politicalbetting
Home› General

Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Sign In Register

Categories

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Some more bad polling for Labour, its leader and shadow chance

SystemSystem Posts: 12,560
edited November 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Some more bad polling for Labour, its leader and shadow chancellor

New Opinium pollCON 41% +1LAB 29% -3UKIP 12%LD 7%

Read the full story here


Comments

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Ed Balls !
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,163
    Nate Silver makes an interesting point about the Electoral College versus popular vote. The popular vote margin for Clinton would have been higher if had been worth campaigning in solidly Democrat California and New York.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,580
    Third!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,580
    FF43 said:

    Nate Silver makes an interesting point about the Electoral College versus popular vote. The popular vote margin for Clinton would have been higher if had been worth campaigning in solidly Democrat California and New York.

    You don't think republican turnout is generally depressed in those states?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,906
    Broken, sleazy Labour on the slide!
  • paulbarkerpaulbarker Posts: 77
    I spent about 15 years in the same tradition as Corbyn & McDonnell & I can see it through their eyes. For them its going fine, everything on track. Put simply, Labour to them is raw material, of varying quality. As it stands its fairly useless but with a bit of boiling down it can be made into something valuable. If you like, its quality they want, not quantity. They are prepared to dispense with 2/3rds of the voters, half the members & 3/4rs of The MPs. Think of it as sorting the metal from the ore.
    Ideally, Corbyn & his close comrades would like The Labour Right to drift away without an actual split & right now that looks like happening, its all going very well.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,040
    edited November 2016
    Mrs May must be seriously thinking about engineering an election now, a landslide awaits if she goes for it.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,906
    "As each month goes by the next election gets closer"

    Um, that would be true even if the election were in 2020!
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,163
    RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    Nate Silver makes an interesting point about the Electoral College versus popular vote. The popular vote margin for Clinton would have been higher if had been worth campaigning in solidly Democrat California and New York.

    You don't think republican turnout is generally depressed in those states?
    Yes, but it's differential. Clinton was criticised for not campaigning effectively in swing states, unlike Trump. Arguably she did the right thing but it was never going to pay off because the political geography doesn't work for her.

    I accept it's all hypothetical because the political system is what it is and Trump won properly by that system.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,777
    What you always wonder in situations like this is who on earth are these 18%? That is almost 1 in 5. It is a remarkably high number to share such delusions.

    The other thing is of course where is Clarkson? Why this obsession with May and Hammond?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Sandpit said:

    Mrs May must be seriously thinking about engineering an election now, a landslide awaits if she goes for it.

    How ? THe 5 year term or was it another Con con .
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    A much more nuanced article than the poor headline suggests. Worth pondering through the Brexit prism.

    https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/nov/19/brain-drain-southward-310000-graduates-left-north-ten-years?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,357
    edited November 2016
    How many more than 18% are going to vote for Labour knowing they are second best on the economy? Labour are in the low 30's in some recent polls - just cannot see how these two numbers can be reconciled.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    European leaders have come to a 27-nation consensus that a “hard Brexit” is likely to be the only way to see off future populist insurgencies, which could lead to the break-up of the European Union.

    The hardening line in EU capitals comes as Nigel Farage warns European leaders that Marine Le Pen, leader of the Front National, could deliver a political sensation bigger than Brexit and win France’s presidential election next spring – a result that would mean it was “game over” for 60 years of EU integration.

    According to senior officials at the highest levels of European governments, allowing Britain favourable terms of exit could represent an existential danger to the EU, since it would encourage similar demands from other countries with significant Eurosceptic movements.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/nov/19/europes-leaders-force-uk-hard-brexit-farage-le-pen
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Impressive Lib Dem surge.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    More post truth bias from the MSM.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,357
    MP_SE said:

    Impressive Lib Dem surge.

    Steady - pb.com is their safe space....
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    surbiton said:

    Sandpit said:

    Mrs May must be seriously thinking about engineering an election now, a landslide awaits if she goes for it.

    How ? THe 5 year term or was it another Con con .
    Lib Dems.
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    On Topic: Interesting to see the Shadow Chancellor insert the unambiguous phrase " I am a Republican " into his statement backing the Buckingham Palace refit. I'm not bothered that he's a Republican and given his history he shouldn't be dishonest about it. But voluntarily inserted unambiguous statements like that into statements in 2016 when you are on the Front Bench is really quite telling.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,809
    These polling numbers are all before substantial campaign time is spent on Trident and the Monarchy (and other issues like support for the IRA etc).

    In case anyone doesn't think the Monarchy will be an issue - it's an absolute certainty that in the first few days of the GE campaign someone will ask Corbyn if he supports the Monarchy. When he doesn't give a clear "Yes" answer then it'll be on the front page of most of the tabloids the next day and become a key campaign issue - guaranteed to do Lab massive damage.

    And from there it will move on to Trident - with the backdrop of Trump maybe not providing support.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    "As each month goes by the next election gets closer"

    A very shrewd observation!
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    Scott_P said:

    European leaders have come to a 27-nation consensus that a “hard Brexit” is likely to be the only way to see off future populist insurgencies, which could lead to the break-up of the European Union.

    The hardening line in EU capitals comes as Nigel Farage warns European leaders that Marine Le Pen, leader of the Front National, could deliver a political sensation bigger than Brexit and win France’s presidential election next spring – a result that would mean it was “game over” for 60 years of EU integration.

    According to senior officials at the highest levels of European governments, allowing Britain favourable terms of exit could represent an existential danger to the EU, since it would encourage similar demands from other countries with significant Eurosceptic movements.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/nov/19/europes-leaders-force-uk-hard-brexit-farage-le-pen

    It's a form of " The Tragedy of the Commons ". So much of the populist mob was to keep grazing the commons indeed thanks it needs a bigger share of the Commons but wants to leave the tiresome management structures of the Commons that currently avoid the Tragedy. At least the US is large enough to have an internal market capable of sustainable by some domestic industries. The UK isn't as we've known for at least 600 years.

    So while the article is just yet more pre negotiation posturing it contains a hard truth. In the current climate the UK can't and mustn't be allowed to piggy back on others social capital.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    YellowSubmarine said:

    On Topic: Interesting to see the Shadow Chancellor insert the unambiguous phrase " I am a Republican " into his statement backing the Buckingham Palace refit. I'm not bothered that he's a Republican and given his history he shouldn't be dishonest about it. But voluntarily inserted unambiguous statements like that into statements in 2016 when you are on the Front Bench is really quite telling.

    Liz Truss, the Lord Chancellor, proposed a motion at her party conference in 1994 calling for the end of the monarchy.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,906
    Scott_P said:

    European leaders have come to a 27-nation consensus that a “hard Brexit” is likely to be the only way to see off future populist insurgencies, which could lead to the break-up of the European Union.

    The hardening line in EU capitals comes as Nigel Farage warns European leaders that Marine Le Pen, leader of the Front National, could deliver a political sensation bigger than Brexit and win France’s presidential election next spring – a result that would mean it was “game over” for 60 years of EU integration.

    According to senior officials at the highest levels of European governments, allowing Britain favourable terms of exit could represent an existential danger to the EU, since it would encourage similar demands from other countries with significant Eurosceptic movements.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/nov/19/europes-leaders-force-uk-hard-brexit-farage-le-pen

    [singing] It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas Brexit!
  • NoEasyDayNoEasyDay Posts: 454
    Sandpit said:

    Mrs May must be seriously thinking about engineering an election now, a landslide awaits if she goes for it.

    I suspect she is thinking that an election that Labour loses by a landslide will shock them into a rethink...a new blair type. So better its three and a half years out. That then gives us eight and a half years guaranteed Tory government. Rather than three and a half.

    My ipad is working again thanks. Sunil.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,906
    NoEasyDay said:

    Sandpit said:

    Mrs May must be seriously thinking about engineering an election now, a landslide awaits if she goes for it.

    I suspect she is thinking that an election that Labour loses by a landslide will shock them into a rethink...a new blair type. So better its three and a half years out. That then gives us eight and a half years guaranteed Tory government. Rather than three and a half.

    My ipad is working again thanks. Sunil.
    I don't like crApple.
  • NoEasyDayNoEasyDay Posts: 454
    YellowSubmarine said:

    Scott_P said:

    European leaders have come to a 27-nation consensus that a “hard Brexit” is likely to be the only way to see off future populist insurgencies, which could lead to the break-up of the European Union.

    The hardening line in EU capitals comes as Nigel Farage warns European leaders that Marine Le Pen, leader of the Front National, could deliver a political sensation bigger than Brexit and win France’s presidential election next spring – a result that would mean it was “game over” for 60 years of EU integration.

    According to senior officials at the highest levels of European governments, allowing Britain favourable terms of exit could represent an existential danger to the EU, since it would encourage similar demands from other countries with significant Eurosceptic movements.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/nov/19/europes-leaders-force-uk-hard-brexit-farage-le-pen

    It's a form of " The Tragedy of the Commons ". So much of the populist mob was to keep grazing the commons indeed thanks it needs a bigger share of the Commons but wants to leave the tiresome management structures of the Commons that currently avoid the Tragedy. At least the US is large enough to have an internal market capable of sustainable by some domestic industries. The UK isn't as we've known for at least 600 years.

    So while the article is just yet more pre negotiation posturing it contains a hard truth. In the current climate the UK can't and mustn't be allowed to piggy back on others social capital.
    Stop drinking or commenting, you are incoherent.
  • BudGBudG Posts: 711
    edited November 2016
    MarqueeMark said:

    How many more than 18% are going to vote for Labour knowing they are second best on the economy? Labour are in the low 30's in some recent polls - just cannot see how these two numbers can be reconciled.

    Maybe the "missing" 10-15% of Labour voters are part of the 38% who don't appear to have trust in either of the two options offered.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,323
    Clears throat...taps mic...sniff sniff....WRONG 21st Century Socialism sweeping the nation.
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    NoEasyDay said:

    YellowSubmarine said:

    Scott_P said:

    European leaders have come to a 27-nation consensus that a “hard Brexit” is likely to be the only way to see off future populist insurgencies, which could lead to the break-up of the European Union.

    The hardening line in EU capitals comes as Nigel Farage warns European leaders that Marine Le Pen, leader of the Front National, could deliver a political sensation bigger than Brexit and win France’s presidential election next spring – a result that would mean it was “game over” for 60 years of EU integration.

    According to senior officials at the highest levels of European governments, allowing Britain favourable terms of exit could represent an existential danger to the EU, since it would encourage similar demands from other countries with significant Eurosceptic movements.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/nov/19/europes-leaders-force-uk-hard-brexit-farage-le-pen

    It's a form of " The Tragedy of the Commons ". So much of the populist mob was to keep grazing the commons indeed thanks it needs a bigger share of the Commons but wants to leave the tiresome management structures of the Commons that currently avoid the Tragedy. At least the US is large enough to have an internal market capable of sustainable by some domestic industries. The UK isn't as we've known for at least 600 years.

    So while the article is just yet more pre negotiation posturing it contains a hard truth. In the current climate the UK can't and mustn't be allowed to piggy back on others social capital.
    Stop drinking or commenting, you are incoherent.
    And you're unoriginal and ad hominem. But in the morning I will be sober !
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,988
    YellowSubmarine said:

    NoEasyDay said:

    YellowSubmarine said:

    Scott_P said:

    European leaders have come to a 27-nation consensus that a “hard Brexit” is likely to be the only way to see off future populist insurgencies, which could lead to the break-up of the European Union.

    The hardening line in EU capitals comes as Nigel Farage warns European leaders that Marine Le Pen, leader of the Front National, could deliver a political sensation bigger than Brexit and win France’s presidential election next spring – a result that would mean it was “game over” for 60 years of EU integration.

    According to senior officials at the highest levels of European governments, allowing Britain favourable terms of exit could represent an existential danger to the EU, since it would encourage similar demands from other countries with significant Eurosceptic movements.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/nov/19/europes-leaders-force-uk-hard-brexit-farage-le-pen

    It's a form of " The Tragedy of the Commons ". So much of the populist mob was to keep grazing the commons indeed thanks it needs a bigger share of the Commons but wants to leave the tiresome management structures of the Commons that currently avoid the Tragedy. At least the US is large enough to have an internal market capable of sustainable by some domestic industries. The UK isn't as we've known for at least 600 years.

    So while the article is just yet more pre negotiation posturing it contains a hard truth. In the current climate the UK can't and mustn't be allowed to piggy back on others social capital.
    Stop drinking or commenting, you are incoherent.
    And you're unoriginal and ad hominem. But in the morning I will be sober !
    Still incoherent though.
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    edited November 2016
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    YellowSubmarine said:

    NoEasyDay said:

    YellowSubmarine said:

    Scott_P said:

    European leaders have come to a 27-nation consensus that a “hard Brexit” is likely to be the only way to see off future populist insurgencies, which could lead to the break-up of the European Union.

    The hardening line in EU capitals comes as Nigel Farage warns European leaders that Marine Le Pen, leader of the Front National, could deliver a political sensation bigger than Brexit and win France’s presidential election next spring – a result that would mean it was “game over” for 60 years of EU integration.

    According to senior officials at the highest levels of European governments, allowing Britain favourable terms of exit could represent an existential danger to the EU, since it would encourage similar demands from other countries with significant Eurosceptic movements.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/nov/19/europes-leaders-force-uk-hard-brexit-farage-le-pen

    It's a form of " The Tragedy of the Commons ". So much of the populist mob was to keep grazing the commons indeed thanks it needs a bigger share of the Commons but wants to leave the tiresome management structures of the Commons that currently avoid the Tragedy. At least the US is large enough to have an internal market capable of sustainable by some domestic industries. The UK isn't as we've known for at least 600 years.

    So while the article is just yet more pre negotiation posturing it contains a hard truth. In the current climate the UK can't and mustn't be allowed to piggy back on others social capital.
    Stop drinking or commenting, you are incoherent.
    And you're unoriginal and ad hominem. But in the morning I will be sober !
    Still incoherent though.
    We've years of this discussion still to come so we should all pace ourselves. The schism between globalizing and protectionist Brexiters never mattered before. But now you've won it's going to be explored in enormous detail as things unfold.
  • NoEasyDayNoEasyDay Posts: 454
    Just goolged ad hominem
    "appealing to one's prejudices, emotions, or special interests rather than to one's intellect or reason."

  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    NoEasyDay said:

    Just goolged ad hominem
    "appealing to one's prejudices, emotions, or special interests rather than to one's intellect or reason."

    Isn't that the definition of "politics"?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/800111616461336576
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    And one for the turnips...

    https://twitter.com/jamesdoleman/status/800107104119885824
  • NoEasyDayNoEasyDay Posts: 454
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/800111616461336576

    A good read on who Trump has appointed can be found on "insurge intelligence" I don't agree with all of it but the facts are un impeachable..unlike Trump.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,323
    http://order-order.com/2016/11/19/telegraph-pol-ed-dominiczak-joins-crosby-textor-fullbrook/

    Will the last person at Telegraph Towers please remember to turn off the lights.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    MikeL said:

    These polling numbers are all before substantial campaign time is spent on Trident and the Monarchy (and other issues like support for the IRA etc).

    In case anyone doesn't think the Monarchy will be an issue - it's an absolute certainty that in the first few days of the GE campaign someone will ask Corbyn if he supports the Monarchy. When he doesn't give a clear "Yes" answer then it'll be on the front page of most of the tabloids the next day and become a key campaign issue - guaranteed to do Lab massive damage.

    And from there it will move on to Trident - with the backdrop of Trump maybe not providing support.

    There will be no anti-establishment backlash against Corbyn.
  • NoEasyDayNoEasyDay Posts: 454
    NoEasyDay said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/800111616461336576

    A good read on who Trump has appointed can be found on "insurge intelligence" I don't agree with all of it but the facts are un impeachable..unlike Trump.
    Oh and I forgot to say he seems to have gone out of his way to appoint the most extreme candidates possible.
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    Scott_P said:

    And one for the turnips...

    https://twitter.com/jamesdoleman/status/800107104119885824

    I see Farage is working on a form of words to allow him to endorse and campaign for Le Pen personally while not supporting the FN in general. These are truly dark days and the is just the beginning. So in that sense even if Blair is a malfeasant war criminal perhaps we need him to come back ?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,733
    NoEasyDay said:

    YellowSubmarine said:

    Scott_P said:

    European leaders have come to a 27-nation consensus that a “hard Brexit” is likely to be the only way to see off future populist insurgencies, which could lead to the break-up of the European Union.

    The hardening line in EU capitals comes as Nigel Farage warns European leaders that Marine Le Pen, leader of the Front National, could deliver a political sensation bigger than Brexit and win France’s presidential election next spring – a result that would mean it was “game over” for 60 years of EU integration.

    According to senior officials at the highest levels of European governments, allowing Britain favourable terms of exit could represent an existential danger to the EU, since it would encourage similar demands from other countries with significant Eurosceptic movements.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/nov/19/europes-leaders-force-uk-hard-brexit-farage-le-pen

    It's a form of " The Tragedy of the Commons ". So much of the populist mob was to keep grazing the commons indeed thanks it needs a bigger share of the Commons but wants to leave the tiresome management structures of the Commons that currently avoid the Tragedy. At least the US is large enough to have an internal market capable of sustainable by some domestic industries. The UK isn't as we've known for at least 600 years.

    So while the article is just yet more pre negotiation posturing it contains a hard truth. In the current climate the UK can't and mustn't be allowed to piggy back on others social capital.
    Stop drinking or commenting, you are incoherent.
    There's a copy-paste fail or something in there but the meaning's clear to me. What part aren't you getting?
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Scott_P said:

    And one for the turnips...

    https://twitter.com/jamesdoleman/status/800107104119885824

    Two words
    "The Hague".
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited November 2016
    Scott_P said:

    And one for the turnips...

    https://twitter.com/jamesdoleman/status/800107104119885824

    Blair did more harm to us staying in the EU than anyone. The failure to have the restrictions on A8 migration was his fault, as were the Middle East wars.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Scott_P said:

    And one for the turnips...

    https://twitter.com/jamesdoleman/status/800107104119885824

    Blair did more harm to us staying in the EU than anyone. The failure to have the restrictions on A8 migration was his fault, as were the Middle East wars.
    Also the failure to have a referendum on the constitution the first time.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    old_labour said:

    Scott_P said:

    And one for the turnips...

    https://twitter.com/jamesdoleman/status/800107104119885824

    Two words
    "The Hague".
    William or Ffion?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 55,515
    paulbarker said:

    I spent about 15 years in the same tradition as Corbyn & McDonnell & I can see it through their eyes. For them its going fine, everything on track. Put simply, Labour to them is raw material, of varying quality. As it stands its fairly useless but with a bit of boiling down it can be made into something valuable. If you like, its quality they want, not quantity. They are prepared to dispense with 2/3rds of the voters, half the members & 3/4rs of The MPs. Think of it as sorting the metal from the ore.
    Ideally, Corbyn & his close comrades would like The Labour Right to drift away without an actual split & right now that looks like happening, its all going very well.

    Yup

    Ikarraaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!

    Will donate £5 to charity of choice for first person to get pop culture reference
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,042
    YellowSubmarine said:

    Scott_P said:

    And one for the turnips...

    https://twitter.com/jamesdoleman/status/800107104119885824

    I see Farage is working on a form of words to allow him to endorse and campaign for Le Pen personally while not supporting the FN in general. These are truly dark days and the is just the beginning. So in that sense even if Blair is a malfeasant war criminal perhaps we need him to come back ?
    Blair back in politics would be hilarious
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    ThreeQuidder said:

    old_labour said:

    Scott_P said:

    And one for the turnips...

    https://twitter.com/jamesdoleman/status/800107104119885824

    Two words
    "The Hague".
    William or Ffion?
    Two words Tezza can utter to Tone if he tries to mess around with her.
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    @foxinsoxuk Yes you are spot on. If he could frame it as " look these were my mistakes and look where they led. These new mistakes are going to lead.. " then he'd be useful. His response to Chilcott suggests he's not up to it.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    YellowSubmarine said:

    Scott_P said:

    And one for the turnips...

    https://twitter.com/jamesdoleman/status/800107104119885824

    I see Farage is working on a form of words to allow him to endorse and campaign for Le Pen personally while not supporting the FN in general. These are truly dark days and the is just the beginning. So in that sense even if Blair is a malfeasant war criminal perhaps we need him to come back ?
    Blair back in politics would be hilarious
    It almost matches this.
  • NoEasyDayNoEasyDay Posts: 454
    edmundintokyo said:

    NoEasyDay said:

    YellowSubmarine said:

    Scott_P said:

    European leaders have come to a 27-nation consensus that a “hard Brexit” is likely to be the only way to see off future populist insurgencies, which could lead to the break-up of the European Union.

    The hardening line in EU capitals comes as Nigel Farage warns European leaders that Marine Le Pen, leader of the Front National, could deliver a political sensation bigger than Brexit and win France’s presidential election next spring – a result that would mean it was “game over” for 60 years of EU integration.

    According to senior officials at the highest levels of European governments, allowing Britain favourable terms of exit could represent an existential danger to the EU, since it would encourage similar demands from other countries with significant Eurosceptic movements.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/nov/19/europes-leaders-force-uk-hard-brexit-farage-le-pen

    It's a form of " The Tragedy of the Commons ". So much of the populist mob was to keep grazing the commons indeed thanks it needs a bigger share of the Commons but wants to leave the tiresome management structures of the Commons that currently avoid the Tragedy. At least the US is large enough to have an internal market capable of sustainable by some domestic industries. The UK isn't as we've known for at least 600 years.

    So while the article is just yet more pre negotiation posturing it contains a hard truth. In the current climate the UK can't and mustn't be allowed to piggy back on others social capital.
    Stop drinking or commenting, you are incoherent.
    There's a copy-paste fail or something in there but the meaning's clear to me. What part aren't you getting?
    I am glad the meaning is clear to you.

    What is it then .?

  • NoEasyDayNoEasyDay Posts: 454
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    YellowSubmarine said:

    Scott_P said:

    And one for the turnips...

    https://twitter.com/jamesdoleman/status/800107104119885824

    I see Farage is working on a form of words to allow him to endorse and campaign for Le Pen personally while not supporting the FN in general. These are truly dark days and the is just the beginning. So in that sense even if Blair is a malfeasant war criminal perhaps we need him to come back ?
    Blair back in politics would be hilarious
    Don't underestimate Blair, he is evil, but a very dangerous individual.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Scott_P said:

    And one for the turnips...

    https://twitter.com/jamesdoleman/status/800107104119885824

    Blair did more harm to us staying in the EU than anyone. The failure to have the restrictions on A8 migration was his fault, as were the Middle East wars.
    And the farce of the non vote on the Constitution/Lisbon Treaty which could've ( we'll surely would've - it was unsellable to the UK electorate) headed more integration off at the pass, and prevented pressure building to full fat Brexit.

    Blair is delusional, frankly, if he thinks he can come back. So much of his administration's "achievements" are falling apart- devolution to kill Scottish nationalism "stone dead" ( going well especially for the Labour Party (!)), anchoring Britain in Europe (a majority voted to leave), a liberal interventionist foreign policy (Iraq!!). He's utterly kidding himself.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,042
    NoEasyDay said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    YellowSubmarine said:

    Scott_P said:

    And one for the turnips...

    https://twitter.com/jamesdoleman/status/800107104119885824

    I see Farage is working on a form of words to allow him to endorse and campaign for Le Pen personally while not supporting the FN in general. These are truly dark days and the is just the beginning. So in that sense even if Blair is a malfeasant war criminal perhaps we need him to come back ?
    Blair back in politics would be hilarious
    Don't underestimate Blair, he is evil, but a very dangerous individual.
    He would drive the nation to TM or the left to Corbyn. He is finished in the UK
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 55,515
    NoEasyDay said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    NoEasyDay said:

    YellowSubmarine said:

    Scott_P said:

    European leaders have come to a 27-nation consensus that a “hard Brexit” is likely to be the only way to see off future populist insurgencies, which could lead to the break-up of the European Union.

    The hardening line in EU capitals comes as Nigel Farage warns European leaders that Marine Le Pen, leader of the Front National, could deliver a political sensation bigger than Brexit and win France’s presidential election next spring – a result that would mean it was “game over” for 60 years of EU integration.

    According to senior officials at the highest levels of European governments, allowing Britain favourable terms of exit could represent an existential danger to the EU, since it would encourage similar demands from other countries with significant Eurosceptic movements.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/nov/19/europes-leaders-force-uk-hard-brexit-farage-le-pen

    It's a form of " The Tragedy of the Commons ". So much of the populist mob was to keep grazing the commons indeed thanks it needs a bigger share of the Commons but wants to leave the tiresome management structures of the Commons that currently avoid the Tragedy. At least the US is large enough to have an internal market capable of sustainable by some domestic industries. The UK isn't as we've known for at least 600 years.

    So while the article is just yet more pre negotiation posturing it contains a hard truth. In the current climate the UK can't and mustn't be allowed to piggy back on others social capital.
    Stop drinking or commenting, you are incoherent.
    There's a copy-paste fail or something in there but the meaning's clear to me. What part aren't you getting?
    I am glad the meaning is clear to you.

    What is it then .?

    He appears to be likening leaving the EU to the "Tragedy of the Commons" - that the UK will derive (underserved) benefit from it at the expense of others, by taking more than our share of the common... something. Apparently, if the UK doesn't suffer from exit, then Marshall Petain will stumble out of his crypt etc etc.

    Interesting that a Remainer believes that leaving the EU would be beneficial - unless dealt with....

  • NoEasyDayNoEasyDay Posts: 454
    Malmesbury said:

    NoEasyDay said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    NoEasyDay said:

    YellowSubmarine said:

    Scott_P said:

    European leaders have come to a 27-nation consensus that a “hard Brexit” is likely to be the only way to see off future populist insurgencies, which could lead to the break-up of the European Union.

    The hardening line in EU capitals comes as Nigel Farage warns European leaders that Marine Le Pen, leader of the Front National, could deliver a political sensation bigger than Brexit and win France’s presidential election next spring – a result that would mean it was “game over” for 60 years of EU integration.

    According to senior officials at the highest levels of European governments, allowing Britain favourable terms of exit could represent an existential danger to the EU, since it would encourage similar demands from other countries with significant Eurosceptic movements.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/nov/19/europes-leaders-force-uk-hard-brexit-farage-le-pen

    It's a form of " The Tragedy of the Commons ". So much of the populist mob was to keep grazing the commons indeed thanks it needs a bigger share of the Commons but wants to leave the tiresome management structures of the Commons that currently avoid the Tragedy. At least the US is large enough to have an internal market capable of sustainable by some domestic industries. The UK isn't as we've known for at least 600 years.

    So while the article is just yet more pre negotiation posturing it contains a hard truth. In the current climate the UK can't and mustn't be allowed to piggy back on others social capital.
    Stop drinking or commenting, you are incoherent.
    There's a copy-paste fail or something in there but the meaning's clear to me. What part aren't you getting?
    I am glad the meaning is clear to you.

    What is it then .?

    He appears to be likening leaving the EU to the "Tragedy of the Commons" - that the UK will derive (underserved) benefit from it at the expense of others, by taking more than our share of the common... something. Apparently, if the UK doesn't suffer from exit, then Marshall Petain will stumble out of his crypt etc etc.

    Interesting that a Remainer believes that leaving the EU would be beneficial - unless dealt with....

    Your even more incoherent.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Scott_P said:

    And one for the turnips...

    https://twitter.com/jamesdoleman/status/800107104119885824

    Blair did more harm to us staying in the EU than anyone. The failure to have the restrictions on A8 migration was his fault, as were the Middle East wars.
    Spot on .
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,132
    Tykejohnno said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Scott_P said:

    And one for the turnips...

    https://twitter.com/jamesdoleman/status/800107104119885824

    Blair did more harm to us staying in the EU than anyone. The failure to have the restrictions on A8 migration was his fault, as were the Middle East wars.
    Spot on .
    On the old thespian seeking the limelight?
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    geoffw said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Scott_P said:

    And one for the turnips...

    https://twitter.com/jamesdoleman/status/800107104119885824

    Blair did more harm to us staying in the EU than anyone. The failure to have the restrictions on A8 migration was his fault, as were the Middle East wars.
    Spot on .
    On the old thespian seeking the limelight?
    Norman Desmond!
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    YellowSubmarine said:

    A much more nuanced article than the poor headline suggests. Worth pondering through the Brexit prism.

    https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/nov/19/brain-drain-southward-310000-graduates-left-north-ten-years?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

    That is hardly new within the overall context of the UK, though, is it. The upper sixth at my school had 70 students. All but 3 left Plymouth. I am unaware that any returned there for work.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,132
    old_labour said:

    geoffw said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Scott_P said:

    And one for the turnips...

    https://twitter.com/jamesdoleman/status/800107104119885824

    Blair did more harm to us staying in the EU than anyone. The failure to have the restrictions on A8 migration was his fault, as were the Middle East wars.
    Spot on .
    On the old thespian seeking the limelight?
    Norman Desmond!
    transgendered!
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    MTimT said:

    YellowSubmarine said:

    A much more nuanced article than the poor headline suggests. Worth pondering through the Brexit prism.

    https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/nov/19/brain-drain-southward-310000-graduates-left-north-ten-years?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

    That is hardly new within the overall context of the UK, though, is it. The upper sixth at my school had 70 students. All but 3 left Plymouth. I am unaware that any returned there for work.
    No it's not remotely new. It's one of our well entrenched economic problems that leaving or remaining will do bugger all about.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,132
    MTimT said:

    YellowSubmarine said:

    A much more nuanced article than the poor headline suggests. Worth pondering through the Brexit prism.

    https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/nov/19/brain-drain-southward-310000-graduates-left-north-ten-years?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

    That is hardly new within the overall context of the UK, though, is it. The upper sixth at my school had 70 students. All but 3 left Plymouth. I am unaware that any returned there for work.
    Perhaps you remember the Remove rather than the Upper 6th.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Does ANYONE believe Labour at 29% is realistic. Frankly , I think its fanciful.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Tykejohnno said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Scott_P said:

    And one for the turnips...

    https://twitter.com/jamesdoleman/status/800107104119885824

    Blair did more harm to us staying in the EU than anyone. The failure to have the restrictions on A8 migration was his fault, as were the Middle East wars.
    Spot on .
    First question to Blair.. Why did you allow so many of our soldiers to die in an illegal war.. Doesn't matter as to the truthfulness. He will be tied in knots indefinitely.

    He should be in court, not in politics.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    geoffw said:

    old_labour said:

    geoffw said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Scott_P said:

    And one for the turnips...

    https://twitter.com/jamesdoleman/status/800107104119885824

    Blair did more harm to us staying in the EU than anyone. The failure to have the restrictions on A8 migration was his fault, as were the Middle East wars.
    Spot on .
    On the old thespian seeking the limelight?
    Norman Desmond!
    transgendered!
    I'm ready for my shot now, Mr Executioner!
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    SquareRoot said:

    Does ANYONE believe Labour at 29% is realistic. Frankly , I think its fanciful.

    It's hard to believe for sure.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,121
    old_labour said:

    geoffw said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Scott_P said:

    And one for the turnips...

    https://twitter.com/jamesdoleman/status/800107104119885824

    Blair did more harm to us staying in the EU than anyone. The failure to have the restrictions on A8 migration was his fault, as were the Middle East wars.
    Spot on .
    On the old thespian seeking the limelight?
    Norman Desmond!
    "I hate the word comeback. It's a return, a return to the millions of people who have never forgiven me for deserting the scene!"
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    NoEasyDay said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    YellowSubmarine said:

    Scott_P said:

    And one for the turnips...

    https://twitter.com/jamesdoleman/status/800107104119885824

    I see Farage is working on a form of words to allow him to endorse and campaign for Le Pen personally while not supporting the FN in general. These are truly dark days and the is just the beginning. So in that sense even if Blair is a malfeasant war criminal perhaps we need him to come back ?
    Blair back in politics would be hilarious
    Don't underestimate Blair, he is evil, but a very dangerous individual.
    He would drive the nation to TM or the left to Corbyn. He is finished in the UK
    As he should be

    "trust me" says Tony..... err we did, how did that work out again
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,121
    YellowSubmarine said:

    @foxinsoxuk Yes you are spot on. If he could frame it as " look these were my mistakes and look where they led. These new mistakes are going to lead.. " then he'd be useful. His response to Chilcott suggests he's not up to it.

    I agree with this. Unfortunately he's more likely to frame it as, "Look, Chirac said he would veto a UN resolution whatever the circumstances and then he told the eastern Europeans to shut up. I did the right thing."
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Scott_P said:

    European leaders have come to a 27-nation consensus that a “hard Brexit” is likely to be the only way to see off future populist insurgencies, which could lead to the break-up of the European Union.

    The hardening line in EU capitals comes as Nigel Farage warns European leaders that Marine Le Pen, leader of the Front National, could deliver a political sensation bigger than Brexit and win France’s presidential election next spring – a result that would mean it was “game over” for 60 years of EU integration.

    According to senior officials at the highest levels of European governments, allowing Britain favourable terms of exit could represent an existential danger to the EU, since it would encourage similar demands from other countries with significant Eurosceptic movements.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/nov/19/europes-leaders-force-uk-hard-brexit-farage-le-pen

    Yawn - can you cut and paste something different for a change?

  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Broken, sleazy Labour on the slide!

    Who needs votes when you can arm the workers.

    Viva the revolution comrades!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,682
    Floater said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    NoEasyDay said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    YellowSubmarine said:

    Scott_P said:

    And one for the turnips...

    https://twitter.com/jamesdoleman/status/800107104119885824

    I see Farage is working on a form of words to allow him to endorse and campaign for Le Pen personally while not supporting the FN in general. These are truly dark days and the is just the beginning. So in that sense even if Blair is a malfeasant war criminal perhaps we need him to come back ?
    Blair back in politics would be hilarious
    Don't underestimate Blair, he is evil, but a very dangerous individual.
    He would drive the nation to TM or the left to Corbyn. He is finished in the UK
    As he should be

    "trust me" says Tony..... err we did, how did that work out again
    The level of negativity here smacks of panic from the right as their old foe limbers up again.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,682
    SquareRoot said:

    Does ANYONE believe Labour at 29% is realistic. Frankly , I think its fanciful.

    What's the opposite of shy Labour voters? immodest Labour?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,733
    YellowSubmarine said:

    MTimT said:

    YellowSubmarine said:

    A much more nuanced article than the poor headline suggests. Worth pondering through the Brexit prism.

    https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/nov/19/brain-drain-southward-310000-graduates-left-north-ten-years?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

    That is hardly new within the overall context of the UK, though, is it. The upper sixth at my school had 70 students. All but 3 left Plymouth. I am unaware that any returned there for work.
    No it's not remotely new. It's one of our well entrenched economic problems that leaving or remaining will do bugger all about.
    It's not a problem either. Smart people want to work where other smart people are. The UK isn't very big, so they'll tend to congregate in one city.
  • GoupillonGoupillon Posts: 79
    On a subject which I find odd that seems to be of little interest to most posters on this site, there is a serious battle going on in the Richmond Park by election which is really about Brexit and not opposition to the third runway at Heathrow as Goldsmith junior wanted it to be. From anecdotal experiences of Lib Dem canvassers I have heard, I think the Lib Dems chances are much better now than 3-1 as suggested by Barnesian in a post on a string a few days ago. Has anybody here have any evidence to the contrary?
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Goupillon said:

    On a subject which I find odd that seems to be of little interest to most posters on this site, there is a serious battle going on in the Richmond Park by election which is really about Brexit and not opposition to the third runway at Heathrow as Goldsmith junior wanted it to be. From anecdotal experiences of Lib Dem canvassers I have heard, I think the Lib Dems chances are much better now than 3-1 as suggested by Barnesian in a post on a string a few days ago. Has anybody here have any evidence to the contrary?

    Mr Goupillon. Haven't seen you posting in a while. Welcome back.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    rottenborough said:

    SquareRoot said:

    Does ANYONE believe Labour at 29% is realistic. Frankly , I think its fanciful.

    What's the opposite of shy Labour voters? immodest Labour?
    Kneejerk Labour? Tribal Labour? Muscle-memory Labour?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    rottenborough said:

    Floater said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    NoEasyDay said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    YellowSubmarine said:

    Scott_P said:

    And one for the turnips...

    https://twitter.com/jamesdoleman/status/800107104119885824

    I see Farage is working on a form of words to allow him to endorse and campaign for Le Pen personally while not supporting the FN in general. These are truly dark days and the is just the beginning. So in that sense even if Blair is a malfeasant war criminal perhaps we need him to come back ?
    Blair back in politics would be hilarious
    Don't underestimate Blair, he is evil, but a very dangerous individual.
    He would drive the nation to TM or the left to Corbyn. He is finished in the UK
    As he should be

    "trust me" says Tony..... err we did, how did that work out again
    The level of negativity here smacks of panic from the right as their old foe limbers up again.
    LOL - believe that all you want to
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,189
    Goupillon said:

    On a subject which I find odd that seems to be of little interest to most posters on this site, there is a serious battle going on in the Richmond Park by election which is really about Brexit and not opposition to the third runway at Heathrow as Goldsmith junior wanted it to be. From anecdotal experiences of Lib Dem canvassers I have heard, I think the Lib Dems chances are much better now than 3-1 as suggested by Barnesian in a post on a string a few days ago. Has anybody here have any evidence to the contrary?

    Much though I'd like to believe you my experience of canvassers and canvassing is that they tend to be over-optimistic.
    As an example, my most recent experience was running a Remain stall in our local market on Referendum Day and being reasonably sure from the responses that the result, in our area at least ,would be close. I don't know what it was in our ward, but overall the Council area was 53k Leave, 33k Remain.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    For comparison, the May 2015 Opinium had Cameron and Osborne leading Miliband and Balls by 39% to 25%.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,351
    rottenborough said:

    SquareRoot said:

    Does ANYONE believe Labour at 29% is realistic. Frankly , I think its fanciful.

    What's the opposite of shy Labour voters? immodest Labour?
    Momentum.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,351
    rottenborough said:

    Floater said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    NoEasyDay said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    YellowSubmarine said:

    Scott_P said:

    And one for the turnips...

    https://twitter.com/jamesdoleman/status/800107104119885824

    I see Farage is working on a form of words to allow him to endorse and campaign for Le Pen personally while not supporting the FN in general. These are truly dark days and the is just the beginning. So in that sense even if Blair is a malfeasant war criminal perhaps we need him to come back ?
    Blair back in politics would be hilarious
    Don't underestimate Blair, he is evil, but a very dangerous individual.
    He would drive the nation to TM or the left to Corbyn. He is finished in the UK
    As he should be

    "trust me" says Tony..... err we did, how did that work out again
    The level of negativity here smacks of panic from the right as their old foe limbers up again.
    Can I refer you to the thread header. Complacency is more of a threat to the Tories than panic.

    Blair's time is long gone. The country was happy to see him go in 2007. Returning to the fray now would be like Thatcher returning to the front line in 1999. Besides, who would he bat for? His old vision of both Labour and the country is out of step with the times. If he has a new one it'll be closer to May's than Corbyn's.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,189
    david_herdson said:

    rottenborough said:

    Floater said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    NoEasyDay said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    YellowSubmarine said:

    Scott_P said:

    And one for the turnips...

    https://twitter.com/jamesdoleman/status/800107104119885824

    I see Farage is working on a form of words to allow him to endorse and campaign for Le Pen personally while not supporting the FN in general. These are truly dark days and the is just the beginning. So in that sense even if Blair is a malfeasant war criminal perhaps we need him to come back ?
    Blair back in politics would be hilarious
    Don't underestimate Blair, he is evil, but a very dangerous individual.
    He would drive the nation to TM or the left to Corbyn. He is finished in the UK
    As he should be

    "trust me" says Tony..... err we did, how did that work out again
    The level of negativity here smacks of panic from the right as their old foe limbers up again.
    Can I refer you to the thread header. Complacency is more of a threat to the Tories than panic.

    Blair's time is long gone. The country was happy to see him go in 2007. Returning to the fray now would be like Thatcher returning to the front line in 1999. Besides, who would he bat for? His old vision of both Labour and the country is out of step with the times. If he has a new one it'll be closer to May's than Corbyn's.
    I wonder, Mr H, if it's not so much complacency as lack of conviction. Agree with you, though, about Blair. Churchill was 'in the wilderness' for at least ten years, though, but I don't think returning to the gold standard anywhere equals the Iraq disaster.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,351
    OldKingCole said:

    david_herdson said:

    rottenborough said:

    Floater said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    NoEasyDay said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    YellowSubmarine said:

    Scott_P said:

    And one for the turnips...

    https://twitter.com/jamesdoleman/status/800107104119885824

    I see Farage is working on a form of words to allow him to endorse and campaign for Le Pen personally while not supporting the FN in general. These are truly dark days and the is just the beginning. So in that sense even if Blair is a malfeasant war criminal perhaps we need him to come back ?
    Blair back in politics would be hilarious
    Don't underestimate Blair, he is evil, but a very dangerous individual.
    He would drive the nation to TM or the left to Corbyn. He is finished in the UK
    As he should be

    "trust me" says Tony..... err we did, how did that work out again
    The level of negativity here smacks of panic from the right as their old foe limbers up again.
    Can I refer you to the thread header. Complacency is more of a threat to the Tories than panic.

    Blair's time is long gone. The country was happy to see him go in 2007. Returning to the fray now would be like Thatcher returning to the front line in 1999. Besides, who would he bat for? His old vision of both Labour and the country is out of step with the times. If he has a new one it'll be closer to May's than Corbyn's.
    I wonder, Mr H, if it's not so much complacency as lack of conviction. Agree with you, though, about Blair. Churchill was 'in the wilderness' for at least ten years, though, but I don't think returning to the gold standard anywhere equals the Iraq disaster.
    Churchill was in the political wilderness for ten years but he was in the House, which meant he could question the govt directly on issues like rearmament. That ultimately enabled his return when he was proven both right and relevant. I don't see any parallel for Blair.

    Interesting observation you make re complacency / lack of conviction, and one I need t give more thought to.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edmundintokyo said:

    YellowSubmarine said:

    MTimT said:

    YellowSubmarine said:

    A much more nuanced article than the poor headline suggests. Worth pondering through the Brexit prism.

    https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/nov/19/brain-drain-southward-310000-graduates-left-north-ten-years?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

    That is hardly new within the overall context of the UK, though, is it. The upper sixth at my school had 70 students. All but 3 left Plymouth. I am unaware that any returned there for work.
    No it's not remotely new. It's one of our well entrenched economic problems that leaving or remaining will do bugger all about.
    It's not a problem either. Smart people want to work where other smart people are. The UK isn't very big, so they'll tend to congregate in one city.
    Smart people want to work where the good jobs are. Employers tend to cluster.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,733
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    YellowSubmarine said:

    MTimT said:

    YellowSubmarine said:

    A much more nuanced article than the poor headline suggests. Worth pondering through the Brexit prism.

    https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/nov/19/brain-drain-southward-310000-graduates-left-north-ten-years?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

    That is hardly new within the overall context of the UK, though, is it. The upper sixth at my school had 70 students. All but 3 left Plymouth. I am unaware that any returned there for work.
    No it's not remotely new. It's one of our well entrenched economic problems that leaving or remaining will do bugger all about.
    It's not a problem either. Smart people want to work where other smart people are. The UK isn't very big, so they'll tend to congregate in one city.
    Smart people want to work where the good jobs are. Employers tend to cluster.
    That's the same point, expressed with a layer of indirection.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    YellowSubmarine said:

    MTimT said:

    YellowSubmarine said:

    A much more nuanced article than the poor headline suggests. Worth pondering through the Brexit prism.

    https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/nov/19/brain-drain-southward-310000-graduates-left-north-ten-years?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

    That is hardly new within the overall context of the UK, though, is it. The upper sixth at my school had 70 students. All but 3 left Plymouth. I am unaware that any returned there for work.
    No it's not remotely new. It's one of our well entrenched economic problems that leaving or remaining will do bugger all about.
    It's not a problem either. Smart people want to work where other smart people are. The UK isn't very big, so they'll tend to congregate in one city.
    Smart people want to work where the good jobs are. Employers tend to cluster.
    Employers tend to cluster where people want to be. It is something of a chicken and egg, but people want to be where the action is at, and the action is more than just the job - it is the whole environment. Good job (not just the pay, but the challenge and sense of purpose), fun place to live with lots of cultural events or sporting opportunities, surrounded by stimulating people.

    While companies within an industry do tend to cluster, there are only so many locations that offer the fun place to live and the concentration of stimulating people that make them attractive places for business.

    Think of where businesses locate in the US. Unless you are fracking, you do not locate in the Dakotas. Extraction industries have to be where the raw material is, and farming has to be where the farmland is. But the knowledge industry is not bound in that manner.

    Where do knowledge industries locate? You do locate in the big cities with lots of culture (LA, NY, Chicago), near the beaches or mountains for the outdoor sports California, Florida, Colorado), or near top research universities or the big government labs for the stimulating people (NC's research triangle, Princeton/New Jersey, Cambridge/Boston, Austin, Santa Fe, Albuquerque, Silicon Valley) or near government (DC) and major military bases (San Diego, Norfolk/Virginia Beach). That sounds a lot, but really, there are not that many options for where to locate.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edmundintokyo said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    YellowSubmarine said:

    MTimT said:

    YellowSubmarine said:

    A much more nuanced article than the poor headline suggests. Worth pondering through the Brexit prism.

    https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/nov/19/brain-drain-southward-310000-graduates-left-north-ten-years?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

    That is hardly new within the overall context of the UK, though, is it. The upper sixth at my school had 70 students. All but 3 left Plymouth. I am unaware that any returned there for work.
    No it's not remotely new. It's one of our well entrenched economic problems that leaving or remaining will do bugger all about.
    It's not a problem either. Smart people want to work where other smart people are. The UK isn't very big, so they'll tend to congregate in one city.
    Smart people want to work where the good jobs are. Employers tend to cluster.
    That's the same point, expressed with a layer of indirection.
    The same point expressed with causation the right way round for the most part, though perhaps it is true that artistic types tend to cluster with other artists rather than being led by the job market.

    The government could act. I had some hope for George Osborne's northern powerhouse but it seemed to be more about headlines than economics.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,040
    Morning. Tony Blair, really, Tony Blair? He was Leave's best spokesman back in June, the best thing he can do for his cause is to crawl back under his rock and never be seen again.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    "“The challenge we have is that partly because of geographic distribution, there are big chunks of the country that just aren’t hearing us,” Mr. Obama acknowledged Monday during a Democratic National Committee conference call."

    Er ... Isn't the problem not that they aren't hearing you, but that you aren't listening to them?
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    YellowSubmarine said:

    MTimT said:

    YellowSubmarine said:

    A much more nuanced article than the poor headline suggests. Worth pondering through the Brexit prism.

    https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/nov/19/brain-drain-southward-310000-graduates-left-north-ten-years?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

    That is hardly new within the overall context of the UK, though, is it. The upper sixth at my school had 70 students. All but 3 left Plymouth. I am unaware that any returned there for work.
    No it's not remotely new. It's one of our well entrenched economic problems that leaving or remaining will do bugger all about.
    It's not a problem either. Smart people want to work where other smart people are. The UK isn't very big, so they'll tend to congregate in one city.
    Smart people want to work where the good jobs are. Employers tend to cluster.
    That's the same point, expressed with a layer of indirection.
    The same point expressed with causation the right way round for the most part, though perhaps it is true that artistic types tend to cluster with other artists rather than being led by the job market.

    The government could act. I had some hope for George Osborne's northern powerhouse but it seemed to be more about headlines than economics.
    For what its worth in my own industry now you can get an pretty much equally well paid job in Birmingham, Leeds or Manchester as you can in London. Many people moved away for university and then to work and then moved back after 5-10 years due to the cost of housing in London. Similarly working in London I see a drain out to the north, the west country, the midlands etc. The very best paid jobs (megabucks) are still in London, but there aren't that many of them, and very few people run the course in to their thirties when they want to start bringing up families etc. Even staying in the south east and commuting in to London is too expensive on a single income. You need to earn 60-70k, which is out of the reach of most people. Why do that when you can have a bigger house, nicer area, better schools, easier commute.

    People leaving the north is not a major problem.
  • Innocent_AbroadInnocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294
    MTimT said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    YellowSubmarine said:

    MTimT said:

    YellowSubmarine said:

    A much more nuanced article than the poor headline suggests. Worth pondering through the Brexit prism.

    https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/nov/19/brain-drain-southward-310000-graduates-left-north-ten-years?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

    That is hardly new within the overall context of the UK, though, is it. The upper sixth at my school had 70 students. All but 3 left Plymouth. I am unaware that any returned there for work.
    No it's not remotely new. It's one of our well entrenched economic problems that leaving or remaining will do bugger all about.
    It's not a problem either. Smart people want to work where other smart people are. The UK isn't very big, so they'll tend to congregate in one city.
    Smart people want to work where the good jobs are. Employers tend to cluster.
    Employers tend to cluster where people want to be. It is something of a chicken and egg, but people want to be where the action is at, and the action is more than just the job - it is the whole environment. Good job (not just the pay, but the challenge and sense of purpose), fun place to live with lots of cultural events or sporting opportunities, surrounded by stimulating people.

    While companies within an industry do tend to cluster, there are only so many locations that offer the fun place to live and the concentration of stimulating people that make them attractive places for business.

    Think of where businesses locate in the US. Unless you are fracking, you do not locate in the Dakotas. Extraction industries have to be where the raw material is, and farming has to be where the farmland is. But the knowledge industry is not bound in that manner.

    Where do knowledge industries locate? You do locate in the big cities with lots of culture (LA, NY, Chicago), near the beaches or mountains for the outdoor sports California, Florida, Colorado), or near top research universities or the big government labs for the stimulating people (NC's research triangle, Princeton/New Jersey, Cambridge/Boston, Austin, Santa Fe, Albuquerque, Silicon Valley) or near government (DC) and major military bases (San Diego, Norfolk/Virginia Beach). That sounds a lot, but really, there are not that many options for where to locate.
    Quite. And if that's a problem, government could deal with it through taxation and service provision - e.g. by charging for health-care in London (except, of course, to Tory party members :o )

  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    OldKingCole said:

    Goupillon said:

    On a subject which I find odd that seems to be of little interest to most posters on this site, there is a serious battle going on in the Richmond Park by election which is really about Brexit and not opposition to the third runway at Heathrow as Goldsmith junior wanted it to be. From anecdotal experiences of Lib Dem canvassers I have heard, I think the Lib Dems chances are much better now than 3-1 as suggested by Barnesian in a post on a string a few days ago. Has anybody here have any evidence to the contrary?

    Much though I'd like to believe you my experience of canvassers and canvassing is that they tend to be over-optimistic.
    As an example, my most recent experience was running a Remain stall in our local market on Referendum Day and being reasonably sure from the responses that the result, in our area at least ,would be close. I don't know what it was in our ward, but overall the Council area was 53k Leave, 33k Remain.
    would be interesting to get some feedback from goldsmiths campaign.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    edmundintokyo said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    YellowSubmarine said:

    MTimT said:

    YellowSubmarine said:

    A much more nuanced article than the poor headline suggests. Worth pondering through the Brexit prism.

    https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/nov/19/brain-drain-southward-310000-graduates-left-north-ten-years?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

    That is hardly new within the overall context of the UK, though, is it. The upper sixth at my school had 70 students. All but 3 left Plymouth. I am unaware that any returned there for work.
    No it's not remotely new. It's one of our well entrenched economic problems that leaving or remaining will do bugger all about.
    It's not a problem either. Smart people want to work where other smart people are. The UK isn't very big, so they'll tend to congregate in one city.
    Smart people want to work where the good jobs are. Employers tend to cluster.
    That's the same point, expressed with a layer of indirection.
    I struggle with why the initial poster looks to tie this with Brexit. The trend has long been for people to move to Lndon when younger and then move out and perhaps back to the North or wherever when with children. It's harder of course for serious national newspaper journalists and certainly since the Manchester Guardian decided that it needed to be based in London and rebrand. Perhaps that newspaper could lead the revitalisation and return.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited November 2016
    Next GE (10/10 to vote) shares from Opinium: Leave 54.3% Remain 45.7%

    Their 10/10 indicator is usually their most accurate one.

    The Europond is shrinking.
This discussion has been closed.