politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TMay needs a sizeable CON majority in Witney to deal with t

Stark_Dawning said:

'The Tories have to win Witney and win big.'

Quite right Mike. If the Tories lost here it would be catastrophic. I think that's unlikely; nevertheless there are a few reasons why the Witney voters might upset the apple cart:

1) They take a dim view of the manner in which May humiliated their Dave and set about trashing his legacy.

2) They react badly to May's capitulation to the hard-Brexit ultras.

3) They regard May as a bit suburban and down-at-heel - she walks over their land, for example, rather than riding horses on it - and want to teach her a lesson for her presumptions.

Again, I think a loss is unlikely. Having said that, until Cameron, Tories' getting humiliated in by-elections was a given. Perhaps those days will be upon us again soon.

Stark_Dawning said:

'The Tories have to win Witney and win big.'

Quite right Mike. If the Tories lost here it would be catastrophic. I think that's unlikely; nevertheless there are a few reasons why the Witney voters might upset the apple cart:

1) They take a dim view of the manner in which May humiliated their Dave and set about trashing his legacy.

2) They react badly to May's capitulation to the hard-Brexit ultras.

3) They regard May as a bit suburban and down-at-heel - she walks over their land, for example, rather than riding horses on it - and want to teach her a lesson for her presumptions.

Again, I think a loss is unlikely. Having said that, until Cameron, Tories' getting humiliated in by-elections was a given. Perhaps those days will be upon us again soon.

Sean_F said:

CarlottaVance said:

justin124 said:

I am not persuaded that Witney is so important for May. Callaghan succeeded Wilson in April 1976 , and a few months later Labour suffered disastrous by election results at Workington and Walsall North. Similarly the Tories lost Ribble Valley not long after Major became PM.Neither Callaghan nor Major were particularly undermined by those setbacks.

A little expectations framing going on by OGH?

Con hold with reduced majority = 'catastrophe'

Con loss - MAY MUST RESIGN!!!

Witney clearly has a huge personal vote for Cameron - it would be odd if the Con vote share didn't fall...

TBH, I'd expect a very big fall in the Conservative majority. The PM's personal vote will have gone, and we're now in mid-term, so people use by-elections as a chance to kick the government. I'd expect the Conservatives' vote share to be in the region of 40-45~%.

Philip_Thompson said:

MTimT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MTimT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MTimT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TGOHF said:

felix said:

I see the £ has resumed it's slide today as Brexit continues to have it's long, slow effect. Of course as Harold Wilson used to tell us ' the £ in your pocket won't be affected'. I'd forgotten just how loved he was as one of the Tories greatest ever Prime Ministers

I guess that explains why the metropolitan wealthy with second homes abroad are so furious that the peasants voted for Brexit.

Peasants is such an inaccurate term. I prefer the term 'thick uneducated plebs'

TSE morphing into Mr Meeks. Someone call a doctor before it's too late.

Well it is either that or Leavers are traitors.

Surprisingly, I don't agree that the choice is between those two descriptions.

If I get the time, I shall publish a thread comparing Leavers to The Confederates States, and I'm trying to work out who the British Lincoln is.

I kinda know who shall be Ulysses S Grant is though

Lincoln is Boris

I have Boris down as Grant.

How is Boris Grant if the Leavers are Confederates? Or do you have him switching sides?

The Leavers won. They are the USA, the Remainers are Confederates.

TonyE said:

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

FrankBooth said:

SeanT - You have the thorny issue of school funding. London schools have been better funded. I'm not sure the reasons for this are entirely clear. Some say it is due to local authorities in London being more ready to put money in. But I think the difference is rather substantial. It could at least be mentioned whenever people discuss the difference in attainment in London compared to Brexitland rather than just going on about the London Challenge and 'aspiration'.

Oh I agree. The success of London schools is a complex phenomenon - demographics, money, migration, competition, the attraction of the city to the best teachers, etc etc etc. There should be a prize for the first academic to work it all out - and how it can be replicated.

Actually grammar school is not a bad way of doing it, if they are flexible and put in the right place. The poorest and worst performing boroughs should get them, and they should be restricted to those areas, maybe?

Tricky.

OK now I have to work

London schools were by and large appalling in the mid-1990s. Now they are clearly the best in the country. Something has happened.

Demographic shift.

williamglenn said:

SeanT said:

tpfkar said:

SeanT said:

My analogy is near-perfect, as I am sure Richard Nabavi would agree.

It also explains why Remainers are so bitter. They never wanted to have kids. They never wanted this fucking brat, and now they have to sit in a room full of soiled nappies for three years?? And never go out again and have fun?>

Some of the nuttier ones are still hoping for a dangerous illegal abortion at the last minute, no matter the risk to the mother, or they hope to smother the baby in the crib.

Not quite there Sean. Having a baby is an additional blessing / burden - but for the unconsolable Remainers, it's more about having something they valued forcibly taken away by others. I'm not sure you get that across in the extra responsibility of an unprepared parent - maybe the better analogy is having your child taken into care against your wishes, even though your relationship had many flaws?

No, my analogy is flawless. The Remainers are angry because their freedom of movement has been taken away, and their identity as europolitan singletons, now they've become a boring parent, plus they can't go clubbing any more.

And then it turns out that the real father is Nigel Farage who continues to swan around the world producing bastards.

TheScreamingEagles said:

MTimT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MTimT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TGOHF said:

felix said:

I see the £ has resumed it's slide today as Brexit continues to have it's long, slow effect. Of course as Harold Wilson used to tell us ' the £ in your pocket won't be affected'. I'd forgotten just how loved he was as one of the Tories greatest ever Prime Ministers

I guess that explains why the metropolitan wealthy with second homes abroad are so furious that the peasants voted for Brexit.

Peasants is such an inaccurate term. I prefer the term 'thick uneducated plebs'

TSE morphing into Mr Meeks. Someone call a doctor before it's too late.

Well it is either that or Leavers are traitors.

Surprisingly, I don't agree that the choice is between those two descriptions.

If I get the time, I shall publish a thread comparing Leavers to The Confederates States, and I'm trying to work out who the British Lincoln is.

I kinda know who shall be Ulysses S Grant is though

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

@SeanT - We had our first child when we were ready and had a good idea of what the downsides were before we had him - less sleep, less freedom - we also knew that he was going to be born healthy and so there were no surprises. On top of that, we knew that we had a strong support structure of relatives and friends around us, all of who had nothing but love and goodwill in their hearts. Furthermore, we had seen friends have babies and we had been brought up ourselves. In short, we were prepared, though obviously we were nervous. So I don't buy the baby analogy!

Our business will take very little if any hit long-term hit from Brexit and in the short-term we have actually seen our profits exceed forecast in Q1 - largely because we bill in dollars and Euros, not pounds. When the time comes, we will open our office in the rEU, do our single market business from there and nothing much will change. All it will mean is that jobs we would have created in the UK, the investments we would have made and the taxes we would have paid will all be created, made and paid elsewhere in Europe. We're small and completely insignificant, but if many other businesses that do a lot of single market work follow our lead it will have an effect. That's just a simple fact of life.

Going back to the parent thing. I have three kids. They were already facing a tough fight to build the kind of standard of living that we (you, me and plenty of others on here) have enjoyed. I think Brexit makes it even tougher. I hope to God I am wrong.

You still don't understand my baby analogy, but let's leave it

On the practicalities, Hammond said today that he still agreed with the more pessimistic economic forecasts for Brexit, which was and is a 4% fall in GDP - over the next fifteen years, compared to what we might have enjoyed

That's about 0.3% a year?

In the grand scheme of things, and set against the epic scale of British history, it's tiny.

FF43 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MTimT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MTimT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TGOHF said:

felix said:

I see the £ has resumed it's slide today as Brexit continues to have it's long, slow effect. Of course as Harold Wilson used to tell us ' the £ in your pocket won't be affected'. I'd forgotten just how loved he was as one of the Tories greatest ever Prime Ministers

I guess that explains why the metropolitan wealthy with second homes abroad are so furious that the peasants voted for Brexit.

Peasants is such an inaccurate term. I prefer the term 'thick uneducated plebs'

TSE morphing into Mr Meeks. Someone call a doctor before it's too late.

Well it is either that or Leavers are traitors.

Surprisingly, I don't agree that the choice is between those two descriptions.

If I get the time, I shall publish a thread comparing Leavers to The Confederates States, and I'm trying to work out who the British Lincoln is.

I kinda know who shall be Ulysses S Grant is though

The would-be "Abraham Lincoln" is Jean-Claude Juncker. Who is clearly no Lincoln and that is why the "Confederates" won this one. The Union victory in the US wasn't nailed on. They had to win while a stalemate would have been enough for the other side. It's possible without the real Lincoln the real Confederates would have lost.

felix said:

Philip_Thompson said:

felix said:

Pulpstar said:

felix said:

I see the £ has resumed it's slide today as Brexit continues to have it's long, slow effect. Of course as Harold Wilson used to tell us ' the £ in your pocket won't be affected'. I'd forgotten just how loved he was as one of the Tories greatest ever Prime Ministers

Well my mortgage and day to day expenses are still in £ sterling, and I bought my new camera pre-brexit

Presumably you only buy full UK sourced products since Brexit.

CPI has gone up by 0.1% and is still TOO LOW. When it reaches 2% how about we have this conversation?

Lol - just love the way you all pretend that the nose-diving £ is the greatest thing since sliced bread when you know it just ain't true.

Sean_F said:

CarlottaVance said:

justin124 said:

I am not persuaded that Witney is so important for May. Callaghan succeeded Wilson in April 1976 , and a few months later Labour suffered disastrous by election results at Workington and Walsall North. Similarly the Tories lost Ribble Valley not long after Major became PM.Neither Callaghan nor Major were particularly undermined by those setbacks.

A little expectations framing going on by OGH?

Con hold with reduced majority = 'catastrophe'

Con loss - MAY MUST RESIGN!!!

Witney clearly has a huge personal vote for Cameron - it would be odd if the Con vote share didn't fall...

TBH, I'd expect a very big fall in the Conservative majority. The PM's personal vote will have gone, and we're now in mid-term, so people use by-elections as a chance to kick the government. I'd expect the Conservatives' vote share to be in the region of 40-45~%.

MarkSenior said:

FWIW , my initial forecast for Witney is something like Con 45 LD 28 Lab 12 UKIP 5 Green 5 All others 5 . The local elections last May with Con 49 Lab 20 LD 18 are nearer the starting positions than the last GE figures .

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

FF43 said:

SeanT said:

FPT for FF33


"It's about markets. If your market is Europe, which is almost synonymous with the EU, you are in the market you serve if you are based in the EU and not if you are based in the Brexited UK. If you don't need to be in the market to serve it, you can be anywhere - China, USA, Mexico. The UK loses out either way."

The problem with all these negative analyses of post-Brexit Britain, and why they are already proving to be overly pessimistic, is that they presume we are just a passive observer. A nation to which things are done. The submissive in a BDSM relationship with Europe, the world, and reality.

They ignore the possibility - indeed likelihood - that post-Brexit Britain will DO STUFF to make the nation more attractive to investment, better for banks, extra-welcoming to smarter migrants, and so forth, to counteract the negatives of Brexit.

The gloomier Remainers also refuse the possibility that Britain will simply benefit as a country from governing itself: we won't have anyone else to blame any more.

Brexit will being major difficulties. But also major opportunities

Nevertheless, the point I made about markets is still valid. To compensate for no longer being inside the largest and deepest single internal market in the world we either have to be better than those that are still there or we have to be better than those that have always been outside it. Leaving the EU doesn't make it easier for us to improve beyond we could have done, and maybe should have done, anyway. At best leaving the EU is a jolt to our previous complacency. It doesn't bring any opportunities, as such. I do however believe in making the best of the situation we are in. We didn't do that before. But it does mean recognising there is a problem.

The US is the largest single market in the world. Please stop repeating the falsehood that it is the EU. The single market for services doesn't even really exist.

Come on Max, the EU is the largest trading bloc in the world (as measured by number of regulations).

logical_song said:

Sean_F said:

CarlottaVance said:

justin124 said:

I am not persuaded that Witney is so important for May. Callaghan succeeded Wilson in April 1976 , and a few months later Labour suffered disastrous by election results at Workington and Walsall North. Similarly the Tories lost Ribble Valley not long after Major became PM.Neither Callaghan nor Major were particularly undermined by those setbacks.

A little expectations framing going on by OGH?

Con hold with reduced majority = 'catastrophe'

Con loss - MAY MUST RESIGN!!!

Witney clearly has a huge personal vote for Cameron - it would be odd if the Con vote share didn't fall...

TBH, I'd expect a very big fall in the Conservative majority. The PM's personal vote will have gone, and we're now in mid-term, so people use by-elections as a chance to kick the government. I'd expect the Conservatives' vote share to be in the region of 40-45~%.

You really think that the Tory vote in Witney would drop 20%, so they would lose one third of Cameron's vote?
That sounds like a terrible defeat for them even if they hold on to the seat. At 40% they could actually lose it, with 60% available for their opponents to share.
I can't see them dropping that far, it seems like expectation management all right - on your part.

Philip_Thompson said:

felix said:

Philip_Thompson said:

felix said:

Pulpstar said:

felix said:

I see the £ has resumed it's slide today as Brexit continues to have it's long, slow effect. Of course as Harold Wilson used to tell us ' the £ in your pocket won't be affected'. I'd forgotten just how loved he was as one of the Tories greatest ever Prime Ministers

Well my mortgage and day to day expenses are still in £ sterling, and I bought my new camera pre-brexit

Presumably you only buy full UK sourced products since Brexit.

CPI has gone up by 0.1% and is still TOO LOW. When it reaches 2% how about we have this conversation?

Lol - just love the way you all pretend that the nose-diving £ is the greatest thing since sliced bread when you know it just ain't true.

It isn't great but it isn't a disaster either. It simply is what it is.

Con    46
LD     21
Lab    14
UKIP    9
Green   6
Other   4

Philip_Thompson said:

logical_song said:

Sean_F said:

CarlottaVance said:

justin124 said:

I am not persuaded that Witney is so important for May. Callaghan succeeded Wilson in April 1976 , and a few months later Labour suffered disastrous by election results at Workington and Walsall North. Similarly the Tories lost Ribble Valley not long after Major became PM.Neither Callaghan nor Major were particularly undermined by those setbacks.

A little expectations framing going on by OGH?

Con hold with reduced majority = 'catastrophe'

Con loss - MAY MUST RESIGN!!!

Witney clearly has a huge personal vote for Cameron - it would be odd if the Con vote share didn't fall...

TBH, I'd expect a very big fall in the Conservative majority. The PM's personal vote will have gone, and we're now in mid-term, so people use by-elections as a chance to kick the government. I'd expect the Conservatives' vote share to be in the region of 40-45~%.

You really think that the Tory vote in Witney would drop 20%, so they would lose one third of Cameron's vote?
That sounds like a terrible defeat for them even if they hold on to the seat. At 40% they could actually lose it, with 60% available for their opponents to share.
I can't see them dropping that far, it seems like expectation management all right - on your part.

45% is what Cameron got first time. Of course the PM likely has a major personal vote that can be lost the swings in Witney under Cameron have far exceeded normal swings and that could revert to mean this time.

FF43 said:

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

FF43 said:

SeanT said:

FPT for FF33


"It's about markets. If your market is Europe, which is almost synonymous with the EU, you are in the market you serve if you are based in the EU and not if you are based in the Brexited UK. If you don't need to be in the market to serve it, you can be anywhere - China, USA, Mexico. The UK loses out either way."

The problem with all these negative analyses of post-Brexit Britain, and why they are already proving to be overly pessimistic, is that they presume we are just a passive observer. A nation to which things are done. The submissive in a BDSM relationship with Europe, the world, and reality.

They ignore the possibility - indeed likelihood - that post-Brexit Britain will DO STUFF to make the nation more attractive to investment, better for banks, extra-welcoming to smarter migrants, and so forth, to counteract the negatives of Brexit.

The gloomier Remainers also refuse the possibility that Britain will simply benefit as a country from governing itself: we won't have anyone else to blame any more.

Brexit will being major difficulties. But also major opportunities

Nevertheless, the point I made about markets is still valid. To compensate for no longer being inside the largest and deepest single internal market in the world we either have to be better than those that are still there or we have to be better than those that have always been outside it. Leaving the EU doesn't make it easier for us to improve beyond we could have done, and maybe should have done, anyway. At best leaving the EU is a jolt to our previous complacency. It doesn't bring any opportunities, as such. I do however believe in making the best of the situation we are in. We didn't do that before. But it does mean recognising there is a problem.

The US is the largest single market in the world. Please stop repeating the falsehood that it is the EU. The single market for services doesn't even really exist.

Come on Max, the EU is the largest trading bloc in the world (as measured by number of regulations).

I know this is a pointless discussion, but do you think the EU including the member states, has more regulations in total than the USA including both federal and States?

FF43 said:

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

FF43 said:

SeanT said:

FPT for FF33


"It's about markets. If your market is Europe, which is almost synonymous with the EU, you are in the market you serve if you are based in the EU and not if you are based in the Brexited UK. If you don't need to be in the market to serve it, you can be anywhere - China, USA, Mexico. The UK loses out either way."

The problem with all these negative analyses of post-Brexit Britain, and why they are already proving to be overly pessimistic, is that they presume we are just a passive observer. A nation to which things are done. The submissive in a BDSM relationship with Europe, the world, and reality.

They ignore the possibility - indeed likelihood - that post-Brexit Britain will DO STUFF to make the nation more attractive to investment, better for banks, extra-welcoming to smarter migrants, and so forth, to counteract the negatives of Brexit.

The gloomier Remainers also refuse the possibility that Britain will simply benefit as a country from governing itself: we won't have anyone else to blame any more.

Brexit will being major difficulties. But also major opportunities

Nevertheless, the point I made about markets is still valid. To compensate for no longer being inside the largest and deepest single internal market in the world we either have to be better than those that are still there or we have to be better than those that have always been outside it. Leaving the EU doesn't make it easier for us to improve beyond we could have done, and maybe should have done, anyway. At best leaving the EU is a jolt to our previous complacency. It doesn't bring any opportunities, as such. I do however believe in making the best of the situation we are in. We didn't do that before. But it does mean recognising there is a problem.

The US is the largest single market in the world. Please stop repeating the falsehood that it is the EU. The single market for services doesn't even really exist.

Come on Max, the EU is the largest trading bloc in the world (as measured by number of regulations).

I know this is a pointless discussion, but do you think the EU including the member states, has more regulations in total than the USA including both federal and States?

FF43 said:

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

FF43 said:

SeanT said:

FPT for FF33


"It's about markets. If your market is Europe, which is almost synonymous with the EU, you are in the market you serve if you are based in the EU and not if you are based in the Brexited UK. If you don't need to be in the market to serve it, you can be anywhere - China, USA, Mexico. The UK loses out either way."

The problem with all these negative analyses of post-Brexit Britain, and why they are already proving to be overly pessimistic, is that they presume we are just a passive observer. A nation to which things are done. The submissive in a BDSM relationship with Europe, the world, and reality.

They ignore the possibility - indeed likelihood - that post-Brexit Britain will DO STUFF to make the nation more attractive to investment, better for banks, extra-welcoming to smarter migrants, and so forth, to counteract the negatives of Brexit.

The gloomier Remainers also refuse the possibility that Britain will simply benefit as a country from governing itself: we won't have anyone else to blame any more.

Brexit will being major difficulties. But also major opportunities

Nevertheless, the point I made about markets is still valid. To compensate for no longer being inside the largest and deepest single internal market in the world we either have to be better than those that are still there or we have to be better than those that have always been outside it. Leaving the EU doesn't make it easier for us to improve beyond we could have done, and maybe should have done, anyway. At best leaving the EU is a jolt to our previous complacency. It doesn't bring any opportunities, as such. I do however believe in making the best of the situation we are in. We didn't do that before. But it does mean recognising there is a problem.

The US is the largest single market in the world. Please stop repeating the falsehood that it is the EU. The single market for services doesn't even really exist.

Come on Max, the EU is the largest trading bloc in the world (as measured by number of regulations).

I know this is a pointless discussion, but do you think the EU including the member states, has more regulations in total than the USA including both federal and States?

rcs1000 said:

FF43 said:

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

FF43 said:

SeanT said:

FPT for FF33


"It's about markets. If your market is Europe, which is almost synonymous with the EU, you are in the market you serve if you are based in the EU and not if you are based in the Brexited UK. If you don't need to be in the market to serve it, you can be anywhere - China, USA, Mexico. The UK loses out either way."

The problem with all these negative analyses of post-Brexit Britain, and why they are already proving to be overly pessimistic, is that they presume we are just a passive observer. A nation to which things are done. The submissive in a BDSM relationship with Europe, the world, and reality.

They ignore the possibility - indeed likelihood - that post-Brexit Britain will DO STUFF to make the nation more attractive to investment, better for banks, extra-welcoming to smarter migrants, and so forth, to counteract the negatives of Brexit.

The gloomier Remainers also refuse the possibility that Britain will simply benefit as a country from governing itself: we won't have anyone else to blame any more.

Brexit will being major difficulties. But also major opportunities

Nevertheless, the point I made about markets is still valid. To compensate for no longer being inside the largest and deepest single internal market in the world we either have to be better than those that are still there or we have to be better than those that have always been outside it. Leaving the EU doesn't make it easier for us to improve beyond we could have done, and maybe should have done, anyway. At best leaving the EU is a jolt to our previous complacency. It doesn't bring any opportunities, as such. I do however believe in making the best of the situation we are in. We didn't do that before. But it does mean recognising there is a problem.

The US is the largest single market in the world. Please stop repeating the falsehood that it is the EU. The single market for services doesn't even really exist.

Come on Max, the EU is the largest trading bloc in the world (as measured by number of regulations).

I know this is a pointless discussion, but do you think the EU including the member states, has more regulations in total than the USA including both federal and States?

Good question. Both, to be honest, are actually pretty easy places to do business (excluding Italy). Compared to Brazil, China, Japan, Mexico, Argentina or Russia, the vast bulk of EU states or the US are great places to work.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Royale, I imagine some journalists (Faisal Islam, perhaps) will be breathy with excitement at the declining fortune of the Government, in the same way the 0.1% rise in inflation was reported as the 'impact' of our voting to leave.

IanB2 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

logical_song said:

Sean_F said:

CarlottaVance said:

justin124 said:

I am not persuaded that Witney is so important for May. Callaghan succeeded Wilson in April 1976 , and a few months later Labour suffered disastrous by election results at Workington and Walsall North. Similarly the Tories lost Ribble Valley not long after Major became PM.Neither Callaghan nor Major were particularly undermined by those setbacks.

A little expectations framing going on by OGH?

Con hold with reduced majority = 'catastrophe'

Con loss - MAY MUST RESIGN!!!

Witney clearly has a huge personal vote for Cameron - it would be odd if the Con vote share didn't fall...

TBH, I'd expect a very big fall in the Conservative majority. The PM's personal vote will have gone, and we're now in mid-term, so people use by-elections as a chance to kick the government. I'd expect the Conservatives' vote share to be in the region of 40-45~%.

You really think that the Tory vote in Witney would drop 20%, so they would lose one third of Cameron's vote?
That sounds like a terrible defeat for them even if they hold on to the seat. At 40% they could actually lose it, with 60% available for their opponents to share.
I can't see them dropping that far, it seems like expectation management all right - on your part.

45% is what Cameron got first time. Of course the PM likely has a major personal vote that can be lost the swings in Witney under Cameron have far exceeded normal swings and that could revert to mean this time.

This 'mean' being in Blair's second election which Labour won by a landslide and when the previous MP had been Labour (having defected)??

Richard_Nabavi said:

MaxPB said:

It's also against a much smaller population rise, so the GDP per capita growth will be about the same over the measured period.

No it's not. They assumed the same immigration level in the different scenarios.

I'm not sure that I would be so dismissive of the compound-interest effects of a long period of slightly reduced growth on our national wealth as some seem to be, but that was the choice voters made.

logical_song said:

Sean_F said:

CarlottaVance said:

justin124 said:

I am not persuaded that Witney is so important for May. Callaghan succeeded Wilson in April 1976 , and a few months later Labour suffered disastrous by election results at Workington and Walsall North. Similarly the Tories lost Ribble Valley not long after Major became PM.Neither Callaghan nor Major were particularly undermined by those setbacks.

A little expectations framing going on by OGH?

Con hold with reduced majority = 'catastrophe'

Con loss - MAY MUST RESIGN!!!

Witney clearly has a huge personal vote for Cameron - it would be odd if the Con vote share didn't fall...

TBH, I'd expect a very big fall in the Conservative majority. The PM's personal vote will have gone, and we're now in mid-term, so people use by-elections as a chance to kick the government. I'd expect the Conservatives' vote share to be in the region of 40-45~%.

You really think that the Tory vote in Witney would drop 20%, so they would lose one third of Cameron's vote?
That sounds like a terrible defeat for them even if they hold on to the seat. At 40% they could actually lose it, with 60% available for their opponents to share.
I can't see them dropping that far, it seems like expectation management all right - on your part.

MarkSenior said:

FWIW , my initial forecast for Witney is something like Con 45 LD 28 Lab 12 UKIP 5 Green 5 All others 5 .

TheScreamingEagles said:

The ECB are bloody bell ends.

They force the counties to bid blind on test match staging rights, then wonder why they get into financial difficulties?

Durham have been relegated from Division One in the County Championship over financial issues, with Hampshire being reinstated.

The North East county have also lost the right to stage Test cricket at their Riverside ground.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/37541136

IanB2 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

IanB2 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

felix said:

Philip_Thompson said:

felix said:

Pulpstar said:

felix said:

I see the £ has resumed it's slide today as Brexit continues to have it's long, slow effect. Of course as Harold Wilson used to tell us ' the £ in your pocket won't be affected'. I'd forgotten just how loved he was as one of the Tories greatest ever Prime Ministers

Well my mortgage and day to day expenses are still in £ sterling, and I bought my new camera pre-brexit

Presumably you only buy full UK sourced products since Brexit.

CPI has gone up by 0.1% and is still TOO LOW. When it reaches 2% how about we have this conversation?

Lol - just love the way you all pretend that the nose-diving £ is the greatest thing since sliced bread when you know it just ain't true.

It isn't great but it isn't a disaster either. It simply is what it is.

What it is may well be $1.28 by the end of the day.

Couldn't care less if it was $0.64 so long as inflation remains low and the economy thrives.

Of course at 0.64 inflation wouldn't be low, but that's the point. The number is moot it is what it ffrvts that matters.

Nor would the economy be thriving. All you are really saying is that in itself it is just a number. But it is of course also an important indicator. Your temperature is just a number but if it is very high you are probably very ill.

Sean_F said:

logical_song said:

Sean_F said:

CarlottaVance said:

justin124 said:

I am not persuaded that Witney is so important for May. Callaghan succeeded Wilson in April 1976 , and a few months later Labour suffered disastrous by election results at Workington and Walsall North. Similarly the Tories lost Ribble Valley not long after Major became PM.Neither Callaghan nor Major were particularly undermined by those setbacks.

A little expectations framing going on by OGH?

Con hold with reduced majority = 'catastrophe'

Con loss - MAY MUST RESIGN!!!

Witney clearly has a huge personal vote for Cameron - it would be odd if the Con vote share didn't fall...

TBH, I'd expect a very big fall in the Conservative majority. The PM's personal vote will have gone, and we're now in mid-term, so people use by-elections as a chance to kick the government. I'd expect the Conservatives' vote share to be in the region of 40-45~%.

You really think that the Tory vote in Witney would drop 20%, so they would lose one third of Cameron's vote?
That sounds like a terrible defeat for them even if they hold on to the seat. At 40% they could actually lose it, with 60% available for their opponents to share.
I can't see them dropping that far, it seems like expectation management all right - on your part.

I've no reason to manage expectations. A fall of 15-20% in vote share for the governing party is nothing unusual.

SquareRoot said:

IanB2 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

felix said:

Philip_Thompson said:

felix said:

Pulpstar said:

felix said:

I see the £ has resumed it's slide today as Brexit continues to have it's long, slow effect. Of course as Harold Wilson used to tell us ' the £ in your pocket won't be affected'. I'd forgotten just how loved he was as one of the Tories greatest ever Prime Ministers

Well my mortgage and day to day expenses are still in £ sterling, and I bought my new camera pre-brexit

Presumably you only buy full UK sourced products since Brexit.

CPI has gone up by 0.1% and is still TOO LOW. When it reaches 2% how about we have this conversation?

Lol - just love the way you all pretend that the nose-diving £ is the greatest thing since sliced bread when you know it just ain't true.

It isn't great but it isn't a disaster either. It simply is what it is.

What it is may well be $1.28 by the end of the day.

Euro at 1.14 spot ... 1.06 at the expensive exchanges means my g and t is 30 pc more expensive than last time I was here. Brexit is a short term disaster and likely a long term one too.

IanB2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

FF43 said:

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

FF43 said:

SeanT said:

FPT for FF33


"It's about markets. If your market is Europe, which is almost synonymous with the EU, you are in the market you serve if you are based in the EU and not if you are based in the Brexited UK. If you don't need to be in the market to serve it, you can be anywhere - China, USA, Mexico. The UK loses out either way."

The problem with all these negative analyses of post-Brexit Britain, and why they are already proving to be overly pessimistic, is that they presume we are just a passive observer. A nation to which things are done. The submissive in a BDSM relationship with Europe, the world, and reality.

They ignore the possibility - indeed likelihood - that post-Brexit Britain will DO STUFF to make the nation more attractive to investment, better for banks, extra-welcoming to smarter migrants, and so forth, to counteract the negatives of Brexit.

The gloomier Remainers also refuse the possibility that Britain will simply benefit as a country from governing itself: we won't have anyone else to blame any more.

Brexit will being major difficulties. But also major opportunities

Nevertheless, such. I do however believe in making the best of the situation we are in. We didn't do that before. But it does mean recognising there is a problem.

The US is the largest single market in the world. Please stop repeating the falsehood that it is the EU. The single market for services doesn't even really exist.

Come on Max, the EU is the largest trading bloc in the world (as measured by number of regulations).

I know this is a pointless discussion, but do you think the EU including the member states, has more regulations in total than the USA including both federal and States?

It's much easier to get things done quickly in the EU than it is in the US. I guess it depends on what kind of business you are in, though. You won't get your stuff impounded by customs when you are sending goods to an EU member state from the UK.

And despite all the talk about tariffs, it will be the non-tariff barriers that will present the biggest potential obstacle to UK business, with much less challenge coming the other way.

logical_song said:

Sean_F said:

logical_song said:

Sean_F said:

CarlottaVance said:

justin124 said:

I am not persuaded that Witney is so important for May. Callaghan succeeded Wilson in April 1976 , and a few months later Labour suffered disastrous by election results at Workington and Walsall North. Similarly the Tories lost Ribble Valley not long after Major became PM.Neither Callaghan nor Major were particularly undermined by those setbacks.

A little expectations framing going on by OGH?

Con hold with reduced majority = 'catastrophe'

Con loss - MAY MUST RESIGN!!!

Witney clearly has a huge personal vote for Cameron - it would be odd if the Con vote share didn't fall...

TBH, I'd expect a very big fall in the Conservative majority. The PM's personal vote will have gone, and we're now in mid-term, so people use by-elections as a chance to kick the government. I'd expect the Conservatives' vote share to be in the region of 40-45~%.

You really think that the Tory vote in Witney would drop 20%, so they would lose one third of Cameron's vote?
That sounds like a terrible defeat for them even if they hold on to the seat. At 40% they could actually lose it, with 60% available for their opponents to share.
I can't see them dropping that far, it seems like expectation management all right - on your part.

I've no reason to manage expectations. A fall of 15-20% in vote share for the governing party is nothing unusual.

Percentages need to be clarified, 20% of the total vote equals 33.3% of the current Tory vote (from 60% to 40%). One in 3 Tory voters deserting them.

Philip_Thompson said:

IanB2 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

IanB2 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

felix said:

Philip_Thompson said:

felix said:

Pulpstar said:

felix said:

I see the £ has resumed it's slide today as Brexit continues to have it's long, slow effect. Of course as Harold Wilson used to tell us ' the £ in your pocket won't be affected'. I'd forgotten just how loved he was as one of the Tories greatest ever Prime Ministers

Well my mortgage and day to day expenses are still in £ sterling, and I bought my new camera pre-brexit

Presumably you only buy full UK sourced products since Brexit.

CPI has gone up by 0.1% and is still TOO LOW. When it reaches 2% how about we have this conversation?

Lol - just love the way you all pretend that the nose-diving £ is the greatest thing since sliced bread when you know it just ain't true.

It isn't great but it isn't a disaster either. It simply is what it is.

What it is may well be $1.28 by the end of the day.

Couldn't care less if it was $0.64 so long as inflation remains low and the economy thrives.

Of course at 0.64 inflation wouldn't be low, but that's the point. The number is moot it is what it ffrvts that matters.

Nor would the economy be thriving. All you are really saying is that in itself it is just a number. But it is of course also an important indicator. Your temperature is just a number but if it is very high you are probably very ill.

Yes it is just a number. If we start getting symptoms then I'd agree we may be ill, but we haven't got negative symptoms currently.

The exchange rate is more like the external temperature than your body temperature. Yes it's getting a bit colder than now than it was in June but if you put a jumper on there's no reason to assume you'll get sick. Plus now we can look forward to Christmas.

MaxPB said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

The curious thing about today's drop in sterling is that it was caused by something which everyone already knew. Markets do behave in strange ways sometimes.

Stronger figures from the US as well.

Morris_Dancer said:

Another inflation anecdote, but from around three years ago.

ITV News, top story is rising inflation. It's the highest it's been for 2-3 years. The newsreader confidently claims prices are rising 'like never before'.

No, innumerate one. They're rising like they were a couple of years ago.

On currency: I have vague memories of the pound buying $2. Somehow we survived the drop to $1.35 or so.

MaxPB said:

TonyE said:

IF done correctly, there is no need for there to be NTB issues - WTO Technical Barriers to Trade agreement reinforces standardisation from this point on

Yes, I think mutual recognition of each others goods standards will be quite uncontroversial because it will come from the WTO and other international standards bodies anyway.

megalomaniacs4u said:

Libdems trying hard in Chipping Norton part of the Witney constituency, had daily leaflets/flyers & other annoyances. Including today via post a fake news paper full of propaganda & dodgy graphs looking very like a local paper.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The ECB are bloody bell ends.

They force the counties to bid blind on test match staging rights, then wonder why they get into financial difficulties?

Durham have been relegated from Division One in the County Championship over financial issues, with Hampshire being reinstated.

The North East county have also lost the right to stage Test cricket at their Riverside ground.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/37541136

And give them the crap early season tests, which are guaranteed to make a large loss. And this the county that gave England Stokes.

And I'm still seriously pissed off with the ECB refusing to let Bairstow play in Yorkshire's championship decider.

A breakaway Northern cricket board could field a test team stronger than the England rump.

I cannot understand why Andrew Strauss, former Middlesex player, banned Yorkshire's Jonny Bairstow from playing in the Yorkshire v Middlesex title decider but let Middlesex's Steve Finn play.

It really is cruel of the ECB to give Durham an early season test, a few days after a test at Headingley.

At least Yorkshire is still a proper county, unlike Middlesex

SquareRoot said:

SouthamObserver said:

Thinking about the positives of Brexit the one that does stand out a million miles for me is the discomfit and upset it has caused the Eurocrat class. I have spent a lot of time in its entitled vicinity and have never warmed to it, to say the least. I do also think that the vote was a quintessentially English thing. We really don't like being told what to do - or to feel we are being told - by anyone, except royalty of course. I like the idea that this part of the English character is still as strong as it ever was. That's a very real and very important link back to our past. I also like the idea of a dark blue passport.

.
So you think pissing off few euro bureaucrats and a blue passport is worth a big increase in the cost of living?

Barnesian said:

FF43 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MTimT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MTimT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TGOHF said:

felix said:

I see the £ has resumed it's slide today as Brexit continues to have it's long, slow effect. Of course as Harold Wilson used to tell us ' the £ in your pocket won't be affected'. I'd forgotten just how loved he was as one of the Tories greatest ever Prime Ministers

I guess that explains why the metropolitan wealthy with second homes abroad are so furious that the peasants voted for Brexit.

Peasants is such an inaccurate term. I prefer the term 'thick uneducated plebs'

TSE morphing into Mr Meeks. Someone call a doctor before it's too late.

Well it is either that or Leavers are traitors.

Surprisingly, I don't agree that the choice is between those two descriptions.

If I get the time, I shall publish a thread comparing Leavers to The Confederates States, and I'm trying to work out who the British Lincoln is.

I kinda know who shall be Ulysses S Grant is though

The would-be "Abraham Lincoln" is Jean-Claude Juncker. Who is clearly no Lincoln and that is why the "Confederates" won this one. The Union victory in the US wasn't nailed on. They had to win while a stalemate would have been enough for the other side. It's possible without the real Lincoln the real Confederates would have prevailed.

Is this today's Lincoln?