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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A look at the next US. Secretary of State market
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A look at the next US. Secretary of State market
The Betfair market makes Trump’s pick Rex Tillerson an overwhelming favourite at c. 90% to be confirmed by the US Senate.
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George H. Bush was the one. In addition to the aforementioned loss of Tower as Secretary of Defense, he also famously put forward Peter Secchia as ambassador to Italy. When asked what he knew about Italy at his confirmation hearing. He replied: 'I saw the new Italian navy last week. Its boats have glass bottoms so they can see the old Italian navy.'
To give you some idea of how rare it is for Presidential appointments to be vetoed - Secchia was approved.
This man managed to get the wrong odds from the bookies
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/magazine/6587309.stm
@DAaronovitch: In 2016 the shit was thrown. In 2017 it hits the fan.
Assuming there's no massive skeletons hidden in Mr Tillerson's closet, that no-one found while he was CEO of one of the most high profile companies in the US, that 1/10 seems a great value bet against the majority Senate refusing to confirm the new president's star appointment. I'd make it about 1/50.
Given he will be one of the first names put to the Senate, that's a 10% return in less than a month.
It's possible that the Senate might throw out one of the more unsuitable and minor picks, just to remind the president that they're there, but not such a high profile and suitable candidate as Tillerson.
It was the US' own ham-fisted support for (initiation of?) the Turkey coup that sent Erdogan into the arms of Russia. Their own meddling has buggered them. It would take a heart of stone etc.
Obama was of course influenced by Cameron's failure to carry UK support in the House of Commons thanks to one Ed Miliband!
So Ed not only screwed up the Labour Party, he also helped bring about a collapse in Western Power in the Middle East. Useless.
I've taken the other side of this bet to OGH.
Even if the US was as powerful, relatively, as in 1960, there would be nothing that they could usefully do in Syria. Russia, Iran, and Turkey all have dogs in this fight. The US (and the West) haven't. Our only interest is to ensure that IS is crushed, and to minimise disruption to Southern Europe.
Whilst you're at it, you might also explain why 'Western Power in the Middle East', or indeed Russian Power, or anyone else not actually Middle Eastern is automatically a 'good thing'.
Oh, it wasn't.
Mikael Thalen
Washington Post issues a retraction of all its original claims regarding 'power grid hack' https://t.co/35imGktn2r
That's what happens when you outsource all* your industry, I guess.
* Slight exaggeration.
We will see, but the male strength is so strong there I just cannot envisage a situation where females even get the most basic of rights and become treated as humans.
Most of the Saudis I know (non fundys) have an exit plan. Think Iran in 79....
The US is 4.5% (approx) of the world population.
The UK is 0.88%
The thing to be careful about is extrapolating trends - when I was young, it was a commonplace that Japan would be in charge of the world by now.
We really are better off out, rather than shackled to a rotting corpse.
Interesting article, Mr. Rkrkrk. Might see if Ladbrokes have anything that appeals.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/health/12088101/Health-chiefs-attacked-over-nanny-state-alcohol-guide.html
[Yes, there are exceptions, but in general, women have lower tolerance].
"Until Leave come to terms with the way in which they won, this country is in for a grim time."
There is no such person as "Leave".
There were 17 million voters who voted leave, various campaigning groups such as Vote Leave, Grassroots Out, Leave.EU and the many smaller groups, there were politicians, people from industry and civil society who campaigned for leave, there were newspapers that endorsed leave, there were the leafleteers, canvassers, knockers, tellers, and there were millions of people who argued the case for leave in pubs, coffee shops, sitting rooms, work places and terraces up and down the land and of course also those who argued ad infinitum online including in this parish. But the idea that these people and institutions can, as some kind of collective, come to terms with anything seems fanciful.
The nature of the EU is binary and the nature of a referendum campaign is necessarily divisive. But a divisive campaign and the binary nature of the EU masks the reality that there are not really two separate tribes of British people with different interests. There are, at the fringes and among political obsessives, a small amount of people who feel passionately about the EU and of course such people are hugely over-represented here. But the vast majority of the country aren't like that, they are somewhere in the (unsequeezed) middle on the question of EU membership, liking some bits of it and not others, voting reluctantly for one side or another because the pros outweighed the cons or viceversa.
What do we mean by this country being in for a grim time? High unemployment and low growth? Terrorist attacks? Book lack in Ongar? 24 hours to save the NHS? Poor performances by our cricket, football and rugby teams and nul points in the Eurovision song contest? A cost of living crisis for the just about managing? New runways at Heathrow but strikes on Southern Rail? Theresa May being disrespected at various EU summits? These things will be grim whether or not "Leave" comes to term with the way in which they won - it is hard to think of a single thing that will become less grim if "Leave" somehow comes to terms with something.
Perhaps "grim time" means that a few wealthy middle class people on the extreme edges of EUphilia are appalled that working class people refused, in the privacy of the ballot box, to do what they were told. That feeling must indeed be grim for "remain". But, from the perspective of "leave", that grimness, though not something that motivated leave or that leave even predicted, has been one of the many positive side effects of leave's victory and remain's defeat. To misquote Julie Burchill, "bathing in the tears of the vanquished" has been an added bonus. Perhaps this is a little bit childish - but if leave's failure to come to terms with anything makes remain continue to be in for a grim time, then I think leave can and will hold out a little bit longer.
"Coming soon: Russia to blame for chlamidya, things coming without the batteries, badly behaved children, the collapse of MG-Rover, and toast landing jam side down."
Surely that's Brexit?
I wonder what the excuse will be now?
You've become the new Richard Nabavi, but with the EU not Cameron. That poster has gained some perspective now Cameron and the 'near perfect Chancellor' have departed.
Mine said "From Russia With Love".
on New Years Eve, when no one is watching, the US govt confirms that the Russians didn't hack the power grid. https://t.co/FKanHisbrL
The stats. also seem to suggest the rich consume more alcohol than the poor but suffer less illness as a result of it. Maybe that's how Churchill lived to 90, by being rich and eating a luxurious diet washed down with brandy, champagne and other booze.
"Perhaps this is a little bit childish - but if leave's failure to come to terms with anything makes remain continue to be in for a grim time, then I think leave can and will hold out a little bit longer."
More than a little bit childish! ......and so many words to say nothing.
Clearly you're not new to the site so why not reveal yourself.
Though I must be honest (and I realise this is annoying and far too late even if you agreed with me), I'm not mad keen on the title.
He has done business all over the world, something that isn't possible without some very high-level diplomatic skills, and a clear understanding of realpolitik in order to get stuff done. IMHO he's an inspired choice for SoS.
Mike is a Russian agent, real name Mikhail Smithsonovski
BTW Happy New Year everyone!
Do feel free to mention/recommend/emotionally blackmail your friends into buying it
Also, do check out Bane of Souls/Journey to Altmortis (same world but different characters), and I should have a fantasy short story included in an anthology later this month.
Mr. 1983, technically, it's an English dragon. The English dragon was white, the Welsh was and is red. Titles are always a bugger. It's why so many fantasy stories have the title The Something Of Somethings. Rogue, Assassin, Dark, Chronicles, Dragons, Tales, Legend etc are all pretty common too.
What do you think of Traitor's Prize? [Sequel title].
Edit: and "when no one is watching" -- well, today is New Year's Day, so that's no good, and tomorrow is also a holiday in America. So when should the news have been released? Shrove Tuesday?
Jeremy Corbyn is proof you can't always get what you want
I'm intrigued by the difference in national tastes in book titles. At one time, I read pretty much every detective story by Patricia Wentworth (standard early - mid 20th century whodunnits) and I discovered that the US titles were (to my ears) positively banal compared to the (to my ears) more enticing English titles.
English title Spotlight became the US Wicked Uncle; The Traveller Returns became She Came Back.
Presumably with e-books you can't cater to national tastes in the same way.
I believe it's possible to release books separately (ie make a UK, US edition and so on) but the expense of multiple covers and faffing with titles means people tend not to do it, certainly when self-publishing. Large-selling traditional books do still get varying artwork and sometimes titles.
The main problem with Obama is that it seems like he really does believe that Islam is a "religion of peace" and that there are only a few malcontents who are giving it a bad name. Look at the tough time Dave had when he tried to force the White House into conceding the word Islamic being used in a UN resolution against global terrorism. Not only is Obama's position completely delusional, it is utterly smashed by evidence. Wherever there is a Muslim majority in a nation, the minorities are hounded and persecuted and are forced to submit to Islamic law. Where they are a large minority they create sectarian tension with the majority by asking for special rules and treatment and to be subject to Islamic law rather than the law of the land.
In not facing up to this simple truth, that Islam is not ever going to reform into a moderate and peaceful religion which can live alongside others, Obama lost in Egypt, Syria, Yemmen and soon Turkey. We should have cut Saudi Arabia loose along with Iran and other hardline countries.
Even if Corbyn were not a big enough problem for Labour, the lack of economic policy coherence would be.
Glen Greenwald's take on this story: https://theintercept.com/2016/12/31/russia-hysteria-infects-washpost-again-false-story-about-hacking-u-s-electric-grid/
Let's see how that sentence sounds with some protected characteristics under the Equality Act 2010.
"They were also good at culling a particular kind of child"
"They were also good at culling a particular kind of lesbian"
"They were also good at culling a particular kind of Jew"
The fake news sites generally do not.
The craziest part is that Trump seems to have identified the military "big bad" better than Obama (Islamic terror) and the economic "big bad" better than Obama as well (China). Russia figures a bit here and there but overall it's not going to be Russians that attack America, or Russians that undercut American jobs.
"Clearly you're not new to the site so why not reveal yourself. "
I read this site and the comments regularly. I am new to posting here.
I wonder if we'll get a Mr. Remain as well.
Of course, neither will ever match the heights of eloquence and insight achieved by ColinW's Mum or Ave It, but new blood's always welcome [which sounds a shade vampiric...].
Have to say in terms of countries that sounds a bit like "we don't have a f##king clue just he ain't turkish, Kurdish or Syrian".
As an IT professional, the idea that you can blame Russia for the hack because of the use of Russian hack tool is a bit like saying that since the guy who robbed the corner store was waving a Makarov, it must have been the Russian army.
By its very nature that hack tool is freely available on the web - it is emailed to it's victims after all.....
Known locally as Dave?
Stuxnet was the suite of malware developed to attack the Iranian nuclear enrichment programme. It is one of the most sophisticated cyber attacks ever seen, maybe even the most sophisticated. Despite having a very, very particular target — a specific model of Seimens PLC attached to specific Windows computers running particular applications on both the Windows PC and PLC — it spread very widely. How widely? Over 100,000 hosts, at 40,000 unique external IP addresses, in 155 different countries. Only a tiny number of the infected PCs were actually a target.
Merely finding malware doesn't tell you a lot.
The less said about the DNC, Clinton and their approach to IT, the better. It's all been said already.
For most of us who work in or have a keen interest in something technical or complicated (for me IT/technology and aviation, respectively) we know that most of what's written in the media - about our own subject - is rubbish. Makes us think of all the other stuff of which we don't know so much, and about which we rely on the same media to educate us.
But, that isn't an answer to the question is it.
Lets try again as you are such a fan of all things EU - what does a healthy EU look like and how long before they get there?
* gag for the (possibly one) Dallas Cowboy fans on here.
I'd have more sympathy for the US governments recent actions if they looked genuinely principled and not the partisan fallout of a particularly bitter electoral defeat.
I should probably write some boilerplate rant about the stupidity of politicians complaining about foreign hacking whilst simultaneously wanting their own security services to be able to break into everything.
"Good luck to those who trust Russia."
I certainly trust Putin more than Trump and believe he is a much safer pair of hands on the world 's tiller. Don't you?