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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn has clearly won – the big question is the size of hi
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn has clearly won – the big question is the size of his victory
According to punters at least there is absolutely no doubt about who will be announced as winner of the LAB leadership contest on Saturday. The controversial incumbent looks set for victory and clearly his supporters will be hoping that his vote share is above or equal to the 59% of 2015.
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State College Non college
Ohio 37.3% 44.5%
Penn 44.4% 35.9%
an eight point gap between non college educated white voters, leads to a big gap in voting differences.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/
Eh, leaving aside the problem of hanging everything on one constituency I'd say vote share is more important than place.
Sub 5= disaster
5 - 10= status quo
10- 15= good growth
15- 20= Excellent fightback
20+= Major gain
RCP now has Trump on 266-272 Clinton, but Florida is on a knife edge and the remaining States look okay for her.
Corbyn’s team have conducted a series of meetings over the past four weeks in a bid to persuade rebel MPs to join his team and end the doubling-up of jobs that has been necessary since the rash of resignations that followed the Brexit vote.
But many say they have either have not been approached or would refuse to serve without a mandate from their colleagues in the parliamentary Labour party (PLP) – and are readying themselves for what one called “coexistence” with Corbyn from the backbenches.
“I would be surprised if he gets more than a dozen,” said one senior party source, adding that there were more than 60 unfilled posts.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/22/labour-mp-prepare-coexist-jeremy-corbyn-leadership-backbench
But we are the unions, that never have spoken yet.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/
Whether the (innocent) black person who was shot in Charlotte was merely exercising his constitutional second ammendment rights, or the gun was planted, it was a case of trigger happy cops, and another dead black person.
Though of course policing in a gun crazy America would make anyone a little twitchy with the trigger finger.
Oh and last like Owen Thingy...
I don't think I have ever made one individual, unpleasant, personal comment to another, individual poster on the twelve years or so I have posted here. I once said to Plato that I find politically ideological right wing women sexually repellant or repulsive or both (which is true on my part but each to his own)...which she took quite badly...or maybe something obliquely to seanT (I think I've called him a narcissist which is stating the bleeding obvious)- but my insults never play the person......
Already the wealthy Chinese students that I pass in the streets of Leicester have more in common with the British undergraduates, than the British undergraduates have with the benighted of Benefit Street.
You look at those 30,000 year old paintings and know that early human was every bit as intellectual as modern man, just with a bit less technology.
Of course, no good wine or food in the Dardogne (cough).
He probably knows it though well enough. If he doesn't, maybe he should Wiki it?
Meanwhile, outside the Hard Left Bubble...
"Theresa May is more trusted than Jeremy Corbyn to tackle the most urgent problems in post-Brexit Britain, including safeguarding the NHS, according to a new poll seen exclusively by the Guardian.
Asked what politicians’ priorities should be, the top three choices in the Britain Thinks poll were safeguarding the health service, significantly reducing immigration and striking new trade deals as Britain leaves the European Union.
Theresa May was more trusted on all three issues, outpacing Corbyn on protecting the NHS by 38% to 30%. On reducing immigration, 46% of voters trusted May; just 12% said Corbyn. Britain Thinks polled 2,053 people, weighted to represent the country, as well as conducting four focus groups in Harlow and Leamington Spa."
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/22/theresa-may-more-trusted-than-jeremy-corbyn-britains-key-issues-poll
The Tories outpolling Labour on who's best for the NHS. Despite the junior doctors' strike, and a regular stream of doom-laden prophecies of impending collapse. Absolutely, totally extraordinary.
Brand loyalty is all that the Labour Party has left now. Come the next election, if Corbyn beats Michael Foot's 1983 vote share it will probably only be because of third party weakness.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1976
https://twitter.com/happymem0r1es/status/357964834819694592
@DavidL (if you're still around), there is a big difference between the customs unions and the Single Market. The EU Customs Union has a common external tariff system, and makes trade deals on behalf the entire bloc. However, other than defining the area inside the bloc as tariff free, it imposes no obligations on its members. All EU states are members of the EU Customs Union, as is Turkey, which therefore benefits from tariff free trade with the EU and with the 30 odd countries the EU has trade arrangements with.
The Single Market, aka the European Economic Area, or EEA, includes the EU states, Iceland, Litchenstein and Norway. (But it does not include Turkey.) It defines a set of rules that all members use while trading with each other, in particular the principle that you cannot discriminate against other citizens or firms from other EEA countries. Members acknowledge that the ECJ is used for dispute as regards cross border trade. So (in the case of my now sold asset management business) we were allowed to sell funds domiciled in London to French customers on the same terms as a French fund manager.
It's even possible that Labour and the broader Left will be marginalised for a generation, and the opposition will eventually emerge from a split in the Conservative Party. If the centre-Left can't deal with its crisis of message and purpose then it's entirely possible that we'll end up with two flavours of Tories as both Government and Opposition - before the parties eventually drift back into the roles of Liberal and Conservative, and it's as-you-were before Labour ever existed. Stranger things have happened...
"X is probably the best Eurozone bank. Although I realise that is a little bit like saying that syphilis is the best STD."
Edit/ wrong, sorry, I am thinking of the Murray River.
Lab 40.7% plus 5.8%
LDem 29.4% plus 20,0%
Con 25.9% minus 19.3%
UKIP 4,0% plus 4.0%
We should set up a PB Melbourne appreciation society.
Great European culture, particularly Greek, Italian and Yugoslavian.
Living like SeanT for 1% of the year. :-D
So doctor, which is the best bit of Derbyshire?
Even if he did that, he would also need to win at least one more state, but all the others have Clinton leads of at least 3% (again on Silver's figures).
Obviously it's possible, but Silver's estimate of a 40.6% chance of it happening seems high to me. Evidently his statistical model is extremely complicated, but I presume that high probability is essentially coming from two possibilities: (1) that there's an underlying bias in the polling data, and (2) that there's a further shift towards Trump before polling day. I don't believe pure sampling error alone would produce a 40% probability of a Trump victory.
Adelaide is lovely too.
Plaid gain Carmarthenshire Cilycwm from Ind
They still like the place though. Eating breakfast on their verandah with lorikeets screetching in the branches above, was quite something.