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  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    edited September 2016
    Deleted because although fair, it's the hangover speaking.
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784

    Trump wins DC nailed on.
    Its so bad even Trump isn't using it to show he is winning.

    Though he seems too busy tweeting out attacks on his new nemesis, the 'Disgusting' former Ms America. He sent 3 attack tweet at 6.am ( there time) so I actually think what she said is keeping him up at night.

  • George Parker on May:

    https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/house/79430/george-parker-ideology-enthusiasts-not

    I have a not-very-scientific theory about political parties: the more members they have, the less likely they are to win a general election.

    The Conservatives, whose membership has been in long-term decline, are reckoned to have about 150,000 members; Labour, by contrast, is now estimated to have around 550,000 members – some of them very committed indeed.

    Which party is better placed to win the next election? Jeremy Corbyn believes that his creation of a mass political movement is a sign that Labour is on the march, but I suspect the reality (reflected in opinion polls) may be precisely the opposite.

    People who join political parties are not very representative of the population; indeed the fervour of Mr Corbyn’s newfound supporters may actually be off-putting to many voters who view politics and ideology with a mixture of disdain and suspicion.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited September 2016
    On the question of a possible by-election in Richmond on Thames if Heathrow gets the go-ahead, some people seem to be assuming that this would mean the the Conservative candidate would be someone other than Zac. But I don't believe that that assumption is valid. As I understand it, he has pledged to trigger a by-election if Heathrow gets the go-ahead, which is a perfectly honourable position to take given that he was elected on a strong anti-expansion platform and it is a massive issue locally. But he hasn't (as far as I know) ruled out standing again. My expectation is that he would offer his resignation, seek to be chosen again by the local party, and if successful stand again as the Conservative candidate (still opposing the expansion). That would fulfil his pledge, and would again be a perfectly honourable course of action - effectively asking the party and Richmond voters to reaffirm their support for his stance in the light of the changed circumstances. Further, in such a scenario I'd expect him to win again easily.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited September 2016

    I'm very good at spotting Tory duffers ahead of most Tories.

    I kept on pointing out IDS was crap when the rest of my party elected him as leader.

    Eventually they saw the light.
    IDS did his job, which was to stop Ken Clarke conniving with Blair to have us join the Euro.

    Yes he was a duffer, but he led to Howard who led to Cameron. He also took defeat graciously, spending a decade on his social policy programme which was mostly delivered in government.
  • On the question of a possible by-election in Richmond on Thames if Heathrow gets the go-ahead, some people seem to be assuming that this would mean the the Conservative candidate would be someone other than Zac. But I don't believe that that assumption is valid. As I understand it, he has pledged to trigger a by-election if Heathrow gets the go-ahead, which is a perfectly honourable position to take given that he was elected on a strong anti-expansion platform and it is a massive issue locally. But he hasn't (as far as I know) ruled out standing again. My expectation is that he would offer his resignation, seek to be chosen again by the local party, and if successful stand again as the Conservative candidate (still opposing the expansion). That would fulfil his pledge, and would again be a perfectly honourable course of action - effectively asking the party and Richmond voters to reaffirm their support for his stance in the light of the changed circumstances. Further, in such a scenario I'd expect him to win again easily.

    Agreed.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited September 2016

    I'm very good at spotting Tory duffers ahead of most Tories.

    I kept on pointing out IDS was crap when the rest of my party elected him as leader.

    Eventually they saw the light.
    But weren't you also singing George Osborne's praises for years ?

    *innocent face*
  • 619 said:

    Its so bad even Trump isn't using it to show he is winning.

    Though he seems too busy tweeting out attacks on his new nemesis, the 'Disgusting' former Ms America. He sent 3 attack tweet at 6.am ( there time) so I actually think what she said is keeping him up at night.

    Alicia's in safe hands with the Clintons,
    https://www.google.it/search?client=safari&hl=en-it&ei=gkHuV8_bM8PjUaqyv6AL&q=alicia+machado+bill+clinton&oq=alicia+machad+bill+clinton&gs_l=mobile-gws-serp.1.0.30i10k1.11902.16480.0.19050.7.6.1.0.0.0.140.609.4j2.6.0....0...1c.1.64.mobile-gws-serp..0.3.246.Am-A6y_MgWc#imgrc=KGoQFXfviv7EbM:
  • Danny565 said:

    But weren't you also singing George Osborne's praises for years ?

    *innocent face*
    George's magnificent stewardship of the economy coupled with Dave's leadership were the primary reasons the Tories won a majority last year.

    George's day will come again.
  • Sandpit said:

    IDS did his job, which was to stop Ken Clarke conniving with Blair to have us join the Euro.

    Yes he was a duffer, but he led to Howard who led to Cameron. He also took defeat graciously, spending a decade on his social policy programme which was mostly delivered in government.
    Is this the same IDS who has left an unholy mess at DWP for Green to clear up, most notably the fiasco that is known as Universal Credit? It'll take years to get DWP properly functioning again imho.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited September 2016
    Danny565 said:

    But weren't you also singing George Osborne's praises for years ?

    *innocent face*
    and TSE also thought well of Andrew Cooper's polling. Yep not so good at spotting Tory duffers methinks.
    :open_mouth:
  • Sandpit said:

    IDS did his job, which was to stop Ken Clarke conniving with Blair to have us join the Euro.

    Yes he was a duffer, but he led to Howard who led to Cameron. He also took defeat graciously, spending a decade on his social policy programme which was mostly delivered in government.
    IDS's job in 2001 was stopping Clarke andPortillo, which he did. Once the MPs and members had used him for that primary, negative, purpose, his role was more-or-less done pending an acceptable heir apparent becoming available.
  • and TSE also thought well of Andrew Cooper's polling.
    :PMSL:
    Ah yes, you're the halfwit that launched a diatribe against ComRes cause you thought Lord Cooper worked for ComRes.

    A period of silence from you on Lord Cooper would be welcome lest you get Mike into trouble.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884

    That YouGov really has cheered me up.

    The country agrees with that David Davis and Liam Fox are crap
    We were talking about Peter Mandelson the other day and his thoughts on the Customs Union etc. I have a radical suggestion for Theresa May. Sack the Three Brexiteers and put Mr Mandelson in charge of the negotiations

    Because (completely unlike them):

    1. He is a wily old fox.
    2. He knows the subject
    3. He understands what makes Europe tick and can strategise around that.

    I think he would be up for it. It's a well paid job, which he likes. And because despite everything I think he is a patriot and he would want to get the best deal for his country.

    It wouldn't be a Governments of All the Talents, but rather a Government with at least a little bit of talent.
  • More terrible news for Remoaners. Services grew by 0.4% in July and Q2 growth revised UPWARDS to 0.7%. ONS
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784

    Agreed.
    Complete waste of time and money. I assumed he would resign the Tory whip and run as an independent ( Which considering how badly his Mayoral campaign went, may be best for him as well). His constituents know how he feels about the Heathrow expansion, nothing has changed.
  • On the question of a possible by-election in Richmond on Thames if Heathrow gets the go-ahead, some people seem to be assuming that this would mean the the Conservative candidate would be someone other than Zac. But I don't believe that that assumption is valid. As I understand it, he has pledged to trigger a by-election if Heathrow gets the go-ahead, which is a perfectly honourable position to take given that he was elected on a strong anti-expansion platform and it is a massive issue locally. But he hasn't (as far as I know) ruled out standing again. My expectation is that he would offer his resignation, seek to be chosen again by the local party, and if successful stand again as the Conservative candidate (still opposing the expansion). That would fulfil his pledge, and would again be a perfectly honourable course of action - effectively asking the party and Richmond voters to reaffirm their support for his stance in the light of the changed circumstances. Further, in such a scenario I'd expect him to win again easily.

    Didn't Richmond vote heavily Remain? That could spell trouble for Zac, a Leaver, up against a Lib Dem.
  • Actually, by a very wide margin, the country 'doesn't know' - 57% for Davis, 62% for Fox.

    Conservatives on the other hand, rate them both positively.....(+12 and +15 respectively)
    It's Labour voters who are most hostile......
    Is there something you want to tell us?
    Why is TSE spinning so hard and badly for REMAIN? Is Paris in September not a dream? Did he get short changed by a waiter and refused by every sane french lady?
  • More terrible news for Remoaners. Services grew by 0.4% in July and Q2 growth revised UPWARDS to 0.7%. ONS

    Yep, its bloody awful news for us refuseniks. Clearly leaving the EU has been a triumph.
  • Didn't Richmond vote heavily Remain? That could spell trouble for Zac, a Leaver, up against a Lib Dem.

    It's only here on PB that anyone thinks that which side an MP was on in the referendum matters for other elections.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,507
    timmo said:

    On another topic I have been watching these Lib Dem byelection results over the last few weeks and they are quite remarkable.
    Swings of over 20% seem the normwhich was SNP magnitude.
    They are creating the perfect storm for the Tories in areas that voted remain tapping into that cohort and as usual getting their own vote out.
    Last nights victory in Stow is beyond comprehension..if that is repeated across the board in Witney then the Tories have a fight on their hands.
    Richmond Park goes back Lib Dem if Goldsmith resigns on present trends.

    The Conservatives have a lead of 23,000 in Richmond Park. Never extrapolate a decent run of results in local by-elections to elections at Parliamentary level.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,735

    So far she's negotiated Brexit means Brexit
    Give that we've been variously informed that there will be no negotiation until we've invoked A50, and no negotiation until after the French and German elections, that's hardly surprising.

    At the moment, the European line (as per Renzi's recent interview) seems to be that we've made a terrible mistake, and must be seen to be made to pay for it - more in sorrow than in anger, of course. And that the best way to hold the EU together is full steam ahead.

    That position could conceivably change over the next six months or so, as Sarkozy's recent proposal for a new EU treaty hints - and if, for instance, Merkel becomes impaled on the horns of the Deutsche Bank dilemma.

    Cyclefree is quite right, May ought to be thinking about vision, now - and instructing the Brexit triplets to STFU and get their departments in shape for conducting practical negotiations when the time finally comes.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,184
    FF43 said:

    We were talking about Peter Mandelson the other day and his thoughts on the Customs Union etc. I have a radical suggestion for Theresa May. Sack the Three Brexiteers and put Mr Mandelson in charge of the negotiations

    Because (completely unlike them):

    1. He is a wily old fox.
    2. He knows the subject
    3. He understands what makes Europe tick and can strategise around that.

    I think he would be up for it. It's a well paid job, which he likes. And because despite everything I think he is a patriot and he would want to get the best deal for his country.

    It wouldn't be a Governments of All the Talents, but rather a Government with at least a little bit of talent.
    Fox and Davis or Mandelson and Osborne as your negotiating team. It's a tough one....

    Not going to happen unfortunately.
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    New poll of Florida:

    Clinton 46
    Trump 42
    Johnson 7

    via @MarcACaputo

    https://t.co/GjEpMSLXTu
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,674
    edited September 2016
    FF43 said:

    We were talking about Peter Mandelson the other day and his thoughts on the Customs Union etc. I have a radical suggestion for Theresa May. Sack the Three Brexiteers and put Mr Mandelson in charge of the negotiations

    Because (completely unlike them):

    1. He is a wily old fox.
    2. He knows the subject
    3. He understands what makes Europe tick and can strategise around that.

    I think he would be up for it. It's a well paid job, which he likes. And because despite everything I think he is a patriot and he would want to get the best deal for his country.

    It wouldn't be a Governments of All the Talents, but rather a Government with at least a little bit of talent.
    I nearly wrote a thread along those lines a few weeks ago.

    It was if Brexit (or if Brexit negotiations) leads to an economic disaster, we'd have a government of national unity, I was thinking of Mandy for PM or possibly Chancellor, or Trade Secretary
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    DavidL said:

    Fox and Davis or Mandelson and Osborne as your negotiating team. It's a tough one....

    Not going to happen unfortunately.
    A pair of idiots vs a pair of knaves ?

    Ah yes I see what you mean :)
  • Nigelb said:


    That position could conceivably change over the next six months or so, as Sarkozy's recent proposal for a new EU treaty hints

    That's local politics, it's not an actual thing.
  • On the question of a possible by-election in Richmond on Thames if Heathrow gets the go-ahead, some people seem to be assuming that this would mean the the Conservative candidate would be someone other than Zac. But I don't believe that that assumption is valid. As I understand it, he has pledged to trigger a by-election if Heathrow gets the go-ahead, which is a perfectly honourable position to take given that he was elected on a strong anti-expansion platform and it is a massive issue locally. But he hasn't (as far as I know) ruled out standing again. My expectation is that he would offer his resignation, seek to be chosen again by the local party, and if successful stand again as the Conservative candidate (still opposing the expansion). That would fulfil his pledge, and would again be a perfectly honourable course of action - effectively asking the party and Richmond voters to reaffirm their support for his stance in the light of the changed circumstances. Further, in such a scenario I'd expect him to win again easily.

    Yes, I think that works.

    I wonder if some other (brave) MPs might change their calculations about Heathrow, or at least be more muted about their opposition to it, post Brexit.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,507
    Indigo said:

    Most of the 48% are AB voters, the "I'm alright Jacques" set, which would be a good pool to fish in for say Clegg, but Farron is too leftie for that audience, for whom the majority will be more concerned about the stability of their assets and their mortgages than BrExit, Farron is going to smell too "magic money tree" to them, especially if nothing has dramatically spooked the economic horses by the time of the election. The number of obsessive remainers that will vote on that to the excusion of all else wont be enough to make a difference.
    The Lib Dems biggest problem is that they attracted voters from all over the political spectrum, who had a grudge against whichever of Conservatives or Labour were in power locally, and persuaded them to vote tactically against either the Conservatives or Labour. Once they went into government, all those voters vanished. Left wing Lib Dems started voting Labour, Green, or SNP; right wing Lib Dems went over to the Conservatives; Eurosceptic Lib Dems went over to UKIP. Trying to re-establish that coalition will take decades, and if they move left (as they are at present) they ensure they won't be getting back that section of their support that went over to the Tories.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    SkyNews
    #Rosetta probe to crash into comet #67P at 12.20. Watch the end of the @esa's ambitious mission live. #CometLanding https://t.co/eLiUGXnPr5?
  • FF43 said:

    I have a radical suggestion for Theresa May. Sack the Three Brexiteers and put Mr Mandelson in charge of the negotiations

    One small problem with that...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,735

    That's local politics, it's not an actual thing.
    The Front National is an actual thing, as are its analogues in several other EU countries. Sarkozy's plan is partly a reaction to that.
    'Local politics' is going to determine with whom we will be talking next year, which is why detailed proposals are at this stage fairly meaningless.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited September 2016

    I wonder if some other (brave) MPs might change their calculations about Heathrow, or at least be more muted about their opposition to it, post Brexit.

    The MP for Maidenhead might well do so, I think.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    Yes, I think that works.

    I wonder if some other (brave) MPs might change their calculations about Heathrow, or at least be more muted about their opposition to it, post Brexit.
    I think it's already happening, Boris seems to be abnormally quiet about it.

    Sadiq seems to not give a shit, as predicted. His opposition was just a façade.
  • Nigelb said:

    The Front National is an actual thing, as are its analogues in several other EU countries. Sarkozy's plan is partly a reaction to that.
    'Local politics' is going to determine with whom we will be talking next year, which is why detailed proposals are at this stage fairly meaningless.
    It's a reaction to the Front National, that doesn't mean he actually intends to do it.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,537

    One small problem with that...
    Will he still be entitled to his pension once we've left?
  • It's a reaction to the Front National, that doesn't mean he actually intends to do it.
    Like the UK referendum was just a reaction to UKIP...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,507
    DavidL said:

    Fox and Davis or Mandelson and Osborne as your negotiating team. It's a tough one....

    Not going to happen unfortunately.
    Mandelson and Osborne are the Blair tribute act, but the country is in no mood for Blairism.

  • I nearly wrote a thread along those lines a few weeks ago.

    It was if Brexit (or if Brexit negotiations) leads to an economic disaster, we'd have a government of national unity, I was thinking of Mandy for PM or possibly Chancellor, or Trade Secretary

    He'll become the Red Adair of British government. When things really get tough, call in Mandy to take over.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    619 said:

    New poll of Florida:

    Clinton 46
    Trump 42
    Johnson 7

    via @MarcACaputo

    https://t.co/GjEpMSLXTu

    The early voting results here also look quite good for Clinton, allowing for the fact that Republicans are more likely to vote early:

    http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

    I think this is worth watching, ideally I would like a AndyJS type spreadsheet of projections for each state, so when they report then I can pile on with my betfair balance.

    Is there a reliable list of expected declaration times by state yet?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,716
    edited September 2016

    Like the UK referendum was just a reaction to UKIP...
    That was an actual, specific, actionable thing. The analogue to what Sarkozy is proposing isn't the referendum, it's Cameron's renegotiation. It's almost exactly the same strategy: The right are narked off with X, Y and Z, and you don't want to argue with them, but you also want to stay in the EU. So you say you'll change the EU so it no longer has X, Y and Z.

    He won't really do this, because even if there was an actionable proposal that Sarkozy actually wanted, everybody else has to agree, and they wouldn't be able to agree on which X's, Y's and Z's they were narked off with.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    Glad Anna Soubury is out of Goverment
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884

    One small problem with that...
    That could be worked around. Not that there will be any requirement to do so, of course. The three stooges will carry on regardless.

  • Ah yes, you're the halfwit that launched a diatribe against ComRes cause you thought Lord Cooper worked for ComRes.

    A period of silence from you on Lord Cooper would be welcome lest you get Mike into trouble.
    DM TSE
  • That was an actual, specific, actionable thing. The analogue to what Sarkozy is proposing isn't the referendum, it's Cameron's renegotiation. It's almost exactly the same strategy: The right are narked off with X, Y and Z, and you don't want to argue with them, but you also want to stay in the EU. So you say you'll change the EU so it no longer has X, Y and Z.

    He won't really do this, because even if there was an actionable proposal that Sarkozy actually wanted, everybody else has to agree, and they wouldn't be able to agree on which X's, Y's and Z's they were narked off with.
    Point taken, but there is one difference - Cameron didn't want a renegotiation, it was just a tactic, whereas Sarkozy actually does want changes that couldn't happen without a meaningful renegotiation. Plus he's a high-energy guy (the anti-Jeb!) and loves the spotlight so flying round Europe building his legacy will appeal to him.
  • PlatoSaid said:

    SkyNews
    #Rosetta probe to crash into comet #67P at 12.20. Watch the end of the @esa's ambitious mission live. #CometLanding https://t.co/eLiUGXnPr5?

    It's down. End of mission!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,507
    Blue_rog said:

    Glad Anna Soubury is out of Goverment

    Who isn't?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,079
    Sean_F said:

    The Lib Dems biggest problem is that they attracted voters from all over the political spectrum, who had a grudge against whichever of Conservatives or Labour were in power locally, and persuaded them to vote tactically against either the Conservatives or Labour. Once they went into government, all those voters vanished. Left wing Lib Dems started voting Labour, Green, or SNP; right wing Lib Dems went over to the Conservatives; Eurosceptic Lib Dems went over to UKIP. Trying to re-establish that coalition will take decades, and if they move left (as they are at present) they ensure they won't be getting back that section of their support that went over to the Tories.
    Like in Wold?
  • Sean_F said:

    Who isn't?
    Sourby?
  • He'll become the Red Adair of British government. When things really get tough, call in Mandy to take over.
    Snort
  • ChelyabinskChelyabinsk Posts: 509
    edited September 2016
    tlg86 said:

    Will he still be entitled to his pension once we've left?
    That would be one of the aspects included in the negotiation. So Mandelson would be negotiating in part to secure his own pension, and would need to remain demonstrably loyal to the EU while doing so. May as well put Kinnock in charge.
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784

    The early voting results here also look quite good for Clinton, allowing for the fact that Republicans are more likely to vote early:

    http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

    I think this is worth watching, ideally I would like a AndyJS type spreadsheet of projections for each state, so when they report then I can pile on with my betfair balance.

    Is there a reliable list of expected declaration times by state yet?
    Its a terrible time for him to crap out on the debates and start having a nervous breakdown on twitter when early voting is starting. Esp as the Cuba and Trump foundation stories are gaining steam.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,079
    Sean_F said:

    The Conservatives have a lead of 23,000 in Richmond Park. Never extrapolate a decent run of results in local by-elections to elections at Parliamentary level.
    I agree. If Zac resigns and stands again, the LDs don't stand a chance in Richmond Park. If, on the other hand, he packs it in as an MP, all bets are off.

    I think he won't resign. But if he does resign, I don't think he will stand again. He was bruised by the reaction to his Mayoral campaign and if he is rejected by the Tories on Heathrow, he might say "sod it" and pursue other interests.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,555

    One small problem with that...
    Losing a £31K a year pension? A mere flea-bite to Mandelson.

  • Point taken, but there is one difference - Cameron didn't want a renegotiation, it was just a tactic, whereas Sarkozy actually does want changes that couldn't happen without a meaningful renegotiation.

    Citation needed.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited September 2016

    YouGov

    The next general election is currently due to happen in May 2020. Do you think there should
    or should not be an early general election?

    Should be an early election 36%

    Should NOT be an early election 46%

    Just look at the splits!

    Con
    15% Yes
    76% No

    Lab
    65% Yes
    22% No

    I say us blues reach across party boundaries and give the red team what they want.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    Just look at the splits!

    Con
    15% Yes
    76% No

    Lab
    65% Yes
    22% No

    I say us blues reach across party boundaries and give the red team what they want.
    I think we should get the new boundaries through first then go to the public.
  • Citation needed.
    https://www.ft.com/content/aa006380-3397-11e6-bda0-04585c31b153
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    Perhaps, but the current (fairly meager) by-election data suggests otherwise. The LibDems are winning seats in middle-class areas, but going nowhere or even backwards in working class areas such as Blackpool last night.
    Of the parliamentary by-elections so far this year, the LDs lost 1.4% at Tooting, were unchanged at Ogmore, gained 1.6% at Sheffield Brightside and were unchanged at Oldham West, and didnt win any of them, hardly a ringing endorsement.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    That would be one of the aspects included in the negotiation. So Mandelson would be negotiating in part to secure his own pension, and would need to remain demonstrably loyal to the EU while doing so. May as well put Kinnock in charge.
    Mandleson might have his uses in the arena of international trade, but no-one in their right mind would trust him to represent the voice of the UK in the EU negotiations. His view of Brexit most likely involves joining the Euro.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,079
    Alistair said:

    The LA Times Tracker is now either the greatest poll in the history of the world or a poll so aberrant as to defy description. Trump +5.6 with 16.9% African American Support.

    Apart from its aberrance, it is a seven day rolling average. The poll that has just dropped off from eight days ago was when Trump had only a tiny lead on the tracker. The fact that the seven day average has gone up today is more likely to be caused by that eight day old data point dropping off than the new data point being massively in favour of Trump. Treat with extreme caution.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,555

    Just look at the splits!

    Con
    15% Yes
    76% No

    Lab
    65% Yes
    22% No

    I say us blues reach across party boundaries and give the red team what they want.
    And imagine if by some weird quirk of fate, the campaign went disastrously for May and let in Corbyn? You would have pissed off at least 76% of your party (and probably some of the 15% would be equally unforgiving if even two of their synapses had considered Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn a worthwhile thing to think about.... And that would be before Corbyn and Momentum set to work raising their blood pressure by about eighty points....
  • The early voting results here also look quite good for Clinton, allowing for the fact that Republicans are more likely to vote early:

    http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

    I think this is worth watching, ideally I would like a AndyJS type spreadsheet of projections for each state, so when they report then I can pile on with my betfair balance.

    Is there a reliable list of expected declaration times by state yet?
    The conventional wisdom is that Clinton has organization whereas Trump has enthusiasm. Early voting feels like an organization type of thing.
  • Sandpit said:

    Mandleson might have his uses in the arena of international trade, but no-one in their right mind would trust him to represent the voice of the UK in the EU negotiations. His view of Brexit most likely involves joining the Euro.
    It'd be like getting King Herod in as babysitter.
  • George's magnificent stewardship of the economy coupled with Dave's leadership were the primary reasons the Tories won a majority last year.

    George's day will come again.
    Did you type that one-handed?

    :innocent:
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    DavidL said:

    Fox and Davis or Mandelson and Osborne as your negotiating team. It's a tough one....

    Not going to happen unfortunately.
    Mandelson might be a touch concerned about his extremely generous EU pension...
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    619 said:

    New poll of Florida:

    Clinton 46
    Trump 42
    Johnson 7

    via @MarcACaputo

    https://t.co/GjEpMSLXTu

    On a poll with a margin of error of 3.5%, this is as bad as the last GE with everyone getting excited because of 1% movements in polls with 3% margins of error.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,555

    He'll become the Red Adair of British government. When things really get tough, call in Mandy to take over.
    Like Red Adair, you are grave risk of being flamed for that idea!
  • I'm very good at spotting Tory duffers ahead of most Tories.

    I kept on pointing out IDS was crap when the rest of my party elected him as leader.

    Eventually they saw the light.
    Yebbut IDS never lost a GE as Tory Leader!
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Barnesian said:

    Apart from its aberrance, it is a seven day rolling average. The poll that has just dropped off from eight days ago was when Trump had only a tiny lead on the tracker. The fact that the seven day average has gone up today is more likely to be caused by that eight day old data point dropping off than the new data point being massively in favour of Trump. Treat with extreme caution.
    538 said it should be adjusted so that an LA times 6% lead for Trump is level pegging.
  • Why this sudden man-love on PB for Lord "Resigned twice from cabinet" Mandelson?
  • It's down. End of mission!
    "Game over, man! Game over!"
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884

    It'd be like getting King Herod in as babysitter.
    I'm not sure that's the right metaphor for a negotiator because in my view the incumbents are acting too much like babysitters.

    But serious question. Do you think, as someone who wants to see Britain leave the EU on, I assume, relatively advantageous terms, that David Davies will get a better deal out of the EU than Mandelson would?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,079
    Indigo said:

    On a poll with a margin of error of 3.5%, this is as bad as the last GE with everyone getting excited because of 1% movements in polls with 3% margins of error.
    Latest polls today on RCP.

    Michigan D 42% R 35%
    New Hampshire D 42% R 35%

    All the polls are moving the same way. I agree single polls are within MOE but there is a significant pattern here.

    Plus Trump is allegedly losing it because he is being beaten by a girl.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Betting post

    The 3.25 on Europe in the golf with BetFred is value and I have taken it.

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Indigo said:

    On a poll with a margin of error of 3.5%, this is as bad as the last GE with everyone getting excited because of 1% movements in polls with 3% margins of error.
    The final polls for Florida 2012 looked like

    Gravis Marketing Tie
    Florida Times-Union/InAdv Romney +5
    PPP (D) Obama +1
    TBT/Herald/Mason-Dixon Romney +6
    NBC/WSJ/Marist Obama +2

    Obama won by 0.9
  • Like Red Adair, you are grave risk of being flamed for that idea!
    And rightly so. Mandelson is shit. All this 'Prince of Darkness' nonsense gives him massively undeserved kudos.
  • George's magnificent stewardship of the economy coupled with Dave's leadership were the primary reasons the Tories won a majority last year.
    And then they went & cocked it up in one of the most spectacular political own-goals in living memory......

    It's a funny old world.....
  • matt said:

    Not so much a mess as functionally non-existent.
    Piccadilly line and the Heathrow Express and Heathrow Connect services are hardly "non-existent"!

    There's also a projected link from the Great Western Line from the west (Slough area).
  • Why this sudden man-love on PB for Lord "Resigned twice from cabinet" Mandelson?

    Three reasons: Boris, Davis and Fox.
  • Three reasons: Boris, Davis and Fox.
    But did any of them have to resign from Cabinet twice?
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Alistair said:

    The final polls for Florida 2012 looked like

    Gravis Marketing Tie
    Florida Times-Union/InAdv Romney +5
    PPP (D) Obama +1
    TBT/Herald/Mason-Dixon Romney +6
    NBC/WSJ/Marist Obama +2

    Obama won by 0.9
    Differential turnout in FL often helps the Democrats.

    Particularly if the GOP candidate goes out of his way to anger Hispanics...
  • But did any of them have to resign from Cabinet twice?
    Not yet.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited September 2016
    Barnesian said:

    Latest polls today on RCP.

    Michigan D 42% R 35%
    New Hampshire D 42% R 35%

    All the polls are moving the same way. I agree single polls are within MOE but there is a significant pattern here.

    Plus Trump is allegedly losing it because he is being beaten by a girl.
    As has been noted many times before it's a shame they both can't lose.

    I have a nasty suspicion that the days following the election are going to make the EU Referendum look like a mild disagreement. They are going to be very lucky if they only get a blizzard of lawsuits, and not serious civil disobedience.
  • PlatoSaid said:

    SkyNews
    #Rosetta probe to crash into comet #67P at 12.20. Watch the end of the @esa's ambitious mission live. #CometLanding https://t.co/eLiUGXnPr5?

    I hope the arrogant feckers who are responsible get fined for fly-tipping.
  • And then they went & cocked it up in one of the most spectacular political own-goals in living memory......

    It's a funny old world.....
    Enoch was right In this country in 15 or 20 years' time the black man will have the whip hand over the white man, All political lives, unless they are cut off in midstream at a happy juncture, end in failure, because that is the nature of politics and of human affairs.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Yebbut IDS never lost a GE as Tory Leader!
    Big Sam never lost a game while England manager!
  • Piccadilly line and the Heathrow Express and Heathrow Connect services are hardly "non-existent"!

    There's also a projected link from the Great Western Line from the west (Slough area).
    Manchester Airport is served by train services from all over the north of England, and beyond. London Heathrow is served by train services from the west side of London and the western suburbs only.
  • Enoch was right In this country in 15 or 20 years' time the black man will have the whip hand over the white man, All political lives, unless they are cut off in midstream at a happy juncture, end in failure, because that is the nature of politics and of human affairs.
    "We must be SAD, literally SAD!"

    :innocent:
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,079
    This looks like a good resource for betting purposes.

    http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-winner

    Apologies if it has been noted before.
  • Big Sam never lost a game while England manager!
    Indeed, yes, better than the other "caretakers" Wilko, Pete Taylor and Psycho!
  • Manchester Airport is served by train services from all over the north of England, and beyond. London Heathrow is served by train services from the west side of London and the western suburbs only.
    Cockfosters, Finsbury Park and the Arsenal are in West London?
  • And imagine if by some weird quirk of fate, the campaign went disastrously for May and let in Corbyn? You would have pissed off at least 76% of your party (and probably some of the 15% would be equally unforgiving if even two of their synapses had considered Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn a worthwhile thing to think about.... And that would be before Corbyn and Momentum set to work raising their blood pressure by about eighty points....
    Do please elaborate further on this "quirk of fate" :-)
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited September 2016
    That Florentine administrator knew exactly why BrExit would be a pain to organise, and predicted the Remoaners in 1513

    It ought to be remembered that there is nothing more difficult to take in hand,
    more perilous to conduct, or more uncertain in its success,
    than to take the lead in the introduction of a new order of things.
    Because the innovator has for enemies all those who have done well under the old conditions,
    and lukewarm defenders in those who may do well under the new.
    This coolness arises partly from fear of the opponents, who have the laws on their side,
    and partly from the incredulity of men, who do not readily believe in new things
    until they have had a long experience of them.

    :)
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Re: Mandelson

    He would be an excellent choice for the EU negotiations – an extremely able, intelligent, strategic and serious figure who would broker a good deal for Britain.

    As for the three clowns we currently have 'in charge' – they are in serious danger of rendering the UK an international laughing stock, a status which we are on the brink of already.
  • Jobabob said:

    Re: Mandelson

    He would be an excellent choice for the EU negotiations – an extremely able, intelligent, strategic and serious figure who would broker a good deal for Britain.

    I didn't know you moonlighted as a stand-up comedian Jobabob!!!!

    :lol::lol::lol:
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Indigo said:

    As has been noted many times before it's a shame they both can't lose.

    I have a nasty suspicion that the days following the election are going to make the EU Referendum look like a mild disagreement. They are going to be very lucky if they only get a blizzard of lawsuits, and not serious civil disobedience.
    As unfashionable a view as it is on here, I'm not a subscriber to the transparent "I wish they would both lose" "plague on both their houses" schtick.

    I think Hillary will make a fine president.
  • Cockfosters, Finsbury Park and the Arsenal are in West London?
    I said train services, not mobile sardine cans!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    edited September 2016

    Manchester Airport is served by train services from all over the north of England, and beyond. London Heathrow is served by train services from the west side of London and the western suburbs only.

    And the Piccadilly line which comes in from North London. Though the journey time is far too long. Crossrail from East London and GWML/HS2/CR via Old Oak Common at some point.
This discussion has been closed.