politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Who’ll win the LAB/LD/UKIP Witney battle for 2nd place in t
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I like this bit:Moses_ said:Interesting......N.Korea internet accidentally discovered by engineer
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-37426725
http://rodong.rep.kp./en/
"Kim Jong Un, chairman of the Workers' Party of Korea, chairman of the State Affairs Commission of the DPRK and supreme commander of the Korean People's Army, gave field guidance to the Kosan Combined Fruit Farm.
Kim Jong Un looked round the room for the education in the revolutionary history which was remodeled to convey to posterity the immortal revolutionary exploits performed by President Kim Il Sung and leader Kim Jong Il on the farm.
Watching the precious historic relics with keen attention, he said that the farm founded under the far-reaching plan of the President turned into a combined fruit production base thanks to the loving care of Kim Jong Il.
Laudable successes achieved by the farm would be unthinkable without the devoted efforts exerted by Kim Il Sung and
Kim Jong Il for indicating a bright prospect for the farm, he noted, adding that one should always remember how the history of the sea of apple orchards began at the foot of Chol Pass.
He enjoyed a bird's-eye view of the combined farm from the observation deck which Kim Jong Il mounted and looked round orchards."0 -
If only the choice was that palatable...HYUFD said:
It is really the dog turd or the cat poo election for many Americans now!Richard_Nabavi said:
Apart from that, though, they are fine standard-bearers for the two great American political parties...HYUFD said:...Yougov meanwhile has 35% of Americans believing Hillary is evil, 50% corrupt and 44% dangerous, 35% also think Trump is evil, 51% think Trump is crazy, 48% think he is bigoted and 51% think he is racist...
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wasd said:
I may have to start describing people as 'less than a worm' and telling them that they're 'a blind fool without elementary capacity to judge the situation' and that they're going to be unable to stop their 'poor destiny going to the final ruin'.Moses_ said:They Certainly don't like Park Geun Hye.
Hysterics of Chongwadae Idiot
http://rodong.rep.kp./en/index.php?strPageID=SF01_02_01&newsID=2016-09-21-0008
That should make my meetings far more interesting.
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Do celebrity endorsements really work in politics? If I agree with them, great, if not, it won't stop me enjoying or not their work as performers. When it's comedians its even worse, since they need to get very sincere and lacking in a sense of humour to get the point across, and you get awful stuff like Martin Freeman's 'I was raised to be decent, that's why I vote Labour' pitch.Theuniondivvie said:
Speaking of which.DavidL said:
Is that the brother of the former American President ?Quincel said:
Yes, Dave beat a 'Michael Bartlet'. Who possibly moved to St Albans and began failing to win local elections, judging by a quick Google of his name. Or it's someone else.MaxPB said:
Dave didn't beat Woodward did he? Thought he made a beeline for a safe Labour seat after his detection.TheScreamingEagles said:
Nah, Dave's predecessor in Witney was a Labour MP, a sign of Dave's awesomeness, he turned a Labour held seat into a massive Tory majorityMaxPB said:
This truly is a blue rosette on a donkey constituency.Essexit said:Why are people so sure about the Tories winning this? Witney's had a Lib Dem MP since 2001.
https://twitter.com/IanSams/status/778676594495729665
I get they want Hilary to win - as poor a candidate as she is, she still seems better than Trump - and I cannot see such endorsements doing harm, but it hardly seems worth it.0 -
Luvvies for Clinton.Theuniondivvie said:
Speaking of which.DavidL said:
Is that the brother of the former American President ?Quincel said:
Yes, Dave beat a 'Michael Bartlet'. Who possibly moved to St Albans and began failing to win local elections, judging by a quick Google of his name. Or it's someone else.MaxPB said:
Dave didn't beat Woodward did he? Thought he made a beeline for a safe Labour seat after his detection.TheScreamingEagles said:
Nah, Dave's predecessor in Witney was a Labour MP, a sign of Dave's awesomeness, he turned a Labour held seat into a massive Tory majorityMaxPB said:
This truly is a blue rosette on a donkey constituency.Essexit said:Why are people so sure about the Tories winning this? Witney's had a Lib Dem MP since 2001.
https://twitter.com/IanSams/status/7786765944957296650 -
Especially the West Wing...I can't imagine many of the fans of the programme are swing / undecided voters in the battle between Trump and Clinton.kle4 said:
Do celebrity endorsements really work in politics? If I agree with them, great, if not, it won't stop me enjoying or not their work as performers. When it's comedians its even worse, since they need to get very sincere and lacking in a sense of humour to get the point across, and you get awful stuff like Martin Freeman's 'I was raised to be decent, that's why I vote Labour' pitch.Theuniondivvie said:
Speaking of which.DavidL said:
Is that the brother of the former American President ?Quincel said:
Yes, Dave beat a 'Michael Bartlet'. Who possibly moved to St Albans and began failing to win local elections, judging by a quick Google of his name. Or it's someone else.MaxPB said:
Dave didn't beat Woodward did he? Thought he made a beeline for a safe Labour seat after his detection.TheScreamingEagles said:
Nah, Dave's predecessor in Witney was a Labour MP, a sign of Dave's awesomeness, he turned a Labour held seat into a massive Tory majorityMaxPB said:
This truly is a blue rosette on a donkey constituency.Essexit said:Why are people so sure about the Tories winning this? Witney's had a Lib Dem MP since 2001.
https://twitter.com/IanSams/status/778676594495729665
I get they want Hilary to win - as poor a candidate as she is, she still seems better than Trump - and I cannot see such endorsements doing harm, but it hardly seems worth it.0 -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7edeOEuXdMUHYUFD said:
I think nbc leans slightly Democrat eg today's RCP has Hillary ahead by 1.9% in a 2-way race but we shall see.619 said:
isnt the nbc news poll A+ with 538 though?HYUFD said:
Though Reuters today has Hillary and Trump on 39% each nationally in a 2-way fight, Yougov has Hillary leading Trump by 45% to 44% and the LA Times has Trump ahead 46% to 42%619 said:nbc news poll
nationwide
clinton 43
trump 37
johnson 9
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/2016_Reuters_Tracking_-_Core_Political_9.20_.16_.pdf
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/zcgy71ddez/econToplines.pdf
http://www.latimes.com/politics/
also interesting is that trump is doing worse with non educated whites than romney (+18 vs +24) and a lot worse with educated whites (clinton on +6 compared with romneys +8)
The thing most voters hate is what he says about immigrants and women (69% of voters). This wont help
Yougov meanwhile has 35% of Americans believing Hillary is evil, 50% corrupt and 44% dangerous, 35% also think Trump is evil, 51% think Trump is crazy, 48% think he is bigoted and 51% think he is racist
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/zcgy71ddez/econToplines.pdf0 -
No Rob Lowe though who described Trump running for President as 'a very good thing'kle4 said:
Do celebrity endorsements really work in politics? If I agree with them, great, if not, it won't stop me enjoying or not their work as performers. When it's comedians its even worse, since they need to get very sincere and lacking in a sense of humour to get the point across, and you get awful stuff like Martin Freeman's 'I was raised to be decent, that's why I vote Labour' pitch.Theuniondivvie said:
Speaking of which.DavidL said:
Is that the brother of the former American President ?Quincel said:
Yes, Dave beat a 'Michael Bartlet'. Who possibly moved to St Albans and began failing to win local elections, judging by a quick Google of his name. Or it's someone else.MaxPB said:
Dave didn't beat Woodward did he? Thought he made a beeline for a safe Labour seat after his detection.TheScreamingEagles said:
Nah, Dave's predecessor in Witney was a Labour MP, a sign of Dave's awesomeness, he turned a Labour held seat into a massive Tory majorityMaxPB said:
This truly is a blue rosette on a donkey constituency.Essexit said:Why are people so sure about the Tories winning this? Witney's had a Lib Dem MP since 2001.
https://twitter.com/IanSams/status/778676594495729665
I get they want Hilary to win - as poor a candidate as she is, she still seems better than Trump - and I cannot see such endorsements doing harm, but it hardly seems worth it.
http://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/2016/09/06/rob-lowe-thinks-donald-trump-running-for-president-is-good-thing.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+foxnews/entertainment+(Internal+-+Entertainment+-+Mixed)0 -
I'm convinced Matt D'Ancona has spent ten years imagining he is a leading character in The West Wing!Theuniondivvie said:
Speaking of which.DavidL said:
Is that the brother of the former American President ?Quincel said:
Yes, Dave beat a 'Michael Bartlet'. Who possibly moved to St Albans and began failing to win local elections, judging by a quick Google of his name. Or it's someone else.MaxPB said:
Dave didn't beat Woodward did he? Thought he made a beeline for a safe Labour seat after his detection.TheScreamingEagles said:
Nah, Dave's predecessor in Witney was a Labour MP, a sign of Dave's awesomeness, he turned a Labour held seat into a massive Tory majorityMaxPB said:
This truly is a blue rosette on a donkey constituency.Essexit said:Why are people so sure about the Tories winning this? Witney's had a Lib Dem MP since 2001.
https://twitter.com/IanSams/status/7786765944957296650 -
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"Bill Clinton’s Speaking Fee Overlaps With Foundation Business
Former president was paid by fragrance industry that later benefited from family charity’s Haitian project"
http://www.wsj.com/articles/bill-clintons-speaking-fee-overlaps-with-foundation-business-14744085870 -
I've just sped through the Fabian pamphlet on building a progressive Brexit. Only Stephen Kinnock's chapter had any real intellectual coherence ( whether I agreed with it or not ) and was the basis for an actual policy response. It maybe my prejudices but almost everyone seems to recognise a certain sort of Leave voter currently living in solid Labour seats is going to be the hardest hit. But no one wants to say it out our yet. For a publication dominated by modernisers and Blairites it's astonishing in it's airbrushing out of history of 1997 to 2010. This is a peculiar form of honesty albeit a devastating admission. All of New Labour's gargantuan social spending bought no acquiescence to globalisation at all. So in summary Labour's brighest's current position is " Brexit is a catastrophe that will hit Labour Leave voters hardest. But it was a democratic decision we have to accept. In any case even if we didn't accept it Labour Leave voters won't listen and we're terrified of them. So let's busk some nonsense about turning it into a new 1945 in the hope something turns up. While we're waiting here's an interesting snippet of philosophy from Kinnock Jr. " I'm not saying I can do any better at the moment but it's thin gruel.0
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crappier polls for clinton unfort. still within touching distance though, especially with her superior GOTV in floridaHYUFD said:0 -
Those are god awful numbers for Hillary, especially since Trump isn't even polling that well.HYUFD said:0 -
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"The brief window in which it was cool to be an Etonian has closed. That period was marked not just by Etonian success and visibility – in politics, on the stage, in the media, even on the balcony of Buckingham Palace – but also by a new-found unabashedness in expressing pride at having attended King Henry VI’s Thames-side college, founded for 70 poor scholars in 1440. David Cameron summed it up when he said he was “not embarrassed” that he had gone to “a fantastic school . . . because I had a great education and I know what a great education means”."
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/education/2016/09/english-tragedy-how-boris-dave-and-brexit-were-formed-eton-college0 -
Meanwhile back at the Ranch two interesting pieces of spin in today's press. Firstly some fairly stark language from the Maltese PM who'll hold the rotating presidency in the first six months of next year. I'd hope all sensible people who at least conceed the Maltese are our friends ? Secondly the reporting of May's trip was rather different than No 10's initial spin. We shifted from ' May to woo US inward investors ' to ' May listened to the negotiating demands of Wall St Banks. ' Of course in it's self both of these are chaff. But the mood music grows that noone knows what we want yet because we haven't made up our minds. So sectional interests who don't care about Brexit per se but do care about certain policy outcomes are lobbying like mad to fill the vacuum. I don't blame them.0
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Apart from NBC there is no swing back and even if there was the 1st debate is on Monday which if Trump wins could change the narrative again before it fully filters through619 said:0 -
Not entirely, Tom Hiddleston, Dominic West, Damian Lewis, Eddie Redmayne, Bear Grylls, Prince William and Prince Harry all went to EtonAndyJS said:"The brief window in which it was cool to be an Etonian has closed. That period was marked not just by Etonian success and visibility – in politics, on the stage, in the media, even on the balcony of Buckingham Palace – but also by a new-found unabashedness in expressing pride at having attended King Henry VI’s Thames-side college, founded for 70 poor scholars in 1440. David Cameron summed it up when he said he was “not embarrassed” that he had gone to “a fantastic school . . . because I had a great education and I know what a great education means”."
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/education/2016/09/english-tragedy-how-boris-dave-and-brexit-were-formed-eton-college0 -
True, although maybe the writer was focusing on politics only.HYUFD said:
Not entirely, Tom Hiddleston, Dominic West, Damian Lewis, Eddie Redmayne, Bear Grylls, Prince William and Prince Harry all went to EtonAndyJS said:"The brief window in which it was cool to be an Etonian has closed. That period was marked not just by Etonian success and visibility – in politics, on the stage, in the media, even on the balcony of Buckingham Palace – but also by a new-found unabashedness in expressing pride at having attended King Henry VI’s Thames-side college, founded for 70 poor scholars in 1440. David Cameron summed it up when he said he was “not embarrassed” that he had gone to “a fantastic school . . . because I had a great education and I know what a great education means”."
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/education/2016/09/english-tragedy-how-boris-dave-and-brexit-were-formed-eton-college0 -
Largely but even there the Foreign Secretary is an Old Etonian and our future King will be an Old EtonianAndyJS said:
True, although maybe the writer was focusing on politics only.HYUFD said:
Not entirely, Tom Hiddleston, Dominic West, Damian Lewis, Eddie Redmayne, Bear Grylls, Prince William and Prince Harry all went to EtonAndyJS said:"The brief window in which it was cool to be an Etonian has closed. That period was marked not just by Etonian success and visibility – in politics, on the stage, in the media, even on the balcony of Buckingham Palace – but also by a new-found unabashedness in expressing pride at having attended King Henry VI’s Thames-side college, founded for 70 poor scholars in 1440. David Cameron summed it up when he said he was “not embarrassed” that he had gone to “a fantastic school . . . because I had a great education and I know what a great education means”."
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/education/2016/09/english-tragedy-how-boris-dave-and-brexit-were-formed-eton-college0 -
On the subject of grammar schools:
Opponents of grammar schools say there's no evidence they help to increase social mobility. But is there any evidence that comprehensive schools help to increase social mobility? We know that social mobility hasn't increased since comprehensive schools were introduced, and we know that there was a fairly high level of social mobility between 1945 and 1970 before most grammar schools were abolished. Now of course it could be that there's no relation between any of these things: that it's just a coincidence that there was more social mobility when grammars were popular and less social mobility after comprehensive schools were introduced. But it certainly seems to be true that if the main reason why comprehensives was introduced was in order to further increase the level of social mobility, they haven't succeeded in doing so.0 -
Intriguing suggestion from Carwyn Jones the Wales FM that we be allowed to ' cash in ' our unused and now lapsed transitional restrictions on A8 country FoM. The idea is it would allow a ' win ' for immigration concerns while allowing us to remain a *member* of the Single Market. It's the kind of sophistic wheeze the EU likes and really no bigger concession than reissuing an out of date and unused Gift Voucher. I suspect the train is now well passed that particular station but if we're forced into soft Brexit by economic events it could be a face saver.0
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I'm amazed that this idea never got floated once it became clear that the government had miscalculated/obfuscated the number of migrants they expected. If it had been pushed for earlier, or even as part of Cameron's renegotiation, we might not be where we are.YellowSubmarine said:Intriguing suggestion from Carwyn Jones the Wales FM that we be allowed to ' cash in ' our unused and now lapsed transitional restrictions on A8 country FoM. The idea is it would allow a ' win ' for immigration concerns while allowing us to remain a *member* of the Single Market. It's the kind of sophistic wheeze the EU likes and really no bigger concession than reissuing an out of date and unused Gift Voucher. I suspect the train is now well passed that particular station but if we're forced into soft Brexit by economic events it could be a face saver.
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If re-elected Corbyn planning to appoint a 'Shadow Minister for Peace' and a 'Shadow Minister for Disarmament'
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/jeremy-corbyn-minister-for-peace-diasarmament-nuclear-non-proliferation_uk_57e29fc9e4b0e81629a8ab13?icid=maing-grid7|main5|dl1|sec1_lnk2&pLid=-93503951_uk0 -
The only thing comprehensives were introduced to further is egalitarian ideology.AndyJS said:On the subject of grammar schools:
Opponents of grammar schools say there's no evidence they help to increase social mobility. But is there any evidence that comprehensive schools help to increase social mobility? We know that social mobility hasn't increased since comprehensive schools were introduced, and we know that there was a fairly high level of social mobility between 1945 and 1970 before most grammar schools were abolished. Now of course it could be that there's no relation between any of these things: that it's just a coincidence that there was more social mobility when grammars were popular and less social mobility after comprehensive schools were introduced. But it certainly seems to be true that if the main reason why comprehensives was introduced was in order to further increase the level of social mobility, they haven't succeeded in doing so.0 -
Presumably he wants separate roles so they can fight each other?HYUFD said:If re-elected Corbyn planning to appoint a 'Shadow Minister for Peace' and a 'Shadow Minister for Disarmament'
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Talking about HaitiMP_SE said:"Bill Clinton’s Speaking Fee Overlaps With Foundation Business
Former president was paid by fragrance industry that later benefited from family charity’s Haitian project"
http://www.wsj.com/articles/bill-clintons-speaking-fee-overlaps-with-foundation-business-1474408587
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/09/21/former-haitian-senate-president-world-trusted-clintons-help-haitian-people-deceived/0 -
https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/09/21/little-change-presidential-race-after-clintons-tro/
more than half of all voters thinks that trump supporters are racist0 -
Indeed, it was Blair's failure to use it in 2004 (unlike France and Germany) which was probably the pivotal factor in BrexitYellowSubmarine said:Intriguing suggestion from Carwyn Jones the Wales FM that we be allowed to ' cash in ' our unused and now lapsed transitional restrictions on A8 country FoM. The idea is it would allow a ' win ' for immigration concerns while allowing us to remain a *member* of the Single Market. It's the kind of sophistic wheeze the EU likes and really no bigger concession than reissuing an out of date and unused Gift Voucher. I suspect the train is now well passed that particular station but if we're forced into soft Brexit by economic events it could be a face saver.
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Yes only Corbyn could create Shadow Ministers for Peace and Disarmament who end up at war. Goodnightwilliamglenn said:
Presumably he wants separate roles so they can fight each other?HYUFD said:If re-elected Corbyn planning to appoint a 'Shadow Minister for Peace' and a 'Shadow Minister for Disarmament'
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Had a call from a senior TV news editor (possibly off the record so I won't identify him) - confirmed what I've heard from party contacts that my proposal on Labour List for advisory Shadow Cabinet elections with Corbyn free to top up is getting some traction:
http://labourlist.org/2016/09/nick-palmer-coming-together-my-blueprint-for-peace-in-the-plp/
We'll know more on Saturday (maybe).0 -
Which states is Gary Johnson strong in? I'm surprised he's on 7% nationally.619 said:https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/09/21/little-change-presidential-race-after-clintons-tro/
more than half of all voters thinks that trump supporters are racist0 -
utah and ohio i thinkAndyJS said:
Which states is Gary Johnson strong in? I'm surprised he's on 7% nationally.619 said:https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/09/21/little-change-presidential-race-after-clintons-tro/
more than half of all voters thinks that trump supporters are racist0 -
The second sentence, yes. The first, no. If someone plants a skip bomb in a crowded street, that's terrorism. Why they did it doesn't alter that.weejonnie said:
Either that or someone with refusecontainerphobia. Of course jumping to the wrong conclusion as to which terrorists caused the attack can have serious political consequences.Dromedary said:
Someone planted a skip bomb in a busy street. That's a terrorist attack.SquareRoot said:
These things often ARE terrorist related but its best to FIND OUT FIRST before screaming terrorist.
Agreed, when people didn't yet know whether it was a freak accident or deliberate. But the US government, the BBC, etc., said even after they declared it was a bomb in a crowded street that it wasn't yet known whether terror was involved or not. Nobody should allow the message there into their head. All deliberate planting of bombs in streets crowded with civilians is terrorism.SquareRoot said:
Yup but when it went off people didn't know initially what it was, it could have been an accidental propane cylinder going off .. Best to take a deep breath before saying terrorist or even have some FACTS,.Dromedary said:
Someone planted a skip bomb in a busy street. That's a terrorist attack.
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Owen Smith is approaching 100/1 on Betfair Exchange.0
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"Tuesday he said he would tell EU officials who had criticized him "f**k you!"
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/09/21/asia/philippines-duterte-de-lima-pacquiao-drug-war/index.html
Now that's a leader I can get behind!0 -
Hasn't he forgotten a shadow Minister for Motherhood and another for unicorns?HYUFD said:If re-elected Corbyn planning to appoint a 'Shadow Minister for Peace' and a 'Shadow Minister for Disarmament'
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/jeremy-corbyn-minister-for-peace-diasarmament-nuclear-non-proliferation_uk_57e29fc9e4b0e81629a8ab13?icid=maing-grid7|main5|dl1|sec1_lnk2&pLid=-93503951_uk0 -
A Minister for Unicorns? That's the kind of entrepreneurial industrial policy we need.MTimT said:
Hasn't he forgotten a shadow Minister for Motherhood and another for unicorns?HYUFD said:If re-elected Corbyn planning to appoint a 'Shadow Minister for Peace' and a 'Shadow Minister for Disarmament'
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/jeremy-corbyn-minister-for-peace-diasarmament-nuclear-non-proliferation_uk_57e29fc9e4b0e81629a8ab13?icid=maing-grid7|main5|dl1|sec1_lnk2&pLid=-93503951_uk0 -
That's usually true but it doesn't necessarily follow, because the definition of terrorism involves the motive. If the bomb was intended to break open a bank vault or murder an ex-girlfriend then that wouldn't be terrorism, even if there were civilians in the street.Dromedary said:All deliberate planting of bombs in streets crowded with civilians is terrorism.
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The important thing in the grammar school/comprehensive school debate is to stop lying about the current situation.AndyJS said:On the subject of grammar schools:
Opponents of grammar schools say there's no evidence they help to increase social mobility. But is there any evidence that comprehensive schools help to increase social mobility? We know that social mobility hasn't increased since comprehensive schools were introduced, and we know that there was a fairly high level of social mobility between 1945 and 1970 before most grammar schools were abolished. Now of course it could be that there's no relation between any of these things: that it's just a coincidence that there was more social mobility when grammars were popular and less social mobility after comprehensive schools were introduced. But it certainly seems to be true that if the main reason why comprehensives was introduced was in order to further increase the level of social mobility, they haven't succeeded in doing so.
We have, right now, "comprehensives" that are equal to independent schools. We also have "comprehensives" that are just as bad as the worst secondary-modern. There is no equality *right now*.
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Or indeed if the intention was to cause mayhem for the sick pleasure or it.edmundintokyo said:
That's usually true but it doesn't necessarily follow, because the definition of terrorism involves the motive. If the bomb was intended to break open a bank vault or murder an ex-girlfriend then that wouldn't be terrorism, even if there were civilians in the street.Dromedary said:All deliberate planting of bombs in streets crowded with civilians is terrorism.
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He's doing well in south west e.g Colorado utahAndyJS said:
Which states is Gary Johnson strong in? I'm surprised he's on 7% nationally.619 said:https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/09/21/little-change-presidential-race-after-clintons-tro/
more than half of all voters thinks that trump supporters are racist0 -
The Guardian's front page lead:
UK economy defies gloom after EU shock
Fears that Britain will slide into a post-referendum recession have been allayed after a Guardian analysis showed the latest news on the economy has confounded analysts’ gloomy expectations, with consumer spending strong, unemployment low and the housing market holding steady.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/sep/21/post-referendum-gloom-fears-confounded-economic-evidence
(Print headline - shown - differs from online)0 -
On reflection - it was a 'Shock' to the Commentariat - but not the consumer, who, after all, voted for it......CarlottaVance said:The Guardian's front page lead:
UK economy defies gloom after EU shock
I recall reading of the reaction in Britain after the fall of France in WWII - despite, supposedly, the world's mightiest army - shock - but a certain grim determination that things would be simpler if it was 'just us' (and a quarter of the world in the Empire as we 'stood alone'....)0 -
Yawn....CarlottaVance said:
On reflection - it was a 'Shock' to the Commentariat - but not the consumer, who, after all, voted for it......CarlottaVance said:The Guardian's front page lead:
UK economy defies gloom after EU shock
I recall reading of the reaction in Britain after the fall of France in WWII - despite, supposedly, the world's mightiest army - shock - but a certain grim determination that things would be simpler if it was 'just us' (and a quarter of the world in the Empire as we 'stood alone'....)0 -
Since consumer confidence (and spending) plays a critical part in how the economy performs the mis-direction by Osborne with his 'punishment budget' (quickly scrapped) before the referendum could easily have turned into a self fulfilling prophesy.IanB2 said:
Yawn....CarlottaVance said:
On reflection - it was a 'Shock' to the Commentariat - but not the consumer, who, after all, voted for it......CarlottaVance said:The Guardian's front page lead:
UK economy defies gloom after EU shock
I recall reading of the reaction in Britain after the fall of France in WWII - despite, supposedly, the world's mightiest army - shock - but a certain grim determination that things would be simpler if it was 'just us' (and a quarter of the world in the Empire as we 'stood alone'....)
Fortunately for all concerned, the British voter saw through that......
Anyone might think bitter Remainers are disappointed the economy hasn't tanked..as Osborne predicted.......0 -
Not sure how I feel about this:
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-37436417
Clearly the law in the fifties was wrong - but surely it is that law that now stands in the dock, not Alan Turing?
Yes, it was wrong to persecute gay men - and for those still alive, if it helps, then great - but it feels a bit like virtue signalling - like the slavery issue - where critics generally forget that slavery was a major African trade and it was the Royal Navy which destroyed the then global slave trade......better to spend time improving the lives of the living - like current slavery.....0 -
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I think he's the best around - often capturing multiple issues in a single cartoon - some of his on Grammar Schools have hit the nail on the head:SimonStClare said:Matt - on Armageddon...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/01/matt-cartoons-september-2016/
http://tinyurl.com/juc76t4
http://tinyurl.com/zjlm5d9
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So far we haven't had anything other than devaluation (always an easy sugar rush) and a degree of business uncertainty. In the meantime we have all the benefits and immigration of being in the EU and a currency that is 10% cheaper.CarlottaVance said:The Guardian's front page lead:
UK economy defies gloom after EU shock
Fears that Britain will slide into a post-referendum recession have been allayed after a Guardian analysis showed the latest news on the economy has confounded analysts’ gloomy expectations, with consumer spending strong, unemployment low and the housing market holding steady.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/sep/21/post-referendum-gloom-fears-confounded-economic-evidence
(Print headline - shown - differs from online)
Waiting for Article 50 is just like waiting for Godot. When that happens we shall see further market shocks, and additional ones when hard Brexit starts to look likely.
Britain will do alright in the long term, particularly the outward looking and innovative parts of Remania, the backwaters of Leaverstan will continue their decline.0 -
Quite possibly.foxinsoxuk said:
Britain will do alright in the long term, particularly the outward looking and innovative parts of Remania, the backwaters of Leaverstan will continue their decline.CarlottaVance said:The Guardian's front page lead:
UK economy defies gloom after EU shock
Fears that Britain will slide into a post-referendum recession have been allayed after a Guardian analysis showed the latest news on the economy has confounded analysts’ gloomy expectations, with consumer spending strong, unemployment low and the housing market holding steady.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/sep/21/post-referendum-gloom-fears-confounded-economic-evidence
(Print headline - shown - differs from online)
But Remainia would be well advised to help Leaverstan if it doesn't want to be outvoted again - or have they 'learned their mistake' and won't call another referendum?
So far (for the hard of thinking - this is not a 'Brexit' scenario, its a VOTE for Brexit scenario)....
......a vote to leave would result in a recession, a spike in inflation and a rise in unemployment....... unemployment would increase by around 500,000..... CPI inflation rate higher by 2.3 percentage points after a year.
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/524967/hm_treasury_analysis_the_immediate_economic_impact_of_leaving_the_eu_web.pdf
Does not yet appear to be coming to pass......0 -
That prediction was based on Article 50 being invoked next day.CarlottaVance said:
Quite possibly.foxinsoxuk said:
Britain will do alright in the long term, particularly the outward looking and innovative parts of Remania, the backwaters of Leaverstan will continue their decline.CarlottaVance said:The Guardian's front page lead:
UK economy defies gloom after EU shock
Fears that Britain will slide into a post-referendum recession have been allayed after a Guardian analysis showed the latest news on the economy has confounded analysts’ gloomy expectations, with consumer spending strong, unemployment low and the housing market holding steady.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/sep/21/post-referendum-gloom-fears-confounded-economic-evidence
(Print headline - shown - differs from online)
But Remainia would be well advised to help Leaverstan if it doesn't want to be outvoted again - or have they 'learned their mistake' and won't call another referendum?
So far (for the hard of thinking - this is not a 'Brexit' scenario, its a VOTE for Brexit scenario)....
......a vote to leave would result in a recession, a spike in inflation and a rise in unemployment....... unemployment would increase by around 500,000..... CPI inflation rate higher by 2.3 percentage points after a year.
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/524967/hm_treasury_analysis_the_immediate_economic_impact_of_leaving_the_eu_web.pdf
Does not yet appear to be coming to pass......
At the moment we have schrodingers Brexit and no-one brave enough to open the box.
Apart from the devaluation nothing has happened aside from Leavers waving their willies in the air.0 -
I certainly agree that these arguments are a little silly. The problem is that experts (at least they claimed to be experts at the time) predicted a recession after we voted to leave the EU. You didn't have to be a genius to work out that the pound would fall, the only question was how much? (TSE was predicting a 40% fall in the early hours of June 24).foxinsoxuk said:
So far we haven't had anything other than devaluation (always an easy sugar rush) and a degree of business uncertainty. In the meantime we have all the benefits and immigration of being in the EU and a currency that is 10% cheaper.CarlottaVance said:The Guardian's front page lead:
UK economy defies gloom after EU shock
Fears that Britain will slide into a post-referendum recession have been allayed after a Guardian analysis showed the latest news on the economy has confounded analysts’ gloomy expectations, with consumer spending strong, unemployment low and the housing market holding steady.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/sep/21/post-referendum-gloom-fears-confounded-economic-evidence
(Print headline - shown - differs from online)
Waiting for Article 50 is just like waiting for Godot. When that happens we shall see further market shocks, and additional ones when hard Brexit starts to look likely.
Britain will do alright in the long term, particularly the outward looking and innovative parts of Remania, the backwaters of Leaverstan will continue their decline.
As you rightly say, a fall in the value of the currency is like a sugar rush and would help the economy to a certain extent. And it makes Carney's claim that he saved the economy by cutting interest rates by 0.25 pp look thoroughly stupid. And, of course, we now know that his threats of interest rate rises were a lie. But given that a fall in the value of the pound was expected, just how bad did the experts think things would be for us to have a recession?
The problem is that once again it looks like the experts have cried wolf.0 -
Link?foxinsoxuk said:
That prediction was based on Article 50 being invoked next day.CarlottaVance said:
Quite possibly.foxinsoxuk said:
Britain will do alright in the long term, particularly the outward looking and innovative parts of Remania, the backwaters of Leaverstan will continue their decline.CarlottaVance said:The Guardian's front page lead:
UK economy defies gloom after EU shock
Fears that Britain will slide into a post-referendum recession have been allayed after a Guardian analysis showed the latest news on the economy has confounded analysts’ gloomy expectations, with consumer spending strong, unemployment low and the housing market holding steady.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/sep/21/post-referendum-gloom-fears-confounded-economic-evidence
(Print headline - shown - differs from online)
But Remainia would be well advised to help Leaverstan if it doesn't want to be outvoted again - or have they 'learned their mistake' and won't call another referendum?
So far (for the hard of thinking - this is not a 'Brexit' scenario, its a VOTE for Brexit scenario)....
......a vote to leave would result in a recession, a spike in inflation and a rise in unemployment....... unemployment would increase by around 500,000..... CPI inflation rate higher by 2.3 percentage points after a year.
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/524967/hm_treasury_analysis_the_immediate_economic_impact_of_leaving_the_eu_web.pdf
Does not yet appear to be coming to pass......0 -
I describe devaluation as a sugar rush because it is empty calories that gives a quick stimulus, but no real nutrition to the economy. Serial devaluation is not a sign of economic strength. It does seem hard to set off inflation (surely the governments plan is to inflate away our government and private debt?).tlg86 said:
I certainly agree that these arguments are a little silly.foxinsoxuk said:
So far we haven't had anything other than devaluation (always an easy sugar rush) and a degree of business uncertainty. In the meantime we have all the benefits and immigration of being in the EU and a currency that is 10% cheaper.CarlottaVance said:The Guardian's front page lead:
UK economy defies gloom after EU shock
Fears that Britain will slide into a post-referendum recession have been allayed after a Guardian analysis showed the latest news on the economy has confounded analysts’ gloomy expectations, with consumer spending strong, unemployment low and the housing market holding steady.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/sep/21/post-referendum-gloom-fears-confounded-economic-evidence
(Print headline - shown - differs from online)
Waiting for Article 50 is just like waiting for Godot. When that happens we shall see further market shocks, and additional ones when hard Brexit starts to look likely.
Britain will do alright in the long term, particularly the outward looking and innovative parts of Remania, the backwaters of Leaverstan will continue their decline.
The problem is that once again it looks like the experts have cried wolf.
I see the markets as panicking sheep that overreact to every bit of news. In general things are never as bad as they seem nor as good as they seem.
I made about £500 on my political bets on June 24, but about 25 times that on my stocks. I sold a lot of equities that looked vulnerable to Brexit in the weeks before the vote, and bought most of them back a few weeks after at about 15% discount.
I am now preparing for Article 50, where there will be a similar effect. I favour stocks earning in forex, though still bearish on commodities and the Far East. Whether Trump wins or not (I think not) the anti-China rhetoric is going to drag the US into an atmosphere of trade war.
0 -
As they did over the UK not joining the EURO......often, the same experts.....tlg86 said:
The problem is that once again it looks like the experts have cried wolf.foxinsoxuk said:
So far we haven't had anything other than devaluation (always an easy sugar rush) and a degree of business uncertainty. In the meantime we have all the benefits and immigration of being in the EU and a currency that is 10% cheaper.CarlottaVance said:The Guardian's front page lead:
UK economy defies gloom after EU shock
Fears that Britain will slide into a post-referendum recession have been allayed after a Guardian analysis showed the latest news on the economy has confounded analysts’ gloomy expectations, with consumer spending strong, unemployment low and the housing market holding steady.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/sep/21/post-referendum-gloom-fears-confounded-economic-evidence
(Print headline - shown - differs from online)
Waiting for Article 50 is just like waiting for Godot. When that happens we shall see further market shocks, and additional ones when hard Brexit starts to look likely.
Britain will do alright in the long term, particularly the outward looking and innovative parts of Remania, the backwaters of Leaverstan will continue their decline.0 -
David Cameron promised to invoke Article 50 the next day. That was the premise of the prediction.CarlottaVance said:
Link?foxinsoxuk said:
That prediction was based on Article 50 being invoked next day.CarlottaVance said:
Quite possibly.foxinsoxuk said:
Britain will do alright in the long term, particularly the outward looking and innovative parts of Remania, the backwaters of Leaverstan will continue their decline.CarlottaVance said:The Guardian's front page lead:
UK economy defies gloom after EU shock
Fears that Britain will slide into a post-referendum recession have been allayed after a Guardian analysis showed the latest news on the economy has confounded analysts’ gloomy expectations, with consumer spending strong, unemployment low and the housing market holding steady.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/sep/21/post-referendum-gloom-fears-confounded-economic-evidence
(Print headline - shown - differs from online)
But Remainia would be well advised to help Leaverstan if it doesn't want to be outvoted again - or have they 'learned their mistake' and won't call another referendum?
So far (for the hard of thinking - this is not a 'Brexit' scenario, its a VOTE for Brexit scenario)....
......a vote to leave would result in a recession, a spike in inflation and a rise in unemployment....... unemployment would increase by around 500,000..... CPI inflation rate higher by 2.3 percentage points after a year.
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/524967/hm_treasury_analysis_the_immediate_economic_impact_of_leaving_the_eu_web.pdf
Does not yet appear to be coming to pass......
When A50 is invoked I expect a market overreaction once more, and again when hard Brexit happens. What happens in the real economy will be much slower.
In the long term I think Britain will be changed by Brexit: more inward looking, more exposed to globalisation, a stagnant economy, increasing social division, and a growing Remania/Leaverstan gap.0 -
Spot on. I like the Schroedinger'sBrexit description.foxinsoxuk said:
That prediction was based on Article 50 being invoked next day.CarlottaVance said:
Quite possibly.foxinsoxuk said:
Britain will do alright in the long term, particularly the outward looking and innovative parts of Remania, the backwaters of Leaverstan will continue their decline.CarlottaVance said:The Guardian's front page lead:
UK economy defies gloom after EU shock
Fears that Britain will slide into a post-referendum recession have been allayed after a Guardian analysis showed the latest news on the economy has confounded analysts’ gloomy expectations, with consumer spending strong, unemployment low and the housing market holding steady.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/sep/21/post-referendum-gloom-fears-confounded-economic-evidence
(Print headline - shown - differs from online)
But Remainia would be well advised to help Leaverstan if it doesn't want to be outvoted again - or have they 'learned their mistake' and won't call another referendum?
So far (for the hard of thinking - this is not a 'Brexit' scenario, its a VOTE for Brexit scenario)....
......a vote to leave would result in a recession, a spike in inflation and a rise in unemployment....... unemployment would increase by around 500,000..... CPI inflation rate higher by 2.3 percentage points after a year.
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/524967/hm_treasury_analysis_the_immediate_economic_impact_of_leaving_the_eu_web.pdf
Does not yet appear to be coming to pass......
At the moment we have schrodingers Brexit and no-one brave enough to open the box.
Apart from the devaluation nothing has happened aside from Leavers waving their willies in the air.0 -
I think there has been a certain rewriting of history about Euro membership and the uk. It was certainly not the 'consensus' of economists that the uk would be better off inside the Euro. Indeed, when I was at Goldman in the late 1990s, the research department published a "EuroCarlottaVance said:
As they did over the UK not joining the EURO......often, the same experts.....tlg86 said:
The problem is that once again it looks like the experts have cried wolf.foxinsoxuk said:
So far we haven't had anything other than devaluation (always an easy sugar rush) and a degree of business uncertainty. In the meantime we have all the benefits and immigration of being in the EU and a currency that is 10% cheaper.CarlottaVance said:The Guardian's front page lead:
UK economy defies gloom after EU shock
Fears that Britain will slide into a post-referendum recession have been allayed after a Guardian analysis showed the latest news on the economy has confounded analysts’ gloomy expectations, with consumer spending strong, unemployment low and the housing market holding steady.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/sep/21/post-referendum-gloom-fears-confounded-economic-evidence
(Print headline - shown - differs from online)
Waiting for Article 50 is just like waiting for Godot. When that happens we shall see further market shocks, and additional ones when hard Brexit starts to look likely.
Britain will do alright in the long term, particularly the outward looking and innovative parts of Remania, the backwaters of Leaverstan will continue their decline.
primer" in late 1998, that presented as its conclusion on the front cover (and I'm quoting from memory here so am liable to be inaccurate): it is by no means clear that the lower transaction costs that come from being a Euro member will outweigh the inflexibilties. It, like many others (including Martin Wolf) questioned whether the Euro was an optimium currency zone.0 -
And he didn't.foxinsoxuk said:
David Cameron promised to invoke Article 50 the next day.CarlottaVance said:
Link?foxinsoxuk said:
That prediction was based on Article 50 being invoked next day.CarlottaVance said:
Quite possibly.foxinsoxuk said:
Britain will do alright in the long term, particularly the outward looking and innovative parts of Remania, the backwaters of Leaverstan will continue their decline.CarlottaVance said:The Guardian's front page lead:
UK economy defies gloom after EU shock
Fears that Britain will slide into a post-referendum recession have been allayed after a Guardian analysis showed the latest news on the economy has confounded analysts’ gloomy expectations, with consumer spending strong, unemployment low and the housing market holding steady.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/sep/21/post-referendum-gloom-fears-confounded-economic-evidence
(Print headline - shown - differs from online)
But Remainia would be well advised to help Leaverstan if it doesn't want to be outvoted again - or have they 'learned their mistake' and won't call another referendum?
So far (for the hard of thinking - this is not a 'Brexit' scenario, its a VOTE for Brexit scenario)....
......a vote to leave would result in a recession, a spike in inflation and a rise in unemployment....... unemployment would increase by around 500,000..... CPI inflation rate higher by 2.3 percentage points after a year.
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/524967/hm_treasury_analysis_the_immediate_economic_impact_of_leaving_the_eu_web.pdf
Does not yet appear to be coming to pass......
Also the Treasury document suggests that there might have to be a sharp tightening of fiscal and monetary policy to restore credibility (which wasn't included in their forecast - i.e. things might be very much worse) - but the reverse happened.
So were Cameron & Osbprne fools or knaves?0 -
williamglenn said:
A Minister for Unicorns? That's the kind of entrepreneurial industrial policy we need.MTimT said:
Hasn't he forgotten a shadow Minister for Motherhood and another for unicorns?HYUFD said:If re-elected Corbyn planning to appoint a 'Shadow Minister for Peace' and a 'Shadow Minister for Disarmament'
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/jeremy-corbyn-minister-for-peace-diasarmament-nuclear-non-proliferation_uk_57e29fc9e4b0e81629a8ab13?icid=maing-grid7|main5|dl1|sec1_lnk2&pLid=-93503951_uk
I believe official Labour party policy is Owls.....so naturally a Minister for Owlswilliamglenn said:
A Minister for Unicorns? That's the kind of entrepreneurial industrial policy we need.MTimT said:
Hasn't he forgotten a shadow Minister for Motherhood and another for unicorns?HYUFD said:If re-elected Corbyn planning to appoint a 'Shadow Minister for Peace' and a 'Shadow Minister for Disarmament'
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/jeremy-corbyn-minister-for-peace-diasarmament-nuclear-non-proliferation_uk_57e29fc9e4b0e81629a8ab13?icid=maing-grid7|main5|dl1|sec1_lnk2&pLid=-93503951_uk0 -
Nick du BoisCarlottaVance said:
As they did over the UK not joining the EURO......often, the same experts.....tlg86 said:
The problem is that once again it looks like the experts have cried wolf.foxinsoxuk said:
So far we haven't had anything other than devaluation (always an easy sugar rush) and a degree of business uncertainty. In the meantime we have all the benefits and immigration of being in the EU and a currency that is 10% cheaper.CarlottaVance said:The Guardian's front page lead:
UK economy defies gloom after EU shock
Fears that Britain will slide into a post-referendum recession have been allayed after a Guardian analysis showed the latest news on the economy has confounded analysts’ gloomy expectations, with consumer spending strong, unemployment low and the housing market holding steady.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/sep/21/post-referendum-gloom-fears-confounded-economic-evidence
(Print headline - shown - differs from online)
Waiting for Article 50 is just like waiting for Godot. When that happens we shall see further market shocks, and additional ones when hard Brexit starts to look likely.
Britain will do alright in the long term, particularly the outward looking and innovative parts of Remania, the backwaters of Leaverstan will continue their decline.
More I read about economic forecasters more I believe Galbraith-that they exist only to make astrologers respectable https://t.co/ao3rbJSy4r0 -
LibDems currently 1/100 on Betfair for 2nd place, £7661 placed.
Also 11/1 to win!0 -
Both! Though each of them are more competent than the current cabinet.CarlottaVance said:
And he didn't.foxinsoxuk said:
David Cameron promised to invoke Article 50 the next day.CarlottaVance said:
Link?foxinsoxuk said:
That prediction was based on Article 50 being invoked next day.CarlottaVance said:
Quite possibly.foxinsoxuk said:
Britain will do alright in the long term, particularly the outward looking and innovative parts of Remania, the backwaters of Leaverstan will continue their decline.CarlottaVance said:The Guardian's front page lead:
UK economy defies gloom after EU shock
Fears that Britain will slide into a post-referendum recession have been allayed after a Guardian analysis showed the latest news on the economy has confounded analysts’ gloomy expectations, with consumer spending strong, unemployment low and the housing market holding steady.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/sep/21/post-referendum-gloom-fears-confounded-economic-evidence
(Print headline - shown - differs from online)
But Remainia would be well advised to help Leaverstan if it doesn't want to be outvoted again - or have they 'learned their mistake' and won't call another referendum?
So far (for the hard of thinking - this is not a 'Brexit' scenario, its a VOTE for Brexit scenario)....
......a vote to leave would result in a recession, a spike in inflation and a rise in unemployment....... unemployment would increase by around 500,000..... CPI inflation rate higher by 2.3 percentage points after a year.
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/524967/hm_treasury_analysis_the_immediate_economic_impact_of_leaving_the_eu_web.pdf
Does not yet appear to be coming to pass......
Also the Treasury document suggests that there might have to be a sharp tightening of fiscal and monetary policy to restore credibility (which wasn't included in their forecast - i.e. things might be very much worse) - but the reverse happened.
So were Cameron & Osbprne fools or knaves?
I would exclude Hammond from that at present. He has simply been silent. After the Autumn statement we will know if he is any good. It does sound as if the pretence of austerity has been chucked out, and it is quite likely that he will find some of the billions needed to keep the NHS lurching zombie-like onwards.0 -
There were a fair number: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/1371736.stmrcs1000 said:
I think there has been a certain rewriting of history about Euro membership and the uk. It was certainly not the 'consensus' of economists that the uk would be better off inside the EuroCarlottaVance said:
As they did over the UK not joining the EURO......often, the same experts.....tlg86 said:
The problem is that once again it looks like the experts have cried wolf.foxinsoxuk said:
So far we haven't had anything other than devaluation (always an easy sugar rush) and a degree of business uncertainty. In the meantime we have all the benefits and immigration of being in the EU and a currency that is 10% cheaper.CarlottaVance said:The Guardian's front page lead:
UK economy defies gloom after EU shock
Fears that Britain will slide into a post-referendum recession have been allayed after a Guardian analysis showed the latest news on the economy has confounded analysts’ gloomy expectations, with consumer spending strong, unemployment low and the housing market holding steady.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/sep/21/post-referendum-gloom-fears-confounded-economic-evidence
(Print headline - shown - differs from online)
Waiting for Article 50 is just like waiting for Godot. When that happens we shall see further market shocks, and additional ones when hard Brexit starts to look likely.
Britain will do alright in the long term, particularly the outward looking and innovative parts of Remania, the backwaters of Leaverstan will continue their decline.
Also:
The future of car production at Nissan's factory in Sunderland could be at risk, the automaker's president and chief executive Carlos Ghosn has warned.
In an interview with BBC News Online, Mr Ghosn made it clear that the plant's future would depend on whether the UK adopted the euro.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2271521.stm0 -
It is the law that stands in the dock and any references to it being an Alan Turing Law is just because he was a high profile victim and is like referring to Megan's Law.CarlottaVance said:Not sure how I feel about this:
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-37436417
Clearly the law in the fifties was wrong - but surely it is that law that now stands in the dock, not Alan Turing?
Yes, it was wrong to persecute gay men - and for those still alive, if it helps, then great - but it feels a bit like virtue signalling - like the slavery issue - where critics generally forget that slavery was a major African trade and it was the Royal Navy which destroyed the then global slave trade......better to spend time improving the lives of the living - like current slavery.....
Whether it was a bad proposal or otherwise was one thing during the election campaign, but as it was a manifesto commitment it is surely only right that the law is changed now rather than renege on a manifesto commitment?
As for comparisons with the slave trade and modern day virtue signalling the key difference between the two cases is that there are people alive today who were affected by the law in the 50s. Either the actual direct victims, or the children/grandchildren of the victims of the 50s law.
On the other hand the UK abolished slavery in 1833. Not only is no former slave alive today, there is probably not a single great, great grandchild of a former slave alive today.0 -
Unlike the Labour Party, the only party to have ever cut NHS spending, that pledged to cut spending on the NHS in 2010 and pledged less spending than the Tories in 2015.foxinsoxuk said:Both! Though each of them are more competent than the current cabinet.
I would exclude Hammond from that at present. He has simply been silent. After the Autumn statement we will know if he is any good. It does sound as if the pretence of austerity has been chucked out, and it is quite likely that he will find some of the billions needed to keep the NHS lurching zombie-like onwards.0 -
He's strong in the South West: places where Trump (for some reason) doesn't resonate with traditional Republicans. So: Utah, Colorado, and Arizona are the places I'd expect him to score highest. (And perhaps Nevada.)AndyJS said:
Which states is Gary Johnson strong in? I'm surprised he's on 7% nationally.619 said:https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/09/21/little-change-presidential-race-after-clintons-tro/
more than half of all voters thinks that trump supporters are racist0 -
Leave EU
Tonight, the Welsh Assembly voted against supporting continued full membership of the Single Market https://t.co/7sCpwVd2Mz0 -
-
Yes, the supporter of a brutal military Junta that Bill Clinton sent troops to depose is definitely who we should listen to about Clinton as they will have no bias at all.weejonnie said:
Talking about HaitiMP_SE said:"Bill Clinton’s Speaking Fee Overlaps With Foundation Business
Former president was paid by fragrance industry that later benefited from family charity’s Haitian project"
http://www.wsj.com/articles/bill-clintons-speaking-fee-overlaps-with-foundation-business-1474408587
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/09/21/former-haitian-senate-president-world-trusted-clintons-help-haitian-people-deceived/
What next, "Osama Bin Laden not a fan of Obama"?0 -
Turing was convicted of Gross Indecency with a 19 year old man. That would have been illegal as late as 1994. If the man had been 17 then the year 2000.Philip_Thompson said:
It is the law that stands in the dock and any references to it being an Alan Turing Law is just because he was a high profile victim and is like referring to Megan's Law.CarlottaVance said:Not sure how I feel about this:
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-37436417
Clearly the law in the fifties was wrong - but surely it is that law that now stands in the dock, not Alan Turing?
Yes, it was wrong to persecute gay men - and for those still alive, if it helps, then great - but it feels a bit like virtue signalling - like the slavery issue - where critics generally forget that slavery was a major African trade and it was the Royal Navy which destroyed the then global slave trade......better to spend time improving the lives of the living - like current slavery.....
Whether it was a bad proposal or otherwise was one thing during the election campaign, but as it was a manifesto commitment it is surely only right that the law is changed now rather than renege on a manifesto commitment?
As for comparisons with the slave trade and modern day virtue signalling the key difference between the two cases is that there are people alive today who were affected by the law in the 50s. Either the actual direct victims, or the children/grandchildren of the victims of the 50s law.
On the other hand the UK abolished slavery in 1833. Not only is no former slave alive today, there is probably not a single great, great grandchild of a former slave alive today.
Pardoning all cases of GI in a blanket manner would be a fairly blunt instrument, a bit like the "shot at dawn" pardon.
0 -
This is quite fun - https://medium.com/@nntaleb/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577#.211c6e2of
"What we have been seeing worldwide, from India to the UK to the US, is the rebellion against the inner circle of no-skin-in-the-game policymaking “clerks” and journalists-insiders, that class of paternalistic semi-intellectual experts with some Ivy league, Oxford-Cambridge, or similar label-driven education who are telling the rest of us 1) what to do, 2) what to eat, 3) how to speak, 4) how to think… and 5) who to vote for...
The IYI thinks this criticism of IYIs means “everybody is an idiot”, not realizing that their group represents, as we said, a tiny minority — but they don’t like their sense of entitlement to be challenged and although they treat the rest of humans as inferiors, they don’t like it when the waterhose is turned to the opposite direction (what the French call arroseur arrosé)."0 -
On government plans spending on the NHS is projected to be 6.6% of GDP by 2020. This is despite the ageing population and rise in obesity related illnesses. On top of this we have a staffing crisis, and deteriating national performance as in the graphs in this short clip:Philip_Thompson said:
Unlike the Labour Party, the only party to have ever cut NHS spending, that pledged to cut spending on the NHS in 2010 and pledged less spending than the Tories in 2015.foxinsoxuk said:Both! Though each of them are more competent than the current cabinet.
I would exclude Hammond from that at present. He has simply been silent. After the Autumn statement we will know if he is any good. It does sound as if the pretence of austerity has been chucked out, and it is quite likely that he will find some of the billions needed to keep the NHS lurching zombie-like onwards.
https://youtu.be/nsCDAp_aFEg
It is the voters of Leaverstan (Older, poorer and more provincial) that are most reliant on the NHS. Best not piss off the core vote.0 -
Have you seen the active military personnel poll where Johnson is polling neck and neck with Trump (Clinton about 11%)?rcs1000 said:
He's strong in the South West: places where Trump (for some reason) doesn't resonate with traditional Republicans. So: Utah, Colorado, and Arizona are the places I'd expect him to score highest. (And perhaps Nevada.)AndyJS said:
Which states is Gary Johnson strong in? I'm surprised he's on 7% nationally.619 said:https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/09/21/little-change-presidential-race-after-clintons-tro/
more than half of all voters thinks that trump supporters are racist0 -
More looting and violence in Charlotte - state of emergency declared by governor, national guard on the streets too. More expected tonight.
Have we seen any very recent polling for NC?0 -
More good news in car production: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37427031
A 14 year high in August. At the moment Q3 is looking pretty positive. Tearing up Osborne's legacy and plans because of some imminent crisis is going to look pretty odd by the Autumn Statement if that proves to be correct. This might narrow Hammond's room for manoeuvre. He doesn't strike me as a naturally radical chap at the best of times.0 -
I think the reason that Trump does less well in these states must be in part his anti-Mexican rhetoric, but there is more to it than that.rcs1000 said:
He's strong in the South West: places where Trump (for some reason) doesn't resonate with traditional Republicans. So: Utah, Colorado, and Arizona are the places I'd expect him to score highest. (And perhaps Nevada.)AndyJS said:
Which states is Gary Johnson strong in? I'm surprised he's on 7% nationally.619 said:https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/09/21/little-change-presidential-race-after-clintons-tro/
more than half of all voters thinks that trump supporters are racist
I think that he is too much the New York City slicker for the sunbelt. I think that he will underperform in the deep south too. The votes may not go to Clinton, but either stay at home or go to Libertarians.0 -
This looks like it should be fun:
Foreign Office Minister Alan Duncan has said his boss Boris Johnson wanted to lose the referendum and only campaigned for Brexit to become the Tory ‘heir apparent’.
Mr Duncan, who campaigned for Remain, told a BBC documentary to be broadcast on Thursday night: “I’ve always thought that Boris’s wish was to lose by one so that he could be the heir apparent without having to have all the… you know, s-h-1-t of clearing up all the mess, that’s always been my view of Boris.”
In comments recorded the day before the referendum took place, Mr Duncan predicted Remain would win by 52 to 48 per cent and said: “By championing leave, Boris can be the great heir apparent of the future, darling of the activists, but actually it would be quite good if he didn’t actually win the referendum because there would be total chaos.”
Mr Duncan has since been appointed as Minister of State at the Foreign Office, working under Mr Johnson, who was appointed Foreign Secretary by Theresa May.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/alan-duncan-boris-johnson-brexit-a-very-british-coup-backed-leave-to-become-heir-to-tory-throne-a7321406.html
Red faces all round......0 -
I read the BBC Charlotte report earlier, not sure what to make of it quite honestly. The Police claim the 43 year old refused to drop his hand gun when ordered, his family claim he was reading a book.PlatoSaid said:More looting and violence in Charlotte - state of emergency declared by governor, national guard on the streets too. More expected tonight.
[snip]
Will be interesting to see which account is more accurate once the looting has stopped.
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Does the Foreign Sec have the right to sack one of his ministers or is it the PMs job? Anything that hurts Boris is probably good for May, she may not be so bothered!CarlottaVance said:This looks like it should be fun:
Foreign Office Minister Alan Duncan has said his boss Boris Johnson wanted to lose the referendum and only campaigned for Brexit to become the Tory ‘heir apparent’.
Mr Duncan, who campaigned for Remain, told a BBC documentary to be broadcast on Thursday night: “I’ve always thought that Boris’s wish was to lose by one so that he could be the heir apparent without having to have all the… you know, s-h-1-t of clearing up all the mess, that’s always been my view of Boris.”
In comments recorded the day before the referendum took place, Mr Duncan predicted Remain would win by 52 to 48 per cent and said: “By championing leave, Boris can be the great heir apparent of the future, darling of the activists, but actually it would be quite good if he didn’t actually win the referendum because there would be total chaos.”
Mr Duncan has since been appointed as Minister of State at the Foreign Office, working under Mr Johnson, who was appointed Foreign Secretary by Theresa May.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/alan-duncan-boris-johnson-brexit-a-very-british-coup-backed-leave-to-become-heir-to-tory-throne-a7321406.html
Red faces all round......0 -
I've been on here a few times saying exactly that. I met BoJo personally a number of times in the run-up to the Ref. and that was the clear impression I got. And I got the opposite feeling from Mrs May - she was an outer saying she wanted to stay in. But that's politics for you.CarlottaVance said:This looks like it should be fun:
Foreign Office Minister Alan Duncan has said his boss Boris Johnson wanted to lose the referendum and only campaigned for Brexit to become the Tory ‘heir apparent’.
Mr Duncan, who campaigned for Remain, told a BBC documentary to be broadcast on Thursday night: “I’ve always thought that Boris’s wish was to lose by one so that he could be the heir apparent without having to have all the… you know, s-h-1-t of clearing up all the mess, that’s always been my view of Boris.”
In comments recorded the day before the referendum took place, Mr Duncan predicted Remain would win by 52 to 48 per cent and said: “By championing leave, Boris can be the great heir apparent of the future, darling of the activists, but actually it would be quite good if he didn’t actually win the referendum because there would be total chaos.”
Mr Duncan has since been appointed as Minister of State at the Foreign Office, working under Mr Johnson, who was appointed Foreign Secretary by Theresa May.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/alan-duncan-boris-johnson-brexit-a-very-british-coup-backed-leave-to-become-heir-to-tory-throne-a7321406.html
Red faces all round......0 -
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There's a picture floating about with the alleged gun on the ground.SimonStClare said:
I read the BBC Charlotte report earlier, not sure what to make of it quite honestly. The Police claim the 43 year old refused to drop his hand gun when ordered, his family claim he was reading a book.PlatoSaid said:More looting and violence in Charlotte - state of emergency declared by governor, national guard on the streets too. More expected tonight.
[snip]
Will be interesting to see which account is more accurate once the looting has stopped.0 -
If Ministers got sacked for hostages to fortune, saying foolish things, or even, telling the truth, the Cabinet would be empty in under a month.....Paristonda said:
Does the Foreign Sec have the right to sack one of his ministers or is it the PMs job? Anything that hurts Boris is probably good for May, she may not be so bothered!CarlottaVance said:This looks like it should be fun:
Foreign Office Minister Alan Duncan has said his boss Boris Johnson wanted to lose the referendum and only campaigned for Brexit to become the Tory ‘heir apparent’.
Mr Duncan, who campaigned for Remain, told a BBC documentary to be broadcast on Thursday night: “I’ve always thought that Boris’s wish was to lose by one so that he could be the heir apparent without having to have all the… you know, s-h-1-t of clearing up all the mess, that’s always been my view of Boris.”
In comments recorded the day before the referendum took place, Mr Duncan predicted Remain would win by 52 to 48 per cent and said: “By championing leave, Boris can be the great heir apparent of the future, darling of the activists, but actually it would be quite good if he didn’t actually win the referendum because there would be total chaos.”
Mr Duncan has since been appointed as Minister of State at the Foreign Office, working under Mr Johnson, who was appointed Foreign Secretary by Theresa May.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/alan-duncan-boris-johnson-brexit-a-very-british-coup-backed-leave-to-become-heir-to-tory-throne-a7321406.html
Red faces all round......
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Good morning, everyone.
Mr. Max, we can only hope the angry strangers are soothed by the free merchandise on offer by local closed shops.0 -
Sacked for same something the day before the ref is a bit steep? Especially as it is clearly true and everyone knows it.Paristonda said:
Does the Foreign Sec have the right to sack one of his ministers or is it the PMs job? Anything that hurts Boris is probably good for May, she may not be so bothered!CarlottaVance said:This looks like it should be fun:
Foreign Office Minister Alan Duncan has said his boss Boris Johnson wanted to lose the referendum and only campaigned for Brexit to become the Tory ‘heir apparent’.
Mr Duncan, who campaigned for Remain, told a BBC documentary to be broadcast on Thursday night: “I’ve always thought that Boris’s wish was to lose by one so that he could be the heir apparent without having to have all the… you know, s-h-1-t of clearing up all the mess, that’s always been my view of Boris.”
In comments recorded the day before the referendum took place, Mr Duncan predicted Remain would win by 52 to 48 per cent and said: “By championing leave, Boris can be the great heir apparent of the future, darling of the activists, but actually it would be quite good if he didn’t actually win the referendum because there would be total chaos.”
Mr Duncan has since been appointed as Minister of State at the Foreign Office, working under Mr Johnson, who was appointed Foreign Secretary by Theresa May.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/alan-duncan-boris-johnson-brexit-a-very-british-coup-backed-leave-to-become-heir-to-tory-throne-a7321406.html
Red faces all round......
The oddity is why Boris didn't make a gaffe half way through that 'accidentally' blew the campaign. Something like blurting out that the £350m was a load of wiff-waff piffle or some such. He could have laughed his cock up off as per usual and just undermined the vote enough to get his perfect solution.0 -
All playing into Trump's hands though surely? Chaos on the streets. It's a war out there folks etc etc. All as he said in his big speech at convention.SimonStClare said:
I read the BBC Charlotte report earlier, not sure what to make of it quite honestly. The Police claim the 43 year old refused to drop his hand gun when ordered, his family claim he was reading a book.PlatoSaid said:More looting and violence in Charlotte - state of emergency declared by governor, national guard on the streets too. More expected tonight.
[snip]
Will be interesting to see which account is more accurate once the looting has stopped.0 -
Not sure your Maths works out?Philip_Thompson said:
It is the law that stands in the dock and any references to it being an Alan Turing Law is just because he was a high profile victim and is like referring to Megan's Law.CarlottaVance said:Not sure how I feel about this:
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-37436417
Clearly the law in the fifties was wrong - but surely it is that law that now stands in the dock, not Alan Turing?
Yes, it was wrong to persecute gay men - and for those still alive, if it helps, then great - but it feels a bit like virtue signalling - like the slavery issue - where critics generally forget that slavery was a major African trade and it was the Royal Navy which destroyed the then global slave trade......better to spend time improving the lives of the living - like current slavery.....
Whether it was a bad proposal or otherwise was one thing during the election campaign, but as it was a manifesto commitment it is surely only right that the law is changed now rather than renege on a manifesto commitment?
As for comparisons with the slave trade and modern day virtue signalling the key difference between the two cases is that there are people alive today who were affected by the law in the 50s. Either the actual direct victims, or the children/grandchildren of the victims of the 50s law.
On the other hand the UK abolished slavery in 1833. Not only is no former slave alive today, there is probably not a single great, great grandchild of a former slave alive today.
If you were 70 today, and your father and grandfather were 30 years old when their son was born... then your grandfather would have been born in 1886.
You're easily into that territory if you add another couple of generations.
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CNN without any evidence suggests it's a drop gun. I watched a bit of their coverage this morning - jeez it's crap.MaxPB said:
There's a picture floating about with the alleged gun on the ground.SimonStClare said:
I read the BBC Charlotte report earlier, not sure what to make of it quite honestly. The Police claim the 43 year old refused to drop his hand gun when ordered, his family claim he was reading a book.PlatoSaid said:More looting and violence in Charlotte - state of emergency declared by governor, national guard on the streets too. More expected tonight.
[snip]
Will be interesting to see which account is more accurate once the looting has stopped.0 -
No, but it's just that we have the SAME debate every day about his, and today you happened to have started it particularly early. At least the newspapers have the excuse of empty pages to fill. Otherwise there really isn't any point in trying to claim either disaster or success for something that hasn't happened yet and where the oil-tanker nature of the economy is such that the truth won't be evident until a year or two after it has, anyway. I know it's frustrating for both blinkered leavers and remainers eager to claim the prize, but we'll all just have to be patient. At least until someone starts the same debate based on some spurious piece of non-evidence tomorrow. Meanwhile we would all be better off debating AV.CarlottaVance said:
Since consumer confidence (and spending) plays a critical part in how the economy performs the mis-direction by Osborne with his 'punishment budget' (quickly scrapped) before the referendum could easily have turned into a self fulfilling prophesy.IanB2 said:
Yawn....CarlottaVance said:
On reflection - it was a 'Shock' to the Commentariat - but not the consumer, who, after all, voted for it......CarlottaVance said:The Guardian's front page lead:
UK economy defies gloom after EU shock
I recall reading of the reaction in Britain after the fall of France in WWII - despite, supposedly, the world's mightiest army - shock - but a certain grim determination that things would be simpler if it was 'just us' (and a quarter of the world in the Empire as we 'stood alone'....)
Fortunately for all concerned, the British voter saw through that......
Anyone might think bitter Remainers are disappointed the economy hasn't tanked..as Osborne predicted.......0 -
Far to much speculation.PlatoSaid said:
CNN without any evidence suggests it's a drop gun. I watched a bit of their coverage this morning - jeez it's crap.MaxPB said:
There's a picture floating about with the alleged gun on the ground.SimonStClare said:
I read the BBC Charlotte report earlier, not sure what to make of it quite honestly. The Police claim the 43 year old refused to drop his hand gun when ordered, his family claim he was reading a book.PlatoSaid said:More looting and violence in Charlotte - state of emergency declared by governor, national guard on the streets too. More expected tonight.
[snip]
Will be interesting to see which account is more accurate once the looting has stopped.0 -
Nevada though has a few wealthy New York retirees who have moved to the sunbelt and Trump has a hotel in Lad Vegas. Trump is ahead in Nevada in the latest Fox poll and with RCPfoxinsoxuk said:
I think the reason that Trump does less well in these states must be in part his anti-Mexican rhetoric, but there is more to it than that.rcs1000 said:
He's strong in the South West: places where Trump (for some reason) doesn't resonate with traditional Republicans. So: Utah, Colorado, and Arizona are the places I'd expect him to score highest. (And perhaps Nevada.)AndyJS said:
Which states is Gary Johnson strong in? I'm surprised he's on 7% nationally.619 said:https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/09/21/little-change-presidential-race-after-clintons-tro/
more than half of all voters thinks that trump supporters are racist
I think that he is too much the New York City slicker for the sunbelt. I think that he will underperform in the deep south too. The votes may not go to Clinton, but either stay at home or go to Libertarians.0
