politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn has clearly won – the big question is the size of hi
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn has clearly won – the big question is the size of his victory
According to punters at least there is absolutely no doubt about who will be announced as winner of the LAB leadership contest on Saturday. The controversial incumbent looks set for victory and clearly his supporters will be hoping that his vote share is above or equal to the 59% of 2015.
Comments
-
First, like Corbyn.0
-
I do remember Remain hitting around 90% on Betfair
0 -
I was robbed...0
-
Just seen on 538 why Ohio is leaning Trump and Pennselvania is in Hillary's firewall:
State College Non college
Ohio 37.3% 44.5%
Penn 44.4% 35.9%
an eight point gap between non college educated white voters, leads to a big gap in voting differences.0 -
The Kuenssberg, quote is just utterly, utterly, depressing. He has learned not one single thing since taking office. If anything he has regressed. Surrounding himself with true believers from his cult, is doing him no good, but he is far too stupid and easily manipulated he can't see it.0
-
most on here have already found this but this is fun to play around with
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/0 -
FPT: Witney
Eh, leaving aside the problem of hanging everything on one constituency I'd say vote share is more important than place.
Sub 5= disaster
5 - 10= status quo
10- 15= good growth
15- 20= Excellent fightback
20+= Major gain0 -
The man is incapable of learning. He has learnt nothing since about 1978.saddened said:The Kuenssberg, quote is just utterly, utterly, depressing. He has learned not one single thing since taking office. If anything he has regressed. Surrounding himself with true believers from his cult, is doing him no good, but he is far too stupid and easily manipulated he can't see it.
0 -
I think it'll be close to 70-30 for Corbyn.0
-
Oh, cheeky!Rogueywon said:I do remember Remain hitting around 90% on Betfair
0 -
That has puzzled me, too.nunu said:Just seen on 538 why Ohio is leaning Trump and Pennselvania is in Hillary's firewall:
State College Non college
Ohio 37.3% 44.5%
Penn 44.4% 35.9%
an eight point gap between non college educated white voters, leads to a big gap in voting differences.
RCP now has Trump on 266-272 Clinton, but Florida is on a knife edge and the remaining States look okay for her.0 -
Ohio also doesn't have as huge a super-metro area as Philadelphia and its suburbs (and in the US, like everywhere, the white working-class in big cities are more likely to stick with the traditional centre-left party than white working-class voters elsewhere).nunu said:Just seen on 538 why Ohio is leaning Trump and Pennselvania is in Hillary's firewall:
State College Non college
Ohio 37.3% 44.5%
Penn 44.4% 35.9%
an eight point gap between non college educated white voters, leads to a big gap in voting differences.0 -
Tories in power until at least 2025. That's what Corbyn winning means.0
-
Labour, condemned to the Corbyn of history.0
-
Prominent Labour MPs are set to reject a return to the front bench if Jeremy Corbyn wins Saturday’s leadership battle and fails to accept elections to the shadow cabinet.
Corbyn’s team have conducted a series of meetings over the past four weeks in a bid to persuade rebel MPs to join his team and end the doubling-up of jobs that has been necessary since the rash of resignations that followed the Brexit vote.
But many say they have either have not been approached or would refuse to serve without a mandate from their colleagues in the parliamentary Labour party (PLP) – and are readying themselves for what one called “coexistence” with Corbyn from the backbenches.
“I would be surprised if he gets more than a dozen,” said one senior party source, adding that there were more than 60 unfilled posts.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/22/labour-mp-prepare-coexist-jeremy-corbyn-leadership-backbench0 -
Turning out quite fun, this, and I don't even watch GBBO. As has been noted, the basic format is pretty darn simple, and we've seen with Top Gear you are more than able to do essentially the same thing with the same people and call it something else, so why not with GBBO?Scott_P said:0 -
Over 90%, to be fair that was after Farage had conceded defeat.Rogueywon said:I do remember Remain hitting around 90% on Betfair
0 -
LOL.Jonathan said:Labour, condemned to the Corbyn of history.
But we are the unions, that never have spoken yet.0 -
Clearly most will rally round. What's the alternative? Most won't have the stomach for continued defiance, at least not immediately, they dare not actually break away, others may well truly feel that since the members have confirmed they are bonkers this is the way it has to be, or that Corbyn's dominance proves he is, despite appearances, up the job, and a bunch others will pretend they never said he was no good or his ideas bad, because unity is more important than their own consistency.0
-
I think I posted the other day that Ch4 had made one of the biggest cockups in broadcasting contract history by failing to secure the presenters before announcing the big win. Whoops.kle4 said:
Turning out quite fun, this, and I don't even watch GBBO. As has been noted, the basic format is pretty darn simple, and we've seen with Top Gear you are more than able to do essentially the same thing with the same people and call it something else, so why not with GBBO?Scott_P said:0 -
Broadly true, but in fairness, he has actually gotten marginally better presentationally in the last year, he's improved a bit in how he has played the game on a few occasions. Not often and not well, but occasionally.rottenborough said:
The man is incapable of learning. He has learnt nothing since about 1978.saddened said:The Kuenssberg, quote is just utterly, utterly, depressing. He has learned not one single thing since taking office. If anything he has regressed. Surrounding himself with true believers from his cult, is doing him no good, but he is far too stupid and easily manipulated he can't see it.
0 -
I also think this opens the door to their privatisation. If they want to compete with the public broadcaster on commercial terms (money) then they should be a fully commercial broadcaster.rottenborough said:
I think I posted the other day that Ch4 had made one of the biggest cockups in broadcasting contract history by failing to secure the presenters before announcing the big win. Whoops.kle4 said:
Turning out quite fun, this, and I don't even watch GBBO. As has been noted, the basic format is pretty darn simple, and we've seen with Top Gear you are more than able to do essentially the same thing with the same people and call it something else, so why not with GBBO?Scott_P said:0 -
33.3% of the electorate are wwc non college and the higher a state is above that figure generally the more likely it is to vote for Trump and the lower it is below that figure the more likely it is to vote for Hillary so Pennsylvania is almost bang on the US average (it actually has 33.4% wwc non college educated) and hence is one of the pivotal states of the electionnunu said:Just seen on 538 why Ohio is leaning Trump and Pennselvania is in Hillary's firewall:
State College Non college
Ohio 37.3% 44.5%
Penn 44.4% 35.9%
an eight point gap between non college educated white voters, leads to a big gap in voting differences.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/0 -
FPT
I suppose you could make the case that black policemen have become normalised to expect and stereotype black people as criminals.TCPoliticalBetting said:BBC News today also featuring the police shootings of black people. Note that tonight's 10pm news said it was a matter of race, but omitted the fact that in Charlotte the policeman who fired the shot is also black.
Whether the (innocent) black person who was shot in Charlotte was merely exercising his constitutional second ammendment rights, or the gun was planted, it was a case of trigger happy cops, and another dead black person.
Though of course policing in a gun crazy America would make anyone a little twitchy with the trigger finger.0 -
Disgruntled Labour MPs have the perfect role model to follow. Just do what Corbyn did under Kinnock and Blair.0
-
with those kind of numbers maybe it shouldn't be seen as a rust belt state anymore more a north east state? I don't know.Sean_F said:
That has puzzled me, too.nunu said:Just seen on 538 why Ohio is leaning Trump and Pennselvania is in Hillary's firewall:
State College Non college
Ohio 37.3% 44.5%
Penn 44.4% 35.9%
an eight point gap between non college educated white voters, leads to a big gap in voting differences.
RCP now has Trump on 266-272 Clinton, but Florida is on a knife edge and the remaining States look okay for her.0 -
In his interview last night Corbyn praised Foot but said he would do 'even better', so Corbyn's benchmark it would seem is beating the 209 seats and 28% Foot got in 19830
-
The first or second time he did?TheScreamingEagles said:
Over 90%, to be fair that was after Farage had conceded defeat.Rogueywon said:I do remember Remain hitting around 90% on Betfair
0 -
Whoopee!kle4 said:
Broadly true, but in fairness, he has actually gotten marginally better presentationally in the last year, he's improved a bit in how he has played the game on a few occasions. Not often and not well, but occasionally.rottenborough said:
The man is incapable of learning. He has learnt nothing since about 1978.saddened said:The Kuenssberg, quote is just utterly, utterly, depressing. He has learned not one single thing since taking office. If anything he has regressed. Surrounding himself with true believers from his cult, is doing him no good, but he is far too stupid and easily manipulated he can't see it.
0 -
If the rebels had an ounce of sense they would recognise that if Corby wins confortably then they need to wait until he loses in a GE. They have gained absolutely nothing from a whole summer on fruitless manoeuvre.0
-
Jonathan said:
Disgruntled Labour MPs have the perfect role model to follow. Just do what Corbyn did under Kinnock and Blair.
0 -
I tempted to say 'Oh sod off', but in a nice way.SeanT said:Just been invited to the Greatest Food Festival in the World (according to Heston Blumenthal), on the Margaret River, Western Australia
http://www.gourmetescape.com.au/
It means I'll miss part of late November in England.
Tricky decision. Whaddaya think PB? Stay or go?0 -
First time, around 10.10pm on June 23rdScrapheap_as_was said:
The first or second time he did?TheScreamingEagles said:
Over 90%, to be fair that was after Farage had conceded defeat.Rogueywon said:I do remember Remain hitting around 90% on Betfair
0 -
Disgraceful....yet another thread goes by and not on GBBO....given the amount of coverage on the BBC, I have to conclude it is the most important story in the world.
Oh and last like Owen Thingy...0 -
Do itSeanT said:Just been invited to the Greatest Food Festival in the World (according to Heston Blumenthal), on the Margaret River, Western Australia
http://www.gourmetescape.com.au/
It means I'll miss part of late November in England.
Tricky decision. Whaddaya think PB? Stay or go?0 -
One of my Sunday thread's talks about the GBBO, it also contains possibly my most mind bleaching awful PB headlineFrancisUrquhart said:Disgraceful....yet another thread goes by and not on GBBO....given the amount of coverage on the BBC, I have to conclude it is the most important story in the world.
Oh and last like Owen Thingy...0 -
Not saying that's good for anyone who wants Labour to win, but I'm surprised he has shown marginal capacity for flexibility at all.rottenborough said:
Whoopee!kle4 said:
Broadly true, but in fairness, he has actually gotten marginally better presentationally in the last year, he's improved a bit in how he has played the game on a few occasions. Not often and not well, but occasionally.rottenborough said:
The man is incapable of learning. He has learnt nothing since about 1978.saddened said:The Kuenssberg, quote is just utterly, utterly, depressing. He has learned not one single thing since taking office. If anything he has regressed. Surrounding himself with true believers from his cult, is doing him no good, but he is far too stupid and easily manipulated he can't see it.
0 -
Corbyn is damaged goods for the country at large. Labour can't convincingly unite around him, too much water under the bridge. The best thing for PLP now is drop all opposition, on the condition with Corbyn that he stands down in 2017/18 or so (call it health issues) to be replaced by his chosen successor (or a battle of fresh Corbynistas only). PLP unites round new Corynista for the GE 2020, giving Corbynism a fair hearing, probable (but not inevitable) defeat.0
-
The only plausible alternative to Corbyn now before the next general election is McDonnellDavidL said:
I agree. Smith was a remarkable find: someone even more incompetent and useless than Corbyn. Who would have thought that even possible let alone that that would be Labours alternative.Danny565 said:I think it'll be close to 70-30 for Corbyn.
0 -
Around the same time that, separately, each of IDS, Gove and Boris did the same...TheScreamingEagles said:
First time, around 10.10pm on June 23rdScrapheap_as_was said:
The first or second time he did?TheScreamingEagles said:
Over 90%, to be fair that was after Farage had conceded defeat.Rogueywon said:I do remember Remain hitting around 90% on Betfair
0 -
"Sadly for everyone" Sounds like even Jeremy doesn't like Jeremy. Jeremy spoke in class today ...0
-
He will lead Labour.. to a thumping defeat.0
-
Go. Some of Australia's very best wines come from Margaret River and thereabouts.SeanT said:Just been invited to the Greatest Food Festival in the World (according to Heston Blumenthal), on the Margaret River, Western Australia
http://www.gourmetescape.com.au/
It means I'll miss part of late November in England.
Tricky decision. Whaddaya think PB? Stay or go?0 -
@Casino.....please give me one personal insult I have labelled at you.....
I don't think I have ever made one individual, unpleasant, personal comment to another, individual poster on the twelve years or so I have posted here. I once said to Plato that I find politically ideological right wing women sexually repellant or repulsive or both (which is true on my part but each to his own)...which she took quite badly...or maybe something obliquely to seanT (I think I've called him a narcissist which is stating the bleeding obvious)- but my insults never play the person......
0 -
Also FPT
I think that is more or less correct. The effect of globalisation (and the free marketeers of Brexit are in the driving seat) is to reduce inter-country inequality at the price of increasing intra-country inequality.HYUFD said:
Actually Leaverstan now does not just include much of the provincial UK but the southern and rustbelt states of the US voting for Trump, most of the depressed industrial areas of France voting for Le Pen etc. Indeed London, Paris and New York and LA now have more in common with each other than London does with the North East, Paris with the Pas de Calais and New York with West Virginia and Ohio. Never have the west's most prosperous cities and their suburbs been so divorced from the rest of the countryfoxinsoxuk said:
So we are joining the Third world? Or at least Leaverstan is....Big_G_NorthWales said:I know you have to treat the Daily Express as the ultimate Brexit paper but they are reporting Developing Countries and others are losing interest in trade deals with the EU on UK's exit. Very interesting if true and when you think about it it does make sense
Already the wealthy Chinese students that I pass in the streets of Leicester have more in common with the British undergraduates, than the British undergraduates have with the benighted of Benefit Street.0 -
but you have to remember Clinto is winning a group (white college educated) that Repubs normally win.HYUFD said:
33.3% of the electorate are wwc non college and the higher a state is above that figure generally the more likely it is to vote for Trump and the lower it is below that figure the more likely it is to vote for Hillary so Pennsylvania is almost bang on the US average (it actually has 33.4% wwc non college educated) and hence is one of the pivotal states of the electionnunu said:Just seen on 538 why Ohio is leaning Trump and Pennselvania is in Hillary's firewall:
State College Non college
Ohio 37.3% 44.5%
Penn 44.4% 35.9%
an eight point gap between non college educated white voters, leads to a big gap in voting differences.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/0 -
Ah, well, that is different. Given those choices, even though I have not been to either Rome (amazingly enough) or Western Australia and I have been to Lascaux, I'd choose Lascaux.SeanT said:
I'd have forgiven you for saying "Do one" instead.TheScreamingEagles said:
Do itSeanT said:Just been invited to the Greatest Food Festival in the World (according to Heston Blumenthal), on the Margaret River, Western Australia
http://www.gourmetescape.com.au/
It means I'll miss part of late November in England.
Tricky decision. Whaddaya think PB? Stay or go?
The only problem with saying Yes to the Oz trip is that I either have to give up an exclusive view of the new Lascaux exhibition in the Dordogne, or a luxury trip to Rome, dining at the Hassler etc.
My life is one endless series of dilemmas. I yearn for simplicity.
*cough*
You look at those 30,000 year old paintings and know that early human was every bit as intellectual as modern man, just with a bit less technology.
Of course, no good wine or food in the Dardogne (cough).0 -
rottenborough said:
I think I posted the other day that Ch4 had made one of the biggest cockups in broadcasting contract history by failing to secure the presenters before announcing the big win. Whoops.kle4 said:
Turning out quite fun, this, and I don't even watch GBBO. As has been noted, the basic format is pretty darn simple, and we've seen with Top Gear you are more than able to do essentially the same thing with the same people and call it something else, so why not with GBBO?Scott_P said:
I waste too much time, but I actually checked Channel 4's boilerplate contract. There's a line where you have to secure the services of specified cast members or enter "Intentionally deleted" if none are specified. Failing to do so can result in Channel 4 waiving payment. There could be a serious haggle and I suspect the production company is a weak position in that case.rottenborough said:
I think I posted the other day that Ch4 had made one of the biggest cockups in broadcasting contract history by failing to secure the presenters before announcing the big win. Whoops.kle4 said:
Turning out quite fun, this, and I don't even watch GBBO. As has been noted, the basic format is pretty darn simple, and we've seen with Top Gear you are more than able to do essentially the same thing with the same people and call it something else, so why not with GBBO?Scott_P said:0 -
Go if you get first class travel and 5 star hotels.SeanT said:Just been invited to the Greatest Food Festival in the World (according to Heston Blumenthal), on the Margaret River, Western Australia
http://www.gourmetescape.com.au/
It means I'll miss part of late November in England.
Tricky decision. Whaddaya think PB? Stay or go?0 -
As said about SeanT being a narcissist, I've just caught some of this thread...
He probably knows it though well enough. If he doesn't, maybe he should Wiki it?0 -
Whats that I hear...Lawyers rubbing hands....FF43 said:rottenborough said:
I think I posted the other day that Ch4 had made one of the biggest cockups in broadcasting contract history by failing to secure the presenters before announcing the big win. Whoops.kle4 said:
Turning out quite fun, this, and I don't even watch GBBO. As has been noted, the basic format is pretty darn simple, and we've seen with Top Gear you are more than able to do essentially the same thing with the same people and call it something else, so why not with GBBO?Scott_P said:
I waste too much time, but I actually checked Channel 4's boilerplate contract. There's a line where you have to secure the services of specified cast members or enter "Intentionally deleted" if none are specified. Failing to do so can result in Channel 4 waiving payment. There could be a serious haggle and I suspect the production company is a weak position in that case.rottenborough said:
I think I posted the other day that Ch4 had made one of the biggest cockups in broadcasting contract history by failing to secure the presenters before announcing the big win. Whoops.kle4 said:
Turning out quite fun, this, and I don't even watch GBBO. As has been noted, the basic format is pretty darn simple, and we've seen with Top Gear you are more than able to do essentially the same thing with the same people and call it something else, so why not with GBBO?Scott_P said:0 -
He almost lost Pontypridd in 2010, a difficult task for anyone.DavidL said:
I agree. Smith was a remarkable find: someone even more incompetent and useless than Corbyn. Who would have thought that even possible let alone that that would be Labours alternative.Danny565 said:I think it'll be close to 70-30 for Corbyn.
0 -
I gather Ken livingstone is on this week... that should help.0
-
"If the only poll of the campaign is correct Corbyn is expected to ride home with 60% plus of the votes which will surely act as a discouragement to PLP members thinking of launching another challenge next year."
Meanwhile, outside the Hard Left Bubble...
"Theresa May is more trusted than Jeremy Corbyn to tackle the most urgent problems in post-Brexit Britain, including safeguarding the NHS, according to a new poll seen exclusively by the Guardian.
Asked what politicians’ priorities should be, the top three choices in the Britain Thinks poll were safeguarding the health service, significantly reducing immigration and striking new trade deals as Britain leaves the European Union.
Theresa May was more trusted on all three issues, outpacing Corbyn on protecting the NHS by 38% to 30%. On reducing immigration, 46% of voters trusted May; just 12% said Corbyn. Britain Thinks polled 2,053 people, weighted to represent the country, as well as conducting four focus groups in Harlow and Leamington Spa."
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/22/theresa-may-more-trusted-than-jeremy-corbyn-britains-key-issues-poll
The Tories outpolling Labour on who's best for the NHS. Despite the junior doctors' strike, and a regular stream of doom-laden prophecies of impending collapse. Absolutely, totally extraordinary.
Brand loyalty is all that the Labour Party has left now. Come the next election, if Corbyn beats Michael Foot's 1983 vote share it will probably only be because of third party weakness.0 -
All sound fascinating but do get to Rome eventually if you can, looking over the Forum at night is mesmericSeanT said:
But the Lascaux painting are facsimiles (unless you managed to see the originals???). I've been invited to the previews of thisMTimT said:
Ah, well, that is different. Given those choices, even though I have not been to either Rome (amazingly enough) or Western Australia and I have been to Lascaux, I'd choose Lascaux.SeanT said:
I'd have forgiven you for saying "Do one" instead.TheScreamingEagles said:
Do itSeanT said:Just been invited to the Greatest Food Festival in the World (according to Heston Blumenthal), on the Margaret River, Western Australia
http://www.gourmetescape.com.au/
It means I'll miss part of late November in England.
Tricky decision. Whaddaya think PB? Stay or go?
The only problem with saying Yes to the Oz trip is that I either have to give up an exclusive view of the new Lascaux exhibition in the Dordogne, or a luxury trip to Rome, dining at the Hassler etc.
My life is one endless series of dilemmas. I yearn for simplicity.
*cough*
You look at those 30,000 year old paintings and know that early human was every bit as intellectual as modern man, just with a bit less technology.
Of course, no good wine or food in the Dardogne (cough).
http://www.euronews.com/2016/09/14/3d-lascaux-cave-comes-to-life
On the other hand I love cave art (and they're going to show me lots of real cave paintings as well as the Lascaux thing). Maybe I'll just *postpone* Rome....0 -
Soggy bottom or biscuit.... the latter maybe after mums net this week??TheScreamingEagles said:
One of my Sunday thread's talks about the GBBO, it also contains possibly my most mind bleaching awful PB headlineFrancisUrquhart said:Disgraceful....yet another thread goes by and not on GBBO....given the amount of coverage on the BBC, I have to conclude it is the most important story in the world.
Oh and last like Owen Thingy...0 -
The exhibit the public see are a facsimile. But at Font de Gamme (spelling?) down the road you can see the originals. Got to rush. If you have questions, you can message me and I'll get back once I have been able to dig out the details.SeanT said:
But the Lascaux painting are facsimiles (unless you managed to see the originals???). I've been invited to the previews of thisMTimT said:
Ah, well, that is different. Given those choices, even though I have not been to either Rome (amazingly enough) or Western Australia and I have been to Lascaux, I'd choose Lascaux.SeanT said:
I'd have forgiven you for saying "Do one" instead.TheScreamingEagles said:
Do itSeanT said:Just been invited to the Greatest Food Festival in the World (according to Heston Blumenthal), on the Margaret River, Western Australia
http://www.gourmetescape.com.au/
It means I'll miss part of late November in England.
Tricky decision. Whaddaya think PB? Stay or go?
The only problem with saying Yes to the Oz trip is that I either have to give up an exclusive view of the new Lascaux exhibition in the Dordogne, or a luxury trip to Rome, dining at the Hassler etc.
My life is one endless series of dilemmas. I yearn for simplicity.
*cough*
You look at those 30,000 year old paintings and know that early human was every bit as intellectual as modern man, just with a bit less technology.
Of course, no good wine or food in the Dardogne (cough).
http://www.euronews.com/2016/09/14/3d-lascaux-cave-comes-to-life
On the other hand I love cave art (and they're going to show me lots of real cave paintings as well as the Lascaux thing). Maybe I'll just *postpone* Rome....0 -
Trump is winning a group (white working class) that Democrats used to win. In fact if you took a typical Republican who voted for Ford in 1976 he would now be voting for Hillary and if you took a typical Democrat who voted for Carter in 1976 he would now be voting for Trumpnunu said:
but you have to remember Clinto is winning a group (white college educated) that Repubs normally win.HYUFD said:
33.3% of the electorate are wwc non college and the higher a state is above that figure generally the more likely it is to vote for Trump and the lower it is below that figure the more likely it is to vote for Hillary so Pennsylvania is almost bang on the US average (it actually has 33.4% wwc non college educated) and hence is one of the pivotal states of the electionnunu said:Just seen on 538 why Ohio is leaning Trump and Pennselvania is in Hillary's firewall:
State College Non college
Ohio 37.3% 44.5%
Penn 44.4% 35.9%
an eight point gap between non college educated white voters, leads to a big gap in voting differences.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_19760 -
It may reference this t shirtScrapheap_as_was said:
Soggy bottom or biscuit.... the latter maybe after mums net this week??TheScreamingEagles said:
One of my Sunday thread's talks about the GBBO, it also contains possibly my most mind bleaching awful PB headlineFrancisUrquhart said:Disgraceful....yet another thread goes by and not on GBBO....given the amount of coverage on the BBC, I have to conclude it is the most important story in the world.
Oh and last like Owen Thingy...
https://twitter.com/happymem0r1es/status/3579648348196945920 -
Never follow the advice of anyone named after a motorway service station. In any case, Australia is too far, too hot and the telly is shit.SeanT said:Just been invited to the Greatest Food Festival in the World (according to Heston Blumenthal), on the Margaret River, Western Australia
http://www.gourmetescape.com.au/
It means I'll miss part of late November in England.
Tricky decision. Whaddaya think PB? Stay or go?0 -
I had to goggle that... so soggy biscuit it is then...TheScreamingEagles said:
It may reference this t shirtScrapheap_as_was said:
Soggy bottom or biscuit.... the latter maybe after mums net this week??TheScreamingEagles said:
One of my Sunday thread's talks about the GBBO, it also contains possibly my most mind bleaching awful PB headlineFrancisUrquhart said:Disgraceful....yet another thread goes by and not on GBBO....given the amount of coverage on the BBC, I have to conclude it is the most important story in the world.
Oh and last like Owen Thingy...
https://twitter.com/happymem0r1es/status/357964834819694592
0 -
Yes it is the backlash of working class nationalism to upper middle class internationalism which really encapsulates what is going on in much of the West at presentfoxinsoxuk said:Also FPT
I think that is more or less correct. The effect of globalisation (and the free marketeers of Brexit are in the driving seat) is to reduce inter-country inequality at the price of increasing intra-country inequality.HYUFD said:
Actually Leaverstan now does not just include much of the provincial UK but the southern and rustbelt states of the US voting for Trump, most of the depressed industrial areas of France voting for Le Pen etc. Indeed London, Paris and New York and LA now have more in common with each other than London does with the North East, Paris with the Pas de Calais and New York with West Virginia and Ohio. Never have the west's most prosperous cities and their suburbs been so divorced from the rest of the countryfoxinsoxuk said:
So we are joining the Third world? Or at least Leaverstan is....Big_G_NorthWales said:I know you have to treat the Daily Express as the ultimate Brexit paper but they are reporting Developing Countries and others are losing interest in trade deals with the EU on UK's exit. Very interesting if true and when you think about it it does make sense
Already the wealthy Chinese students that I pass in the streets of Leicester have more in common with the British undergraduates, than the British undergraduates have with the benighted of Benefit Street.
0 -
Melbourne is lovely this morning...0
-
Insist on Etihad Business Studio or Lufthansa First.0
-
@SeanT: I was just in your manor - I was enjoying a pint or two in the Spread Eagle on Parkway
@DavidL (if you're still around), there is a big difference between the customs unions and the Single Market. The EU Customs Union has a common external tariff system, and makes trade deals on behalf the entire bloc. However, other than defining the area inside the bloc as tariff free, it imposes no obligations on its members. All EU states are members of the EU Customs Union, as is Turkey, which therefore benefits from tariff free trade with the EU and with the 30 odd countries the EU has trade arrangements with.
The Single Market, aka the European Economic Area, or EEA, includes the EU states, Iceland, Litchenstein and Norway. (But it does not include Turkey.) It defines a set of rules that all members use while trading with each other, in particular the principle that you cannot discriminate against other citizens or firms from other EEA countries. Members acknowledge that the ECJ is used for dispute as regards cross border trade. So (in the case of my now sold asset management business) we were allowed to sell funds domiciled in London to French customers on the same terms as a French fund manager.0 -
If the Tories win by a landslide then they are probably in until at least 2030. Even if a new and credible opposition crawls out of the rubble soon after 2020 (and that's a big if,) the Conservatives will have so many safe seats it is highly likely to take more than one election to wear down their majority.AndyJS said:Tories in power until at least 2025. That's what Corbyn winning means.
It's even possible that Labour and the broader Left will be marginalised for a generation, and the opposition will eventually emerge from a split in the Conservative Party. If the centre-Left can't deal with its crisis of message and purpose then it's entirely possible that we'll end up with two flavours of Tories as both Government and Opposition - before the parties eventually drift back into the roles of Liberal and Conservative, and it's as-you-were before Labour ever existed. Stranger things have happened...0 -
Labour gain Allergale Christchurch from Conservatives Lib Dems a good 2nd Conservatives slump to 3rd0
-
1100 Saturday morning on BBC2 for the Labvote buildup to the result announcement....0
-
Gotta be a 'shop.. or someone who looks awfully like Ken?TheScreamingEagles said:
It may reference this t shirtScrapheap_as_was said:
Soggy bottom or biscuit.... the latter maybe after mums net this week??TheScreamingEagles said:
One of my Sunday thread's talks about the GBBO, it also contains possibly my most mind bleaching awful PB headlineFrancisUrquhart said:Disgraceful....yet another thread goes by and not on GBBO....given the amount of coverage on the BBC, I have to conclude it is the most important story in the world.
Oh and last like Owen Thingy...
twitter.com/happymem0r1es/status/3579648348196945920 -
Today, at my first meeting at my new employer I described a European bank investment thus:
"X is probably the best Eurozone bank. Although I realise that is a little bit like saying that syphilis is the best STD."0 -
In the summer there barely is any Margaret River.SeanT said:
Margaret River in summer is said to be absolutely idyllic. Like a kind of empty Provence. I've never been, but travel writing friends - usually jaded - absolutely rave about it.Jonathan said:
Never follow the advice of anyone named after a motorway service station. In any case, Australia is too far, too hot and the telly is shit.SeanT said:Just been invited to the Greatest Food Festival in the World (according to Heston Blumenthal), on the Margaret River, Western Australia
http://www.gourmetescape.com.au/
It means I'll miss part of late November in England.
Tricky decision. Whaddaya think PB? Stay or go?
Edit/ wrong, sorry, I am thinking of the Murray River.0 -
-
Allerdale
Lab 40.7% plus 5.8%
LDem 29.4% plus 20,0%
Con 25.9% minus 19.3%
UKIP 4,0% plus 4.0%0 -
Sorry, reread that it was TimT who had not been to Rome. Looks like you enjoyed your very own 'Roman Holiday' in a fantastic location!SeanT said:
I have been to Rome, quite a few times. Indeed I've stayed a week at the Villa Medici, possibly the most beautiful house in the city, right on top of the Spanish Steps, which has a larger private garden than the Pope.HYUFD said:
All sound fascinating but do get to Rome eventually if you can, looking over the Forum at night is mesmericSeanT said:
But the Lascaux painting are facsimiles (unless you managed to see the originals???). I've been invited to the previews of thisMTimT said:
Ah, well, that is different. Given those choices, even though I have not been to either Rome (amazingly enough) or Western Australia and I have been to Lascaux, I'd choose Lascaux.SeanT said:
I'd have forgiven you for saying "Do one" instead.TheScreamingEagles said:
Do itSeanT said:Just been invited to the Greatest Food Festival in the World (according to Heston Blumenthal), on the Margaret River, Western Australia
http://www.gourmetescape.com.au/
It means I'll miss part of late November in England.
Tricky decision. Whaddaya think PB? Stay or go?
The only problem with saying Yes to the Oz trip is that I either have to give up an exclusive view of the new Lascaux exhibition in the Dordogne, or a luxury trip to Rome, dining at the Hassler etc.
My life is one endless series of dilemmas. I yearn for simplicity.
*cough*
You look at those 30,000 year old paintings and know that early human was every bit as intellectual as modern man, just with a bit less technology.
Of course, no good wine or food in the Dardogne (cough).
http://www.euronews.com/2016/09/14/3d-lascaux-cave-comes-to-life
On the other hand I love cave art (and they're going to show me lots of real cave paintings as well as the Lascaux thing). Maybe I'll just *postpone* Rome....
The only people who get to stay there are winners of the Prix de Rome (and their friends)
I played the piano played by Debussy.
http://www.villamedici.it/en
I'll stop now.0 -
Liz Kendall struggling to make sense of the rebel position on BBCQT0
-
-
Oh yes, Sydney is on the water, and has better weather. I love Sydney.SeanT said:
Weird climate, Melbourne. Summer heat yields to Antarctic winds in hours. Drives people mad.rcs1000 said:
I like Melbourne. I may even move there.MattW said:Melbourne is lovely this morning...
Sydney is nicer. The northern beaches and Brisbane river area above Sydney is even nicer still. Basically perfect. You have to pay for it, tho. Of course.
0 -
Fortunately for Ken it is not Ken in the photo.RobD said:
Gotta be a 'shop.. or someone who looks awfully like Ken?TheScreamingEagles said:
It may reference this t shirtScrapheap_as_was said:
Soggy bottom or biscuit.... the latter maybe after mums net this week??TheScreamingEagles said:
One of my Sunday thread's talks about the GBBO, it also contains possibly my most mind bleaching awful PB headlineFrancisUrquhart said:Disgraceful....yet another thread goes by and not on GBBO....given the amount of coverage on the BBC, I have to conclude it is the most important story in the world.
Oh and last like Owen Thingy...
twitter.com/happymem0r1es/status/3579648348196945920 -
I lived in Melboune for a while (in Prahran). It is a much more liveable city than Sydney, though Sydney has more for the tourist.SeanT said:
Weird climate, Melbourne. Summer heat yields to Antarctic winds in hours. Drives people mad.rcs1000 said:
I like Melbourne. I may even move there.MattW said:Melbourne is lovely this morning...
Sydney is nicer. The northern beaches and Brisbane river area above Sydney is even nicer still. Basically perfect. You have to pay for it, tho. Of course.
Great European culture, particularly Greek, Italian and Yugoslavian.0 -
People in Sydney were the happiest I've ever come across in a big city. They were a bit grumpy in Melbourne by comparison, although nothing like London.0
-
On Nate Silver's reckoning, Trump will remain just short even if he wins two states (Florida and Nevada) where he currently has a lead of less than 1% and two more (Ohio and North Carolina) where he currently has a lead of less than 2%. I'd have thought the first two of those at least could fairly be classed as "statistical dead heats".Sean_F said:
RCP now has Trump on 266-272 Clinton, but Florida is on a knife edge and the remaining States look okay for her.
Even if he did that, he would also need to win at least one more state, but all the others have Clinton leads of at least 3% (again on Silver's figures).
Obviously it's possible, but Silver's estimate of a 40.6% chance of it happening seems high to me. Evidently his statistical model is extremely complicated, but I presume that high probability is essentially coming from two possibilities: (1) that there's an underlying bias in the polling data, and (2) that there's a further shift towards Trump before polling day. I don't believe pure sampling error alone would produce a 40% probability of a Trump victory.
0 -
My wife's children live in Melbourne and we'll probably move there after Brexit, LOL!! SeanT may be right as we have friends who moved from Malaysia to Sydney (but then they have more money than us!)0
-
Average house prices in Sydney dropped below 1 million AUD this year. Not far off London prices.Ally_B said:My wife's children live in Melbourne and we'll probably move there after Brexit, LOL!! SeanT may be right as we have friends who moved from Malaysia to Sydney (but then they have more money than us!)
Adelaide is lovely too.0 -
I would've thought it, and indeed stated on PB many times when the ridiculous coup was getting underway that, crap though Corbyn was, the other Labour MPs were all crapper. Even if you put aside political positions, the likes of Smith and the other "moderates" are all totally crap at basic politics -- they're useless at reading the mood of the public, useless at thinking of good and exciting ideas, useless at putting good arguments that could sway the public's mind or otherwise speak in a convincing way.DavidL said:
I agree. Smith was a remarkable find: someone even more incompetent and useless than Corbyn. Who would have thought that even possible let alone that that would be Labours alternative.Danny565 said:I think it'll be close to 70-30 for Corbyn.
0 -
I have cousins there. Their house is in Newport facing the harbour, overlooking the Kuranggai Chase National Park. They bought the house in the Seventies for next to nothing. Quite a lot of drugs and social problems there though.SeanT said:
This is where my Aussie daughter Ruby lives. An hour north of Sydney (max). Pittwater.rcs1000 said:
Oh yes, Sydney is on the water, and has better weather. I love Sydney.SeanT said:
Weird climate, Melbourne. Summer heat yields to Antarctic winds in hours. Drives people mad.rcs1000 said:
I like Melbourne. I may even move there.MattW said:Melbourne is lovely this morning...
Sydney is nicer. The northern beaches and Brisbane river area above Sydney is even nicer still. Basically perfect. You have to pay for it, tho. Of course.
http://media.gettyimages.com/photos/yacht-race-on-pittwater-sydney-new-south-wales-australia-picture-id139808926?s=170667a
http://l7.alamy.com/zooms/8f4c036d59584339877b205be0e06c36/bayview-pittwater-sydney-nsw-australia-aebbxe.jpg
Incredibly seductive0 -
Kendall - who is actually one of the better ones - was certainly struggling just now to explain why she would campaign for a labour government, would not support Corbyn's platform, would not serve in his shadow cabinet if asked, but would not leave the Labour Party or support any discussions with any other party.Danny565 said:
I would've thought it, and indeed stated on PB many times when the ridiculous coup was getting underway that, crap though Corbyn was, the other Labour MPs were all crapper. Even if you put aside political positions, the likes of Smith and the other "moderates" are all totally crap at basic politics -- they're useless at reading the mood of the public, useless at thinking of good and exciting ideas, useless at putting good arguments that could sway the public's mind or otherwise speak in a convincing way.DavidL said:
I agree. Smith was a remarkable find: someone even more incompetent and useless than Corbyn. Who would have thought that even possible let alone that that would be Labours alternative.Danny565 said:I think it'll be close to 70-30 for Corbyn.
0 -
What's the problem with weed and crystal meth?SeanT said:
Ah! I know Newport well. I have old uni friends with a house right there. Visit them every time I go out.foxinsoxuk said:
I have cousins there. Theier house is in Newport facing the harbour, overlooking the Kuranggai Chase National Park. They bought the house in the Seventies for next to nothing. Quite a lot of drugs and social problems there though.SeanT said:
This is where my Aussie daughter Ruby lives. An hour north of Sydney (max). Pittwater.rcs1000 said:
Oh yes, Sydney is on the water, and has better weather. I love Sydney.SeanT said:
Weird climate, Melbourne. Summer heat yields to Antarctic winds in hours. Drives people mad.rcs1000 said:
I like Melbourne. I may even move there.MattW said:Melbourne is lovely this morning...
Sydney is nicer. The northern beaches and Brisbane river area above Sydney is even nicer still. Basically perfect. You have to pay for it, tho. Of course.
http://media.gettyimages.com/photos/yacht-race-on-pittwater-sydney-new-south-wales-australia-picture-id139808926?s=170667a
http://l7.alamy.com/zooms/8f4c036d59584339877b205be0e06c36/bayview-pittwater-sydney-nsw-australia-aebbxe.jpg
Incredibly seductive
Yes there's weed and crystal meth issues? Oz has its problems. But nonetheless they are much smaller and more manageable than in most countries.0 -
Labour gain Coatbridge North from SNP
Plaid gain Carmarthenshire Cilycwm from Ind0 -
If the BBC doesn't lead with this all day tomorrow it will be irrefutable evidence of the Zionist MSM's anti-Corbyn campaign.MarkSenior said:Allerdale
Lab 40.7% plus 5.8%
LDem 29.4% plus 20,0%
Con 25.9% minus 19.3%
UKIP 4,0% plus 4.0%0 -
A couple of small cracks in the SNP wall are starting to show...MarkSenior said:Labour gain Coatbridge North from SNP
Plaid gain Carmarthenshire Cilycwm from Ind0 -
My cousins have a bit more problem with the used syringes they find every day on the beaches.rcs1000 said:
What's the problem with weed and crystal meth?SeanT said:
Ah! I know Newport well. I have old uni friends with a house right there. Visit them every time I go out.foxinsoxuk said:
I have cousins there. Theier house is in Newport facing the harbour, overlooking the Kuranggai Chase National Park. They bought the house in the Seventies for next to nothing. Quite a lot of drugs and social problems there though.SeanT said:
This is where my Aussie daughter Ruby lives. An hour north of Sydney (max). Pittwater.rcs1000 said:
Oh yes, Sydney is on the water, and has better weather. I love Sydney.SeanT said:
Weird climate, Melbourne. Summer heat yields to Antarctic winds in hours. Drives people mad.rcs1000 said:
I like Melbourne. I may even move there.MattW said:Melbourne is lovely this morning...
Sydney is nicer. The northern beaches and Brisbane river area above Sydney is even nicer still. Basically perfect. You have to pay for it, tho. Of course.
http://media.gettyimages.com/photos/yacht-race-on-pittwater-sydney-new-south-wales-australia-picture-id139808926?s=170667a
http://l7.alamy.com/zooms/8f4c036d59584339877b205be0e06c36/bayview-pittwater-sydney-nsw-australia-aebbxe.jpg
Incredibly seductive
Yes there's weed and crystal meth issues? Oz has its problems. But nonetheless they are much smaller and more manageable than in most countries.
They still like the place though. Eating breakfast on their verandah with lorikeets screetching in the branches above, was quite something.0
