Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov has Clinton winning the debate by 47% to 42%

12346»

Comments

  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    TOPPING said:

    I think the only realistic option is to put Rooney at No.10 behind Sturridge but then what to do with Henderson?
    rooney should be sold to china. Either to play in their league to be made into glue, either is fine
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,647
    619 said:

    my 619th post. Any wwe fan will know the significance

    https://twitter.com/DrDavidDuke/status/784966088048021504

    First time I've seen the triple brackets in action, I must say.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,091
    Sean_F said:

    Well, it shows that split-ticket voting isn't quite over and done with. It probably takes a real rush of enthusiasm for a new President to hand one party all three organs of government.

    WRT the Senate, it seems to me that several incumbent Republicans have built up personal votes that far outweigh the support Trump is getting in their States. Compare Trump's 3% lead in Alaska with Murkowski's 33% lead, or him being roughly level-pegging in Ohio with Portman's 14% lead.
    That also tells you that the Republicans would have walked this election with any other candidate.
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited October 2016
    PlatoSaid said:

    I read a fascinating article in The Times about his deliberate speaking style - short sentences, simple words, repeating himself, moving from one topic to another and back again.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/trumps-cleverest-trick-is-sounding-stupid-65p8zp3dd
    Trump is insane and a scumbag but he is not stupid. I suspect that yesterday he may have deliberately wielded as a weapon the perception that he might drop out or that Mike Pence might. Why else did he remove Pence's schedule from his website? He talks in "The Deal" about being ready to walk away, and how powerful that can be. As a result, we had the Clinton campaign pulling their punches and wanting most of all for Trump to stay in the race, because they'd get pummelled by Pence-Carson.

    When the question was asked about his boasting about sexually assaulting women, he responded by talking about ISIS, ISIS, ISIS. Clinton could easily have got in a soundbite that everyone would be talking about afterwards:

    "The question was about whether you do what you boast about doing, Mr Trump - whether you grab women's 'pussies', as you call them. That's nothing to do with ISIS."

    Her presentation is far too listy and insufficiently punchy. She talked about how Trump has "targeted", as well as women, "immigrants, African-Americans, Latinos, people with disabilities, POWs, Muslims, and so many others".

    That would be great at a student debate. But in this context it was total crap. Concentrate your forces at your enemy's weakest point. What she should have said is this:

    "You MOCK disabled people, Donald. You mocked Serge Kovaleski's disability because you didn't like what he wrote. You IMITATED him on stage. And you did the same to me after I caught pneumonia and felt ill at a 911 memorial. That's not locker-room behaviour. Don't say athletes do it. You're a DISGUSTING piece of work, Donald."

    But because they don't want him to drop out, she played it soft.

    What could happen now is that the RNC boot him anyway. Pence will be far stronger if Trump quits supposedly of his own accord (but really because the RNC tell him) or supposedly because Pence himself pulls out, than if Clinton kicks his arse around the floor.

    Much of the talk of state ballots and the inapplicability of the Republicans' rule 9 is irrelevant. There are tapes from the Apprentice and probably a lot more. The RNC could tell Trump "you're out, or you go to jail for 20 years and lose all your assets - which is it?" I suspect that either they will say that, and he will withdraw, or he will stay in and actually win. Clinton missed her chance last night.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794
    justin124 said:

    A very good poll for the Tories - but be careful! Have ICM overadjusted following the May 2015 debacle.? The effect has certainly been to add several points to the Tory lead. Surprised we did not get a YouGov voting intentions poll last week.

    They have weighted Labour up from 24% to 26%.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281


    More generally, I agree with this article that talk of a 'Hard' vs 'Soft' Brexit is unhelpful, and actually conflates a number of different issues:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-10-09/ditch-the-hard-brexit-fallacy
    Excellent article - thanks:

    This hard-or-soft framing conflates a bundle of very different questions. Will Brexit take the U.K out of the single market? Will Britain face trade barriers? Will Brexit mean strict immigration controls? Will Britain and the EU separate on acrimonious terms, ending close cooperation on issues other than trade? Will exit be disorderly and disruptive? Declaring that Brexit will be hard implies (and is usually intended to imply) that the answer to all those questions must be yes -- and that hard thus equals disastrous.

    Not so. Let's take each in turn.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Essexit said:

    I particularly enjoyed her line when 'answering' the first question last night - "America is great when we're good" or something like that. I mean yes Hillary, but what of it?
    I took it instantly as 'when you agree with me and aren't deplorables'.

    A wag here last night said her hardware had been upgraded - but the software needed attention. So accurate. I'm struggling to think of a politician with so little personal warmth - John Redwood in Vulcan mode?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    MaxPB said:
    It's the Spanish speaking US station. Essentially the Latino demographic with over 60 outlets in the US and accordingly important in a number of swing states.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,372
    rcs1000 said:

    That also tells you that the Republicans would have walked this election with any other candidate.
    Certainly, another way of looking at it is that plenty of people would be prepared to vote Republican in swing States, (they also lead in the Iowa, Florida, Nevada, and New Hampshire Senate races) but Trump is significantly underperforming his party's basic support.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794
    JackW said:

    It's the Spanish speaking US station. Essentially the Latino demographic with over 60 outlets in the US and accordingly important in a number of swing states.
    I know what Univision is, my question was how many of theor viewers are eligible to vote.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,819
    rcs1000 said:

    That also tells you that the Republicans would have walked this election with any other candidate.
    Maybe the problem is that the Republicans don't put up other candidates. It's a bit like saying Labour would be walking it with any other leader than Corbyn. And, Ok, that Owen guy...
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    The Trump Foundation has to supply audits to the NY Attorney-General by 17 October if it solicited money unlawfully in NY, which clearly it did, otherwise it wouldn't have been served with a "notice of violation".

    The RNC need to act very fast.

  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Dromedary said:

    Trump is insane and a scumbag but he is not stupid. I suspect that yesterday he may have deliberately wielded as a weapon the perception that he might drop out or that Mike Pence might. Why else did he remove Pence's schedule from his website? He talks in "The Deal" about being ready to walk away, and how powerful that can be. As a result, we had the Clinton campaign pulling their punches and wanting most of all for Trump to stay in the race, because they'd get pummelled by Pence-Carson.

    That would be great at a student debate. But in this context it was total crap. Concentrate your forces at your enemy's weakest point. What she should have said is this:

    "You MOCK disabled people, Donald. You mocked Serge Kovaleski's disability because you didn't like what he wrote. You IMITATED him on stage. And you did the same to me after I caught pneumonia and felt ill at a 911 memorial. That's not locker-room behaviour. Don't say athletes do it. You're a DISGUSTING piece of work, Donald."

    But because they don't want him to drop out, she played it soft.

    What could happen now is that the RNC boot him anyway. Pence will be far stronger if Trump quits supposedly of his own accord (but really because the RNC tell him) or supposedly because Pence himself pulls out, than if Clinton kicks his arse around the floor.

    Much of the talk of state ballots and the inapplicability of the Republicans' rule 9 is irrelevant. There are tapes from the Apprentice and probably a lot more. The RNC could tell Trump "you're out, or you go to jail for 20 years and lose all your assets - which is it?" I suspect that either they will say that, and he will withdraw, or he will stay in and actually win. Clinton missed her chance last night.
    She has one last chance to put him away.

    You think he will win just by staying on the ballot? I don't think so he needeed to close the poll numbers tonight, don't think he did that. Also worse is yet to come in turns of tapes.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited October 2016
    MaxPB said:

    They have weighted Labour up from 24% to 26%.
    That is routine and relates to the particular sample. Beyond that ICM - and other pollsters - have made a number of adjustments since the 2015 election. Several commentators have suggested that they may have overdone it. Time will tell.
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    MaxPB said:

    I know what Univision is, my question was how many of theor viewers are eligible to vote.
    Well, we will find out in Nov. If they can vote, they won't be voting Trump
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    GIN1138 said:

    What's happened with A50 court case? All seems to have gone very quiet?

    Davis making statement this PM in House
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794
    rcs1000 said:

    That also tells you that the Republicans would have walked this election with any other candidate.
    Which is why they need to get their act together for 2020. Harness the "deplorables" and don't have a crazy person as the candidate.
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    Dromedary said:

    Trump is insane and a scumbag but he is not stupid. I suspect that yesterday he may have deliberately wielded as a weapon the perception that he might drop out or that Mike Pence might. Why else did he remove Pence's schedule from his website? He talks in "The Deal" about being ready to walk away, and how powerful that can be. As a result, we had the Clinton campaign pulling their punches and wanting most of all for Trump to stay in the race, because they'd get pummelled by Pence-Carson.

    When the question was asked about his boasting about sexually assaulting women, he responded by talking about ISIS, ISIS, ISIS. Clinton could easily have got in a soundbite that everyone would be talking about afterwards:

    "The question was about whether you do what you boast about doing, Mr Trump - whether you grab women's 'pussies', as you call them. That's nothing to do with ISIS."

    Her presentation is far too listy and insufficiently punchy. She talked about how Trump has "targeted", as well as women, "immigrants, African-Americans, Latinos, people with disabilities, POWs, Muslims, and so many others".

    That would be great at a student debate. But in this context it was total crap. Concentrate your forces at your enemy's weakest point. What she should have said is this:

    "You MOCK disabled people, Donald. You mocked Serge Kovaleski's disability because you didn't like what he wrote. You IMITATED him on stage. And you did the same to me after I caught pneumonia and felt ill at a 911 memorial. That's not locker-room behaviour. Don't say athletes do it. You're a DISGUSTING piece of work, Donald."

    But because they don't want him to drop out, she played it soft.

    What could happen now is that the RNC boot him anyway. Pence will be far stronger if Trump quits supposedly of his own accord (but really because the RNC tell him) or supposedly because Pence himself pulls out, than if Clinton kicks his arse around the floor.

    Much of the talk of state ballots and the inapplicability of the Republicans' rule 9 is irrelevant. There are tapes from the Apprentice and probably a lot more. The RNC could tell Trump "you're out, or you go to jail for 20 years and lose all your assets - which is it?" I suspect that either they will say that, and he will withdraw, or he will stay in and actually win. Clinton missed her chance last night.
    I'm not sure a ticket with Ben Carson would do anything on an elected level,
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Essexit said:

    I particularly enjoyed her line when 'answering' the first question last night - "America is great when we're good" or something like that. I mean yes Hillary, but what of it?
    I think a better campaign slogan for her would be a an economy that works for everyone.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,017
    Dromedary said:

    Well, it shows that split-ticket voting isn't quite over and done with. It probably takes a real rush of enthusiasm for a new President to hand one party all three organs of government.

    WRT the Senate, it seems to me that several incumbent Republicans have built up personal votes that far outweigh the support Trump is getting in their States. Compare Trump's 3% lead in Alaska with Murkowski's 33% lead, or him being roughly level-pegging in Ohio with Portman's 14% lead.
    You do realise that the Senate has elections every two years, so only about a third are up for election this year.
    "Elections for the United States Senate will be held on November 8, 2016, with 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested in regular elections whose winners will serve six-year terms in the 115th United States Congress until January 3, 2023. All class 3 Senators are up for election; class 3 was last up for election in 2010, when Republicans won a net gain of six seats. Currently, Democrats are expected to have 10 seats up for election, and Republicans are expected to have 24 seats up for election. However, as of June 7, only 9 Democratic held seats are in contention, as the Democrats have already secured California, with the top two finishers in the California Senate jungle primary both being Democrats. Republicans, having taken control of the Senate in the 2014 election, currently hold the Senate majority with 54 seats."
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794
    edited October 2016
    619 said:

    Well, we will find out in Nov. If they can vote, they won't be voting Trump
    Around a fifth of Hispanic people in the US are there illegally and ineligible, rebasing the Univision viewers poll for that would make it ~87:13 assuming illegal immigrants broke 100:0 to Hillary. That's about in line with LV breakdowns of Hispanic voters, maybe slightly more favourable to Hillary.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    rcs1000 said:

    That also tells you that the Republicans would have walked this election with any other candidate.
    Any other candidate except Cruz who came second in the primaries and is probably even crazier than Trump, Carson who's away with the fairies, or the speak-your-weight Jeb Bush or Kasich -- the Cameroons to Hillary's Blairism, in British terms. What it tells us is Trump could have been president if he'd not set out to insult and denigrate half the American electorate.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,317
    GIN1138 said:

    What's happened with A50 court case? All seems to have gone very quiet?

    October 13th and 17th, I think.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    I'm hopeful that we'll get the Ipsos Mori poll this week.
    Yay! Bouncy Mori!
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    MaxPB said:

    Around a fifth of Hispanic people in the US are there illegally and ineligible, rebasing the Univision viewers poll for that would make it ~87:13 assuming illegal immigrants broke 100:0 to Hillary. That's about in line with LV breakdowns of Hispanic voters, maybe slightly more favourable to Hillary.
    Surely the proportion of illegal immigrants who vote for anyone will be small?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,317
    On ICM.. smelling salts on standby :o
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    MaxPB said:

    I know what Univision is, my question was how many of theor viewers are eligible to vote.
    Your initial question didn't make that clear.

    I'm not sure we are table o say what proportion of those numbers are eligible to vote. However I think it's a not unreasonable assumption that Trump is not flavour of the month with the Hispanic community, voters or not.

    The recent scientific polling by Univision indicates Trump tanking with Clinton +30 in Florida, his best latino demographic with a 30% Cuban American community.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,091
    Dromedary said:

    Surely the proportion of illegal immigrants who vote for anyone will be small?
    I think you know what he means :)
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,307
    Corbyn taking Labour back to the 80s. 17 % points behind.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,253
    PlatoSaid said:

    Davis making statement this PM in House
    Last week Jolyon Maugham posted this piece about how the GRB could potentially destroy their case by Ockham, so I think they are probably reflecting on strategy and keeping their powder dry to see what happens.

    http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/the-true-meaning-great-repeal-act-brexit-eu-referendum-theresa-may

    "Jolyon" is at risk of becoming a single namer like "Boris", especially as he is planning to become more of a character by living in a windmill like the Mouse in Old Amsterdam :-) .
  • RobD said:

    On ICM.. smelling salts on standby :o

    Are you or have you recently been on an airplane?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,317
    JackW said:

    Your initial question didn't make that clear.

    I'm not sure we are table o say what proportion of those numbers are eligible to vote. However I think it's a not unreasonable assumption that Trump is not flavour of the month with the Hispanic community, voters or not.

    The recent scientific polling by Univision indicates Trump tanking with Clinton +30 in Florida, his best latino demographic with a 30% Cuban American community.
    That's a huge difference from +84 with this poll. Anyway, I thought these types of polls were supposed to come with a health warning?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794
    edited October 2016
    JackW said:

    Your initial question didn't make that clear.

    I'm not sure we are table o say what proportion of those numbers are eligible to vote. However I think it's a not unreasonable assumption that Trump is not flavour of the month with the Hispanic community, voters or not.

    The recent scientific polling by Univision indicates Trump tanking with Clinton +30 in Florida, his best latino demographic with a 30% Cuban American community.
    I don't deny any of that, but a viewer poll from a Spanish language channel isn't a good guide, didn't we have rules introduced for voodoo polling after the last debate?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,317

    Are you or have you recently been on an airplane?
    Just on my way to one actually.... spooky.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,795
    dr_spyn said:

    Corbyn taking Labour back to the 80s. 17 % points behind.

    Fire up the Quattro!
  • RobD said:

    Just on my way to one actually.... spooky.
    Ipsos Mori out later this week we think....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,317

    Ipsos Mori out later this week we think....
    Will be up a mountain then.. let's see if it's correlated with altitude instead :p
  • NEW THREAD

  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    MaxPB said:

    I don't deny any of that, but a viewer poll from a Spanish language channel isn't a good guide, didn't we have rules introduced for voodoo polling after the last debate?
    My understanding is that it is a scientific poll rather than a 'voodoo poll'. My apologies if I am incorrect.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Sam Baxter ‏@SamJ_Bax 9 mins9 minutes ago

    First post-conf Poll - Guardian/ICM:
    Con 43% (+2)
    Lab 26% (-2)
    UKIP 11% (-2)
    LD 8% (-1)
    Grn 6% (+2)

    Con lead 17%


    Yep, May's really called this one wrong....

    Theresa May's new grammar school policy doesn't seem to be unpopular with voters.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,253

    Fire up the Quattro!
    EMW, surely?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eisenacher_Motorenwerk
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Surprised by the post-debate polling tbh, I thought Trump edged it (and definitely not a fan). Then again, that's a male perspective - perhaps women are now looking at him very differently. Regardless, he really needed a knockout blow given the current polling in the key states, and clearly didn't get it.
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    Andrew said:

    Surprised by the post-debate polling tbh, I thought Trump edged it (and definitely not a fan). Then again, that's a male perspective - perhaps women are now looking at him very differently. Regardless, he really needed a knockout blow given the current polling in the key states, and clearly didn't get it.

    yeah. A score draw is useless for him
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    MattW said:

    Last week Jolyon Maugham posted this piece about how the GRB could potentially destroy their case by Ockham, so I think they are probably reflecting on strategy and keeping their powder dry to see what happens.

    http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/the-true-meaning-great-repeal-act-brexit-eu-referendum-theresa-may

    "Jolyon" is at risk of becoming a single namer like "Boris", especially as he is planning to become more of a character by living in a windmill like the Mouse in Old Amsterdam :-) .
    I loved that song and had the 45!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2fg7w49UnGA
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Tom Wilson
    More Brits definitely believe in Ghosts and UFOs than would vote Labour. https://t.co/LZwPBTo7la
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    PlatoSaid said:

    Tom Wilson
    More Brits definitely believe in Ghosts and UFOs than would vote Labour. https://t.co/LZwPBTo7la

    Spooky ....
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Purpleline
    Dawn Butler otherwise known as 'Acorn Brain' just called Duchess of Cambridge the Duchess of Wales. Labour has an intelligence deficit
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Moody Slayer
    The ICM poll isn't going down well with Guardian readers. https://t.co/WmEfLnPgRn
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,183
    edited October 2016
    ICM.

    Always the gold standard.

    Well done Mrs May!

    #24moreyears
This discussion has been closed.