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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Who’ll win the LAB/LD/UKIP Witney battle for 2nd place in t

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,062

    On government plans spending on the NHS is projected to be 6.6% of GDP by 2020. This is despite the ageing population and rise in obesity related illnesses. On top of this we have a staffing crisis, and deteriating national performance as in the graphs in this short clip:

    https://youtu.be/nsCDAp_aFEg

    It is the voters of Leaverstan (Older, poorer and more provincial) that are most reliant on the NHS. Best not piss off the core vote.
    More Tories have private health insurance than the national average
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,062

    Not sure how I feel about this:

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-37436417

    Clearly the law in the fifties was wrong - but surely it is that law that now stands in the dock, not Alan Turing?

    Yes, it was wrong to persecute gay men - and for those still alive, if it helps, then great - but it feels a bit like virtue signalling - like the slavery issue - where critics generally forget that slavery was a major African trade and it was the Royal Navy which destroyed the then global slave trade......better to spend time improving the lives of the living - like current slavery.....

    I hope apologies will also be forthcoming for those burnt at the stake for witchcraft and being heretics too
  • TonyETonyE Posts: 938
    IanB2 said:

    No, but it's just that we have the SAME debate every day about his, and today you happened to have started it particularly early. At least the newspapers have the excuse of empty pages to fill. Otherwise there really isn't any point in trying to claim either disaster or success for something that hasn't happened yet and where the oil-tanker nature of the economy is such that the truth won't be evident until a year or two after it has, anyway. I know it's frustrating for both blinkered leavers and remainers eager to claim the prize, but we'll all just have to be patient. At least until someone starts the same debate based on some spurious piece of non-evidence tomorrow. Meanwhile we would all be better off debating AV.
    But we were told that there would be instant disaster, just from the result of the vote. Don't tell me that we all misinterpreted Osborne?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,062
    IanB2 said:

    No, but it's just that we have the SAME debate every day about his, and today you happened to have started it particularly early. At least the newspapers have the excuse of empty pages to fill. Otherwise there really isn't any point in trying to claim either disaster or success for something that hasn't happened yet and where the oil-tanker nature of the economy is such that the truth won't be evident until a year or two after it has, anyway. I know it's frustrating for both blinkered leavers and remainers eager to claim the prize, but we'll all just have to be patient. At least until someone starts the same debate based on some spurious piece of non-evidence tomorrow. Meanwhile we would all be better off debating AV.
    Indeed. Remainers want full single market access and free trade with the EU and free movement, Leavers want to leave the single market and a complete end to freedom of movement and a substantial fall in immigration by 2020. In the end while May lean a little more towards hard Brexit neither are likely to get exactly what they want
  • IanB2 said:

    No, but it's just that we have the SAME debate every day about his, and today you happened to have started it particularly early. At least the newspapers have the excuse of empty pages to fill. Otherwise there really isn't any point in trying to claim either disaster or success for something that hasn't happened yet and where the oil-tanker nature of the economy is such that the truth won't be evident until a year or two after it has, anyway. I know it's frustrating for both blinkered leavers and remainers eager to claim the prize, but we'll all just have to be patient. At least until someone starts the same debate based on some spurious piece of non-evidence tomorrow. Meanwhile we would all be better off debating AV.
    Our little problems with Brexit may soon be overtaken by world events. AEP is at it again this morning in Telegraph with warnings from UN on stupendous corporate debt in developing/emerging nations.

    "What is clear is that world will soon need a massive and coordinated spending push by governments to create demand and bring the broken global system back into equilibrium."

    Are May/Hammond/Nick Timothy reading?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,108
    TonyE said:

    But we were told that there would be instant disaster, just from the result of the vote. Don't tell me that we all misinterpreted Osborne?
    The quote posted up here a day or two back was that there would be an "immediate shock" (which there was), with lots of bad things then following on from that. The bad things, we don't know yet, particularly - as @fox has pointed out - everyone assumed Cammo would carry through with his immediate A50 promise, which he didn't. Just be patient. And hope for the best.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,180
    HYUFD said:

    Nevada though has a few wealthy New York retirees who have moved to the sunbelt and Trump has a hotel in Lad Vegas. Trump is ahead in Nevada in the latest Fox poll and with RCP
    I am sure some of the Corleone family moved there from New York. And they are allegedly good pals with Trump.
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    PlatoSaid said:

    This is quite fun - https://medium.com/@nntaleb/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577#.211c6e2of

    "What we have been seeing worldwide, from India to the UK to the US, is the rebellion against the inner circle of no-skin-in-the-game policymaking “clerks” and journalists-insiders, that class of paternalistic semi-intellectual experts with some Ivy league, Oxford-Cambridge, or similar label-driven education who are telling the rest of us 1) what to do, 2) what to eat, 3) how to speak, 4) how to think… and 5) who to vote for...

    The IYI thinks this criticism of IYIs means “everybody is an idiot”, not realizing that their group represents, as we said, a tiny minority — but they don’t like their sense of entitlement to be challenged and although they treat the rest of humans as inferiors, they don’t like it when the waterhose is turned to the opposite direction (what the French call arroseur arrosé)."

    Perfect
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,062
    DavidL said:

    I am sure some of the Corleone family moved there from New York. And they are allegedly good pals with Trump.
    I imagine he knows plenty of casino owners yes
  • <
    rkrkrk said:

    Not sure your Maths works out?

    If you were 70 today, and your father and grandfather were 30 years old when their son was born... then your grandfather would have been born in 1886.

    You're easily into that territory if you add another couple of generations.


    Im under 50 and my Grandfather was born in 1890.

    Might account for a lot :)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,180
    IanB2 said:

    No, but it's just that we have the SAME debate every day about his, and today you happened to have started it particularly early. At least the newspapers have the excuse of empty pages to fill. Otherwise there really isn't any point in trying to claim either disaster or success for something that hasn't happened yet and where the oil-tanker nature of the economy is such that the truth won't be evident until a year or two after it has, anyway. I know it's frustrating for both blinkered leavers and remainers eager to claim the prize, but we'll all just have to be patient. At least until someone starts the same debate based on some spurious piece of non-evidence tomorrow. Meanwhile we would all be better off debating AV.
    What we are seeing is that the economy was actually in a stronger state in June than was thought at the time. There was a consensus then that a mild technical recession was likely by the end of this year or the beginning of next. Forecasts by both sides but particularly the remainers were made in that context.

    The consistent train of good news on employment, housing, car production, PMIs etc over the last 2 months has been a pleasant surprise. Whether it has anything at all to do with Brexit is hard to say but there is no evidence that has knocked the economy off track in the way some feared.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    DavidL said:

    The consistent train of good news on employment, housing, car production, PMIs etc over the last 2 months has been a pleasant surprise. Whether it has anything at all to do with Brexit is hard to say but there is no evidence that has knocked the economy off track in the way some feared.

    @paulwaugh: Euphemism of the Day: supermarkets 're-engineering' products (smaller packets/jars, same price) to cope with Brexit
    thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/s… pic.twitter.com/R1UBv69s0w

    Ummm
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,553
    Scott_P said:

    @paulwaugh: Euphemism of the Day: supermarkets 're-engineering' products (smaller packets/jars, same price) to cope with Brexit
    thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/s… pic.twitter.com/R1UBv69s0w

    Ummm
    Anybody who thinks they haven't been doing that for many months has no observational skills at all. Some of M&S products are a joke (yes, I'm looking at you, cashew nuts....)
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Scott_P said:

    @paulwaugh: Euphemism of the Day: supermarkets 're-engineering' products (smaller packets/jars, same price) to cope with Brexit
    thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/s… pic.twitter.com/R1UBv69s0w

    Ummm
    Wont be long before there are only a couple of choc digestives in a pack and those choc digestives with no chocolate on them.!
  • Mr. Mark, months? Years!

    Making a product smaller rather than raise the price has happened for decades.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    HYUFD said:

    I imagine he knows plenty of casino owners yes
    TBH, I think Trump's Vegas casino experience would be rather useful when dealing with quite a lot of international hardmen types.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    As a nation we could do with smaller portion sizes, a 20% reduction across the board would do wonders for reducing obesity.
  • Has the pig-gate allegation been taken removed from this edition? I'd hate to think all that pb Tory outrage was in vain.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,108
    edited September 2016
    Dixie said:

    Perfect
    This made me think of the celebrity island programme that started this week (spoilers ahead) on 4, where a bunch of celebrities were dropped on an uninhabited island near Panama. Dom Joly quickly emerges as the only one with a shred of common sense among them, and even that is only relative. in the first episode they basically waste two days wandering aimlessly around in the midday sun in a big group looking for a water source, and after two days have had nothing whatsoever to eat. One of them wants home already. Two times they have pressed the panic button and been rescued from a situation that otherwise would probably have been their death. Second episode Sunday, I think. No real link with Plato's article except for the stunning cluelessness of some variously talented people on display.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited September 2016

    Anybody who thinks they haven't been doing that for many months has no observational skills at all. Some of M&S products are a joke (yes, I'm looking at you, cashew nuts....)
    It's been going on for ever with premium ingredient products like chocolate - and crisps.
  • PlatoSaid said:
    Got it on Kindle - Amazon have it up with 'search inside' enabled.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,507

    Turing was convicted of Gross Indecency with a 19 year old man. That would have been illegal as late as 1994. If the man had been 17 then the year 2000.

    Pardoning all cases of GI in a blanket manner would be a fairly blunt instrument, a bit like the "shot at dawn" pardon.
    One man who is often portrayed as a martyr, Oscar Wilde, would likely receive a longer sentence today than he got in 1895.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    MaxPB said:

    As a nation we could do with smaller portion sizes, a 20% reduction across the board would do wonders for reducing obesity.

    I agree - some of the smaller portion meals are so nice that I often have two.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/skys-departure-adds-to-clouds-over-the-cbi-78zl58czz

    Good to see the CBI suffer, completely useless organisation, hopefully the leadership is sacked and replaced with people who actually care about British Industry and not just lining their own pockets.
  • Scott_P said:

    @paulwaugh: Euphemism of the Day: supermarkets 're-engineering' products (smaller packets/jars, same price) to cope with Brexit
    thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/s… pic.twitter.com/R1UBv69s0w

    Ummm
    That's been going on since the year dot.....

    Increase pack price or decrease pack contents while holding price......

    Picking 'Brexit' as the excuse reason wins marks for creativity....
  • Wont be long before there are only a couple of choc digestives in a pack and those choc digestives with no chocolate on them.!
    McVities are now selling a cardboard box of Disgestives, with six packs of two biscuits inside. That's twelve biscuits for a pound, the same price as a traditional 'normal' pack.

    Yet apparently they're selling well, in my local shop at least.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    IanB2 said:

    This made me think of the celebrity island programme that started this week (spoilers ahead) on 4, where a bunch of celebrities were dropped on an uninhabited island near Panama. Dom Joly quickly emerges as the only one with a shred of common sense among them, and even that is only relative. in the first episode they basically waste two days wandering aimlessly around in the midday sun in a big group looking for a water source, and after two days have had nothing whatsoever to eat. One of them wants home already. Two times they have pressed the panic button and been rescued from a situation that otherwise would probably have been their death. Second episode Sunday, I think. No real link with Plato's article except for the stunning cluelessness of some variously talented people on display.
    I watched a couple of previous Gryll's celeb survival progs and they're so entertaining - the crying and stomping off. Your description is perfect. Didn't know they'd started another series - will DVR it.
  • Wont be long before there are only a couple of choc digestives in a pack and those choc digestives with no chocolate on them.!

    Next time you look at a chocolate bar look at the bevels on the edges......bevelled edge = no chocolate = cheaper to make.....increase the price or increase the size of the bevel?

    Another favourite is 'dimples on the top' - dimples = air = less chocolate.....

  • John Mann article. Top stuff. Definitely worth a read.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited September 2016


    Next time you look at a chocolate bar look at the bevels on the edges......bevelled edge = no chocolate = cheaper to make.....increase the price or increase the size of the bevel?

    Another favourite is 'dimples on the top' - dimples = air = less chocolate.....

    My favourite was Vanilla Coke. I loved it - but they had to stop production because it was a runaway success, killed the price of vanilla and made the variant unprofitable.
  • Although Mann makes no mention of Ed Balls. I may be going bonkers, but I personally think he is someone to keep an eye on wrt bets. Making some very interesting moves (and not just on the dance floor).
  • NEW THREAD
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    McVities are now selling a cardboard box of Disgestives, with six packs of two biscuits inside. That's twelve biscuits for a pound, the same price as a traditional 'normal' pack.

    Yet apparently they're selling well, in my local shop at least.
    Convenience of being able to take a two pack out at a time and stick it into one's lunchbox rather than having to wrap two biscuits from a normal pack into cling film or taking the whole pack and risk bingeing on it after a thoroughly depressing day at the office! It's something that my sister would definitely be interested in.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,062

    Although Mann makes no mention of Ed Balls. I may be going bonkers, but I personally think he is someone to keep an eye on wrt bets. Making some very interesting moves (and not just on the dance floor).

    If he comes out as a Marxist maybe
  • IanB2 said:
    Labour loves staying inside its comfort zone, battling for irrelevant positions, talking to itself, sympathising with those living in poverty, articulating outrage. But it is terrified of the working class because it might say things they don't want to hear.

    emphasis added

    Thanks - excellent read.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,705
    Back on Brexit, eh?

    Interesting news from Lloyds. They've been doing some planning.

    Depending on outcomes they might need one office in the EU, or 27. Staff will be recruited locally or sent to those offices. Cost might be up to 4% of revenue/profit (didn't hear which) but households unlikely to notice in terms of premia (!).

    Exactly corresponds with my view that we will be in an imperceptibly worse position than previously. But a worse position nevertheless.

    Of course we might get passporting, that said.
  • TOPPING said:

    Back on Brexit, eh?

    Interesting news from Lloyds. They've been doing some planning.

    Depending on outcomes they might need one office in the EU, or 27. Staff will be recruited locally or sent to those offices. Cost might be up to 4% of revenue/profit (didn't hear which) but households unlikely to notice in terms of premia (!).

    Exactly corresponds with my view that we will be in an imperceptibly worse position than previously. But a worse position nevertheless.


    Of course we might get passporting, that said.

    Or the UK may well remain a member of the European Banking Union, which includes more than just EU members.
  • A nightmare story for me:

    Apple to buy McLaren?

    http://www.macrumors.com/2016/09/21/apple-mclaren-acquisition-talks/

    NNNNNNOOOOOOOO!


    Apple Mac Laren.
  • Anybody who thinks they haven't been doing that for many months has no observational skills at all. Some of M&S products are a joke (yes, I'm looking at you, cashew nuts....)

    M&S honey coated cashew nuts seem to have less honey in the last few weeks.

    Is it the bees?

    Or is it cut backs?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Sean_F said:

    One man who is often portrayed as a martyr, Oscar Wilde, would likely receive a longer sentence today than he got in 1895.
    I've just read the Ballad of Reading Gaol. It really put me off getting hanged.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,918


    Turing was convicted of Gross Indecency with a 19 year old man. That would have been illegal as late as 1994. If the man had been 17 then the year 2000.

    Pardoning all cases of GI in a blanket manner would be a fairly blunt instrument, a bit like the "shot at dawn" pardon.

    Anyone who can be bothered to follow the link that was posted, and has the stamina to read the first two sentences, will see that the proposed pardon would apply only to "crimes of which they would be innocent today".
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,918
    Sean_F said:

    One man who is often portrayed as a martyr, Oscar Wilde, would likely receive a longer sentence today than he got in 1895.

    I wonder why you would think that.

    If you're suggesting any of his sexual partners would be under age today, perhaps you could explain. As far as I can see, the youngest on the indictment was 16.
This discussion has been closed.