politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Just a third of voters tell ICM that they’re happy with “uncon
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Just a third of voters tell ICM that they’re happy with “unconditional BREXIT” with the young most opposed
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Comments
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First ?
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Second?0
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If the terms agreed mean I'd be obliged to sign away my first born, maybe not. On the other hand if the EU agree to pay each of us £1,000 per month then I can live with that.0
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"piss-poor"
Really necessary?0 -
Hard-Brexiteers cosying up to Trump are not going to help their get out as quickly as possible at any price strategy.0
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Quelle surprise to see the gilded generation with their final salary pensions and mortgages paid off in favour of something that will make absolutely zero difference to them financially.
Must be comforting to know that governments of all hue will bend over backwards to help you and someone else will pick up the tab.0 -
Computers will be replacing pundits in the future. This software correctly predicted the last 3 US elections, including Trump's "unexpected" victory:-
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/28/donald-trump-will-win-the-election-and-is-more-popular-than-obama-in-2008-ai-system-finds.html
http://uk.businessinsider.com/artificial-intelligence-trump-win-2016-10
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Brexit mean ..... er well what exactly does it mean?0
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I think enough of the public doesn't believe there is a significant tradeoff on economy vs immigration.
Until they see the realities of that tradeoff (assuming it exists) - I'm not sure what good polling it is.0 -
Normal adjectives aren't sufficient for the awfulness of Mr CorbynPeterMannion said:"piss-poor"
Really necessary?0 -
"This is a very hard thing to poll on"
Generous of you to admit the header is meaningless... apart from it does show signs that the author is still at Stage One.0 -
FPT:
So the British equivalent would be the stockbroker belt for London and places like Alderley Edge and Prestbury for Manchester?TheScreamingEagles said:
An exurb is one of those rich only commutable by car areas outside the city's suburbs.nunu said:What is an exburb? In the analysis of trumps victory I keep reading he won these bigly. Which towns/cities would be simmilar if any in the U.K?
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I reckon this is to do with the actualité of Brexit not matching up to the hype of the Leavers pre June 23rd0
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I think so. Dore is another possibility, though it does have a train station...ThreeQuidder said:FPT:
So the British equivalent would be the stockbroker belt for London and places like Alderley Edge and Prestbury for Manchester?TheScreamingEagles said:
An exurb is one of those rich only commutable by car areas outside the city's suburbs.nunu said:What is an exburb? In the analysis of trumps victory I keep reading he won these bigly. Which towns/cities would be simmilar if any in the U.K?
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Middle option bias shocker.
Actually "unconditional exit" has it beaten.
This poll means OUT, no two ways about it.
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Events are strengthening May's negotiating hand almost by the day...0
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Something's wrong here.... The question says 'support or opposition', so shouldn't your chart say 'Oppose unconditionally'?
In which case less than a quarter of those surveyed are absolutely unwilling to accept some form of Brexit, which is a long way from the 48% who voted 'Remain' in June.0 -
How nice to feel young again.0
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This is a desperately bad poll for "remain" I think.TudorRose said:Something's wrong here.... The question says 'support or opposition', so shouldn't your chart say 'Oppose unconditionally'?
In which case less than a quarter of those surveyed are absolutely unwilling to accept some form of Brexit, which is a long way from the 48% who voted 'Remain' in June.0 -
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/11/president-elect-trump-taps-effective-anti-illegal-immigration-official-run-immigration-team/
Trump just tapped the country’s biggest hard-liner on illegal immigration, Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach, to run his immigration team.
Washington Post reports:
One of the nation’s leading immigration hard-liners is working with Donald Trump’s presidential transition team.
Kris Kobach, the Kansas secretary of state, told a Wichita-based television station he was consulting with Trump insiders on the future of U.S. immigration policy.
“I’m a member of the immigration policy transition team, and there’s going to be a lot to do there, in part because Mr. Trump and Mr. Obama are diametrical opposites when it comes to immigration policy, so there will be a lot of changes,” Kobach told KWCH.0 -
Even TSE knows this poll was designed to do that. But Support Unconditionally clearly ahead of Oppose Unconditionally.Pulpstar said:Middle option bias shocker.
Actually "unconditional exit" has it beaten.
This poll means OUT, no two ways about it.
If the other options were "Support with conditions" and "Oppose with conditions" we would have a clearer result.0 -
So do Prestbury and Alderley, and much of what is (or was) considered the stockbroker belt. The concept of "commutable but only by car" doesn't really exist in England (I don't know Scotland, Wales or NI well enough to comment) - I guess because the cities grew up with the railways.TheScreamingEagles said:
I think so. Dore is another possibility, though it does have a train station...ThreeQuidder said:FPT:
So the British equivalent would be the stockbroker belt for London and places like Alderley Edge and Prestbury for Manchester?TheScreamingEagles said:
An exurb is one of those rich only commutable by car areas outside the city's suburbs.nunu said:What is an exburb? In the analysis of trumps victory I keep reading he won these bigly. Which towns/cities would be simmilar if any in the U.K?
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Would you prefer "urinously underwhelming"?PeterMannion said:"piss-poor"
Really necessary?0 -
I don't get the doom and gloom for Brexit based on this poll. 64% of British people support some form of Brexit vs 24% who oppose Brexit. That looks like a terrible poll for continuity remainers.0
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Eh ?ThreeQuidder said:
So do Prestbury and Alderley, and much of what is (or was) considered the stockbroker belt. The concept of "commutable but only by car" doesn't really exist in England (I don't know Scotland, Wales or NI well enough to comment) - I guess because the cities grew up with the railways.TheScreamingEagles said:
I think so. Dore is another possibility, though it does have a train station...ThreeQuidder said:FPT:
So the British equivalent would be the stockbroker belt for London and places like Alderley Edge and Prestbury for Manchester?TheScreamingEagles said:
An exurb is one of those rich only commutable by car areas outside the city's suburbs.nunu said:What is an exburb? In the analysis of trumps victory I keep reading he won these bigly. Which towns/cities would be simmilar if any in the U.K?
I'm commutable by car only to my job. I'll assure you it definitely exists.0 -
Or: "Unconditional Brexit the most popular option"
Or "Fewer than one in four oppose Brexit".0 -
We're all* Brexiteers now!Pulpstar said:
This is a desperately bad poll for "remain" I think.TudorRose said:Something's wrong here.... The question says 'support or opposition', so shouldn't your chart say 'Oppose unconditionally'?
In which case less than a quarter of those surveyed are absolutely unwilling to accept some form of Brexit, which is a long way from the 48% who voted 'Remain' in June.
*well - 73% of us anyway....0 -
Or, to look at it another way, Unconditional the most popular of all options
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People need to stop looking at polling through their preferred sunglasses and see what it is actually trying to tell us.MaxPB said:I don't get the doom and gloom for Brexit based on this poll. 64% of British people support some form of Brexit vs 24% who oppose Brexit. That looks like a terrible poll for continuity remainers.
This poll was clearly designed for middle option bias, the fact that Brexit unconditional has won is a sure sign that a 2nd referendum would lead to the same result, if not a heavier defeat for remain.0 -
This poll tells us something. I agree that there is inevitably middle option bias but it does suggest that an awful lot of people are results merchants (which is pragmatic and sensible).0
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O/T
"Children in Swindon failed by schools 'at every level'"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-wiltshire-379713380 -
The growth figures suggest it doesn't match up to the hype of the Remainers either.TheScreamingEagles said:I reckon this is to do with the actualité of Brexit not matching up to the hype of the Leavers pre June 23rd
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It means two thirds of the country are open to some form of Brexit and a third at whatever the cost. Pretty awful for anyone who wants to rerun the referendum.AlastairMeeks said:This poll tells us something. I agree that there is inevitably middle option bias but it does suggest that an awful lot of people are results merchants (which is pragmatic and sensible).
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Bit cheeky to include the Don't Knows.TudorRose said:
We're all* Brexiteers now!Pulpstar said:
This is a desperately bad poll for "remain" I think.TudorRose said:Something's wrong here.... The question says 'support or opposition', so shouldn't your chart say 'Oppose unconditionally'?
In which case less than a quarter of those surveyed are absolutely unwilling to accept some form of Brexit, which is a long way from the 48% who voted 'Remain' in June.
*well - 73% of us anyway....0 -
I agree. There's a leading question here. There is also a lack of clarity that works the other way. We have had a vote which decided on exit. Could you support Brexit because a decision has been made, even if you think it's a bad idea or would rather know what we were getting ourselves into before coming to an opinion? In other words you oppose Brexit on the principle but support the implementation of a policy that has been agreed. If you are "opposed" or potentially opposed "depending on the terms" would you actually choose to overturn a Brexit decision?TudorRose said:Something's wrong here.... The question says 'support or opposition', so shouldn't your chart say 'Oppose unconditionally'?
In which case less than a quarter of those surveyed are absolutely unwilling to accept some form of Brexit, which is a long way from the 48% who voted 'Remain' in June.0 -
Don't know = Won't vote, probably.david_herdson said:
Bit cheeky to include the Don't Knows.TudorRose said:
We're all* Brexiteers now!Pulpstar said:
This is a desperately bad poll for "remain" I think.TudorRose said:Something's wrong here.... The question says 'support or opposition', so shouldn't your chart say 'Oppose unconditionally'?
In which case less than a quarter of those surveyed are absolutely unwilling to accept some form of Brexit, which is a long way from the 48% who voted 'Remain' in June.
*well - 73% of us anyway....0 -
OGH always understates and Jeremy Corbyn would be fortunate to be only 'piss-poor'.PeterMannion said:"piss-poor"
Really necessary?0 -
But will get included in memes after the result.Pulpstar said:
Don't know = Won't vote, probably.david_herdson said:
Bit cheeky to include the Don't Knows.TudorRose said:
We're all* Brexiteers now!Pulpstar said:
This is a desperately bad poll for "remain" I think.TudorRose said:Something's wrong here.... The question says 'support or opposition', so shouldn't your chart say 'Oppose unconditionally'?
In which case less than a quarter of those surveyed are absolutely unwilling to accept some form of Brexit, which is a long way from the 48% who voted 'Remain' in June.
*well - 73% of us anyway....0 -
I've been saying the latter for a long time. British people do not like to be asked the same question twice.Pulpstar said:
People need to stop looking at polling through their preferred sunglasses and see what it is actually trying to tell us.MaxPB said:I don't get the doom and gloom for Brexit based on this poll. 64% of British people support some form of Brexit vs 24% who oppose Brexit. That looks like a terrible poll for continuity remainers.
This poll was clearly designed for middle option bias, the fact that Brexit unconditional has won is a sure sign that a 2nd referendum would lead to the same result, if not a heavier defeat for remain.
After:
Indyref
May 2015
Brexit
and Trump
You'd think people would start listening to me more carefully....0 -
Yes. Looks that way. Pretty clear structural advantage for Leave.Pulpstar said:
This is a desperately bad poll for "remain" I think.TudorRose said:Something's wrong here.... The question says 'support or opposition', so shouldn't your chart say 'Oppose unconditionally'?
In which case less than a quarter of those surveyed are absolutely unwilling to accept some form of Brexit, which is a long way from the 48% who voted 'Remain' in June.0 -
I'd be 'It Depends on Terms' for me. A very soft Brexit would allow me to breathe a big sigh of relief, and it is what we voted for, which has some weight with almost everyone.MaxPB said:I don't get the doom and gloom for Brexit based on this poll. 64% of British people support some form of Brexit vs 24% who oppose Brexit. That looks like a terrible poll for continuity remainers.
Of course, a serious change in circumstances, such as bad Trump or Baltic invasion or economic meltdown would have me off calling for second referendum faster than a ferret up a drainpipe.
So I don't think you can take this poll as representing any shift in opinion in either direction for the underlying two-way question.0 -
A very bad poll for the polling industry - if ICM cannot construct a sensible range of options how can we possibly expect a sensible range of responses.0
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Corbyn doesn't pass the sniff test in my office.
My Lib-Dem -> UKIP switcher colleague would have voted Trump, Corbyn on null points here.0 -
Yes, I don't see how anyone who wants a second referendum or even the softest/flaccid-Brexit camp can be happy with 32% of British people supporting Brexit at whatever the cost and a further third giving it conditional support.Pulpstar said:
People need to stop looking at polling through their preferred sunglasses and see what it is actually trying to tell us.MaxPB said:I don't get the doom and gloom for Brexit based on this poll. 64% of British people support some form of Brexit vs 24% who oppose Brexit. That looks like a terrible poll for continuity remainers.
This poll was clearly designed for middle option bias, the fact that Brexit unconditional has won is a sure sign that a 2nd referendum would lead to the same result, if not a heavier defeat for remain.0 -
If the "Depends on terms" crowd get what they want. In reality Brexit will be an intractable mess where there won't be a clear set of terms where people can say, "Yep, I can sign up to those!"david_herdson said:
Yes. Looks that way. Pretty clear structural advantage for Leave.Pulpstar said:
This is a desperately bad poll for "remain" I think.TudorRose said:Something's wrong here.... The question says 'support or opposition', so shouldn't your chart say 'Oppose unconditionally'?
In which case less than a quarter of those surveyed are absolutely unwilling to accept some form of Brexit, which is a long way from the 48% who voted 'Remain' in June.0 -
You hope.FF43 said:
If the "Depends on terms" crowd get what they want. In reality Brexit will be an intractable mess where there won't be a clear set of terms where people can say, "Yep, I can sign up to those!"david_herdson said:
Yes. Looks that way. Pretty clear structural advantage for Leave.Pulpstar said:
This is a desperately bad poll for "remain" I think.TudorRose said:Something's wrong here.... The question says 'support or opposition', so shouldn't your chart say 'Oppose unconditionally'?
In which case less than a quarter of those surveyed are absolutely unwilling to accept some form of Brexit, which is a long way from the 48% who voted 'Remain' in June.0 -
I don't hope. It's what it is. The inherent contradiction of Brexit is shown up in this poll by the 32% who say "it depends on terms" AFTER the decision to go ahead has been made. if there was majority support for Brexit come what may, that would be different.MaxPB said:
You hope.FF43 said:
If the "Depends on terms" crowd get what they want. In reality Brexit will be an intractable mess where there won't be a clear set of terms where people can say, "Yep, I can sign up to those!"david_herdson said:
Yes. Looks that way. Pretty clear structural advantage for Leave.Pulpstar said:
This is a desperately bad poll for "remain" I think.TudorRose said:Something's wrong here.... The question says 'support or opposition', so shouldn't your chart say 'Oppose unconditionally'?
In which case less than a quarter of those surveyed are absolutely unwilling to accept some form of Brexit, which is a long way from the 48% who voted 'Remain' in June.0 -
Mr. 43, it will be difficult to disentangle the UK. But the other side must be considered too. As the EU integrates ever more and dreams of an EU Army, that won't entice floating voters to return.
"Vote for Brussels to command the British Army" is not a rallying call that will win much support.0 -
"Waterloo vanquished to command British Army""Morris_Dancer said:Mr. 43, it will be difficult to disentangle the UK. But the other side must be considered too. As the EU integrates ever more and dreams of an EU Army, that won't entice floating voters to return.
"Vote for Brussels to command the British Army" is not a rallying call that will win much support.0 -
My belief is thatFF43 said:
I don't hope. It's what it is. The inherent contradiction of Brexit is shown up in this poll by the 32% who say "it depends on terms" AFTER the decision to go ahead has been made. if there was majority support for Brexit come what may, that would be different.MaxPB said:
You hope.FF43 said:
If the "Depends on terms" crowd get what they want. In reality Brexit will be an intractable mess where there won't be a clear set of terms where people can say, "Yep, I can sign up to those!"david_herdson said:
Yes. Looks that way. Pretty clear structural advantage for Leave.Pulpstar said:
This is a desperately bad poll for "remain" I think.TudorRose said:Something's wrong here.... The question says 'support or opposition', so shouldn't your chart say 'Oppose unconditionally'?
In which case less than a quarter of those surveyed are absolutely unwilling to accept some form of Brexit, which is a long way from the 48% who voted 'Remain' in June.
Brexit will probably be an intractable mess.
Leave would win a second referendum come what may.0 -
I agree, if the EU collapses that would resolve the issue and we would be feeling very smug to have got out earlier.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. 43, it will be difficult to disentangle the UK. But the other side must be considered too. As the EU integrates ever more and dreams of an EU Army, that won't entice floating voters to return.
"Vote for Brussels to command the British Army" is not a rallying call that will win much support.
Depending on others to collapse of their own accord isn't a reliable strategy however.0 -
I agree with all that. Brexit will happen. Not happening is a worse option again than it happening, at this stage.Pulpstar said:
My belief is thatFF43 said:
I don't hope. It's what it is. The inherent contradiction of Brexit is shown up in this poll by the 32% who say "it depends on terms" AFTER the decision to go ahead has been made. if there was majority support for Brexit come what may, that would be different.MaxPB said:
You hope.FF43 said:
If the "Depends on terms" crowd get what they want. In reality Brexit will be an intractable mess where there won't be a clear set of terms where people can say, "Yep, I can sign up to those!"david_herdson said:
Yes. Looks that way. Pretty clear structural advantage for Leave.Pulpstar said:
This is a desperately bad poll for "remain" I think.TudorRose said:Something's wrong here.... The question says 'support or opposition', so shouldn't your chart say 'Oppose unconditionally'?
In which case less than a quarter of those surveyed are absolutely unwilling to accept some form of Brexit, which is a long way from the 48% who voted 'Remain' in June.
Brexit will probably be an intractable mess.
Leave would win a second referendum come what may.0 -
Obviously we won't have another referendum next year, but if we magically did, my opening prices would be something like:Mortimer said:
I've been saying the latter for a long time. British people do not like to be asked the same question twice.Pulpstar said:
People need to stop looking at polling through their preferred sunglasses and see what it is actually trying to tell us.MaxPB said:I don't get the doom and gloom for Brexit based on this poll. 64% of British people support some form of Brexit vs 24% who oppose Brexit. That looks like a terrible poll for continuity remainers.
This poll was clearly designed for middle option bias, the fact that Brexit unconditional has won is a sure sign that a 2nd referendum would lead to the same result, if not a heavier defeat for remain.
After:
Indyref
May 2015
Brexit
and Trump
You'd think people would start listening to me more carefully....
Leave 4/11
Remain 2/1
The idea of a referendum on the "final deal" is for the birds, as the alternative to leaving with the deal is exit with no deal. (The same position the MPs will be in...)0 -
It's what you think it is, or as I believe, what you hope it is. This time last week the reality was that Hillary would win the election and be a mediocre POTUS. In your version of reality Brexit is a disaster, who really knows what is going to happen three years from now. I certainly don't. What happens in a scenario where Juppé has to offer a Frexit vote and France votes to Leave? Would Brexit still be a disaster? Trump has already changed the game for Brexit because of his NATO stance, Europe might suddenly be more amenable to British demands on immigration and trade if they can't be sure that the US will protect the eastern border. Again, your predictions of doom are based completely on your hopes and feelings of EUphillia. It could be a disaster, but then again it might not be, personally I think it will end up being average. Not the best we could hope for (single market membership with a full veto on migration and early stage vetoes on regulations) but also acceptable to enough people and businesses that everyone will get on with their lives. I'm open to either outcome. Your hopes that this country will suffer and the EU will prosper are telling, but that's your own problem.FF43 said:
I don't hope. It's what it is. The inherent contradiction of Brexit is shown up in this poll by the 32% who say "it depends on terms" AFTER the decision to go ahead has been made. if there was majority support for Brexit come what may, that would be different.MaxPB said:
You hope.FF43 said:
If the "Depends on terms" crowd get what they want. In reality Brexit will be an intractable mess where there won't be a clear set of terms where people can say, "Yep, I can sign up to those!"david_herdson said:
Yes. Looks that way. Pretty clear structural advantage for Leave.Pulpstar said:
This is a desperately bad poll for "remain" I think.TudorRose said:Something's wrong here.... The question says 'support or opposition', so shouldn't your chart say 'Oppose unconditionally'?
In which case less than a quarter of those surveyed are absolutely unwilling to accept some form of Brexit, which is a long way from the 48% who voted 'Remain' in June.0 -
It is widely accepted that rail privatisation was not one of the more sure-footed privatisations. And yet passenger numbers have approximately doubled since.
'A bad privatisation is better than no privitisation'.
We nearly all live here, and so it is in all interests to have a 'good' Bexit. Similarly,
'A bad brexit is better than no brexit'0 -
But nor is depending on others to move towards to a form of the EU that would be acceptable to a majority of the UK population, which is really what Cameron argued.FF43 said:
I agree, if the EU collapses that would resolve the issue and we would be feeling very smug to have got out earlier.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. 43, it will be difficult to disentangle the UK. But the other side must be considered too. As the EU integrates ever more and dreams of an EU Army, that won't entice floating voters to return.
"Vote for Brussels to command the British Army" is not a rallying call that will win much support.
Depending on others to collapse of their own accord isn't a reliable strategy however.0 -
No evidence to say that privatisation cause passenger numbers to go up. House prices are a more likely cause.david_kendrick1 said:It is widely accepted that rail privatisation was not one of the more sure-footed privatisations. And yet passenger numbers have approximately doubled since.
'A bad privatisation is better than no privitisation'.
We nearly all live here, and so it is in all interests to have a 'good' Bexit. Similarly,
'A bad brexit is better than no brexit'
0 -
The real solution for this is for continental Europe to rise from its defence policy deckchair and start taking security seriously.MaxPB said:
It's what you think it is, or as I believe, what you hope it is. This time last week the reality was that Hillary would win the election and be a mediocre POTUS. In your version of reality Brexit is a disaster, who really knows what is going to happen three years from now. I certainly don't. What happens in a scenario where Juppé has to offer a Frexit vote and France votes to Leave? Would Brexit still be a disaster? Trump has already changed the game for Brexit because of his NATO stance, Europe might suddenly be more amenable to British demands on immigration and trade if they can't be sure that the US will protect the eastern border. Again, your predictions of doom are based completely on your hopes and feelings of EUphillia. It could be a disaster, but then again it might not be, personally I think it will end up being average. Not the best we could hope for (single market membership with a full veto on migration and early stage vetoes on regulations) but also acceptable to enough people and businesses that everyone will get on with their lives. I'm open to either outcome. Your hopes that this country will suffer and the EU will prosper are telling, but that's your own problem.FF43 said:
I don't hope. It's what it is. The inherent contradiction of Brexit is shown up in this poll by the 32% who say "it depends on terms" AFTER the decision to go ahead has been made. if there was majority support for Brexit come what may, that would be different.MaxPB said:
You hope.FF43 said:
If the "Depends on terms" crowd get what they want. In reality Brexit will be an intractable mess where there won't be a clear set of terms where people can say, "Yep, I can sign up to those!"david_herdson said:
Yes. Looks that way. Pretty clear structural advantage for Leave.Pulpstar said:
This is a desperately bad poll for "remain" I think.TudorRose said:Something's wrong here.... The question says 'support or opposition', so shouldn't your chart say 'Oppose unconditionally'?
In which case less than a quarter of those surveyed are absolutely unwilling to accept some form of Brexit, which is a long way from the 48% who voted 'Remain' in June.
Unless they wish to be put on by Putin.0 -
Wandering through the current state of the Democratic Party post-election, it's not too good for them. -
69 of 99 state legislative chambers are now controlled by Republicans
24 states have a Republican governor and entire Republican control of the legislature. 6 states have democratic governors and democratic controlled legislatures.
There are 34 Republican governors. 16 Democratic governors.
But the real stunner is this -
Fully 1/3 of the caucus of the democratic party in the US House of Representatives comes from just 3 states – Massachusetts, New York and California. That's a bad sign.
This is where 8 years of Obama's leadership and policies have left them. One has to hope that for the sake of the two party system it doesn't get any worse. The party has strayed far from its history as an inclusive organization projecting American values and needs to return to it.
0 -
The Chinese response to Mr Trump's trade proposals.
http://arstechnica.com/business/2016/11/china-threatens-end-iphone-sales-if-trump-imposes-stiff-tariffs/0 -
@MaxPB
'I don't get the doom and gloom for Brexit based on this poll. 64% of British people support some form of Brexit vs 24% who oppose Brexit. That looks like a terrible poll for continuity remainers.'
The poll is actually the reverse of doom & gloom,my kids for example who were ardent Remainers have gone passed it and now say get on with it.
But,why should this poll be any more accurate than all the other fails over the past two years ?
0 -
The rest of south east Asia just rejoiced from all the jobs that will move out of China building US goods!rcs1000 said:The Chinese response to Mr Trump's trade proposals.
http://arstechnica.com/business/2016/11/china-threatens-end-iphone-sales-if-trump-imposes-stiff-tariffs/0 -
Tissue_Price said:
Obviously we won't have another referendum next year, but if we magically did, my opening prices would be something like:Mortimer said:
I've been saying the latter for a long time. British people do not like to be asked the same question twice.Pulpstar said:
People need to stop looking at polling through their preferred sunglasses and see what it is actually trying to tell us.MaxPB said:I don't get the doom and gloom for Brexit based on this poll. 64% of British people support some form of Brexit vs 24% who oppose Brexit. That looks like a terrible poll for continuity remainers.
This poll was clearly designed for middle option bias, the fact that Brexit unconditional has won is a sure sign that a 2nd referendum would lead to the same result, if not a heavier defeat for remain.
After:
Indyref
May 2015
Brexit
and Trump
You'd think people would start listening to me more carefully....
Leave 4/11
Remain 2/1
The idea of a referendum on the "final deal" is for the birds, as the alternative to leaving with the deal is exit with no deal. (The same position the MPs will be in...)
It's not quite the same positions as MPs. They will have the chance to influence the government in the mean time, with their usual political skillz.
A one-off referendum on the deal is pointless.
0 -
So, excluding Don't Knows, the "Oppose Brexit" vote in July of 48% is now down to 26%.
Good news for May, bad news for Farron. The Remainers are on the wrong side of the slide....0 -
0% chance. It's not even definite that Le Pen would do so despite the anti-EU rhetoric.MaxPB said:What happens in a scenario where Juppé has to offer a Frexit vote and France votes to Leave?
0 -
Yes well, €117bn is the figure and that excludes the UK and mostly France who both meet the target on a long term basis. Germany needs to pony up. Trump is right here, it can't be left to the three major NATO powers to keep Europe's eastern border secure.MattW said:
The real solution for this is for continental Europe to rise from its defence policy deckchair and start taking security seriously.MaxPB said:
It's what you think it is, or as I believe, what you hope it is. This time last week the reality was that Hillary would win the election and be a mediocre POTUS. In your version of reality Brexit is a disaster, who really knows what is going to happen three years from now. I certainly don't. What happens in a scenario where Juppé has to offer a Frexit vote and France votes to Leave? Would Brexit still be a disaster? Trump has already changed the game for Brexit because of his NATO stance, Europe might suddenly be more amenable to British demands on immigration and trade if they can't be sure that the US will protect the eastern border. Again, your predictions of doom are based completely on your hopes and feelings of EUphillia. It could be a disaster, but then again it might not be, personally I think it will end up being average. Not the best we could hope for (single market membership with a full veto on migration and early stage vetoes on regulations) but also acceptable to enough people and businesses that everyone will get on with their lives. I'm open to either outcome. Your hopes that this country will suffer and the EU will prosper are telling, but that's your own problem.FF43 said:
I don't hope. It's what it is. The inherent contradiction of Brexit is shown up in this poll by the 32% who say "it depends on terms" AFTER the decision to go ahead has been made. if there was majority support for Brexit come what may, that would be different.MaxPB said:
You hope.FF43 said:
If the "Depends on terms" crowd get what they want. In reality Brexit will be an intractable mess where there won't be a clear set of terms where people can say, "Yep, I can sign up to those!"david_herdson said:
Yes. Looks that way. Pretty clear structural advantage for Leave.Pulpstar said:
This is a desperately bad poll for "remain" I think.TudorRose said:Something's wrong here.... The question says 'support or opposition', so shouldn't your chart say 'Oppose unconditionally'?
In which case less than a quarter of those surveyed are absolutely unwilling to accept some form of Brexit, which is a long way from the 48% who voted 'Remain' in June.
Unless they wish to be put on by Putin.0 -
''The real solution for this is for continental Europe to rise from its defence policy deckchair and start taking security seriously.''
I think its a bit much for Britain to block an EU army on the one hand and tell Europe to pay more for defence on the other.0 -
Hello all.
I went to an interesting talk recently given by a former senior member of Blair's government. He correctly guessed that Trump would win.
On Brexit his thoughts were these:-
1. The Johnson, Davis and Fox trio were a joke and not the people needed to build the relationships needed to get the best deal possible for the UK.
2. May was running scared of the voters (his words) and would seek to prioritise immigration controls for fear of being washed away by the voters if she did not. It was implicit in what he said that he felt that this was not calculated to lead to the best possible decision making.
3. The chances of getting any sort of a deal with the EU within the 2-year time frame were low to non-existent. There was a huge amount of work to be done and the devil was in the details. Those in charge - see point 1 - did not do detail.
4. He did not think the EU wished us harm and would want some sort of deal but they felt that the economic consequences of being outside the EU would necessarily not be as good as being in the EU and Britain needed to understand that.
5. Dropping out of the EU without a deal in place and only WTO terms to fall back on would be very risky indeed and if the economy fell off a cliff he could envisage a Corbyn led Labour Party winning an election, an outcome he did not welcome.
6. He thought Corbyn was very thick indeed.
7. One possible interim solution would be to formally leave the EU in March 2019 but remain a member of the Single Market pro tem until an alternative was negotiated.
8. We should not underestimate how much polticians hate - really hate - lawyers. Politicians think that they can do everything and that lawyers are just there to stop them. The Article 50 court case will only have reinforced this view and this could be seen in the reaction of May and others.
9. He thought it quite likely that within a decade Scotland would have left the Union.
Incidentally, his general tone - despite being a Remainer - was quite sympathetic to why people outside London had voted leave and he saw no evidence of buyers' remorse.0 -
The structural advantage is that the determined Leavers have 10% more than the determined Remainers.FF43 said:
If the "Depends on terms" crowd get what they want. In reality Brexit will be an intractable mess where there won't be a clear set of terms where people can say, "Yep, I can sign up to those!"david_herdson said:
Yes. Looks that way. Pretty clear structural advantage for Leave.Pulpstar said:
This is a desperately bad poll for "remain" I think.TudorRose said:Something's wrong here.... The question says 'support or opposition', so shouldn't your chart say 'Oppose unconditionally'?
In which case less than a quarter of those surveyed are absolutely unwilling to accept some form of Brexit, which is a long way from the 48% who voted 'Remain' in June.0 -
Mr Pulpstar, in regards to your question I meant thrown out as in hypothesised. I heard it discussed by pollsters in their post-mortems but as a possibility rather than something with solid evidence behind it.Pulpstar said:
My belief is thatFF43 said:
I don't hope. It's what it is. The inherent contradiction of Brexit is shown up in this poll by the 32% who say "it depends on terms" AFTER the decision to go ahead has been made. if there was majority support for Brexit come what may, that would be different.MaxPB said:
You hope.FF43 said:
If the "Depends on terms" crowd get what they want. In reality Brexit will be an intractable mess where there won't be a clear set of terms where people can say, "Yep, I can sign up to those!"david_herdson said:
Yes. Looks that way. Pretty clear structural advantage for Leave.Pulpstar said:
This is a desperately bad poll for "remain" I think.TudorRose said:Something's wrong here.... The question says 'support or opposition', so shouldn't your chart say 'Oppose unconditionally'?
In which case less than a quarter of those surveyed are absolutely unwilling to accept some form of Brexit, which is a long way from the 48% who voted 'Remain' in June.
Brexit will probably be an intractable mess.
Leave would win a second referendum come what may.
(My three pieces got written as one long ramble in the pretty immediate aftermath of the election then sliced into PB appropriate chunks so in some cases got overtaken by information coming to light after I wrote it).0 -
That's similar to Britain where 55% of all Labour seats in Parliament are now found in an English Core City (one of the big eight cities outside London) or in London itself.Tim_B said:Wandering through the current state of the Democratic Party post-election, it's not too good for them. -
69 of 99 state legislative chambers are now controlled by Republicans
24 states have a Republican governor and entire Republican control of the legislature. 6 states have democratic governors and democratic controlled legislatures.
There are 34 Republican governors. 16 Democratic governors.
But the real stunner is this -
Fully 1/3 of the caucus of the democratic party in the US House of Representatives comes from just 3 states – Massachusetts, New York and California. That's a bad sign.
This is where 8 years of Obama's leadership and policies have left them. One has to hope that for the sake of the two party system it doesn't get any worse. The party has strayed far from its history as an inclusive organization projecting American values and needs to return to it.0 -
Only 23%* opposed. The 48% are now coming to their senses!
(*26% excluding DK)0 -
Well, he was definitely wrong on 6. Just ask Labour MPs!Cyclefree said:Hello all.
I went to an interesting talk recently given by a former senior member of Blair's government. He correctly guessed that Trump would win.
On Brexit his thoughts were these:-
1. The Johnson, Davis and Fox trio were a joke and not the people needed to build the relationships needed to get the best deal possible for the UK.
2. May was running scared of the voters (his words) and would seek to prioritise immigration controls for fear of being washed away by the voters if she did not. It was implicit in what he said that he felt that this was not calculated to lead to the best possible decision making.
3. The chances of getting any sort of a deal with the EU within the 2-year time frame were low to non-existent. There was a huge amount of work to be done and the devil was in the details. Those in charge - see point 1 - did not do detail.
4. He did not think the EU wished us harm and would want some sort of deal but they felt that the economic consequences of being outside the EU would necessarily not be as good as being in the EU and Britain needed to understand that.
5. Dropping out of the EU without a deal in place and only WTO terms to fall back on would be very risky indeed and if the economy fell off a cliff he could envisage a Corbyn led Labour Party winning an election, an outcome he did not welcome.
6. He thought Corbyn was very thick indeed.
7. One possible interim solution would be to formally leave the EU in March 2019 but remain a member of the Single Market pro tem until an alternative was negotiated.
8. We should not underestimate how much polticians hate - really hate - lawyers. Politicians think that they can do everything and that lawyers are just there to stop them. The Article 50 court case will only have reinforced this view and this could be seen in the reaction of May and others.
9. He thought it quite likely that within a decade Scotland would have left the Union.
Incidentally, his general tone - despite being a Remainer - was quite sympathetic to why people outside London had voted leave and he saw no evidence of buyers' remorse.0 -
The parties of immigrants and the liberal chattering classes. Both parties are in long term decline, as evidenced by Corbyn and losing to the US version of Nigel.AlastairMeeks said:
That's similar to Britain where 55% of all Labour seats in Parliament are now found in an English Core City (one of the big eight cities outside London) or in London itself.Tim_B said:Wandering through the current state of the Democratic Party post-election, it's not too good for them. -
69 of 99 state legislative chambers are now controlled by Republicans
24 states have a Republican governor and entire Republican control of the legislature. 6 states have democratic governors and democratic controlled legislatures.
There are 34 Republican governors. 16 Democratic governors.
But the real stunner is this -
Fully 1/3 of the caucus of the democratic party in the US House of Representatives comes from just 3 states – Massachusetts, New York and California. That's a bad sign.
This is where 8 years of Obama's leadership and policies have left them. One has to hope that for the sake of the two party system it doesn't get any worse. The party has strayed far from its history as an inclusive organization projecting American values and needs to return to it.0 -
I recall point no. 8 being impressed on me many years ago by a member of Blair's government (for all I know he may have been the same one - he was/is a lawyer as well). The argument was that a lot of politicians had backgrounds in local government where they kept being told the money they wanted for some pet project had to be spent elsewhere because somebody had sued the council ('sorry, Councillor, we can't build you new road. We need the money to renovate our entire housing stock because some tenants took us to court.')Cyclefree said:Hello all.
I went to an interesting talk recently given by a former senior member of Blair's government. He correctly guessed that Trump would win.
On Brexit his thoughts were these:-
1. The Johnson, Davis and Fox trio were a joke and not the people needed to build the relationships needed to get the best deal possible for the UK.
2. May was running scared of the voters (his words) and would seek to prioritise immigration controls for fear of being washed away by the voters if she did not. It was implicit in what he said that he felt that this was not calculated to lead to the best possible decision making.
3. The chances of getting any sort of a deal with the EU within the 2-year time frame were low to non-existent. There was a huge amount of work to be done and the devil was in the details. Those in charge - see point 1 - did not do detail.
4. He did not think the EU wished us harm and would want some sort of deal but they felt that the economic consequences of being outside the EU would necessarily not be as good as being in the EU and Britain needed to understand that.
5. Dropping out of the EU without a deal in place and only WTO terms to fall back on would be very risky indeed and if the economy fell off a cliff he could envisage a Corbyn led Labour Party winning an election, an outcome he did not welcome.
6. He thought Corbyn was very thick indeed.
7. One possible interim solution would be to formally leave the EU in March 2019 but remain a member of the Single Market pro tem until an alternative was negotiated.
8. We should not underestimate how much polticians hate - really hate - lawyers. Politicians think that they can do everything and that lawyers are just there to stop them. The Article 50 court case will only have reinforced this view and this could be seen in the reaction of May and others.
9. He thought it quite likely that within a decade Scotland would have left the Union.
Incidentally, his general tone - despite being a Remainer - was quite sympathetic to why people outside London had voted leave and he saw no evidence of buyers' remorse.0 -
Thankscorporeal said:
Mr Pulpstar, in regards to your question I meant thrown out as in hypothesised. I heard it discussed by pollsters in their post-mortems but as a possibility rather than something with solid evidence behind it.Pulpstar said:
My belief is thatFF43 said:
I don't hope. It's what it is. The inherent contradiction of Brexit is shown up in this poll by the 32% who say "it depends on terms" AFTER the decision to go ahead has been made. if there was majority support for Brexit come what may, that would be different.MaxPB said:
You hope.FF43 said:
If the "Depends on terms" crowd get what they want. In reality Brexit will be an intractable mess where there won't be a clear set of terms where people can say, "Yep, I can sign up to those!"david_herdson said:
Yes. Looks that way. Pretty clear structural advantage for Leave.Pulpstar said:
This is a desperately bad poll for "remain" I think.TudorRose said:Something's wrong here.... The question says 'support or opposition', so shouldn't your chart say 'Oppose unconditionally'?
In which case less than a quarter of those surveyed are absolutely unwilling to accept some form of Brexit, which is a long way from the 48% who voted 'Remain' in June.
Brexit will probably be an intractable mess.
Leave would win a second referendum come what may.
(My three pieces got written as one long ramble in the pretty immediate aftermath of the election then sliced into PB appropriate chunks so in some cases got overtaken by information coming to light after I wrote it). 0 -
This is libel. I demonstrably don't hope this country will suffer. I don't even think I have said Brexit will be a disaster, at least in economic terms. It could be painful and it certainly isn't a GOOD thing for our economy and living standards. The extent of the pain partly depends on politicians facing up to reality and acting with more circumspect than they have been doing.MaxPB said:
It's what you think it is, or as I believe, what you hope it is. This time last week the reality was that Hillary would win the election and be a mediocre POTUS. In your version of reality Brexit is a disaster, who really knows what is going to happen three years from now. I certainly don't. What happens in a scenario where Juppé has to offer a Frexit vote and France votes to Leave? Would Brexit still be a disaster? Trump has already changed the game for Brexit because of his NATO stance, Europe might suddenly be more amenable to British demands on immigration and trade if they can't be sure that the US will protect the eastern border. Again, your predictions of doom are based completely on your hopes and feelings of EUphillia. It could be a disaster, but then again it might not be, personally I think it will end up being average. Not the best we could hope for (single market membership with a full veto on migration and early stage vetoes on regulations) but also acceptable to enough people and businesses that everyone will get on with their lives. I'm open to either outcome. Your hopes that this country will suffer and the EU will prosper are telling, but that's your own problem.FF43 said:
I don't hope. It's what it is. The inherent contradiction of Brexit is shown up in this poll by the 32% who say "it depends on terms" AFTER the decision to go ahead has been made. if there was majority support for Brexit come what may, that would be different.
Politically Brexit will be a mess however because it was sold on false assumptions about markets and Britain's place in the world and at some point the delusions will peel away and people will say, that wasn't what we were sold. Politically it's an Iraq War situation.0 -
@taffys
'I think its a bit much for Britain to block an EU army on the one hand and tell Europe to pay more for defence on the other.'
Why should the US,UK or France have to pay when Germany can't be arsed, it's not as if they can't afford it, the 2% contribution hasn't appeared overnight ?
0 -
Ms Free.
As ever, thanks for a very interesting comment.0 -
You mean that diehard Remainers are unable to stop Brexit? I agree with that. But that's not the biggest problem with Brexit.david_herdson said:
The structural advantage is that the determined Leavers have 10% more than the determined Remainers.FF43 said:
If the "Depends on terms" crowd get what they want. In reality Brexit will be an intractable mess where there won't be a clear set of terms where people can say, "Yep, I can sign up to those!"david_herdson said:
Yes. Looks that way. Pretty clear structural advantage for Leave.Pulpstar said:
This is a desperately bad poll for "remain" I think.TudorRose said:Something's wrong here.... The question says 'support or opposition', so shouldn't your chart say 'Oppose unconditionally'?
In which case less than a quarter of those surveyed are absolutely unwilling to accept some form of Brexit, which is a long way from the 48% who voted 'Remain' in June.0 -
Unfortunately both parties appear to have forgotten that they are primarily there to promote the interests of the working man/woman and their families. And now they (the parties) wonder why they can't guarantee to receive their votes.MaxPB said:
The parties of immigrants and the liberal chattering classes. Both parties are in long term decline, as evidenced by Corbyn and losing to the US version of Nigel.AlastairMeeks said:
That's similar to Britain where 55% of all Labour seats in Parliament are now found in an English Core City (one of the big eight cities outside London) or in London itself.Tim_B said:Wandering through the current state of the Democratic Party post-election, it's not too good for them. -
69 of 99 state legislative chambers are now controlled by Republicans
24 states have a Republican governor and entire Republican control of the legislature. 6 states have democratic governors and democratic controlled legislatures.
There are 34 Republican governors. 16 Democratic governors.
But the real stunner is this -
Fully 1/3 of the caucus of the democratic party in the US House of Representatives comes from just 3 states – Massachusetts, New York and California. That's a bad sign.
This is where 8 years of Obama's leadership and policies have left them. One has to hope that for the sake of the two party system it doesn't get any worse. The party has strayed far from its history as an inclusive organization projecting American values and needs to return to it.0 -
''Why should the US,UK or France have to pay when Germany can't be arsed, it's not as if they can't afford it, the 2% contribution hasn't appeared overnight ?''
Then allow the EU to create its own army. Why are we blocking this? what's it got to do with us?0 -
Unlike Labour and the Tories, though, the Democrats get more votes than the Republicans on a regular basis.AlastairMeeks said:
That's similar to Britain where 55% of all Labour seats in Parliament are now found in an English Core City (one of the big eight cities outside London) or in London itself.Tim_B said:Wandering through the current state of the Democratic Party post-election, it's not too good for them. -
69 of 99 state legislative chambers are now controlled by Republicans
24 states have a Republican governor and entire Republican control of the legislature. 6 states have democratic governors and democratic controlled legislatures.
There are 34 Republican governors. 16 Democratic governors.
But the real stunner is this -
Fully 1/3 of the caucus of the democratic party in the US House of Representatives comes from just 3 states – Massachusetts, New York and California. That's a bad sign.
This is where 8 years of Obama's leadership and policies have left them. One has to hope that for the sake of the two party system it doesn't get any worse. The party has strayed far from its history as an inclusive organization projecting American values and needs to return to it.
And Democrat states drive the US economy.
0 -
That's almost exactly my take, including sympathy towards those that voted Leave.Cyclefree said:Hello all.
I went to an interesting talk recently given by a former senior member of Blair's government. He correctly guessed that Trump would win.
On Brexit his thoughts were these:-
1. The Johnson, Davis and Fox trio were a joke and not the people needed to build the relationships needed to get the best deal possible for the UK.
2. May was running scared of the voters (his words) and would seek to prioritise immigration controls for fear of being washed away by the voters if she did not. It was implicit in what he said that he felt that this was not calculated to lead to the best possible decision making.
3. The chances of getting any sort of a deal with the EU within the 2-year time frame were low to non-existent. There was a huge amount of work to be done and the devil was in the details. Those in charge - see point 1 - did not do detail.
4. He did not think the EU wished us harm and would want some sort of deal but they felt that the economic consequences of being outside the EU would necessarily not be as good as being in the EU and Britain needed to understand that.
5. Dropping out of the EU without a deal in place and only WTO terms to fall back on would be very risky indeed and if the economy fell off a cliff he could envisage a Corbyn led Labour Party winning an election, an outcome he did not welcome.
6. He thought Corbyn was very thick indeed.
7. One possible interim solution would be to formally leave the EU in March 2019 but remain a member of the Single Market pro tem until an alternative was negotiated.
8. We should not underestimate how much polticians hate - really hate - lawyers. Politicians think that they can do everything and that lawyers are just there to stop them. The Article 50 court case will only have reinforced this view and this could be seen in the reaction of May and others.
9. He thought it quite likely that within a decade Scotland would have left the Union.
Incidentally, his general tone - despite being a Remainer - was quite sympathetic to why people outside London had voted leave and he saw no evidence of buyers' remorse.
On point 7, which is likely to be semi-permanent, our* choices are no effective deal or no effective change. No effective change is less painful but it takes discretion and good will to agree to.
* OUR choice requires buy-in from EU partners as well as us0 -
The Labour MP Jo Cox was shot three times and stabbed repeatedly in a pre-planned murder with a political or ideological motive, the trial of the accused man has been told.
Thomas Mair repeatedly said the words “Britain first” as he carried out the attack, Richard Whittam QC, prosecuting, told the Old Bailey on Monday. He struck as Cox went about her business in her constituency during the EU referendum campaign.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/nov/14/jo-cox-killed-in-politically-motivated-murder-trial-thomas-mair-hears?CMP=twt_gu0 -
There is a similar dislike of lawyers in finance and in business. Essentially, they are risk managers who say No, so it's not a huge surprise.Carolus_Rex said:
I recall point no. 8 being impressed on me many years ago by a member of Blair's government (for all I know he may have been the same one - he was/is a lawyer as well). The argument was that a lot of politicians had backgrounds in local government where they kept being told the money they wanted for some pet project had to be spent elsewhere because somebody had sued the council ('sorry, Councillor, we can't build you new road. We need the money to renovate our entire housing stock because some tenants took us to court.')Cyclefree said:Hello all.
I went to an interesting talk recently given by a former senior member of Blair's government. He correctly guessed that Trump would win.
On Brexit his thoughts were these:-
1. The Johnson, Davis and Fox trio were a joke and not the people needed to build the relationships needed to get the best deal possible for the UK.
2. May was running scared of the voters (his words) and would seek to prioritise immigration controls for fear of being washed away by the voters if she did not. It was implicit in what he said that he felt that this was not calculated to lead to the best possible decision making.
3. The chances of getting any sort of a deal with the EU within the 2-year time frame were low to non-existent. There was a huge amount of work to be done and the devil was in the details. Those in charge - see point 1 - did not do detail.
4. He did not think the EU wished us harm and would want some sort of deal but they felt that the economic consequences of being outside the EU would necessarily not be as good as being in the EU and Britain needed to understand that.
5. Dropping out of the EU without a deal in place and only WTO terms to fall back on would be very risky indeed and if the economy fell off a cliff he could envisage a Corbyn led Labour Party winning an election, an outcome he did not welcome.
6. He thought Corbyn was very thick indeed.
7. One possible interim solution would be to formally leave the EU in March 2019 but remain a member of the Single Market pro tem until an alternative was negotiated.
8. We should not underestimate how much polticians hate - really hate - lawyers. Politicians think that they can do everything and that lawyers are just there to stop them. The Article 50 court case will only have reinforced this view and this could be seen in the reaction of May and others.
9. He thought it quite likely that within a decade Scotland would have left the Union.
Incidentally, his general tone - despite being a Remainer - was quite sympathetic to why people outside London had voted leave and he saw no evidence of buyers' remorse.
0 -
The only one I would disagree with is 5. There is a snowball's chance in hell of Corbyn ever leading Labour to a general election victory, whatever the circumstances.FF43 said:
That's almost exactly my take, including sympathy towards those that voted Leave.Cyclefree said:Hello all.
I went to an interesting talk recently given by a former senior member of Blair's government. He correctly guessed that Trump would win.
On Brexit his thoughts were these:-
1. The Johnson, Davis and Fox trio were a joke and not the people needed to build the relationships needed to get the best deal possible for the UK.
2. May was running scared of the voters (his words) and would seek to prioritise immigration controls for fear of being washed away by the voters if she did not. It was implicit in what he said that he felt that this was not calculated to lead to the best possible decision making.
3. The chances of getting any sort of a deal with the EU within the 2-year time frame were low to non-existent. There was a huge amount of work to be done and the devil was in the details. Those in charge - see point 1 - did not do detail.
4. He did not think the EU wished us harm and would want some sort of deal but they felt that the economic consequences of being outside the EU would necessarily not be as good as being in the EU and Britain needed to understand that.
5. Dropping out of the EU without a deal in place and only WTO terms to fall back on would be very risky indeed and if the economy fell off a cliff he could envisage a Corbyn led Labour Party winning an election, an outcome he did not welcome.
6. He thought Corbyn was very thick indeed.
7. One possible interim solution would be to formally leave the EU in March 2019 but remain a member of the Single Market pro tem until an alternative was negotiated.
8. We should not underestimate how much polticians hate - really hate - lawyers. Politicians think that they can do everything and that lawyers are just there to stop them. The Article 50 court case will only have reinforced this view and this could be seen in the reaction of May and others.
9. He thought it quite likely that within a decade Scotland would have left the Union.
Incidentally, his general tone - despite being a Remainer - was quite sympathetic to why people outside London had voted leave and he saw no evidence of buyers' remorse.
On point 7, which is likely to be semi-permanent, our* choices are no effective deal or no effective change. No effective change is less painful but it takes discretion and good will to agree to.
* OUR choice requires buy-in from EU partners as well as us
0 -
Mr. Taffys, so long as we're paying membership fees, we get a say. If the EU wants to end our fees, I'm sure that'd be accepted.0
-
Plenty of clients of the firm I'm at don't like lawyers. They all pay the bill.SouthamObserver said:
There is a similar dislike of lawyers in finance and in business. Essentially, they are risk managers who say No, so it's not a huge surprise.Carolus_Rex said:
I recall point no. 8 being impressed on me many years ago by a member of Blair's government (for all I know he may have been the same one - he was/is a lawyer as well). The argument was that a lot of politicians had backgrounds in local government where they kept being told the money they wanted for some pet project had to be spent elsewhere because somebody had sued the council ('sorry, Councillor, we can't build you new road. We need the money to renovate our entire housing stock because some tenants took us to court.')Cyclefree said:Hello all.
I went to an interesting talk recently given by a former senior member of Blair's government. He correctly guessed that Trump would win.
On Brexit his thoughts were these:-
1. The Johnson, Davis and Fox trio were a joke and not the people needed to build the relationships needed to get the best deal possible for the UK.
2. May was running scared of the voters (his words) and would seek to prioritise immigration controls for fear of being washed away by the voters if she did not.
3. The chances of getting any sort of a deal with the EU within the 2-year time frame were low to non-existent. There was a huge amount of work to be done and the devil was in the details. Those in charge - see point 1 - did not do detail.
4. He did not think the EU wished us harm and would want some sort of deal but they felt that the economic consequences of being outside the EU would necessarily not be as good as being in the EU and Britain needed to understand that.
5. Dropping out of the EU without a deal in place and only WTO terms to fall back on would be very risky indeed and if the economy fell off a cliff he could envisage a Corbyn led Labour Party winning an election, an outcome he did not welcome.
6. He thought Corbyn was very thick indeed.
7. One possible interim solution would be to formally leave the EU in March 2019 but remain a member of the Single Market pro tem until an alternative was negotiated.
8. We should not underestimate how much polticians hate - really hate - lawyers. Politicians think that they can do everything and that lawyers are just there to stop them. The Article 50 court case will only have reinforced this view and this could be seen in the reaction of May and others.
9. He thought it quite likely that within a decade Scotland would have left the Union.
Incidentally, his general tone - despite being a Remainer - was quite sympathetic to why people outside London had voted leave and he saw no evidence of buyers' remorse.0 -
Another good way of saving the two party system would be to end gerrymandering of congressional districts and to act aggressively against voter suppression. What are the chances, do you think?Tim_B said:Wandering through the current state of the Democratic Party post-election, it's not too good for them. -
69 of 99 state legislative chambers are now controlled by Republicans
24 states have a Republican governor and entire Republican control of the legislature. 6 states have democratic governors and democratic controlled legislatures.
There are 34 Republican governors. 16 Democratic governors.
But the real stunner is this -
Fully 1/3 of the caucus of the democratic party in the US House of Representatives comes from just 3 states – Massachusetts, New York and California. That's a bad sign.
This is where 8 years of Obama's leadership and policies have left them. One has to hope that for the sake of the two party system it doesn't get any worse. The party has strayed far from its history as an inclusive organization projecting American values and needs to return to it.
0 -
Seems bizarre that politicians hate lawyers, half the commons must be made up of barristers.FF43 said:
That's almost exactly my take, including sympathy towards those that voted Leave.Cyclefree said:Hello all.
I went to an interesting talk recently given by a former senior member of Blair's government. He correctly guessed that Trump would win.
On Brexit his thoughts were these:-
1. The Johnson, Davis and Fox trio were a joke and not the people needed to build the relationships needed to get the best deal possible for the UK.
2. May was running scared of the voters (his words) and would seek to prioritise immigration controls for fear of being washed away by the voters if she did not. It was implicit in what he said that he felt that this was not calculated to lead to the best possible decision making.
3. The chances of getting any sort of a deal with the EU within the 2-year time frame were low to non-existent. There was a huge amount of work to be done and the devil was in the details. Those in charge - see point 1 - did not do detail.
4. He did not think the EU wished us harm and would want some sort of deal but they felt that the economic consequences of being outside the EU would necessarily not be as good as being in the EU and Britain needed to understand that.
5. Dropping out of the EU without a deal in place and only WTO terms to fall back on would be very risky indeed and if the economy fell off a cliff he could envisage a Corbyn led Labour Party winning an election, an outcome he did not welcome.
6. He thought Corbyn was very thick indeed.
7. One possible interim solution would be to formally leave the EU in March 2019 but remain a member of the Single Market pro tem until an alternative was negotiated.
8. We should not underestimate how much polticians hate - really hate - lawyers. Politicians think that they can do everything and that lawyers are just there to stop them. The Article 50 court case will only have reinforced this view and this could be seen in the reaction of May and others.
9. He thought it quite likely that within a decade Scotland would have left the Union.
Incidentally, his general tone - despite being a Remainer - was quite sympathetic to why people outside London had voted leave and he saw no evidence of buyers' remorse.
On point 7, which is likely to be semi-permanent, our* choices are no effective deal or no effective change. No effective change is less painful but it takes discretion and good will to agree to.
* OUR choice requires buy-in from EU partners as well as us0 -
Austrian election looks like it'll be just as close as it was the first time around:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austrian_presidential_election,_2016#Second_round_re-vote0 -
Democrats should also address their shocking mid term turnout issues. The ground for POTUS is shaped by those troops.SouthamObserver said:
Another good way of saving the two party system would be to end gerrymandering of congressional districts and to act aggressively against voter suppression. What are the chances, do you think?Tim_B said:Wandering through the current state of the Democratic Party post-election, it's not too good for them. -
69 of 99 state legislative chambers are now controlled by Republicans
24 states have a Republican governor and entire Republican control of the legislature. 6 states have democratic governors and democratic controlled legislatures.
There are 34 Republican governors. 16 Democratic governors.
But the real stunner is this -
Fully 1/3 of the caucus of the democratic party in the US House of Representatives comes from just 3 states – Massachusetts, New York and California. That's a bad sign.
This is where 8 years of Obama's leadership and policies have left them. One has to hope that for the sake of the two party system it doesn't get any worse. The party has strayed far from its history as an inclusive organization projecting American values and needs to return to it.
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Micturating mediocrity ?AlastairMeeks said:
Would you prefer "urinously underwhelming"?PeterMannion said:"piss-poor"
Really necessary?
Or is that too generous ?0 -
That Trump got North Carolina's EC votes on the back of egregious voter suppression is a real stain on the 2016 election. If that had made the difference, he would have a real problem with claiming a credible mandate, losing the popular vote too.SouthamObserver said:
Another good way of saving the two party system would be to end gerrymandering of congressional districts and to act aggressively against voter suppression. What are the chances, do you think?Tim_B said:Wandering through the current state of the Democratic Party post-election, it's not too good for them. -
69 of 99 state legislative chambers are now controlled by Republicans
24 states have a Republican governor and entire Republican control of the legislature. 6 states have democratic governors and democratic controlled legislatures.
There are 34 Republican governors. 16 Democratic governors.
But the real stunner is this -
Fully 1/3 of the caucus of the democratic party in the US House of Representatives comes from just 3 states – Massachusetts, New York and California. That's a bad sign.
This is where 8 years of Obama's leadership and policies have left them. One has to hope that for the sake of the two party system it doesn't get any worse. The party has strayed far from its history as an inclusive organization projecting American values and needs to return to it.0 -
Mr. JS, I do wonder if there'll be dodginess in Austria once again.0
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The map is SO similiar to the US and UK in terms of WHERE the right wing and left wing broadly are.AndyJS said:Austrian election looks like it'll be just as close as it was the first time around:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austrian_presidential_election,_2016#Second_round_re-vote
Every contest seemingly urban vs rural right now.0 -
The Uk wants EU countries to work within NATO rather than set up an EU offshoot that pulls away from NATO.john_zims said:@taffys
'Then allow the EU to create its own army. Why are we blocking this? what's it got to do with us?'
How & why are we blocking this as we are leaving the EU & without us there is no block ?0 -
It was also a big issue in Wisconsin.MarqueeMark said:
That Trump got North Carolina's EC votes on the back of egregious voter suppression is a real stain on the 2016 election. If that had made the difference, he would have a real problem with claiming a credible mandate, losing the popular vote too.SouthamObserver said:
Another good way of saving the two party system would be to end gerrymandering of congressional districts and to act aggressively against voter suppression. What are the chances, do you think?Tim_B said:Wandering through the current state of the Democratic Party post-election, it's not too good for them. -
69 of 99 state legislative chambers are now controlled by Republicans
24 states have a Republican governor and entire Republican control of the legislature. 6 states have democratic governors and democratic controlled legislatures.
There are 34 Republican governors. 16 Democratic governors.
But the real stunner is this -
Fully 1/3 of the caucus of the democratic party in the US House of Representatives comes from just 3 states – Massachusetts, New York and California. That's a bad sign.
This is where 8 years of Obama's leadership and policies have left them. One has to hope that for the sake of the two party system it doesn't get any worse. The party has strayed far from its history as an inclusive organization projecting American values and needs to return to it.
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