politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Dreadful set of local election results overnight sees CON l
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Bad news for Trump on my average daily tracking poll.
The weekly update that I had to delay is in.
Hillary 45.5
Trump 44
From a tie last week Hillary grew a small lead over last weekend, and it's still growing at around a 2 point lead right now, essentially the race is back to what it was at early September.
Most importantly it's not that Trump is going down but Hillary going up, and the situation doesn't appear to be favourable for Trump.
Since every time he gets close 3rd party voters seem to panic and break for Hillary to stop Trump, this means that for Trump to actually beat Hillary he has to get a majority of votes, a plurality in the opinion polls at any time is not enough.
I just can't see how Trump can become more popular and less toxic than Hillary, even at the best circumstances (with Terrorism and Riots) he can't break even, and I can't see him winning the debate.0 -
Corbyn is as much a threat to the Greens as he is an opportunity for the LibDemsTCPoliticalBetting said:
Yes, possible that they could gain from the abandoned centrist Lab voters. But this is about the rate of progress in large bites each year. Could they increase by more than 1,500 in 2017, 2018 and 2019 to go into 2020 GE with circa 3,500? I doubt it, but if they really want to be able to gain 30+ seats that is the sort of cllr base they would need to get to. Boasting about a few cllr by elections is just fluff.JosiasJessop said:
That assumes the rate does not change - in either direction, of course. But if Labour continue to the left, and May takes the Conservatives to the right, there may be plenty of room for the LD's to gather up votes.TCPoliticalBetting said:
They think they are on their way back after gaining 18 seats in 4 months. Ignoring the fact that they are still under 2,000 seats. At their peak they had 5,000. At 100 seat gains a year it will take them 30 years to get back to where they once were.IanB2 said:
Why? Hope is to LibDems as blood is to vampires. Or something like that, anyway.TCPoliticalBetting said:It is the hope that will kill the Lib Dems.
It would take a change in the voting system for them to win, but I certainly think there's good potential for a strong centrist, liberal voice to appeal to people.
But that assumes that the centre ground opens up for them, and that they get the media attention that has been rather lacking for them of late.
The big danger for them could be if the Greens picked up those votes.0 -
A lot of people seem to think she is right wing, and are even rejoining the Tories on that basis. If she is not making a huge change in direction she is courting that image.IanB2 said:
Too early to say? It may be 'what she says' v 'what she does'.Animal_pb said:
I genuinely don't get the idea of TMay as a hard right politician. So far, most of what we've seen has been pretty centrist, she just comes across as "tougher" than her predecessor. There's really not as much open space in the centre ground as some seem to suggest.IanB2 said:
Well I don't see any low risk options for Osbo, given his profile and popularity.Mortimer said:
Relatively high risk for Osborne - I thought it was Cameron who liked a political gamble....Scott_P said:With the Northern Powerhouse looking less likely, and hard Brexit more likely, George Osborne does seem to be positioning himself as the "I told you so" candidate.
And winning praise from lefties in doing so.
Anyhow, there isn't any space to the left of Corbyn, and the small amount of space to the right of May is already over-crowded. So politics awaits someone ambitious anywhere from ex Cameroons through LibDem to Blairite who can stake out and build support around any sort of 'moderate' position.
May's Downing Street words were reassuringly moderate (but then so were Thatcher's). Brexit is right-wing (on the basis that its principal champions have always been right-wing Tories and UKIP) and the harder flavours that appear to be heading our way are the more right wing. Grammar schools is another policy popular mostly with righter-wing Tories. Gove's prison reforms were moderate and have been ditched. Despite the talk about helping ordinary people struggling with their bills and the housing market there have been no concrete proposals as yet.
Edit/ and anyway my point was that the political space to her right is already crowded, which is clearly true!
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Just a reminder that most council seats are determined in batches every four years. May 2017 will be interesting.TCPoliticalBetting said:
They think they are on their way back after gaining 18 seats in 4 months. Ignoring the fact that they are still under 2,000 seats. At their peak they had 5,000. At 100 seat gains a year it will take them 30 years to get back to where they once were.IanB2 said:
Why? Hope is to LibDems as blood is to vampires. Or something like that, anyway.TCPoliticalBetting said:It is the hope that will kill the Lib Dems.
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I think Google would at least make money from it. Making use of the data, better advertising (which Twitter are hopeless at), directing people to YouTube and the Play Store, integrating other services like Google Maps, and probably dropping Google Assistant into it at some (which seems to be Google's big master plan for a lot of their services).FrancisUrquhart said:Google and crappy social networks...that sounds about right...
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Or he could do it the Brexit way: Get the media reporting that he's losing, then win based on people who wouldn't admit they were going to vote for him.Speedy said:
Since every time he gets close 3rd party voters seem to panic and break for Hillary to stop Trump, this means that for Trump to actually beat Hillary he has to get a majority of votes, a plurality in the opinion polls at any time is not enough.0 -
You would hope so, given all their resources and interlinked products, but their record on "getting" social networks so far has been absolutely terrible. Also, as we said the other day the problem with twitter is not just the trolls, or the fact the main demographic of users are those with no money (and for teenagers it is most definitely not cool), or the piss poor data analytics, it is as a product it hasn't really changed since launched and for a newbie is not user friendly at all.glw said:
I think Google would at least make money from it. Making use of the data, better advertising (which Twitter are hopeless at), directing people to YouTube and the Play Store, integrating other services like Google Maps, and probably dropping Google Assistant into it at some (which seems to be Google's big master plan for a lot of their services).FrancisUrquhart said:Google and crappy social networks...that sounds about right...
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The looming Autumn Statement will be critical. The Tories have to square, on the one hand, their fundamental economic outlook and six years of long-term-economic-plan = austerity with, on the other, the growing realisation that austerity is a dead end and that Brexit will need more monetary and fiscal support and more investment than the previous emphasis on balancing the books. I think this is a very difficult challenge. May's proto-Miliband 'many not few' rhetoric makes it even more so.kle4 said:
A lot of people seem to think she is right wing, and are even rejoining the Tories on that basis. If she is not making a huge change in direction she is courting that image.IanB2 said:
Too early to say? It may be 'what she says' v 'what she does'.Animal_pb said:
I genuinely don't get the idea of TMay as a hard right politician. So far, most of what we've seen has been pretty centrist, she just comes across as "tougher" than her predecessor. There's really not as much open space in the centre ground as some seem to suggest.IanB2 said:
Well I don't see any low risk options for Osbo, given his profile and popularity.Mortimer said:
Relatively high risk for Osborne - I thought it was Cameron who liked a political gamble....Scott_P said:With the Northern Powerhouse looking less likely, and hard Brexit more likely, George Osborne does seem to be positioning himself as the "I told you so" candidate.
And winning praise from lefties in doing so.
Anyhow, there isn't any space to the left of Corbyn, and the small amount of space to the right of May is already over-crowded. So politics awaits someone ambitious anywhere from ex Cameroons through LibDem to Blairite who can stake out and build support around any sort of 'moderate' position.
May's Downing Street words were reassuringly moderate (but then so were Thatcher's). Brexit is right-wing (on the basis that its principal champions have always been right-wing Tories and UKIP) and the harder flavours that appear to be heading our way are the more right wing. Grammar schools is another policy popular mostly with righter-wing Tories. Gove's prison reforms were moderate and have been ditched. Despite the talk about helping ordinary people struggling with their bills and the housing market there have been no concrete proposals as yet.
Edit/ and anyway my point was that the political space to her right is already crowded, which is clearly true!0 -
Twitter has a great base product but fiddles about on the edges - why can't we edit a tweet FFS? It's taken YEARS to have those named removed from the character count or the bizarre requirement to stick a period before a name to share a reply with everyone? Blah blah.glw said:
I think Google would at least make money from it. Making use of the data, better advertising (which Twitter are hopeless at), directing people to YouTube and the Play Store, integrating other services like Google Maps, and probably dropping Google Assistant into it at some (which seems to be Google's big master plan for a lot of their services).FrancisUrquhart said:Google and crappy social networks...that sounds about right...
And then there's the very obvious political bias/removal of trending subjects. It's doomed until someone who actually gets it - buys it.
EDIT re advertising - today, I've had ads for sensible non-slip shoes, Citrix and IBM. At least they're in English. The relevance of these to me is zero. Just like every day. I've no idea what they're using to judge my interest areas. It can't be based on the 130k tweets I've posted as a sample size0 -
No - or at least, not based on that second-hand puff piece borrowed from the FT interview.GIN1138 said:Toxic failure George Osborne is still angling to be PM then?
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/09/george-osborne-warns-wont-fumble-next-leadership-bid/0 -
Why did they choose 140 rather than a more logical 150 characters?PlatoSaid said:
Twitter has a great base product but fiddles about on the edges - why can't we edit a tweet FFS? It's taken YEARS to have those named removed from the character count or the bizarre requirement to stick a period before a name to share a reply with everyone? Blah blah.glw said:
I think Google would at least make money from it. Making use of the data, better advertising (which Twitter are hopeless at), directing people to YouTube and the Play Store, integrating other services like Google Maps, and probably dropping Google Assistant into it at some (which seems to be Google's big master plan for a lot of their services).FrancisUrquhart said:Google and crappy social networks...that sounds about right...
And then there's the very obvious political bias/removal of trending subjects. It's doomed until someone who actually gets it - buys it.0 -
I am in a mood so apologies in advance for the tone of this post.
But - re Jim O'Neill -
1. We can't moan about politicians all being infantile SPADs and other useless tossers with no experience of the world and all in it for themselves and then get snippy when someone older and experienced tries to give something back. O'Neill also got involved in the campaign to minimize the excessive use of antibiotics, a very worthwhile cause which will save lives.
2. We can't complain about people making assumptions on the basis of some irrelevant characteristic and then launch into criticism of someone just because of where they worked without actually looking at the individual and seeing whether he or she is worth paying attention to.
3. The North has been neglected and patronised and sneered at for far too long. This has been and continues to be a disgrace. If you have 5 hours available (and if you don't, find the time) listen to Melvyn Bragg's series "In the Matter of the North" and how a part of the world which was so central to the Industrial Revolution, to our culture and to our radical politics, to our politics generally has - despite its contribution - been so derided.
4. We cannot attack politicians like Cameron and Blair for abandoning politics to line their own pockets and then get snippy at those who stick around even as lowly backbenchers. It is to Osborne's credit (whatever his other motives may be) that he is continuing with his Northern Powerhouse project.
There is not a superabundance of talent in the government that we can afford to be so careless with those who are trying to help. May herself is not some sort of genius who can sort out everything herself, no matter how hard she works. She will need help. She will need to syndicate her decisions and have others supporting and speaking up about the government's policies. The government has barely left the harbour. What the hell will happen when it is out in the open sea? When it is in stormy seas?
I can be as cynical as the next person. But I think it a pity that some silly policies and some silly ways of reaching decisions have led people to bail out. That does not bode well for good government and we will need this in the years ahead.0 -
From what group? He is down in all groups by a large degree except for WWC, which is factored in the polls. Unless you are saying there are a large contingent of college educated white's who agree with him ( which is somewhat unlikely given he hasn't tried courting them) I don't see where the hidden voters are coming from.edmundintokyo said:
Or he could do it the Brexit way: Get the media reporting that he's losing, then win based on people who wouldn't admit they were going to vote for him.Speedy said:
Since every time he gets close 3rd party voters seem to panic and break for Hillary to stop Trump, this means that for Trump to actually beat Hillary he has to get a majority of votes, a plurality in the opinion polls at any time is not enough.
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Actually, I voted for Wes StreetingSquareRoot said:
and you'll have to live with that ghastly thought forever whirring around in your head...Sunil_Prasannan said:
I voted Labour at the GE2015.IanB2 said:
Even within the Tory party it was always a right-wing obsession, and you see the same across Europe - it's generally the right wing parties (Le Pen et al) who are leading the anti-EU crusade.MarqueeMark said:
Brexit was voted for by the majority and is by its very nature neither left wing or right wing, but populist...IanB2 said:
Brexit is right-wing (on the basis that its principal champions have always been right-wing Tories and UKIP)
Voting for Miliband Jr.. Yikes!
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Particularly as the people in that category are disproportionately in the states he needs to win.edmundintokyo said:
Or he could do it the Brexit way: Get the media reporting that he's losing, then win based on people who wouldn't admit they were going to vote for him.Speedy said:
Since every time he gets close 3rd party voters seem to panic and break for Hillary to stop Trump, this means that for Trump to actually beat Hillary he has to get a majority of votes, a plurality in the opinion polls at any time is not enough.0 -
Vote Streeting get Miliband. Or vote Streeting get Corbyn. That latter one he is going to find tough.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Actually, I voted for Wes StreetingSquareRoot said:
and you'll have to live with that ghastly thought forever whirring around in your head...Sunil_Prasannan said:
I voted Labour at the GE2015.IanB2 said:
Even within the Tory party it was always a right-wing obsession, and you see the same across Europe - it's generally the right wing parties (Le Pen et al) who are leading the anti-EU crusade.MarqueeMark said:
Brexit was voted for by the majority and is by its very nature neither left wing or right wing, but populist...IanB2 said:
Brexit is right-wing (on the basis that its principal champions have always been right-wing Tories and UKIP)
Voting for Miliband Jr.. Yikes!0 -
I think Wes backed Kendall last summer.IanB2 said:
Vote Streeting get Miliband. Or vote Streeting get Corbyn. That latter one he is going to find tough.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Actually, I voted for Wes StreetingSquareRoot said:
and you'll have to live with that ghastly thought forever whirring around in your head...Sunil_Prasannan said:
I voted Labour at the GE2015.IanB2 said:
Even within the Tory party it was always a right-wing obsession, and you see the same across Europe - it's generally the right wing parties (Le Pen et al) who are leading the anti-EU crusade.MarqueeMark said:
Brexit was voted for by the majority and is by its very nature neither left wing or right wing, but populist...IanB2 said:
Brexit is right-wing (on the basis that its principal champions have always been right-wing Tories and UKIP)
Voting for Miliband Jr.. Yikes!0 -
You don't want things you've retweeted changing underneath you.PlatoSaid said:why can't we edit a tweet FFS?
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My recollection in previous years has been the LDs held up well even won in many individual by-elections, but still got smashed in the batch elections in May. Next year will be interesting. In Wiltshire where I am in 2013 the LDs increased their seats by a few despite dropping masses of votes (and moving from second place in like 50 seats to second in about 10), it'll be interesting if now we are out of coalition government and May seems to be wanting to disassociate herself with anything Cameroon, whether the vote increases.IanB2 said:
Just a reminder that most council seats are determined in batches every four years. May 2017 will be interesting.TCPoliticalBetting said:
They think they are on their way back after gaining 18 seats in 4 months. Ignoring the fact that they are still under 2,000 seats. At their peak they had 5,000. At 100 seat gains a year it will take them 30 years to get back to where they once were.IanB2 said:
Why? Hope is to LibDems as blood is to vampires. Or something like that, anyway.TCPoliticalBetting said:It is the hope that will kill the Lib Dems.
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At yet I was laughing out loud every time Labour lost a seat on Election Night - I stayed up till 8 am!!!0
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It was said that Twitter didn't seem to understand its own service or what people wanted from it, or how to make money from it. The last one seems to have improved a bit hasn't it? (I don't use Twitter).0
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The referendum polling failure was, I think, more down to the fact that people who don't vote but said they would broke with tradition and actually did.edmundintokyo said:
Or he could do it the Brexit way: Get the media reporting that he's losing, then win based on people who wouldn't admit they were going to vote for him.Speedy said:
Since every time he gets close 3rd party voters seem to panic and break for Hillary to stop Trump, this means that for Trump to actually beat Hillary he has to get a majority of votes, a plurality in the opinion polls at any time is not enough.0 -
Sunil_Prasannan said:
Why did they choose 140 rather than a more logical 150 characters?PlatoSaid said:
Twitter has a great base product but fiddles about on the edges - why can't we edit a tweet FFS? It's taken YEARS to have those named removed from the character count or the bizarre requirement to stick a period before a name to share a reply with everyone? Blah blah.glw said:
I think Google would at least make money from it. Making use of the data, better advertising (which Twitter are hopeless at), directing people to YouTube and the Play Store, integrating other services like Google Maps, and probably dropping Google Assistant into it at some (which seems to be Google's big master plan for a lot of their services).FrancisUrquhart said:Google and crappy social networks...that sounds about right...
And then there's the very obvious political bias/removal of trending subjects. It's doomed until someone who actually gets it - buys it.
It was originally designed to be used using mobile texting which set the upper limit (160 - less 20 reserved chars for Twitter stuff).
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Stroppy or not I agree with most of this. And don't really understand why May would not want to continue Osborne's new emphasis on the north - even if this was as much of politics as of genuine purpose? As well as being inherently worthwhile in terms of rebalancing the country, it would appear to fit with May's Downing Street aspirations. The only counter-explanation I can see is that May is going to turn into one of those narrow minded 'looking after our own people' type of Tories, which is not what she promised.Cyclefree said:I am in a mood so apologies in advance for the tone of this post.
But - re Jim O'Neill -
1. We can't moan about politicians all being infantile SPADs and other useless tossers with no experience of the world and all in it for themselves and then get snippy when someone older and experienced tries to give something back. O'Neill also got involved in the campaign to minimize the excessive use of antibiotics, a very worthwhile cause which will save lives.
2. We can't complain about people making assumptions on the basis of some irrelevant characteristic and then launch into criticism of someone just because of where they worked without actually looking at the individual and seeing whether he or she is worth paying attention to.
3. The North has been neglected and patronised and sneered at for far too long. This has been and continues to be a disgrace. If you have 5 hours available (and if you don't, find the time) listen to Melvyn Bragg's series "In the Matter of the North" and how a part of the world which was so central to the Industrial Revolution, to our culture and to our radical politics, to our politics generally has - despite its contribution - been so derided.
4. We cannot attack politicians like Cameron and Blair for abandoning politics to line their own pockets and then get snippy at those who stick around even as lowly backbenchers. It is to Osborne's credit (whatever his other motives may be) that he is continuing with his Northern Powerhouse project.
There is not a superabundance of talent in the government that we can afford to be so careless with those who are trying to help. May herself is not some sort of genius who can sort out everything herself, no matter how hard she works. She will need help. She will need to syndicate her decisions and have others supporting and speaking up about the government's policies. The government has barely left the harbour. What the hell will happen when it is out in the open sea? When it is in stormy seas?
I can be as cynical as the next person. But I think it a pity that some silly policies and some silly ways of reaching decisions have led people to bail out. That does not bode well for good government and we will need this in the years ahead.0 -
SMS length 160 chars. Username uses 20 chars of that.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Why did they choose 140 rather than a more logical 150 characters?PlatoSaid said:
Twitter has a great base product but fiddles about on the edges - why can't we edit a tweet FFS? It's taken YEARS to have those named removed from the character count or the bizarre requirement to stick a period before a name to share a reply with everyone? Blah blah.glw said:
I think Google would at least make money from it. Making use of the data, better advertising (which Twitter are hopeless at), directing people to YouTube and the Play Store, integrating other services like Google Maps, and probably dropping Google Assistant into it at some (which seems to be Google's big master plan for a lot of their services).FrancisUrquhart said:Google and crappy social networks...that sounds about right...
And then there's the very obvious political bias/removal of trending subjects. It's doomed until someone who actually gets it - buys it.
I think!0 -
Wasn't it because the system was designed to be used in conjunction with text messages, and they had a character limit of something like 162 and the rest was taken up with the code for the software. (I don't know computing, obviously)Sunil_Prasannan said:
Why did they choose 140 rather than a more logical 150 characters?PlatoSaid said:
Twitter has a great base product but fiddles about on the edges - why can't we edit a tweet FFS? It's taken YEARS to have those named removed from the character count or the bizarre requirement to stick a period before a name to share a reply with everyone? Blah blah.glw said:
I think Google would at least make money from it. Making use of the data, better advertising (which Twitter are hopeless at), directing people to YouTube and the Play Store, integrating other services like Google Maps, and probably dropping Google Assistant into it at some (which seems to be Google's big master plan for a lot of their services).FrancisUrquhart said:Google and crappy social networks...that sounds about right...
And then there's the very obvious political bias/removal of trending subjects. It's doomed until someone who actually gets it - buys it.0 -
"even if this was as much of politics as of genuine purpose? "IanB2 said:Stroppy or not I agree with most of this. And don't really understand why May would not want to continue Osborne's new emphasis on the north - even if this was as much of politics as of genuine purpose? As well as being inherently worthwhile in terms of rebalancing the country, it would appear to fit with May's Downing Street aspirations. The only counter-explanation I can see is that May is going to turn into one of those narrow minded 'protecting our own people' type of Tories, which is not what she promised.
I think Osborne really believed in the Northern Powerhouse. After the election win last year, one of his first - I think his first - tweet was about the need to get building the Northern Powerhouse.
If Twitter had a better interface I might even be able to find it ...0 -
And that's something else Google could fix, integrate a decent search engine.JosiasJessop said:If Twitter had a better interface I might even be able to find it ...
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I think they will gain but the question is by how much. The real challenge they face is that six years of losses have hit their banks of activists, councillors and local funding, so it is hard for them to step up to win a raft of wards at the same time, even if we assume that the political prospects are more positive. Having lots of new members will help with this, but the benefits of experienced campaigners, councillors with a profile and contacts, and the money that being elected brings in are hard to quickly replace.kle4 said:
My recollection in previous years has been the LDs held up well even won in many individual by-elections, but still got smashed in the batch elections in May. Next year will be interesting. In Wiltshire where I am in 2013 the LDs increased their seats by a few despite dropping masses of votes (and moving from second place in like 50 seats to second in about 10), it'll be interesting if now we are out of coalition government and May seems to be wanting to disassociate herself with anything Cameroon, whether the vote increases.IanB2 said:
Just a reminder that most council seats are determined in batches every four years. May 2017 will be interesting.TCPoliticalBetting said:
They think they are on their way back after gaining 18 seats in 4 months. Ignoring the fact that they are still under 2,000 seats. At their peak they had 5,000. At 100 seat gains a year it will take them 30 years to get back to where they once were.IanB2 said:
Why? Hope is to LibDems as blood is to vampires. Or something like that, anyway.TCPoliticalBetting said:It is the hope that will kill the Lib Dems.
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SMSSunil_Prasannan said:
Why did they choose 140 rather than a more logical 150 characters?PlatoSaid said:
Twitter has a great base product but fiddles about on the edges - why can't we edit a tweet FFS? It's taken YEARS to have those named removed from the character count or the bizarre requirement to stick a period before a name to share a reply with everyone? Blah blah.glw said:
I think Google would at least make money from it. Making use of the data, better advertising (which Twitter are hopeless at), directing people to YouTube and the Play Store, integrating other services like Google Maps, and probably dropping Google Assistant into it at some (which seems to be Google's big master plan for a lot of their services).FrancisUrquhart said:Google and crappy social networks...that sounds about right...
And then there's the very obvious political bias/removal of trending subjects. It's doomed until someone who actually gets it - buys it.0 -
I broadly agree with you, with the reservation that it's hard to extrapolate for single cases - like marriages which are often a mystery to close friends (either that they work or that they don't fall apart), an individual can simply fall out with the PM and then various policy issues reinforce an underlying antipathy.Cyclefree said:I am in a mood so apologies in advance for the tone of this post.
But - re Jim O'Neill - (snip to avoid repeating)
But it does seem striking that May is accumulating quite a few dissatisfied people who with a little effort she could have kept on board. Cameron is reportedly quite alienated, to the point of having changed his min about staying on; Osborne is in "loyal opposition" mode already, and we've only just started. She seems to believe in relatively small tents, and that could be an awkward trait when the going gets rough, partly because she doesn't have a mandate from anyone, except for being the only candidate left standing.
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Good afternoon, everyone.0
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@BBCJLandale: David Cameron's chief of staff, Ed Llewellyn, appointed UK Ambassador to Paris. A political appointment that might ruffle feathers.0
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Yes, but with Osborne there was always politics involved. Arguably with Ruth's successes in Scotland, the urban north remains more allergic to the Tories than do the Scots. It was good politics to use Labour's weakness to try and counter this, as well as good sense for the country. The most disappointing rumour I have heard is that May is killing it because she doesn't want the more powerful northern mayoral positions to rescue the careers of the leading moderate Labour MPs. If this is the true reason this would be disappointing and make her worse than Osborne in terms of her motivation.JosiasJessop said:
"even if this was as much of politics as of genuine purpose? "IanB2 said:Stroppy or not I agree with most of this. And don't really understand why May would not want to continue Osborne's new emphasis on the north - even if this was as much of politics as of genuine purpose? As well as being inherently worthwhile in terms of rebalancing the country, it would appear to fit with May's Downing Street aspirations. The only counter-explanation I can see is that May is going to turn into one of those narrow minded 'protecting our own people' type of Tories, which is not what she promised.
I think Osborne really believed in the Northern Powerhouse. After the election win last year, one of his first - I think his first - tweet was about the need to get building the Northern Powerhouse.
If Twitter had a better interface I might even be able to find it ...0 -
Good afternoon Mr. Dancer.Morris_Dancer said:Good afternoon, everyone.
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By the way what time are the results of the Labour leadership election due tomorrow ?0
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Hi, what was that website that showed how people are voting based on party registration in North Carolina?Alistair said:
Yup, you have to pay careful attention to whether polls are reporting Registered Voters, All Respondents, Likely Voters etc as their result.rottenborough said:
Can't you register on the day in some US states?Alistair said:0 -
Any coalition except a continuation of the CDU/SPD grand alliance, for which the numbers currently only barely stack up, must necessarily include AfDAndyJS said:Infratest dimap:
CDU/CSU: 32%
SPD: 22%
AfD: 16%
Green: 12%
Left: 8%
FDP: 6%
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/0 -
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I can guarantee that if you vote for Streeting again, you ain't gonna get Kendall...Sunil_Prasannan said:
I think Wes backed Kendall last summer.IanB2 said:
Vote Streeting get Miliband. Or vote Streeting get Corbyn. That latter one he is going to find tough.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Actually, I voted for Wes StreetingSquareRoot said:
and you'll have to live with that ghastly thought forever whirring around in your head...Sunil_Prasannan said:
I voted Labour at the GE2015.IanB2 said:
Even within the Tory party it was always a right-wing obsession, and you see the same across Europe - it's generally the right wing parties (Le Pen et al) who are leading the anti-EU crusade.MarqueeMark said:
Brexit was voted for by the majority and is by its very nature neither left wing or right wing, but populist...IanB2 said:
Brexit is right-wing (on the basis that its principal champions have always been right-wing Tories and UKIP)
Voting for Miliband Jr.. Yikes!0 -
Umm
EyeSpy
After media hype + government response, sad to see @lynbrownmp texting & driving on Upton Lane at 14:200 -
The result of the election will be announced at the Leadership Conference on Saturday 24 September 2016. The event will be broadcast live on labour.org.uk and on Labour's Facebook page from 11:45am.Speedy said:By the way what time are the results of the Labour leadership election due tomorrow ?
http://www.labour.org.uk/pages/labour-party-leadership-election-20160 -
A Jamaica coalition would just about work if the SPD refused to deal with the AfD, which would certainly be the case.FF43 said:
Any coalition except a continuation of the CDU/SPD grand alliance, for which the numbers currently only barely stack up, must necessarily include AfDAndyJS said:Infratest dimap:
CDU/CSU: 32%
SPD: 22%
AfD: 16%
Green: 12%
Left: 8%
FDP: 6%
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/0 -
"Yes, but with Osborne there was always politics involved."IanB2 said:
Yes, but with Osborne there was always politics involved. Arguably with Ruth's successes in Scotland, the urban north remains more allergic to the Tories than do the Scots. It was good politics to use Labour's weakness to try and counter this, as well as good sense for the country. (Snip)JosiasJessop said:
"even if this was as much of politics as of genuine purpose? "IanB2 said:Stroppy or not I agree with most of this. And don't really understand why May would not want to continue Osborne's new emphasis on the north - even if this was as much of politics as of genuine purpose? As well as being inherently worthwhile in terms of rebalancing the country, it would appear to fit with May's Downing Street aspirations. The only counter-explanation I can see is that May is going to turn into one of those narrow minded 'protecting our own people' type of Tories, which is not what she promised.
I think Osborne really believed in the Northern Powerhouse. After the election win last year, one of his first - I think his first - tweet was about the need to get building the Northern Powerhouse.
If Twitter had a better interface I might even be able to find it ...
I'd argue that's the case for all senior politicians. That's why they're politicians.
But I do think Osborne believed (and believes) in the NP. Yes, there were some electoral advantages, but these were minor compared to the political capital it required. Also, it involved *working* with some Labour figures and councils.
As much as I try, I cannot see much reason for cynicism. Although the proof may come if he abandons pressing the NP's cause now.
Agree with the rest of your post.0 -
Well, whomever I vote for, the new Ilford North will no longer be a marginal, but pretty safe Labour.IanB2 said:
I can guarantee that if you vote for Streeting again, you ain't gonna get Kendall...Sunil_Prasannan said:
I think Wes backed Kendall last summer.IanB2 said:
Vote Streeting get Miliband. Or vote Streeting get Corbyn. That latter one he is going to find tough.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Actually, I voted for Wes StreetingSquareRoot said:
and you'll have to live with that ghastly thought forever whirring around in your head...Sunil_Prasannan said:
I voted Labour at the GE2015.IanB2 said:
Even within the Tory party it was always a right-wing obsession, and you see the same across Europe - it's generally the right wing parties (Le Pen et al) who are leading the anti-EU crusade.MarqueeMark said:
Brexit was voted for by the majority and is by its very nature neither left wing or right wing, but populist...IanB2 said:
Brexit is right-wing (on the basis that its principal champions have always been right-wing Tories and UKIP)
Voting for Miliband Jr.. Yikes!0 -
Not a chance, Greens or FDP.FF43 said:
Any coalition except a continuation of the CDU/SPD grand alliance, for which the numbers currently only barely stack up, must necessarily include AfDAndyJS said:Infratest dimap:
CDU/CSU: 32%
SPD: 22%
AfD: 16%
Green: 12%
Left: 8%
FDP: 6%
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
Which of course will worsen the problems for the CDU, the Greens have a far left immigration policy and the FDP has a strong liberal economic string, both of which strengthen the AFD.0 -
One of the reasons I like Jim O'Neill is that he's not Gavyn Davis, who once marched into the office of the Head of Research and demanded that I be fired.Charles said:
I've never met O'Neill, FWIW. I'm just being rude about him on principle.JosiasJessop said:
Charles,Charles said:
Why?JosiasJessop said:FPT:
This is much more a problem for May than one week's set of local election results.Scott_P said:@PickardJE: Lord O'Neill resigns as infrastructure minister. Annoyed by Hinkley review, Northern Powerhouse "wobble" and grammar school policy, am told.
An average Goldmans partner who was best known for coining the phrase "BRICs" 15 years ago realises that for all the time he spent kissing ar*e, he'd been kissing the wrong one and decides not to waste his time where there is no preferment on the horizon.
Given you seem to find it necessary to mention all the great and good you meet, I'm not sure you should be the one throwing around accusations of ar*e licking.
Oh, and how's the Garden Bridge going?0 -
A Jamaica coalition, headed by Ali G?williamglenn said:
A Jamaica coalition would just about work if the SPD refused to deal with the AfD, which would certainly be the case.FF43 said:
Any coalition except a continuation of the CDU/SPD grand alliance, for which the numbers currently only barely stack up, must necessarily include AfDAndyJS said:Infratest dimap:
CDU/CSU: 32%
SPD: 22%
AfD: 16%
Green: 12%
Left: 8%
FDP: 6%
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
Wicked!0 -
I would happily be rude about Gavyn Davies; Jim I am sure is absolutely lovely (for a Goldman Sachs alumni)rcs1000 said:
One of the reasons I like Jim O'Neill is that he's not Gavyn Davis, who once marched into the office of the Head of Research and demanded that I be fired.Charles said:
I've never met O'Neill, FWIW. I'm just being rude about him on principle.JosiasJessop said:
Charles,Charles said:
Why?JosiasJessop said:FPT:
This is much more a problem for May than one week's set of local election results.Scott_P said:@PickardJE: Lord O'Neill resigns as infrastructure minister. Annoyed by Hinkley review, Northern Powerhouse "wobble" and grammar school policy, am told.
An average Goldmans partner who was best known for coining the phrase "BRICs" 15 years ago realises that for all the time he spent kissing ar*e, he'd been kissing the wrong one and decides not to waste his time where there is no preferment on the horizon.
Given you seem to find it necessary to mention all the great and good you meet, I'm not sure you should be the one throwing around accusations of ar*e licking.
Oh, and how's the Garden Bridge going?0 -
Alumnus!Charles said:
I would happily be rude about Gavyn Davies; Jim I am sure is absolutely lovely (for a Goldman Sachs alumni)rcs1000 said:
One of the reasons I like Jim O'Neill is that he's not Gavyn Davis, who once marched into the office of the Head of Research and demanded that I be fired.Charles said:
I've never met O'Neill, FWIW. I'm just being rude about him on principle.JosiasJessop said:
Charles,Charles said:
Why?JosiasJessop said:FPT:
This is much more a problem for May than one week's set of local election results.Scott_P said:@PickardJE: Lord O'Neill resigns as infrastructure minister. Annoyed by Hinkley review, Northern Powerhouse "wobble" and grammar school policy, am told.
An average Goldmans partner who was best known for coining the phrase "BRICs" 15 years ago realises that for all the time he spent kissing ar*e, he'd been kissing the wrong one and decides not to waste his time where there is no preferment on the horizon.
Given you seem to find it necessary to mention all the great and good you meet, I'm not sure you should be the one throwing around accusations of ar*e licking.
Oh, and how's the Garden Bridge going?0 -
With all the build up on BBC2 from 1100...Sunil_Prasannan said:
The result of the election will be announced at the Leadership Conference on Saturday 24 September 2016. The event will be broadcast live on labour.org.uk and on Labour's Facebook page from 11:45am.Speedy said:By the way what time are the results of the Labour leadership election due tomorrow ?
http://www.labour.org.uk/pages/labour-party-leadership-election-20160 -
His name is Legion, for he is many.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Alumnus!Charles said:
I would happily be rude about Gavyn Davies; Jim I am sure is absolutely lovely (for a Goldman Sachs alumni)rcs1000 said:
One of the reasons I like Jim O'Neill is that he's not Gavyn Davis, who once marched into the office of the Head of Research and demanded that I be fired.Charles said:
I've never met O'Neill, FWIW. I'm just being rude about him on principle.JosiasJessop said:
Charles,Charles said:
Why?JosiasJessop said:FPT:
This is much more a problem for May than one week's set of local election results.Scott_P said:@PickardJE: Lord O'Neill resigns as infrastructure minister. Annoyed by Hinkley review, Northern Powerhouse "wobble" and grammar school policy, am told.
An average Goldmans partner who was best known for coining the phrase "BRICs" 15 years ago realises that for all the time he spent kissing ar*e, he'd been kissing the wrong one and decides not to waste his time where there is no preferment on the horizon.
Given you seem to find it necessary to mention all the great and good you meet, I'm not sure you should be the one throwing around accusations of ar*e licking.
Oh, and how's the Garden Bridge going?0 -
Was his request granted?rcs1000 said:One of the reasons I like Jim O'Neill is that he's not Gavyn Davis, who once marched into the office of the Head of Research and demanded that I be fired.
0 -
Sam Coates
I know people in Whitehall baffled that Ed Llewellyn took a political peerage while also being lined up for Paris. Does he ever vote?0 -
I see that she has hit back with "untrue" and the cheeky person at eyespy has replied that she was so quick she must hardly ever be off the phone!PlatoSaid said:Umm
EyeSpy
After media hype + government response, sad to see @lynbrownmp texting & driving on Upton Lane at 14:200 -
Thanks.Sunil_Prasannan said:
The result of the election will be announced at the Leadership Conference on Saturday 24 September 2016. The event will be broadcast live on labour.org.uk and on Labour's Facebook page from 11:45am.Speedy said:By the way what time are the results of the Labour leadership election due tomorrow ?
http://www.labour.org.uk/pages/labour-party-leadership-election-2016
Speculation is already rife that Corbyn won by around 65%:
https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/779240792426708993
In which case I have the Headline ready:
"LABOUR SAVED FROM SAVING LABOUR"
Which is ironic, but entirely accurate as Owen Smith and his Saving Labour camp proved to be absolutely 100% crap, I can only imagine the carnage if those people ran Labour (I have the suspicion that they did ran Labour in the 2007-2010 period).
Compared to them Corbyn looks like the Duke of Wellington.0 -
That's right, and it's a reason to be a bit wary of the current polls too. A lot of young people finally did register for the referendum, and mostly voted too. The polls are heavily tweaked on the assumption that they won't in a GE. There is a danger with poll tweaks that they're always fighting the last war.ThreeQuidder said:
The referendum polling failure was, I think, more down to the fact that people who don't vote but said they would broke with tradition and actually did.0 -
The Twitter user-interface is quite spectacularly bad. Searching is a complete no-no; whenever I've tried it; it has produced the most baffling results most of which bear no relation at all to the search. The screen is absurdly cluttered with junk, almost as bad as LinkedIn. I've never been able to figure out how to get a sane font size.JosiasJessop said:
If Twitter had a better interface I might even be able to find it ...0 -
From the smelling salts it seems as if Corbyn is destined for 50%+ of the eligible vote.
Which is an complete and absolute mandate.0 -
@nunununu said:
Hi, what was that website that showed how people are voting based on party registration in North Carolina?Alistair said:
Yup, you have to pay careful attention to whether polls are reporting Registered Voters, All Respondents, Likely Voters etc as their result.rottenborough said:
Can't you register on the day in some US states?Alistair said:
http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/
Dem returns still ahead, by this time in 2012 Republican returns had overtaken.0 -
Mr. Pulpstar, indeed.
But then, the first hour after 10pm on 23 June had estimates of a 10 point victory for Remain. I suspect the Labour rumours are likelier to be true, but they're not yet chiselled in stone.0 -
Didn't the LibDems gain in May of this year?IanB2 said:
I think they will gain but the question is by how much. The real challenge they face is that six years of losses have hit their banks of activists, councillors and local funding, so it is hard for them to step up to win a raft of wards at the same time, even if we assume that the political prospects are more positive. Having lots of new members will help with this, but the benefits of experienced campaigners, councillors with a profile and contacts, and the money that being elected brings in are hard to quickly replace.kle4 said:
My recollection in previous years has been the LDs held up well even won in many individual by-elections, but still got smashed in the batch elections in May. Next year will be interesting. In Wiltshire where I am in 2013 the LDs increased their seats by a few despite dropping masses of votes (and moving from second place in like 50 seats to second in about 10), it'll be interesting if now we are out of coalition government and May seems to be wanting to disassociate herself with anything Cameroon, whether the vote increases.IanB2 said:
Just a reminder that most council seats are determined in batches every four years. May 2017 will be interesting.TCPoliticalBetting said:
They think they are on their way back after gaining 18 seats in 4 months. Ignoring the fact that they are still under 2,000 seats. At their peak they had 5,000. At 100 seat gains a year it will take them 30 years to get back to where they once were.IanB2 said:
Why? Hope is to LibDems as blood is to vampires. Or something like that, anyway.TCPoliticalBetting said:It is the hope that will kill the Lib Dems.
0 -
That can be true.edmundintokyo said:
Secrets that a few dozen people know about are the kind of thing that prediction markets are very efficient at pricing in, which is an argument against betting on this unless you're in on them too...
I think more often than not though, these *secrets* give the betting markets value.
People privilege their own *insider* information and can be pretty bad at assigning a probability to the credibility of that information.
In a fairly low liquidity betting market, a wealthy overeager occasional punter who believes what one of their bullshitting friends said in the pub can create value for those betting on only publicly available info.0 -
For general USA early voting stuff
https://twitter.com/electproject / www.electproject.org
is a great source0 -
The election is now only 43 days away, and early voting has started - this improves both the return, and reduces the risk of backing Crumpton.Pong said:
That can be true.edmundintokyo said:
Secrets that a few dozen people know about are the kind of thing that prediction markets are very efficient at pricing in, which is an argument against betting on this unless you're in on them too...
I think more often than not though, these *secrets* give the betting markets value.
People privilege their own *insider* information and can be pretty bad at assigning a probability to the credibility of that information.
It's a different situation to say 3 months ago.0 -
Mr Memory
Assuming he takes up his peerage soon, Edward Llewellyn will be the 1st serving Ambassador to France to be a peer since Lord Tyrrell in 1934 https://t.co/tq7I89ZgCB0 -
Matthew Goodwin
Support for banning the burka in UK (YouGov):
Remainers 40%
London 51%
Nationally 57%
North 63%
Conservatives 66%
Leavers 78%
Ukippers 84%0 -
The only real surprise there is multi-culti London at 51%.PlatoSaid said:Matthew Goodwin
Support for banning the burka in UK (YouGov):0 -
There look to be three political1 shorties about at the moment
Corbyn to win
Trump or Clinton POTUS
Con HOLD Witney
Which of those should be the shortest priced, discuss.0 -
This is pretty much why I use a third-party app for Twitter.Richard_Nabavi said:
The Twitter user-interface is quite spectacularly bad. Searching is a complete no-no; whenever I've tried it; it has produced the most baffling results most of which bear no relation at all to the search. The screen is absurdly cluttered with junk, almost as bad as LinkedIn. I've never been able to figure out how to get a sane font size.JosiasJessop said:
If Twitter had a better interface I might even be able to find it ...0 -
Corby, as the votes are already cast and part counted (any pending election having a small probability of the truly unexpected event), and the rumours are confirming the polls.Pulpstar said:There look to be three political1 shorties about at the moment
Corbyn to win
Trump or Clinton POTUS
Con HOLD Witney
Which of those should be the shortest priced, discuss.0 -
Trump or Clinton POTUS should be the shortest price. No chance of anyone else.Pulpstar said:There look to be three political1 shorties about at the moment
Corbyn to win
Trump or Clinton POTUS
Con HOLD Witney
Which of those should be the shortest priced, discuss.
Edit: Although I've overlooked Ian's point below... Corbyn FTW.0 -
A word of caution, Romney thought he won in 2012 based on the early voting returns.Alistair said:For general USA early voting stuff
https://twitter.com/electproject / www.electproject.org
is a great source
With that out of the way, I can't see how Hillary loses this election as long as she is marginally more popular than Trump and a majority of americans are scared as hell of him.
Trump has still never lead nationally, and he has to be leading nationally by 2 to win Wisconsin and perhaps Colorado and of course the election.
A majority of americans think that Trump is going to use nukes, that's how scary he is, a majority of voters actually believes that Trump will bring the apocalypse if elected.
In public opinion he is like Frankenstein's monster, how can he convince people that he is not a monster in just 40 days ?0 -
POTUS (subject to the exact terms of the bet). The rules of that contest practically exclude anyone else from winning. Failing that, Corbyn (rumours of result after the votes have been counted have been wrong before, wasn't there a Scottish by election where the loser was 1.01 when the returning officer took the stage?)Pulpstar said:There look to be three political1 shorties about at the moment
Corbyn to win
Trump or Clinton POTUS
Con HOLD Witney
Which of those should be the shortest priced, discuss.0 -
Yes. They could both stand down, be arrested, or get shot, before polling day. Or the winner runs into one of the same before inaugration. Or a scandal and freak third party landslide. Or something even more unexpected that I haven't got the energy to think of, lying here in the afternoon sun.williamglenn said:
Trump or Clinton POTUS should be the shortest price. No chance of anyone else.Pulpstar said:There look to be three political1 shorties about at the moment
Corbyn to win
Trump or Clinton POTUS
Con HOLD Witney
Which of those should be the shortest priced, discuss.
Edit: Although I've overlooked Ian's point below... Corbyn FTW.0 -
May have been mentioned, but Larry Sanders is to fight Witney for Greens:
https://twitter.com/LarrySandersPPC0 -
To be fair, it was Gavyn's assistant who wanted me fired, and I think he only went into Robert Morris's office so he could tell his assistant that he tried to get me fired.Richard_Nabavi said:
Was his request granted?rcs1000 said:One of the reasons I like Jim O'Neill is that he's not Gavyn Davis, who once marched into the office of the Head of Research and demanded that I be fired.
For the record, no I was not fired. However, I was moved from a cubicle to an office to ensure no repeat of the problem.0 -
His tweets are pretty much all change.org or 38degrees petitions.rottenborough said:May have been mentioned, but Larry Sanders is to fight Witney for Greens:
https://twitter.com/LarrySandersPPC0 -
On Betfair you can back trump for POTUS at 3.1 and lay the next president being male at 2.80
-
Didn't they poll Lefties?PlatoSaid said:Matthew Goodwin
Support for banning the burka in UK (YouGov):
Remainers 40%
London 51%
Nationally 57%
North 63%
Conservatives 66%
Leavers 78%
Ukippers 84%0 -
On Sept 11th I thought (and said on here) that it was Trump's election to lose. But after a week of the worst possible news cycle for Clinton it is clear I underestimated the American people's distaste for Trump.Speedy said:
A word of caution, Romney thought he won in 2012 based on the early voting returns.Alistair said:For general USA early voting stuff
https://twitter.com/electproject / www.electproject.org
is a great source
With that out of the way, I can't see how Hillary loses this election as long as she is marginally more popular than Trump and a majority of americans are scared as hell of him.
Barring, obviously, Clinton collapsing again it would take the debates, and a miracle in those debates, for Trump to win - maybe the oft touted pivot to centre?0 -
It would probably help if he didn't publically say stuff about how he wants to use nukes. its all self inflicted.Speedy said:
A word of caution, Romney thought he won in 2012 based on the early voting returns.Alistair said:For general USA early voting stuff
https://twitter.com/electproject / www.electproject.org
is a great source
With that out of the way, I can't see how Hillary loses this election as long as she is marginally more popular than Trump and a majority of americans are scared as hell of him.
Trump has still never lead nationally, and he has to be leading nationally by 2 to win Wisconsin and perhaps Colorado and of course the election.
A majority of americans think that Trump is going to use nukes, that's how scary he is, a majority of voters actually believes that Trump will bring the apocalypse if elected.
In public opinion he is like Frankenstein's monster, how can he convince people that he is not a monster in just 40 days ?0 -
@CycleFree
I do wonder where this neglect of the North meme comes from. I visit Leeds regularly, Manchester occasionally, and Liverpool when I have to. All three cities have had massive amounts of money poured into them over the past twenty years or so. OK, Manchester has the advantage of the PIRA's rebuild the city kick start scheme but even so the difference and improvement between each of the city centres now compared to the late eighties is phenomenal.
Compare and contrast with places in the South. Brighton has barely changed since I first got a place there in the mid-seventies (except there are fewer curry houses). Portsmouth bar one or two builds in still the dump that it always was, Southampton ditto. I could go on with other examples and point out that outside London investment in infrastructure has barely occurred for decades despite a very large growth in population.
I don't see this neglect of the North bit at all.0 -
-
She loses this election if nothing changes except that two voters in every hundred switch sides to Trump between now and November 8th. In fact, it's two voters in every hundred in any one of just three states That's well within the typical margin of swing over that time period.Speedy said:With that out of the way, I can't see how Hillary loses this election as long as she is marginally more popular than Trump and a majority of americans are scared as hell of him.
She's in the better position, certainly, but it's by no means impregnable.0 -
One thing I would note that is very intersting is that after and initial levle of resiliance post Sept 11th in the LA Times tracker Clintion is steadily losing support with the 65+ crowd even as she regains support with the under 65s.
Maybe the oldies will win it for Trump.0 -
Avast, Mr Llama! Portsmouth now has the Spinnaker tower and Gunwharf Quays shopping outlet.HurstLlama said:@CycleFree
I do wonder where this neglect of the North meme comes from. I visit Leeds regularly, Manchester occasionally, and Liverpool when I have to. All three cities have had massive amounts of money poured into them over the past twenty years or so. OK, Manchester has the advantage of the PIRA's rebuild the city kick start scheme but even so the difference and improvement between each of the city centres now compared to the late eighties is phenomenal.
Compare and contrast with places in the South. Brighton has barely changed since I first got a place there in the mid-seventies (except there are fewer curry houses). Portsmouth bar one or two builds in still the dump that it always was, Southampton ditto. I could go on with other examples and point out that outside London investment in infrastructure has barely occurred for decades despite a very large growth in population.
I don't see this neglect of the North bit at all.0 -
Does everyone who think he might use nukes intend to vote against him - or are some more likely to vote for him as a result?Speedy said:
A word of caution, Romney thought he won in 2012 based on the early voting returns.Alistair said:For general USA early voting stuff
https://twitter.com/electproject / www.electproject.org
is a great source
With that out of the way, I can't see how Hillary loses this election as long as she is marginally more popular than Trump and a majority of americans are scared as hell of him.
Trump has still never lead nationally, and he has to be leading nationally by 2 to win Wisconsin and perhaps Colorado and of course the election.
A majority of americans think that Trump is going to use nukes, that's how scary he is, a majority of voters actually believes that Trump will bring the apocalypse if elected.
In public opinion he is like Frankenstein's monster, how can he convince people that he is not a monster in just 40 days ?
How could Vote Leave possibly convince the people of the UK that Brexit wouldnt be a disaster in just 40 days?0 -
It is only a 1.17% yield due to those being two seperate (And seperately commissioned markets)IanB2 said:On Betfair you can back trump for POTUS at 3.1 and lay the next president being male at 2.8
Backing Trump and backing Hillary yields over 4%.
All the "next" choices in the event of POTUS are men too (Kaine, Pence, Sanders, Biden) - so both bets have the same disaster risk.
Warren/Stein is not a 3% chance.0 -
I have to ask...what did you do to provoke this ire?rcs1000 said:
To be fair, it was Gavyn's assistant who wanted me fired, and I think he only went into Robert Morris's office so he could tell his assistant that he tried to get me fired.Richard_Nabavi said:
Was his request granted?rcs1000 said:One of the reasons I like Jim O'Neill is that he's not Gavyn Davis, who once marched into the office of the Head of Research and demanded that I be fired.
For the record, no I was not fired. However, I was moved from a cubicle to an office to ensure no repeat of the problem.0 -
In the lull before the storm of labour's crowning of Jeremy tomorrow I think it is more than probable that Hammond will strenghten the Government's commitment to the Northern Powerhouse and regional devolution but will lay to rest the control to elected, almost certainly, labour mayors. I may be wrong but why would the conservative party hand big roles to the likes of Burnham and Rotherham.
Just listened to Fysal Islam on Sky comment on his interview with Martin Schultz when he said the interest of German car workers needs to be balanced with the interest of the Poles. This from a German politician blinded by his own Arch Federalists views.
There can only be one result in this and that is a hard Brexit and then sit back and watch as civil war breaks out between Nations and the unelected Commission. As was said yesterday the EU is beginning to experience problems with trade deals without the UK as a member.
The idea these pompous destructive Commissioners can stop us entering trade deals negotiations before Brexit is beyond parady. Junckers and Schultz threats will only anger the UK and make us more determined to leave the whole anti democratic EU charade behind as we embrace the World and look over our shoulder at the inevitable demise of the EU.0 -
Seems to me Greens in second place might not be unthinkable?rottenborough said:May have been mentioned, but Larry Sanders is to fight Witney for Greens:
https://twitter.com/LarrySandersPPC0 -
Probably because hard socio-economic data - land/property values, unemployment rates, average incomes - don't align with Mr Llama's portrait of a booming north looking down at the economic wasteland of Brighton?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Avast, Mr Llama! Portsmouth now has the Spinnaker tower and Gunwharf Quays shopping outlet.HurstLlama said:@CycleFree
I do wonder where this neglect of the North meme comes from. I visit Leeds regularly, Manchester occasionally, and Liverpool when I have to. All three cities have had massive amounts of money poured into them over the past twenty years or so. OK, Manchester has the advantage of the PIRA's rebuild the city kick start scheme but even so the difference and improvement between each of the city centres now compared to the late eighties is phenomenal.
Compare and contrast with places in the South. Brighton has barely changed since I first got a place there in the mid-seventies (except there are fewer curry houses). Portsmouth bar one or two builds in still the dump that it always was, Southampton ditto. I could go on with other examples and point out that outside London investment in infrastructure has barely occurred for decades despite a very large growth in population.
I don't see this neglect of the North bit at all.0 -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunfermline_and_West_Fife_by-election,_2006ThreeQuidder said:
POTUS (subject to the exact terms of the bet). The rules of that contest practically exclude anyone else from winning. Failing that, Corbyn (rumours of result after the votes have been counted have been wrong before, wasn't there a Scottish by election where the loser was 1.01 when the returning officer took the stage?)Pulpstar said:There look to be three political1 shorties about at the moment
Corbyn to win
Trump or Clinton POTUS
Con HOLD Witney
Which of those should be the shortest priced, discuss.0 -
The Corbys and the Greenies are after the same peoplePaul_Bedfordshire said:
Seems to me Greens in second place might not be unthinkable?rottenborough said:May have been mentioned, but Larry Sanders is to fight Witney for Greens:
https://twitter.com/LarrySandersPPC0 -
Grim, perplexing story related to the Pirate meltdown:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/sep/22/gerwald-claus-brunner-german-pirate-party-politician-confessed-before-suicide0 -
Didn't someone on here say that the Lab candidate is rabidly anti-Corbyn?IanB2 said:
The Corbys and the Greenies are after the same peoplePaul_Bedfordshire said:
Seems to me Greens in second place might not be unthinkable?rottenborough said:May have been mentioned, but Larry Sanders is to fight Witney for Greens:
https://twitter.com/LarrySandersPPC0
