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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Who’ll win the LAB/LD/UKIP Witney battle for 2nd place in t
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Who’ll win the LAB/LD/UKIP Witney battle for 2nd place in the parliament’s first CON Westminster by-election defence?
Betfair have now got up a Witney market on which party will be the winner excluding the Tories who clearly are red hot favourites to hold onto the seat that Cameron held from GE2005 until a week last Monday.
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There are 5 weeks to the election day in Witney. But, there are just 2 weeks before the postal ballots go out on 6th October. The fact that UKIP have not yet selected a candidate 9 days after Cameron resigned, illustrates just how bad UKIP are at by elections. UKIP lost out at Eastleigh because of postal votes. They failed to be prepared early enough then even though they had months of notice that a by election was likely. At the Eastleigh by election, the Conservatives were not much better than UKIP. That said if the Conservatives select a REMAINer for Witney then UKIP could come 2nd. But today the campaign does not look good for UKIP and the LDs may get 2nd place. Labour do look vulnerable to losing 2nd place.
Jones,Wilson,Farrell...erhhh you know Thingy.Impressive.
That'll save some time. But in all seriousness, given many MPs will see frontbench roles as a major goal (not all, obviously), proportionally his amount of time in those roles in very efficient.
Doesn't it alarm you that in the last 24 years the only Tory leader to have won a majority or even a general election is a Lib Dem in your eyes?
NBC poll of what issues most concern voters. top 4:
Trump comments about women,immigrants and Muslims
Trump's not having a presidential temperament
Clinton's use of private email server while sec. of state
Clinton's judgement dealing with Syria,Iraq and Libya
Hillary health concern comes bottom (only 44% of voters concerned about it)
It seems people are forgetting Labour weren't just 2nd last time, but 2nd by a good 10%. The LDs barely held their deposit. If they can work their magic like in wards recently then they will come second, but Labour really just need to stay on 15-20% and they'll probably come second. They've picked the same candidate, and will probably put some decent resource into the fight (Corbyn needs this as much as Farron, if not more).
Anything over evens is probably value on Labour, in the absence of polling to the contrary.
The survey - which was conducted after Clinton's return to the campaign trail following her bout with pneumonia - shows a bigger advantage for the secretary of state than did polls taken during the heightened scrutiny of her health.
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/poll-clinton-leads-trump-ahead-first-debate-n652141
nationwide
clinton 43
trump 37
johnson 9
Apple to buy McLaren?
http://www.macrumors.com/2016/09/21/apple-mclaren-acquisition-talks/
NNNNNNOOOOOOOO!
Just sayin...
In all seriousness it's sad that the era of British computing in the 80s got killed off.
in a 2 way, hillary leads by 7
clinton leads with educated whites by 6
with women by 17
by over 90 wirh african americans and 60 with hispanics
more people see donald as honest by 10
more people see hilary as presidental by 30
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/2016_Reuters_Tracking_-_Core_Political_9.20_.16_.pdf
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/zcgy71ddez/econToplines.pdf
http://www.latimes.com/politics/
I think that means its about, when discussing feminist issues, to take account of other 'isms' that might also be in play like racism and classism.
In all seriousness though my original comment was slightly tongue-in-cheek and I accept that Cameron was an improvement on, say, Brown or Miliband.
Or it's nonsense, your pick. But that's what he meant.
So if you tackle one, you're tacking all of them, because if you're likely to be a misogynist, you're likely to hate not only women, but blacks, Muslims, and gays.
The things you learn from the protesters in the centre of Manchester
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/womens-life/10572435/Intersectional-feminism.-What-the-hell-is-it-And-why-you-should-care.html
Clearly some Corbynites are now on a different planet from many of the traditional white working class Labour vote!
Labour MPs hire BODYGUARDS to protect them from hard-left disciples of Jeremy Corbyn as voting ends in the party's angry leadership contest
Moderate Labour MPs opposed to Jeremy Corbyn have hired bodyguards to keep them safe from aggressive hard-left activists at conference, it emerged today.As Labour's angry and divisive leadership election drew to a close with the end of voting at noon, opponents of Mr Corbyn were coming to terms with his widely expected second victory.
MPs who spoke out against Mr Corbyn for being incompetent and divisive have revealed campaigns of harassment against them repeatedly since the contest between Mr Corbyn and Owen Smith began earlier this summer.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3799790/Labour-MPs-hire-BODYGUARDS-protect-hard-left-disciples-Jeremy-Corbyn-voting-ends-party-s-angry-leadership-contest.html#ixzz4Kvb8O2lS
also interesting is that trump is doing worse with non educated whites than romney (+18 vs +24) and a lot worse with educated whites (clinton on +6 compared with romneys +8)
The thing most voters hate is what he says about immigrants and women (69% of voters). This wont help
TSE will call it the greatest thing since George Osborne.
But you've given me an idea for Sunday's thread.
George Osborne = Steve Jobs
Theresa May = John Sculley
clinton 51
trump 25
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-37426725
http://rodong.rep.kp./en/
Con 46%
Lab 26%
LD 16%
Green 8%
UKIP 3%
Ind 2%
Not all wards voted and allowing that these are the more rural the estimated share overall would be
Con 49%
Lab 21%
LD 18%
Green 7%
UKIP 4%
Ind 1%
A good right-wing leader certainly could have done what Cameron did, which after all, wasn't that much when you look at it: Brown and Miliband were both uninspiring leaders, against one he didn't get a majority at all, against the other he only barely did.
Hysterics of Chongwadae Idiot
http://rodong.rep.kp./en/index.php?strPageID=SF01_02_01&newsID=2016-09-21-0008
Yougov meanwhile has 35% of Americans believing Hillary is evil, 50% corrupt and 44% dangerous, 35% also think Trump is evil, 51% think Trump is crazy, 48% think he is bigoted and 51% think he is racist
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/zcgy71ddez/econToplines.pdf
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/21/rejoice-the-liberal-left-that-once-ruled-over-britain-is-now-bei/
In the studio we then have 3 people, 1 (Heath) "over egged by REMAIN", Yeuh "creates economic uncertainty" and quotes Bank of England and Chris Giles at europhile FT says it will be bad after conceding in short term they got it wrong. 2 v1 for REMAIN........ Usual BBC loading the panel.
Guardian TVNewsnight?That should make my meetings far more interesting.
https://twitter.com/IanSams/status/778676594495729665