politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The PB Polling Matters TV Show & Podcast: Brexit, Zac’s by-ele

System · October 2016

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The PB Polling Matters TV Show & Podcast: Brexit, Zac’s by-election, UKIP’s leadership and whether LAB has a polling floor

A huge amount has happened in UK politics since the last show two weeks ago and joining Keiran Pedley (@KeiranPedley) are Asa Bennett (@AsaBenn) of the Telegraph and Leo Barasi (@leobarasi) of noiseofthecrowd.com

Read the full story here

TheScreamingEagles · October 2016

Another interesting tv show.

And I see West Ham and Chelsea fans are disgracing themselves, what a terrible legacy for the Olympic Stadium.

Shame on West Ham

TheWhiteRabbit · October 2016

tyson said:

foxinsoxuk said:
The health economics of expensive biological drugs are quite complex. So for example the monoclonal antibodies used as disease modifying agents for rheumatoid have (expensively) transformed a crippling deforming disease into one that allows someone to keep working. I just do not see the wrecked bodies that were all too common 25 years ago.

The cost of the drug (including the logistics and human cost of regular infusions and monitoring) vs the cost to the individual, family and society (particularly the impact on carers and social care) relies on a lot of assumptions and hidden costs, as well as hidden benefits.

My money saving wheeze for the NHS : compulsory sterilisation of all cousanguinous marriages who wish UK residence. A little totalitarian perhaps, but would save a lot of misery as well as money.
We have a beautiful little family home (my wife's side) in the remote Appenines. I mean remote...wolves, full on night sky, and lots of very, very, very closely related Italians living in the next village. And virtually every single family is blighted by congenital diseases.... not many of the children are left unscathed.

But you could add to your list extreme premature live births....not much gain for a considerable amount of pain.....

It's only by doing that that we can get better at it, though.

kle4 · October 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:
Another interesting tv show.

And I see West Ham and Chelsea fans are disgracing themselves, what a terrible legacy for the Olympic Stadium.

Shame on West Ham

Well, it's not like they are paying anything worth a damn for the stadium, no wonder they are not respecting it.

TheScreamingEagles · October 2016

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Another interesting tv show.

And I see West Ham and Chelsea fans are disgracing themselves, what a terrible legacy for the Olympic Stadium.

Shame on West Ham
Well, it's not like they are paying anything worth a damn for the stadium, no wonder they are not respecting it.

Tax payer funded hooliganism.

kle4 · October 2016

Asa thinks immigration is where May will compromise. While her performance as Home Secretary might support that, and I would be happy with a compromise on it, it seems like politically it is much better for her not to on that point.

Tykejohnno · October 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Another interesting tv show.

And I see West Ham and Chelsea fans are disgracing themselves, what a terrible legacy for the Olympic Stadium.

Shame on West Ham
Well, it's not like they are paying anything worth a damn for the stadium, no wonder they are not respecting it.
Tax payer funded hooliganism.

I thought you might have jumped on bloody leave plebs,result from referendum ;-)

TheScreamingEagles · October 2016

kle4 said:
Asa thinks immigration is where May will compromise. While her performance as Home Secretary might support that, and I would be happy with a compromise on it, it seems like politically it is much better for her not to on that point.

If she does, she needs to rename 'Hard Brexit' as 'Economic Ruin'

And she needs one of at least Fox and David to recant and support her.

foxinsoxuk · October 2016

TheWhiteRabbit said:

tyson said:

foxinsoxuk said:
The health economics of expensive biological drugs are quite complex. So for example the monoclonal antibodies used as disease modifying agents for rheumatoid have (expensively) transformed a crippling deforming disease into one that allows someone to keep working. I just do not see the wrecked bodies that were all too common 25 years ago.

The cost of the drug (including the logistics and human cost of regular infusions and monitoring) vs the cost to the individual, family and society (particularly the impact on carers and social care) relies on a lot of assumptions and hidden costs, as well as hidden benefits.

My money saving wheeze for the NHS : compulsory sterilisation of all cousanguinous marriages who wish UK residence. A little totalitarian perhaps, but would save a lot of misery as well as money.
We have a beautiful little family home (my wife's side) in the remote Appenines. I mean remote...wolves, full on night sky, and lots of very, very, very closely related Italians living in the next village. And virtually every single family is blighted by congenital diseases.... not many of the children are left unscathed.

But you could add to your list extreme premature live births....not much gain for a considerable amount of pain.....
It's only by doing that that we can get better at it, though.

There is concern about sub 25 week prem babies. Severe morbidity is nearly universal for these and unlike older prems the rates of survival are not seeming to get better. We are really at the limits of viability, and do need to consider whether attempted resucitation is appropriate.

http://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapediatrics/fullarticle/2091623

kle4 · October 2016

Richmond 'deceptively unthreatening' for the government. A good way of describing it.

Sunil_Prasannan · October 2016

Watching The Imitation Game on Film 4

tyson · October 2016

TheWhiteRabbit said:

tyson said:

foxinsoxuk said:
The health economics of expensive biological drugs are quite complex. So for example the monoclonal antibodies used as disease modifying agents for rheumatoid have (expensively) transformed a crippling deforming disease into one that allows someone to keep working. I just do not see the wrecked bodies that were all too common 25 years ago.

The cost of the drug (including the logistics and human cost of regular infusions and monitoring) vs the cost to the individual, family and society (particularly the impact on carers and social care) relies on a lot of assumptions and hidden costs, as well as hidden benefits.

My money saving wheeze for the NHS : compulsory sterilisation of all cousanguinous marriages who wish UK residence. A little totalitarian perhaps, but would save a lot of misery as well as money.
We have a beautiful little family home (my wife's side) in the remote Appenines. I mean remote...wolves, full on night sky, and lots of very, very, very closely related Italians living in the next village. And virtually every single family is blighted by congenital diseases.... not many of the children are left unscathed.

But you could add to your list extreme premature live births....not much gain for a considerable amount of pain.....
It's only by doing that that we can get better at it, though.

If I was the parent of a profoundly disabled child......incontinent, blind, profoundly enfeebled, unable to eat independently..... who was miraculously saved at the age of 24 weeks or so...I doubt I would share your optimism.

TheWhiteRabbit · October 2016

tyson said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

tyson said:

foxinsoxuk said:
The health economics of expensive biological drugs are quite complex. So for example the monoclonal antibodies used as disease modifying agents for rheumatoid have (expensively) transformed a crippling deforming disease into one that allows someone to keep working. I just do not see the wrecked bodies that were all too common 25 years ago.

The cost of the drug (including the logistics and human cost of regular infusions and monitoring) vs the cost to the individual, family and society (particularly the impact on carers and social care) relies on a lot of assumptions and hidden costs, as well as hidden benefits.

My money saving wheeze for the NHS : compulsory sterilisation of all cousanguinous marriages who wish UK residence. A little totalitarian perhaps, but would save a lot of misery as well as money.
We have a beautiful little family home (my wife's side) in the remote Appenines. I mean remote...wolves, full on night sky, and lots of very, very, very closely related Italians living in the next village. And virtually every single family is blighted by congenital diseases.... not many of the children are left unscathed.

But you could add to your list extreme premature live births....not much gain for a considerable amount of pain.....
It's only by doing that that we can get better at it, though.
If I was the parent of a profoundly disabled child......incontinent, blind, profoundly enfeebled, unable to eat independently..... who was miraculously saved at the age of 24 weeks or so...I doubt I would share your optimism.

I doubt I'd share it either. Difficult decisions and all that.

@foxinsoxuk 's link is pretty interesting. Maybe for now you are right.

HYUFD · October 2016

kle4 said:
Asa thinks immigration is where May will compromise. While her performance as Home Secretary might support that, and I would be happy with a compromise on it, it seems like politically it is much better for her not to on that point.

She will almost certainly require a job offer to come to the uk rather than a points system, if that counts as a compromise
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3775069/No-job-t-Britain-s-blueprint-curb-EU-migrants-post-Brexit-revealed-rigorous-points-based-system.html

kle4 · October 2016

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:
Asa thinks immigration is where May will compromise. While her performance as Home Secretary might support that, and I would be happy with a compromise on it, it seems like politically it is much better for her not to on that point.
She will almost certainly require a job offer to come to the uk rather than a points system, if that counts as a compromise
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3775069/No-job-t-Britain-s-blueprint-curb-EU-migrants-post-Brexit-revealed-rigorous-points-based-system.html

I know fellow Leavers who literally want every Polish person to be told to leave, obviously for such extremes anything will be a compromise that will disappoint, I guess it'll be down to how much will she be able to say she can reduce immigration - she won't want to pin it down precisely, we know what difficulty that can lead to, but most people want immigration down quite a bit, they need to be confident anything proposed will manage that.

AnneJGP · October 2016

foxinsoxuk said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

tyson said:

foxinsoxuk said:
The health economics of expensive biological drugs are quite complex. So for example the monoclonal antibodies used as disease modifying agents for rheumatoid have (expensively) transformed a crippling deforming disease into one that allows someone to keep working. I just do not see the wrecked bodies that were all too common 25 years ago.

The cost of the drug (including the logistics and human cost of regular infusions and monitoring) vs the cost to the individual, family and society (particularly the impact on carers and social care) relies on a lot of assumptions and hidden costs, as well as hidden benefits.

My money saving wheeze for the NHS : compulsory sterilisation of all cousanguinous marriages who wish UK residence. A little totalitarian perhaps, but would save a lot of misery as well as money.
We have a beautiful little family home (my wife's side) in the remote Appenines. I mean remote...wolves, full on night sky, and lots of very, very, very closely related Italians living in the next village. And virtually every single family is blighted by congenital diseases.... not many of the children are left unscathed.

But you could add to your list extreme premature live births....not much gain for a considerable amount of pain.....
It's only by doing that that we can get better at it, though.
There is concern about sub 25 week prem babies. Severe morbidity is nearly universal for these and unlike older prems the rates of survival are not seeming to get better. We are really at the limits of viability, and do need to consider whether attempted resucitation is appropriate.

http://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapediatrics/fullarticle/2091623

Only a few days ago we had a discussion of very late-term abortion.

Kill the ones who could easily survive & fight for the lives of the ones who have almost no chance.

Ironic, really, isn't it? Life is indeed a lottery.

Good evening, everyone - and goodnight, for I am off to bed.

kle4 · October 2016

I still think Labour cannot fall below 25%, despite Leo's argument. UKIP and LD need to do a lot better before I could believe that.

Big_G_NorthWales · October 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:
Asa thinks immigration is where May will compromise. While her performance as Home Secretary might support that, and I would be happy with a compromise on it, it seems like politically it is much better for her not to on that point.
If she does, she needs to rename 'Hard Brexit' as 'Economic Ruin'

And she needs one of at least Fox and David to recant and support her.

Thought David had resigned and left the party. Their is a Davis as head of Brexit

Roger · October 2016

Hi Tyson. I was near your neck of the woods a couple of weeks ago- Vinci then onto Siena and Cortona.......

When you thought it couldn't get worse (sorry if it's been posted)

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-will-he-win-us-presidential-election-2016-hillary-clinton-a7380621.html

Jobabob · October 2016

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:
Asa thinks immigration is where May will compromise. While her performance as Home Secretary might support that, and I would be happy with a compromise on it, it seems like politically it is much better for her not to on that point.
If she does, she needs to rename 'Hard Brexit' as 'Economic Ruin'

And she needs one of at least Fox and David to recant and support her.
Thought David had resigned and left the party. Their is a Davis as head of Brexit

There is a rule of physics that dictates that those who pick others up on typos will suffer a similar fate themself!

Black_Rook · October 2016

kle4 said:
Asa thinks immigration is where May will compromise. While her performance as Home Secretary might support that, and I would be happy with a compromise on it, it seems like politically it is much better for her not to on that point.

I think May could actually get away with it *IF* she could secure agreement to control low-skilled labour, in exchange for no restrictions on higher-wage workers with job offers. But the people she's negotiating with aren't in the mood for compromise. Firstly, if they budge on their cherished principles then it is likely to set off all kinds of demands from other quarters. Second, and more to the point, the UK is a convenient safety valve for problems elsewhere: for less well-off Eastern states, the British job market is a shortcut to greater prosperity through remittances, and for failing Southern Eurozone economies with catastrophic rates of youth unemployment it's one of the places where they can get rid of their excess, jobless twentysomethings.

If the UK regains control of the borders then it makes life harder for everyone else. Poorer and weaker states can't export their poverty and unemployment away, and wealthier ones like the Netherlands and Germany are liable to have to accommodate more migration than before. Thus, any talk of compromises appears moot: the EU might, conceivably be willing to bargain if we agreed to swallow the whole EFTA/EEA package, including total freedom of movement, although I have my doubts even of that - but the only likely alternative seems to be quite a limited agreement. I don't see how the UK is likely to get some kind of broad-based settlement on continuing seamless access to the single market if it won't give the other member states the freedom to dump as much of their excess labour here as they like.

Jobabob · October 2016

Tykejohnno said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Another interesting tv show.

And I see West Ham and Chelsea fans are disgracing themselves, what a terrible legacy for the Olympic Stadium.

Shame on West Ham
Well, it's not like they are paying anything worth a damn for the stadium, no wonder they are not respecting it.
Tax payer funded hooliganism.
I thought you might have jumped on bloody leave plebs,result from referendum ;-)

West Ham vs Chelsea

Leave on Leave violence ;-)

HYUFD · October 2016

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:
Asa thinks immigration is where May will compromise. While her performance as Home Secretary might support that, and I would be happy with a compromise on it, it seems like politically it is much better for her not to on that point.
She will almost certainly require a job offer to come to the uk rather than a points system, if that counts as a compromise
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3775069/No-job-t-Britain-s-blueprint-curb-EU-migrants-post-Brexit-revealed-rigorous-points-based-system.html
I know fellow Leavers who literally want every Polish person to be told to leave, obviously for such extremes anything will be a compromise that will disappoint, I guess it'll be down to how much will she be able to say she can reduce immigration - she won't want to pin it down precisely, we know what difficulty that can lead to, but most people want immigration down quite a bit, they need to be confident anything proposed will manage that.

A small minority want migrants to leave and effectively end all immigration but even most of those who want immigration controlled do not want that. Her argument is requiring a job offer is more rigorous and effective than a points system, we shall see. As for a trade agreement, May will propose a job offer requirement and agree any trade deal the EU are willing to do based on that, if they refuse she will just say she could not offer any more and go to WTO terms for the time being

tyson · October 2016

foxinsoxuk said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

tyson said:

foxinsoxuk said:
The health economics of expensive biological drugs are quite complex. So for example the monoclonal antibodies used as disease modifying agents for rheumatoid have (expensively) transformed a crippling deforming disease into one that allows someone to keep working. I just do not see the wrecked bodies that were all too common 25 years ago.

The cost of the drug (including the logistics and human cost of regular infusions and monitoring) vs the cost to the individual, family and society (particularly the impact on carers and social care) relies on a lot of assumptions and hidden costs, as well as hidden benefits.

My money saving wheeze for the NHS : compulsory sterilisation of all cousanguinous marriages who wish UK residence. A little totalitarian perhaps, but would save a lot of misery as well as money.
We have a beautiful little family home (my wife's side) in the remote Appenines. I mean remote...wolves, full on night sky, and lots of very, very, very closely related Italians living in the next village. And virtually every single family is blighted by congenital diseases.... not many of the children are left unscathed.

But you could add to your list extreme premature live births....not much gain for a considerable amount of pain.....
It's only by doing that that we can get better at it, though.
There is concern about sub 25 week prem babies. Severe morbidity is nearly universal for these and unlike older prems the rates of survival are not seeming to get better. We are really at the limits of viability, and do need to consider whether attempted resucitation is appropriate.

http://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapediatrics/fullarticle/2091623

There is an a tsunami that is going to hit advanced healthcare...technology and prevention. People will be responsible for tracking their own conditions probably though their smart phone...BP, diabetes, cholesterol etc.... People who do not comply with preventative treatments...smoking, obesity, exercise, drinking etc....will be denied treatments.

Almost/ if not all surgery will be done remotely by surgeons working on computers.

We'll obviously have local clinics to give the oldies that injection with some nice music and a last hit of opiates to bring a smile to one's face.

In thirty years time the whole complexion of health will be fundamentally changed. I doubt hospitals as we see them now will exist. And thirty years from then..., god knows what it will look like.

Big_G_NorthWales · October 2016

Jobabob said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:
Asa thinks immigration is where May will compromise. While her performance as Home Secretary might support that, and I would be happy with a compromise on it, it seems like politically it is much better for her not to on that point.
If she does, she needs to rename 'Hard Brexit' as 'Economic Ruin'

And she needs one of at least Fox and David to recant and support her.
Thought David had resigned and left the party. Their is a Davis as head of Brexit
There is a rule of physics that dictates that those who pick others up on typos will suffer a similar fate themself!

Fair play -I was two days ago

Jobabob · October 2016

Black_Rook said:

kle4 said:
Asa thinks immigration is where May will compromise. While her performance as Home Secretary might support that, and I would be happy with a compromise on it, it seems like politically it is much better for her not to on that point.
I think May could actually get away with it *IF* she could secure agreement to control low-skilled labour, in exchange for no restrictions on higher-wage workers with job offers. But the people she's negotiating with aren't in the mood for compromise. Firstly, if they budge on their cherished principles then it is likely to set off all kinds of demands from other quarters. Second, and more to the point, the UK is a convenient safety valve for problems elsewhere: for less well-off Eastern states, the British job market is a shortcut to greater prosperity through remittances, and for failing Southern Eurozone economies with catastrophic rates of youth unemployment it's one of the places where they can get rid of their excess, jobless twentysomethings.

If the UK regains control of the borders then it makes life harder for everyone else. Poorer and weaker states can't export their poverty and unemployment away, and wealthier ones like the Netherlands and Germany are liable to have to accommodate more migration than before. Thus, any talk of compromises appears moot: the EU might, conceivably be willing to bargain if we agreed to swallow the whole EFTA/EEA package, including total freedom of movement, although I have my doubts even of that - but the only likely alternative seems to be quite a limited agreement. I don't see how the UK is likely to get some kind of broad-based settlement on continuing seamless access to the single market if it won't give the other member states the freedom to dump as much of their excess labour here as they like.

"Dump as much..."

Jesus wept. Have you ever been to London? Or anywhere?

HYUFD · October 2016

Roger said:
Hi Tyson. I was near your neck of the woods a couple of weeks ago- Vinci then onto Siena and Cortona.......

When you thought it couldn't get worse (sorry if it's been posted)

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-will-he-win-us-presidential-election-2016-hillary-clinton-a7380621.html

That professor's model has predicted every presidential election for the last 100 years except for one, 2000 when Gore won the popular vote but lost the electoral college, so we could be in for a very long night on Tuesday week if that proves to be true. IBID-TIPP today has Trump ahead again and it called the last 3 presidential elections right

kle4 · October 2016

This [poll on a stop brexit party] might be true in a world where those parties were available, but you have the infrastructure of the parties and it is very hard to overturn. You can't just wish them away and wish this new infrastructure into existence in 650 constituencies.

True words from Leo.

tyson · October 2016

Roger said:
Hi Tyson. I was near your neck of the woods a couple of weeks ago- Vinci then onto Siena and Cortona.......

When you thought it couldn't get worse (sorry if it's been posted)

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-will-he-win-us-presidential-election-2016-hillary-clinton-a7380621.html

You should have said Roger...... about being in Italy obviously; not about Trump

kle4 · October 2016

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:
Asa thinks immigration is where May will compromise. While her performance as Home Secretary might support that, and I would be happy with a compromise on it, it seems like politically it is much better for her not to on that point.
She will almost certainly require a job offer to come to the uk rather than a points system, if that counts as a compromise
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3775069/No-job-t-Britain-s-blueprint-curb-EU-migrants-post-Brexit-revealed-rigorous-points-based-system.html
I know fellow Leavers who literally want every Polish person to be told to leave, obviously for such extremes anything will be a compromise that will disappoint, I guess it'll be down to how much will she be able to say she can reduce immigration - she won't want to pin it down precisely, we know what difficulty that can lead to, but most people want immigration down quite a bit, they need to be confident anything proposed will manage that.
A small minority want migrants to leave and effectively end all immigration but even most of those who want immigration controlled do not want that.

That's why I said it was an extreme and it was down to selling the compromise, if it occurs, to the rest, who do want serious reduction. It's not enough for a job offer system to be more rigorous, people will need to believe it, and I find it hard to predict how those who want serious reductions will respond - they've been told it would reduce before.

Jobabob · October 2016

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:
Asa thinks immigration is where May will compromise. While her performance as Home Secretary might support that, and I would be happy with a compromise on it, it seems like politically it is much better for her not to on that point.
She will almost certainly require a job offer to come to the uk rather than a points system, if that counts as a compromise
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3775069/No-job-t-Britain-s-blueprint-curb-EU-migrants-post-Brexit-revealed-rigorous-points-based-system.html
I know fellow Leavers who literally want every Polish person to be told to leave, obviously for such extremes anything will be a compromise that will disappoint, I guess it'll be down to how much will she be able to say she can reduce immigration - she won't want to pin it down precisely, we know what difficulty that can lead to, but most people want immigration down quite a bit, they need to be confident anything proposed will manage that.
A small minority want migrants to leave and effectively end all immigration but even most of those who want immigration controlled do not want that. Her argument is requiring a job offer is more rigorous and effective than a points system, we shall see. As for a trade agreement, May will propose a job offer requirement and agree any trade deal the EU are willing to do based on that, if they refuse she will just say she could not offer any more and go to WTO terms for the time being

How is EU talent going to be encouraged to come to London if they need a firm job offer first? I prefer the existing system to May's pointless rigmarole

IanB2 · October 2016

kle4 said:
I still think Labour cannot fall below 25%, despite Leo's argument. UKIP and LD need to do a lot better before I could believe that.

There are however two separate floor concepts to consider - the lowest proportion of voters that would identify as Labour when given a choice between the various party names, and the lowest proportion that would actually cast their vote for a Corbyn-led Labour Party after a disastrous campaign where he, his policies and his past, are torn to shreds by the media.

I am not, of course, saying that the latter scenario will come to pass - although I do think it quite likely - and a lot will depend on the popularity of the government at the time.

Nevertheless I would expect the second percentage to be two or three points lower than the first.

Sunil_Prasannan · October 2016

Jobabob said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:
Asa thinks immigration is where May will compromise. While her performance as Home Secretary might support that, and I would be happy with a compromise on it, it seems like politically it is much better for her not to on that point.
She will almost certainly require a job offer to come to the uk rather than a points system, if that counts as a compromise
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3775069/No-job-t-Britain-s-blueprint-curb-EU-migrants-post-Brexit-revealed-rigorous-points-based-system.html
I know fellow Leavers who literally want every Polish person to be told to leave, obviously for such extremes anything will be a compromise that will disappoint, I guess it'll be down to how much will she be able to say she can reduce immigration - she won't want to pin it down precisely, we know what difficulty that can lead to, but most people want immigration down quite a bit, they need to be confident anything proposed will manage that.
A small minority want migrants to leave and effectively end all immigration but even most of those who want immigration controlled do not want that. Her argument is requiring a job offer is more rigorous and effective than a points system, we shall see. As for a trade agreement, May will propose a job offer requirement and agree any trade deal the EU are willing to do based on that, if they refuse she will just say she could not offer any more and go to WTO terms for the time being
How is EU talent going to be encouraged to come to London if they need a firm job offer first? I prefer the existing system to May's pointless rigmarole

How about non-EU talent, you racist?

Tykejohnno · October 2016

Jobabob said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:
Asa thinks immigration is where May will compromise. While her performance as Home Secretary might support that, and I would be happy with a compromise on it, it seems like politically it is much better for her not to on that point.
She will almost certainly require a job offer to come to the uk rather than a points system, if that counts as a compromise
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3775069/No-job-t-Britain-s-blueprint-curb-EU-migrants-post-Brexit-revealed-rigorous-points-based-system.html
I know fellow Leavers who literally want every Polish person to be told to leave, obviously for such extremes anything will be a compromise that will disappoint, I guess it'll be down to how much will she be able to say she can reduce immigration - she won't want to pin it down precisely, we know what difficulty that can lead to, but most people want immigration down quite a bit, they need to be confident anything proposed will manage that.
A small minority want migrants to leave and effectively end all immigration but even most of those who want immigration controlled do not want that. Her argument is requiring a job offer is more rigorous and effective than a points system, we shall see. As for a trade agreement, May will propose a job offer requirement and agree any trade deal the EU are willing to do based on that, if they refuse she will just say she could not offer any more and go to WTO terms for the time being
How is EU talent going to be encouraged to come to London if they need a firm job offer first? I prefer the existing system to May's pointless rigmarole

EU talent - lol - you haven't travelled to northern English cities/towns much then.

Jobabob · October 2016

SeanT said:

Jobabob said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:
Asa thinks immigration is where May will compromise. While her performance as Home Secretary might support that, and I would be happy with a compromise on it, it seems like politically it is much better for her not to on that point.
She will almost certainly require a job offer to come to the uk rather than a points system, if that counts as a compromise
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3775069/No-job-t-Britain-s-blueprint-curb-EU-migrants-post-Brexit-revealed-rigorous-points-based-system.html
I know fellow Leavers who literally want every Polish person to be told to leave, obviously for such extremes anything will be a compromise that will disappoint, I guess it'll be down to how much will she be able to say she can reduce immigration - she won't want to pin it down precisely, we know what difficulty that can lead to, but most people want immigration down quite a bit, they need to be confident anything proposed will manage that.
A small minority want migrants to leave and effectively end all immigration but even most of those who want immigration controlled do not want that. Her argument is requiring a job offer is more rigorous and effective than a points system, we shall see. As for a trade agreement, May will propose a job offer requirement and agree any trade deal the EU are willing to do based on that, if they refuse she will just say she could not offer any more and go to WTO terms for the time being
How is EU talent going to be encouraged to come to London if they need a firm job offer first? I prefer the existing system to May's pointless rigmarole
New York City seems to manage with a similar system. Likewise Singapore, Hong Kong, Tokyo, Sydney....

None of those cities are true world cities. London is the ONLY world city now. New York pales in comparison. And as for the rest? Pfft.

kle4 · October 2016

Three years on from the signing of the Royal Charter on self-regulation of the press, Britain's main newspapers are all still refusing to sign up to the Leveson system.

Good. Sounds like still a bit of a messy situation though.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-37767046

HYUFD · October 2016

Jobabob said:

SeanT said:

Jobabob said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:
Asa thinks immigration is where May will compromise. While her performance as Home Secretary might support that, and I would be happy with a compromise on it, it seems like politically it is much better for her not to on that point.
She will almost certainly require a job offer to come to the uk rather than a points system, if that counts as a compromise
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3775069/No-job-t-Britain-s-blueprint-curb-EU-migrants-post-Brexit-revealed-rigorous-points-based-system.html
I know fellow Leavers who literally want every Polish person to be told to leave, obviously for such extremes anything will be a compromise that will disappoint, I guess it'll be down to how much will she be able to say she can reduce immigration - she won't want to pin it down precisely, we know what difficulty that can lead to, but most people want immigration down quite a bit, they need to be confident anything proposed will manage that.
A small minority want migrants to leave and effectively end all immigration but even most of those who want immigration controlled do not want that. Her argument is requiring a job offer is more rigorous and effective than a points system, we shall see. As for a trade agreement, May will propose a job offer requirement and agree any trade deal the EU are willing to do based on that, if they refuse she will just say she could not offer any more and go to WTO terms for the time being
How is EU talent going to be encouraged to come to London if they need a firm job offer first? I prefer the existing system to May's pointless rigmarole
New York City seems to manage with a similar system. Likewise Singapore, Hong Kong, Tokyo, Sydney....
None of those cities are true world cities. London is the ONLY world city now. New York pales in comparison. And as for the rest? Pfft.

In terms of visitors London gets the most of any global City on some measures but in terms of gdp it is Tokyo first, then New York, then LA, then London

weejonnie · October 2016

Jobabob said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:
Asa thinks immigration is where May will compromise. While her performance as Home Secretary might support that, and I would be happy with a compromise on it, it seems like politically it is much better for her not to on that point.
If she does, she needs to rename 'Hard Brexit' as 'Economic Ruin'

And she needs one of at least Fox and David to recant and support her.
Thought David had resigned and left the party. Their is a Davis as head of Brexit
There is a rule of physics that dictates that those who pick others up on typos will suffer a similar fate themself!

Well as it shuld have been 'themselves' I definitely agree.

foxinsoxuk · October 2016

tyson said:

foxinsoxuk said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

tyson said:

foxinsoxuk said:
The health economics of expensive biological drugs are quite complex. So for example the monoclonal antibodies used as disease modifying agents for rheumatoid have (expensively) transformed a crippling deforming disease into one that allows someone to keep working. I just do not see the wrecked bodies that were all too common 25 years ago.

The cost of the drug (including the logistics and human cost of regular infusions and monitoring) vs the cost to the individual, family and society (particularly the impact on carers and social care) relies on a lot of assumptions and hidden costs, as well as hidden benefits.

My money saving wheeze for the NHS : compulsory sterilisation of all cousanguinous marriages who wish UK residence. A little totalitarian perhaps, but would save a lot of misery as well as money.
We have a
It's only by doing that that we can get better at it, though.
There is concern about sub 25 week pr
There is an a tsunami that is going to hit advanced healthcare...technology and prevention. People will be responsible for tracking their own conditions probably though their smart phone...BP, diabetes, cholesterol etc.... People who do not comply with preventative treatments...smoking, obesity, exercise, drinking etc....will be denied treatments.

Almost/ if not all surgery will be done remotely by surgeons working on computers.

We'll obviously have local clinics to give the oldies that injection with some nice music and a last hit of opiates to bring a smile to one's face.

In thirty years time the whole complexion of health will be fundamentally changed. I doubt hospitals as we see them now will exist. And thirty years from then..., god knows what it will look like.

Certainly both phone companies and healthcare companies see big prospects for active monitoring of conditions. My brother leads a research lab working on non-invasive monitoring of glucose and lipids for example. I am less convinced that it is the future. Most people are not as obsessional about these things.

Robotic surgery is coming for many things - in Leicester our gynecological cancer surgery is done robotically, with the surgeon sitting in the corner controlling the robot.

I saw a demonstration of a heads up VR style display for operating recently. The surgeon was operating manually, albeit with automated instruments, but able to see round corners and zoom to his hearts content, illuminate what he chose and even adjust the contrast for dissection.

Good results, but certainly not cheap! We return to squaring the circle of health being beyond price, but healthcare having a limited budget.

kle4 · October 2016

Jobabob said:

SeanT said:

Jobabob said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:
Asa thinks immigration is where May will compromise. While her performance as Home Secretary might support that, and I would be happy with a compromise on it, it seems like politically it is much better for her not to on that point.
She will almost certainly require a job offer to come to the uk rather than a points system, if that counts as a compromise
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3775069/No-job-t-Britain-s-blueprint-curb-EU-migrants-post-Brexit-revealed-rigorous-points-based-system.html
I know fellow Leavers who literally want every Polish person to be told to leave, obviously for such extremes anything will be a compromise that will disappoint, I guess it'll be down to how much will she be able to say she can reduce immigration - she won't want to pin it down precisely, we know what difficulty that can lead to, but most people want immigration down quite a bit, they need to be confident anything proposed will manage that.
A small minority want migrants to leave and effectively end all immigration but even most of those who want immigration controlled do not want that. Her argument is requiring a job offer is more rigorous and effective than a points system, we shall see. As for a trade agreement, May will propose a job offer requirement and agree any trade deal the EU are willing to do based on that, if they refuse she will just say she could not offer any more and go to WTO terms for the time being
How is EU talent going to be encouraged to come to London if they need a firm job offer first? I prefer the existing system to May's pointless rigmarole
New York City seems to manage with a similar system. Likewise Singapore, Hong Kong, Tokyo, Sydney....
None of those cities are true world cities. London is the ONLY world city now. New York pales in comparison. And as for the rest? Pfft.

If it has no rival, surely that means even the imposition of pointless rigmarole would not have a detrimental effect so large it would be significant? I confess, I assumed your response would be to say it would not remain a World city if this system is brought in due to its rivals overtaking it.

HYUFD · October 2016

Jobabob said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:
Asa thinks immigration is where May will compromise. While her performance as Home Secretary might support that, and I would be happy with a compromise on it, it seems like politically it is much better for her not to on that point.
She will almost certainly require a job offer to come to the uk rather than a points system, if that counts as a compromise
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3775069/No-job-t-Britain-s-blueprint-curb-EU-migrants-post-Brexit-revealed-rigorous-points-based-system.html
I know fellow Leavers who literally want every Polish person to be told to leave, obviously for such extremes anything will be a compromise that will disappoint, I guess it'll be down to how much will she be able to say she can reduce immigration - she won't want to pin it down precisely, we know what difficulty that can lead to, but most people want immigration down quite a bit, they need to be confident anything proposed will manage that.
A small minority want migrants to leave and effectively end all immigration but even most of those who want immigration controlled do not want that. Her argument is requiring a job offer is more rigorous and effective than a points system, we shall see. As for a trade agreement, May will propose a job offer requirement and agree any trade deal the EU are willing to do based on that, if they refuse she will just say she could not offer any more and go to WTO terms for the time being
How is EU talent going to be encouraged to come to London if they need a firm job offer first? I prefer the existing system to May's pointless rigmarole

Well sadly for you the existing system was rejected at the recent EU referendum and May is not going to commit political suicide and keep free movement exactly as it is now

Tissue_Price · October 2016

Since I'm probably personally extended enough on this market, would anyone care to price up Democratic majority control of the Senate subject to these rules?

A majority of seats requires either party to control at least 51 of the total 100 Senate seats as a result of the 34 seats to be contended at the 2016 US Senate elections. Independent or any other party Senators caucusing with either the Democrats or Republicans will NOT count for the purposes of this market.

Sunil_Prasannan · October 2016

Jobabob said:

SeanT said:

Jobabob said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:
Asa thinks immigration is where May will compromise. While her performance as Home Secretary might support that, and I would be happy with a compromise on it, it seems like politically it is much better for her not to on that point.
She will almost certainly require a job offer to come to the uk rather than a points system, if that counts as a compromise
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3775069/No-job-t-Britain-s-blueprint-curb-EU-migrants-post-Brexit-revealed-rigorous-points-based-system.html
I know fellow Leavers who literally want every Polish person to be told to leave, obviously for such extremes anything will be a compromise that will disappoint, I guess it'll be down to how much will she be able to say she can reduce immigration - she won't want to pin it down precisely, we know what difficulty that can lead to, but most people want immigration down quite a bit, they need to be confident anything proposed will manage that.
A small minority want migrants to leave and effectively end all immigration but even most of those who want immigration controlled do not want that. Her argument is requiring a job offer is more rigorous and effective than a points system, we shall see. As for a trade agreement, May will propose a job offer requirement and agree any trade deal the EU are willing to do based on that, if they refuse she will just say she could not offer any more and go to WTO terms for the time being
How is EU talent going to be encouraged to come to London if they need a firm job offer first? I prefer the existing system to May's pointless rigmarole
New York City seems to manage with a similar system. Likewise Singapore, Hong Kong, Tokyo, Sydney....
None of those cities are true world cities. London is the ONLY world city now. New York pales in comparison. And as for the rest? Pfft.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nylonkong

HYUFD · October 2016

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:
Asa thinks immigration is where May will compromise. While her performance as Home Secretary might support that, and I would be happy with a compromise on it, it seems like politically it is much better for her not to on that point.
She will almost certainly require a job offer to come to the uk rather than a points system, if that counts as a compromise
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3775069/No-job-t-Britain-s-blueprint-curb-EU-migrants-post-Brexit-revealed-rigorous-points-based-system.html
I know fellow Leavers who literally want every Polish person to be told to leave, obviously for such extremes anything will be a compromise that will disappoint, I guess it'll be down to how much will she be able to say she can reduce immigration - she won't want to pin it down precisely, we know what difficulty that can lead to, but most people want immigration down quite a bit, they need to be confident anything proposed will manage that.
A small minority want migrants to leave and effectively end all immigration but even most of those who want immigration controlled do not want that.
That's why I said it was an extreme and it was down to selling the compromise, if it occurs, to the rest, who do want serious reduction. It's not enough for a job offer system to be more rigorous, people will need to believe it, and I find it hard to predict how those who want serious reductions will respond - they've been told it would reduce before.

There will be around 25% of the electorate who will not accept it and say it is not going to produce the reductions they want in immigration, which is why I think UKIP's recent troubles are only temporary and if they pick Paul Nuttall to lead them they could increase their voteshare at the next election. On the other hand 10% of the electorate will say it goes too far and free movement and full single market access should be kept as now and they are the LDs natural constituency. However the remaining 65% of the electorate, will be happy with such a proposal and May will have the backing of most of the country for it

Alistair · October 2016

HYUFD said:

Roger said:
Hi Tyson. I was near your neck of the woods a couple of weeks ago- Vinci then onto Siena and Cortona.......

When you thought it couldn't get worse (sorry if it's been posted)

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-will-he-win-us-presidential-election-2016-hillary-clinton-a7380621.html
That professor's model has predicted every presidential election for the last 100 years except for one, 2000 when Gore won the popular vote but lost the electoral college, so we could be in for a very long night on Tuesday week if that proves to be true. IBID-TIPP today has Trump ahead again and it called the last 3 presidential elections right

I can develop model that accurately predicts every presidential election back to the founding of the united states of America.

Admittedly it will involve a lot of if statements on the year but I guarantee 100% accuracy.

Cyclefree · October 2016

Anyway, before I go off to bed and in case anyone still cares, the answer to my quiz fpt is Jack Straw and he made the comments at a conference exactly one month ago.

kle4 · October 2016

HYUFD said:

Jobabob said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:
Asa thinks immigration is where May will compromise. While her performance as Home Secretary might support that, and I would be happy with a compromise on it, it seems like politically it is much better for her not to on that point.
She will almost certainly require a job offer to come to the uk rather than a points system, if that counts as a compromise
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3775069/No-job-t-Britain-s-blueprint-curb-EU-migrants-post-Brexit-revealed-rigorous-points-based-system.html
I know fellow Leavers who literally want every Polish person to be told to leave, obviously for such extremes anything will be a compromise that will disappoint, I guess it'll be down to how much will she be able to say she can reduce immigration - she won't want to pin it down precisely, we know what difficulty that can lead to, but most people want immigration down quite a bit, they need to be confident anything proposed will manage that.
A small minority want migrants to leave and effectively end all immigration but even most of those who want immigration controlled do not want that. Her argument is requiring a job offer is more rigorous and effective than a points system, we shall see. As for a trade agreement, May will propose a job offer requirement and agree any trade deal the EU are willing to do based on that, if they refuse she will just say she could not offer any more and go to WTO terms for the time being
How is EU talent going to be encouraged to come to London if they need a firm job offer first? I prefer the existing system to May's pointless rigmarole
Well sadly for you the existing system was rejected at the recent EU referendum and May is not going to commit political suicide and keep free movement exactly as it is now

If she get much in exchange to retaining free movement I'd sure she could sell it to 50% of the country...but it would likely be politically unviable for her as it would probably split her party more than any other.

Sunil_Prasannan · October 2016

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nylonkong

kle4 · October 2016

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Jobabob said:

SeanT said:

Jobabob said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:
Asa thinks immigration is where May will compromise. While her performance as Home Secretary might support that, and I would be happy with a compromise on it, it seems like politically it is much better for her not to on that point.
She will almost certainly require a job offer to come to the uk rather than a points system, if that counts as a compromise
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3775069/No-job-t-Britain-s-blueprint-curb-EU-migrants-post-Brexit-revealed-rigorous-points-based-system.html
I know fellow Leavers who literally want every Polish person to be told to leave, obviously for such extremes anything will be a compromise that will disappoint, I guess it'll be down to how much will she be able to say she can reduce immigration - she won't want to pin it down precisely, we know what difficulty that can lead to, but most people want immigration down quite a bit, they need to be confident anything proposed will manage that.
A small minority want migrants to leave and effectively end all immigration but even most of those who want immigration controlled do not want that. Her argument is requiring a job offer is more rigorous and effective than a points system, we shall see. As for a trade agreement, May will propose a job offer requirement and agree any trade deal the EU are willing to do based on that, if they refuse she will just say she could not offer any more and go to WTO terms for the time being
How is EU talent going to be encouraged to come to London if they need a firm job offer first? I prefer the existing system to May's pointless rigmarole
New York City seems to manage with a similar system. Likewise Singapore, Hong Kong, Tokyo, Sydney....
None of those cities are true world cities. London is the ONLY world city now. New York pales in comparison. And as for the rest? Pfft.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nylonkong

I have never heard of that term or seem it mentioned on PB, a place that raises the issue of world city status a darn site more than most I suspect.

Jobabob · October 2016

HYUFD said:

Jobabob said:

SeanT said:

Jobabob said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:
Asa thinks immigration is where May will compromise. While her performance as Home Secretary might support that, and I would be happy with a compromise on it, it seems like politically it is much better for her not to on that point.
She will almost certainly require a job offer to come to the uk rather than a points system, if that counts as a compromise
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3775069/No-job-t-Britain-s-blueprint-curb-EU-migrants-post-Brexit-revealed-rigorous-points-based-system.html
I know fellow Leavers who literally want every Polish person to be told to leave, obviously for such extremes anything will be a compromise that will disappoint, I guess it'll be down to how much will she be able to say she can reduce immigration - she won't want to pin it down precisely, we know what difficulty that can lead to, but most people want immigration down quite a bit, they need to be confident anything proposed will manage that.
A small minority want migrants to leave and effectively end all immigration but even most of those who want immigration controlled do not want that. Her argument is requiring a job offer is more rigorous and effective than a points system, we shall see. As for a trade agreement, May will propose a job offer requirement and agree any trade deal the EU are willing to do based on that, if they refuse she will just say she could not offer any more and go to WTO terms for the time being
How is EU talent going to be encouraged to come to London if they need a firm job offer first? I prefer the existing system to May's pointless rigmarole
New York City seems to manage with a similar system. Likewise Singapore, Hong Kong, Tokyo, Sydney....
None of those cities are true world cities. London is the ONLY world city now. New York pales in comparison. And as for the rest? Pfft.
In terms of visitors London gets the most of any global City on some measures but in terms of gdp it is Tokyo first, then New York, then LA, then London

I am not talking about GDP

HYUFD · October 2016

Alistair said:

HYUFD said:

Roger said:
Hi Tyson. I was near your neck of the woods a couple of weeks ago- Vinci then onto Siena and Cortona.......

When you thought it couldn't get worse (sorry if it's been posted)

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-will-he-win-us-presidential-election-2016-hillary-clinton-a7380621.html
That professor's model has predicted every presidential election for the last 100 years except for one, 2000 when Gore won the popular vote but lost the electoral college, so we could be in for a very long night on Tuesday week if that proves to be true. IBID-TIPP today has Trump ahead again and it called the last 3 presidential elections right
I can develop model that accurately predicts every presidential election back to the founding of the united states of America.

Admittedly it will involve a lot of if statements on the year but I guarantee 100% accuracy.

We will see on Tuesday week but this election has a lot of similarities to 2000, no presidential incumbent and 2 uninspiring candidates in a deeply partisan nation

Jobabob · October 2016

kle4 said:

Jobabob said:

SeanT said:

Jobabob said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:
Asa thinks immigration is where May will compromise. While her performance as Home Secretary might support that, and I would be happy with a compromise on it, it seems like politically it is much better for her not to on that point.
She will almost certainly require a job offer to come to the uk rather than a points system, if that counts as a compromise
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3775069/No-job-t-Britain-s-blueprint-curb-EU-migrants-post-Brexit-revealed-rigorous-points-based-system.html
I know fellow Leavers who literally want every Polish person to be told to leave, obviously for such extremes anything will be a compromise that will disappoint, I guess it'll be down to how much will she be able to say she can reduce immigration - she won't want to pin it down precisely, we know what difficulty that can lead to, but most people want immigration down quite a bit, they need to be confident anything proposed will manage that.
A small minority want migrants to leave and effectively end all immigration but even most of those who want immigration controlled do not want that. Her argument is requiring a job offer is more rigorous and effective than a points system, we shall see. As for a trade agreement, May will propose a job offer requirement and agree any trade deal the EU are willing to do based on that, if they refuse she will just say she could not offer any more and go to WTO terms for the time being
How is EU talent going to be encouraged to come to London if they need a firm job offer first? I prefer the existing system to May's pointless rigmarole
New York City seems to manage with a similar system. Likewise Singapore, Hong Kong, Tokyo, Sydney....
None of those cities are true world cities. London is the ONLY world city now. New York pales in comparison. And as for the rest? Pfft.
If it has no rival, surely that means even the imposition of pointless rigmarole would not have a detrimental effect so large it would be significant? I confess, I assumed your response would be to say it would not remain a World city if this system is brought in due to its rivals overtaking it.

Correct. Very prescient.

foxinsoxuk · October 2016

Cyclefree said:
Anyway, before I go off to bed and in case anyone still cares, the answer to my quiz fpt is Jack Straw and he made the comments at a conference exactly one month ago.

Remind us of the question please?

Otherwise it is all a bit Deep Thought!

HYUFD · October 2016

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

Jobabob said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:
Asa thinks immigration is where May will compromise. While her performance as Home Secretary might support that, and I would be happy with a compromise on it, it seems like politically it is much better for her not to on that point.
She will almost certainly require a job offer to come to the uk rather than a points system, if that counts as a compromise
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3775069/No-job-t-Britain-s-blueprint-curb-EU-migrants-post-Brexit-revealed-rigorous-points-based-system.html
I know fellow Leavers who literally want every Polish person to be told to leave, obviously for such extremes anything will be a compromise that will disappoint, I guess it'll be down to how much will she be able to say she can reduce immigration - she won't want to pin it down precisely, we know what difficulty that can lead to, but most people want immigration down quite a bit, they need to be confident anything proposed will manage that.
A small minority want migrants to leave and effectively end all immigration but even most of those who want immigration controlled do not want that. Her argument is requiring a job offer is more rigorous and effective than a points system, we shall see. As for a trade agreement, May will propose a job offer requirement and agree any trade deal the EU are willing to do based on that, if they refuse she will just say she could not offer any more and go to WTO terms for the time being
How is EU talent going to be encouraged to come to London if they need a firm job offer first? I prefer the existing system to May's pointless rigmarole
Well sadly for you the existing system was rejected at the recent EU referendum and May is not going to commit political suicide and keep free movement exactly as it is now
If she get much in exchange to retaining free movement I'd sure she could sell it to 50% of the country...but it would likely be politically unviable for her as it would probably split her party more than any other.

Indeed, Tory voters put immigration control first, albeit with a significant pro single market minority

Jobabob · October 2016

HYUFD said:

Jobabob said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:
Asa thinks immigration is where May will compromise. While her performance as Home Secretary might support that, and I would be happy with a compromise on it, it seems like politically it is much better for her not to on that point.
She will almost certainly require a job offer to come to the uk rather than a points system, if that counts as a compromise
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3775069/No-job-t-Britain-s-blueprint-curb-EU-migrants-post-Brexit-revealed-rigorous-points-based-system.html
I know fellow Leavers who literally want every Polish person to be told to leave, obviously for such extremes anything will be a compromise that will disappoint, I guess it'll be down to how much will she be able to say she can reduce immigration - she won't want to pin it down precisely, we know what difficulty that can lead to, but most people want immigration down quite a bit, they need to be confident anything proposed will manage that.
A small minority want migrants to leave and effectively end all immigration but even most of those who want immigration controlled do not want that. Her argument is requiring a job offer is more rigorous and effective than a points system, we shall see. As for a trade agreement, May will propose a job offer requirement and agree any trade deal the EU are willing to do based on that, if they refuse she will just say she could not offer any more and go to WTO terms for the time being
How is EU talent going to be encouraged to come to London if they need a firm job offer first? I prefer the existing system to May's pointless rigmarole
Well sadly for you the existing system was rejected at the recent EU referendum and May is not going to commit political suicide and keep free movement exactly as it is now

London did not reject it.

It decisively endorsed it.

tyson · October 2016

Jobabob said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:
Asa thinks immigration is where May will compromise. While her performance as Home Secretary might support that, and I would be happy with a compromise on it, it seems like politically it is much better for her not to on that point.
She will almost certainly require a job offer to come to the uk rather than a points system, if that counts as a compromise
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3775069/No-job-t-Britain-s-blueprint-curb-EU-migrants-post-Brexit-revealed-rigorous-points-based-system.html
I know fellow Leavers who literally want every Polish person to be told to leave, obviously for such extremes anything will be a compromise that will disappoint, I guess it'll be down to how much will she be able to say she can reduce immigration - she won't want to pin it down precisely, we know what difficulty that can lead to, but most people want immigration down quite a bit, they need to be confident anything proposed will manage that.
A small minority want migrants to leave and effectively end all immigration but even most of those who want immigration controlled do not want that. Her argument is requiring a job offer is more rigorous and effective than a points system, we shall see. As for a trade agreement, May will propose a job offer requirement and agree any trade deal the EU are willing to do based on that, if they refuse she will just say she could not offer any more and go to WTO terms for the time being
How is EU talent going to be encouraged to come to London if they need a firm job offer first? I prefer the existing system to May's pointless rigmarole

Obviously, people like Theresa May, or dare I say HYUFD (I could be wrong)., have done little recruitment in their time.

In the public sector I was reliant on HR to sort out the paperwork on recruitment. They have been decimated. Christ knows how much more complicated and convoluted the whole process will be with these madcap ideas thrown into the mix.

But...I feel particularly sorry for the entrepreneurs, the wealth creators who rely on access to labour, free markets, and liberalism. The ideas that May is contemplating is worthy of the Stasi. Bureaucracy and form after form.

I'm a lefty and I can see the kind of problems we are encountering. Surely it shouldn't be left to people like me to champion free market capitalism?

Tykejohnno · October 2016

https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/791387915800702976

kle4 · October 2016

Jobabob said:

HYUFD said:

Jobabob said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:
Asa thinks immigration is where May will compromise. While her performance as Home Secretary might support that, and I would be happy with a compromise on it, it seems like politically it is much better for her not to on that point.
She will almost certainly require a job offer to come to the uk rather than a points system, if that counts as a compromise
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3775069/No-job-t-Britain-s-blueprint-curb-EU-migrants-post-Brexit-revealed-rigorous-points-based-system.html
I know fellow Leavers who literally want every Polish person to be told to leave, obviously for such extremes anything will be a compromise that will disappoint, I guess it'll be down to how much will she be able to say she can reduce immigration - she won't want to pin it down precisely, we know what difficulty that can lead to, but most people want immigration down quite a bit, they need to be confident anything proposed will manage that.
A small minority want migrants to leave and effectively end all immigration but even most of those who want immigration controlled do not want that. Her argument is requiring a job offer is more rigorous and effective than a points system, we shall see. As for a trade agreement, May will propose a job offer requirement and agree any trade deal the EU are willing to do based on that, if they refuse she will just say she could not offer any more and go to WTO terms for the time being
How is EU talent going to be encouraged to come to London if they need a firm job offer first? I prefer the existing system to May's pointless rigmarole
Well sadly for you the existing system was rejected at the recent EU referendum and May is not going to commit political suicide and keep free movement exactly as it is now
London did not reject it.

It decisively endorsed it.

Well unfortunately for London it exists within a country that did reject it (sort of - as I said, I think free movement is sellable to the country if hard work is put in, just, but there's little incentive to do so for May)

HYUFD · October 2016

SeanT said:

kle4 said:

Jobabob said:

SeanT said:

Jobabob said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:
Asa thinks immigration is where May will compromise. While her performance as Home Secretary might support that, and I would be happy with a compromise on it, it seems like politically it is much better for her not to on that point.
She will almost certainly require a job offer to come to the uk rather than a points system, if that counts as a compromise
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3775069/No-job-t-Britain-s-blueprint-curb-EU-migrants-post-Brexit-revealed-rigorous-points-based-system.html
I know fellow Leavers who literally want every Polish person to be told to leave, obviously for such extremes anything will be a compromise that will disappoint, I guess it'll be down to how much will she be able to say she can reduce immigration - she won't want to pin it down precisely, we know what difficulty that can lead to, but most people want immigration down quite a bit, they need to be confident anything proposed will manage that.
A small minoritt, if they refuse she will just say she could not offer any more and go to WTO terms for the time being
How is EU talent going to be encouraged to come to London if they need a firm job offer first? I prefer the existing system to May's pointless rigmarole
New York City seems to manage with a similar system. Likewise Singapore, Hong Kong, Tokyo, Sydney....
None of those cities are true world cities. London is the ONLY world city now. New York pales in comparison. And as for the rest? Pfft.
If it has no rival, surely that means even the imposition of pointless rigmarole would not have a detrimental effect so large it would be significant? I confess, I assumed your response would be to say it would not remain a World city if this system is brought in due to its rivals overtaking it.
I'm a big fan of London, and it is at the moment clearly superior to New York City, but it is a question of degree, not dimension. NYC has lots going for it, and could easily supplant London again, as the paramount city.... though I reckon Asia will provide the next great world city, not Europe, not America.

Hong Kong, Shanghai, Singapore? Probably Shanghai.

Shanghai is the only one of those close to the population and gdp of London and New York (in fact it has a significantly bigger population), though Tokyo is bigger on both measures than London and New York so could also be added to the group

Jobabob · October 2016

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Jobabob said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:
Asa thinks immigration is where May will compromise. While her performance as Home Secretary might support that, and I would be happy with a compromise on it, it seems like politically it is much better for her not to on that point.
She will almost certainly require a job offer to come to the uk rather than a points system, if that counts as a compromise
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3775069/No-job-t-Britain-s-blueprint-curb-EU-migrants-post-Brexit-revealed-rigorous-points-based-system.html
I know fellow Leavers who literally want every Polish person to be told to leave, obviously for such extremes anything will be a compromise that will disappoint, I guess it'll be down to how much will she be able to say she can reduce immigration - she won't want to pin it down precisely, we know what difficulty that can lead to, but most people want immigration down quite a bit, they need to be confident anything proposed will manage that.
A small minority want migrants to leave and effectively end all immigration but even most of those who want immigration controlled do not want that. Her argument is requiring a job offer is more rigorous and effective than a points system, we shall see. As for a trade agreement, May will propose a job offer requirement and agree any trade deal the EU are willing to do based on that, if they refuse she will just say she could not offer any more and go to WTO terms for the time being
How is EU talent going to be encouraged to come to London if they need a firm job offer first? I prefer the existing system to May's pointless rigmarole
How about non-EU talent, you racist?

I'll treat that comment with the complete contempt it deserves.

Scott_P · October 2016

https://twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/791392588427325440

Sunil_Prasannan · October 2016

Jobabob said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Jobabob said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:
Asa thinks immigration is where May will compromise. While her performance as Home Secretary might support that, and I would be happy with a compromise on it, it seems like politically it is much better for her not to on that point.
She will almost certainly require a job offer to come to the uk rather than a points system, if that counts as a compromise
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3775069/No-job-t-Britain-s-blueprint-curb-EU-migrants-post-Brexit-revealed-rigorous-points-based-system.html
I know fellow Leavers who literally want every Polish person to be told to leave, obviously for such extremes anything will be a compromise that will disappoint, I guess it'll be down to how much will she be able to say she can reduce immigration - she won't want to pin it down precisely, we know what difficulty that can lead to, but most people want immigration down quite a bit, they need to be confident anything proposed will manage that.
A small minority want migrants to leave and effectively end all immigration but even most of those who want immigration controlled do not want that. Her argument is requiring a job offer is more rigorous and effective than a points system, we shall see. As for a trade agreement, May will propose a job offer requirement and agree any trade deal the EU are willing to do based on that, if they refuse she will just say she could not offer any more and go to WTO terms for the time being
How is EU talent going to be encouraged to come to London if they need a firm job offer first? I prefer the existing system to May's pointless rigmarole
How about non-EU talent, you racist?
I'll treat that comment with the complete contempt it deserves.

How about non-EU talent, you racist?

Black_Rook · October 2016

Jobabob said:
Jesus wept. Have you ever been to London? Or anywhere?

Yes, smartarse.

Export of excess labour from poorer/struggling areas to wealthier/stronger ones is a fact of life. It happens within and between countries all the time. The difference between the current situation w.r.t. the UK and EU, and that which pertains after border control is re-established, is simply that the British Government will regain the means to control unwanted forms of immigration. It doesn't necessarily follow that it will, but the ability to elect a Government which can plausibly promise to use those tools is, at least, restored to the electorate.

There is no benefit to the UK in importing unemployed Spanish graduates to work as coffee shop baristas, least of all in London. No developed economy that is not only as relatively densely populated as ours, but also has a significant natural rate of population growth, should be importing more labour except to fill *essential* vacancies at home, once it has been demonstrated that the required employees cannot be provided by the domestic workforce.

tyson · October 2016

foxinsoxuk said:

Cyclefree said:
Anyway, before I go off to bed and in case anyone still cares, the answer to my quiz fpt is Jack Straw and he made the comments at a conference exactly one month ago.
Remind us of the question please?

Otherwise it is all a bit Deep Thought!

I don't think I would be surprised of any quotes attributed to Jack Straw to be honest. He more than any other, reminds me of that geezer, whose name I have forgotten, who sorted out the railway system for Aushwitz, and then ended up getting nabbed by the Israeli's in Argentina.

brokenwheel · October 2016

Tykejohnno said:
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/791387915800702976

Yeah let Mary Berry loose on them, they'll be quaking in their boots when she criticises their Pavlova.

MikeL · October 2016

New National Poll (GfK):

Clinton +14 (not a typo!)

Clinton 51, Trump 37

Link - which is great - it posts new polls numerous times every day:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/updates/#now

AndyJS · October 2016

SeanT said:
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rotherham-council-helps-grooming-suspects-to-win-anonymity-vlgb30xz5

It's still happening in Rotherham. The racialised grooming and abuse of white girls by Pakistani men.

STILL. HAPPENING.

Good to see The Times continuing to investigate this.

Jobabob · October 2016

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/791392588427325440

More news on that open Britain May has been banging on about.

foxinsoxuk · October 2016

tyson said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Cyclefree said:
Anyway, before I go off to bed and in case anyone still cares, the answer to my quiz fpt is Jack Straw and he made the comments at a conference exactly one month ago.
Remind us of the question please?

Otherwise it is all a bit Deep Thought!
I don't think I would be surprised of any quotes attributed to Jack Straw to be honest. He more than any other, reminds me of that geezer, whose name I have forgotten, who sorted out the railway system for Aushwitz, and then ended up getting nabbed by the Israeli's in Argentina.

Adolf Eichmann?

A bit harsh on Jack straw.

Tykejohnno · October 2016

https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/791393996774006784

AndyJS · October 2016

According to this BBC report, the by-election will be held on 1st December.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37779423

Cyclefree · October 2016

foxinsoxuk said:

Cyclefree said:
Anyway, before I go off to bed and in case anyone still cares, the answer to my quiz fpt is Jack Straw and he made the comments at a conference exactly one month ago.
Remind us of the question please?

Otherwise it is all a bit Deep Thought!

http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/1315615/#Comment_1315615

Scott_P · October 2016

https://twitter.com/timross_1/status/791392640726106112

Jobabob · October 2016

Black_Rook said:

Jobabob said:
Jesus wept. Have you ever been to London? Or anywhere?
Yes, smartarse.

Export of excess labour from poorer/struggling areas to wealthier/stronger ones is a fact of life. It happens within and between countries all the time. The difference between the current situation w.r.t. the UK and EU, and that which pertains after border control is re-established, is simply that the British Government will regain the means to control unwanted forms of immigration. It doesn't necessarily follow that it will, but the ability to elect a Government which can plausibly promise to use those tools is, at least, restored to the electorate.

There is no benefit to the UK in importing unemployed Spanish graduates to work as coffee shop baristas, least of all in London. No developed economy that is not only as relatively densely populated as ours, but also has a significant natural rate of population growth, should be importing more labour except to fill *essential* vacancies at home, once it has been demonstrated that the required employees cannot be provided by the domestic workforce.

A job in Pret pays ~£22k a year full time down here. Those people pay good taxes. There are lots of jobs. How do you suggest we "prove" that they cannot be provided by the "domestic" workforce? You clearly have no idea about hiring in London - I do. I do it.

Scott_P · October 2016

SeanT said:
I can see May sacking her Brexiteers before too long.

As long as Fox is first...

tyson · October 2016

London will still import tens of thousands of people. It just won't have quite so many Bulgarian brickies and Spanish waiters. And Roma Big Issue sellers. The low skilled.

Note, however, it will still have PLENTY of these: 3m have come in the last ten years and probably another 300,000 will come before final Brexit, and after that immigration will still be high by historic standards - net 200,000 annually or more. It will take TMay half a decade to get it anywhere near 100,000.

@seanT

Mate, mate.....lIve in the real world......Try and sort out your HR process to manage it. You have your vacancies....what hoops do you have to jump through to select your candidates? To even think about who you can even interview. And then you get through that.... And then you offer. Then you have to go through some jobsworth to vet whether they are low skilled or not. Or from what country. And it all takes time....and you want to get on with your business. And what about their qualifications. What if you have a Polish lumpen who is a self taught brilliant programmer?

The problem is you do not have a HR team....you have to fill in your tax returns...you are a start up tech firm (the Apple of the future). Your candidate has qualifications but cannot vouch for them.

What May is proposing is a nightmare and an affront to capitalism. And why is it people like me...lefties...that are pointing this out?

You need to lose that ideological bullshit that is turning your brain to mush......

IanB2 · October 2016

SeanT said:

Tykejohnno said:
https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/791393996774006784
Ooh!

I can see May sacking her Brexiteers before too long.

Except that FS for Boris was the perfect combination of plum job and exile from the country. There isn't anywhere better for May to put him - and she certainly won't want him underemployed and stirring up trouble on the back benches,

Jobabob · October 2016

@Tyson @SeanT

Quite right. Weird how once libertarian rightwingers have suddenly become defenders of government meddling and snooping in the affairs of private businesses.

Chickens coming home to roost about the consequences of awakening the left-nativist anti-immigration dragon with their petty nationalist project.

tyson · October 2016

foxinsoxuk said:

tyson said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Cyclefree said:
Anyway, before I go off to bed and in case anyone still cares, the answer to my quiz fpt is Jack Straw and he made the comments at a conference exactly one month ago.
Remind us of the question please?

Otherwise it is all a bit Deep Thought!
I don't think I would be surprised of any quotes attributed to Jack Straw to be honest. He more than any other, reminds me of that geezer, whose name I have forgotten, who sorted out the railway system for Aushwitz, and then ended up getting nabbed by the Israeli's in Argentina.
Adolf Eichmann?

A bit harsh on Jack straw.

Yes, Eichmann....But Straw reminds me of him because Eichmann was typical of the jobsworth Nazis. I don't think he was at all evil. Eichmann was a competent jobsworth who was a party apparatchik and wanted to please his bosses.

That said, he deserved the noose, but all the Nazis did.

foxinsoxuk · October 2016

Tykejohnno said:
https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/791393996774006784

Some great links to other stories there too. It looks likethe Trumpster is at large in cyberspace:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2044694/woman-sexually-assaulted-in-virtual-reality-by-pervert-cyber-groper/

HYUFD · October 2016

tyson said:

Jobabob said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:
Asa thinks immigration is where May will compromise. While her performance as Home Secretary might support that, and I would be happy with a compromise on it, it seems like politically it is much better for her not to on that point.
She will almost certainly require a job offer to come to the uk rather than a points system, if that counts as a compromise
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3775069/No-job-t-Britain-s-blueprint-curb-EU-migrants-post-Brexit-revealed-rigorous-points-based-system.html
I know fellow Leavers who literally want every.
A small minority want
How is EU talent going to be encouraged to come to London if they need a firm job offer first? I prefer the existing system to May's pointless rigmarole
Obviously, people like Theresa May, or dare I say HYUFD (I could be wrong)., have done little recruitment in their time.

In the public sector I was reliant on HR to sort out the paperwork on recruitment. They have been decimated. Christ knows how much more complicated and convoluted the whole process will be with these madcap ideas thrown into the mix.

But...I feel particularly sorry for the entrepreneurs, the wealth creators who rely on access to labour, free markets, and liberalism. The ideas that May is contemplating is worthy of the Stasi. Bureaucracy and form after form.

I'm a lefty and I can see the kind of problems we are encountering. Surely it shouldn't be left to people like me to champion free market capitalism?

Well thankyou for that commentary from Italy but while free movement is fine for a wealthy upper middle class expat like you for the average blue collar worker in the north and midlands once it encompassed nations from the old Eastern Block it was not quite so promising in terms of their wages and pressure on public services etc. Now May is not going to repatriate such migrants or even impose a points system on them but simply require they get a job offer first, the idea that free movement can continue as it is after the Leave vote is a non-starter.

Pulpstar · October 2016

Scott_P said:

SeanT said:
I can see May sacking her Brexiteers before too long.
As long as Fox is first...

Tissue_Price said:
Since I'm probably personally extended enough on this market, would anyone care to price up Democratic majority control of the Senate subject to these rules?

A majority of seats requires either party to control at least 51 of the total 100 Senate seats as a result of the 34 seats to be contended at the 2016 US Senate elections. Independent or any other party Senators caucusing with either the Democrats or Republicans will NOT count for the purposes of this market.

Bernie Sanders and one of the other bods don't count as Democrats here I think. What are you backing/laying ?

foxinsoxuk · October 2016

HYUFD said:

tyson said:

Jobabob said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:
Asa thinks immigration is where May will compromise. While her performance as Home Secretary might support that, and I would be happy with a compromise on it, it seems like politically it is much better for her not to on that point.
She will almost certainly require a job offer to come to the uk rather than a points system, if that counts as a compromise
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3775069/No-job-t-Britain-s-blueprint-curb-EU-migrants-post-Brexit-revealed-rigorous-points-based-system.html
I know fellow Leavers who literally want every.
A small minority want
How is EU talent going to be encouraged to come to London if they need a firm job offer first? I prefer the existing system to May's pointless rigmarole
Obviously, people like Theresa May, or dare I say HYUFD (I could be wrong)., have done little recruitment in their time.

In the public sector I was reliant on HR to sort out the paperwork on recruitment. They have been decimated. Christ knows how much more complicated and convoluted the whole process will be with these madcap ideas thrown into the mix.

But...I feel particularly sorry for the entrepreneurs, the wealth creators who rely on access to labour, free markets, and liberalism. The ideas that May is contemplating is worthy of the Stasi. Bureaucracy and form after form.

I'm a lefty and I can see the kind of problems we are encountering. Surely it shouldn't be left to people like me to champion free market capitalism?
Well thankyou for that commentary from Italy but while free movement is fine for a wealthy upper middle class expat like you for the average blue collar worker in the north and midlands once it encompassed nations from the old Eastern Block it was not quite so promising in terms of their wages and pressure on public services etc. Now May is not going to repatriate such migrants or even impose a points system on them but simply require they get a job offer first, the idea that free movement can continue as it is after the Leave vote is a non-starter.

Job offers are easy to get, so not going to make a difference to the numbers.

Employment rates for EU migrants are very high...

Dromedary · October 2016

Trump's price at Betfair is holding up.

Clinton 1.215
Trump 5.95
Sanders 305
Pence 880
Biden 970

Wondering whether Clinton may have to get out of bed some time in the next 12 days to say something about Russia, Syria, and Iraq?

tyson said:
That said, he deserved the noose, but all the Nazis did.

That'd be about 9 million people in 1945. Are you a rope salesman or what?

SouthamObserver · October 2016

Black_Rook said:

Jobabob said:
Jesus wept. Have you ever been to London? Or anywhere?
Yes, smartarse.

Export of excess labour from poorer/struggling areas to wealthier/stronger ones is a fact of life. It happens within and between countries all the time. The difference between the current situation w.r.t. the UK and EU, and that which pertains after border control is re-established, is simply that the British Government will regain the means to control unwanted forms of immigration. It doesn't necessarily follow that it will, but the ability to elect a Government which can plausibly promise to use those tools is, at least, restored to the electorate.

There is no benefit to the UK in importing unemployed Spanish graduates to work as coffee shop baristas, least of all in London. No developed economy that is not only as relatively densely populated as ours, but also has a significant natural rate of population growth, should be importing more labour except to fill *essential* vacancies at home, once it has been demonstrated that the required employees cannot be provided by the domestic workforce.

Blimey - a command economy. The left has won.

Jobabob · October 2016

SouthamObserver said:

Black_Rook said:

Jobabob said:
Jesus wept. Have you ever been to London? Or anywhere?
Yes, smartarse.

Export of excess labour from poorer/struggling areas to wealthier/stronger ones is a fact of life. It happens within and between countries all the time. The difference between the current situation w.r.t. the UK and EU, and that which pertains after border control is re-established, is simply that the British Government will regain the means to control unwanted forms of immigration. It doesn't necessarily follow that it will, but the ability to elect a Government which can plausibly promise to use those tools is, at least, restored to the electorate.

There is no benefit to the UK in importing unemployed Spanish graduates to work as coffee shop baristas, least of all in London. No developed economy that is not only as relatively densely populated as ours, but also has a significant natural rate of population growth, should be importing more labour except to fill *essential* vacancies at home, once it has been demonstrated that the required employees cannot be provided by the domestic workforce.

Blimey - a command economy. The left has won.

It's a socialism, of sorts...

SouthamObserver · October 2016

SeanT said:

kle4 said:

Jobabob said:

SeanT said:

Jobabob said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:
Asa thinks immigration is where May will compromise. While her performance as Home Secretary might support that, and I would be happy with a compromise on it, it seems like politically it is much better for her not to on that point.
She will almost certainly require a job offer to come to the uk rather than a points system, if that counts as a compromise
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3775069/No-job-t-Britain-s-blueprint-curb-EU-migrants-post-Brexit-revealed-rigorous-points-based-system.html
I know fellow Leavers who literally want every Polish person to be told to leave, obviously for such extremes anything will be a compromise that will disappoint, I guess it'll be down to how much will she be able to say she can reduce immigration - she won't want to pin it down precisely, we know what difficulty that can lead to, but most people want immigration down quite a bit, they need to be confident anything proposed will manage that.
A small minoritt, if they refuse she will just say she could not offer any more and go to WTO terms for the time being
How is EU talent going to be encouraged to come to London if they need a firm job offer first? I prefer the existing system to May's pointless rigmarole
New York City seems to manage with a similar system. Likewise Singapore, Hong Kong, Tokyo, Sydney....
None of those cities are true world cities. London is the ONLY world city now. New York pales in comparison. And as for the rest? Pfft.
If it has no rival, surely that means even the imposition of pointless rigmarole would not have a detrimental effect so large it would be significant? I confess, I assumed your response would be to say it would not remain a World city if this system is brought in due to its rivals overtaking it.
I'm a big fan of London, and it is at the moment clearly superior to New York City, but it is a question of degree, not dimension. NYC has lots going for it, and could easily supplant London again, as the paramount city.... though I reckon Asia will provide the next great world city, not Europe, not America.

Hong Kong, Shanghai, Singapore? Probably Shanghai.

Not until non-Chinese people want to start living there in great numbers and are able to do so.

Andrew · October 2016

Roger said:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-will-he-win-us-presidential-election-2016-hillary-clinton-a7380621.html

That's classic over-fitting.

Scott_P · October 2016

Yes, Dan, I am sure all the people who wanted to "take back control" had massive bonuses for Big Pharma in mind...

https://twitter.com/danieljhannan/status/791399249904795648

HYUFD · October 2016

foxinsoxuk said:

HYUFD said:

tyson said:

Jobabob said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:
Asa thinks immigration is where May will compromise. While her performance as Home Secretary might support that, and I would be happy with a compromise on it, it seems like politically it is much better for her not to on that point.
She will almost certainly require a job offer to come to the uk rather than a points system, if that counts as a compromise
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3775069/No-job-t-Britain-s-blueprint-curb-EU-migrants-post-Brexit-revealed-rigorous-points-based-system.html
I know fellow Leavers who literally want every.
A small minority want
How is EU talent going to be encouraged to come to London if they need a firm job offer first? I prefer the existing system to May's pointless rigmarole
Obviously, people like Theresa May, or dare I say HYUFD (I could be wrong)., have done little recruitment in their time.

In the public sector I was reliant on HR to sort out the paperwork on recruitment. They have been decimated. Christ knows how much more complicated and convoluted the whole process will be with these madcap ideas thrown into the mix.

But...I feel particularly sorry for the entrepreneurs, the wealth creators who rely on access to labour, free markets, and liberalism. The ideas that May is contemplating is worthy of the Stasi. Bureaucracy and form after form.

I'm a lefty and I can see the kind of problems we are encountering. Surely it shouldn't be left to people like me to champion free market capitalism?
Well
Job offers are easy to get, so not going to make a difference to the numbers.

Employment rates for EU migrants are very high...

At the moment though EU migrants can come to the UK to live and claim benefits and look for a job without even having an offer first. As I said about 25% of the country ie hardcore Leavers, will not be happy and will provide the base for a revived Paul Nuttall led UKIP and the likes of Tyson and JobaBob and hardcore Remainers will not be happy either as it compromises free movement and will provide the base for the LD vote but 2/3 of the country or so I would say will accept such a proposal to try and get a trade deal from the EU

Scott_P · October 2016

@afneil: Hollande's ratings plummet to 4% approval. Had to double check. It's true. Amazing. Can he still be Socialist candidate?

SouthamObserver · October 2016

Jobabob said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:
Asa thinks immigration is where May will compromise. While her performance as Home Secretary might support that, and I would be happy with a compromise on it, it seems like politically it is much better for her not to on that point.
She will almost certainly require a job offer to come to the uk rather than a points system, if that counts as a compromise
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3775069/No-job-t-Britain-s-blueprint-curb-EU-migrants-post-Brexit-revealed-rigorous-points-based-system.html
I know fellow Leavers who literally want every Polish person to be told to leave, obviously for such extremes anything will be a compromise that will disappoint, I guess it'll be down to how much will she be able to say she can reduce immigration - she won't want to pin it down precisely, we know what difficulty that can lead to, but most people want immigration down quite a bit, they need to be confident anything proposed will manage that.
A small minority want migrants to leave and effectively end all immigration but even most of those who want immigration controlled do not want that. Her argument is requiring a job offer is more rigorous and effective than a points system, we shall see. As for a trade agreement, May will propose a job offer requirement and agree any trade deal the EU are willing to do based on that, if they refuse she will just say she could not offer any more and go to WTO terms for the time being
How is EU talent going to be encouraged to come to London if they need a firm job offer first? I prefer the existing system to May's pointless rigmarole

If you can come to a place as a tourist, get a job and then apply for a visa quickly without having to leave the country it's going to be fine. If you have to apply from home, fly in for an interview and then go back home to get your visa it will be hugely damaging.

Jobabob · October 2016

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

tyson said:

Jobabob said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:
Asa thinks immigration is where May will compromise. While her performance as Home Secretary might support that, and I would be happy with a compromise on it, it seems like politically it is much better for her not to on that point.
She will almost certainly require a job offer to come to the uk rather than a points system, if that counts as a compromise
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3775069/No-job-t-Britain-s-blueprint-curb-EU-migrants-post-Brexit-revealed-rigorous-points-based-system.html
I know fellow Leavers who literally want every.
A small minority want
How is EU talent going to be encouraged to come to London if they need a firm job offer first? I prefer the existing system to May's pointless rigmarole
Obviously, people like Theresa May, or dare I say HYUFD (I could be wrong)., have done little recruitment in their time.

In the public sector I was reliant on HR to sort out the paperwork on recruitment. They have been decimated. Christ knows how much more complicated and convoluted the whole process will be with these madcap ideas thrown into the mix.

But...I feel particularly sorry for the entrepreneurs, the wealth creators who rely on access to labour, free markets, and liberalism. The ideas that May is contemplating is worthy of the Stasi. Bureaucracy and form after form.

I'm a lefty and I can see the kind of problems we are encountering. Surely it shouldn't be left to people like me to champion free market capitalism?
Well thankyou for that commentary from SNIP in terms of their wages and pressure on public services etc. Now May is not going to repatriate such migrants or even impose a points system on them but simply require they get a job offer first, the idea that free movement can continue as it is after the Leave vote is a non-starter.
I doubt any society on earth has ever Federalised and allowed Free Movement with countries which are so much poorer, relatively - in the way the UK did, with Romania, Bulgaria, Slovakia etc

The enormous, damaging surge in migration was predictable. In retrospect.

Yes I was thinking exactly that when a very polite, highly skilled, punctual Slovakian builder did my kitchen a few months back. And similarly this weekend, when a very polite, highly skilled, punctual Polish plasterer fixed up my hall.

Actually, I lie. I didn't think that at all, and in fact worried that nativist morons will try to send these nice guys back to where they came from.

Barnesian · October 2016

Pulpstar said:

Scott_P said:

SeanT said:
I can see May sacking her Brexiteers before too long.
As long as Fox is first...

Tissue_Price said:
Since I'm probably personally extended enough on this market, would anyone care to price up Democratic majority control of the Senate subject to these rules?

A majority of seats requires either party to control at least 51 of the total 100 Senate seats as a result of the 34 seats to be contended at the 2016 US Senate elections. Independent or any other party Senators caucusing with either the Democrats or Republicans will NOT count for the purposes of this market.
Bernie Sanders and one of the other bods don't count as Democrats here I think. What are you backing/laying ?

There are two independents who caucus with the Democrats - Bernie Sanders and Angus King - so the Democrats plus independents need to total 53+ to satisfy Democrat majority control according to the Betfair rules.

Nate Silver currently has the chance of Democrats (incl independents) having 53+ as 21.9% i.e. 4.57 in Betfair speak. On Betfair, it is currently 2.2 to 2.68 so it is a definite lay. Perhaps punters don't really understand the rules.

However, as always, DYOR.

foxinsoxuk · October 2016

Dromedary said:
Trump's price at Betfair is holding up.

Clinton 1.215
Trump 5.95
Sanders 305
Pence 880
Biden 970

Wondering whether Clinton may have to get out of bed some time in the next 12 days to say something about Russia, Syria, and Iraq?

tyson said:
That said, he deserved the noose, but all the Nazis did.
That'd be about 9 million people in 1945. Are you a rope salesman or what?

Hillary is campaigning in Florida today, North Carolina tommorow and Iowa on Friday according to her website.

https://hillaryspeeches.com/scheduled-events/

Cyclefree · October 2016

Another earthquake in central Italy, centred on Ussito and affecting Rome and with the tremors felt in Naples.

I worry about an earthquake / Vesuvius eruption combination.

Jobabob · October 2016

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

tyson said:

Jobabob said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:
Asa thinks immigration is where May will compromise. While her performance as Home Secretary might support that, and I would be happy with a compromise on it, it seems like politically it is much better for her not to on that point.
She will almost certainly require a job offer to come to the uk rather than a points system, if that counts as a compromise
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3775069/No-job-t-Britain-s-blueprint-curb-EU-migrants-post-Brexit-revealed-rigorous-points-based-system.html
I know fellow Leavers who literally want every.
A small minority want
How is EU talent going to be encouraged to come to London if they need a firm job offer first? I prefer the existing system to May's pointless rigmarole
Obviously, people like Theresa May, or dare I say HYUFD (I could be wrong)., have done little recruitment in their time.

In the public sector I was reliant on HR to sort out the paperwork on recruitment. They have been decimated. Christ knows how much more complicated and convoluted the whole process will be with these madcap ideas thrown into the mix.

But...I feel particularly sorry for the entrepreneurs, the wealth creators who rely on access to labour, free markets, and liberalism. The ideas that May is contemplating is worthy of the Stasi. Bureaucracy and form after form.

I'm a lefty and I can see the kind of problems we are encountering. Surely it shouldn't be left to people like me to champion free market capitalism?
Well thankyou for that commentary from Italy but while free movement is fine for a wealthy upper middle class expat like you for the average blue collar worker in the north and midlands once it encompassed nations from the old Eastern Block it was not quite so promising in terms of their wages and pressure on public services etc. Now May is not going to repatriate such migrants or even impose a points system on them but simply require they get a job offer first, the idea that free movement can continue as it is after the Leave vote is a non-starter.
I doubt any society on earth has ever Federalised and allowed Free Movement with countries which are so much poorer, relatively - in the way the UK did, with Romania, Bulgaria, Slovakia etc

The enormous, damaging surge in migration was predictable. In retrospect.

Our two lovely receptionists are Polish and Estonian. That damaging surge in migration again.

SouthamObserver · October 2016

SeanT said:

Jobabob said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:
Asa thinks immigration is where May will compromise. While her performance as Home Secretary might support that, and I would be happy with a compromise on it, it seems like politically it is much better for her not to on that point.
She will almost certainly require a job offer to come to the uk rather than a points system, if that counts as a compromise
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3775069/No-job-t-Britain-s-blueprint-curb-EU-migrants-post-Brexit-revealed-rigorous-points-based-system.html
I know fellow Leavers who literally want every Polish person to be told to leave, obviously for such extremes anything will be a compromise that will disappoint, I guess it'll be down to how much will she be able to say she can reduce immigration - she won't want to pin it down precisely, we know what difficulty that can lead to, but most people want immigration down quite a bit, they need to be confident anything proposed will manage that.
A small minority want migrants to leave and effectively end all immigration but even most of those who want immigration controlled do not want that. Her argument is requiring a job offer is more rigorous and effective than a points system, we shall see. As for a trade agreement, May will propose a job offer requirement and agree any trade deal the EU are willing to do based on that, if they refuse she will just say she could not offer any more and go to WTO terms for the time being
How is EU talent going to be encouraged to come to London if they need a firm job offer first? I prefer the existing system to May's pointless rigmarole
New York City seems to manage with a similar system. Likewise Singapore, Hong Kong, Tokyo, Sydney....

NY has a talent pool of 300 million to draw from visa-free. We recruit in Hong Kong and it is very difficult because of the immigration restrictions. Finding people that specialise in our area and can write about it in good English takes months at a time.

tyson · October 2016

@SeanT

What May is proposing is a hell of alot more complicated (times 1000) than the likes of Germany simply putting a control over the ascension of new countries for a period. We have those in place at the moment that manages our immigration from outside the EU.

Probably 99% of businesses who employ over say 30 staff would like easy access to consider EU staff without jumping through hoop after hoop.

HYUFD · October 2016

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

tyson said:

Jobabob said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:
Asa thinks immigration is where May will compromise. While her performance as Home Secretary might support that, and I would be happy with a compromise on it, it seems like politically it is much better for her not to on that point.
She will almost certainly require a job offer to come to the uk rather than a points system, if that counts as a compromise
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3775069/No-job-t-Britain-s-blueprint-curb-EU-migrants-post-Brexit-revealed-rigorous-points-based-system.html
I know fellow Leavers who literally want every.
A small minority want
How is EU talent going to be encouraged to come to London if they need a firm job offer first? I prefer the existing system to May's pointless rigmarole
Obviously, people like Theresa May, or dare I say HYUFD (I could be wrong)., have done little recruitment in their time.

In the public sector I was reliant on HR to sort out the paperwork on recruitment. They have been decimated. Christ knows how much more complicated and convoluted the whole process will be with these madcap ideas thrown into the mix.

But...I feel particularly sorry for the entrepreneurs, the wealth creators who rely on access to labour, free markets, and liberalism. The ideas that May is contemplating is worthy of the Stasi. Bureaucracy and form after form.

I'm a lefty and I can see the kind of problems we are encountering. Surely it shouldn't be left to people like me to champion free market capitalism?
Well thankyou for that commentary from Italy but while free movement is fine for a wealthy upper middle class expat like you for the average blue collar worker in the north and midlands once it encompassed nations from the old Eastern Block it was not quite so promising in terms of their wages and pressure on public services etc. Now May is not going to repatriate such migrants or even impose a points system on them but simply require they get a job offer first, the idea that free movement can continue as it is after the Leave vote is a non-starter.
I doubt any society on earth has ever Federalised and allowed Free Movement with countries which are so much poorer, relatively - in the way the UK did, with Romania, Bulgaria, Slovakia etc

The enormous, damaging surge in migration was predictable. In retrospect.

Indeed, one of Blair's greatest mistakes was not to impose a break on migrants from Eastern Europe on their accession to the EU in 2004 (other than a few benefits restrictions). Sweden and the UK and Ireland were the only EU nations which did not do so

Jobabob · October 2016

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

Jobabob said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:
Asa thinks immigration is where May will compromise. While her performance as Home Secretary might support that, and I would be happy with a compromise on it, it seems like politically it is much better for her not to on that point.
She will almost certainly require a job offer to come to the uk rather than a points system, if that counts as a compromise
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3775069/No-job-t-Britain-s-blueprint-curb-EU-migrants-post-Brexit-revealed-rigorous-points-based-system.html
I know fellow Leavers who literally want every Polish person to be told to leave, obviously for such extremes anything will be a compromise that will disappoint, I guess it'll be down to how much will she be able to say she can reduce immigration - she won't want to pin it down precisely, we know what difficulty that can lead to, but most people want immigration down quite a bit, they need to be confident anything proposed will manage that.
A small minority want migrants to leave and effectively end all immigration but even most of those who want immigration controlled do not want that. Her argument is requiring a job offer is more rigorous and effective than a points system, we shall see. As for a trade agreement, May will propose a job offer requirement and agree any trade deal the EU are willing to do based on that, if they refuse she will just say she could not offer any more and go to WTO terms for the time being
How is EU talent going to be encouraged to come to London if they need a firm job offer first? I prefer the existing system to May's pointless rigmarole
New York City seems to manage with a similar system. Likewise Singapore, Hong Kong, Tokyo, Sydney....

NY has a talent pool of 300 million to draw from visa-free. We recruit in Hong Kong and it is very difficult because of the immigration restrictions. Finding people that specialise in our area and can write about it in good English takes months at a time.

Quite so. I have been hiring for the most junior role in our business for two months.

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