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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Clinton drops 32 on the Electoral College Votes spread betting

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  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359
    RobD said:

    What makes someone socially liberal so we can check if we are or not?
    Still waiting on this definition...
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    SeanT said:

    Look, just LEAVE if you don't like it. Just go. Because this is my strategy, and everyone understands it. I simply hound people off the site. I drive them away, And if you don't like it, you know where the EXIT door is.
    If everyone had followed your instructions, there would only be you and Tyson's dog left on here. Some debating forum that would be.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,188

    As someone who is a part of the BAME community, I think I know a bit about what people within it think. I've talked politics with people from various walks of life, certainly not just those 22 and under. I've also talked about homophobia within the Black community (and other ethnic minority communities) on this site too. Although, given that most ethnic minorities voted IN, I doubt they take as much umbrage with EU immigration as the rest of the population.
    I think you'd be surprised at the large numbers of ethnic minority voters who opted for LEAVE.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,594
    edited November 2016
    tyson said:

    I wouldn't worry too much about Richard N's views.....he can be quite ridiculously pompous.....like now......

    By the way Apocalypse keep going....I love it when you wind up the usual brigade......
    Everyone needs to be challenged.

    Don't suggest rerunning the referendum though, that'd set everybody off



    LOL. You really can't deal with criticism of your POV can you?

    Believe it or not, he even apologizes to people sometimes. Not here, I expect.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359
    kle4 said:

    Everyone needs to be challenged.

    Don't suggest rerunning the referendum though, that'd set everybody off
    Unless it's the AV referendum....

  • glwglw Posts: 10,367
    Cookie said:

    Ha - yes, most odd.

    It's sort of worse as a quote, I mean we know there's a social media team doing this stuff, but they presumably thought that was a good bit rather than drivel.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,865
    kle4 said:

    Everyone needs to be challenged.

    Don't suggest rerunning the referendum though, that'd set everybody off Believe it or not, he even apologizes to people sometimes. Not here, I expect.
    The A50 judgement tomorrow should be enough for a minor conflagration, especially if the Govt loses..
  • tyson said:

    I wouldn't worry too much about Richard N's views.....he can be quite ridiculously pompous.....like now......

    By the way Apocalypse keep going....I love it when you wind up the usual brigade......
    Thank you tynson. PBers can't get everything their own way all the time....;)

    RE all those who responded to me on the 'socially liberal' post: dismissing concerns about sexism and racism, and going on about the 'PC Brigade and the 'liberal elite' is not the sign of people who are socially liberal. People who are socially liberal don't actually see the word 'liberal' as an insult. And secondly, they you know, care about racism and sexism.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited November 2016

    People like you don't get to decide how the BAME community see themselves.

    The BAME community does not really exist.

    There are lots of people who are BAME. They are not a community. In my experience people will self segregate around race and religion - even after all the white people are removed.

    Asian, Black, Muslim, Sikh, Hindu. Caribbean, African. etc etc
  • Cookie said:

    Sunil, even by this site's standards you are sui generis!
    Um, thanks (I think!)
  • Miss Apocalypse has spent a few posts denigrating PB as a whole, having been largely absent for weeks.

    Now whilst the traditional response is "you can collect your refund on the way out", the meaning is no different.
    I've been around, I've just not posted.
  • Cookie said:

    Are there any reliable stats on how different ethnicities voted in the referendum? ISTR ethnic minorities being reported as rather less keen on the EU than was expected.
    It's The Sunil wot won it!!!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359

    The A50 judgement tomorrow should be enough for a minor conflagration, especially if the Govt loses..
    Is it sad that part of me wants to pull an all nighter to find out what the outcome is? Unfortunately the timezone difference is even worse, 7 hours rather than 8 as our clocks go back this week rather than last week.
  • Mortimer said:

    I think you'd be surprised at the large numbers of ethnic minority voters who opted for LEAVE.
    It was quite a sizeable amount. It wasn't, however the majority which the point I was making.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,594
    edited November 2016

    No they do not. But as a member of the Brexit non-right (Political compass tells me I should be voting for Plaid Cymru, but I really think I'm more right than that, to be honest), the Brexit right monopolizing the Brexit debate is a real bugbear for me - all political discussion comes down to shouting the loudest and convincing people your way is the only way, and they are better at that than the Brexit non-right.

    But take heart - Theresa May is currently riding high and managing both the right and centre right, and that cannot last. The ructions on the right if she commits one way or the other definitively will be immense - you should see the bitterness and cries of traitor between Tory supporters when that happens.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,834

    I was thinking of the Brexit Right, which predominates on this site. I know left-wingers who voted Brexit, they don't see the world the way PBers do.
    Just scanning down this thread, I don't think more than around 25-35% of posts are from posters I could place in the 'Brexit right' category - and given the referendum result that's surely not too far from what you might expect. I certainly wouldn't say that the 'Brexit right' predominates.
  • chestnut said:

    The BAME community does not really exist.

    There are lots of people who are BAME. They are not a community. In my experience people will self segregate around race and religion - even after all the white people are removed.

    Asian, Black, Muslim, Sikh, Hindu. Caribbean, African. etc etc
    Presumably from the same script as 'there is no such thing as society'.
  • Thank you tynson. PBers can't get everything their own way all the time....;)

    RE all those who responded to me on the 'socially liberal' post: dismissing concerns about sexism and racism, and going on about the 'PC Brigade and the 'liberal elite' is not the sign of people who are socially liberal. People who are socially liberal don't actually see the word 'liberal' as an insult. And secondly, they you know, care about racism and sexism.
    And thirdly, they hate prejudice. Including prejudice against the millions of readers of the Daily Mail. Right? Or is your definition of 'liberal' quite spectacularly narrow-minded?
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    SeanT said:

    FFS, I'm JOKING,

    Me saying LEAVE THE SITE is hardly a good reason to leave the site, is it? Unless you are the snowflakiest snowflake in the Museum of Fragile Snowflakes.

    Especially when I'm clearly joshing, or just being a bit punchy after a blanket accusation of racism against all of PB.

    MEH! And PAH!

    I too was joking.

    You have told Tyson's dog to fuck off on several occasions.

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited November 2016

    Spot on, Mr. T. This site is really like the public bar in a decent pub full of all sorts of people and, at its best, several different conversations going on at the same time. This evening for example we have had the usual USA election chatter interspersed with economic data, the merits of Northern Ireland and, earlier, recipes for Christmas puddings, plus some offbeat views on what constitutes Lutheranism. Alas for once we have had nothing on engineering, cricket or trains.

    Goes off to consider which of SeanT's categories I fit into. Terrible drunk? Not really. Mad cat owner? Possibly I suppose but really none of them fit terribly well. Could we not have a new category of a mild-mannered, sort of elderly person who is a bit to the right on some issues and a bit to the left on others who likes cats (and dogs) and a drink, is a bit of an English nationalist but colour blind and who is jolly keen on engineering, quite likes watching cricket, cooking/eating well and playing computer games.
    Ultimately HL we are all in a minority of one :-).

    I write as a member of the metropolitan elite, despite living a quiet life in a suburb of an obscure English provincial city, supporting a party that will probably not see power during my remaining lifetime.

    PB needs its off topic conversations in order to build the bonds that keep tbe political disputes mostly civil.
  • Trump's chances of winning are up to 32.3% tonight, that an increase of approx 3% in the last few hours.
    Plus 538's State by State map is showing Florida with its highly important 29 ECVs as being red, well light pink actually, for the first time.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,594
    Pong said:

    OK. I'm gone.

    PB's loss.
    That's unfortunate.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,865
    RobD said:

    Is it sad that part of me wants to pull an all nighter to find out what the outcome is? Unfortunately the timezone difference is even worse, 7 hours rather than 8 as our clocks go back this week rather than last week.
    I'm at a funeral and memorial service tomorrow, from 1045 so will find out just beforehand then miss all the subsequent action.
  • SeanT said:

    What ARE you talking about. This is just about the only site where you can come, and announce yourself as Corbynite, BNP voter, feminazi, Thatcherite, Holocaust denier (within reason) Scot Nat, Cornish nationalist, terrible drunk, millionaire gay lawyer, quasi-Marxist, Nick Palmer ex MP, mad cat owner, Tory, shady businessman, insane train geek, and even ageing bald europhile Lib Dem, and you will be given a hearing, and a good discussion, until and unless you say something TRULY outrageous. Or you go on about Scottish subsamples.

    This is the most tolerant and generous of blogs. All can come and all can rant. And they really really do. I defy you to find a saner blog with a wider ranger of commenters.

    Insane train geek? Are you calling moi an insane train geek? :lol:
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Cookie said:

    Apologies Dr. Fox - I may have confused you with Big John Owls.
    Tut tut tut, muddling up the good Doctor with a hospital administrator (retd). Wars have been fought over less.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    Presumably from the same script as 'there is no such thing as society'.
    Presumably from a lifetime in Hackney, Tower Hamlets, Southwark.....

    Not Islington, mind.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359

    I'm at a funeral and memorial service tomorrow, from 1045 so will find out just beforehand then miss all the subsequent action.
    Saved forever in the hallowed PB archives.
  • And thirdly, they hate prejudice. Including prejudice against the millions of readers of the Daily Mail. Right? Or is your definition of 'liberal' quite spectacularly narrow-minded?
    I don't actually hate all DM readers. My grandad is one, and I don't hate him, even if I don't like his choice in newspaper. I made the point about DM readers to illustrate the hypocrisy on this site.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    I was thinking of the Brexit Right, which predominates on this site. I know left-wingers who voted Brexit, they don't see the world the way PBers do.
    There are lots of weird Labour Leavers on here - sinister left-nationalists. Believe me, you'd much rather have a night out with SeanT. I would anyway.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,834
    glw said:

    It's sort of worse as a quote, I mean we know there's a social media team doing this stuff, but they presumably thought that was a good bit rather than drivel.
    It reminds me of this: http://www.unnecessaryquotes.com/

    It implies that she's just reporting something that someone (herself) said, rather than implying she actually means it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359

    Trump's chances of winning are up to 32.3% tonight, that an increase of approx 3% in the last few hours.
    Plus 538's State by State map is showing Florida with its highly important 29 ECVs as being red, well light pink actually, for the first time.

    The Trump train inches towards its destination. Will it make it? Find out Nov 8th!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,594

    The A50 judgement tomorrow should be enough for a minor conflagration, especially if the Govt loses..
    Oh sh*t, I'm definitely off again then. As a prime candidate for Bremorse (were I not so vocal about going with leave, I've no doubt if it is a disaster I would claim in time that of course I voted remain) perhaps that explains my lack of concern should the court say A50 has to be triggered by the commons as a whole - it seems appropriate for something so momentous, even if people want parliament to not do it after all politically that hardly seems viable for Tories or Labour, etc etc - but I can smell the bitterness already should the government lose.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359
    kle4 said:

    Oh sh*t, I'm definitely off again then. As a prime candidate for Bremorse (were I not so vocal about going with leave, I've no doubt if it is a disaster I would claim in time that of course I voted remain) perhaps that explains my lack of concern should the court say A50 has to be triggered by the commons as a whole - it seems appropriate for something so momentous, even if people want parliament to not do it after all politically that hardly seems viable for Tories or Labour, etc etc - but I can smell the bitterness already should the government lose.
    The decision tomorrow is basically inconsequential. It will be appealed to the Supreme Court (what a terrible American name).
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    RobD said:

    The Trump train inches towards its destination. Will it make it? Find out Nov 8th!
    The Trump train seems unstoppable.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    chestnut said:

    The BAME community does not really exist.

    There are lots of people who are BAME. They are not a community. In my experience people will self segregate around race and religion - even after all the white people are removed.

    Asian, Black, Muslim, Sikh, Hindu. Caribbean, African. etc etc
    It really gets up my nose when people try to put people into pigeon holes and pretend that because some share one characteristic (e.g. skin colour) they must all think alike. The whole idea that there is a BAME community is a corrosive nonsense that needs to be driven out of polite discourse.

    People are people, individuals, different from to another and should be treated as such.
  • Jobabob said:

    There are lots of weird Labour Leavers on here - sinister left-nationalists. Believe me, you'd much rather have a night out with SeanT. I would anyway.
    A night out with a 40+ right-wing man?

    There are some under 30 people on this site (kl4, Morris Dancer I think?) I think they'd be good for a night out.
  • Pong said:

    OK. I'm gone.

    PB's loss.
    Pong - please don't leave ...... you're one of the best betting brains on the site. At least re-consider after sleeping on it.
  • chestnut said:

    Presumably from a lifetime in Hackney, Tower Hamlets, Southwark.....

    Not Islington, mind.
    I've lived in Watford since I was 10.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,834

    Ultimately HL we are all in a minority of one :-).

    I write as a member of the metropolitan elite, despite living a quiet life in a suburb of an obscure English provincial city, supporting a party that will probably not see power during my remaining lifetime.

    PB needs its off topic conversations in order to build the bonds that keep tbe political disputes mostly civil.
    I was thinking that today during the conversation about Christmas Dinner. It all got a bit tetchy here over the referendum because there was so much politics we were all so personally invested in, and the forum went off-topic much less. All a function of the rather odd year we're having, and it does us no harm to be reminded that most on here are genuinely nice people behind the political disagreements.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,594

    I write as a member of the metropolitan elite, despite living a quiet life in a suburb of an obscure English provincial city, supporting a party that will probably not see power during my remaining lifetime.

    Elite is a state of mind, doc. Like being a political outsider. Remember Jeb Bush, the outsider? All about one's attitude.

    I struggle though. I voted Leave, which is populist. But I don't care about immigration at all, which is elitist. I think I might be a elitism wannabe.
  • Presumably from the same script as 'there is no such thing as society'.
    I see you quoted it out of context:

    "They're casting their problem on society. And, you know, there is no such thing as society. There are individual men and women, and there are families. And no government can do anything except through people, and people must look to themselves first. It's our duty to look after ourselves and then, also to look after our neighbour. People have got the entitlements too much in mind, without the obligations, because there is no such thing as an entitlement unless someone has first met an obligation"
    - M. H. Thatcher, interview 23 September 1987
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    I've lived in Watford since I was 10.
    You have my sympathies.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited November 2016
    Also, Pong please stay on this site. SeanT telling people to 'fuck off' is just SeanT being SeanT. That's probably polite by his standards, if anything.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    It really gets up my nose when people try to put people into pigeon holes and pretend that because some share one characteristic (e.g. skin colour) they must all think alike. The whole idea that there is a BAME community is a corrosive nonsense that needs to be driven out of polite discourse.

    People are people, individuals, different from to another and should be treated as such.
    Let us not forget Ed Miliband asking a Sikh man whether he will be ensuring the Sikh vote turns out for Labour. I really do not understand how people think like that. Assigning a label and category to everyone.
  • I've lived in Watford since I was 10.
    Likke watford,, wouldnt live there its a shit hole. But liked that club called beavers.
  • chestnut said:

    You have my sympathies.
    It's not so bad. There are worse places to live....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,594
    edited November 2016


    A night out with a 40+ right-wing man?

    There are some under 30 people on this site (kl4, Morris Dancer I think?) I think they'd be good for a night out.
    Were it not already apparent from how I spend a lot of my online time, I regret to say I am a right boring sod on a night out. Maybe I should start drinking.

    Sadly I'm also only under 30 for another month, that'll harm PBs demographic stats.

    Night all.
  • I see you quoted it out of context:

    "They're casting their problem on society. And, you know, there is no such thing as society. There are individual men and women, and there are families. And no government can do anything except through people, and people must look to themselves first. It's our duty to look after ourselves and then, also to look after our neighbour. People have got the entitlements too much in mind, without the obligations, because there is no such thing as an entitlement unless someone has first met an obligation"
    - M. H. Thatcher, interview 23 September 1987
    Huh?

    She basically said there is no such thing as society, only individuals.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235


    A night out with a 40+ right-wing man?

    There are some under 30 people on this site (kl4, Morris Dancer I think?) I think they'd be good for a night out.

    Morris is the life of the party :)
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    RobD said:

    Is it sad that part of me wants to pull an all nighter to find out what the outcome is? Unfortunately the timezone difference is even worse, 7 hours rather than 8 as our clocks go back this week rather than last week.
    First time I realised you were US based Rob.

    By the way, loved the AV gag about Hillary's emails - couldn't find your post again to praise.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359
    kle4 said:

    Were it not already apparent from how I spend a lot of my online time, I regret to say I am a right boring sod on a night out. Maybe I should start drinking.

    Sadly I'm also only under 30 for another month, that'll harm PBs demographic stats.

    Night all.
    I gave up my under-30 club membership badge a few months ago.. sad days.
  • RobD said:

    The Trump train inches towards its destination. Will it make it? Find out Nov 8th!
    Should you find out on Nov 8th, please would you let me know ..... I'll make it worth your while!
  • NoEasyDay said:

    Likke watford,, wouldnt live there its a shit hole. But liked that club called beavers.
    Where do you live? Presumably somewhere nice and upmarket?
  • ThrakThrak Posts: 494
    edited November 2016
    Whilst many posters are not particularly extreme there are maybe ten or so quite regular ones from the far right, I've not noticed but there may be the odd one from the anti-semite far left too. It took ages for an open neo-nazi to be banned, so it's a rare place where you can come into contact with these people for an extended period of time. It's useful to see what they think and at least on the internet you don't have to pretend you have anything but utter contempt for them.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,594
    RobD said:

    The decision tomorrow is basically inconsequential. It will be appealed to the Supreme Court (what a terrible American name).
    Someone will link a 19th century act proposing to set up a supreme court now I imagine, though personally i split the difference and in my head still call them Law Lords, rather than Supreme COurt Justices, as it sounds cooler.
  • It's not so bad. There are worse places to live....
    Indeed there are are Slough, is bar bodegas still there ?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359

    Should you find out on Nov 8th, please would you let me know ..... I'll make it worth your while!
    LOL. Good point ;)
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,920
    edited November 2016

    Trump's chances of winning are up to 32.3% tonight, that an increase of approx 3% in the last few hours.

    Hmm. I suspect there has been some kind of glitch, as the most recent update of a single poll appears to have produced almost half that increase. It's difficult to see why it should have produced any change at all, as it is a small-sample-size poll (rated B-) for Missouri showing a Trump lead that's absolutely in line with other recent polls for that state.

    In contrast, the previous update, which included five national polls by Ipsos (rated A-) with a total sample size of about 6,500 and an average Clinton lead of more than 6%, reduced Trump's chances by just 0.2%!.

  • A night out with a 40+ right-wing man?

    There are some under 30 people on this site (kl4, Morris Dancer I think?) I think they'd be good for a night out.
    I'm 41 in a couple of weeks

    *depressed face*
  • Pulpstar said:

    Morris is the life of the party :)
    He's always come across as a nice guy on this site. I've never heard him be outright critical of whole groups of people either. Although I can't say I'm really an F1 fan. Now that whole sport bores me....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359
    619 said:

    twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/793943398491111424

    Oh no, a criminal supported one candidate in an election!!

    I'm surprised this isn't reported more often. "John Doe, a registered democrat/republican, was convicted of murder today".


    Seriously....
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Ultimately HL we are all in a minority of one :-).

    I write as a member of the metropolitan elite, despite living a quiet life in a suburb of an obscure English provincial city, supporting a party that will probably not see power during my remaining lifetime.

    PB needs its off topic conversations in order to build the bonds that keep tbe political disputes mostly civil.
    Quite so, Dr Sox. I have to say I have never thought of you as a member of the metropolitan elite, though.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359

    He's always come across as a nice guy on this site. I've never heard him be outright critical of whole groups of people either. Although I can't say I'm really an F1 fan. Now that whole sport bores me....
    Don't forget to compliment him on his trebuchet.... ;)
  • Huh?

    She basically said there is no such thing as society, only individuals.
    Read the first sentence.
  • NoEasyDay said:

    Indeed there are are Slough, is bar bodegas still there ?
    Tbh Harlesden is a pretty 'meh' area. Tbh, much of Brent (where my family on my mum's side lives) isn't really that great.
  • Quite so, Dr Sox. I have to say I have never thought of you as a member of the metropolitan elite, though.
    Bakerloo elite? Piccadilly elite?
  • RobD said:

    Don't forget to compliment him on his trebuchet.... ;)
    I had to google that - 'trebuchet'. Not surprised an F1 fan has an engine.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359



    PB needs its off topic conversations in order to build the bonds that keep tbe political disputes mostly civil.

    I think this is probably why I have less time for those who post endless tweets without really talking about things other than politics.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359

    I had to google that - 'trebuchet'. Not surprised an F1 fan has an engine.
    Don't mention you had to google the word trebuchet. That would end the evening. :p
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited November 2016

    I'm 41 in a couple of weeks

    *depressed face*

    You're not as old as my mum (or dad) so then there's that.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited November 2016

    Huh?

    She basically said there is no such thing as society, only individuals.

    It is so tedious when people misrepresent what she said. She was talking about the tendency to blame 'society', pointing out that there's no such thing as 'society' in the abstract; society is the collective construct of all of us, and it is everyone's collective responsibility to - for example - deal with prejudice or crime.

    You really ought to read the whole piece with a fresh mind. If you are incapable of that, how about focussing on this bit of the quoted passage: it's our duty to look after ourselves and then, also to look after our neighbour.?
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    RobD said:

    The Trump train inches towards its destination. Will it make it? Find out Nov 8th!
    Probably because I have been blitzed by Plato every other minute for the last three days, I now instinctively expect Trumpton to win. But your post earlier was sound: how the devil does he get to 270? NV and CO look bad for him, which leaves him with PA or a very unlikely Midwest route. PA has not returned a Republican for time. I'm happy enough with my position - I win big on Trump and decently on the narrow Hillary victory. I lose on HC 300+. I hope this latest rumpus will shift the odds, and I can then cover HC 300+ if she does a Cameron 2015.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359
    Jobabob said:

    Probably because I have been blitzed by Plato every other minute for the last three days, I now instinctively expect Trumpton to win. But your post earlier was sound: how the devil does he get to 270? NV and CO look bad for him, which leaves him with PA or a very unlikely Midwest route. PA has not returned a Republican for time. I'm happy enough with my position - I win big on Trump and decently on the narrow Hillary victory. I lose on HC 300+. I hope this latest rumpus will shift the odds, and I can then cover HC 300+ if she does a Cameron 2015.
    My 260 included a Trump NV, and he'd have to win FL, OH, IA, NC too. He needs one other state but nothing looks promising for him at the moment.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,834
    SeanT said:

    Also, my telling Pong to fuck off the site was a sardonic reference to my personal inability to drive anyone off the site, unless they actually want to leave. Only Mike bans or blocks (and he has yellow carded me on occasions, for a time, when I've been OTT).

    The ONLY person I might have "hounded off the site" is tim, but that's after he was exceptionally nasty for quite a while to several posters, and then he made personal remarks about my real life, so I responded in kind, given that his bogus and then real identity had already been exposed by others.

    And quite frankly I'd like to see tim back on the site. He was an asset. His waspish wit is missed, on the PB Left.
    Ooh, what was Tim's real identity? He wasn't a farmer from Cheshire then? All seemed rather unlikely.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    AndyJS said:
    Unstoppable
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Quite so, Dr Sox. I have to say I have never thought of you as a member of the metropolitan elite, though.
    I meant it ironically, as I have been called that a number of times, not least for pointing out that the WWC is more diverse in its views on political and social issues than some on here would allow.

    The other thing that keeps this place more civil than most internet sites is the betting. I have made some of my bigger profits here betting against my own favoured outcomes, and indeed will be in profit if Trump wins as that is where the value has been.

    I do wonder if some value is returning to Clinton, and am tempted to go fossicking for it tommorow.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Chris said:

    "Tonight I’ve bought Clinton ECVs at 302 because I think that the polling and markets have over reacted to Friday’s FBI move."

    I think it is worth reflecting that Clinton's estimated vote percentage (538, polls only) has dropped by precisely 1% since the FBI intervention, to 48.6%. We are five days on from that now, and Nate Silver reckoned the model would be showing the full effect after 5-7 days. I doubt the FBI will succeed in delivering much more than that 1% to the Trump cause.

    Before the FBI intervention, Clinton's rating had dropped by just 0.2% from its peak of 49.8% at around the time of the third debate. The narrowing of the race during that period was almost entirely due to a 1% increase in Trump's rating, which coincided with a 1% decrease in Gary Johnson's. Probably in retrospect that shouldn't have been unexpected, but with Johnson now down to a little more than half his peak, I wonder whether there is much more there for Trump to squeeze.

    Clinton's lead, according to 538, now stands at 3.5%. I wonder if it's likely to drop much below that by polling day. If it doesn't, we are back to Trump needing a large systematic error in the polls (albeit one only half as big as he would have needed at the height of Clinton's dominance).

    Good post. Solid.
  • I see you quoted it out of context:

    "They're casting their problem on society. And, you know, there is no such thing as society. There are individual men and women, and there are families. And no government can do anything except through people, and people must look to themselves first. It's our duty to look after ourselves and then, also to look after our neighbour. People have got the entitlements too much in mind, without the obligations, because there is no such thing as an entitlement unless someone has first met an obligation"
    - M. H. Thatcher, interview 23 September 1987
    Brilliant quote.
  • @SeanT

    Tim? He's the guy who hates Osborne (more so than everyone else on this site who hates Osborne) right? Yeah, I've heard posters mention he was bullying some of the female posters on here, like Plato.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    RobD said:

    My 260 included a Trump NV, and he'd have to win FL, OH, IA, NC too. He needs one other state but nothing looks promising for him at the moment.
    Fox has him leading in Virginia tonight
  • glwglw Posts: 10,367

    I see you quoted it out of context:

    "They're casting their problem on society. And, you know, there is no such thing as society. There are individual men and women, and there are families. And no government can do anything except through people, and people must look to themselves first. It's our duty to look after ourselves and then, also to look after our neighbour. People have got the entitlements too much in mind, without the obligations, because there is no such thing as an entitlement unless someone has first met an obligation"
    - M. H. Thatcher, interview 23 September 1987
    Well done Sunil, people thinking they have made a clever point with that famous quote is one of my bugbears. I used to think Thatcher had said something awful, but when I read the full article I realised that Thatcher hadn't meant what her foes would like us to think she meant, and she was making a philosophical point that I actually agreed with. I suspect most people would agree with it if they ever got to read the full interview.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Bakerloo elite? Piccadilly elite?
    Thank you, Dr. Prasannan. That really made me laugh.

    Maybe in the circumstances District Elite might be the most appropriate.

    By the way, how does it feel to be referenced by SeanT as an "Insane train Geek"?
  • SeanT said:

    lol. He was a quasi-retired wine merchant married to a Jewish Liverpudlian doctor. Now lives abroad, but provides amusing, acidic commentary on UK Labour politics on Twitter
    You think he really left PB...
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    MP_SE said:
    Not quite, 2 out of 3 chances of being stopped.

    That is what 33% chance means.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884
    I see betting as maybe an activity that attracts libertarian types. Although my assessment is that Lib-Demy kind of people are better at it. They've got that sense of detachment and fatalism (necessary for betting and for being a Lib Dem).
  • SeanT said:

    lol. He was a quasi-retired wine merchant married to a Jewish Liverpudlian doctor. Now lives abroad, but provides amusing, acidic commentary on UK Labour politics on Twitter

    I think it's fair to say that he's not entirely enthused by the Corbyn and McDonnell takeover of the Labour Party.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    Chris said:

    "Tonight I’ve bought Clinton ECVs at 302 because I think that the polling and markets have over reacted to Friday’s FBI move."

    I think it is worth reflecting that Clinton's estimated vote percentage (538, polls only) has dropped by precisely 1% since the FBI intervention, to 48.6%. We are five days on from that now, and Nate Silver reckoned the model would be showing the full effect after 5-7 days. I doubt the FBI will succeed in delivering much more than that 1% to the Trump cause.

    Before the FBI intervention, Clinton's rating had dropped by just 0.2% from its peak of 49.8% at around the time of the third debate. The narrowing of the race during that period was almost entirely due to a 1% increase in Trump's rating, which coincided with a 1% decrease in Gary Johnson's. Probably in retrospect that shouldn't have been unexpected, but with Johnson now down to a little more than half his peak, I wonder whether there is much more there for Trump to squeeze.

    Clinton's lead, according to 538, now stands at 3.5%. I wonder if it's likely to drop much below that by polling day. If it doesn't, we are back to Trump needing a large systematic error in the polls (albeit one only half as big as he would have needed at the height of Clinton's dominance).

    RCP has Clinton's lead down to 1.9%
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,834
    SeanT said:

    lol. He was a quasi-retired wine merchant married to a Jewish Liverpudlian doctor. Now lives abroad, but provides amusing, acidic commentary on UK Labour politics on Twitter
    Ha - well that explains how he had so much time to post.
    Though I often marvel at how much time many on here with apparently busy and presumably time-consuming jobs find time to post so much.
  • AndyJS said:
    Sounds worth a few bob on Trump.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,526
    edited November 2016

    I think it's fair to say that he's not entirely enthused by the Corbyn and McDonnell takeover of the Labour Party.
    Not exactly a shock, given he is Tony Blair's biggest fan and spent years before infecting PB fighting with the Socialist Worker types on other internet forums and talk radio.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    SeanT said:

    Well, he is called Trotsky.
    We are short of revolutionary communists on the site - note how they didn't make your otherwise comprehensive list, up-thread. A poor decision to dismiss the canine.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359
    HYUFD said:

    Fox has him leading in Virginia tonight
    I'll do a proverbial Ashdown if that happens.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    It really gets up my nose when people try to put people into pigeon holes and pretend that because some share one characteristic (e.g. skin colour) they must all think alike. The whole idea that there is a BAME community is a corrosive nonsense that needs to be driven out of polite discourse.

    People are people, individuals, different from to another and should be treated as such.
    From the same reactionary tools who think "Britishness" can be bottled and used to ward off Europeans and/or Muslims, that's pretty fucking funny.
  • Cookie said:

    Ha - well that explains how he had so much time to post.
    Though I often marvel at how much time many on here with apparently busy and presumably time-consuming jobs find time to post so much.
    Which bit of the farmy farm story was believable? I mean there are just so many Asian gentleman farmers in the North West of England.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited November 2016

    Thank you, Dr. Prasannan. That really made me laugh.

    Maybe in the circumstances District Elite might be the most appropriate.

    By the way, how does it feel to be referenced by SeanT as an "Insane train Geek"?
    Oi! Train geeks are in the majority here, though obviously Sunil holds the yellow jersey.
  • FWIW Iain Dale on LBC this evening said he has been told privately by various US sources that Hillary has lost .
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,855

    Not exactly a shock, given he is Tony Blair's biggest fan and spent years before infecting PB fighting with the Socialist Worker types on other internet forums and talk radio.
    Tony Blair's biggest fan was surely Adrian Harper.
This discussion has been closed.