politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov has Clinton winning the debate by 47% to 42%

HurstLlama said:

Jesus Christ on a bike, this site has got boring. The same arguments seem to be rehashed several times everyday by the same, small number, of people.

There's always the stock response (not used by you, I'm sure) that you can collect your entrance fee on the way out.

Essexit said:

FF43 said:

TGOHF said:

rcs1000 said:

David_Evershed said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. 1000, a time-limited EEA membership is an interesting idea.

Kicking the can down the road is a cop-out too far.

Were you a business person, would you invest in capacity in the UK, or would you choose somewhere else where you knew the answer to most of those questions?

So if you own a hotel you should never close for refurbishments which would improve your longer term prospects as you might have a short period of reduced room capacity ?

I don't think that's the correct analogy. It's more like a hotel removing themselves from online booking sites and requiring potential customers to send their bookings by post accompanied by a cheque and charging a fee to do so.

The risk is that customers will say, sod that, we'll go somewhere else.

So in your view of the modern economy the EU is digital and the rest of the world is analogue? That would explain the stunning economic success of continental Europe.

We're out of the Single Market in the same way a hotel is out of industry wide booking systems. Both cases make commercial relationships more difficult and more expensive.

chestnut said:

rcs1000 said:

chestnut said:

There was an example in circulation before the referendum relating to starter model Jaguars and Audis/BMWs.

On the assumption of a 10% currency movement and 10% tariff, the Jaguar became the more competitively priced car both in the UK and in Europe having been the more expensive product beforehand in both markets.

Has the currency move already exceeded 10%?

That Jaguar only has around 20% of its costs denominated in Sterling, because the steel, the electricity, the tyres, the gearbox, perhaps the engine, the electronics, etc., will all have been sourced in the international supply chain.

So, a 10% change in the value of Sterling moves the cost to a Euro purchaser by 2%.

And don't forget those European cars that derive significant amounts of their value from parts made in the UK will benefit similarly. So, a French Renault that bought seats from a UK supplier has just seen the cost of these decline.

What about labour costs? Land costs? Tax and social security costs imposed by the national governments?

The UK has become infinitely cheaper and more affordable to the European (and international) buyer, whereas 'old' Europe has become more expensive and less competitive by comparison.

I thought one desirable outcome of Brexit is that it will raise wages and herald the end of cheap imported labour?

619 said:

Alistair said:

MaxPB said:

Clinton offers the US nothing that Obama hasn't for 8 years and Obama has been useless.

Yet has amazing favourability ratings.

I will scream demographics just now. The Republicans have won the popular vote once in the last 6 attempts. This is only going to get worse for them unless they re-align.

Yeah. People saying Obama is a useless president ignore his high favourability ratings with the American public.

That's comparing different things. I'm sure you can see that.

TOPPING said:

FF43 said:

TGOHF said:

rcs1000 said:

David_Evershed said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. 1000, a time-limited EEA membership is an interesting idea.

Kicking the can down the road is a cop-out too far.

Were you a business person, would you invest in capacity in the UK, or would you choose somewhere else where you knew the answer to most of those questions?

So if you own a hotel you should never close for refurbishments which would improve your longer term prospects as you might have a short period of reduced room capacity ?

I don't think that's the correct analogy. It's more like a hotel removing themselves from online booking sites and requiring potential customers to send their bookings by post accompanied by a cheque and charging a fee to do so.

The risk is that customers will say, sod that, we'll go somewhere else.

I called Foyles really not so long ago. The recorded message said: "For enquiries, please send a stamped addressed envelope to Foyles, 107 Charing Cross Road..."

There you go @Casino_Royale and @HurstLlama - a change of topic for you. On to weightier matters.

Foyles still living in the 1950's as the world moves on...

FF43 said:

Essexit said:

FF43 said:

TGOHF said:

rcs1000 said:

David_Evershed said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. 1000, a time-limited EEA membership is an interesting idea.

Kicking the can down the road is a cop-out too far.

Were you a business person, would you invest in capacity in the UK, or would you choose somewhere else where you knew the answer to most of those questions?

So if you own a hotel you should never close for refurbishments which would improve your longer term prospects as you might have a short period of reduced room capacity ?

I don't think that's the correct analogy. It's more like a hotel removing themselves from online booking sites and requiring potential customers to send their bookings by post accompanied by a cheque and charging a fee to do so.

The risk is that customers will say, sod that, we'll go somewhere else.

So in your view of the modern economy the EU is digital and the rest of the world is analogue? That would explain the stunning economic success of continental Europe.

We're out of the Single Market in the same way a hotel is out of industry wide booking systems. Both cases make commercial relationships more difficult and more expensive.

Well, we're not out of it yet. There's a world outside Europe, most of it not in EU-like organisations, some of it doing very well economically. Within the Single Market there are several basket-cases.

Of course I accept that Single Market membership makes trade with 27 other countries easier, but that's not the only factor to consider.

chestnut said:

rcs1000 said:

chestnut said:

There was an example in circulation before the referendum relating to starter model Jaguars and Audis/BMWs.

On the assumption of a 10% currency movement and 10% tariff, the Jaguar became the more competitively priced car both in the UK and in Europe having been the more expensive product beforehand in both markets.

Has the currency move already exceeded 10%?

That Jaguar only has around 20% of its costs denominated in Sterling, because the steel, the electricity, the tyres, the gearbox, perhaps the engine, the electronics, etc., will all have been sourced in the international supply chain.

So, a 10% change in the value of Sterling moves the cost to a Euro purchaser by 2%.

And don't forget those European cars that derive significant amounts of their value from parts made in the UK will benefit similarly. So, a French Renault that bought seats from a UK supplier has just seen the cost of these decline.

What about labour costs? Land costs? Tax and social security costs imposed by the national governments?

The UK has become infinitely cheaper and more affordable to the European (and international) buyer, whereas 'old' Europe has become more expensive and less competitive by comparison.

That's easy enough to work out. The Sunderland Nissan plant produces 500,000 vehicles a year, and and employees 6,700 people. Let's assume the average wage is 40k. So, the annual wage bill is 268m. So, that means that the total wage bill per car is about 536 quid. A 10% fall in the price of sterling knocks 54 pounds off the production cost of a 20,000 pound Qashqai.

MarqueeMark said:

619 said:

Alistair said:

MaxPB said:

Clinton offers the US nothing that Obama hasn't for 8 years and Obama has been useless.

Yet has amazing favourability ratings.

I will scream demographics just now. The Republicans have won the popular vote once in the last 6 attempts. This is only going to get worse for them unless they re-align.

Yeah. People saying Obama is a useless president ignore his high favourability ratings with the American public.

His high ratings are surely a function of folks looking at who will succeed him?

That's an interesting and astute point. His ratings weren't so hot a year ago before the race to succeed him kicked off in earnest. It's not really been a great 21st century for presidents so far, has it? By contrast, the last two centuries had each produced by this stage an entry for Mount Rushmore.

taffys said:

'I will scream demographics just now. '

'demographics' is a very euphemistic way of describing the huge factor that race is now in US elections.

IF and when Hillary wins it will become an even bigger factor.

I doubt that it'd fail to become a bigger factor if it's Trump who wins.

CarlottaVance said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I wonder whether the fog is starting to lift in the heads of the useful idiots and they are beginning to see just how badly they were had? It's all too late now of course.

It's hard to see now how we don't end up with hard Brexit (better described as car crash Brexit). The alternative requires a screeching handbrake turn from the Prime Minister that would destroy her credibility or a screeching handbrake turn from the EU that would destroy the credibility of numerous senior politicians across the EU. The former is slightly more likely than the latter, but neither seems remotely likely to me.

Your de haute en bas condescension worked so persuasively (along with the REMAIN campaign in general) during the referendum one wonders at you continuing to deploy it....

Are these the same 'useful idiots' who predicted economic calamity and factory closures if we didn't join the Euro, and when that didn't happen, again promised economic calamity and factory closures if we leave the EU?

The only handbrake turns so far are from those who predicted an Immediate shock and recession if we had the temerity even to vote to leave.....

I think most commentary at the time was that it was working class voters who would be the "useful idiots", duped by economically liberal Leave campaigners.

I think most of us thought that if Leave won, either Johnson or Gove would take over. We hadn't factored in their destroying each other. Nor had we considered that Theresa May would so clearly welcome a Leave vote.

Guardian/ICM poll gives Tories 17-point post-conference lead

Political parties normally expect a modest post-conference bounce in the polls (because, if they are half-competent at PR, they can generally create a large quantity of mostly favourable media coverage) but the Conservatives will be delighted with the latest findings from the regular Guardian/ICM poll. It gives them a 17-point lead.

Here are the new figures, and how they compare to the previous Guardian/ICM polling figures from early September, before the conference season started.

Conservatives: 43% (up 2)

Labour: 26% (down 2)

Ukip: 11% (down 2)

Lib Dems: 8% (down 1)

Greens: 6% (up 2)

The fieldwork was carried out from Friday to Sunday.

The 17-point lead is the joint second highest ever recorded for the Conservatives by ICM in its polling series going back to 1992. They only once got a higher lead (20 points in June 2008, when Gordon Brown was at his most unpopular) although in September and October 2009 they also had a 17-point lead in ICM polls. But Labour did have larger polling leads at various points in the Blair era.

At 26%, the Labour figure is only one point higher than their lowest rating in ICM polling - the 25% they hit in June 2008 and August 2009.

Link here

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/oct/10/jeremy-corbyn-labour-rehsuffle-continues-labour-reshuffle-politics-live?CMP=share_btn_tw

TheScreamingEagles said:

Guardian/ICM poll gives Tories 17-point post-conference lead

Political parties normally expect a modest post-conference bounce in the polls (because, if they are half-competent at PR, they can generally create a large quantity of mostly favourable media coverage) but the Conservatives will be delighted with the latest findings from the regular Guardian/ICM poll. It gives them a 17-point lead.

Here are the new figures, and how they compare to the previous Guardian/ICM polling figures from early September, before the conference season started.

Conservatives: 43% (up 2)

Labour: 26% (down 2)

Ukip: 11% (down 2)

Lib Dems: 8% (down 1)

Greens: 6% (up 2)

The fieldwork was carried out from Friday to Sunday.

The 17-point lead is the joint second highest ever recorded for the Conservatives by ICM in its polling series going back to 1992. They only once got a higher lead (20 points in June 2008, when Gordon Brown was at his most unpopular) although in September and October 2009 they also had a 17-point lead in ICM polls. But Labour did have larger polling leads at various points in the Blair era.

At 26%, the Labour figure is only one point higher than their lowest rating in ICM polling - the 25% they hit in June 2008 and August 2009.

Theresa needs to "Go For It" next Spring!

Casino_Royale said:

Essexit said:

FF43 said:

Essexit said:

FF43 said:

TGOHF said:

rcs1000 said:

David_Evershed said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. 1000, a time-limited EEA membership is an interesting idea.

Kicking the can down the road is a cop-out too far.

Were you a business person, would you invest in capacity in the UK, or would you choose somewhere else where you knew the answer to most of those questions?

So if you own a hotel you should never close for refurbishments which would improve your longer term prospects as you might have a short period of reduced room capacity ?

I don't think that's the correct analogy. It's more like a hotel removing themselves from online booking sites and requiring potential customers to send their bookings by post accompanied by a cheque and charging a fee to do so.

The risk is that customers will say, sod that, we'll go somewhere else.

So in your view of the modern economy the EU is digital and the rest of the world is analogue? That would explain the stunning economic success of continental Europe.

We're out of the Single Market in the same way a hotel is out of industry wide booking systems. Both cases make commercial relationships more difficult and more expensive.

Well, we're not out of it yet. There's a world outside Europe, most of it not in EU-like organisations, some of it doing very well economically. Within the Single Market there are several basket-cases.

Of course I accept that Single Market membership makes trade with 27 other countries easier, but that's not the only factor to consider.

It is almost certainly true that leaving the single market and customs union will result in a net increase in UK trading barriers to the EU 27*, compared to what we have now, because exports will subsequently deal with clearing EU customs hurdles, we will no longer be part of a single regulatory regime (having to demonstrate compliance instead) and services may not be able to seemlessly be offered across the UK/EU border.

Where Remainers and Leavers usually differ is in how much of a big deal this is in the medium-long term, both generally concede short-term disruption.

On the credit side, it will also allow the UK to establish its own regulatory regime, pursue its own trade agreements, and have full democratic control of all domestic policy, which may enhance democracy at home and allow us to respond more flexibly and quickly to global events in future.

Not another post about effing Brexit? Give it a rest will you?

Slackbladder said:

Sam Baxter ‏@SamJ_Bax 9 mins9 minutes ago

First post-conf Poll - Guardian/ICM:
Con 43% (+2)
Lab 26% (-2)
UKIP 11% (-2)
LD 8% (-1)
Grn 6% (+2)

Con lead 17%


Yep, May's really called this one wrong....

21st Century Socialism going down well...

Slackbladder said:

Sam Baxter ‏@SamJ_Bax 9 mins9 minutes ago

First post-conf Poll - Guardian/ICM:
Con 43% (+2)
Lab 26% (-2)
UKIP 11% (-2)
LD 8% (-1)
Grn 6% (+2)

Con lead 17%


Yep, May's really called this one wrong....

According to Baxter, this gives 382 Conservatives to 181 Labour.

david_herdson said:

Alistair said:

MaxPB said:

Clinton offers the US nothing that Obama hasn't for 8 years and Obama has been useless.

Yet has amazing favourability ratings.

I will scream demographics just now. The Republicans have won the popular vote once in the last 6 attempts. This is only going to get worse for them unless they re-align.

At presidential level, yes. At a Congressional level, the GOP has won six of the eight House elections this century (by seats; five if counted by votes).

Even in 2012, the Republicans were only 1% behind the Democrats in terms of votes for the House (unopposed returns mean the real gap was probably about 0.5%).

Sean_F said:

CarlottaVance said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I wonder whether the fog is starting to lift in the heads of the useful idiots and they are beginning to see just how badly they were had? It's all too late now of course.

It's hard to see now how we don't end up with hard Brexit (better described as car crash Brexit). The alternative requires a screeching handbrake turn from the Prime Minister that would destroy her credibility or a screeching handbrake turn from the EU that would destroy the credibility of numerous senior politicians across the EU. The former is slightly more likely than the latter, but neither seems remotely likely to me.

Your de haute en bas condescension worked so persuasively (along with the REMAIN campaign in general) during the referendum one wonders at you continuing to deploy it....

Are these the same 'useful idiots' who predicted economic calamity and factory closures if we didn't join the Euro, and when that didn't happen, again promised economic calamity and factory closures if we leave the EU?

The only handbrake turns so far are from those who predicted an Immediate shock and recession if we had the temerity even to vote to leave.....

I think most commentary at the time was that it was working class voters who would be the "useful idiots", duped by economically liberal Leave campaigners.

Looks like it was the 'economically liberal Leave campaigners' who were the 'useful idiots' as Mrs May prepares to deliver the working class voters what they want...

TheScreamingEagles said:

Guardian/ICM poll gives Tories 17-point post-conference lead

Political parties normally expect a modest post-conference bounce in the polls (because, if they are half-competent at PR, they can generally create a large quantity of mostly favourable media coverage) but the Conservatives will be delighted with the latest findings from the regular Guardian/ICM poll. It gives them a 17-point lead.

Here are the new figures, and how they compare to the previous Guardian/ICM polling figures from early September, before the conference season started.

Conservatives: 43% (up 2)

Labour: 26% (down 2)

Ukip: 11% (down 2)

Lib Dems: 8% (down 1)

Greens: 6% (up 2)

The fieldwork was carried out from Friday to Sunday.

The 17-point lead is the joint second highest ever recorded for the Conservatives by ICM in its polling series going back to 1992. They only once got a higher lead (20 points in June 2008, when Gordon Brown was at his most unpopular) although in September and October 2009 they also had a 17-point lead in ICM polls. But Labour did have larger polling leads at various points in the Blair era.

At 26%, the Labour figure is only one point higher than their lowest rating in ICM polling - the 25% they hit in June 2008 and August 2009.

God, the Lib Dems are shite. You'd think that they would at least try and appeal to centrist Con voters not enthused by TMay's apparent love of big state intervention. Just fucking shut the party down, time for a mercy killing so at least the old Liberal Party could make a comeback.

PlatoSaid said:

Golly

Martin Boon
@guardian @ICMResearch +17 Con poll lead 2nd highest ever in series. Lab on 24% w/o post field adjustments. https://t.co/axDRz1liL1

24% for Lab feels right to me. It will lucky to be above 20% after a 5 week GE campaign if Corybn is still in charge.

CarlottaVance said:

Sean_F said:

CarlottaVance said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I wonder whether the fog is starting to lift in the heads of the useful idiots and they are beginning to see just how badly they were had? It's all too late now of course.

It's hard to see now how we don't end up with hard Brexit (better described as car crash Brexit). The alternative requires a screeching handbrake turn from the Prime Minister that would destroy her credibility or a screeching handbrake turn from the EU that would destroy the credibility of numerous senior politicians across the EU. The former is slightly more likely than the latter, but neither seems remotely likely to me.

Your de haute en bas condescension worked so persuasively (along with the REMAIN campaign in general) during the referendum one wonders at you continuing to deploy it....

Are these the same 'useful idiots' who predicted economic calamity and factory closures if we didn't join the Euro, and when that didn't happen, again promised economic calamity and factory closures if we leave the EU?

The only handbrake turns so far are from those who predicted an Immediate shock and recession if we had the temerity even to vote to leave.....

I think most commentary at the time was that it was working class voters who would be the "useful idiots", duped by economically liberal Leave campaigners.

'economically liberal Leave campaigners'

Or "PB Leavers" as they are also known.

Slackbladder said:

TOPPING said:

Slackbladder said:

Sam Baxter ‏@SamJ_Bax 9 mins9 minutes ago

First post-conf Poll - Guardian/ICM:
Con 43% (+2)
Lab 26% (-2)
UKIP 11% (-2)
LD 8% (-1)
Grn 6% (+2)

Con lead 17%


Yep, May's really called this one wrong....

I think Jezza has been the one calling it wrong.

And of course the Real Fight Club party. Well done the Greens for providing a safe space for perplexed voters.

When the Greens are seen as more compentent and electable then labour is, you know labour is DOOMED.

The current 'progressive majority' = 26+8+6 = 40.

We shouldn't crow too much. There are probably bumpy times ahead of us.

Slackbladder said:

Con lead 17%

Yep, May's really called this one wrong....

I read it here.....several times......

rottenborough said:

PlatoSaid said:

Golly

Martin Boon
@guardian @ICMResearch +17 Con poll lead 2nd highest ever in series. Lab on 24% w/o post field adjustments. https://t.co/axDRz1liL1

24% for Lab feels right to me. It will lucky to be above 20% after a 5 week GE campaign if Corybn is still in charge.

The followers of the Messiah are going to be very confused and angry! Everybody they know and follow on twitter thinks that Jezza is brilliant.

CarlottaVance said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The 17-point lead is the joint second highest ever recorded for the Conservatives by ICM in its polling series going back to 1992.

The full scale of May's disastrous conference is revealed....

Gordon Brown used to get conference bounces too.

https://twitter.com/momentumtrump2/status/785437526970527744

TheScreamingEagles said:

CarlottaVance said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The 17-point lead is the joint second highest ever recorded for the Conservatives by ICM in its polling series going back to 1992.

The full scale of May's disastrous conference is revealed....

Gordon Brown used to get conference bounces too.

LOL!

People aged over 55 in England hold more wealth in the value of their properties than the entire annual GDP of Italy, new research suggests.

http://news.sky.com/story/over-55s-in-england-housing-wealth-worth-more-than-italian-gdp-10612037?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter

Juan Williams of "Fox News" via "The Hill" looks at how Trump's Cuba historic business connections are damaging him in Florida :

http://thehill.com/opinion/juan-williams/299931-juan-williams-cuba-connection-will-cost-trump-dear

With Ed they used to say just wait until you get to know the real Ed....I am sure a significant proportion of the population still don't know what the real Jahadi Jez and McMao views are.

rottenborough said:

GIN1138 said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Guardian/ICM poll gives Tories 17-point post-conference lead

Political parties normally expect a modest post-conference bounce in the polls (because, if they are half-competent at PR, they can generally create a large quantity of mostly favourable media coverage) but the Conservatives will be delighted with the latest findings from the regular Guardian/ICM poll. It gives them a 17-point lead.

Here are the new figures, and how they compare to the previous Guardian/ICM polling figures from early September, before the conference season started.

Conservatives: 43% (up 2)

Labour: 26% (down 2)

Ukip: 11% (down 2)

Lib Dems: 8% (down 1)

Greens: 6% (up 2)

The fieldwork was carried out from Friday to Sunday.

The 17-point lead is the joint second highest ever recorded for the Conservatives by ICM in its polling series going back to 1992. They only once got a higher lead (20 points in June 2008, when Gordon Brown was at his most unpopular) although in September and October 2009 they also had a 17-point lead in ICM polls. But Labour did have larger polling leads at various points in the Blair era.

At 26%, the Labour figure is only one point higher than their lowest rating in ICM polling - the 25% they hit in June 2008 and August 2009.

God, the Lib Dems are shite. You'd think that they would at least try and appeal to centrist Con voters not enthused by TMay's apparent love of big state intervention. Just fucking shut the party down, time for a mercy killing so at least the old Liberal Party could make a comeback.

I think Tony might be about to launch a new Party for Con lefties and Lab righties!

Progressive Democrats?

Social Democrats?

Philip Collins ‏@PCollinsTimes 5m5 minutes ago
Philip Collins Retweeted Oliver Kamm
26 per cent! Ludicrously high. I think Labour can dip further.


Blairite scum bag etc etc.

CarlottaVance said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

CarlottaVance said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The 17-point lead is the joint second highest ever recorded for the Conservatives by ICM in its polling series going back to 1992.

The full scale of May's disastrous conference is revealed....

Gordon Brown used to get conference bounces too.

Did Gordon ever have a 17 point lead?

Or IDS, who you regularly compare May to?

Brown had a 13% lead after the 2007 Labour conference.

Sean_F said:

We shouldn't crow too much. There are probably bumpy times ahead of us.

Quite right Sean .... It might get so much worse for Jezza & Co ....

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

CarlottaVance said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

CarlottaVance said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The 17-point lead is the joint second highest ever recorded for the Conservatives by ICM in its polling series going back to 1992.

The full scale of May's disastrous conference is revealed....

Gordon Brown used to get conference bounces too.

Did Gordon ever have a 17 point lead?

Or IDS, who you regularly compare May to?

Brown had a 13% lead after the 2007 Labour conference.

Gord's biggest lead was 13% with MORI but with ICM it was never greater than 8% again around 2007 Lab conference;

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2005-2010

I'm hopeful that we'll get the Ipsos Mori poll this week.

TheScreamingEagles said:

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

CarlottaVance said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

CarlottaVance said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The 17-point lead is the joint second highest ever recorded for the Conservatives by ICM in its polling series going back to 1992.

The full scale of May's disastrous conference is revealed....

Gordon Brown used to get conference bounces too.

Did Gordon ever have a 17 point lead?

Or IDS, who you regularly compare May to?

Brown had a 13% lead after the 2007 Labour conference.

Gord's biggest lead was 13% with MORI but with ICM it was never greater than 8% again around 2007 Lab conference;

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2005-2010

I'm hopeful that we'll get the Ipsos Mori poll this week.

Given they tend to be quite volatile they might have Con over 50%?

nunu said:

This is what is wrong with Hillary's campaign. Trump has a message that can resonate atleast superficially:
A month away from the election, she still seems to have no big vision for America. She has plenty of policy ideas, sure, tweaks here and there to what we’re doing now, but she is insistent that the country is moving generally in the right direction. Also, she loves kids. That’s not a message, and neither is “Stronger Together.”
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/commentary-who-won-the-second-presidential-debate-donald-trump-hillary-clinton/

I particularly enjoyed her line when 'answering' the first question last night - "America is great when we're good" or something like that. I mean yes Hillary, but what of it?

What's happened with A50 court case? All seems to have gone very quiet?

619 said:

https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/785346001989165056

One more post to 619!

My ICM poll stat of the day

https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/785441886827900928?lang=en-gb

TheScreamingEagles said:

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

CarlottaVance said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

CarlottaVance said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The 17-point lead is the joint second highest ever recorded for the Conservatives by ICM in its polling series going back to 1992.

The full scale of May's disastrous conference is revealed....

Gordon Brown used to get conference bounces too.

Did Gordon ever have a 17 point lead?

Or IDS, who you regularly compare May to?

Brown had a 13% lead after the 2007 Labour conference.

Gord's biggest lead was 13% with MORI but with ICM it was never greater than 8% again around 2007 Lab conference;

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2005-2010

I'm hopeful that we'll get the Ipsos Mori poll this week.

Given they tend to be quite volatile they might have Con over 50%?

Yes in September 2008, when the Tories polled 52% and had a 28% lead over Labour.

That's the sort of score Theresa May should be aiming for. It is a decent benchmark.

She needs a score of 45+ IMO to feel secure.

david_herdson said:

My ICM poll stat of the day

https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/785441886827900928?lang=en-gb

UKIP on 8% with 65 year olds?

Seems low....

david_herdson said:

My ICM poll stat of the day

https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/785441886827900928?lang=en-gb

Labour looks pretty much !%^£^&£*"^£$"&"(!(! and (*"^%"$!£"^"&£*£("&% on those numbers!