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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It looks like Dave’s reshuffle is really on…
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It looks like Dave’s reshuffle is really on…
From @isabelhardman: Chloe Smith and John Randall quit government ahead of reshuffle http://t.co/bbVLMvDeND
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;-)
What happened to your firm principles about leaving family members out of this? Or does that just apply to dead Marxists?
Chloe Smith married earlier this year and has a by election gain and marginal to retain in 2015. Allowing her to announce she is stepping down to concentrate on her constituency work before the reshuffle improves her re-election chances.
Only the Irish electorate would happily pay millions of pounds for a retirement home for crap politicians!
Maybe Dave realises he can't have 5 - yes 5 - strategists. Maybe Osborne is being put away by Crosby.
Have you found any actual evidence that Mrs Cameron wanted her husband to launch missiles or are you still relying on that single article you linked to before, which confirmed nothing of the sort?
If you haven't anything more then STFU!
Or is Miliband hamstrung by a pending law suit?
But given how Osborne screws up everything maybe this is a cull.
Dave never bothers about leadership on this electoral stuff so that's him taken care of.
Crosby already has Messina under him.
So he takes Osborne and Hunt out and he can run the show himself.
I did say so far....... :-)
Does this count against the theory that Clegg might get sent back to his homeland of Brussels?
I enjoyed the first episode of season three, but I was a bit surprised by the ending.
It's all in the algorithm, Neil.
Got any more on your libel of Toby Young, or have you given that one up now?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/10359533/Opec-head-blow-to-Salmond-Scotland-should-stay-in-UK.html
It was a bonkers decision. There can hardly be a more useless house of parliament in the western world.
And you and Sinn Fein on the same side. Wonders will never cease.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10359557/Labour-accused-of-bullying-behaviour-after-threatening-to-sue-health-secretary.html
"Labour has come under fire from campaigners after threatening to sue the Health Secretary in a row over care standards in failing NHS hospitals.""
"Julie Bailey, whose mother died in Stafford hospital and who later formed the Cure the NHS campaign group, said: “He is trying to silence Mr Hunt, but the uncomfortable truth is that patients died needlessly and suffered under Labour’s watch. He can’t sweep this under the carpet.”"
http://labourlist.org/2013/10/why-im-considering-legal-action-against-jeremy-hunt/
(*The only Upper House in the world larger than its respective Lower House!)
Joke all you want - and I never predicted a Labour landslide, just the Tories weren't working - which they aren't and they weren't.
Labour is killing the Tories in the marginals through its ground game. That is all that has and ever matters.
I missed about the first 2-3 episodes of both series of Alphas. Shame that got cancelled, but there we are.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-24391278
Locao pexpectation is that Anna Soubry will make it to Minister of State level at least, perhaps even a Cabinet jump?
Labour's ground game is so good we can have our leader call people bigots and still pick up the seat....
All joking aside. We are killing the Tories in the seats that matter day after day after day. The Tories are so far behind it's comical. Not least cos they have pent a £1 million on someone who does sweet FA to help.
On Homeland, the high point of the episode, which led to me making the sort of noises Carrie made on the stairs.
On Carrie's notes on the pad that her lawyer read, one of the things Carrie wrote was
"You killed my son - prepare to die"
Given Saul's role as Inigo Montoya, in the Princess Bride, I had a major Geekgasm.
Agree about Anna being promoted, but straight into Cabinet from PUSS would be most unusual.
Nice Sun fp btw.
Night all. Try to get some sleep with all this excitement going on.
It's clearly difficult to operate a solid ground game without incurring parking penalties.
If Adam Afriyie loses Windsor at the next election, I'm calling it a Tory Gain.
Kettering 1997
Edinburgh Pentlands 1997
Bristol West 1997
Enfield Southgate 1997
Braintree 1997
Galloway and Upper Nithsdale 1997
Bath 1992
Hertford and Stevenage 1979
Moray and Nairn 1974
Gloucester 1970
Doncaster 1964
Norwich South 1964
Shipley 1950
5 in 1945
Lord Ashcrofts mega poll. Will that do? Lucky for us the Tories are full of members like yourself who are just about as clueless as can be when it comes to winning a modern election.
But Andrea's research, below, shows how often it does happen.
And you know nothing about me and elections!
http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/06/07/do-the-size-of-ministers-majorities-matter/
Just whinging makes him look as weak as his leader.
Zimmer was always in the frame.
He has implied that he had applied for more from Jan and Feb 2010.
Can Burnham now not sue without it appearing as an admission that the accusation is true?
The hole Burnham is digging just got deeper.
Douglas Alexander +7% (swing 3.3 from SNP to Lab)
Jim Murphy +6.9% (swing 3.2% Con to Lab)
Jack Straw +5.7 (swing 1.1 from Con to Lab)
Lyam Byrne +5.1 (swing 3.6 from LD to Lab)
Alistair Darling +3.0 (swing 1.0 to Lab)
Tessa Jowell +2.3 (swing 0.8% to LD)
Shaun Woodward -2.7 (swing 1.9% to LD)
Ed Miliband -3.8 (swing 2.8 to Con)
Ben Bradshaw - 4 (swing 6% to Con)
Harriet Harman -4.1 (swing 3 to LD)
UK -6.2
Peter Hain -6.3 (swing 4.6 to Plaid)
Andy Burnham -6.5 (swing 4.9 to Con)
Bob Ainsworth -7.6 (swing 5.5% to Con)
Ed Balls -8.4 (swing 9.3% to Con)
David Miliband -8.8 (swing 6.4 to Con)
Hilary Benn -10.2 (swing 4.8 to LD)
John Denham -11.5 (swing 10.3 to Con)
Alan Johnson -12.6 (swing 7.9 to Con)
Yvette Cooper -17.1 (swing 12.5% to Con)
The top performances seem to be related to being in Scotland or in Asian dominated seats (recover from Iraq 2005 slippage). Some were prominent by a decade, so any increase due to being well known should have passed by then though.
Care to point out any polling from just before the general election showing the Tories walking it in the marginals?
I have a suggestion. A PB dictionary.
I already have one in the locker.
Lagershed: The period of time, after 9 pm, when alcohol-fuelled PBers talk more nonsense than usual.
Here is another suggestion for the dictionary. (Btw I am 52 years old).
Lingering: Continuing to exist and express an opinion beyond the age of 50.
Do not be ridiculous. at 2100 PB gentlemen are retiring to the computer room for whisky and cigars. Lager sounds suspiciously EU, and thereby infra dig.
Labour is miles and miles and miles ahead of the Tories on health. We always are and we always will be Stark, despite what you type on here wishing it were true.
No one liked him or trusted and did not believe anything he said.
We're canvassing for 8 hours every weekend, distributing leaflets, and various other things. If the Conservatives are doing anything in the ground war, we've not noticed - for example, they've not contributed to the main local paper for about 4 months now, even though it has a page open to all parties and everyone else uses it. My impression is that they've just collectively shrugged and reckon the national swing will decide it, que sera sera.
The headline of that article sums up the size of the political hole Andy Burnham continues to dig for himself tonight. Starkey is right, Ed Miliband will be livid that Andy Burnham is yet again acting as a maverick in a Labour Shadow Cabinet already too full of them. I know that the Labour party are desperate to hang onto their long held position of being the party of the NHS, but dragging this row out will continue to undermine that fact rather than enhance it.
Mr Miliband says he wants to 'make markets work in the public interest'
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2447975/Id-intervene-British-industry-I-PM-says-Miliband-Labour-leader-reveals-prepared-state-involved-justified.html
It isn't quite what he said looking at the quotes, but then he didn't quite say "we are bringing socalism back" either (but didn't try very hard to correct the record).
What he does say, it is clear PM Ed certainly would consider intervening a lot more markets than just power.
"City speculators" in the main invest on behalf of other people, not themselves.
The "gift" is from the taxpayers to Royal Mail employees. Most generous to be sure.