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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » … Meanwhile back in Richmond Park there could be a new poll in
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » … Meanwhile back in Richmond Park there could be a new poll in next day or so
Zac's anti LHR3 by-election campaign gets weirder. He's recruited pro-3rd runway, fellow Etonian, Jacob Rees Mogg, as one of his advocates pic.twitter.com/giawR2P462
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* Oxfam, Big Tech, the Pope, the WEF. Fellow travellers like those. >
Trump looking at quickest way to quit Paris climate agreement, says report
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/13/trump-looking-at-quickest-way-to-quit-paris-climate-agreement-says-report?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.125798504
Hopefully the good people of Richmond will want to make a stand against the global march of populism.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/13/donald-trump-election-terrifying-president-global-economy-security
https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/797584449047265281
How the heck did Hillary Clinton and the Democrats managed to lose the working class to a man covered with gold ?
Ecology - stewardship and dominion - is at the core of human existence: but the LibDems have made it a false god to be worshiped. Careful husbanding of the world's resources doesn't mean crushing the aspirations of millions of impoverished people in emerging markets, nor does it mean causing our own to suffer by transporting jobs overseas.
The Lib Dems might have the right questions, but they sure as heck don't have the answers.
Most Tories know that Fox is an absurd dimwitted non-entity.
Worse than that he's boring.
International trade secretary isn't that important a post: it is time consuming drudgery with most of the work being done by the professional negotiators. He just has to run around and look busy.
Inconveniently for your argument this was all set out years ago in the Stern Review. Nicholas Stern has said recently that he underestimated the negative economic effects of Climate Change.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stern_Review
If Trump tries to resile from hard-won international agreements he will have global public and political opinion against him. He's powerful, but not that powerful.
I'm not a climate scientist, but while climate change has always happened and and will continue to happen, it seems likely that human activity plays a part in that. However, expensive energy is not the way forward - that has a deleterious economic impact on the lives of people today. Far better to focus on mitigation and on developing new sources of protein*. Clearly supporting the trend towards cleaner fuels - whether shale gas, nuclear or renewable sources has a role as well, but the government has approached it in the wrong way.
(*The reason why governments are worried about global temperatures, by the way, is nothing to do with the sort of weather events that the Daily Mail likes to write about. It's entirely driven by rice production in South East Asia. "Feed The Nine" is a big enough challenge as it is - if rice production fails then we are a world of sh1t).
The findings of the ICM poll will please the growing number of MPs and peers calling for the government to clarify the terms of the exit – a demand that puts them on a collision course with Theresa May, who has made it clear that she is determined to begin the departure process in March.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/nov/12/brexit-article-50-parliament-eu-farron-may
http://www.cracked.com/blog/6-reasons-trumps-rise-that-no-one-talks-about/
Weather forecast suggests it'll be dry in Sao Paulo.
Rosberg will be pleased.
In parts of America there are people who spend all day in the cold, freezing half to death in a queue for the food bank. Many have no warm clothes or teeth and, forgive my language, but exactly how much of a shit do you think they give about transgender issues or the effing polar bear?
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news-review/pipe-down-and-come-with-me-on-a-tour-of-trumps-britain-2rgj2ws9h
One key message is that trade deals are far more expensive than we’ve treated them, because sustained job development and training programs need to be counted as part of their costs.
At a deeper level, both parties need an economic program that can deliver middle-class jobs. Republicans have one: Unleash American business. Democrats? They remain obsessed with cultural issues. I fully understand why transgender bathrooms are important, but I also understand why progressives’ obsession with prioritizing cultural issues infuriates many Americans whose chief concerns are economic.
https://hbr.org/2016/11/what-so-many-people-dont-get-about-the-u-s-working-class
The problem is twofold, overcrowding and lack of fresh water. It is the lack of space that is one main cause of friction; you only have to look in the packed buses and tube trains in London and other big cities to see the snarls on the faces of the travellers. But the main threat is the lack of fresh drinking and wash water, first in the desert areas and now in Europe and America. This will bring on wars of survival; very ugly indeed .
But water also matters. Obviously
When she went around saying, "Brexit is Brexit and we'll make it a success" she presumably thought it was going to be a success. She hasn't said that for a while but that's when she appointed Liam Fox. Maybe she would appoint differently now. Safe pairs of hands would be more attractive I suspect.
"Nothing that happens outside the city matters!" they say at their cocktail parties, blissfully unaware of where their food is grown. Hey, remember when Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans? Kind of weird that a big hurricane hundreds of miles across managed to snipe one specific city and avoid everything else. To watch the news (or the multiple movies and TV shows about it), you'd barely hear about how the storm utterly steamrolled rural Mississippi, killing 238 people and doing an astounding $125 billion in damage.
But who cares about those people, right? What's newsworthy about a bunch of toothless hillbillies crying over a flattened trailer? New Orleans is culturally important. It matters.
The rural folk with the Trump signs in their yards say their way of life is dying, and you smirk and say what they really mean is that blacks and gays are finally getting equal rights and they hate it. But I'm telling you, they say their way of life is dying because their way of life is dying. It's not their imagination
We've seen some commentary before along these lines, but it seems to be getting more and more relevant, where people like Wong or, say, Samuel Dale in this recent Uncut article, are at least trying to grapple with the fact that they do truly believe societal changes have been for the better, they recognise dark and unpleasant aspects of those they oppose who have just won (so do I in fact), but are realizing something is wrong with how they and others are opposing it which means they are failing.
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2016/11/11/identity-politics-and-snobbery-are-destroying-liberalism/
This was the complete embodiment of the failure of American liberalism. An impotent march in a bastion of liberalism shouting about fringe issues among ourselves. Completely and utterly pointless...
Identity politics is growing in the UK too as Labour shrinks under Corbyn. We see it in Sadiq Khan’s London where his Muslim faith is held up as an intrinsic virtue. No, it isn’t. It’s great to have a Muslim mayor in an era of Islamophobia but we should assess his policies first and not his identity. We have lost sight of that. There is absolutely nothing wrong with being a middle aged white man. And there is nothing inherently virtuous about being a female ethnic minority. This left liberal stridency on identity has to end now.
Having recently read The Road to Wigan Pier for the first time, I am reminded of Orwell's rage in that it seemed he felt victory for the Left was absolutely necessary for the country, but was being put forth in the wrong way by the wrong people, belittling things important for ordinary people and losing potential converts as a result.
Wong in that article doesn't think his liberal view is incorrect, nor do I, he hasn't had some epiphany where he will switch to a non-liberal position, but he hits the nail on the head in terms of understanding that it was the dismissal of all concerns due to a sense of superiority that has so undermined the liberal message.
1 of 2
The latter is clearly the best option to take, but it is never easy, admittedly. I'm genuinely surprised 'unconditional' support is that high, that seems quite promising for the government.
2 of 2
But fundamentally pre actual Brexit the decision to engage is a prime ministerial one with our partner countries. I am sure that many will do so in private. Once they decide to engage the work is done by the professionals.
There's just not much of a real role for Liam Fox
http://thefederalist.com/2016/11/11/donald-trump-just-made-10-things-cool/
If she loses the Tory right then she would end up no longer being PM- and probably someone much less capable would end up taking over. That's hardly good for the country also.
To make any sense of it, the pollster should have calibrated. E.g., By asking, do you give unconditional support to the EU, or the police, or the Labour Party, or the NHS ?
It actual looks like a question a pollster would ask when they desired to get a majority saying No, and so provide material for the Guardian article.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2RNaspc5Ep4
Talking tommy rot (higher wages will bring down immigration etc) but no more than any other bonkers politician these days; this could be his time...
So, the worst possible commentator to provide any insight into what we are facing.
I suppose it is the opposite of Trump, where his outrageous style means its hard to pick up when he says something sensible.
The other things I'm picking up are continuing dislike of the LibDems among people who voted for them in the past, two-way movement on Corbyn (some attracted for the first time, some defecting for the first time), a degree of exasperation among UKIP voters who still want to vote for them but feel they're just a mess, and above all a lot of people who don't think much about politics and are just planning to vote as they usually do.
A good day to all.
Some people just like whining.
As an aside, one reason I'm not getting Mass Effect Andromeda (as well as disliking the DLC approach of Bioware) is that one of the people working on it has posted anti-white stuff, which seems bizarrely acceptable to some people.
What pollsters can't do accurately is call very close binary races, or pick up different voting patterns in types of constituencies or States. In the case of the latter, good and honest canvassing is essential. I can only assume that either the quality of Clinton's canvassing in Wisconsin and Michigan was terrible, or that she wasn't being told what they were picking up on the ground.
Scotus Cruz ?
Still off topic, making a UK analogy of the US, Labour and the Conservatives got knocked out in the primaries and voters were left with a choice of UKIP or LibDems. If that was the choice on the ballot here, we wouldn't be surprised if WWC voters either stayed at home or voted for the populist.
Labour needs to learn and learn fast from Hillary's defeat.
It's in the same category as making Spiderman a lesbian.
Just a few weeks ago in Princeton.