politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theresa May’s majority reduced even further as another CON MP
Comments
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Newton was a genius, but he was also a massive ass. His treatment of Hooke was disgraceful.CD13 said:Mr Tyson,
Isaac Newton. Arguably the greatest scientist who ever lived (and as mad as a hatter).
Tennyson.0 -
Do we know if Mr Phillips will run as an independent?0
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National Tracker - Langer Research/ABC - Sample 1,151 - 30 Oct - 2 Nov
Clinton 47 .. Trump 44
Note - 75% white sample is approx +6-7 points
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/hint-momentum-clinton-issues-defining-factor-poll/story?id=432811520 -
He does come over as being a bit precious.MaxPB said:
I think he's probably a secret remainer and isn't pleased with the way Brexit is proceeding. He also has a pretty decent second job so walking away isn't a big deal. It's an easy Con hold.MarqueeMark said:This just seems a bit weird. More to this than meets the eye?
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More accurately, they are regaining the ground they lost. Scottish Tories now no longer have to fear Labour, so can go back to voting Tory.nunu said:
Wow, Tories finally developing a real base in rural north east and south Scotland now, as Labour lose one. Go Ruth!Scott_P said:Meanwhile, Scottish Tory Surge KLAXON!
https://twitter.com/bbcphilipsim/status/794503277262110720
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"On the face of it this could be a great chance for UKIP." OGH
Only if they elect a leader very soon and get themselves in order, otherwise they will be at the bottom of the well.
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Mr. Jessop, aye, I have vague knowledge of that and he does come across as being vindictive.0
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Yes, time to get a new mandate and spell out what Brexit means. This idea of not showing the negotiating hand is a bit silly because we've already shown it. We want restrictions on migration, tariff free goods access and passporting for financial services as the minimum. If the EU doesn't already know that then they are stupider than they seem.Casino_Royale said:A General Election needs to be held.
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Mr Jessop,
"Newton was a genius, but he was also a massive ass. His treatment of Hooke was disgraceful."
You can't say that nowadays. The correct phrase is that he had mental health issues.0 -
Even though he was from just down the road from me I also think he was pretty dishonest and stole a lot from LeibnizJosiasJessop said:
Newton was a genius, but he was also a massive ass. His treatment of Hooke was disgraceful.CD13 said:Mr Tyson,
Isaac Newton. Arguably the greatest scientist who ever lived (and as mad as a hatter).
Tennyson.0 -
The Tories are losing a half-hearted MP, more interested in his profession than his constituents.TheScreamingEagles said:This is bad news for those who don't want a Hard Brexit.
The Tory Party and Parliament is losing a pro Single market not obsessed by immigration Leaver.0 -
Indeed. (*) On the other hand, a robust campaign, even if it results in a loss, could really be a positive way for UKIP's new leader to get into the public's consciousness.MikeK said:"On the face of it this could be a great chance for UKIP." OGH
Only if they elect a leader very soon and get themselves in order, otherwise they will be at the bottom of the well.
(*) Sorry.0 -
We know what we want, what we don't know is what a May Government is prepared to compromise on, that's the real issue. The EU will not give us all those things you listed and if they give us any of them what will they want in return that May will agree to?MaxPB said:
Yes, time to get a new mandate and spell out what Brexit means. This idea of not showing the negotiating hand is a bit silly because we've already shown it. We want restrictions on migration, tariff free goods access and passporting for financial services as the minimum. If the EU doesn't already know that then they are stupider than they seem.Casino_Royale said:A General Election needs to be held.
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The "Des Moines Register" reports on early voting in Iowa - Dems up but not yet at 2012 levels in a state where demographics should assist Trump :
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2016/11/03/can-iowa-dems-early-vote-lead-withstand-republicans-election-day-surge/93231614/?hootPostID=791eb6abbacb365f763f825d11cccc0f0 -
Labour's position has to be this:
1. We will respect the decision to leave the European Union
2. We therefore need to negotiate the best deal for Britain outside the EU
3. That deal is to become a member of the EFTA - access to the single market, freedom to conduct our own trade deals, freedom from CAP and CFP
The only stumbling block is free movement. But as we will have an open border with the EU in Ireland, that's never going to have an easy fix anyway.
If we campaign to stay in, we will be obliterated. And apparently saying that makes me racist...0 -
As an aside, Hz should really be Ts. It was Tesla who discovered varying the modulation of frequency, Hertz just used a single frequency, I believe.
Edited extra bit: 'discovered' meaning he did so for scientific effect. I have forgotten what the effect was, but then, me knowing anything at all about something that happened in the last 150 years is unusual.0 -
BBC says the US election polls tighten. Translation: Trump is now ahead.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-378682090 -
It doesn't need to be spelled out now though, just having the PM saying that this is what we want in an election will be enough for now. The compromises will come in the negotiation.pinkrose said:
We know what we want, what we don't know is what a May Government is prepared to compromise on, that's the real issue. The EU will not give us all those things you listed and if they give us any of them what will they want in return that May will agree to?MaxPB said:
Yes, time to get a new mandate and spell out what Brexit means. This idea of not showing the negotiating hand is a bit silly because we've already shown it. We want restrictions on migration, tariff free goods access and passporting for financial services as the minimum. If the EU doesn't already know that then they are stupider than they seem.Casino_Royale said:A General Election needs to be held.
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As a leaver I am surprised that Theresa's attitude is as follows:
I'm going to use Crown prerogative to invoke Article 50 - thus p*ssing off Parliament
Then I'm doing negotations with no running commentary - thus p*ssing off Parliament
Then I'll announce the Brexit deal that I negotiated.
Then I'll introduce a Great Repeal Bill and expect it to pass Parliament easily!
Perhaps the cunning plan is to get the Supreme Court to back the High Court.
Then GE2017 to get her own mandate.
Then get Parliament to vote on Article 50 knowing that Parliament has to vote on the Great Repeal Bill.
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I see a lot of commonality between Newton and Telford. Both were absolute geniuses who deserved their place in history. But both took credit for discoveries and feats that were not necessarily their own. And both did it by controlling the history that was written about them, and especially the official records.Richard_Tyndall said:
Even though he was from just down the road from me I also think he was pretty dishonest and stole a lot from LeibnizJosiasJessop said:
Newton was a genius, but he was also a massive ass. His treatment of Hooke was disgraceful.CD13 said:Mr Tyson,
Isaac Newton. Arguably the greatest scientist who ever lived (and as mad as a hatter).
Tennyson.0 -
Less of a stumbling block and more of a brick wall...RochdalePioneers said:Labour's position has to be this:
1. We will respect the decision to leave the European Union
2. We therefore need to negotiate the best deal for Britain outside the EU
3. That deal is to become a member of the EFTA - access to the single market, freedom to conduct our own trade deals, freedom from CAP and CFP
The only stumbling block is free movement. But as we will have an open border with the EU in Ireland, that's never going to have an easy fix anyway.
If we campaign to stay in, we will be obliterated. And apparently saying that makes me racist...0 -
Since I am probably the only person on here who will actually have a vote in this one my view is clear. It will be the pro Brexit Tory.Scott_P said:Who do leavers vote for in a straight fight between a pro-Brexit Tory and UKIP?
Remember they had a pro-Brexit Tory, who just resigned...
I have actually long been planning a thread header on whether or not there is any point to UKIP at all now we have voted to leave. It will perhaps have to wait now until we see what happens with Article 50 but I still wouldn't consider voting for UKIP unless the Tories put up someone who is anti-Brexit.0 -
Trump is not ahead where he needs to be ahead. Of course that could change, or the polls could be wrong, but on current polling he is behind.MikeK said:BBC says the US election polls tighten. Translation: Trump is now ahead.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-378682090 -
Trouble is that free movement was the number one issue. CAP, CFP were a very small part of it all.RochdalePioneers said:Labour's position has to be this:
1. We will respect the decision to leave the European Union
2. We therefore need to negotiate the best deal for Britain outside the EU
3. That deal is to become a member of the EFTA - access to the single market, freedom to conduct our own trade deals, freedom from CAP and CFP
The only stumbling block is free movement. But as we will have an open border with the EU in Ireland, that's never going to have an easy fix anyway.
If we campaign to stay in, we will be obliterated. And apparently saying that makes me racist...0 -
On Aberdeenshire: am I right in thinking these are single-member by-elections in STV multi-member wards?
In other words, a party can get 25% of the vote at the multi-member election, and that might be enough to win (say) one of four seats. But if that seat is subsequently resigned, and the same party gets 25% at the subsequent by-election, they will have "lost" the seat... until the next full council election.
I may have misunderstood. But if this is the case it's not yet overwhelming evidence for a surge.0 -
and a poacher.Richard_Tyndall said:
Isaac NewtonSean_Fear said:
Margaret Thatcher.tyson said:
He could get lost as he wanders away from Islington to places he didn't even know existed....like Lincolnshire for instance.Tissue_Price said:
(a) Yes (b) How?MarkHopkins said:
General Election. TMay can get clear mandate for A50. Labour can get rid of Corbyn.
BTW....can someone please tell me if Lincolnshire has produced anyone of any note in the whole history of our great nation?
Tennyson
John Wesley0 -
Free movement is something of a red herring. It's freedom to settle, gain benefits and apply for work that is the objection of many. Those are not really border control questions.Tissue_Price said:
Less of a stumbling block and more of a brick wall...RochdalePioneers said:Labour's position has to be this:
1. We will respect the decision to leave the European Union
2. We therefore need to negotiate the best deal for Britain outside the EU
3. That deal is to become a member of the EFTA - access to the single market, freedom to conduct our own trade deals, freedom from CAP and CFP
The only stumbling block is free movement. But as we will have an open border with the EU in Ireland, that's never going to have an easy fix anyway.
If we campaign to stay in, we will be obliterated. And apparently saying that makes me racist...0 -
A lot more than just one :-)Recidivist said:
and a poacher.Richard_Tyndall said:
Isaac NewtonSean_Fear said:
Margaret Thatcher.tyson said:
He could get lost as he wanders away from Islington to places he didn't even know existed....like Lincolnshire for instance.Tissue_Price said:
(a) Yes (b) How?MarkHopkins said:
General Election. TMay can get clear mandate for A50. Labour can get rid of Corbyn.
BTW....can someone please tell me if Lincolnshire has produced anyone of any note in the whole history of our great nation?
Tennyson
John Wesley0 -
"History will be kind to me for I intend to write it." - Sir Winston ChurchillJosiasJessop said:
I see a lot of commonality between Newton and Telford. Both were absolute geniuses who deserved their place in history. But both took credit for discoveries and feats that were not necessarily their own. And both did it by controlling the history that was written about them, and especially the official records.Richard_Tyndall said:
Even though he was from just down the road from me I also think he was pretty dishonest and stole a lot from LeibnizJosiasJessop said:
Newton was a genius, but he was also a massive ass. His treatment of Hooke was disgraceful.CD13 said:Mr Tyson,
Isaac Newton. Arguably the greatest scientist who ever lived (and as mad as a hatter).
Tennyson.0 -
Labour's position is hamstrung by the fact that the leader and the shadow chancellor want as hard a Brexit as possible because they believe that the consequences of this will inflame the passion of the proletariat and hasten the arrival of true socialism. For the same reason, that's why they want Trump to win. They believe that will inflame anti-American feeling over here (probably right about that one).RochdalePioneers said:Labour's position has to be this:
1. We will respect the decision to leave the European Union
2. We therefore need to negotiate the best deal for Britain outside the EU
3. That deal is to become a member of the EFTA - access to the single market, freedom to conduct our own trade deals, freedom from CAP and CFP
The only stumbling block is free movement. But as we will have an open border with the EU in Ireland, that's never going to have an easy fix anyway.
If we campaign to stay in, we will be obliterated. And apparently saying that makes me racist...
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The EU27 may comment on what we are discussing with them (our opening proposals), they won't be commenting on our bottom line since we won't have told them what that is.TOPPING said:
Exactly how long after the first meeting of the negotiations do you imagine each party's position will remain unclear?Essexit said:FPT:
Still the possibility of forcing May to reveal her full negotiating position or a second referendum clause (both of which would result in a worse deal).TheScreamingEagles said:
The Leader of the Labour Peers has said they will not block Brexit.Essexit said:
The issue isn't getting Article 50 through the Commons. It'sTheScreamingEagles said:Where are those PBers who assured me that Theresa May had a rock solid majority in Parliament because of the DUP, Sinn Fein Abstentions etc
a) Not being amended to death in the Commons
b) The Lords
The EU27 haven't said there will be no running commentary.
What some Remainers seem to want is akin to playing poker but revealing what cards you have in advance. Whereas the EU27 under negotiations would be equivalent to knowing what we've bet but not if we'll fold if they raise the odds.0 -
I know. But no free movement = WTO deals with Yerp which will take eons to negotiate. By which time we'll have little industry left that needs such a deal.FrankBooth said:
Trouble is that free movement was the number one issue. CAP, CFP were a very small part of it all.RochdalePioneers said:Labour's position has to be this:
1. We will respect the decision to leave the European Union
2. We therefore need to negotiate the best deal for Britain outside the EU
3. That deal is to become a member of the EFTA - access to the single market, freedom to conduct our own trade deals, freedom from CAP and CFP
The only stumbling block is free movement. But as we will have an open border with the EU in Ireland, that's never going to have an easy fix anyway.
If we campaign to stay in, we will be obliterated. And apparently saying that makes me racist...0 -
But to be fair to Churchill, he was a historian by profession.AlastairMeeks said:
"History will be kind to me for I intend to write it." - Sir Winston ChurchillJosiasJessop said:
I see a lot of commonality between Newton and Telford. Both were absolute geniuses who deserved their place in history. But both took credit for discoveries and feats that were not necessarily their own. And both did it by controlling the history that was written about them, and especially the official records.Richard_Tyndall said:
Even though he was from just down the road from me I also think he was pretty dishonest and stole a lot from LeibnizJosiasJessop said:
Newton was a genius, but he was also a massive ass. His treatment of Hooke was disgraceful.CD13 said:Mr Tyson,
Isaac Newton. Arguably the greatest scientist who ever lived (and as mad as a hatter).
Tennyson.0 -
I think "he had character flaws" would be more accurate.CD13 said:Mr Jessop,
"Newton was a genius, but he was also a massive ass. His treatment of Hooke was disgraceful."
You can't say that nowadays. The correct phrase is that he had mental health issues.0 -
PPP - Ohio might the closest contest with only 1% between the candidates :
https://twitter.com/ppppolls0 -
I want border controls to prevent people who want to live and work AND who have criminal convictions e.g. rapists, murderers etc.david_herdson said:
Free movement is something of a red herring. It's freedom to settle, gain benefits and apply for work that is the objection of many. Those are not really border control questions.Tissue_Price said:
Less of a stumbling block and more of a brick wall...RochdalePioneers said:Labour's position has to be this:
1. We will respect the decision to leave the European Union
2. We therefore need to negotiate the best deal for Britain outside the EU
3. That deal is to become a member of the EFTA - access to the single market, freedom to conduct our own trade deals, freedom from CAP and CFP
The only stumbling block is free movement. But as we will have an open border with the EU in Ireland, that's never going to have an easy fix anyway.
If we campaign to stay in, we will be obliterated. And apparently saying that makes me racist...
I once saw a border control programme showing the Canadian border control refusing entry to a US citizen because he had a conviction for an offence that the equivalent offence in Canada rendered him ineligible for entry.0 -
It would be more accurate to say that he was a writer by profession, though I don't think he had any formal training there either. To the extent that he had any trained profession, it would be soldiery.TonyE said:
But to be fair to Churchill, he was a historian by profession.AlastairMeeks said:
"History will be kind to me for I intend to write it." - Sir Winston ChurchillJosiasJessop said:
I see a lot of commonality between Newton and Telford. Both were absolute geniuses who deserved their place in history. But both took credit for discoveries and feats that were not necessarily their own. And both did it by controlling the history that was written about them, and especially the official records.Richard_Tyndall said:
Even though he was from just down the road from me I also think he was pretty dishonest and stole a lot from LeibnizJosiasJessop said:
Newton was a genius, but he was also a massive ass. His treatment of Hooke was disgraceful.CD13 said:Mr Tyson,
Isaac Newton. Arguably the greatest scientist who ever lived (and as mad as a hatter).
Tennyson.0 -
Yes, he does look like a part timer.MikeK said:
The Tories are losing a half-hearted MP, more interested in his profession than his constituents.TheScreamingEagles said:This is bad news for those who don't want a Hard Brexit.
The Tory Party and Parliament is losing a pro Single market not obsessed by immigration Leaver.
"He attracted criticism from some for spending around 1,700 hours annually working as a barrister whilst serving as an MP. Phillips described his own parliamentary attendance record as "excellent", asserting his outside work "doesn’t affect the way in which I perform as an MP", and accused his critics of "envy" over his yearly £750,000 second job earnings.[9]"
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Labour hasn't got a position on anything whilst it's got an idiot in charge whose sole priority is keeping control of the leadership....oh and hoping for a socialist uprising to happen by chance in the interim....RochdalePioneers said:Labour's position has to be this:
1. We will respect the decision to leave the European Union
2. We therefore need to negotiate the best deal for Britain outside the EU
3. That deal is to become a member of the EFTA - access to the single market, freedom to conduct our own trade deals, freedom from CAP and CFP
The only stumbling block is free movement. But as we will have an open border with the EU in Ireland, that's never going to have an easy fix anyway.
If we campaign to stay in, we will be obliterated. And apparently saying that makes me racist...
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The explanation that would make sense of this would be if she didn't actually want to do any of this stupid shit and is hoping somebody will throw a spanner in the works.LibDem_Colin said:As a leaver I am surprised that Theresa's attitude is as follows:
I'm going to use Crown prerogative to invoke Article 50 - thus p*ssing off Parliament
Then I'm doing negotations with no running commentary - thus p*ssing off Parliament
Then I'll announce the Brexit deal that I negotiated.
Then I'll introduce a Great Repeal Bill and expect it to pass Parliament easily!
Perhaps the cunning plan is to get the Supreme Court to back the High Court.
Then GE2017 to get her own mandate.
Then get Parliament to vote on Article 50 knowing that Parliament has to vote on the Great Repeal Bill.0 -
OF course that is correct, I should have simply pointed out that on history, he had previous form - The History of the English Speaking Peoples.david_herdson said:
It would be more accurate to say that he was a writer by profession, though I don't think he had any formal training there either. To the extent that he had any trained profession, it would be soldiery.TonyE said:
But to be fair to Churchill, he was a historian by profession.AlastairMeeks said:
"History will be kind to me for I intend to write it." - Sir Winston ChurchillJosiasJessop said:
I see a lot of commonality between Newton and Telford. Both were absolute geniuses who deserved their place in history. But both took credit for discoveries and feats that were not necessarily their own. And both did it by controlling the history that was written about them, and especially the official records.Richard_Tyndall said:
Even though he was from just down the road from me I also think he was pretty dishonest and stole a lot from LeibnizJosiasJessop said:
Newton was a genius, but he was also a massive ass. His treatment of Hooke was disgraceful.CD13 said:Mr Tyson,
Isaac Newton. Arguably the greatest scientist who ever lived (and as mad as a hatter).
Tennyson.0 -
Reading his statement, it suggests to me that Stephen Phillips had become increasing disillusioned with direction of 'current' Conservative Gov under May over the last few months. May should really see this as a wake up call, she has got to widen and strengthen her No10 team because they are making far too many needless rookie mistakes right now. And the current Cabinet team simple are not of the media savvy calibre of the one it replaced.MarqueeMark said:This just seems a bit weird. More to this than meets the eye?
May could do worse than reaching out and giving another prominent Conservative politician the job of her wing man in much the way Osborne acted for his boss Cameron. Too many decisions since the day she was elected within the party have been about settling the old scores and the misguided view that it would be a good idea to wipe out Cameron's successful record in Government. A genuine mistake when so many of the large 2010/2015 intake of Conservative MPs arrived in Parliament under his Leadership, and on his manifesto tickets.
It is quite telling that May's Cabinet reshuffle managed to weed out the most reliable and loyal Cameron Ministers, many of whom just happened to be about the Government's most solid media performers. Take PMQs and Question Time since the recess, neither May or her team are exactly shining up against a weak Labour Opposition in disarray. Quite frankly, the Government would be in a real trouble if they get their act together.0 -
I can't remember whether David Herdson was an outer. I'm not convinced by his argument though. Whatever the previous precedent a referendum is simply asking the people what they think. As has been pointed out the government chose not to put any legal stipulations on the vote.0
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Not turning out to be a great year for Samsung
Samsung recalls 2.8 million washing machines over risk of impact injuries http://cnb.cx/2f1meAL0 -
If the Brexiters are going to blame anyone it should be David Cameron not the judges who are guilty of nothing more than upholding the law.0
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You're right about the technicalities but have drawn the wrong conclusion. It is precisely because the Tories have gained seats on AV across multi-seat wards that is evidence of recovery.El_Capitano said:On Aberdeenshire: am I right in thinking these are single-member by-elections in STV multi-member wards?
In other words, a party can get 25% of the vote at the multi-member election, and that might be enough to win (say) one of four seats. But if that seat is subsequently resigned, and the same party gets 25% at the subsequent by-election, they will have "lost" the seat... until the next full council election.
I may have misunderstood. But if this is the case it's not yet overwhelming evidence for a surge.0 -
Talking of border control doesn't the USA impose bans on people convicted or not of admitting drug use?
Or is this a Daily Mail story I should have ignored (while reading it in a coffee shop - I wouldn't buy the rag myself.)
Border control and stopping free movement was important element in the vote to Leave.0 -
It is very hard to fight such a big rural seat in Lincoln against the default Conservative position. Leaflet delivery and canvassing is very time consuming.0
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Asquith said of him after the First World War (I may not have got the exact words, but it was to this effect) "Winston is writing a big book about himself and calling it 'The Great War'" (this became 'The World's Crisis' of course)TonyE said:
But to be fair to Churchill, he was a historian by profession.AlastairMeeks said:
"History will be kind to me for I intend to write it." - Sir Winston ChurchillJosiasJessop said:
I see a lot of commonality between Newton and Telford. Both were absolute geniuses who deserved their place in history. But both took credit for discoveries and feats that were not necessarily their own. And both did it by controlling the history that was written about them, and especially the official records.Richard_Tyndall said:
Even though he was from just down the road from me I also think he was pretty dishonest and stole a lot from LeibnizJosiasJessop said:
Newton was a genius, but he was also a massive ass. His treatment of Hooke was disgraceful.CD13 said:Mr Tyson,
Isaac Newton. Arguably the greatest scientist who ever lived (and as mad as a hatter).
Tennyson.0 -
I did a quick calculation and 1700 hours is 212 8 hour days. That is a lot more than just a job on the side.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Yes, he does look like a part timer.MikeK said:
The Tories are losing a half-hearted MP, more interested in his profession than his constituents.TheScreamingEagles said:This is bad news for those who don't want a Hard Brexit.
The Tory Party and Parliament is losing a pro Single market not obsessed by immigration Leaver.
"He attracted criticism from some for spending around 1,700 hours annually working as a barrister whilst serving as an MP. Phillips described his own parliamentary attendance record as "excellent", asserting his outside work "doesn’t affect the way in which I perform as an MP", and accused his critics of "envy" over his yearly £750,000 second job earnings.[9]"0 -
Substandard quality has been their byword for 30 years. This is a return to type.TheScreamingEagles said:Not turning out to be a great year for Samsung
Samsung recalls 2.8 million washing machines over risk of impact injuries http://cnb.cx/2f1meAL0 -
Freedom to conduct trade deals implies leaving the customs union. This would lead to tariffs in trade with the EU as well as administrative burdens in respect of country of origin etc. A hard border in NI would also be difficult to avoid. Nissan must have been given assurances relating to the customs union I would have thought.RochdalePioneers said:Labour's position has to be this:
1. We will respect the decision to leave the European Union
2. We therefore need to negotiate the best deal for Britain outside the EU
3. That deal is to become a member of the EFTA - access to the single market, freedom to conduct our own trade deals, freedom from CAP and CFP
The only stumbling block is free movement. But as we will have an open border with the EU in Ireland, that's never going to have an easy fix anyway.
If we campaign to stay in, we will be obliterated. And apparently saying that makes me racist...0 -
Just to settle the FPT conspiracy theory, the picture of that woman is on The Times app and it's the same as the one from the Sun.
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Fear not, not for the first time Ruth has enthusiastically embraced the new reality. The SCons are uniformly pro Brexit now (or pro whatever vague interpretation of Brexit May is making on any given day).SouthamObserver said:
She's also a soft Leaver, so would have no chance of being anything other than a very backbench MP.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Ruth is bringing the Scottish Tories off life support.fitalass said:nunu said:
Wow, Tories finally developing a real base in rural north east and south Scotland now, as Labour lose one. Go Ruth!Scott_P said:Meanwhile, Scottish Tory Surge KLAXON!
https://twitter.com/bbcphilipsim/status/794503277262110720
Philip Sim @BBCPhilipSim 9m9 minutes ago
One Tory gain from the SNP, one technical gain from Lib Dems (although former co-leader Martin Kitts-Hayes was sitting as an independent)
She'd be wasted at Westminster.
Last night's 2 by-elections adjoined Scotland's most Brexit friendly region, which may not be entirely unconnected to the results.0 -
Allowing for 4 weeks of holiday a year, it's 35 hours a week of billed time, or what most people would call, a full time job.Richard_Tyndall said:
I did a quick calculation and 1700 hours is 212 8 hour days. That is a lot more than just a job on the side.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Yes, he does look like a part timer.MikeK said:
The Tories are losing a half-hearted MP, more interested in his profession than his constituents.TheScreamingEagles said:This is bad news for those who don't want a Hard Brexit.
The Tory Party and Parliament is losing a pro Single market not obsessed by immigration Leaver.
"He attracted criticism from some for spending around 1,700 hours annually working as a barrister whilst serving as an MP. Phillips described his own parliamentary attendance record as "excellent", asserting his outside work "doesn’t affect the way in which I perform as an MP", and accused his critics of "envy" over his yearly £750,000 second job earnings.[9]"0 -
It seems that other Conservative MPs are also unhappy with the "enemies of the people" approach:
https://twitter.com/neill_bob/status/7944942039843102720 -
If we treat the court judgement row as if it was the US Presidential campaign then some would be saying that May is a criminal whose government is attempting to break the law by imposing Article 50 without parliamentary approval .0
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@RochdalePioneers
'Labour's position has to be this:
1. We will respect the decision to leave the European Union
2. We therefore need to negotiate the best deal for Britain outside the EU
3. That deal is to become a member of the EFTA - access to the single market, freedom to conduct our own trade deals, freedom from CAP and CFP
The only stumbling block is free movement.'
The only stumbling block is that free movement was the main reason voters rejected staying in the EU.0 -
It is literally a full 35h week with 28 days holiday.maaarsh said:
Allowing for 4 weeks of holiday a year, it's 35 hours a week of billed time, or what most people would call, a full time job.Richard_Tyndall said:
I did a quick calculation and 1700 hours is 212 8 hour days. That is a lot more than just a job on the side.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Yes, he does look like a part timer.MikeK said:
The Tories are losing a half-hearted MP, more interested in his profession than his constituents.TheScreamingEagles said:This is bad news for those who don't want a Hard Brexit.
The Tory Party and Parliament is losing a pro Single market not obsessed by immigration Leaver.
"He attracted criticism from some for spending around 1,700 hours annually working as a barrister whilst serving as an MP. Phillips described his own parliamentary attendance record as "excellent", asserting his outside work "doesn’t affect the way in which I perform as an MP", and accused his critics of "envy" over his yearly £750,000 second job earnings.[9]"0 -
Being an MP was clearly just a hobby for him. The MP salary was 10% of his real earnings!maaarsh said:
Allowing for 4 weeks of holiday a year, it's 35 hours a week of billed time, or what most people would call, a full time job.Richard_Tyndall said:
I did a quick calculation and 1700 hours is 212 8 hour days. That is a lot more than just a job on the side.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Yes, he does look like a part timer.MikeK said:
The Tories are losing a half-hearted MP, more interested in his profession than his constituents.TheScreamingEagles said:This is bad news for those who don't want a Hard Brexit.
The Tory Party and Parliament is losing a pro Single market not obsessed by immigration Leaver.
"He attracted criticism from some for spending around 1,700 hours annually working as a barrister whilst serving as an MP. Phillips described his own parliamentary attendance record as "excellent", asserting his outside work "doesn’t affect the way in which I perform as an MP", and accused his critics of "envy" over his yearly £750,000 second job earnings.[9]"0 -
Correct, STV "gains" are often fake. But in this case, look at the overall results from last time. These look like decent swings from SNP to Con, combined with transfers from other Unionist parties.El_Capitano said:On Aberdeenshire: am I right in thinking these are single-member by-elections in STV multi-member wards?
In other words, a party can get 25% of the vote at the multi-member election, and that might be enough to win (say) one of four seats. But if that seat is subsequently resigned, and the same party gets 25% at the subsequent by-election, they will have "lost" the seat... until the next full council election.
I may have misunderstood. But if this is the case it's not yet overwhelming evidence for a surge.
Banff and District
Result of ward at last election (2012)
Scottish National Party 803, 1,037 (56%)
Conservatives 768 (23%)
Liberal Democrats 369 (11%)
Scottish Christian Party 342 (10%)
Candidates duly nominated: Alistair Mason (Lib Dem), Glen Reynolds (SNP), Iain Taylor (Con)
Inverurie and District
Result of ward at last election (2012)
Scottish National Party 688, 612 (37%)
Conservatives 608 (18%)
Liberal Democrats 606 (17%)
Labour 463 (13%)
Independents 211, 196 (12%)
Green Party 113 (3%)0 -
OGH: - "The Tories had theoretical majority of 12 at GE2015. Zac took it down to 10 and Philips makes it 8 if CON don't hold his seat"
So we'll call that still 12 then to all intents and purposes.0 -
I have met her a couple of times; she's a nice lady. Long-serving local councillor for a rural ward. She leads for the Independents nationally on the LGA and is, as I recall, otherwise what you might expect a rural small-c conservative councillor to be like. I don't know her views on the EU.AlastairMeeks said:I want to know more about this independent, Marianne Overton, who's kept her deposit at two successive general elections.
0 -
If she throws her hat into the ring, she could be an interesting wild card. It's not as though any of the other challengers are particularly well placed to make their pitch to the electorate.IanB2 said:
I have met her a couple of times; she's a nice lady. Long-serving local councillor for a rural ward. She leads for the Independents nationally on the LGA and is, as I recall, otherwise what you might expect a rural small-c conservative councillor to be like. I don't know her views on the EU.AlastairMeeks said:I want to know more about this independent, Marianne Overton, who's kept her deposit at two successive general elections.
EDIT: that's a truly appalling mixed metaphor.0 -
He comes across as a massive numpty.Sean_Fear said:
He does come over as being a bit precious.MaxPB said:
I think he's probably a secret remainer and isn't pleased with the way Brexit is proceeding. He also has a pretty decent second job so walking away isn't a big deal. It's an easy Con hold.MarqueeMark said:This just seems a bit weird. More to this than meets the eye?
0 -
Note the distinction between judges being the enemies of the people, and the claimant's case being to frustrate the purposes of government.AlastairMeeks said:It seems that other Conservative MPs are also unhappy with the "enemies of the people" approach:
https://twitter.com/neill_bob/status/7944942039843102720 -
Bob Neill , barrister, inevitably.AlastairMeeks said:It seems that other Conservative MPs are also unhappy with the "enemies of the people" approach:
https://twitter.com/neill_bob/status/794494203984310272
Shakespeare, Dickens, Peter Cook etc. have all hated, mocked and despised the legal profession. It's in the English tradition.0 -
Theresa May is wasting political capital at a worryingly rapid rate, mostly over peripheral matters. The Article 50 court case is a prime example; if there was always a substantial risk of losing it - as seems likely given the High Court ruling - then she shouldn't have allowed it to get this far. An Article 50 bill would have been much easier to get through earlier. If the appeal fails, she'll now be bogged down in a war of parliamentary attrition, which ironically can only make the Brexit deal worse as it will screw up her negotiating hand.
What's more, she's damaging her USP of competence. The current shenanigans, and mislaying another MP, isn't exactly helpful to making the government look competent.
On Stephen Phillips specifically, it seems a very odd issue to make a stand over. The main effect is to add to the impression of chaos in the government.0 -
Interesting results from Inverurie and Banff, however yesterday’s big surprise at the locals (for me at least) was a second gain in recent weeks where Plaid Cymru took a seat from Labour – Are the Reds really struggling as a whole in Wales?0
-
Meanwhile, Jeremy Corbyn is campaigning on benefits for parents who have lost children, which given what else is going on is probably neither the best use of his time nor the best way (or time) to highlight the issue.
Miliband might not have been very good as leader but at least he understood what needed doing and did his best to do it.0 -
For all intents and purposes SF should be considered.peter_from_putney said:OGH: - "The Tories had theoretical majority of 12 at GE2015. Zac took it down to 10 and Philips makes it 8 if CON don't hold his seat"
So we'll call that still 12 then to all intents and purposes.0 -
-
Tennyson kept his Lincolnshire accent, as demonstrated in this lofi Edison recording You assume the greats must have been declaiming in received pronunciation, but accents were a lot more diverse in those pre-homogenised days.Richard_Tyndall said:
Isaac NewtonSean_Fear said:
Margaret Thatcher.tyson said:
He could get lost as he wanders away from Islington to places he didn't even know existed....like Lincolnshire for instance.Tissue_Price said:
(a) Yes (b) How?MarkHopkins said:
General Election. TMay can get clear mandate for A50. Labour can get rid of Corbyn.
BTW....can someone please tell me if Lincolnshire has produced anyone of any note in the whole history of our great nation?
Tennyson
John Wesley0 -
He did threaten to resign once before, if the referendum didn't happen. Which at the least suggests he is the resigning-on-a-point sort, if not that he has been looking for a pretext.MarqueeMark said:This just seems a bit weird. More to this than meets the eye?
0 -
Not so. EFTA members of the EEA do not have barriers to trade with the EU but are not in the Customs Union and are able to conduct their own trade deals.PeterC said:
Freedom to conduct trade deals implies leaving the customs union. This would lead to tariffs in trade with the EU as well as administrative burdens in respect of country of origin etc. A hard border in NI would also be difficult to avoid. Nissan must have been given assurances relating to the customs union I would have thought.RochdalePioneers said:Labour's position has to be this:
1. We will respect the decision to leave the European Union
2. We therefore need to negotiate the best deal for Britain outside the EU
3. That deal is to become a member of the EFTA - access to the single market, freedom to conduct our own trade deals, freedom from CAP and CFP
The only stumbling block is free movement. But as we will have an open border with the EU in Ireland, that's never going to have an easy fix anyway.
If we campaign to stay in, we will be obliterated. And apparently saying that makes me racist...0 -
The shame of the people who conspired to make this situation inevitable is something they'll all have to live with.IanB2 said:
He did threaten to resign once before, if the referendum didn't happen.MarqueeMark said:This just seems a bit weird. More to this than meets the eye?
0 -
''f we treat the court judgement row as if it was the US Presidential campaign then some would be saying that May is a criminal whose government is attempting to break the law by imposing Article 50 without parliamentary approval . ''
May is only doing what the government promised Mark.
''this is your decision, the government will implement what you decide''.
A point that was hammered home by Remainer lib dems again and again. Final decision. No going back. Be careful what you wish for.
It was David Cameron, who promised to impose article 50 without parliamentary approval.
Read the government's leaflet to the electorate. This is what it says.
What we now know is the electorate was mis-sold a referendum.0 -
Indeed. He's barely even a part-time MP. I don't have a great problem with MPs earning from second jobs. I do have a problem when they are taking the p1ss.Richard_Tyndall said:
I did a quick calculation and 1700 hours is 212 8 hour days. That is a lot more than just a job on the side.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Yes, he does look like a part timer.MikeK said:
The Tories are losing a half-hearted MP, more interested in his profession than his constituents.TheScreamingEagles said:This is bad news for those who don't want a Hard Brexit.
The Tory Party and Parliament is losing a pro Single market not obsessed by immigration Leaver.
"He attracted criticism from some for spending around 1,700 hours annually working as a barrister whilst serving as an MP. Phillips described his own parliamentary attendance record as "excellent", asserting his outside work "doesn’t affect the way in which I perform as an MP", and accused his critics of "envy" over his yearly £750,000 second job earnings.[9]"0 -
Any there any other principled QCs who are also conservative MPs who could also resign?
Ken Clarke QC has announced he is standing down and voting against article 50, so he will be ending his long career as an MP, mainly on the front bench and a minister, as a rebel.0 -
Nah, now he's stopped being an MP he can stop pretending to be a Leaver.Theuniondivvie said:0 -
''Regrexit?''
What a LINO.
good riddance0 -
Agreed - but now within MOE.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Trump is not ahead where he needs to be ahead. Of course that could change, or the polls could be wrong, but on current polling he is behind.MikeK said:BBC says the US election polls tighten. Translation: Trump is now ahead.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-37868209
We'll know a lot about Nevada when the last figures for week 2 are released - tomorrow afternoon I assume - last time nearly 22500 extra voters (compared with Thursday, voted)
Looking at the figures
Week 1: Democrat votes up 11,800: Republican voters up 11,600: NPAs up 13,100 - inperson
Week 1: Democrat Voters down 6,350, Republican voters down 4,400 NPAs the same. (mail)
This was before e-mailgate / Dikileaks or whatever you want to call them
Week 2 : This excludes Friday and part of thursday (but Thursday includes Clark/ Washoe)
Democrats down 24,700, Republicans down 12,500, NPA down 2,400 - in person
Democrats down 2,700, Republicans down 6,000, NPA down 2,600 - by mail.
You can read in what you want - if NPAs are Hispanics then good for Clinton, if rednecks then good for Trump. If neutral then these figures are better for Trump.
So Clinton desperately needs a very good Friday.
0 -
And first-count results this time...Tissue_Price said:
Banff and District
Result of ward at last election (2012)
Scottish National Party 803, 1,037 (56%)
Conservatives 768 (23%)
Liberal Democrats 369 (11%)
Scottish Christian Party 342 (10%)
Candidates duly nominated: Alistair Mason (Lib Dem), Glen Reynolds (SNP), Iain Taylor (Con)
Inverurie and District
Result of ward at last election (2012)
Scottish National Party 688, 612 (37%)
Conservatives 608 (18%)
Liberal Democrats 606 (17%)
Labour 463 (13%)
Independents 211, 196 (12%)
Green Party 113 (3%)
Result of Banff and District Ward byelection
Iain Taylor (Con) 1,170 (44%)
Glen David Reynolds (SNP) 962 (36%)
Alistair Mason (SLD) 526 (20%)
Result of Inverurie and District ward
Colin Clark (Con) 1,302 (39%)
Neil Baillie (SNP) 1,164 (35%)
Alison Auld (SLD) 755 (22%)
Sarah Falvell (Lab) 139 (4%)
0 -
If there were any hint that she might be interested, I would put some money on her, because there aren't many constituencies with someone independent of her profile and experience, and her odds would certainly narrow as the contest proceeds.AlastairMeeks said:
If she throws her hat into the ring, she could be an interesting wild card. It's not as though any of the other challengers are particularly well placed to make their pitch to the electorate.IanB2 said:
I have met her a couple of times; she's a nice lady. Long-serving local councillor for a rural ward. She leads for the Independents nationally on the LGA and is, as I recall, otherwise what you might expect a rural small-c conservative councillor to be like. I don't know her views on the EU.AlastairMeeks said:I want to know more about this independent, Marianne Overton, who's kept her deposit at two successive general elections.
EDIT: that's a truly appalling mixed metaphor.
It is interesting that she stood in the GE because I never picked up strong national aspirations on her part - probably she was 'waving the flag' for non-party independents. And given the febrile environment in which the by-election would take place, she would need a distinctive position on the big issue of the day, and I have no idea what that would be.
ISTM that it would be particularly hard for a genuine independent to attract votes from any side on the EU question that has brought the by-election about?0 -
It's from an interview on 11th October.tlg86 said:
Nah, now he's stopped being an MP he can stop pretending to be a Leaver.Theuniondivvie said:0 -
Two different stories, really. In Inverurie the Cons swept up the non-SNP vote; in Banff the SNP vote dropped by 20%.Tissue_Price said:
And first-count results this time...Tissue_Price said:
Banff and District
Result of ward at last election (2012)
Scottish National Party 803, 1,037 (56%)
Conservatives 768 (23%)
Liberal Democrats 369 (11%)
Scottish Christian Party 342 (10%)
Candidates duly nominated: Alistair Mason (Lib Dem), Glen Reynolds (SNP), Iain Taylor (Con)
Inverurie and District
Result of ward at last election (2012)
Scottish National Party 688, 612 (37%)
Conservatives 608 (18%)
Liberal Democrats 606 (17%)
Labour 463 (13%)
Independents 211, 196 (12%)
Green Party 113 (3%)
Result of Banff and District Ward byelection
Iain Taylor (Con) 1,170 (44%)
Glen David Reynolds (SNP) 962 (36%)
Alistair Mason (SLD) 526 (20%)
Result of Inverurie and District ward
Colin Clark (Con) 1,302 (39%)
Neil Baillie (SNP) 1,164 (35%)
Alison Auld (SLD) 755 (22%)
Sarah Falvell (Lab) 139 (4%)0 -
National Tracker - Rasmussen - Sample 1,500 - 1-3 Nov
Clinton 44 .. Trump 44
Note - 3 point move to Clinton .... Ras reverts ....
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch_nov40 -
The swing-back theory in action?JackW said:National Tracker - Rasmussen - Sample 1,500 - 1-3 Nov
Clinton 44 .. Trump 44
Note - 3 point move to Clinton .... Ras reverts ....
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch_nov40 -
Seaford and North Hykeham has elected die-hard Tory Europhiles before, Douglas Hogg and now Phillips it seems so it will probably be a Tory hold. However given North Kesteven district, if which the seat forms part, comfortably voted Leave UKIP will fancy their chances, especially if the Tories pick another Remainer as their candidate given Parliament now has a vote on Brexit0
-
Stocks are getting badly kicked today.
Clearly Mr JackW knows something they don't.0 -
Apparently the gains may be enough to flip control of the council based on the current groupings, though it's complicated...TheWhiteRabbit said:
Two different stories, really. In Inverurie the Cons swept up the non-SNP vote; in Banff the SNP vote dropped by 20%.Tissue_Price said:
And first-count results this time...Tissue_Price said:
Banff and District
Result of ward at last election (2012)
Scottish National Party 803, 1,037 (56%)
Conservatives 768 (23%)
Liberal Democrats 369 (11%)
Scottish Christian Party 342 (10%)
Candidates duly nominated: Alistair Mason (Lib Dem), Glen Reynolds (SNP), Iain Taylor (Con)
Inverurie and District
Result of ward at last election (2012)
Scottish National Party 688, 612 (37%)
Conservatives 608 (18%)
Liberal Democrats 606 (17%)
Labour 463 (13%)
Independents 211, 196 (12%)
Green Party 113 (3%)
Result of Banff and District Ward byelection
Iain Taylor (Con) 1,170 (44%)
Glen David Reynolds (SNP) 962 (36%)
Alistair Mason (SLD) 526 (20%)
Result of Inverurie and District ward
Colin Clark (Con) 1,302 (39%)
Neil Baillie (SNP) 1,164 (35%)
Alison Auld (SLD) 755 (22%)
Sarah Falvell (Lab) 139 (4%)
https://www.aberdeenshire.gov.uk/council-and-democracy/about-us/council-makeup/0 -
A lawyer died and was met by St. Peter at the pearly gates.Richard_Tyndall said:
I did a quick calculation and 1700 hours is 212 8 hour days. That is a lot more than just a job on the side.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Yes, he does look like a part timer.MikeK said:
The Tories are losing a half-hearted MP, more interested in his profession than his constituents.TheScreamingEagles said:This is bad news for those who don't want a Hard Brexit.
The Tory Party and Parliament is losing a pro Single market not obsessed by immigration Leaver.
"He attracted criticism from some for spending around 1,700 hours annually working as a barrister whilst serving as an MP. Phillips described his own parliamentary attendance record as "excellent", asserting his outside work "doesn’t affect the way in which I perform as an MP", and accused his critics of "envy" over his yearly £750,000 second job earnings.[9]"
“There must be some mistake,” the lawyer complained.
“Why is that?” asked St. Peter.
“Because I’m only forty-two years old!” exclaimed the lawyer.
“Oh? According to your billed hours, you are eighty-seven!
0 -
Interesting - thanks. How does the EU avoid it common external tariff being circumvented via imports at lower tariffs coming via EFTA non-EU countries?Richard_Tyndall said:
Not so. EFTA members of the EEA do not have barriers to trade with the EU but are not in the Customs Union and are able to conduct their own trade deals.PeterC said:
Freedom to conduct trade deals implies leaving the customs union. This would lead to tariffs in trade with the EU as well as administrative burdens in respect of country of origin etc. A hard border in NI would also be difficult to avoid. Nissan must have been given assurances relating to the customs union I would have thought.RochdalePioneers said:Labour's position has to be this:
1. We will respect the decision to leave the European Union
2. We therefore need to negotiate the best deal for Britain outside the EU
3. That deal is to become a member of the EFTA - access to the single market, freedom to conduct our own trade deals, freedom from CAP and CFP
The only stumbling block is free movement. But as we will have an open border with the EU in Ireland, that's never going to have an easy fix anyway.
If we campaign to stay in, we will be obliterated. And apparently saying that makes me racist...0 -
Rules of originPeterC said:
Interesting - thanks. How does the EU avoid it common external tariff being circumvented via imports at lower tariffs coming via EFTA non-EU countries?Richard_Tyndall said:
Not so. EFTA members of the EEA do not have barriers to trade with the EU but are not in the Customs Union and are able to conduct their own trade deals.PeterC said:
Freedom to conduct trade deals implies leaving the customs union. This would lead to tariffs in trade with the EU as well as administrative burdens in respect of country of origin etc. A hard border in NI would also be difficult to avoid. Nissan must have been given assurances relating to the customs union I would have thought.RochdalePioneers said:Labour's position has to be this:
1. We will respect the decision to leave the European Union
2. We therefore need to negotiate the best deal for Britain outside the EU
3. That deal is to become a member of the EFTA - access to the single market, freedom to conduct our own trade deals, freedom from CAP and CFP
The only stumbling block is free movement. But as we will have an open border with the EU in Ireland, that's never going to have an easy fix anyway.
If we campaign to stay in, we will be obliterated. And apparently saying that makes me racist...
See: https://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/business/calculation-customs-duties/rules-origin_en0 -
Indeed.williamglenn said:
The shame of the people who conspired to make this situation inevitable is something they'll all have to live with.IanB2 said:
He did threaten to resign once before, if the referendum didn't happen.MarqueeMark said:This just seems a bit weird. More to this than meets the eye?
Whilst I, like almost everyone, recognise that the die is now cast, there is little doubt in my mind that the UK will come in time to regret its decision to step away from the EU and that the bunch of cynical opportunists and extremists that have led us to this pass surely won't be around when the accountability for the consequences is going begging.
Boris - as the principal culprit - knows this; it doesn't matter whether his 'Titanic' reference was conscious or sub-conscious, it shows that he knows, deep down, how this will probably end.0 -
Given the times that the courts sit and those that Parliament sits, he must have been in parliament only in the late evenings. As with you, I don't have an issue with second jobs (in my view an MP's salary is derisory) but his judgement was lacking (which is interesting in both being at the bar and being an MP).Lucian_Fletcher said:
Indeed. He's barely even a part-time MP. I don't have a great problem with MPs earning from second jobs. I do have a problem when they are taking the p1ss.Richard_Tyndall said:
I did a quick calculation and 1700 hours is 212 8 hour days. That is a lot more than just a job on the side.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Yes, he does look like a part timer.MikeK said:
The Tories are losing a half-hearted MP, more interested in his profession than his constituents.TheScreamingEagles said:This is bad news for those who don't want a Hard Brexit.
The Tory Party and Parliament is losing a pro Single market not obsessed by immigration Leaver.
"He attracted criticism from some for spending around 1,700 hours annually working as a barrister whilst serving as an MP. Phillips described his own parliamentary attendance record as "excellent", asserting his outside work "doesn’t affect the way in which I perform as an MP", and accused his critics of "envy" over his yearly £750,000 second job earnings.[9]"0
