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edited November 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theresa May’s majority reduced even further as another CON MP quits

Stephen Phillips to stand down with immediate effect pic.twitter.com/6j1y2LqwV4

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  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,706
    edited November 2016
    Theresa May is a pound shop Gordon Brown, when even Brexit supporting MPs are quitting over handling of Brexit you know she's messed up big style
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I want to know more about this independent, Marianne Overton, who's kept her deposit at two successive general elections.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''Theresa May is a pound shop Gordon Brown, when even Brexit supporting MPs are quitting over handling of Brexit you know she's messed up big style ''

    Maybe you should have gone for Leadsom, after all?
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    Wouldn't it be better for the type of Brexit he wants if he stayed in Parliament?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    AlastairMeeks said:

    I want to know more about this independent, Marianne Overton, who's kept her deposit at two successive general elections.

    I believe she has a window?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,706
    taffys said:

    ''Theresa May is a pound shop Gordon Brown, when even Brexit supporting MPs are quitting over handling of Brexit you know she's messed up big style ''

    Maybe you should have gone for Leadsom, after all?

    Nope, Leadsom would have been worse.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    May won;t call a GE because she is scared sh8tless of UKIP.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    This government is a mess.

    Perhaps they, and May in particular, should have spend less time playing and dressing up at the Spectator awards.

    They could have formulated a response to the court case and organised whips to manage their backbenchers.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,686
    I think Theresa May needs to get a grip. Her insistence on not giving Parliament a vote, not spelling out (even in the broadest sense) what Brexit entails and having a tin ear on domestic matters is going to weigh the government down too much. She either needs a fresh mandate from the public or she needs to deliver the 2015 manifesto which made a commitment to staying in the single market.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    The Battle of the Brexits.

    We all know the UKIP candidate will be pushing for a leave now, hard as possible Brexit. What will the Conservative party's line be? Labour, of course, will be utterly irrelevant. A nice rehearsal for our upcoming general election.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,297
    taffys said:

    May won;t call a GE because she is scared sh8tless of UKIP.

    The UKIP that was down almost uniformly last night?
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,844
    Perhaps this will help LD and Labour come to an agreement - Labour could certainly do with no LDs here to fend off the approaching kippers.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Alistair said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I want to know more about this independent, Marianne Overton, who's kept her deposit at two successive general elections.

    I believe she has a window?
    Has she gone and changed her name again?
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    General Election. TMay can get clear mandate for A50. Labour can get rid of Corbyn.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,706
    Great ironies of our time, #552

    David Cameron went for 2016 referendum in part because he didn't want the rest of the Parliament to be dominated by the referendum.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Paristonda said:

    Perhaps this will help LD and Labour come to an agreement - Labour could certainly do with no LDs here to fend off the approaching kippers.

    Will Farage stand? This is his chance.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Jonathan said:

    This government is a mess.

    Perhaps they, and May in particular, should have spend less time playing and dressing up at the Spectator awards.

    They could have formulated a response to the court case and organised whips to manage their backbenchers.

    It's what not having an opposition leads to. It's no good for the country and ultimately it's no good for the Tories.

  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,844
    DanSmith said:

    Wouldn't it be better for the type of Brexit he wants if he stayed in Parliament?

    Yes seems odd - if he was in a marginal it might make sense, because the government could lose a seat, but here they are going to easily hold it, and all that will change is that the government loses a critic.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,966
    FPT:
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Essexit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Where are those PBers who assured me that Theresa May had a rock solid majority in Parliament because of the DUP, Sinn Fein Abstentions etc

    The issue isn't getting Article 50 through the Commons. It's

    a) Not being amended to death in the Commons
    b) The Lords
    The Leader of the Labour Peers has said they will not block Brexit.
    Still the possibility of forcing May to reveal her full negotiating position or a second referendum clause (both of which would result in a worse deal).
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    MaxPB said:

    or she needs to deliver the 2015 manifesto which made a commitment to staying in the single market.

    The only way she can guarantee that is to announce that she won't be invoking Article 50 at all, but she welcomes any constructive proposals from the EU...
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited November 2016
    Anyone know what Stephen Phillips ‘significant policy differences’ are. – Isn't he a Leaver?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    MarkHopkins said:


    General Election. TMay can get clear mandate for A50. Labour can get rid of Corbyn.

    (a) Yes (b) How?
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,123
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    taffys said:

    ''Theresa May is a pound shop Gordon Brown, when even Brexit supporting MPs are quitting over handling of Brexit you know she's messed up big style ''

    Maybe you should have gone for Leadsom, after all?

    Nope, Leadsom would have been worse.
    Was it you TSE that said the only good thing about the (very glamorous) Theresa- I added a little bit of description- is that she isn't Angela Leadsome?

    If it wasn't you it is still a very good quote...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,686
    SouthamObserver said:

    The Battle of the Brexits.

    We all know the UKIP candidate will be pushing for a leave now, hard as possible Brexit. What will the Conservative party's line be? Labour, of course, will be utterly irrelevant. A nice rehearsal for our upcoming general election.

    Will UKIP even run? Will they want to possibly dilute the Con majority given Labour and the Lib Dems want to frustrate or reverse th Brexit vote.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,128
    For what its worth, May always going to encounter these sort of difficulties. Cameron entirely to blame for calling a referendum he had no intention of losing. We are seeing the consequences of a negligent failure to plan for all eventualities.

    Saying that, May needs a mandate of her own. She'll get that if she goes for a GE now.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,128
    For what its worth, May always going to encounter these sort of difficulties. Cameron entirely to blame for calling a referendum he had no intention of losing. We are seeing the consequences of a negligent failure to plan for all eventualities.

    Saying that, May needs a mandate of her own. She'll get that if she goes for a GE now.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,883
    That's a bloody weird move. We haven't triggered Article 50, let alone started negotiating.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    SouthamObserver said:

    Jonathan said:

    This government is a mess.

    Perhaps they, and May in particular, should have spend less time playing and dressing up at the Spectator awards.

    They could have formulated a response to the court case and organised whips to manage their backbenchers.

    It's what not having an opposition leads to. It's no good for the country and ultimately it's no good for the Tories.

    You can pin much on Corbyn, but this is not his fault. What we are seeing are the fault-lines within the Tory party and some incompetence at the top of party.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,686
    williamglenn said:

    MaxPB said:

    or she needs to deliver the 2015 manifesto which made a commitment to staying in the single market.

    The only way she can guarantee that is to announce that she won't be invoking Article 50 at all, but she welcomes any constructive proposals from the EU...
    Do shut up.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,844
    Jonathan said:

    Paristonda said:

    Perhaps this will help LD and Labour come to an agreement - Labour could certainly do with no LDs here to fend off the approaching kippers.

    Will Farage stand? This is his chance.
    Nah - he's got big bucks waiting for him on Trump TV surely. There's no interest for him being in Parliament now - he's won his war, and if there's any backsliding he can just as easily get his voice heard from outside parliament.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,706
    tyson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    taffys said:

    ''Theresa May is a pound shop Gordon Brown, when even Brexit supporting MPs are quitting over handling of Brexit you know she's messed up big style ''

    Maybe you should have gone for Leadsom, after all?

    Nope, Leadsom would have been worse.
    Was it you TSE that said the only good thing about the (very glamorous) Theresa- I added a little bit of description- is that she isn't Angela Leadsome?

    If it wasn't you it is still a very good quote...
    I may have said that.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,297
    Essexit said:

    FPT:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Essexit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Where are those PBers who assured me that Theresa May had a rock solid majority in Parliament because of the DUP, Sinn Fein Abstentions etc

    The issue isn't getting Article 50 through the Commons. It's

    a) Not being amended to death in the Commons
    b) The Lords
    The Leader of the Labour Peers has said they will not block Brexit.
    Still the possibility of forcing May to reveal her full negotiating position or a second referendum clause (both of which would result in a worse deal).
    Exactly how long after the first meeting of the negotiations do you imagine each party's position will remain unclear?

    The EU27 haven't said there will be no running commentary.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    edited November 2016
    Jonathan said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Jonathan said:

    This government is a mess.

    Perhaps they, and May in particular, should have spend less time playing and dressing up at the Spectator awards.

    They could have formulated a response to the court case and organised whips to manage their backbenchers.

    It's what not having an opposition leads to. It's no good for the country and ultimately it's no good for the Tories.

    You can pin much on Corbyn, but this is not his fault. What we are seeing are the fault-lines within the Tory party and some incompetence at the top of party.

    Yes, but it's all consequence free politically. That's the point.

  • BigIanBigIan Posts: 198
    OGH: "With both LAB in disarray ..."

    Hehe, marvellous!
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    MaxPB said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    The Battle of the Brexits.

    We all know the UKIP candidate will be pushing for a leave now, hard as possible Brexit. What will the Conservative party's line be? Labour, of course, will be utterly irrelevant. A nice rehearsal for our upcoming general election.

    Will UKIP even run? Will they want to possibly dilute the Con majority given Labour and the Lib Dems want to frustrate or reverse th Brexit vote.

    I'd be shocked if they didn't. It's a huge opportunity for them.

  • tysontyson Posts: 6,123
    Tissue_Price said:

    MarkHopkins said:


    General Election. TMay can get clear mandate for A50. Labour can get rid of Corbyn.

    (a) Yes (b) How?
    He could get lost as he wanders away from Islington to places he didn't even know existed....like Lincolnshire for instance.

    BTW....can someone please tell me if Lincolnshire has produced anyone of any note in the whole history of our great nation?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    And UKIP aren't in disarray?!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,209
    SimonStClare said:

    Anyone know what Stephen Phillips ‘significant policy differences’ are. – Isn't he a Leaver?

    Toys out of the pram. He rejects the way the government has gone about this. Not unreasonable, but my guess is that he isn't a leaver and just said that to get the seat in the first place.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,706
    AlastairMeeks said:

    I want to know more about this independent, Marianne Overton, who's kept her deposit at two successive general elections.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lincolnshire_Independents


    https://www.lincolnshire.gov.uk/news/new-year-honour-for-councillor-marianne-overton/118970.article

    She seems to be quite highly regarded at the LGA
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Still the Brexiteers persist with the line that A Tory MP resigning explicitly because of May's handling of Brexit is Cameron's fault...
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    To lose one MP may be regarded as a misfortune; to lose two looks like carelessness.

    It's quite bizarre that the Tories, who have found themselves in such a strong position, are in such a state of disarray. Perhaps it's symptomatic of being too powerful, perhaps it's symptomatic of the general malaise in UK politics, perhaps it's symptomatic of TM not really being a very good leader.

    Because of the depression in politics no-one is probably very keen to do so, but perhaps this would be the ideal time for someone to start a new political party.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Meanwhile, Scottish Tory Surge KLAXON!

    https://twitter.com/bbcphilipsim/status/794503277262110720
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Huzzah!
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/794503162069680128
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Zac won't vote against the Conservatives on anything other than Heathow and Phillips is either staying on or will be replaced by another Conservative (would be interesting to see if a europhile or brexiter was selected).

    So Idon't think much will change.
  • Sean_FearSean_Fear Posts: 84
    tyson said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    MarkHopkins said:


    General Election. TMay can get clear mandate for A50. Labour can get rid of Corbyn.

    (a) Yes (b) How?
    He could get lost as he wanders away from Islington to places he didn't even know existed....like Lincolnshire for instance.

    BTW....can someone please tell me if Lincolnshire has produced anyone of any note in the whole history of our great nation?
    Margaret Thatcher.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,706
    Dadge said:

    To lose one MP may be regarded as a misfortune; to lose two looks like carelessness.

    It's quite bizarre that the Tories, who have found themselves in such a strong position, are in such a state of disarray. Perhaps it's symptomatic of being too powerful, perhaps it's symptomatic of the general malaise in UK politics, perhaps it's symptomatic of TM not really being a very good leader.

    Because of the depression in politics no-one is probably very keen to do so, but perhaps this would be the ideal time for someone to start a new political party.

    She's lost three MPs in less than 2 months.

  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Scott_P said:

    Meanwhile, Scottish Tory Surge KLAXON

    Both genuine whopping gains as well.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/11/03/tonights-local-by-election-previewed-by-harry-hayfield/
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,883
    Has Mr. Fear been reincarnated? I have a suspicion he's posted more than 13 times.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    No doubt it's random chance but it's curious that there have been so many by-elections recently in greater Manchester and now this one is adjacent to Newark.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,686
    SouthamObserver said:

    MaxPB said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    The Battle of the Brexits.

    We all know the UKIP candidate will be pushing for a leave now, hard as possible Brexit. What will the Conservative party's line be? Labour, of course, will be utterly irrelevant. A nice rehearsal for our upcoming general election.

    Will UKIP even run? Will they want to possibly dilute the Con majority given Labour and the Lib Dems want to frustrate or reverse th Brexit vote.

    I'd be shocked if they didn't. It's a huge opportunity for them.

    I wouldn't. UKIP are in turmoil, if they fail to come second it might hasten their decline. Tactically not standing and supporting the Tories makes sense here, possibly splitting the Brexit vote and letting another remain MP into the house is reason enough to stand down.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,844
    This just seems a bit weird. More to this than meets the eye?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    Doesn't two vacancies reduce the Tory majority to 10? The majority only drops by two if a seat is lost to another party.

    On topic, it is helpful for the Conservatives that the only MPs resigning are ones with 20k+ majorities.

    Assuming that Phillips is not standing again - it doesn't sound as if he is - I should have thought that this will be a routine hold with a Leave candidate selected quickly.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,882
    Michael Crick ‏@MichaelLCrick 3m3 minutes ago
    Stephen Phillips's "irreconcilable differences" with Govt included Brexit court case and child refugees
  • eekeek Posts: 31,230
    SimonStClare said:

    Anyone know what Stephen Phillips ‘significant policy differences’ are. – Isn't he a Leaver?

    Hard Brexit is something he doesn't like - even though I suspect all discussions about it are to establish our negotiation starting position
  • TonyTony Posts: 159
    tlg86 said:

    SimonStClare said:

    Anyone know what Stephen Phillips ‘significant policy differences’ are. – Isn't he a Leaver?

    Toys out of the pram. He rejects the way the government has gone about this. Not unreasonable, but my guess is that he isn't a leaver and just said that to get the seat in the first place.
    Think this is spot on, there are quite a few Tory 'Leavers' in strong leave areas who lied to get the nomination. Likewise quite a few nominal 'Remainers' who thought they were picking the winning side over personal views.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Theresa May is a pound shop Gordon Brown, when even Brexit supporting MPs are quitting over handling of Brexit you know she's messed up big style

    If only Cameron had been a man of his word and invoked Article 50 when he said he would...
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    MarqueeMark said:

    This just seems a bit weird. More to this than meets the eye?

    Politics in general seems a bit weird.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Dadge said:

    To lose one MP may be regarded as a misfortune; to lose two looks like carelessness.

    At least she still has her handbag.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,388
    Mr Tyson,

    Isaac Newton. Arguably the greatest scientist who ever lived (and as mad as a hatter).
    Tennyson.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    edited November 2016
    Scott_P said:

    Meanwhile, Scottish Tory Surge KLAXON!

    https://twitter.com/bbcphilipsim/status/794503277262110720

    Wow, Tories finally developing a real base in rural north east and south Scotland now, as Labour lose one. Go Ruth!
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,123
    Sean_Fear said:

    tyson said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    MarkHopkins said:


    General Election. TMay can get clear mandate for A50. Labour can get rid of Corbyn.

    (a) Yes (b) How?
    He could get lost as he wanders away from Islington to places he didn't even know existed....like Lincolnshire for instance.

    BTW....can someone please tell me if Lincolnshire has produced anyone of any note in the whole history of our great nation?
    Margaret Thatcher.
    Well I fell into that one. She was born in Grantham wasn't she? Not that I would have a clue where Grantahm is....I guess it's in Lincolnshire....
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    david_herdson said:

    Doesn't two vacancies reduce the Tory majority to 10? The majority only drops by two if a seat is lost to another party.

    On topic, it is helpful for the Conservatives that the only MPs resigning are ones with 20k+ majorities.

    Assuming that Phillips is not standing again - it doesn't sound as if he is - I should have thought that this will be a routine hold with a Leave candidate selected quickly.

    Well, Zac's seat is lost since we're not defending it, but his "replacement" isn't in the Commons yet. So 10 is right for now, down to 9 after Richmond, probably back up to 10 after Sleaford, probably up to 110 by May.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    tyson said:

    Sean_Fear said:

    tyson said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    MarkHopkins said:


    General Election. TMay can get clear mandate for A50. Labour can get rid of Corbyn.

    (a) Yes (b) How?
    He could get lost as he wanders away from Islington to places he didn't even know existed....like Lincolnshire for instance.

    BTW....can someone please tell me if Lincolnshire has produced anyone of any note in the whole history of our great nation?
    Margaret Thatcher.
    Well I fell into that one. She was born in Grantham wasn't she? Not that I would have a clue where Grantahm is....I guess it's in Lincolnshire....
    I did tell you that on the previous thread!
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    The Conservative surge from Scotland spells awful news for Ayrshire turnip futures .....

    But great news for John McCain ....
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Dadge said:

    To lose one MP may be regarded as a misfortune; to lose two looks like carelessness.

    It's quite bizarre that the Tories, who have found themselves in such a strong position, are in such a state of disarray. Perhaps it's symptomatic of being too powerful, perhaps it's symptomatic of the general malaise in UK politics, perhaps it's symptomatic of TM not really being a very good leader.

    Because of the depression in politics no-one is probably very keen to do so, but perhaps this would be the ideal time for someone to start a new political party.

    She's lost three MPs in less than 2 months.

    How many of them were "losses" is debatable.....what is it with millionaire public school boys?
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Scott_P said:

    Meanwhile, Scottish Tory Surge KLAXON!

    https://twitter.com/bbcphilipsim/status/794503277262110720

    The Banff vote's a kick in the balls for fat Eck. Perhaps he should do his job and get off the B list celeb circuit.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,123
    CD13 said:

    Mr Tyson,

    Isaac Newton. Arguably the greatest scientist who ever lived (and as mad as a hatter).
    Tennyson.

    I am beginning to sound a little like John Cleese in Life of Brian....What have the Romans done for us?

  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    nunu said:

    Wow, Tories finally developing a real base in rural north east and south Scotland now, as Labour lose one. Go Ruth!

    The irony is that many of the first SNP seats to fall will actually be their pre-surge seats, like Banff & Buchan, from back when they were Tartan Tories.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,580
    Sean_Fear said:

    tyson said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    MarkHopkins said:


    General Election. TMay can get clear mandate for A50. Labour can get rid of Corbyn.

    (a) Yes (b) How?
    He could get lost as he wanders away from Islington to places he didn't even know existed....like Lincolnshire for instance.

    BTW....can someone please tell me if Lincolnshire has produced anyone of any note in the whole history of our great nation?
    Margaret Thatcher.
    Isaac Newton
    Tennyson
    John Wesley
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,686
    MarqueeMark said:

    This just seems a bit weird. More to this than meets the eye?

    I think he's probably a secret remainer and isn't pleased with the way Brexit is proceeding. He also has a pretty decent second job so walking away isn't a big deal. It's an easy Con hold.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    tyson said:


    BTW....can someone please tell me if Lincolnshire has produced anyone of any note in the whole history of our great nation?

    Newton
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,086
    TOPPING said:

    taffys said:

    May won;t call a GE because she is scared sh8tless of UKIP.

    The UKIP that was down almost uniformly last night?
    Yes UKIP were 6% to 8% down yet again in all the by-elections, except those where they hadn't stood before.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    JackW said:

    The Conservative surge from Scotland spells awful news for Ayrshire turnip futures .....

    But great news for John McCain ....

    I note in the middle class England battle there was very little change in Eastleigh or Reigate (although Lab/UKIP doing badly in seats they were third/fourth).
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,761
    edited November 2016
    tyson said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    MarkHopkins said:


    General Election. TMay can get clear mandate for A50. Labour can get rid of Corbyn.

    (a) Yes (b) How?
    He could get lost as he wanders away from Islington to places he didn't even know existed....like Lincolnshire for instance.

    BTW....can someone please tell me if Lincolnshire has produced anyone of any note in the whole history of our great nation?
    There are quite a few you may have heard of :-)

    Isaac Newton
    William Cecil.
    Alfred Lord Tennyson.
    John Whitgift
    Guy Gibson
    William Marwood (invented the Long Drop)
    Sybil Thorndike

    Also, some "Borises" who go by their Christian names.

    Hugh of Lincoln.
    Aaron of Lincoln.
    etc

    and recently

    Nicholas Parsons
    Colin Dexter
    Patricia Hodge
    Sam Cam (!)

    A well-wikipedia'd county.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,555
    nunu said:

    Scott_P said:

    Meanwhile, Scottish Tory Surge KLAXON!

    https://twitter.com/bbcphilipsim/status/794503277262110720

    Wow, Tories finally developing a real base in rural north east and south Scotland now, as Labour lose one. Go Ruth!
    Twitter
    Philip Sim ‏@BBCPhilipSim 9m9 minutes ago
    One Tory gain from the SNP, one technical gain from Lib Dems (although former co-leader Martin Kitts-Hayes was sitting as an independent)
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,026
    MaxPB said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    The Battle of the Brexits.

    We all know the UKIP candidate will be pushing for a leave now, hard as possible Brexit. What will the Conservative party's line be? Labour, of course, will be utterly irrelevant. A nice rehearsal for our upcoming general election.

    Will UKIP even run? Will they want to possibly dilute the Con majority given Labour and the Lib Dems want to frustrate or reverse th Brexit vote.
    Given Ukip's response yesterday it's not clear they have much time for the law! I see them standing. Fascinating stuff though.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    fitalass said:

    nunu said:

    Scott_P said:

    Meanwhile, Scottish Tory Surge KLAXON!

    https://twitter.com/bbcphilipsim/status/794503277262110720

    Wow, Tories finally developing a real base in rural north east and south Scotland now, as Labour lose one. Go Ruth!
    Twitter
    Philip Sim ‏@BBCPhilipSim 9m9 minutes ago
    One Tory gain from the SNP, one technical gain from Lib Dems (although former co-leader Martin Kitts-Hayes was sitting as an independent)
    Ruth is bringing the Scottish Tories off life support.

    She'd be wasted at Westminster.
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,394
    tlg86 said:

    SimonStClare said:

    Anyone know what Stephen Phillips ‘significant policy differences’ are. – Isn't he a Leaver?

    Toys out of the pram. He rejects the way the government has gone about this. Not unreasonable, but my guess is that he isn't a leaver and just said that to get the seat in the first place.
    Hmm you may be right. Born in Chiswick and lives in Hampstead, which is not exactly a leaver hotbed.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    "Very significant policy differences with the current government mean that I am unable properly to represent the people who elected me."

    Normal human beings can recognise a non sequitur when they see one.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''Yes UKIP were 6% to 8% down yet again in all the by-elections, except those where they hadn't stood before. ''

    Point conceded. But you don;t vote UKIP for local matters. You vote UKIP to put the sh8ts up the government on a 'look what we could do, if we wanted' basis.
  • pinkrosepinkrose Posts: 189
    As I said yesterday, we need a General Election, especially after the Court ruling and it's heavy emphasis on Parliamentary Sovereignty. A majority of 12 is not going to be enough for Brexit.

    "Soft" Brexit is a con, if we stay in the Single market, keep FoM, stay in the jurisdiction of the ECJ and carrying on paying into the EU budget. That's not soft Brexit, it's not any kind of Brexit at all.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,297
    tyson said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Tyson,

    Isaac Newton. Arguably the greatest scientist who ever lived (and as mad as a hatter).
    Tennyson.

    I am beginning to sound a little like John Cleese in Life of Brian....What have the Romans done for us?

    You should have held your nerve and acted outraged that no one got your droll political joke.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited November 2016
    tlg86 said:

    SimonStClare said:

    Anyone know what Stephen Phillips ‘significant policy differences’ are. – Isn't he a Leaver?

    Toys out of the pram. He rejects the way the government has gone about this. Not unreasonable, but my guess is that he isn't a leaver and just said that to get the seat in the first place.
    You may have a point, his article for the Guardian last month certainly gives the impression of a reluctant Leave supporter, shocked by the Brexit result.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/oct/11/we-voted-brexit-keep-parliament-sovereign-wont-be-gagged
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,686
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    fitalass said:

    nunu said:

    Scott_P said:

    Meanwhile, Scottish Tory Surge KLAXON!

    https://twitter.com/bbcphilipsim/status/794503277262110720

    Wow, Tories finally developing a real base in rural north east and south Scotland now, as Labour lose one. Go Ruth!
    Twitter
    Philip Sim ‏@BBCPhilipSim 9m9 minutes ago
    One Tory gain from the SNP, one technical gain from Lib Dems (although former co-leader Martin Kitts-Hayes was sitting as an independent)
    Ruth is bringing the Scottish Tories off life support.

    She'd be wasted at Westminster.
    I don't know, put her in Number 10. Definitely not wasted then!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,883
    Mr. Tyson, don't feel too bad. I didn't know which county Newton or Thatcher were from either.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    MarqueeMark said:

    This just seems a bit weird. More to this than meets the eye?

    Entitled public school boy overlooked for preferment returns to main job?

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,882
    MattW said:

    tyson said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    MarkHopkins said:


    General Election. TMay can get clear mandate for A50. Labour can get rid of Corbyn.

    (a) Yes (b) How?
    He could get lost as he wanders away from Islington to places he didn't even know existed....like Lincolnshire for instance.

    BTW....can someone please tell me if Lincolnshire has produced anyone of any note in the whole history of our great nation?
    There are quite a few you may have heard of :-)

    Isaac Newton
    William Cecil.
    Alfred Lord Tennyson.
    John Whitgift
    Guy Gibson




    Also, some "Borises" who go by their Christian names.

    Hugh of Lincoln.
    John Shuttleworth?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    nunu said:

    Wow, Tories finally developing a real base in rural north east and south Scotland now, as Labour lose one. Go Ruth!

    Imagine the scene in 2026: Labour could be complaining that they'll never win a UK-wide general election again because of the Tories' block of Scottish seats.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    fitalass said:

    nunu said:

    Scott_P said:

    Meanwhile, Scottish Tory Surge KLAXON!

    https://twitter.com/bbcphilipsim/status/794503277262110720

    Wow, Tories finally developing a real base in rural north east and south Scotland now, as Labour lose one. Go Ruth!
    Twitter
    Philip Sim ‏@BBCPhilipSim 9m9 minutes ago
    One Tory gain from the SNP, one technical gain from Lib Dems (although former co-leader Martin Kitts-Hayes was sitting as an independent)
    Ruth is bringing the Scottish Tories off life support.

    She'd be wasted at Westminster.
    The SNP and their ongoing quest for independence are bringing the Scottish Tories off life support, via Newton's Third Law of Motion. But Ruth is absolutely accelerating the process.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    "Soft" Brexit is a con, if we stay in the Single market, keep FoM, stay in the jurisdiction of the ECJ and carrying on paying into the EU budget. That's not soft Brexit, it's not any kind of Brexit at all.

    Absolutely, and that is what the remainers want.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,706
    edited November 2016
    This is bad news for those who don't want a Hard Brexit.

    The Tory Party and Parliament is losing a pro Single market not obsessed by immigration Leaver.
  • pinkrosepinkrose Posts: 189
    UKIP should stand in areas where the Lab, Con or Lib Dem MP is Remain and in the constituencies where the candidate (likely winner) is Leave they should not field a candidate, simple as that.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,579
    Never heard of him, I confess. If the LDs offered not to stand in exchange for Labour doing the same in Richmond, we might live in interesting times.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,086
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    JackW said:

    The Conservative surge from Scotland spells awful news for Ayrshire turnip futures .....

    But great news for John McCain ....

    I note in the middle class England battle there was very little change in Eastleigh or Reigate (although Lab/UKIP doing badly in seats they were third/fourth).
    Quite a change in Gloucester though:

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 12h12 hours ago
    Longlevens (Gloucester) result:
    CON: 46.2% (+3.7)
    LDEM: 36.9% (+23.7)
    LAB: 9.7% (-8.2)
    UKIP: 7.2% (-6.6)

    I'm not sure how that adds up, where did the LibDems +23.7% come from? A bit from Lab and UKIP but mostly from somewhere else (Green or Independent?)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Who do leavers vote for in a straight fight between a pro-Brexit Tory and UKIP?

    Remember they had a pro-Brexit Tory, who just resigned...
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,761
    rottenborough said:

    MattW said:

    tyson said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    MarkHopkins said:


    General Election. TMay can get clear mandate for A50. Labour can get rid of Corbyn.

    (a) Yes (b) How?
    He could get lost as he wanders away from Islington to places he didn't even know existed....like Lincolnshire for instance.

    BTW....can someone please tell me if Lincolnshire has produced anyone of any note in the whole history of our great nation?
    There are quite a few you may have heard of :-)

    Isaac Newton
    William Cecil.
    Alfred Lord Tennyson.
    John Whitgift
    Guy Gibson




    Also, some "Borises" who go by their Christian names.

    Hugh of Lincoln.
    John Shuttleworth?
    Sorry - there's more but someone hit post early.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,187
    A General Election needs to be held.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,882
    Scott_P said:

    Who do leavers vote for in a straight fight between a pro-Brexit Tory and UKIP?

    Remember they had a pro-Brexit Tory, who just resigned...

    There's more to this I'll wager. Maybe the Sunday's have something?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    logical_song said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    JackW said:

    The Conservative surge from Scotland spells awful news for Ayrshire turnip futures .....

    But great news for John McCain ....

    I note in the middle class England battle there was very little change in Eastleigh or Reigate (although Lab/UKIP doing badly in seats they were third/fourth).
    Quite a change in Gloucester though:

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 12h12 hours ago
    Longlevens (Gloucester) result:
    CON: 46.2% (+3.7)
    LDEM: 36.9% (+23.7)
    LAB: 9.7% (-8.2)
    UKIP: 7.2% (-6.6)

    I'm not sure how that adds up, where did the LibDems +23.7% come from? A bit from Lab and UKIP but mostly from somewhere else (Green or Independent?)
    From the Greens who got 13% last time.

    Labour being hollowed out further, something positive for the Lib Dems but no gain. Lab should have taken a chunk of the Green vote.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    fitalass said:

    nunu said:

    Scott_P said:

    Meanwhile, Scottish Tory Surge KLAXON!

    https://twitter.com/bbcphilipsim/status/794503277262110720

    Wow, Tories finally developing a real base in rural north east and south Scotland now, as Labour lose one. Go Ruth!
    Twitter
    Philip Sim ‏@BBCPhilipSim 9m9 minutes ago
    One Tory gain from the SNP, one technical gain from Lib Dems (although former co-leader Martin Kitts-Hayes was sitting as an independent)
    Ruth is bringing the Scottish Tories off life support.

    She'd be wasted at Westminster.

    She's also a soft Leaver, so would have no chance of being anything other than a very backbench MP.

This discussion has been closed.

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