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MrsB said:

rottenborough said:

Pulpstar said:

Greens not standing in Richmond Park, cancels UKIP tbh.

I was wondering when this would happen. Zac is a green conservative, an endangered breed which needs protection.

The Greens aren't doing it to help Goldsmith, they're doing it to help the Lib Dems!

Will all their voters play ball?

foxinsoxuk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

From previous threads: those that haven't been to Northern Ireland should give it a visit. Don't spend too long in Belfast, the real interest is in the countryside.

There must be some interesting political history for those of us brought up in the Seventies too.

Speaking to a friend the other day - 40s, mother of a young girl whose best friend is from Belfast. She went - loved it, all the recent history, etc. (You can get an open top tour bus down the Falls Road now, apparently.) Didn't feel safe in Dublin, was amazed when another member of the group was told not to get out of the bus wearing the union jack pin badge she had on in some places north and south.

619 said:

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

HYUFD said:

vik said:

New University of Denver poll shows a Tie in Colorado

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/co/colorado_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5974.html

Colorado is increasingly looking like the pivotal state for both campaigns, win there and you win the Electoral College

Mike Pence visited yesterday.

Yes Trump campaign still there but Hillary campaign seem to have scaled down activity, they may need to scale it back up

they did a few months ago. Tbf, the average lead for clinton is high there, that poll has a too low sample of hispanics, and they are massively up in early voting.

If Trump does scrape a win, it will be through a win here, but i can understand why allocating resources to other places is more important

Colorado now tighter than Pennsylvania on RCP certainly

Pulpstar said:

Chris said:

Pulpstar said:

Chris said:

MarqueeMark said:

JackW said:

National - IPSOS/Reuters - Sample 1,772 - 28 Oct - 1 Nov

Clinton 44.7 .. Trump 37.4

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_26/filters/LIKELY:1

Every pollster seems to be having an outlier....

Probably the outlier of the day is this one just added to 538 (though concluded nearly two weeks ago):
Louisiana OCT. 15-21 The Times-Picayune/Lucid (614) C: 40% T: 43% J: 6% Trump +3

Obviously we have to use averages, not individual polls.

I can't see any Louisiana poll with Trump as narrowly as 3% ahead.

Apart from copying and pasting all the details and telling you where they came from, what more can I do to convince you I'm not making it up?

Found it, 538 "adjusted" it to T +8...

OK. :-)

TOPPING said:

foxinsoxuk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

From previous threads: those that haven't been to Northern Ireland should give it a visit. Don't spend too long in Belfast, the real interest is in the countryside.

There must be some interesting political history for those of us brought up in the Seventies too.

Speaking to a friend the other day - 40s, mother of a young girl whose best friend is from Belfast. She went - loved it, all the recent history, etc. (You can get an open top tour bus down the Falls Road now, apparently.) Didn't feel safe in Dublin, was amazed when another member of the group was told not to get out of the bus wearing the union jack pin badge she had on in some places north and south.

My other half celebrated his 40th birthday with a party in Northern Ireland. It fell the weekend after the 2005 general election. One of our friends is from Kenya and she was enthused by all the posters: "I like this place, they take their politics seriously".

TOPPING said:

foxinsoxuk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

From previous threads: those that haven't been to Northern Ireland should give it a visit. Don't spend too long in Belfast, the real interest is in the countryside.

There must be some interesting political history for those of us brought up in the Seventies too.

Speaking to a friend the other day - 40s, mother of a young girl whose best friend is from Belfast. She went - loved it, all the recent history, etc. (You can get an open top tour bus down the Falls Road now, apparently.) Didn't feel safe in Dublin, was amazed when another member of the group was told not to get out of the bus wearing the union jack pin badge she had on in some places north and south.

Have to say the only overtly anti-Brit things I've heard in Dublin have been in pubs during rugby, and from American tourists in places like Kilmainham Gaol.

I didn't expect to, but I love Belfast. It's got an edginess still and you would have to be careful what you say in pubs that are either obviously orange (blue, really) or green but it's vibrant. And the Crown is the greatest pub space I've ever been in in the UK.

Moving directly into politics in Northern Ireland has been absolutely fascinating. Stormont debates can be quite overtly chippy in tone but you do have certain types of people in there that you really wouldn't expect anything else from.

Lucian_Fletcher said:

TOPPING said:

foxinsoxuk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

From previous threads: those that haven't been to Northern Ireland should give it a visit. Don't spend too long in Belfast, the real interest is in the countryside.

There must be some interesting political history for those of us brought up in the Seventies too.

Speaking to a friend the other day - 40s, mother of a young girl whose best friend is from Belfast. She went - loved it, all the recent history, etc. (You can get an open top tour bus down the Falls Road now, apparently.) Didn't feel safe in Dublin, was amazed when another member of the group was told not to get out of the bus wearing the union jack pin badge she had on in some places north and south.

Have to say the only overtly anti-Brit things I've heard in Dublin have been in pubs during rugby, and from American tourists in places like Kilmainham Gaol.

I didn't expect to, but I love Belfast. It's got an edginess still and you would have to be careful what you say in pubs that are either obviously orange (blue, really) or green but it's vibrant. And the Crown is the greatest pub space I've ever been in in the UK.

Moving directly into politics in Northern Ireland has been absolutely fascinating. Stormont debates can be quite overtly chippy in tone but you do have certain types of people in there that you really wouldn't expect anything else from.

I was surprised at the Dublin comment I must say. She also said that all the young people around her daughter's age (18-20) saw the Troubles as a bygone age.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Matt, you're arguing that implementing the decision of the electorate taken at a referendum that was voted through Parliament which was in the manifesto of the party that won a majority at the last election is illegal?

I didn't read it that way. Questioning the method by which that decision is implemented is not unreasonable, and while the government can rule on that since it is a point of if it has the power to do it or not or whether it is reserved to parliament, how can we leave it up to the government to say it has the power to do it or not? They may well be right in this case, but it is important for people to be able to challenge the government's interpretation of the law and who has the power to make decisions.

Government's are always confident they have the power to do what they want to do and that what they propose accords with law as set by parliament. SOmetimes they are wrong though.

Steve Schale, Florida election expert, indicates a big day for Dems in the state yesterday. Spike again in Hispanics including large increases in NPA's in Hispanic communities :

https://twitter.com/steveschale?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

JackW said:

Steve Schale, Florida election expert, indicates a big day for Dems in the state yesterday. Spike again in Hispanics including large increases in NPA's in Hispanic communities :

https://twitter.com/steveschale?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

Same in Vegas and North carolina.

An example of how bad British coverage of the US election can be...

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/us-election-2016-grey-vote-plumps-for-donald-trump-at-america-s-ground-zero-a3384986.html

I was reading the Evening Standard on the way home, and there was an report from Robert Moore of ITV News about the 14 Corridor in Florida.

"When you want to gauge the mood in this part of Florida, there is only one destination. The Villages is the largest retirement community in America; 120,000 elderly residents living in a gated city.

Slightly shockingly — I rather expected these gentle elderly folk to be in the centre of the political spectrum, worrying about their grandchildren’s future and the cost of medication — this is Trump territory."

So the US correspondent for ITV News, thought that the best way to gauge the views of swing Florida voters was to go to an almost exclusively white giant retirement village, that's famous for its republican leanings??!

Do journalists not do the slightest bit of research anymore? Or are they just to lazy to post proper reports?! It's the equivalent of an American reporter covering the UK election exclusively on the views of the residents of Frinton on Sea!

Mr. Hopkins, UKIP wouldn't win the GE. But they might actually break through and win seats.

AllyPally_Rob said:

An example of how bad British coverage of the US election can be...

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/us-election-2016-grey-vote-plumps-for-donald-trump-at-america-s-ground-zero-a3384986.html

I was reading the Evening Standard on the way home, and there was an report from Robert Moore of ITV News about the 14 Corridor in Florida.

"When you want to gauge the mood in this part of Florida, there is only one destination. The Villages is the largest retirement community in America; 120,000 elderly residents living in a gated city.

Slightly shockingly — I rather expected these gentle elderly folk to be in the centre of the political spectrum, worrying about their grandchildren’s future and the cost of medication — this is Trump territory."

So the US correspondent for ITV News, thought that the best way to gauge the views of swing Florida voters was to go to an almost exclusively white giant retirement village, that's famous for its republican leanings??!

Do journalists not do the slightest bit of research anymore? Or are they just to lazy to post proper reports?! It's the equivalent of an American reporter covering the UK election exclusively on the views of the residents of Frinton on Sea!

Jounalism is dead, too expensive much cheaper to buy from syndicated news outlets etc.

felix said:

Casino_Royale said:

Just heard it.. If Osborne had done a bit more of this prior to the referendum, he might now be in a better place.

A reminder of a huge talent lost to the party - for now....

LOL, PB joker of the year award for that corker

The witless (in both senses) boor is never far from the surface with Nige.

https://twitter.com/WikiGuido/status/793943307357454337

I absolutely love that speech by GO!

So funny

DaemonBarber said:

I absolutely love that speech by GO!

So funny

I guess he's found his new career.

TheScreamingEagles said:

I kept on telling you all George is a top bloke who is warm and witty.

It won't be long until you also agree with me that he's our next Prime Minister.

He's a real talent too, his strategic genius helped steer the Conservatives to two massive election victories, and he hit all his deficit targets too.

nunu said:

JackW said:

Steve Schale, Florida election expert, indicates a big day for Dems in the state yesterday. Spike again in Hispanics including large increases in NPA's in Hispanic communities :

https://twitter.com/steveschale?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

Same in Vegas and North carolina.

Another point of note is the gender divide in early voting. In Florida it is 55/45 to women and is up across the US. If women continue to be more engaged they will provide a boost to Clinton's numbers. In 2012 the divide was 52/48.

I can't possibly account for the fairer sex being more energized this election unless it is the charm of Mr.Trump. After all as Donald told us - "No one has more respect for women than me" ....

That must be it surely ....

TheScreamingEagles said:

I kept on telling you all George is a top bloke who is warm and witty.

It won't be long until you also agree with me that he's our next Prime Minister.

This is the route I could possibly see. Brexit goes middling, not well and not badly. Labour replace their leader with someone a bit more competent. Theresa May gets bogged down in domestic issues such as grammar schools which are not very popular on the Tory benches and in 2019 is 8-10 points down vs the new Labour leader. In the face of this she is replaced and George runs for the leadership with the backing of Gove with Boris as the other main contender. He wins.

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I kept on telling you all George is a top bloke who is warm and witty.

It won't be long until you also agree with me that he's our next Prime Minister.

This is the route I could possibly see. Brexit goes middling, not well and not badly. Labour replace their leader with someone a bit more competent. Theresa May gets bogged down in domestic issues such as grammar schools which are not very popular on the Tory benches and in 2019 is 8-10 points down vs the new Labour leader. In the face of this she is replaced and George runs for the leadership with the backing of Gove with Boris as the other main contender. He wins.

And then loses the general.

JackW said:

nunu said:

JackW said:

Steve Schale, Florida election expert, indicates a big day for Dems in the state yesterday. Spike again in Hispanics including large increases in NPA's in Hispanic communities :

https://twitter.com/steveschale?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

Same in Vegas and North carolina.

Another point of note is the gender divide in early voting. In Florida it is 55/45 to women and is up across the US. If women continue to be more engaged they will provide a boost to Clinton's numbers. In 2012 the divide was 52/48.

I can't possibly account for the fairer sex being more energized this election unless it is the charm of Mr.Trump. After all as Donald told us - "No one has more respect for women than me" ....

That must be it surely ....

Trump has really grabbed them....

TheScreamingEagles said:

I kept on telling you all George is a top bloke who is warm and witty.

It won't be long until you also agree with me that he's our next Prime Minister.

"wont be long" relative to heat death of the Universe?

JackW said:

nunu said:

JackW said:

Steve Schale, Florida election expert, indicates a big day for Dems in the state yesterday. Spike again in Hispanics including large increases in NPA's in Hispanic communities :

https://twitter.com/steveschale?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

Same in Vegas and North carolina.

Another point of note is the gender divide in early voting. In Florida it is 55/45 to women and is up across the US. If women continue to be more engaged they will provide a boost to Clinton's numbers. In 2012 the divide was 52/48.

I can't possibly account for the fairer sex being more energized this election unless it is the charm of Mr.Trump. After all as Donald told us - "No one has more respect for women than me" ....

That must be it surely ....

The Fifty Shades of Orange monster vote.

MonikerDiCanio said:

The Fifty Shades of Orange monster vote.

Ulster Unionists for Trump .... Who knew ?!? ....

HYUFD said:

JackW said:

Jon Ralston, Nevada election guru, updates and indicates a big day for Dems in early voting yesterday. Clark County firewall now up to 55k :

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

Trump is ahead in the latest Nevada poll as I posted earlier do not rely too much on early voting figures

The latest Nevada poll by field work date had Clinton ahead by 7 ( adjusted by 538 to plus 5 .)

JackW said:

nunu said:

JackW said:

Steve Schale, Florida election expert, indicates a big day for Dems in the state yesterday. Spike again in Hispanics including large increases in NPA's in Hispanic communities :

https://twitter.com/steveschale?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

Same in Vegas and North carolina.

Another point of note is the gender divide in early voting. In Florida it is 55/45 to women and is up across the US. If women continue to be more engaged they will provide a boost to Clinton's numbers. In 2012 the divide was 52/48.

I can't possibly account for the fairer sex being more energized this election unless it is the charm of Mr.Trump. After all as Donald told us - "No one has more respect for women than me" ....

That must be it surely ....

I believe you are comparing the early voting gender gap with the 2012 final gender gap. However in many states women tend to vote early more than men anyway, men tend to vote more on Election Day. Look at the graphs of early vote;

https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/the-fix/wp/2016/10/29/where-early-voting-hints-at-good-news-for-hillary-clinton-and-donald-trump/

Not much change since 2012.

Early voters are not a representative sample.

Some interesting US electoral maps:
http://brilliantmaps.com/if-only-x-voted/

Morris_Dancer said:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-37856705

"The money will help to provide accommodation, employment and skills training for women fleeing violence."

"Communities Secretary Sajid Javid said the boost will mean "no victim is turned away" from essential support."

Unless you're male, of course. Then you can sod off.

Come, come, the government is generously allocating resources to help those who commit the violence.

'Truss: Extra 2,100 prison officers to be deployed'

http://tinyurl.com/glme44a

Sounds like the government has lost.

Mr. Clipp, the electorate voted to leave the EU.

You could make a case for the Leave/Remain distinction being wrong (or, indeed, that a vote on Maastricht or Lisbon being better), but the vote has happened.

Mr. Divvie, a majority of domestic abuse victims are women, and perpetrators men. But a very large minority of victims are men (35-45% seems a common estimate) and perpetrators women [of course, happens in gay relationships too which will up the count on both sides].

Pretending male victims of domestic violence don't existence is a despicable approach.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. kle4, the process is being used as an excuse to frustrate and, if possible, deny the referendum result.

Yes it is. That doesn't mean the question of resolving what is the proper process is improper, because it isn't. As I said, the motivations have to be set aside when considering the legal question.

And it bears repeating, while it is politically unviable right now (and it is very hard to see how that would change in time), denying the referendum result is one outcome which would unquestionably be legal. It is therefore perfectly appropriate for people to try it, but if hundreds of MPs were to try it, or the Lords, I doubt it would end well for them.

tlg86 said:

Sounds like the government has lost.

They will be pleased - so much anger to harness, an appeal to win, a lot of people, as on here, confusing the motivations to deny Brexit with the much more abstract question of parliamentary and executive authority.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Divvie, a majority of domestic abuse victims are women, and perpetrators men. But a very large minority of victims are men (35-45% seems a common estimate) and perpetrators women [of course, happens in gay relationships too which will up the count on both sides].

Pretending male victims of domestic violence don't existence is a despicable approach.

Who is taking that approach?

TheWhiteRabbit said:

MaxPB said:

very strong services PMI figures out today, 54.5 vs 52.6 last month and expectations of 52.5, our industries seem to be giving Brexit a collective shrug of their shoulders right now.

54.5?!

Yup.

https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/d2b6f4d1be494f72b908da3af2a5cdf0

Plugging the figures into my own model we're looking at October growth of 0.2-0.3% for the month, quarterly growth should be around 0.7% if the figures hold. Would give annual growth of 2.3% for the year. I still don't see what kind of slowdown we might get in 2017, even after A50 is served the domestic economy is not going to change all that much.

peter_from_putney said:

JackW said:

Latest Fox News EC Map & Projection

Clinton 287 .. Trump 174 .. Toss-Up 77

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2016/presidential-race

If that projection is right and let's remember it's from Fox, then OGH's buy of Hillary at 302 looks low risk and sound since it would leave him needing only 15 ECVs of the 77 Toss-ups, i.e. less than 15%, to fully safeguard him from losing money on this spread bet.

My favourite GE15 spread bet: That there’ll be a CON margin on seats of fewer than 12
April 10th, 2015

As well as the straight total seats betting as seen above there’s another market I like – CON supremacy over LAB. The terms are

“A prediction on the total number of seats won by one party versus another party at the UK General Election. Note: This market can have a negative result and is a supremacy market where the favourite is listed first and the underdog second.”
My bet is a sell at 12 seats which has now edged down to 9. What this means is that I’m a winner if the eventual margin is fewer than 12 seats – the actual level of my return dependent on the final gap. So if LAB ended up 20 ahead I’d make 20+12=32 multiplied by the stake level.

If my prediction is wrong and the Tories, shall we say, end up 20 ahead then my losses would be 20 minus the bet level (12) multiplied by the stake level. So at, say, £20 a unit (which is not what I’ve bet) I’d lose £160.

Further proof Theresa May is a pound shop Gordon Brown, off the record briefings slagging off her team

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/794107810065874944

Given the currency surge just now I'm guessing the government lost their case.

MaxPB said:

Given the currency surge just now I'm guessing the government lost their case.

Would also be the effect of the services PMI figures.

Essexit said:

Those arguing that Leave was about parliamentary sovereignty are attacking a straw man. It was about democracy, among other things. It seems reasonable to say that even in a representative democracy the directly expressed will of the people should trump that of the legislature. This doesn't mean wanting the executive to have untrammelled power in general!

A possible outcome of Article 50 going before Parliament is that it will be voted down and that is why certain Remainers have discovered an eleventh-hour interest in parliamentary sovereignty.

We had years of no parliamentary votes on new rules that were adopted from the EC/EU. Amazing how certain Remainers were content for the past practices and yet now suddenly discover a concern about parliamentary soveriegnty.

MaxPB said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

MaxPB said:

very strong services PMI figures out today, 54.5 vs 52.6 last month and expectations of 52.5, our industries seem to be giving Brexit a collective shrug of their shoulders right now.

54.5?!

Yup.

https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/d2b6f4d1be494f72b908da3af2a5cdf0

Plugging the figures into my own model we're looking at October growth of 0.2-0.3% for the month, quarterly growth should be around 0.7% if the figures hold. Would give annual growth of 2.3% for the year. I still don't see what kind of slowdown we might get in 2017, even after A50 is served the domestic economy is not going to change all that much.

0.7% would be quite extraordinary, it would be better than had been hoped if Britain remained.

Sky News - Government lose A50 case.

Government HAS LOST the Article 50 case

Kudos to Alastair Meeks

What does this mean ?

Has to go to a parliamentary vote ?

Probably a good time to buy USD tbh if you're a currency trader. Will just delay things a bit - not stop them.

Huzzah for the rule of law.

Won't take long for the Government to confirm whether they're appealing or not.

So, say it gets through the Commons (far from guaranteed), and the Lords reject it (likely). What then? Parliament Act and another year of delay, or General Election?

BREXIT MEANS !!!!!!!!!

Courts interfere in politics. Bizarre.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Huzzah for the rule of law.

Subject to appeal of course.