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I do hope people aren't trying to be clever rather than taking 2.5 and laying 2.3

More here in the UKIP house journal, Mills claiming it as "polling"

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/758428/Ukip-Paul-Nuttall-Stoke-Central-by-election

Tissue_Price said:

More here in the UKIP house journal, Mills claiming it as "polling"

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/758428/Ukip-Paul-Nuttall-Stoke-Central-by-election

35/25/10 the front three suggests nonsense

The Express article would suggest it is related to this;

https://twitter.com/labourleave/status/823902883506597889

The candidate for Labour called Snell doesn't have any tweets past last Sep.. maybe deleted pro Remains?

The other three are arch Remainers

MonikerDiCanio said:

Chez Fillon.
http://www.thelocal.fr/20161128/a-closer-look-at-francois-fillons-country-manor

If you read the article you will see that this place is impressive but not very costly. You can get around a two bedroom 80m2 flat in an average neighboorhood of Paris for that price.

Why? because it costs a lot to maintain and because (to put it gently) it is not located in the most attractive part of France.

CarlottaVance said:

So now 1.6 > 2.0?

There were 300k more registered voters for SindyRef and the turnout was higher. Many of the EU citizens living in Scotland would have voted No due to Project Fear about Scotland not being able to join the EU.

Chris_from_Paris said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

Chez Fillon.
http://www.thelocal.fr/20161128/a-closer-look-at-francois-fillons-country-manor

If you read the article you will see that this place is impressive but not very costly. You can get around a two bedroom 80m2 flat in an average neighboorhood of Paris for that price.

Why? because it costs a lot to maintain and because (to put it gently) it is not located in the most attractive part of France.

Indeed, just as you can get a large detached old house in the north or Scotland or Wales for about the same price as a flat in central London

CarlottaVance said:

williamglenn said:

CarlottaVance said:

So now 1.6 > 2.0?

There were 300k more registered voters for SindyRef and the turnout was higher. Many of the EU citizens living in Scotland would have voted No due to Project Fear about Scotland not being able to join the EU.

Doesn't change the fact that 'more people voted to stay in the EU than the UK' is demonstrably false....

It's an alternative fact.

Chris_from_Paris said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

DanSmith said:

Is it possible for him to step down as candidate and be officially replaced?

You're joking right... some sort of allegation of impropriety is practically a qualification requirement. .

This lazy cliché is totally false. Actually one key element in Fillon's message for the primary was that contrary to Sarkozy and Juppé, his name never appeared in a scandal.

@Chris_from_Paris, if you are still around. What short term and long term damage, do you think this could do to Fillon's chances?

rcs1000 said:

Pong said:

Chris_from_Paris said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

Chez Fillon.
http://www.thelocal.fr/20161128/a-closer-look-at-francois-fillons-country-manor

If you read the article you will see that this place is impressive but not very costly. You can get around a two bedroom 80m2 flat in an average neighboorhood of Paris for that price.

Why? because it costs a lot to maintain and because (to put it gently) it is not located in the most attractive part of France.

"The Fillons bought the home in 1984 for €440,000, and it has since been re-valued at €650,000 in 2013"

That's what a healthy property market looks like.

Sadly, we're likely to get from unhealthy to healthy via a nasty plunge in certain property prices.

Alternative prices.

Not obvious that this will do Fillon much harm. It's accepted that French politicians can employ thier spouses, though she does seem to have been jolly well paid. Le Monde, no fan of Fillon's, carries it as a relatively minor story. Betfair punters may be overreacting here.

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

Pong said:

Chris_from_Paris said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

Chez Fillon.
http://www.thelocal.fr/20161128/a-closer-look-at-francois-fillons-country-manor

If you read the article you will see that this place is impressive but not very costly. You can get around a two bedroom 80m2 flat in an average neighboorhood of Paris for that price.

Why? because it costs a lot to maintain and because (to put it gently) it is not located in the most attractive part of France.

"The Fillons bought the home in 1984 for €440,000, and it has since been re-valued at €650,000 in 2013"

That's what a healthy property market looks like.

Sadly, we're likely to get from unhealthy to healthy via a nasty plunge in certain property prices.

Won't get many fiest time buyers and under 50s complaining

Under 50s? I think the median age for owning your first home is - what - 28 or 29? If a bunch of those guys are cast into negative equity, they won't be too pleased.

But, yes, in the long run, a house price correction is necessary. But that won't make it any less painful.

30s now.

If you're heading up the ladder, ceteris paribus a correction is a good thing even if your own home has dipped..

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

Pong said:

Chris_from_Paris said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

Chez Fillon.
http://www.thelocal.fr/20161128/a-closer-look-at-francois-fillons-country-manor

If you read the article you will see that this place is impressive but not very costly. You can get around a two bedroom 80m2 flat in an average neighboorhood of Paris for that price.

Why? because it costs a lot to maintain and because (to put it gently) it is not located in the most attractive part of France.

"The Fillons bought the home in 1984 for €440,000, and it has since been re-valued at €650,000 in 2013"

That's what a healthy property market looks like.

Sadly, we're likely to get from unhealthy to healthy via a nasty plunge in certain property prices.

Won't get many fiest time buyers and under 50s complaining

Under 50s? I think the median age for owning your first home is - what - 28 or 29? If a bunch of those guys are cast into negative equity, they won't be too pleased.

But, yes, in the long run, a house price correction is necessary. But that won't make it any less painful.

Not now it isn't, it is mid thirties and it certainly won't be painful for those who are presently renting with little hope of getting on the housing ladder

NickPalmer said:

Not obvious that this will do Fillon much harm. It's accepted that French politicians can employ thier spouses, though she does seem to have been jolly well paid. Le Monde, no fan of Fillon's, carries it as a relatively minor story. Betfair punters may be overreacting here.

It's currently the most commented upon story on Le Monde despite its low billing. The commentary is extremely hostile.

BudG said:

Chris_from_Paris said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

DanSmith said:

Is it possible for him to step down as candidate and be officially replaced?

You're joking right... some sort of allegation of impropriety is practically a qualification requirement. .

This lazy cliché is totally false. Actually one key element in Fillon's message for the primary was that contrary to Sarkozy and Juppé, his name never appeared in a scandal.

@Chris_from_Paris, if you are still around. What short term and long term damage, do you think this could do to Fillon's chances?

In my opinion, it will cause some damage on the short term, but not enough to threaten his candidacy.

The impact would be much larger if they could actually prove she did not do any work while getting these salaries.
But it will be very difficult, as MPs have total freedom on the way they use their allowance for staffers. The only one who could say he did not receive enough work from her would be Fillon himself...

It will probably linger as a talking point of the left but the national front might want to stay away from th issue: several of their staffers in the european parliament are accused of getting salaries while working only for the national party HQ. And the extended Le Pen family has a well-known habit of employning each other with this kind of staffing allowances (Marine Le Pen's partner Louis Aliot for example was a long-time European parliament staffer).

The other question is whether the press will stick to this story or if they will move on quickly. Fillon is Lucky that we will have on wednesday night the Valls/Hamon debate. If (as expected) the debate is very heated, the press will probably focus on that.

And of course the socialists still have not published results for the primary's first round after the press proved that they published false results on Monday morning.

MonikerDiCanio said:

NickPalmer said:

Not obvious that this will do Fillon much harm. It's accepted that French politicians can employ thier spouses, though she does seem to have been jolly well paid. Le Monde, no fan of Fillon's, carries it as a relatively minor story. Betfair punters may be overreacting here.

It's currently the most commented upon story on Le Monde despite its low billing. The commentary is extremely hostile.

The commentary on Le Monde is always violently hostile towards Fillon.

Most Le Monde readers are clearly opposed to most of Fillon's values and program: they dislike budget cuts, very pro-EU, and strongly dislike catholics (but are very tolerant of any kind of Islam).

Chris_from_Paris said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

NickPalmer said:

Not obvious that this will do Fillon much harm. It's accepted that French politicians can employ thier spouses, though she does seem to have been jolly well paid. Le Monde, no fan of Fillon's, carries it as a relatively minor story. Betfair punters may be overreacting here.

It's currently the most commented upon story on Le Monde despite its low billing. The commentary is extremely hostile.

The commentary on Le Monde is always violently hostile towards Fillon.

Most Le Monde readers are clearly opposed to most of Fillon's values and program: they dislike budget cuts, very pro-EU, and strongly dislike catholics (but are very tolerant of any kind of Islam).

Le Monde readers will almost all have supported Juppe and switched to Macron and mainly be based in Paris, they are the Remoaners and Hillary voters of France

The Voodoo poll on Stoke suits it's commissioner nicely. In a FPTP contest like this ramping Nuttal helps Labour as the incumbent " Stop Nuttal " candidate. On the left many activists and donors will think stopping Nuttal is the priority. The other issue is sucessfully framing the by-election as being about Brexit. None f us knows that's what it will be about yet. Destabilising the Labour Party and starting a bizzare culture war where any Remain voters can never again stand in 400 odd Leave voting seats suits Mills.So Cui Bono from the Voodoo poll ? Labour Leave. Who commissioned it and launched it n the Express. Forgive my cyncism.

As an aside I'm grateful to Labour Leave for the press release. We've been told these campaigns were over and couldn't be held accountable for Referendum Pledges. Nice to see they are still around 7 months after the referendum and still publically campaigning. They'll have a lot of questions to answer in due course.

YellowSubmarine said:

Beer prices rise amid sobering threat of Brexit-related inflation

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/24/beer-prices-rise-brexit-inflation-heineken-carlsberg-carling-budweiser?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

Time to raise interest rates?

Pong said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

Pong said:

Chris_from_Paris said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

Chez Fillon.
http://www.thelocal.fr/20161128/a-closer-look-at-francois-fillons-country-manor

If you read the article you will see that this place is impressive but not very costly. You can get around a two bedroom 80m2 flat in an average neighboorhood of Paris for that price.

Why? because it costs a lot to maintain and because (to put it gently) it is not located in the most attractive part of France.

"The Fillons bought the home in 1984 for €440,000, and it has since been re-valued at €650,000 in 2013"

That's what a healthy property market looks like.

Sadly, we're likely to get from unhealthy to healthy via a nasty plunge in certain property prices.

Won't get many fiest time buyers and under 50s complaining

Under 50s? I think the median age for owning your first home is - what - 28 or 29? If a bunch of those guys are cast into negative equity, they won't be too pleased.

But, yes, in the long run, a house price correction is necessary. But that won't make it any less painful.

It's horrible.

I'm 31 and not in a position to buy (although my POTUS winnings are enough for a deposit ) so a plunge in house prices would be a great thing for me.

Then I think of family and friends my age who are starting families, stretching themselves on 90, 95% LTV mortgages. I don't think they're naive - they're making the rational choice to avoid the crazy chronic insecurity of renting and they're too old/don't have the option/can't face living with parents. And the affordability is fine. And house prices always go up eventually, don't they?

A reduction in property prices to mid-2000 levels would screw their quality of life for a decade. That doesn't make me happy, even if I'd personally benefit.

hmm. I think my "mid-2000's" calculation is wrong for outside of london.

London is where the crunch will happen when it comes.

http://www.economicshelp.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/regional-house-prices-ratio.png

UK HP's at 3x earnings - or down to 5x earnings in london - would screw a lot of recent FTB'ers though.

Pong said:

Pong said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

Pong said:

Chris_from_Paris said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

Chez Fillon.
http://www.thelocal.fr/20161128/a-closer-look-at-francois-fillons-country-manor

If you read the article you will see that this place is impressive but not very costly. You can get around a two bedroom 80m2 flat in an average neighboorhood of Paris for that price.

Why? because it costs a lot to maintain and because (to put it gently) it is not located in the most attractive part of France.

"The Fillons bought the home in 1984 for €440,000, and it has since been re-valued at €650,000 in 2013"

That's what a healthy property market looks like.

Sadly, we're likely to get from unhealthy to healthy via a nasty plunge in certain property prices.

Won't get many fiest time buyers and under 50s complaining

Under 50s? I think the median age for owning your first home is - what - 28 or 29? If a bunch of those guys are cast into negative equity, they won't be too pleased.

But, yes, in the long run, a house price correction is necessary. But that won't make it any less painful.

It's horrible.

I'm 31 and not in a position to buy (although my POTUS winnings are enough for a deposit ) so a plunge in house prices would be a great thing for me.

Then I think of family and friends my age who are starting families, stretching themselves on 90, 95% LTV mortgages. I don't think they're naive - they're making the rational choice to avoid the crazy chronic insecurity of renting and they're too old/don't have the option/can't face living with parents. And the affordability is fine. And house prices always go up eventually, don't they?

A reduction in property prices to mid-2000 levels would screw their quality of life for a decade. That doesn't make me happy, even if I'd personally benefit.

hmm. I think my "mid-2000's" calculation is wrong for outside of london.

London is where the crunch will happen when it comes.

http://www.economicshelp.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/regional-house-prices-ratio.png

UK HP's at 3x earnings - or down to 5x earnings in london - would screw a lot of recent FTB'ers though.

House sales and prices are now suffering in North East of Scotland due to massive job losses in the Oil and Gas industry, not helped by SNP stamp duty policy. And if that wasn't sticking in the boot in hard enough, they are now planning a big councl tax hike in the higher band rates with the hope of then siphoning of that extra income for central Government use in their favoured targeted areas.

williamglenn said:

Anyone betting on the Democrats to bounce back in the mid-terms should watch this.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2017/01/24/dnc_chair_candidate_my_job_is_to_tell_white_people_when_to_shut_their_mouths.html

Oh dear...

How funny would it be if ukip put all their eggs in to Stoke only to come closer to winning in Copeland simply because there was a depressed Labour vote in stoke central due to Hunt?

nunu said:

How funny would it be if ukip put all their eggs in to Stoke only to come closer to winning in Copeland simply because there was a depressed Labour vote in stoke central due to Hunt?

People joke about Hunt depressing the vote, but I'm not sure that's true. In the all-out locals held on the same day Labour actually did ~4% worse than Hunt, and that was despite being the only major party to run a full slate (they got battered by assorted independants).

brokenwheel said:

nunu said:

How funny would it be if ukip put all their eggs in to Stoke only to come closer to winning in Copeland simply because there was a depressed Labour vote in stoke central due to Hunt?

People joke about Hunt depressing the vote, but I'm not sure that's true. In the all-out locals held on the same day Labour actually did ~4% worse than Hunt, and that was despite being the only major party to run a full slate (they got battered by assorted independants).

All the evidence is that people actually like having a 'well known' MP, irrespective of whether he or she reflects the local population or not. I would guess that Hunt's very modest notoriety will if anything have added a few votes.

MonikerDiCanio said:

foxinsoxuk said:

isam said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Tissue_Price said:

Betfair very jumpy at this - just laid UKIP at 2.14
https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/824026514794676224

Yes, laying kippers is usually good value.

Not at 2.76 when they are 2.14

Sure, it is better value now, but was good value at the time.

Nuttall is going to lose.

The Establishment playing silly buggers with the people's expressed will to be rid of the EU means Nuttall will win by a country mile.

I wouldn't bet on it.

It is slightly amusing that the Conservatives are now united on Europe, whilst the terrible splits are in the Labour Party.

When will Labour stop banging on about Europe?

Not like the brazen giant of Greek fame,
With conquering limbs astride from land to land;
Here at our sea-washed, sunset gates shall stand
A mighty woman with a torch, whose flame
Is the imprisoned lightning, and her name
Mother of Exiles. From her beacon-hand
Glows world-wide welcome; her mild eyes command
The air-bridged harbor that twin cities frame.

"Keep, ancient lands, your storied pomp!" cries she
With silent lips. "Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"

No, hang on: don't.

America has a great future behind it.

david_herdson said:

Not like the brazen giant of Greek fame,
With conquering limbs astride from land to land;
Here at our sea-washed, sunset gates shall stand
A mighty woman with a torch, whose flame
Is the imprisoned lightning, and her name
Mother of Exiles. From her beacon-hand
Glows world-wide welcome; her mild eyes command
The air-bridged harbor that twin cities frame.

"Keep, ancient lands, your storied pomp!" cries she
With silent lips. "Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"

No, hang on: don't.

America has a great future behind it.

It's interesting to think of all the great American heroes who were first- or second- generation immigrants.

On the other hand, they wouldn't have had Steve Jobs (father a Muslim Syrian), so that'd have been one advantage to Trump's proctological policy.

Labour losses in Copeland and Stoke would be very good news for the party's long-term future.

Pulpstar said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

Pong said:

Chris_from_Paris said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

Chez Fillon.
http://www.thelocal.fr/20161128/a-closer-look-at-francois-fillons-country-manor

If you read the article you will see that this place is impressive but not very costly. You can get around a two bedroom 80m2 flat in an average neighboorhood of Paris for that price.

Why? because it costs a lot to maintain and because (to put it gently) it is not located in the most attractive part of France.

"The Fillons bought the home in 1984 for €440,000, and it has since been re-valued at €650,000 in 2013"

That's what a healthy property market looks like.

Sadly, we're likely to get from unhealthy to healthy via a nasty plunge in certain property prices.

Won't get many fiest time buyers and under 50s complaining

Under 50s? I think the median age for owning your first home is - what - 28 or 29? If a bunch of those guys are cast into negative equity, they won't be too pleased.

But, yes, in the long run, a house price correction is necessary. But that won't make it any less painful.

30s now.

If you're heading up the ladder, ceteris paribus a correction is a good thing even if your own home has dipped..

That's true if you have no mortgage, as the difference in house prices is what matters.

But. If you have a 80% mortgage, and prices fall 20%, then you have no money for the deposit on your new house.

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

Pong said:

Chris_from_Paris said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

Chez Fillon.
http://www.thelocal.fr/20161128/a-closer-look-at-francois-fillons-country-manor

If you read the article you will see that this place is impressive but not very costly. You can get around a two bedroom 80m2 flat in an average neighboorhood of Paris for that price.

Why? because it costs a lot to maintain and because (to put it gently) it is not located in the most attractive part of France.

"The Fillons bought the home in 1984 for €440,000, and it has since been re-valued at €650,000 in 2013"

That's what a healthy property market looks like.

Sadly, we're likely to get from unhealthy to healthy via a nasty plunge in certain property prices.

Won't get many fiest time buyers and under 50s complaining

Under 50s? I think the median age for owning your first home is - what - 28 or 29? If a bunch of those guys are cast into negative equity, they won't be too pleased.

But, yes, in the long run, a house price correction is necessary. But that won't make it any less painful.

30s now.

If you're heading up the ladder, ceteris paribus a correction is a good thing even if your own home has dipped..

That's true if you have no mortgage, as the difference in house prices is what matters.

But. If you have a 80% mortgage, and prices fall 20%, then you have no money for the deposit on your new house.

There are plenty of us who remember the early 90s. While they're necessary (just like recessions), there's no doubt housing market corrections cause a good deal of misery - my younger sister was financially crippled due to buying at the top of the market.

AlastairMeeks said:

david_herdson said:

Not like the brazen giant of Greek fame,
With conquering limbs astride from land to land;
Here at our sea-washed, sunset gates shall stand
A mighty woman with a torch, whose flame
Is the imprisoned lightning, and her name
Mother of Exiles. From her beacon-hand
Glows world-wide welcome; her mild eyes command
The air-bridged harbor that twin cities frame.

"Keep, ancient lands, your storied pomp!" cries she
With silent lips. "Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"

No, hang on: don't.

America has a great future behind it.

Give me your hungry, your tired, your poor I'll piss on them,
That's what the Statue of Bigotry says
Your poor huddled masses, let's club 'em to death
And get it over with and just dump 'em on the boulevard.

That sounds like Philip Larkin.

Scott_P said:

SouthamObserver said:

Labour losses in Copeland and Stoke would be very good news for the party's long-term future.

Or signal its terminal decline. What is the long-term future in Scotland looking like?

I would expect to see Labour in government in Scotland within five years of independence ;-)

UKIP is a right wing party. It may well begin to win by-elections in traditionally Labour areas, like it has won European elections, but until it tacks left on certain issues it does not have a future beyond being a party of protest. That takes a lot of day-to-day hard work and it involves its members - from the leadership down - changing a wide range of deeply held views. That's what the SNP did. There is no sign that UKIP is doing that yet.

AlastairMeeks said:

Sean_F said:

AlastairMeeks said:

david_herdson said:

Not like the brazen giant of Greek fame,
With conquering limbs astride from land to land;
Here at our sea-washed, sunset gates shall stand
A mighty woman with a torch, whose flame
Is the imprisoned lightning, and her name
Mother of Exiles. From her beacon-hand
Glows world-wide welcome; her mild eyes command
The air-bridged harbor that twin cities frame.

"Keep, ancient lands, your storied pomp!" cries she
With silent lips. "Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"

No, hang on: don't.

America has a great future behind it.

Give me your hungry, your tired, your poor I'll piss on them,
That's what the Statue of Bigotry says
Your poor huddled masses, let's club 'em to death
And get it over with and just dump 'em on the boulevard.

That sounds like Philip Larkin.

Lou Reed.

Great track from a brilliant album. Perhaps his best.

MikeK said:

AlastairMeeks said:

david_herdson said:

Not like the brazen giant of Greek fame,
With conquering limbs astride from land to land;
Here at our sea-washed, sunset gates shall stand
A mighty woman with a torch, whose flame
Is the imprisoned lightning, and her name
Mother of Exiles. From her beacon-hand
Glows world-wide welcome; her mild eyes command
The air-bridged harbor that twin cities frame.

"Keep, ancient lands, your storied pomp!" cries she
With silent lips. "Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"

No, hang on: don't.

America has a great future behind it.

Give me your hungry, your tired, your poor I'll piss on them,
That's what the Statue of Bigotry says
Your poor huddled masses, let's club 'em to death
And get it over with and just dump 'em on the boulevard.

Do me a favour, you tear laden myopics. Didn't the US have Elis Island as a filter, and weren't Jews all but bared from entry during the later years of the 1930's under the great FDR, for fear of a large influx from Nazi Germany?

I was reading about Richard Feynman, one of my scientific heroes. Some of the correspondence about him (when being considered for various academic posts) was breathtakingly antisemitic. This was in the 1950s.

We're in danger of hagiography. The US has often had an uneasy relationship with immigrants, going all the way back to the Know-Nothings.

John_M said:

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

Pong said:

Chris_from_Paris said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

Chez Fillon.
http://www.thelocal.fr/20161128/a-closer-look-at-francois-fillons-country-manor

If you read the article you will see that this place is impressive but not very costly. You can get around a two bedroom 80m2 flat in an average neighboorhood of Paris for that price.

Why? because it costs a lot to maintain and because (to put it gently) it is not located in the most attractive part of France.

"The Fillons bought the home in 1984 for €440,000, and it has since been re-valued at €650,000 in 2013"

That's what a healthy property market looks like.

Sadly, we're likely to get from unhealthy to healthy via a nasty plunge in certain property prices.

Won't get many fiest time buyers and under 50s complaining

Under 50s? I think the median age for owning your first home is - what - 28 or 29? If a bunch of those guys are cast into negative equity, they won't be too pleased.

But, yes, in the long run, a house price correction is necessary. But that won't make it any less painful.

30s now.

If you're heading up the ladder, ceteris paribus a correction is a good thing even if your own home has dipped..

That's true if you have no mortgage, as the difference in house prices is what matters.

But. If you have a 80% mortgage, and prices fall 20%, then you have no money for the deposit on your new house.

There are plenty of us who remember the early 90s. While they're necessary (just like recessions), there's no doubt housing market corrections cause a good deal of misery - my younger sister was financially crippled due to buying at the top of the market.

As I remember it, house price falls most affected outer London suburbs and the inner home counties. Those in inner London fell, but not by much. I remember friends in places like Walthamstow and Chelmsford moving into negative equity, while we in N19 were fine. We did have a fixed rate mortgage of something like 12% though.

John_M said:

MikeK said:

AlastairMeeks said:

david_herdson said:

Not like the brazen giant of Greek fame,
With conquering limbs astride from land to land;
Here at our sea-washed, sunset gates shall stand
A mighty woman with a torch, whose flame
Is the imprisoned lightning, and her name
Mother of Exiles. From her beacon-hand
Glows world-wide welcome; her mild eyes command
The air-bridged harbor that twin cities frame.

"Keep, ancient lands, your storied pomp!" cries she
With silent lips. "Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"

No, hang on: don't.

America has a great future behind it.

Give me your hungry, your tired, your poor I'll piss on them,
That's what the Statue of Bigotry says
Your poor huddled masses, let's club 'em to death
And get it over with and just dump 'em on the boulevard.

Do me a favour, you tear laden myopics. Didn't the US have Elis Island as a filter, and weren't Jews all but bared from entry during the later years of the 1930's under the great FDR, for fear of a large influx from Nazi Germany?

I was reading about Richard Feynman, one of my scientific heroes. Some of the correspondence about him (when being considered for various posts) was breathtakingly antisemitic. This was in the 1950s.

We're in danger of hagiography. The US has often had an uneasy relationship with immigrants, going all the way back to the Know-Nothings.

Reading Stephen Jay Gould writing about the IQ tests used at Ellis Island was a real eye opener.

The right has lost it senses ...
https://twitter.com/adambienkov/status/823900940935774208

SouthamObserver said:

John_M said:

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

Pong said:

Chris_from_Paris said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

Chez Fillon.
http://www.thelocal.fr/20161128/a-closer-look-at-francois-fillons-country-manor

If you read the article you will see that this place is impressive but not very costly. You can get around a two bedroom 80m2 flat in an average neighboorhood of Paris for that price.

Why? because it costs a lot to maintain and because (to put it gently) it is not located in the most attractive part of France.

"The Fillons bought the home in 1984 for €440,000, and it has since been re-valued at €650,000 in 2013"

That's what a healthy property market looks like.

Sadly, we're likely to get from unhealthy to healthy via a nasty plunge in certain property prices.

Won't get many fiest time buyers and under 50s complaining

Under 50s? I think the median age for owning your first home is - what - 28 or 29? If a bunch of those guys are cast into negative equity, they won't be too pleased.

But, yes, in the long run, a house price correction is necessary. But that won't make it any less painful.

30s now.

If you're heading up the ladder, ceteris paribus a correction is a good thing even if your own home has dipped..

That's true if you have no mortgage, as the difference in house prices is what matters.

But. If you have a 80% mortgage, and prices fall 20%, then you have no money for the deposit on your new house.

There are plenty of us who remember the early 90s. While they're necessary (just like recessions), there's no doubt housing market corrections cause a good deal of misery - my younger sister was financially crippled due to buying at the top of the market.

As I remember it, house price falls most affected outer London suburbs and the inner home counties. Those in inner London fell, but not by much. I remember friends in places like Walthamstow and Chelmsford moving into negative equity, while we in N19 were fine. We did have a fixed rate mortgage of something like 12% though.

My sis was in Camberley at the time, and going through a divorce, so was essentially forced to sell and eat a very large loss which wiped her out. Her finances have never really recovered.

I'm really not sure what we can do about London prices. They seem completely unsustainable. My nephew and his husband have just bought a place in Stratford(?) and the amount they paid for what is essentially a two-up, two-down hovel made my eyes pop out a la 'The Mask'.

CarlottaVance said:

MikeK said:

williamglenn said:

Anyone betting on the Democrats to bounce back in the mid-terms should watch this.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2017/01/24/dnc_chair_candidate_my_job_is_to_tell_white_people_when_to_shut_their_mouths.html

I mean do Deplorables have mouths?

Yes, but they tend to have more tattoos than teeth...

two more people who's compassion for others less fortunate for themselves is underwhelming and typifying why the DNC (and Labour) will now never be more than a fringe party.

SouthamObserver said:

The right has lost it senses ...
https://twitter.com/adambienkov/status/823900940935774208

Did they ever have any? The difference now is that they are in charge and have brainwashed the PM.

Haha

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/824160353856684033

SouthamObserver said:

John_M said:

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

Pong said:

Chris_from_Paris said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

Chez Fillon.
http://www.thelocal.fr/20161128/a-closer-look-at-francois-fillons-country-manor

If you read the article you will see that this place is impressive but not very costly. You can get around a two bedroom 80m2 flat in an average neighboorhood of Paris for that price.

Why? because it costs a lot to maintain and because (to put it gently) it is not located in the most attractive part of France.

"The Fillons bought the home in 1984 for €440,000, and it has since been re-valued at €650,000 in 2013"

That's what a healthy property market looks like.

Sadly, we're likely to get from unhealthy to healthy via a nasty plunge in certain property prices.

Won't get many fiest time buyers and under 50s complaining

Under 50s? I think the median age for owning your first home is - what - 28 or 29? If a bunch of those guys are cast into negative equity, they won't be too pleased.

But, yes, in the long run, a house price correction is necessary. But that won't make it any less painful.

30s now.

If you're heading up the ladder, ceteris paribus a correction is a good thing even if your own home has dipped..

That's true if you have no mortgage, as the difference in house prices is what matters.

But. If you have a 80% mortgage, and prices fall 20%, then you have no money for the deposit on your new house.

There are plenty of us who remember the early 90s. While they're necessary (just like recessions), there's no doubt housing market corrections cause a good deal of misery - my younger sister was financially crippled due to buying at the top of the market.

As I remember it, house price falls most affected outer London suburbs and the inner home counties. Those in inner London fell, but not by much. I remember friends in places like Walthamstow and Chelmsford moving into negative equity, while we in N19 were fine. We did have a fixed rate mortgage of something like 12% though.

Inner London is basically competing with the likes of Paris and Manhattan and Brooklyn for buyers though which is not the case with outer London

John_M said:

PlatoSaid said:

John_M said:

MikeK said:

AlastairMeeks said:

david_herdson said:

Not like the brazen giant of Greek fame,
With conquering limbs astride from land to land;
Here at our sea-washed, sunset gates shall stand
A mighty woman with a torch, whose flame
Is the imprisoned lightning, and her name
Mother of Exiles. From her beacon-hand
Glows world-wide welcome; her mild eyes command
The air-bridged harbor that twin cities frame.

"Keep, ancient lands, your storied pomp!" cries she
With silent lips. "Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"

No, hang on: don't.

America has a great future behind it.

Give me your hungry, your tired, your poor I'll piss on them,
That's what the Statue of Bigotry says
Your poor huddled masses, let's club 'em to death
And get it over with and just dump 'em on the boulevard.

Do me a favour, you tear laden myopics. Didn't the US have Elis Island as a filter, and weren't Jews all but bared from entry during the later years of the 1930's under the great FDR, for fear of a large influx from Nazi Germany?

I was reading about Richard Feynman, one of my scientific heroes. Some of the correspondence about him (when being considered for various posts) was breathtakingly antisemitic. This was in the 1950s.

We're in danger of hagiography. The US has often had an uneasy relationship with immigrants, going all the way back to the Know-Nothings.

In my view, the genocide of Native Americans/reservations is revolting.

Quite. The idea that the USA is some kind of shining beacon of hope doesn't bear up under examination. It's a country founded on 'iron and blood', just like all the others.

Condoleeza Rice described the USA as a country with a birth defect - slavery. A defect that still causes huge racial friction 250 years later (and made notably worse over the last 8 years).