotland.

    Who's to say what it will do this time, especially, as Sturgeon never tires of reminding us, circumstances have changed?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,100
    theakes said:

    David Herdson: yes but they are up against two pretty good machines working at ground level, Labour and the Lib Dems. This does count. UKIPs effort appears somewhat ameteurish by comparison.Labour would have had a data base to start with. So all they need is to go back to those on that base.
    The electoral results over the last 12 months, their opinion poll ratings dropping makes me suspect they could well finish third with a lower % vote than last time. There is very little evidence yet of previous Conseravtive voters in the seat backing them, apparently there are cases of Conservative voters refusing their leaflets!.

    Are you working the seat yourself ?

    If so for which party.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,403
    Beverley_C said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Kavanagh upbeat in The Sun:

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/opinion/2848046/uk-dealt-aces-after-calling-remain-bluff-on-brexit/

    Deluded....

    He starts with "It really is extraordinary. Nobody – not even swivel-eyed eurosceptics like me – could have guessed how well Brexit would pan out."

    Perhaps someone should explain to him - we have not Brexited yet. We are still in the EU. If he cannot even get that basic bit right then there is not much point in reading the rest of the article
    I skimmed through it. The gist is that Trump loves us so everything's hunky-dory.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Beverley_C said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Kavanagh upbeat in The Sun:

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/opinion/2848046/uk-dealt-aces-after-calling-remain-bluff-on-brexit/

    Deluded....
    And how may people do you think will read Trevor, and how many will read Polly?
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Stark_Dawning said:

    Beverley_C said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Kavanagh upbeat in The Sun:

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/opinion/2848046/uk-dealt-aces-after-calling-remain-bluff-on-brexit/

    Deluded....

    He starts with "It really is extraordinary. Nobody – not even swivel-eyed eurosceptics like me – could have guessed how well Brexit would pan out."

    Perhaps someone should explain to him - we have not Brexited yet. We are still in the EU. If he cannot even get that basic bit right then there is not much point in reading the rest of the article
    I skimmed through it. The gist is that Trump loves us so everything's hunky-dory.
    I skimmed it too - just on the off-chance it might improve in quality further down... it didn't. :(
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Slackbladder said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ‪Bercow toast ?‬

    https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/831116967826251777

    He's looking more and more shakey. I expect he would 'win' any vote on numbers, but surely if enough people don't have faith in him he should step down.
    Mrs Thatcher won the 1st vote in the Tory Leadership campaign - and then resigned. But Bercow won't resign when he wins the vote. People of his political persuasion never do.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,388
    I think Labour could recover some votes when Jezza goes. However, it's very much a habit thing. I felt strange when I voted LD for the first time in the late nineties. But once the habit is lost, it's much easier the second time round.

    Still, there's always another group of 18-year-olds coming up to vote on twitter.
  • scotslassscotslass Posts: 912
    And on the plus side for indy - a magnificent seven

    1) Referendum economics will be fought on trade and Scots will get single market guarantee from Brussels. The UK will be in limbo
    2) The SNP holds all but three of the MPs - last time they were on six!
    3) They are polling above 50 per cent
    4) Independence is polling 49. Salmond pushed the button at 28!
    5) May has clearly broken her July 2016 promise for "an agreed UK position backed by Scotland" as The Telegraph reported it.
    6) The big cities will all fall to the Nats in May - last time they were in Labour hands.
    7) Dr Who has switched from No to Yes!

    Sturgeon is about to light the taratan touch paper.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,258
    Jobabob said:

    SeanT said:

    Beverley_C said:

    scotslass said:

    I think Ms Sturgeon is about to push the referendum button and May will come to regret beaking the promise she made last July to formulate an agreed UK position backed by Scotland.

    Popcorn on standby....

    But Sturgeon doesn't want to push the button. She wants to make it look likeshe is about to push the button any minute now, any minute, a few more seconds, here we go, look, she's about to push it, here we gooooooooo - thus provoking TMay into saying there can be no indyref2 until Brexit is completed. And Westminster has the final say on this.

    Thus Sturgeon avoids a vote she would likely lose (not one poll has YES ahead, even now), and gets to stoke the fires of Scots grievance for a swift vote post-Brexit.

    However Sturgeon might go so far in her brinkmanship that she HAS to call a plebiscite or risk a huge war within her own ranks. A dangerous game for all.
    Your optimism somewhat undermined by the fact that the SNP are great campaigners and made up 20pts in the heat of the last independence campaign. (Salmond was miles behind at the start). Now they are 2pts behind, on the latest polling.

    Meantime, unionist continue to play into Wee Nicky's hands by being desperate for the EU to reject Scotland and advancing ludicrous scare stories about border patrol boats on the Tweed (but not, for some reason, on the Foyle).

    Sober up before you post on this topic again.
    All the polls show No still ahead but if Yes do win of course there will be border patrols on the English Scottish border to control free movement of workers from the rest of the EEA (matched by tougher controls on Irish visitors to the mainland) and there will inevitably be customs duties on Scottish exports to the UK too given after the UK leaves the Single Market some customs duties will inevitably be imposed on EEA exports to the UK and visa versa
  • scotslassscotslass Posts: 912
    Also Bercow will survive - Charles Moore is against him.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    theakes said:

    David Herdson: yes but they are up against two pretty good machines working at ground level, Labour and the Lib Dems. This does count. UKIPs effort appears somewhat ameteurish by comparison.Labour would have had a data base to start with. So all they need is to go back to those on that base.
    The electoral results over the last 12 months, their opinion poll ratings dropping makes me suspect they could well finish third with a lower % vote than last time. There is very little evidence yet of previous Conseravtive voters in the seat backing them, apparently there are cases of Conservative voters refusing their leaflets!.

    I wouldn't bank on Labour having canvass data. There are instances in the past in safe Labour seats where this hasn't been the case.

    UKIP do best in PR elections across big constituencies, where targetting is impossible. Even so, while I agree with you that the Conservatives won't make much running this time in Stoke, I wouldn't rule UKIP out simply on the basis of the stats in Mike's header. Campaigns can only take a party so far (one reason I expect the LDs to do reasonably well is that I don't expect them to be the target of much negative campaigning. Obviously, if they do start posing a more serious threat to Labour, that party will respond).
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    The regional breakdowns make for sobering reading too:

    Con lead vs Lab:
    London: -3
    RoS: +33
    Mid/Wales: +12
    North: +5
    Scot: +9

    Mind you, given a fair chunk of Labour members (accounts differ, some report nearly half) live within the M25, they may not be 'feeling' it so much.....
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    SeanT said:

    Jobabob said:

    SeanT said:

    Beverley_C said:

    scotslass said:

    I think Ms Sturgeon is about to push the referendum button and May will come to regret beaking the promise she made last July to formulate an agreed UK position backed by Scotland.

    Popcorn on standby....

    But Sturgeon doesn't want to push the button. She wants to make it look likeshe is about to push the button any minute now, any minute, a few more seconds, here we go, look, she's about to push it, here we gooooooooo - thus provoking TMay into saying there can be no indyref2 until Brexit is completed. And Westminster has the final say on this.

    Thus Sturgeon avoids a vote she would likely lose (not one poll has YES ahead, even now), and gets to stoke the fires of Scots grievance for a swift vote post-Brexit.

    However Sturgeon might go so far in her brinkmanship that she HAS to call a plebiscite or risk a huge war within her own ranks. A dangerous game for all.
    Your optimism somewhat undermined by the fact that the SNP are great campaigners and made up 20pts in the heat of the last independence campaign. (Salmond was miles behind at the start). Now they are 2pts behind, on the latest polling.

    Meantime, unionist continue to play into Wee Nicky's hands by being desperate for the EU to reject Scotland and advancing ludicrous scare stories about border patrol boats on the Tweed (but not, for some reason, on the Foyle).

    Sober up before you post on this topic again.
    alo
    I'm in England, it's 10 to 1, and I've had brunch comprising smoked salmon on sourdough, with a cup of string tea.

    Also, fuck off, you shit-for-brains Remain-voting nipple-headed cuckold.
    Then it is possibly mercury poisoning, from the salmon. You have worried me though because I am having similar, for my lunch today. Get well soon.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,317
    Jobabob said:

    SeanT said:

    fpt

    All these arguments about the "right" levels of immigration into the UK, are like arguments about the "best" use and disposal of horse manure in London streets, in about 1890


    So you are comparing people to faeces now?

    Drink some coffee and dry out man.
    Don't worry he's leaving. Apparently.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,165
    scotslass said:

    Carlotta

    Salmond decided the franchise in 2014 as Sturgeon will for 2018. It will be the same 16-17 year olds in and European Citizens.It will be the same franchise as elected the Parliament which is about to vote for the referendum.

    If Cameron had taken Salmond's advice and included these groups last June he would still be Prime Minister!!!

    You must understand the riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma that is Brexityoon logic.

    Sturgeon is bluffing because no one wants Indy ref II and she would definitely lose, but May should block it anyway, however just in case the franchise should be withdrawn from 16-17 year olds & EU nationals, and the winning threshold for Yes should be raised to 60%.

    I think that covers their current position(s).
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    scotslass said:

    Sturgeon is about to light the taratan touch paper.

    So, what's the currency?
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited February 2017
    CarlottaVance said:

    Beverley_C said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Kavanagh upbeat in The Sun:

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/opinion/2848046/uk-dealt-aces-after-calling-remain-bluff-on-brexit/

    Deluded....
    And how may people do you think will read Trevor, and how many will read Polly?
    I have no idea. As far as I can see, most "newspapers" these days are little more than poor quality loo-roll or expensive firelighters
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,983
    Mortimer said:

    UKIP unlikely to gain Stoke, despite what I've been saying for several weeks.

    Corrected for you

    Even though Labour have selected a complete Blairite dud
  • glwglw Posts: 10,511
    CarlottaVance said:

    scotslass said:

    Sturgeon is about to light the taratan touch paper.

    So, what's the currency?
    The Euro. That's the only one that makes any sense, unless they really are mad and intend to use the pound without any BoE support for Scottish banks.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Considering C2DEs are supposed to be Labour's "core vote" this just shows how much has gone wrong.

    I wonder what proportion of the ABC1s who are going for Labour are public sector employees.

    Labour has gone from being the party of what was once called the working class, to the party of those on the nation's payroll.

    CLAPS
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,294
    edited February 2017
    SeanT said:


    I'm in England, it's 10 to 1, and I've had brunch comprising smoked salmon on sourdough, with a cup of string tea.

    Also, fuck off, you shit-for-brains Remain-voting nipple-headed cuckold.

    For me, pate on sourdough with caramelised onion marmalade and a decent coffee.

    I'm saving the smoked salmon, prawns and avocado for the Harrods bread this evening.

  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    CarlottaVance said:

    scotslass said:

    Sturgeon is about to light the taratan touch paper.

    So, what's the currency?
    It won't be the euro, for sure. The last thing the Eurozone needs is a cold water Greece on it's hands.
  • scotslassscotslass Posts: 912
    HYUFD

    So let us see then

    England third , fourth and fifth export markets are in substantial doubt - Germany Netherlands and France in that order.

    USA is no one and no amount of obsequious fawning to Trump will secure a deal - at least not one without hormones.

    So your case is that there will be a hard border erected against Engalnd's no 2 export market which is Scotland - while a frictionless border is promised for the Foyle!

    Good luck with that "argument"!
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    CD13 said:

    Mr Eagles

    "Here's the VI of the 65 year olds and over."

    Speaking as one of that group, isn't it time Jezza grew up?

    We remember what Labour used to represent. The extremists were just the young firebrands, kept away from the knives and forks, and the reins of power, by the grown-ups. Now they lead the party. Chuck in the metropolitan luvvies and you're a recipe for electoral disaster.

    +1
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    CarlottaVance said:

    Jobabob said:

    SeanT said:

    Beverley_C said:

    scotslass said:

    I think Ms Sturgeon is about to push the referendum button and May will come to regret beaking the promise she made last July to formulate an agreed UK position backed by Scotland.

    Popcorn on standby....

    But Sturgeon doesn't want to push the button. She wants to make it look likeshe is about to push the button any minute now, any minute, a few more seconds, here we go, look, she's about to push it, here we gooooooooo - thus provoking TMay into saying there can be no indyref2 until Brexit is completed. And Westminster has the final say on this.

    Thus Sturgeon avoids a vote she would likely lose (not one poll has YES ahead, even now), and gets to stoke the fires of Scots grievance for a swift vote post-Brexit.

    However Sturgeon might go so far in her brinkmanship that she HAS to call a plebiscite or risk a huge war within her own ranks. A dangerous game for all.
    Your optimism somewhat undermined by the fact that the SNP are great campaigners and made up 20pts in the heat of the last independence campaign. (Salmond was miles behind at the start). Now they are 2pts behind, on the latest polling.

    Meantime, unionist continue to play into Wee Nicky's hands by being desperate for the EU to reject Scotland and advancing ludicrous scare stories about border patrol boats on the Tweed (but not, for some reason, on the Foyle).

    Sober up before you post on this topic again.
    They lost the last referendum because of 'Currency' - what's the answer this time?
    A Scottish pound pegged to Sterling.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,537
    I know recent years labour have hired some second rate tribute acts (cough cough Elvis), but it seems in stoke they have selected a Donald trump tribute. Given the vox pops the other week, perhaps they have selected the right candidate after all.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Theuniondivvie said:

    scotslass said:

    Carlotta

    Salmond decided the franchise in 2014 as Sturgeon will for 2018. It will be the same 16-17 year olds in and European Citizens.It will be the same franchise as elected the Parliament which is about to vote for the referendum.

    If Cameron had taken Salmond's advice and included these groups last June he would still be Prime Minister!!!

    You must understand the riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma that is Brexityoon logic.

    Sturgeon is bluffing because no one wants Indy ref II and she would definitely lose, but May should block it anyway, however just in case the franchise should be withdrawn from 16-17 year olds & EU nationals, and the winning threshold for Yes should be raised to 60%.

    I think that covers their current position(s).
    You forgot about border patrol boats on the Tweed but not on the Foyle. A personal favourite of mine.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    bigjohnowls said:

    Mortimer said:

    UKIP unlikely to gain Stoke, despite what I've been saying for several weeks.

    Corrected for you

    Even though Labour have selected a complete Blairite dud
    You're spinning like Mandelson.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    SeanT said:

    Jobabob said:

    SeanT said:

    fpt

    All these arguments about the "right" levels of immigration into the UK, are like arguments about the "best" use and disposal of horse manure in London streets, in about 1890


    So you are comparing people to faeces now?

    Drink some coffee and dry out man.
    Oh grow up. The comparison was metaphorical. Not literal. Horses were considered a big issue in London in the 1890s. We needed room for stables, liveries, mews, there was the problem of manure, where to put all the ancillary industries - tanneries, farriers, etc.

    Then came the internal combustion engine, and within two decades horses, and all the positives and negatives of their presence, were rendered entirely and laughably irrelevant.

    We are arguing about immigration like it is something we must have or die. It would have felt the same vis-a-vis horse-drawn traffic in the late Victorian era.

    But the truth is we are facing a period of rapid automation and robotisation where the problem is going to be too MANY people and workers, and not enough jobs.

    Take, for instance (if your tiny brain can bear the weight of the concept) the future of drivers. How many pro drivers work in and around London? 50,000? 200,000? More? In ten years time likely ALL those jobs will be gone.


    Importantly, immigration from different cultures isn't something that goes away like obsolete tech - it changes the fundamental shape of society.

    This is an entirely different change from buying ice from icebergs, instead of getting a fridge
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,258
    scotslass said:

    HYUFD

    So let us see then

    England third , fourth and fifth export markets are in substantial doubt - Germany Netherlands and France in that order.

    USA is no one and no amount of obsequious fawning to Trump will secure a deal - at least not one without hormones.

    So your case is that there will be a hard border erected against Engalnd's no 2 export market which is Scotland - while a frictionless border is promised for the Foyle!

    Good luck with that "argument"!

    The UK now sends a majority of its exports outside the EU, it can survive leaving the EEA to control free movement, Scotland sends most of its exports to the rest of the UK, Scexit would therefore be even tougher than Brexit
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,100
    If iScotland wishes to enter the EU, then they will have to adopt the Euro.

    The fiscal rules will be tight, but I think John Swinney will perhaps be able to cook up a deal with either Ruth Davidson or Wee Willie Winkie to get economically prudent budgets through Holyrood.
    I expect the current cosy relationship between the SNP and the Greens will sour rapidly if iScotland was ever heading into the EU with the necessary fiscal responsibility to meet deficit rules...

    Covered all the relevant parties in Scotland there I think.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    SeanT said:

    Jobabob said:

    SeanT said:

    fpt

    All these arguments about the "right" levels of immigration into the UK, are like arguments about the "best" use and disposal of horse manure in London streets, in about 1890


    So you are comparing people to faeces now?

    Drink some coffee and dry out man.
    Oh grow up. The comparison was metaphorical. Not literal. Horses were considered a big issue in London in the 1890s. We needed room for stables, liveries, mews, there was the problem of manure, where to put all the ancillary industries - tanneries, farriers, etc.

    Then came the internal combustion engine, and within two decades horses, and all the positives and negatives of their presence, were rendered entirely and laughably irrelevant.

    We are arguing about immigration like it is something we must have or die. It would have felt the same vis-a-vis horse-drawn traffic in the late Victorian era.

    But the truth is we are facing a period of rapid automation and robotisation where the problem is going to be too MANY people and workers, and not enough jobs.

    Take, for instance (if your tiny brain can bear the weight of the concept) the future of drivers. How many pro drivers work in and around London? 50,000? 200,000? More? In ten years time likely ALL those jobs will be gone.


    If this was your meaning, then I apologise.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,165
    Jobabob said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    scotslass said:

    Carlotta

    Salmond decided the franchise in 2014 as Sturgeon will for 2018. It will be the same 16-17 year olds in and European Citizens.It will be the same franchise as elected the Parliament which is about to vote for the referendum.

    If Cameron had taken Salmond's advice and included these groups last June he would still be Prime Minister!!!

    You must understand the riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma that is Brexityoon logic.

    Sturgeon is bluffing because no one wants Indy ref II and she would definitely lose, but May should block it anyway, however just in case the franchise should be withdrawn from 16-17 year olds & EU nationals, and the winning threshold for Yes should be raised to 60%.

    I think that covers their current position(s).
    You forgot about border patrol boats on the Tweed but not on the Foyle. A personal favourite of mine.
    True.
    I like the fact that they're still recycling IF YOU VOTE YES YOU WILL BE OUT OF THE EU!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,258
    SeanT said:

    Jobabob said:

    SeanT said:

    fpt

    All these arguments about the "right" levels of immigration into the UK, are like arguments about the "best" use and disposal of horse manure in London streets, in about 1890


    So you are comparing people to faeces now?

    Drink some coffee and dry out man.
    Oh grow up. The comparison was metaphorical. Not literal. Horses were considered a big issue in London in the 1890s. We needed room for stables, liveries, mews, there was the problem of manure, where to put all the ancillary industries - tanneries, farriers, etc.

    Then came the internal combustion engine, and within two decades horses, and all the positives and negatives of their presence, were rendered entirely and laughably irrelevant.

    We are arguing about immigration like it is something we must have or die. It would have felt the same vis-a-vis horse-drawn traffic in the late Victorian era.

    But the truth is we are facing a period of rapid automation and robotisation where the problem is going to be too MANY people and workers, and not enough jobs.

    Take, for instance (if your tiny brain can bear the weight of the concept) the future of drivers. How many pro drivers work in and around London? 50,000? 200,000? More? In ten years time likely ALL those jobs will be gone.


    A universal basic income and retraining funded by a tax on robots is the inevitable result of automation
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited February 2017
    glw said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    scotslass said:

    Sturgeon is about to light the taratan touch paper.

    So, what's the currency?
    The Euro. That's the only one that makes any sense, unless they really are mad and intend to use the pound without any BoE support for Scottish banks.
    They can't adopt the Euro without first having their own currency and going through the stages of Economic and Monetary Union. One of those is a deficit of less than 3%. Even with the help of those creative people at Goldman Sachs, they'd be miles off that target.

    A further problem is that a Scottish Pound would probably be a very weak currency. Pegging it to the pound would simply invite speculators to try to break the peg (a one-way bet). The speculators would win.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euro_convergence_criteria
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,165
    Pulpstar said:

    If iScotland wishes to enter the EU, then they will have to adopt the Euro.

    The fiscal rules will be tight, but I think John Swinney will perhaps be able to cook up a deal with either Ruth Davidson or Wee Willie Winkie to get economically prudent budgets through Holyrood.
    I expect the current cosy relationship between the SNP and the Greens will sour rapidly if iScotland was ever heading into the EU with the necessary fiscal responsibility to meet deficit rules...

    Covered all the relevant parties in Scotland there I think.

    SLablessly bitchy!
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,310
    SeanT said:

    There was a very telling remark by an "unnamed" Labour shadow minister the other day (I forget where, I was drunk in Bangkok) which said Labour was in danger of becoming the party of NHS workers and Muslims.

    And he was serious.

    That's unfair. You need to add a lot of teachers and social workers to that mix as well.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 26,052
    Jobabob said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    scotslass said:

    Carlotta

    Salmond decided the franchise in 2014 as Sturgeon will for 2018. It will be the same 16-17 year olds in and European Citizens.It will be the same franchise as elected the Parliament which is about to vote for the referendum.

    If Cameron had taken Salmond's advice and included these groups last June he would still be Prime Minister!!!

    You must understand the riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma that is Brexityoon logic.

    Sturgeon is bluffing because no one wants Indy ref II and she would definitely lose, but May should block it anyway, however just in case the franchise should be withdrawn from 16-17 year olds & EU nationals, and the winning threshold for Yes should be raised to 60%.

    I think that covers their current position(s).
    You forgot about border patrol boats on the Tweed but not on the Foyle. A personal favourite of mine.
    Simple

    The Irish are delightful people youd want to welcome

    Scots are nutjobs
  • glwglw Posts: 10,511
    edited February 2017
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    glw said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    scotslass said:

    Sturgeon is about to light the taratan touch paper.

    So, what's the currency?
    The Euro. That's the only one that makes any sense, unless they really are mad and intend to use the pound without any BoE support for Scottish banks.
    They can't adopt the Euro without first having their own currency and going through the stages of Economic and Monetary Union. One of those is a deficit of less than 3%. Even with the help of those creative people at Goldman Sachs, they'd be miles off that target.

    A further problem is that a Scottish Pound would probably be a very weak currency. Pegging it to the pound would simply invite speculators to try to break the peg (a one-way bet). The speculators would win.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euro_convergence_criteria
    I know it would be challenging, and that they would likely be forced to do a whole load of things that Nats would hate, but the Euro is the only thing that makes sense long term, unless Scotland builds some huge reserves.

    Basically independent Scotland didn't make sense in 2014 and it's even less sensible now.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    SeanT said:

    Jobabob said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    scotslass said:

    Carlotta

    Salmond decided the franchise in 2014 as Sturgeon will for 2018. It will be the same 16-17 year olds in and European Citizens.It will be the same franchise as elected the Parliament which is about to vote for the referendum.

    If Cameron had taken Salmond's advice and included these groups last June he would still be Prime Minister!!!

    You must understand the riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma that is Brexityoon logic.

    Sturgeon is bluffing because no one wants Indy ref II and she would definitely lose, but May should block it anyway, however just in case the franchise should be withdrawn from 16-17 year olds & EU nationals, and the winning threshold for Yes should be raised to 60%.

    I think that covers their current position(s).
    You forgot about border patrol boats on the Tweed but not on the Foyle. A personal favourite of mine.
    There are going to be some controls on the Foyle. Cameras and the like. The harder border will be across the Irish Sea.

    "The secretary of state for exiting the EU, David Davis, has suggested that the arrangements between Norway and Sweden could be a model to copy, where CCTV cameras equipped for automatic number-plate recognition are in place"

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/feb/11/irelnd-peace-risk-brexit-bertie-ahern

    There will be a harder border, and tariff and non-tariff barriers on the Tweed, if iScotland.
    The relentless logic will be for Eire to exit the EU.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 26,052
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    SeanT said:

    Jobabob said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    scotslass said:

    Carlotta

    Salmond decided the franchise in 2014 as Sturgeon will for 2018. It will be the same 16-17 year olds in and European Citizens.It will be the same franchise as elected the Parliament which is about to vote for the referendum.

    If Cameron had taken Salmond's advice and included these groups last June he would still be Prime Minister!!!

    You must understand the riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma that is Brexityoon logic.

    Sturgeon is bluffing because no one wants Indy ref II and she would definitely lose, but May should block it anyway, however just in case the franchise should be withdrawn from 16-17 year olds & EU nationals, and the winning threshold for Yes should be raised to 60%.

    I think that covers their current position(s).
    You forgot about border patrol boats on the Tweed but not on the Foyle. A personal favourite of mine.
    There are going to be some controls on the Foyle. Cameras and the like. The harder border will be across the Irish Sea.

    "The secretary of state for exiting the EU, David Davis, has suggested that the arrangements between Norway and Sweden could be a model to copy, where CCTV cameras equipped for automatic number-plate recognition are in place"

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/feb/11/irelnd-peace-risk-brexit-bertie-ahern

    There will be a harder border, and tariff and non-tariff barriers on the Tweed, if iScotland.
    The relentless logic will be for Eire to exit the EU.
    does that mean we get our 26 lost counties back ?
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    david_herdson said:

    Jonathan said:

    When Labour is doing badly, it does badly with C2DEs? Well I am shocked.

    It's doing *disproportionately* badly with C2DEs. Labour wasn't behind in that group at the general election. Considering the demographic make-up of the current Tory target seats, that ought to be extremely worrying for Labour.
    Labour's core vote is then young, metropolitan, progressive, ABC1 lefties who don't have a proper job. They're the cast of The Young Ones. Corbyn is Rick 40 years on with a beard.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,537
    edited February 2017
    This 21st Century Socialism stuff seems to be going down well with the nation!

    About as well as Donald trump visit to a mosque that is.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,258
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    SeanT said:

    Jobabob said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    scotslass said:

    Carlotta

    Salmond decided the franchise in 2014 as Sturgeon will for 2018. It will be the same 16-17 year olds in and European Citizens.It will be the same franchise as elected the Parliament which is about to vote for the referendum.

    If Cameron had taken Salmond's advice and included these groups last June he would still be Prime Minister!!!

    You must understand the riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma that is Brexityoon logic.

    Sturgeon is bluffing because no one wants Indy ref II and she would definitely lose, but May should block it anyway, however just in case the franchise should be withdrawn from 16-17 year olds & EU nationals, and the winning threshold for Yes should be raised to 60%.

    I think that covers their current position(s).
    You forgot about border patrol boats on the Tweed but not on the Foyle. A personal favourite of mine.
    There are going to be some controls on the Foyle. Cameras and the like. The harder border will be across the Irish Sea.

    "The secretary of state for exiting the EU, David Davis, has suggested that the arrangements between Norway and Sweden could be a model to copy, where CCTV cameras equipped for automatic number-plate recognition are in place"

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/feb/11/irelnd-peace-risk-brexit-bertie-ahern

    There will be a harder border, and tariff and non-tariff barriers on the Tweed, if iScotland.
    The relentless logic will be for Eire to exit the EU.
    It would be more like a Norway and Sweden relationship but tougher because of free movement controls and Ireland is of course in the EU inner cire as a member of the Eurozone
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Ashley Bullard
    Fascinating map showing the top birth origins amongst US immigrants, US state by US state since 1850. #immigrationban #America https://t.co/EgavBp7RFm
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    theakes said:

    Yes but UKIPs national vote is falling and falling, if you had taken this survey 12-18 months ago UKIPS figure would have been even higher. As usual there is a danger of overating their current danger. Given another 12-18 months where will they be. Their ground operation at Stoke is not so good, their % vote could fall.

    Except the UKIP average VI in most polling is at or above the GE15 level. In fact in recent months they have been slowly climbing again.

    They have only dropped in respect to the pre-referendum period, when many C2DE "conservatives" switched to saying they would vote UKIP which saw them go to the high teens in VI. I wonder how "real" this effect was or if it was a sampling issue.

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,654
    Beverley_C said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    Beverley_C said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Kavanagh upbeat in The Sun:

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/opinion/2848046/uk-dealt-aces-after-calling-remain-bluff-on-brexit/

    Deluded....

    He starts with "It really is extraordinary. Nobody – not even swivel-eyed eurosceptics like me – could have guessed how well Brexit would pan out."

    Perhaps someone should explain to him - we have not Brexited yet. We are still in the EU. If he cannot even get that basic bit right then there is not much point in reading the rest of the article
    I skimmed through it. The gist is that Trump loves us so everything's hunky-dory.
    I skimmed it too - just on the off-chance it might improve in quality further down... it didn't. :(
    Still insisting Trump will be good for trade. Has he not heard any of his speeches? And has he not seen the Donald's record of following through on his promises?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,971
    Jobabob said:



    A Scottish pound pegged to Sterling.

    Which is what they currently have. We exist in a currency union - the English Pound, the Scottish pound, the NI pound, the Manx pound and the pounds of the Bailiwicks.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,873
    "It is quite remarkable that LAB, the party that for generations has been seen as the mouthpiece of the working classes, now finds itself in third place amongst that group."

    It's been many many years since the Labour Party was the mouthpiece of the working classes. For too many years, Labour has told the working classes to STFU because what came out of their mouths was racist, Islamaphobic bile. They have been told what they were supposed to think, how they were to meekly progress towards being progressives.

    And all the while Labour was opening the borders, to "rub the Right's noses in diversity". Turns out they were rubbing their voters' noses in it. Tragically comic.

  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    SeanT said:

    Jobabob said:

    SeanT said:

    fpt

    All these arguments about the "right" levels of immigration into the UK, are like arguments about the "best" use and disposal of horse manure in London streets, in about 1890


    So you are comparing people to faeces now?

    Drink some coffee and dry out man.
    Oh grow up. The comparison was metaphorical. Not literal. Horses were considered a big issue in London in the 1890s. We needed room for stables, liveries, mews, there was the problem of manure, where to put all the ancillary industries - tanneries, farriers, etc.

    Then came the internal combustion engine, and within two decades horses, and all the positives and negatives of their presence, were rendered entirely and laughably irrelevant.

    We are arguing about immigration like it is something we must have or die. It would have felt the same vis-a-vis horse-drawn traffic in the late Victorian era.

    But the truth is we are facing a period of rapid automation and robotisation where the problem is going to be too MANY people and workers, and not enough jobs.

    Take, for instance (if your tiny brain can bear the weight of the concept) the future of drivers. How many pro drivers work in and around London? 50,000? 200,000? More? In ten years time likely ALL those jobs will be gone.


    Not all but many. People like personal service. There's no need for serving staff at the god knows how many coffee shops - they could all be automated - but do people want to get a coffee, even a very good one, from a machine?

    At the bottom end of the market, however, it'll revolutionise things. There aren't any tea ladies any more.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    glw said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    scotslass said:

    Sturgeon is about to light the taratan touch paper.

    So, what's the currency?
    The Euro. That's the only one that makes any sense, unless they really are mad and intend to use the pound without any BoE support for Scottish banks.
    They can't adopt the Euro without first having their own currency and going through the stages of Economic and Monetary Union. One of those is a deficit of less than 3%. Even with the help of those creative people at Goldman Sachs, they'd be miles off that target.

    A further problem is that a Scottish Pound would probably be a very weak currency. Pegging it to the pound would simply invite speculators to try to break the peg (a one-way bet). The speculators would win.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euro_convergence_criteria
    I could see the EU removing the need for ERM2 membership, which a treaty of accession could do, given what would be unique circumstances. I can't see them waving away the 3% rule.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Jobabob said:



    A Scottish pound pegged to Sterling.

    Which is what they currently have. We exist in a currency union - the English Pound, the Scottish pound, the NI pound, the Manx pound and the pounds of the Bailiwicks.
    Quite true.
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