It does seem that, unlike other recent shocks, the circumstances still do not favour them, but the problem will be if you say that others will draw equivalency with Trump and Brexit etc and say we are doing the same dismissing.
There is a huge difference, though. There were plenty of polls showing Brexit leading, and Donald Trump was scoring close to Hilary. (And, indeed she beat him in popular vote.)
Let Pen loses more than 2:1 to Juppe in every poll that has been taken.
This feels a little bit like saying "well, Mussolini won in Italy, and Hitler in Germany, therefore Moseley is certain to win here."
rcs is way too optimistic (much like at 11.00pm on Tuesday night).
The NF is close to tipping point.
When the Left didn't withdraw (as they did in the NFs two best regions), we got results like
Bourgogne: Right (32.4 %), Left (35.4 %), NF (32.4 %) Val de Loire: Right (34.6 %), Left (35.4 %), NF (30 %).
These will tip next time, if France is in the same mess as it is now.
In any case, as Farage as shown, you don't have to win to get your own way.
The Presidential election is going to be run on the NF's territory, and the whole country will be inexorably dragged rightwards and Eurosceptic. The role of the Eu will be questioned as never before in France.
In fact the withdrawal of the Left's candidate in Hauts de France and Provence is just a very visible manifestation of what is happening. To stop the NF, more candidates will have to withdraw next time, and that just drags the whole country rightwards.
Personally I have a few quid on Sarkozy. Seems to a value bet here at the moment at 8. This will crash if he makes it through the primaries, which he may well not, but is a good campaigner and may be seen as more effective against the inevitable run-off with LePen as he is a fighter and will throw some red meat to french nationalists. Macron also is worth a couple of quid at 26, given that we are 2016 and weird things keep happening. He plans to run as a new party. As ever DYOR.
You will have to wait for my thread header unfortunately there's quite a bit of news at the moment, just hope Mike gets it in before next week
Good story in the ST saying scientists in Edinburgh have discovered a poverty gene in genetic variations which "explain 21% of the variation in social deprivation and 11% of the variation in household incomes." It is caused by single nucleotide polymorphisms or SNPs for short.
Colour me surprised.
A single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP, pronounced snip) is a DNA sequence variation occurring when a single nucleotide adenine (A), thymine (T), cytosine (C), or guanine (G]) in the genome (or other shared sequence) differs between members of a species or paired chromosomes in an individual.
The SNP are also a political party whose policies are very closely linked to the generation of poverty.
What odds for a Le Pen victory if there is another major terrorist incident between now and the elections next Spring?
There have been many terrorist incidents in France in the last 18 months, and Mme Le Pen's vote share has remained marooned at c. 30%.
30% is enough to win round 1, probably more given shy Le Pens, in round two she then goes hard for normally Socialist and Melenchon workers in declining industrial areas
Sure, she may well win round one, especially if the "establishment" vote is split between Macron, Juppe and AN Other.
But if Macron and Bayrou do not stand, I think Juppe is north of 35% in round one.
Btw, that poll you posted last week is still not up on the Kantor .
Most polls now have Juppe under 30%, even before Macron was included Juppe was often under 30%, with shy Le Pens Le Pen may well get around 35% in round one anyway. In round two she then goes hard for the normally left voting white working-class in industrial areas and the provincial lower middle-class and farmers and smallholders in rural areas. Juppe relies on middle-class graduates and minorities and big cities and wealthy suburbs, same as EU ref and U.S. election
What odds for a Le Pen victory if there is another major terrorist incident between now and the elections next Spring?
There have been many terrorist incidents in France in the last 18 months, and Mme Le Pen's vote share has remained marooned at c. 30%.
30% is enough to win round 1, probably more given shy Le Pens, in round two she then goes hard for normally Socialist and Melenchon workers in declining industrial areas
Sure, she may well win round one, especially if the "establishment" vote is split between Macron, Juppe and AN Other.
But if Macron and Bayrou do not stand, I think Juppe is north of 35% in round one.
Btw, that poll you posted last week is still not up on the Kantor .
Most polls now have Juppe under 30%, even before Macron was included Juppe was often under 30%,
I don't think there's been a poll since December 2015 where Juppé got under 30% without Macron standing. And it had Hollande on 22%...
What odds for a Le Pen victory if there is another major terrorist incident between now and the elections next Spring?
There have been many terrorist incidents in France in the last 18 months, and Mme Le Pen's vote share has remained marooned at c. 30%.
30% is enough to win round 1, probably more given shy Le Pens, in round two she then goes hard for normally Socialist and Melenchon workers in declining industrial areas
Sure, she may well win round one, especially if the "establishment" vote is split between Macron, Juppe and AN Other.
But if Macron and Bayrou do not stand, I think Juppe is north of 35% in round one.
Btw, that poll you posted last week is still not up on the Kantor .
Most polls now have Juppe under 30%, even before Macron was included Juppe was often under 30%, with shy Le Pens Le Pen may well get around 35% in round one anyway. In round two she then goes hard for the normally left voting white working-class in industrial areas and the provincial lower middle-class and farmers and smallholders in rural areas. Juppe relies on middle-class graduates and minorities and big cities and wealthy suburbs, same as EU ref and U.S. election
Find me one poll this year without Bayrou and Macron standing with Juppe below 30%.
Just one.
And I will give £100 to whatever charity you nominate,
Good story in the ST saying scientists in Edinburgh have discovered a poverty gene in genetic variations which "explain 21% of the variation in social deprivation and 11% of the variation in household incomes." It is caused by single nucleotide polymorphisms or SNPs for short.
Colour me surprised.
A single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP, pronounced snip) is a DNA sequence variation occurring when a single nucleotide adenine (A), thymine (T), cytosine (C), or guanine (G]) in the genome (or other shared sequence) differs between members of a species or paired chromosomes in an individual.
The SNP are also a political party whose policies are very closely linked to the generation of poverty.
Terrible the way we've wasted the 300 year legacy of careful fiscal stewardship that was handed to us in 2007.
What odds for a Le Pen victory if there is another major terrorist incident between now and the elections next Spring?
There have been many terrorist incidents in France in the last 18 months, and Mme Le Pen's vote share has remained marooned at c. 30%.
30% is enough to win round 1, probably more given shy Le Pens, in round two she then goes hard for normally Socialist and Melenchon workers in declining industrial areas
Sure, she may well win round one, especially if the "establishment" vote is split between Macron, Juppe and AN Other.
But if Macron and Bayrou do not stand, I think Juppe is north of 35% in round one.
Btw, that poll you posted last week is still not up on the Kantor .
Most polls now have Juppe under 30%, even before Macron was included Juppe was often under 30%, with shy Le Pens Le Pen may well get around 35% in round one anyway. In round two she then goes hard for the normally left voting white working-class in industrial areas and the provincial lower middle-class and farmers and smallholders in rural areas. Juppe relies on middle-class graduates and minorities and big cities and wealthy suburbs, same as EU ref and U.S. election
Find me one poll this year without Bayrou and Macron standing with Juppe below 30%.
Just one.
And I will give £100 to whatever charity you nominate,
What odds for a Le Pen victory if there is another major terrorist incident between now and the elections next Spring?
There have been many terrorist incidents in France in the last 18 months, and Mme Le Pen's vote share has remained marooned at c. 30%.
Poor old rcs1000, still relying on the polls.
Polls should pick up movement, even if they are wrong on magnitude. There has been no movement to Let Pen in the last two years.
Polls had Remain winning, polls had Hillary winning, as you discovered on election night last week calling an election based on polls at the moment is a risky business
What odds for a Le Pen victory if there is another major terrorist incident between now and the elections next Spring?
There have been many terrorist incidents in France in the last 18 months, and Mme Le Pen's vote share has remained marooned at c. 30%.
30% is enough to win round 1, probably more given shy Le Pens, in round two she then goes hard for normally Socialist and Melenchon workers in declining industrial areas
Sure, she may well win round one, especially if the "establishment" vote is split between Macron, Juppe and AN Other.
But if Macron and Bayrou do not stand, I think Juppe is north of 35% in round one.
Btw, that poll you posted last week is still not up on the Kantor .
Most polls now have Juppe under 30%, even before Macron was included Juppe was often under 30%, with shy Le Pens Le Pen may well get around 35% in round one anyway. In round two she then goes hard for the normally left voting white working-class in industrial areas and the provincial lower middle-class and farmers and smallholders in rural areas. Juppe relies on middle-class graduates and minorities and big cities and wealthy suburbs, same as EU ref and U.S. election
Find me one poll this year without Bayrou and Macron standing with Juppe below 30%.
Just one.
And I will give £100 to whatever charity you nominate,
Johnson Beharry VC is present at the Cenotaph march past, wearing his original medal which normally resides in Buckingham Palace.
Interesting – any idea why it resides at Buck House?
He said "safest place for it" in the interview. Judging by what else he said, he might consider it an honour.
Cheers Mr Rabbit. So at his request then, makes perfect sense and I’m sure he does regard it as an honour. Fine young man that one.
Sadly, the insurance costs of keeping it at home are probably astronomical - even as a secondary effect (not insure the VC itself, but the other household contents).
What odds for a Le Pen victory if there is another major terrorist incident between now and the elections next Spring?
There have been many terrorist incidents in France in the last 18 months, and Mme Le Pen's vote share has remained marooned at c. 30%.
30% is enough to win round 1, probably more given shy Le Pens, in round two she then goes hard for normally Socialist and Melenchon workers in declining industrial areas
Sure, she may well win round one, especially if the "establishment" vote is split between Macron, Juppe and AN Other.
But if Macron and Bayrou do not stand, I think Juppe is north of 35% in round one.
Btw, that poll you posted last week is still not up on the Kantor .
Most polls now have Juppe under 30%, even before Macron was included Juppe was often under 30%, with shy Le Pens Le Pen may well get around 35% in round one anyway. In round two she then goes hard for the normally left voting white working-class in industrial areas and the provincial lower middle-class and farmers and smallholders in rural areas. Juppe relies on middle-class graduates and minorities and big cities and wealthy suburbs, same as EU ref and U.S. election
Find me one poll this year without Bayrou and Macron standing with Juppe below 30%.
Just one.
And I will give £100 to whatever charity you nominate,
September's BVA for starters
That had Juppé on 38% 36% [38% is Montebourg not Hollande] if Macron didn't run!
What odds for a Le Pen victory if there is another major terrorist incident between now and the elections next Spring?
There have been many terrorist incidents in France in the last 18 months, and Mme Le Pen's vote share has remained marooned at c. 30%.
30% is enough to win round 1, probably more given shy Le Pens, in round two she then goes hard for normally Socialist and Melenchon workers in declining industrial areas
Sure, she may well win round one, especially if the "establishment" vote is split between Macron, Juppe and AN Other.
But if Macron and Bayrou do not stand, I think Juppe is north of 35% in round one.
Btw, that poll you posted last week is still not up on the Kantor .
Most polls now have Juppe under 30%, even before Macron was included Juppe was often under 30%, with shy Le Pens Le Pen may well get around 35% in round one anyway. In round two she then goes hard for the normally left voting white working-class in industrial areas and the provincial lower middle-class and farmers and smallholders in rural areas. Juppe relies on middle-class graduates and minorities and big cities and wealthy suburbs, same as EU ref and U.S. election
Find me one poll this year without Bayrou and Macron standing with Juppe below 30%.
Just one.
And I will give £100 to whatever charity you nominate,
September's BVA for starters
Had Juppe 36 Le Pen 30 on rcs criteria . These are the typical numbers for all the last polls ( all September )
Johnson Beharry VC is present at the Cenotaph march past, wearing his original medal which normally resides in Buckingham Palace.
Interesting – any idea why it resides at Buck House?
He said "safest place for it" in the interview. Judging by what else he said, he might consider it an honour.
Cheers Mr Rabbit. So at his request then, makes perfect sense and I’m sure he does regard it as an honour. Fine young man that one.
Sadly, the insurance costs of keeping it at home are probably astronomical - even as a secondary effect (not insure the VC itself, but the other household contents).
I just don't think your insurance value is going to cover it. The literal value of the medal must be insurable.
What odds for a Le Pen victory if there is another major terrorist incident between now and the elections next Spring?
There have been many terrorist incidents in France in the last 18 months, and Mme Le Pen's vote share has remained marooned at c. 30%.
Poor old rcs1000, still relying on the polls.
Polls should pick up movement, even if they are wrong on magnitude. There has been no movement to Let Pen in the last two years.
Polls had Remain winning, polls had Hillary winning, as you discovered on election night last week calling an election based on polls at the moment is a risky business
What is the largest amount that a serious poll has been out, in % terms? I can't recall a 10% - can anyone?
The poll issue is that the error bars are larger than previously thought, for elections that have potential to create unusual differential turnout.
What odds for a Le Pen victory if there is another major terrorist incident between now and the elections next Spring?
There have been many terrorist incidents in France in the last 18 months, and Mme Le Pen's vote share has remained marooned at c. 30%.
Poor old rcs1000, still relying on the polls.
Polls should pick up movement, even if they are wrong on magnitude. There has been no movement to Let Pen in the last two years.
Polls had Remain winning, polls had Hillary winning, as you discovered on election night last week calling an election based on polls at the moment is a risky business
What is the largest amount that a serious poll has been out, in % terms? I can't recall a 10% - can anyone?
The poll issue is that the error bars are larger than previously thought, for elections that have potential to create unusual differential turnout.
They were always bigger. The stated MoE is from a random sampling effect, it omits from consideration a number of potential biases.
Good story in the ST saying scientists in Edinburgh have discovered a poverty gene in genetic variations which "explain 21% of the variation in social deprivation and 11% of the variation in household incomes." It is caused by single nucleotide polymorphisms or SNPs for short.
Colour me surprised.
A single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP, pronounced snip) is a DNA sequence variation occurring when a single nucleotide adenine (A), thymine (T), cytosine (C), or guanine (G]) in the genome (or other shared sequence) differs between members of a species or paired chromosomes in an individual.
The SNP are also a political party whose policies are very closely linked to the generation of poverty.
Terrible the way we've wasted the 300 year legacy of careful fiscal stewardship that was handed to us in 2007.
The damage was done before then back in 2003. It just took a few years for people to work out how to abuse it...
Johnson Beharry VC is present at the Cenotaph march past, wearing his original medal which normally resides in Buckingham Palace.
Interesting – any idea why it resides at Buck House?
He said "safest place for it" in the interview. Judging by what else he said, he might consider it an honour.
Cheers Mr Rabbit. So at his request then, makes perfect sense and I’m sure he does regard it as an honour. Fine young man that one.
Sadly, the insurance costs of keeping it at home are probably astronomical - even as a secondary effect (not insure the VC itself, but the other household contents).
Odd to keep a VC at the palace, though, rather than on loan with (say) the Ashcroft collection at the Imperial War Museum.
Johnson Beharry VC is present at the Cenotaph march past, wearing his original medal which normally resides in Buckingham Palace.
Interesting – any idea why it resides at Buck House?
He said "safest place for it" in the interview. Judging by what else he said, he might consider it an honour.
Cheers Mr Rabbit. So at his request then, makes perfect sense and I’m sure he does regard it as an honour. Fine young man that one.
Sadly, the insurance costs of keeping it at home are probably astronomical - even as a secondary effect (not insure the VC itself, but the other household contents).
I just don't think your insurance value is going to cover it. The literal value of the medal must be insurable.
What I meant was the mere presence of the VC would massively increase the risk of theft from the house. So even if you didn't insure the VC...
Johnson Beharry VC is present at the Cenotaph march past, wearing his original medal which normally resides in Buckingham Palace.
Interesting – any idea why it resides at Buck House?
He said "safest place for it" in the interview. Judging by what else he said, he might consider it an honour.
Cheers Mr Rabbit. So at his request then, makes perfect sense and I’m sure he does regard it as an honour. Fine young man that one.
Sadly, the insurance costs of keeping it at home are probably astronomical - even as a secondary effect (not insure the VC itself, but the other household contents).
I just don't think your insurance value is going to cover it. The literal value of the medal must be insurable.
What I meant was the mere presence of the VC would massively increase the risk of theft from the house. So even if you didn't insure the VC...
My French is improving mightily. Google makes a has of who leads who, particularly (in journalistic style) candidates are referred to as the mayor of border, the former prime minister, and so forth.
What odds for a Le Pen victory if there is another major terrorist incident between now and the elections next Spring?
There have been many terrorist incidents in France in the last 18 months, and Mme Le Pen's vote share has remained marooned at c. 30%.
30% is enough to win round 1, probably more given shy Le Pens, in round two she then goes hard for normally Socialist and Melenchon workers in declining industrial areas
Sure, she may well win round one, especially if the "establishment" vote is split between Macron, Juppe and AN Other.
But if Macron and Bayrou do not stand, I think Juppe is north of 35% in round one.
Btw, that poll you posted last week is still not up on the Kantor .
Most polls now have Juppe under 30%, even before Macron was included Juppe was often under 30%, with shy Le Pens Le Pen may well get around 35% in round one anyway. In round two she then goes hard for the normally left voting white working-class in industrial areas and the provincial lower middle-class and farmers and smallholders in rural areas. Juppe relies on middle-class graduates and minorities and big cities and wealthy suburbs, same as EU ref and U.S. election
Find me one poll this year without Bayrou and Macron standing with Juppe below 30%.
Just one.
And I will give £100 to whatever charity you nominate,
September's BVA for starters
Had Juppe 36 Le Pen 30 on rcs criteria . These are the typical numbers for all the last polls ( all September )
The point is that polls this far out are no guide as to what will happen.
Here is an Austrian presidential election poll from January 2016 (Gallup, source wikipedia)
Hofer 8 % , van der Bellen 33 %
Result on 24 April 2016 (first round)
Hofer 35 % , van der Bellen 21 %
I would certainly not rule out Le Pen winning based on what the polls are saying now.
What odds for a Le Pen victory if there is another major terrorist incident between now and the elections next Spring?
There have been many terrorist incidents in France in the last 18 months, and Mme Le Pen's vote share has remained marooned at c. 30%.
30% is enough to win round 1, probably more given shy Le Pens, in round two she then goes hard for normally Socialist and Melenchon workers in declining industrial areas
Sure, she may well win round one, especially if the "establishment" vote is split between Macron, Juppe and AN Other.
But if Macron and Bayrou do not stand, I think Juppe is north of 35% in round one.
Btw, that poll you posted last week is still not up on the Kantor .
Most polls now have Juppe under 30%, even before Macron was included Juppe was often under 30%, with shy Le Pens Le Pen may well get around 35% in round one anyway. In round two she then goes hard for the normally left voting white working-class in industrial areas and the provincial lower middle-class and farmers and smallholders in rural areas. Juppe relies on middle-class graduates and minorities and big cities and wealthy suburbs, same as EU ref and U.S. election
Find me one poll this year without Bayrou and Macron standing with Juppe below 30%.
Just one.
And I will give £100 to whatever charity you nominate,
September's BVA for starters
Had Juppe 36 Le Pen 30 on rcs criteria . These are the typical numbers for all the last polls ( all September )
The point is that polls this far out are no guide as to what will happen.
Here is an Austrian presidential election poll from January 2016 (Gallup, source wikipedia)
Hofer 8 % , van der Bellen 33 %
Result on 24 April 2016 (first round)
Hofer 35 % , van der Bellen 21 %
I would certainly not rule out Le Pen winning based on what the polls are saying now.
More like Trump, on a Trump timetable. Capable of coming back from 10 points down in the run off but I sea change looks unlikely.
Before anyone shouts terrorism, it does not shift many votes.
The consequence is that this will continue until labour costs in both trading countries are similar. e.g. manual workers in the USA can only obtain jobs via corporate investment if they work for the same wages as those in China which, given the relative cost of living, is absolute poverty.
This isn't right. Once workers in China are able to produce as much as workers in Britain, they demand more money. They then spend this money buying more stuff, some of which is still made in Britain.
The overall upshot is that everybody gets rich, although there spots where people get temporarily poor, eg if your job is now being done more efficiently in China, your income will be depressed until you move to a different job that isn't.
What odds for a Le Pen victory if there is another major terrorist incident between now and the elections next Spring?
There have been many terrorist incidents in France in the last 18 months, and Mme Le Pen's vote share has remained marooned at c. 30%.
30% is enough to win round 1, probably more given shy Le Pens, in round two she then goes hard for normally Socialist and Melenchon workers in declining industrial areas
Sure, she may well win round one, especially if the "establishment" vote is split between Macron, Juppe and AN Other.
But if Macron and Bayrou do not stand, I think Juppe is north of 35% in round one.
Btw, that poll you posted last week is still not up on the Kantor .
Most polls now have Juppe under 30%, even before Macron was included Juppe was often under 30%, with shy Le Pens Le Pen may well get around 35% in round one anyway. In round two she then goes hard for the normally left voting white working-class in industrial areas and the provincial lower middle-class and farmers and smallholders in rural areas. Juppe relies on middle-class graduates and minorities and big cities and wealthy suburbs, same as EU ref and U.S. election
Find me one poll this year without Bayrou and Macron standing with Juppe below 30%.
Just one.
And I will give £100 to whatever charity you nominate,
September's BVA for starters
Had Juppe 36 Le Pen 30 on rcs criteria . These are the typical numbers for all the last polls ( all September )
The point is that polls this far out are no guide as to what will happen.
Here is an Austrian presidential election poll from January 2016 (Gallup, source wikipedia)
Hofer 8 % , van der Bellen 33 %
Result on 24 April 2016 (first round)
Hofer 35 % , van der Bellen 21 %
I would certainly not rule out Le Pen winning based on what the polls are saying now.
Sure, but last year in France the FN was polling at 30% for the first round of the Departmental elections and scored 22-23%.
Good story in the ST saying scientists in Edinburgh have discovered a poverty gene in genetic variations which "explain 21% of the variation in social deprivation and 11% of the variation in household incomes." It is caused by single nucleotide polymorphisms or SNPs for short.
Colour me surprised.
A single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP, pronounced snip) is a DNA sequence variation occurring when a single nucleotide adenine (A), thymine (T), cytosine (C), or guanine (G]) in the genome (or other shared sequence) differs between members of a species or paired chromosomes in an individual.
The SNP are also a political party whose policies are very closely linked to the generation of poverty.
Terrible the way we've wasted the 300 year legacy of careful fiscal stewardship that was handed to us in 2007.
The damage was done before then back in 2003. It just took a few years for people to work out how to abuse it...
I know I'm probably missing the bleeding obvious, but what happened in 2003?
What odds for a Le Pen victory if there is another major terrorist incident between now and the elections next Spring?
There have been many terrorist incidents in France in the last 18 months, and Mme Le Pen's vote share has remained marooned at c. 30%.
30% is enough to win round 1, probably more given shy Le Pens, in round two she then goes hard for normally Socialist and Melenchon workers in declining industrial areas
Sure, she may well win round one, especially if the "establishment" vote is split between Macron, Juppe and AN Other.
But if Macron and Bayrou do not stand, I think Juppe is north of 35% in round one.
Btw, that poll you posted last week is still not up on the Kantor .
Most polls now have Juppe under 30%, even before Macron was included Juppe was often under 30%, with shy Le Pens Le Pen may well get around 35% in round one anyway. In round two she then goes hard for the normally left voting white working-class in industrial areas and the provincial lower middle-class and farmers and smallholders in rural areas. Juppe relies on middle-class graduates and minorities and big cities and wealthy suburbs, same as EU ref and U.S. election
Find me one poll this year without Bayrou and Macron standing with Juppe below 30%.
Just one.
And I will give £100 to whatever charity you nominate,
September's BVA for starters
Had Juppe 36 Le Pen 30 on rcs criteria . These are the typical numbers for all the last polls ( all September )
The point is that polls this far out are no guide as to what will happen.
Here is an Austrian presidential election poll from January 2016 (Gallup, source wikipedia)
Hofer 8 % , van der Bellen 33 %
Result on 24 April 2016 (first round)
Hofer 35 % , van der Bellen 21 %
I would certainly not rule out Le Pen winning based on what the polls are saying now.
Sure, but last year in France the FN was polling at 30% for the first round of the Departmental elections and scored 22-23%.
2016 has been a crazy year (with Italy and Austria still to come).
The consequence is that this will continue until labour costs in both trading countries are similar. e.g. manual workers in the USA can only obtain jobs via corporate investment if they work for the same wages as those in China which, given the relative cost of living, is absolute poverty.
This isn't right. Once workers in China are able to produce as much as workers in Britain, they demand more money. They then spend this money buying more stuff, some of which is still made in Britain.
The overall upshot is that everybody gets rich, although there spots where people get temporarily poor, eg if your job is now being done more efficiently in China, your income will be depressed until you move to a different job that isn't.
It also ignores the societal productivity issue - if you multiply Chinese wages by chinese productivity the answer isn't a zillion miles away from UK wages multiplied by UK productivity in many, many industries.
Among other things, wages in China are zooming upwards, and the number of traditional (steel etc) industrial jobs is *falling*. This is because Chinese manufacturers are responding to higher wages with automation, to preserve their productivity cost ratio.
Leader of the UK's biggest group of MEPs at the European parliament.
He IS a UK opposition leader. He is just not THE UK opposition leader.
But the idea of "the opposition" is a peculiarly British concept, anyway, and doesn't make great sense here at home, except for the privileges they get by being recognised as such in Parliament. But a Corbyn as leader of "the opposition" clearly doesn't speak for or lead the SNP, LibDems, UKIP, Greens et al (leaving aside whether or not he is leading his own party). You can't blame foreign media for not knowing or not being bothered.
I have (in the world of software) seen multiple attempts to outsource/best shore/etc etc software development. Each time, the alleged savings failed to occur - because the number of people required to do the same work elsewhere was large enough to nearly eliminate the differential in cost.
If it takes 100 developers in India to do the job of 15 in the UK, the fact that it *costs* (not pay, cost) 4 times less to employ the Indians isn't going to help your bosses.
At this point some jerk always starts going on about racism - but if you take the same Indian developer and bring him to the UK on a long contract, his productivity rises to match the UK levels.
This same thing is true in many, many industries - when you multiply out the cost/productivity factors, the difference between onshore and offshore is not as dramatic as you might think. It is the kind of number that good management/structures can easily reverse.
In fact it is quite rational and to be expected - wages rising to match the value of the work.
Which is where we come to immigration. Bring people into the country, and they will become as productive as the locals - more rapidly than their demands for similar wages. Bring in {foreign cheap country} coders, fire them once they get ideas (like having a liveable wage), get some more.... and you can keep the wages down. And the locals out. What could possibly go wrong?
There are of course, industries where this doesn't happen - textiles are a good example. Low skill required by the workers, simple machinery to tend...
Word. Innit!
The mythical offshore team is a comfy-blankie and not a solution. The days of subcontinent software are surely numbered unless they can create first.
The consequence is that this will continue until labour costs in both trading countries are similar. e.g. manual workers in the USA can only obtain jobs via corporate investment if they work for the same wages as those in China which, given the relative cost of living, is absolute poverty.
This isn't right. Once workers in China are able to produce as much as workers in Britain, they demand more money. They then spend this money buying more stuff, some of which is still made in Britain.
The overall upshot is that everybody gets rich, although there spots where people get temporarily poor, eg if your job is now being done more efficiently in China, your income will be depressed until you move to a different job that isn't.
It also ignores the societal productivity issue - if you multiply Chinese wages by chinese productivity the answer isn't a zillion miles away from UK wages multiplied by UK productivity in many, many industries.
Among other things, wages in China are zooming upwards, and the number of traditional (steel etc) industrial jobs is *falling*. This is because Chinese manufacturers are responding to higher wages with automation, to preserve their productivity cost ratio.
Yup, I think this process is easier to understand if you imagine it in reverse. Instead of a bunch of subsistence-level poor people becoming productive participants in your economy, imagine a bunch of productive participants in your economy becoming subsistence-level poor people.
A zombie outbreak sweeps across southern England, and destroys all business and industry south of Grantham. Due to security problems and urgent foraging duties, not to mention the fences the north put up to keep the zombies out, the remaining workers in the south are no longer buying or selling anything they can trade with the north. Did workers in Newcastle just get richer?
It does seem that, unlike other recent shocks, the circumstances still do not favour them, but the problem will be if you say that others will draw equivalency with Trump and Brexit etc and say we are doing the same dismissing.
There is a huge difference, though. There were plenty of polls showing Brexit leading, and Donald Trump was scoring close to Hilary. (And, indeed she beat him in popular vote.)
Let Pen loses more than 2:1 to Juppe in every poll that has been taken.
This feels a little bit like saying "well, Mussolini won in Italy, and Hitler in Germany, therefore Moseley is certain to win here."
Le Pen will most probably not win, but nor would I be surprised if she did.
Juppe is a deeply dismal candidate who promises more of the same; Sarkozy might throw a strop if he loses the primary, and run as an independent, splitting the right wing vote, and leaving Le Pen facing a Socialist; further terrorist outrages might tip French public opinion over the edge. And, each win for an insurgent makes it easier to consider voting for an insurgent.
OK someone answer me this apart from the parties they are standing for what are the big differences between Sarkozy and Le Pen? Whether good or bad?
Le Pen is more anti-free trade, including the EU.
A very popular position to have these days.
I am not anti free trade - I am against companies gaming the market. Given the choice of my family, friends, neighbours or countrymen having a high standard of living or another country's residents having a better standard of living at our expense, I would definitely prefer the former.
If Ford wants to expand into the Mexican Market then they can invest in building, equipping and manning factories in Mexico - I have no problems with that. What I object to is Ford expanding into the American market at the cost of American jobs.
If I was a British firm looking to expand in the American market then, again, I would have no problems with creating jobs in America. I would have no problem with a British firm investing in Britain to produce the goods - there is a significant difference you see in ethics.
(You only need to look at the UK balance of trade to realise that we are impoverishing ourselves at an ever-faster rate.)
@Sean_F Yes each insurgent victory makes voting for an insurgent less scary. However each insurgent victory also provides more evidence of what insurgents are like in power. How will Brexit and the Trump Presidency look to the French by May ? We don't know but where insurgencies look on the success/failure scale is the big betting variable.
Good story in the ST saying scientists in Edinburgh have discovered a poverty gene in genetic variations which "explain 21% of the variation in social deprivation and 11% of the variation in household incomes." It is caused by single nucleotide polymorphisms or SNPs for short.
Colour me surprised.
A single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP, pronounced snip) is a DNA sequence variation occurring when a single nucleotide adenine (A), thymine (T), cytosine (C), or guanine (G]) in the genome (or other shared sequence) differs between members of a species or paired chromosomes in an individual.
The SNP are also a political party whose policies are very closely linked to the generation of poverty.
LOL, and you a Tory david, nearly as big a whopper as your heroine comes out with on regular basis. We all know who rules Scotland and causes teh poverty unfortunately. Question is why did teh turkeys vote for xmas in 2014, desperate to maintain their poverty. 300 years of Westminster has done us few favours.
Leader of the UK's biggest group of MEPs at the European parliament.
He IS a UK opposition leader. He is just not THE UK opposition leader.
But the idea of "the opposition" is a peculiarly British concept, anyway, and doesn't make great sense here at home, except for the privileges they get by being recognised as such in Parliament. But a Corbyn as leader of "the opposition" clearly doesn't speak for or lead the SNP, LibDems, UKIP, Greens et al (leaving aside whether or not he is leading his own party). You can't blame foreign media for not knowing or not being bothered.
It is great to see the Tories squirming , humiliated by Nigel as he nips off to discuss with "The Donald" how crap May and the Tories are. Will be magic when Trump insists he will deal with UK via Nigel.
This isn't right. Once workers in China are able to produce as much as workers in Britain, they demand more money. They then spend this money buying more stuff, some of which is still made in Britain.
The overall upshot is that everybody gets rich, although there spots where people get temporarily poor, eg if your job is now being done more efficiently in China, your income will be depressed until you move to a different job that isn't.
It also ignores the societal productivity issue - if you multiply Chinese wages by chinese productivity the answer isn't a zillion miles away from UK wages multiplied by UK productivity in many, many industries.
Among other things, wages in China are zooming upwards, and the number of traditional (steel etc) industrial jobs is *falling*. This is because Chinese manufacturers are responding to higher wages with automation, to preserve their productivity cost ratio.
Yup, I think this process is easier to understand if you imagine it in reverse. Instead of a bunch of subsistence-level poor people becoming productive participants in your economy, imagine a bunch of productive participants in your economy becoming subsistence-level poor people.
A zombie outbreak sweeps across southern England, and destroys all business and industry south of Grantham. Due to security problems and urgent foraging duties, not to mention the fences the north put up to keep the zombies out, the remaining workers in the south are no longer buying or selling anything they can trade with the north. Did workers in Newcastle just get richer?
The bit you are missing is what I mentioned below - mass immigration is an attempt to get round the societal productivity issue by importing the labour here. So you get people working at high end western european productivity levels for lower wages. Until they start to demand higher wages. And then import some more. The slight problem is that this rubs the WWC face in it:
- the jobs go to recent immigrants - it is barely worth getting the jobs, since they pay the same or less than benefits - you get lambasted for being lazy - you are told that your culture is shit - you are told the immigrants culture is inherently wonderful - you are told that getting rid of your culture is something to be aspired to, and is a work in progress - you are told that not enjoying all of the above makes you evil - the people who are telling you this benefit from the above, and don't live anywhere near the consequences of it.
Johnson Beharry VC is present at the Cenotaph march past, wearing his original medal which normally resides in Buckingham Palace.
Interesting – any idea why it resides at Buck House?
He said "safest place for it" in the interview. Judging by what else he said, he might consider it an honour.
Cheers Mr Rabbit. So at his request then, makes perfect sense and I’m sure he does regard it as an honour. Fine young man that one.
Sadly, the insurance costs of keeping it at home are probably astronomical - even as a secondary effect (not insure the VC itself, but the other household contents).
I just don't think your insurance value is going to cover it. The literal value of the medal must be insurable.
What I meant was the mere presence of the VC would massively increase the risk of theft from the house. So even if you didn't insure the VC...
Well people must know about the VC of course - insurance companies may insist on good security (mortice deadlocks and possibly a (monitored) security system)
I don't think I have ever heard of a house being raided specifically for a medal collection, it is usually happenstance when it happens.
The actual value of the VC is themonetary loss if it were stolen i.e. what you could have sold it for - the emotional cost is priceless of course.It would not cost an astronomical amount to insure it, no more than any other £50,000 item of jewellery but it is not a product that you would look to puchase through goconfusedmeerkat.noadvice.com.
It does seem that, unlike other recent shocks, the circumstances still do not favour them, but the problem will be if you say that others will draw equivalency with Trump and Brexit etc and say we are doing the same dismissing.
There is a huge difference, though. There were plenty of polls showing Brexit leading, and Donald Trump was scoring close to Hilary. (And, indeed she beat him in popular vote.)
Let Pen loses more than 2:1 to Juppe in every poll that has been taken.
This feels a little bit like saying "well, Mussolini won in Italy, and Hitler in Germany, therefore Moseley is certain to win here."
Le Pen will most probably not win, but nor would I be surprised if she did.
Juppe is a deeply dismal candidate who promises more of the same; Sarkozy might throw a strop if he loses the primary, and run as an independent, splitting the right wing vote, and leaving Le Pen facing a Socialist; further terrorist outrages might tip French public opinion over the edge. And, each win for an insurgent makes it easier to consider voting for an insurgent.
Sarkozy will not not walk out on the party he created.
His best hope is that his supporters are more motivated this week, and propel him to first place in the initial round of the LR primary next week. I think there's a good chance he'll manage that, but he's still very transfer unfriendly.
OK someone answer me this apart from the parties they are standing for what are the big differences between Sarkozy and Le Pen? Whether good or bad?
Le Pen is more anti-free trade, including the EU.
A very popular position to have these days.
I am not anti free trade - I am against companies gaming the market. Given the choice of my family, friends, neighbours or countrymen having a high standard of living or another country's residents having a better standard of living at our expense, I would definitely prefer the former.
If Ford wants to expand into the Mexican Market then they can invest in building, equipping and manning factories in Mexico - I have no problems with that. What I object to is Ford expanding into the American market at the cost of American jobs.
If I was a British firm looking to expand in the American market then, again, I would have no problems with creating jobs in America. I would have no problem with a British firm investing in Britain to produce the goods - there is a significant difference you see in ethics.
(You only need to look at the UK balance of trade to realise that we are impoverishing ourselves at an ever-faster rate.)
The great irony is that the US has actually increased the number of cars it makes since NAFTA was introduced in 1994. Far more jobs have moved to Tennessee and Alabama than to Mexico.
OK someone answer me this apart from the parties they are standing for what are the big differences between Sarkozy and Le Pen? Whether good or bad?
Le Pen is more anti-free trade, including the EU.
A very popular position to have these days.
I am not anti free trade - I am against companies gaming the market. Given the choice of my family, friends, neighbours or countrymen having a high standard of living or another country's residents having a better standard of living at our expense, I would definitely prefer the former.
If Ford wants to expand into the Mexican Market then they can invest in building, equipping and manning factories in Mexico - I have no problems with that. What I object to is Ford expanding into the American market at the cost of American jobs.
If I was a British firm looking to expand in the American market then, again, I would have no problems with creating jobs in America. I would have no problem with a British firm investing in Britain to produce the goods - there is a significant difference you see in ethics.
(You only need to look at the UK balance of trade to realise that we are impoverishing ourselves at an ever-faster rate.)
If you're against that then you're against free trade. People each doing things where they have a comparative advantage and selling the resulting goods to each other is the *entire point* of trade. This isn't gaming the market, it *is* the market.
OK someone answer me this apart from the parties they are standing for what are the big differences between Sarkozy and Le Pen? Whether good or bad?
Le Pen is more anti-free trade, including the EU.
A very popular position to have these days.
I am not anti free trade - I am against companies gaming the market. Given the choice of my family, friends, neighbours or countrymen having a high standard of living or another country's residents having a better standard of living at our expense, I would definitely prefer the former.
If Ford wants to expand into the Mexican Market then they can invest in building, equipping and manning factories in Mexico - I have no problems with that. What I object to is Ford expanding into the American market at the cost of American jobs.
If I was a British firm looking to expand in the American market then, again, I would have no problems with creating jobs in America. I would have no problem with a British firm investing in Britain to produce the goods - there is a significant difference you see in ethics.
(You only need to look at the UK balance of trade to realise that we are impoverishing ourselves at an ever-faster rate.)
The great irony is that the US has actually increased the number of cars it makes since NAFTA was introduced in 1994. Far more jobs have moved to Tennessee and Alabama than to Mexico.
Which was a combination of union bashing (non-union plants), lowered wages and moving plants to the industrial dead zones of the US. Not so much drect NAFTA effects as adaption to globalisation...
Johnson Beharry VC is present at the Cenotaph march past, wearing his original medal which normally resides in Buckingham Palace.
Interesting – any idea why it resides at Buck House?
He said "safest place for it" in the interview. Judging by what else he said, he might consider it an honour.
Cheers Mr Rabbit. So at his request then, makes perfect sense and I’m sure he does regard it as an honour. Fine young man that one.
Sadly, the insurance costs of keeping it at home are probably astronomical - even as a secondary effect (not insure the VC itself, but the other household contents).
I just don't think your insurance value is going to cover it. The literal value of the medal must be insurable.
What I meant was the mere presence of the VC would massively increase the risk of theft from the house. So even if you didn't insure the VC...
Well people must know about the VC of course - insurance companies may insist on good security (mortice deadlocks and possibly a (monitored) security system)
I don't think I have ever heard of a house being raided specifically for a medal collection, it is usually happenstance when it happens.
The actual value of the VC is themonetary loss if it were stolen i.e. what you could have sold it for - the emotional cost is priceless of course.It would not cost an astronomical amount to insure it, no more than any other £50,000 item of jewellery but it is not a product that you would look to puchase through goconfusedmeerkat.noadvice.com.
There seems to be a market for stolen VCs - it happens periodically.
What odds for a Le Pen victory if there is another major terrorist incident between now and the elections next Spring?
There have been many terrorist incidents in France in the last 18 months, and Mme Le Pen's vote share has remained marooned at c. 30%.
30% is enough to win round 1, probably more given shy Le Pens, in round two she then goes hard for normally Socialist and Melenchon workers in declining industrial areas
Sure, she may well win round one, especially if the "establishment" vote is split between Macron, Juppe and AN Other.
But if Macron and Bayrou do not stand, I think Juppe is north of 35% in round one.
Btw, that poll you posted last week is still not up on the Kantor .
Most polls now have Juppe under 30%, even before Macron was included Juppe was often under 30%, with shy Le Pens Le Pen may well get around 35% in round one anyway. In round two she then goes hard for the normally left voting white working-class in industrial areas and the provincial lower middle-class and farmers and smallholders in rural areas. Juppe relies on middle-class graduates and minorities and big cities and wealthy suburbs, same as EU ref and U.S. election
Find me one poll this year without Bayrou and Macron standing with Juppe below 30%.
Just one.
And I will give £100 to whatever charity you nominate,
What odds for a Le Pen victory if there is another major terrorist incident between now and the elections next Spring?
There have been many terrorist incidents in France in the last 18 months, and Mme Le Pen's vote share has remained marooned at c. 30%.
30% is enough to win round 1, probably more given shy Le Pens, in round two she then goes hard for normally Socialist and Melenchon workers in declining industrial areas
Sure, she may well win round one, especially if the "establishment" vote is split between Macron, Juppe and AN Other.
But if Macron and Bayrou do not stand, I think Juppe is north of 35% in round one.
Btw, that poll you posted last week is still not up on the Kantor .
Most polls now have Juppe under 30%, even before Macron was included Juppe was often under 30%, with shy Le Pens Le Pen may well get around 35% in round one anyway. In round two she then goes hard for the normally left voting white working-class in industrial areas and the provincial lower middle-class and farmers and smallholders in rural areas. Juppe relies on middle-class graduates and minorities and big cities and wealthy suburbs, same as EU ref and U.S. election
Find me one poll this year without Bayrou and Macron standing with Juppe below 30%.
Just one.
And I will give £100 to whatever charity you nominate,
Good story in the ST saying scientists in Edinburgh have discovered a poverty gene in genetic variations which "explain 21% of the variation in social deprivation and 11% of the variation in household incomes." It is caused by single nucleotide polymorphisms or SNPs for short.
Colour me surprised.
A single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP, pronounced snip) is a DNA sequence variation occurring when a single nucleotide adenine (A), thymine (T), cytosine (C), or guanine (G]) in the genome (or other shared sequence) differs between members of a species or paired chromosomes in an individual.
The SNP are also a political party whose policies are very closely linked to the generation of poverty.
Terrible the way we've wasted the 300 year legacy of careful fiscal stewardship that was handed to us in 2007.
Careful fiscal stewardship that was needed to repay the debts from the last time Scotland went bankrupt?
Leader of the UK's biggest group of MEPs at the European parliament.
He IS a UK opposition leader. He is just not THE UK opposition leader.
But the idea of "the opposition" is a peculiarly British concept, anyway, and doesn't make great sense here at home, except for the privileges they get by being recognised as such in Parliament. But a Corbyn as leader of "the opposition" clearly doesn't speak for or lead the SNP, LibDems, UKIP, Greens et al (leaving aside whether or not he is leading his own party). You can't blame foreign media for not knowing or not being bothered.
It is great to see the Tories squirming , humiliated by Nigel as he nips off to discuss with "The Donald" how crap May and the Tories are. Will be magic when Trump insists he will deal with UK via Nigel.
Is Nigel Farage the first foreign statesman to meet the President-elect?
What odds for a Le Pen victory if there is another major terrorist incident between now and the elections next Spring?
There have been many terrorist incidents in France in the last 18 months, and Mme Le Pen's vote share has remained marooned at c. 30%.
30% is enough to win round 1, probably more given shy Le Pens, in round two she then goes hard for normally Socialist and Melenchon workers in declining industrial areas
Sure, she may well win round one, especially if the "establishment" vote is split between Macron, Juppe and AN Other.
But if Macron and Bayrou do not stand, I think Juppe is north of 35% in round one.
Btw, that poll you posted last week is still not up on the Kantor .
Most polls now have Juppe under 30%, even before Macron was included Juppe was often under 30%, with shy Le Pens Le Pen may well get around 35% in round one anyway. In round two she then goes hard for the normally left voting white working-class in industrial areas and the provincial lower middle-class and farmers and smallholders in rural areas. Juppe relies on middle-class graduates and minorities and big cities and wealthy suburbs, same as EU ref and U.S. election
Find me one poll this year without Bayrou and Macron standing with Juppe below 30%.
Just one.
And I will give £100 to whatever charity you nominate,
OK someone answer me this apart from the parties they are standing for what are the big differences between Sarkozy and Le Pen? Whether good or bad?
Le Pen is more anti-free trade, including the EU.
A very popular position to have these days.
I am not anti free trade - I am against companies gaming the market. Given the choice of my family, friends, neighbours or countrymen having a high standard of living or another country's residents having a better standard of living at our expense, I would definitely prefer the former.
If Ford wants to expand into the Mexican Market then they can invest in building, equipping and manning factories in Mexico - I have no problems with that. What I object to is Ford expanding into the American market at the cost of American jobs.
If I was a British firm looking to expand in the American market then, again, I would have no problems with creating jobs in America. I would have no problem with a British firm investing in Britain to produce the goods - there is a significant difference you see in ethics.
(You only need to look at the UK balance of trade to realise that we are impoverishing ourselves at an ever-faster rate.)
The great irony is that the US has actually increased the number of cars it makes since NAFTA was introduced in 1994. Far more jobs have moved to Tennessee and Alabama than to Mexico.
I think the announcement by Ford to move it's small car production to Mexico did tilt Michigan.
OK someone answer me this apart from the parties they are standing for what are the big differences between Sarkozy and Le Pen? Whether good or bad?
Le Pen is more anti-free trade, including the EU.
A very popular position to have these days.
I am not anti free trade - I am against companies gaming the market. Given the choice of my family, friends, neighbours or countrymen having a high standard of living or another country's residents having a better standard of living at our expense, I would definitely prefer the former.
If Ford wants to expand into the Mexican Market then they can invest in building, equipping and manning factories in Mexico - I have no problems with that. What I object to is Ford expanding into the American market at the cost of American jobs.
If I was a British firm looking to expand in the American market then, again, I would have no problems with creating jobs in America. I would have no problem with a British firm investing in Britain to produce the goods - there is a significant difference you see in ethics.
(You only need to look at the UK balance of trade to realise that we are impoverishing ourselves at an ever-faster rate.)
The great irony is that the US has actually increased the number of cars it makes since NAFTA was introduced in 1994. Far more jobs have moved to Tennessee and Alabama than to Mexico.
Which was a combination of union bashing (non-union plants), lowered wages and moving plants to the industrial dead zones of the US. Not so much drect NAFTA effects as adaption to globalisation...
The other issue is that plants have become much more automated, and require far less semi skilled labour. Fort Dearborn used to employ 130,000 people. It now make more trucks with 4,000.
What odds for a Le Pen victory if there is another major terrorist incident between now and the elections next Spring?
There have been many terrorist incidents in France in the last 18 months, and Mme Le Pen's vote share has remained marooned at c. 30%.
30% is enough to win round 1, probably more given shy Le Pens, in round two she then goes hard for normally Socialist and Melenchon workers in declining industrial areas
Sure, she may well win round one, especially if the "establishment" vote is split between Macron, Juppe and AN Other.
But if Macron and Bayrou do not stand, I think Juppe is north of 35% in round one.
Btw, that poll you posted last week is still not up on the Kantor .
Most polls now have Juppe under 30%, even before Macron was included Juppe was often under 30%, with shy Le Pens Le Pen may well get around 35% in round one anyway. In round two she then goes hard for the normally left voting white working-class in industrial areas and the provincial lower middle-class and farmers and smallholders in rural areas. Juppe relies on middle-class graduates and minorities and big cities and wealthy suburbs, same as EU ref and U.S. election
Find me one poll this year without Bayrou and Macron standing with Juppe below 30%.
Just one.
And I will give £100 to whatever charity you nominate,
OK someone answer me this apart from the parties they are standing for what are the big differences between Sarkozy and Le Pen? Whether good or bad?
Le Pen is more anti-free trade, including the EU.
A very popular position to have these days.
I am not anti free trade - I am against companies gaming the market. Given the choice of my family, friends, neighbours or countrymen having a high standard of living or another country's residents having a better standard of living at our expense, I would definitely prefer the former.
If Ford wants to expand into the Mexican Market then they can invest in building, equipping and manning factories in Mexico - I have no problems with that. What I object to is Ford expanding into the American market at the cost of American jobs.
If I was a British firm looking to expand in the American market then, again, I would have no problems with creating jobs in America. I would have no problem with a British firm investing in Britain to produce the goods - there is a significant difference you see in ethics.
(You only need to look at the UK balance of trade to realise that we are impoverishing ourselves at an ever-faster rate.)
If you're against that then you're against free trade. People each doing things where they have a comparative advantage and selling the resulting goods to each other is the *entire point* of trade. This isn't gaming the market, it *is* the market.
Anti-globalisation forces - UKIP, SNP, FN and Trump - almost never understand markets. This includes many high-powered contributors on PB who have never had to SELL anything to fund their very substantial incomes. The idea that you earn what you sell and it's who is buying that matters, not who sells, is something that has never crossed their minds.
Leader of the UK's biggest group of MEPs at the European parliament.
He IS a UK opposition leader. He is just not THE UK opposition leader.
But the idea of "the opposition" is a peculiarly British concept, anyway, and doesn't make great sense here at home, except for the privileges they get by being recognised as such in Parliament. But a Corbyn as leader of "the opposition" clearly doesn't speak for or lead the SNP, LibDems, UKIP, Greens et al (leaving aside whether or not he is leading his own party). You can't blame foreign media for not knowing or not being bothered.
It is great to see the Tories squirming , humiliated by Nigel as he nips off to discuss with "The Donald" how crap May and the Tories are. Will be magic when Trump insists he will deal with UK via Nigel.
Is Nigel Farage the first foreign statesman to meet the President-elect?
Seems a fitting reward as he was the only who bothered to go over and tell Trumps supporters (and of course the people watching) not to vote for Clinton.
Good story in the ST saying scientists in Edinburgh have discovered a poverty gene in genetic variations which "explain 21% of the variation in social deprivation and 11% of the variation in household incomes." It is caused by single nucleotide polymorphisms or SNPs for short.
Colour me surprised.
A single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP, pronounced snip) is a DNA sequence variation occurring when a single nucleotide adenine (A), thymine (T), cytosine (C), or guanine (G]) in the genome (or other shared sequence) differs between members of a species or paired chromosomes in an individual.
The SNP are also a political party whose policies are very closely linked to the generation of poverty.
Terrible the way we've wasted the 300 year legacy of careful fiscal stewardship that was handed to us in 2007.
Careful fiscal stewardship that was needed to repay the debts from the last time Scotland went bankrupt?
You halfwit , they used Scotland's cash for the deal to pay England's debts at that time. Good amount of it will be in your family no doubt.
Comments
Just one.
And I will give £100 to whatever charity you nominate,
http://www.ipsos.fr/sites/default/files/doc_associe/rapport_ipsos_cevipof_le_monde_-_eef2017_vague_6_septembre_2016.pdf
The poll issue is that the error bars are larger than previously thought, for elections that have potential to create unusual differential turnout.
That's what I priced him at straight after the heathrow decision when he was trading at ~evens.
The LD's winning this is about as likely as Trump, or Brexit - ie, not likely but not impossible.
Current odds look about right to me. Sold Zac at 50%, bought him back at 25%. Now I'm out of the market.
Good luck to those punting on the result.
http://www.electograph.com/search/label/France
Here is an Austrian presidential election poll from January 2016 (Gallup, source wikipedia)
Hofer 8 % , van der Bellen 33 %
Result on 24 April 2016 (first round)
Hofer 35 % , van der Bellen 21 %
I would certainly not rule out Le Pen winning based on what the polls are saying now.
Before anyone shouts terrorism, it does not shift many votes.
Le Pen beats Hollande
Hollande beats Sarkozy
Sarkozy beats Le Pen
French politics has gone full rock-paper-scissors
The overall upshot is that everybody gets rich, although there spots where people get temporarily poor, eg if your job is now being done more efficiently in China, your income will be depressed until you move to a different job that isn't.
Who would rule out 2017 being as crazy?
Among other things, wages in China are zooming upwards, and the number of traditional (steel etc) industrial jobs is *falling*. This is because Chinese manufacturers are responding to higher wages with automation, to preserve their productivity cost ratio.
http://tinyurl.com/zo5wgqs
But the idea of "the opposition" is a peculiarly British concept, anyway, and doesn't make great sense here at home, except for the privileges they get by being recognised as such in Parliament. But a Corbyn as leader of "the opposition" clearly doesn't speak for or lead the SNP, LibDems, UKIP, Greens et al (leaving aside whether or not he is leading his own party). You can't blame foreign media for not knowing or not being bothered.
The mythical offshore team is a comfy-blankie and not a solution. The days of subcontinent software are surely numbered unless they can create first.
A zombie outbreak sweeps across southern England, and destroys all business and industry south of Grantham. Due to security problems and urgent foraging duties, not to mention the fences the north put up to keep the zombies out, the remaining workers in the south are no longer buying or selling anything they can trade with the north. Did workers in Newcastle just get richer?
Did gyre and gimble in the wabe:
Juppe is a deeply dismal candidate who promises more of the same; Sarkozy might throw a strop if he loses the primary, and run as an independent, splitting the right wing vote, and leaving Le Pen facing a Socialist; further terrorist outrages might tip French public opinion over the edge. And, each win for an insurgent makes it easier to consider voting for an insurgent.
If Ford wants to expand into the Mexican Market then they can invest in building, equipping and manning factories in Mexico - I have no problems with that. What I object to is Ford expanding into the American market at the cost of American jobs.
If I was a British firm looking to expand in the American market then, again, I would have no problems with creating jobs in America. I would have no problem with a British firm investing in Britain to produce the goods - there is a significant difference you see in ethics.
(You only need to look at the UK balance of trade to realise that we are impoverishing ourselves at an ever-faster rate.)
- the jobs go to recent immigrants
- it is barely worth getting the jobs, since they pay the same or less than benefits
- you get lambasted for being lazy
- you are told that your culture is shit
- you are told the immigrants culture is inherently wonderful
- you are told that getting rid of your culture is something to be aspired to, and is a work in progress
- you are told that not enjoying all of the above makes you evil
- the people who are telling you this benefit from the above, and don't live anywhere near the consequences of it.
I don't think I have ever heard of a house being raided specifically for a medal collection, it is usually happenstance when it happens.
The actual value of the VC is themonetary loss if it were stolen i.e. what you could have sold it for - the emotional cost is priceless of course.It would not cost an astronomical amount to insure it, no more than any other £50,000 item of jewellery but it is not a product that you would look to puchase through goconfusedmeerkat.noadvice.com.
His best hope is that his supporters are more motivated this week, and propel him to first place in the initial round of the LR primary next week. I think there's a good chance he'll manage that, but he's still very transfer unfriendly.
F1: humbug. The weather forecast appears to have changed, to rain.
I can't write an alternate pre-race piece, but if it does rain a lot, consider Verstappen, Hulkenberg and Button. Maybe Red Bull to top score.
For comedy value, my pre-race piece is here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/11/brazil-pre-race-2016.html
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/11/louise-mensch-adds-another-twitter-gaffe-list/
http://www.victoriacross.org.uk/aastolen.htm
http://harris-interactive.fr/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2016/04/Rapport-Harris-Le-regard-des-Français-sur-lavenir-politique-de-Nicolas-Hulot-We-Demain.pdf
https://twitter.com/AP/status/797788212236353540
Send me your preferred charity and I'll send through.
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