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    isamisam Posts: 41,014
    I do hope people aren't trying to be clever rather than taking 2.5 and laying 2.3
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    RobD said:

    The fact a reputable pollster isn't named in that piece is setting off my bullshit detector.

    Was it that, or the 20 point lead? :p
    Nah. In a world where Trump is President anything is possible
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    More here in the UKIP house journal, Mills claiming it as "polling"

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/758428/Ukip-Paul-Nuttall-Stoke-Central-by-election
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    isamisam Posts: 41,014
    FWIW UKIPS polling w Nuttall named last week had them 5 pts behind. Cons a mile back in 3rd
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    isamisam Posts: 41,014

    More here in the UKIP house journal, Mills claiming it as "polling"

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/758428/Ukip-Paul-Nuttall-Stoke-Central-by-election

    35/25/10 the front three suggests nonsense
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited January 2017

    Michael Gove is wasted on the backbenches and twitter

    https://twitter.com/michaelgove/status/824025407284477953

    'Cos you got Gove
    Gove
    Gove on your side
    'Cos you got Gove
    Gove
    Gove on your side

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WhpwwZzUryg
    Last band I saw at Uni were The Thompson Twins. W-A-Y before their pop stuff - they were a sort of community play-along group - they tipped a whole bunch of percussion instruments on stage and invited people to pick them up and have a go.... Eek!
    Love On Your Side should be appearing on the vintage Top of the Pops replays on BBC4 within a few weeks. Currently on 3rd February 1983.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/bbcfour/programmes/schedules/2017/01/26
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    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    The Express article would suggest it is related to this;

    https://twitter.com/labourleave/status/823902883506597889
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,793
    edited January 2017
    @jessbrammar @alexsalmond tells @evanhd that far more people in scotland wanted to stay within Europe than wanted to stay within the UK #newsnight

    What is it with Nats & numbers?

    So now 1.6 > 2.0?
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    isamisam Posts: 41,014
    edited January 2017
    The candidate for Labour called Snell doesn't have any tweets past last Sep.. maybe deleted pro Remains?

    The other three are arch Remainers
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    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited January 2017
    isam said:

    The candidate for Labour called Snell doesn't have any tweets past last Sep.. maybe deleted pro Remains?

    The other three are arch Remainers

    He was the former Newcastle-under-lyme council leader, lost his seat to a Kipper...
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    If you read the article you will see that this place is impressive but not very costly. You can get around a two bedroom 80m2 flat in an average neighboorhood of Paris for that price.

    Why? because it costs a lot to maintain and because (to put it gently) it is not located in the most attractive part of France.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,014
    Why wasn't everyone furiously posting "crossover" then btw?
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,162

    So now 1.6 > 2.0?

    There were 300k more registered voters for SindyRef and the turnout was higher. Many of the EU citizens living in Scotland would have voted No due to Project Fear about Scotland not being able to join the EU.
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    DanSmith said:

    Is it possible for him to step down as candidate and be officially replaced?

    You're joking right... some sort of allegation of impropriety is practically a qualification requirement. .
    This lazy cliché is totally false. Actually one key element in Fillon's message for the primary was that contrary to Sarkozy and Juppé, his name never appeared in a scandal.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,187

    If you read the article you will see that this place is impressive but not very costly. You can get around a two bedroom 80m2 flat in an average neighboorhood of Paris for that price.

    Why? because it costs a lot to maintain and because (to put it gently) it is not located in the most attractive part of France.
    Indeed, just as you can get a large detached old house in the north or Scotland or Wales for about the same price as a flat in central London
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,793

    So now 1.6 > 2.0?

    There were 300k more registered voters for SindyRef and the turnout was higher. Many of the EU citizens living in Scotland would have voted No due to Project Fear about Scotland not being able to join the EU.
    Doesn't change the fact that 'more people voted to stay in the EU than the UK' is demonstrably false....
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,097

    So now 1.6 > 2.0?

    There were 300k more registered voters for SindyRef and the turnout was higher. Many of the EU citizens living in Scotland would have voted No due to Project Fear about Scotland not being able to join the EU.
    Doesn't change the fact that 'more people voted to stay in the EU than the UK' is demonstrably false....
    It's an alternative fact.
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693

    If you read the article you will see that this place is impressive but not very costly. You can get around a two bedroom 80m2 flat in an average neighboorhood of Paris for that price.

    Why? because it costs a lot to maintain and because (to put it gently) it is not located in the most attractive part of France.
    "The Fillons bought the home in 1984 for €440,000, and it has since been re-valued at €650,000 in 2013"

    That's what a healthy property market looks like.
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    BudGBudG Posts: 711

    DanSmith said:

    Is it possible for him to step down as candidate and be officially replaced?

    You're joking right... some sort of allegation of impropriety is practically a qualification requirement. .
    This lazy cliché is totally false. Actually one key element in Fillon's message for the primary was that contrary to Sarkozy and Juppé, his name never appeared in a scandal.
    @Chris_from_Paris, if you are still around. What short term and long term damage, do you think this could do to Fillon's chances?
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,097
    Pong said:

    If you read the article you will see that this place is impressive but not very costly. You can get around a two bedroom 80m2 flat in an average neighboorhood of Paris for that price.

    Why? because it costs a lot to maintain and because (to put it gently) it is not located in the most attractive part of France.
    "The Fillons bought the home in 1984 for €440,000, and it has since been re-valued at €650,000 in 2013"

    That's what a healthy property market looks like.
    Sadly, we're likely to get from unhealthy to healthy via a nasty plunge in certain property prices.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,162
    rcs1000 said:

    Pong said:

    If you read the article you will see that this place is impressive but not very costly. You can get around a two bedroom 80m2 flat in an average neighboorhood of Paris for that price.

    Why? because it costs a lot to maintain and because (to put it gently) it is not located in the most attractive part of France.
    "The Fillons bought the home in 1984 for €440,000, and it has since been re-valued at €650,000 in 2013"

    That's what a healthy property market looks like.
    Sadly, we're likely to get from unhealthy to healthy via a nasty plunge in certain property prices.
    Alternative prices.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,187
    edited January 2017
    rcs1000 said:

    Pong said:

    If you read the article you will see that this place is impressive but not very costly. You can get around a two bedroom 80m2 flat in an average neighboorhood of Paris for that price.

    Why? because it costs a lot to maintain and because (to put it gently) it is not located in the most attractive part of France.
    "The Fillons bought the home in 1984 for €440,000, and it has since been re-valued at €650,000 in 2013"

    That's what a healthy property market looks like.
    Sadly, we're likely to get from unhealthy to healthy via a nasty plunge in certain property prices.
    Won't get many first time buyers and under 50s complaining
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,372
    Not obvious that this will do Fillon much harm. It's accepted that French politicians can employ thier spouses, though she does seem to have been jolly well paid. Le Monde, no fan of Fillon's, carries it as a relatively minor story. Betfair punters may be overreacting here.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,097
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pong said:

    If you read the article you will see that this place is impressive but not very costly. You can get around a two bedroom 80m2 flat in an average neighboorhood of Paris for that price.

    Why? because it costs a lot to maintain and because (to put it gently) it is not located in the most attractive part of France.
    "The Fillons bought the home in 1984 for €440,000, and it has since been re-valued at €650,000 in 2013"

    That's what a healthy property market looks like.
    Sadly, we're likely to get from unhealthy to healthy via a nasty plunge in certain property prices.
    Won't get many fiest time buyers and under 50s complaining
    Under 50s? I think the median age for owning your first home is - what - 28 or 29? If a bunch of those guys are cast into negative equity, they won't be too pleased.

    But, yes, in the long run, a house price correction is necessary. But that won't make it any less painful.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,005
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pong said:

    If you read the article you will see that this place is impressive but not very costly. You can get around a two bedroom 80m2 flat in an average neighboorhood of Paris for that price.

    Why? because it costs a lot to maintain and because (to put it gently) it is not located in the most attractive part of France.
    "The Fillons bought the home in 1984 for €440,000, and it has since been re-valued at €650,000 in 2013"

    That's what a healthy property market looks like.
    Sadly, we're likely to get from unhealthy to healthy via a nasty plunge in certain property prices.
    Won't get many fiest time buyers and under 50s complaining
    Under 50s? I think the median age for owning your first home is - what - 28 or 29? If a bunch of those guys are cast into negative equity, they won't be too pleased.

    But, yes, in the long run, a house price correction is necessary. But that won't make it any less painful.
    30s now.

    If you're heading up the ladder, ceteris paribus a correction is a good thing even if your own home has dipped..
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,035
    What with tonight's Stoke 'poll" and the recent Labour4th in Copeland, someone is playing silly beggars (Labour Leave?) or organising a betting coup imho.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,187
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pong said:

    If you read the article you will see that this place is impressive but not very costly. You can get around a two bedroom 80m2 flat in an average neighboorhood of Paris for that price.

    Why? because it costs a lot to maintain and because (to put it gently) it is not located in the most attractive part of France.
    "The Fillons bought the home in 1984 for €440,000, and it has since been re-valued at €650,000 in 2013"

    That's what a healthy property market looks like.
    Sadly, we're likely to get from unhealthy to healthy via a nasty plunge in certain property prices.
    Won't get many fiest time buyers and under 50s complaining
    Under 50s? I think the median age for owning your first home is - what - 28 or 29? If a bunch of those guys are cast into negative equity, they won't be too pleased.

    But, yes, in the long run, a house price correction is necessary. But that won't make it any less painful.
    Not now it isn't, it is mid thirties and it certainly won't be painful for those who are presently renting with little hope of getting on the housing ladder
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,005
    dixiedean said:

    What with tonight's Stoke 'poll" and the recent Labour4th in Copeland, someone is playing silly beggars (Labour Leave?) or organising a betting coup imho.

    Labour leave trying to push for a Brexity candidate

    Alternative polling if you like.
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    Not obvious that this will do Fillon much harm. It's accepted that French politicians can employ thier spouses, though she does seem to have been jolly well paid. Le Monde, no fan of Fillon's, carries it as a relatively minor story. Betfair punters may be overreacting here.

    It's currently the most commented upon story on Le Monde despite its low billing. The commentary is extremely hostile.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,187

    Not obvious that this will do Fillon much harm. It's accepted that French politicians can employ thier spouses, though she does seem to have been jolly well paid. Le Monde, no fan of Fillon's, carries it as a relatively minor story. Betfair punters may be overreacting here.

    Yes, it is basically the French version of Betsygate
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    BudG said:

    DanSmith said:

    Is it possible for him to step down as candidate and be officially replaced?

    You're joking right... some sort of allegation of impropriety is practically a qualification requirement. .
    This lazy cliché is totally false. Actually one key element in Fillon's message for the primary was that contrary to Sarkozy and Juppé, his name never appeared in a scandal.
    @Chris_from_Paris, if you are still around. What short term and long term damage, do you think this could do to Fillon's chances?
    In my opinion, it will cause some damage on the short term, but not enough to threaten his candidacy.

    The impact would be much larger if they could actually prove she did not do any work while getting these salaries.
    But it will be very difficult, as MPs have total freedom on the way they use their allowance for staffers. The only one who could say he did not receive enough work from her would be Fillon himself...

    It will probably linger as a talking point of the left but the national front might want to stay away from th issue: several of their staffers in the european parliament are accused of getting salaries while working only for the national party HQ. And the extended Le Pen family has a well-known habit of employning each other with this kind of staffing allowances (Marine Le Pen's partner Louis Aliot for example was a long-time European parliament staffer).

    The other question is whether the press will stick to this story or if they will move on quickly. Fillon is Lucky that we will have on wednesday night the Valls/Hamon debate. If (as expected) the debate is very heated, the press will probably focus on that.

    And of course the socialists still have not published results for the primary's first round after the press proved that they published false results on Monday morning.

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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,035
    Pulpstar said:

    dixiedean said:

    What with tonight's Stoke 'poll" and the recent Labour4th in Copeland, someone is playing silly beggars (Labour Leave?) or organising a betting coup imho.

    Labour leave trying to push for a Brexity candidate

    Alternative polling if you like.
    Agreed.
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    Not obvious that this will do Fillon much harm. It's accepted that French politicians can employ thier spouses, though she does seem to have been jolly well paid. Le Monde, no fan of Fillon's, carries it as a relatively minor story. Betfair punters may be overreacting here.

    It's currently the most commented upon story on Le Monde despite its low billing. The commentary is extremely hostile.
    The commentary on Le Monde is always violently hostile towards Fillon.

    Most Le Monde readers are clearly opposed to most of Fillon's values and program: they dislike budget cuts, very pro-EU, and strongly dislike catholics (but are very tolerant of any kind of Islam).
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited January 2017
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pong said:

    If you read the article you will see that this place is impressive but not very costly. You can get around a two bedroom 80m2 flat in an average neighboorhood of Paris for that price.

    Why? because it costs a lot to maintain and because (to put it gently) it is not located in the most attractive part of France.
    "The Fillons bought the home in 1984 for €440,000, and it has since been re-valued at €650,000 in 2013"

    That's what a healthy property market looks like.
    Sadly, we're likely to get from unhealthy to healthy via a nasty plunge in certain property prices.
    Won't get many fiest time buyers and under 50s complaining
    Under 50s? I think the median age for owning your first home is - what - 28 or 29? If a bunch of those guys are cast into negative equity, they won't be too pleased.

    But, yes, in the long run, a house price correction is necessary. But that won't make it any less painful.
    It's horrible.

    I'm 31 and not in a position to buy (although my POTUS winnings are enough for a deposit ;)) so a plunge in house prices would be a great thing for me.

    Then I think of family and friends my age who are starting families, stretching themselves on 90, 95% LTV mortgages. I don't think they're naive - they're making the rational choice to avoid the crazy chronic insecurity of renting and they're too old/don't have the option/can't face living with parents. And the affordability is fine. And house prices always go up eventually, don't they?

    A reduction in property prices to mid-2000 levels would screw their quality of life for a decade. That doesn't make me happy, even if I'd personally benefit.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,187
    edited January 2017

    Not obvious that this will do Fillon much harm. It's accepted that French politicians can employ thier spouses, though she does seem to have been jolly well paid. Le Monde, no fan of Fillon's, carries it as a relatively minor story. Betfair punters may be overreacting here.

    It's currently the most commented upon story on Le Monde despite its low billing. The commentary is extremely hostile.
    The commentary on Le Monde is always violently hostile towards Fillon.

    Most Le Monde readers are clearly opposed to most of Fillon's values and program: they dislike budget cuts, very pro-EU, and strongly dislike catholics (but are very tolerant of any kind of Islam).
    Le Monde readers will almost all have supported Juppe and switched to Macron and mainly be based in Paris, they are the Remoaners and Hillary voters of France
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,005
    Bit of emigration, small interest hike & Bob'd yr uncle.
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    The Voodoo poll on Stoke suits it's commissioner nicely. In a FPTP contest like this ramping Nuttal helps Labour as the incumbent " Stop Nuttal " candidate. On the left many activists and donors will think stopping Nuttal is the priority. The other issue is sucessfully framing the by-election as being about Brexit. None f us knows that's what it will be about yet. Destabilising the Labour Party and starting a bizzare culture war where any Remain voters can never again stand in 400 odd Leave voting seats suits Mills.So Cui Bono from the Voodoo poll ? Labour Leave. Who commissioned it and launched it n the Express. Forgive my cyncism.

    As an aside I'm grateful to Labour Leave for the press release. We've been told these campaigns were over and couldn't be held accountable for Referendum Pledges. Nice to see they are still around 7 months after the referendum and still publically campaigning. They'll have a lot of questions to answer in due course.
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    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
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    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    Isn't it almost a foregone conclusion that strong French Presidential candidates will end up embroiled in some sort of scandal despite their privacy laws?
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited January 2017
    Pong said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pong said:

    If you read the article you will see that this place is impressive but not very costly. You can get around a two bedroom 80m2 flat in an average neighboorhood of Paris for that price.

    Why? because it costs a lot to maintain and because (to put it gently) it is not located in the most attractive part of France.
    "The Fillons bought the home in 1984 for €440,000, and it has since been re-valued at €650,000 in 2013"

    That's what a healthy property market looks like.
    Sadly, we're likely to get from unhealthy to healthy via a nasty plunge in certain property prices.
    Won't get many fiest time buyers and under 50s complaining
    Under 50s? I think the median age for owning your first home is - what - 28 or 29? If a bunch of those guys are cast into negative equity, they won't be too pleased.

    But, yes, in the long run, a house price correction is necessary. But that won't make it any less painful.
    It's horrible.

    I'm 31 and not in a position to buy (although my POTUS winnings are enough for a deposit ;)) so a plunge in house prices would be a great thing for me.

    Then I think of family and friends my age who are starting families, stretching themselves on 90, 95% LTV mortgages. I don't think they're naive - they're making the rational choice to avoid the crazy chronic insecurity of renting and they're too old/don't have the option/can't face living with parents. And the affordability is fine. And house prices always go up eventually, don't they?

    A reduction in property prices to mid-2000 levels would screw their quality of life for a decade. That doesn't make me happy, even if I'd personally benefit.
    hmm. I think my "mid-2000's" calculation is wrong for outside of london.

    London is where the crunch will happen when it comes.

    http://www.economicshelp.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/regional-house-prices-ratio.png

    UK HP's at 3x earnings - or down to 5x earnings in london - would screw a lot of recent FTB'ers though.
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    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Pong said:

    Pong said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pong said:

    If you read the article you will see that this place is impressive but not very costly. You can get around a two bedroom 80m2 flat in an average neighboorhood of Paris for that price.

    Why? because it costs a lot to maintain and because (to put it gently) it is not located in the most attractive part of France.
    "The Fillons bought the home in 1984 for €440,000, and it has since been re-valued at €650,000 in 2013"

    That's what a healthy property market looks like.
    Sadly, we're likely to get from unhealthy to healthy via a nasty plunge in certain property prices.
    Won't get many fiest time buyers and under 50s complaining
    Under 50s? I think the median age for owning your first home is - what - 28 or 29? If a bunch of those guys are cast into negative equity, they won't be too pleased.

    But, yes, in the long run, a house price correction is necessary. But that won't make it any less painful.
    It's horrible.

    I'm 31 and not in a position to buy (although my POTUS winnings are enough for a deposit ;)) so a plunge in house prices would be a great thing for me.

    Then I think of family and friends my age who are starting families, stretching themselves on 90, 95% LTV mortgages. I don't think they're naive - they're making the rational choice to avoid the crazy chronic insecurity of renting and they're too old/don't have the option/can't face living with parents. And the affordability is fine. And house prices always go up eventually, don't they?

    A reduction in property prices to mid-2000 levels would screw their quality of life for a decade. That doesn't make me happy, even if I'd personally benefit.
    hmm. I think my "mid-2000's" calculation is wrong for outside of london.

    London is where the crunch will happen when it comes.

    http://www.economicshelp.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/regional-house-prices-ratio.png

    UK HP's at 3x earnings - or down to 5x earnings in london - would screw a lot of recent FTB'ers though.
    I've just sold my house ten days ago. I felt guilty at the amount we got for it. Way more than it was worth, in my opinion. Looking at that graph, I've been astoundingly fortunate with the timing of my house purchases over the years. The current pricing structure in the south and London commuter belt isn't sustainable.
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    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    Pong said:

    Pong said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pong said:

    If you read the article you will see that this place is impressive but not very costly. You can get around a two bedroom 80m2 flat in an average neighboorhood of Paris for that price.

    Why? because it costs a lot to maintain and because (to put it gently) it is not located in the most attractive part of France.
    "The Fillons bought the home in 1984 for €440,000, and it has since been re-valued at €650,000 in 2013"

    That's what a healthy property market looks like.
    Sadly, we're likely to get from unhealthy to healthy via a nasty plunge in certain property prices.
    Won't get many fiest time buyers and under 50s complaining
    Under 50s? I think the median age for owning your first home is - what - 28 or 29? If a bunch of those guys are cast into negative equity, they won't be too pleased.

    But, yes, in the long run, a house price correction is necessary. But that won't make it any less painful.
    It's horrible.

    I'm 31 and not in a position to buy (although my POTUS winnings are enough for a deposit ;)) so a plunge in house prices would be a great thing for me.

    Then I think of family and friends my age who are starting families, stretching themselves on 90, 95% LTV mortgages. I don't think they're naive - they're making the rational choice to avoid the crazy chronic insecurity of renting and they're too old/don't have the option/can't face living with parents. And the affordability is fine. And house prices always go up eventually, don't they?

    A reduction in property prices to mid-2000 levels would screw their quality of life for a decade. That doesn't make me happy, even if I'd personally benefit.
    hmm. I think my "mid-2000's" calculation is wrong for outside of london.

    London is where the crunch will happen when it comes.

    http://www.economicshelp.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/regional-house-prices-ratio.png

    UK HP's at 3x earnings - or down to 5x earnings in london - would screw a lot of recent FTB'ers though.
    House sales and prices are now suffering in North East of Scotland due to massive job losses in the Oil and Gas industry, not helped by SNP stamp duty policy. And if that wasn't sticking in the boot in hard enough, they are now planning a big councl tax hike in the higher band rates with the hope of then siphoning of that extra income for central Government use in their favoured targeted areas.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,162
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,015
    Oh dear...
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    RobD said:

    Oh dear...
    Even worse for them is the leading candidate is Muslim........
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    edited January 2017
    How funny would it be if ukip put all their eggs in to Stoke only to come closer to winning in Copeland simply because there was a depressed Labour vote in stoke central due to Hunt?
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,793

    So now 1.6 > 2.0?

    There were 300k more registered voters for SindyRef and the turnout was higher. Many of the EU citizens living in Scotland would have voted No due to Project Fear about Scotland not being able to join the EU.
    Citation required.

    The only data I have seen is from Ashcroft which showed the division of the vote amongst those who were born outside the UK (many of whom would have been Irish, Commonwealth or EU citizens) was much less distinctive, with 41% saying they voted Yes

    http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/09/voted-yes-voted/
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    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    nunu said:

    How funny would it be if ukip put all their eggs in to Stoke only to come closer to winning in Copeland simply because there was a depressed Labour vote in stoke central due to Hunt?

    People joke about Hunt depressing the vote, but I'm not sure that's true. In the all-out locals held on the same day Labour actually did ~4% worse than Hunt, and that was despite being the only major party to run a full slate (they got battered by assorted independants).
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,793
    Well, quite:

    Demanding a European settlement for Scotland from a UK Government powerless to deliver one is simply pointless posturing.”

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15042663.Former_SNP_leader_questions_Sturgeon_s__pointless_posturing__on_Brexit
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,512

    nunu said:

    How funny would it be if ukip put all their eggs in to Stoke only to come closer to winning in Copeland simply because there was a depressed Labour vote in stoke central due to Hunt?

    People joke about Hunt depressing the vote, but I'm not sure that's true. In the all-out locals held on the same day Labour actually did ~4% worse than Hunt, and that was despite being the only major party to run a full slate (they got battered by assorted independants).
    All the evidence is that people actually like having a 'well known' MP, irrespective of whether he or she reflects the local population or not. I would guess that Hunt's very modest notoriety will if anything have added a few votes.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited January 2017
    I see Mr Trump has been busy overnight - and executive order for the wall is expected imminently

    "President Trump plans to sign executive orders Wednesday enabling construction of his proposed wall on the U.S.-Mexico border and targeting cities where local leaders refuse to hand over illegal immigrants for deportation, according to White House officials familiar with the decisions.

    The actions, part of a multi-day focus on immigration, are among an array of sweeping and immediate changes to the nation’s immigration system under consideration by the new president. The moves represent Trump’s first effort to deliver on perhaps the signature issue that drove his presidential campaign: his belief that illegal immigration is out of control and threatening the country’s safety and security.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/president-trump-is-planning-to-sign-executive-orders-on-immigration-this-week/2017/01/24/aba22b7a-e287-11e6-a453-19ec4b3d09ba_story.html?postshare=7931485314206025&tid=ss_tw&utm_term=.815da3ca39d8
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    More

    The new Trump directives will also stop most refugees including those from Syria coming to America while vetting processes are reviewed.

    The one exception is religious minorities fleeing persecution - which would apply to Christians fleeing Syria and other Muslim majority countries, according to several congressional aides and immigration experts briefed on the matter.

    In total over the next few days, Trump is expected to:

    Direct federal funds toward the construction of a wall along the southern border
    Target so-called 'sanctuary' cities that decline to prosecute undocumented aliens

    Measures still being finalized and subject to change include:

    A four-month freeze on admission of all refugees
    Grant exceptions to Christians and other minorities fleeing Muslim persecution
    Halt visas to people from Syria, Iraq, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen because the Muslim-majority countries that are 'terror prone'
    The visa bans would last at least 30 days while vetting processes are reviewed
    Stop protecting illegal immigrants who arrived in the US as children from deportation


    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4154332/Trump-ban-immigrants-Syria-6-countries.html#ixzz4WkmJONPd
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited January 2017
    Yesterday I cashed out of France; this morning ... nothing much has happened and Fillon is back as odds-on favourite on Betfair and with the books. Best price is 10/11 with Shadsy.
  • Options
    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,729

    isam said:

    Betfair very jumpy at this - just laid UKIP at 2.14
    https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/824026514794676224

    Yes, laying kippers is usually good value.
    Not at 2.76 when they are 2.14
    Sure, it is better value now, but was good value at the time.

    Nuttall is going to lose.
    The Establishment playing silly buggers with the people's expressed will to be rid of the EU means Nuttall will win by a country mile.
    I wouldn't bet on it.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,686

    Not obvious that this will do Fillon much harm. It's accepted that French politicians can employ thier spouses, though she does seem to have been jolly well paid. Le Monde, no fan of Fillon's, carries it as a relatively minor story. Betfair punters may be overreacting here.

    It's currently the most commented upon story on Le Monde despite its low billing. The commentary is extremely hostile.
    The commentary on Le Monde is always violently hostile towards Fillon.

    Most Le Monde readers are clearly opposed to most of Fillon's values and program: they dislike budget cuts, very pro-EU, and strongly dislike catholics (but are very tolerant of any kind of Islam).
    Strongly dislike Catholics? The French are Catholic, aren't they?
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,686
    It is slightly amusing that the Conservatives are now united on Europe, whilst the terrible splits are in the Labour Party.

    When will Labour stop banging on about Europe?
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,083
    Scrolling down, I came across this and was worried. Then c.icked omn the link and realised it didn’t refer to beer, but fizzy pop.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Scrolling down, I came across this and was worried. Then c.icked omn the link and realised it didn’t refer to beer, but fizzy pop.
    Love the new avatar
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,083
    PlatoSaid said:

    Scrolling down, I came across this and was worried. Then c.icked omn the link and realised it didn’t refer to beer, but fizzy pop.
    Love the new avatar
    Thank you.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,422
    Not like the brazen giant of Greek fame,
    With conquering limbs astride from land to land;
    Here at our sea-washed, sunset gates shall stand
    A mighty woman with a torch, whose flame
    Is the imprisoned lightning, and her name
    Mother of Exiles. From her beacon-hand
    Glows world-wide welcome; her mild eyes command
    The air-bridged harbor that twin cities frame.

    "Keep, ancient lands, your storied pomp!" cries she
    With silent lips. "Give me your tired, your poor,
    Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
    The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
    Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
    I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"


    No, hang on: don't.

    America has a great future behind it.
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Not like the brazen giant of Greek fame,
    With conquering limbs astride from land to land;
    Here at our sea-washed, sunset gates shall stand
    A mighty woman with a torch, whose flame
    Is the imprisoned lightning, and her name
    Mother of Exiles. From her beacon-hand
    Glows world-wide welcome; her mild eyes command
    The air-bridged harbor that twin cities frame.

    "Keep, ancient lands, your storied pomp!" cries she
    With silent lips. "Give me your tired, your poor,
    Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
    The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
    Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
    I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"


    No, hang on: don't.

    America has a great future behind it.

    Nothing lasts forever. Even the Sun goes down.

    I haven't been to the US since 2011 so I've no idea what's happening on the ground, but it seems to have become even more divided than the UK.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,113

    Not like the brazen giant of Greek fame,
    With conquering limbs astride from land to land;
    Here at our sea-washed, sunset gates shall stand
    A mighty woman with a torch, whose flame
    Is the imprisoned lightning, and her name
    Mother of Exiles. From her beacon-hand
    Glows world-wide welcome; her mild eyes command
    The air-bridged harbor that twin cities frame.

    "Keep, ancient lands, your storied pomp!" cries she
    With silent lips. "Give me your tired, your poor,
    Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
    The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
    Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
    I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"


    No, hang on: don't.

    America has a great future behind it.

    It's interesting to think of all the great American heroes who were first- or second- generation immigrants.

    On the other hand, they wouldn't have had Steve Jobs (father a Muslim Syrian), so that'd have been one advantage to Trump's proctological policy. ;)
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Not like the brazen giant of Greek fame,
    With conquering limbs astride from land to land;
    Here at our sea-washed, sunset gates shall stand
    A mighty woman with a torch, whose flame
    Is the imprisoned lightning, and her name
    Mother of Exiles. From her beacon-hand
    Glows world-wide welcome; her mild eyes command
    The air-bridged harbor that twin cities frame.

    "Keep, ancient lands, your storied pomp!" cries she
    With silent lips. "Give me your tired, your poor,
    Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
    The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
    Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
    I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"


    No, hang on: don't.

    America has a great future behind it.

    Give me your hungry, your tired, your poor I'll piss on them,
    That's what the Statue of Bigotry says
    Your poor huddled masses, let's club 'em to death
    And get it over with and just dump 'em on the boulevard.
  • Options
    Labour losses in Copeland and Stoke would be very good news for the party's long-term future.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,686
    The Guardian obviously doesn't know what beer is.
  • Options
    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Next to, "shut your mouth you damned white trash". It's par for the Elites of the Democratic Party. I mean do Deplorables have mouths?
  • Options

    Not like the brazen giant of Greek fame,
    With conquering limbs astride from land to land;
    Here at our sea-washed, sunset gates shall stand
    A mighty woman with a torch, whose flame
    Is the imprisoned lightning, and her name
    Mother of Exiles. From her beacon-hand
    Glows world-wide welcome; her mild eyes command
    The air-bridged harbor that twin cities frame.

    "Keep, ancient lands, your storied pomp!" cries she
    With silent lips. "Give me your tired, your poor,
    Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
    The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
    Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
    I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"


    No, hang on: don't.

    America has a great future behind it.

    It's a country that's almost visibly shrivelling in its ambition and global standing, and against the wishes of the majority of its population, too. You do have to wonder how long it is sustainable. Trump may need a war at some stage quite soon.

    Here's hoping Theresa May understands just how antithetical he is to British interests. At some stage she is going to have to stand up to the swivel-eyed, anti-European Atlanticist right in her party. On a personal level, any kind of trade deal with the US would be brilliant for our business as its our biggest market, but for the country as a whole I fear that what the likes of Fox, Johnson and co would be only to pleased to sign up to would be utterly disastrous.

  • Options
    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    Not like the brazen giant of Greek fame,
    With conquering limbs astride from land to land;
    Here at our sea-washed, sunset gates shall stand
    A mighty woman with a torch, whose flame
    Is the imprisoned lightning, and her name
    Mother of Exiles. From her beacon-hand
    Glows world-wide welcome; her mild eyes command
    The air-bridged harbor that twin cities frame.

    "Keep, ancient lands, your storied pomp!" cries she
    With silent lips. "Give me your tired, your poor,
    Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
    The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
    Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
    I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"


    No, hang on: don't.

    America has a great future behind it.

    Give me your hungry, your tired, your poor I'll piss on them,
    That's what the Statue of Bigotry says
    Your poor huddled masses, let's club 'em to death
    And get it over with and just dump 'em on the boulevard.
    Do me a favour, you tear laden myopics. Didn't the US have Elis Island as a filter, and weren't Jews all but bared from entry during the later years of the 1930's under the great FDR, for fear of a large influx from Nazi Germany?
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Labour losses in Copeland and Stoke would be very good news for the party's long-term future.

    Or signal its terminal decline. What is the long-term future in Scotland looking like?
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,097
    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pong said:

    If you read the article you will see that this place is impressive but not very costly. You can get around a two bedroom 80m2 flat in an average neighboorhood of Paris for that price.

    Why? because it costs a lot to maintain and because (to put it gently) it is not located in the most attractive part of France.
    "The Fillons bought the home in 1984 for €440,000, and it has since been re-valued at €650,000 in 2013"

    That's what a healthy property market looks like.
    Sadly, we're likely to get from unhealthy to healthy via a nasty plunge in certain property prices.
    Won't get many fiest time buyers and under 50s complaining
    Under 50s? I think the median age for owning your first home is - what - 28 or 29? If a bunch of those guys are cast into negative equity, they won't be too pleased.

    But, yes, in the long run, a house price correction is necessary. But that won't make it any less painful.
    30s now.

    If you're heading up the ladder, ceteris paribus a correction is a good thing even if your own home has dipped..
    That's true if you have no mortgage, as the difference in house prices is what matters.

    But. If you have a 80% mortgage, and prices fall 20%, then you have no money for the deposit on your new house.
  • Options
    Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    Test
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pong said:

    If you read the article you will see that this place is impressive but not very costly. You can get around a two bedroom 80m2 flat in an average neighboorhood of Paris for that price.

    Why? because it costs a lot to maintain and because (to put it gently) it is not located in the most attractive part of France.
    "The Fillons bought the home in 1984 for €440,000, and it has since been re-valued at €650,000 in 2013"

    That's what a healthy property market looks like.
    Sadly, we're likely to get from unhealthy to healthy via a nasty plunge in certain property prices.
    Won't get many fiest time buyers and under 50s complaining
    Under 50s? I think the median age for owning your first home is - what - 28 or 29? If a bunch of those guys are cast into negative equity, they won't be too pleased.

    But, yes, in the long run, a house price correction is necessary. But that won't make it any less painful.
    30s now.

    If you're heading up the ladder, ceteris paribus a correction is a good thing even if your own home has dipped..
    That's true if you have no mortgage, as the difference in house prices is what matters.

    But. If you have a 80% mortgage, and prices fall 20%, then you have no money for the deposit on your new house.
    There are plenty of us who remember the early 90s. While they're necessary (just like recessions), there's no doubt housing market corrections cause a good deal of misery - my younger sister was financially crippled due to buying at the top of the market.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,793
    MikeK said:

    I mean do Deplorables have mouths?
    Yes, but they tend to have more tattoos than teeth...
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,005

    Not like the brazen giant of Greek fame,
    With conquering limbs astride from land to land;
    Here at our sea-washed, sunset gates shall stand
    A mighty woman with a torch, whose flame
    Is the imprisoned lightning, and her name
    Mother of Exiles. From her beacon-hand
    Glows world-wide welcome; her mild eyes command
    The air-bridged harbor that twin cities frame.

    "Keep, ancient lands, your storied pomp!" cries she
    With silent lips. "Give me your tired, your poor,
    Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
    The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
    Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
    I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"


    No, hang on: don't.

    America has a great future behind it.

    Give me your hungry, your tired, your poor I'll piss on them,
    That's what the Statue of Bigotry says
    Your poor huddled masses, let's club 'em to death
    And get it over with and just dump 'em on the boulevard.
    That sounds like Philip Larkin.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Sean_F said:

    Not like the brazen giant of Greek fame,
    With conquering limbs astride from land to land;
    Here at our sea-washed, sunset gates shall stand
    A mighty woman with a torch, whose flame
    Is the imprisoned lightning, and her name
    Mother of Exiles. From her beacon-hand
    Glows world-wide welcome; her mild eyes command
    The air-bridged harbor that twin cities frame.

    "Keep, ancient lands, your storied pomp!" cries she
    With silent lips. "Give me your tired, your poor,
    Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
    The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
    Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
    I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"


    No, hang on: don't.

    America has a great future behind it.

    Give me your hungry, your tired, your poor I'll piss on them,
    That's what the Statue of Bigotry says
    Your poor huddled masses, let's club 'em to death
    And get it over with and just dump 'em on the boulevard.
    That sounds like Philip Larkin.
    Lou Reed.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978
    edited January 2017
    Scott_P said:

    Labour losses in Copeland and Stoke would be very good news for the party's long-term future.

    Or signal its terminal decline. What is the long-term future in Scotland looking like?

    I would expect to see Labour in government in Scotland within five years of independence ;-)

    UKIP is a right wing party. It may well begin to win by-elections in traditionally Labour areas, like it has won European elections, but until it tacks left on certain issues it does not have a future beyond being a party of protest. That takes a lot of day-to-day hard work and it involves its members - from the leadership down - changing a wide range of deeply held views. That's what the SNP did. There is no sign that UKIP is doing that yet.

  • Options
    Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    Pong said:

    Pong said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pong said:

    If you read the article you will see that this place is impressive but not very costly. You can get around a two bedroom 80m2 flat in an average neighboorhood of Paris for that price.

    Why? because it costs a lot to maintain and because (to put it gently) it is not located in the most attractive part of France.
    "The Fillons bought the home in 1984 for €440,000, and it has since been re-valued at €650,000 in 2013"

    That's what a healthy property market looks like.
    Sadly, we're likely to get from unhealthy to healthy via a nasty plunge in certain property prices.
    Won't get many fiest time buyers and under 50s complaining
    Under 50s? I think the median age for owning your first home is - what - 28 or 29? If a bunch of those guys are cast into negative equity, they won't be too pleased.

    But, yes, in the long run, a house price correction is necessary. But that won't make it any less painful.
    It's horrible.

    I'm 31 and not in a position to buy (although my POTUS winnings are enough for a deposit ;)) so a plunge in house prices would be a great thing for me.

    Then I think of family and friends my age who are starting families, stretching themselves on 90, 95% LTV mortgages. I don't think they're naive - they're making the rational choice to avoid the crazy chronic insecurity of renting and they're too old/don't have the option/can't face living with parents. And the affordability is fine. And house prices always go up eventually, don't they?

    A reduction in property prices to mid-2000 levels would screw their quality of life for a decade. That doesn't make me happy, even if I'd personally benefit.
    hmm. I think my "mid-2000's" calculation is wrong for outside of london.

    London is where the crunch will happen when it comes.

    http://www.economicshelp.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/regional-house-prices-ratio.png

    UK HP's at 3x earnings - or down to 5x earnings in london - would screw a lot of recent FTB'ers though.
    When I bought our first house the rule of thumb was 2.5X main wage earners salary plus 1X second earners plus a 10% deposit. Doubt if that's possible today
  • Options

    Sean_F said:

    Not like the brazen giant of Greek fame,
    With conquering limbs astride from land to land;
    Here at our sea-washed, sunset gates shall stand
    A mighty woman with a torch, whose flame
    Is the imprisoned lightning, and her name
    Mother of Exiles. From her beacon-hand
    Glows world-wide welcome; her mild eyes command
    The air-bridged harbor that twin cities frame.

    "Keep, ancient lands, your storied pomp!" cries she
    With silent lips. "Give me your tired, your poor,
    Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
    The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
    Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
    I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"


    No, hang on: don't.

    America has a great future behind it.

    Give me your hungry, your tired, your poor I'll piss on them,
    That's what the Statue of Bigotry says
    Your poor huddled masses, let's club 'em to death
    And get it over with and just dump 'em on the boulevard.
    That sounds like Philip Larkin.
    Lou Reed.
    Great track from a brilliant album. Perhaps his best.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978
    edited January 2017
    If we do Hard Brexit and become the offshore tax haven that so many right wingers want then it will surely mean that house prices in London, at least, keep on rising. If anywhere is going to do well out of Brexit it will be London.
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited January 2017
    MikeK said:

    Not like the brazen giant of Greek fame,
    With conquering limbs astride from land to land;
    Here at our sea-washed, sunset gates shall stand
    A mighty woman with a torch, whose flame
    Is the imprisoned lightning, and her name
    Mother of Exiles. From her beacon-hand
    Glows world-wide welcome; her mild eyes command
    The air-bridged harbor that twin cities frame.

    "Keep, ancient lands, your storied pomp!" cries she
    With silent lips. "Give me your tired, your poor,
    Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
    The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
    Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
    I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"


    No, hang on: don't.

    America has a great future behind it.

    Give me your hungry, your tired, your poor I'll piss on them,
    That's what the Statue of Bigotry says
    Your poor huddled masses, let's club 'em to death
    And get it over with and just dump 'em on the boulevard.
    Do me a favour, you tear laden myopics. Didn't the US have Elis Island as a filter, and weren't Jews all but bared from entry during the later years of the 1930's under the great FDR, for fear of a large influx from Nazi Germany?
    I was reading about Richard Feynman, one of my scientific heroes. Some of the correspondence about him (when being considered for various academic posts) was breathtakingly antisemitic. This was in the 1950s.

    We're in danger of hagiography. The US has often had an uneasy relationship with immigrants, going all the way back to the Know-Nothings.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,014
    Good morning, everyone.

    So, this is the return of le Mac?

    F1: Brawn saying wise things. We'll have to see if action follows, and if the big budget teams can really find themselves in a fight with the poorer chaps:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/38734708
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978
    edited January 2017
    John_M said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pong said:

    If you read the article you will see that this place is impressive but not very costly. You can get around a two bedroom 80m2 flat in an average neighboorhood of Paris for that price.

    Why? because it costs a lot to maintain and because (to put it gently) it is not located in the most attractive part of France.
    "The Fillons bought the home in 1984 for €440,000, and it has since been re-valued at €650,000 in 2013"

    That's what a healthy property market looks like.
    Sadly, we're likely to get from unhealthy to healthy via a nasty plunge in certain property prices.
    Won't get many fiest time buyers and under 50s complaining
    Under 50s? I think the median age for owning your first home is - what - 28 or 29? If a bunch of those guys are cast into negative equity, they won't be too pleased.

    But, yes, in the long run, a house price correction is necessary. But that won't make it any less painful.
    30s now.

    If you're heading up the ladder, ceteris paribus a correction is a good thing even if your own home has dipped..
    That's true if you have no mortgage, as the difference in house prices is what matters.

    But. If you have a 80% mortgage, and prices fall 20%, then you have no money for the deposit on your new house.
    There are plenty of us who remember the early 90s. While they're necessary (just like recessions), there's no doubt housing market corrections cause a good deal of misery - my younger sister was financially crippled due to buying at the top of the market.

    As I remember it, house price falls most affected outer London suburbs and the inner home counties. Those in inner London fell, but not by much. I remember friends in places like Walthamstow and Chelmsford moving into negative equity, while we in N19 were fine. We did have a fixed rate mortgage of something like 12% though.

  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    John_M said:

    MikeK said:

    Not like the brazen giant of Greek fame,
    With conquering limbs astride from land to land;
    Here at our sea-washed, sunset gates shall stand
    A mighty woman with a torch, whose flame
    Is the imprisoned lightning, and her name
    Mother of Exiles. From her beacon-hand
    Glows world-wide welcome; her mild eyes command
    The air-bridged harbor that twin cities frame.

    "Keep, ancient lands, your storied pomp!" cries she
    With silent lips. "Give me your tired, your poor,
    Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
    The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
    Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
    I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"


    No, hang on: don't.

    America has a great future behind it.

    Give me your hungry, your tired, your poor I'll piss on them,
    That's what the Statue of Bigotry says
    Your poor huddled masses, let's club 'em to death
    And get it over with and just dump 'em on the boulevard.
    Do me a favour, you tear laden myopics. Didn't the US have Elis Island as a filter, and weren't Jews all but bared from entry during the later years of the 1930's under the great FDR, for fear of a large influx from Nazi Germany?
    I was reading about Richard Feynman, one of my scientific heroes. Some of the correspondence about him (when being considered for various posts) was breathtakingly antisemitic. This was in the 1950s.

    We're in danger of hagiography. The US has often had an uneasy relationship with immigrants, going all the way back to the Know-Nothings.
    In my view, the genocide of Native Americans/reservations is revolting.
  • Options
    John_M said:

    MikeK said:

    Not like the brazen giant of Greek fame,
    With conquering limbs astride from land to land;
    Here at our sea-washed, sunset gates shall stand
    A mighty woman with a torch, whose flame
    Is the imprisoned lightning, and her name
    Mother of Exiles. From her beacon-hand
    Glows world-wide welcome; her mild eyes command
    The air-bridged harbor that twin cities frame.

    "Keep, ancient lands, your storied pomp!" cries she
    With silent lips. "Give me your tired, your poor,
    Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
    The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
    Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
    I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"


    No, hang on: don't.

    America has a great future behind it.

    Give me your hungry, your tired, your poor I'll piss on them,
    That's what the Statue of Bigotry says
    Your poor huddled masses, let's club 'em to death
    And get it over with and just dump 'em on the boulevard.
    Do me a favour, you tear laden myopics. Didn't the US have Elis Island as a filter, and weren't Jews all but bared from entry during the later years of the 1930's under the great FDR, for fear of a large influx from Nazi Germany?
    I was reading about Richard Feynman, one of my scientific heroes. Some of the correspondence about him (when being considered for various posts) was breathtakingly antisemitic. This was in the 1950s.

    We're in danger of hagiography. The US has often had an uneasy relationship with immigrants, going all the way back to the Know-Nothings.
    Reading Stephen Jay Gould writing about the IQ tests used at Ellis Island was a real eye opener.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,083

    Good morning, everyone.

    So, this is the return of le Mac?

    F1: Brawn saying wise things. We'll have to see if action follows, and if the big budget teams can really find themselves in a fight with the poorer chaps:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/38734708

    Mr D, one of my sources is quite looking forward to the new regime.
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    The police will be on the case.. disgraceful.

    if you want to know more about how people just don't understand the court case, listen to the nastiness of the people of Boston on R5 live yesterday.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    John_M said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pong said:

    If you read the article you will see that this place is impressive but not very costly. You can get around a two bedroom 80m2 flat in an average neighboorhood of Paris for that price.

    Why? because it costs a lot to maintain and because (to put it gently) it is not located in the most attractive part of France.
    "The Fillons bought the home in 1984 for €440,000, and it has since been re-valued at €650,000 in 2013"

    That's what a healthy property market looks like.
    Sadly, we're likely to get from unhealthy to healthy via a nasty plunge in certain property prices.
    Won't get many fiest time buyers and under 50s complaining
    Under 50s? I think the median age for owning your first home is - what - 28 or 29? If a bunch of those guys are cast into negative equity, they won't be too pleased.

    But, yes, in the long run, a house price correction is necessary. But that won't make it any less painful.
    30s now.

    If you're heading up the ladder, ceteris paribus a correction is a good thing even if your own home has dipped..
    That's true if you have no mortgage, as the difference in house prices is what matters.

    But. If you have a 80% mortgage, and prices fall 20%, then you have no money for the deposit on your new house.
    There are plenty of us who remember the early 90s. While they're necessary (just like recessions), there's no doubt housing market corrections cause a good deal of misery - my younger sister was financially crippled due to buying at the top of the market.

    As I remember it, house price falls most affected outer London suburbs and the inner home counties. Those in inner London fell, but not by much. I remember friends in places like Walthamstow and Chelmsford moving into negative equity, while we in N19 were fine. We did have a fixed rate mortgage of something like 12% though.

    My sis was in Camberley at the time, and going through a divorce, so was essentially forced to sell and eat a very large loss which wiped her out. Her finances have never really recovered.

    I'm really not sure what we can do about London prices. They seem completely unsustainable. My nephew and his husband have just bought a place in Stratford(?) and the amount they paid for what is essentially a two-up, two-down hovel made my eyes pop out a la 'The Mask'.
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    Very ugly. But please remember that Brexit was won with a tidal wave of poorer northern disaffected WWC votes. Why do you automatically assume these idiots are of the right? They may be lost and angry ex-Labour voters.
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    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    MikeK said:

    I mean do Deplorables have mouths?
    Yes, but they tend to have more tattoos than teeth...
    two more people who's compassion for others less fortunate for themselves is underwhelming and typifying why the DNC (and Labour) will now never be more than a fringe party.
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    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    If we do Hard Brexit and become the offshore tax haven that so many right wingers want then it will surely mean that house prices in London, at least, keep on rising. If anywhere is going to do well out of Brexit it will be London.

    Indeed so, and it's worth noting that many on PB have been forecasting (and hoping for) a house price crash since the mid 2000s...
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    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Did they ever have any? The difference now is that they are in charge and have brainwashed the PM.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,456
    Egged on by the Daily Mail, as per usual. Sheets of coverage of her life etc etc.

    An ordinary citizen has had the gumption to ask the court to clarify a constitutional issue about the role of Parliament. You would have thought the defenders of English values and all that would be delighted.

    Let's hope the police do their work and prosecute these people.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    PlatoSaid said:

    John_M said:

    MikeK said:

    Not like the brazen giant of Greek fame,
    With conquering limbs astride from land to land;
    Here at our sea-washed, sunset gates shall stand
    A mighty woman with a torch, whose flame
    Is the imprisoned lightning, and her name
    Mother of Exiles. From her beacon-hand
    Glows world-wide welcome; her mild eyes command
    The air-bridged harbor that twin cities frame.

    "Keep, ancient lands, your storied pomp!" cries she
    With silent lips. "Give me your tired, your poor,
    Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
    The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
    Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
    I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"


    No, hang on: don't.

    America has a great future behind it.

    Give me your hungry, your tired, your poor I'll piss on them,
    That's what the Statue of Bigotry says
    Your poor huddled masses, let's club 'em to death
    And get it over with and just dump 'em on the boulevard.
    Do me a favour, you tear laden myopics. Didn't the US have Elis Island as a filter, and weren't Jews all but bared from entry during the later years of the 1930's under the great FDR, for fear of a large influx from Nazi Germany?
    I was reading about Richard Feynman, one of my scientific heroes. Some of the correspondence about him (when being considered for various posts) was breathtakingly antisemitic. This was in the 1950s.

    We're in danger of hagiography. The US has often had an uneasy relationship with immigrants, going all the way back to the Know-Nothings.
    In my view, the genocide of Native Americans/reservations is revolting.
    Quite. The idea that the USA is some kind of shining beacon of hope doesn't bear up under examination. It's a country founded on 'iron and blood', just like all the others.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,187

    John_M said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pong said:

    If you read the article you will see that this place is impressive but not very costly. You can get around a two bedroom 80m2 flat in an average neighboorhood of Paris for that price.

    Why? because it costs a lot to maintain and because (to put it gently) it is not located in the most attractive part of France.
    "The Fillons bought the home in 1984 for €440,000, and it has since been re-valued at €650,000 in 2013"

    That's what a healthy property market looks like.
    Sadly, we're likely to get from unhealthy to healthy via a nasty plunge in certain property prices.
    Won't get many fiest time buyers and under 50s complaining
    Under 50s? I think the median age for owning your first home is - what - 28 or 29? If a bunch of those guys are cast into negative equity, they won't be too pleased.

    But, yes, in the long run, a house price correction is necessary. But that won't make it any less painful.
    30s now.

    If you're heading up the ladder, ceteris paribus a correction is a good thing even if your own home has dipped..
    That's true if you have no mortgage, as the difference in house prices is what matters.

    But. If you have a 80% mortgage, and prices fall 20%, then you have no money for the deposit on your new house.
    There are plenty of us who remember the early 90s. While they're necessary (just like recessions), there's no doubt housing market corrections cause a good deal of misery - my younger sister was financially crippled due to buying at the top of the market.

    As I remember it, house price falls most affected outer London suburbs and the inner home counties. Those in inner London fell, but not by much. I remember friends in places like Walthamstow and Chelmsford moving into negative equity, while we in N19 were fine. We did have a fixed rate mortgage of something like 12% though.

    Inner London is basically competing with the likes of Paris and Manhattan and Brooklyn for buyers though which is not the case with outer London
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    John_M said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    John_M said:

    MikeK said:

    Not like the brazen giant of Greek fame,
    With conquering limbs astride from land to land;
    Here at our sea-washed, sunset gates shall stand
    A mighty woman with a torch, whose flame
    Is the imprisoned lightning, and her name
    Mother of Exiles. From her beacon-hand
    Glows world-wide welcome; her mild eyes command
    The air-bridged harbor that twin cities frame.

    "Keep, ancient lands, your storied pomp!" cries she
    With silent lips. "Give me your tired, your poor,
    Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
    The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
    Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
    I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"


    No, hang on: don't.

    America has a great future behind it.

    Give me your hungry, your tired, your poor I'll piss on them,
    That's what the Statue of Bigotry says
    Your poor huddled masses, let's club 'em to death
    And get it over with and just dump 'em on the boulevard.
    Do me a favour, you tear laden myopics. Didn't the US have Elis Island as a filter, and weren't Jews all but bared from entry during the later years of the 1930's under the great FDR, for fear of a large influx from Nazi Germany?
    I was reading about Richard Feynman, one of my scientific heroes. Some of the correspondence about him (when being considered for various posts) was breathtakingly antisemitic. This was in the 1950s.

    We're in danger of hagiography. The US has often had an uneasy relationship with immigrants, going all the way back to the Know-Nothings.
    In my view, the genocide of Native Americans/reservations is revolting.
    Quite. The idea that the USA is some kind of shining beacon of hope doesn't bear up under examination. It's a country founded on 'iron and blood', just like all the others.
    Have you seen the tv show Hell on Wheels about the railroad? I really enjoyed it - on Prime
  • Options
    John_M said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    John_M said:

    MikeK said:

    Not like the brazen giant of Greek fame,
    With conquering limbs astride from land to land;
    Here at our sea-washed, sunset gates shall stand
    A mighty woman with a torch, whose flame
    Is the imprisoned lightning, and her name
    Mother of Exiles. From her beacon-hand
    Glows world-wide welcome; her mild eyes command
    The air-bridged harbor that twin cities frame.

    "Keep, ancient lands, your storied pomp!" cries she
    With silent lips. "Give me your tired, your poor,
    Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
    The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
    Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
    I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"


    No, hang on: don't.

    America has a great future behind it.

    Give me your hungry, your tired, your poor I'll piss on them,
    That's what the Statue of Bigotry says
    Your poor huddled masses, let's club 'em to death
    And get it over with and just dump 'em on the boulevard.
    Do me a favour, you tear laden myopics. Didn't the US have Elis Island as a filter, and weren't Jews all but bared from entry during the later years of the 1930's under the great FDR, for fear of a large influx from Nazi Germany?
    I was reading about Richard Feynman, one of my scientific heroes. Some of the correspondence about him (when being considered for various posts) was breathtakingly antisemitic. This was in the 1950s.

    We're in danger of hagiography. The US has often had an uneasy relationship with immigrants, going all the way back to the Know-Nothings.
    In my view, the genocide of Native Americans/reservations is revolting.
    Quite. The idea that the USA is some kind of shining beacon of hope doesn't bear up under examination. It's a country founded on 'iron and blood', just like all the others.
    Condoleeza Rice described the USA as a country with a birth defect - slavery. A defect that still causes huge racial friction 250 years later (and made notably worse over the last 8 years).
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    PlatoSaid said:

    John_M said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    John_M said:

    MikeK said:

    Not like the brazen giant of Greek fame,
    With conquering limbs astride from land to land;
    Here at our sea-washed, sunset gates shall stand
    A mighty woman with a torch, whose flame
    Is the imprisoned lightning, and her name
    Mother of Exiles. From her beacon-hand
    Glows world-wide welcome; her mild eyes command
    The air-bridged harbor that twin cities frame.

    "Keep, ancient lands, your storied pomp!" cries she
    With silent lips. "Give me your tired, your poor,
    Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
    The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
    Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
    I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"


    No, hang on: don't.

    America has a great future behind it.

    Give me your hungry, your tired, your poor I'll piss on them,
    That's what the Statue of Bigotry says
    Your poor huddled masses, let's club 'em to death
    And get it over with and just dump 'em on the boulevard.
    Do me a favour, you tear laden myopics. Didn't the US have Elis Island as a filter, and weren't Jews all but bared from entry during the later years of the 1930's under the great FDR, for fear of a large influx from Nazi Germany?
    I was reading about Richard Feynman, one of my scientific heroes. Some of the correspondence about him (when being considered for various posts) was breathtakingly antisemitic. This was in the 1950s.

    We're in danger of hagiography. The US has often had an uneasy relationship with immigrants, going all the way back to the Know-Nothings.
    In my view, the genocide of Native Americans/reservations is revolting.
    Quite. The idea that the USA is some kind of shining beacon of hope doesn't bear up under examination. It's a country founded on 'iron and blood', just like all the others.
    Have you seen the tv show Hell on Wheels about the railroad? I really enjoyed it - on Prime
    Sadly, I am no longer a member of the TV-owning fraternity, which is fine, though I do suffer the very occasional pang of regret :).
This discussion has been closed.