politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tories must be hoping that the newly created elected mayor
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tories must be hoping that the newly created elected mayoralties will lead to some CON victories
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Comments
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First - why always the new thread when I post?0
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Heh my winnings are paltry next to thisviewcode said:
I would be very keen to see Dromedary's breakdown. If I understand correctly, he trousered over £100,000.rottenborough said:It has certainly been a year for betting! Perhaps we should summarise our annual results?
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Why on earth do Lewisham, Tower Hamlets and Hackney need a mayor when there is one for London proper ?0
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I just totted mine up: my profit for this year was just over £2K. It's nice, but I'd like to do better.Pulpstar said:
Heh my winnings are paltry next to thisviewcode said:
I would be very keen to see Dromedary's breakdown. If I understand correctly, he trousered over £100,000.rottenborough said:It has certainly been a year for betting! Perhaps we should summarise our annual results?
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Happy Birthday @PlatoSaid0
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Why not? The City of London has one and no one ever suggests that should be scrapped.Pulpstar said:Why on earth do Lewisham, Tower Hamlets and Hackney need a mayor when there is one for London proper ?
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I think the Tories are hoping that even if they are not Tory victories they will be Labour or LibDem voices that want to devolve and wield power to their own bailiwicks, and so become a thorn in the side of their statist national parties.0
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@Pulpstar
This is a LOCAL mayor for LOCAL people! There's nothing for YOU here!
[oblique reference to The League of Gentlemen - Royston Vasey stylee]
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BTW Happy 50th to @PlatoSaid if she's reading.0
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If I am hellbound, it won't be because of - let's face it - somewhat picayune gambling.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Hopefully eternal hellfire* won't await you!0 -
Happy Birthday @PlatoSaid.0
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I don't believe that Parliament has the right to scrap the Lord Mayor of London's position. The Corporation exists outwith Parliament's remit as it is constituted under a Royal CharterAlastairMeeks said:
Why not? The City of London has one and no one ever suggests that should be scrapped.Pulpstar said:Why on earth do Lewisham, Tower Hamlets and Hackney need a mayor when there is one for London proper ?
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I'm here and thanx!Sunil_Prasannan said:BTW Happy 50th to @Plato if she's reading.
On a note from another thread, I was reminded of the great work of the RNLI
Donated £25. Their daily rescue tally is extraordinary
https://rnli.org/news-and-media
They don't accept a penny of tax payer money on principle, what a well deserving cause if you're feeling the festive giving spirit0 -
Pulpstar
"Why on earth do Lewisham, Tower Hamlets and Hackney need a mayor when there is one for London proper ?"
Because the powers of London boroughs are totally different from the Greater London Authority.
Remember that Maggie was able to abolish the GLC in the 80s and let the boroughs run everything. It was Labour that created the new set-up in 2000
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Thanxxx for all the good wishes, I'm halfway down a bottle of fizz...old_labour said:Happy Birthday @PlatoSaid
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Pretty sure that it could be. Legislation trumps Royal Charters, as the East India Company could no doubt attest.Charles said:
I don't believe that Parliament has the right to scrap the Lord Mayor of London's position. The Corporation exists outwith Parliament's remit as it is constituted under a Royal CharterAlastairMeeks said:
Why not? The City of London has one and no one ever suggests that should be scrapped.Pulpstar said:Why on earth do Lewisham, Tower Hamlets and Hackney need a mayor when there is one for London proper ?
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"I just totted mine up: my profit for this year was just over £2K. It's nice, but I'd like to do better."
If you look at your political betting winnings and work out how much time you spend on it then you are getting nowhere near the minimum wage.
I plan a thread during the holidays on the betting year and how people did.0 -
On topic, the Tories won't win many of the mayoralities because most are in heavily Labour areas. That's not to say that Labour will win - independents and local parties always stand a chance in what are much more personal elections than parliamentary ones - but those winners will come out of the Labour tradition in one way or another.
Nor will it particularly matter if the Tories don't make much of an impact in the mayoralities as long as they do well in the county council, Scottish and Welsh local elections.0 -
Happy birthday!PlatoSaid said:
Thanxxx for all the good wishes, I'm halfway down a bottle of fizz...old_labour said:Happy Birthday @PlatoSaid
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But there was a vote to make Parliament sovereign.Charles said:
I don't believe that Parliament has the right to scrap the Lord Mayor of London's position. The Corporation exists outwith Parliament's remit as it is constituted under a Royal CharterAlastairMeeks said:
Why not? The City of London has one and no one ever suggests that should be scrapped.Pulpstar said:Why on earth do Lewisham, Tower Hamlets and Hackney need a mayor when there is one for London proper ?
Screw the unelected and mandateless buggers.0 -
On topic, it is interesting that high profile Labour are effectively quitting parliament to win these Mayoral jobs, but the Tories aren't.
An indication of Labour of being out of power for a while?0 -
@viewcode
My reading is that, of course, "hellfire" is an allegorical reference to the earth's molten magma lying beneath the crust, and of course is visible to humans during volcanic activity.
But is there any evidence that humans actually take a voyage into the magma when they die?0 -
Maybe if a few more of the Tory candidates dressed up as monkeys they would have a better chance of being elected.
However, as they now seem to want to extend the role of city-region mayor to rural areas without a city, this may provide another path to victory.
N.B. Tees Valley is a city-region without a city; just Darlo, Hartlepool, Stockton and a small town in Yorkshire.
Why half* of County Durham and a chunk of the North Riding should be lumped together I have no idea.
(* OK, less than half)0 -
Or Labour adapting to new politics? Arguably mayors have more power than government ministers.TheScreamingEagles said:On topic, it is interesting that high profile Labour are effectively quitting parliament to win these Mayoral jobs, but the Tories aren't.
An indication of Labour of being out of power for a while?0 -
On political bets I am up about £500 on the year, and a very nice book from winning the PB NoJam London mayors race.viewcode said:
I just totted mine up: my profit for this year was just over £2K. It's nice, but I'd like to do better.Pulpstar said:
Heh my winnings are paltry next to thisviewcode said:
I would be very keen to see Dromedary's breakdown. If I understand correctly, he trousered over £100,000.rottenborough said:It has certainly been a year for betting! Perhaps we should summarise our annual results?
On football I am about £6000 up, but mostly on my £1 ew at 3000/1 on Leicester winning the league.
Domestically, I have not done badly either, and look to be able to ride out the Brexit storms well. Come rain or shine, Doctors are in demand, and soon I can cash out of the NHS, and Locum in the Gulf or Antipodes with my pension back up.
Its been a good year.
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What a fun sponge.MikeSmithson said:"I just totted mine up: my profit for this year was just over £2K. It's nice, but I'd like to do better."
If you look at your political betting winnings and work out how much time you spend on it then you are getting nowhere near the minimum wage.
I plan a thread during the holidays on the betting year and how people did.
Humbug.0 -
I keep on toying on doing a thread about how the next party leaders could be people not in Parliament, but being metro mayors, leaders in the devolved assemblies.Jonathan said:
Or Labour adapting to new politics? Arguably mayors have more power than government ministers.TheScreamingEagles said:On topic, it is interesting that high profile Labour are effectively quitting parliament to win these Mayoral jobs, but the Tories aren't.
An indication of Labour of being out of power for a while?
Just imagine if Steve Rotherham is a real success in Liverpool come 2020 people might see him as a potential Labour leader.
Or when Mrs May stands down people might look to Ruth Davidson as her successor .0 -
There is some truth to that! Nonetheless much pleasure too.MikeSmithson said:"I just totted mine up: my profit for this year was just over £2K. It's nice, but I'd like to do better."
If you look at your political betting winnings and work out how much time you spend on it then you are getting nowhere near the minimum wage.
I plan a thread during the holidays on the betting year and how people did.0 -
On betting, an admission. I haven't actually placed a bet for at least two years. This was essentially down to not having the cash, having been maintaining two houses on one income, while we tried to sell the house my wife owned before we got together. That self-imposed restriction wasn't without its frustrations, none more so than on Brexit Night (though tipping Trump and Cruz for the GOP nomination in late 2015 runs it close). Now the house has sold, I'll be re-entering the markets in 2017.0
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Don't forget to include your bit in what I believe was the second largest increase in Sterling in 2016.MikeSmithson said:"I just totted mine up: my profit for this year was just over £2K. It's nice, but I'd like to do better."
If you look at your political betting winnings and work out how much time you spend on it then you are getting nowhere near the minimum wage.
I plan a thread during the holidays on the betting year and how people did.0 -
Marginal cost vs average cost vs opportunity cost: I was already doing analyses of the elections for other people so the groundwork had already been done. But even if that had not been the case, if the time taken would otherwise have been spent doing unrenumerative work, then the betting would have been worthwhile.MikeSmithson said:"I just totted mine up: my profit for this year was just over £2K. It's nice, but I'd like to do better."
If you look at your political betting winnings and work out how much time you spend on it then you are getting nowhere near the minimum wage.
In the former case, the marginal cost of betting (assuming stake not lost!) was effectively zero. There was some fear involved in going into a betting shop and there was some difficulty in moving the money around, but those weren't big things
In the latter case, the opportunity cost of betting (ditto!) was effectively zero: I wasn't planning on doing anything renumerative with my time otherwise.
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Sunil_Prasannan said:
@viewcode
My reading is that, of course, "hellfire" is an allegorical reference to the earth's molten magma lying beneath the crust, and of course is visible to humans during volcanic activity.
But is there any evidence that humans actually take a voyage into the magma when they die?
is there any evidence that humans actually take a voyage into the magma when they die?
Yes.
But they only go about the first six feet.
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I would argue that there is only a handful jobs in politics better/more influential than the Mayors. If you have no prospect of achieving them, becoming a mayor is a good shout.TheScreamingEagles said:
I keep on toying on doing a thread about how the next party leaders could be people not in Parliament, but being metro mayors, leaders in the devolved assemblies.Jonathan said:
Or Labour adapting to new politics? Arguably mayors have more power than government ministers.TheScreamingEagles said:On topic, it is interesting that high profile Labour are effectively quitting parliament to win these Mayoral jobs, but the Tories aren't.
An indication of Labour of being out of power for a while?
Just imagine if Steve Rotherham is a real success in Liverpool come 2020 people might see him as a potential Labour leader.
Or when Mrs May stands down people might look to Ruth Davidson as her successor .
PM
LoO
CoE
FSec
Health Sec
FM (devolved)
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Quite possibly cause and effect - they're leaving because Labour has been and will be out of power, and because they leave that weakens the PLP still further. Perish the thought that the person who designed them might have had that outcome in mind as a side-effect.TheScreamingEagles said:On topic, it is interesting that high profile Labour are effectively quitting parliament to win these Mayoral jobs, but the Tories aren't.
An indication of Labour of being out of power for a while?0 -
I am not sure I have the time to discuss this in the depth requiredSunil_Prasannan said:@viewcode
My reading is that, of course, "hellfire" is an allegorical reference to the earth's molten magma lying beneath the crust, and of course is visible to humans during volcanic activity.
But is there any evidence that humans actually take a voyage into the magma when they die?0 -
Good to see the metro mayors come to fruition for Gtr Manchester, Gtr Liverpool, Gtr Sheffield, Gtr Bristol, Gtr Birmingham. We should complete the set with Gtr Newcastle and Gtr Nottingham. The existing boundaries are utterly bonkers and have long been in need of reform.
Well done Mr Geo Osborne.0 -
You have to remember that the Aldermen are non-political. They all vote Conservative.TheScreamingEagles said:
But there was a vote to make Parliament sovereign.Charles said:
I don't believe that Parliament has the right to scrap the Lord Mayor of London's position. The Corporation exists outwith Parliament's remit as it is constituted under a Royal CharterAlastairMeeks said:
Why not? The City of London has one and no one ever suggests that should be scrapped.Pulpstar said:Why on earth do Lewisham, Tower Hamlets and Hackney need a mayor when there is one for London proper ?
Screw the unelected and mandateless buggers.
Anyway they are elected. By companies
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My best bet of the year odds wise was on Roger's stonking Oscar's tip at c 40/1.0
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Mr Herdson - supporting two houses and one wife is probably better than the reverse situation!0
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Sandy Rentool - Tees Valley mayoralty makes perfect sense. Why do you hark back to counties that a) haven't existed for five decades and b) don't reflect real geographies?0
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There are big differences between a metro mayor and local authority mayors. Local authority mayors are largely figureheads, essentially a new name for the position of council leader with little other effect. They only have the powers conferred to them as council leader.Pulpstar said:Why on earth do Lewisham, Tower Hamlets and Hackney need a mayor when there is one for London proper ?
A metro mayor on the other hand is a way to devolve strategic powers that would otherwise be held by central government. In this way it is a considerably more important position.
These two types of mayoralties shouldn't really be confused as done in this thread.
Another thing I should point out, these new metro mayors are not necessarily as powerful as they seem. For instance GM wrangled a deal with Osbourne so that the council leaders have a majority veto on the Mayor. They didn't want a Mayor to get the powers, and didn't want another tier of government like the GLA, but this was the compromise they made to provide scrutiny.
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The parties need to amend their rule books first. I think the Lib Dems and Tories both restrict candidates to sitting MPs. But yes, in a more multi-dimensional political world, positions like FM of Wales or Scotland, or Mayor of London is equivalent to a cabinet post, so why shouldn't someone who's been seen to have done a good job at that level be parachuted in to a national leadership.TheScreamingEagles said:
I keep on toying on doing a thread about how the next party leaders could be people not in Parliament, but being metro mayors, leaders in the devolved assemblies.Jonathan said:
Or Labour adapting to new politics? Arguably mayors have more power than government ministers.TheScreamingEagles said:On topic, it is interesting that high profile Labour are effectively quitting parliament to win these Mayoral jobs, but the Tories aren't.
An indication of Labour of being out of power for a while?
Just imagine if Steve Rotherham is a real success in Liverpool come 2020 people might see him as a potential Labour leader.
Or when Mrs May stands down people might look to Ruth Davidson as her successor .0 -
Brave man, equating Scotland to a metro area...TheScreamingEagles said:
I keep on toying on doing a thread about how the next party leaders could be people not in Parliament, but being metro mayors, leaders in the devolved assemblies.Jonathan said:
Or Labour adapting to new politics? Arguably mayors have more power than government ministers.TheScreamingEagles said:On topic, it is interesting that high profile Labour are effectively quitting parliament to win these Mayoral jobs, but the Tories aren't.
An indication of Labour of being out of power for a while?
Just imagine if Steve Rotherham is a real success in Liverpool come 2020 people might see him as a potential Labour leader.
Or when Mrs May stands down people might look to Ruth Davidson as her successor .0 -
On bets this year I have a 100% record. I won each one I made: over £1,000 on the Tottenham choke; £700 on Brexit; and £300 on Trump. That's my best ever. though I could and should have made a lot more on Brexit.0
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Mr Crosby made c£50k on POTUS, a great pity that his long held views on one subject have now no platformed him. He's said the same stuff for years.
I don't agree with him on this, but he's a big insight loss.0 -
Mr Bob - I just knew that if I placed the bait, it wouldn't take long for you to bite!
However, you can't deny that it is a city-region lacking a city.0 -
SandyRentool said:
Mr Herdson - supporting two houses and one wife is probably better than the reverse situation!
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I'd have had to work 7.5 hour days every weekend both Saturdays and Sundays at the local shop to equal my betting profits (approximately) every weekend (A broad stroke analysis when tax and NI is considered).MikeSmithson said:"I just totted mine up: my profit for this year was just over £2K. It's nice, but I'd like to do better."
If you look at your political betting winnings and work out how much time you spend on it then you are getting nowhere near the minimum wage.
I plan a thread during the holidays on the betting year and how people did.
That gambling profits are tax free is particularly nice.0 -
Sandy
That is true - that I cannot and will not attempt to deny!0 -
Re P&L this year.
Thank God for Betfair going OTT on Marco Rubio after Iowa otherwise I would have been going to the poor house.
EU Referendum night was profitable was amazed that I called it for Leave after Sunderland and yet the markets and pundits still thought Remain was on course.
Theresa May becoming PM was profitable, having tipped her at 16/1 back in 2013.
Following Mike on the spreads re Hillary was profitable too, wrongest market has to be the popular vote winner, even on the 10th of November.
Big shout out to Henry G and Tissue Price who tipped Khan and Goldsmith to win at 33/1 and 22/1.
Going forward, if David Miliband becomes the next Labour leader then that will be sub optimal.0 -
Your 8/1 brexit and over 65% turnout and 7/1 brexit and under 65% turnout bets were my favourite bets of the year... hilarious!SouthamObserver said:On bets this year I have a 100% record. I won each one I made: over £1,000 on the Tottenham choke; £700 on Brexit; and £300 on Trump. That's my best ever. though I could and should have made a lot more on Brexit.
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My favourite long term forecast is Scott Adams from 26yrs ago
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Outside London, how many of the citizens of these towns and cities know who their Mayor is?0
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Have to do a final tally but I think I'm up about £6k on the year for political bets, down about £500 on sports and other bets.0
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Given the way national news is biased towards London it wouldn't surprise me if people knew the London mayor (especially when it was Boris) but didn't know their own.not_on_fire said:Outside London, how many of the citizens of these towns and cities know who their Mayor is?
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Oh and laying Boris as next Tory leader for ages was fun and profitable0
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What was straight Brexit at the time, if it was 16-5 or shorter that pair would be worth takingisam said:
Your 8/1 brexit and over 65% turnout and 7/1 brexit and under 65% turnout bets were my favourite bets of the year... hilarious!SouthamObserver said:On bets this year I have a 100% record. I won each one I made: over £1,000 on the Tottenham choke; £700 on Brexit; and £300 on Trump. That's my best ever. though I could and should have made a lot more on Brexit.
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An article from 8 years ago this month:
"And now for a world government
Gideon Rachman"
https://www.ft.com/content/7a03e5b6-c541-11dd-b516-000077b076580 -
~4 on BF iirc.Pulpstar said:
What was straight Brexit at the time, if it was 16-5 or shorter that pair would be worth takingisam said:
Your 8/1 brexit and over 65% turnout and 7/1 brexit and under 65% turnout bets were my favourite bets of the year... hilarious!SouthamObserver said:On bets this year I have a 100% record. I won each one I made: over £1,000 on the Tottenham choke; £700 on Brexit; and £300 on Trump. That's my best ever. though I could and should have made a lot more on Brexit.
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Yes, Osborne too. That was a £240 win alone.TheScreamingEagles said:Oh and laying Boris as next Tory leader for ages was fun and profitable
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I was thinking just imagine what PB would have been like when the Tories had the magic circle and peers became Tory Leader/PM.david_herdson said:
The parties need to amend their rule books first. I think the Lib Dems and Tories both restrict candidates to sitting MPs. But yes, in a more multi-dimensional political world, positions like FM of Wales or Scotland, or Mayor of London is equivalent to a cabinet post, so why shouldn't someone who's been seen to have done a good job at that level be parachuted in to a national leadership.TheScreamingEagles said:
I keep on toying on doing a thread about how the next party leaders could be people not in Parliament, but being metro mayors, leaders in the devolved assemblies.Jonathan said:
Or Labour adapting to new politics? Arguably mayors have more power than government ministers.TheScreamingEagles said:On topic, it is interesting that high profile Labour are effectively quitting parliament to win these Mayoral jobs, but the Tories aren't.
An indication of Labour of being out of power for a while?
Just imagine if Steve Rotherham is a real success in Liverpool come 2020 people might see him as a potential Labour leader.
Or when Mrs May stands down people might look to Ruth Davidson as her successor .0 -
OK, something's wrong here. I bow to no man in my estimation of RodCrosby with respect to his prediction of a CON 2015 majority, made over six months out and held under fire (see previous posts to that effect). But I was checking his POTUS 2016 spreadsheet up to about 36hrs prior and even at that stage his spreadsheet was predicting a Clinton victory, not a Trump one. If he was predicting a Trump victory, where the heck was he predicting it and when was that prediction made?PlatoSaid said:Mr Crosby made c£50k on POTUS, a great pity that his long held views on one subject have now no platformed him. He's said the same stuff for years.
I don't agree with him on this, but he's a big insight loss.0 -
Well they did vote not so long ago to remain a small region in the United Kingdom.Charles said:
Brave man, equating Scotland to a metro area...TheScreamingEagles said:
I keep on toying on doing a thread about how the next party leaders could be people not in Parliament, but being metro mayors, leaders in the devolved assemblies.Jonathan said:
Or Labour adapting to new politics? Arguably mayors have more power than government ministers.TheScreamingEagles said:On topic, it is interesting that high profile Labour are effectively quitting parliament to win these Mayoral jobs, but the Tories aren't.
An indication of Labour of being out of power for a while?
Just imagine if Steve Rotherham is a real success in Liverpool come 2020 people might see him as a potential Labour leader.
Or when Mrs May stands down people might look to Ruth Davidson as her successor .0 -
Strictly Betfair Exchange
2008 +5.61
2009 +0
2010 -140.00 (Casino lol)
2011 +0.00
2012 +218.64
2013 +410.23
2014 +247.44
2015 +1414.79
2016 +3586.79
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It was following Rod that I moved my modest winnings on Trump nomination to win POTUS.viewcode said:
OK, something's wrong here. I bow to no man in my estimation of RodCrosby with respect to his prediction of a CON 2015 majority, made over six months out and held under fire (see previous posts to that effect). But I was checking his POTUS 2016 spreadsheet up to about 36hrs prior and even at that stage his spreadsheet was predicting a Clinton victory, not a Trump one. If he was predicting a Trump victory, where the heck was he predicting it and when was that prediction made?PlatoSaid said:Mr Crosby made c£50k on POTUS, a great pity that his long held views on one subject have now no platformed him. He's said the same stuff for years.
I don't agree with him on this, but he's a big insight loss.
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He consistently backed Trump, his spreadsheet was a device merely to tell unbias truth regarding what the polls were saying.viewcode said:
OK, something's wrong here. I bow to no man in my estimation of RodCrosby with respect to his prediction of a CON 2015 majority, made over six months out and held under fire (see previous posts to that effect). But I was checking his POTUS 2016 spreadsheet up to about 36hrs prior and even at that stage his spreadsheet was predicting a Clinton victory, not a Trump one. If he was predicting a Trump victory, where the heck was he predicting it and when was that prediction made?PlatoSaid said:Mr Crosby made c£50k on POTUS, a great pity that his long held views on one subject have now no platformed him. He's said the same stuff for years.
I don't agree with him on this, but he's a big insight loss.0 -
Tis a wonder with us clever PB folk that bookies manage to stay solvent!
Worst bet of the year? Leicester to win the league again 33/1 £50, though my 80/1 £50 on Leicester to win the Champions League is still alive. In mitigation both were re-investment of last years winnings...0 -
4/1Pulpstar said:
What was straight Brexit at the time, if it was 16-5 or shorter that pair would be worth takingisam said:
Your 8/1 brexit and over 65% turnout and 7/1 brexit and under 65% turnout bets were my favourite bets of the year... hilarious!SouthamObserver said:On bets this year I have a 100% record. I won each one I made: over £1,000 on the Tottenham choke; £700 on Brexit; and £300 on Trump. That's my best ever. though I could and should have made a lot more on Brexit.
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Worst bet of the year.
Clinton to win Arkansas0 -
That MTV video is seriously awful. Speaker of the NI Assembly is now in more danger of losing his job than the First Minister is of losing hers!0
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I checked his spreadsheet the day before and can confirm that it was predicting a Clinton win.viewcode said:
OK, something's wrong here. I bow to no man in my estimation of RodCrosby with respect to his prediction of a CON 2015 majority, made over six months out and held under fire (see previous posts to that effect). But I was checking his POTUS 2016 spreadsheet up to about 36hrs prior and even at that stage his spreadsheet was predicting a Clinton victory, not a Trump one. If he was predicting a Trump victory, where the heck was he predicting it and when was that prediction made?PlatoSaid said:Mr Crosby made c£50k on POTUS, a great pity that his long held views on one subject have now no platformed him. He's said the same stuff for years.
I don't agree with him on this, but he's a big insight loss.
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http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-election-idUSKBN1490OZ
Macron heads approval rating for French politicians - ahead of Fillon.0 -
0
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Jack W would know.TheScreamingEagles said:
I was thinking just imagine what PB would have been like when the Tories had the magic circle and peers became Tory Leader/PM.david_herdson said:
The parties need to amend their rule books first. I think the Lib Dems and Tories both restrict candidates to sitting MPs. But yes, in a more multi-dimensional political world, positions like FM of Wales or Scotland, or Mayor of London is equivalent to a cabinet post, so why shouldn't someone who's been seen to have done a good job at that level be parachuted in to a national leadership.TheScreamingEagles said:
I keep on toying on doing a thread about how the next party leaders could be people not in Parliament, but being metro mayors, leaders in the devolved assemblies.Jonathan said:
Or Labour adapting to new politics? Arguably mayors have more power than government ministers.TheScreamingEagles said:On topic, it is interesting that high profile Labour are effectively quitting parliament to win these Mayoral jobs, but the Tories aren't.
An indication of Labour of being out of power for a while?
Just imagine if Steve Rotherham is a real success in Liverpool come 2020 people might see him as a potential Labour leader.
Or when Mrs May stands down people might look to Ruth Davidson as her successor .
That said, in effect, the IDS-Howard succession was as near as makes no difference a Magic Circle arrangement, which PB missed by only a year, and something similar could happen again.0 -
South Carolina primary:
@williamglenn
"It's a geographic election. Trump will win over enough Reagan democrats in the flyover states to swing the election. It won't matter if some Republicans aren't willing to hold their nose and vote Trump because they'll all be in the places where Clinton will pile up votes anyway."0 -
Actually, I forgot; I made a £10 loss on the year, to ScottP, as a result of calling the High Court A50 case wrongly.0
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@isam - I won and that's all that matters :-) I am no pro.0
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That's why bookies make so much money... but at least you wonSouthamObserver said:@isam - I won and that's all that matters :-) I am no pro.
I lost on the spurs choke for the same reasons you won ☺️
Reminds me of when I was working at a spread betting company and a client wanted to sell the goals at 5 to close, when the score was 3-2 in the last minute.0 -
That was more a coup/political assassination.david_herdson said:
Jack W would know.TheScreamingEagles said:
I was thinking just imagine what PB would have been like when the Tories had the magic circle and peers became Tory Leader/PM.david_herdson said:
The parties need to amend their rule books first. I think the Lib Dems and Tories both restrict candidates to sitting MPs. But yes, in a more multi-dimensional political world, positions like FM of Wales or Scotland, or Mayor of London is equivalent to a cabinet post, so why shouldn't someone who's been seen to have done a good job at that level be parachuted in to a national leadership.TheScreamingEagles said:
I keep on toying on doing a thread about how the next party leaders could be people not in Parliament, but being metro mayors, leaders in the devolved assemblies.Jonathan said:
Or Labour adapting to new politics? Arguably mayors have more power than government ministers.TheScreamingEagles said:On topic, it is interesting that high profile Labour are effectively quitting parliament to win these Mayoral jobs, but the Tories aren't.
An indication of Labour of being out of power for a while?
Just imagine if Steve Rotherham is a real success in Liverpool come 2020 people might see him as a potential Labour leader.
Or when Mrs May stands down people might look to Ruth Davidson as her successor .
That said, in effect, the IDS-Howard succession was as near as makes no difference a Magic Circle arrangement, which PB missed by only a year, and something similar could happen again.
Is one of the reasons why I like the Tory party, we have no compunction in removing poorly performing leaders.
I remember the night IDS was toppled, I think it was Francis Maude on tv saying it was only after IDS had lost the vote of no confidence that the parliamentary party decided on Michael Howard and there was no planning beforehand.
He said it with a straight face.0 -
I don't bother to keep the extensive spreadsheets that some like to, but it's a second consecutive 10-15k year, the vast majority of which was from political betting (though a shout out to @isam for 10/3 France most goals). Despite this, I'm really quite cross with myself for not making more on the two big overnights - all that was required was to deposit more cash!
Next year isn't likely to provide the same sort of profits unless we have a GE, simply because I'm largely reliant on betfair to get on.
Going forward my Next French President book is a bit ugly but my Next Labour Leader book is looking very tidy.
Thanks to everyone on here, especially those who tip winners! A Merry Christmas to Remainers, Leavers, Kippers, Cameroons, Corbynites and Nats alike! [And anyone else...]0 -
Francis Maude is always the Tory to watch.TheScreamingEagles said:
That was more a coup/political assassination.david_herdson said:
Jack W would know.TheScreamingEagles said:
I was thinking just imagine what PB would have been like when the Tories had the magic circle and peers became Tory Leader/PM.david_herdson said:
The parties need to amend their rule books first. I think the Lib Dems and Tories both restrict candidates to sitting MPs. But yes, in a more multi-dimensional political world, positions like FM of Wales or Scotland, or Mayor of London is equivalent to a cabinet post, so why shouldn't someone who's been seen to have done a good job at that level be parachuted in to a national leadership.TheScreamingEagles said:
I keep on toying on doing a thread about how the next party leaders could be people not in Parliament, but being metro mayors, leaders in the devolved assemblies.Jonathan said:
Or Labour adapting to new politics? Arguably mayors have more power than government ministers.TheScreamingEagles said:On topic, it is interesting that high profile Labour are effectively quitting parliament to win these Mayoral jobs, but the Tories aren't.
An indication of Labour of being out of power for a while?
Just imagine if Steve Rotherham is a real success in Liverpool come 2020 people might see him as a potential Labour leader.
Or when Mrs May stands down people might look to Ruth Davidson as her successor .
That said, in effect, the IDS-Howard succession was as near as makes no difference a Magic Circle arrangement, which PB missed by only a year, and something similar could happen again.
Is one of the reasons why I like the Tory party, we have no compunction in removing poorly performing leaders.
I remember the night IDS was toppled, I think it was Francis Maude on tv saying it was only after IDS had lost the vote of no confidence that the parliamentary party decided on Michael Howard and there was no planning beforehand.
He said it with a straight face.0 -
Thanks for finding that.Pulpstar said:South Carolina primary:
@williamglenn
"It's a geographic election. Trump will win over enough Reagan democrats in the flyover states to swing the election. It won't matter if some Republicans aren't willing to hold their nose and vote Trump because they'll all be in the places where Clinton will pile up votes anyway."
0 -
"Backing" is too ambiguous: we can all want somebody to win, but making a prediction involves saying on a given date that "X will win", not "I feel he will win" or similar. When did Rod make a prediction, and where did he make it?Pulpstar said:
He consistently backed Trump, his spreadsheet was a device merely to tell unbias truth regarding what the polls were saying.viewcode said:
OK, something's wrong here. I bow to no man in my estimation of RodCrosby with respect to his prediction of a CON 2015 majority, made over six months out and held under fire (see previous posts to that effect). But I was checking his POTUS 2016 spreadsheet up to about 36hrs prior and even at that stage his spreadsheet was predicting a Clinton victory, not a Trump one. If he was predicting a Trump victory, where the heck was he predicting it and when was that prediction made?PlatoSaid said:Mr Crosby made c£50k on POTUS, a great pity that his long held views on one subject have now no platformed him. He's said the same stuff for years.
I don't agree with him on this, but he's a big insight loss.0 -
So what's the catch?williamglenn said:http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-election-idUSKBN1490OZ
Macron heads approval rating for French politicians - ahead of Fillon.
Fillon odds on and Macron 6-7/1?0 -
@SouthamObserver
I owe you £20 for a bet on Ed Miliband getting 50%+ in Doncaster at the GE... send me your deets!0 -
I need to do some totting up when I get home, but somewhere close to £10,000 profit.
My most satisfying betting moment, however, was tipping the SNP not to get an overall majority in Holyrood on the morning of the election at 8/1 and being told by all the Scots on the thread that it was money down the drain.0 -
South Carolina Primary,viewcode said:
"Backing" is too ambiguous: we can all want somebody to win, but making a prediction involves saying on a given date that "X will win", not "I feel he will win" or similar. When did Rod make a prediction, and where did he make it?Pulpstar said:
He consistently backed Trump, his spreadsheet was a device merely to tell unbias truth regarding what the polls were saying.viewcode said:
OK, something's wrong here. I bow to no man in my estimation of RodCrosby with respect to his prediction of a CON 2015 majority, made over six months out and held under fire (see previous posts to that effect). But I was checking his POTUS 2016 spreadsheet up to about 36hrs prior and even at that stage his spreadsheet was predicting a Clinton victory, not a Trump one. If he was predicting a Trump victory, where the heck was he predicting it and when was that prediction made?PlatoSaid said:Mr Crosby made c£50k on POTUS, a great pity that his long held views on one subject have now no platformed him. He's said the same stuff for years.
I don't agree with him on this, but he's a big insight loss.
Long range forecast
RodCrosby said:
At this juncture, I may as well give you my first long-range 2016 forecast...
REP 53.4% 353
DEM 46.6% 185
MOE, who knows?
But the GOP are in pole position.
He also backed and said he backed Trump around this point, I remember well as Trump was ~ 6.0 or so for POTUS.
I listened to Malcolm G on that one, bit annoyed with myself for that.AlastairMeeks said:I need to do some totting up when I get home, but somewhere close to £10,000 profit.
My most satisfying betting moment, however, was tipping the SNP not to get an overall majority in Holyrood on the morning of the election at 8/1 and being told by all the Scots on the thread that it was money down the drain.0 -
Thank you for that. Can you tell me where that quote is from, please?Pulpstar said:South Carolina Primary,
Long range forecast
RodCrosby said:
At this juncture, I may as well give you my first long-range 2016 forecast...
REP 53.4% 353
DEM 46.6% 185
MOE, who knows?
But the GOP are in pole position.
He also backed and said he backed Trump around this point, I remember well as Trump was ~ 6.0 or so for POTUS.
0 -
@viewcode
Take a look through the threads around this time.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/02/20/first-post-eu-deal-referendum-poll-has-remain-with-15-lead/
No South Carolina explicit thread - a shame.0 -
There may have been longer priced winners, but I think that's one of the best tips this year. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think this was predicated on the polls being massively wrong.AlastairMeeks said:My most satisfying betting moment, however, was tipping the SNP not to get an overall majority in Holyrood on the morning of the election at 8/1 and being told by all the Scots on the thread that it was money down the drain.
0 -
2016 was a slightly frustrating year betting-wise. Higher management requires me to produce quarterly accounts, in order to approve a renewal of my Political Betting Licence. I did very well in the first three quarters, with good results on the Irish GE, Holyrood election, London mayoral election, Labour leadership re-run, and the Republican nomination. However, I screwed up on the night of the US election, which meant in Q4 I made just £300 profit - much less than I was hoping for and much less than I would have got if I hadn't made an error on the night. This is particularly frustrating because of the opportunity cost - we don't get markets as liquid as the US Presidential very often. Still, a profit is a profit, and from memory I think I'm about £5K up overall on the year.0
-
"Long range forecast
RodCrosby said:
At this juncture, I may as well give you my first long-range 2016 forecast...
REP 53.4% 353
DEM 46.6% 185
MOE, who knows?
But the GOP are in pole position."
Not really an impressive forecast, massively overstated the REP electoral and popular vote.0 -
Robert Kimbell
Revealed: firearms seized in the European Union between 2010 and early 2015. https://t.co/QEfUi7FJGy0 -
Close to the end of this thread (i.e. just before a new thread):Pulpstar said:@viewcode
Take a look through the threads around this time.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/02/20/first-post-eu-deal-referendum-poll-has-remain-with-15-lead/
No South Carolina explicit thread - a shame.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/02/20/not-long-now-till-we-know-what-boris-will-do/0 -
Thank you: I have found it here: http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/951683/#Comment_951683Pulpstar said:@viewcode Take a look... http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/02/20/first-post-eu-deal-referendum-poll-has-remain-with-15-lead/
No South Carolina explicit thread - a shame.0 -
Well it was a very long range forecast...not_on_fire said:"Long range forecast
RodCrosby said:
At this juncture, I may as well give you my first long-range 2016 forecast...
REP 53.4% 353
DEM 46.6% 185
MOE, who knows?
But the GOP are in pole position."
Not really an impressive forecast, massively overstated the REP electoral and popular vote.
Anyway closer to the time:
"COMMENTARY: ***FURTHER TIGHTENING 7/11/16***
Polls continue to tighten, generally in Trump's favour....
A small systematic error, and Trump is the 45th President. I believe the chance of such error is high.
INTERESTING FACT: you have to go back to 1904 to find a swing in favour of a two-term (or more) incumbent party, and that was under a sitting president, Teddy Roosevelt. The median swing against is about 5%, the lowest 1.2% in 1944, against FDR. The lowest swing against the incumbent party in an open election was 3.9% in 1928. Clinton is no FDR or Bull Moose, so perhaps the polls are wrong...
Basically, if there's a 2% shy-Trump factor (i.e. +1% versus Clinton, not at all outlandish), he's one state - any state - away from victory. If the shy-Trump factor is 2.5%, then toss a coin...
ENDORA still not quite the done-deal for President, methinks... (^_-)"0 -
Have sent you a message.isam said:@SouthamObserver
I owe you £20 for a bet on Ed Miliband getting 50%+ in Doncaster at the GE... send me your deets!
0 -
Indeed. And that's why the Tory rules have the removal of the old leader and the election of the new as two distinct processes. What was remarkable in the IDS case was not that he was got rid of - that was the easy bit - it was the collective self-control in which all other potential candidates stood back from the field even though they could have contested it.TheScreamingEagles said:
That was more a coup/political assassination.david_herdson said:
Jack W would know.TheScreamingEagles said:
I was thinking just imagine what PB would have been like when the Tories had the magic circle and peers became Tory Leader/PM.david_herdson said:
The parties need to amend their rule books first. I think the Lib Dems and Tories both restrict candidates to sitting MPs. But yes, in a more multi-dimensional political world, positions like FM of Wales or Scotland, or Mayor of London is equivalent to a cabinet post, so why shouldn't someone who's been seen to have done a good job at that level be parachuted in to a national leadership.TheScreamingEagles said:
I keep on toying on doing a thread about how the next party leaders could be people not in Parliament, but being metro mayors, leaders in the devolved assemblies.Jonathan said:
Or Labour adapting to new politics? Arguably mayors have more power than government ministers.TheScreamingEagles said:On topic, it is interesting that high profile Labour are effectively quitting parliament to win these Mayoral jobs, but the Tories aren't.
An indication of Labour of being out of power for a while?
Just imagine if Steve Rotherham is a real success in Liverpool come 2020 people might see him as a potential Labour leader.
Or when Mrs May stands down people might look to Ruth Davidson as her successor .
That said, in effect, the IDS-Howard succession was as near as makes no difference a Magic Circle arrangement, which PB missed by only a year, and something similar could happen again.
Is one of the reasons why I like the Tory party, we have no compunction in removing poorly performing leaders.
I remember the night IDS was toppled, I think it was Francis Maude on tv saying it was only after IDS had lost the vote of no confidence that the parliamentary party decided on Michael Howard and there was no planning beforehand.
He said it with a straight face.0
