politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With the French Republican primary run-off tomorrow David Herd
Comments
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£40pn when we went in Devon!rottenborough said:
Last time I went, about eight years ago, it was £8 a night somewhere in Wales.MaxPB said:
£1400 for a week of camping is bloody expensive.rottenborough said:Interesting discussion. My original point was not so much - are these really JAMs? But the fact that they self-identify as such, which will be bad news for May. If being only one illness away from penury is one of the criteria, then huge swathes of the population fall into this one (although I note that the 100K people in DM article had illness income protection).
As another aside it seemed incredible to me that it cost them £1400 for a week's camping in Cornwall. It's been a few years since I camped, but that seems astonishing. Yuppie yurts?0 -
The chances are that what people see and feel in everyday life around them is a small part of the whole story. The evidence is much more likely to represent reality as a totality (or at least it should).MaxPB said:
Or maybe because what people see and feel in everyday life is completely contradictory to the "evidence" written by people in ivory towers?Gardenwalker said:Perhaps your mate is just sick of hearing your prejudice based mewlings.
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The 100K couple in DM (sorry I keep going on about them don't I? :-) ) also moaned about "peer pressure" at the school gates over fancy holidays and expensive new cars.0
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Who are these people?MaxPB said:
Or maybe because what people see and feel in everyday life is completely contradictory to the "evidence" written by people in ivory towers?Gardenwalker said:Perhaps your mate is just sick of hearing your prejudice based mewlings.
After your traitor remarks recently, you've really gone off the boil.
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But surely some views are unworthy of respect?Mortimer said:
No, I prefer democracy where views are respected. Not shouted down and definitely not shut out.JosiasJessop said:
So you prefer "non-evidence based policy idiocracy" ?0 -
It is still a choice , not 100% will want independence. However given precedent on Eire it would seem logical that dual citizenship would be an option , see TUD's earlier post. They are not going to change current rules just to spite a few Scots are they.Philip_Thompson said:
Worst case you could choose to remain British by opting against being Scottish. If you're going to do that, why go independent?malcolmg said:
I am sure there would be choice , and likely dual citizenship like Eire. Worst case I could chose to remain British.MaxPB said:
Post independence?malcolmg said:
You halfwit we are British citizensMaxPB said:
Going by this thread, yes. They also want British citizenship as well, apparently.SouthamObserver said:Having gained independence, why would any Scot want the country's pensioners to be at the mercy of the whims of a foreign government?
Looking up the answer to my question it seems that was the choice for Czechs/Slovaks - a forced choice of one or the other.0 -
I've recently realised how lucky I am to have a very socio-economically diverse group of family, friends and colleagues. It doesn't half help to keep me on the political common ground.MaxPB said:
Or maybe because what people see and feel in everyday life is completely contradictory to the "evidence" written by people in ivory towers?Gardenwalker said:Perhaps your mate is just sick of hearing your prejudice based mewlings.
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Blimey, things have changed (or maybe Wales is still cheap?). Still no where near £1400.MaxPB said:
£40pn when we went in Devon!rottenborough said:
Last time I went, about eight years ago, it was £8 a night somewhere in Wales.MaxPB said:
£1400 for a week of camping is bloody expensive.rottenborough said:Interesting discussion. My original point was not so much - are these really JAMs? But the fact that they self-identify as such, which will be bad news for May. If being only one illness away from penury is one of the criteria, then huge swathes of the population fall into this one (although I note that the 100K people in DM article had illness income protection).
As another aside it seemed incredible to me that it cost them £1400 for a week's camping in Cornwall. It's been a few years since I camped, but that seems astonishing. Yuppie yurts?0 -
WEll, I suppose he was a hero to many so factually correct.rottenborough said:
Early lunch in Belgium?PlatoSaid said:Ummm
Jean Claude Junker
With the death of #FidelCastro, the world has lost a man who was a hero for many. https://t.co/u0ULZoG8Fl0 -
A technocracy can still be democratic. The Key administration in NZ might be a good example.Mortimer said:
No, I prefer democracy where views are respected. Not shouted down and definitely not shut out.JosiasJessop said:
So you prefer "non-evidence based policy idiocracy" ?Mortimer said:
The arrogance of posts like this are exactly why I am pleased we haven't gone down the 'evidence based policy technocracy' that a good mate of mine keeps whining about.Gardenwalker said:
No it hasn't.MaxPB said:
Anecdote on PB has been a better gauge of real life than academic studies and polls for the last few years. Dismiss it at your peril.Gardenwalker said:
Yes. The academic evidence as opposed to your bar room anec-bollocks, is: limited.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Ever considered the impact of 300k young immigrants added to the UK each year, on housing costs and wage/salary rates?JosiasJessop said:
wrong when people work so hard and yet struggle to make progress.malcolmg said:
Sure lots are but from those four sets and the choices they have made , only one could be considered JAMS.JosiasJessop said:
Friends of ours are what I would call genuine JAMs; they have a reasonable lifestyle, but wonder whether they can afford to have and raise a second child. They do not have many savings and a heavyish mortgage. As he put it to me this week: "We're only one illness away from being in the sh*t."malcolmg said:
One out of the four could be counted, rest are just greedy whingers.Pulpstar said:
The £100k a year people are NOT Jams. They can piss OFF.rottenborough said:...
...
They're not exactly conspicuous spenders, either.
I have little savings , heavyish mortgage, wife does not work, etc but doubt anyone would have consider me a JAM given my income.
Sorry.
There's a greater tolerance for right wing dissent on here, for sure, which is helpful for questioning the soft left, elite consensus.
But I prefer fact to fiction, thanks, with the proviso that one is always open to new evidence.
What you really mean though is that you want PB to be safe space for a post-truth daily mail consensus.
Thankfully that hasn't happened yet.0 -
Not sure about this. Respecting the views of someone is not the same as endorsing them. Current liberal thought often smells a lot like it doesn't respect either views outside of the mainstream, or the people espousing them. At all.JosiasJessop said:
But surely some views are unworthy of respect?Mortimer said:
No, I prefer democracy where views are respected. Not shouted down and definitely not shut out.JosiasJessop said:
So you prefer "non-evidence based policy idiocracy" ?0 -
Again, that's part of the point. In the country as a whole immigration might be beneficial, especially taking into account highly skilled migrants that come to London or Edinburgh to work in finance or creative industries, but in parts of England and Wales there is undoubtedly a negative effect which people, especially those who campaigned for remain, dismissed at their own peril.JosiasJessop said:
The chances are that what people see and feel in everyday life around them is a small part of the whole story. The evidence is much more likely to represent reality as a totality (or at least it should).MaxPB said:
Or maybe because what people see and feel in everyday life is completely contradictory to the "evidence" written by people in ivory towers?Gardenwalker said:Perhaps your mate is just sick of hearing your prejudice based mewlings.
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Glamping, surely?MaxPB said:
£40pn when we went in Devon!rottenborough said:
Last time I went, about eight years ago, it was £8 a night somewhere in Wales.MaxPB said:
£1400 for a week of camping is bloody expensive.rottenborough said:Interesting discussion. My original point was not so much - are these really JAMs? But the fact that they self-identify as such, which will be bad news for May. If being only one illness away from penury is one of the criteria, then huge swathes of the population fall into this one (although I note that the 100K people in DM article had illness income protection).
As another aside it seemed incredible to me that it cost them £1400 for a week's camping in Cornwall. It's been a few years since I camped, but that seems astonishing. Yuppie yurts?
We paid £3 pppn in Cornwall a few years ago....
Unless I am really out of the loop on the camping scene?0 -
Morning all
Isn't the French Presidential system the same one Conservative MPs use to narrow the field down to the final two for the membership - well, not that they did that this time choosing May more or less by popular acclamation or the self-destruction of Leadsom or the assassination of Johnson by Gove etc -.
This was the system that knocked out Portillo by one vote in 2001 and put IDS in the last two.
Perhaps David would like to defend that as well.
Elsewhere, so Fidel is no more. He's an extraordinary figure - in some respects, the Mao or Stalin of the western hemisphere yet less so in others. His passing and I suspect Raul will soon follow offers huge possibilities and potential for Cuba.
I sense from those who have visited a huge energy on the island and if that can be channelled into something constructive Cuba could well be one of the big success stories of the next 30-40 years. Let's hope so.0 -
Was that 1950Mortimer said:
Glamping, surely?MaxPB said:
£40pn when we went in Devon!rottenborough said:
Last time I went, about eight years ago, it was £8 a night somewhere in Wales.MaxPB said:
£1400 for a week of camping is bloody expensive.rottenborough said:Interesting discussion. My original point was not so much - are these really JAMs? But the fact that they self-identify as such, which will be bad news for May. If being only one illness away from penury is one of the criteria, then huge swathes of the population fall into this one (although I note that the 100K people in DM article had illness income protection).
As another aside it seemed incredible to me that it cost them £1400 for a week's camping in Cornwall. It's been a few years since I camped, but that seems astonishing. Yuppie yurts?
We paid £3 pppn in Cornwall a few years ago....
Unless I am really out of the loop on the camping scene?0 -
Reopen Nominations should have been an option!Sunil_Prasannan said:
That was the run-off! There wasn't a "don't know" option!rcs1000 said:
You can't just quote the first round numbers. What happened in the run off?Sunil_Prasannan said:
2011 Referendum result:kle4 said:Don't we wonder why all elections are not AV?
No 2 AV 68%
Yes 2 AV 32%
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Amazing how the first sign of disagreement and the 'liberals' start talking about a construct of their own making which is highly illiberal.Gardenwalker said:
A technocracy can still be democratic. The Key administration in NZ might be a good example.Mortimer said:
No, I prefer democracy where views are respected. Not shouted down and definitely not shut out.JosiasJessop said:
So you prefer "non-evidence based policy idiocracy" ?Mortimer said:
The arrogance of posts like this are exactly why I am pleased we haven't gone down the 'evidence based policy technocracy' that a good mate of mine keeps whining about.Gardenwalker said:
No it hasn't.MaxPB said:
Anecdote on PB has been a better gauge of real life than academic studies and polls for the last few years. Dismiss it at your peril.Gardenwalker said:
Yes. The academic evidence as opposed to your bar room anec-bollocks, is: limited.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Ever considered the impact of 300k young immigrants added to the UK each year, on housing costs and wage/salary rates?JosiasJessop said:
wrong when people work so hard and yet struggle to make progress.malcolmg said:
Sure lots are but from those four sets and the choices they have made , only one could be considered JAMS.JosiasJessop said:
Friends of ours are what I would call genuine JAMs; they have a reasonable lifestyle, but wonder whether they can afford to have and raise a second child. They do not have many savings and a heavyish mortgage. As he put it to me this week: "We're only one illness away from being in the sh*t."malcolmg said:
One out of the four could be counted, rest are just greedy whingers.Pulpstar said:
The £100k a year people are NOT Jams. They can piss OFF.rottenborough said:...
...
They're not exactly conspicuous spenders, either.
I have little savings , heavyish mortgage, wife does not work, etc but doubt anyone would have consider me a JAM given my income.
Sorry.
There's a greater tolerance for right wing dissent on here, for sure, which is helpful for questioning the soft left, elite consensus.
But I prefer fact to fiction, thanks, with the proviso that one is always open to new evidence.
What you really mean though is that you want PB to be safe space for a post-truth daily mail consensus.
Thankfully that hasn't happened yet.0 -
YS shows all of the traits of one, I'm just pointing it out. He has previously said he wants the nation to suffer after leaving and for the EU to prosper.Gardenwalker said:
Who are these people?MaxPB said:
Or maybe because what people see and feel in everyday life is completely contradictory to the "evidence" written by people in ivory towers?Gardenwalker said:Perhaps your mate is just sick of hearing your prejudice based mewlings.
After your traitor remarks recently, you've really gone off the boil.
Those people are the ones who drove the leave victory. It's like your sidr have learned absolutely nothing over the last few months.0 -
No apologism here
Donald J Trump
Fidel Castro is dead!0 -
37 years before I was born? Unlikely...malcolmg said:
Was that 1950Mortimer said:
Glamping, surely?MaxPB said:
£40pn when we went in Devon!rottenborough said:
Last time I went, about eight years ago, it was £8 a night somewhere in Wales.MaxPB said:
£1400 for a week of camping is bloody expensive.rottenborough said:Interesting discussion. My original point was not so much - are these really JAMs? But the fact that they self-identify as such, which will be bad news for May. If being only one illness away from penury is one of the criteria, then huge swathes of the population fall into this one (although I note that the 100K people in DM article had illness income protection).
As another aside it seemed incredible to me that it cost them £1400 for a week's camping in Cornwall. It's been a few years since I camped, but that seems astonishing. Yuppie yurts?
We paid £3 pppn in Cornwall a few years ago....
Unless I am really out of the loop on the camping scene? 0 -
Not in my opinion. For instance, I neither endorse Leadsom's remarks in her infamous interview, nor do I respect them.Mortimer said:
Not sure about this. Respecting the views of someone is not the same as endorsing them. Current liberal thought often smells a lot like it doesn't respect either views outside of the mainstream, or the people espousing them. At all.JosiasJessop said:
But surely some views are unworthy of respect?Mortimer said:
No, I prefer democracy where views are respected. Not shouted down and definitely not shut out.JosiasJessop said:
So you prefer "non-evidence based policy idiocracy" ?
There are many other examples as well.0 -
8 of us though!Mortimer said:
Glamping, surely?MaxPB said:
£40pn when we went in Devon!rottenborough said:
Last time I went, about eight years ago, it was £8 a night somewhere in Wales.MaxPB said:
£1400 for a week of camping is bloody expensive.rottenborough said:Interesting discussion. My original point was not so much - are these really JAMs? But the fact that they self-identify as such, which will be bad news for May. If being only one illness away from penury is one of the criteria, then huge swathes of the population fall into this one (although I note that the 100K people in DM article had illness income protection).
As another aside it seemed incredible to me that it cost them £1400 for a week's camping in Cornwall. It's been a few years since I camped, but that seems astonishing. Yuppie yurts?
We paid £3 pppn in Cornwall a few years ago....
Unless I am really out of the loop on the camping scene?0 -
I think that is quite a hard argument with the carriers being built in Rosyth and the nuclear subs based at Faslane. We probably do alright out of defence spending at the moment although I accept the latest base closures are going to hit pretty hard. Not sure what Arbroath is going to do without Condor for example.malcolmg said:
Means nothing , someone has made some guesses on UK income. There is no Scottish state and no Scottish GDP. We are a subset of teh UK and it cannot be accurately extrapolated in any decent way shape or form.JosiasJessop said:
http://www.gov.scot/Resource/0041/00418420.pdfmalcolmg said:
Simple fact is we pay a share prorata per population and a fraction of that is spent in Scotland, whereas a shedload is spent in England. Numbers are asy to find if you are interested and further cuts planned.JosiasJessop said:
Care to share your thinking and figures for that?malcolmg said:
The money we spend already is not spent in Scotland, we are funding elsewhere, our spending would triple immediately for no increase.FF43 said:malcolmg said:
Fact we do not need to fund Westminster will mean we will be rolling in it , Trident rent will cover pensions.RobD said:
The Scottish government will surely enjoy it's four months of pensions payments already paid for after independence. After that I assume it'll start paying for them itself?malcolmg said:
Exactly it would be handled in an adult fashion unlike the mince that Carlotta keeps peddling. Hopefully her shift will end soon and Scott will be on with his tweets, who would ever have thought you could look forward to that.FF43 said:malcolmg said:FPT
CarlottaVance said:
» show previous quotes
Pensions don't 'accrue' - they are paid out of current revenue - so there are no 'pensions accrued in the UK' for the Scottish Government to pay to Scottish Pensioners. Looks like its ers.
If you take a prorata based on population which is still a guess , we get a fraction of the amount we contribute to military spending come back and be spent in Scotland.0 -
Agree on this but there is next to no evidence that the effect has been negative to anyone - economically at least.MaxPB said:
Again, that's part of the point. In the country as a whole immigration might be beneficial, especially taking into account highly skilled migrants that come to London or Edinburgh to work in finance or creative industries, but in parts of England and Wales there is undoubtedly a negative effect which people, especially those who campaigned for remain, dismissed at their own peril.JosiasJessop said:
The chances are that what people see and feel in everyday life around them is a small part of the whole story. The evidence is much more likely to represent reality as a totality (or at least it should).MaxPB said:
Or maybe because what people see and feel in everyday life is completely contradictory to the "evidence" written by people in ivory towers?Gardenwalker said:Perhaps your mate is just sick of hearing your prejudice based mewlings.
The real "harm" in my view has been the sense of cultural dislocation of very large volumes of migration. You can't quantify this, but it's a real thing. And yes, it was dismissed for too long as racism by some, to ultimately terrible effect.
0 -
Larry Elder
Fidel Castro's death raises an obvious question: Am I in the will?
https://t.co/HvENpunHfy
https://t.co/RbGnbQz1hE
#FidelCastro0 -
It is impossible to disagree with someone who scorns fact as a basis for argument. We are, conceptually, not in the same dimension. You are better off discussing with a French post modernist. Or a three year old.Mortimer said:
Amazing how the first sign of disagreement and the 'liberals' start talking about a construct of their own making which is highly illiberal.Gardenwalker said:
A technocracy can still be democratic. The Key administration in NZ might be a good example.Mortimer said:
No, I prefer democracy where views are respected. Not shouted down and definitely not shut out.JosiasJessop said:
So you prefer "non-evidence based policy idiocracy" ?Mortimer said:
The arrogance of posts like this are exactly why I am pleased we haven't gone down the 'evidence based policy technocracy' that a good mate of mine keeps whining about.Gardenwalker said:MaxPB said:
Anecdote on PB has been a better gauge of real life than academic studies and polls for the last few years. Dismiss it at your peril.Gardenwalker said:
Yes. The academic evidence as opposed to your bar room anec-bollocks, is: limited.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Ever considered the impact of 300k young immigrants added to the UK each year, on housing costs and wage/salary rates?JosiasJessop said:
wrong when people work so hard and yet struggle to make progress.malcolmg said:
Sure lots are but from those four sets and the choices they have made , only one could be considered JAMS.JosiasJessop said:
Friends of ours are what I would call genuine JAMs; they have a reasonable lifestyle, but wonder whether they can afford to have and raise a second child. They do not have many savings and a heavyish mortgage. As he put it to me this week: "We're only one illness away from being in the sh*t."malcolmg said:
One out of the four could be counted, rest are just greedy whingers.Pulpstar said:
The £100k a year people are NOT Jams. They can piss OFF.rottenborough said:...
...
They're not exactly conspicuous spenders, either.
I have little savings , heavyish mortgage, wife does not work, etc but doubt anyone would have consider me a JAM given my income.
Sorry.
What you really mean though is that you want PB to be safe space for a post-truth daily mail consensus.
Thankfully that hasn't happened yet.0 -
Next weekend's action.
Italy
Polls are giving +6% NO. I doubt many voters will tell pollsters "Hell yeah, I'm voting against the prime minister's plan" and then troop into polling stations and vote in favour of it, so NO looks good at 1.38.
Austria
Poll scores are much closer: +3% Hofer. Hofer may not be a buy at 1.44. Does anyone know how the Turkish EU application is playing in Austria, in particular what BritGovTelecom the BBC are reporting as Recep Erdogan's threat to send a horde of migrants westwards, unshaven and with knives between their teeth?0 -
So you want the tyranny of the minority?MaxPB said:
Again, that's part of the point. In the country as a whole immigration might be beneficial, especially taking into account highly skilled migrants that come to London or Edinburgh to work in finance or creative industries, but in parts of England and Wales there is undoubtedly a negative effect which people, especially those who campaigned for remain, dismissed at their own peril.JosiasJessop said:
The chances are that what people see and feel in everyday life around them is a small part of the whole story. The evidence is much more likely to represent reality as a totality (or at least it should).MaxPB said:
Or maybe because what people see and feel in everyday life is completely contradictory to the "evidence" written by people in ivory towers?Gardenwalker said:Perhaps your mate is just sick of hearing your prejudice based mewlings.
There is no answer to this: we have to go where the weightier evidence points, but be willing to change direction if the weight of evidence changes. But sadly, all too often policy goes towards those who shout the loudest.
However there is a good point to be made: *every* policy change has winners and losers (or losers who don't gain as much as the winners). A problem is that too often, the losers are the same groups of people.0 -
Not hard to disagree at all.Gardenwalker said:
It is impossible to disagree with someone who scorns fact as a basis for argument. We are, conceptually, not in the same dimension. You are better off discussing with a French post modernist. Or a three year old.Mortimer said:
Amazing how the first sign of disagreement and the 'liberals' start talking about a construct of their own making which is highly illiberal.Gardenwalker said:
A technocracy can still be democratic. The Key administration in NZ might be a good example.Mortimer said:
No, I prefer democracy where views are respected. Not shouted down and definitely not shut out.JosiasJessop said:
So you prefer "non-evidence based policy idiocracy" ?Mortimer said:
The arrogance of posts like this are exactly why I am pleased we haven't gone down the 'evidence based policy technocracy' that a good mate of mine keeps whining about.Gardenwalker said:MaxPB said:
Anecdote on PB has been a better gauge of real life than academic studies and polls for the last few years. Dismiss it at your peril.Gardenwalker said:
Yes. The academic evidence as opposed to your bar room anec-bollocks, is: limited.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Ever considered the impact of 300k young immigrants added to the UK each year, on housing costs and wage/salary rates?JosiasJessop said:
wrong when people work so hard and yet struggle to make progress.malcolmg said:
Sure lots are but from those four sets and the choices they have made , only one could be considered JAMS.JosiasJessop said:
...malcolmg said:
One out of the four could be counted, rest are just greedy whingers.Pulpstar said:
The £100k a year people are NOT Jams. They can piss OFF.rottenborough said:...
...
I have little savings , heavyish mortgage, wife does not work, etc but doubt anyone would have consider me a JAM given my income.
Sorry.
What you really mean though is that you want PB to be safe space for a post-truth daily mail consensus.
Thankfully that hasn't happened yet.
Just as it is not hard to disagree with someone who doesn't seem to understand the issue of data provenance, source bias and the dominance of the mainstream to the exclusion of dissent.
The problem is you cannot seem to accept any of those as possibilities. A huge blind spot, I'd say.0 -
Not just cultural, an Eastern European worker who is part time is eligible for WTC, CTC, housing benefit etc... after just 90 days. The studies rarely take that into account and HMRC and the government have refused to breakdown the recipients of tax credits and housing benefits in their statistics releases.Gardenwalker said:
Agree on this but there is next to no evidence that the effect has been negative to anyone - economically at least.MaxPB said:
Again, that's part of the point. In the country as a whole immigration might be beneficial, especially taking into account highly skilled migrants that come to London or Edinburgh to work in finance or creative industries, but in parts of England and Wales there is undoubtedly a negative effect which people, especially those who campaigned for remain, dismissed at their own peril.JosiasJessop said:
The chances are that what people see and feel in everyday life around them is a small part of the whole story. The evidence is much more likely to represent reality as a totality (or at least it should).MaxPB said:
Or maybe because what people see and feel in everyday life is completely contradictory to the "evidence" written by people in ivory towers?Gardenwalker said:Perhaps your mate is just sick of hearing your prejudice based mewlings.
The real "harm" in my view has been the sense of cultural dislocation of very large volumes of migration. You can't quantify this, but it's a real thing. And yes, it was dismissed for too long as racism by some, to ultimately terrible effect.
AIUI this is the advice given in Romania, come and stay with a friend for 90 days with children, work part time in any job, be "evicted" by the friend after 90 days. The council is then liable to give that person housing, either in the private sector and provide housing benefit or in public housing, pushing everyone else down the list, they can also then claim working tax credit and child tax credit.
The other scam is "self employed" big issue sellers being eligible for all those benefits as well.0 -
As much as I think the triple lock has to go, I'd like to know if Crabb was a dissenting voice in Cabinet when this was the policy of Cameron and Osborne:
http://tinyurl.com/zlcaeee0 -
tlg86 said:
As much as I think the triple lock has to go, I'd like to know if Crabb was a dissenting voice in Cabinet when this was the policy of Cameron and Osborne:
http://tinyurl.com/zlcaeee
0 -
Poll-derived indications of Le Pen's score in R1 of the presidential election deserve no greater credibility than polling for the Republicans' R1 primary. Sure, a scandal could knock her out - that's true of any candidate - but other events that are in keeping with the flow of the times and that have a strong emotional impact could boost her chances a lot.0
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I very much hope it's a leftist v Marine Le Pen in the French election.
It would be a brilliant betting opportunity. And a Marine Le Pen victory would be another hammer blow for globalization & the EU.0 -
In a one man tentMaxPB said:
8 of us though!Mortimer said:
Glamping, surely?MaxPB said:
£40pn when we went in Devon!rottenborough said:
Last time I went, about eight years ago, it was £8 a night somewhere in Wales.MaxPB said:
£1400 for a week of camping is bloody expensive.rottenborough said:Interesting discussion. My original point was not so much - are these really JAMs? But the fact that they self-identify as such, which will be bad news for May. If being only one illness away from penury is one of the criteria, then huge swathes of the population fall into this one (although I note that the 100K people in DM article had illness income protection).
As another aside it seemed incredible to me that it cost them £1400 for a week's camping in Cornwall. It's been a few years since I camped, but that seems astonishing. Yuppie yurts?
We paid £3 pppn in Cornwall a few years ago....
Unless I am really out of the loop on the camping scene?0 -
Oh, *now* you bring up methodological issues.Mortimer said:
Not hard to disagree at all.Gardenwalker said:
It is impossible to disagree with someone who scorns fact as a basis for argument. We are, conceptually, not in the same dimension. You are better off discussing with a French post modernist. Or a three year old.Mortimer said:
Amazing how the first sign of disagreement and the 'liberals' start talking about a construct of their own making which is highly illiberal.Gardenwalker said:
A technocracy can still be democratic. The Key administration in NZ might be a good example.Mortimer said:
No, I prefer democracy where views are respected. Not shouted down and definitely not shut out.JosiasJessop said:
So you prefer "non-evidence based policy idiocracy" ?Mortimer said:Gardenwalker said:MaxPB said:
Anecdote on PB has been a better gauge of real life than academic studies and polls for the last few years. Dismiss it at your peril.Gardenwalker said:
Yes. The academic evidence as opposed to your bar room anec-bollocks, is: limited.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Ever considered the impact of 300k young immigrants added to the UK each year, on housing costs and wage/salary rates?JosiasJessop said:
wrong when people work so hard and yet struggle to make progress.malcolmg said:
Sure lots are but from those four sets and the choices they have made , only one could be considered JAMS.JosiasJessop said:
...malcolmg said:
One out of the four could be counted, rest are just greedy whingers.Pulpstar said:
The £100k a year people are NOT Jams. They can piss OFF.rottenborough said:...
...
I have little savings , heavyish mortgage, wife does not work, etc but doubt anyone would have consider me a JAM given my income.
Sorry.
What you really mean though is that you want PB to be safe space for a post-truth daily mail consensus.
Thankfully that hasn't happened yet.
Just as it is not hard to disagree with someone who doesn't seem to understand the issue of data provenance, source bias and the dominance of the mainstream to the exclusion of dissent.
The problem is you cannot seem to accept any of those as possibilities. A huge blind spot, I'd say.
Before you were simply down on fact.
Welcome back to the world of rationality.0 -
When I was walking into Knoydart once, I came across eight German lads who were camping in a large octagonal tent a little like a teepee, with a hole in the top to let smoke out from their fires. Never seen a mobile tent like it, before or after.malcolmg said:
In a one man tentMaxPB said:
8 of us though!Mortimer said:
Glamping, surely?MaxPB said:
£40pn when we went in Devon!rottenborough said:
Last time I went, about eight years ago, it was £8 a night somewhere in Wales.MaxPB said:
£1400 for a week of camping is bloody expensive.rottenborough said:Interesting discussion. My original point was not so much - are these really JAMs? But the fact that they self-identify as such, which will be bad news for May. If being only one illness away from penury is one of the criteria, then huge swathes of the population fall into this one (although I note that the 100K people in DM article had illness income protection).
As another aside it seemed incredible to me that it cost them £1400 for a week's camping in Cornwall. It's been a few years since I camped, but that seems astonishing. Yuppie yurts?
We paid £3 pppn in Cornwall a few years ago....
Unless I am really out of the loop on the camping scene?
They were on their way to a scout jamboree somewhere, and spent lots of time swimming naked in streams. Somewhat alarmingly so.0 -
Hammond's announcement on the review of the triple lock was far and away the most politically important part of the Autumn Statement. Pensioner benefits cost nearly £100 billion every year and had we genuinely been "all in this together" these, along with other areas of Government spending foolishly ring-fenced by the Coalition, we would doubtless have seen some reductions.tlg86 said:As much as I think the triple lock has to go, I'd like to know if Crabb was a dissenting voice in Cabinet when this was the policy of Cameron and Osborne:
http://tinyurl.com/zlcaeee
The problem is the pensioners are the core Conservative support base. To go after these benefits would have been the epitome of biting the hand that feeds you. Conservatives know there is no power without the pensioner vote.
The other aspect to this is the rising cost of adult social care. Ask any council financial officer what their area of biggest budgetary pressure is and they will tell you it's adult social care and this has been highlighted to central Government by a cross section of Councils including Conservative-run counties whose budgets are buckling under these pressures.
0 -
Mr Morris Dancer, you are Nick Holland and I claim my five pounds! It was the haddock reference that gave you away
"Nick Holland: Sigh.. Grosjean... despair... nothing a cattle prod & slap with a damp haddock wouldn't fix. Give some feedback man!" From BBC website0 -
Corbyn speaks:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-38117068
Apparently Castro was a "huge figure in our lives"
Maybe yours matey, maybe yours ...0 -
Yep. Don't disagree. Our welfare system is not designed to deal with high volume immigration.MaxPB said:
Not just cultural, an Eastern European worker who is part time is eligible for WTC, CTC, housing benefit etc... after just 90 days. The studies rarely take that into account and HMRC and the government have refused to breakdown the recipients of tax credits and housing benefits in their statistics releases.Gardenwalker said:
Agree on this but there is next to no evidence that the effect has been negative to anyone - economically at least.MaxPB said:
Again, that's part of the point. In the country as a whole immigration might be beneficial, especially taking into account highly skilled migrants that come to London or Edinburgh to work in finance or creative industries, but in parts of England and Wales there is undoubtedly a negative effect which people, especially those who campaigned for remain, dismissed at their own peril.JosiasJessop said:
The chances are that what people see and feel in everyday life around them is a small part of the whole story. The evidence is much more likely to represent reality as a totality (or at least it should).MaxPB said:
Or maybe because what people see and feel in everyday life is completely contradictory to the "evidence" written by people in ivory towers?Gardenwalker said:Perhaps your mate is just sick of hearing your prejudice based mewlings.
The real "harm" in my view has been the sense of cultural dislocation of very large volumes of migration. You can't quantify this, but it's a real thing. And yes, it was dismissed for too long as racism by some, to ultimately terrible effect.
AIUI this is the advice given in Romania, come and stay with a friend for 90 days with children, work part time in any job, be "evicted" by the friend after 90 days. The council is then liable to give that person housing, either in the private sector and provide housing benefit or in public housing, pushing everyone else down the list, they can also then claim working tax credit and child tax credit.
The other scam is "self employed" big issue sellers being eligible for all those benefits as well.
But that doesn't mean immigration is causing anyone economic harm.
And we all know - or should - that immigration are molto molto more likely to be in work and paying taxes than the rest of us.
As Dylan said, pity the poor immigrant.0 -
People like this used to be rare on PB.vik said:I very much hope it's a leftist v Marine Le Pen in the French election.
It would be a brilliant betting opportunity. And a Marine Le Pen victory would be another hammer blow for globalization & the EU.
Dark times.0 -
Great to have posts on actual political betting rather than remain/brexit willy waving.Dromedary said:Next weekend's action.
Italy
Polls are giving +6% NO. I doubt many voters will tell pollsters "Hell yeah, I'm voting against the prime minister's plan" and then troop into polling stations and vote in favour of it, so NO looks good at 1.38.
Austria
Poll scores are much closer: +3% Hofer. Hofer may not be a buy at 1.44. Does anyone know how the Turkish EU application is playing in Austria, in particular what BritGovTelecom the BBC are reporting as Recep Erdogan's threat to send a horde of migrants westwards, unshaven and with knives between their teeth?0 -
However the fact they are working and paying tax does not compensate us having to pay the locals who get benefits due to th eimmigrants having the jobs, ergo less immigrants and more locals forced to work would be a far better situation. Shangri la would be full employment and only enough immigration to take up any unfilled jobs. 3 million immigrants working does not fund 3 million locals parked on their butts.Gardenwalker said:
Yep. Don't disagree. Our welfare system is not designed to deal with high volume immigration.MaxPB said:
ng, pushing everyone else down the list, they can also then claim working tax credit and child tax credit.Gardenwalker said:
Agree on this but there is next to no evidence that the effect has been negative to anyone - economically at least.MaxPB said:
Again, that's part of the point. In the country as a whole immigration might be beneficial, especially taking into account highly skilled migrants that come to London or Edinburgh to work in finance or creative industries, but in parts of England and Wales there is undoubtedly a negative effect which people, especially those who campaigned for remain, dismissed at their own peril.JosiasJessop said:
The chances are that what people see and feel in everyday life around them is a small part of the whole story. The evidence is much more likely to represent reality as a totality (or at least it should).MaxPB said:
Or maybe because what people see and feel in everyday life is completely contradictory to the "evidence" written by people in ivory towers?Gardenwalker said:Perhaps your mate is just sick of hearing your prejudice based mewlings.
The real "harm" in my view has been the sense of cultural dislocation of very large volumes of migration. You can't quantify this, but it's a real thing. And yes, it was dismissed for too long as racism by some, to ultimately terrible effect.
The other scam is "self employed" big issue sellers being eligible for all those benefits as well.
But that doesn't mean immigration is causing anyone economic harm.
And we all know - or should - that immigration are molto molto more likely to be in work and paying taxes than the rest of us.
As Dylan said, pity the poor immigrant.0 -
Again, how do we know that it isn't causing economic harm. A part time worker receiving the full range of benefits will get far more out of the system than they will ever put in. That's before taking into account benefits in kind such as education for children and free healthcare.Gardenwalker said:Yep. Don't disagree. Our welfare system is not designed to deal with high volume immigration.
But that doesn't mean immigration is causing anyone economic harm.
And we all know - or should - that immigration are molto molto more likely to be in work and paying taxes than the rest of us.
As Dylan said, pity the poor immigrant.
As for working, its not really a massive difference. I have the figures and I'll look them up in a bit but I think EU employment is about 80% but Bulgaria and Romania is abut 78% vs 75% for UK nationals.0 -
Jeremy Corbyn praises Fidel Castro's 'heroism' after death announced
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/26/fidel-castros-cuba-beacon-light-says-ex-london-mayor-ken-livingstone/
Another tyrant celebrated by Labour's leadership.0 -
Except the quantity of jobs is never finite. More migrants equals more demand equals more jobs. In fact for areas like construction migration disproportionately boosts demand and thus jobs.malcolmg said:
However the fact they are working and paying tax does not compensate us having to pay the locals who get benefits due to th eimmigrants having the jobs, ergo less immigrants and more locals forced to work would be a far better situation. Shangri la would be full employment and only enough immigration to take up any unfilled jobs. 3 million immigrants working does not fund 3 million locals parked on their butts.Gardenwalker said:
Yep. Don't disagree. Our welfare system is not designed to deal with high volume immigration.MaxPB said:
ng, pushing everyone else down the list, they can also then claim working tax credit and child tax credit.Gardenwalker said:
Agree on this but there is next to no evidence that the effect has been negative to anyone - economically at least.MaxPB said:
Again, that's part of the point. In the country as a whole immigration might be beneficial, especially taking into account highly skilled migrants that come to London or Edinburgh to work in finance or creative industries, but in parts of England and Wales there is undoubtedly a negative effect which people, especially those who campaigned for remain, dismissed at their own peril.JosiasJessop said:
The chances are that what people see and feel in everyday life around them is a small part of the whole story. The evidence is much more likely to represent reality as a totality (or at least it should).MaxPB said:
Or maybe because what people see and feel in everyday life is completely contradictory to the "evidence" written by people in ivory towers?Gardenwalker said:Perhaps your mate is just sick of hearing your prejudice based mewlings.
The real "harm" in my view has been the sense of cultural dislocation of very large volumes of migration. You can't quantify this, but it's a real thing. And yes, it was dismissed for too long as racism by some, to ultimately terrible effect.
The other scam is "self employed" big issue sellers being eligible for all those benefits as well.
But that doesn't mean immigration is causing anyone economic harm.
And we all know - or should - that immigration are molto molto more likely to be in work and paying taxes than the rest of us.
As Dylan said, pity the poor immigrant.0 -
The one week I don't captain Aguero and look what happens!0
-
Say the population of the West is1 billion and that one in 10,000 people are famous. So there are 100,000 famous people alive in the West. Lets say that, on average, they live to 60, to account for those who die young. We should expect an average of about 4.5 celebrities to die each day.rottenborough said:
Another celeb gone in 2016.FrancisUrquhart said:
"His supporters said he had given Cuba back to the people. Critics saw him as a dictator."PlatoSaid said:Jenna Abrams
That awkward moment when you'd been fighting capitalism for your whole life and then you die on #blackfriday
Bye, Fidel Castro
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-38114953
Hmmm...doesn't that describe every dictator?0 -
Realistically though, due to the shredding of private pensions, most Britons will be soley dependent on the govt state pension. If people are to be expected to save for their own pensions, then we need a return to decent interest rates on savings and annuities. I don't think our JAMs and zombie housing market could cope with the borrowing side of that for the forseable future. So State pensions are going to need to stay liveable. That is Hammond's dilemma.stodge said:
Hammond's announcement on the review of the triple lock was far and away the most politically important part of the Autumn Statement. Pensioner benefits cost nearly £100 billion every year and had we genuinely been "all in this together" these, along with other areas of Government spending foolishly ring-fenced by the Coalition, we would doubtless have seen some reductions.tlg86 said:As much as I think the triple lock has to go, I'd like to know if Crabb was a dissenting voice in Cabinet when this was the policy of Cameron and Osborne:
http://tinyurl.com/zlcaeee
The problem is the pensioners are the core Conservative support base. To go after these benefits would have been the epitome of biting the hand that feeds you. Conservatives know there is no power without the pensioner vote.
The other aspect to this is the rising cost of adult social care. Ask any council financial officer what their area of biggest budgetary pressure is and they will tell you it's adult social care and this has been highlighted to central Government by a cross section of Councils including Conservative-run counties whose budgets are buckling under these pressures.0 -
Oh god, another fallacy.malcolmg said:
However the fact they are working and paying tax does not compensate us having to pay the locals who get benefits due to th eimmigrants having the jobs, ergo less immigrants and more locals forced to work would be a far better situation. Shangri la would be full employment and only enough immigration to take up any unfilled jobs. 3 million immigrants working does not fund 3 million locals parked on their butts.Gardenwalker said:
Yep. Don't disagree. Our welfare system is not designed to deal with high volume immigration.MaxPB said:
ng, pushing everyone else down the list, they can also then claim working tax credit and child tax credit.Gardenwalker said:
Agree on this but there is next to no evidence that the effect has been negative to anyone - economically at least.MaxPB said:
ampaigned for remain, dismissed at their own peril.JosiasJessop said:
The chances are that what people see and feel in everyday life around them is a small part of the whole story. The evidence is much more likely to represent reality as a totality (or at least it should).MaxPB said:
Or maybe because what people see and feel in everyday life is completely contradictory to the "evidence" written by people in ivory towers?Gardenwalker said:Perhaps your mate is just sick of hearing your prejudice based mewlings.
The real "harm" in my view has been the sense of cultural dislocation of very large volumes of migration. You can't quantify this, but it's a real thing. And yes, it was dismissed for too long as racism by some, to ultimately terrible effect.
The other scam is "self employed" big issue sellers being eligible for all those benefits as well.
But that doesn't mean immigration is causing anyone economic harm.
And we all know - or should - that immigration are molto molto more likely to be in work and paying taxes than the rest of us.
As Dylan said, pity the poor immigrant.
It is tedious for me, and as Pulpstar pointed out it is tedious for everyone else.
Immigrants are not stealing our jobs, subsidised by in-work benefits or not.
What has happened is that we have preferred to import (relatively) skilled labour in favour of dealing with our own, very low-skilled population.
The result is not high unemployment, but low skilled folks being stuck in low skill and low wage jobs.0 -
That's another one for CCHQ to bank.FrancisUrquhart said:Jeremy Corbyn praises Fidel Castro's 'heroism' after death announced
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/26/fidel-castros-cuba-beacon-light-says-ex-london-mayor-ken-livingstone/
Another tyrant celebrated by Labour's leadership.0 -
They have that much to go at they must have had to buy serious extra server space to store all this stuff!Casino_Royale said:
That's another one for CCHQ to bank.FrancisUrquhart said:Jeremy Corbyn praises Fidel Castro's 'heroism' after death announced
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/26/fidel-castros-cuba-beacon-light-says-ex-london-mayor-ken-livingstone/
Another tyrant celebrated by Labour's leadership.0 -
You are not comparing like with like.MaxPB said:
Again, how do we know that it isn't causing economic harm. A part time worker receiving the full range of benefits will get far more out of the system than they will ever put in. That's before taking into account benefits in kind such as education for children and free healthcare.Gardenwalker said:Yep. Don't disagree. Our welfare system is not designed to deal with high volume immigration.
But that doesn't mean immigration is causing anyone economic harm.
And we all know - or should - that immigration are molto molto more likely to be in work and paying taxes than the rest of us.
As Dylan said, pity the poor immigrant.
As for working, its not really a massive difference. I have the figures and I'll look them up in a bit but I think EU employment is about 80% but Bulgaria and Romania is abut 78% vs 75% for UK nationals.
We do not - mostly - import Romanian old age pensioners.0 -
It's hard to imagine, given the revulsion with which the FN is held by the French Establishment, that there are any undisclosed skeletons in Le Pen's closet.Dromedary said:Poll-derived indications of Le Pen's score in R1 of the presidential election deserve no greater credibility than polling for the Republicans' R1 primary. Sure, a scandal could knock her out - that's true of any candidate - but other events that are in keeping with the flow of the times and that have a strong emotional impact could boost her chances a lot.
0 -
C'mon, so Jeremy Corbyn isn't great with words and hasn't chosen absolutely the right ones in his eulogy. Fidel Castro was an exceptionally impressive figure. Of course things about the regime can be criticised, but slogans such as "200 million children sleep in the streets, and not one of them is Cuban" say a lot in Latin America. Maybe some British civil servants could call in the Cubans to sort out the NHS.JosiasJessop said:Corbyn speaks:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-38117068
Apparently Castro was a "huge figure in our lives"
Maybe yours matey, maybe yours ...0 -
I don't know, but it is hard to see it as anything but good for Hofer.Dromedary said:Next weekend's action.
. Does anyone know how the Turkish EU application is playing in Austria, in particular what BritGovTelecom the BBC are reporting as Recep Erdogan's threat to send a horde of migrants westwards, unshaven and with knives between their teeth?0 -
One very big cheer from the large British contingent in Abu Dhabi! 0
-
With regard to the first and last you are only really talking about SE England.Gardenwalker said:
See my post above.malcolmg said:
for sure and it seems to be much more common in UK than others, something far wrong with the governing of this country.JosiasJessop said:
Yep, fair enough.malcolmg said:
Sure lots are but from those four sets and the choices they have made , only one could be considered JAMS.JosiasJessop said:
Friends of ours are what I would call genuine JAMs; they have a reasonable lifestyle, but wonder whether they can afford to have and raise a second child. They do not have many savings and a heavyish mortgage. As he put it to me this week: "We're only one illness away from being in the sh*t."malcolmg said:
One out of the four could be counted, rest are just greedy whingers.Pulpstar said:
The £100k a year people are NOT Jams. They can piss OFF.rottenborough said:There's trouble ahead for May if the Daily Mail are running articles questioning who is a JAM and finding some of them on £100K a year. If people self-identify like this, it will be most of the population and how on earth is May going to afford to make so many people better off?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3972832/So-really-Just-Managing-Struggling-JAMS-government-priority-just-interviews-thinks-label-applies-them.html
They're not exactly conspicuous spenders, either.
I have little savings , heavyish mortgage, wife does not work, etc but doubt anyone would have consider me a JAM given my income.
What annoys me is that our friends are strivers: she has a full-time job, whilst he looks after their son (I have to take part of the blame for that!) and does some contracting whilst their son naps. To make ends meet, they even take in lodgers in their spare rooms (usually students at language schools).
Yet they're still only just managing. Part of this is because they're in Cambridge, which can be an expensive place to live with a mortgage. But something's wrong when people work so hard and yet struggle to make progress.
Housing.
Childcare.
Commuting.
The U.K. triple whammy.0 -
Have you been to Cuba? Do you really think that was anything more than a slogan?Dromedary said:
C'mon, so Jeremy Corbyn isn't great with words and hasn't chosen absolutely the right ones in his eulogy. Fidel Castro was an exceptionally impressive figure. Of course things about the regime can be criticised, but slogans such as "200 million children sleep in the streets, and not one of them is Cuban" say a lot in Latin America. Maybe some British civil servants could call in the Cubans to sort out the NHS.JosiasJessop said:Corbyn speaks:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-38117068
Apparently Castro was a "huge figure in our lives"
Maybe yours matey, maybe yours ...
I suggest you read up about the 'Special Period'0 -
I didn't say immigration causes harm, I don't think it does. I think unlimited unskilled immigration from eastern Europe does. The vote to leave is a symptom of that harm, whether or not you can see it or want to see it is irrelevant.Gardenwalker said:
You are not comparing like with like.MaxPB said:
Again, how do we know that it isn't causing economic harm. A part time worker receiving the full range of benefits will get far more out of the system than they will ever put in. That's before taking into account benefits in kind such as education for children and free healthcare.Gardenwalker said:Yep. Don't disagree. Our welfare system is not designed to deal with high volume immigration.
But that doesn't mean immigration is causing anyone economic harm.
And we all know - or should - that immigration are molto molto more likely to be in work and paying taxes than the rest of us.
As Dylan said, pity the poor immigrant.
As for working, its not really a massive difference. I have the figures and I'll look them up in a bit but I think EU employment is about 80% but Bulgaria and Romania is abut 78% vs 75% for UK nationals.
We do not - mostly - import Romanian old age pensioners.
Amazingly the EU seems to have opened the door for transactional immigration with their payment for citizenship idea. If we can agree an annual few of around £3000 per migrant unskilled migration from Europe will come to an end.0 -
Given the exponential growth in the number of celebrities we'll have dozens every day before long. The culture will be overwhelmed with gratuitous mourning for nobodies.MTimT said:
Say the population of the West is1 billion and that one in 10,000 people are famous. So there are 100,000 famous people alive in the West. Lets say that, on average, they live to 60, to account for those who die young. We should expect an average of about 4.5 celebrities to die each day.rottenborough said:
Another celeb gone in 2016.FrancisUrquhart said:
"His supporters said he had given Cuba back to the people. Critics saw him as a dictator."PlatoSaid said:Jenna Abrams
That awkward moment when you'd been fighting capitalism for your whole life and then you die on #blackfriday
Bye, Fidel Castro
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-38114953
Hmmm...doesn't that describe every dictator?0 -
I see Galloway has excelled himself:
https://mobile.twitter.com/georgegalloway/status/8024334348952903680 -
Castro and Cuba was a rare example (unique?) of a socialist revolution going sort of half right .Most end up in absolute tyranny with misery for years (Mao 's Chin , North Korea etc).To that end Castro is remarkable in showing how some good things can be sustained from communist revolutions . The trouble with left win g revolutions is that all th epower ends up in the hands of 1 or a handful of people - most turn out to be just as greedy as anybody else and control freaks - Cuba was lucky Castro was not fully like this0
-
What happened to all the native unskilled building workers whose jobs are now being done by Poles, Romanians, Bulgarians, Lithuanians, etc.? If only there were stronger trade unions, and ones that were open on the same basis to everyone doing a job, whether immigrant or native, things would be much better. "Hello. Just in from Romania? Great. Here's your union card." The IWW wouldn't have stood for one group of workers being set against another.Gardenwalker said:
Immigrants are not stealing our jobs, subsidised by in-work benefits or not.
What has happened is that we have preferred to import (relatively) skilled labour in favour of dealing with our own, very low-skilled population.
The result is not high unemployment, but low skilled folks being stuck in low skill and low wage jobs.0 -
For some on the Left, anything can be excused for a state-run health service.MTimT said:
Have you been to Cuba? Do you really think that was anything more than a slogan?Dromedary said:
C'mon, so Jeremy Corbyn isn't great with words and hasn't chosen absolutely the right ones in his eulogy. Fidel Castro was an exceptionally impressive figure. Of course things about the regime can be criticised, but slogans such as "200 million children sleep in the streets, and not one of them is Cuban" say a lot in Latin America. Maybe some British civil servants could call in the Cubans to sort out the NHS.JosiasJessop said:Corbyn speaks:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-38117068
Apparently Castro was a "huge figure in our lives"
Maybe yours matey, maybe yours ...
I suggest you read up about the 'Special Period'0 -
Unskilled builders? I think you've confused us with the Jerries.Dromedary said:
What happened to all the native unskilled building workers whose jobs are now being done by Poles, Romanians, Bulgarians, Lithuanians, etc.? If only there were stronger trade unions, and ones that were open on the same basis to everyone doing a job, whether immigrant or native, things would be much better. "Hello. Just in from Romania? Great. Here's your union card." The IWW wouldn't have stood for one group of workers being set against another.Gardenwalker said:
Immigrants are not stealing our jobs, subsidised by in-work benefits or not.
What has happened is that we have preferred to import (relatively) skilled labour in favour of dealing with our own, very low-skilled population.
The result is not high unemployment, but low skilled folks being stuck in low skill and low wage jobs. 0 -
Who exactly do you feel you're impressing with this daft 'standard bearer for rationality' claptrap. Not being able to see that fashionable views are just that, rather than infallible truth, indicates a very pedestrian, almost luddite way of thinking.Gardenwalker said:
People like this used to be rare on PB.vik said:I very much hope it's a leftist v Marine Le Pen in the French election.
It would be a brilliant betting opportunity. And a Marine Le Pen victory would be another hammer blow for globalization & the EU.
Dark times.0 -
Michael Moynihan
Pulled Armando Valladares's prison memoir "Against All Hope" from the shelf. First page is especially relevant today https://t.co/Ug9HwE8oER0 -
Middlesboro great value for the away win at Leicester. We are missing our only decent midfielder and Zeiler is a liability in goal.
Off to the match. . .0 -
Not only his but any future CoE and indeed any Government.foxinsoxuk said:Realistically though, due to the shredding of private pensions, most Britons will be soley dependent on the govt state pension. If people are to be expected to save for their own pensions, then we need a return to decent interest rates on savings and annuities. I don't think our JAMs and zombie housing market could cope with the borrowing side of that for the forseable future. So State pensions are going to need to stay liveable. That is Hammond's dilemma.
We see some response in raising the retirement age but the ultimate endpoint is there will be no pension with people expected to plan for retirement from an early age and only stopping work when they can afford to (which may be never in many instances).
0 -
@ChukaUmuna: Interesting reading the Castro obituaries. In the end, I'm a democrat and find it hard to see past the fact he was a dictator.
Gone up in my estimation......0 -
Corbyn and Livingstone were big fans. No doubt McDonnell is too.PlatoSaid said:Michael Moynihan
Pulled Armando Valladares's prison memoir "Against All Hope" from the shelf. First page is especially relevant today https://t.co/Ug9HwE8oER0 -
You could safely end your comment at "excused"Casino_Royale said:
For some on the Left, anything can be excused for a state-run health service.MTimT said:
Have you been to Cuba? Do you really think that was anything more than a slogan?Dromedary said:
C'mon, so Jeremy Corbyn isn't great with words and hasn't chosen absolutely the right ones in his eulogy. Fidel Castro was an exceptionally impressive figure. Of course things about the regime can be criticised, but slogans such as "200 million children sleep in the streets, and not one of them is Cuban" say a lot in Latin America. Maybe some British civil servants could call in the Cubans to sort out the NHS.JosiasJessop said:Corbyn speaks:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-38117068
Apparently Castro was a "huge figure in our lives"
Maybe yours matey, maybe yours ...
I suggest you read up about the 'Special Period'0 -
Hmm where's Tim when you need himCasino_Royale said:I see Galloway has excelled himself:
https://mobile.twitter.com/georgegalloway/status/8024334348952903680 -
Yes, respect to the man. Is he up for deselection.CarlottaVance said:@ChukaUmuna: Interesting reading the Castro obituaries. In the end, I'm a democrat and find it hard to see past the fact he was a dictator.
Gone up in my estimation......
0 -
Agreed. Boro have only lost once away from home, so far this season.foxinsoxuk said:Middlesboro great value for the away win at Leicester. We are missing our only decent midfielder and Zeiler is a liability in goal.
Off to the match. . .0 -
0
-
All in all everyone should be judged by their record and their results.
And here are the results of Castro, compared with the closest equivalents and neighbours, Dominican Republic and Guatemala:
GDP per capita.
Cuba: $5500
Dominican Rep.: $6500
Guatemala: $3100
Literacy rate.
Cuba 99.7%
Dominican Rep. 91.8%
Guatemala 79.3%
There is no data from Cuba about income inequality, you can make presumptions that is should be lower than other central american countries that hold the world record.
Dominican Rep. 45.7
Guatemala 55.1
Crime rate, homicides per 100k inhabitants.
Cuba 4.2
Dominican Rep. 17.4
Guatemala 31.2
Life expectancy
Cuba 79.1
Dominican Rep. 73.9
Guatemala 71.9
Overall it doesn't look bad, similar levels of economic development, with greater literacy, less crime, and longer longevity.
It should be a model for Central American countries, though probably not outside of that region and definitely not outside Latin America.0 -
The case of Fidel Castro reminds me of the chinese proverb "Black cats, white cats, it doesn't matter as long as it catches mice", which was used by Deng Xiaoping to move China towards the black cat of capitalism.state_go_away said:Castro and Cuba was a rare example (unique?) of a socialist revolution going sort of half right .Most end up in absolute tyranny with misery for years (Mao 's Chin , North Korea etc).To that end Castro is remarkable in showing how some good things can be sustained from communist revolutions . The trouble with left win g revolutions is that all th epower ends up in the hands of 1 or a handful of people - most turn out to be just as greedy as anybody else and control freaks - Cuba was lucky Castro was not fully like this
Castro was certainly a black cat but compared with the rest of central america he did catch mice.
I think his system will outlast him, it already has outlasted the USSR by 25 years, it would probably end up like Vietnam, with a communist government and a mixed economic system.0 -
Yes: his record and results:Speedy said:All in all everyone should be judged by their record and their results.
And here are the results of Castro, compared with the closest equivalents and neighbours, Dominican Republic and Guatemala:
GDP per capita.
Cuba: $5500
Dominican Rep.: $6500
Guatemala: $3100
Literacy rate.
Cuba 99.7%
Dominican Rep. 91.8%
Guatemala 79.3%
There is no data from Cuba about income inequality, you can make presumptions that is should be lower than other central american countries that hold the world record.
Dominican Rep. 45.7
Guatemala 55.1
Crime rate, homicides per 100k inhabitants.
Cuba 4.2
Dominican Rep. 17.4
Guatemala 31.2
Life expectancy
Cuba 79.1
Dominican Rep. 73.9
Guatemala 71.9
Overall it doesn't look bad, similar levels of economic development, with greater literacy, less crime, and longer longevity.
It should be a model for Central American countries, though probably not outside of that region and definitely not outside Latin America.
http://www.paulbogdanor.com/left/cuba/dictatorship.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/01/04/opinion/in-cuba-9240-victims-and-counting.html
Yet as your post points out, Cuba's story is interesting, and perhaps unique compared to other dictatorships.0 -
Specially for you, there is a news story on this:williamglenn said:
Given the exponential growth in the number of celebrities we'll have dozens every day before long. The culture will be overwhelmed with gratuitous mourning for nobodies.MTimT said:
Say the population of the West is1 billion and that one in 10,000 people are famous. So there are 100,000 famous people alive in the West. Lets say that, on average, they live to 60, to account for those who die young. We should expect an average of about 4.5 celebrities to die each day.rottenborough said:
Another celeb gone in 2016.FrancisUrquhart said:
"His supporters said he had given Cuba back to the people. Critics saw him as a dictator."PlatoSaid said:Jenna Abrams
That awkward moment when you'd been fighting capitalism for your whole life and then you die on #blackfriday
Bye, Fidel Castro
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-38114953
Hmmm...doesn't that describe every dictator?
http://www.theonion.com/article/report-32-percent-of-us-citizens-still-not-famous-15430 -
As far as Bush's Axis of Evil is concerned, it's three down, three to go.0
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MTimT said:
Specially for you, there is a news story on this:williamglenn said:
Given the exponential growth in the number of celebrities we'll have dozens every day before long. The culture will be overwhelmed with gratuitous mourning for nobodies.MTimT said:
Say the population of the West is1 billion and that one in 10,000 people are famous. So there are 100,000 famous people alive in the West. Lets say that, on average, they live to 60, to account for those who die young. We should expect an average of about 4.5 celebrities to die each day.rottenborough said:
Another celeb gone in 2016.FrancisUrquhart said:
"His supporters said he had given Cuba back to the people. Critics saw him as a dictator."PlatoSaid said:Jenna Abrams
That awkward moment when you'd been fighting capitalism for your whole life and then you die on #blackfriday
Bye, Fidel Castro
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-38114953
Hmmm...doesn't that describe every dictator?
http://www.theonion.com/article/report-32-percent-of-us-citizens-still-not-famous-1543
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When I was there, there was still a state run health system, which was essentially emergency medicine. Great for the immediate emergency care, but medications had to be paid with US $ by the patient - no dollars, no medicine.Casino_Royale said:
For some on the Left, anything can be excused for a state-run health service.MTimT said:
Have you been to Cuba? Do you really think that was anything more than a slogan?Dromedary said:
C'mon, so Jeremy Corbyn isn't great with words and hasn't chosen absolutely the right ones in his eulogy. Fidel Castro was an exceptionally impressive figure. Of course things about the regime can be criticised, but slogans such as "200 million children sleep in the streets, and not one of them is Cuban" say a lot in Latin America. Maybe some British civil servants could call in the Cubans to sort out the NHS.JosiasJessop said:Corbyn speaks:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-38117068
Apparently Castro was a "huge figure in our lives"
Maybe yours matey, maybe yours ...
I suggest you read up about the 'Special Period'0 -
Six to being with: Iraq, Iran, Syria, North Korea, Libya, Cuba. The Cuban, Libyan and Iraqi leaders are no more. Syria hangs in the balance.MTimT said:AndyJS said:As far as Bush's Axis of Evil is concerned, it's three down, three to go.
I don't know if from that you meant there were six original members of the Axis, or three. The latter would be a much more interesting observation ...0 -
Thanks for the tip!foxinsoxuk said:Middlesboro great value for the away win at Leicester. We are missing our only decent midfielder and Zeiler is a liability in goal.
Off to the match. . .
Cashing out now....0 -
I'm going through the list of cultural depictions of Castro, I'm amazed to find that Jack Palance portrayed him in the movie Che!
I'm more amazed that the americans did a movie about Guevara during the middle of the Cold War.0 -
This sort of post reminds me of when East Germany (DDR) overtook the UK's per capita GDP. Yeah, right.Speedy said:All in all everyone should be judged by their record and their results.
And here are the results of Castro, compared with the closest equivalents and neighbours, Dominican Republic and Guatemala:
GDP per capita.
Cuba: $5500
Dominican Rep.: $6500
Guatemala: $3100
Literacy rate.
Cuba 99.7%
Dominican Rep. 91.8%
Guatemala 79.3%
There is no data from Cuba about income inequality, you can make presumptions that is should be lower than other central american countries that hold the world record.
Dominican Rep. 45.7
Guatemala 55.1
Crime rate, homicides per 100k inhabitants.
Cuba 4.2
Dominican Rep. 17.4
Guatemala 31.2
Life expectancy
Cuba 79.1
Dominican Rep. 73.9
Guatemala 71.9
Overall it doesn't look bad, similar levels of economic development, with greater literacy, less crime, and longer longevity.
It should be a model for Central American countries, though probably not outside of that region and definitely not outside Latin America.
Visit Cuba, look at their industrial and farming sector infrastructure and machinery, compare and contrast with the Dominican or Guatemala, then chose where you'd prefer to live. Hint, there is not much of anything in Cuba which is shiny.0 -
The best is the Cuban Soviet movie "I am Cuba". The original soundtrack is in Spanish and English (for the evil Americans), and the Russian dubbed version came with English subtitles, but if you listened carefully, you could still hear the Spanish/English. The English subtitles did not match the original soundtrack.Speedy said:I'm going through the list of cultural depictions of Castro, I'm amazed to find that Jack Palance portrayed him in the movie Che!
I'm more amazed that the americans did a movie about Guevara during the middle of the Cold War.0 -
Personally, I always (as a WMD guy) assumed it was Iraq, Iran and North Korea. And there have been leadership changes in all three, but nothing much has changed in terms of the threats they pose to international peace and security. Plus ca change ...AndyJS said:
Six to being with: Iraq, Iran, Syria, North Korea, Libya, Cuba. The Cuban, Libyan and Iraqi leaders are no more. Syria hangs in the balance.MTimT said:AndyJS said:As far as Bush's Axis of Evil is concerned, it's three down, three to go.
I don't know if from that you meant there were six original members of the Axis, or three. The latter would be a much more interesting observation ...0 -
I have no record of the DDR overtaking the UK in GDP per capita, their peak was 2/3rds of the West German (in PPP) one in 1975 before going down hill.MTimT said:
This sort of post reminds me of when East Germany (DDR) overtook the UK's per capita GDP. Yeah, right.Speedy said:All in all everyone should be judged by their record and their results.
And here are the results of Castro, compared with the closest equivalents and neighbours, Dominican Republic and Guatemala:
GDP per capita.
Cuba: $5500
Dominican Rep.: $6500
Guatemala: $3100
Literacy rate.
Cuba 99.7%
Dominican Rep. 91.8%
Guatemala 79.3%
There is no data from Cuba about income inequality, you can make presumptions that is should be lower than other central american countries that hold the world record.
Dominican Rep. 45.7
Guatemala 55.1
Crime rate, homicides per 100k inhabitants.
Cuba 4.2
Dominican Rep. 17.4
Guatemala 31.2
Life expectancy
Cuba 79.1
Dominican Rep. 73.9
Guatemala 71.9
Overall it doesn't look bad, similar levels of economic development, with greater literacy, less crime, and longer longevity.
It should be a model for Central American countries, though probably not outside of that region and definitely not outside Latin America.
Visit Cuba, look at their industrial and farming sector infrastructure and machinery, compare and contrast with the Dominican or Guatemala, then chose where you'd prefer to live. Hint, there is not much of anything in Cuba which is shiny.
Regardless, looking at the records I wouldn't like to even set foot in Guatemala much less living there, compared with Cuba.0 -
Well, I have travelled extensively in both. I'd chose Guatemala any day.Speedy said:
I have no record of the DDR overtaking the UK in GDP per capita, their peak was 2/3rds of the West German one in 1975 before going down hill.MTimT said:
This sort of post reminds me of when East Germany (DDR) overtook the UK's per capita GDP. Yeah, right.Speedy said:All in all everyone should be judged by their record and their results.
And here are the results of Castro, compared with the closest equivalents and neighbours, Dominican Republic and Guatemala:
GDP per capita.
Cuba: $5500
Dominican Rep.: $6500
Guatemala: $3100
Literacy rate.
Cuba 99.7%
Dominican Rep. 91.8%
Guatemala 79.3%
There is no data from Cuba about income inequality, you can make presumptions that is should be lower than other central american countries that hold the world record.
Dominican Rep. 45.7
Guatemala 55.1
Crime rate, homicides per 100k inhabitants.
Cuba 4.2
Dominican Rep. 17.4
Guatemala 31.2
Life expectancy
Cuba 79.1
Dominican Rep. 73.9
Guatemala 71.9
Overall it doesn't look bad, similar levels of economic development, with greater literacy, less crime, and longer longevity.
It should be a model for Central American countries, though probably not outside of that region and definitely not outside Latin America.
Visit Cuba, look at their industrial and farming sector infrastructure and machinery, compare and contrast with the Dominican or Guatemala, then chose where you'd prefer to live. Hint, there is not much of anything in Cuba which is shiny.
Regardless, looking at the records I wouldn't like to even set foot in Guatemala much less living there, compared with Cuba.0 -
"What Cuba was really like under Fidel Castro
John Simpson"
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/11/cuba-really-like-fidel-castro/0 -
Good for him.Floater said:
Yes, respect to the man. Is he up for deselection.CarlottaVance said:@ChukaUmuna: Interesting reading the Castro obituaries. In the end, I'm a democrat and find it hard to see past the fact he was a dictator.
Gone up in my estimation......
It's interesting to observe people on the left who over the last couple of weeks have lambasted Trump for things he has said or proposes to do, an in many cases their criticism is justified, then to see them turn a blind eye to much worse things done by Castro.
0 -
Wtf???????!!!!!!!!!! She was giving water to people who were praying!?
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/dakota-pipeline-protests/pipeline-protesters-decry-excessive-force-after-woman-s-arm-blown-n6873260 -
I prefer Woody Allen's depiction of Fidel Castro, the part where he visits the USA for economic aid is actually true.MTimT said:
The best is the Cuban Soviet movie "I am Cuba". The original soundtrack is in Spanish and English (for the evil Americans), and the Russian dubbed version came with English subtitles, but if you listened carefully, you could still hear the Spanish/English. The English subtitles did not match the original soundtrack.Speedy said:I'm going through the list of cultural depictions of Castro, I'm amazed to find that Jack Palance portrayed him in the movie Che!
I'm more amazed that the americans did a movie about Guevara during the middle of the Cold War.
Castro did seek aid from America before being pushed away by the mafia, thus turning to the USSR for help.
I'm going through the archives of 1959 and 1960 now, losing Cuba to the communists was a monumental blunder of american foreign policy, Nixon could have kept Castro on the american side but the mafia was too demanding.0 -
Some idiot on the radio this morning was saying virtually that, 'few executions long ago, but universal healthcare and education'.Casino_Royale said:For some on the Left, anything can be excused for a state-run health service.
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