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  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    If not to preserve our liberties, what precisely is Brexit for?

    To keep out "foreigners"...
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited October 2016
    matt said:

    I doubt it will be read. It's not from a properly independent news source.
    Actually Plato should be very happy with it, they report Hillary's lead was down by 7 points after the debate to mid-September levels.

    The Trump debate victory effect:
    https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/785909238279213057
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited October 2016
    Sean_F said:

    Dromedary said:

    The first black woman elected to the US Congress, Shirley Chisholm, who was also the first black candidate for a major party's presidential nomination (for the Democrats in 1972), said that she met far more discrimination for being a woman than for being black. Other black women politicians have said the same. Things haven't changed much on that score. People who don't get this should step back and consider. Imagine if a presidential nominee had boasted about tripping up black people rather than sexually assaulting women.

    I don't really want to play Oppression Olympics.

    There are places where women are treated terribly, but the US isn't generally one of them.
    If you are unaware of some of the sensationally regressive sat laws around child birth and abortions in the States I would encourage you to read up about them.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    England game going to plan so far...
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,296
    Sean_F said:

    l will be very disappointed if Trump wins, it is true. I think it will be a disaster for the US and, potentially, for the rest of us too. I am happy to be considered sanctimonious for not wanting a racist to win next month.

    Till recently, I thought it could be amusing if Trump won, but I don't now. We really don't his finger on the nuclear trigger.
    I'm inclined to agree. He seems unhinged to me. When you watch Nigel Farage you know he has an idea of the boundaries and likes to push them to the limits to provoke outrage from his critics. Trump on the other hand appears to have no self awareness.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Reuters Poll: 60% of non-ministerial MPs back May to commence divorce proceedings with EU, including one third of remain backers.

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-article50-lawmakers-exclus-idUKKCN12B22R?il=0

  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,783
    Speedy said:


    Well lets see, we got the Morning Consult poll, the NBC/WSJ poll, and the tracking polls saying that we are going back to the pre-tape situation after the debate.

    There really weren't enough data between the release of the tapes and the debate to tell us what the effect of the tapes alone was. I doubt there's enough yet to tell us what the combined effect of the tapes and the debate has been.

    If it turns out that we're in a similar position now to that before the release of the tapes, then it's far likelier that neither made much difference than that there was a big move one way after the tapes, and a big move back again after the debate.

    It's difficult to believe the tapes and the resulting Republican infighting won't have much effect. But on the other hand, the awfulness of Trump may already be "priced into" the market.


  • l will be very disappointed if Trump wins, it is true. I think it will be a disaster for the US and, potentially, for the rest of us too. I am happy to be considered sanctimonious for not wanting a racist to win next month.

    I dont like him but it is various things, not just because he is apparently racist. Its not that binary.

    Put it this way. If I had a friend who used racist language in conversation but not actually aimingit at a person I would not like it any more than any other swearing and my reaction would depend how often they did it and what they were generally like

    If I had a friend who used racist language to a person of colour, my response would depend on the reason. If it was casual because he considered such people untermenschen then I would look to keep different company, if it was because he got into a row with that person and had used the language because he knew it would wind them up I would take a more lenient view.

    If I discovered a friend thought hitler was right about the jews or a supremacist then I would break off all contact and avoid them.

    Life isnt as black and white as some make out.

    You seem to see someone expressing any racist sentiments, even mild ones, as completely disqualifying them, whatever other redeeming features they have. Even if the opponent was corrupt, but not racist.

    I dont tbink it is tbat simple. That said Trumps a rabble rousing boor.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112
    Scott_P said:

    If not to preserve our liberties, what precisely is Brexit for?

    To keep out "foreigners"...
    Unless they are tourists. Then we want millions of them running around all over the place.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    tyson said:

    @Black Rook RE Italy


    A really intelligent and well written post, so thanks. I tried to quote it, but it is too long....but your post is excellent so I would advise others to read it below.

    From a technocratic perspective there is little I disagree with. But the EU has a much more emotional connection with the Italians that is difficult to quantify. They will be the last to leave the EU through choice.....

    That's very kind. I'm not nearly the most articulate or perceptive individual on here but I do try.

    I know that electorates in many continental countries have a far stronger connection to the EU than the British do, but I am talking specifically about the Euro here. Although M5S sits in Ukip's group in the European Parliament, AFAIK they've never toyed with the idea of leaving the EU.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    England game going to plan so far...

    @Coral: Tell you what, England need to bring Wayne Rooney on to sort things out.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120
    @Richard Nabavi from last night.....

    As much as I come into conflict with the ideological pbER's heres, I admit, that I would probably find the likes of Plato, SeanFear, Moses et al.......good company in person. I find Plato insanely irritating but I read her posts; I even look out for them and like the easy and intuitive way she writes. Sean Fear possesses a dry wit that is quite irresitable. Moniker de Canio writes beautiful spurts of sublime short prose. Moses is always interesting, SeanT is thoroughly entertaining.

    And then you have Richard Tyndall who always has something worthwhile to say, Lucky who advises me on my dietary habits and many other oppositional posters who I read with some varying degree of interest. I even like Saddened who seems to hate me with a terrible vengeance. John O, I think over the years we have become virtual friends.

    Sadly, for my taste, I find your posts a bit boring and pompous but that is me, so I wouldn't take too much from that....
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Speedy said:

    matt said:

    I doubt it will be read. It's not from a properly independent news source.
    Actually Plato should be very happy with it, they report Hillary's lead was down by 7 points after the debate to mid-September levels.

    The Trump debate victory effect:
    https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/785909238279213057
    Speedy said:

    matt said:

    I doubt it will be read. It's not from a properly independent news source.
    Actually Plato should be very happy with it, they report Hillary's lead was down by 7 points after the debate to mid-September levels.

    The Trump debate victory effect:
    https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/785909238279213057
    Speedy said:

    matt said:

    I doubt it will be read. It's not from a properly independent news source.
    Actually Plato should be very happy with it, they report Hillary's lead was down by 7 points after the debate to mid-September levels.

    The Trump debate victory effect:
    https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/785909238279213057
    Speedy said:

    matt said:

    I doubt it will be read. It's not from a properly independent news source.
    Actually Plato should be very happy with it, they report Hillary's lead was down by 7 points after the debate to mid-September levels.

    The Trump debate victory effect:
    https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/785909238279213057
    But the respondents still give her a 7% lead AFTER the debate> Same as Obama 2008.


  • l will be very disappointed if Trump wins, it is true. I think it will be a disaster for the US and, potentially, for the rest of us too. I am happy to be considered sanctimonious for not wanting a racist to win next month.

    I dont like him but it is various things, not just because he is apparently racist. Its not that binary.

    Put it this way. If I had a friend who used racist language in conversation but not actually aimingit at a person I would not like it any more than any other swearing and my reaction would depend how often they did it and what they were generally like

    If I had a friend who used racist language to a person of colour, my response would depend on the reason. If it was casual because he considered such people untermenschen then I would look to keep different company, if it was because he got into a row with that person and had used the language because he knew it would wind them up I would take a more lenient view.

    If I discovered a friend thought hitler was right about the jews or a supremacist then I would break off all contact and avoid them.

    Life isnt as black and white as some make out.

    You seem to see someone expressing any racist sentiments, even mild ones, as completely disqualifying them, whatever other redeeming features they have. Even if the opponent was corrupt, but not racist.

    I dont tbink it is tbat simple. That said Trumps a rabble rousing boor.

    Using racist language is not the same as being a racist. Trump is a racist. He believes that a judge's racial descent should disbar him from trying certain cases.

    http://www.politifact.com/wisconsin/article/2016/jun/08/donald-trumps-racial-comments-about-judge-trump-un/
  • tlg86 said:

    Sean_F said:

    l will be very disappointed if Trump wins, it is true. I think it will be a disaster for the US and, potentially, for the rest of us too. I am happy to be considered sanctimonious for not wanting a racist to win next month.

    Till recently, I thought it could be amusing if Trump won, but I don't now. We really don't his finger on the nuclear trigger.
    I'm inclined to agree. He seems unhinged to me. When you watch Nigel Farage you know he has an idea of the boundaries and likes to push them to the limits to provoke outrage from his critics. Trump on the other hand appears to have no self awareness.
    I think he can't resist the urge to win the chase at whatever cost. Useful in business perhaps but not so wise for a commander in chief. Seeing his supporters with T shirts saying Hillary is a C*** is not exactly endearing either.
  • ThrakThrak Posts: 494
    Chris said:

    Speedy said:


    Well lets see, we got the Morning Consult poll, the NBC/WSJ poll, and the tracking polls saying that we are going back to the pre-tape situation after the debate.

    There really weren't enough data between the release of the tapes and the debate to tell us what the effect of the tapes alone was. I doubt there's enough yet to tell us what the combined effect of the tapes and the debate has been.

    If it turns out that we're in a similar position now to that before the release of the tapes, then it's far likelier that neither made much difference than that there was a big move one way after the tapes, and a big move back again after the debate.

    It's difficult to believe the tapes and the resulting Republican infighting won't have much effect. But on the other hand, the awfulness of Trump may already be "priced into" the market.
    Here is some indication of post debate effect and it isn't good for those who only now denounce Trump, it also isn't good for those who continue to endorse Trump and barely better for the neverTrumpers.

    In essence, no matter what position downticket GOPers have on Trump, they are going to lose out.

    http://dccc.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Post-Debate-Survey-Release-Memo.pdf

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,296

    tyson said:

    @Black Rook RE Italy


    A really intelligent and well written post, so thanks. I tried to quote it, but it is too long....but your post is excellent so I would advise others to read it below.

    From a technocratic perspective there is little I disagree with. But the EU has a much more emotional connection with the Italians that is difficult to quantify. They will be the last to leave the EU through choice.....

    That's very kind. I'm not nearly the most articulate or perceptive individual on here but I do try.

    I know that electorates in many continental countries have a far stronger connection to the EU than the British do, but I am talking specifically about the Euro here. Although M5S sits in Ukip's group in the European Parliament, AFAIK they've never toyed with the idea of leaving the EU.
    I'm not an expert, but I'd suggest that Italy wanting to leave the Euro but stay in the EU is a more fanciful idea than us staying in the single market but getting back full control over free movement of people.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,502
    edited October 2016
    Sean_F said:

    Dromedary said:



    There are places where women are treated terribly, but the US isn't generally one of them.
    That is true. Generally women's position is very much better in the Western world than elsewhere. But that does not mean that:-

    1. It is as good as it ought to be even in Western countries and by "ought" I don't mean according to some mathematical calculation but by reference to that country's expressed values and laws.
    2. Certain groups of women do very much worse than other women and / or than their male peers.

    I am lucky to have been born in this country and to have been able to have the opportunities and advantages that it has provided for me to have an education and a worthwhile career, opportunities that would have been much harder in some other Western countries, let alone elsewhere in the world.

    But when I started the behaviour towards and attitudes (whether expressed in words or actions) to women was very much worse than it is today and, yet, I see (in the words and behaviour of people like Trump and others) the same sort of behaviour that lots of people, both men and women, fought against, not because of political correctness but because it is simply ill-mannered and uncivilized to behave in such a way. I see a pornification of sex which makes me worry about the sort of world my daughter is living in. I see an aggression amongst young men (some of them) towards women which I find very very troubling. I see too many people willing to attack women in prominent positions in terms which go well beyond legitimate and robust debate into a sort of hatred and abuse and humiliation which is horrible.

    I see a workplace where women in senior roles are still relatively rare. I am one of very few women in senior positions in my place of work, one of the very few with a family, who has worked throughout and who has a perspective on female working life over 30 years (as a single person, a married person, a mother with children from babyhood to adulthood). My position is not that common.

    The position of women is good by comparison with many countries; it is better than it was. It is not subjugation as, say, women in Iran are subjugated. But it is not so securely good that we can afford to be complacent or self-congratulatory. Rights (for women, for others) have to be fought for. But their retention also need to be fought for. And this is a fight which needs to be repeated and relearnt in every generation.

    Rights are not won once and can then be forgotten. If we don't remember why they matter and why they are valuable and keep on arguing for them we will lose them. That principle applies to womens' rights and rights for black people and civil rights for all and rights to free speech and rights not to locked up without a trial and all sorts of rights that we all take for granted.

  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Nick Riccardi Verified account
    @NickRiccardi

    PHOENIX (AP) - Prosecutors say they will charge Arizona sheriff Joe Arpaio with criminal contempt of court over immigration patrols
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Scott_P said:

    England game going to plan so far...

    @Coral: Tell you what, England need to bring Wayne Rooney on to sort things out.
    Just goes to show, it can always be worse.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115





    As I say, some people have no problem with a racist being elected the President of the United States. I do. If that makes me a disgusting liberal lefty, so be it. I can live with that.



    Some people have no problem with an uber abortionist being elected as potus. I do. If that makes me a reactionary I'm happy with that.



    No, I wouldn't say it makes you a reactionary. Wanting Trump to win would, though.



    I dont though. Ive already said this morning I would vote Johnson with great regret as Trump is beyond the pale in all sorts of ways.

    Im more interested in flushing out whether he can still win and betting on it if they offer silly odds (like the 6-1 I got on brexit on June 22nd).

    The temptation to schadenfreud against sanctimonious types if he does win is bloody irresistable though.



    l will be very disappointed if Trump wins, it is true. I think it will be a disaster for the US and, potentially, for the rest of us too. I am happy to be considered sanctimonious for not wanting a racist to win next month.



    Till recently, I thought it could be amusing if Trump won, but I don't now. We really don't his finger on the nuclear trigger.

    Agreed. I think it's terrible he's even got this far. He would be an embarrassment at best and apocalyptic at worst. I hope he loses heavily.
  • The Telegraph: Fujitsu to cut almost 2,000 UK jobs as it looks to slash costs. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIw94jq_jE
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,713

    The Telegraph: Fujitsu to cut almost 2,000 UK jobs as it looks to slash costs. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIw94jq_jE

    is that exceptional.

    most of my family work for IT majors and job cutting to send work overseas is regular. Most of the cos have stated aims to reduce their presence in developed countries.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    tlg86 said:

    tyson said:

    @Black Rook RE Italy


    A really intelligent and well written post, so thanks. I tried to quote it, but it is too long....but your post is excellent so I would advise others to read it below.

    From a technocratic perspective there is little I disagree with. But the EU has a much more emotional connection with the Italians that is difficult to quantify. They will be the last to leave the EU through choice.....

    That's very kind. I'm not nearly the most articulate or perceptive individual on here but I do try.

    I know that electorates in many continental countries have a far stronger connection to the EU than the British do, but I am talking specifically about the Euro here. Although M5S sits in Ukip's group in the European Parliament, AFAIK they've never toyed with the idea of leaving the EU.
    I'm not an expert, but I'd suggest that Italy wanting to leave the Euro but stay in the EU is a more fanciful idea than us staying in the single market but getting back full control over free movement of people.
    Why? If they depart the Euro but don't wish to leave the EU, then who's going to vote to smash up the club by forcibly ejecting one of its founders? The core document of the EU's written constitution is the Treaty of Rome, after all. The EU is perfectly capable of fudging its rules if forced, there are other members which do not use the single currency as it is, and another significant departure could kill the entire project.

    To put it another way, to lose one major member might be regarded as a misfortune; to lose two would seem like carelessness...
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112
    edited October 2016
    If Rooney had a grandfather who was born in, say, Strabane, wouldn't he be eligible to play for England, NI, and the Republic of Ireland?
  • The Telegraph: Fujitsu to cut almost 2,000 UK jobs as it looks to slash costs. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIw94jq_jE

    is that exceptional.

    most of my family work for IT majors and job cutting to send work overseas is regular. Most of the cos have stated aims to reduce their presence in developed countries.
    No it's not exceptional at all. It's part of a long term trend which is unstoppable.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,713
    edited October 2016

    The Telegraph: Fujitsu to cut almost 2,000 UK jobs as it looks to slash costs. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIw94jq_jE

    is that exceptional.

    most of my family work for IT majors and job cutting to send work overseas is regular. Most of the cos have stated aims to reduce their presence in developed countries.
    No it's not exceptional at all. It's part of a long term trend which is unstoppable.
    It may or may not be unstoppable, but you can certainly slow it down. If some poor US CEO gets a smaller bonus so what ?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,713
    TOPPING said:

    If Rooney had a grandfather who was born in, say, Strabane, wouldn't he be eligible to play for England, NI, and the Republic of Ireland?

    Yes.

    My niece born in Aus to NI parents has UK, Irish and Oz passports
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,295
    See the £ is now 1.21 to the $. At what level (if at all) should the Government/Bank of England start getting concerned?
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900


    They vary in quality quite a lot, but fivethirtyeight.com's aggregation of them (they adust for house bias and weight according to the historical quality) has been very accurate for the last two presidential elections.
    Edit: See here:
    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/


    Also worth looking at:
    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-state-of-the-polls-2016/


    Scroll down a bit and you get mean error for all elections going back to 98 - presidential, congress, state and governors.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    edited October 2016
    Thrak said:

    Chris said:

    Speedy said:


    Well lets see, we got the Morning Consult poll, the NBC/WSJ poll, and the tracking polls saying that we are going back to the pre-tape situation after the debate.

    There really weren't enough data between the release of the tapes and the debate to tell us what the effect of the tapes alone was. I doubt there's enough yet to tell us what the combined effect of the tapes and the debate has been.

    If it turns out that we're in a similar position now to that before the release of the tapes, then it's far likelier that neither made much difference than that there was a big move one way after the tapes, and a big move back again after the debate.

    It's difficult to believe the tapes and the resulting Republican infighting won't have much effect. But on the other hand, the awfulness of Trump may already be "priced into" the market.
    Here is some indication of post debate effect and it isn't good for those who only now denounce Trump, it also isn't good for those who continue to endorse Trump and barely better for the neverTrumpers.

    In essence, no matter what position downticket GOPers have on Trump, they are going to lose out.

    http://dccc.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Post-Debate-Survey-Release-Memo.pdf

    That seems fairly persuasive as far as it goes, and I've not seen much evidence for the claim that the polls have moved back towards Trump post-debate yet (just one poll so far). The only technical reservation I'd make is that polls that prompt about a specific aspect of policy (in this case "does the GOP candidate support Trump?") may give undue emphasis to that consideration, and someone who doesn't really know if their local candidate for Congress supports Trump may simply vote GOP on ther grounds. It's like asking "Will you vote UKIP, bearing in mind the recent leadership turmoil?"
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,713
    JohnO said:

    See the £ is now 1.21 to the $. At what level (if at all) should the Government/Bank of England start getting concerned?

    when the Bushmills is down to the last 2 glasses.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,334
    JohnO said:

    See the £ is now 1.21 to the $. At what level (if at all) should the Government/Bank of England start getting concerned?

    Not at all tbh.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    JohnO said:

    See the £ is now 1.21 to the $. At what level (if at all) should the Government/Bank of England start getting concerned?

    Brexit means brexit ;)
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,296

    tlg86 said:

    tyson said:

    @Black Rook RE Italy


    A really intelligent and well written post, so thanks. I tried to quote it, but it is too long....but your post is excellent so I would advise others to read it below.

    From a technocratic perspective there is little I disagree with. But the EU has a much more emotional connection with the Italians that is difficult to quantify. They will be the last to leave the EU through choice.....

    That's very kind. I'm not nearly the most articulate or perceptive individual on here but I do try.

    I know that electorates in many continental countries have a far stronger connection to the EU than the British do, but I am talking specifically about the Euro here. Although M5S sits in Ukip's group in the European Parliament, AFAIK they've never toyed with the idea of leaving the EU.
    I'm not an expert, but I'd suggest that Italy wanting to leave the Euro but stay in the EU is a more fanciful idea than us staying in the single market but getting back full control over free movement of people.
    Why? If they depart the Euro but don't wish to leave the EU, then who's going to vote to smash up the club by forcibly ejecting one of its founders? The core document of the EU's written constitution is the Treaty of Rome, after all. The EU is perfectly capable of fudging its rules if forced, there are other members which do not use the single currency as it is, and another significant departure could kill the entire project.

    To put it another way, to lose one major member might be regarded as a misfortune; to lose two would seem like carelessness...
    Logically that sounds plausible. But you only need to see the appetite that exists to punish Britain for daring to leave the EU to realise that a similar stance will be taken towards a country leaving the Euro.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,295

    JohnO said:

    See the £ is now 1.21 to the $. At what level (if at all) should the Government/Bank of England start getting concerned?

    when the Bushmills is down to the last 2 glasses.
    I imagine all the Brookies are bathing in bubbly with all those juicy export orders.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    Scott_P said:
    Great amendment. Basically 'let's waste a day getting all the pro EU Pro narcissistic tendency out of your system, and then let the grown ups sort out Brexit away from the toy throwing children.
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    edited October 2016
    JohnO said:

    See the £ is now 1.21 to the $. At what level (if at all) should the Government/Bank of England start getting concerned?

    The fall has been triggered by the announcement of Hard Brexit. In many ways a heavily devalued £ is extremely helpful to a post Hard Brexit recovery. The devaluation is a political problem not an economic one.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,296
    JohnO said:

    See the £ is now 1.21 to the $. At what level (if at all) should the Government/Bank of England start getting concerned?

    Well given that they've added to devaluation I'd suggest they'd look a bit silly if they started to hike up interest rates.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,713
    JohnO said:

    JohnO said:

    See the £ is now 1.21 to the $. At what level (if at all) should the Government/Bank of England start getting concerned?

    when the Bushmills is down to the last 2 glasses.
    I imagine all the Brookies are bathing in bubbly with all those juicy export orders.
    Nah John we are largely a domstic supplier, our upside rests largely in Mrs M getting infrastructure investment going and securing a larger chunks of the domestic market. Though some of my customers export and I will get to sell more on the back of their sales.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    JohnO said:

    See the £ is now 1.21 to the $. At what level (if at all) should the Government/Bank of England start getting concerned?

    when the Bushmills is down to the last 2 glasses.
    Honest question, I heard Powers is the right stuff. Have I been misinformed?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,769
    JohnO said:

    See the £ is now 1.21 to the $. At what level (if at all) should the Government/Bank of England start getting concerned?

    Sigh.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Thrak said:

    Chris said:

    Speedy said:


    Well lets see, we got the Morning Consult poll, the NBC/WSJ poll, and the tracking polls saying that we are going back to the pre-tape situation after the debate.

    There really weren't enough data between the release of the tapes and the debate to tell us what the effect of the tapes alone was. I doubt there's enough yet to tell us what the combined effect of the tapes and the debate has been.

    If it turns out that we're in a similar position now to that before the release of the tapes, then it's far likelier that neither made much difference than that there was a big move one way after the tapes, and a big move back again after the debate.

    It's difficult to believe the tapes and the resulting Republican infighting won't have much effect. But on the other hand, the awfulness of Trump may already be "priced into" the market.
    Here is some indication of post debate effect and it isn't good for those who only now denounce Trump, it also isn't good for those who continue to endorse Trump and barely better for the neverTrumpers.

    In essence, no matter what position downticket GOPers have on Trump, they are going to lose out.

    http://dccc.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Post-Debate-Survey-Release-Memo.pdf

    That seems fairly persuasive as far as it goes, and I've not seen much evidence for the claim that the polls have moved back towards Trump post-debate yet (just one poll so far). The only technical reservation I'd make is that polls that prompt about a specific aspect of policy (in this case "does the GOP candidate support Trump?") may give undue emphasis to that consideration, and someone who doesn't really know if their local candidate for Congress supports Trump may simply vote GOP on ther grounds. It's like asking "Will you vote UKIP, bearing in mind the recent leadership turmoil?"
    I think it also demonstrates how a split party - any split party- loses its competence rating and starts to bleed support. Labourites take note.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    nunu said:



    But the respondents still give her a 7% lead AFTER the debate> Same as Obama 2008.

    NBC/WSJ have never shown a Hillary lead that is much smaller than that even at her worst.

    Last time they had Hillary leading by so little in their poll was back on Sept.16th when the RCP average showed it close to a tie.

    Hillary's lead being cut by 7% post debate is the news from this poll.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,713
    Mortimer said:

    JohnO said:

    See the £ is now 1.21 to the $. At what level (if at all) should the Government/Bank of England start getting concerned?

    when the Bushmills is down to the last 2 glasses.
    Honest question, I heard Powers is the right stuff. Have I been misinformed?
    I'm a northerner I cant give you an honest answer as I'm too biased.

    My favourite whiskies are from the western Isles, I love the peat taste of Laphraoig.


  • l will be very disappointed if Trump wins, it is true. I think it will be a disaster for the US and, potentially, for the rest of us too. I am happy to be considered sanctimonious for not wanting a racist to win next month.

    Using racist language is not the same as being a racist. Trump is a racist. He believes that a judge's racial descent should disbar him from trying certain cases.

    http://www.politifact.com/wisconsin/article/2016/jun/08/donald-trumps-racial-comments-about-judge-trump-un/
    He comes across as an idiot, but if I had been shouting from the rooftops that I wanted to build a wall on the border and stop mexicans coming to the US, I probably wouldn't be over happy at being up before a mexican beak.

    However I think his publicly accusing the judge hearing the case of being partial and corrupt is a serious matter as he dosent actually appear to have any evidence that he is. I would say general bully rather than racist but I guess its semantics (often the two go together).

    For many though it is the prospect of the above vs an abortion enthusiast packing the supreme court for a generation. If you consider abortion is the killing of a human being; that eclipses anything trump has done.

    There is a split culturally which I tbink is far worse than there was in South Africa (whatever faults Africa has the abilty to forget grudges and move on is remarkable in African culture- and the whites are more African than they realise). Howeved in the US there is a cultural chasm between liberal and conservative between secular and (generally evangelical christian) religious. There can be no compromise. Eventually one side must dominate the other. That is where the US is alas.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,713

    Mortimer said:

    JohnO said:

    See the £ is now 1.21 to the $. At what level (if at all) should the Government/Bank of England start getting concerned?

    when the Bushmills is down to the last 2 glasses.
    Honest question, I heard Powers is the right stuff. Have I been misinformed?
    I'm a northerner I cant give you an honest answer as I'm too biased.

    But if pushed my favourite whiskies are from the western Isles, I love the peat taste of Laphraoig.

    just dont tell malcolm
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120
    JohnO said:

    See the £ is now 1.21 to the $. At what level (if at all) should the Government/Bank of England start getting concerned?


    Comrade....I've been posting that same point for the last days. Our Brexit folk seem to think that the pound goes up and down and is nothing to do with anything really, since any possible stain on the wonderful Brexit is beyond comprehension.

    My living costs have increased by 30% over the last months. There again I have made shed loads of cash on my stocks and shares, investment funds, ISA's and PEP's and all the stuff I have no interest in from one year to the next.

    I actually hate (really hate) the fact that sterling is plummeting even though this financial scenario is making me much wealthier.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    edited October 2016

    Mortimer said:

    JohnO said:

    See the £ is now 1.21 to the $. At what level (if at all) should the Government/Bank of England start getting concerned?

    when the Bushmills is down to the last 2 glasses.
    Honest question, I heard Powers is the right stuff. Have I been misinformed?
    I'm a northerner I cant give you an honest answer as I'm too biased.

    My favourite whiskies are from the western Isles, I love the peat taste of Laphraoig.
    Snap. Laph, Lagavulin and Caol Isla are my faves....
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited October 2016
    JohnO said:

    See the £ is now 1.21 to the $. At what level (if at all) should the Government/Bank of England start getting concerned?

    It's not the government's business or the bank of england's to determine foreign exchange rates, unless they want a repeat of Black Wednesday.

    I think the pound is going to parity with the dollar.
    Since the minimum wage in both the USA and the UK at parity should be about the same.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Mortimer said:

    JohnO said:

    See the £ is now 1.21 to the $. At what level (if at all) should the Government/Bank of England start getting concerned?

    when the Bushmills is down to the last 2 glasses.
    Honest question, I heard Powers is the right stuff. Have I been misinformed?
    I cannot say I am a fan of either, and surely the sturdy yeomen of Olde England are better off with this single malt?.

    https://m.englishwhisky.co.uk/online-shop/english-whisky/peated-single-malt-59

    I quite recommend the peated version. It is not on par with a Scottish single malt, but not too far off.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,713
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    JohnO said:

    See the £ is now 1.21 to the $. At what level (if at all) should the Government/Bank of England start getting concerned?

    when the Bushmills is down to the last 2 glasses.
    Honest question, I heard Powers is the right stuff. Have I been misinformed?
    I'm a northerner I cant give you an honest answer as I'm too biased.

    My favourite whiskies are from the western Isles, I love the peat taste of Laphraoig.
    Snap. Laph, Lagavulin and Caol Isla are my faves....
    Yes.

    My one hope is there is now a proliferation of Irish Whiskies, I just hope somebody has the common sense to put some peat into a triple distilled Irish
  • JohnO said:

    See the £ is now 1.21 to the $. At what level (if at all) should the Government/Bank of England start getting concerned?

    Never mind that. At what level should we decide it has gone too far and short the Euro?
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331

    Mortimer said:

    JohnO said:

    See the £ is now 1.21 to the $. At what level (if at all) should the Government/Bank of England start getting concerned?

    when the Bushmills is down to the last 2 glasses.
    Honest question, I heard Powers is the right stuff. Have I been misinformed?
    I'm a northerner I cant give you an honest answer as I'm too biased.

    My favourite whiskies are from the western Isles, I love the peat taste of Laphraoig.
    One thing I can agree with you on. Recently got through a bottle of this:

    https://www.thegreenwellystop.co.uk/whiskyshop/bunnahabhain-8-year-old-whisky-heavily-peated/prod_2882.html

    It's awesome.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664



    l will be very disappointed if Trump wins, it is true. I think it will be a disaster for the US and, potentially, for the rest of us too. I am happy to be considered sanctimonious for not wanting a racist to win next month.

    I dont like him but it is various things, not just because he is apparently racist. Its not that binary.

    Put it this way. If I had a friend who used racist language in conversation but not actually aimingit at a person I would not like it any more than any other swearing and my reaction would depend how often they did it and what they were generally like

    If I had a friend who used racist language to a person of colour, my response would depend on the reason. If it was casual because he considered such people untermenschen then I would look to keep different company, if it was because he got into a row with that person and had used the language because he knew it would wind them up I would take a more lenient view.

    If I discovered a friend thought hitler was right about the jews or a supremacist then I would break off all contact and avoid them.

    Life isnt as black and white as some make out.

    You seem to see someone expressing any racist sentiments, even mild ones, as completely disqualifying them, whatever other redeeming features they have. Even if the opponent was corrupt, but not racist.

    I dont tbink it is tbat simple. That said Trumps a rabble rousing boor.

    Using racist language is not the same as being a racist. Trump is a racist. He believes that a judge's racial descent should disbar him from trying certain cases.

    http://www.politifact.com/wisconsin/article/2016/jun/08/donald-trumps-racial-comments-about-judge-trump-un/
    That is misleading: he is not saying that Mexicans are by virtue of their race too stupid or venal or corrupt to try certain cases, he is alleging the possibility of bias. The allegation is probably barking (it is clear from the transcript to which you link that Trump is in general barking), but it is not automatically racist. Compare let's say a trial in this country for WW2 war crimes connected with the death camps: I don't know whether it would be legally possible to ask a Jewish judge to recuse himself on the grounds of possibility of bias, but the application would not necessarily be racist.

    Einstein or someone said that “Everything should be made as simple as possible, but no simpler.” Similarly we should portray Trump and Clinton as being as nasty as they are, but no nastier.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    Mortimer said:

    JohnO said:

    See the £ is now 1.21 to the $. At what level (if at all) should the Government/Bank of England start getting concerned?

    when the Bushmills is down to the last 2 glasses.
    Honest question, I heard Powers is the right stuff. Have I been misinformed?
    I cannot say I am a fan of either, and surely the sturdy yeomen of Olde England are better off with this single malt?.

    https://m.englishwhisky.co.uk/online-shop/english-whisky/peated-single-malt-59

    I quite recommend the peated version. It is not on par with a Scottish single malt, but not too far off.
    Thanks Dr Fox. Had a Welsh single as a gift. Really not very good.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    Scott_P said:
    The fact they are amending rather than finding a reason to oppose the opposition motion is a small sign of weakness, indicating they know not all of their backbenchers are on board with parliament being bypassed.
  • JohnO said:

    JohnO said:

    See the £ is now 1.21 to the $. At what level (if at all) should the Government/Bank of England start getting concerned?

    when the Bushmills is down to the last 2 glasses.
    I imagine all the Brookies are bathing in bubbly with all those juicy export orders.
    In South Africa, people call underpants Brookies (not sure of the spelling)
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    JohnO said:

    See the £ is now 1.21 to the $. At what level (if at all) should the Government/Bank of England start getting concerned?

    when the Bushmills is down to the last 2 glasses.
    Honest question, I heard Powers is the right stuff. Have I been misinformed?
    I'm a northerner I cant give you an honest answer as I'm too biased.

    My favourite whiskies are from the western Isles, I love the peat taste of Laphraoig.
    Snap. Laph, Lagavulin and Caol Isla are my faves....
    Yes.

    My one hope is there is now a proliferation of Irish Whiskies, I just hope somebody has the common sense to put some peat into a triple distilled Irish
    Stuff the talk of a racehorse syndicate, what about an Irish single malt syndicate? Perhaps we could get a sweetheart deal on Corp tax? :)
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,769
    Right now this doesn't feel like a Clinton win.

    Trump should be out of the game. But he isn't. There is something seemingly irresistible about him.

    Chuck in a Clinton wobble and some shy Trumpers and he could do better than current polls.

    No real evidence, but doesn't feel right for Clinton.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,295
    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    The fact they are amending rather than finding a reason to oppose the opposition motion is a small sign of weakness, indicating they know not all of their backbenchers are on board with parliament being bypassed.
    A govt amendment is standard when an opposition motion is debated.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    The fact they are amending rather than finding a reason to oppose the opposition motion is a small sign of weakness, indicating they know not all of their backbenchers are on board with parliament being bypassed.
    Not really. No point opposing a non binding opposition motion...
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,713
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    JohnO said:

    See the £ is now 1.21 to the $. At what level (if at all) should the Government/Bank of England start getting concerned?

    when the Bushmills is down to the last 2 glasses.
    Honest question, I heard Powers is the right stuff. Have I been misinformed?
    I'm a northerner I cant give you an honest answer as I'm too biased.

    My favourite whiskies are from the western Isles, I love the peat taste of Laphraoig.
    Snap. Laph, Lagavulin and Caol Isla are my faves....
    Yes.

    My one hope is there is now a proliferation of Irish Whiskies, I just hope somebody has the common sense to put some peat into a triple distilled Irish
    Stuff the talk of a racehorse syndicate, what about an Irish single malt syndicate? Perhaps we could get a sweetheart deal on Corp tax? :)
    well it beats Brexit and Trump ! :-)
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548



    l will be very disappointed if Trump wins, it is true. I think it will be a disaster for the US and, potentially, for the rest of us too. I am happy to be considered sanctimonious for not wanting a racist to win next month.

    Using racist language is not the same as being a racist. Trump is a racist. He believes that a judge's racial descent should disbar him from trying certain cases.

    http://www.politifact.com/wisconsin/article/2016/jun/08/donald-trumps-racial-comments-about-judge-trump-un/
    He comes across as an idiot, but if I had been shouting from the rooftops that I wanted to build a wall on the border and stop mexicans coming to the US, I probably wouldn't be over happy at being up before a mexican beak.

    However I think his publicly accusing the judge hearing the case of being partial and corrupt is a serious matter as he dosent actually appear to have any evidence that he is. I would say general bully rather than racist but I guess its semantics (often the two go together).

    For many though it is the prospect of the above vs an abortion enthusiast packing the supreme court for a generation. If you consider abortion is the killing of a human being; that eclipses anything trump has done.

    There is a split culturally which I tbink is far worse than there was in South Africa (whatever faults Africa has the abilty to forget grudges and move on is remarkable in African culture- and the whites are more African than they realise). Howeved in the US there is a cultural chasm between liberal and conservative between secular and (generally evangelical christian) religious. There can be no compromise. Eventually one side must dominate the other. That is where the US is alas.
    Except that in this Presidential election we have had unusually little religion. Abortion, creationism in schools etc are for once not an issue. Both candidates are secular.

    Indeed one reason for the acrimony and personal attacks is that actually there is little to choose between them on most issues.
  • Jonathan said:

    Right now this doesn't feel like a Clinton win.

    Trump should be out of the game. But he isn't. There is something seemingly irresistible about him.

    Chuck in a Clinton wobble and some shy Trumpers and he could do better than current polls.

    No real evidence, but doesn't feel right for Clinton.

    German Federal Election 1930.... (the one aere NSDAP went from 12 to 108 out of 550 seats).

    I suspect he will narrowly lose but heaven help us in 4 years time as to who wins, if the place hasnt already gone Yugoslavic...
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120
    Jonathan said:

    Right now this doesn't feel like a Clinton win.

    Trump should be out of the game. But he isn't. There is something seemingly irresistible about him.

    Chuck in a Clinton wobble and some shy Trumpers and he could do better than current polls.

    No real evidence, but doesn't feel right for Clinton.

    Agreed entirely on every point

  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    JohnO said:

    See the £ is now 1.21 to the $. At what level (if at all) should the Government/Bank of England start getting concerned?

    $1.05 in 1985, quickly followed by a boom.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    JohnO said:

    See the £ is now 1.21 to the $. At what level (if at all) should the Government/Bank of England start getting concerned?

    when the Bushmills is down to the last 2 glasses.
    Honest question, I heard Powers is the right stuff. Have I been misinformed?
    I cannot say I am a fan of either, and surely the sturdy yeomen of Olde England are better off with this single malt?.

    https://m.englishwhisky.co.uk/online-shop/english-whisky/peated-single-malt-59

    I quite recommend the peated version. It is not on par with a Scottish single malt, but not too far off.
    Thanks Dr Fox. Had a Welsh single as a gift. Really not very good.
    Penrhyn?

    I haven't tried it yet, but perhaps in a bar rather than invest in a whole bottle.

  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120
    edited October 2016
    JohnO said:

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    The fact they are amending rather than finding a reason to oppose the opposition motion is a small sign of weakness, indicating they know not all of their backbenchers are on board with parliament being bypassed.
    A govt amendment is standard when an opposition motion is debated.
    Can someone translate that pbCOM exchange please into something someone like me could understand.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,783
    Thrak said:


    Here is some indication of post debate effect and it isn't good for those who only now denounce Trump, it also isn't good for those who continue to endorse Trump and barely better for the neverTrumpers.

    In essence, no matter what position downticket GOPers have on Trump, they are going to lose out.

    Thanks. The Republicans are certainly in an unenviable situation. But what did they expect?
  • Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    JohnO said:

    See the £ is now 1.21 to the $. At what level (if at all) should the Government/Bank of England start getting concerned?

    when the Bushmills is down to the last 2 glasses.
    Honest question, I heard Powers is the right stuff. Have I been misinformed?
    I'm a northerner I cant give you an honest answer as I'm too biased.

    My favourite whiskies are from the western Isles, I love the peat taste of Laphraoig.
    Snap. Laph, Lagavulin and Caol Isla are my faves....
    Yes.

    My one hope is there is now a proliferation of Irish Whiskies, I just hope somebody has the common sense to put some peat into a triple distilled Irish
    Stuff the talk of a racehorse syndicate, what about an Irish single malt syndicate? Perhaps we could get a sweetheart deal on Corp tax? :)
    well it beats Brexit and Trump ! :-)
    Maybe Mike should ban anyone discussing either after the US elections for at leat six weeks.

    All this circular hot air must be costing him a fortune in bandwidh.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    edited October 2016
    Mortimer said:

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    The fact they are amending rather than finding a reason to oppose the opposition motion is a small sign of weakness, indicating they know not all of their backbenchers are on board with parliament being bypassed.
    Not really. No point opposing a non binding opposition motion...
    No administration would want to hand an opposition the credit for getting a proposal through, if there is a reasonable prospect of defeating it and a credible reason for doing so.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    JohnO said:

    See the £ is now 1.21 to the $. At what level (if at all) should the Government/Bank of England start getting concerned?

    If the pound were to totally collapse (say, to 50 US cents) then that would be disastrous for living standards, but that seems highly implausible. Whatever the impact of Brexit, the value of UK plc isn't going to simply implode. None of the pre-Brexit economic forecasts, even the most pessimistic ones from the likes of the Treasury, suggested any such thing. And in point of fact, the fall in Sterling probably has at least as much to do with our awful current account deficit as the EU referendum, as argued here:

    "The UK’s financial position, regardless of the vote for Brexit, was screaming out for a devaluation. The current account deficit, a measure of our balance of payments with the rest of the world, was 5.9% in the second quarter of this year. If sustained for too long – and the UK has been running such deficits for years – a day of reckoning was bound to arrive eventually. Brexit has been the trigger."

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/nils-pratley-on-finance/2016/oct/11/regardless-of-brexit-sterling-was-screaming-out-for-a-devaluation?CMP=twt_gu

    The author goes on to argue (as have others recently) that a depreciation of the currency isn't nearly such a big issue as a hike in gilt yields. The Government still needs to borrow to cover a substantial deficit, and if financing suddenly became a lot more expensive then this could force some very difficult public spending choices and/or compel the Government to soft pedal on Brexit in an effort to calm the markets. But we're not there yet and, given that the UK has defaulted either never or only once (depending on how tightly you define this) on its debts, and that sovereign debt remains a highly desirable investment in the era of ultra-low or negative bank rates, there is no particular reason to suppose that gilt yields are likely to explode at this time.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Jonathan said:

    Right now this doesn't feel like a Clinton win.

    Trump should be out of the game. But he isn't. There is something seemingly irresistible about him.

    Chuck in a Clinton wobble and some shy Trumpers and he could do better than current polls.

    No real evidence, but doesn't feel right for Clinton.

    Perhaps we should look at what the candidates are doing today.

    Hillary is campaigning in Michigan, only her 3rd time since May, this speaks trouble, she shouldn't be in Michigan.

    Trump is campaigning in Florida, his 10th time since June.
  • chestnut said:

    JohnO said:

    See the £ is now 1.21 to the $. At what level (if at all) should the Government/Bank of England start getting concerned?

    $1.05 in 1985, quickly followed by a boom.
    Can we be sure that will happen again, or is there a chance that we might end up going all Weimar Republic in a few years?
  • chestnut said:

    JohnO said:

    See the £ is now 1.21 to the $. At what level (if at all) should the Government/Bank of England start getting concerned?

    $1.05 in 1985, quickly followed by a boom.
    Can we be sure that will happen again, or is there a chance that we might end up going all Weimar Republic in a few years?
    Yes we can be sure, inflation is grounded at virtually zero.
  • With the election, despite everything that's happened, we're at where we were at the start of the summer. Yeah, Trump still has a shot but looking at the sheer weight of the polls, statewide and nationally, it's unlikely. Too many swing states to win, too many voting blocks alienated.

    Trump isn't Ronald Reagan in October 1980. He's not coming back from a 4-point-plus national deficit. (And to be honest, he's not Ronald Reagan. Not even close to it.)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited October 2016
    I can't work out who is worse , England football team or itv's expert panel! Ian wright, Ryan giggs & Lee Dixon..
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,985
    edited October 2016
    In other news, Boeing's having trouble with their new manned capsule.

    http://arstechnica.co.uk/science/2016/10/boeing-delays-starliner-again-casting-doubt-on-commercial-flights-in-2018/

    It looks as though the Yanks are going to have to pay for the Russian space program for another year...

    This is actually a big thing. The Russians have continuously put up the price the US has to pay for a seat on a Soyuz to a ridiculous amount, and they know that the US's reliance on them is coming to an end.

    Only the fact that Russia would not want to / could not pay for the ISS on its own (*), and that Russia would need seats on American craft in a few years, will make the Russians give the US astronauts seats.

    But the US will have to pay for the privilege.

    (*) Russia is making noises about leaving its modules up in space at the end of the ISS program, and using them for its own projects. But that's much smaller and easier to manage than the entire ISS.

    Edit: the cost increases for a Soyuz seat are in the link below - from $25 million in 2006 to $81 million now. It seems the Russians make good capitalists ...
    http://uk.businessinsider.com/astronaut-cost-per-soyuz-seat-2016-9
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,769
    There is something weirdly wrong about this England team. Somehow much worse than the ones that precede it, which all failed but at least had potential. The epitome of 'meh'.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    tyson said:

    JohnO said:

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    The fact they are amending rather than finding a reason to oppose the opposition motion is a small sign of weakness, indicating they know not all of their backbenchers are on board with parliament being bypassed.
    A govt amendment is standard when an opposition motion is debated.
    Can someone translate that pbCOM exchange please into something someone like me could understand.
    When the opposition proposes a motion, the government would rather amend it so that the Commons agrees something the government wants than simply defeating it, which would mean the Commons taking no position at all.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited October 2016
    Jonathan said:

    Right now this doesn't feel like a Clinton win.

    Trump should be out of the game. But he isn't. There is something seemingly irresistible about him.

    Chuck in a Clinton wobble and some shy Trumpers and he could do better than current polls.

    No real evidence, but doesn't feel right for Clinton.

    That's what Nate Silver's model thinks too - hence his "polls plus" projection of a ~20% chance for trump, when if an election were held today with the current polls he only has a ~13% likelihood of ending up in the Whitehouse.

    This should be a *change* election, but the *change* on offer doesn't appear to be palatable to people.

    They may yet change their minds, though!
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120
    edited October 2016

    The England football team is sooooo bad I want Slovenia to win.

    There again Slovenia is one of the most beautiful, stunning, safest, countries the history of mankind has ever created. It's an oasis of beauty, calm and serenity. Lake Bled.....I have never seen such clean waters.......

    Put is this way, it compares well to Skelmersdale or Hemel Hempstead
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270
    Speedy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Right now this doesn't feel like a Clinton win.

    Trump should be out of the game. But he isn't. There is something seemingly irresistible about him.

    Chuck in a Clinton wobble and some shy Trumpers and he could do better than current polls.

    No real evidence, but doesn't feel right for Clinton.

    Perhaps we should look at what the candidates are doing today.

    Hillary is campaigning in Michigan, only her 3rd time since May, this speaks trouble, she shouldn't be in Michigan.

    Trump is campaigning in Florida, his 10th time since June.
    I can certainly believe there is a sizeable shy Trump vote out there - or at least, that the Clinton campaign lose sleep over it (with a string of recent polling failures going back to Netanyahu's surprise win). Whilst staying with him through thick or thin, I imagine a swathe of Trump's supporters would find it easier to admit to pollsters that they watch pornography or strangle kittens.

    What I have found surprising is the lack of excitement at America electing its first woman President. It's almost like it isn't a factor, which is astonishing.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    chestnut said:

    JohnO said:

    See the £ is now 1.21 to the $. At what level (if at all) should the Government/Bank of England start getting concerned?

    $1.05 in 1985, quickly followed by a boom.
    Can we be sure that will happen again, or is there a chance that we might end up going all Weimar Republic in a few years?
    Seems highly unlikely. IIRC Weimar hyperinflation a product of massive Versailles reparations and effects of Great Depression. Can't be sure of scale of next recession or extent of impact of Brexit, but seems unlikely to rival that of 1929. UK Govt debt to GDP ratio unremarkable, and much of the gilt stock very long dated and/or held by the Bank of England (latter debts could effectively be made to vanish in an emergency.)
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Ishmael_X said:



    l will be very disappointed if Trump wins, it is true. I think it will be a disaster for the US and, potentially, for the rest of us too. I am happy to be considered sanctimonious for not wanting a racist to win next month.

    I dont like him but it is various things, not just because he is apparently racist. Its not that binary.

    Put it this way. If I had a friend who used racist language in conversation but not actually aimingit at a person I would not like it any more than any other swearing and my reaction would depend how often they did it and what they were generally like

    If I had a friend who used racist language to a person of colour, my response would depend on the reason. If it was casual because he considered such people untermenschen then I would look to keep different company, if it was because he got into a row with that person and had used the language because he knew it would wind them up I would take a more lenient view.

    If I discovered a friend thought hitler was right about the jews or a supremacist then I would break off all contact and avoid them.

    Life isnt as black and white as some make out.

    You seem to see someone expressing any racist sentiments, even mild ones, as completely disqualifying them, whatever other redeeming features they have. Even if the opponent was corrupt, but not racist.

    I dont tbink it is tbat simple. That said Trumps a rabble rousing boor.

    Using racist language is not the same as being a racist. Trump is a racist. He believes that a judge's racial descent should disbar him from trying certain cases.

    http://www.politifact.com/wisconsin/article/2016/jun/08/donald-trumps-racial-comments-about-judge-trump-un/
    That is misleading: he is not saying that Mexicans are by virtue of their race too stupid or venal or corrupt to try certain cases, he is alleging the possibility of bias. The allegation is probably barking (it is clear from the transcript to which you link that Trump is in general barking), but it is not automatically racist. Compare let's say a trial in this country for WW2 war crimes connected with the death camps: I don't know whether it would be legally possible to ask a Jewish judge to recuse himself on the grounds of possibility of bias, but the application would not necessarily be racist.

    Einstein or someone said that “Everything should be made as simple as possible, but no simpler.” Similarly we should portray Trump and Clinton as being as nasty as they are, but no nastier.
    In the 1970s Trump made a point of renting to whites only.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270
    Jonathan said:

    There is something weirdly wrong about this England team. Somehow much worse than the ones that precede it, which all failed but at least had potential. The epitome of 'meh'.

    But at least they aren't 2-0 down....unlike Scotland.
  • tyson said:

    JohnO said:

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    The fact they are amending rather than finding a reason to oppose the opposition motion is a small sign of weakness, indicating they know not all of their backbenchers are on board with parliament being bypassed.
    A govt amendment is standard when an opposition motion is debated.
    Can someone translate that pbCOM exchange please into something someone like me could understand.
    When the opposition proposes a motion, the government would rather amend it so that the Commons agrees something the government wants than simply defeating it, which would mean the Commons taking no position at all.
    Yep. It is no sign of weakness. It is actually a means to strengthen the Government's position even more using the Opposition's own motion as it will make any further motions on the same subject more difficult as Parliament will already have been deemed to have spoken.
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    edited October 2016
    Jonathan said:

    There is something weirdly wrong about this England team. Somehow much worse than the ones that precede it, which all failed but at least had potential. The epitome of 'meh'.

    The Premier League is EU membership. We all slag it off as inauthentic and corrupt yet voluntarily pay to enjoy the best globalised football anywhere here on English soil. The England team is Brexit. Recepticle of our dissatisfaction with the former and hope of romanticised Nationalism. But completely **** in reality.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited October 2016
    Jonathan said:

    There is something weirdly wrong about this England team. Somehow much worse than the ones that precede it, which all failed but at least had potential. The epitome of 'meh'.

    England do not have a single world class footballer. Not one. Not even close to having one either.

    The fact that they are all so overpaid and so over-lauded makes them even more intensely loathsome.

    They are a 4 by 400 relay team. Runners, but utterly useless footballers that no good ( in the real sense, not Sky's Premier League one) football team would touch with somebody else's barge pole .
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    If Trump wins, GBP recovers a tad I think..
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Exchange Rates: How much of the rate is due to profiteering and speculation? You can't bet against that as a bank / govt as all you do is deliver the profits that speculators are seeking.

    POTUS: One of the criteria is not that you are a nice man (or woman). The winner of this contest is unlikely to be a nice person.
  • tyson said:

    JohnO said:

    See the £ is now 1.21 to the $. At what level (if at all) should the Government/Bank of England start getting concerned?


    Comrade....I've been posting that same point for the last days. Our Brexit folk seem to think that the pound goes up and down and is nothing to do with anything really, since any possible stain on the wonderful Brexit is beyond comprehension.

    My living costs have increased by 30% over the last months. There again I have made shed loads of cash on my stocks and shares, investment funds, ISA's and PEP's and all the stuff I have no interest in from one year to the next.

    I actually hate (really hate) the fact that sterling is plummeting even though this financial scenario is making me much wealthier.
    You could always return to Blighty and spend your money here. That is how the Balance of Payments improves when sterling falls. Your irritation is the nation's gain.
  • Jonathan said:

    There is something weirdly wrong about this England team. Somehow much worse than the ones that precede it, which all failed but at least had potential. The epitome of 'meh'.

    The Premier League is EU membership. We all slag it off as inauthentic and corrupt yetvoluntarily pay to enjoy the best globalised football anywhere here on English soil. The England team is Brexit. Recepticle of our dissatisfaction with the former and hope of romanticised Nationalism. But completely **** in reality.
    Um no. The England team is a symptom of the Premier League. It is poor exactly because the Premier League is the EU of Football and as a result the home nation suffers very badly. Your analogy is fundamentally correct, you just draw completely the wrong conclusion.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120

    tyson said:

    JohnO said:

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    The fact they are amending rather than finding a reason to oppose the opposition motion is a small sign of weakness, indicating they know not all of their backbenchers are on board with parliament being bypassed.
    A govt amendment is standard when an opposition motion is debated.
    Can someone translate that pbCOM exchange please into something someone like me could understand.
    When the opposition proposes a motion, the government would rather amend it so that the Commons agrees something the government wants than simply defeating it, which would mean the Commons taking no position at all.
    I'm still baffled....

    I have to admit my stupidity on certain points sends my wife to distraction.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,296

    Speedy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Right now this doesn't feel like a Clinton win.

    Trump should be out of the game. But he isn't. There is something seemingly irresistible about him.

    Chuck in a Clinton wobble and some shy Trumpers and he could do better than current polls.

    No real evidence, but doesn't feel right for Clinton.

    Perhaps we should look at what the candidates are doing today.

    Hillary is campaigning in Michigan, only her 3rd time since May, this speaks trouble, she shouldn't be in Michigan.

    Trump is campaigning in Florida, his 10th time since June.
    I can certainly believe there is a sizeable shy Trump vote out there - or at least, that the Clinton campaign lose sleep over it (with a string of recent polling failures going back to Netanyahu's surprise win). Whilst staying with him through thick or thin, I imagine a swathe of Trump's supporters would find it easier to admit to pollsters that they watch pornography or strangle kittens.

    What I have found surprising is the lack of excitement at America electing its first woman President. It's almost like it isn't a factor, which is astonishing.
    On your last point I think that's explained by the fact that she's been eyeing up the job for so long that it's not really that much of a shock.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    corporeal said:

    Ishmael_X said:



    l will be very disappointed if Trump wins, it is true. I think it will be a disaster for the US and, potentially, for the rest of us too. I am happy to be considered sanctimonious for not wanting a racist to win next month.

    I dont like him but it is various things, not just because he is apparently racist. Its not that binary.

    Put it this way. If I had a friend who used racist language in conversation but not actually aimingit at a person I would not like it any more than any other swearing and my reaction would depend how often they did it and what they were generally like

    If I had a friend who used racist language to a person of colour, my response would depend on the reason. If it was casual because he considered such people untermenschen then I would look to keep different company, if it was because he got into a row with that person and had used the language because he knew it would wind them up I would take a more lenient view.

    If I discovered a friend thought hitler was right about the jews or a supremacist then I would break off all contact and avoid them.

    Life isnt as black and white as some make out.

    You seem to see someone expressing any racist sentiments, even mild ones, as completely disqualifying them, whatever other redeeming features they have. Even if the opponent was corrupt, but not racist.

    I dont tbink it is tbat simple. That said Trumps a rabble rousing boor.

    Using racist language is not the same as being a racist. Trump is a racist. He believes that a judge's racial descent should disbar him from trying certain cases.

    http://www.politifact.com/wisconsin/article/2016/jun/08/donald-trumps-racial-comments-about-judge-trump-un/
    That is misleading: he is not saying that Mexicans are by virtue of their race too stupid or venal or corrupt to try certain cases, he is alleging the possibility of bias. The allegation is probably barking (it is clear from the transcript to which you link that Trump is in general barking), but it is not automatically racist. Compare let's say a trial in this country for WW2 war crimes connected with the death camps: I don't know whether it would be legally possible to ask a Jewish judge to recuse himself on the grounds of possibility of bias, but the application would not necessarily be racist.

    Einstein or someone said that “Everything should be made as simple as possible, but no simpler.” Similarly we should portray Trump and Clinton as being as nasty as they are, but no nastier.
    In the 1970s Trump made a point of renting to whites only.
    If true, that is different. Though NB that that was perfectly legal in this country until 1976.
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