politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The big trend: CON and LAB are still failing to win voters
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The big trend: CON and LAB are still failing to win voters from each other
One of the more remarkable features of the polling in the last parliament was the almost complete inability of both Labour and Conservatives to win voters from each other. Vote shares may have gone up and down but it was gains from and losses to the Lib Dems, UKIP, the Greens and SNP (and non-voters) that was responsible; the direct swing between the big two was negligible.
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First!0
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Second, like the Scottish Tories!0
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Third! Like Scottish Labour....RobD said:Second, like the Scottish Tories!
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FPT:
I see David Cameron's sofa is complaining about Mrs May's style of government in today's Times. She's doing something called 'Cabinet Government' and it is most put out......0 -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/30/tory-party-conference-what-theresa-may-must-do-to-lay-road-for-d/
Coulson 2p
It’s not only the right thing to do – the Conservatives would not be in government were it not for his work – it’s also the most effective way of calming the not insignificant number of Tory MPs already muttering into the Commons tea room china.
In short, when it comes to unity, the prime minister must now genuinely reach out to all parts of the Conservative family. This cannot be superficial, shop-front stuff – 'division is death’ must be the mantra.0 -
The Lord said "Go Forth", but I came fifth (excluding RobD's duplicated post).0
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Sorry, old boy. Can't have you winning every day now, can we?peter_from_putney said:The Lord said "Go Forth", but I came fifth (excluding RobD's duplicated post).
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"Over four days our new prime minister has an opportunity to lay the road for a potential decade of Conservative rule."PlatoSaid said:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/30/tory-party-conference-what-theresa-may-must-do-to-lay-road-for-d/
Coulson 2p
It’s not only the right thing to do – the Conservatives would not be in government were it not for his work – it’s also the most effective way of calming the not insignificant number of Tory MPs already muttering into the Commons tea room china.
In short, when it comes to unity, the prime minister must now genuinely reach out to all parts of the Conservative family. This cannot be superficial, shop-front stuff – 'division is death’ must be the mantra.
Smelling salts on standby.... 0 -
BTW and totally off topic, can it really be true that Big Fat Stan is set to receive around £1 million compesation from the F.A. after just two months work (if you can call overseeing one England game "work") and having supposedly resigned in disgrace .... words fail me!0
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I don't know what sort of contracts are drawn up these days, but in my day 'Gross Misconduct' was 'here's a bin-bag for your stuff (carefully checked) and the door is over there'.......peter_from_putney said:BTW and totally off topic, can it really be true that Big Fat Stan is set to receive around £1 million compesation from the F.A. after just two months work (if you can call overseeing one England game "work") and having supposedly resigned in disgrace .... words fail me!
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An excellent thread, and an intuitively highly plausible argument. In the world of two large parties, which have a hope of forming a government, and three or four smaller parties, identifying and targeting swing voters must be more complicated than in the good old days of Worcester Woman and Mondeo Man.
Perhaps there is another important consequence. In such a world, voters votting for smaller parties, who are essentially casting protest votes, are effectively disenfranchising themselves under FPTP.
For example, like Northern Ireland decades ago, Scotland has completely opted out of having any influence on a UK government, except in the relatively rare event of a hung Parliament, and even then it is far from clear what influence they would have, as Coalition negotiations are unpredictable and non-transparent, as the example of the Lib Dems in 2010-5 shows. Any change will come through the Scottish Parliament, or through action outside the political process, like bombs in the old days in Northern Ireland (God forbid we go back to that) or threatening another referendum in Scotland. (Of course, many Scots seemed to feel ignored anyway when they were dominated by Labour, as they were taken for granted by that party).
The same is evidently true, on a much smaller scale for the citizens of Clacton and Brighton.0 -
In their very different ways, Mike Smithson and David Herdson seem to be bigging things up for Tim's Two Taxi Party. I fear they have a mighty long way to travel before they are of any meaningful relevance whatsoever.0
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Niche geeky quiz - presidential pets
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/09/30/us/politics/00presidentialpetsquiz.html?smid=tw-nytpolitics&smtyp=cur&_r=00 -
Mr Green bang on message:
"We are building a country that works for everyone - not just the privileged few.
"A key part of that is making sure that all those who are able to work are given the support and the opportunity to do so. But it also means ensuring that we give full and proper support to those who can't.
"That includes sweeping away any unnecessary stress and bureaucracy - particularly for the most vulnerable in society".
If someone has a disease which can only get worse then it doesn't make sense to ask them to turn up for repeated appointments.
If their condition is not going to improve, it is not right to ask them to be tested time after time. So we will stop it.
http://www.itv.com/news/2016-10-01/reassessments-to-be-scrapped-for-chronically-ill-benefit-claimins/
Also seems eminently sensible reform.......0 -
More differentiation:
Theresa May has brought in Tony Blair's former policy chief to carry out a review of employment practices aimed at improving job security and rights for "ordinary working people".
Matthew Taylor, chief executive of the RSA, will look at whether regulations are keeping pace with the "radically" changing labour market in a shake-up that will "prioritise the interests of the growing army of people working in new ways".
The focus on protections for workers is in stark contrast to predecessor David Cameron, who oversaw reforms of employment law to ensure that they would no longer be seen as a "barrier to growth".
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/pa/article-3816704/Blairs-ex-policy-chief-lead-employment-practices-review.html#ixzz4Lo0EGcPS0 -
So what was the concern of all the lefties about May heading off into the bright right-wing blue yonder, with the exception of grammar schools she appears to be tacking in closer to a Blairite agenda than even Cameron was.0
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I think most people now feel 'they've suffered enough'. Had Lamb rather than Farron won the leadership the revival would definitely have started. Nevertheless, a good conference and a decent performance in Witney could generate significant momentum.peter_from_putney said:In their very different ways, Mike Smithson and David Herdson seem to be bigging things up for Tim's Two Taxi Party. I fear they have a mighty long way to travel before they are of any meaningful relevance whatsoever.
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There's a gap in the market. It won't be filled by the Lib Dems alone though because they're now irrelevant nationally. It won't be filled by a Labour breakaway either unless they work out what they want, as opposed to what they don't want.0
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Surely it was the right who saw Theresa May as a re-embodiment of Mrs Thatcher, based mainly on a scripted joke at PMQs and wishful thinking.Indigo said:So what was the concern of all the lefties about May heading off into the bright right-wing blue yonder, with the exception of grammar schools she appears to be tacking in closer to a Blairite agenda than even Cameron was.
If we take Mrs May on her own words, she wants to return to One Nation Toryism. If we judge her on her actions in six years as Home Secretary, she will do nothing of note and fail to control immigration.0 -
Off topic on the Telegraph investigation. After the Allardyce expose, it's all been a bit of a damp squib. My conclusion: English Football is a lot less corrupt than I thought it was.0
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To be fair, there is only so much you can do while being a member of the EU.DecrepitJohnL said:
Surely it was the right who saw Theresa May as a re-embodiment of Mrs Thatcher, based mainly on a scripted joke at PMQs and wishful thinking.Indigo said:So what was the concern of all the lefties about May heading off into the bright right-wing blue yonder, with the exception of grammar schools she appears to be tacking in closer to a Blairite agenda than even Cameron was.
If we take Mrs May on her own words, she wants to return to One Nation Toryism. If we judge her on her actions in six years as Home Secretary, she will do nothing of note and fail to control immigration.0 -
I suspect the later is more accurate, it's always better to judge people on what they do rather than what they say. I think she will prove to be another ineffectual managerialist, the type of which we have had rather too many of recently from all parties.DecrepitJohnL said:If we take Mrs May on her own words, she wants to return to One Nation Toryism. If we judge her on her actions in six years as Home Secretary, she will do nothing of note and fail to control immigration.
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You don't win a toaster either...peter_from_putney said:The Lord said "Go Forth", but I came fifth (excluding RobD's duplicated post).
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Meanwhile, the Conservatives look ready for further instability:
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-37517901
Steering a course between these diehards and Ken Clarke with a majority of 12 is going to be extremely testing.0 -
Then the gap won't be filled.AlastairMeeks said:There's a gap in the market. It won't be filled by the Lib Dems alone though because they're now irrelevant nationally. It won't be filled by a Labour breakaway either unless they work out what they want, as opposed to what they don't want.
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No surprise really that there should be few switchers. Few Conservatives would find Corbyn attractive and Corbyn's supporters have a distinctive world outlook.0
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Morning. Mrs May's attitude is most likely to be what prevails, but it is good that our European counterparts can see there's a growing number of people willing to be just as belligerent as some of the Eurocrats in the negotiations, to walk away to WTO terms.AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, the Conservatives look ready for further instability:
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-37517901
Steering a course between these diehards and Ken Clarke with a majority of 12 is going to be extremely testing.
This is a sharp contrast to Cameron's attitude, with his excellent Bloomberg speech about EU reform being followed by a damp squib renegotiation, as his opponents already knew his final position would be to remain.0 -
At last a recognition of what I’ve been saying for a while; the last election was a two parter. Cons vs LD in England & Wales and Lab vs SNP in Scotland. And now, in E&W, at any rate the swingback is happening.
Incidentally, I think suspect that Farron is being somewhat underrated by the metropolitan elite, perhaps, unkindly, because he’s a Northern lad who went to a Northern university, and because he’s a practising, and somewhat evangelical, Anglican.0 -
I think she will have to leave the EU. That's noteworthyDecrepitJohnL said:
Surely it was the right who saw Theresa May as a re-embodiment of Mrs Thatcher, based mainly on a scripted joke at PMQs and wishful thinking.Indigo said:So what was the concern of all the lefties about May heading off into the bright right-wing blue yonder, with the exception of grammar schools she appears to be tacking in closer to a Blairite agenda than even Cameron was.
If we take Mrs May on her own words, she wants to return to One Nation Toryism. If we judge her on her actions in six years as Home Secretary, she will do nothing of note and fail to control immigration.0 -
https://twitter.com/telepolitics/status/782100015850237952Sean_F said:Corbyn's supporters have a distinctive world outlook.
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It's a minefield. May is already executing the appropriate strategy, which is to stand still.AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, the Conservatives look ready for further instability:
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-37517901
Steering a course between these diehards and Ken Clarke with a majority of 12 is going to be extremely testing.0 -
How many die-in-a-ditch Euro-enthusiasts are there really on the Tory benches ? 2 ? 3 ? The vast majority of Tory MPs supporting remain are careerists and Cameron loyalists, who for the same reasons will become May Loyalists and moderate their positions rapidly.edmundintokyo said:
It's a minefield. May is already executing the appropriate strategy, which is to stand still.AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, the Conservatives look ready for further instability:
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-37517901
Steering a course between these diehards and Ken Clarke with a majority of 12 is going to be extremely testing.0 -
Maybe, but in order to get out of the minefield she will have to move.edmundintokyo said:
It's a minefield. May is already executing the appropriate strategy, which is to stand still.AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, the Conservatives look ready for further instability:
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-37517901
Steering a course between these diehards and Ken Clarke with a majority of 12 is going to be extremely testing.0 -
But gaps do tend to get filled, don't they?AlastairMeeks said:There's a gap in the market. It won't be filled by the Lib Dems alone though because they're now irrelevant nationally. It won't be filled by a Labour breakaway either unless they work out what they want, as opposed to what they don't want.
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It's the same names every time.edmundintokyo said:
It's a minefield. May is already executing the appropriate strategy, which is to stand still.AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, the Conservatives look ready for further instability:
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-37517901
Steering a course between these diehards and Ken Clarke with a majority of 12 is going to be extremely testing.
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National - Fox News
Clinton 49 .. Trump 44
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2016/09/30/full-fox-news-poll-results-30/
National - NOLA Tracker
Clinton 45 .. Trump 35
http://www.nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/09/clinton_lead_over_trump_widens.html#incart_river_home_pop
National - LA Times Tracker
Clinton 41.7 .. Trump 47.3
http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/0 -
Sandpit said:
Morning. Mrs May's attitude is most likely to be what prevails, but it is good that our European counterparts can see there's a growing number of people willing to be just as belligerent as some of the Eurocrats in the negotiations, to walk away to WTO terms.AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, the Conservatives look ready for further instability:
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-37517901
Steering a course between these diehards and Ken Clarke with a majority of 12 is going to be extremely testing.
This is a sharp contrast to Cameron's attitude, with his excellent Bloomberg speech about EU reform being followed by a damp squib renegotiation, as his opponents already knew his final position would be to remain.
While past performance is rarely a guide to future performance, May appears to be unable to do either presentation or delivery. Externally that will not matter while Corbyn and Farron are with us. Internally, I doubt it it will satisfy the very right.Sandpit said:
Morning. Mrs May's attitude is most likely to be what prevails, but it is good that our European counterparts can see there's a growing number of people willing to be just as belligerent as some of the Eurocrats in the negotiations, to walk away to WTO terms.AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, the Conservatives look ready for further instability:
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-37517901
Steering a course between these diehards and Ken Clarke with a majority of 12 is going to be extremely testing.
This is a sharp contrast to Cameron's attitude, with his excellent Bloomberg speech about EU reform being followed by a damp squib renegotiation, as his opponents already knew his final position would be to remain.0 -
With gross misconduct don't you still get a payment in lieu of notice (but nothing for loss of position)?CarlottaVance said:
I don't know what sort of contracts are drawn up these days, but in my day 'Gross Misconduct' was 'here's a bin-bag for your stuff (carefully checked) and the door is over there'.......peter_from_putney said:BTW and totally off topic, can it really be true that Big Fat Stan is set to receive around £1 million compesation from the F.A. after just two months work (if you can call overseeing one England game "work") and having supposedly resigned in disgrace .... words fail me!
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Morning all. Charming as Sarf Ken is on a Saturday morning before busy, it is bladdy freezing compared to Provence!0
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Josh Voorhees of "Slate" assess the post debate polling :
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/09/30/how_trump_and_clinton_are_faring_in_the_polls_this_week.html0 -
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2016/09/30/criticizing_donald_trump_will_get_you_ddosed_off_the_internet/JackW said:National - Fox News
Clinton 49 .. Trump 44
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2016/09/30/full-fox-news-poll-results-30/
National - NOLA Tracker
Clinton 45 .. Trump 35
http://www.nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/09/clinton_lead_over_trump_widens.html#incart_river_home_pop
National - LA Times Tracker
Clinton 41.7 .. Trump 47.3
http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/0 -
Interesting analysis and seems about right to me, David.
In this context I think the Tories should fear a Lib Dem revival below the Severn/Wash line. If Brexit takes the wrong direction, there are lots of opportunities for recapturing territory - the Sturgeon gambit won't wash again if the Tories look like they're leading us into Hard Brexit chaos.0 -
She completely failed with non EU immigration, which was entirely within our remit.RobD said:
To be fair, there is only so much you can do while being a member of the EU.DecrepitJohnL said:
Surely it was the right who saw Theresa May as a re-embodiment of Mrs Thatcher, based mainly on a scripted joke at PMQs and wishful thinking.Indigo said:So what was the concern of all the lefties about May heading off into the bright right-wing blue yonder, with the exception of grammar schools she appears to be tacking in closer to a Blairite agenda than even Cameron was.
If we take Mrs May on her own words, she wants to return to One Nation Toryism. If we judge her on her actions in six years as Home Secretary, she will do nothing of note and fail to control immigration.0 -
Guess who appeared in a soft core porn movie in 2000?
If you answered Donald Trump then you are the winner0 -
Isabel Hardman on May:
http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/10/just-managing-is-not-enough-in-no-10-prime-minister/0 -
If that's the case, sounds like Sam was on one year's notice!Charles said:
With gross misconduct don't you still get a payment in lieu of notice (but nothing for loss of position)?CarlottaVance said:
I don't know what sort of contracts are drawn up these days, but in my day 'Gross Misconduct' was 'here's a bin-bag for your stuff (carefully checked) and the door is over there'.......peter_from_putney said:BTW and totally off topic, can it really be true that Big Fat Stan is set to receive around £1 million compesation from the F.A. after just two months work (if you can call overseeing one England game "work") and having supposedly resigned in disgrace .... words fail me!
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You seem to know a lot about this...Charles said:
With gross misconduct don't you still get a payment in lieu of notice (but nothing for loss of position)?CarlottaVance said:
I don't know what sort of contracts are drawn up these days, but in my day 'Gross Misconduct' was 'here's a bin-bag for your stuff (carefully checked) and the door is over there'.......peter_from_putney said:BTW and totally off topic, can it really be true that Big Fat Stan is set to receive around £1 million compesation from the F.A. after just two months work (if you can call overseeing one England game "work") and having supposedly resigned in disgrace .... words fail me!
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Which of course also explains why she is doing the grammars. Pill and honey etc.Indigo said:So what was the concern of all the lefties about May heading off into the bright right-wing blue yonder, with the exception of grammar schools she appears to be tacking in closer to a Blairite agenda than even Cameron was.
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Good morning, everyone.
Perhaps the last time I'll post this, but just six hours left to vote here:
https://twitter.com/MorrisF1/status/7818450303360942080 -
She was completely ineffective in controlling non-EU migration (in 2015: 289 000 non EU migrants gross; 189 000 net as I recall, and only 13 000 deportations. No exit checks at UK air and sea ports).RobD said:
To be fair, there is only so much you can do while being a member of the EU.DecrepitJohnL said:
Surely it was the right who saw Theresa May as a re-embodiment of Mrs Thatcher, based mainly on a scripted joke at PMQs and wishful thinking.Indigo said:So what was the concern of all the lefties about May heading off into the bright right-wing blue yonder, with the exception of grammar schools she appears to be tacking in closer to a Blairite agenda than even Cameron was.
If we take Mrs May on her own words, she wants to return to One Nation Toryism. If we judge her on her actions in six years as Home Secretary, she will do nothing of note and fail to control immigration.
She had 6 years in which to do something to reduce this and completely failed. Either she is incompetent at her job or the forces of globalisation are to great for government to control. Humans are a migratory species.0 -
She was completely ineffective in controlling non-EU migration (in 2015: 289 000 non EU migrants gross; 189 000 net as I recall, and only 13 000 deportations. No exit checks at UK air and sea ports).RobD said:
To be fair, there is only so much you can do while being a member of the EU.DecrepitJohnL said:
Surely it was the right who saw Theresa May as a re-embodiment of Mrs Thatcher, based mainly on a scripted joke at PMQs and wishful thinking.Indigo said:So what was the concern of all the lefties about May heading off into the bright right-wing blue yonder, with the exception of grammar schools she appears to be tacking in closer to a Blairite agenda than even Cameron was.
If we take Mrs May on her own words, she wants to return to One Nation Toryism. If we judge her on her actions in six years as Home Secretary, she will do nothing of note and fail to control immigration.
She had 6 years in which to do something to reduce this and completely failed. Either she is incompetent at her job or the forces of globalisation are to great for government to control. Humans are a migratory species.0 -
His is in danger of becoming a wrongheaded meme like the '2010 LD switchers'.Monksfield said:Interesting analysis and seems about right to me, David.
In this context I think the Tories should fear a Lib Dem revival below the Severn/Wash line. If Brexit takes the wrong direction, there are lots of opportunities for recapturing territory - the Sturgeon gambit won't wash again if the Tories look like they're leading us into Hard Brexit chaos.
The reasons for voting LD, especially at local government level are, apparently, manifold, but those same reasons misunderstood and misapplied to national elections.0 -
I agree. He is a decent guy who is as he seems, and doesn't do for political games and spin. During an election campaign and an era where people value authenticity that will be to his advantage,OldKingCole said:At last a recognition of what I’ve been saying for a while; the last election was a two parter. Cons vs LD in England & Wales and Lab vs SNP in Scotland. And now, in E&W, at any rate the swingback is happening.
Incidentally, I think suspect that Farron is being somewhat underrated by the metropolitan elite, perhaps, unkindly, because he’s a Northern lad who went to a Northern university, and because he’s a practising, and somewhat evangelical, Anglican.0 -
I think the Lib Dems could come back rapidly in SW London and Colchester. I don't see any prospects for them in SW England, for the forseeable future. They'd have to win back votes from the Conservatives, UKIP, and Labour, which will be very hard. The Tories now have some huge majorities in that region, with a split opposition.Monksfield said:Interesting analysis and seems about right to me, David.
In this context I think the Tories should fear a Lib Dem revival below the Severn/Wash line. If Brexit takes the wrong direction, there are lots of opportunities for recapturing territory - the Sturgeon gambit won't wash again if the Tories look like they're leading us into Hard Brexit chaos.
The big issue though is Corbyn. While he's in place, middle of the road voters will stick with the Conservatives, in marginal seats.0 -
While this observation is true it is interesting how many Labour voters think May is the better PM. With Corbyn Labour are testing tribal loyalties to the limit and, as with have seen with US republicans, there are limits. I suspect that a Corbyn led GE campaign will see Labour fall below 30% even if those voters find the Tories a step too far.
It is interesting how successful Ruth Davidson is being in Scotland in picking up disillusioned Labour supporters. The Conservatives should watch and learn.0 -
F1: P3 done. Bit sleepy, but short rundown appears to be Hamilton's much quicker than Rosberg.
However, as of yesterday, rain was possible for both qualifying and race, so that could make things go wonky.0 -
The key to the sW is tactical voting - the non-Tory element of the local electorate simply needs to realise (remember) that in their part of the world it is LibDem or Tory. As the government becomes more unpopular and as Brexit fails to deliver apples for all, that isn't so unrealistic?Sean_F said:
I think the Lib Dems could come back rapidly in SW London and Colchester. I don't see any prospects for them in SW England, for the forseeable future. They'd have to win back votes from the Conservatives, UKIP, and Labour, which will be very hard. The Tories now have some huge majorities in that region, with a split opposition.Monksfield said:Interesting analysis and seems about right to me, David.
In this context I think the Tories should fear a Lib Dem revival below the Severn/Wash line. If Brexit takes the wrong direction, there are lots of opportunities for recapturing territory - the Sturgeon gambit won't wash again if the Tories look like they're leading us into Hard Brexit chaos.
The big issue though is Corbyn. While he's in place, middle of the road voters will stick with the Conservatives, in marginal seats.0 -
foxinsoxuk said:
She was completely ineffective in controlling non-EU migration (in 2015: 289 000 non EU migrants gross; 189 000 net as I recall, and only 13 000 deportations. No exit checks at UK air and sea ports).RobD said:
To be fair, there is only so much you can do while being a member of the EU.DecrepitJohnL said:
Surely it was the right who saw Theresa May as a re-embodiment of Mrs Thatcher, based mainly on a scripted joke at PMQs and wishful thinking.Indigo said:So what was the concern of all the lefties about May heading off into the bright right-wing blue yonder, with the exception of grammar schools she appears to be tacking in closer to a Blairite agenda than even Cameron was.
If we take Mrs May on her own words, she wants to return to One Nation Toryism. If we judge her on her actions in six years as Home Secretary, she will do nothing of note and fail to control immigration.
She had 6 years in which to do something to reduce this and completely failed. Either she is incompetent at her job or the forces of globalisation are to great for government to control. Humans are a migratory species.
Or, third possibility, all external factors were ignored by the Cameroon project. Fooled me for a good few years; was the last budget that turned me against Osbornite interference in too many areas of govt.foxinsoxuk said:
She was completely ineffective in controlling non-EU migration (in 2015: 289 000 non EU migrants gross; 189 000 net as I recall, and only 13 000 deportations. No exit checks at UK air and sea ports).RobD said:
To be fair, there is only so much you can do while being a member of the EU.DecrepitJohnL said:
Surely it was the right who saw Theresa May as a re-embodiment of Mrs Thatcher, based mainly on a scripted joke at PMQs and wishful thinking.Indigo said:So what was the concern of all the lefties about May heading off into the bright right-wing blue yonder, with the exception of grammar schools she appears to be tacking in closer to a Blairite agenda than even Cameron was.
If we take Mrs May on her own words, she wants to return to One Nation Toryism. If we judge her on her actions in six years as Home Secretary, she will do nothing of note and fail to control immigration.
She had 6 years in which to do something to reduce this and completely failed. Either she is incompetent at her job or the forces of globalisation are to great for government to control. Humans are a migratory species.0 -
The other issue that too many here are forgetting is that many voted LD in strongly Tory areas as a proxy for Blairite centrism. That option is no longer there, but not too dissimilar to one nation Toryism.Sean_F said:
I think the Lib Dems could come back rapidly in SW London and Colchester. I don't see any prospects for them in SW England, for the forseeable future. They'd have to win back votes from the Conservatives, UKIP, and Labour, which will be very hard. The Tories now have some huge majorities in that region, with a split opposition.Monksfield said:Interesting analysis and seems about right to me, David.
In this context I think the Tories should fear a Lib Dem revival below the Severn/Wash line. If Brexit takes the wrong direction, there are lots of opportunities for recapturing territory - the Sturgeon gambit won't wash again if the Tories look like they're leading us into Hard Brexit chaos.
The big issue though is Corbyn. While he's in place, middle of the road voters will stick with the Conservatives, in marginal seats.0 -
No need to leave the minefield. Pitch a tent, put the kettle on, she has plenty of milk.logical_song said:
Maybe, but in order to get out of the minefield she will have to move.edmundintokyo said:
It's a minefield. May is already executing the appropriate strategy, which is to stand still.AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, the Conservatives look ready for further instability:
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-37517901
Steering a course between these diehards and Ken Clarke with a majority of 12 is going to be extremely testing.0 -
Labour will be slaughtered during a general election campaign; they are so divided that there is bound to be some big name who will put the boot in (as there was during 1983), not to mention Corbyn's history being all over the press and any gaffes.DavidL said:While this observation is true it is interesting how many Labour voters think May is the better PM. With Corbyn Labour are testing tribal loyalties to the limit and, as with have seen with US republicans, there are limits. I suspect that a Corbyn led GE campaign will see Labour fall below 30% even if those voters find the Tories a step too far.
It is interesting how successful Ruth Davidson is being in Scotland in picking up disillusioned Labour supporters. The Conservatives should watch and learn.
Picking up David's analysis from the header, there will be a lot of non-Tories unwilling to back Corbyn. In a GE it is unrealistic to suggest that all of them will stay at home. Thus there is the hopeful scenario for the LibDems, and a counter-argument to the suggestion that Farron is too left wing for the opportunity, which in the short term is on the centre-left, not the right.0 -
Or we misunderstood tactical voting - few non political types are strongly non- anything: tactical voting is a proxy for centrism. Mayism stays close to the centre because there be electoral gold there.IanB2 said:
The key to the sW is tactical voting - the non-Tory element of the local electorate simply needs to realise (remember) that in their part of the world it is LibDem or Tory. As the government becomes more unpopular and as Brexit fails to deliver apples for all, that isn't so unrealistic?Sean_F said:
I think the Lib Dems could come back rapidly in SW London and Colchester. I don't see any prospects for them in SW England, for the forseeable future. They'd have to win back votes from the Conservatives, UKIP, and Labour, which will be very hard. The Tories now have some huge majorities in that region, with a split opposition.Monksfield said:Interesting analysis and seems about right to me, David.
In this context I think the Tories should fear a Lib Dem revival below the Severn/Wash line. If Brexit takes the wrong direction, there are lots of opportunities for recapturing territory - the Sturgeon gambit won't wash again if the Tories look like they're leading us into Hard Brexit chaos.
The big issue though is Corbyn. While he's in place, middle of the road voters will stick with the Conservatives, in marginal seats.0 -
Dont think she will be inviting Beecroft around any time soon.CarlottaVance said:More differentiation:
Theresa May has brought in Tony Blair's former policy chief to carry out a review of employment practices aimed at improving job security and rights for "ordinary working people".
Matthew Taylor, chief executive of the RSA, will look at whether regulations are keeping pace with the "radically" changing labour market in a shake-up that will "prioritise the interests of the growing army of people working in new ways".
The focus on protections for workers is in stark contrast to predecessor David Cameron, who oversaw reforms of employment law to ensure that they would no longer be seen as a "barrier to growth".
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/pa/article-3816704/Blairs-ex-policy-chief-lead-employment-practices-review.html#ixzz4Lo0EGcPS
When she was talking about the nasty party all those years ago she was talking about Osborne type flat tax, cut welfare for the terminally ill beecroftism.
Dave and Gideon foolishly thought that if they were outwarly nice to monirities who suffered from isms and phobias that the Guardian et al obsess over, no one would notice if they abolished welfare and employment rights.
No wonder she booted out Osborne so humiliatingly. Rarely are just desserts served up so brutally.0 -
Having spent a lifetime canvassing for the LibDems, I struggle to see anything in my experience that would paint tactical voting in the way you describe. Are you an armchair analyst or is your suggestion based on your own experience? IME voters have a clearer picture of what they don't want than of what they do. Indeed, further, in the far off days of two-party politics, it was very common indeed that if you asked either a Tory supporter or a Labour Party supporter why they supported their party, within seconds they would be listing the negatives of the other party, which they would never vote for.Mortimer said:
Or we misunderstood tactical voting - few non political types are strongly non- anything: tactical voting is a proxy for centrism. Mayism stays close to the centre because there be electoral gold there.IanB2 said:
The key to the sW is tactical voting - the non-Tory element of the local electorate simply needs to realise (remember) that in their part of the world it is LibDem or Tory. As the government becomes more unpopular and as Brexit fails to deliver apples for all, that isn't so unrealistic?Sean_F said:
I think the Lib Dems could come back rapidly in SW London and Colchester. I don't see any prospects for them in SW England, for the forseeable future. They'd have to win back votes from the Conservatives, UKIP, and Labour, which will be very hard. The Tories now have some huge majorities in that region, with a split opposition.Monksfield said:Interesting analysis and seems about right to me, David.
In this context I think the Tories should fear a Lib Dem revival below the Severn/Wash line. If Brexit takes the wrong direction, there are lots of opportunities for recapturing territory - the Sturgeon gambit won't wash again if the Tories look like they're leading us into Hard Brexit chaos.
The big issue though is Corbyn. While he's in place, middle of the road voters will stick with the Conservatives, in marginal seats.
0 -
Shades of Lysyistrata in reverse.
https://twitter.com/hrtbps/status/782100258977374208
Cries of 'win, win!' throughout middle America.
0 -
I think that is very possible with Tactical Voting, and Farron has the advantage here of being the most prominent anti-coalition LD.IanB2 said:
The key to the sW is tactical voting - the non-Tory element of the local electorate simply needs to realise (remember) that in their part of the world it is LibDem or Tory. As the government becomes more unpopular and as Brexit fails to deliver apples for all, that isn't so unrealistic?Sean_F said:
I think the Lib Dems could come back rapidly in SW London and Colchester. I don't see any prospects for them in SW England, for the forseeable future. They'd have to win back votes from the Conservatives, UKIP, and Labour, which will be very hard. The Tories now have some huge majorities in that region, with a split opposition.Monksfield said:Interesting analysis and seems about right to me, David.
In this context I think the Tories should fear a Lib Dem revival below the Severn/Wash line. If Brexit takes the wrong direction, there are lots of opportunities for recapturing territory - the Sturgeon gambit won't wash again if the Tories look like they're leading us into Hard Brexit chaos.
The big issue though is Corbyn. While he's in place, middle of the road voters will stick with the Conservatives, in marginal seats.
One thing that is implied in DH's excellent header is that the fates of Labour and LD are linked. When the vote of one goes up so does the vote of the other. In part this is tactical voting and in part it is that when people get sick of the Nasty party, they turn to whichever more suits their objections. For the last three decades the LDs have only won seats at GE in the same years that Labour has too. This does not bode well for us LDs in 2020.0 -
That worked when the non-Tory element was Labour or Lib Dem. They could persuade Labour voters in, say North Cornwall or Torbay to vote Lib Dem to keep out the Tories. But, now much of the non-Tory vote is UKIP. The Tories can play the same game, telling UKIP voters to vote tactically to keep out the party that wants to reverse Brexit.IanB2 said:
The key to the sW is tactical voting - the non-Tory element of the local electorate simply needs to realise (remember) that in their part of the world it is LibDem or Tory. As the government becomes more unpopular and as Brexit fails to deliver apples for all, that isn't so unrealistic?Sean_F said:
I think the Lib Dems could come back rapidly in SW London and Colchester. I don't see any prospects for them in SW England, for the forseeable future. They'd have to win back votes from the Conservatives, UKIP, and Labour, which will be very hard. The Tories now have some huge majorities in that region, with a split opposition.Monksfield said:Interesting analysis and seems about right to me, David.
In this context I think the Tories should fear a Lib Dem revival below the Severn/Wash line. If Brexit takes the wrong direction, there are lots of opportunities for recapturing territory - the Sturgeon gambit won't wash again if the Tories look like they're leading us into Hard Brexit chaos.
The big issue though is Corbyn. While he's in place, middle of the road voters will stick with the Conservatives, in marginal seats.
That said, one other seat which the Lib Dems should target is Bath.0 -
It also applies to Miliband - but when Labour got 30% in the general election, arguably they are pretty close to the tribal vote (i.e. not Conservative) anyway.Sean_F said:No surprise really that there should be few switchers. Few Conservatives would find Corbyn attractive and Corbyn's supporters have a distinctive world outlook.
I don't think this analysis suggests increased polarisation in society - just that Labour is at bedrock. (How deep they can drill down into the bedrock is the interesting question)0 -
As said before, compensation is to attract the next guy, not the one who is leaving.peter_from_putney said:BTW and totally off topic, can it really be true that Big Fat Stan is set to receive around £1 million compesation from the F.A. after just two months work (if you can call overseeing one England game "work") and having supposedly resigned in disgrace .... words fail me!
Fwiw I do not think Sam should ever have been appointed but the Telegraph exposed greed, not corruption. Sam went along expecting and wanting six figure speaking engagements, which he did say he'd need to clear with the FA, and though he talked about skirting round the third-party ownership laws, he was quick to correct the guy who crossed the line.
Today's revelation that Harry Redknapp once managed a side who'd bet on itself winning a game is also pretty lame.
There are worse rumours about both men but it looks like the Telegraph has no real evidence against either, though it may have caught a couple of minnows -- quick, without googling, name the assistant manager of Barnsley (and even he denies it).
Let's wait and see what else the Telegraph has, including the names of the eight premier league managers allegedly at it, but so far they've damaged the national side for less than an MP's duck house.0 -
15 years canvassing in a LD Tory marginal.IanB2 said:
Having spent a lifetime canvassing for the LibDems, I struggle to see anything in my experience that would paint tactical voting in the way you describe. Are you an armchair analyst or is your suggestion based on your own experience?Mortimer said:
Or we misunderstood tactical voting - few non political types are strongly non- anything: tactical voting is a proxy for centrism. Mayism stays close to the centre because there be electoral gold there.IanB2 said:
The key to the sW is tactical voting - the non-Tory element of the local electorate simply needs to realise (remember) that in their part of the world it is LibDem or Tory. As the government becomes more unpopular and as Brexit fails to deliver apples for all, that isn't so unrealistic?Sean_F said:
I think the Lib Dems could come back rapidly in SW London and Colchester. I don't see any prospects for them in SW England, for the forseeable future. They'd have to win back votes from the Conservatives, UKIP, and Labour, which will be very hard. The Tories now have some huge majorities in that region, with a split opposition.Monksfield said:Interesting analysis and seems about right to me, David.
In this context I think the Tories should fear a Lib Dem revival below the Severn/Wash line. If Brexit takes the wrong direction, there are lots of opportunities for recapturing territory - the Sturgeon gambit won't wash again if the Tories look like they're leading us into Hard Brexit chaos.
The big issue though is Corbyn. While he's in place, middle of the road voters will stick with the Conservatives, in marginal seats.
2005 - didn't want Howard
2010 - split between fear of change (voted LD) and desire for change (voted Tory)
2015 - happy with status quo and real fears expressed of Sturgeon and Miliband
If that isn't mere centrism, I don't know what is. It was a strong maj in 05, smallest LD maj
Over Tory in 2010 and now has a romping 10k Tory maj.0 -
Sigh. How many times does it have to be said.AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, the Conservatives look ready for further instability:
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-37517901
Steering a course between these diehards and Ken Clarke with a majority of 12 is going to be extremely testing.
Real majority is 40 for any issue that matters.
If you think the likes of Ian Paisley, Douglas Carswell and Nigel Dodds are going to come to the progressive lefts rescue you are deluding yourself.
0 -
Read your own post: didnt want Howard. Fear of change. Didn't want Sturgeon and Miliband. All essentially negative reasons for a political preference, not centrism (whatever that might be) at all.Mortimer said:
15 years canvassing in a LD Tory marginal.IanB2 said:
Having spent a lifetime canvassing for the LibDems, I struggle to see anything in my experience that would paint tactical voting in the way you describe. Are you an armchair analyst or is your suggestion based on your own experience?Mortimer said:
Or we misunderstood tactical voting - few non political types are strongly non- anything: tactical voting is a proxy for centrism. Mayism stays close to the centre because there be electoral gold there.IanB2 said:
The key to the sW is tactical voting - the non-Tory element of the local electorate simply needs to realise (remember) that in their part of the world it is LibDem or Tory. As the government becomes more unpopular and as Brexit fails to deliver apples for all, that isn't so unrealistic?Sean_F said:
I think the Lib Dems could come back rapidly in SW London and Colchester. I don't see any prospects for them in SW England, for the forseeable future. They'd have to win back votes from the Conservatives, UKIP, and Labour, which will be very hard. The Tories now have some huge majorities in that region, with a split opposition.Monksfield said:Interesting analysis and seems about right to me, David.
In this context I think the Tories should fear a Lib Dem revival below the Severn/Wash line. If Brexit takes the wrong direction, there are lots of opportunities for recapturing territory - the Sturgeon gambit won't wash again if the Tories look like they're leading us into Hard Brexit chaos.
The big issue though is Corbyn. While he's in place, middle of the road voters will stick with the Conservatives, in marginal seats.
2005 - didn't want Howard
2010 - split between fear of change (voted LD) and desire for change (voted Tory)
2015 - happy with status quo and real fears expressed of Sturgeon and Miliband
If that isn't mere centrism, I don't know what is. It was a strong maj in 05, smallest LD maj
Over Tory in 2010 and now has a romping 10k Tory maj.0 -
Whoops, make that 11 years!0
-
That may be so, but remember it only applies if the Tories are actually delivering one nation policies. Saying they are whilst doing the opposite will rapidly be seen through by the electorate.Mortimer said:
The other issue that too many here are forgetting is that many voted LD in strongly Tory areas as a proxy for Blairite centrism. That option is no longer there, but not too dissimilar to one nation Toryism.Sean_F said:
I think the Lib Dems could come back rapidly in SW London and Colchester. I don't see any prospects for them in SW England, for the forseeable future. They'd have to win back votes from the Conservatives, UKIP, and Labour, which will be very hard. The Tories now have some huge majorities in that region, with a split opposition.Monksfield said:Interesting analysis and seems about right to me, David.
In this context I think the Tories should fear a Lib Dem revival below the Severn/Wash line. If Brexit takes the wrong direction, there are lots of opportunities for recapturing territory - the Sturgeon gambit won't wash again if the Tories look like they're leading us into Hard Brexit chaos.
The big issue though is Corbyn. While he's in place, middle of the road voters will stick with the Conservatives, in marginal seats.
One nation includes the 48%
Yesterdays comments about how those in their 30s are being screwed over relative to those in their 40s and above are highly relevant. Will the Tories do anything about it?0 -
Very possibleCarlottaVance said:
If that's the case, sounds like Sam was on one year's notice!Charles said:
With gross misconduct don't you still get a payment in lieu of notice (but nothing for loss of position)?CarlottaVance said:
I don't know what sort of contracts are drawn up these days, but in my day 'Gross Misconduct' was 'here's a bin-bag for your stuff (carefully checked) and the door is over there'.......peter_from_putney said:BTW and totally off topic, can it really be true that Big Fat Stan is set to receive around £1 million compesation from the F.A. after just two months work (if you can call overseeing one England game "work") and having supposedly resigned in disgrace .... words fail me!
0 -
So basically the opinion polls are all over the place and no one has the faintest idea what will happen.JackW said:National - Fox News
Clinton 49 .. Trump 44
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2016/09/30/full-fox-news-poll-results-30/
National - NOLA Tracker
Clinton 45 .. Trump 35
http://www.nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/09/clinton_lead_over_trump_widens.html#incart_river_home_pop
National - LA Times Tracker
Clinton 41.7 .. Trump 47.3
http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/
Hardly surprising as voting patterns will cut across usual demographic voting trends which makes baselining as easy as it was on the Brexit referendum.
Where is the early declaring equivalent of Sunderland I wonder.
It may be that, as with Brexit, the best value betting will be after the first results have been declared.0 -
If there is a flaw in David's header it is the apparently lazy assumption that UKIP voters are closest to the Tories, or are mainly ex-Tories. I thought we had moved on from that.Sean_F said:
That worked when the non-Tory element was Labour or Lib Dem. They could persuade Labour voters in, say North Cornwall or Torbay to vote Lib Dem to keep out the Tories. But, now much of the non-Tory vote is UKIP. The Tories can play the same game, telling UKIP voters to vote tactically to keep out the party that wants to reverse Brexit.IanB2 said:
The key to the sW is tactical voting - the non-Tory element of the local electorate simply needs to realise (remember) that in their part of the world it is LibDem or Tory. As the government becomes more unpopular and as Brexit fails to deliver apples for all, that isn't so unrealistic?Sean_F said:
I think the Lib Dems could come back rapidly in SW London and Colchester. I don't see any prospects for them in SW England, for the forseeable future. They'd have to win back votes from the Conservatives, UKIP, and Labour, which will be very hard. The Tories now have some huge majorities in that region, with a split opposition.Monksfield said:Interesting analysis and seems about right to me, David.
In this context I think the Tories should fear a Lib Dem revival below the Severn/Wash line. If Brexit takes the wrong direction, there are lots of opportunities for recapturing territory - the Sturgeon gambit won't wash again if the Tories look like they're leading us into Hard Brexit chaos.
The big issue though is Corbyn. While he's in place, middle of the road voters will stick with the Conservatives, in marginal seats.
That said, one other seat which the Lib Dems should target is Bath.0 -
I don't know anything about Colchester, and agree re South West London and SW England!Sean_F said:
I think the Lib Dems could come back rapidly in SW London and Colchester. I don't see any prospects for them in SW England, for the forseeable future. They'd have to win back votes from the Conservatives, UKIP, and Labour, which will be very hard. The Tories now have some huge majorities in that region, with a split opposition.Monksfield said:Interesting analysis and seems about right to me, David.
In this context I think the Tories should fear a Lib Dem revival below the Severn/Wash line. If Brexit takes the wrong direction, there are lots of opportunities for recapturing territory - the Sturgeon gambit won't wash again if the Tories look like they're leading us into Hard Brexit chaos.
The big issue though is Corbyn. While he's in place, middle of the road voters will stick with the Conservatives, in marginal seats.
My only caveat is that if UKIP remains strong in Cornwall/Devon, perhaps because Mrs May negotiates something less than full Brexit, then the Eurosceptic vote is split. In that scenario, the LibDems might sneak through the middle in a seat or two. (Especially if West country Labour voters are unenamoured with Mr Corbyn.)0 -
Not really, with the exception of the La Times tracker the national polls are all saying Clinton leads.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
So basically the opinion polls are all over the place and no one has the faintest idea what will happen.JackW said:National - Fox News
Clinton 49 .. Trump 44
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2016/09/30/full-fox-news-poll-results-30/
National - NOLA Tracker
Clinton 45 .. Trump 35
http://www.nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/09/clinton_lead_over_trump_widens.html#incart_river_home_pop
National - LA Times Tracker
Clinton 41.7 .. Trump 47.3
http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/0 -
"What that suggests is that the big boys, but especially Labour, need the also-rans to be performing fairly strongly. Without those parties being attractive enough to their rival’s supporters, the negative campaigning of old will be far less effective as voters might be disillusioned but find no real alternative home."
This is interesting. I had thought that the apparent net movement in the polls represented an (admittedly modest) additional transfer of moderate Labour voters directly to the Conservatives in response to Corbyn, but perhaps I was mistaken?
If so, then the fact that we have seen a lot of large Tory leads in the polls, and yet Ukip and especially the Lib Dems seem generally to be polling around their GE levels of support, suggests a good deal of churn. Might it be possible that - in the national polls at least - voters are flowing away from the Lib Dems and Ukip toward the Tories, and to the Lib Dems and Ukip from Labour, in roughly equal numbers?
I know that the Lib Dems are doing well in all these little by-elections, but I remain to be convinced that a big national revival is on the cards. It's one thing making a protest vote; it's an altogether different matter when you're confronted with the choice of who's going to run the country.
Southern voters deserted the Lib Dems in their millions to keep Ed Miliband locked out of No.10. Are all the Yellow Tories going to want to go back again when the party is led by a social democrat whom they fear (with full justification) would be willing to use his votes in the Commons to put the Far Left into power, both out of revenge and in the mistaken belief that his influence would significantly moderate their policies? Huge tax and spending rises and an open borders immigration policy would swiftly follow.
Regardless, it's very hard to see how Labour wins, or the Tories lose, an election under current circumstances. If the flow of voters between the big two is as constricted as David Herdson believes it to be then Labour is already stuffed, for reputable analysis from the Fabians and others suggests that most of the votes Labour needs to get anywhere close to power again must be captured directly from the Tories. The Lib Dems are currently an unattractive place for centre-right votes to go, for reasons given above, there is no sign of this happening in the national VI polls, and they would need to start attracting very large swings away from the Tories to win back more than a small handful of seats. Ukip still appears to have a relatively low ceiling of support, and if it were to disappear then the likelihood has to be that its vote would fragment between Lab, Con and stay-at-home, giving no real advantage to anybody.
It's hard to see Labour doing as well as EdM did last time, or the Tories doing significantly worse than they did under Cameron. Now, but especially under revised boundaries in 2020, the next election is very much May's to lose.0 -
The Barnsley Assistant Manager is Tommy Wright.DecrepitJohnL said:
As said before, compensation is to attract the next guy, not the one who is leaving.peter_from_putney said:BTW and totally off topic, can it really be true that Big Fat Stan is set to receive around £1 million compesation from the F.A. after just two months work (if you can call overseeing one England game "work") and having supposedly resigned in disgrace .... words fail me!
Fwiw I do not think Sam should ever have been appointed but the Telegraph exposed greed, not corruption. Sam went along expecting and wanting six figure speaking engagements, which he did say he'd need to clear with the FA, and though he talked about skirting round the third-party ownership laws, he was quick to correct the guy who crossed the line.
Today's revelation that Harry Redknapp once managed a side who'd bet on itself winning a game is also pretty lame.
There are worse rumours about both men but it looks like the Telegraph has no real evidence against either, though it may have caught a couple of minnows -- quick, without googling, name the assistant manager of Barnsley (and even he denies it).
Let's wait and see what else the Telegraph has, including the names of the eight premier league managers allegedly at it, but so far they've damaged the national side for less than an MP's duck house.
He was a fans favourite on the wing for Leicester City, still fondly remembered.0 -
If you think the likes of Ian Paisley, Douglas Carswell and Nigel Dodds are going to come to the progressive lefts rescue you are deluding yourself.
Never mind them. Can Corbyn really rely on Gisella and Kate Hoey?0 -
Errr: your description of 2005 sounds very much like tactical voting to me.Mortimer said:
15 years canvassing in a LD Tory marginal.IanB2 said:
Having spent a lifetime canvassing for the LibDems, I struggle to see anything in my experience that would paint tactical voting in the way you describe. Are you an armchair analyst or is your suggestion based on your own experience?Mortimer said:
Or we misunderstood tactical voting - few non political types are strongly non- anything: tactical voting is a proxy for centrism. Mayism stays close to the centre because there be electoral gold there.IanB2 said:
The key to the sW is tactical voting - the non-Tory element of the local electorate simply needs to realise (remember) that in their part of the world it is LibDem or Tory. As the government becomes more unpopular and as Brexit fails to deliver apples for all, that isn't so unrealistic?Sean_F said:
I think the Lib Dems could come back rapidly in SW London and Colchester. I don't see any prospects for them in SW England, for the forseeable future. They'd have to win back votes from the Conservatives, UKIP, and Labour, which will be very hard. The Tories now have some huge majorities in that region, with a split opposition.Monksfield said:Interesting analysis and seems about right to me, David.
In this context I think the Tories should fear a Lib Dem revival below the Severn/Wash line. If Brexit takes the wrong direction, there are lots of opportunities for recapturing territory - the Sturgeon gambit won't wash again if the Tories look like they're leading us into Hard Brexit chaos.
The big issue though is Corbyn. While he's in place, middle of the road voters will stick with the Conservatives, in marginal seats.
2005 - didn't want Howard
2010 - split between fear of change (voted LD) and desire for change (voted Tory)
2015 - happy with status quo and real fears expressed of Sturgeon and Miliband
If that isn't mere centrism, I don't know what is. It was a strong maj in 05, smallest LD maj
Over Tory in 2010 and now has a romping 10k Tory maj.0 -
Quite.taffys said:If you think the likes of Ian Paisley, Douglas Carswell and Nigel Dodds are going to come to the progressive lefts rescue you are deluding yourself.
Never mind them. Can Corbyn really rely on Gisella and Kate Hoey?
And Frank.0 -
On issues like the EU or immigration, they are closest to the Tories. They also have a very low opinion of Corbyn.IanB2 said:
If there is a flaw in David's header it is the apparently lazy assumption that UKIP voters are closest to the Tories, or are mainly ex-Tories. I thought we had moved on from that.Sean_F said:
That worked when the non-Tory element was Labour or Lib Dem. They could persuade Labour voters in, say North Cornwall or Torbay to vote Lib Dem to keep out the Tories. But, now much of the non-Tory vote is UKIP. The Tories can play the same game, telling UKIP voters to vote tactically to keep out the party that wants to reverse Brexit.IanB2 said:
The key to the sW is tactical voting - the non-Tory element of the local electorate simply needs to realise (remember) that in their part of the world it is LibDem or Tory. As the government becomes more unpopular and as Brexit fails to deliver apples for all, that isn't so unrealistic?Sean_F said:
I think the Lib Dems could come back rapidly in SW London and Colchester. I don't see any prospects for them in SW England, for the forseeable future. They'd have to win back votes from the Conservatives, UKIP, and Labour, which will be very hard. The Tories now have some huge majorities in that region, with a split opposition.Monksfield said:Interesting analysis and seems about right to me, David.
In this context I think the Tories should fear a Lib Dem revival below the Severn/Wash line. If Brexit takes the wrong direction, there are lots of opportunities for recapturing territory - the Sturgeon gambit won't wash again if the Tories look like they're leading us into Hard Brexit chaos.
The big issue though is Corbyn. While he's in place, middle of the road voters will stick with the Conservatives, in marginal seats.
That said, one other seat which the Lib Dems should target is Bath.
A Lib Dem MP with a large personal vote could overcome that, but there aren't any MP's left in the South West, and the new Conservative MP's have the chance to build up a personal vote.0 -
Historically, going way back (pretty much to WWII) the liberals have always done better when the Tories are unpopular, either when they are in power and unpopular, or completely down and out as they were under Hague and IDS. Hence 1974 was hopeful and 1979 disappointing. When Labour is unpopular a proportion of their voters are prepared to back a one nation Tory (although to be fair the pattern is as much to do with FPTP and where the votes are, than individual preferences).foxinsoxuk said:
I think that is very possible with Tactical Voting, and Farron has the advantage here of being the most prominent anti-coalition LD.IanB2 said:
The key to the sW is tactical voting - the non-Tory element of the local electorate simply needs to realise (remember) that in their part of the world it is LibDem or Tory. As the government becomes more unpopular and as Brexit fails to deliver apples for all, that isn't so unrealistic?Sean_F said:
I think the Lib Dems could come back rapidly in SW London and Colchester. I don't see any prospects for them in SW England, for the forseeable future. They'd have to win back votes from the Conservatives, UKIP, and Labour, which will be very hard. The Tories now have some huge majorities in that region, with a split opposition.Monksfield said:Interesting analysis and seems about right to me, David.
In this context I think the Tories should fear a Lib Dem revival below the Severn/Wash line. If Brexit takes the wrong direction, there are lots of opportunities for recapturing territory - the Sturgeon gambit won't wash again if the Tories look like they're leading us into Hard Brexit chaos.
The big issue though is Corbyn. While he's in place, middle of the road voters will stick with the Conservatives, in marginal seats.
One thing that is implied in DH's excellent header is that the fates of Labour and LD are linked. When the vote of one goes up so does the vote of the other. In part this is tactical voting and in part it is that when people get sick of the Nasty party, they turn to whichever more suits their objections. For the last three decades the LDs have only won seats at GE in the same years that Labour has too. This does not bode well for us LDs in 2020.
Which supports your point, and is actually a reason why the key issue for Conervative prospects is that extent to which May can maintain her one nation positioning against her activists (and some of her own instincts) and with Brexit going on in the background.0 -
Well the source of the "eight managers" allegation has now challenged the truth of this, so I doubt this will see the light of day.foxinsoxuk said:
The Barnsley Assistant Manager is Tommy Wright.DecrepitJohnL said:
As said before, compensation is to attract the next guy, not the one who is leaving.peter_from_putney said:BTW and totally off topic, can it really be true that Big Fat Stan is set to receive around £1 million compesation from the F.A. after just two months work (if you can call overseeing one England game "work") and having supposedly resigned in disgrace .... words fail me!
Fwiw I do not think Sam should ever have been appointed but the Telegraph exposed greed, not corruption. Sam went along expecting and wanting six figure speaking engagements, which he did say he'd need to clear with the FA, and though he talked about skirting round the third-party ownership laws, he was quick to correct the guy who crossed the line.
Today's revelation that Harry Redknapp once managed a side who'd bet on itself winning a game is also pretty lame.
There are worse rumours about both men but it looks like the Telegraph has no real evidence against either, though it may have caught a couple of minnows -- quick, without googling, name the assistant manager of Barnsley (and even he denies it).
Let's wait and see what else the Telegraph has, including the names of the eight premier league managers allegedly at it, but so far they've damaged the national side for less than an MP's duck house.
He was a fans favourite on the wing for Leicester City, still fondly remembered.0 -
My nationalism is better than your nationalism:
http://www.thenational.scot/comment/gordon-macintyre-kemp-independence-can-save-us-from-british-nationalism.229950 -
Gravis and UPI have the candidates tied, but overall, Clinton is about 4% ahead.Alistair said:
Not really, with the exception of the La Times tracker the national polls are all saying Clinton leads.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
So basically the opinion polls are all over the place and no one has the faintest idea what will happen.JackW said:National - Fox News
Clinton 49 .. Trump 44
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2016/09/30/full-fox-news-poll-results-30/
National - NOLA Tracker
Clinton 45 .. Trump 35
http://www.nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/09/clinton_lead_over_trump_widens.html#incart_river_home_pop
National - LA Times Tracker
Clinton 41.7 .. Trump 47.3
http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/0 -
In policy terms they are undoubtedly closest to the Tories as a political organisation. But that doesn't mean that, as to a great extent a protest vote, their supporters are all Tory swing voters.Sean_F said:
On issues like the EU or immigration, they are closest to the Tories. They also have a very low opinion of Corbyn.IanB2 said:
If there is a flaw in David's header it is the apparently lazy assumption that UKIP voters are closest to the Tories, or are mainly ex-Tories. I thought we had moved on from that.Sean_F said:
That worked when the non-Tory element was Labour or Lib Dem. They could persuade Labour voters in, say North Cornwall or Torbay to vote Lib Dem to keep out the Tories. But, now much of the non-Tory vote is UKIP. The Tories can play the same game, telling UKIP voters to vote tactically to keep out the party that wants to reverse Brexit.IanB2 said:
The key to the sW is tactical voting - the non-Tory element of the local electorate simply needs to realise (remember) that in their part of the world it is LibDem or Tory. As the government becomes more unpopular and as Brexit fails to deliver apples for all, that isn't so unrealistic?Sean_F said:
I think the Lib Dems could come back rapidly in SW London and Colchester. I don't see any prospects for them in SW England, for the forseeable future. They'd have to win back votes from the Conservatives, UKIP, and Labour, which will be very hard. The Tories now have some huge majorities in that region, with a split opposition.Monksfield said:Interesting analysis and seems about right to me, David.
In this context I think the Tories should fear a Lib Dem revival below the Severn/Wash line. If Brexit takes the wrong direction, there are lots of opportunities for recapturing territory - the Sturgeon gambit won't wash again if the Tories look like they're leading us into Hard Brexit chaos.
The big issue though is Corbyn. While he's in place, middle of the road voters will stick with the Conservatives, in marginal seats.
That said, one other seat which the Lib Dems should target is Bath.
A Lib Dem MP with a large personal vote could overcome that, but there aren't any MP's left in the South West, and the new Conservative MP's have the chance to build up a personal vote.0 -
Not really. Pretty much all the polls have swung towards Clinton this week. The LA times tracker has some odd demographics (33% of Hispanics supporting Trump. Perhaps oversampling unemployed Mexican wall builders!). Even the LA times sample predicts the result as a Clinton win by 49-46.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
So basically the opinion polls are all over the place and no one has the faintest idea what will happen.JackW said:National - Fox News
Clinton 49 .. Trump 44
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2016/09/30/full-fox-news-poll-results-30/
National - NOLA Tracker
Clinton 45 .. Trump 35
http://www.nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/09/clinton_lead_over_trump_widens.html#incart_river_home_pop
National - LA Times Tracker
Clinton 41.7 .. Trump 47.3
http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/
Hardly surprising as voting patterns will cut across usual demographic voting trends which makes baselining as easy as it was on the Brexit referendum.
Where is the early declaring equivalent of Sunderland I wonder.
It may be that, as with Brexit, the best value betting will be after the first results have been declared.
I think in 2012 Indiana was the US Sunderland. It is pretty safe for the Republicans, but a win by only 3-4% would be the pivot point in my rough estimate. If Trump wins by less then that then pile on Clinton, with the best value probably to be found on the states markets.
DYOR! as always.0 -
Tricky one that - also suggests centrism doesn't it. Could be a mix of the two I suppose...rcs1000 said:
Errr: your description of 2005 sounds very much like tactical voting to me.Mortimer said:
15 years canvassing in a LD Tory marginal.IanB2 said:
Having spent a lifetime canvassing for the LibDems, I struggle to see anything in my experience that would paint tactical voting in the way you describe. Are you an armchair analyst or is your suggestion based on your own experience?Mortimer said:
Or we misunderstood tactical voting - few non political types are strongly non- anything: tactical voting is a proxy for centrism. Mayism stays close to the centre because there be electoral gold there.IanB2 said:
The key to the sW is tactical voting - the non-Tory element of the local electorate simply needs to realise (remember) that in their part of the world it is LibDem or Tory. As the government becomes more unpopular and as Brexit fails to deliver apples for all, that isn't so unrealistic?Sean_F said:
I think the Lib Dems could come back rapidly in SW London and Colchester. I don't see any prospects for them in SW England, for the forseeable future. They'd have to win back votes from the Conservatives, UKIP, and Labour, which will be very hard. The Tories now have some huge majorities in that region, with a split opposition.Monksfield said:Interesting analysis and seems about right to me, David.
In this context I think the Tories should fear a Lib Dem revival below the Severn/Wash line. If Brexit takes the wrong direction, there are lots of opportunities for recapturing territory - the Sturgeon gambit won't wash again if the Tories look like they're leading us into Hard Brexit chaos.
The big issue though is Corbyn. While he's in place, middle of the road voters will stick with the Conservatives, in marginal seats.
2005 - didn't want Howard
2010 - split between fear of change (voted LD) and desire for change (voted Tory)
2015 - happy with status quo and real fears expressed of Sturgeon and Miliband
If that isn't mere centrism, I don't know what is. It was a strong maj in 05, smallest LD maj
Over Tory in 2010 and now has a romping 10k Tory maj.
0 -
That's my experience too.IanB2 said:
Having spent a lifetime canvassing for the LibDems, I struggle to see anything in my experience that would paint tactical voting in the way you describe. Are you an armchair analyst or is your suggestion based on your own experience? IME voters have a clearer picture of what they don't want than of what they do. Indeed, further, in the far off days of two-party politics, it was very common indeed that if you asked either a Tory supporter or a Labour Party supporter why they supported their party, within seconds they would be listing the negatives of the other party, which they would never vote for.Mortimer said:
Or we misunderstood tactical voting - few non political types are strongly non- anything: tactical voting is a proxy for centrism. Mayism stays close to the centre because there be electoral gold there.IanB2 said:
The key to the sW is tactical voting - the non-Tory element of the local electorate simply needs to realise (remember) that in their part of the world it is LibDem or Tory. As the government becomes more unpopular and as Brexit fails to deliver apples for all, that isn't so unrealistic?Sean_F said:
I think the Lib Dems could come back rapidly in SW London and Colchester. I don't see any prospects for them in SW England, for the forseeable future. They'd have to win back votes from the Conservatives, UKIP, and Labour, which will be very hard. The Tories now have some huge majorities in that region, with a split opposition.Monksfield said:Interesting analysis and seems about right to me, David.
In this context I think the Tories should fear a Lib Dem revival below the Severn/Wash line. If Brexit takes the wrong direction, there are lots of opportunities for recapturing territory - the Sturgeon gambit won't wash again if the Tories look like they're leading us into Hard Brexit chaos.
The big issue though is Corbyn. While he's in place, middle of the road voters will stick with the Conservatives, in marginal seats.
It's far easier to get someone fired up against something than for something.
Imagine trying to get someone fired up for the EU, or for expertise and experience.0 -
To go-to point in your post is that fear of Labour drives many voters to the Tories. I think you are right that Corybn may in that sense represent a significant inhibitor to people voting LibDem (which may in part explain their national poll rating being stuck so low). So the question becomes, will this be any different if it is obvious before the campaign begins that Corbyn cannot win?Black_Rook said:
If so, then the fact that we have seen a lot of large Tory leads in the polls, and yet Ukip and especially the Lib Dems seem generally to be polling around their GE levels of support, suggests a good deal of churn. Might it be possible that - in the national polls at least - voters are flowing away from the Lib Dems and Ukip toward the Tories, and to the Lib Dems and Ukip from Labour, in roughly equal numbers?
I know that the Lib Dems are doing well in all these little by-elections, but I remain to be convinced that a big national revival is on the cards. It's one thing making a protest vote; it's an altogether different matter when you're confronted with the choice of who's going to run the country.
Southern voters deserted the Lib Dems in their millions to keep Ed Miliband locked out of No.10. Are all the Yellow Tories going to want to go back again when the party is led by a social democrat whom they fear (with full justification) would be willing to use his votes in the Commons to put the Far Left into power, both out of revenge and in the mistaken belief that his influence would significantly moderate their policies? Huge tax and spending rises and an open borders immigration policy would swiftly follow.
Regardless, it's very hard to see how Labour wins, or the Tories lose, an election under current circumstances. If the flow of voters between the big two is as constricted as David Herdson believes it to be then Labour is already stuffed, for reputable analysis from the Fabians and others suggests that most of the votes Labour needs to get anywhere close to power again must be captured directly from the Tories. The Lib Dems are currently an unattractive place for centre-right votes to go, for reasons given above, there is no sign of this happening in the national VI polls, and they would need to start attracting very large swings away from the Tories to win back more than a small handful of seats. Ukip still appears to have a relatively low ceiling of support, and if it were to disappear then the likelihood has to be that its vote would fragment between Lab, Con and stay-at-home, giving no real advantage to anybody.
It's hard to see Labour doing as well as EdM did last time, or the Tories doing significantly worse than they did under Cameron. Now, but especially under revised boundaries in 2020, the next election is very much May's to lose.
Arguably Dave's big advantage in 2015 rested solely upon the (false) assumption that Miliband might win (or at least come close)0 -
It's a fascinating contest.Sean_F said:
Gravis and UPI have the candidates tied, but overall, Clinton is about 4% ahead.Alistair said:
Not really, with the exception of the La Times tracker the national polls are all saying Clinton leads.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
So basically thehe opinion polls are all over the place and no one has the faintest idea what will happen.JackW said:National - Fox News
Clinton 49 .. Trump 44
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2016/09/30/full-fox-news-poll-results-30/
National - NOLA Tracker
Clinton 45 .. Trump 35
http://www.nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/09/clinton_lead_over_trump_widens.html#incart_river_home_pop
National - LA Times Tracker
Clinton 41.7 .. Trump 47.3
http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/
I struggle with Trump; I understand the (rightful) well of anger he's tapped in to. But find him an even more flawed personality than Clinton: what he says about women and young girls makes my skin crawl, and his views on whether a Judge of Hispanic origin could be impartial seem more 1950s that 2016. There seems no shortage of evidence that he lies as much as "crooked Hillary", and his claims in the Republican debate about a casino development in Florida flatly contradict those he gave under oath. (It seems richly ironic, then, that he's chosen to make the contest about honesty.)
If a forced choice, I would go for Hillary. But, really, I'd rather Kasich or Bush or almost any other Republican were on the ticket.0 -
Football transfers have always been dodgy. As a fan I am really not that bothered, as long as my team wins. Football economics are not in the real world.alex. said:
Well the source of the "eight managers" allegation has now challenged the truth of this, so I doubt this will see the light of day.foxinsoxuk said:
The Barnsley Assistant Manager is Tommy Wright.DecrepitJohnL said:
As said before, compensation is to attract the next guy, not the one who is leaving.peter_from_putney said:BTW and totally off topic, can it really be true that Big Fat Stan is set to receive around £1 million compesation from the F.A. after just two months work (if you can call overseeing one England game "work") and having supposedly resigned in disgrace .... words fail me!
Fwiw I do not think Sam should ever have been appointed but the Telegraph exposed greed, not corruption. Sam went along expecting and wanting six figure speaking engagements, which he did say he'd need to clear with the FA, and though he talked about skirting round the third-party ownership laws, he was quick to correct the guy who crossed the line.
Today's revelation that Harry Redknapp once managed a side who'd bet on itself winning a game is also pretty lame.
There are worse rumours about both men but it looks like the Telegraph has no real evidence against either, though it may have caught a couple of minnows -- quick, without googling, name the assistant manager of Barnsley (and even he denies it).
Let's wait and see what else the Telegraph has, including the names of the eight premier league managers allegedly at it, but so far they've damaged the national side for less than an MP's duck house.
He was a fans favourite on the wing for Leicester City, still fondly remembered.0 -
I suspect it all goes back to hating the tribe over the hill who keep taking all our food.Barnesian said:
That's my experience too.IanB2 said:
Having spent a lifetime canvassing for the LibDems, I struggle to see anything in my experience that would paint tactical voting in the way you describe. Are you an armchair analyst or is your suggestion based on your own experience? IME voters have a clearer picture of what they don't want than of what they do. Indeed, further, in the far off days of two-party politics, it was very common indeed that if you asked either a Tory supporter or a Labour Party supporter why they supported their party, within seconds they would be listing the negatives of the other party, which they would never vote for.Mortimer said:
Or we misunderstood tactical voting - few non political types are strongly non- anything: tactical voting is a proxy for centrism. Mayism stays close to the centre because there be electoral gold there.IanB2 said:
The key to the sW is tactical voting - the non-Tory element of the local electorate simply needs to realise (remember) that in their part of the world it is LibDem or Tory. As the government becomes more unpopular and as Brexit fails to deliver apples for all, that isn't so unrealistic?Sean_F said:
I think the Lib Dems could come back rapidly in SW London and Colchester. I don't see any prospects for them in SW England, for the forseeable future. They'd have to win back votes from the Conservatives, UKIP, and Labour, which will be very hard. The Tories now have some huge majorities in that region, with a split opposition.Monksfield said:Interesting analysis and seems about right to me, David.
In this context I think the Tories should fear a Lib Dem revival below the Severn/Wash line. If Brexit takes the wrong direction, there are lots of opportunities for recapturing territory - the Sturgeon gambit won't wash again if the Tories look like they're leading us into Hard Brexit chaos.
The big issue though is Corbyn. While he's in place, middle of the road voters will stick with the Conservatives, in marginal seats.
It's far easier to get someone fired up against something than for something.
Imagine trying to get someone fired up for the EU, or for expertise and experience.
0 -
In any case, I fail to see how a party which has 328 seats out of the 640 members eligible to vote has a majority of 12.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Sigh. How many times does it have to be said.AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, the Conservatives look ready for further instability:
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-37517901
Steering a course between these diehards and Ken Clarke with a majority of 12 is going to be extremely testing.
Real majority is 40 for any issue that matters.
If you think the likes of Ian Paisley, Douglas Carswell and Nigel Dodds are going to come to the progressive lefts rescue you are deluding yourself.0
