politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The chances of Mrs May getting her own way on the Article 50 r

HurstLlama said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

HurstLlama said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Show respect you bloody Jocks.

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/785843610185003012

Britannia is a female persona, no?

Avast, Cap'n Doc! You of all people should know that all ships are female (because, possibly, they are beautiful, capricious, and steal men's souls) and so are referred to as "she". Except, I am told in Russia, where they are held to be masculine, which raises some interesting questions.

Belike, else.

Ahoy, Mr Llama! I do know that! But I do find it odd that ships named after men should be "female". Surely Hood, Prince of Wales, Duke of York, Nelson and Rodney should be referred to as "he"!

Should a lady called Hillary or Vivian be referred to as "He"? Of course not, a lady is a lady regardless of her name.

Avast, Mr Llama!

Admirals Hood, Anson, Rodney and Nelson were all blokes last time I checked!

Aaaaarrrrrrr!

williamglenn said:

TGOHF said:

Scott_P said:

TGOHF said:

link those to Brexit.

Oh...

The one on the left is literally a debate about Brexit

Oh...

Are royal yachts banned for EU members ?

Surely there's some decree banning vessels designed for the solicitation of trade agreements?

If you can't do trade agreements.....well there's really no point. I wonder if that swayed the Queen at all in her opinions on European integration in the late 90's ;-)

PlatoSaid said:

MarqueeMark said:

PlatoSaid said:

Scott_P said:

PlatoSaid said:

Hannan hates foreigners? What idiotic tosh.

Nobody said Hannan hates foreigners.

The campaign was won by the message "We hate resent foreigners"

Dan, and the others Brexit cheerleaders who deny that fact, are idiots.

Your heroic retweeting of Ian Dunt and Rupert Myers has convinced me. Oh and Hugo Rifkind.

Seriously. It's not convincing anyone like me. And I suspect 98% of others either way. The vote happened and Remain LOST.

We are seeing just how much the Remainers have already been infected by the EU Disease.

"Keep voting - until you get the right result".

I wonder if they will ever have the honesty to admit that we are leaving - and then fully campaign to rejoin. Euro and European Army and all....

In fact, to acknowledge the inevitable departure of the UK from the EU, I shall now stop calling them Remainers and start calling them Rejoiners.....

That's a good term. I'm bored beyond tears of the crying - what argument are they making now?

I get bored by your whining.

Ishmael_X said:

logical_song said:

Ishmael_X said:

TOPPING said:

Dromedary said:

Ishmael_X said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Here's a luvvie who REALLY hates Hillary.

https://twitter.com/therealroseanne

Lots of pro Israel, anti Muslim, anti immigrant/migrant stuff with a seasoning of watery Trump exoneration.

Inneressing point she makes: google the one word "rapist" and see what you get in images, and in all results. If this is manipulation by trumpers, frightening that it is doable and extraordinary that google haven't done anything about it.

Uh? You're not grasping what's happening. Google ARE doing something: they are filling your browser window with anti-Clinton (i.e. pro-Trump) material when you search on the word "rapist". They did the same to me, and they're probably doing the same to many people. Sounds as though they're helping Trump in quite a big way.

Now try doing the same search using an engine run by a less underhand company, for example DuckDuckGo, who choose what results to give you without using any information about you and who, some might say, aren't as evil as Google. (Click here to do a DuckDuckGo search on "rapist".) They do serve anti-Clinton material, at items 5 and 9, and an anti-Trump piece at item 13, and then a piece at item 54 that talks of how Bill Clinton responded to an accusation that he is a rapist. But they don't fill the window with anti-Clinton material.

Why on earth would anyone search on the word "rapist"?

One letter less to type than Clinton?

But one more than Trump.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/donald-trump-ex-wife-claim-he-raped-her-resurfaces-in-new-documentary-a6836151.html
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-accused-underage-rape-lawsuit-a7352976.html

But the gag doesn't actually work with "one more letter", does it? There really is no need to go into instant yebuttal mode. Trump v Clinton is not a fight in which I, or I imagine you, have a dog.

Just give me the facts.

MikeSmithson said:

PlatoSaid said:

MarqueeMark said:

PlatoSaid said:

Scott_P said:

PlatoSaid said:

Hannan hates foreigners? What idiotic tosh.

Nobody said Hannan hates foreigners.

The campaign was won by the message "We hate resent foreigners"

Dan, and the others Brexit cheerleaders who deny that fact, are idiots.

Your heroic retweeting of Ian Dunt and Rupert Myers has convinced me. Oh and Hugo Rifkind.

Seriously. It's not convincing anyone like me. And I suspect 98% of others either way. The vote happened and Remain LOST.

We are seeing just how much the Remainers have already been infected by the EU Disease.

"Keep voting - until you get the right result".

I wonder if they will ever have the honesty to admit that we are leaving - and then fully campaign to rejoin. Euro and European Army and all....

In fact, to acknowledge the inevitable departure of the UK from the EU, I shall now stop calling them Remainers and start calling them Rejoiners.....

That's a good term. I'm bored beyond tears of the crying - what argument are they making now?

I get bored by your whining.

Hear hear.

MikeSmithson said:

PlatoSaid said:

MarqueeMark said:

PlatoSaid said:

Scott_P said:

PlatoSaid said:

Hannan hates foreigners? What idiotic tosh.

Nobody said Hannan hates foreigners.

The campaign was won by the message "We hate resent foreigners"

Dan, and the others Brexit cheerleaders who deny that fact, are idiots.

Your heroic retweeting of Ian Dunt and Rupert Myers has convinced me. Oh and Hugo Rifkind.

Seriously. It's not convincing anyone like me. And I suspect 98% of others either way. The vote happened and Remain LOST.

We are seeing just how much the Remainers have already been infected by the EU Disease.

"Keep voting - until you get the right result".

I wonder if they will ever have the honesty to admit that we are leaving - and then fully campaign to rejoin. Euro and European Army and all....

In fact, to acknowledge the inevitable departure of the UK from the EU, I shall now stop calling them Remainers and start calling them Rejoiners.....

That's a good term. I'm bored beyond tears of the crying - what argument are they making now?

I get bored by your whining.

PB's Remoaner in chief speaks

JosiasJessop said:

PlatoSaid said:

JosiasJessop said:

PlatoSaid said:

JosiasJessop said:

The defence of 'He's a foreigner, he cannot hate foreigners' should be consigned to the same dustbin (some might think of it as a 'liberal dustbin') as phrases like 'only whites can be racist' or 'only men can be sexist'.

Though I'm certain this is not the case for Hannan, it's perfectly possible to be a foreigner and hate other foreigners. As an example (of dislike, not hatred): a friend of mine is originally from an EU country, and she voted for Brexit because too many people from her birth country were entering and getting free housing ...

I don't know what's happened to you re illness - but your post re me are really odd.

Perhaps, better to ignore them entirely. I wish you and family well.

Plato, it is nothing to do with my illness, and it's slightly odd that you keep on mentioning it, as if I've somehow changed. Perhaps you ought to consider if you're the one with an issue, rather than me.

I also fail to see why you take my post above as an attack on you: it seems perfectly sensible, does it not? I would have made it (and indeed have made a similar point in the past) to other posters.

It'll be a shame if you put me on ignore. We've got on well in the past.

Thanks for the well wishes.

You were a congenial chap - and then became rather passive aggressive - you started before 0630 today as an example.

It's something you've done for weeks and didn't before - hence I presume it's you're illness. Either way - just ignore my posts - rubbishing me before 0630 looks odd for merely expressing my opinion.

Again, you mention my illness!

I suggest you look at yourself, rather than looking for flaws in others. Perhaps we should take this to PM?

As for before 06.30: I'm a morning person, and I had the morning shift when the little 'un awoke early. And I was quite happy.

Be careful, Josias. The morning shift on here is a dark, dangerous and weird place.

That said, it seems to go on all bloody day nowadays.

RobD said:

MikeSmithson said:

PlatoSaid said:

MarqueeMark said:

PlatoSaid said:

Scott_P said:

PlatoSaid said:

Hannan hates foreigners? What idiotic tosh.

Nobody said Hannan hates foreigners.

The campaign was won by the message "We hate resent foreigners"

Dan, and the others Brexit cheerleaders who deny that fact, are idiots.

Your heroic retweeting of Ian Dunt and Rupert Myers has convinced me. Oh and Hugo Rifkind.

Seriously. It's not convincing anyone like me. And I suspect 98% of others either way. The vote happened and Remain LOST.

We are seeing just how much the Remainers have already been infected by the EU Disease.

"Keep voting - until you get the right result".

I wonder if they will ever have the honesty to admit that we are leaving - and then fully campaign to rejoin. Euro and European Army and all....

In fact, to acknowledge the inevitable departure of the UK from the EU, I shall now stop calling them Remainers and start calling them Rejoiners.....

That's a good term. I'm bored beyond tears of the crying - what argument are they making now?

I get bored by your whining.

More AV threads would do wonders for PB unity.... just sayin'

That's the great thing about AV - it makes sure that a majority is always happy

Big_G_NorthWales said:

No - they voted for sovereignty and that is what an increasing majority will demand

And sovereignty is delivered...

https://twitter.com/imbadatlife/status/785864200245698560

@not_on_fire

" People who voted Leave believe currently believe there *is* no cost..."

Rubbish, Mr. Fire. I voted to leave and I believe no such thing. Nor, I might add, did anything said by either side in the campaign affect my decision in any way at all.

Patrick said:

Scott_P said:

Patrick said:

What about big, proud, open, expansive, trade based, internationally engaging nationalism? Your comment seems to suggest anyone who is proud of their country and wishes for it to become a better country but still a country (as opposed to an administrative region of a superstate) is somehow compromised.

Anyone who claims the vote was not won by the message "we hate foreigners" is an idiot.

Like Dan Hannan.

Oh you're dead right that that was the deciding factor - ruthlessly exploited by those who were fighting for the same result but different reasons. The 'freedom' vote has been surpressed by the establishment for 40 years. Vote Leave took their chance. I crawled across broken glass to vote leave. But would be entirely happy with a soft Brexit. All my relatives who voted remain did so despite their intrinsic dislike and distrust of the EU because they were persuaded by Project Fear. All have since told me they'd vote leave if it was rerun today.

I would however somewhat dispute your choice of the word 'hate'. I think 'resent' is better. It's not a 'yuk Romanian untermensch' view so much as a 'why am I at the back of the housing, school places, GP slots, jobs queue with all these Romanians in town' view. For some that morphs into hate. But not for most.

I thought the current narrative is gay hating was the deciding factor.

It's just so hard to heep up at times.

TGOHF said:

Scott_P said:

TGOHF said:

link those to Brexit.

Oh...

The one on the left is literally a debate about Brexit

Oh...

Are royal yachts banned for EU members ?

The Danish have a rather fine one. I saw it while recently in Denmark:

http://www.navalhistory.dk/English/TheShips/D/Dannebrog(1932).htm

Perhaps if we ask nicely then they would let us borrow it.

notme said:

not_on_fire said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The remainers just do not understand that the people will not accept anything less than UK laws made in Parliament and judged by our own judiciary no matter the cost.

And it's called democracy

That's an incredibly strong assumption. People who voted Leave believe currently believe there *is* no cost, as they were promised sunlit uplands as an economic superpower with huge bags of dosh for the NHS. When the reality starts to bite they may start to question this. We'll get the first taste of this soon when the GBP slump starts to feed into petrol prices.

The flaw in that argument is that the price of petrol at the pumps is made up so much of tax, that the price of oil has only marginal impact on the price at the pump.

Hmmm - why has the price of a litre of petrol gone up by over 10% in the last year or so?

not_on_fire said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The remainers just do not understand that the people will not accept anything less than UK laws made in Parliament and judged by our own judiciary no matter the cost.

And it's called democracy

That's an incredibly strong assumption. People who voted Leave believe currently believe there *is* no cost, as they were promised sunlit uplands as an economic superpower with huge bags of dosh for the NHS. When the reality starts to bite they may start to question this. We'll get the first taste of this soon when the GBP slump starts to feed into petrol prices.

Do they? This Leave voter doesn't.

I expect neither economic disaster, nor economic nirvana. But, the British economy does have problems which will need sorting.

PlatoSaid said:

JosiasJessop said:

PlatoSaid said:

JosiasJessop said:

The defence of 'He's a foreigner, he cannot hate foreigners' should be consigned to the same dustbin (some might think of it as a 'liberal dustbin') as phrases like 'only whites can be racist' or 'only men can be sexist'.

Though I'm certain this is not the case for Hannan, it's perfectly possible to be a foreigner and hate other foreigners. As an example (of dislike, not hatred): a friend of mine is originally from an EU country, and she voted for Brexit because too many people from her birth country were entering and getting free housing ...

I don't know what's happened to you re illness - but your post re me are really odd.

Perhaps, better to ignore them entirely. I wish you and family well.

Plato, it is nothing to do with my illness, and it's slightly odd that you keep on mentioning it, as if I've somehow changed. Perhaps you ought to consider if you're the one with an issue, rather than me.

I also fail to see why you take my post above as an attack on you: it seems perfectly sensible, does it not? I would have made it (and indeed have made a similar point in the past) to other posters.

It'll be a shame if you put me on ignore. We've got on well in the past.

Thanks for the well wishes.

As an outsider - you've become passive aggressive and rude. You didn't used to be like this. I even asked PB Mods to enquire after your health when you disappeared.

Before 7am today, you rubbished my input on a subject I'd greater knowledge of.

Seriously - it may be uncomfortable feedback - however you aren't the man I talked about lighthouses with a few months ago. You've been gratuitously rude to me several times out of the blue.

If you dislike me - fair enough, but it's a noticeable difference. Either way - skip by for everyone's sake.

Says the troll.

Is anyone following the debate on Syria?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37614554

FPT I have to admit that the one policy area where I agree with Trump is about Syria.

He thinks Aleppo is gone and that we should join Russia and Assad to defeat ISIS. I agree with that.

I am very suspicious of the West's motives in supporting the disparate rebel groups against Assad in the first place. Read what Robert F Kennedy Jr has to say about that:
http://www.politico.eu/article/why-the-arabs-dont-want-us-in-syria-mideast-conflict-oil-intervention/

The way to stop the killing and for people to able to return home is for the war to stop. That will only happen if one side wins. Only Assad can win.

What he is doing to Aleppo is horrendous - a war crime in my view. It is morally equivalent to Dresden and Hiroshima in killing hundreds of thousands of innocents to shorten the war and thereby save more lives than those taken. I don't buy that argument for Aleppo, Dresden or Hiroshima. As I said, Trump thinks Aleppo is gone:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2016/live-updates/general-election/real-time-fact-checking-and-analysis-of-the-2nd-2016-presidential-debate/trump-disagrees-with-pence-on-syria-says-aleppo-is-gone/

I hope he is right and the war ends soon.

Clinton could prolong it. That's my main concern about her presidency.

FF43 said:

As a mild republican .

I think there's a cream for that

ThreeQuidder said:

JosiasJessop said:

TOPPING said:

JosiasJessop said:

Mortimer said:

Not at all Mr Walker.

The headbangers want to frustrate at every turn. They are willing a bad deal on the country through wailing and gnashing their ineffective gums.

And they need to be slapped down. This, the weakest argument in their canon, can be countered by putting some stick about within the party. This can be doing by suggesting party unity is what kelps them in a job. In more ways than one. Deselection, danger of electoral defeat and withdrawing the whip are the tools for the job.

However, this is about much more than party. The country is in a rather perilous position, and the sooner we know what the final settlement will be, the better for everyone. It might be that a good deal that takes five years to negotiate might be much worse than a poorer deal concluded quickly, because the interim uncertainty *will* damage us.

Hockey stick recoveries are rarely achieved in the time frame originally (and optimistically) modelled.

I'm not sure if that comment's meant to agree or disagree with mine ...

It needed an "indeed"

oh oops...

Edit: what was the ruling on smileys again? Was it ok if to annoy @tyson otherwise no?

FF43 said:

As a mild republican I think queens should have royal yachts. What's the point of the monarchy if they aren't monarchical and go in for a bit of bling?

But the idea that Britannia sails into foreign ports, the Queen charms the local despot over G&Ts on a barmy evening on deck and said potentate signs up there and then for a Free Trade Agreement, where his fleabitten territory has to import Austin Allegro cars at zero tariffs, surely must be the weirdest of Brexit weirdness.

Has anyone seen a Free Trade Agreement? They run to more than a thousand pages, each of which is haggled to death by armies of civil servants, lawyers and politicians.

More likely one can sweet talk said despot into laundering some of his money in the UK, or buying a few jets.

MTimT said:

MikeSmithson said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

LEAVE 17,410,742
REMAIN 16,141,241

Minimal - a swing of 1.3% would have had it the other way.

Some 1.3% swings are more equal than others.

A 1.3% swing among 33 million votes is a much bigger ask than a 1.3% swing in 50,000 votes. Discuss.

Not really. It is just that target population is bigger. On your logic no election in a small country would ever count for anything.

MTimT said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

MikeSmithson said:

PlatoSaid said:

MarqueeMark said:

PlatoSaid said:

Scott_P said:

PlatoSaid said:

Hannan hates foreigners? What idiotic tosh.

Nobody said Hannan hates foreigners.

The campaign was won by the message "We hate resent foreigners"

Dan, and the others Brexit cheerleaders who deny that fact, are idiots.

Your heroic retweeting of Ian Dunt and Rupert Myers has convinced me. Oh and Hugo Rifkind.

Seriously. It's not convincing anyone like me. And I suspect 98% of others either way. The vote happened and Remain LOST.

We are seeing just how much the Remainers have already been infected by the EU Disease.

"Keep voting - until you get the right result".

I wonder if they will ever have the honesty to admit that we are leaving - and then fully campaign to rejoin. Euro and European Army and all....

In fact, to acknowledge the inevitable departure of the UK from the EU, I shall now stop calling them Remainers and start calling them Rejoiners.....

That's a good term. I'm bored beyond tears of the crying - what argument are they making now?

I get bored by your whining.

PB's Remoaner in chief speaks

Time for a long break from PB, methinks.

Oh, Mike's just been on holiday

taffys said:

CapX has a brilliant essay by Graham Brady on the glaring injustices already wrought by the European Arrest Warrant, injustices which UK citizens will thankfully soon be no longer exposed to.

Possibly they won't be exposed to it. But I wouldn't count on it - we need some extradition arrangement with our EU friends, and it's almost certainly the only deal on offer. It's going to be incredibly hard to get anything different agreed - they won't want to make a special arrangement just for us. I think we should probably aim at signing into it but with a UK court escape hatch for specific cases.

Sean_F said:

FF43 said:

As a mild republican I think queens should have royal yachts. What's the point of the monarchy if they aren't monarchical and go in for a bit of bling?

But the idea that Britannia sails into foreign ports, the Queen charms the local despot over G&Ts on a barmy evening on deck and said potentate signs up there and then for a Free Trade Agreement, where his fleabitten territory has to import Austin Allegro cars at zero tariffs, surely must be the weirdest of Brexit weirdness.

Has anyone seen a Free Trade Agreement? They run to more than a thousand pages, each of which is haggled to death by armies of civil servants, lawyers and politicians.

More likely one can sweet talk said despot into laundering some of his money in the UK, or buying a few jets.

Hopefully it's not Tornados bombing Yemen?

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Mortimer said:

JosiasJessop said:

Mortimer said:

Not at all Mr Walker.

The headbangers want to frustrate at every turn. They are willing a bad deal on the country through wailing and gnashing their ineffective gums.

And they need to be slapped down. This, the weakest argument in their canon, can be countered by putting some stick about within the party. This can be doing by suggesting party unity is what kelps them in a job. In more ways than one. Deselection, danger of electoral defeat and withdrawing the whip are the tools for the job.

Oddly, those tools were not used against the Europhobic 'bastards' (headbangers) who ruined the party in the nineties and naughties. Party unity meant nothing to them, and they (generally) kept their jobs. As with Corbyn, the disloyal demanding loyalty will be laughed at.

However, this is about much more than party. The country is in a rather perilous position, and the sooner we know what the final settlement will be, the better for everyone. It might be that a good deal that takes five years to negotiate might be much worse than a poorer deal concluded quickly, because the interim uncertainty *will* damage us.

Both Europhobes and Europhiles need to be thinking about the good of the country, not their own beliefs.

It is exactly because the new headbangers so affects the future of this country that May would be much more likely to put some stick about than Major ever would have done....

The fact that Majors bastards had a lot of sympathy and support from the membership and this lot dont is also pertinent.

Very true. The new bastards have few supporters in the membership. They are an out of touch, unhinged group of europhile nutters. Flapping coats anyone?

Article 50 is to trigger the start of negotiations for which we've already voted for, it is not about what form of Brexit we have which Parliament can and must vote on at the end of negotiations.

If negotiations haven't started by end of June then that would be absurd and would be seriously annoying our neighbours too. Stop messing around.

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Mortimer said:

JosiasJessop said:

Mortimer said:

Not at all Mr Walker.

The headbangers want to frustrate at every turn. They are willing a bad deal on the country through wailing and gnashing their ineffective gums.

And they need to be slapped down. This, the weakest argument in their canon, can be countered by putting some stick about within the party. This can be doing by suggesting party unity is what kelps them in a job. In more ways than one. Deselection, danger of electoral defeat and withdrawing the whip are the tools for the job.

Oddly, those tools were not used against the Europhobic 'bastards' (headbangers) who ruined the party in the nineties and naughties. Party unity meant nothing to them, and they (generally) kept their jobs. As with Corbyn, the disloyal demanding loyalty will be laughed at.

However, this is about much more than party. The country is in a rather perilous position, and the sooner we know what the final settlement will be, the better for everyone. It might be that a good deal that takes five years to negotiate might be much worse than a poorer deal concluded quickly, because the interim uncertainty *will* damage us.

Both Europhobes and Europhiles need to be thinking about the good of the country, not their own beliefs.

It is exactly because the new headbangers so affects the future of this country that May would be much more likely to put some stick about than Major ever would have done....

The fact that Majors bastards had a lot of sympathy and support from the membership and this lot dont is also pertinent.

Very true. The new bastards have few supporters in the membership. They are an out of touch, unhinged group of europhile nutters. Flapping coats anyone?

And they are also, two of them, in government responsible for Brexit.

PlatoSaid said:

As an outsider - you've become passive aggressive and rude. You didn't used to be like this. I even asked PB Mods to enquire after your health when you disappeared.

Before 7am today, you rubbished my input on a subject I'd greater knowledge of.

Seriously - it may be uncomfortable feedback - however you aren't the man I talked about lighthouses with a few months ago. You've been gratuitously rude to me several times out of the blue.

If you dislike me - fair enough, but it's a noticeable difference. Either way - skip by for everyone's sake.

Oh lordy. You really need to look into a mirror when it comes to gratuitous rudeness. But this is a forum, and is to some extent sadly to be expected. Meanings get lost on-line that don't face-to-face.

Before GE 2015 you and I were much of a mind on many things. In particular, we both wanted Cameron and the Conservatives to form the government. We may have had different reasons - though my wish for a referendum was one reason for me - but we were heading in the same direction.

This may be 'uncomfortable feedback' to you, but it's fair to say that since the EU referendum, you've taken a hard swing to the right. Exaggerating slightly, your ramping of Farage and cult-like fondness for Trump, along with your support for Leadsom, might make one or two lifetime UKIPpers spit out their coffee as being too right-wing.

I might have a few less brain cells than I had (or they may be miswired), but I haven't particularly changed politically. You have.

Perhaps that, rather than my illness, might be at a root cause of our regrettable conflicts.

If you wish to discuss lighthouses, trains, electronics, programming, or yes, even cats, feel free.

ThreeQuidder said:

Scott_P said:

Brexit in all its Parliamentary glory...

https://twitter.com/sebastianepayne/status/785856628197294080

There are more people in the picture on the right than in the picture on the left.

Plus one is in committee while the other is just showing the opposition benches in the Commons. Weird photo mix.

Philip_Thompson said:

ThreeQuidder said:

Scott_P said:

Brexit in all its Parliamentary glory...

https://twitter.com/sebastianepayne/status/785856628197294080

There are more people in the picture on the right than in the picture on the left.

Plus one is in committee while the other is just showing the opposition benches in the Commons. Weird photo mix.

I wonder how many people on the other side of the Chamber?

YBarddCwsc said:

Ukraine borders directly on the EU.

I have zero confidence that the EU could cope with another massive refugee crisis.

Although there will be a delicious irony in countries like Hungary & Slovakia being overwhelmed with refugees from the Ukraine, and asking the EU for help in re-settling them.

There are huge numbers of refugees from Ukraine in Poland and Hungary already (not to mention Russia). Nobody notices or objects because, well, they're European.

foxinsoxuk said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Barnesian said:

Is anyone following the debate on Syria?e/

Clinton could prolong it. That's my main concern about her presidency.

Clinton could start a new war in the Ukraine. That’s my main concern about her presidency.

Trump is quite likely to allow a new war in Korea and is dead keen on a trade war with everyone.

That is my main concern.

I think we can all start from a position that both parties have provided the electorate with candidates who are sub-optimal.

I started out more not-Hillary than not-Trump, because Trump was more unknown, and perhaps not nearly as bad as he was painted in a kind of Reagan-esque way. But I have become more not-Trump than not-Hillary, largely because I fear Trump's commitment to NATO. But also because he appears to be - and I concede that this may just be my perception from this side of the Atlantic filtered by a hostile media - a horrible person on a quite unprecedented scale and incapable of interacting with other humans in a normal way.

None of the above implies however that I would view the prospect of a Hillary presidency with any happiness save that the result could have been differently awful.

JohnLoony said:

MikeSmithson said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

LEAVE 17,410,742
REMAIN 16,141,241

Minimal - a swing of 1.3% would have had it the other way.

A swing of 1.3% from 51.9 : 48.1 would result in 50.6 : 49.4 , in other words, Leave would still have won. Your maths is even worse than your remoaning.

Ouch!

Alanbrooke said:

YBarddCwsc said:

foxinsoxuk said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Barnesian said:

Is anyone following the debate on Syria?e/

Clinton could prolong it. That's my main concern about her presidency.

Clinton could start a new war in the Ukraine. That’s my main concern about her presidency.

Trump is quite likely to allow a new war in Korea and is dead keen on a trade war with everyone.

That is my main concern.

Perhaps. But a war in the Ukraine is a more worrisome prospect for Europe.

Ukraine borders directly on the EU.

I have zero confidence that the EU could cope with another massive refugee crisis.

Although there will be a delicious irony in countries like Hungary & Slovakia being overwhelmed with refugees from the Ukraine, and asking the EU for help in re-settling them.

The Ukraine just has the wrong borders, it has too many ethnic russians in the East, The only way to sort it out is a plebiscite.

Ethnicity doesn't really come into it. It's a geopolitical/cultural/sovereignty issue.

If that is the choice, which do you want?

If that's the case, I choose nothing. IF we agree EAW with what amounts to an antagonistic Eurozone that wants to 'punish' us, journalists could be extradited to Europe for criticising the regime that controls the EU.

IF Brady is correct, that is already happening in the case of Romania.

YBarddCwsc said:

Alanbrooke said:

YBarddCwsc said:

foxinsoxuk said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Barnesian said:

Is anyone following the debate on Syria?e/

Clinton could prolong it. That's my main concern about her presidency.

Clinton could start a new war in the Ukraine. That’s my main concern about her presidency.

Trump is quite likely to allow a new war in Korea and is dead keen on a trade war with everyone.

That is my main concern.

Perhaps. But a war in the Ukraine is a more worrisome prospect for Europe.

Ukraine borders directly on the EU.

I have zero confidence that the EU could cope with another massive refugee crisis.

Although there will be a delicious irony in countries like Hungary & Slovakia being overwhelmed with refugees from the Ukraine, and asking the EU for help in re-settling them.

The Ukraine just has the wrong borders, it has too many ethnic russians in the East, The only way to sort it out is a plebiscite.

I agree with that. The Ukraine is unsustainable.

It needs to be broken up.

Unfortunately, it is not clear that it can broken up without a full-scale war. Which is coming.

I would be possible if the Ukrainian govt held a plebiscite and let those areas which wanted to join Russia go. I'm not convinced that would be quite as clear cut as you might think as ethnic russians might prefer some sort of home rule within Ukraine to bad Vlad.

However if the borders do get redrawn then it's worth giving the new Ukraine some guarantees of territorial integrity.

AlastairMeeks said:

Lights touchpaper and retires:

https://twitter.com/pierremoscovici/status/785567880213630976

Excellent idea!

Now we won't be subject to it.......

taffys said:

If that is the choice, which do you want?

If that's the case, I choose nothing.

Fair enough. If you were a politician making that choice, you'd be setting yourself up for screaming Mail headlines 'MURDERER CAN'T BE EXTRADITED' and blaming it on you.

Scott_P said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Plus one is in committee while the other is just showing the opposition benches in the Commons. Weird photo mix.

If you click on it, you can see the rest of the picture.

And they are both debates. MPs had the choice of attending an "Emergency Debate on the Humanitarian catastrophe in Aleppo and Syria", or debating the Royal Yacht

The headbangers demonstrating for all to see the Parliamentary sovereignty priorities for Brexit...

Yes there's more than twice as many people in the Aleppo debate, your point is? Everyone here knows how the Commons works and that its rarely full outside set piece events.

williamglenn said:

Alanbrooke said:

YBarddCwsc said:

foxinsoxuk said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Barnesian said:

Is anyone following the debate on Syria?e/

Clinton could prolong it. That's my main concern about her presidency.

Clinton could start a new war in the Ukraine. That’s my main concern about her presidency.

Trump is quite likely to allow a new war in Korea and is dead keen on a trade war with everyone.

That is my main concern.

Perhaps. But a war in the Ukraine is a more worrisome prospect for Europe.

Ukraine borders directly on the EU.

I have zero confidence that the EU could cope with another massive refugee crisis.

Although there will be a delicious irony in countries like Hungary & Slovakia being overwhelmed with refugees from the Ukraine, and asking the EU for help in re-settling them.

The Ukraine just has the wrong borders, it has too many ethnic russians in the East, The only way to sort it out is a plebiscite.

Ethnicity doesn't really come into it. It's a geopolitical/cultural/sovereignty issue.

Crimea might suggest otherwise.

RobD said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

taffys said:

If that is the choice, which do you want?

If that's the case, I choose nothing.

Fair enough. If you were a politician making that choice, you'd be setting yourself up for screaming Mail headlines 'MURDERER CAN'T BE EXTRADITED' and blaming it on you.

Doesn't the EU have an extradition agreement with the USA? I doubt the US are subject to the European arrest warrant.

Individual countries have extradition agreements with the EU. However, there is a good case to be made that our agreement with the US is also hideously unbalanced.